The NFL has reinstated five players who were suspended for the 2023 season for violating the NFL’s gambling policy.

Washington Commanders defensive end Shaka Toney and four free agents — defensive end Rashod Berry, wide receiver Quintez Cephus, safety C.J. Moore, and defensive end Demetrius Taylor — were reinstated.

Defensive back Isaiah Rodgers, who also was suspended last year for at least the 2023 season, wasn’t reinstated Thursday. His situation remains under review, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported Thursday. Both Rodgers and Berry were with the Indianapolis Colts at the time of their suspensions, and both were released by the team last year.

Rodgers later signed with the Philadelphia Eagles, who hold his rights if he gets reinstated.

Cephus and Moore were with the Detroit Lions at the time of their suspensions and both were released by the team. Cephus had 60 catches for 568 yards and four touchdowns with the Lions in three seasons. Moore appeared in 56 games for Detroit from 2019-22.

Toney is a 2021 seventh-round pick who has 1.5 sacks with Washington in two seasons.

DETROIT

We think this means the gray/silver uniforms are gone.  If so, good idea.  Eric Woodyard of ESPN.com:

Inside the war room during the NFL draft in 2021, new Detroit Lions coach Dan Campbell asked team president Rod Wood when the black uniforms would return.

“When you win the division,” Wood responded.

Fresh off their first division title in three decades, the Lions will be back in black this season as an alternate uniform.

After falling one game shy of making their first Super Bowl appearance in 2023, the Lions will tap into their past with the infamous black uniforms now making their return.

The Lions officially unveiled the new look during an exclusive event for season-ticket holders on Thursday at Ford Field.

“It’s a new attitude. It’s a new style and it’s our style,” Campbell said. “So, with that, the jerseys come out with it.”

In 1948, Detroit introduced a new black uniform then brought it back in 2005 as an alternate jersey, featuring Honolulu Blue numbers with silver and white trim but shied away from the on-field look completely after 2007.

The new black jerseys can be paired with either black pants or the team’s blue pants, while the blue numbers feature a silver outline with “LIONS” across the chest.

The alternate matte blue helmets will now feature a black leaping Lions logo trimmed in silver.

“All I’ve gotta say is I’m going to start a petition so we can wear these bad boys for every home game,” said Lions great Calvin Johnson before cheers during the event. “It’s beautiful. This goes back to the Reeboks we wore back in the day. They’re bringing back the block numbers with a new fresh modern style.”

The Lions’ original plan was to roll out the jerseys during the exclusive presentation, but the jerseys were leaked online early Thursday in a now-deleted ad post.

The organization playfully responded to the news through a prerecorded video on X — formerly known as Twitter — that featured defensive tackle Alim McNeill.

“Whoever leaked the uniform video, we appreciate it,” McNeill said. “We appreciate you ruining all the hard work we put in. Video coming soon.”

McNeill was also on-site during the event to unveil the updated road uniforms while second-year tight end Sam LaPorta sported the revamped primary blue jersey, which features a blue and white stripe that ties to the jersey sleeves. Hall of Fame running back Barry Sanders was also in attendance and shared the stage with LaPorta.

“They’re nice. They’re cool. Love it. A little bit of a touch from the past with something new and exciting,” Sanders said. “It’s fitting that we’re looking at how the Lions start to turn over a new leaf and it’s almost fitting that they have new uniforms.”

Lions safety Kerby Joseph modeled the black threads across the grand stage in their home stadium.

“Honestly, blue is my favorite color, but I feel like this blue is unique. I feel like it’s really something about the richness of it,” Joseph said. “It really pops. So, I know when we go out there on the field, it will really pop and really stick out.”

There was a ton of excitement throughout Ford Field as hundreds of fans showed up to watch the presentation from the stands. Detroit will also host its first NFL draft next week.

Lions owner Sheila Ford Hamp drew cheers as she expressed her goal in the new threads for next season.

“One of the goals of 2024 is that at the end of the season, we will be hoisting the [Lombardi] trophy,” she said.

The team’s well-done uniform hype video is here.  A lot of nice subtle touches in the uniforms including a stitched “303.”

WASHINGTON

Has QB JAYDEN DANIELS become less than enthralled with the prospect of playing for the Commanders?  The betting markets seem to think so.  Mike Florio ofProFootballTalk.com:

The odds, they are a-changin’.

Two days ago, LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels had emerged as the clear favorite over North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye to be the second overall pick in the 2024 draft, -275 to +215. Now, DraftKings has both at -115.

At FanDuel, Daniels was at -250 and Maye was at +185. Now, they’re both -110.

The development comes after the Commanders brought Daniels, Maye, J.J. McCarthy, and Michael Penix Jr. in for a visit on the same day. Daniels’s agent reacted on X, and word is now spreading that perhaps Daniels doesn’t want to go to the Commanders.

The odds reflect the possibility that the Commanders will take Maye at No. 2 or trade out of the spot to a team that would take Daniels in that spot.

Look for more movement as bettors place action based on their best guesses as to what will happen. For now, and as the odds suggest, it’s anybody’s guess as to who will go second.

LAS VEGAS

Reach for a QB or settle for an elite CB?  Paul Gutierrez of ESPN.com on the Raiders round 1 choice.

Maxx Crosby was a fourth-round draft choice of the Raiders in 2019, when the franchise called Oakland home and when he was a clean-shaven baby face with dyed-blonde hair. Crosby was selected No. 106 overall out of mid-major Eastern Michigan and has those digits tattooed in red ink and underlined on the inside of his right elbow to remind him from whence he came.

So yeah, the Raiders’ three-time Pro Bowl edge rusher takes a personal interest in the NFL draft every year, especially with Las Vegas holding the No. 13 pick. Crosby knows what he wants to see in a Raiders draft pick going forward.

“I look at the things that require zero talent,” Crosby said at the start of the Raiders’ voluntary offseason workout program. “Everybody’s talented in the NFL, everyone’s got ability. The things that matter to me are dudes that are consistent, and they’ve got relentless effort. Dudes that are curious and continuously looking to find ways to improve. I don’t give a s— if you went to Alaska State Technical Institute or Nebraska or LSU. … At the end of the day, I want dudes who love this s—, and you can’t fake it.

“That’s what I look for when I’m watching film. … All the rest of the stuff you clean it up along the way. But I think it just starts with effort and consistency.”

No doubt that’s what coach Antonio Pierce and new general manager Tom Telesco are also looking for, regardless of position — that intensity and love for the game. And with a scheduled eight picks, Las Vegas is in position to address real and specific roster holes.

But while quarterback is front and center, the Raiders also have glaring needs at right tackle and cornerback that could be addressed early in the draft.

“As far as roster construction, there’s no one specific way to build a team,” Telesco said in his introductory media conference in January. “Everybody always says that anyways, but I do believe in the draft. But you also have to supplement that with free agency. You have to supplement that with trades. You have to supplement that with signing players that maybe are out of work or are on the street looking for jobs and see if they can come in and fit.”

We have gone over the Raiders QB quandary ad nauseum already, and Telesco commented on how so many quarterbacks in the class being college transfers might impact his evaluation.

“There are just so many … you just have to deal with it,” he said at the combine. “If this was 15, 20 years ago … a little bit more of a red flag. It really isn’t anymore. It does take us a little bit more time as we do our background research because you have to go to multiple schools, talk to multiple scouts … but I don’t see that as a red flag for kids transferring.”

The extra COVID year has also led to more disparity in the ages of prospects, which shows with the top quarterbacks on the board.

While North Carolina’s Drake Maye and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy are both 21 years old and only played at one school, USC’s Caleb Williams is 22 and also played at Oklahoma. LSU’s Jayden Daniels — who began his college career at Arizona State — and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr., who also played at Indiana, are 23. Oregon’s Bo Nix, who transferred from Auburn, is 24.

“The quarterback position, I don’t think it’s a bad thing if you come out a little bit older, and maybe even a better thing,” Telesco said. “You’ve got more experience under your belt, more maturity at that position. Other positions, it may or may not matter, it’s just something we have to deal with. But I think after we get through this COVID group of kids that come through, it’ll probably really come back to normal a little bit.

“Typically, as a scouting staff, we always say we’d like a younger player because the guy has a chance to develop, maybe has a little bit more ceiling. Is that true or not? I’m not really sure.”

Let’s say the Raiders go with Penix. Selecting the left-hander then makes drafting an elite right tackle even more of a priority given that position is tasked with protecting a southpaw QB’s blindside.

If the Raiders stand pat at No. 13, they should have a clear path at drafting a top tackle prospect. Notre Dame’s Joe Alt is probably gone by then, but Alabama’s JC Latham, Oregon State’s Taliese Fuaga and Penn State’s Olumuyiwa Fashanu could all be available.

“Yeah, man, there’s some big boys now,” Pierce said. “That [offensive] tackle group, oh my God. Like, you’re talking about a bunch of trees walking around at the combine and at these pro days. It’s impressive.”

If the Raiders are unable to trade up for Daniels and get the sense that Penix’s draft stock is falling, they could take that elite offensive tackle prospect at No. 13. They they can use their second- and third-round picks to trade up into the end of the first round to select Penix with what many see as a more cost-effective and, thus, appropriate draft pick.

Or … Las Vegas makes a strength even stronger by going defense.

Jack Jones, claimed off waivers in November, was a revelation at cornerback. And with Nate Hobbs in the slot in the Raiders’ nickel defense, drafting a shutdown corner on other side might be tempting.

After all, Pierce is a defensive guy, having played nine years in the NFL as a linebacker who went to a Pro Bowl and won a Super Bowl with the Giants. And the Raiders gave up the fewest points per game in the NFL (16.0) after Pierce was made interim coach following the Halloween night firing of Josh McDaniels.

Paging, then, Alabama’s duo of Terrion Arnold and Kool-Aid McKinstry, Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell, Iowa’s Cooper DeJean and Clemson’s Nate Wiggins.

“Yeah, I like Arnold, man,” Pierce said. “We had some good conversations at the start of the combine because he kind of came in a little lackadaisical and I was like, ‘Hey man, where’s the juice? I heard you had a little stuff to you.’ And that picked up.

“Whenever you can be around a good football player, you want to talk to him. And I think it’s good for a person like myself, a former player, to tell him what to expect. … He’s got to start from scratch and earn his stripes. So, when you look at this draft, you do see a bunch of talented DBs, who I think can come in and play right away.”

So long as they pass Crosby’s initial tape test, right?

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

The Chargers new GM is acting like it will take a huge offer to get him to trade down.  Coral Smith of NFL.com:

With the 2024 NFL Draft now only a week away from kicking off in Detroit, front of mind for Joe Hortiz in his first season as general manager of the Los Angeles Chargers is how to best utilize the team’s No. 5 overall pick, and the negotiation power that comes with that high-value selection.

While the Bolts could stay where they are in the draft order and use the pick to select who they believe to be one of the five best players in this year’s prospect class, Hortiz and head coach Jim Harbaugh have not discounted the opportunity available to them to exchange it for a lucrative selection for a bevy of later picks.

However, Hortiz said Thursday in his pre-draft press conference that the Chargers won’t move down for just any deal, emphasizing that to their eyes it should be an exchange that they just can’t say no to.

“There’s certainly, ‘It’s too good of a deal,’ because of what you’re getting back. They have to make it attractive for us to move away from those players. The whole, ‘It’s a fair trade, it’s a wash,’ I don’t think that’s a trade that we’re interested in,” Hortiz said, via team transcripts. “If we’re going to trade away from great players, there has to be a reason, in terms of value, for us. Certainly, there are going to be more great players in the draft, but it has to make sense to you and it has to make sense to the team that is wanting to come up.”

Adding to the intrigue and the possible value of the pick in his mind is the knowledge that if most or all of the first four picks are used on quarterbacks, as many anticipate, that No. 5 pick becomes even more desirable for teams either trying to get in on the early QB action, or interested in nabbing the best non-QB player in this year’s draft class.

That could make a possible trade package for the Chargers even harder to pass up.

“We believe we have the first pick in the draft. I know there are going to be four picks that go before us, but we believe that. If four quarterbacks go, we believe, strongly, that we have the first pick in the draft,” Hortiz said. “What are teams willing to give us? Obviously, we know it’s the fifth pick and people are going to be trading on that scope. It’s got to be good value for us. Does it have to be ‘blown away?’ What is ‘blown away?’ I don’t know the answer to that.”

As for the Chargers’ plans for making their top selection, whether at No. 5 or elsewhere, Hortiz said that the team would be focusing more on selecting the “best player available” instead of solely going by positional need, noting that even with a role that appears to be secure, you can be “one play away from needing a position.”

“Like I said, we want to add depth,” he said. “If you look at it based on need, you’re never just one player away, ever. I’ve learned that from my predecessors, [Ravens executive vice president] Ozzie Newsome and [Ravens executive vice president/general manager] Eric DeCosta, and I believe that. When you get a chance to add a great player, you add them. That’s how we’re going to approach it.”

The Chargers certainly have a number of options for what to use their picks on going into this year’s draft, after cap space struggles led to the release of Mike Williams and Keenan Allen being traded to the Bears earlier this offseason. NFL Network’s Chad Reuter currently has wide receiver, cornerback, offensive line and running back as positions of need for Los Angeles, though the last of those might have been addressed by this week’s signing of RB J.K. Dobbins.

Decisions on a possible trade could go down to the wire, but no matter what direction Los Angeles goes with its first pick, all will be revealed starting April 25 in Detroit.

BALTIMORE

WR ZAY FLOWERS skates on punishment from NFL Justice after a murky incident of domestic violence in January.  Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com:

– Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers will not be disciplined by the NFL after being involved in a domestic violence investigation earlier this year, the league said in a statement Thursday.

“Following a review, the NFL concluded there was insufficient evidence to support a finding that Zay Flowers engaged in any activity that violated the NFL’s personal conduct policy,” the NFL said. “There will be no action taken by the league and Flowers remains eligible to participate in all team activities.”

This decision comes two months after Baltimore County Police suspended a domestic violence investigation involving Flowers, who was never charged. The alleged incident occurred Jan. 16 in Owings Mills, Maryland. According to a police report, a woman said she was involved in a “violent” domestic incident with an NFL player. She told police the player’s brother pulled a gun on her.

Flowers, 23, set Ravens rookie records last season with 77 receptions and 858 receiving yards. He was the No. 22 pick in the NFL draft a year ago.

HOUSTON

Twelve months ago, could you have envisioned the Texans in line for the NFL season opener?  Although, last year, Detroit pulled off a similar feat:

@OzzyNFL

NFL SCHEDULE NEWS:

Major shift is the Chiefs Week 1 Opponent Odds, via

@FanDuel

 – Texans are now the clear-cut favourite.

Texans -125 🚨

Bengals +350

Ravens +600

Chargers +750

Raiders +1600 

Buccaneers +2500 

Broncos +3500

Saints +6500

BUFFALO

Is this genuine excitement that WR STEFON DIGGS is gone from QB JOSH ALLEN, or is he just putting up a brave front?  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Bills quarterback Josh Allen talked about the departure of wide receiver Stefon Diggs for a good chunk of his Thursday press conference, but Diggs is just one of many veterans who have parted ways with the Bills this offseason.

Those departures came on both sides of the ball and they leave the team without a number of the players who played key roles in their recent run of division titles. It also resulted in a significantly younger roster and Allen said he thinks that can be a positive because there’s a chance to shape them in a way you can’t with older players.

“I don’t think it’s a wrong thing or a bad thing to get younger,” Allen said, via the team’s website. “I think that, as a coaching staff, as a leader, to be able to come in and kind of mold these guys into the team that you want to be, I think there’s a very exciting opportunity.”

Molding a team isn’t an overnight process, but it can’t be a terribly long one if the Bills want to avoid taking a step or two back in the present given the team’s belief that their championship window is wide open.

NEW ENGLAND

Of the top three, the Patriots are the one team that might entertain an offer to trade up.  Mike Reiss of ESPN.com:

New England Patriots director of scouting Eliot Wolf said Thursday that the team is “open for business” to trade the No. 3 pick in next week’s 2024 NFL draft but would be comfortable staying put and selecting a quarterback from what he called a “unique” class.

Wolf described trade discussions with other teams as “ongoing” while adding: “We have some holes we feel like we need to fill in the draft. We’re a draft-and-develop team; the more picks we have, the better.”

Wolf, who has final personnel say in his first year of an increased role with the franchise, acknowledged that the Patriots have yet to receive a trade offer that would motivate them to deal the No. 3 pick.

The Patriots enter next week’s draft with eight total selections, headlined by the No. 3 pick and selections at the top of the second (No. 34) and third (68) rounds. They have single picks in Rounds 4, 5 and 7 and two picks in Round 6.

Wolf, first-year head coach Jerod Mayo and the Patriots’ staff have spent considerable time scouting quarterbacks, attending pro days for USC’s Caleb Williams, LSU’s Jayden Daniels, North Carolina’s Drake Maye and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy. The team subsequently hosted Daniels, Maye and McCarthy on visits at Gillette Stadium, along with Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr.

Wolf said the team isn’t locked into selecting a quarterback, but when asked how comfortable he would be picking one of the top three or four players at the position, he said: “I think we’d be comfortable with it.”

Wolf said hearing from teammates of top quarterbacks, which also includes Oregon’s Bo Nix, has particularly made an impression on him.

“Hearing how impressive they are as teammates, as people, as leaders, I think it’s a unique year. I’d say that’s been impressive with all six of these quarterbacks that are kind of the top guys,” he said.

Of the potential of swinging a trade with the No. 3 pick, Wolf explained how the Patriots consider all scenarios and said conversations have taken place.

“When you’re picking this high, fortunately, those teams that are interested are also doing that, so they’ll reach out earlier than they would when we’re on the clock. That makes it easier in this particular situation,” he said, adding that additional trade conversations have taken place with clubs about acquiring a receiver and players at other positions, which is “definitely something we’d be open to.”

If the Patriots stick at No. 3 and pick a quarterback, Wolf expressed confidence that the team has the infrastructure in place to help him succeed. That includes the signing of veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who could serve as a “positive influence” while also competing against a potential high draft pick.

“We feel good about where we are,” Wolf said. “We feel through free agency, on the offensive side in particular, that we’ve been able to supplement our roster properly so we’re not having to draft for need as much.”

NEW YORK JETS

We admit, we’re a couple of days late with the story on the Jets new uniforms.  Couldn’t really tell they were different to be honest.  Rich Cimini of ESPN.com:

To give themselves a fresh look in 2024, the New York Jets reached into their past.

As part of a rebranding, the Jets unveiled a new uniform and a new logo on Monday. The logo is a modernized version of the one used from 1978 to 1997. The Jets are billing it as a homage to the Sack Exchange era — a reference to the celebrated defensive front four that marked the franchise’s identity from 1979 to the mid-1980s.

“We work for the fans,” Jets owner Woody Johnson said. “They have consistently asked for us to return to our roots, and we heard them. The new uniforms are explicitly designed to look and feel like the New York Jets while refreshing the club’s iconic logo — viewed as our most identifiable mark.”

They’re calling the new look their “Legacy Collection.” It includes three uniform versions — Legacy Green, Legacy White and Legacy Black. The jerseys feature double-striped shoulders and single-stripe pants, the same design the team wore throughout the Sack Exchange era.

While paying homage to the Sack Exchange era, the New York Jets are rebranding their uniforms and logos for the 2024 NFL season. New York Jets/Instagram

The helmet logo features the outline of a jet plane atop “JETS” — the old look from the 1980s. Previously, the logo featured a football and “JETS” — shades of their 1968 Super Bowl team.

The Jets debuted the white pants, white jersey “Legacy Collection” in the 2023 season opener as part of an alternate uniform look, sparking fan interest. Now it will be their permanent look. This is the second time in five years the Jets have changed their primary uniform.

Maybe the new threads will change their mojo. The Jets have gone 13 straight seasons without a playoff appearance, the longest active streak in the NFL.

– – –

GM Joe Douglas reiterates that the Jets are not going to simply cut QB ZACH WILSON.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

While speaking to reporters at the league meetings last month, Jets owner Woody Johnson said that the team will not release quarterback Zach Wilson this offseason if they are unable to find a trading partner for him.

Jets General Manager Joe Douglas referenced those remarks when he spoke to reporters about Wilson at a Friday press conference from the team’s facility. Douglas said that the team is open to making a trade, but that they believe Wilson has value that has to be represented in the return they get in any deal.

“I know you guys talked to Woody about Zach and my thoughts are in line with Woody,” Douglas said, via SNY. “Zach is an asset. At that same time, we’re obviously open to trading Zach. There have been discussions, nothing’s really changed since we talked down in Florida. We’re open to trading him, there’s just no update on that.”

The Jets signed Tyrod Taylor to serve as the primary backup to Aaron Rodgers this season and the prospect of Wilson finding his way back into the lineup at any point is an unappealing one for the Jets’ fanbase, so it will be interesting to see what happens if no trade comes together before the start of training camp.

THIS AND THAT

OFFICIATING CHANGES

Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com with some clarity on the changes in the NFL officiating department:

NFL officiating chief Walt Anderson has stepped aside amid a larger reorganization of the officiating department, the league confirmed Thursday.

Anderson said in a statement that he will move to a new role as an NFL rules analyst and club communications liaison, where he “will focus on communicating with the clubs during the week and with our broadcast partners on gamedays.”

The league did not immediately announce a replacement.

“While I will no longer be making officiating decisions,” Anderson said, “together with a variety of stakeholders I will continue to look for new and better ways to promote excellence in officiating performance. I welcome this challenge and look forward to the opportunity to support the men and women who do such a tremendous job officiating our game at every level.”

Sources have said over the past year that the league favors having former coaches in its officiating leadership group. That includes Perry Fewell, its senior vice president of officiating communications and administration. The NFL also quietly hired longtime assistant coach George Stewart in 2023 to serve as vice president of training and development.

Anderson, who retired as a referee in 2019, initially joined the officiating department as its senior vice president of training and development. Under the initial vision, he was to work alongside two other executives — Fewell and Al Riveron — to lead certain segments of the department. Ultimately, however, Anderson unofficially ascended to the top leadership position.

Anderson’s job shift eliminates a clash with the nepotism rules that prevented the NFL from hiring his son, Derek, as an official last year. Derek Anderson was one of five new game officials whose hirings the NFL confirmed Thursday.

2024 DRAFT

In a draft full of 24-year-olds, is it better to draft someone who is 24 or 21?  Nora Princiotti of The Ringer:

This year’s class is older on average than any between 2017 and 2021, though it’s a little younger than the class of 2022 (another post-pandemic draft); an analysis by NFL reporter Kalyn Kahler found that the average 2022 draft pick was borderline millennial at 24.11 years old.

That age—24—is about when scouts and general managers start to consider a prospect’s, um, experience to be something of a red flag. In general, NFL teams prefer younger players over older ones because they assume they’ll enter the league with more room to develop. Before the pandemic, draft picks had been trending younger, particularly those taken in the higher rounds. An analysis by FiveThirtyEight in 2018 showed that, from 2000 to 2018, the average age of a first-round draft pick fell almost a full year, from 22.6 to 21.7. The trend was tied to the advent of the rookie wage scale in 2012, which incentivized top college players to declare for the NFL draft as underclassmen; the sooner they got to the league, the sooner they could sign their second contracts, where the real money gets made. Plus, teams got smarter about things like growth curves through access to better data. The most analytically inclined teams also tend to be the ones drafting the youngest players—the Browns, for example, have almost always drafted young under current general manager Andrew Berry. They have had the lowest average draft pick age in the league during his tenure: 28 of 31 players drafted by Berry were 23 or younger—and usually 22 or younger in the early rounds.

“It’s an interesting dynamic,” said Adofo-Mensah, who worked in the Cleveland front office from 2020-21. “You’re talking about a time in a young man’s life where they’re really rapidly going up their growth curve, strength and athleticism. We know the athletic peak happens, and it doesn’t happen at 20.”

With hundreds of players on draft boards next week, teams will still be able to exercise their preferences for young talent in the early rounds this year. Where general managers worry that an older class could impact their roster is in the later rounds. Younger players become especially coveted in a draft where they are scarce, so more of them figure to be gone by day three.

“I think it has really hampered the depth of the draft, specifically when you get to that last day and then certainly undrafted free agency,” said Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort.

That said, because teams see this trend as temporary, as the players impacted by the COVID-19 season cycle through their draft years, the modus operandi around the league is basically just to deal with it until it’s over. If an older draft class really is thinner, meaning fewer seventh-rounders and UDFAs who make rosters in September, the general attitude seems to be: Well, so be it.

“I think after we get through this COVID group of kids that come through, it’ll probably really come back to normal a little bit as far as the normal ages of kids coming out,” Raiders general manager Tom Telesco said in Indianapolis. “Typically as a scouting staff, we always say we’d like a younger player because the guy has a chance to develop, maybe has a little bit more ceiling. Is that true or not? I’m not really sure. But I do know that we’re going to have some players coming in the league that have good experience and may be ready to play a little bit earlier than maybe in times past.”

The NFL’s inclination to draft young is generally backed up by evidence. The same FiveThirtyEight analysis that showed first-round picks were getting younger through the 2010s used Pro Football Reference’s career approximate value stat to look at the performances over time of players drafted in different age brackets. It found that players who started young went on to have better careers. Players drafted at 20 to 21 were only slightly more productive than 22-year-olds, but once players entered the league at 23, the gap widened quickly.

A notable feature of that analysis was that it also found that the same dynamic existed for quarterbacks. Because playing QB is, generally, less physically demanding but more mentally demanding than other positions, college experience is often held up as more meaningful for passers than it is for other players. Multiple executives at the combine brought up that they consider the age dynamics for quarterbacks to be different relative to other positions, and the oldest players in any given draft class are often QBs. The oldest player ever selected in the NFL draft was quarterback Chris Weinke, who was 28 years and 264 days old when the Panthers selected the Heisman Trophy winner out of Florida State in 2000. The oldest player to go in the first round was also a quarterback: Brandon Weeden was 28 years and 195 days old when he was drafted 22nd by the Browns in 2012. (Both Weinke and Weeden played minor league baseball before playing college football.)

And yet, the study found that the improvement in results for quarterbacks drafted at younger ages was actually more dramatic than it was at other positions. NFL teams who drafted quarterbacks aged 21 or younger got significantly more out of them over the course of their careers than they did from quarterbacks drafted 22 or older. In the context of this year’s QB class, that would be good news for Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy, both 21, but bad news for Jayden Daniels (23), Michael Penix Jr. (24 in May), and Bo Nix (24).

Still, evaluators at least talk about quarterbacks as if they believe age can be an asset. Adofo-Mensah, whose team is clearly in the market for a quarterback in this draft, mentioned he developed his understanding of age curves in Cleveland, which would imply an interest in drafting young. And yet even he called quarterback “one position I feel like it might be a little different.”

“We don’t have a minor league,” Adofo-Mensah said. “And those extra years are maybe a couple of minor league years, depending on where they’re playing, the system, how relatable that is to our game. It’s exciting to talk about. There’s uncertainty. There’s ups, downs, lefts, rights. That’s what makes this hard, and it’s fun.”

Perhaps that talk is cheap—particularly if the Vikings’ rumored infatuation with McCarthy is accurate. Or perhaps these NFL executives are simply hopeful for a few more years of draft picks who remember the Walkman.

– – –

A Mock Draft from Dave Pass of NFL.com:

With the finish line of the pre-draft buildup coming into view, here’s my final projection for how Round 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft (April 25-27 in Detroit) will play out.

1  Chicago Bears  (via CAR)

Caleb Williams                                    USC · QB · Junior

There’s no suspense here. All signs point to the Bears picking Williams, who will be a king in Chicago if he comes anywhere close to living up to the hype.

2  Washington Commanders

Jayden Daniels                                        LSU · QB · Senior

The buzz continues to build in the Heisman Trophy winner’s favor at No. 2, and don’t be surprised if the Commanders aggressively move to upgrade Daniels’ supporting cast via the draft (more on that in a bit).

3  New England Patriots

Drake Maye                                             North Carolina · QB · Sophomore (RS)

Barring a jaw-dropping trade offer they can’t refuse, the Patriots appear likely to stick and pick the top remaining quarterback on their board. It might take some time for New England to get back to its winning ways, but Maye has the tools to develop into the franchise passer the team badly needs.

4  Arizona Cardinals

Marvin Harrison Jr.                               Ohio State · WR · Junior

GM Monti Ossenfort is not afraid to work the phones and move up or down the board. He proved that in his first draft on the job. If a team wants to vault to No. 4 for a quarterback, I’m sure he’ll be all ears. In this scenario, he stays put and gives Kyler Murray a WR1.

5  Minnesota Vikings PROJECTED TRADE WITH LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

J.J. McCarthy                                      Michigan · QB · Junior

It looks like McCarthy is nearly a lock to go somewhere between picks 3 and 11. The Vikings could sit back and wait for him at No. 11, but that seems like a huge risk to take if they want to get one of the top four quarterbacks off the board. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah packages his two first-rounders to go get the national title winner, who lands in the perfect place.

6  New York Giants

Malik Nabers                                            LSU · WR · Junior

The Giants elect to run it back with Daniel Jones as the QB1, but they finally find him a lifeline in the form of a true No. 1 receiver. Some rate Nabers as the top pass catcher in this year’s draft.

7  Tennessee Titans

Joe Alt                                                         Notre Dame · OT · Junior

I’m not getting “foregone conclusion” vibes in this draft, beyond Caleb Williams going to the Bears, but the Titans filling their massive void at left tackle with the seventh pick? That almost feels like too good of a fit to be true.

8  Atlanta Falcons

Dallas Turner                                             Alabama · Edge · Junior

No team has a lower QB pressure rate than the Falcons — at 23.7 percent — since 2016 (the dawn of the Next Gen Stats era). GM Terry Fontenot adds some much-needed explosiveness to Raheem Morris’ defense.

9  Chicago Bears

Rome Odunze                                             Washington · WR · Senior

GM Ryan Poles goes all-in on providing his rookie quarterback with an all-star cast at receiver. Trading down could be appealing, but with only a year remaining on soon-to-be 32-year-old Keenan Allen’s contract, Odunze is too promising to pass up.

10  New York Jets

Brock Bowers                                         Georgia · TE · Junior

The Jets put themselves in position to take the best player available with their moves to address the offensive line earlier this offseason. Bowers can be the Robin to Garrett Wilson’s Batman in Gotham.

11  Los Angeles Chargers PROJECTED TRADE WITH MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Taliese Fuaga                                         Oregon State · OT · Senior

In Jim Harbaugh’s world, the fearsome Fuaga might as well be the top player in the draft (other than his former QB, of course). Jim trades down and still feels like he won the lottery by landing a road-grading right tackle.

12  Denver Broncos

Quinyon Mitchell                                      Toledo · CB · Senior

The Broncos decide to wait to make their move for a quarterback. They would probably love to trade down from this spot and add some draft capital, but if they can’t find a partner, pairing Mitchell with Pat Surtain II in the pursuit of slowing down division foe Patrick Mahomes figures to be an attractive option.

13  Las Vegas Raiders

Michael Penix Jr.                                        Washington · QB · Senior

Sensing that the Seahawks could be eyeing a reunion between Penix and his UW offensive coordinator (Ryan Grubb, who is now Seattle’s OC) at No. 16, the Raiders decide they need to strike for their quarterback.

14  New Orleans Saints

JC Latham                                                    Alabama · OT · Junior

New Orleans has a glaring need at offensive tackle, given Trevor Penning’s struggles and Ryan Ramczyk’s health. There’s no one more powerful at the position in this year’s draft than Latham.

15  Indianapolis Colts

Terrion Arnold                                              Alabama · CB · Sophomore (RS)

Trading up for an offensive weapon will be tempting as the Colts look to build around Anthony Richardson, but the price could be too rich for Chris Ballard’s taste. Arnold should eventually become the CB1 in Indy.

16  Seattle Seahawks

Troy Fautanu                                                Washington · OL · Senior

With Penix no longer an option, the ‘Hawks take the best Washington player still available. Fautanu can play anywhere on the line, but he figures to start out on the interior under new head coach Mike Macdonald.

17  Washington Commanders    PROJECTED TRADE WITH JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Olumuyiwa Fashanu                                     Penn State · OT · Junior (RS)

As NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah recently suggested, first-year GM Adam Peters could be willing to take a big swing to help protect his new quarterback. He gives up a pair of second-rounders (Nos. 36 and 40) to land Fashanu, who returns to his old stomping grounds in D.C. With the top two corners getting snatched up, the Jaguars are willing to move down.

18  Cincinnati Bengals

Amarius Mims                                             Georgia · OT · Junior

The Bengals like having large human beings at tackle to protect Joe Burrow (SEE: Orlando Brown, 6-foot-8, 345 pounds; Trent Brown, 6-8, 355). With Brown on a one-year deal, Cincinnati prepares for the future at right tackle by adding, you guessed it, a 6-8, 340-pounder in Mims.

19  Los Angeles Rams

Byron Murphy II                                              Texas · DT · Junior

No man will replace Aaron Donald on his own, but Murphy and Kobie Turner would combine to give the Rams a formidable duo up the middle. Thing is, GM Les Snead might have to trade up to get the buzzworthy prospect.

20  Pittsburgh Steelers

Graham Barton                                                  Duke · C · Senior

Barton played mostly left tackle for the Blue Devils, but he can fill Pittsburgh’s void in the pivot from Day 1. This could be the Steelers’ next great center.

21  Miami Dolphins

Jared Verse                                                        Florida State · Edge · Senior

Landing Verse at No. 21 could be one of the draft’s biggest steals. With Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb recovering from injuries and Andrew Van Ginkel departing this offseason, the Dolphins are thrilled to find a safe edge rusher with big-time power still waiting to hear his name called.

22  Philadelphia Eagles

Laiatu Latu                                                         UCLA · Edge · Senior

I won’t be surprised at all if Latu goes much higher than 22nd. It might just depend on which teams are comfortable with their medical evaluations of him. A neck injury suffered during Latu’s time at Washington once put the edge menace’s career in doubt, but he was cleared to play at UCLA and absolutely flourished. GM Howie Roseman sees too much value to pass up last season’s FBS leader in tackles for loss (21.5).

23  Los Angeles Chargers PROJECTED TRADE WITH MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Brian Thomas Jr.                                                 LSU · WR · Junior

I’m piggybacking my colleague Gennaro Filice’s recent mock here (the man knows his stuff). This scenario is the best of both worlds for the Chargers. They get to fulfill Jim Harbaugh’s desire for a rugged offensive lineman with their first pick, and then they address their most glaring need with a receiver who could easily outperform his draft slotting.

24  Dallas Cowboys

Tyler Guyton                                                       Oklahoma · OT · Junior (RS)

Longtime offensive line coach Mike Solari has a new pupil to mold. Guyton isn’t the most experienced prospect, but he’s dripping with potential. If he can play with more strength, he should become a quality starter at one of the tackle spots in Dallas.

25 Jacksonville Jaguars  PROJECTED TRADE WITH GREEN BAY PACKERS

Cooper DeJean                                                     Iowa · DB · Junior

After trading down in a deal with the Commanders that netted them picks 36 and 40, the Jaguars use one of the picks acquired in that deal (No. 40) and their original second-rounder (No. 48) to get the corner they need in DeJean. So, despite moving back, Jacksonville still has a chance to land a playmaking DB and another potential starter before the first 40 picks are made. As for the Packers, they can control the board on Day 2 with four second-round picks (Nos. 40, 41, 48 and 58) and two third-rounders (Nos. 88 and 91).

26  Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Chop Robinson                                                       Penn State · Edge · Junior

The pass rusher formerly known as “Pork Chop” provides the Bucs with juice off the edge. His production doesn’t jump off the page (11.5 sacks in three seasons), but his athleticism is eye-opening. He can be the long-term replacement for Shaquil Barrett.

27  Arizona Cardinals (via HOU)

Nate Wiggins                                                         Clemson · CB · Junior

Arizona hasn’t picked a cornerback in first round since striking gold with the selection of Patrick Peterson in 2011. It’s time to make that kind of investment in the position again. Wiggins is not a banger against the run, but he’s going to be a pest in coverage.

28  Buffalo Bills

Xavier Worthy                                                      Texas · WR · Junior

The Bills could make an aggressive move up the board to find a new weapon for Josh Allen after parting with Stefon Diggs. If they stay put, snagging the 40-yard dash king to take the top off defenses and catch Allen’s rockets would be exhilarating.

29  Detroit Lions

Kool-Aid McKinstry                                           Alabama · CB · Junior

I had Kool-Aid going to Detroit in my first mock and I’m sticking with him here. The release of Cameron Sutton left the Lions thin at cornerback once again.

30  Baltimore Ravens

Mike Sainristil                                                   Michigan · DB · Senior

Surprise! Yes, I know this is higher than most expect Sainristil to go. Do the Ravens care? Heck no. They’ve picked a Michigan player in three of the last four drafts, and you know Jim Harbaugh has already given a glowing review to his brother when it comes to the nickel corner’s abilities.

31 San Francisco 49ers

Jordan Morgan                                               Arizona · OT · Senior

The Niners have struggled to find reliable offensive line help in the draft since selecting Mike McGlinchey in the first round six years ago. Morgan gets an opportunity to compete for the right tackle job and learn from one of the OT greats, Trent Williams.

32  Kansas City Chiefs

Adonai Mitchell                                              Texas · WR · Junior

Getting Hollywood Brown was nice, but the Chiefs can’t be done adding pieces for Patrick Mahomes at receiver after the issues they had at the position last season, right? Andy Reid might be the perfect coach to maximize Mitchell’s WR1 potential.