O.J. Simpson, the football star and Hollywood actor acquitted of charges he killed his former wife and her friend in a trial that mesmerized the public and exposed divisions on race and policing in America, has died. He was 76.

The family announced on Simpson’s official X account that he died Wednesday of prostate cancer. He died in Las Vegas, officials there said Thursday.

Simpson earned fame, fortune and adulation through football and show business, but his legacy was forever changed by the June 1994 knife slayings of his ex-wife, Nicole Brown Simpson, and her friend Ronald Goldman in Los Angeles. He was later found liable for the deaths in a separate civil case, and then served nine years in prison on unrelated charges.

Goldman’s father, Fred, and his sister, Kim, released a statement acknowledging that “the hope for true accountability has ended.”

“The news of Ron’s killer passing away is a mixed bag of complicated emotions and reminds us that the journey through grief is not linear,” they wrote.

Live TV coverage of Simpson’s arrest after a famous slow-speed chase marked a stunning fall from grace.

He had seemed to transcend racial barriers as the star tailback for college football’s powerful University of Southern California Trojans in the late 1960s, as a rental-car ad pitchman rushing through airports in the late 1970s, and as the husband of a blond and blue-eyed high school homecoming queen in the 1980s.

“I’m not Black, I’m O.J.,” he liked to tell friends.

His trial captured America’s attention on live TV. The case sparked debates on race, gender, domestic abuse, celebrity justice and police misconduct.

Evidence found at the scene seemed overwhelmingly against Simpson. Blood drops, bloody footprints and a glove were there. Another glove, smeared with blood, was found at his home.

Simpson didn’t testify, but the prosecution asked him to try on the gloves in court. He struggled to squeeze them onto his hands and spoke his only three words of the trial: “They’re too small.”

His attorney Johnnie L. Cochran Jr. told the jurors, “If it doesn’t fit, you must acquit.”

The jury found him not guilty of murder in 1995, but a separate civil trial jury found him liable in 1997 for the deaths and ordered him to pay $33.5 million to relatives of Brown and Goldman.

A decade later, still shadowed by the California wrongful death judgment, Simpson led five men he barely knew into a confrontation with two sports memorabilia dealers in a cramped Las Vegas hotel room. Two men with Simpson had guns. A jury convicted Simpson of armed robbery and other felonies.

Imprisoned at 61, he served nine years in a remote Nevada lockup, including a stint as a gym janitor. He wasn’t contrite when he was released on parole in October 2017. The parole board heard him insist yet again that he was only trying to retrieve memorabilia and heirlooms stolen from him after his Los Angeles criminal trial.

“I’ve basically spent a conflict-free life, you know,” said Simpson, whose parole ended in late 2021.

Public fascination with Simpson never faded. Many debated whether he had been punished in Las Vegas for his acquittal in Los Angeles. In 2016, he was the subject of an FX miniseries and a five-part ESPN documentary.

“I don’t think most of America believes I did it,” Simpson told The New York Times in 1995, a week after a jury determined he did not kill Brown and Goldman. “I’ve gotten thousands of letters and telegrams from people supporting me.”

Twelve years later, following an outpouring of public outrage, Rupert Murdoch canceled a planned book by the News Corp.-owned HarperCollins in which Simpson offered his hypothetical account of the killings. It was to be titled “If I Did It.”

Goldman’s family, still doggedly pursuing the multimillion-dollar wrongful death judgment, won control of the manuscript. They retitled the book “If I Did It: Confessions of the Killer.”

“It’s all blood money, and unfortunately I had to join the jackals,” Simpson told The Associated Press at the time. He collected $880,000 in advance money for the book, paid through a third party.

“It helped me get out of debt and secure my homestead,” he said.

Less than two months after losing rights to the book, Simpson was arrested in Las Vegas.

Simpson played 11 NFL seasons, nine of them with the Buffalo Bills, where he became known as “The Juice” and ran behind an offensive line known as “The Electric Company.” He won four NFL rushing titles, rushed for 11,236 yards in his career, scored 76 touchdowns and played in five Pro Bowls. His best season was 1973, when he ran for 2,003 yards — the first running back to break the 2,000-yard rushing mark.

“I was part of the history of the game,” he said years later. “If I did nothing else in my life, I’d made my mark.”

Simpson’s football rise happened simultaneously with a television career. He signed a contract with ABC Sports the night he won the Heisman Trophy in 1968. That same year, he appeared on the NBC series “Dragnet” and “Ironside.” During his pro career, Simpson was a color commentator for a decade on ABC followed by a stint on NBC. In 1983, he joined ABC’s “Monday Night Football

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Mike Florio is aghast at how the Falcons tampered to get QB KIRK COUSINS to sign with them – and is demanding a solution before the draft:

The Falcons tampering with quarterback Kirk Cousins, as proven by the things Cousins said during his introductory press conference. The NFL is investigating. If the NFL is serious about getting to the truth, an investigation that makes the blatant tampering even more clear should not require many steps.

The question becomes whether and to what extent the Falcons will be punished. Some think the presence of Rich McKay on the Competition Committee will get the Falcons a pass. Obviously, that shouldn’t be the case. (However, they did get less of a punishment for pumping fake crowd noise into the Georgia Dome than the 49ers received for a simple accounting error.)

Given the manner in which the NFL handled last year’s tampering by the Cardinals with former Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon, it’s impossible to rule out an announcement that drops just before the first round of the draft.

The Falcons have the eighth pick in round one. The Vikings have the eleventh. What if the punishment is as simple as the Falcons and Vikings flip-flopping the two picks?

The NFL set the precedent last year, with the sudden and unexpected news of the Cardinals-Eagles settlement. It would make sense for it to happen again, between the Falcons and the Vikings.

And it would be a fair outcome, if (as Cousins admitted) he spoke with the team’s head athletic trainer the day before the team was allowed to speak to him, he possibly spoke with director of player personnel Ryan Pace before the team was allowed to speak to him, he participated in the recruitment of former Bears receiver Darnell Mooney during the negotiating window, and whatever else the NFL might have discovered by reviewing text messages and other evidence, including whether the team knew about the efforts of tight end Kyle Pitts to recruit Cousins — efforts Pitts tried to deny once they came to light.

The end result could, and perhaps should, be that the Vikings will have the eighth and 23rd picks. Which makes their potential effort to trade up into the top five a little easier. Or maybe they’ll just stay put at eight and wait for a quarterback they like to fall to them.

Regardless, because the NFL dropped that fairly important Cardinals-Eagles tampering nugget last year just as the draft began, it makes sense to watch for it again this year, especially since the Falcons did indeed tamper with Cousins.

CHICAGO

Jordan Reid of ESPN.com on what the rest of the draft might look like for Chicago after they pick QB CALEB WILLIAMS:

At No. 9 overall, do you expect Chicago to further support its rookie QB pick or address the defense?

The Bears’ personnel staff and coaches have been sectioned into “pods” to debate three positions the team could address at No. 9: wide receiver, offensive tackle and defensive end. The biggest need is finding a pass-rusher to start opposite Montez Sweat, and Chicago could have a bevy of options to choose from even if Atlanta selects a defensive end at No. 8. But if one of the draft’s top receivers, such as LSU’s Malik Nabers or Washington’s Rome Odunze, falls to No. 9, Chicago could nab him to further help its rookie QB. That would position the Bears to sign a veteran pass-rusher after the draft, which they did last year with Yannick Ngakoue. — Courtney Cronin

What we’re hearing about the Bears’ draft: All signs point to USC quarterback Caleb Williams being the No. 1 pick, but what happens after that for Chicago? The Bears have only three additional selections, meaning a move back could be in play at No. 9.

“I’d be shocked if they make that pick at nine,” an NFC area scout said. “[Bears GM Ryan] Poles loves to move around and build through the draft, and that roster still needs help in some spots.” Don’t be surprised if Chicago moves back, adds more draft capital and takes the best defensive end available wherever it lands. Laiatu Latu (UCLA) and Jared Verse (Florida State) are two options who would help off the edge in Chicago. — Reid

MINNESOTA

Kevin Seifert and Matt Miller of ESPN.com on the Vikings’ quest for a QB:

Two weeks out, give us a percentage chance the Vikings ultimately trade up from No. 11 for a quarterback.

Fifty percent. The Vikings’ preference is to trade up. But to use two words that general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and coach Kevin O’Connell have both repeated, Minnesota needs a “complicit” team to make that trade, and they’ll need the “flexibility” to pivot if none of their offers are accepted. There is a 100% chance the Vikings will draft a quarterback at some point in the draft, but the question is how highly regarded that player will be as a future pro. Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell know they can’t simply will a trade into existence. — Kevin Seifert

What we’re hearing about the Vikings’ draft: It’s no secret the Vikings need a quarterback and are expected to be aggressive in adding one at the draft, but the front office and O’Connell — a former quarterback himself — did not attend pro day workouts of the top quarterbacks. Instead, the Vikings are trying something different. “We want to see them work out in a more intimate setting,” is how a source with the team put it. “Get them a little uncomfortable running our workout vs. theirs.”

The Vikings have scheduled private workouts with five of the top six QBs (everyone except Caleb Williams) and will use those in-person, one-on-one evaluations with more weight than the traditional pro day circuit. This is the first time I can recall a team intentionally avoiding the pro day noise in lieu of in-person scouting, but I like it. — Miller

ATLANTA

The Falcons may be coalescing around the defensive line with pick number 8 of the first round.  Jordan Reid of ESPN.com:

What we’re hearing about the Falcons’ draft: Possible targets in Round 1 for the Falcons? “Anyone with a pulse that can rush the passer,” per an NFC executive. And Atlanta could have its pick of the defensive litter at No. 8. Dallas Turner (Alabama), Laiatu Latu (UCLA) and Jared Verse (Florida State) are all viewed as options. Any one of them would help a pass rush that was last in pass rush win rate last season at 30.9%. — Reid

NEW ORLEANS

The Saints have signed one of the great names in football. Josh Alper ofProFootballTalk.com:

The Saints doubled down on new acquisitions on Friday.

Shortly after announcing their agreement with quarterback Kellen Mond on the terms of a contract, the team announced that they have also struck a deal with wide receiver Equanimeous St. Brown. The terms of the agreement were not included in the announcement.

St. Brown was a 2018 sixth-round pick in Green Bay and he spent the last two seasons with the Bears. He caught 21 passes while playing 16 games in 2022, but was limited to five catches in seven games last season. For his career, St. Brown has 63 catches for 928 yards and two touchdowns.

Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Cedrick Wilson, A.T. Perry, and Stanley Morgan are the other wideouts on the roster in New Orleans.

TAMPA BAY

GM Jason Licht on the Buccaneers continued progress with signing their own. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk,com:

A report this week indicated that there is optimism about the state of contract talks between the Buccaneers and safety Antoine Winfield and Thursday brought confimation of that feeling from one of the key figures in those negotiations.

Buccaneers General Manager Jason Licht held a press conference that was mostly focused on draft matters, but he also fielded a question about where things stand with Winfield, who received a franchise tag, and left tackle Tristan Wirfs, who is heading into the final year of his rookie contract. Licht said things were positive on both fronts while noting that they’ve been able to re-sign several other players already this offseason.

“We’ve had really good discussions there,” Licht said, via a transcript from the team. “Once again, it’s like the same thing when we were at the combine talking about Baker [Mayfield] and Mike [Evans] and Lavonte [David]. We really want them here, we want them here long term, I think they want to be here long term. We’ve had a good track record with getting things done. I feel pretty good about things getting done.”

The Bucs have kept most of the band together after winning the NFC South last season and getting deals done with Winfield and Wirfs would set the stage for an extended run with the foundation of the roster that made that happen.

ARIZONA

Jordan Reid thinks the Cardinals have the draft capital and inclination to move up from #27 with their second first round pick:

What we’re hearing about the Cardinals’ draft: General manager Monti Ossenfort is known for wheeling and dealing during the draft, and since the Cardinals are tied for the most picks this year (11), I’d expect more of the same. It shouldn’t come as a surprise if Arizona gets aggressive and attempts to move up from No. 27 for a cornerback on Day 1. Murphy-Bunting is more of a CB2. There’s a glaring need for a high-upside CB1, and Nate Wiggins (Clemson) and Kool-Aid McKinstry (Alabama) could be Day 1 options for a roster still in the talent collection portion of its rebuild. — Reid

KANSAS CITY

WR RASHEE RICE surrenders to authorities in Texas as Mike Florio contemplates the appropriate punishment from the NFL.

Chiefs receiver Rashee Rice, who faces eight felony charges in the aftermath of a street race that sparked a six-car accident, has surrendered to authorities in Dallas.

Via WFAA, he has been booked and released on $40,000 bond.

Rice has not yet been charged with leaving the scene of an accident involving injuries. That could still happen, resulting in more felony charges.

Neither the Chiefs nor the NFL have taken action against Rice. As explained on Thursday’s PFT Live, perhaps one or both should.

The facts are clear. The cars — both of which were registered to Rice — were racing. They endangered the lives of others.

SMU has already suspended Theodore Knox, the driver of the car. The NFL and the Chiefs look bad, frankly, in comparison.

Why not suspend Rice indefinitely pending resolution of the charges? Whether he’s on paid leave or unpaid leave, it’s a serious situation that compels the league to send a message to other players who might be tempted to get behind the wheel of a car and do things that create risk of serious injury both for himself and for others.

MIAMI

He is a Raider now and DT CHRISTIAN WILKINS could say whatever he truly wants to about QB TUA TAGOVAILOA.  And what he says is nothing but positive.  Nick Shook at NFL.com:

Christian Wilkins is wearing different colors now, but that doesn’t preclude him from showering praise on a former prominent teammate.

If anyone got a good view of Tua Tagovailoa’s maturation as an NFL quarterback, it was Wilkins, who joined Miami one year before Tagovailoa arrived. As the two blossomed in Miami — with Wilkins improving enough to earn a four-year, $110 million deal with the Raiders in March — the defensive tackle was there for every step of Tagovailoa’s path from potential first-round bust to quarterback of the NFL’s most explosive offense.

Though he’s in a new city, Wilkins is proud of Tagovailoa’s growth. And he’ll gladly defend Tagovailoa against any critic.

“I really had a front-row seat to Tua and his growth and his development as a player, and just as a teammate, a leader, all that,” Wilkins said during an appearance on Arik Armstead’s “Third and Long” podcast. “It’s been cool to watch. I feel like, in a way, we kinda had similar stories.”

Wilkins arrived in Miami as a decorated star at Clemson, where he won two national titles with the Tigers and attracted nearly as much attention for his celebratory dance moves as he did his impact on the field. He didn’t make the same impact in Miami until his final three seasons, in which he ramped up his sack totals to 4.5, 3.5 and 9.0 while accruing 252 tackles from 2021-2023.

That performance was enough to convince the Raiders they needed to pay to bring him to Las Vegas. Tagovailoa, meanwhile, finally shook off the injury-prone label in 2023 to throw for a career-high 4,624 yards, 29 touchdowns and a 101.1 passer rating, earning his first Pro Bowl nod and leading the Dolphins to a second straight playoff appearance.

Some may see Tagovailoa as little more than a product of Mike McDaniel’s innovative offense. But the numbers speak for themselves, according to Wilkins.

“He went through his stuff, had his struggles early,” Wilkins said. “But now, you know, Pro Bowl, MVP finalist and all that … I don’t care what system, what scheme, or anything like that, you’re still playing.”

Football isn’t as simple as rolling a ball out and telling robots to execute the plays as designed. Tagovailoa spent an entire offseason learning how to land in a safer fashion to avoid injury, then went out and put up a league-high total in passing yards, powering a Miami offense that most everyone feared throughout the majority of the 2023 season.

That doesn’t happen by chance. And after watching his teammate’s ascension, Wilkins isn’t interested in giving Tagovailoa’s detractors time to bring him down.

“So, definitely shout out to him, just the things he’s been able to do and accomplish,” Wilkins said. “It was just cool to have a front-row seat to watching his development as a player.”

THIS AND THAT

BRADY THE TEASE

Tom Brady just can’t bring himself to say he’s retired.  Mike Reiss of ESPN.com:

Tom Brady said he was retiring from football “for good” on Feb. 1, 2023, but he might be having second thoughts.

In an appearance on the “Deep Cut” podcast, released Thursday, Brady was asked by host Vic Blends whether he would pick up the phone if a team called him in the event of an injury.

“I’m not opposed to it,” Brady said. “I don’t know if they are going to let me if I become an owner of an NFL team. I’m always going to be in good shape. I’ll always be able to throw the ball. So, to come in for a little bit, like MJ [Michael Jordan] coming back, I don’t know if they would let me. But I wouldn’t be opposed to it.”

Blends proposed a scenario where the San Francisco 49ers might need a quarterback headed into the playoffs, and then Brady also mentioned the New England Patriots and Las Vegas Raiders before giving his answer.

In May 2023, Brady reached an agreement with Raiders owner Mark Davis to join the organization’s ownership group, pending NFL approval.

That approval has yet to come, with commissioner Roger Goodell saying at March’s annual meeting that the league goes “through a very thorough process” and he believed “it’s been making progress.”

Brady, 46, also has plans to begin work as a sports broadcaster at Fox Sports this summer.

Brady referenced his upcoming work with Fox Sports on the podcast, saying: “I love having this challenge to try something different in my life. It’s going to challenge me in a lot of different ways.”

At one point in the podcast, Brady said: “My career and all that, that’s a thing of the past in my mind. I was a gladiator out there, and now my time has moved on. Now it’s, ‘OK, how can I deliver for my next group of teammates?'”

Brady’s remarks on the podcast, which came while he was in a barber’s chair, generated social media buzz and especially resonated in New England, where the Patriots are planning a full-stadium ceremony to honor Brady on June 12.

PROJECTING THE QUARTERBACKS

Aaron Schaatz’s analytics tell us which of the QBs in the draft will thrive in the NFL:

For the first time since Trevor Lawrence in 2021, there is a consensus No. 1 quarterback prospect in the 2024 NFL draft: USC standout and 2022 Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams. Given how correlated quarterback performance is with team wins, the team with the first pick often needs a quarterback. The Chicago Bears have that pick via the Carolina Panthers, but they also had a quarterback (Justin Fields) who finished 23rd out of 30 quarterbacks in Total QBR in 2023. Fields is now in Pittsburgh, and Chicago will more than likely select Williams.

That means the quarterback-needy Washington Commanders and New England Patriots, who are picking second and third overall, are in a position to draft North Carolina’s Drake Maye and LSU’s Jayden Daniels. There is also a potentially generational wide receiver prospect available in Marvin Harrison Jr., but because of the outsized impact a quarterback has on team success (see Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs trading now-eight-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins, then winning back-to-back Super Bowls), it is likely that the Commanders and Patriots will both select quarterbacks.

In doing so, they will hope they land this year’s C.J. Stroud. ESPN Radio’s “Unsportsmanlike” host Evan Cohen posted on X that ideally, you should “draft a QB when you want one, so you never need one.” The Chiefs with Mahomes and the Green Bay Packers with Jordan Love provide a strong case for Cohen’s point. But Stroud won Offensive Rookie of the Year and led the Houston Texans to the AFC South title, so if the quarterback pick is right, it can work out even if it is made out of necessity.

Then there are Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, Oregon’s Bo Nix and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr., who could go in the first round to any of the teams after the third pick that might be looking for a change at quarterback, such as the New York Giants (No. 6), Minnesota Vikings (No. 11) and Denver Broncos (No. 12). McCarthy has been mocked as high as No. 4 overall. Finally, Oklahoma’s Spencer Rattler is a potential Day 2 pick who could end up on a team looking to upgrade its backup quarterback.

With the above background, we present this year’s QBASE 2.0 projections for the 2024 quarterback class. QBASE 2.0 is a combination of Andrew Healy’s (2015) original QBASE model and Olbrecht and Rosen’s (2018) functional mobility model. It factors in a quarterback’s college passing statistics adjusted for the quality of his teammates and opponents, as well as the number of years he started in college. It also incorporates his rushing ability (see Daniels), and while it rewards improvements over time (Daniels again), it penalizes one-year wonders (once again, Daniels).

The quarterbacks below are listed in order of ranking on a consensus big board, and interpreting each quarterback’s projection is straightforward. A value of 0 Total defense-adjusted yards above replacement per attempt (TDYAR/A) is replacement-level, whereas any value over 1.5 is indicative of a Hall of Fame career. We run 50,000 simulations to provide a distribution of the number of times that each quarterback falls within a particular range. Here are our 2024 projections.

Projections for the 2024 class

Caleb Williams, USC

Consensus Big Board: 1

MEAN PROJECTION    0.61 TDYAR/A

Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)      28.9%

Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)     25.8%

Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A) 24.1%

Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)   21.2%

Williams is the consensus top quarterback in this draft for good reason. He won the Heisman Trophy in 2022 and followed it up with a very strong 2023. He threw for more yards per attempt (9.36) and had a higher completion rate (68.6%) than he did in 2022, despite USC’s overall struggles. He has an elite arm and exceptional playmaking ability, which is reflected in both his passing and his rushing numbers. In addition, he has a consistent track of success, excelling ever since he took Spencer Rattler’s starting job at Oklahoma in 2021. If the Chicago Bears decide to draft him first overall, QBASE raises no objection.

Drake Maye, North Carolina

Consensus Big Board: 2

MEAN PROJECTION    0.03 TDYAR/A

Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)      49.2%

Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)     25.6%

Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A) 16.3%

Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)   8.9%

Maye is viewed by many as the second-best quarterback prospect in this draft. However, QBASE is more skeptical, because relative to the other prospects, his college statistics were not that impressive (for instance, his 63.3 completion percentage in 2023). In addition, Maye was only a two-year starter, and his 2023 performance regressed relative to 2022.

Yes, there were circumstances at the North Carolina program that may be responsible for that decline, such as the departure of Maye’s top two receivers for the NFL (Josh Downs and Antoine Green). And there are quarterbacks with relatively lackluster college statistics who have excelled in the pros, such as Josh Allen. Maye’s great arm talent and skill make him a strong candidate to do so. But college statistics are correlated with NFL success here, so Maye’s projection is lower than it would be otherwise.

Jayden Daniels, LSU

Consensus Big Board: 4

MEAN PROJECTION    0.34 TDYAR/A

Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)      37.7%

Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)     27.2%

Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A) 20.7%

Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)   14.4%

Daniels put up video game numbers in 2023, claiming the Heisman Trophy in the process. His passer rating of 208.0 was an FBS record, and he completed 72.2% of his passes for 11.7 yards per attempt. Not only that, but his 8.4 rushing yards per attempt exceeded every one of Lamar Jackson’s seasons at Louisville.

However, there are still concerns. He is a one-year wonder who took too many sacks, he got to throw to a projected top-10 pick in Malik Nabers, and teams will worry about his ability to stay healthy because he runs so much at a slender 6-foot-4, 210 pounds. Then again, the last time a Heisman-winning one-year wonder with an elite receiver came out of LSU (Joe Burrow), it worked out well for the team that drafted him. Ultimately, QBASE favors Daniels over Maye as QB2 in this class.

J.J. McCarthy, Michigan

Consensus Big Board: 6

MEAN PROJECTION    0.20 TDYAR/A

Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)      45.9%

Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)     26.3%

Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A) 17.7%

Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)   10.1%

McCarthy’s 2023 numbers were not as exceptional as Daniels’, but in leading Michigan to victory in the College Football Playoff, he did everything the Wolverines asked. He was efficient (72.3% completion percentage), he protected the football (just four interceptions all season) and he picked up yards on the ground when necessary (202 rushing yards and 3.2 per attempt). He was only a two-year starter, and like Daniels, he has shot up draft boards late, both of which hurt his projection. But coach Jim Harbaugh really likes him, calling him the best quarterback in Michigan history (even though Tom Brady went there).

Bo Nix, Oregon

Consensus Big Board: 31

MEAN PROJECTION    -0.08 TDYAR/A

Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)      54.1%

Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)     24.4%

Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A) 14.7%

Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)   6.9%

QBASE has a somewhat positive projection for Nix compared to his expected draft position. Due to the extra year of eligibility the COVID-19 pandemic granted him, he was a five-year starter (though QBASE only gives him credit for the usual maximum of four years), and he improved every year he played. His 77.4% completion percentage in 2023 is one of the highest in our entire data set, and his passer rating and rushing yards per attempt came in second this year, behind Daniels.

On the downside, his 6.3 air yards per attempt in 2023 was the worst of this year’s prospects, and this year’s QBASE adds a penalty to account for that. And at 24 years old come Sept. 1 (which is the cutoff date we use for a prospect’s age), he is the oldest of this year’s prospects, though his age penalty is still much smaller than Hendon Hooker’s was last year. Nix is not Justin Herbert — he did not have the four years of success Herbert had in Oregon, nor does he have Herbert’s elite arm strength — but QBASE still views him as a first-round pick.

Michael Penix Jr., Washington

Consensus Big Board: 32

MEAN PROJECTION    -0.43 TDYAR/A

Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)      68.2%

Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)     19.4%

Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A) 9%

Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)   3.5%

Also 24 years old on Sept. 1 (though slightly younger than Nix), Penix played six years of college football. Like Daniels and Nix, he received an extra year of eligibility because of COVID-19. Unlike them, his 2022 performance was comparable to his 2023 showing — which is good, since he is not a one-year wonder. But he has additional concerns the others do not have.

First, he tore his right ACL twice and seriously injured both shoulders at Indiana, where he played before transferring to Washington in 2022. Also, his rushing yards per attempt took a big step back in 2023 at just 0.2, and he struggled when being pressured out of the pocket, both of which hurt his projection. He has the pocket passing and sack avoidance skills to succeed in the NFL, but drafting him early means assuming a high bust risk.

Spencer Rattler, South Carolina

Consensus Big Board: 87

MEAN PROJECTION    -1.43 TDYAR/A

Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)      90.5%

Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)     7.1%

Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A) 1.9%

Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)   0.5%

A breakout 2020 season at Oklahoma made Rattler an early Heisman favorite in 2021, but his college career faced a major setback when he lost his starting job to Caleb Williams. However, after transferring to South Carolina in 2022, Rattler bounced back enough to put himself in consideration for a Day 2 pick in this year’s draft.

While he did not impress with his legs at South Carolina (1.1 rushing yards per attempt in 2023), he completed more than 65% of his passes in both seasons there, throwing for a career-high 3,186 yards in 2023. Overall, QBASE agrees with most scouts that he is unlikely to make it as an NFL starter, but he can be a workable backup.

We wonder what this projection, based on college stats, would have said about QB BROCK PURDY after his days at Iowa State?

2024 DRAFT

Eight experts at NFL.com offer their most underrated player in the upcoming draft:

Who is the most underrated player in this year’s draft?

Jeffri Chadiha

PICK: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU

More people would be talking about Thomas if this draft wasn’t loaded with wide receivers. It’s true that he’s not on the same level as Marvin Harrison, Rome Odunze or Malik Nabers, his teammate at LSU. That doesn’t mean he doesn’t have star potential. Thomas has size (6-foot-3, 209 pounds), speed (he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.33 seconds at the NFL Scouting Combine) and production (he led college football with 17 touchdown receptions last year). He might last until the second half of the first round, but somebody will be thrilled to grab him.

Eric Edholm

PICK: Marshawn Kneeland, Edge, Western Michigan

There’s some debate over just how athletic he is relative to his testing numbers, but Kneeland impressed me with his movement skills in space along with his momentum-stopping hitting ability. He’ll whiff on a few plays and might be overwhelmed by elite power blockers, but Kneeland has a hot motor, big production and a nose for the ball. I think top 50 isn’t out of the question.

Chad Reuter

PICK: Jermaine Burton, WR, Alabama

Burton went a bit under the radar despite leading Alabama in receiving yards (898) and touchdowns (eight) because the Crimson Tide ranked just 68th in the FBS in passing offense. He was not credited with a drop, per PFF, maturing as a reliable short and intermediate route-runner to complement the speed he’s shown since his days at Georgia. Burton will be an Amon-Ra St. Brown-type bargain if available in the third or fourth round.

Maurice Jones-Drew

PICK: Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa

DeJean sustained a season-ending fibula injury in November, forcing him to miss the Senior Bowl and NFL Scouting Combine, but he tested well at his private pro day on Monday. While he’s still a likely first-round pick, if not for the injury, I believe the Iowa cornerback would be a sure-fire top-15 selection. He excels in man and zone coverage and has great ball skills with the ability to take it the distance — thanks to his return ability. He’s a unicorn who will positively influence both the defense and special teams.

Scott Pioli

PICK: Jonah Elliss, Edge, Utah

There are a lot of players who fall under this category, but Elliss is the player I’m focusing on. Measuring 6-foot-2, 248 pounds, he is an undersized edge rusher who surprised a lot of people by entering the draft this year. Although he is a good, young player with major upside, he still has to develop to become a finish product. The son of two-time NFL Pro Bowler Luther Elliss, Jonah possesses good initial get-off, strong pass rush instincts and disruptive ability with a nonstop motor.

Lance Zierlein

PICK: Renardo Green, CB, Florida State

Green did an incredible job of shadowing LSU’s Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., and yet, he still flies under the radar somewhat. He has slightly below average size (6-foot, 186 pounds) to play outside, but he can really blanket targets over the first two levels in man coverage. I see him as a possible nickel cornerback and a future starter who should be in consideration in the second round, but will probably go a round or two later.

Marc Ross

PICK: Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina

Legette was a late bloomer for South Carolina but is a legit playmaker. The 6-foot-1, 221-pound wideout plays physical and fast (4.39-second 40-yard dash) with outstanding ball skills, and his kick return ability adds more value to his stock with the league’s new rules. To me, his talent is comparable with the better-known receivers who’ll get picked early in Round 1.

David Carr

PICK: Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington

I get that some teams might be concerned with Penix’s injury history, but I still believe Penix’s name should be among the elite in this year’s quarterback class. Instead, he’ll likely be the fifth — maybe sixth – passer off the board at the end of this month. Penix has proven to be one of the best downfield passers in this class. He’s a natural thrower with great vision and processing skills, and he showed last season he can elevate an offense around him. Penix can do the same at the next level.

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Rhett Lewis off NFL.com offers this Mock Draft:

On the cusp of a potentially historic NFL draft, one that could feature quarterbacks being selected with the first four overall picks and a record number of offensive tackles going within the first 32, I’d like to offer some food for thought: What if the Vikings didn’t acquire the 23rd overall pick with the plan to package it with No. 11 for a bid at breaking into the top five for a QB? Many of us assume that was the case, but what if the asking price to make a play for Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels is simply too high? What if Minnesota isn’t enamored enough with J.J. McCarthy to surrender a trove of assets to move up the board for him? But what if the Vikings are intrigued by one of the other passers in this class, say a guy like Michael Penix Jr. or Bo Nix, who could still be available later in Round 1? Just a handful of the questions I attempt to unpack below as we prepare for what should be a dramatic, QB-driven 2024 NFL Draft.

1 – Chicago Bears (via CAR)

Caleb Williams                         USC · QB · Junior

We’ve been talking about Williams as the presumptive No. 1 overall pick for some time now, and his talent level is worthy of that distinction. Chicago has already made plenty of moves to put Caleb in a position to succeed — trading Justin Fields, finding a new play-caller in Shane Waldron, adding playmakers like Keenan Allen and D’Andre Swift — and will have yet another opportunity to do so when it’s back on the clock at No. 9.

2 – Washington Commanders

Drake Maye                                 North Carolina · QB · Sophomore (RS)

The Commanders have been associated or connected to almost every QB worthy of consideration with this pick since the start of the draft process, but I keep coming back to Maye. If you look past the production drop-off in 2023, a year in which you could still see the elite traits, Drake has all the makings of a culture-changing franchise QB.

3 – New England Patriots

Jayden Daniels                               LSU · QB · Senior

One of the most anemic offenses in football the last two years gets an immediate adrenaline injection with the multi-talented Daniels. The 2023 Heisman Trophy winner was an excellent distributor to his high-level Tiger targets and has the elite athleticism to fill a playmaking void if his initial surrounding cast in New England remains a work in progress.

4 – Arizona Cardinals

Marvin Harrison Jr.                        Ohio State · WR · Junior

The Cardinals moved up and down the draft board last year with tact and vision for the future. This year, it’s about the player, not the picks. Harrison Jr. is a player worth staying put for — even in the face of potential trade offers. The former Buckeye offers a similar franchise impact as another receiver Arizona once drafted in the top five: Larry Fitzgerald.

5 – Los Angeles Chargers

Joe Alt                                              Notre Dame · OT · Junior

Going with anything other than Alt with this choice would feel like we’re overthinking Jim Harbaugh’s formula for success: build a formidable front, commit to running the football and allow the franchise QB to use his elite skill set from an upright position, as opposed to on his back.

6 – New York Giants

Malik Nabers                                       LSU · WR · Junior

Need plus best player available aligns here in a way that’s perfect for the Giants. New York has been searching for a No. 1 receiver since sending Odell Beckham Jr. to Cleveland during the 2019 offseason. It just so happens that they finally find another explosive Tiger talent to fill the role.

7 – Tennessee Titans

Olumuyiwa Fashanu                             Penn State · OT · Junior (RS)

I thought Fashanu could’ve been a top-10 pick last year, but he chose to return to Penn State. And while his tape this season didn’t match the perceived talent, he has huge upside and would still be an instant upgrade for Tennessee’s O-line.

8 – Atlanta Falcons

Dallas Turner                                      Alabama · Edge · Junior

The Falcons have spent the last three years upgrading their offensive skill positions and now have the QB in Kirk Cousins to bring it all together. So, in Raheem Morris’ first draft as Atlanta’s head coach, he lands the best edge rusher in the draft.

9 – Chicago Bears

Rome Odunze                                    Washington · WR · Senior

Support your young franchise QB! Just look at what the Texans have done for C.J. Stroud. Chicago follows a similar strategy, bringing in a third high-level WR to assist Caleb Williams. Odunze is on the same tier as Harrison and Nabers. The Bears might just “win” the draft with this tandem of top-10 picks.

10 – Denver Broncos   PROJECTED TRADE WITH NEW YORK JETS

J.J. McCarthy                                           Michigan · QB · Junior

This trade presents a more palatable scenario for the Broncos since they don’t have a ton of draft resources to throw at their QB problem. The move up two spots doesn’t cost them any future first-round picks and nets Sean Payton a QB who is a proven winner with a savvy football IQ. The assets that would’ve otherwise been dealt in a move higher up the board can now be invested in building around McCarthy for the future.

11-  Minnesota Vikings

Terrion Arnold                                           Alabama · CB

If you read the intro to this mock, then you understand the rationale here for Minnesota. I tend to side with Daniel Jeremiah’s assessment of J.J. McCarthy — that the former Wolverine has a grade closer to Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. than to the top three QBs. If the Vikings have a similar evaluation of the position group, perhaps they choose not to make a splash move into the top five, but rather let the draft come to them and take and the best corner in this year’s class. Arnold is ready to handle the pressure of playing in Brian Flores’ aggressive scheme.

12 – New York Jets              PROJECTED TRADE WITH DENVER BRONCOS

Taliese Fuaga                                            Oregon State · OT · Senior

The Jets get the best of both worlds in this deal: some extra draft capital and a top-tier OT to support the aging tackles they signed in free agency. They will find a way to get Fuaga on the field.

13 – Las Vegas Raiders

Michael Penix Jr.                                       Washington · QB · Senior

I love this fit. If not for the injuries, I believe we’d be talking about Penix in the same breath as the top three QBs. I think his pure arm talent is second to none in this class, and he has more athleticism than people give him credit for. He immediately becomes the best passer on the roster.

14 – New Orleans Saints

JC Latham                                                Alabama · OT · Junior

Ryan Ramczyk’s knee injury brings the offensive line issues into sharper focus this offseason. Latham is an experienced and talented tackle with the ability to maul in the run game while providing a steady hand in pass protection. He starts on Day 1.

15 – Indianapolis Colts

Brock Bowers                                            Georgia · TE · Junior

Please refer back to Pick No. 9, Sentence 1. Anthony Richardson has just four starts under his belt, and the Colts must remain committed to surrounding him with high-end talent. Re-signing Michael Pittman was Step 1. Continuing to develop Josh Downs is Step 2. Drafting the best TE in this year’s class, who boasts incredible run-after-the-catch skills, is a monster Step 3.

16 – Seattle Seahawks (via CLE through HOU)

Troy Fautanu                                               Washington · OT · Senior

Staying in Seattle, the former Washington Husky upgrades the athleticism along the Seahawks’ offensive line while also providing the versatility to step in at guard right away. 

17 – Jacksonville Jaguars

Quinyon Mitchell                                          Toledo · CB · Senior

Like the Giants at Pick No. 6, I think the Jags’ selection of Mitchell, who has been one of the biggest winners of the pre-draft process, merges need with value.

18 – Minnesota Vikings      PROJECTED TRADE WITH CINCINNATI BENGALS

Bo Nix                                                          Oregon · QB · Senior

Concerned that the Rams might have an eye toward the future beyond Matthew Stafford, Minnesota jumps five spots to snag Nix, whose accuracy and operation within Oregon’s offense was impeccable over the last two seasons. He’s the consummate competitor with the added appeal of immense collegiate experience (NCAA record 61 starts).

19 – Los Angeles Rams

Jared Verse                                                Florida State · Edge · Senior

Admittedly, this feels late for a player like Verse at a premier position, but the run on QBs and OTs could easily push talented defenders like Verse down. The Rams are more than happy to pair a fierce edge presence with burgeoning talent Kobie Turner on the inside.

20 – Pittsburgh Steelers

Graham Barton                                            Duke · IOL · Senior

I considered an interior defensive lineman like Byron Murphy II here, but given the Steelers’ QB situation (both Russell Wilson and Justin Fields would greatly benefit from a strong running game), continuing to build the offensive line seemed like the more prudent decision. Barton gives Pittsburgh five-position flexibility, as a guy who played left tackle at Duke but is also arguably the top center candidate in this draft.

21 – Miami Dolphins

Laiatu Latu                                                 UCLA · Edge · Senior

If the medicals check out, this seems like a no-brainer. Latu is a straight-up technician off the edge. And with the uncertainty around when Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips will be fully healthy following their season-ending injuries, the former Bruin fills a need, as well.

22 – Philadelphia Eagles

Nate Wiggins                                               Clemson · CB · Junior

Philly has to improve its pass defense, and Wiggins has the speed and tools to provide an instant upgrade on the perimeter.

23 – Cincinnati Bengals                           PROJECTED TRADE WITH MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Tyler Guyton                                               Oklahoma · OT · Junior (RS)

Cincinnati accumulates even more picks after allowing the Vikings to move up and still lands one of the best offensive linemen in this class. Guyton has the raw tools to be a Pro Bowl player, and the current veteran presence at the Bengals’ tackle spots could give the rookie the time to refine those skills.

24 – Dallas Cowboys

Jackson Powers-Johnson                             Oregon · C

Powers-Johnson is one of the best centers and overall offensive linemen in this class. Tyler Biadasz’s departure to D.C. amplifies the Cowboys’ urgency to fortify the front five.

25 – Green Bay Packers

Amarius Mims                                                  Georgia · OT · Junior

The Packers have a compelling collection of young skill-position talent surrounding QB Jordan Love, so this year, they opt to find a long-term replacement for David Bakhtiari at LT.

26 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Brian Thomas Jr.                                               LSU · WR · Junior

Even with Chris Godwin entering a contract year, Mike Evans’ re-signing makes WR more of a luxury than a pressing need. Still, Thomas’ talent might be too much for Tampa to pass up. What a weapon he would be in a Bucs offense that looks to build off Baker Mayfield’s career campaign.

27 Arizona Cardinals (via HOU)

Byron Murphy II                                                    Texas · DT · Junior

A major interior disruptor, Murphy could be the kind of impact player up front the likes of which the Cardinals haven’t seen since Calais Campbell left years ago — albeit in a much smaller package.

28 – Buffalo Bills

Cooper DeJean                                                   Iowa · CB · Junior

Could the Bills try and trade up to secure Brian Thomas Jr.? Sure, but there will be plenty of WR talent available in the second round. Here, at No. 28, Buffalo fills another huge need by selecting DeJean, the best corner the Big Ten had to offer this season. He also possesses top-end return ability.

29 – Detroit Lions

Kool-Aid McKinstry                                              Alabama · CB · Junior

This feels like such a franchise fit. There’s a toughness the Lions have embraced under head coach Dan Campbell that wouldn’t be a problem for McKinstry, who enters the league with a highly respected résumé, having started 33 games for Nick Saban at Alabama.

30 – Baltimore Ravens

Jer’Zhan Newton                                                   Illinois · DT · Senior

A foot injury has sidelined Newton during this path to the draft, but make no mistake, his game-wrecking ability was present and accounted for on tape. He provides Baltimore’s formidable front with another rotational piece.

31 – San Francisco 49ers

Chop Robinson                                                      Penn State · Edge · Junior

Robinson is another athletic freak of a pass rusher out of Penn State. He had limited production in his two seasons for the Nittany Lions, but the Niners have one of the best D-line coaches in the league in Kris Kocurek, who can help pull the production out of Chop’s potential.

32 – Kansas City Chiefs

Ennis Rakestraw Jr.                                                Missouri · CB · Junior (RS)

Wide receiver is a popular pick for the Chiefs in Round 1, but didn’t their Super Bowl run teach us anything about Patrick Mahomes’ ability to thrive despite a lack of top-tier talent on the outside? The trade of L’Jarius Sneed opens up a hole at one of the corner spots, where Rakestraw, who’s smooth in the pass game and physical against the run, would slot in well.