The Daily Briefing Wednesday, September 9, 2026

AROUND THE NFL

Andrew Marchand of The Athletic offers some 2026 storylines in NFL TV, starting with Tony Romo: CBS announced in a press release that Tony Romo was on leave “until further notice.” Romo posted on Instagram that he has turned his attention to “my health, my family and, in time, my return to CBS.” After pleading no contest to his OWI (operating while intoxicated) from his arrest in July in Wisconsin, Romo lost his driving privileges for six months. Is his job next? Romo has $72 million and four years left on his contract. His .15 blood alcohol level was nearly twice the legal limit in Wisconsin. The arrest videos are memes-waiting-to-happen. Add this to the fact that Romo has not been a very good analyst for a few seasons, and it feels as if CBS Sports may decide it is time to break up over irreconcilable differences. Romo signed a 10-year, $180 million deal in 2020 because of a lot of reasons, starting with his strong performance during his rookie TV contract that was for 3 years/$10 million. Romo had perfect timing with ESPN’s Monday Night “Booger Mobile” booth mayhem and the NFL’s renewal negotiations on deck. Romo had options, and CBS had no alternatives. Romo and Jim Nantz were supposed to be a modern-day Pat Summerall and John Madden. They would call the AFC Championship every year, where around 50 million or so viewers watch, and, when CBS had the Super Bowl, they would be the soundtrack for 120 million fans, give or take. Romo and Nantz went in reverse and, in the wake of Romo’s arrest, does CBS want Romo as one of the faces of its coverage? CBS has already moved on, promoting likely future Hall of Famer J.J. Watt to team with Nantz on its No. 1 team, while moving Ross Tucker to pair with Watt’s former partner, Ian Eagle. Romo, 46, is not known as the most diligent worker. CBS has tried to coerce him to put more time into the broadcasting craft. And so the public will focus on just the arrest, but the entire history of the CBS/Romo relationship matters. Maybe the two sides can come together and find a solution. Having Eagle, the master of getting the most out of his partners, try and resuscitate Romo’s career in the No. 2 role is intriguing, though unlikely. The idea of returning Romo to the No. 1 team seems far-fetched at the moment. What feels on the horizon is the use of the morals clause and other language in Romo’s contract to try to reach a settlement on the final $72 million on his contract. It could end up in a legal fight to determine how much Romo will receive to leave. Nantz and Romo have had an uncle-nephew relationship on the air – generationally, they are just not in sync. The duo has faded the same way Nantz and his previous NFL partner, Phil Simms, did at the end of their run. Watt will have every opportunity to earn the No. 1 game analyst job. He did very well with Eagle last season. Until there is a resolution, Romo’s return — or non-return — will be the most interesting media storyline of the NFL season. There are many other huge media stories around the NFL this season. Let’s go through some of what we will be watching. Tomlin TVMike Tomlin has long been on the top of TV executives’ future lists as an on-air personality. The future is now as the Tomlin Sweepstakes never really materialized. Fox stood back, ESPN for some reason didn’t want in and NBC stepped up. Tomlin makes his regular-season TV debut on the 2026 opening-night Super Bowl rematch between the Seahawks and Patriots. NBC has slimmed down its pregame show as Tony Dungy, Rodney Harrison and Chris Simms are among those gone. Still led by Maria Taylor, it will take its show on the road every week for the first time. ESPN’s Super BowlBecause of its prominence in sports, ESPN sometimes feels like a punching bag. However, it is a seminal moment as the upstart media company that launched in 1979 will host its first Super Bowl. It will be simulcast on ABC and probably 30 other places (ESPN Ocho, anyone!), but it is going to be a big deal with Joe Buck and Troy Aikman on the main call. The promotion (and Disney-wide cross-promotion) began shortly after the Super Bowl concluded last February, and don’t expect it to slow down before the game kicks off on Valentine’s Day. Netflix’s expanded scheduleNetflix will have five games, as it won a sweepstakes for the NFL’s extra games this year. It continues with its Christmas Day doubleheader. It will host brand-new inventory with the NFL, airing a Wednesday game the night before Thanksgiving. It kicks off its season Thursday from Australia for the Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers. New Hall of Famer Luke Kuechly will be in the booth as Netflix’s No. 1 analyst next to Noah Eagle. Announcer carousel?This could be the story of the next offseason, as it was in 2022 when Buck and Aikman left Fox for ESPN. Fox responded by signing Tom Brady to that mega-contract, while newcomer Amazon Prime Video picked up Al Michaels. Prime Video teamed Michaels with ESPN’s college football stalwart, Kirk Herbstreit. Buck, Aikman, Michaels and Herbstreit all have contracts that are expiring. Eagle and Fox’s Greg Olsen also have contracts that will be up. Add the Romo-Watt dynamic into it all. And, what if Travis Kelce retires or Sean McVay decides he doesn’t want to coach anymore? Let the negotiations begin. McAfee Night FootballESPN has become Pat McAfee here, Pat McAfee there, Pat McAfee everywhere. He will be all over NFL screens this year. Adding to his daily ESPN show and “College GameDay,” McAfee will be a regular on “Monday Night Countdown.” With McAfee becoming the dominant personality on “College GameDay,” the dynamic to watch is how he meshes with his colleagues on Monday nights. McAfee may also have his own alt-cast on some Monday nights. If McAfee’s alt-cast goes through, it is expected to be on non-Peyton and Eli “ManningCast” dates. Under the radarESPN changed its No. 2 NFL teams, as it will have Dave Pasch, Jason Kelce and Kurt Warner do games; Bob Wischusen and Louis Riddick will call other games. Some of the games will be on NFL Network, which is now owned by ESPN. ESPN’s former No. 2 team was Chris Fowler, Dan Orlovsky and Riddick, while NFL Network had Warner paired with Rich Eisen. Lucas Widman of the New York Post reports that Dianna Russini will save her side of the story of her departure from The Athletic for her new employer – and a “source” that sounds a lot like Russini (or her agent) says she does indeed have many outlets anxious to hear her voice. Dianna Russini will return to work this NFL season, but not without addressing the elephant in the room first. A source familiar with the situation told Page Six this week that the former Athletic journalist, who resigned from her position in April amid an investigation into her relationship with New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel, will share her side of the scandal upon taking her next job. Russini, 43, hopes to speak on the matter and move past it once and for all, the source added. The exact timeline for her comeback remains unclear, but a debut by the start of Week 1 — which kicks off Wednesday night with a Super Bowl LX rematch between the Seattle Seahawks and Vrabel’s Patriots — is unlikely. The source noted that Russini continues to mull offers from several outlets, and it’s possible she accepts more than one gig. Russini, the source continued, was inundated with interview requests from major networks, podcasts and even reality television shows as the scandal unfolded, but she rejected them all in favor of speaking on her own terms at the right time. As for how Russini will be received within the league, the source was adamant that most NFL owners, coaches, staffers and players have been supportive and pulling for her return.

NFC SOUTH

TAMPA BAYOn the eve of the season, QB BAKER MAYFIELD’s contract problems vanish.  Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times: So much for the deadline. Baker Mayfield has a new deal. The Bucs quarterback, who had said he would not negotiate a contract extension after reporting to training camp, reached an agreement on a three-year extension with the team Tuesday. Bucs general manager Jason Licht and assistant general manager Mike Greenberg reached out to Mayfield’s agent, Tom Mills, over the weekend. The contract is worth $165 million, locking up the Bucs’ franchise quarterback through the 2029 season just five days before the regular-season opener at Cincinnati. He is now the highest-paid player in Bucs history. However, the third year is not guaranteed. But with the $40 million he will earn this year, he has $150 million in guarantees over the next three seasons. It’s the third contract signed with the Bucs by Mayfield, who joined the team in 2023 on a one-year, $4 million prove-it deal to compete with Kyle Trask. After leading the Bucs to an NFC South title, he agreed to a three-year, $100 million extension that was set to end after the 2026 season. Faced with the daunting task of following Tom Brady to the Bucs, Mayfield led his team to two NFC South titles and a postseason victory while earning a pair of Pro Bowl selections during his three seasons in Tampa Bay. He set the club’s single-season records for completion percentage (71.4%) and passer rating (106.8) in 2024. He also ranks third in passing touchdowns (95), sixth in completions (1,114) and seventh in passing yards (12,237) with the Bucs. He is the only quarterback in club history to be selected to multiple Pro Bowls. “From the moment Baker arrived, he brought a belief and competitive edge that has had a tremendous impact on our football team,” Licht said in a statement. “He has earned the respect of everyone in our building with the way he prepares, competes and holds himself accountable. “His toughness and ability to deliver in big moments are a big part of what makes him special, but what really stands out is the leadership he brings every day. Baker is the heartbeat of this team, and we feel incredibly fortunate to have a quarterback and leader like him.” Mayfield set a self-imposed deadline for the start of training camp to reach a long-term extension. When that didn’t happen by the time the Bucs reported, he said he felt “disrespected” and “undervalued” by the club. He stood before his teammates in a meeting and told them that despite the impasse, he was “all in” for the 2026 season. Mayfield told the Tampa Bay Times last month that the reason for the self-imposed deadline was to prevent the topic from becoming a distraction to his teammates. “One, I did it for head space. I think I would’ve been fine regardless,” he said. “But I didn’t want that lingering. Also, I didn’t want it lingering over the team and I didn’t want that to be the daily topic. “With how we finished last year compared to what our goals and aspirations are, I don’t want that to be the daily thing that’s always looming knowing that we have a really good chance to kind of fly under the radar the first part of the season and be really, really good.” The deal averages $55 million per year. Only the Cowboys’ Dak Prescott and the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes will earn more among NFL quarterbacks. The Rams’ Matthew Stafford, Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence, Bills’ Josh Allen, Bengals’ Joe Burrow and Packers’ Jordan Love all make the same average salary as Mayfield under his new contract. As the DB understands it, having the third year in the contract was important to Mayfield, and that is the major difference between this deal and the one previously discussed when negotiations broke off.  But as noted, that third year is not guaranteed.

NFC WEST

LOS ANGELES RAMSDT AARON DONALD will not play tomorrow night/Friday morning in Melbourne.  He won’t even be subjected to the travel.  Nate Atkins of The Athletic: Aaron Donald’s comeback tour won’t include a trip to Australia. The Los Angeles Rams star defensive tackle will not be joining the team for its Week 1 game against the San Francisco 49ers in Melbourne, the NFL’s first game in Australia, coach Sean McVay announced on Tuesday. On the 49ers not having to face Donald in the season opener, coach Kyle Shanahan said, “I’ve never been more excited to be wrong about something.” The Rams’ decision is about Donald’s long-term viability and what such an early overseas trip, with a long flight and a 17-hour time difference, will do to his comeback efforts. Donald, 35, has spent his time since his official return on Aug. 30 ramping back up into football shape after two years of retirement, and he won’t quite be ready to take on such a challenging road trip to start the season. “I’m feeling good, feeling really good,” Donald said Monday on the possibility of playing. … “Honestly, I really do feel good. Like I said, things are clicking faster than what I thought it would be.”– – –It remains to be seen exactly when Donald will return to game action, but it could be as early as the team’s Week 2 matchup against the New York Giants. That game is on “Monday Night Football” and at SoFi Stadium, where Donald helped lead the Rams to a Super Bowl victory in the 2021 season. Oh, the 17-hour difference!  Almost like the actual game is nothing to worry about. A reminder, the Rams are now enroute to Melbourne (Wednesday US).  A little more on their travel from Michael Duarte of the New York Post: Late on Tuesday, somewhere over the Pacific Ocean, the Rams will attempt to pull off their most ambitious play of the season well before coach Sean McVay ever calls one. The strategy seems simple: Fly nearly 16 hours to Australia, cross the international dateline, land in Melbourne on Thursday (local time), check into the hotel, go to sleep, wake up and play an NFL game. Meanwhile, their opponent, the 49ers, have already been on the ground in Melbourne for days, acclimating to the time change. The Rams are deliberately doing the opposite. Only one of these strategies will prevail. McVay and the Rams chose to remain in Los Angeles as long as possible before departing late Tuesday for their season opener against their longtime NFC West rivals at the historic Melbourne Cricket Ground at 10:35 a.m. on Friday (local time), 5:35 p.m. PT on Thursday. The Rams’ theory is an assault on jet lag: Don’t give the body enough time to realize where it is. “We’ll sleep through the night, and then we’ll get there and have kind of a rhythm,” McVay said before practice Sunday. There is at least one significant perk. This won’t be 53 football players attempting to sleep upright in economy. “They’ve got full lay-flat beds,” McVay said. “All of our players have that.” The massive charter will allow everyone to fully stretch out and sleep, an important component of a travel strategy developed with the Rams’ sports medicine and performance staff. McVay said the organization also consulted people from other sports and others experienced with similar long-distance travel. “It’s about keeping guys in their normal rhythm and routine,” McVay said. “Everything that we do, I would hope our guys know that everything we do is what we think is best.”

SAN FRANCISCOThe Rams were talking about all the stuff they had to bring to Australia.  Apparently the 49ers brought their power station.  Ryan Young of YahooSports.com: The San Francisco 49ers will be without a key piece to their defensive front this season after all. Alfred Collins will miss the entire 2026 campaign after he went down with a torn patellar tendon in his knee this week in Melbourne, head coach Kyle Shanahan confirmed on Wednesday. Specifics of the injury aren’t yet known, but he is now done for the year. The 49ers selected Collins with the No. 43 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft out of Texas, and he had a solid rookie campaign rotating through the defensive line. He had 17 total tackles and a sack, and recovered two fumbles, during his first season in the league.

SEATTLEBrady Henderson of ESPN.com on how John Schneider re-calibrated the Seahawks for a run at a repeat, with an assist from Bucs GM Jason Licht: ‘This league is about making hard decisions’When the dust settled on the Seahawks’ 29-13 win over the Patriots at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California, general manager John Schneider commemorated the title by adding to his collection of arm tattoos. The new ink on the crease of his right elbow includes the letters LX underneath the Golden Gate Bridge. In the same spot on his left elbow are the letters XLVIII underneath the New York City skyline, which is near where the Seahawks claimed their first Lombardi trophy at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, 12 years earlier. Schneider is the only GM in NFL history to win two Super Bowls with different head coaches and none of the same players. His 2014 Seahawks came within a yard of repeating as champions after an offseason in which their roster took significantly more hits than the current one just did. Schneider has been here before. But he still needed to hear something that his close friend and Tampa Bay Buccaneers counterpart Jason Licht told him over a late-night dinner at this year’s NFL combine in Indianapolis. Schneider said Licht reminded him that you can’t make emotional decisions while trying to keep a Super Bowl-winning team intact. A few days later, Seattle said goodbye to Walker as he agreed to a three-year, $43.05 million deal with the Kansas City Chiefs at the start of the free agency negotiating window. Three other key players would follow: outside linebacker Boye Mafe (three years, $60 million with the Cincinnati Bengals), safety Coby Bryant (three years, $40 million with the Chicago Bears) and Woolen (one year, $12 million with the Philadelphia Eagles). Taking Licht’s reminder to heart wasn’t easy. But it was necessary, especially with megadeals coming down the pike for wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($42.15 million per season in new money), cornerback Devon Witherspoon ($33 million) and defensive tackle Leonard Williams ($30 million), who all signed extensions this offseason. “Obviously we’re going to miss those guys, but you’ve got to keep moving forward,” Schneider said on Seattle Sports 710 AM before the Seahawks’ first preseason game. “To get all those [other] guys back was a big deal for us. This league is about making hard decisions after every season, and this is no different whether you win a world championship or don’t.” The Seahawks re-signed a pair of starters in wide receiver Rashid Shaheed and cornerback Josh Jobe, as well as every notable backup save for special teamer Dareke Young. With no salary cap casualties — Seattle has a league-low $2.33 million in dead money charges for 2026, per OverTheCap — Schneider and vice president of player administration Joey Laine brought back all but six of their 52 players who played at least 100 combined snaps (including special teams) during the regular season and playoffs. By comparison, the 2014 Seahawks lost 13 of the 48 players who met that playing-time threshold the year before. “It was more than I anticipated looking back,” Schneider said. “That’s a credit to the coaches and Joey Laine and our personnel staff in terms of guys wanting to be here and just keeping as many guys as we possibly can.” Having seen the Seahawks’ locker room gradually lose its edge in the later years of the Legion of Boom era, Schneider approached April’s draft with an eye for competitors. Seattle’s eight-man class was headlined by top pick Jadarian Price, whom the Seahawks hope can replicate some of Walker’s explosiveness. He’ll lead their backfield while Zach Charbonnet spends at least the first four games on the physically unable to perform list following ACL surgery. Second-round safety Bud Clark was supposed to push Ty Okada for Bryant’s old starting job, but he’s out for the season with a broken ankle. Third-round cornerback Julian Neal missed much of camp with a quad injury that has kept him from factoring in the battle to replace Woolen as CB3, which had looked like perhaps the only potential weak point of a defense that allowed the fewest points in the NFL last season. Safety, however, has become another early-season concern, with Okada sidelined with a hamstring injury and Emmanwori taking longer than expected to return from July right ankle surgery. Between their injury issues and free agent departures, the Seahawks could have their work cut out for them as they try to recapture their defensive dominance of 2025. But with much of the unit entering Year 3 in Macdonald’s scheme, familiarity will be an asset. “There’s a lot of continuity in the players that we have, so it allows a kind of unspoken, at times, understanding of what we’re doing and why we’re trying to do something,” defensive coordinator Aden Durde said. While the Seahawks lost established talent on defense, the rival Rams added it in a big way. Bringing future Hall of Fame defensive tackle Aaron Donald out of retirement capped an offseason in which Los Angeles also acquired All-Pro defensive end Myles Garrett as well as cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson. The two teams played three nail-biters last season, with the Seahawks winning the rubber match at home in the NFC Championship Game. But now, DraftKings gives the Rams the best odds to win the NFC West at -105 (ahead of Seattle at +215) and Super Bowl LX at +500 (Seattle is fourth at +1200). “I’d be lying if I said there wasn’t a little extra motivation from hearing that type of stuff,” Williams said. “There’s extra chips on our shoulders. We just came off of a Super Bowl-winning season. People are still giving other people favorites over us. But at the same time, it’s always about us, it’s about our process. I think that is still adding fuel to the fire for guys. At the same time, we’re going to stick to our process regardless of what other people outside may think.”

AFC NORTH

CLEVELANDClevelanders love Cleveland.  TE TRAVIS KELCE bought a big house there recently and Browns CB DENZEL WARD signals his long term commitment to his home area by buying part of the Guardians.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com: Browns cornerback Denzel Ward signed a two-year contract extension this offseason and he’s investing some of that money in another one of the city’s sports teams. According to multiple reports, Ward has purchased a stake in the Cleveland Guardians. The Guardians are owned by Paul Dolan and David Blitzer with Blitzer in position to become the team’s majority owner in the coming years. Ward is not the only NFL player with a stake in the Guardians. Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is also a minority shareholder in the club and both players attended this year’s home opener in Blitzer’s suite. Ward grew up outside of Cleveland and has spent his entire NFL career with the Browns. The investment in the Guardians suggests he’ll remain tied to the city beyond his playing career as well.

PITTSBURGHWR DK METCALF and QB AARON RODGERS have quite the bond.  Predictable spin from Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com: When you add a 42-year-old quarterback with opinions that straddle the line between “outside the box” and “f—kin’ nutty” into a room full of twentysomethings, interesting things can happen. Case in point, Steelers receiver DK Metcalf now believes that there’s a civilization living inside the earth. He also believes Antarctica is “another world.” “Yeah, I’m a big conspiracy theorist,” Metcalf recently told Jonathan Jones of The Athletic. “Shout out to my quarterback.” He’s talking about Aaron Rodgers, the de facto king of NFL conspiracy theories. “You can go to Alaska. You could go to the North Pole,” Metcalf said. “But why not Antarctica? Why can’t you just book a trip to Antarctica?” Metcalf also believes that the world’s leaders gather from time to time in Antarctica. But Metcalf’s tendency toward conspiracy theories predated his time with Aaron Rodgers, who along with Metcalf joined the Steelers in 2025. “I’ve been on it,” Metcalf told Jones. “But it just so happened that we can bond over it.” The article doesn’t address whether Metcalf and Rodgers bonded over any specific conspiracy theories that have been attributed to Rodgers, including whether 9/11 was real and possibly that Sandy Hook was an inside job. In fairness to Rodgers, he has strongly denied ever espousing that Sandy Hook was anything other than an authentic tragedy.  Some would say that this pronouncement from Rodgers is not tethered to reality, but we admire his spirit.  Kevin Patra of NFL.com: Aaron Rodgers returned to Pittsburgh this spring for a 22nd NFL season, convinced he can cap off a Hall of Fame career with a second Super Bowl victory. Asked recently by Adam Schein on Mad Dog Sports Radio if the Steelers are among eight to 12 teams with a realistic shot to make it to Super Bowl weekend, Rodgers responded confidently. “Yeah, of course. Of course. That’s why I came back, because I believe in the guys,” Rodgers said. The 42-year-old then listed off his reasoning, starting with Pittsburgh’s additions on defense, namely Jaquan Brisker and Jamel Dean, to pair with a stellar front. Rodgers also noted the upside of the young offensive line and weapons brought in. The QB even praised the specialist crew, highlighting his belief that top-to-bottom the Steelers can compete with anyone. “I like the roster as a whole,” Rodgers said. “We have good veteran leadership. It’s just about going out there and doing it. I feel like the AFC is very deep. Even our own division has a number of teams with Super Bowl aspirations, which is great.” The Steelers’ veteran roster could put it over the top in a crowded AFC. However, much of that opportunity will come down to how the quadragenarian quarterback plays.

THIS AND THAT

THE DB’s PICKSIn our stab at prognostication, some things we believe. 1 – Last year, we identified the Patriots as a team poised for improvement due to better coaching, a promising second year QB, some other young talent and an easy schedule.  We were not anticipating 14-3 and a Super Bowl though. This year, we note five “bad” teams that have reasons for optimism due to some combination of the above. The Giants mirror the Patriots the most, but their division is tough. If somehow Cleveland gets the play at QB, they have a good collection of young talent The Raiders have really improved their base, they could/should have good quarterbacking but their division is brutal. And we note that the Jets are doing a lot of good things. And maybe, the above reasons for hope apply to the Titans if CAM WARD comes along. So lets say one or two of those teams makes the playoff as a Wild Card, with the Giants the most likely. 2 – The race for the number one pick seems to be between Miami and Arizona.  The Cardinals actually have some talent, but the division and rest of schedule are brutal. Of the teams higher up the conventional pecking order, the DB is starting to think that the Commanders might not be very good this season.   3 – We are reluctantly going with the chalk in the NFC.  The Rams and Seahawks were basically even through three close games last year, two won by Seattle.  The Seahawks are still good, the Rams should have improved, especially on defense. We like some other teams elsewhere in the conference, but we have to go with the team forged in the NFC West – where the 49ers could be a top seven team in the NFL and 3rdin the league. So the Rams to win the NFC with the other playoff teams being Dallas, Detroit, Tampa Bay as division champs and Seattle, the Giants and Philadelphia as Wild Cards (but any of the NFC North teams, especially Green Bay, could fit in here). 4 – In the AFC, we favor the two great defenses at Houston and Denver.  If BO NIX plays better than C.J. STROUD, let’s give Denver the AFC.   The Patriots will stay ahead of the Bills in the AFC East.  Kansas City will be better, but not good enough. Playoff teams are Denver, Houston, New England and Pittsburgh as division champs.  Wild cards are tough – but we’ll go with Chargers, Buffalo and Cincinnati.   5 – Rams win a tight Super Bowl over Denver. Not that we need reinforcement, but Conner Orr of SI.com sees things pretty much the way the DB does at the top of his preseason ratings: 1. Los Angeles RamsThe great Tony Kornheiser of Pardon the Interruption correctly noted that not a single team reaching +500 Super Bowl odds preseason has gone on to win the game. As Aaron Donald’s return catapults Rams hype to another level, this turns into a case of both load management and the management of expectations just as much as it is another slate of 17-plus games where Sean McVay must be a brilliant play-caller and level-headed game manager. Who said pressure was a privilege? 2. Seattle SeahawksA typical case of reigning champion disrespect after another team—one that lost to the Seahawks in the NFC title game—had a shinier offseason. As I’ve said at many points this offseason, it’s not what Seattle is that we have to fear. It’s the players who are still developing that didn’t really play a part in the 2025 season that opponents have to worry about.  3. Houston TexansMy prospective Super Bowl champion begins the season at No. 3. No team on this list is infallible, and Houston’s skill-position injuries are mounting at a less-than-ideal time. I still think the Texans don’t need much from the offense; just an efficient running game and a managerial attitude when the defense isn’t destroying people. Too simplistic? Maybe, but OC Nick Caley called a better offense in 2025 than he was given credit for.  4. Denver BroncosDavis Webb was born to be an NFL play-caller, and pairing the ascending Bo Nix with a devoted QB whisperer and an enhanced set of offensive weapons should take the Broncos to the next level. The path is certainly more difficult, but this team is built the right way: through the lines and at the defensive back position.

BILL BARNWELL’S PLAYOFF PREDICTIONSThoughtful, detailed (and perhaps edited for space) – here is the prediction of Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com for how 2026 plays out.  But he sets himself some constraints based on history: It’s postseason projection time. With hours to go before the first game of the 2026 NFL season, I’m picking the 14 teams that will be celebrating after the league plays 272 regular-season games. There’s so much football to come and so many unexpected things we’ll see along the way, but like anyone else, I want to lay out the playoff field I expect to see in January before the games kick off in mid-September. Of course, that would be too easy. If you’ve read this column over the past couple of years, you’ll remember that there’s a twist. One of the most common mistakes we make as football fans — myself included — is overconfidence in the teams we saw excel last year. We’re collectively too inclined to pick teams that made the playoffs a year ago to make it back in the current season. Ask me to pick 2026 playoff teams without any constraints and I’d pick at least nine of the 14 teams that made it in 2025. History tells us that’s underestimating the chaos and variance that comes with 17-game NFL seasons. The league has been using the 14-team playoff format for only a few years now, but if we go back to 2002 and treat the seventh-best team in each conference as a playoff team, about 56% of teams that make it to the postseason in any given season make it back the following year. That’s just under eight teams per campaign. Eight teams in, six teams out. There’s no guarantee that 2026 will play out like an average season in terms of playoff returnees, but the evidence says our playoff predictions should start there. I’ll take things a step further by looking at division champions and teams with losing records in 2025 to tailor the field even closer to what a historic playoff field typically looks like by the end of the regular season. I’ll detail how those play out along the way. And at the end, I’ll make my Super Bowl pick for the upcoming season. Which 2025 division champions will return to the playoffs?Let’s start by splitting last season’s playoff teams into two groups. Since 2002, just under 60% of teams that won their division in a given year have made it back to the playoffs the following year. That’s 4.8 teams per year, which we’ll round up to five. So, of the eight division winners from 2025, I have to pick five to return to the playoffs in 2026. We can split that even further. About 43% of division winners repeat as champs the following season, with teams such as the Tom Brady-era Patriots and the Patrick Mahomes-era Chiefs as near-perennial favorites to finish first. If we remove the Patriots and Chiefs from the data set, the rate of repeating divisional winners drops to 36%. That’s an average of about three division winners retaining their titles each season. One of the weirdest things about the 2025 season factors in here. In 2024, six of the eight teams that won their division the prior year retained their crowns, which was just the third time that has happened in the eight-division era. In 2025, everything went in the opposite direction. Just one of the eight reigning champs held on to its division title for another year. The one team that did so was the Philadelphia Eagles, who became the first team to win back-to-back titles in the NFC East in more than two decades. Four 2024 division champs — the Chiefs, Ravens, Lions and Buccaneers — missed the postseason outright in 2025. History tells us to pick three division winners to repeat as champions, with two more making it back to the postseason as wild cards. I’ll then be left with three division winners from 2025 that I’ll need to pick to miss the playoffs entirely. I’m sure that won’t upset anyone … Running through my options, I’m already beginning to squirm. I’m not sure there are three division winners with good chances of repeating in 2026. I like some of last season’s wild-card teams more than the division winners. If this were just “pick eight playoff teams to repeat,” I might have five division winners missing the playoffs. This is why I like doing this column in this very particular way — it forces me to think about choices I don’t necessarily love but that might turn out to be more realistic as the season plays out in the months to come. Seattle SeahawksMy pick for 2026: In the playoffs (NFC West champions)It feels almost controversial to pick the defending Super Bowl champions to stay atop the NFC West for another year. It’s easy to understand why the Rams are favorites to top the Seahawks and return to the top of the division; they added Myles Garrett, Aaron Donald, Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson to their roster this offseason. But the Seahawks did beat the Rams twice in three tries last season. They went 14-3, finishing two games ahead of Los Angeles in the race for the NFC West, and led the league in DVOA. Sure, the Seahawks were one of the league’s healthier teams, especially on offense, but they also outscored opposing teams by more than 11 points per game and went a sustainable 4-3 in games decided by seven points or less. The champs lost several players on defense (Coby Bryant, Riq Woolen and Boye Mafe among them), but coach Mike Macdonald has a significant track record of developing both young players and underappreciated veterans into useful contributors on the defensive side of the ball. And virtually everybody of note beyond Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III is back on offense. It would be a surprise if the Seahawks weren’t competing for a division title this season. Philadelphia EaglesMy pick for 2026: In the playoffs (NFC East champions)If the Eagles were able to overcome what had been a multi-decade run of new champions in the NFC East to finally hold on to their division crown, I’m willing to back Jalen Hurts & Co. to make it three straight in 2026. Things didn’t end well for the Eagles in 2025, as they lost four of their final seven games before being bounced out of the playoffs by the 49ers, but you might remember the Eagles going through a similar scenario in 2023. They started 10-1, lost five of their last six games and were then blown out by the Bucs in the wild-card round. Yet Philly won the division the following season — and also won the Super Bowl. The Eagles weren’t great on offense, but things really began to crater once they lost star right tackle Lane Johnson in November. The 36-year-old is back as part of what should be a healthier offensive line. Vic Fangio fielded the youngest defense in the league last season, and that unit could be even more productive after adding Riq Woolen and Jonathan Greenard to the mix during the offseason. Sean Mannion’s new under-center offensive scheme creates some uncertainty, but the Eagles have one of the highest floors of any team in the NFL. New England PatriotsMy pick for 2026: In the playoffs (AFC East champions)I’ve already written about why I don’t expect the Patriots to win 14 games again, which shouldn’t be any sort of significant surprise. (It’s hard to win 14 games twice in a row!) Even with a bit of a step backward, though, the Patriots could still hold on to their AFC East title with something like an 11-win campaign. Their schedule is tougher, but it’s still the 11th-easiest slate in the league per ESPN’s Football Power Index. They’ll probably suffer more injuries after being one of the healthiest teams a year ago, but unless stars such as Drake Maye, Christian Gonzalez and A.J. Brown miss significant time, the Patriots should still have plenty of talent. And if the blitz-happy defensive scheme that helped sustain the Patriots as their offense struggled during the AFC playoffs carries over into 2026, the Pats might actually be a better team on a snap-by-snap basis than they were in 2025 — even if that doesn’t produce a similar win-loss record as a product of playing stiffer competition. Denver BroncosMy pick for 2026: In the playoffs (AFC wild card)Likewise, although I expect the Broncos to decline after a banner 2025 campaign, there’s still plenty of room for them to do so and still make it back to the postseason for the third consecutive year. Denver won the AFC West by three games last season. The team’s 24-10 record since the start of 2024 is tied for the third best in the NFL, one game behind the Bills and Eagles. The Broncos were very healthy last season, but it’s notable that they were able to overcome a 3½-game stretch without Pat Surtain II, winning all four of those games. And while Bo Nix still had issues with consistency and accuracy, he jumped from 18th in Total QBR over the first half of the season to 11th over the remainder of the regular season and postseason. If coach Sean Payton can coax out the version of Nix we saw outduel Josh Allen in a playoff shootout more often in 2026, could the Broncos be the most complete team in football? Pittsburgh SteelersMy pick for 2026: In the playoffs (AFC wild card)We’ll see just how thoroughly the Steelers are impacted by the departure of Mike Tomlin. Mike McCarthy should offer an offensive coaching upgrade for a team that hasn’t really ever replaced Bruce Arians. McCarthy isn’t exactly the analytics wizard that his initial news conferences in Dallas suggested, but the Steelers were way behind the curve in terms of game management by the time Tomlin finished his run in Pittsburgh. A more modern approach might help the Steelers squeeze more out of their roster. I’m not optimistic about Aaron Rodgers making a deep playoff run in what is expected to be his final year as a pro, but the Steelers don’t have many other weaknesses to their roster. They’re one of the league’s most underrated teams in the trenches, with a young, promising offensive line led by Zach Frazier and Troy Fautanu. There’s a great pass rush and what could potentially be an excellent secondary if Joey Porter Jr. is on the field. Facing the league’s eighth-easiest schedule, the Steelers should be able to approach 10 wins and get back into the postseason, even without Tomlin in the picture. Carolina PanthersMy pick for 2026: Out of the playoffsSomebody had to win the NFC South last season. While the Panthers picked up impressive wins over the Packers and Rams during the regular season, they ranked either third or fourth in the division by most advanced metrics. They finished 25th in DVOA and won a three-way tiebreaker with the Buccaneers and Falcons at 8-9. I’m not sure any of the teams in the NFC South are good enough to separate from the pack, but after finishing first a year ago, the Panthers are facing the toughest schedule of any team in their division this season. They’ve also already been battered by injuries, with players such as Taylor Moton, Tershawn Wharton, Nic Scourton, Ikem Ekwonu and Chris Brazzell II already out before the regular season begins. It’s tough to feel really confident in Carolina at the moment, although it’s admittedly hard to feel that way about any of its divisional brethren, either. Jacksonville JaguarsMy pick for 2026: Out of the playoffsThe Jags rode a massive increase in defensive takeaways and a second half full of games against second- and third-string quarterbacks to make a nine-game leap and jump into the postseason. There are talented players on defense, and Travis Hunter could help shore up what had been a weak spot at corner if he’s there on something close to a full-time basis in 2026. But the playoff push was really driven by a defense that ranked sixth in DVOA, and the Jaguars won’t be as healthy or force as many turnovers this season. Most of the discussion around the Jags surrounds the offense, and while Trevor Lawrence ended the regular season protecting the football, the unit finished only 14th in DVOA. There’s a scenario where the offense is much better in 2026, but it involves a lot of counting on the best versions of players such as Brian Thomas Jr., Bhayshul Tuten, Cole Van Lanen and Parker Washington all showing up at the same time. I have serious reservations about the running game and the offensive line, and playing a league-high 11 games away from their home stadium won’t help matters. This could be a consolidation year for Jacksonville. Chicago BearsMy pick for 2026: Out of the playoffsIt could also be one for the Bears, who made major strides under Ben Johnson in the young coach’s first year at the helm, especially on offense. We saw a team that relied almost entirely on fourth-quarter success on offense, takeaways on defense and a series of perfectly timed meltdowns by its opposition to win a bunch of close games. And history tells us that’s just not a sustainable way to win games year after year. Caleb Williams could go supernova this season and compete for an MVP award, and the 2026 Bears could play at a much higher level for all four quarters of games on offense. An overhauled defense could play much better on a snap-by-snap basis, too. That scenario absolutely exists. The numbers suggest that the Bears are going to take a step backward before moving forward, though, and in a division where every team posted a winning record in 2025, that might be enough to drop Chicago out of the postseason. Which 2025 wild-card teams will return to the playoffs?Here’s where this gets really painful. I’d argue that the six teams that claimed wild-card berths last season collectively have a better shot of winning the Super Bowl in 2026 than the eight reigning divisional champs. While the five teams I projected as most likely to decline this upcoming season were all 2025 divisional champions, there are no obvious regression candidates here. But history tells us that just under 54% of wild-card teams since 2002 make it back to the postseason the following year. (That number includes seventh seeds as postseason qualifiers even before the league expanded to the 14-team playoff.) As a result, to abide by what we should expect from a typical year, I have to pick three of last season’s wild-card teams to make it into the playoffs and three to miss out. Gulp. Los Angeles RamsMy pick for 2026: In the playoffs (NFC wild card)Well, one of the picks to make the postseason was easy. The Rams were the widespread Super Bowl favorites even before Aaron Donald unretired, adding an almost comical level of star power and depth to what was already the league’s scariest defensive line. ESPN’s FPI gives the Rams a better chance of winning the Super Bowl (17%) than missing the playoffs outright (16%). The Chiefs missing the playoffs last year despite having a healthy Patrick Mahomes until mid-December is a reminder that no team is guaranteed a trip to the postseason in any given year. At the same time, it’s difficult to put together a scenario where the Rams miss the playoffs. Even if Matthew Stafford does get hurt or takes a major step backward at 38, the Rams could turn to first-round pick Ty Simpson, who would be supported by some of the league’s best playmakers, arguably its best offensive architect and a defense overloaded with talent. And heck, if Sean McVay coaxed Donald out of retirement, what’s stopping him from adding another future Hall of Famer or two between now and January? Houston TexansMy pick for 2026: In the playoffs (AFC South champions)The 2025 Texans became just the second team since 2002 to start 0-3 and still advance to the postseason, following in the footsteps of the 2018 Texans. And after that 0-3 start, they were as good as any team in football. Despite losing C.J. Stroud for a month, the Texans went 12-2, outscored their opponents by nearly nine points per game and led all defenses in points allowed per drive (1.5). Stroud melted down in the postseason, which is obviously a concern if it carries over into 2026, but he was better in the regular season than those playoff memories would suggest. He has been a solid-or-better starter without any semblance of a running game, and if the move to add David Montgomery behind a reconfigured offensive line finally unlocks the Texans on the ground, we could see something closer to the rookie-year version of Stroud this season. The combination of Stroud, a truly dominant defense and a relatively weak division gives Houston a high floor. Buffalo BillsMy pick for 2026: In the playoffs (AFC wild card)Speaking of teams with high floors, Josh Allen’s streak of 137 consecutive starts gives the Bills a massive advantage on just about every other team in the league. Buffalo’s 83-33 record since 2019 puts it one game behind the Chiefs, with the Bills rolling off seven consecutive seasons with double-digit victories over that span. They’re the only team in the NFL to make it to the playoffs in each of the past seven years. This is a transitional year for them. The Bills are moving to a new stadium without fired head coach Sean McDermott, who had been in charge since 2017. That creates some uncertainty. Will Joe Brady be an effective head coach? Will the offense suffer as Brady’s focus spreads to the entire team? I’m optimistic about debuting defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard after seeing what he did at Wisconsin, but the Bills have major question marks in the secondary. If Leonhard can transform the defense, Buffalo could be the best team in the league. If there are growing pains on both sides of the ball, the Bills should still be a playoff team — but they might not be able to usurp the Patriots and reclaim the AFC East. San Francisco 49ersMy pick for 2026: Out of the playoffsThe 49ers don’t really do middle of the pack. Under Kyle Shanahan, they have four seasons with 12 or more wins, but they also have four with six wins or fewer. Those subpar years are usually a product of injuries, an issue that seems to perpetually plague the Niners. They’ve had only one even vaguely healthy season in recent years, which came in 2023. Naturally, that was the year the 49ers made it to the Super Bowl, where in-game injuries to Jon Feliciano and Dre Greenlaw might have decided a close contest with the Chiefs. Well, as we enter Week 1, the 49ers are already banged up. Ricky Pearsall is already out for the year. Offseason additions Nate Hobbs and Christian Kirk are on injured reserve, while 2025 first-round pick Mykel Williams is on the physically unable to perform list. Veteran fullback Kyle Juszczyk, big free agent signing Mike Evans, starting corner Renardo Green and second-round pick De’Zhaun Stribling (who was one of the breakout stars in training camp) have all missed practice time with injuries. And of course, Shanahan himself was shaken up after a scary automobile accident before camp began. The good news has Nick Bosa and George Kittle traveling to Australia to play in the season opener, but both veterans are coming off serious injuries and might not be 100% to start the season. Fred Warner is returning from a badly fractured ankle. And so many of the other key players on San Francisco’s roster — including Trent Williams, Christian McCaffrey, Greenlaw and even starting quarterback Brock Purdy — have long track records of struggling to stay healthy for full seasons. A healthy 49ers team would be one of the best in football, but that’s always a difficult ask. And after going 5-1 in one-score games last season, San Francisco can’t count on pulling out so many close ones in 2026. Los Angeles ChargersMy pick for 2026: Out of the playoffsIt’s no fun picking against the Chargers, who perpetually have a Super Bowl ceiling given the core of star talent on their roster at key positions. And like everyone else, I’m extremely excited to see what new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel can do with Justin Herbert, two high-end tackles in Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, and a group of promising young playmakers led by Omarion Hampton and Ladd McConkey. There’s a chance that the Chargers combine what has been one of the league’s best defenses with a resurgent offense and look like the very best team in the NFL this year. There’s also a scenario where things don’t go quite as well. The defense lost star coordinator Jesse Minter, who joined the Ravens to take over as their new head coach. New coordinator Chris O’Leary will be in that role for the first time at any level. Minter was able to coax improved play from veterans Donte Jackson and Khalil Mack while developing youngsters such as Cam Hart, Tarheeb Still and Daiyan Henley into immediate contributors. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the defense took a step backward this season. And while Herbert will undoubtedly be excited about getting his two standout tackles back in the lineup, the interior of the O-line looms as a potential weakness, especially after Tyler Biadasz tore an ACL this summer. Second-round pick Jake Slaughter will step in at center, but the duo of Kayode Awosika and Cole Strange has much to prove at guard if McDaniel wants to install the sort of run game he was known for in Miami. The Chargers will also face what projects to be the league’s seventh-toughest schedule, while their division rivals in Kansas City and Denver land at 17th and 18th, respectively. Green Bay PackersMy pick for 2026: Out of the playoffsAfter picking the Packers to win the NFC and make it to the Super Bowl each of the past two years, I’m reluctantly forced by the structure of this column to bow out and hop off their bandwagon this year. I’m still a believer in the core talent on this roster, and with so many players who are either entering or in the middle of their prime, Matt LaFleur should have some of his young contributors break out and hit a new level in 2026. Jordan Love, who has led the NFL in Total QBR since the second half of the 2023 season, is already one of the league’s most underappreciated quarterbacks. In 2026, though, this roster has a lot of questions. Micah Parsons will start the year on the physically unable to perform list, and it’s unclear when the Packers can count on him to look like his usual self as he recovers from a torn ACL. The Packers traded away Rashan Gary this offseason for cap relief after the Parsons deal, meaning that their lead returning pass rusher in terms of sack production to start the season is Devonte Wyatt, who had four in 2025. The Packers didn’t have a first-round pick to help supplement the defense this offseason, and defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley left to take over as the head coach in Miami. The offense is also in flux. Rasheed Walker and Elgton Jenkins both left during the offseason, leaving former first-round pick Jordan Morgan — who hasn’t looked great at guard — to move to left tackle. The five backup linemen on the roster have a combined 76 career snaps on offense. Luke Musgrave is out indefinitely with a neck injury, which could limit Green Bay’s ability to play out of multi-tight end sets, even with the return of Tucker Kraft. And lead back Josh Jacobs was placed on the commissioner exempt list last week, leaving the Packers to turn their run game over to three young backs, none of whom has ever carried the ball more than 40 times in a single season. It already feels like the Packers are hanging on for dear life, and the season hasn’t even begun. Which teams will go ‘outhouse to penthouse’ in 2026?With the 49ers, Bears, Chargers, Jaguars, Packers and Panthers all missing the playoffs in this scenario, I need to pick six teams that missed out last season to take their places. And naturally, the right place for me to start is … at the bottom. Since 2002, about 31% of teams that finished in the bottom five of their respective conferences in a given year have finished as a top-seven seed the following season. So, taking the 10 worst teams in the NFL — five from each conference — a year ago, I need to pick three of them to massively improve and make it to the postseason in 2026. This is where I had the most success last year. I picked the Bears (coming off a 5-12 season), Jaguars (4-13) and 49ers (6-11) to make it to the playoffs, and all three got there. Of course, I also picked the Cardinals as one of the other new postseason teams, and they finished dead last in the NFC, so I won’t be patting myself too hard on the back. Kansas City ChiefsMy pick for 2026: In the playoffs (AFC West champions)This one won’t be quite as controversial as picking the Bears or Jaguars last year, of course. I laid out the case for the Chiefs in my column on teams likeliest to improve last month, built around their record in one-score games bouncing back after falling from 10-0 in 2024 to 1-9 in 2025, the biggest single-season swing in history. It’s too simplistic to say that the difference will be getting back Patrick Mahomes, given that Mahomes went 6-8 as the starter a year ago, but the Chiefs were a pretty good team by advanced metrics with their future Hall of Famer on the field. They ranked ahead of the Broncos in DVOA as late as Week 14, which was Mahomes’ last full game before the ACL tear. The 2024 Chiefs were an above-average team with spectacular luck. The 2025 team was an above-average team with truly awful luck. The 2026 edition expects to land somewhere in the middle, which should place Kansas City in the range of 11 or 12 wins. Dallas CowboysMy pick for 2026: In the playoffs (NFC wild card)The Cowboys also project to improve in 2026 after making massive upgrades on defense. As Nick Harris of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram noted, 17 of the 26 defensive players who were on Dallas’ roster in Week 1 last September aren’t on NFL rosters right now. In addition to new defensive coordinator Christian Parker, the Cowboys could have as many as seven new starters on the field to begin the year on Sunday against the Giants. Those defenders should also be luckier. The Cowboys forced takeaways on only 6.2% of opposing drives last season, which ranked 30th in the league, ahead of only the Commanders and Jets. Their 1.1% interception rate was also third worst in the league, ahead of the 49ers and Jets, who famously did not intercept a single pass all season. The Cowboys have lost star guard Tyler Smith to a thumb injury for the first month, but they’re returning all 11 starters from what was one of the league’s best offenses in 2025. If the defense can just be adequate, the Cowboys should be able to make it back to the postseason. New York GiantsMy pick for 2026: In the playoffs (NFC wild card)The Giants? Yes, the same Giants who finished 4-13 in 2025. Do I think they’re better than the Packers? No. But acknowledging that history tells us three teams from this bucket at the bottom of the 2025 standings will make it to the playoffs in 2026, the Giants look a lot like the Bears and Jaguars did a year ago — better than it seemed the year before and in position to make a leap. The Giants went 1-6 in one-score games, losing three contests in which they held a lead in the final minute of regulation and four in which their win probability topped 90% in the fourth quarter. That can be a product of a team that doesn’t know how to win, but as we saw with the shift between the 2024 and 2025 Bears and what they did in the fourth quarters of games, even young teams tend to figure out that side of the game quicker than expected. Injuries tormented key players for the Giants last season, but it appears Jaxson Dart, Malik Nabers and Andrew Thomas will all be on the field in Week 1, something we saw for only a handful of snaps last year. One of the league’s deepest pass rushes should be capable of tormenting opposing pass protection units, but there are real questions about the run defense, which was a mess even before trading defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II. The most important upgrade might be head coach John Harbaugh, who joins after an 18-year run with the Ravens. His experience and game management skills should help the Giants in those close games, but it’s fair to note that Giants fans aren’t especially enthused about his staff, particularly the decision to hire Matt Nagy and Greg Roman to run the offense. Of course, you could also make the case that they’ve both overseen playoff offenses in multiple stops around the league. Can New York overcome a difficult schedule? The Giants rank eighth in projected strength of schedule, per the FPI, with a slightly easier slate than the Cowboys and Commanders, whom they might compete with for a playoff spot. Of course, a year ago, the Bears were projected to face the league’s fourth-toughest schedule heading into the season, but with improved coaching and a step forward from their second-year quarterback, they jumped from worst to first in the NFC North. I don’t think the Giants make that sort of push and win the division, but I do think they’re capable of being the league’s most surprising wild-card team. Which teams will fill the final three playoff spots?That leaves us with three remaining playoff spots for newcomers. And as you might have noticed, we’re still looking for three division champions. That means we’ll be solely picking teams from the NFC South, AFC North and NFC North to finish up. Tampa Bay BuccaneersMy pick for 2026: In the playoffs (NFC South champions)I’m not sure any of the four teams in the NFC South should be huge favorites, but somebody has to win it. I’ll lean toward the Buccaneers, who saw their run game deteriorate last season as they battled injuries to both their lead back (Bucky Irving) and much of their offensive line. Baker Mayfield was able to pull out games with fourth-quarter magic early in the season, but the offense stagnated as the year went along. Tampa also had some of the worst special teams in the league, which should hopefully be alleviated by the addition of legendary Steelers special teams coach Danny Smith. While the Bucs shed talent in losing veteran standouts Mike Evans and Jamel Dean this offseason, they were able to retain Vita Vea and should be the best team in the division along the offensive and defensive lines. Mayfield, having finally agreed to terms Tuesday on the long-term contract he sought, should still have enough in the way of playmaking talent to live up to the new deal. And in reality, this might be more about process of elimination than anything else. I’ve already laid out my concerns about an injury-hit Panthers team. The Saints were two games off the pace in 2025 and were carried to six wins by a defense that has lost three key players in Demario Davis, Alontae Taylor and Bryan Bresee. And the Falcons don’t appear to have a solution they feel good about at quarterback, while their 2025 first-round picks on the edge are either out for the year (Jalon Walker) or suspended for half the season (James Pearce Jr.). I don’t feel great about the Bucs, but I feel worse about everyone else. Baltimore RavensMy pick for 2026: In the playoffs (AFC North champions)The Ravens aren’t exactly a sleeper pick to return to the postseason, given that they have the second-highest playoff chances in the league, per the FPI, as we approach the start of the year. Their case is simple: a healthier year from Lamar Jackson and a more consistently productive season from the defense under new head coach Jesse Minter, who did wonders in Los Angeles with the Chargers. Zach Orr’s defense ranked 17th in DVOA last season while ranking as the league’s third-most injured unit by adjusted games lost, and the Ravens will hope to line up star defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike next to new addition Trey Hendrickson up front for most of 2026. Can you pick holes in that logic? Sure. Madubuike might not be his usual self after recovering from a serious neck injury. The Ravens look thin in the secondary and are relying on veteran corners Marlon Humphrey and Chidobe Awuzie to stay healthy. The interior of the offensive line was rebuilt and will take time to jell. And new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle — less than a year older than Jackson — will be overseeing an evolved version of what had been one of the league’s best offenses under Todd Monken. I’m still picking the Ravens to win the division, but there are real questions Baltimore has to answer if it wants to make a deep playoff run in January. Detroit LionsMy pick for 2026: In the playoffs (NFC North champions)My final playoff spot came down to a battle between the Lions and Vikings in the NFC North. There are reasons to be optimistic about both teams, of course. Detroit was within one half of making the Super Bowl in 2023 and was the top seed in the conference in 2024 before some bad luck cost it a playoff spot in 2025. And as Kevin O’Connell has pointed out, the Vikings have put together 13- and 14-win seasons over the past five years when they’ve been able to piece together even competent quarterback play from the likes of Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold — a level Kyler Murray should hopefully be able to match in 2026. I wouldn’t be surprised if both teams made it to the postseason in 2026, but under the constraints of this system, I can pick only one. I leaned toward the Lions for a few reasons. One is schedule. Detroit projects to play the league’s second-easiest slate of opponents in 2026, per the FPI. The Vikings, surprisingly, come up with the league’s 17th-easiest schedule, even though they share many similar opponents. Both teams will face the AFC East and NFC South this year, but the Lions get the Cardinals, Giants and Titans as additionals, whereas the Vikings have the 49ers, Commanders and Colts. The FPI also sees the Lions as a more difficult opponent for the Vikings than vice versa. The Lions should, at least in theory, be healthier on defense than they were in 2024 and 2025, when they ranked last in adjusted games lost in back-to-back campaigns. Admittedly, that starts with Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph opening the year on the physically unable to perform list, so things aren’t off to a great start, but the rest of the defense is healthier than it was a year ago. The Vikings, meanwhile, should be more banged-up by the end of 2026 after ranking fifth and fourth in AGL over the prior two seasons, respectively, even if they’re healthier than the Lions to open the season. And of course, while the Vikings should have an advantage in terms of defensive performance, the Lions do project to be much better on the other side of the ball, where they have best-offense-in-football upside. While acknowledging that they’ve cycled through quarterbacks, the Vikings are yet to even land in the top 10 in a single season for offensive EPA per play under O’Connell, ranking 12th, 15th, 15th again and 28th over the past four seasons. We just don’t know if Murray will be a good fit for O’Connell’s offense or if the Vikings can keep him healthy for the entire season, something the new starter has managed only once in the past five years. The Vikings also relied heavily on veterans last season, fielding the league’s third-oldest team, including its second-oldest defense. Minnesota will be younger along the interior of the line this year, but it is still relying on several veterans in key spots, including newly re-signed safety Harrison Smith, who will be 37 this season. If those guys stay healthy and play well, all is good. If not, well, the Vikings don’t possess a very deep roster. That might represent the difference as both these teams get through a 17-game season. And … who will win the Super Bowl?Well, I naturally have to throw in a Super Bowl pick here. I’ve predicted Chiefs-Packers in the Super Bowl each of the past two years as part of a six-year stretch of choosing the Chiefs as eventual champs. Obviously, there have been years where that has gone really well, but that wasn’t the case a year ago. The Chiefs missed the playoffs outright, and after injuries to Jordan Love and Micah Parsons, the Packers were only the seventh seed (and lost to the Bears in the wild-card round). I’ve already picked the Packers to miss the postseason earlier in this column, so I won’t get to them here. On the NFC side, I’ll pick the Eagles. I really believe in their defense as potentially being the league’s most complete unit, with difference-makers at all three levels and one of the best defensive coaches in Vic Fangio. There’s understandable skepticism about the offense after the Eagles made coaching changes and moved on from legendary offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland, but when Lane Johnson has been on the field, the Eagles have been successful. The star right tackle should be in the lineup more often in 2026, and the Eagles will have more success running the ball than they did a year ago. They’re one of the few teams that can compete with the Rams along the line of scrimmage and hold up in coverage against their playmakers. And then in the AFC, with no clear favorite, I’m willing to make a leap of faith and continue backing the Chiefs. I’m cautiously optimistic about Mahomes given that he’ll be on the field Week 1, and Andy Reid’s team should have a more complete roster than what it lined up in 2025 after signing Kenneth Walker III and making significant investments along the defensive line. The offensive line should be healthier, although getting Josh Simmons on the field early in the season would be important. The schedule is easier earlier in the year, which should help a Chiefs team trying to evolve its identity after an offseason full of changes. The Bills and Ravens should still be dangerous if the coaching changes unlock their defenses, but I’m willing to believe in at least one more run from the Mahomes-Travis Kelce-Chris Jones core. That leaves us with a Super Bowl rubber match. And as you can probably guess, if I believed enough in the Chiefs to pick them to win the AFC, I’ll ride with them to gain a measure of revenge and beat the Eagles in Super Bowl LXI. The added rushing element with Walker will give the Eagles issues they didn’t face when these two teams met in Super Bowl LIX, when the Chiefs basically abandoned the run altogether after the Eagles took an early lead. Without the ability to pin their ears back and strictly go after Mahomes as a passer, the Eagles might not be quite as dominant on defense this time around. Jalen Hurts has been spectacular in the Super Bowl matchups against Mahomes, but his one fumble in Super Bowl LVII helped swing seven points back to the Chiefs in a 38-35 victory. This one wouldn’t be quite as high-scoring, but let’s say that the Chiefs let Kelce (and potentially other members of the organization) ride off into the sunset. My pick: Chiefs 27, Eagles 24