The Daily Briefing Friday, April 14, 2023

DETROIT

Earlier this week the Lions quietly shipped CB JEFF OKUDAH, once the 3^rd overall pick in the draft, to the Falcons.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Lions traded cornerback Jeff Okudah to the Falcons for a fifth-round pick this week and head coach Dan Campbell pointed to the rest of the team’s offseason moves as a big reason why they moved the third overall pick of the 2020 draft.

During an appearance on The Rich Eisen Show, Campbell said that the team is “pleased with the upgrades that we’ve made” in the secondary over the last month. They signed cornerbacks Cam Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley in addition to adding safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson to round out a set of moves that pushed Okudah down the depth chart in Detroit.

“We really felt like, at this time, this is probably the best thing for us and for Jeff,” Okudah said. “A new change of scenery and give him a fresh start. We felt really good about our guys. And, look, man, I appreciate Jeff. He was a pro, he came to work, he busted his ass. He worked at it. He was coming off an injury last year and we just felt like, ‘You know what, this is the right thing to do right now.’”

Neither Campbell nor General Manager Brad Holmes were in Detroit when Okudah was drafted and his departure is the latest move that the team has made to turn the page from the past to what they hope will be a much brighter future.

MINNESOTA

Are the Vikings looking to move on from QB KIRK COUSINS in the near future?  This from ProFootballTalk.com:

At Thursday’s pre-draft press conference, Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell and General Manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah discussed the future of the quarterback position and how it would be ideal to have the team’s next quarterback on hand for a year before they took over the offense.

It’s unclear if the Vikings will have a developmental quarterback at this point, but they do know that they will have Kirk Cousins as their starter for at least one more season and his prospects for 2023 were also a topic of conversation. For the first time since joining the Vikings in 2018, Cousins will have the same offensive voices in his ear for two straight seasons and that prospect has O’Connell excited to see the impact that continuity has on the quarterback.

“I’m very excited about Kirk in Year Two in this system,” O’Connell said, via the team’s website. “It’s been a while since Kirk’s been able to say that he gets to come back in the same system he ran previously with the same play-caller. I’ve had a lot of great dialogue with him in ways we’re going to look to fine-tune what we did and grow and improve. That will be a big part of 2023 for me, not only as the head coach but as play-caller in our offensive staff.”

Plenty of people will be thinking about succession plans if the Vikings do draft a quarterback this month, but plans for the future could change if familiarity winds up paying off on the offensive side of the ball.

WASHINGTON

Is Josh Harris the new owner of the Commanders?  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

Given that the reporting regarding the Commanders sale has been all over the place generally, it’s fitting that ESPN.com is now disputing the reporting that owner Daniel Snyder has agreed to sell the team to Josh Harris.

According to ESPN.com, Canadian billionaire Steve Apostolopoulos remains in the mix for the team.

As an unnamed source told ESPN.com, it’s “a head-to-head race. . . . It’s anyone’s game.”

Is it though? Is Steve Apostolopoulos really in it? Or is something else going on, such as perhaps Snyder trying to use the uncertainty to shake one more concession from Harris?

As noted when ESPN reported on the same day that Harris and then that Apostolopoulos had made a $6 billion bid for the team, there has to be a way to break the tie. Even if it means a full-blown auction, with “I have 6; do I hear 6.1?” and so on, until one bidder remains.

It makes sense, given the full bulk of the reporting on this situation, to be skeptical generally. It’s hard to know the specific reports about which to be skeptical. But the unnamed source persuaded someone at ESPN.com to green light a report that Apostolopoulos is still in play, which presumably is no small feat.

Maybe the deal isn’t done. Maybe it is. The uncertainty underscores the fact that this one won’t be done until it’s officially and finally and completely done.

INDIANAPOLIS

The Colts may have Kentucky QB WILL LEVIS ranked ahead of Florida’s ANTHONY RICHARDSON.  Kevin Hickey of USA TODAY:

With the 2023 NFL draft officially two weeks away, there will be plenty of news and reports to sift through, especially when it comes to the Indianapolis Colts and their plans for the quarterback position.

The team has kept everything extremely tight-lipped throughout the offseason so it’s best to take every report we see with a grain of salt, regardless of whether it confirms what we want to read.

However, Matt Miller of ESPN reported the Colts have Kentucky’s Will Levis ranked higher on their board than Florida’s Anthony Richardson.

    They need a Day 1 starter from this rookie class, too, and Levis is currently ahead of Anthony Richardson (Florida) for Indianapolis, according to sources close to the team, because he’s more likely to be able to play right away.

The Colts just wrapped up their top-30 visit with Richardson on Wednesday. They had their workout and visit with Levis last week. So they certainly are getting closer to finalizing their big board.

It’s difficult to imagine the difference between the prospects being their readiness to play Week 1. Both players have development ahead of them, and the Colts are likely going to take the prospect they believe has the highest ceiling. It’s not going to come down to who they think will start right away.

The Colts have been so tight-lipped when it comes to leaking information that an argument could be made that any reported information is done so deliberately and for a specific reason.

Out of the top-four quarterbacks, the most “sourced information” we’ve heard about has been with Levis. That partly could be due to the fact that C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young are expected to be selected with the first two picks.

However, it’s best to stay fluid with the information that’s being reported leading up to the draft. It’s usually done so for a specific reason and may not always come from the team’s officials.

Levis does have a profile the Colts would like so it’s not a wild idea to believe in general. He’s tough, a strong leader and has an admirable work ethic to go along with elite arm strength and solid size for the position.

Levis very well could be the pick for the Colts in two weeks. They also could be doing this to deter teams from trading up for Richardson.

We won’t know for sure until draft night arrives, but this is something to keep in the back of our minds.

NEW ENGLAND

QB TRACE McSORLEY is a Patriot.  Mark Daniels of MassLive.com:

The Patriots are adding more competition to their quarterback room.

On Thursday, the Patriots announced that they signed veteran Trace McSorely. Terms of the deal weren’t disclosed. The-27-year-old last played for the Arizona Cardinals. Last season, he appeared in six games, which included his first NFL start. McSorely threw for 412 yards to go with zero touchdowns and five interceptions.

McSorely will enter this offseason as the third-string quarterback behind Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe. The team released veteran Brian Hoyer, who signed with Las Vegas, so there was a need for another player on this depth chart. Historically, the Patriots carry three quarterbacks into the offseason.

McSorely has a small connection to new Patriots offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien. He was recruited by O’Brien’s Penn State staff but never offered. Ultimately, McSorely committed to Penn State to follow new coach James Franklin after O’Brien went to the Houston Texans. McSorely is known as an athletic quarterback. He ran for 1,697 yards in college.

McSorely entered the NFL as a sixth-round pick of the Baltimore Ravens in 2019. He was the Ravens third-string quarterback behind Lamar Jackson and Robert Griffin III in 2019 and 2020. He appeared in two games with the Ravens, throwing 90 yards and a touchdown. In 2021, McSorely spent the season on Baltimore’s practice squad and was signed off that practice squad by the Cardinals.

He started last season as Arizona’s third-string quarterback. After Kyler Murray suffered a season-ending injury against the Patriots last season, McSorely was the backup to Colt McCoy. When McCoy suffered a head injury in Week 15, McSorely made his first-career NFL start against Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He completed 24/45 passes for 217 yards with an interception. He was benched the next week for Davis Blough.

The Patriots could still add a quarterback in the upcoming 2023 NFL Draft, but by signing McSorely, they don’t necessarily have to. The team met with projected first-round pick Anthony Richardson at the NFL Combine and reportedly met with Louisville’s Malik Cunningham as well.

THIS AND THAT

2022 RE-DRAFT

If they knew then what they know now, Nick Baumgardner of The Athletic with a 2022 re-draft:

In football, grading in the moment is impossible. Grading an entire draft within a year is also pretty difficult, but it’s possible the year provides evidence of true progress and, perhaps, adjusts future outlooks. Context matters so much in football, and it’s everything when determining how a rookie is performing in the NFL.

That said, let’s go back a year and look at the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft. How might things shake out if that draft were held again today?

(Note: The draft order here is as it was when Round 1 began — before any draft-day trades were made.)

1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Sauce Gardner, CB, Cincinnati

Original pick: Travon Walker, Edge, Georgia

It didn’t take very long before Gardner not only looked like the best rookie but arguably the best cornerback in the NFL, regardless of age. The 6-foot-3, 200-pounder can do everything — either on an island or in zone — and is the prototype for the modern CB1 moving forward. This is the easiest pick in hindsight.

2. Detroit Lions: Aidan Hutchinson, Edge, Michigan

Original pick: Aidan Hutchinson, Edge, Michigan

If it weren’t for Gardner’s special rookie year, Hutchinson (whom the Lions also picked in real life, obviously) would have been the Defensive Rookie of the Year without much argument. He showed a bit of what he can do for a defense in his first year — pass rush, run defense, pass coverage — and should continue to improve. Detroit got exactly what it wanted.

3. Houston Texas: Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State

Original pick: Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU

Is this high for a receiver? Maybe, but there weren’t three better first-year players last season than Wilson. You could argue there weren’t two. Wilson played for a Jets team that had no serious answer at quarterback and still put together a marvelous rookie campaign with 1,103 receiving yards and 22 forced missed tackles — the latter placing him second only to Deebo Samuel among full-time starting receivers.

4. New York Jets: Kayvon Thibodeaux, Edge, Oregon

Original pick: Sauce Gardner, CB, Cincinnati

Starting the year injured was hardly ideal, and it pushed Thibodeaux’s rookie-hiccup stage deeper into the season than the Giants would’ve liked. However, he found a groove toward the middle of the year, especially after a nine-pressure game at Dallas on Thanksgiving. Despite the delayed start, Thibodeaux still finished with 45 pressures, third most among rookie edges.

5. New York Giants: Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State

Original pick: Kayvon Thibodeaux, Edge, Oregon

It’s debatable whether Olave should be above Wilson. The pair played on the same college team, shared reps and learned how to be pros by challenging each other. Both were outstanding as rookies, too. Olave, who took reps all over the Saints’ offensive formations, led all major rookie contributors with 2.42 yards per route run and also logged a 14.9-yard average depth of target. A true weapon.

6. Carolina Panthers: Tyler Smith, OL, Tulsa

Original pick: Ikem Ekwonu, OL, N.C. State

It’s hard to briefly summarize just how impressive Smith’s performance was as a rookie. The Cowboys drafted him at No. 24 to be a guard, but he wound up starting Week 1 at left tackle and never really looked back. Though there may be quibbles with who the top rookie offensive lineman was last season, it’s impossible to argue against Smith being one of the biggest steals (perhaps the biggest steal) in last year’s draft.

7. New York Giants: Ikem Ekwonu, OL, NC State

Original pick: Evan Neal, OT, Alabama

We’ll say the Giants, so far, went 1-for-2 in the top 10 (more on that in a bit). In this redraft, the Giants already grabbed a receiver (Olave), so we move to the next OT on my list — which is still Ekwonu, who falls just one spot from his original pick. The 22-year-old had an up-and-down rookie year, but that was expected by anyone familiar with his college film. His traits are still undeniable, though. He had his flashes and really found a groove in the middle of the year before wearing down a bit late.

8. Atlanta Falcons: Drake London, WR, USC

Original pick: Drake London, WR, USC

The Falcons get (mock) rewarded for making a great pick last year. The top receiver trio here could be pretty memorable if health and quarterbacks cooperate over time. London, after fighting off a preseason injury, was consistently very good for an Atlanta team that’s still figuring out what it wants to do at QB. He finished the year with a contested-catch rate of 53.8 percent — a shade behind the 54.5 clip Justin Jefferson posted as a rookie in 2020 — while being targeted 114 times. London, too, could’ve been the pick at No. 3 here.

9. Seattle Seahawks: Abe Lucas, OT, Washington State

Original pick: Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State

Well, this is awkward — Cross and Lucas are teammates in Seattle. That happened because the Seahawks grabbed Lucas at No. 72, and that has been a real steal. Wherever you slot him among the 2022 rookie tackles, you have to admit that Lucas massively outperformed his draft slot. The case could be made that Seattle would still take Cross here, as his upside could still be better, but Lucas was the better of the two last season. Either way, it’s great news for the Seahawks, who still have both guys in real life.

10. New York Jets: Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU

Original pick: Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State

Stingley’s rookie year is tough to grade. A foot injury cost him part of his final year at LSU, then a hamstring injury shut him down after just nine games of his rookie season. What’d we learn in those nine games? First, Stingley looked very much like a prospect still overcoming an injury, even when he was “healthy.” Yet he still very much moved like the player we saw during his best days in college. Don’t give up on his potential.

11. Washington Commanders: Travon Walker, Edge, Georgia

Original pick: Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State

Walker’s traits are why he was drafted No. 1. As with Ekwonu, most viewed Walker as a player who would need time to develop, especially in terms of his skill set as a pass rusher. He played with a stacked deck at Georgia, and his responsibilities were limited in part because there was so much depth. You’d like to see him be more consistent versus the run as he improves everything else, but Walker’s growth was always going to be a bit slower than that of Hutchinson or Thibodeaux just based on where he was as a prospect on draft day.

12. Minnesota Vikings: Tariq Woolen, CB, UTSA

Original pick: Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama (to Detroit via trade)

Should Minnesota have traded this pick? Maybe, maybe not. We’ll see how the returns pan out over time.

Woolen (No. 153, Seattle) outplayed his draft spot, perhaps more than any player on this list. He should not have fallen to the fifth round. He played at a small school and switched over from receiver midway through his career, so there was a lot to be scared about. But he’s also 6-4, 205 and ran a 4.29-second 40 with a 42-inch vert and a broad jump of 10 feet 11 inches. Every Power 5 coach in America whiffed on this guy — and so did every NFL team (at least once or twice) last year.

13. Philadelphia Eagles: Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington

Original pick: Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia

McDuffie, the former Washington Huskies star, was sticky in coverage all season for the Chiefs and played a big part in their Super Bowl run. He can still improve in some areas (62.1 percent catch rate against), but he just doesn’t let pass catchers get anything beyond the absolute minimum after a grab. His 10.1 yards per reception against was actually better than Gardner’s (10.6).

14. Baltimore Ravens: Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa

Original pick: Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame

To the surprise of absolutely no one, Linderbaum looked awesome (once he was healthy) as a rookie center in Baltimore. The former Iowa star was a perfect fit — and a steal at 25 — for the Ravens and had stretches in which he looked like a future Pro Bowler. He wasn’t quite on Creed Humphrey’s level as a rookie, but he also was not too far behind as a run blocker.

15. Houston Texans: Jamaree Salyer, OL, Georgia

Original pick: Kenyon Green, OG, Texas A&M

Many, many people were down on Salyer coming out of college because of how he’s built (6-3, 321), his issues with keeping his weight down and his general inconsistency. This is also where I tell you The Athletic’s Dane Brugler thought Salyer was a second-round talent and had a chance to outperform that stock immediately. He was right — though even Dane must have been a bit surprised to see how well Salyer performed at tackle after the Chargers lost Rashawn Slater. At No. 195, Salyer was one of the best picks of the 2022 draft — right up there with Woolen.

16. New Orleans Saints: Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State

Original pick: Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State

Context is king. Watson was a small-school prospect who overcame multiple surgeries and was still raw upon his NFL arrival. As we’ve mentioned with other prospects here, though, his talent and traits were undeniable. That was the case throughout his draft process, and it’s why a lot of people wondered if he’d wind up in the first round. He probably should have (Green Bay took him at 34), but the Packers got the win as they were willing to ride out what was sure to be a somewhat slow start.

17. Los Angeles Chargers: Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State

Original pick: Zion Johnson, OG, Boston College

Cross isn’t tumbling out of the first round entirely, as the former Bulldog was better in protection during the second half of the 2022 season than he was at the start. Cross was among the youngest offensive linemen drafted last year — younger than Ekwonu. Lucas, by contrast, was among the oldest. In a year, maybe we swap which of those two has the edge, but it should be fun for Seattle to watch it play out.

18. Tennessee Titans: Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State

Original pick: Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas

Dotson (who missed five games because of injury) played his rookie season with Carson Wentz, Taylor Heinicke and Sam Howell throwing him passes. His final five games, however, served as proof he belonged in the first round: 21 catches, 342 yards, three touchdowns. Despite battling that injury, he closed the season better than he started it.

19. New Orleans Saints: Braxton Jones, OT, Southern Utah

Original pick: Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa

Jones, per Pro Football Focus, was the best run-blocking rookie tackle in the NFL last season. A fifth-round pick (No. 168) by Ryan Poles and the Bears, Jones — with an assist from Chicago O-line coach Chris Morgan — was able to leap through his roller-coaster phase and let his terrific athleticism take over. As a 17-game starter with room to grow, he’s another player who looks like a steal.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh

Original pick: Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh

This is a toughie. I don’t think any of last draft’s quarterback-needy teams would take Pickett earlier than this today if they had it to do over again. Pittsburgh, though, seems to be convinced it would select Pickett again – at least publicly.

The 2022 QB class was labeled as weak during the draft process, and I don’t think anything happened to change my mind there. Brock Purdy had success, but he’s also playing with San Francisco’s roster and his coaches are Kyle Shanahan, Anthony Lynn and Brian Griese. So … probably not much else is changing here quarterbacks-wise.

21. Kansas City Chiefs: Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia

Original pick: Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington

Davis is one of the fastest giant humans we’ve ever seen. He’s a first-round pick today, yesterday, tomorrow, next week — it’s just a matter of where. The questions about Davis’ game — that he leans too much or has inconsistent pad level — haven’t vanished, and an ankle injury was ultimately his biggest issue last season. But this is a 6-6, 341-pounder who ran a 4.78 40-yard dash. He is a first-round pick by all definitions.

22. Green Bay Packers: Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame

Original pick: Quay Walker, LB, Georgia

This is probably too low for Hamilton, who, like his rookie teammate Linderbaum, had an outstanding debut season at a very difficult position. Safeties are always tough to slot, just like centers. Frankly, I wanted to give Baltimore both Hamilton and Linderbaum at 14 because they were such great selections in real life.

23. Buffalo Bills: Jalen Pitre, S, Baylor

Original pick: Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida

Going on a safety run here. As was the case during his stellar run at Baylor, Pitre was all over the place last year for Houston. He led all rookie safeties with five interceptions and was second only to Woolen’s six among rookie defenders. Pitre still needs to tighten things up, but he outperformed his original draft slot (No. 37).

24. Dallas Cowboys: Zion Johnson, OG, Boston College

Original pick: Tyler Smith, OL, Tulsa

The Cowboys get another good lineman here. In so many ways, Johnson played like a rookie, but he was a competitive one. He started every game, gained playoff experience and was better in November and December than he was in September and October.

25. Baltimore Ravens: Kerby Joseph, S, Illinois

Original pick: Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa

Another safety, this time the Lions’ third-rounder. Like many guys in this redraft, it took Joseph a bit of time to find stability and adjust to the speed of the NFL. Once that happened, though, he took off. He finished the year with four picks as a very active, physical center fielder for Detroit. Joseph also played his best ball at the end of the year — you might be noticing a theme there, too.

26. New York Jets: Jermaine Johnson, Edge, Florida State

Original pick: Jermaine Johnson, Edge, Florida State

The thing I liked most about Johnson coming out of college was that he didn’t really do anything poorly. There wasn’t a ton of “elite” to his tape, but there also weren’t any holes. Nobody in the class retraced runs like he did. Johnson gets everything out of his body, and he probably has a higher ceiling than people think.

27. Jacksonville Jaguars: Evan Neal, OT, Alabama

Original pick: Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah

Neal’s traits are still first-round caliber — probably even top half of the first round. He still has 34-inch arms and an 83-inch wingspan at 6-7, 334. He’s also still the guy who played three positions in three years at Alabama while being one of the youngest OTs in the class. There was a lot to clean up when he got to New York.

He and Cross had similar maturation issues as pass protectors last season, and Neal wound up “leading” all rookies with 52 pressures allowed. He remains very talented, though, and Brian Daboll’s staff can coach. Don’t give up on him yet.

28. Green Bay Packers: George Pickens, WR, Georgia

Original pick: Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia

The Steelers scored Pickens at No. 52 last year and, though he dropped too many passes as a rookie, it’s safe to say he outplayed his draft spot. The physical receiver wound up with a contested-catch rate of 67.9 percent, the best of any rookie with at least 70 targets last year.

29. New England Patriots: Zach Tom, OL, Wake Forest

Original pick: Cole Strange, OL, Chattanooga

There was nothing wrong with Strange’s rookie season, and he improved as a pass protector as the season progressed. But Tom’s first year was better, so he’s here in the redraft. Tom (No. 140) showed versatility on his college tape, and Green Bay saw that first-hand — Tom took reps at every spot but center as a rookie.

30. Kansas City Chiefs: George Karlaftis, Edge, Purdue

Original pick: George Karlaftis, Edge, Purdue

I thought about giving Karlaftis to the Jets at No. 26, but the fit here was just too perfect. We can safely say that Karlaftis’ power translated to the NFL — that wasn’t in question, really. He’ll always have to overcome length issues and still can find more ways to contribute, but he should only get better as he moves deeper into his career.

31. Cincinnati Bengals: Marcus Jones, CB, Arizona State

Original pick: Daxton Hill, S, Michigan

Jones, a third-round pick by New England (No. 85), was a Pro Bowl punt returner last season and notched two picks and four pass breakups for the Patriots’ secondary. He became a full-time fixture in Bill Belichick’s defensive backfield over the last month of the season.

32. Detroit Lions: Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama

Original pick: Lewis Cine, S, Georgia (to Minnesota via trade)

Someone else might take Williams before this, although he basically redshirted during the 2022 season — as expected — while coming back from a knee injury. The Lions probably would jump on him again, though, considering they traded up for him last year despite knowing he wouldn’t be available until late in the year (if at all). You also could make an argument for Detroit linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez somewhere on this board. The 2022 class was a great haul for Lions GM Brad Holmes.

2023 DRAFT

Matt Miller and Jordan Reid of ESPN.com have a dual draft – need vs. best athlete.

So we asked our NFL draft analysts to explore both sides of the table for all 31 first-round picks. First, Matt Miller named a prospect who would best fill every team’s biggest (or in some cases, second-biggest) need. Second, Jordan Reid pointed to the prospect who would give each team maximum value and satisfy a “best player available” approach. Repeat picks weren’t allowed, so each selection was based on the current board for each analyst. The lower we get in Round 1, the more variety you’ll see. Essentially, we tried to lay out a few options for every front office gearing up for a Day 1 pick.

Let’s get to it, starting with an easy one in Carolina.

1. Carolina Panthers (from CHI)

Miller’s pick that fills a big need: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

The Panthers need a lot of things, but no position is of bigger importance than quarterback. Since the departure of Cam Newton in 2020, quarterback has been the Panthers’ annual biggest need. And they didn’t just trade up to No. 1 to take a receiver. Young is my top overall quarterback and gives Carolina its new face of the franchise.

Reid’s pick that gets best value: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

While Young isn’t my No. 1 overall player, he is the top-ranked quarterback and is right near the top of my board, so this still checks the “best value” box for me. After trial runs with veterans like Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, the Panthers could get a franchise signal-caller to build around.

2. Houston Texans

Miller’s pick that fills a big need: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State

The Texans need a post-Deshaun Watson quarterback in the worst way. With a good offensive line already in place, Stroud would step into an offense that is seeking a captain and point guard — and that’s why he fits so well in Houston.

Reid’s pick that gets best value: Will Anderson Jr., OLB, Alabama

Yes, this will almost definitely be a quarterback. But if we’re looking strictly at value, Anderson is the No. 1 overall prospect in this class. No, taking Stroud isn’t a reach by any means, but Anderson is a defensive star in the making at a premium position.

3. Arizona Cardinals

Miller’s pick that fills a big need: Will Anderson Jr., OLB, Alabama

The Cardinals might have the worst roster in the NFL, but the biggest hole comes at pass-rusher. The former regime threw a ton of draft capital at versatile defenders, but there isn’t a player on the roster who will scare opposing offenses by consistently getting after the QB. Anderson was the best defender in college football the past two years and has instant-impact ability and a double-digit sack future.

Reid’s pick that gets best value: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia

Carter has a strong case himself as the best player in the draft, and despite a slight slip in his stock during the pre-draft process, he would make Arizona’s front much better and give it a disruptive presence in the middle of the defense.

4. Indianapolis Colts

Miller’s pick that fills a big need: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

Going back to Andrew Luck’s retirement, the Colts have attempted to fill the QB void through a series of bad decisions. The best-case scenario for the Colts would be one of the top two quarterbacks falling here, but with Young and Stroud gone on my side of things, it has to be Levis. His ability to play right away pushes him over Florida’s Anthony Richardson for me.

Reid’s pick that gets best value: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State

I think we’d all be shocked if Stroud is still here at No. 4, but based on how the value-only board is playing out, he’d more than qualify as the pick here. He’s an extremely accurate passer who would not only take care of a problem area for Indy but also be considered a straight-up steal inside the top five.

5. Seattle Seahawks (from DEN)

Miller’s pick that fills a big need: Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech

The Seahawks have to find more juice in the pass-rush department, and Wilson brings plenty of that with his first-step quickness and length off the edge. Wide receiver or quarterback of the future are worth a look here, but the No. 1 need is to find a true starter on the edge, even after the addition of Dre’Mont Jones in free agency.

Reid’s pick that gets best value: Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech

The stars align here, as Seattle also takes the best available prospect in the trenches. Wilson is the type of player the Seahawks tend to gravitate toward. His length, strength and physicality fit well with their defense, and even though he still has some developing to do, Wilson would be a big upgrade on a young defensive line.

6. Detroit Lions (from LAR)

Miller’s pick that fills a big need: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia

Detroit has good edge rushers and spent to add three new starters to the secondary in free agency, but the middle of the defensive line is wide open. Carter’s off-field question marks must be vetted by any team that drafts him — in March he pleaded no contest to charges of reckless driving and racing in connection with a crash that killed a Bulldogs teammate and a recruiting staff member — but the Lions have a good structure in place to help him transition to the pros.

Reid’s pick that gets best value: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

After trading Jeff Okudah to the Falcons, the Lions now have a gaping hole at outside corner in their secondary. And after a quick look at the board, the Lions are in luck. Gonzalez is the top-ranked corner on my board and the No. 6 player overall. He’d be a great add for an ascending team.

7. Las Vegas Raiders

Miller’s pick that fills a big need: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois

This is not a good roster, but perhaps the biggest problem is at cornerback. With Nate Hobbs and Brandon Facyson penciled in as starters right now, it’s obvious the Raiders must come out of the draft with at least one new starter candidate there. Witherspoon is my top cornerback in this class. He’s a 6-foot, 181-pound wrecking ball and sticky cover man who would immediately be the team’s top option outside.

Reid’s pick that gets best value: Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern

The Raiders could go a lot of different directions with this pick, but if you want value, Skoronski at No. 7 overall is pretty good. He’s capable of playing all five positions up front and could quickly become a key part of the protection for quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.

8. Atlanta Falcons

Miller’s pick that fills a big need: Lukas Van Ness, DE, Iowa

Depending on how you feel about QB Desmond Ridder, you might go quarterback here. The Falcons, however, continue to say that Ridder is the starter for 2023, so we’ll take their word for it and look at defensive end. The interior of the defensive line is stacked, but Atlanta could use some speed and power coming off the edge. Van Ness has jaw-dropping power, length and burst.

Reid’s pick that gets best value: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

Robinson is a top-five player on my board. Positional downgrade aside, he would likely be among the best prospects on most teams’ boards by this point in the draft, too. Pairing Tyler Allgeier with Robinson gives a run-heavy team a dynamic one-two punch in the backfield. While such a pick could raise some eyebrows on draft night, adding one of the best players in the draft at this spot was a no-brainer in this exercise.

9. Chicago Bears (from CAR)

Miller’s pick that fills a big need: Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern

With Braxton Jones and Teven Jenkins penciled in as starters, there are legitimate questions at offensive tackle. Both players have potential and talent, but if we’re talking what this roster needs right now, it’s a franchise-caliber left tackle. Skoronski is a mauler and a technician, and he would immediately boost the entire offensive line and give Justin Fields a bodyguard on his backside.

Reid’s pick that gets best value: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois

Witherspoon is the top remaining player on my board. Yes, there are bigger needs, but adding an aggressive corner to coach Matt Eberflus’ defense would help the continued retool on that side of the ball. Witherspoon’s instincts and polished technique fit in well here.

10. Philadelphia Eagles (from NO)

Miller’s pick that fills a big need: Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh

After re-signing key veterans in free agency to keep most of the defense intact, the Eagles can start thinking about the future. Finding the next Fletcher Cox would be nice, but how about an impact three-down pass-rusher? Kancey is more likely to go later in Round 1 and is outside the top 20 on my board, but this is the No. 1 need in Philadelphia.

Reid’s pick that gets best value: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

Imagine adding Smith-Njigba to an offense that already includes Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert? One of the top offenses in the league would be getting my top-ranked wideout in this class. We saw the Cowboys go “best player available” with receiver CeeDee Lamb in 2020, and that worked out well.

11. Tennessee Titans

Miller’s pick that fills a big need: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

The Ryan Tannehill era is likely on its last legs, and Malik Willis hasn’t shown the tools to be the answer at quarterback. Richardson’s physical traits and upside are outstanding. He has a huge arm, awesome running ability and a 6-foot-4 build that can punish NFL defenses. He needs time to develop, but his ceiling is unlimited.

Reid’s pick that gets best value: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

Richardson will likely go a lot higher than this, but he’s No. 14 overall on my board. Taking the position into consideration, I think this would safely be considered strong value at No. 11 as the heir apparent to Tannehill. This offense is predicated on quick-game timing-based passing and downhill running, which seems like a perfect scheme to groom Richardson into an eventual starter down the road.

12. Houston Texans (from CLE)

Miller’s pick that fills a big need: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

With quarterback set after the No. 1 overall pick, now it’s time to look at the second-biggest need … wide receiver. Even after adding Roberts Woods and Noah Brown, and accounting for a healthy John Metchie III, the Texans lack a true WR1. JSN is the best receiver in the draft class and projects as that true No. 1 target.

Reid’s pick that gets best value: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State

The 12th-ranked player on my board goes to the team owning the No. 12 overall pick. Pairing Porter with Stingley would give the Texans two building blocks on the perimeter. And Porter is tailor-made for the versatile defensive scheme of DeMeco Ryans.

13. New York Jets

Miller’s pick that fills a big need: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State

We’re assuming Aaron Rodgers becomes a Jet, so quarterback isn’t our target position. Instead, I’m looking at left tackle, which has been an issue and must be addressed with a long-term solution. Johnson is a long, easy-moving tackle who is a day one starter on the left side.

Reid’s pick that gets best value: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State

The Jets were decimated with injuries at offensive tackle last season, so I’m sure they’d love to land the No. 11-ranked player in Johnson. He is full of potential and is still in the early stages of playing the position.

14. New England Patriots

Miller’s pick that fills a big need: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia

Trent Brown is the starting left tackle in New England right now, but at 30 years old, he’s not a long-term play. So left tackle has to be the first area of improvement in the draft. Jones needs seasoning, but his traits — power, length and quickness — are those of an NFL starter.

Reid’s pick that gets best value: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia

Ranked 13th on my board, Jones has a very high ceiling. He started only 19 games during his career at Georgia, and Jones is just scratching the surface of what he could become in the future. His long arms, foot quickness and hand strength will give him an opportunity to quickly become one of the best young blockers in the league.

15. Green Bay Packers

Miller’s pick that fills a big need: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College

It’s not just a running joke that the Packers don’t pick receivers early in the draft, it’s a reality that has left the roster thin at the position. Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs have promise, but more help is required. Flowers is the dynamic deep threat and yards-after-catch menace that this offense lacks.

Reid’s pick that gets best value: Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson

With Rashan Gary recovering from a torn right ACL, the Packers are in search of consistent options opposite of Preston Smith. Guess who would be the top player available if the board fell this way? Murphy is an explosive pass-rushing prospect who checks a lot of the boxes for the Packers’ defense.

16. Washington Commanders

Miller’s pick that fills a big need: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

The Commanders’ entire secondary could use an upgrade, but especially at cornerback, where Kendall Fuller and Benjamin St-Juste are the current starters. Gonzalez has elite positional traits, including length, speed and a 6-foot-1 frame. Plus, he turned in four interceptions during his first season with Oregon in 2022.

Reid’s pick that gets best value: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee

I’m sticking to the board while also continuing to revamp Washington’s offensive front with Wright, who gives the Commanders an option at right or left tackle. He could provide immediate competition for Charles Leno Jr. but also a security blanket if the Andrew Wylie signing doesn’t work out as planned. But Wright could also be an early starter on the interior.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers

Miller’s pick that fills a big need: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee

The Steelers have built an offensive line without investing early-round picks, but that product shows on the field. After adding free agent right guard Isaac Seumalo, plugging in a dominant run-blocker like Wright next to him gives Pittsburgh a legitimate strength and would boost the run game for star back Najee Harris.

Reid’s pick that gets best value: Jordan Addison, WR, USC

With my 17th-ranked (Nolan Smith) and 18th-ranked (Addison) players still on the board, I’m going with the latter. Addison would provide another threat on the perimeter for the Steelers. And remember, quarterback Kenny Pickett and Addison already have chemistry from their days at Pitt, where they won a conference championship and got Addison a Biletnikoff Award.

18. Detroit Lions

Miller’s pick that fills a big need: Drew Sanders, ILB, Arkansas

Detroit got a defensive tackle at No. 6, but we can all agree it still has work to do on defense. Linebacker is a weak link, and Sanders would be the true three-down presence the team currently lacks. He had 9.5 sacks last year, too, which shows his versatility as a defender. Sanders is my No. 39 overall player, but he fills the Lions’ largest remaining hole here.

Reid’s pick that gets best value: Nolan Smith, OLB, Georgia

As was the case at No. 6 when we picked Gonzalez for Detroit, value meshes with need here. An explosive and powerful rusher off the edge, Smith would provide the Lions with another versatile rusher alongside Aidan Hutchinson and James Houston.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Miller’s pick that fills a big need: Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma

OK, now I’m starting to reach. Harrison is my No. 62 overall player in the class, but there’s no denying the need for an offensive tackle in Tampa Bay after it released Donovan Smith. Harrison is a talented tackle with good movement skills but must improve his play strength. The value isn’t here with this pick, and it highlights the significant drop-off at the position after the top four are off the board.

Reid’s pick that gets best value: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College

There are some people around the league who believe that Flowers is the most dynamic player in this year’s draft class. Teaming him up with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Russell Gage could take the Bucs’ offense to another level. With question marks at quarterback, adding another pass-catcher helps, but I’d imagine Tampa Bay goes another direction here, most likely leaning toward the “need” side.

20. Seattle Seahawks

Miller’s pick that fills a big need: Jordan Addison, WR, USC

Wilson at No. 5 checked off the pass rush, so the Seahawks are free to focus on offense and adding a WR3 who can become a front-line starter once Tyler Lockett has moved on. Addison is an efficient route runner with sure hands and the ability to play immediately from the slot. He has great quickness and instincts.

Reid’s pick that gets best value: Calijah Kancey, DT, Pitt

Kancey isn’t quite the best player still on my board, but he’s up there (No. 22). And the Seahawks would be adding an explosive option on the inside. Kancey has the potential to revolutionize Seattle’s passing defense the moment he steps on the field as a rookie. His hand aggression and first-step burst are the best of any interior defender in the 2023 class.

21. Los Angeles Chargers

Miller’s pick that fills a big need: Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee

A deep threat with top-tier speed is exactly what the Chargers’ offense has been missing. Even if you like Josh Palmer as WR3 — and I do — there’s no denying the offense must evolve past the possession-style receivers like Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Hyatt opens up the offense for more deep shots from day one.

Reid’s pick that gets best value: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

I’d love to get Los Angeles a receiver, but the value isn’t there. My next-best WR is ranked outside the top 30. But the Chargers lack true options behind Allen and Williams, and there are two tight ends ranked higher — including Mayer, who is 21st on my board. The addition would not only give quarterback Justin Herbert another target but also provide Los Angeles with a key blocker in the run game.

22. Baltimore Ravens

Miller’s pick that fills a big need: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State

The Ravens signed free agent Odell Beckham Jr. so there isn’t a massive need at wide receiver any longer — though they should still add at least one more pass-catcher. But the spot opposite Marlon Humphrey at cornerback is open following Marcus Peters’ departure. Porter is long, physical and aggressive, and I’ve actually comped him to Humphrey. I love his scheme fit here.

Reid’s pick that gets best value: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland

Porter isn’t here, but Banks is, and he still offers really good value as a top-20 prospect. And like Porter, he is a big and aggressive corner who displays high-level instincts at the position.

23. Minnesota Vikings

Miller’s pick that fills a big need: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland

I was close to going quarterback here — yes, it’s a need — but after digging into the Vikings’ roster one more time, it’s obvious that cornerback is main spot where major improvement must happen in a hurry. The Vikings lack size and playmaking ability in the defensive starting lineup, and Banks brings both to the table.

Reid’s pick that gets best value: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

Levis is still projected to go in the top 10, so don’t get your hopes up, Vikings fans. But Levis is the 25th-ranked player on my board, and if we were taking positional bias out of it, this is the range that better fits his NFL projection. Minnesota will be looking for a heir apparent to Kirk Cousins — who is entering the final year of his deal — during the draft. Levis’ skill set aligns well with coach Kevin O’Connell’s system, and he would give the Vikings a young answer under center moving forward.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars

Miller’s pick that fills a big need: Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan

The middle of the defensive line in Jacksonville could use an upgrade, and Smith can be the anchor there between Josh Allen and Travon Walker. The Jaguars currently have solid players on that D-line, but Smith has the size, power and quickness to become a true force.

Reid’s pick that gets best value: Brian Branch, CB/S, Alabama

Tyson Campbell and Darious Williams are manning the outside corner spots, but the Jaguars are in need of a nickel corner/safety hybrid. Branch fits that perfectly as a physical presence with versatility. But I’m picking him here based on value; Branch is the top name on my best remaining list.

25. New York Giants

Miller’s pick that fills a big need: Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State

Many will argue for wide receiver here, but the Giants have added enough players that the depth chart looks solid, even if it still lacks one true star. The same cannot be said at cornerback, where an outside starter is a big-time need. Forbes lacks great size at 166 pounds, but he had 14 interceptions and six pick-sixes over his college career.

Reid’s pick that gets best value: Lukas Van Ness, DE, Iowa

Perhaps the Giants reach if no receiver or corner is right at the top of the deck at No. 25, but that’s not my aim here today. For what it’s worth, they do lack depth on the defensive front, and Van Ness would create a dynamic duo with Kayvon Thibodeaux and provide competition for Jihad Ward.

26. Dallas Cowboys

Miller’s pick that fills a big need: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

The Cowboys tended to major problem areas at receiver and offensive line in free agency, but now tight end is a weakness on the roster with Dalton Schultz gone to Houston. Mayer is a three-down tight end with above-average blocking ability and the surest hands of any prospect at the position.

Reid’s pick that gets best value: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah

I have the same position here, Matt. But Mayer is off my board, and Kincaid is one of the top two guys still available. He fits well with Dallas, which needs a dynamic “F” tight end. He would provide value in the passing game and could quickly fill the void left by Schultz.

27. Buffalo Bills

Miller’s pick that fills a big need: Nolan Smith, OLB, Georgia

We saw how important the pass rush is to Buffalo last year when Von Miller went down with an ACL injury. Now the Bills have to invest in finding the eventual Miller replacement. Smith is a blur coming off the edge and has the length and quickness to be a problem for offensive tackles in space.

Reid’s pick that gets best value: O’Cyrus Torrence, G, Florida

My top-ranked interior blocker, Torrence is tremendous value here for the Bills. Even after signing Connor McGovern, they don’t have much depth along the interior offensive front. Torrence could be an immediate answer at either guard spot as a strong, dependable blocker.

28. Cincinnati Bengals

Miller’s pick that fills a big need: DJ Turner, CB, Michigan

Depending on what happens with offensive tackle Jonah Williams, who requested a trade after the team signed Orlando Brown Jr. to play left tackle, the Bengals’ biggest need could end up being right tackle. But for now, it’s cornerback, where Eli Apple & Co. were picked on in the playoffs last season. Mike Hilton is a star in the slot, but an outside cornerback is a Day 1 priority. Turner has great speed and could help.

Reid’s pick that gets best value: Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State

Yes, I’m higher on Jones than most. But I’m basing this off my board, and I have him ranked at No. 28 overall. Plus, the Bengals could form the biggest set of offensive tackles in the league by complementing Brown with the 6-foot-8, 374-pound Jones. And the pick would give quarterback Joe Burrow a nice boost in protection should Williams get traded.

29. New Orleans Saints (from SF/MIA/DEN)

Miller’s pick that fills a big need: Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson

The Saints have never really replaced Trey Hendrickson, and they lost starter Marcus Davenport at defensive end this offseason. The time is now for the front office to invest in a pass-rusher who can make it to his second contract in New Orleans. Murphy doesn’t have great bend, but his speed and length are top-tier traits.

Reid’s pick that gets best value: Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson

Murphy is long gone for me, but I do think another Clemson player could present good value. After losing David Onyemata and Shy Tuttle, Bresee could walk into the facility and be an immediate contributor at defensive tackle. He’s stout at the point of attack, nimble as a pass-rusher and can penetrate the first level — all of which gives him a chance to have an impact as a rookie.

30. Philadelphia Eagles

Miller’s pick that fills a big need: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

The Eagles have so few needs and checked off the biggest one at No. 10 with a defensive tackle. So why not running back? Rashaad Penny hasn’t been able to stay healthy, and Kenneth Gainwell is a role player. Robinson would solve the running back question for the next five years at a very inexpensive clip.

Reid’s pick that gets best value: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama

It’s a nice coincidence that the top player still on my board also happens to be a running back, though it’s my RB2. Gibbs could be a big contributor in the passing game and use his big-play ability in the run game to be a real asset for a loaded Eagles offense.

31. Kansas City Chiefs

Miller’s pick that fills a big need: Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson

The Chiefs are coming off a Super Bowl victory in which the offense didn’t have a wide receiver record a 1,000-yard season, so this team can win in a variety of ways. GM Brett Veach has drafted very well to stock the roster with young, cheap talent. However, there isn’t a defensive tackle under contract past the 2023 season, which makes the interior a huge question mark for the future. Let’s go with Bresee to close things out.

Reid’s pick that gets best value: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU

Through 30 picks, my top 30 prospects have all come off the board. The next three are linebacker Drew Sanders (Arkansas), edge rusher Will McDonald IV (Iowa State) and Johnston, and they are all pretty close in grade. I think K.C. would be pumped to land Johnston here as a high-end playmaker for quarterback Patrick Mahomes. He’s a different type of wideout than what’s currently on the Chiefs’ roster, as a big-body target who can be used in various ways in Andy Reid’s diverse playbook.