2019 DRAFT
Mel Kiper, Jr. is thinking that Ohio State QB DWAYNE HASKINS might be coming out in the next draft – he’s glad to put him in the top 15 picks on his Big Board:
Welcome to the Big Board, Dwayne Haskins. The Ohio State first-year starter just lit up one of the best defenses in college football, and I had to put him in my ranking of the top 25 prospects in the 2019 NFL draft. Had to, even with just 12 career starts.
Also in my new Big Board? A pass-rusher jumps into the top five, and a wide receiver moves up after a huge performance.
A few notes before I get started, same as always:
These aren’t detailed scouting reports. I still have a lot of work to do on these prospects.
Note: One asterisk denotes the player is a junior, and two asterisks denote the player is a redshirt sophomore in 2018.
1. Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State*
Height: 6-foot-4 | Weight: 263 pounds | Previously: 1
Bosa is done at Ohio State, and it’s the right decision. Think about it this way: Now Bosa’s next injury will come after he’s a multimillionaire, not before. I don’t expect the injury to affect his draft stock. He is an elite pass-rusher who is advanced for his age in his technique — you can probably thank his brother, Joey, and dad, John, both former first-round picks. He’ll finish his Buckeyes career with 17.5 sacks in two-plus seasons, most of which were in a loaded line rotation. Bosa has a chance to run the table as my No. 1 overall prospect from my first Big Board to my last.
2. Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama**
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 289 | Previously: 2
Williams has been one of college football’s best players — not just defenders — this season. He dominated LSU with 2.5 sacks and 10 total tackles earlier this month, and he now has seven sacks and 16 tackles for loss on the season. He flew under the radar before the season because he played limited snaps in the Crimson Tide’s rotation in 2017, racking up 6.5 tackles for loss. When I wrote about Williams after the LSU game, I mentioned his ability to use his hands to disengage from blockers. He is so good at destroying double-teams. And remember, Williams hasn’t played much football — he has room to grow.
3. Devin White, LB, LSU*
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 240 | Previously: 5
White is one of my favorite prospects in this class. He had 17 tackles — 4 for loss — and 1 forced fumble in LSU’s seven-overtime loss to Texas A&M on Saturday. He was fantastic. During a spectacular breakout 2017 season, White had 133 tackles, 14 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks and an interception. He has dominated this season, too, with 115 tackles, including 12 for loss. I love his read-and-react ability. White is not a true pass-rusher, but he could play outside or inside linebacker at the next level. He has some versatility and is extremely athletic.
4. Josh Allen, OLB, Kentucky
Height: 6-5 | Weight: 230 | Previously: 9
I pegged Allen before the season as a potential Day 2 pick, as he broke out in 2017 with seven sacks, 66 tackles and an interception. He has been underrated in this class, and now he has a chance to be a top-10 pick. Allen is disruptive, and he has the length that NFL teams love as a 3-4 outside linebacker. He has 14 sacks this season, including a three-sack game against South Carolina, and has forced five fumbles.
5. Andraez “Greedy” Williams, CB, LSU**
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 184 | Previously: 3
Williams burst onto the scene in 2017, picking off six passes as a redshirt freshman and emerging as one of the best defensive backs in college football. He has two more picks this season. Williams has great ball skills and a long, lean frame, and he sticks to wide receivers. The third-year sophomore is the best lockdown corner in this class, a top-five talent if he leaves school early.
6. Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon*
Height: 6-6 | Weight: 233 | Previously: 4
Herbert is The Guy in this class … if he enters the draft. He’s the superstar quarterback whom teams dream about taking early. But he’s a junior, and the rumblings that he could return to school for his senior season are very real. If he doesn’t enter the draft this year, he’ll join a loaded 2020 class. Herbert had an up-and-down regular season, but the traits he flashed and the throws he can make are what make NFL scouts drool. He did miss some throws — I’d like to see more consistency. But this is a flawed quarterback class, and he’s clearly the No. 1 prospect. Herbert injured his shoulder in the win over Oregon State; let’s hope he’s OK for the Ducks’ bowl game.
7. Devin Bush, LB, Michigan*
Height: 5-11 | Weight: 233 | Previously: 6
Bush, who hurt his hip in the Wolverines’ loss at Ohio State, is a playmaker. He lines up all over the field and is always around the ball. He caught my eye early last season as a sophomore when he had 102 tackles, including 9.5 for loss, and an interception. He has 79 tackles and five sacks in 2018. I scouted his dad, Devin Bush Sr., a first-round pick out of Florida State in 1995 who had a 41-inch vertical. Bush and White are similar sideline-to-sideline, three-down players who will vie to be the first linebacker off the board.
8. Ed Oliver, DT, Houston*
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 292 | Previously: 7
I moved Oliver down five spots in my previous Big Board. He’s still a potential top-five pick, but people I’ve talked to believe he’s closer to 275 pounds than the 290-plus at which he’s listed, and he hasn’t developed consistent pass-rush moves. That’s why I have always said the comparison to Aaron Donald was unfair. Now, Oliver is still a game-wrecker and a great player — just play the East Carolina tape when he had five tackles for loss. And his first step is one of the fastest I’ve seen from a defensive tackle. Oliver missed three games with a knee injury, then played the first half of the loss to Memphis before shutting it down.
9. Rashan Gary, DT, Michigan*
Height: 6-6 | Weight: 283 | Previously: 8
Gary is one of the first underclassmen to declare for the draft, so there’s no mystery around him. Now he needs to have a strong pre-draft process. He dominates when he’s at his best; he just manhandles offensive linemen. Gary has a high ceiling. The problem? Consistency. A defender this big and this talented should create more pressure and disruptions. The former No. 1 overall recruit disappears too often for my liking. Gary could play end in a 3-4 defense or three-technique in a 4-3.
10. Deandre Baker, CB, Georgia
Height: 5-11 | Weight: 185 | Previously: 10
Quarterbacks who go after Baker don’t have much luck. He broke up nine passes and had three interceptions last season, and he has nine PBUs and two picks in 2018. Even after Georgia lost Roquan Smith, there is still a ton of talent on defense, and it starts with Baker, who has developed into an elite corner. He’ll have his hands full with Tua Tagovailoa and Alabama in Saturday’s SEC title game.
11. Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State**
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 220 | Previously: NR
When Todd McShay and I wrote about Haskins and Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa early in the season, it was about the 2020 draft class. Tagovailoa, of course, is a true sophomore. But Haskins is eligible for this draft because he’s a third-year sophomore, and there’s some buzz that he could leave school after just one season as the starter. There’s a lot to like about him as a prospect: he has a big arm, shows great anticipation on his throws, takes care of the ball and has solid athleticism (though he’s not a great runner). The high ceiling is there, and that’s what NFL teams draft for. With 46 touchdown passes and just eight picks — plus an utter domination of one of college football’s best defenses last week — Haskins has first-round potential.
12. Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama*
Height: 6-5 | Weight: 301 | Previously: 12
It’s not easy to start for Nick Saban as a freshman, and that’s exactly what Williams did when he lined up as the right tackle in Week 1 in 2016. Now he has started more than 30 games over the past three seasons, playing on the left side in 2017 and 2018. Williams could move inside to guard at the next level.
13. Jeffery Simmons, DT, Mississippi State*
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 300 | Previously: 11
One thing that really impressed me in Mississippi State’s loss to LSU earlier this season was Simmons’ hand usage. He knows how to disengage blockers and find the football. He had two touchdowns last season. In one game. He blocked a punt and recovered the ball in the end zone, then took a fumble 90 yards to the house in a rout of Louisiana Tech. The big man can move. Simmons, a disruptive player on the interior who could play in a 4-3 or 3-4 front, also chipped in five sacks and 12 tackles for loss in 2017. He has 14.5 tackles for loss this season. Simmons will have to answer to NFL teams about his 2016 arrest on a charge of simple assault.
14. Jachai Polite, OLB, Florida*
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 242 | Previously: 16
Polite is an edge rusher who keeps rising, like Kentucky’s Josh Allen, and he has been the Gators’ best player this season. He has 11 sacks and 16 total tackles for loss. Polite plays with a ton of energy. He’s aggressive. This is his first season as a full-time starter because he hurt his shoulder in the middle of the 2017 season. Polite plays with his hand in the dirt as a defensive end, but I think he’s probably a 3-4 outside linebacker in the NFL.
15. Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma*
Height: 5-9 | Weight: 168 | Previously: 24
Brown just had his best game of the season in the Sooners’ wild win over West Virginia, catching 11 passes for 243 yards and 2 touchdowns. I wrote in September about why I like Brown so much — he’s a big-play threat on every route. He has game-changing speed and is dynamic after the catch. Brown can play in the slot or outside, creating easy separation with that speed. And he’s not one-dimensional; he runs every route that NFL teams want to see. The question is size — at 5-9, he doesn’t look like a No. 1 wide receiver. But the NFL is changing: Speed is everything. He can be a deep threat at the next level, in the mold of John Ross, who went in the top 10 in the 2017 draft. Brown should be in the discussion for Round 1, especially after he works out at the combine.
16. Greg Little, OT, Ole Miss*
Height: 6-6 | Weight: 325 | Previously: 15
Little is a true left tackle. He won’t have to move to the right side in the NFL. He’s light on his feet and can get to the second level to take on linebackers, and he consistently overpowers SEC edge defenders at the point of attack. The former five-star high school prospect protected the blind side of Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray in high school.
17. Jaylon Ferguson, DE, Louisiana Tech
Height: 6-5 | Weight: 269 | Previously: 22
Ferguson is a prototypical 4-3 end with a big frame. He’s still growing into it. You can see some of that raw talent when he pushes around Conference USA offensive tackles. Ferguson has 15 sacks this season, and he’s up to a whopping 42.5 in his college career. The fifth-year senior is going to put his hand in the dirt and get up field. NFL teams always need edge rushers, and Ferguson is going to be in the mix
18. Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson*
Height: 6-5 | Weight: 265 | Previously: 19
I thought Ferrell could have been a first-round pick in the 2018 draft as a third-year sophomore. He’s that good. He had 9.5 sacks last season and has 10.5 this season. He terrorized Texas A&M and Georgia Southern with two sacks apiece and multiple pressures. Clemson has one of the most talented defensive lines I’ve ever seen in college football, and Ferrell is the top prospect.
19. Dexter Lawrence, DT, Clemson
Height: 6-5 | Weight: 340 | Previously: 23
As I wrote in my way-too-early Big Board, big-bodied guys who move like Lawrence and can eat gaps don’t last long in the draft. And Lawrence has shown that he is more than a plugger — he had nine sacks in his first two seasons. Turn on the tape, and you’ll see Lawrence take on blockers and throw them aside. He hasn’t made a huge impact this season, however, as he has only 32 total tackles and five tackles for loss.
20. Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 310 | Previously: NR
Like Ferrell, Wilkins skipped the 2018 draft and decided to return for another season at Clemson. And like Ferrell, Wilkins could have gone on Day 1 this past April. Last season, I compared Wilkins to former Alabama defensive lineman Jonathan Allen, because he’s scheme-versatile and could play end or tackle in the NFL. Wilkins has 12.5 tackles for loss this season. And watch him take the pitch in the video above.
21. Deionte Thompson, S, Alabama**
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 194 | Previously: 14
Nick Saban and Alabama consistently produce NFL-ready defensive backs, and Thompson could be the next in line. After playing in the rotation most of the past two seasons, Thompson stepped in to start two games at the end of 2017. He didn’t look out of place. He has been spectacular as a full-time starter this season, racking up 62 tackles and two interceptions. Thompson has great range and is a natural playmaker. The third-year sophomore has emerged as one of college football’s best all-around defensive backs.
22. Brian Burns, OLB/DE, Florida State*
Height: 6-5 | Weight: 235 | Previously: 17
Burns, who had 10 sacks this season, can bend the edge as well as any other pass-rusher in this class. He has a lean frame, but he’s quick off the ball and can use his speed to get to quarterbacks before offensive tackles have a chance to move. Burns had 13.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks last season, after 9.5 sacks as a freshman in 2016. He needs more time in the weight room, but he could grow into a 4-3 end in time. There’s a chance he rises even higher after the combine.
23. Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn*
Height: 6-5 | Weight: 325 | Previously: 13
It’s tough to miss Brown on the 2017 Auburn tape. He bullied offensive linemen during a breakout season in which he had nine tackles for loss and 56 total tackles. He’s still raw and still developing pass-rushing moves, but the size and athleticism are there to be a top-10 pick. He has 9.5 tackles for loss this season, including a dominant performance against Tennessee last month. He also had 2.5 tackles for loss in Auburn’s win over Texas A&M.
24. Julian Love, CB, Notre Dame*
Height: 5-11 | Weight: 193 | Previously: 20
As I wrote in my look at underrated prospects earlier this month, Love could be a No. 1 corner at the next level. He just keeps improving. He has 15 pass breakups and an interception this season and is developing into a shutdown corner. He had three picks in 2017, when he started every game as a sophomore. Love is one of my favorite prospects in this class, and he’ll get a shot at a national title, as Notre Dame is a lock for the College Football Playoff.
25. Daniel Jones, QB, Duke*
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 220 | Previously: 18
I wrote about Jones’ rise a few weeks ago. As I noted, the most impressive trait I’ve seen from Jones this season is his ability to buy time in the pocket and use his feet to get square and make a throw. He has thrown 27 interceptions in his three seasons as the starter, and he forces passes at times, but he has mostly cut down on the poor throws this season, as he has only seven picks. We also have to mention his coach, David Cutcliffe, who groomed Peyton Manning and is seen as a quarterback whisperer. I like what Jones has shown in 2018, and I expect him to be in the mix as a first- or second-round pick in April, competing to be the top signal-caller off the board.
And here is the latest projected draft order from ESPN:
Below is FPI’s projected first-round order for the 2019 draft, based on each team’s average draft position in the simulations. While each team’s current record is listed below, remember that the order is based on the record the model believes the teams will have after 16 games.
1. Arizona Cardinals (2-9)
Average draft position: 2.0
FPI chance to earn top pick: 43 percent
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 99 percent
2. San Francisco 49ers (2-9)
Average draft position: 2.6
FPI chance to earn top pick: 31 percent
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 95 percent
3. Oakland Raiders (2-9)
Average draft position: 2.9
FPI chance to earn top pick: 18 percent
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 94 percent
4. New York Jets (3-8)
Average draft position: 4.2
FPI chance to earn top pick: 7 percent
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 80 percent
5. New York Giants (3-8)
Average draft position: 6.4
FPI chance to earn top pick: 1 percent
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 47 percent
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-7)
Average draft position: 8.4
FPI chance to earn top pick: <1 percent
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 19 percent
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-8)
Average draft position: 8.4
FPI chance to earn top pick: <1 percent
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 21 percent
8. Detroit Lions (4-7)
Average draft position: 8.9
FPI chance to earn top pick: <1 percent
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 17 percent
9. Cleveland Browns (4-6-1)
Average draft position: 9.7
FPI chance to earn top pick: <1 percent
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 10 percent
10. Miami Dolphins (5-6)
Average draft position: 10.8
FPI chance to earn top pick: <1 percent
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 8 percent
Full Projection For Picks 1-32 In 2019 Draft
1 ARI 2.0
2 SF 2.6
3 OAK 2.9
4 NYJ 4.2
5 NYG 6.4
6 TB 8.4
7 JAX 8.4
8 DET 8.9
9 CLE 9.7
10 MIA 10.8
11 BUF 11.0
12 ATL 11.4
13 CIN 14.2
14 PHI 15.6
15 DEN 16.3
16 WSH 16.8
17 GB 16.8
18 TEN 17.3
19 CAR 18.0
20 IND 19.2
21 BAL 20.2
22 OAK (from DAL) 21.3
23 MIN 22.3
24 SEA 22.6
25 OAK (from CHI) 25.2
26 HOU 25.3
27 LAC 25.7
28 PIT 26.3
29 NE 28.2
30 KC 29.4
31 LAR 30.0
32 GB (from NO) 30.3
So 3, 22,25 for Oakland at the moment.
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