The Daily Briefing Friday, April 1, 2022

Larry Holder of The Athletic used two nerd stats EPA (Expected Points Added) and IQR to look at all the QBs.  We recommend the whole thing, but we will only pull out some and place them with their team, below.  Here is Holder’s explanation:

I examined each projected starting quarterback, as of now, using some non-traditional metrics:

Offensive Total Expected Points Added per play from 2018 through ’21 (via TruMedia)

IQR, Sports Info Solutions’ proprietary QB metric, which builds on the traditional passer rating formula by considering the value of a quarterback independent of results outside of his control, such as dropped passes, dropped interceptions, throwaways, etc.

NFC NORTH

DETROIT

Larry Holder’s QB analysis:

PLAYER                    OFF EPA (2018-21)                             IQR 2021

Jared Goff                         0.08 (26)                                         94.3

The Lions seem content to roll with Jared Goff for the 2022 season. In terms of EPA, Goff hasn’t exactly been trending upward in the past four years: 0.21 in 2018, 0.10 in 2019, minus-0.01 in 2020, minus-0.02 in 2021. His IQRs the past three seasons indicate Goff “is who he is,” and that’s mediocre at best: 90.3 in 2019, 94.6 in 2020, 94.3 in 2021. Drafting a quarterback in Day 1 or 2 this year would make a lot of sense to me for Detroit. I’m not sure head coach Dan Campbell feels the same way.

MINNESOTA

Larry Holder’s QB analysis:

PLAYER                    OFF EPA (2018-21)                             IQR 2021

Kirk Cousins                  0.13 (15)                                             106.1

Cousins produced his worst IQR in his past three seasons with a 106.1 rate last season; he had a 116.7 TQR in 2019 and 111.1 TQR in 2020. “Worst” is a relative term, though, considering Cousins’ 2021 rate still ranked sixth in the league. The same goes for Cousins’ EPA the past three seasons: 0.22 in 2019, 0.19 in 2020, 0.11 in 2021. Cousins and Prescott share a similar storyline. Both can produce, but how far can each take their respective teams?

NFC EAST

DALLAS

Alexandra Davis is suing the man she says is her father, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones, even though Jones’ attorneys say he has provided her and her mother with plenty of cash and prizes already.  Don Van Natta, Jr. of ESPN.com:

Jerry Jones has paid nearly $3 million to the woman who says she is his biological daughter, including her full tuition at SMU and a $70,000 Range Rover on her 16th birthday, and to her mother, according to the Little Rock, Arkansas, lawyer who delivered the payments on behalf of the Dallas Cowboys owner.

Lawyer Don Jack told ESPN on Thursday that he made regular payments on Jones’ behalf to Alexandra Davis, the 25-year-old congressional aide who filed a paternity lawsuit against Jones on March 3, and her mother, Cynthia Spencer Davis, whom Jones met in 1995 when she was a ticket-counter agent for American Airlines in Arkansas.

“On numerous occasions I have made payments on behalf of Mr. Jones to Cindy and Alex Davis,” Jack said in a statement. A longtime friend of Jones, Jack said he struck an agreement on Jones’ behalf with Spencer Davis in 1995, paying her $375,000 and providing “for monthly payments for child support which ultimately totaled over $2 million.”

Jones has not acknowledged that Davis is his biological daughter. Asked why he used the term “child support” in his statement, Jack said, “I used the term child support because that’s what the agreement calls it.” Asked if the “child support” payments indicate that Jones is Davis’ father, Jack paused for five seconds before saying, “I am not going to answer that one. My statement speaks for itself.”

Asked why Jones paid millions to Davis and her mother if Davis was not his daughter, Jones spokesman Jim Wilkinson declined to comment.

Jack and Wilkinson declined to release a copy of the agreement that set up two trusts that have paid Davis and her mother more than $1.3 million over the past 25 years. Two additional lump sum payments are due to Davis when she turns 26 and 28 years old.

Through her attorney, Davis has asked a court to revoke the agreement struck by her mother when she was 1 and for Jones to be declared her father. Her lawyer, Andrew A. Bergman, has said repeatedly that she is not seeking money and that, after years of being shunned by Jones, his client wants only to be able to put his name on her birth certificate.

But Jack said he got a far different impression of Davis’ motives when he met with her and her mother for dinner at a Dallas steakhouse several years ago.

“In that meeting, Alex read to me a personal letter she had drafted to Jerry Jones in which she expressed her dissatisfaction with what she had received and sought $20 million,” Jack said. “She stated that if that amount was paid, she would not bother Mr. Jones again and would keep their relationship confidential.”

Neither Jack nor Wilkinson could provide proof of the letter or a date of the dinner. Wilkinson said it was “three or four years ago.”

“Let’s see the letter,” Bergman said Thursday. “And let’s see the evidence that more money was paid beyond those agreements. And I would ask why? Is Jerry saying that money is a substitute for being a father? Do the millions make him a good father and do they make my client an extortionist? Don’t forget the money was contingent on her being silent.”

Davis, an aide to U.S. Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-Texas), has declined to comment to ESPN and other media outlets.

In a court filing Monday, Jones accused Davis of filing the lawsuit after attempting unsuccessfully to extort money from him, an assertion adamantly denied by Bergman. Wilkinson said the dinner meeting with Jack supports the allegation.

“This clearly demonstrates that money has always been the ultimate goal here,” Wilkinson said. “And sadly this is just one part of a more broad calculated and concerted effort that has been going on for some time by multiple people with various different agendas.”

Jack told ESPN that periodic requests from Davis and her mother for money and other expenses exceeded the amount that Jones agreed to pay in the trust agreement by nearly $1 million over the years.

Those additional expenses include $33,000 for Davis’ “Sweet 16” birthday party, which was featured on the reality TV show “Big Rich Texas.” In addition, Jones paid “all of Alex’s education expenses,” including four years at SMU and one year at a private high school, Wilkinson said. Jones also paid $24,000 for Davis to take a trip abroad after she graduated from college and $25,000 for Davis and her mother to take a Christmas vacation in Paris, Wilkinson said.

“The facts clearly show that millions of dollars have been paid,” Wilkinson said, “and on top of that, a $20 million shakedown attempt was made. I think this speaks for itself as to the motives.”

On March 10, a demand letter from a Jones attorney connects the Davis paternity lawsuit and numerous other recent Cowboys scandals to the ongoing contentious divorce battle between Jones’ daughter, Charlotte Jones Anderson, and her ex-husband, Shy Anderson. The letter, obtained by ESPN, advises Anderson to preserve documents “to determine whether a conspiracy exists among yourself and others including, without limitation, certain of your lawyers.” The letter to Anderson states that Jones has asked attorney Charles L. Babcock “to investigate whether he has potential claims against you and others for conversion [extortion] and other torts.”

The letter advises Jones’ longtime son-in-law to preserve documents and other evidence in 10 categories, including communications he might have had with Davis and her mother. Other specified topics that lawyers asked Anderson to preserve include “All efforts to obtain monies from Mr. Jones directly or indirectly” and “All efforts to obtain information you and/or your counsel consider embarrassing to Mr. Jones.”

“The evidence preservation letter speaks for itself,” Wilkinson said Thursday. The divorce lawyer for Anderson, Lisa G. Duffee, did not return messages from ESPN.

Wilkinson said Bergman, the lawyer for Davis, held two meetings with Levi A. McCathern, an outside lawyer for Jones, and his law partner after filing the lawsuit March 3 in which Bergman allegedly demanded money to settle the case.

Wilkinson quoted Bergman as saying in the first meeting, “If you want this just to go away, it’s going to cost you Zeke or Dak money.”

“There was never a discussion about a nonmonetary resolution. Money was always part of the deal,” Wilkinson said.

Bergman said Thursday that he never asked for a dollar to settle the case.

“It is absolutely false — and they know it — that I ever demanded money on behalf of Alex,” Bergman said. “They said, ‘What does she want?’ And I said she wants to establish parentage, and Jerry can do it cooperatively or not. Levi said Jerry’s not going to do that because of Mama Gene. Levi said Jerry said Alex will never be part of our family in a picture when we raise money for the Salvation Army. That’s the truth.”

Wilkinson said McCathern strongly denied saying those words to Bergman.

“Now they’ve changed their story yet again,” Wilkinson said. “First it wasn’t about money. Now it is about money. And now they are on three sides of a two-sided issue. They are all over the map here. Pick a story and stick with it. This is clownish.”

A hearing scheduled to determine if the complaint remains sealed was canceled Thursday after lawyers for Jones withdrew their request to have it sealed. It is not known when the lawyers will return to court.

NEW YORK GIANTS

Larry Holder’s QB analysis:

PLAYER                    OFF EPA (2018-21)                             IQR 2021

Daniel Jones                -0.03 (55)                                             88.6

Three years as a starter and your EPA is a negative number? Now that’s something. But that’s Daniel Jones at this point. His rookie season was the only year without a negative rate, and that was a 0.00 in 2019. Jones has basically been the same passer the past three seasons in IQR terms: 90.1 in 2019, 83.3 in 2020 and 88.6 in 2021. New Giants coach Brian Daboll helped develop Allen into a monster in Buffalo, and team owner John Mara continues pushing the blame off Jones, but something has to give at some point.

WASHINGTON

Congressional Democrats, who really don’t have any law enforcement powers, have launched a frenzied examination of Washington’s finances, fueling it with leaks to sympathetic media.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

Earlier today, the Washington Post reported that the Congressional investigation of the Washington Commanders has begun to consider financial improprieties. Now, some details are being added to this new branch of the probe.

A.J. Perez of FrontOfficeSports.com reports that the House Committee on Oversight & Reform is exploring whether the team used two sets of books.

Perez explains that the committee is exploring several issues including: (1) whether the debt load assumed last year by Snyder is impacting the team’s finances; (2) whether the team used deceptive accounting practices; and (3) whether a disparity exits between compensation paid to men and women.

During Thursday’s #PFTPM, Myles Simmons and I kicked around the question of whether someone may have deliberately made the committee aware of the financial issues, potentially in the hopes of making it much easier for the league to eradicate itself of Snyder — if the league truly has reached its limit of deal with the man who bought the franchise in 1999.

Regardless of how the issue came to light, it’s a potentially serious issue. And it could, depending upon the evidence and the manner in which it’s handled, create possible criminal liability.

NFC SOUTH

TAMPA BAY

Larry Holder’s QB analysis:

PLAYER                    OFF EPA (2018-21)                             IQR 2021

Tom Brady                      0.15 (10)                                           108.8

Trying to map out trends for Blaine Gabbert and Kyle Trask would’ve been quite the challenge. For this study, I’m lucky Brady decided to return. Brady’s 0.14 EPA ranked seventh among quarterbacks in 2021, though it’s a slight dip from the 0.20 EPA mark he posted in 2020. Meanwhile, Brady’s 108.8 IQR ranked fourth in the league in 2021, but it’s also down from his 114.2 IQR in 2020, which was the second-best IQR in the last four seasons. It’s still pretty clear that Brady stands with Rodgers as the top quarterbacks in the NFC.

– – –

Considering what he had to work with, the DB never thought Todd Bowles hindered the Jets with his coaching while going 24-40.  But he says, he is now a better coach. Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

New Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles spent four years as head coach of the Jets, and it did not go well: He never made the playoffs and was fired with a 24-40 record. But Bowles thinks the results will be different in his new job.

Bowles said that after he got fired, he looked within himself and saw things he needs to do differently.

 “I think when you take a head job [for the first time] you have to wear a lot of hats, but you had never experienced wearing those hats,” he said. “When you understand that going in . . . without the experience I think you tend to do things a little differently. You have to be man enough to know when you can change things. Usually when people get fired they blame everybody else. The first thing I did was look within myself, and there were a lot of things I can do better.”

Bowles mentioned delegating to his coaching staff instead of trying to do everything himself as something he’ll be better at now, and Bowles has already inherited a successful staff from Bruce Arians rather than having to build a staff himself.

But the biggest difference is that the Buccaneers have better players than the Jets had. With the Jets, Bowles’ quarterbacks were Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bryce Petty, Geno Smith, Josh McCown and Sam Darnold. With the Bucs, Bowles’ quarterback is Tom Brady. That alone is the kind of change that can make a coach look like a genius.

NFC WEST

SAN FRANCISCO

Larry Holder’s QB analysis:

PLAYER                    OFF EPA (2018-21)                                     IQR 2021

Jimmy Garoppolo                   0.16 (8)                                               98.2

You’d think any team would love to have a quarterback with a 0.16 EPA mark from the past four seasons, yet Jimmy Garoppolo’s path still seems lost. His 0.14 EPA rate from 2021 ranked ninth in the league, ahead of those from Prescott, Cousins and Allen. Garoppolo’s EPA ranged from good to very good the past four seasons: 0.13 in 2018, 0.19 in 2019, 0.14 in 2020, 0.14 in 2021. But Garoppolo has produced just one season with an IQR above 100. That’s probably why Trey Lance is on the roster …

LOS ANGELES RAMS

The City of St. Louis has stuck the Rams/the NFL with a $790 million bill.  The NFL has appointed a special committee to try to resolve that matter.  Daniel Kaplan of The Athletic:

NFL owners at their annual meeting again this week vigorously debated behind closed doors who among them should pay for the legal settlement with government entities in Missouri over the 2016 relocation of the Rams to Los Angeles.

So sensitive is the topic — whether the $790 million bill should fall solely on Rams owner Stan Kroenke or be spread across the other clubs too — NFL commissioner Roger Goodell several months ago appointed a five-owner ad hoc committee to try to resolve the issue, ownership sources said.

It could not be determined the identities of all the owners on the committee, but one owner source assured that both sides of the issue have advocates in the group. Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones, perhaps Kroenke’s staunchest defender, is not on the committee, this owner source said.

Kroenke signed an indemnification agreement when he won the right to relocate the Rams in 2016, meaning he would cover all costs associated with the move. The next year, St. Louis, St. Louis County and the government entity that owns the stadium sued, arguing the Rams broke the NFL relocation guidelines that appear to require teams to make a good faith effort to stay in home markets.

The lawsuit was viewed early on by the NFL as a nuisance, as the league never felt the plaintiffs could prove standing as a party to the relocation bylaws. But the state court judge — appointed by Governor Jay Nixon who later went to work for one of the plaintiffs’ law firms in the case — consistently refused to dismiss the case and ruled the government entities had standing under Missouri law.

Kroenke has several arguments for why he should not cover the full settlement, which the NFL paid in December. The competing project at the time of the 2016 owners’ vote for the L.A. market, led by the Chargers and Raiders, sent material to Gov. Nixon’s office that laid out how arguably the Rams did not follow the relocation bylaws, Kroenke has charged, sources said.

That insight formed the backbone of the St. Louis legal case and made it more difficult to get the case dismissed, the sources said relaying the Rams’ position. Kroenke also argues that his billions of dollars reclaimed L.A. for the NFL, topped off by the well-received SoFi stadium, and he should get some credit for that.

The other side is Kroenke agreed to indemnify the other owners, without which they would have never agreed to the Rams relocation. And his franchise value has soared by billions of dollars, and he has a tremendous real estate opportunity in Hollywood Park.

When the NFL in December agreed to settle the St. Louis case, the resolution called for the issue of who pays to go to the finance committee. That has changed.

“The actual resolution is the commissioner, with consultation with the finance committee,” said a source familiar with the NFL’s workings, on how the issue was to get settled. “But clearly, you know, if they set up a special committee, the finance committee wanted to punt this to somebody else.”

Kroenke’s desire to not cover the full cost of, at the time, a prospective settlement, emerged in October 2021. ESPN reported the blow by blow from inside an owners’ meeting room in New York, directly quoting the combatants.

Beyond the vitriol expressed between owners, that someone or more than one owner or league executive would provide a media outlet with either a recording or a transcript of a highly sensitive internal debate deeply surprised many in the sport.

The 31 club owners (the Green Bay Packers are owned by shareholders) are a highly exclusive and powerful group, so typically they take great pains not to air their dirty laundry.

But Kroenke has clearly hit a sensitive spot for many owners who believe he has exhibited bad faith by appearing to backtrack on his indemnification commitment.

– – –

Those cross currents are being tested on the ad hoc committee on the St. Louis settlement money. The NFL team owner source on the committee appeared to concede the commissioner in the end would have to make a decision.

When that happens is unclear. From a money angle, there is no real pressure to decide: the league tapped a low-interest rate line of credit to pay St. Louis. But given the contentious voices behind closed doors at the annual meeting, the issue is far more than a minor accounting issue, but is one that speaks to how owners navigate their commitments to one another.

– – –

The Rams have landed LB BOBBY WAGNER who fits their veteran style of signing.ESPN.com:

Pro Bowl linebacker Bobby Wagner will be staying in the NFC West next season despite his release by the Seattle Seahawks earlier this month.

Wagner agreed to terms on a five-year contract with the Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams, the team announced Thursday.

Financial terms were not disclosed, but sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter the deal is for $50 million and can be worth up to $65 million if Wagner reaches incentives.

It will mark a homecoming for Wagner, who was born in Los Angeles and attended high school in Ontario, California, about 35 miles east of the city. Wagner becomes the latest big-name player to join a star-studded Rams defense that already includes defensive tackle Aaron Donald and cornerback Jalen Ramsey.

Donald (five), Wagner (four) and Ramsey (three) have all earned at least three first-team All-Pro selections over the past five seasons. Only six defensive players in the NFL have achieved that feat over that time period, according to ESPN Stats & Information research.

The Rams had a need at one of their inside linebacker spots after they declined to tender Troy Reeder as a restricted free agent.

The Baltimore Ravens also were in the mix to sign Wagner before he decided to sign with the Rams. The Dallas Cowboys also had interest in Wagner.

Wagner publicly and privately voiced his unhappiness over how the Seahawks handled his release earlier this month. Seahawks general manager John Schneider and coach Pete Carroll expressed their regret over how they communicated those plans to Wagner.

Wagner, 31, was the last remaining member of the star-studded defenses that led Seattle to its lone world championship and a return trip to Super Bowl XLIX after the 2014 season.

Wagner, the Seahawks’ all-time tackles leader with 1,383, is coming off a 170-tackle season that earned him his eighth Pro Bowl nod in 10 seasons. He posted that personal best despite missing all but one snap of the final two games with a knee sprain.

While Wagner didn’t make as many impact plays as in some of his best seasons, he recorded an interception, a sack, a forced fumble and five passes defended in 2021 en route to a second-team All-Pro selection.

In 2020, Wagner was one of 22 defenders named by the Pro Football Hall of Fame to the All-Decade Team for the 2010s. His Hall of Fame-worthy résumé also includes six first-team All-Pro selections, two second-team All-Pro selections and eight Pro Bowls nods, tied for second most in franchise history.

The Ravens apparently finished second in the battle to sign Wagner.

AFC WEST

LAS VEGAS

Larry Holder’s QB analysis:

PLAYER                    OFF EPA (2018-21)                             IQR 2021

Derek Carr                     0.10 (20)                                           98.7

You could point to plenty of reasons why Derek Carr’s ERA and IQR numbers dipped last season: Jon Gruden’s firing, Henry Ruggs’ release, the offensive line’s sluggish pass protection. Regardless, Carr’s IQR rate has fallen in the past few seasons, from 111.8 in 2019 to 111.1 in 2020 to 98.7 in 2021. Carr also threw a career-high 14 picks last season and his EPA dropped to 0.09 after a 0.15 rate in both 2019 and ’20. You know who might help those rates? The newly acquired Davante Adams at wideout.

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE

Larry Holder’s QB analysis:

PLAYER                    OFF EPA (2018-21)               IQR 2021

Lamar Jackson            0.14 (11)                                 93.7

Jackson is still waiting for a new deal entering the fifth and final year of his rookie contract, but there’s no denying he’s a unique, dynamic player. That said, his EPA has been in a freefall the past three years: 0.34 in 2019 (No. 3 overall in the last four seasons), 0.11 in 2020, then 0.03 in 2021. The same is true with Jackson’s IQR the past three years: 125.4 in 2019 (second-best overall in the last four seasons), 104.4 in 2020, 93.7 in 2021. Somewhere in the middle of those last three seasons would be very good for Jackson.

CINCINNATI

Larry Holder’s QB analysis:

PLAYER                    OFF EPA (2018-21)                IQR 2021

Joe Burrow                0.09 (22)                                  113.5

Joe Burrow might still be bumming from losing Super Bowl LVI, yet he should take pride in the fact that he improved greatly from Year 1 to Year 2. His 2021 0.14 EPA ranked eighth in the league, and his 113.5 IQR ranked second behind only Aaron Rodgers. Then the Bengals aggressively improved the offensive line this offseason, landing tackle La’el Collins, guard Alex Cappa and center Ted Karras. Burrow might not have to run for his life anymore.

CLEVELAND

It wasn’t so much that a team would give out a massive fully guaranteed contract to a franchise QB, but that it would go to as problematic a signee as QB DESHAUN WATSON that has some owners perturbed.  Daniel Kaplan of The Athletic:

A strong current of discontent flowed over the Cleveland Browns’ Deshaun Watson contract, which guaranteed the quarterback, who is facing 22 civil lawsuits alleging sexual offenses, $230 million.

With the guarantee, his per season average dramatically increases the percentage of the salary cap paid to the position, which is likely to cause other quarterbacks to seek similar paydays.

“In fact, that’s, you know, $80 million above the highest other contract ever given, guaranteed in the history of the league, 102 years old,” Atlanta Falcons owner Arthur Blank told reporters. “You know, it says a lot and whether or not most teams, the NFL or any of the teams in the NFL would have committed to that kind of contract. Certainly, it is a huge commitment.”

Baltimore Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti was more direct, telling reporters, “I don’t know that he should’ve been the first guy to get a fully guaranteed contract. To me, that’s something that is groundbreaking, and it’ll make negotiations harder with others.”

AFC SOUTH

TENNESSEE

Larry Holder’s QB analysis:

PLAYER                    OFF EPA (2018-21)                            IQR 2021

Ryan Tannehill             0.13 (16)                                              88.6

Ryan Tannehill’s poor play in the Titans’ AFC divisional playoff loss to the Bengals probably still burns within the brains of Titans fans, especially after he had a few too many similar games in the regular season. That’s why Tannehill’s 2021 IQR was his lowest in his past six seasons. His IQR rates from the last three seasons were: 121.8 in 2019 (fourth-best overall in the last three seasons), 107.5 in 2020 and 88.6 in 2021. Maybe a healthy Derrick Henry will take heat off Tannehill, and the addition of wideout Robert Woods might help as well.

AFC EAST

MIAMI

Larry Holder analyzes TUA:

PLAYER                    OFF EPA                                 IQR 2021

Tua Tagovailoa          -0.01 (49)                                   91.5

Two years in and skeptics of Tua Tagovailoa rightfully exist. His 2021 0.01 EPA is slightly below the 2021 league average of 0.04, though his IQR did jump from his rookie season, as Tagovailoa compiled a 91.5 IQR in 2021, up from 83.2 in 2020. Not great, but improving. Plus, help for Tagovailoa is on the way with All-Pro wide receiver Tyreek Hill and Pro Bowl left tackle Terron Armstead heading to Miami. Teddy Bridgewater is lurking if Tua can’t cut it.

THIS AND THAT

AWARD OF EXCELLENCE

The NFL Hall of Fame has come up with a program to recognize NFL lifers in four categories – trainers, equipment managers, public relations and assistant coaches.  The first class of 20 winners of The Award of Excellence was announced last week with some indeed excellent recipients:

Equipment Managers, Trainers Among Honorees In New Hall Of Fame Initiative

There always have been Unsung Heroes in the NFL…individuals who are not the highest-paid, but who work long hours for NFL clubs primarily for the love of the sport and its players. You as player-alumni know who they are.

The Pro Football Hall of Fame this week announced a new “Award of Excellence” program to recognize in Canton many of these longtime team employees who are equipment managers, trainers, assistant coaches, and public relations directors.    An overall total of 20 individuals in these four categories will be invited to Canton this August to be honored as part of Enshrinement Weekend. Their names will be prominently on display inside a designated area of the Hall.

Pro Football Hall of Fame President Jim Porter says the recognition is long overdue for many  team personnel.

“These 20 outstanding individuals,” says Porter “not only helped to deliver results on the field but they also helped to promote the game’s growth, safety and popularity over several decades of devotion to their teams and to the NFL.”

The announcement of this initiative was made last Monday on a Sirius radio show which is co-hosted by NFL alum Rich Gannon.

“These awards are very well deserved”, said Gannon, an 18-year veteran quarterback on four different clubs.  “I worked with many of these guys through the years.  This program is an incredible recognition for a job well done by men who worked long hours over 30, 40 or even 50 years in the league. In particular, the equipment managers and the trainers were terrific guys who turned into good friends of mine over the years.  I shared many laughs with them and have stayed in touch.  Their names now will be in the Hall of Fame forever! Good for them.”

The Hall of Fame’s current plans are to honor an additional group of individuals with these Awards each year during future Enshrinement Weekends.

The 20 members of the Inaugural Class for the Hall’s  “Award of Excellence” are:

EQUIPMENT MANAGERS

Sid Brooks (Chargers)

Ed Carroll (Browns, Ravens)

Tony Parisi (Steelers)

Dan “Chief” Simmons (Cardinals, Saints)

Whitey Zimmerman (Cardinals, Falcons)

TRAINERS

George Anderson (Raiders)

Otho Davis (Colts, Eagles)

John Omohundro (Cardinals)

Jerry Rhea (Rams, Falcons)

Fred Zamberletti (Vikings)

ASSISTANT COACHES

Alex Gibbs (Broncos, Raiders, Chargers, Colts, Chiefs, Falcons, Texans, Seahawks)

Jimmy Raye (49ers, Lions, Falcons, Rams, Bucs, Patriots, Chiefs, Redskins, Jets, Raiders)

Terry Robiskie (Raiders, Redskins, Browns, Dolphins, Falcons, Titans, Bills, Jaguars)

Fritz Shurmur (Lions, Patriots, Rams, Cardinals, Packers)

Ernie Zampese (Chargers, Jets, Rams, Cowboys, Patriots, Redskins)

PUBLIC RELATIONS DIRECTORS

Joe Browne (League Office)

Charlie Dayton (Buccaneers, Redskins, Falcons, Panthers)

Joe Gordon (Steelers)

Jim Saccomano (Broncos)

Gary Wright (Seahawks)

We can vouch that they did a great job in selecting the PR directors.

2022 DRAFT

Jordan Reid and Matt Miller look at EDGE KEYVON THIBODEAUX and his fall from the top:

How far could Oregon defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux drop?

Miller: One year ago, as we looked ahead to this draft class, the Oregon pass-rusher was in the mix to be the No. 1 overall prospect. Now, a month from the start of Round 1, Thibodeaux is one of the most polarizing prospects in the class. Following a breakout true freshman season in 2019 in which he posted nine sacks, he struggled through a pandemic-shortened 2020 and had just three sacks in seven games — a stat his supporters would point to as productive considering the attention opposing offensive lines were giving him. The concerns began last season, however, when Thibodeaux left the Ducks’ Week 1 game in a walking boot.

Now, as scouts and general managers assemble their final rankings, Thibodeaux is falling in the eyes of NFL teams as opposed to competing to be the No. 1 pick. Here’s what I know about the reasons behind his drop:

Production: Thibodeaux didn’t show the quickness and burst expected on his way to seven sacks and 12 tackles for loss — good numbers, but not those expected of a player deemed a front-runner for the No. 1 pick. Beyond those numbers, scouts and front-office execs with whom I’ve spoken have praised his talent but consistently questioned his motor. “Lack of fire” is not the type of label prospects want.

Interviews: Reporting on prospects’ interviews with NFL teams is always tough because I want to be fair to the player, which is why it’s important to not report information gleaned from a single source. More than half a dozen scouts have told me that Thibodeaux did not impress in interviews with their teams. The word consistently used to describe his interviews is “poor.” That’s a red flag, especially for teams looking to use a premium pick.

Injury: Thibodeaux sprained his ankle in September, an injury that takes time to heal. One scout charged with evaluating Thibodeaux, however, thought that he was timid after the injury and said that those within the Oregon program agreed.

Of course, the above concerns could be for naught, as it takes only one team to love a prospect. The Lions or Texans could take Thibodeaux at No. 2 or 3, but the word from sources in the league is that Thibodeaux is expected to be drafted outside the top five picks and could even be selected outside the top 10.

Looking at the draft order, if the Seahawks (No. 9) and Jets (No. 10) don’t select Thibodeaux, he could slide further, as Washington, Minnesota, Houston and Baltimore are not expected to select pass-rushers at picks Nos. 11-14. A lot can change once the draft starts and panic sets in, but one month out it’s not unrealistic to think Thibodeaux could be on the board for the Eagles at No. 15.

– – –

Cynthia Freelund of NFL.com has an “analytics” Mock Draft – and it won’t let sentiment propel any of the QBs into her first round.

As explained in my Mock Draft 1.0, I always look to maximize each selection according to win-share value added for the upcoming season. Of course, my approach simultaneously factors in the free agency/trade acquisitions that have already occurred, as well as those that could be coming down the pike. And no, I do not allow myself to trade picks.

With all of that in mind — and with the flurry of activity that has already reshuffled rosters across the NFL — I had something pretty interesting happen in this first-round simulation, something that’s never happened before in all the years I’ve been modeling drafts in this manner:

Zero quarterbacks are selected in the following 32 picks.

Admittedly, this is HIGHLY unlikely to occur on April 28. This league is just too quarterback-obsessed, with a number of teams looking for a long-term solution at the position. In fact, my models — which estimate where players will actually go — put the odds that at least three quarterbacks are drafted in the first round at 71.1 percent, and four at 58.6 percent.

But in the following exercise, the game’s most important position is completely absent from Round 1, providing a different-looking rundown than you’re accustomed to — which is fine! Use this mock as an opportunity to weigh short-term vs. long-term strategies.

1 Jacksonville Jaguars

Aidan Hutchinson      Michigan · Edge · Senior

Since my first mock draft came out in February, the Jaguars have franchise-tagged tackle Cam Robinson and signed guard Brandon Scherff in free agency, increasing the value of the O-line and shifting the optimal win-share selection to the best edge rusher available (Hutchinson). Last season, no team forced fewer turnovers than the Jags (nine). Hutchinson turned in three games this past season with at least three sacks, including the Ohio State game. Pairing him with Josh Allen could work wonders for the Jaguars’ defense.

2 Detroit Lions

Kyle Hamilton              Notre Dame · S · Junior

I had an edge rusher here (Hutchinson) in my last mock, so I realize it might seem odd that I now have Detroit taking a safety — a position often regarded as ranking outside of the top five in terms of priority (QB, pass rusher, LT, WR, CB). But my second-ranked pass rusher (Kayvon Thibodeaux) doesn’t offer the same win-share value for the Lions as Hamilton does in 2022. Hamilton’s versatility makes him the best selection for Detroit at No. 2 overall, as he has the potential to impact several phases of the game and areas of the field. My favorite Hamilton stat? Computer Vision shows he ranks in the 95th percentile in body control (eight-year sample) in plays that resulted in the following: interceptions, pass breakups, effective blitzing and shutting down outside pass catchers and slot pass catchers.

3  Houston Texans  

Evan Neal                       Alabama · OT · Junior

Lining up with Laremy Tunsil on the left and Neal on the right changes the tackle box for a team with a laundry list of needs. Neal is my model’s highest-rated tackle, especially on passing downs. The Texans are flush with draft capital after trading Deshaun Watson, so it’s not hard to imagine them moving all over the board.

4 New York Jets

Sauce Gardner                Cincinnati · CB · Junior

New mock, same pick. And yes, even with the secondary additions of corner D.J Reed and safety Jordan Whitehead in free agency.

5  New York Giants            

Ickey Ekwonu                  N.C. State · OT · Junior

Another duplicate pick here from Mock 1.0, especially with the Giants front office telling us they aren’t shopping Saquon Barkley. Ekwonu’s 18 big-time blocks in the run game, per Pro Football Focus, were seven more than the next-closest Power Five offensive lineman.

6 Carolina Panthers

Charles Cross                   Mississippi State · OT · Sophomore (RS)

The Mississippi State tackle allowed just 16 pressures on 719 pass-blocking snaps in 2021, per Pro Football Focus. Cross is a great fit for a Panthers O-line that just finished 31st on PFF’s year-end rankings.

7  New York Giants (from Chicago)

Kayvon Thibodeaux         Oregon · Edge · Junior

After posting just 34 sacks last season (tied for 22nd), the Giants could pounce on the high-upside pass rusher out of Oregon.

8    Atlanta Falcons            

Travon Walker               Georgia · DL · Junior

Walker is an interesting selection, considering the Falcons have a glaring need at wide receiver and could have their pick of the litter here. But snatching up Walker — while continuing to hit WR in free agency — adds more to the bottom line than the top receiver prospect would. My favorite Walker note comes from Computer Vision: In all alignments and situations he was used in last year at Georgia, his burst (first 3 yards traveled off the line) never eroded in speed. Walker blew up the NFL Scouting Combine, as well. And his upside is comparable to that of Thibodeaux, with a safer floor due in part to versatility.

9  Seattle Seahawks (from Denver)

Jermaine Johnson II           Florida State · Edge · Senior (RS)

Another edge rusher! Seattle’s roster has needs everywhere, but the Seahawks could definitely use an explosive edge rusher to pressure the talented quarterbacks in the NFC West.

10  New York Jets (from Seattle)

Garrett Wilson                   Ohio State · WR · Junior

What are the chances that it takes until pick No. 10 for a wide receiver to come off the board? According to my models, a very low 17.5 percent. Wilson remains my top-rated receiver in this draft. His ability to produce both outside and from the slot helps differentiate him from many other top pass catchers in this class.

11 Washington Commanders

Derek Stingley Jr.               LSU · CB · Junior

PFF charted Stingley’s LSU career completion percentage allowed at 41.1. That kind of sticky coverage would be a huge boon to a Commanders defense that just allowed a 100.8 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks in 2021. Pairing Stingley with Kendall Fuller, who was the bright spot of this secondary last season, creates the most value.

12  Minnesota Vikings

Trent McDuffie                 Washington · CB · Junior

I had Stingley here in Mock 1.0. With him off the board, the Vikings grab another CB. Stingley and McDuffie aren’t interchangeable — especially with their different body types/skill sets — but the discrepancy in win-share value between the two is very minimal.

13 Houston Texans (from Cleveland)

Drake London                  USC · WR · Junior

Sometimes, my own models surprise me — and that’s the case here. While the Texans have PLENTY of needs on both sides of the ball, I would’ve guessed the model would favor a defensive player here, with Houston addressing the offensive line at No. 3 overall. However, with the dwindling pool of free-agent WRs available, taking a big-bodied, contested-catch machine adds the most wins to this team in 2022.

14 Baltimore Ravens

George Karlaftis                  Purdue · Edge · Junior

At his pro day, Karlaftis told NFL Network’s Stacey Dales that his self comp is Khalil Mack. The Ravens would be ecstatic if he ended up being 75 percent of Mack. I am high on Karlaftis, primarily due to his power rush.

15  Philadelphia Eagles (from Miami)

Devonte Wyatt                   Georgia · DT · Senior

I know we talked a lot about his Georgia teammate, Jordan Davis, at the combine, but Wyatt is a darling of Computer Vision metrics, showing explosive traits in pads. While the Eagles did re-sign Fletcher Cox, it’s a one-year deal for a 30-something DT who has shown regression in recent seasons. Adding to this spot creates the most value should Philly not trade out of this pick or the next.

16  Philadelphia Eagles (from Indianapolis)

Treylon Burks               Arkansas · WR · Junior

The Eagles’ receiving corps benefits most from adding a consistent vertical threat. Watching all 11 of Burks’ receiving touchdowns last season — and using Computer Vision to characterize them — I saw his ability to dominate from the line of scrimmage quite clearly.

17 Los Angeles Chargers

Jordan Davis                    Georgia · DT · Senior

I love this pick for two reasons:

Davis’ raw talent offers so much immediate upside for the Bolts, especially when it comes to stopping the run.

Teaching is a huge key for incoming NFL players, and this is a situation where Brandon Staley could help craft a very, very special DT.

18 New Orleans Saints

Trevor Penning                Northern Iowa · OT · Senior (RS)

This past season, Penning posted the highest run-blocking grade ever charted by Pro Football Focus (going back to 2014 for college grading), though it should be noted that it primarily came against FCS competition. With Terron Armstead now a Dolphin, Penning would be a Day 1 starter for New Orleans, manning the blind side opposite special bookend Ryan Ramczyk.

19  Philadelphia Eagles

Devin Lloyd                       Utah · LB · Senior (RS)

Linebackers are some of the hardest players to forecast in terms of fit and win share, but Lloyd stands out from the pack, especially with his ability to blitz and cover. The Eagles could definitely win the NFC East, but upgrading the defense is a big key to making that happen.

20  Pittsburgh Steelers

Bernhard Raimann           Central Michigan · OT · Senior

Same pick as last time around in this slot. Especially with more certainty at the quarterback position, addressing the line is the biggest win-share mover for the Steelers.

21 New England Patriots

Nakobe Dean               Georgia · LB · Junior

If this happens, it’ll mark the second year in a row where the board falls the Patriots’ way in Round 1, allowing them to fill a glaring need without the need for even a small draft-day trade. With uncertainty about Dont’a Hightower’s return, my model has Dean sliding right into a crucial part of New England’s defense.

22  Green Bay Packers (from Las Vegas)

Chris Olave             Ohio State · WR · Senior

Anyone shocked seeing a receiver here? To me, Green Bay’s history of not drafting first-round wideouts is more of a fun note than a predictive one. Ultimately, it will likely be the Packers’ job to select whichever top wideout they like most, though they might have to move up the board to get him.

23    Arizona Cardinals

Jameson Williams      Alabama · WR · Junior

If Williams hadn’t torn his ACL in the national title game, he would have slightly edged out Garrett Wilson for top WR on my board. But he did, and although the ‘Bama product says he’s “ahead of schedule” in his rehab, it’s still an uncertainty. The Cardinals get DeAndre Hopkins back from injury, but Christian Kirk’s in Jacksonville and A.J. Green remains a free agent. Williams’ route running and speed forecast could nicely complement Hopkins and change the Cardinals’ pass-catching potential.

24  Dallas Cowboys

Tyler Linderbaum           Iowa · IOL · Junior (RS)

Pedigreed interior O-linemen — especially ones with projected profiles that suggest at least above-average (if not elite) production — pair well with what we have seen Kellen Moore call. Linderbaum becomes above-average or better in 30.4 percent of outcomes, per my models. Think of 25 percent as a very high number.

25   Buffalo Bills

Zion Johnson                  Boston College · IOL · Senior

I know the Bills are matching OG Ryan Bates’ offer sheet from the Bears, but the value of adding Johnson in the first — and then reinforcing other positions (like RB) later — creates the most wins. However, if any of the corners who are already gone in this exercise remain available on draft night, a switch makes sense.

26   Tennessee Titans

Jahan Dotson                Penn State · WR · Senior

The more the Titans convince opposing teams that they can pass the ball, the better for the offense as a whole. Dotson would help Tennessee do just that as a nice complement to A.J. Brown and Robert Woods.

27   Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Boye Mafe                         Minnesota · Edge · Senior (RS)

Computer Vision shows that Mafe’s burst (speed off the line of scrimmage) ranks in the top 20 of all edge rushers in the past eight draft classes.

28   Green Bay Packers

Tyler Smith                    Tulsa · OT · Sophomore (RS)

I was really hoping to get another wideout here, for fun. But nah. The Packers are likely to rely on runs from Aaron Jones/A.J. Dillon and shorter passes — at least for some time. Davante Adams is my top-rated WR in the league; losing him necessitates an adjustment period, even for the back-to-back MVP. Give Aaron Rodgers a rugged blocker to blow open running lanes and provide time in the pocket.

29  Kansas City Chiefs (from San Francisco thru Miami)

Dax Hill                     Michigan · S · Junior

Pass-stopping defensive pieces might matter most in this loaded AFC West. So, even though the Chiefs have already replaced Tyrann Mathieu with Justin Reid, both this pick and the very next one address the back end of Kansas City’s defense. Hill offers plenty of versatility, to boot.

30   Kansas City Chiefs

Kaiir Elam               Florida · CB · Junior

To be honest, the margin between Elam and Clemson corner Andrew Booth is razor thin. Though Booth did recently have core muscle surgery.

31  Cincinnati Bengals

Kenyon Green           Texas A&M · IOL · Junior

There are defensive areas on this roster that must be addressed, but rounding out a complete overhaul of the interior O-line (after adding Ted Karras and Alex Cappa in free agency) could be a huge boon to the Bengals, who will play a first-place schedule in 2022.

32  Detroit Lions (from LA Rams)

David Ojabo               Michigan · Edge · Sophomore (RS)

Ojabo slides in this mock due to the torn Achilles suffered at his pro day. Considering that I am selecting for wins in 2022, the fact that he’s still a first-rounder says a lot about how much my model believes in his raw ability, because it is uncertain how many games he will be able to play as a rookie.