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QB TIERS
Mike Sando, a former ESPNer, is now at The Athletic. He has 55 NFL insiders who are willing to help him rank NFL QBs in Tiers as each season starts.
If you don’t want to scroll further down, here is how they line up –
Tier 1
AARON RODGERS, Green Bay
TOM BRADY, New England
DREW BREES, New Orleans
ANDREW LUCK, Indianapolis
PHILIP RIVERS, LA Chargers
BEN ROETHLISBERGER, Pittsburgh
RUSSELL WILSON, Seattle
Tier 2
MATT RYAN, Atlanta
CARSON WENTZ, Philadelphia
MATTHEW STAFFORD, Detroit
DESHAUN WATSON, Houston
JARED GOFF, LA Rams
BAKER MAYFIELD, Cleveland
Tier 3
CAM NEWTON, Carolina
KIRK COUSINS, Minnesota
DAK PRESCOTT, Dallas
NICK FOLES, Jacksonville
JIMMY GAROPPOLO, San Francisco
DEREK CARR, Oakland
JOE FLACCO, Denver
ANDY DALTON, Cincinnati
JAMEIS WINSTON, Tampa Bay
ELI MANNING, NY Giants
MITCHELL TRUBISKY, Chicago
MARCUS MARIOTA, Tennessee
SAM DARNOLD, NY Jets
Tier 4
LAMAR JACKSON, Baltimore
JOSH ALLEN, Buffalo
RYAN FITZPATRICK, Miami
CASE KEENUM, Washington
JOSH ROSEN, Miami
The whole thing is immense task and that which we present below is in edited form:
Welcome to my sixth annual Quarterback Tiers survey. As “QB Tiers” makes its debut on The Athletic after five years at ESPN, a short primer is in order.
Fifty-five NFL coaches and executives contributed to the survey this year by placing all veteran starting quarterbacks into one of five tiers and then offering insights into their thinking.
Tier 1 is reserved for the best, while Tier 5 is so poor that no starters received a majority of votes in that tier this year.
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The rankings are not gospel. No single voter agrees with the final results exactly. There are quarterbacks I’d move higher or lower if filling out my own ballot. This is a composite look at what the league thinks of its quarterbacks and why.
I’ve defined each tier based on input collected over the years during hundreds of discussions with coaches and evaluators. Tier definitions are spelled out below, atop each section. Generally speaking, the better the tier, the less help the quarterback needs from his defense and running game to succeed. Every quarterback resides within the tier for which he received the most votes.
Only non-rookie starters were included, on the thinking that mixing rookies with veterans would create an apples-to-oranges dynamic.
The Miami Dolphins have two quarterbacks in this survey. Thirty teams are represented once. The Arizona Cardinals, with rookie Kyler Murray identified as the clear starter, are the only team not represented.
Tier 1
A Tier 1 quarterback can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. He expertly handles pure passing situations.
AARON RODGERS, Green Bay
Tier 1 votes: 53 | Tier 2 votes: 2
Rodgers has at least tied for the top spot six times in six years of QB Tiers balloting, but some voters were less enthusiastic this time around. Two even placed Rodgers in the second tier, the first time Rodgers received a second-tier vote since 2014, when he was coming off an injury.
“It was always Ted Thompson or Mike McCarthy’s fault, and when it gets to be two people’s fault, then you wonder,” a GM who nonetheless placed Rodgers in the top tier said. “You see the body language and then you realize the heroics come when there is nothing to lose.”
Those most critical of Rodgers raised concerns about him becoming less coachable, going for big plays instead of running the offense, failing to get Green Bay into the playoffs and losing some dynamism through cumulative injuries.
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Another Rodgers defender said he charted all the catchable passes Rodgers delivered that were not caught through the bulk of last season. His conclusion: Rodgers’ incomplete passes were better than a lot of starters’ highlights.
“Debating whether Rodgers is in the top tier is the equivalent of asking whether LeBron James is the best basketball player,” a defensive backs coach said, “because he is just so gifted with some of his abilities, and there is no way you can say a Matt Ryan is better even though there could be some years statistically where a case can be made.”
TOM BRADY, New England
Tier 1 votes: 52 | Tier 2 votes: 3
Go ahead, take out the microscope and look for evidence Brady is declining as his age-42 season approaches.
“You can try to find something,” an exec said. “Brady is like Steph Curry. The first quarter might look like crap, but you’d better have a big lead because when it comes to nut-cutting time, he is going to make it happen.”
Some microscope wielders suggested Brady had a harder time throwing as consistently well on passes outside the numbers.
“That is what happens when you get so high up there — people pick for little holes,” a defensive coordinator said. “At the end of the day, would you like that guy running your team? Hell, yeah! You’d take him 16 out of 16 weeks.”
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“Brady is a 1, and I don’t know how you could argue it,” an offensive coordinator said. “People can be critical about his movement or whatever, but just look at the criteria: can carry his team each week, the team wins because of him, he handles pure pass situations and has no holes. Brady plays his best in the most critical situations. Anyone who doesn’t put him as a 1 is evaluating the wrong things.”
One last question: When might Brady decline?
“I don’t see a drop-off without a catastrophic injury or, like the great pitchers, if he loses his legs,” a defensive coach said. “I believe he is increasing his fitness. And then he has the best footwork, the best execution of the screen pass, and if you watch the cutups of his fakes, it is like a f—ing magic act. Beyond that, I’m not sure the game has seen a competitor that exceeds him.”
DREW BREES, New Orleans
Tier 1 votes: 51 | Tier 2 votes: 4
Brees commanded top-tier votes at a higher rate this year than last, but quite a few voters thought he belonged at the bottom of Tier 1. There was greater enthusiasm for Mahomes than for Brees among voters who placed both in the top tier, but Brees’ much longer track record gave him the benefit of the doubt with some.
“I like to think of the ones being so rare over the years — Peyton, Brady, Rodgers,” an offensive coordinator said. “Then you take a breath and you say it’s Brees, whoever else. Look, I’m president of the Drew Brees fan club, but last year, when the run game dried up a little, I felt he was not carrying them like he was before.”
Much of the praise for Brees comes with subtle qualifiers.
“Drew can carry his team in those pure passing situations,” a head coach said. “He is limited in certain throws he has to make on rhythm now, but I think you still have to give him a 1.”
A defensive coordinator called Brees a 1 for knowing what to do but a 2 from a physical standpoint.
“The system bails him out with the run game, the quick passing game and the play-action,” said this coordinator, who placed only Rodgers and Brady in his top tier. “I don’t think he can carry a team (without that). His quick decision-making makes him.”
PATRICK MAHOMES, Kansas City
Tier 1 votes: 48 | Tier 2 votes: 7
All voters agreed Mahomes played at a top-tier level in 2018, his first as the Chiefs’ full-time starter. The seven who placed Mahomes in the second tier said they wanted to see him do it again before granting him entry into the club that Rodgers and Brady headed for so long. It’s a tough crowd.
“He is as good as I’ve ever seen,” an exec who placed Mahomes in the top tier said. “I remember seeing that last game two years ago when he played against Denver, and I said, ‘Ho-lyyy s—!’ We just could not believe some of the throws he was making. It’s ridiculous, and he is only going to get better. How can you not give him a 1? Who is better right now? You would take him over any player in the league.”
Even voters who loved Mahomes coming out of college thought he would need more time to become an MVP candidate.
“I want to see him do it again when people study him and their offense,” another exec said, “but from what I’ve seen, he might end up being the best ever. He has got some of the best-ever superpowers.”
ANDREW LUCK, Indianapolis
Tier 1 votes: 40 | Tier 2 votes: 15
Luck carried the Colts for years and paid a heavy price physically. An improved offensive line and a shift toward offensive balance and quicker passes made Luck’s job easier upon his return from shoulder surgery.
“I personally believe that Andrew Luck is a great quarterback,” a defensive backs coach said. “I really do, for leadership, intangibles, communication. He can throw all the balls, he is very accurate, he can see what is going on in front of him. He gets it done fast.”
Finally healthy, Luck polled better in this QB Tiers survey (1.28 average) than he had in any of them since 2015 (1.14).
“Andrew Luck’s accuracy is unbelievable,” a GM said. “He can put the ball anywhere.”
“Mahomes and Luck are going to be battling for that mantel in the future because Luck is special,” a personnel director said. “I think Brady is No. 1 right now.”
PHILIP RIVERS, LA Chargers
Tier 1 votes: 33 | Tier 2 votes: 22
The Chargers know Rivers, as the owner of a 208-game starting streak, will be in the lineup every week. Opposing defenses know Rivers will be in the same spot — right there in the pocket — on just about every pass play.
What has changed over the past two seasons is that Rivers, backed by an improved defense, has reduced the interceptions that dogged him in 2014 and 2016. Throwing 508 passes last season, Rivers’ lowest total since 2009, probably helped reduce chances for negative plays.
“Right when you have seen some age, it disappears,” a head coach said.
The knock on Rivers is he can’t create when plays break, but the way Rivers compensates makes him special, with one offensive coordinator calling Rivers’ field vision unbelievable.
“We play him this season, so I’ve been watching him, and he is just a conductor,” a defensive assistant said. “If you are a poor poker player and he has any sense of what you are in, he knows what to do, so it is all about disguise. You have to f— with him presnap or he will pick you apart.”
Some would like to see more from Rivers in the biggest games.
“Don’t get me wrong, I hate playing against the f—r, but I have him right there with Roethlisberger, just an inch below the top guys,” a defensive coordinator said. “(The Chargers) made the playoffs last year, but it’s almost like they are stuck right there.”
BEN ROETHLISBERGER, Pittsburgh
Tier 1 votes: 32 | Tier 2 votes: 23
The voting results for Roethlisberger have held steady over the past three summers, but he lost ground to the field in 2019 with Mahomes breaking out, Luck getting healthy and Rivers rising.
“Is he Tier 1?” an evaluator asked. “To me, no, but would I want him in one game over every other player who is not in Tier 1? Yes.”
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“I have no problems with our quarterback calling our players out here in the building,” an evaluator said, “but to do it in public on that radio show, I can’t believe they allow that.”
RUSSELL WILSON, Seattle
Tier 1 votes: 29 | Tier 2 votes: 26
This year marks the first time most voters placed Wilson in the top tier.
That might seem surprising given Wilson’s stats and championship pedigree, but Seattle has won so many games over the years with an elite defense and run-oriented offense that Wilson, for all his excellence, hasn’t had to win from the pocket as a passer consistently. That is typically how quarterbacks must win if their defense and/or ground game are lacking, and it’s usually a big part of earning a place in the top tier.
“What makes him unique is, with the game on the line, he can beat you, extend plays and do that,” a defensive coach with NFC West ties said. “But throughout the whole course of the game, they gotta keep the score down and they gotta run the ball.”
Tier 2
A Tier 2 quarterback can carry his team sometimes but not as consistently. He can handle pure passing situations in doses and/or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. He has a hole or two in his game.
MATT RYAN, Atlanta
Tier 1 votes: 13 | Tier 2 votes: 39 | Tier 3 votes: 3
Ryan got 13 top-tier votes, more than double the total for the rest of the second tier combined, but with the Falcons missing the playoffs four times in the past six years, most voters had a hard time pushing Ryan into the top tier. Some feel as though he’s prone to the costly turnover.
“He was on his way to being a major one if Kyle Shanahan had stayed (as offensive coordinator),” a GM said. “The coordinator changes he has gone through have led to some inconsistencies. He has a chance now with Dirk Koetter. I’m not as scared of Ryan in pure pass, but when he gets going, he can carry a team.”
CARSON WENTZ, Philadelphia
Tier 1 votes: 5 | Tier 2 votes: 34 | Tier 3 votes: 16
A good chunk of voters think Wentz would be a 1 if knee and back injuries hadn’t forced his career to take a detour.
“He’s a 1,” an offensive coordinator said. “We played them; he made four to five throws I really did not think he could make. He has great confidence, great stature. Big arm. Competitive. He gets hit more than he should, but he played young and should grow out of that.”
Some dropped Wentz into the third tier this offseason simply because they weren’t sure he would recapture the form he showed before the knee injury.
“We have played him, and our head coach thinks the world of him, and I think he is a great player and a strong athlete,” a defensive coordinator said. “I just don’t know his ability to read it and have touch passes. He can throw hard balls in there, and he has a super-strong arm. I do not yet know if he has the touch and the feel to ascend.”
MATTHEW STAFFORD, Detroit
Tier 1 votes: 1 | Tier 2 votes: 41 | Tier 3 votes: 13
“The top (QBs) usually make (other) guys better, and you just do not see that happening with him.”
Stafford’s average tier slipped from 1.7 last summer to 2.2 this time, as only one voter placed him in the top tier, down from 15 a year ago. Voters expressed disappointment that Stafford’s top-tier talent hasn’t translated to greater team success.
DESHAUN WATSON, Houston
Tier 1 votes: 2 | Tier 2 votes: 36 | Tier 3 votes: 17
Watson moved more solidly into the second tier after his first full season as a starter. There was much to like — and a few concerns as well.
“He can get the ball to the right people, he leads his team, he makes all the guys around him better — I think the guy is legit,” an offensive coordinator said.
A defensive coordinator said Watson surprised him with his throwing ability.
“Their offensive line was a disaster; he had no chance. They had an injury at receiver, they did not have a front-line back, and I do not think they have a tight end that scares you,” a GM said. “(Watson) does a lot of that on his own, and maybe that is how he is at his best — off-schedule stuff. He is a guy who can win games for you when things are down.”
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A defensive coordinator offered a quick rebuttal to the idea that Watson doesn’t produce enough within the rhythm of the offense.
“Neither does Rodgers,” this coordinator said.
JARED GOFF, LA Rams
Tier 1 votes: 1 | Tier 2 votes: 38 | Tier 3 votes: 16
Goff moved up seven spots and a full tier in the rankings from one year ago. The most common analysis says Goff makes spectacular throws from a clean pocket, but he struggles amid chaos and depends more than most on his play-caller putting him in position to succeed based on what the defense is showing before the snap.
“I like him a lot,” an offensive coordinator said. “He didn’t play as well as you’d like in the Super Bowl, so people are overreacting, but you watch his season, he makes some unbelievably good throws. He is the perfect guy for them. Definitely a 2.”
Nearly a third of voters placed Goff in the third tier.
“The couple games he had to carry it, he could not do it,” a defensive coordinator who faced the Rams said.
BAKER MAYFIELD, Cleveland
Tier 2 votes: 30 | Tier 3 votes: 21 | Tier 4 votes: 4
Voters are betting on Mayfield even more enthusiastically than they bet on Watson and Jimmy Garoppolo one year ago, when those quarterbacks made their QB Tiers debuts after starting less than one full season. Voters think Mayfield has what it takes to reach the top tier.
“I put on the tape and watched his whole season, and I’m like: ‘OK, this guy is special. I see what all the fuss is about,’” an offensive coach said. “He can do everything — no limitations at all schematically. For him to take the next step, he has to be a little bit smarter with the football, which comes with experience. I think he will get there.”
No voters placed Mayfield in the top tier.
“He will be a 1, if not this coming season, the season after,” a coach with AFC North ties said. “His mentality is like the 1s. He can handle his s—. He can direct the traffic. He can handle personalities. It is not too big for him. He doesn’t have to overcome anything in the intangible area to play. It is just a matter of the timing and the footwork and those things to catch up to what he already is mentally, which is great.”
Mayfield got 30 votes in the second tier and 21 in the third. The four fourth-tier votes for Mayfield came from voters who thought there wasn’t enough information yet.
Tier 3
A Tier 3 quarterback is a legitimate starter but needs a heavier running game and/or defense to win. A lower-volume passing offense makes his job easier.
CAM NEWTON, Carolina
Tier 2 votes: 26 | Tier 3 votes: 27 | Tier 4 votes: 2
A season-ending shoulder injury contributed to Newton’s fall from the second tier even though the Panthers’ offense was cruising at a high level for much of the 2018 season.
“I don’t think he trusted his arm last season, and you could see it in the deep passing game,” a coordinator said.
Newton completed a career-low nine passes for a career-low one touchdown on throws traveling at least 20 yards past the line of scrimmage. He averaged 20 such completions with seven for touchdowns over the previous three seasons.
“When he is healthy and everything is going, I think he is a 1,” a personnel director said. “He changes how that team plays, but with the injury, he would be a 2 for me.”
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“I think he still has the qualities to be a 1 if he’s healthy,” an offensive coach said.
While the deep ball was a problem for Newton in 2018, he completed a career-high 77 percent of his passes on throws traveling fewer than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. That included a career-best 78 percent rate when targeting wide receivers, which means Christian McCaffrey’s receiving skills were not necessarily driving the improvement.
“Cam has good vision, knows what is happening out there, and, at least last season, I thought he was very accurate on the short throws,” a coordinator said. “He has to get back to throwing the deep ball or defenses are just going to sit on them. That should come if he is healthy.”
KIRK COUSINS, Minnesota
Tier 2 votes: 16 | Tier 3 votes: 39
Most expect Cousins to fare better as the Vikings continue their shift toward an under-center offense similar to what he ran with Washington under Mike Shanahan. That transition began last season when Kevin Stefanski took over as offensive coordinator. Gary Kubiak’s arrival should only reinforce it, not that people in the league are buying the idea that Cousins is suddenly going to be dynamic.
“The world is going to pick Kirk Cousins over Case Keenum, but both are system guys to me,” a GM said. “I get concerned with him when it counts.”
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“Good guy, smart, throws a good ball, knows how to get people lined up,” another head coach said, “but when there are 30 seconds to go in the game and you need a guy to make a play …”
DAK PRESCOTT, Dallas
Tier 2 votes: 16 | Tier 3 votes: 38 | Tier 4 votes: 1
The voter most bullish on Prescott saw potential for the Cowboys’ starter to produce like a top-tier quarterback in 2019, his contract year.
“When they got Amari Cooper, he really ascended,” said the voter, a veteran personnel evaluator. “Throw in the O-line, the running back, they add (Randall) Cobb in the slot, and I think (Tier) 2 could be the low number. I could see them winning 12 or 13 games and having people come back next year saying, ‘Oh, maybe he is closer to a 1.’”
That was not the prevailing opinion.
“I just think when it comes down to it, his accuracy is going to limit him because those three to four throws a game you miss, they get you in the long run,” an offensive coordinator said.
NICK FOLES, Jacksonville
Tier 2 votes: 18 | Tier 3 votes: 32 | Tier 4 votes: 5
Foles drew 18 second-tier votes, which trailed only Newton (26) among players in the third tier. Some voters weren’t sure whether he was a great relief pitcher or a legitimate starter.
“He might be the greatest 4 of all time,” a GM joked.
A head coach said he thought the more Foles prepared, the worse he got. That seemed like a harsh assessment, but even Foles’ supporters agreed there was truth to the thinking. It wasn’t a criticism of Foles as much as it was a prescription for how to use him best.
JIMMY GAROPPOLO, San Francisco
Tier 2 votes: 15 | Tier 3 votes: 31 | Tier 4 votes: 9
Garoppolo’s latest injury knocked him from the bottom of the second tier deep into the third. The voters who liked his upside one year ago still liked his upside, but they weren’t as willing to bet on it until Garoppolo proved he had staying power.
DEREK CARR, Oakland
Tier 2 votes: 6 | Tier 3 votes: 47 | Tier 4 votes: 2
Carr’s obvious talent made him a QB Tiers darling a few years ago, but a couple of rough seasons have changed perceptions, bringing to the foreground concerns that contributed to Carr slipping into the second round of the 2014 NFL Draft.
“It is tough when guys get stuck in bad situations,” a quarterbacks coach said. “Carr has 2 ability, but he is probably just a 3 right now.”
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“He is sensitive and needs encouragement, and that is not the style he is going to get,” an offensive coach said. “When someone shows disappointment in him, he shrinks. The head coach not coming out and completely endorsing him has to be eating him alive. When there is blame to be placed each week, it falls to the quarterback, and that is going to be a problem, so they had better hope they win or it’s going to be rocky for him.”
JOE FLACCO, Denver
Tier 2 votes: 9 | Tier 3 votes: 39 | Tier 4 votes: 6 | Tier 5 votes: 1
Flacco polled slightly higher this year than last, partly because some think the scheme fit in Denver could be good for him. Flacco enjoyed his finest statistical season in 2014, when Gary Kubiak was his offensive coordinator. Kubiak left Denver this offseason, but the Broncos’ new coordinator, Rich Scangarello, comes from the same coaching tree, via Kyle Shanahan. Scangarello spent the past two seasons coaching quarterbacks for the 49ers.
ANDY DALTON, Cincinnati
Tier 2 votes: 1 | Tier 3 votes: 51 | Tier 4 votes: 3
Dalton got more Tier 3 votes than anyone (51), and it wasn’t very close.
“He is a (Tier) 3 365 days a year,” a defensive coordinator said. “Not bad, just is what he is.”
Dalton was at his best in 2015 when the Bengals were at their best from a talent standpoint.
“I was surprised how solid he seemed when I watched him last year,” a quarterbacks coach said.
JAMEIS WINSTON, Tampa Bay
Tier 2 votes: 6 | Tier 3 votes: 41 | Tier 4 votes: 8
Winston entered the NFL as a turnover-prone quarterback, the kind who might benefit the most from a strong defense and ground game to facilitate a more conservative approach. Instead, the Buccaneers gave Winston the keys to their high-powered passing offense and asked him to win games for a roster that was lacking on defense, lacking in the run game and among the NFL’s very worst in the kicking game.
It has not always gone well. Now along comes new coach Bruce Arians, a proponent of offensive balance who is better known for pushing the ball down the field aggressively, which is what Tampa Bay has been doing already.
“It’s going to be interesting,” a GM said. “I think Jameis is the closest thing to Ben (Roethlisberger) in terms of similar playing style: a big dude who you try to sack and you fall off of him, can make some things happen off-script. Ben had great success with Bruce.”
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“He is a low 3, but if something happened, half the teams in the league would take him,” this coordinator said.
ELI MANNING, NY Giants
Tier 2 votes: 7 | Tier 3 votes: 38 | Tier 4 votes: 10
Manning keeps slipping in these rankings even though voters acknowledge the Giants’ offensive line has put him in a difficult position.
“I have a feeling Eli is going to do better than what people think,” a head coach said. “We can give him a 3 till he proves it, but I think he is more of a 2. Getting rid of that receiver (Odell Beckham Jr.) is a big thing. I think that guy was a (problem), but that is my own feeling.”
A defensive coordinator thought the Giants’ drafting of Daniel Jones in the first round could regenerate Manning mentally, making the team a candidate to surprise in 2019.
MITCHELL TRUBISKY, Chicago
Tier 2 votes: 6 | Tier 3 votes: 39 | Tier 4 votes: 10
While some voters expressed serious concerns about Trubisky’s outlook, reviews were generally more favorable than his No. 25 ranking might indicate.
“He has a really good arm, he can make the great throw, he is a good deep-ball thrower, he is not afraid to stand in the pocket, he’s not afraid of the noise of getting hit, which is a good sign,” an offensive coordinator said. “I just don’t think he really knows what’s going on yet.”
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Six voters placed Trubisky in the second tier, while others wondered whether he had the accuracy and anticipation to ascend.
“Even though they have Khalil (Mack) and some high-juice guys, it is his team,” an offensive coordinator said of Trubisky. “That is how it appears from the outside, and talking to people there, he is an awesome guy. His production is not great, but I think he has the ability. I think he is going to get better. He has what you need in terms of leadership at that position.”
MARCUS MARIOTA, Tennessee
Tier 2 votes: 2 | Tier 3 votes: 44 | Tier 4 votes: 9
Mariota enters his fifth-year option season facing two questions: Is he good enough to be a long-term starter? And can he get/stay healthy enough to play consistently? There’s more optimism regarding Mariota’s ability than his availability.
“I think they are looking for a guy next year,” a GM said. “Can’t stay healthy, I still question him in the pocket, a little disappointing.”
SAM DARNOLD, NY Jets
Tier 2 votes: 5 | Tier 3 votes: 37 | Tier 4 votes: 13
Darnold ranks a distant second to Mayfield among the first-round quarterbacks selected in 2018. Most voters were optimistic he would ascend this season.
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Voters lauded Darnold’s makeup while calling him solid but unspectacular as a passer and needing work as a protector of the football.
“He has to fix his penchant for the turnovers,” a GM said. “He did it in college; he did it as a rookie. He is a great kid. He is really young. He has a chance to do it, but until he takes care of that issue, I think that will always haunt him a little bit.”
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“He has some special qualities,” a GM said of Darnold. “There is something about Sam. He makes you feel like you are going to win.”
Tier 4
A Tier 4 quarterback could be an unproven player with some upside or a veteran who is ultimately best suited as a backup.
LAMAR JACKSON, Baltimore
Tier 2 votes: 1 | Tier 3 votes: 18 | Tier 4 votes: 34 | Tier 5 votes: 2
There are two kinds of Tier 4 quarterbacks: the veteran who ideally would not start all 16 games in a season (think Ryan Fitzpatrick), and the young player for which there simply is not enough evidence to make an evaluation (think Mahomes one year ago, when his résumé consisted of one start in a meaningless 2017 Week 17 game).
Jackson fits into the not-enough-evidence category. However, unlike with Mahomes last summer, a sizeable chunk of voters questioned whether Jackson could become a polished-enough passer for the Ravens to become contenders in the absence of a dominant defense and strong rushing attack. Some feared injuries would derail Jackson in the long term.
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One of the two voters who placed Jackson in the fifth tier called him a system-based quarterback in a system in which quarterbacks do not last long.
“I was high on Lamar coming out,” a personnel director said. “I think he’s a winner; he has the ‘it’ factor. It does not always show with his passing accuracy, but guys like Lamar who have the ability to electrify and bring their teammates together — that is a pretty cool deal.”
JOSH ALLEN, Buffalo
Tier 3 votes: 18 | Tier 4 votes: 36 | Tier 5 votes: 1
Some voters saw Allen as Buffalo’s version of Cam Newton now that Carolina alums Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane are running the Bills. These voters also noted that Buffalo is building a smaller receiving corps than Newton had with the Panthers, a potential concern for a team whose quarterback has accuracy issues.
“I think he’s a 4 with the arrow definitely pointing up,” an exec said. “I think he has to be careful. He is not as talented as Deshaun Watson, but everyone thinks because he can throw the ball 80 yards, that is a good thing. He holds the ball too long, he is not a quick decision-maker, he relies on his feet, and I don’t know over the long haul if you can stay healthy doing that. Where he is in his career, if you try to make him a passer, I’m afraid he’ll struggle.”
RYAN FITZPATRICK, Miami
Tier 3 votes: 17 | Tier 4 votes: 33 | Tier 5 votes: 5
Two quarterbacks represent the Dolphins in this survey because it’s not yet clear which veteran will be their starter. There’s a good chance, it seems, that Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen will start for the team at various points in 2019.
“Fitz is a 2 when he’s hot and a 5 when he’s not,” a quarterbacks coach said.
“Fitzy is — I want to play against Fitz!” a head coach said. “He don’t give a s—. He goes in, tears it up and then just falls off the map. For a Harvard guy, he does some crazy s—.”
CASE KEENUM, Washington
Tier 2 votes: 2 | Tier 3 votes: 15 | Tier 4 votes: 28 | Tier 5 votes: 10
Washington might go with Dwayne Haskins as its starter, but Keenum makes the appearance here because rookies aren’t part of the survey.
Fifteen voters placed Keenum in the third tier, and when they did, sometimes I’d joke that they just placed him in the same tier as someone much more appealing. One voter had Wentz and Keenum in the third tier for vastly different reasons.
“A 3.0 is different from a 3.9,” this voter said, “but my reason for the 3 on Keenum is with the right coordinator, in the right system, Case Keenum can have a year like he had with Minnesota, and a lot of the 4s cannot do that. Wentz is a 2 who has fallen to a 3 because of the injuries, until he learns to stay healthy while using his mobility.”
JOSH ROSEN, Miami
Tier 3 votes: 7 | Tier 4 votes: 47 | Tier 5 votes: 1
Rosen is not hated, despite his No. 32 ranking.
Voters felt the circumstances Rosen faced in Arizona were so dire that they could not be used as part of an evaluation. For that reason, voters almost reflexively placed Rosen in the fourth tier, citing a lack of information.
“When you talk to people who have been around Rosen, his ability to lead is the question,” a quarterbacks coach said.
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