The Daily Briefing Friday, April 26, 2024
THE DAILY BRIEFING
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The draft plodded along for the first seven picks on Thursday night, the picks reeling off as if from a consensus Mock Draft from months ago. The closest thing to excitement was the Chargers picking T JOHN ALT over T JC LATHAM at 5. Then Atlanta struck at 8 with the selection of QB MICHAEL PENIX, Jr. on the heels of throwing $100 million guaranteed to QB KIRK COUSINS in March… – – – The QBs went off the board between 8 and 13. QB JJ McCARTHY (9 to Minnesota) rose into the first round during the pre-draft process. Penix and QB BO NIX (Denver at 13) rose on draft day.
Cody Benjamin of CBSSports.com recently did a review of all first round QBs in the last 15 years, giving the picks rankings. Let’s take a look at those that went 6 to 15.
2021 11 Justin Fields Bears Mixed result 2021 15 Mac Jones Patriots Miss 2020 6 Justin Herbert Chargers Solid result 2019 6 Daniel Jones Giants Mixed result 2019 15 Dwayne Haskins Washington Miss 2018 7 Josh Allen Bills Home run 2018 10 Josh Rosen Cardinals Miss 2017 10 Deshaun Watson Texans Mixed result 2017 12 Patrick Mahomes Chiefs Home run 2012 8 Ryan Tannehill Dolphins Miss 2011 8 Jake Locker Titans Miss 2011 10 Blaine Gabbert Jaguars Miss 2011 12 Christian Ponder Vikings Miss
So, 13 picks – 2 home runs and 1 sold result.
Benjamin’s a little harsh on Tannehill here.
Jori Epstein of YahooSports.com on the rush of QB selections:
Pre-draft discourse had not heavily centered on the Falcons spending the eighth overall pick on a quarterback. Sure, Atlanta needed help this offseason. But that’s what the franchise seemed to accomplish in signing veteran Kirk Cousins to a free-agency deal that included $100 million guaranteed.
So when the Falcons unleashed their surprise, teams began scrambling.
Behold, not only were four quarterbacks drafted in the top eight picks for the first time in NFL history (since the modern draft began in 1967), but also five were taken in the top 10 and six taken in the top 12 for the first time.
“I believe it’s as first as it’s ever happened,” Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell said. “And I can see why. Really talented group of quarterbacks. Lot of guys you can really see a future building side by side with them.
“This is kind of one of one as far as quarterbacks go.”
Or is it?
How Raiders were ultimately frozen out a first-round QB The 2024 NFL Draft offered a spectacular confluence of events. The supply was deep at quarterback; the demand volume was high from teams; and coaches appear to be as confident as ever that they can mold quarterbacks into NFL winners.
So the Chicago Bears, Washington Commanders and New England Patriots ditched Justin Fields, Sam Howell and Mac Jones, respectively before their rookie contracts expired.
With the first three picks of Thursday’s draft, the Bears selected USC’s Caleb Williams, the Commanders selected LSU’s Jayden Daniels and the Patriots selected UNC’s Drake Maye.
North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye, left, celebrates with NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell after being chosen by the New England Patriots with the third overall pick during the first round of the NFL football draft, Thursday, April 25, 2024, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson) When the Patriots drafted Drake Maye, that made three quarterbacks off the board with the first three picks in Thursday’s NFL Draft on Thursday in Detroit. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson) New England received consistent trade offers before their selection, director of college scouting Eliot Wolf confirmed.
“We had some conversations with other teams, but ultimately we felt like Drake was the player that we wanted and we had the opportunity to get him,” Wolf said.
Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo insisted Maye would compete rather than be handed the role, but the chance to chase his ceiling was too alluring to pass up.
The Vikings, Broncos and Raiders followed these developments with steady heart rates.
Soon after, they saw a spike.
Because the Falcons, it appeared, felt similarly about Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. Penix was widely expected to be the fifth or sixth quarterback off the board, and the Raiders were a popular guess for a selection at No. 13, or he could go later in the first round.
Yahoo Sports’ Charles McDonald and Nate Tice did not include Penix as a first-round pick in their final mock draft. The oft-injured college player drew mixed reviews as scouts tried to sort through how translatable his late-career success was.
But the Falcons liked what they saw and didn’t want to miss a chance to use a top-10 pick they hope not to have again soon.
“These guys go off the board pretty quickly, and we thought it would be important for us to address our future quarterback right now while we’re picking this [early],” head coach Raheem Morris said. “We don’t want to be back in this position again.”
Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot added: “We won’t be.”
Cue stress across the NFL and the Vikings moving up from 11 to 10 to draft J.J. McCarthy. Talent evaluators understood that the Falcons’ draft left seven quarterback-seeking teams for six prospects that could be considered first-rounders.
Sometimes, analytics aren’t the answer.
“I’m a spreadsheet-calculator guy myself but sometimes you’ve got to step out from there,” Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said. “Take your Clark Kent glasses off and just have a championship mindset and swing for a great player.”
The Broncos agreed. With only Oregon’s Bo Nix remaining in the first round crop (depending whom you ask) and their division-rival Raiders in need, Payton and general manager George Paton didn’t want to risk getting cute.
Glasses off. Cape on.
“We considered moving back but once Penix went; it got a little stressful there at the end,” Paton said. “We just didn’t want to overthink this: This was our guy. We were going to take our guy.
“We would have been sick if we lost him for a couple fifth-round picks.”
Payton knew the feeling.
Were Payton and Co. overreacting to the Patrick Mahomes Effect? Seven years have passed but Payton’s disappointment still hangs heavy. The New Orleans Saints held the 11th overall pick of the 2017 draft and Mitchell Trubisky, at second overall, was the only quarterback selected in the top nine.
Payton merely needed to survive one spot before he was on the board. Then the Chiefs dealt the Buffalo Bills two firsts and a third to move up from the 27th pick to the 10th. They nabbed Payton’s gem.
He’s well aware of what Patrick Mahomes has done since.
“When the Chiefs selected Patrick and you go back and tune into everything that was said, [it was] ‘Well they could have gotten him later,’” Payton said. “No they couldn’t have. No they couldn’t have.”
So the Broncos wonder: Could they have drafted Nix later than 12?
Could the Vikings have landed McCarthy later than 10?
Could the Falcons have landed Penix later than eight (OK, probably), or the Patriots accepted a trade offer and still clung to Maye?
The immediate analysis could fairly knock any of these teams for allocating such prime capital to players whom they cannot guarantee will translate to the NFL of a famously inexact science.
But an NFL team approaching the draft solely through analytics is forgetting the emotion that annually dictates a series of positions. Teams fall in love with certain prospects as they fall in love with the opportunity to upgrade at a specific position. When a position begins to go off the board, a run often follows to comfort the panicked teams that follow.
Will all, or even most of the six quarterbacks go on to successful NFL careers? History tells us they will not. Could a team that reached for a prospect be the one who ultimately strikes gold? History tells us they can.
Thursday night, NFL teams raced each other to secure the answer to not only the most influential position in football but also the salary-cap asset most exploitable if a player hits during his rookie contract.
The flurry of Falcons-induced possibilities triggered a “range of emotions,” O’Connell said.
Teams responded accordingly.
“We all understand managing the draft but man, let’s also worry about what it’s going to look like 3-4 years from now, when this class will be judged,” Payton said. “Let’s make sure we get the right guy there.”
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NFC NORTH |
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CHICAGO In the eyes of Field Yates of ESPN.com, the Bears made the best pick of Round 1 – and it wasn’t QB CALEB WILLIAMS:
Yates: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington to the Bears at No. 9. Landing Odunze here is a grand slam for the Bears when considering the impact he can have on quarterback Caleb Williams — whom Chicago took at No. 1 — and the value of the selection relative to my board. I had Odunze rated sixth overall, and there was a case for him to be even higher. His 24 contested catches last season tied for the FBS lead, and Williams will build an immediate trust in throwing it his way regardless whether he’s truly open.
More Bears euphoria among a panel (Kalyn Kahler, Zak Keefer and Dan Pompei) at The Athletic (albeit a word of caution from Pompei):
Kahler: A favorite argument my dad and I have is whether Jim McMahon was a franchise quarterback … which shows how bleak it’s been for Bears quarterbacks. That being said, this draft could not have gone better for the Bears. They got their quarterback, which is no surprise since they had decided on Williams long ago and barely wasted time with any other quarterbacks in this process, but landing Rome Odunze — a close third to Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers in the receiver rankings — was more of a surprise. General manager Ryan Poles has done major surgery on this roster since he took over two years ago, and now that they have Williams and another talented, young weapon on offense, this rebuild is in the final phase. It’s go-time.
Keefer: For a long-tortured franchise, this felt like a perfect night. This was the Bears cashing in after last year’s trade with the Panthers, which handed Poles a golden opportunity to land the type of quarterback this team’s been chasing for decades. Beyond grabbing Williams at the top, Poles was able to get one of the draft’s top receivers in Odunze, who’ll offer an immediate spark to Chicago’s offense and have the chance to grow with Williams. It’s hard to see this being anything but a banner evening for Chicago’s short- and long-term future, and in time, we might look back on this night as the one that changed the way we look at the Bears.
Pompei: The Bears added arguably the highest-regarded player at any position and the player who could end up as the best receiver. Williams has the most potential of any quarterback. His talent is otherworldly. There also is a bust factor with him, however, and it will be interesting to see how he responds to the pressure and adversity that he will undoubtedly encounter as the quarterback of the Bears. Odunze appears to be more of a sure thing. He might not have the ceiling of the two receivers chosen ahead of him, but he has a higher floor. It will be a stunner if he’s a bust. Williams and Odunze should bring out the best in one another.
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DETROIT We thought the Lions would trade up for a cornerback to get ahead of the Packers. But DB COOPER DeJEAN, who is still available, was not that player. Jordan Reid ofESPN.com says Alabama CB TERRION ARNOLD was worth going up for:
Reid: How about Alabama cornerback Terrion Arnold falling to No. 24? He was my 11th-ranked player. I was really surprised to see teams such as the Raiders and Colts pass on him. With his versatility in being able to play inside or outside, he will provide instant value for the Lions, who needed another starting corner. I liked them being aggressive in trading up ahead of the Packers to secure this talented prospect.
Dan Pompei of The Athletic seconds the emotion:
Pompei: The Lions came into the draft with the 29th pick and, after a trade up, ended up with the player many rated as the best cornerback. Terrion Arnold fills the Lions’ biggest hole and fits on multiple fronts. They need a player who can make big plays, and Arnold did that at Alabama. He also has the kind of personality/makeup that Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes have prioritized. He should fit in well with a defense that should improve in 2024 and should feel at home with fellow former Alabama teammates Brian Branch, Jahmyr Gibbs and Jameson Williams.
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MINNESOTA Last year, the Texans ascended after adding a rookie QB and a pass rusher in the first round. This year, the Vikings did that – although with picks 10 & 17, not 2 & 3 like the Texans. Mel Kiper, Jr. gives it a big thumbs up:
Minnesota Vikings The picks: QB J.J. McCarthy (No. 10) and OLB Dallas Turner (No. 17) All along, McCarthy was linked to the Vikings. And all along, we thought they might have to give up their other first-round pick — No. 23 — to get him. Instead, though, they patiently waited. They traded up one spot with the Jets, got their guy and kept the No. 23 pick. That’s a huge win.
McCarthy, who finished No. 15 in my rankings, is going to a great spot. Coach Kevin O’Connell and the Vikings will put him in position to succeed. Plus, he’s going to be throwing passes to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. This is a great fit for a young signal-caller.
Minnesota was able to use that pick at 23 to move up six spots to land Turner, my top-ranked edge rusher and the No. 9 player on my Big Board. While the franchise had to give up quite a bit — it also surrendered No. 167 and 2025 third- and fourth-rounders — Turner is a great player who fills a position of need. Like the Bears, the Vikings landed two players in my top 15. This is a really solid haul.
Meanwhile, Jordan Reid of ESPN.com thinks McCarthy doesn’t see the field until 2025 as he has the Vikings as the best landing spot for any QB:
Reid: J.J. McCarthy to the Vikings at No. 10. I think McCarthy really needed to go to a team that could slow-play his development, and in that sense, he couldn’t have landed in a better spot. With Sam Darnold able to start next season, Minnesota will be able to stay patient with its QB of the future. And the Vikings already have a full arsenal of playmakers to help McCarthy develop once he’s ready to take over as the full-time starter.
But Field Yates says he will be good to go this season:
Yates: McCarthy will become an instant starter in Minnesota, and the Vikings will finish with a winning record. Williams might be the rookie quarterback in the best situation, but McCarthy is also in a very good spot. With arguably the best receiver in the league to throw to in Justin Jefferson and a collection of very good skill players beyond that, McCarthy should post big-time numbers right away. And he’ll be well protected with a standout tackle duo.
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NFC EAST |
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PHILADELPHIA Kalyn Kahler of The Athletic with praise for the Eagles’ pick:
Kahler: The Eagles and cornerback Quinyon Mitchell. It wasn’t a secret that Philadelphia was going to grab a cornerback in the first round, and they got the best one without having to move up. The Eagles’ secondary was in bad shape last year, and Mitchell will fit in well in Vic Fangio’s defense. He led the FBS with 37 passes defensed over the last two seasons.
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NFC SOUTH |
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ATLANTA Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com with the explanation offered for the stunning pick of QB MICHAEL PENIX, Jr. on the heels of the signing of QB KIRK COUSINS.
The Falcons selected University of Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth overall pick only six weeks after signing Kirk Cousins to a four-year deal worth up to $180 million.
The move took everyone, including Cousins, by surprise.
“Kirk Cousins is our quarterback,” General Manager Terry Fontenot said, via video from the team. “We’re very excited about Kirk. We’re very excited about this team. Michael Penix is . . . we’re talking about the future. You look at the future. You look at the big picture. We are very excited about that quarterback room, and again, Kirk is our quarterback. But adding Michael Penix is thinking about the future.”
The Falcons had three starting quarterbacks the past two seasons as they attempted to replace Matt Ryan. They now not only have replaced him but have a succession plan for Cousins, who turns 36 in August.
The Falcons believe that with Cousins as their quarterback for at least the next two years and Penix for the future that they are well positioned for long-term success.
“It’s pretty simple for us: When you get Kirk Cousins, and you talk about short-term winning and talk about winning right now, which we know we will be in a position to do, we won’t have the ability to be picking this high again with the guy that we got,” coach Raheem Morris said. “We were lucky enough to watch Matt Ryan play 14 years . . . with the Atlanta Falcons. At some point, you’ve got to find a way to have that succession plan in place. It just so happened it presented itself tonight.”
With Cousins due $100 million the next two years, the Falcons plan is for Penix to sit, watch and learn. It’s the same thing the Packers did with Jordan Love behind Aaron Rodgers.
“We’re very excited about where Kirk is,” Fontenot said. “We feel very confident in him and everything he’s going to do for us. Again, we’re thinking more long-term with this. We’re very, very excited about Kirk. That has not changed. This is thinking about the future.”
So Cousins is on a two-year clock and the Falcons will play without the benefit of any contributions from the number 8 pick of the draft – that’s the plan.
Betsy Reed of The Guardian with the Cousins reaction and a good point that Penix is old and thought to be ready to play:
Mike McCarthy, Cousins’ agent, said the quarterback was ‘surprised’ by the selection. “Yes, it was a big surprise,” McCarthy told NFL Network. “We had no idea this was coming. The truth is the whole league had no idea this was coming. We got no heads up. Kirk got a call from the Falcons when they were on the clock. That was the first we heard. It never came up in any conversation.”
Penix is widely considered to be the most pro-ready of any of this year’s quarterback prospects. If the Falcons were to pick a quarterback, it was expected they would pick either JJ McCarthy or Drake Maye, developmental prospects who would sit behind Cousins for a couple of seasons.
There was one media person who heard buzz on Penix. Matt Miller of ESPN.comreveals which colleague it was:
Miller: In a conversation with our own Jeremy Fowler earlier this week, he suggested there was buzz that the Falcons liked Penix, but I brushed it off as a smokescreen. Jeremy was right! Sometimes it’s the intel we hear and don’t buy that becomes the hindsight pick you wish you’d used. Hat tip to Fowler for this one.
This from Mel Kiper, Jr – who is stunned that the Falcons passed up whoever they thought was the best defender on their board:
Atlanta Falcons The pick: QB Michael Penix Jr. (No. 8) This is a shocking pick. The Falcons just gave free agent Kirk Cousins $100 million guaranteed in March. They’re locked in to the veteran for at least two seasons. And they reached for a quarterback who turns 24 years old next month? I don’t get it. The reality is Penix is No. 24 overall on my Big Board, and I had him rated a tier behind J.J. McCarthy, who was still on the board.
The other part of this is Atlanta has a huge need on defense, and it passed up the opportunity to take the first defender in the class. The Falcons ranked last in the league in pass rush win rate (30.9%) and 29th in takeaways (16). They went 7-10 last season in large part because of their porous defense. Edge rusher Dallas Turner or defensive tackle Byron Murphy II would have been huge upgrades on their depth chart.
The Falcons addressing their defense would have helped them compete for the NFC South title, but instead they took a quarterback who will sit behind Cousins and wait his turn. I understand that if they wanted Penix, they probably had to take him before the Raiders at No. 13, but this is a tough one to stomach this early.
Mina Kimes of ESPN.com piles on:
ESPN’s Mina Kimes ripped Atlanta’s decision of drafting Penix in Friday morning’s edition of First Take, saying it made little sense for the franchise or the player.
“If you think you’re going to be good, which is why you pay Kirk Cousins $100 million guaranteed, you’re doing your team a disservice by not making your team better so that you can compete now,” Kimes began. “Offensively, they’re set. Defensively, they haven’t had a solid pass rushing option since frankly, John Abraham. …In this draft, you have an opportunity to either take the best edge rusher available or trade down and take multiple shots on goal. They did neither of those things.”
Kimes doesn’t believe that Atlanta did right by Penix with the decision, either.
“In Penix, they get a quarterback who is not a developmental prospect,” Kimes continued. “[The Falcons] mentioned the Jordan Love model. Jordan Love was 21 when the Packers took him. Michael Penix is about to turn 24 years old. …Maybe he sits for a couple years. If he doesn’t, something has gone horribly wrong in the Kirk Cousins contract, which is a huge waste, by the way, he’s going to be 26 years old.
“So you will have wasted most of his rookie contract, it’s a quarterback who should have probably played right away, and the track record of quarterbacks who do start at that age in the NFL for the first time…is not good. …It just doesn’t add up. It doesn’t add up for the team or the player. I wish he had landed somewhere else because I don’t think this was a good destination for Penix either.”
With no current help drafted, Atlanta’s odds of winning this year’s Super Bowl went down from +2200 to +2400.
Ben Solak of The Athletic sums it up:
It’s always smart to have a long-term plan at quarterback. When your starting quarterback will be 36 this season and is coming off a major Achilles injury, you need a succession plan in place. From that perspective, it made a lot of sense for the Falcons to draft a quarterback this year. But drafting a 24-year-old quarterback who has a long track record of significant knee injuries with a top-10 pick just months after giving that 36-year-old QB a four-year, $180 million deal will require further explanation.
By the sound of it, Kirk Cousins may be joining the rest of us in our search for answers from general manager Terry Fontenot. According to multiple reports—including from NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah, who heard directly from Cousins’s agent—the Falcons told their new starting quarterback they’d be drafting his replacement … just before the pick was announced.
That’s one way to sour a relationship with a player before it starts. One would assume that in the process of recruiting Cousins in free agency, Atlanta sold Cousins on the idea of contending now and making moves that would help the team do that. No matter how the Falcons want to frame the Michael Penix Jr. pick, that’s not what this is. Cousins’s salary is guaranteed for the next two seasons, and if he stays healthy, Penix might not see the field until 2026—at the earliest.
Cousins isn’t the only loser here. Penix played a lot of football in school—starting 45 games over six years. So if any quarterback in this class can afford to miss out on those live reps that a quarterback can get only in games, it’s Penix. But this is a less-than-ideal start to his career. If he develops into a long-term starter, he’ll need to get more comfortable navigating pressure in a tight pocket and throwing into tight windows over the field. It’s hard to replicate those plays in practice. Even if sitting behind Cousins doesn’t derail Penix’s development, it will almost certainly slow it.
And even if you ignore the awkward dynamic at play here with Cousins, this is still a shocking pick by Atlanta. The betting odds had Penix as a borderline first-round pick, and most draft pundits agreed. Penix turns 24 in two weeks—he’s just a few months younger than former Falcons QB Desmond Ridder—and he had torn two ACLs and suffered an injury to his throwing shoulder while in college. That’s not the profile of a player who typically gets picked in the first round. I’m not sure we’ve ever seen a player like this taken in the top 10.
With the first seven picks used on offensive players, the Falcons, a team in desperate need of young defensive talent, had their entire defensive board to choose from. There were dynamic edge defenders in Dallas Turner and Laiatu Latu and lockdown cornerbacks in Quinyon Mitchell and Terrion Arnold right there. Instead, they did this. If it ever seems like the Falcons are in a good spot, just know some weird shit is about to go down.
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CAROLINA Oh, my. Panthers owner David Tepper just can’t seem to learn. Mike Florio ofProFootballTalk.com:
The good news, if there is any, is that no drinks were thrown.
Panthers owner David Tepper, who has combined a hot temper with thin skin, stayed true to form on Thursday. Via Alex Zietlow of the Charlotte Observer, Tepper saw a sign outside a Charlotte bar that said: “Please Let The Coach & GM Pick This Year.”
So Tepper went inside to ask about the sign.
Matt Wohlfarth, owner of the bar, was gone by the time Tepper arrived.
“It sounded a bit more on the joking side,” Wohlfarth said. “But also a bit mad. Otherwise he would’ve stopped in and had a drink.”
Here’s the security video of the incident. He removes the hat of one of the workers, for reasons that aren’t apparent. He can be heard asking about the sign. Within a minute, he’s gone.
Wolfarth explained the reason for his decision to send a message that was received.
“It’s just, you gotta stay in your lane,” Wohlfarth said. “This is not really an attack on anyone or anything. This is me expressing frustration because, believe it or not, I actually lose more of my income when the Panthers lose than he does.”
One word keeps coming to mind when watching the video. Why? Tepper got off with a wrist slap after throwing a drink on fans in Jacksonville. Did he learn nothing from that?
Apparently not. That’s what happens when the punishment is basically pocket change.
Still, if Tepper keeps throwing drinks and/or taking people’s hats off their heads and/or otherwise failing to resist the temptation to react to any actual or perceived insult, the price will inevitably go up.
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NFC WEST |
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LOS ANGELES RAMS QB MATTHEW STAFFORD is looking for a guarantee. Michael David Smith ofProFootballTalk.com:
Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford’s $31 million base salary this season is guaranteed. But beyond this season, Stafford has two more years on his contract, and no more guaranteed money. He wants to change that.
Stafford is seeking an adjustment to his contract that would provide him with more guaranteed money beyond 2024, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network.
Although Stafford is participating in voluntary workouts, the report says his contract request is “a lingering offseason issue for the Rams.”
It’s unclear what the status is of Stafford’s contract negotiations, and also unclear how far he’s willing to take it, including whether he could threaten to hold out or even retire if the Rams don’t meet his demands. But it bears watching at a time when the Rams are hoping to build a roster that can contend again around the 36-year-old Stafford.
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AFC WEST |
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DENVER Chris Branch of The Athletic with the quick summation of what the Broncos did at 12:
Thanks to the Penix pick, Denver’s Sean Payton escapes some scrutiny for picking Oregon QB Bo Nix at No. 12. This is a huge reach on most people’s boards. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler did not have Nix as a first-rounder in his last mock draft, slotting Nix at No. 44 in his list of the top 300 prospects. The Broncos’ QB plan post-Russell Wilson is apparently Nix, Zach Wilson and Jarrett Stidham. Not exactly thrilling.
It’s not hyperbole to say these two picks are historic moments for both franchises, and right now, they look like possible busts. It’s unfair to pin this on either QB — they might be great! — but the picks just make no sense beforehand.
QBs always go off the board ahead of their rank on Big Boards, so it shouldn’t surprise.
Ben Solak of The Ringer:
Loser: Sean Payton’s Clock in Denver We’ve waited a year to see how Payton’s master plan for bringing a franchise quarterback to Denver would unfold, and on Thursday night, we got the underwhelming reveal. The future of the Broncos franchise (and Payton’s job security) now rests in the hands of Bo Nix, a 24-year-old QB whom many pundits saw as a day two prospect with no spectacular physical traits to speak of. We’ve seen quarterbacks with a similar skill set—an accurate, quick-processing game-manager—thrive in the NFL, but they’re typically found on the second day of the draft and not with a top-12 pick.
But Nix’s predraft scouting reports no longer matter. He won’t be judged based on where he was going in mock drafts the past few months. He’ll no longer be viewed as a decent prospect with a chance to land a starting gig one day. Now that he’s been drafted with a premium pick and by a coach with a reputation as a QB whisperer, Nix will have to deal with real expectations. And if he doesn’t work out, the failure will fall on Payton, who’s already tried and failed to make one quarterback work in Denver. It seems unlikely he’ll get a third shot, which means all of Payton’s eggs are in the Bo Nix basket. That is not a spot any coach should want to be in. And it’s a brutal spot to be in as a Hall-of-Fame-level coach who’s talked a whole mess of s— for the past year. This had better work.
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KANSAS CITY Matt Miller of ESPN.com thinks the Chiefs had the best pick of the first round:
Miller: Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas to the Chiefs at No. 28. What has the Chiefs’ offense been missing since trading away Tyreek Hill? A legit deep threat with high-end speed. Well, they’ll have the fastest player in combine history — Worthy ran a 4.21-second 40-yard dash — running go routes for Patrick Mahomes now. Worthy is a speed demon, but he’s also a complete route runner. And he had great production early in his career as a punt returner. He’s not as big or physical at the catch point as Hill — he’s only 165 pounds — but the deep ball is back in Kansas City.
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LAS VEGAS The Raiders confounded many, including Jordan Reid of ESPN.com, with their selection of TE BROCK BOWERS:
Reid: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia to the Raiders at No. 13. After drafting Michael Mayer in the second round last year, tight end was far from a dire need for Las Vegas. This ultimately seems like a “best available player” approach, but with every defensive prospect still on the board when the Raiders were on the clock, selecting a cornerback seemed to make way more sense for a team that has multiple holes in its secondary.
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AFC NORTH |
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PITTSBURGH Mel Kiper, Jr. says the Steelers made out like bandits when OL TROY FAUTANU fell to them
Pittsburgh Steelers The pick: G Troy Fautanu (No. 20) What a steal by Pittsburgh. I wrote Thursday morning that I thought the Steelers were targeting Graham Barton to be their new center, but I didn’t think Fautanu would be available. This is a no-brainer. I had Fautanu at No. 10 and Barton at No. 19 in my rankings, and both were the top players at their position.
Fautanu played left tackle in college, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Steelers thought he could stick there and compete with Dan Moore Jr. in 2024 while they find their center somewhere else.
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AFC SOUTH |
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JACKSONVILLE Kudos for Jacksonville on their trade down from Mel Kiper, Jr:
Jacksonville Jaguars The pick: WR Brian Thomas Jr. (No. 23) This is how to maneuver the draft board. I mentioned the Vikings trading with the Jaguars, and to move down six spots from No. 17 to No. 23, Jacksonville was able to add No. 167 and third- and fourth-round picks in next year’s draft. What did GM Trent Baalke do when he moved down? He took the player he would have picked at No. 17.
Thomas could fill the void left by Calvin Ridley, who signed with the Titans in free agency. Thomas is a tremendous deep threat who can run under rainbow throws from Trevor Lawrence. I love this fit.
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THIS AND THAT
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RANKING THE QB LANDING SPOTS
Jeff Howe of The Athletic ranks the landing spots for the six QBs:
Let’s rank those six landing spots and why each QB is set up for success and failure.
Why Williams can succeed The former USC star was considered the best player in the draft and the top QB prospect since Lawrence. Compared to his draft class, Williams is in his own tier with his talent.
Bears general manager Ryan Poles has also quickly flipped the organization’s narrative. The Bears entered the past couple of seasons with poor supporting casts, but a surprising 5-3 finish validated their more recent additions, particularly the trade deadline acquisition of pass rusher Montez Sweat. That defense should take pressure off Williams.
And then there’s the obvious factor. The Bears have wide receivers D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and No. 9 selection Rome Odunze, along with tight ends Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett. They have a video game offense, and four of those five skill players weren’t on the roster 14 months ago.
Not only do the Bears believe they have their first franchise quarterback in decades, but they also dropped him into an ideal situation.
Why Williams can fail There were questions about the way Williams handled the pre-draft process, particularly the anecdote of someone from his inner circle asking about ownership stake. Though personnel executives polled by The Athletic believed those concerns were overblown, Williams will have to prove to his teammates he’s all about football and not just the business opportunities that come with the game.
There are a couple of coaching elements, too. Head coach Matt Eberflus seems to be in good standing after the late-season surge, but a rocky 2024 could shatter his job security. Conversely, if the Bears play well and Williams is a major reason why, offensive coordinator Shane Waldron could draw head-coaching looks. It’s tough to put a QB in a spot where they’re constantly recycling coordinators.
2. J.J. McCarthy, Vikings
Why McCarthy can succeed Head coach Kevin O’Connell runs a user-friendly system, and all systems are extra user-friendly when they have Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson and Aaron Jones.
McCarthy has been universally praised for his leadership and personality, so he should be in sync with O’Connell from the start. McCarthy has a strong arm and has displayed an it-factor on the field, notably in the Rose Bowl comeback against Alabama.
Why McCarthy can fail McCarthy was still viewed as the biggest projection of the group. Michigan’s system didn’t have many pro-style attributes, and McCarthy wasn’t asked to open it up and win the game through the air. Now, he’ll go from sprinkling in the occasional NFL throw to doing it on a down-by-down basis.
3. Jayden Daniels, Commanders
Why Daniels can succeed Daniels wowed teams with his improvement over the past two seasons at LSU, and the belief is that trajectory will continue in the NFL. He has a plus arm and electric athleticism that should help him make off-schedule plays right away.
Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury had some success with Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray, who has similarities to Daniels’ game. The Commanders also have good receivers in Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson.
Why Daniels can fail Kingsbury’s system has been criticized for becoming too predictable, particularly later in the season when there’s so much for defenses to scout on film. The offensive line also needs work, and the Commanders don’t need Daniels running for his life and taking unnecessary hits throughout his rookie season.
There will also be pressure on Daniels from the fan base. The Commanders are out of former owner Daniel Snyder’s shadow, and Daniels is the new face of the franchise as it ushers in a new era with owner Josh Harris, general manager Adam Peters and coach Dan Quinn.
4. Drake Maye, Patriots
Why Maye can succeed Maye has the best arm in the draft class and prototypical size, a perfect combination for a cold-weather team in New England. He’s as physically gifted as any QB in the draft.
Head coach Jerod Mayo has injected a refreshing new attitude at Gillette Stadium. The coaching staff and players are looser than they were in the final years under Bill Belichick, and the holdovers from the previous regime should have learned their lessons from the staff’s failure with Mac Jones.
Mayo has compiled a staff of coaches who emphasize a quality culture, and that should go a long way with Maye and the locker room.
Why Maye can fail The Patriots had one of the worst offensive lines in the league last season, and they haven’t done much yet to improve it. They also have a below-average group of skill players. They’ll be able to upgrade those areas in the draft, and de facto general manager Eliot Wolf figures to remain aggressive on the veteran trade market. Short of a couple of big additions, though, Maye is going to be up against it.
The new staff also must prove it can develop a young quarterback, particularly one who has shown erratic tendencies and footwork. Maye won’t reach his ceiling if his fundamentals don’t improve, and coaching is a major part of that.
5. Michael Penix Jr., Falcons
Why Penix can succeed Easily the biggest surprise of the opening round, the No. 8 pick figures to spend his first couple of seasons on the bench behind veteran Kirk Cousins, who has $100 million guaranteed in his contract.
Penix faces little pressure upon his arrival because he’s not expected to be on the field anytime soon. He can learn from Cousins and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, and Penix can be ready when necessary for a team loaded with offensive weapons. And for a quarterback with four season-ending injuries on his resume, a chance to take a breath for a couple of years could be advantageous.
Why Penix can fail It’s impossible to predict how a high-level competitor will handle throttling back for a couple of years. That’s not a knock on Penix as much as it’s an acknowledgment of the unknown.
If it were simply about the supporting cast, Penix would probably be in the third-best situation. But he’s the only player on this list who is an obvious first-year backup.
Penix also has to improve his mechanics under pressure, which doomed him in the national championship loss to Michigan. And the injury knock will follow him until he proves it’s in the past.
6. Bo Nix, Broncos
Why Nix can succeed Broncos head coach Sean Payton wants a quarterback who can take total command of the line of scrimmage, and Nix had plenty of experience handling those responsibilities at Oregon.
Nix is smart and mature, has better-than-average arm strength and can play the position like a point guard or distributor, which will be favorable with Payton. The Broncos coach revitalized Russell Wilson to an extent last season, so he still knows how to lead the position.
Why Nix can fail The Broncos have major roster restrictions after parting with Wilson. Aside from the dead money they’ve incurred, the Broncos also had to release safety Justin Simmons and trade wide receiver Jerry Jeudy among the subsequent cap-related moves.
The Broncos have had three head coaches in the past three seasons, so there’s something of an identity crisis with their offensive personnel due to all the turnover. This is a group with a long rebuild ahead.
Teams like Nix’s ability, but the consensus was that he’d need a quality supporting cast and a strong running game to elevate him. Denver has work to do to get Nix to that point.
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BROADCAST NEWS Andrew Marchand of The Athletic reviews Bill Belichick’s turn as a draft analyst with Pat McAfee:
Belichick’s analysis was like vintage Kiper Jr., with one difference. Belichick is arguably the greatest NFL coach in history, so his words had much more impact. In his opening act, Belichick came to play.
At 72, Belichick told everyone what he really thought about the 20-something-year-olds being drafted on services he may have not known or feigned knowing as a coach, when he famously seemed unaware — “SnapFace,” anyone — of new platforms, like ESPN+, YouTube and TikTok, which were where the McAfee program aired on Thursday.
It is part of the Belichick media blitz that will make him millions as he bides his time in hopes of returning to the sidelines again. Sporting a blue suit with a pink tie and handkerchief, he didn’t hold back, no more so than about the six quarterbacks drafted in the first round.
It was especially intriguing when he discussed his old team’s choice of North Carolina’s Drake Maye with the third pick in the draft.
“Drake compares himself a lot to Josh Allen,” Belichick said. “He’s been doing that for quite a while. We’ll see about that.”
Belichick noted that Maye has some similar athleticism, but had already said earlier that his footwork needed fine-tuning. Belichick made headlines, as he wasn’t afraid to say what he really thought, a refreshing change from his terse press conferences as a coach.
He compared No. 1 pick Caleb Williams to Russell Wilson, but emphasized Williams had to become more dependable. He nitpicked a lot.
Former Patriot and emerging broadcasting star Jason McCourty noted on social media as he watched his former coach that it “felt like I was back in a team meeting!” – – – Belichick played along with everything. He participated in a faux interview with commissioner Roger Goodell in an opening setup. He served as a booker, texting Denver Broncos coach Sean Payton to come on.
There was a draft board that the cowboy-hat-sporting Tone Digs, whose actual name is Anthony DiGuilio, would point to as Belichick explained options. Belichick even turned around to take a picture of the crowd at one point, breathing it all in.
This is just the start for Belichick. At the end of the draft Thursday, he announced he will do a weekly segment with McAfee on Mondays during the regular season.
While this is now set, he also has a semi-regular spot on ESPN’s “Monday Night Football” Manningcast lined up for the season. He is going to write a book on leadership. He may do a podcast and possibly a video show.
On Thursday, Belichick, seated with McAfee, Mad Mel and the crew, looked as if he was enjoying himself. He even smiled.
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2024 DRAFT Here are the grades, courtesy of Pete Prisco of CBSSports.com, the king of instant analysis:
1. Bears: Caleb Williams, QB, USC Grade: A- They say he’s generational, and he might be, but there are some concerns. I like his game, but I would have taken Jayden Daniels. Only time will tell.
2. Commanders: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU Grade: A I love this pick. It’s a great situation for a rookie. The team has a new owner, coach and now quarterback. They can grow together. He will be the best QB in this class.
3. Patriots: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina Grade: B He might need some time on the bench, but he has the talent to develop into a good starting quarterback in this league. He just needs to fine tune a few mechanical things. The Patriots had to get a quarterback.
4. Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State Grade: B+ He has the tools to be a star receiver in this league. The Cardinals had to get a receiver, so it works. He will be a big-time playmaker in their offense. I think Malik Nabers will be better, but it’s close.
5. Chargers: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame Grade: B He is the best in this class, but now he has to make the transition to right tackle for Jim Harbaugh. That can be tough to do. But taking a lineman makes sense, I just might have taken J.C. Latham as a better fit.
6. Giants: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU Grade: A+ I love this pick for the Giants. It says they didn’t believe in the quarterbacks who were left and now they get a playmaker on the outside. This kid will be a star.
7. Titans: JC Latham, OT, Alabama Grade: B+ He is a right tackle and they need a left tackle, so it will be interesting to see how they play it. But he’s a violent player wherever he plays. They cross-train at Alabama at both left and right, so he should be able to make a smooth transition.
8. Falcons: Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington Grade: B- They opted to take their quarterback of the future by taking Penix. He has all the tools, but will learn and wait behind Kirk Cousins. I wonder if he can rush the passer. Like the player, but don’t like the pick. Grade: B
9. Bears: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington Grade: B+ This is a smart pick for the Bears, even if taking an edge rusher filled a bigger need. Now you have a young receiver to grow with Caleb Williams. Odunze will give them a nice three-man receiver group.
10. Vikings: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan Grade: C+ They had to fill the quarterback spot, so it makes sense to take McCarthy. I don’t love him as much as others do, but it will be interesting to see how Kevin O’Connell and company will make it work.
11. Jets: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State Grade: B- He is a left tackle for the future, but also insurance if Tyron Smith can’t play the whole season, He is good in pass protection, but needs to improve his run blocking. This isn’t an all-in pick like Brock Bowers might have been.
12. Broncos: Bo Nix, QB, Oregon Grade: C- I don’t love Nix, but I get the pick. Desperation forces teams to pick quarterbacks earlier than they should. Sean Payton obviously sees Drew Brees in him, but this is way early. Why not trade down and get him later?
13. Raiders: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia Grade: C He’s a heck of a player, but didn’t they draft Michael Mayer last year and signed Harrison Bryant this year? They have other needs. Don’t really like this pick that much. It’s not like he’s a good blocker for their run game. Strange pick with other needs.
14. Saints: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State Grade: B+ He fills a major need for the Saints. They have big-time tackle issues. Fuaga is a nasty player who will start right away. Love it.
15. Colts: Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA Grade: B- I think there were other options for them in this spot and better edge rushers in my mind. But Latu has good pass-rush skills, although there are some medical concerns. They do need edge-rush help.
16. Seahawks: Byron Murphy, DT, Texas Grade: A They patiently wait and get the player who might be the best defensive player in this draft. Murphy has been compared to Justin Madubuike, who new Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald coached in Baltimore.
17. Vikings: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama Grade: A Love this move to go get Turner. He will be the best edge player in this class. The Vikings have had a lot of success with edge players and he fits with what Brian Flores wants to do.
18. Bengals: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia Grade: B- To me, Mims is feast or famine pick. He can be a star, but he also has some limitations because he hasn’t played a lot of football. This could pay off in a big way, but it’s risky.
19. Rams: Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State Grade: B+ The Rams patiently wait and end up with one of the best pass rushers in this draft. This fills a major need and will help compensate for the loss of Aaron Donald on the inside.
20. Steelers: Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington Grade: B The Steelers needed another tackle to go with Broderick Jones, but Fautano can also play inside. He is a physical player who fits what they want to do. This is a nice, solid Steelers pick.
21. Dolphins: Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State Grade: A I love this pick for Miami. He has the best first step in this draft. With a little coaching, he will become a dominant pass rusher. They can also move him around as a joker on their front. Love it.
22. Eagles: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo Grade: B+ The Eagles wait and get the best corner in this draft. That’s smart. There was talk of them trading up, but now they land a player who fills a need with age creeping into their defense. Nice pick.
23. Jaguars: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU Grade: B+ This is a heck of a move for a team that needs another young weapon. He can fly and his best football is in front of him. Watch out for their offense in 2024.
24. Lions: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama Grade: B The Lions needed some corner help, so it makes sense to make a move to get one. Arnold gives them another Alabama secondary player to go with Brian Branch, another player with versatility.
25. Packers: Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona Grade: C+ I might have taken Graham Barton here, but they need help up front so I get it. Morgan can move inside to guard but if they move right tackle Zach Tom to center, he would be their right tackle.
26. Buccaneers: Graham Barton, IOL, Duke Grade: A This is a great pick. They have major issues at center and a question at left guard and he can play both. I love this pick. Barton will move inside from tackle, but he can play there in a pinch too.
27. Cardinals: Darius Robinson, EDGE, Missouri Grade: B He is a good, solid player who can play outside and also can move inside as a rusher. The Cardinals needed help up front, so it makes a lot of sense to get a player with this versatility.
28. Chiefs: Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas Grade: A He can flat out fly. He has had some issues with drops, but for a team that once had Tyreek Hill it makes a ton of sense to get this type of speed. How much will Patrick Mahomes love this guy?
29. Cowboys: Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma Grade: B This is a move that has been predicted by a lot of people. He played right tackle in college, but can move to the left side. This fills a major need.
30. Ravens: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson Grade: B+ They have a need at corner and Wiggins might be the best cover player of all of them. He isn’t a great tackler, but he can lock on and play press man in their defense. He just needs to improve his tackling.
31. 49ers: Ricky Pearsall, WR, Florida Grade: C- This is a strange pick. Do they need one? If so, why Pearsall? Unless they are trading Brandon Aiyuk, why take this guy? It’s a luxury pick.
32. Panthers: Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina Grade: B+ They have to get weapons for Bryce Young, so landing him makes sense. He is a player who plays physical and runs better than you think. He’s only done it for one year. – – – Chad Reuter of NFL.com has his grades alphabetically by team. He issues lots of A’s and unlike some others, he’s all in with the Raiders taking TE BROCK BOWERS.
Arizona Cardinals Grade A Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (No. 4 overall) Missouri DT Darius Robinson (No. 27) Analysis: With the first-round pick gained in last year’s draft-day trade with the Texans, Arizona grabbed Harrison. The son of Pro Football Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison has the potential to be a Randy Moss-type downfield threat at the next level. The Cardinals need exactly that sort of playmaker. He can box out smaller corners on in-cutting routes and use his outstanding body control on the sideline to pick up crucial third downs. Kyler Murray should appreciate having Harrison in place for a pivotal season. Finding a powerful inside/outside pass rusher in Robinson late in Round 1 matched value and a high-priority need for the Cardinals.
Atlanta Falcons Grade C Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. (No. 8 overall) Analysis: Penix suffered season-ending injuries in each of his four years at Indiana, but the pocket presence, strong arm and accuracy he showed at Washington clearly captured the Falcons’ imagination. Without the injury history, he might have been the second or third quarterback off the board, so it made sense to see Penix picked among the second tier of passers. It is confusing, though, that it was the Falcons who took Penix after giving Kirk Cousins a massive contract this offseason (despite coming off injury). Add in the risk of the young quarterback having to battle back from another shoulder or knee injury early in his career, and I think it’s one of the riskier draft picks in recent memory.
Baltimore Ravens Grade B Clemson DB Nate Wiggins (No. 30 overall) Analysis: Wiggins’ recovery speed stood out on tape and was confirmed with a 4.28-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine. He’s not a physical tackler but is competitive at the catch point. Wiggins weighed just 173 pounds (measuring 6-foot-1 3/8 inch) at the combine, which is reminiscent of last year’s lean first-round corner for Washington, Emmanuel Forbes, who struggled as a rookie. The Ravens passed on Kool-Aid McKinstry to pick Wiggins and did not address the offensive tackle position despite Ronnie Stanley’s injury history and the trade of Morgan Moses.
Buffalo Bills Grade B None Analysis: Buffalo traded down twice on Thursday night. They swapped a fourth-rounder for a third-rounder and moved up in Round 7 so the Chiefs could pick receiver Xavier Worthy and then traded a seventh for a sixth with Carolina to drop from the final pick of the first round to the first pick of the second. I understand the strategy given the draft’s depth at receiver and lack of elite edge rushers, but they might regret passing on Worthy if he helps the Chiefs continue their reign.
Carolina Panthers Grade C South Carolina WR Xavier Legette (No. 32 overall) Analysis: The Panthers were looking to land their franchise quarterback by trading up to the No. 1 spot last year. Unfortunately, their poor 2023 season led to the Bears getting the No. 1 overall pick in that deal. I give former GM Scott Fitterer and Panthers owner David Tepper credit for being aggressive in looking to make a splash. In hindsight, many will say they picked the wrong guy first overall, but it’s too early to tell and we don’t know how the two quarterbacks would have performed had they switched places. They moved up one spot on Thursday, giving up very little value in swapping Day 3 picks for a chance to select Legette. His size/speed combination is impressive, but he was a one-year full-time starter for South Carolina and there will be comparisons with other pass catchers who were available, including Adonai Mitchell and Ladd McConkey, as their careers unfold.
Chicago Bears Grade A USC QB Caleb Williams (No. 1 overall) Washington WR Rome Odunze (No. 9) Analysis: It’s been clear since he won the 2022 Heisman Trophy that Williams would be the top pick of this draft, if he chose to turn pro. His ability to make great out-of-structure plays, deep throws and throw with touch between levels — not to mention his mobility outside and within the pocket — made him the draft’s top quarterback prospect. He’ll love throwing to DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and the ninth overall pick in Odunze, whose all-around game outside allows him to create plays on quick throws and beat corners deep to stretch the field. It’s a new offensive era in Chicago.
Cincinnati Bengals Grade C Georgia OT Amarius Mims (No. 18 overall) Analysis: Mims is a large human (6-7 3/4, 340) and one of the few players able to match the size of Cincinnati starting left tackle Orlando Brown (6-8, 345) and free-agent acquisition Trent Brown (6-8, 355). There’s no question about Mims’ power and ability to make running around his pass pro extremely difficult, which is important to protect quarterback Joe Burrow. He is a people-mover in the run game, as well. I will be interested to see if he has the recovery speed to handle secondary rushes. The young lineman carries some question marks coming off an ankle injury last season and playing a total of just 775 snaps in three seasons with the Bulldogs, per Pro Football Focus.
Cleveland Browns Grade D None Analysis: Cleveland sat out another first round due to the Deshaun Watson trade. The deal will continue to be questioned if Watson can’t regain the form he showed prior to sitting out the 2021 season and serving an 11-game suspension in 2022. He showed some signs of turning things around early last season before an injury sidelined him the rest of the year, but Watson needs to stay on the field long enough to lift the team to new heights.
Dallas Cowboys Grade A Oklahoma OT Tyler Guyton (No. 29 overall) Analysis: The Cowboys added a third-round pick from Detroit to move down five draft slots. Guyton’s large frame (6-7 3/4, 322) and length (34 1/8-inch arm) make him an excellent fit with Dallas. While he protected left-handed quarterback Dillon Gabriel’s blind side at right tackle for most of the past two seasons at Oklahoma, he played some left tackle and possesses the agility to take over for departed longtime starter Tyron Smith. It’s hard to imagine a better scenario for Dallas.
Denver Broncos Grade C Oregon QB Bo Nix (No. 12 overall) Analysis: I figured Nix would be in the mix in the top dozen picks because of his experience (61 collegiate starts), toughness and mobility. Denver badly needed a new quarterback after the departure of Russell Wilson, and Nix was the top remaining passer in the top two tiers at the position. He does not have the arm talent of the quarterbacks picked ahead of him, and he lacks elite quickness as a runner. He also struggled with his consistency early in his career at Auburn, but he bounced back in a new environment at Oregon. Head coach Sean Payton and quarterbacks coach Davis Webb probably liked the young man’s combination of efficient play and competitive spirit but it will be interesting to see if he has the game to warrant the 12th overall selection.
Detroit Lions Grade B+ Alabama DB Terrion Arnold (No. 24 overall) Analysis: The release of Cameron Sutton kept the cornerback position high on the team’s need list. Therefore, it was no surprise they made a trade with the Cowboys to move up for Arnold, one of the best defenders in college football last season. He blanketed pass catchers inside and outside for the Tide while also offering physicality in run support. Considered a potential top-12 pick for much of the pre-draft process, he presented good value at No. 24, but we’ll see if trading a third-rounder to Dallas instead of waiting for Arnold’s former teammate, Kool-Aid McKinstry or Nate Wiggins later in the round would have made more sense.
Green Bay Packers Grade B Arizona OT Jordan Morgan (No. 25 overall) Analysis: There was little doubt the Packers were looking at offensive tackles early in the draft following the release of David Bakhtiari. Morgan’s size and game are very similar to the former Pro Bowler’s, so the pick is not a major surprise. He’s a solid, smooth pass protector who doesn’t get beat with speed very often, but he can struggle against power rushers and isn’t a dominant run blocker. There were other tackles available, as well, in Roger Rosengarten and Tyler Guyton, as well as defensive back Cooper DeJean and defensive tackle Jer’Zhan Newton. Time will tell if those players would have been better selections.
Houston Texans Grade A None Analysis: In March, the Texans traded out of the first round, sending Minnesota the 23rd overall pick and receiving a 2025 second-rounder as part of the deal. The value difference between the 23rd and 42nd pick is not huge, so kudos to them for acquiring future draft capital. They sent their 2024 first-round selection to Arizona to pick Will Anderson Jr. last year. Anderson won the Defensive Rookie of the Year award and looks to be a future star, but it will be interesting to track the success of the three premium picks used to select him (12th and 33rd overall last year, this year’s first-rounder).
Indianapolis Colts Grade B+ UCLA DE Laiatu Latu (No. 15 overall) Analysis: Latu’s has an inspirational story. A neck injury forced him to retire from football at Washington, but he came back with a vengeance the past two years at UCLA after being cleared to play. He combines the power to take tackles into the backfield, the strong hands to disengage for secondary rushes if quarterbacks step up to avoid him and the closing speed to chase down ball-carriers. However, the potential risk based on his injury history is reflected in the grade.
Jacksonville Jaguars Grade A LSU WR Brian Thomas Jr. (No. 23 overall) Analysis: The Jaguars smartly traded down six spots in the first round to gain a middle-round pick this year and two in 2025. They may have selected Thomas at No. 17 if they stayed. Along with using his speed and length to separate downfield, he can also adjust to underthrown balls. Calvin Ridley departed in free agency, Christian Kirk is coming off an injury and Zay Jones is a 2025 free agent, so Trevor Lawrence should be thrilled with this pick.
Kansas City Chiefs Grade A Texas WR Xavier Worthy (No. 28 overall) Analysis: Everyone expected Worthy to run fast at the combine because of his track background and explosiveness after the catch. I believe the record-setting 4.21-second 40 locked his place in the first round. His ability to track the ball and turn short passes into long gains made me predict the Chiefs’ upward movement for their perfect pick. Worthy is certainly lean (5-foot-11 1/4 inch, 165), but he’s not significantly smaller than Eagles receiver DeVonta Smith (6-0, 170). Worthy brings the potential to produce chunk plays, which was a need for the defending champions.
Las Vegas Raiders Grade A Georgia TE Brock Bowers (No. 13 overall) Analysis: With six quarterbacks off the board before the Raiders picked, they couldn’t pass up Bowers, even after grabbing Michael Mayer in the second round last year. The former Bulldog’s potential value falls between George Kittle and Travis Kelce on the tight end scale. Agile and powerful after the catch, Bowers can line up at multiple spots for his new team while providing enough blocking to give running backs a chance to reach the sideline or find a seam. An ankle injury limited him in 2023, but he’ll be an instant-impact performer for whoever plays quarterback for the Raiders in 2024.
Los Angeles Chargers Grade B+ Notre Dame OT Joe Alt (No. 5 overall) Analysis: Alt cuts the figure of a prototypical left tackle at 6-foot-8 5/8-inches and 321 pounds, with 34 1/4-inch arms and excellent agility (registering a 7.31-second three-cone at the combine). He’s looked like a first-rounder the past two years, not only shutting down edge rushers with pure size but attacking defenders in the run game, dropping his hips to get leverage and pulling to create running lanes. He’ll be a long-time starter for a Chargers team seeking physicality up front — but did they miss out on the chance to add an impact receiver by passing on Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze? The draft’s depth may have influenced their decision to not replace departed veteran receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams on Thursday.
Los Angeles Rams Grade A Florida State DE Jared Verse (No. 19 overall) Analysis: The Rams found great value with their first first-round pick in eight years, grabbing a much-needed edge rusher in Verse who could have gone in the top dozen selections. He might not be as dynamic or bendy off the edge as some of the other pass rushers in this class, and he did see a drop in production from 2022 (17.5 tackles for loss with nine sacks) to 2023 (12 tackles for loss with nine sacks), but the transfer from Albany to Florida State looked plenty agile last season and has the power and relentlessness to accumulate sacks on primary and secondary moves. His strength in the run game should not be overlooked, either.
Miami Dolphins Grade B Penn State LB Chop Robinson (No. 21 overall) Analysis: Robinson has the speed and flexibility to be a top-notch designated pass rusher as a rookie and much more in the future. His relative lack of production in college (11.5 sacks in three years) belied his ability to win against tackles and disrupt plays. The Dolphins needed to add more edge rushers, even after signing Shaq Barrett in free agency, as both Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb are working their way back from season-ending injuries.
Minnesota Vikings Grade A- Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy (No. 10 overall) Alabama LB Dallas Turner (No. 17) Analysis: The Vikings moved up one spot to grab McCarthy, presumably to box out Denver and Las Vegas. He did not throw 40 times per game in Michigan’s run-heavy offense, but he has plenty of arm, excellent mobility and accuracy throwing to either side of the field. He can surprise with his open-field speed, and his ability to win games at the high school and collegiate level carries weight with NFL teams. While not a physical specimen, he is similarly built to C.J. Stroud and other quarterbacks recently drafted with top-10 picks. The Vikings made a pre-draft trade with the Texans to get a second first-round selection (23rd overall) and then moved up from that spot to nab Turner. His 4.46 40 turned heads at the combine, but he still fell, thanks to the rush for quarterbacks and likely also because of his average size for the position (6-2 3/4-inch, 247 pounds). He uses that low center of gravity and 34 3/8-inch arms to separate from blockers playing the run and long-arm them into the quarterback in pass-rush mode. He’s a very good value at 17, even though today’s trade ate away at the team’s mid-round capital, both this year and next. This draft is lean at edge rusher, and the Vikings decided to take a risk.
New England Patriots Grade A- North Carolina QB Drake Maye (No. 3 overall) Analysis: Maye possesses the physical characteristics to be an outstanding NFL quarterback. He stretches the field vertically, creates room for himself to throw within the pocket, runs with toughness and can place the ball to the sideline and between defenders when in form. But his consistency is an issue. He must make sure his mind, feet and arm are working in tandem on every throw. The Patriots will need to add more talent around him to ensure his success.
New Orleans Saints Grade A- Oregon State OT Taliese Fuaga (No. 14 overall) Analysis: With former first-round pick Trevor Penning struggling to live up to his draft billing, Ryan Ramcyzk’s career in serious doubt due to knee issues, and the recent retirement of lineman James Hurst, the Saints had to address offensive tackle in Round 1. Fuaga’s power off the ball, nasty attitude and ability to move to the second level at right tackle made him a favorite among NFL personnel evaluators. He has average arm length (33 1/8 inches) and athleticism, but he’s a tone-setter who has a chance to become a long-term starter in the league.
New York Giants Grade B+ LSU WR Malik Nabers (No. 6 overall) Analysis: Nabers’ quickness off the line, tight routes, strong hands and electric moves after the catch remind me of another former LSU wideout the Giants selected in the first round (10 years ago, in fact). If Nabers proves agile enough to win against NFL cornerbacks at the top of the route, he could become one of the league’s best receivers in time. The question down the line, though, might be whether the Giants would’ve been better off selecting J.J. McCarthy at No. 6 and then a very good receiver on Day 2 instead.
New York Jets Grade B Penn State OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu (No. 11 overall) Analysis: Even after signing oft-injured Tyron Smith and trading for Morgan Moses (both are 33 years old) this offseason, the team decided to pick Fashanu. His build, intelligence and smooth movements on the edge are intriguing, to be sure, and he should have some time to develop behind the veterans. But his game is raw, and the Jets could have gone with tackle Taliese Fuaga or tight end Brock Bowers — both of whom are ready to play now.
Philadelphia Eagles Grade A Toledo DB Quinyon Mitchell (No. 22 overall) Analysis: For once, GM Howie Roseman did not need to make a move upwards to find a great value at a position of need. Mitchell’s ability to run a 4.33 40 at the combine at 6-foot and 195 pounds locked his spot in the first round. His six interceptions and 46 pass break-ups during his time at Toledo showed his closing speed and ability to play the ball, as did his work against top receivers at the Senior Bowl. Mitchell often played off in college, but he has the strength and quickness to play man and showed the acumen to come off the edge as a blitzer. What a find for the Eagles, who bring more talent to the cornerback position.
Pittsburgh Steelers Grade A Washington OT Troy Fautanu (No. 20 overall) Analysis: Fautanu measures just 6-foot-3 3/4, 317 pounds, but he was a very effective pass protector for Washington with his 34 1/2-inch arms, natural bend and quickness. He may move inside because of his toughness and mobility in the run game, but being announced as a tackle Thursday night means he could stick outside to compete with Dan Moore. Fautanu’s stock may have dropped a bit due to a reported knee issue, but the Steelers smartly found value in the stud lineman, who joins last year’s first-rounder, Broderick Jones, up front to protect new quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Justin Fields.
San Francisco 49ers Grade B+ Florida WR Ricky Pearsall (No. 31 overall) Analysis: The uncertainty around Brandon Aiyuk likely led to the selection of Pearsall, whose silky smooth routes and solid hands were evident with the Gators and at the Senior Bowl. Florida’s very average passing attack didn’t help his cause (though he had an amazing one-handed grab vs. Charlotte), but he has the game to be a solid NFL starter.
Seattle Seahawks Grade A Texas DT Byron Murphy II (No. 16 overall) Analysis: One of the least surprising picks in the first round was Murphy to the Seahawks. His skills as a run-stuffer and interior pressure machine were worthy of a pick in the top half of the first round and something Seattle needed in its front four. His 6-foot-1/2-inch, 297-pound frame belies how well he plays under the pads of offensive linemen, and his quick first step makes him tough to handle one-on-one, especially on reach blocks. Similarly-sized tackles like Ed Oliver and Calijah Kancey show you don’t have to be huge to be a top-notch lineman.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Grade A Duke C Graham Barton (No. 26 overall) Analysis: Barton missed the end of Duke’s season due to injury but was still a first-round pick thanks to a strong pro day and game film. He started at left tackle for three of his four seasons with the Blue Devils, displaying great pass protection skills using natural bend and agility on the edge and a stout anchor. However, Barton projects to play guard or center (where he started as a freshman) for the Bucs due to his intelligence, tenacious blocking and average length (32 7/8-inch arm).Tampa Bay needed to find another interior lineman, so this pick makes a lot of sense.
Tennessee Titans Grade A Alabama OT JC Latham (No. 7 overall) Analysis: One would think the 6-foot-6, 342-pound Latham would lumber on the edge or struggle in pass protection, but he’s quick enough in the run game to hit linebackers and is a wall in front of his quarterback, showing the lateral quickness to cover ground and flexibility to widen for an anchor. With Joe Alt off the board when Tennessee came on the clock, this pick made the most sense for a team desperately in need of a real dude to join last year’s first-rounder, Peter Skoronski, on the offensive line. Latham may get a shot at left tackle, too, a position he said he can play despite not lining up there at Alabama.
Washington Commanders Grade A LSU QB Jayden Daniels (No. 2 overall) Analysis: The ascension of Daniels during his senior season led to this moment. The inconsistency shown through his career at Arizona State and LSU disappeared, especially in the second half of the season, when his decisiveness in the pocket allowed throws to hit their targets and his elusiveness and speed as a runner caused defenses major headaches. The hope is Daniels continues to add weight to his frame as he matures, which would make him even stronger in the pocket to use his arm to distribute the ball to Commanders receivers Jahan Dotson and Terry McLaurin.
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