The Daily Briefing Friday, April 28, 2023

Here is how they came off the board compared to yesterday’s rankings based on six Mock Drafts.

Counting WILL ANDERSON and NOLAN SMITH going to the linked team with a different picks, five of the consensus picks hit (also BRYCE YOUNG, BIJAN ROBINSON, EMMANUEL FORBES).

Of the 25 unanimous first rounders – three were not selected WILL LEVIS (8.8 avg pick), MICHAEL MAYER and JOEY PORTER.

JACK CAMPBELL chosen by the Lions at #18 was not in any of the six Mocks (although we did see him in quite a few others).  BRYAN BRESEE was in only one.

Apparently the reason QB WILL LEVIS is still on the board has to do with a toe injury.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Will Levis was generally included in a group of four quarterbacks who were expected to go at the top of the draft in discussions over the last few weeks, but it turned out that NFL teams had a very different view of him.

Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, and Anthony Richardson went off the board in the first four picks, but Levis has not been selected as the first round nears its conclusion.

A report from Chris Mortensen of ESPN may shed some light on why Levis has yet to hear his name called. Mortensen reports that one team called a left toe injury that caused Levis to miss time last year “problematic” and that another club thinks he might need surgery to repair the issue.

Per Mortensen, Levis believes his toe has fully healed and that he does not need to have surgery. Even if he did, one would think a team that believed in Levis’ ability to be a franchise quarterback in the future would have been compelled to make a move to get him as we moved well past the halfway point for the first round so the toe may not be the only or the lead reason why he’s still available.

Whatever the reason, Levis remains in the green room and it’s unclear if he will find an NFL home before the first round comes to an end.

NFC NORTH

DETROIT

Mel Kiper, Jr. is one of many draftniks who are not enamored with what the Lions did, but he’s nicer than most:

Teams that made head-scratching moves in Round 1

Detroit Lions

The picks: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama (No. 12); Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa (No. 18)

I thought I would like this Lions class when they traded down at No. 6. At that time, they owned pick Nos. 12, 18, 34, 48 and 55. But I just don’t get these two choices.

Let’s start with Gibbs, a multidimensional player who racked up receptions for the Crimson Tide. Look who else was on the board at 12, though. One of the cornerbacks — Christian Gonzalez or Emmanuel Forbes or Deonte Banks — or edge rusher Nolan Smith made more sense to me. Yes, Detroit has a bunch more picks on Day 2, but it could have found a running back there instead of at No. 12.

As for Campbell, it’s a reach of 40 spots in my rankings. He’s my third-ranked inside linebacker. I thought he’d go in the middle of Round 2 instead. When we talk about positional value, both of these positions are not usually prioritized in the first round, so this is the very definition of head-scratching. The funny thing is I had pegged Campbell to Detroit at No. 48 in my two-round mock a couple of weeks ago. There were much better players available when Detroit took him.

With Gibbs drafted, could RB D’ANDRE SWIFT be on the move.  Myles Simmons ofProFootballTalk.com:

D’Andre Swift may be on his way out of Detroit.

After the Lions selected Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs in the first round of this year’s draft, General Manager Brad Holmes told reporters that Swift was “still part of our team” while calling him a “dynamic football player.”

But other teams have taken notice of Gibbs joining free agent signee David Montgomery in the team’s backfield.

According to Jeremy Fowler of ESPN, the Lions have received trade calls on Swift and his representation has been in touch with Detroit’s front office about potentially moving him elsewhere.

Swift has been at or around 1,000 yards from scrimmage in each of his first three seasons. Last year, he had 931 yards on 147 touches with eight touchdowns in 14 games. He tallied 542 yards rushing with five TDs and 48 catches for 389 yards with three TDs.

A second-round pick in 2020, Swift was not drafted by the current regime led by Holmes and head coach Dan Campbell. As he’s entering the final year of his rookie contract, he could be a cost-effective option for a contending team that would like a dual threat out of the backfield.

Tyler Greenwalt of YahoSports.com monitors the overjoyed reaction of GM BRAD HOLMES and offers an alternative strategy:

Nevertheless, Lions general manager Brad Holmes went absolutely ballistic with excitement when the pick for Gibbs dropped and doubled down hours later, even despite the trepidation by media pundits on the position value of drafting a running back and off-ball linebacker in the top 18.

“They’re football players,” Holmes told reporters Thursday night. “If you believe that they can have an impact for you on the football field, then you just go ahead and take them.”

Take your pick on which decision was more questionable; both earned “F” grades from Yahoo Sports’ Charles McDonald. Only one other running back has been drafted in the top 12 since Saquon Barkley went No. 2 to the New York Giants in 2018, and it was an hour or so earlier Thursday night when the Atlanta Falcons took Bijan Robinson with the No. 8 pick. As for Campbell, the last off-ball linebacker to go in the top 18 was Devin White, who went No. 5 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2019.

But the positional value didn’t matter for Holmes.

“It’s not about just ‘don’t pick a running back’ because it’s not how we really view [Gibbs],”Holmes said. “And it’s the same thing about ‘don’t pick an off-ball linebacker.’ That’s not really how we view Jack. If you look at the totality of the draft, when we selected Jack he was our highest-rated player that was left on the board and it was actually by a good margin.”

Could the Lions have drafted either player later?

OK, so maybe both players were truly the Lions’ top-rated prospects on the board at the time. With many other holes on the roster, Detroit still could have traded back or grabbed other positions of need — both picks came before the wide receiver run in the back half of the first round and there were still solid defensive linemen or pass rushers left.

Holmes disagreed with that assertion, too.

“You can look at positions and all that kind of stuff but especially in this draft if you try to get cute and you’re like, ‘No, there was no other whatever you would tab as a premium position. Oh, you better get a pass rusher. Oh, you better get a tackle.’ No. That’s not what the case was,” Holmes said. “We had [Campbell] as the highest-rated player and the same with Jahmyr. We’ll just take the best player for us.”

The thing is, the Lions have two more picks in the next round — at No. 48 and No. 55. There was a very real possibility one or both of Gibbs and Campbell would have been there. At the very least, those picks would have given the Lions enough draft capital to move up in the event they got worried one would be taken sooner.

That didn’t matter for Holmes, who called the decision to stay at No. 18 and take Campbell a “no-brainer” despite most mock drafts positioning Campbell as a second- or third-round prospect. Holmes pointed to the work he and the team did on both players and noted that while he respects, looks at and understands mock drafts, he doesn’t believe they tell the whole story of a player.

“They do bring value but that doesn’t really move me,” Holmes said about where mock drafts placed Gibbs and Campbell. “I didn’t really look at, ‘Oh, Jahmyr Gibbs, he’s been mocking in the 50s.’ Now that one I did laugh at because if you look at the talent of the player and then you look at the totality of the draft I didn’t think that was even remotely close.”

We’ll see if Holmes’ mentality pans out for the upstart Lions, who are the current favorite to win the NFC North, per BetMGM, at +130 odds. Gibbs should play a large role, in the offense at least, as a member of the Lions’ backfield that also includes dual-threat running back D’Andre Swift and free-agent acquisition David Montgomery. Campbell, meanwhile should immediately start at middle linebacker for the Lions, who could fill more holes in the defense throughout the rest of the draft.

We don’t know who will be the round two shockers with 34, 38 and 55 – but something like this seemed within the Lions grasp:

12 –CB CHRISTIAN GONZALEZ or EDGE NOLAN SMITH

18 – Smith or CB DEONTE BANKS or TE DALTON KINCAID or NOLAN SMITH

29 – trade up with 48 and 55 – Gibbs

34 – Campbell

And all the draftniks would be giving high fives to Holmes!  They traded down and got Gonzalez who they would have taken at #7.  Then, they get a top 10 EDGE talent in Smith.  A canny trade up to steal Gibbs from the Eagles at #31.  And then, tomorrow, Campbell who could have gone early in the first and will be plug and play at inside linebacker.

NFC EAST

PHILADELPHIA

Mel Kiper, Jr. is among those hailing the Eagles for swooping up a pair of falling Bulldogs:

Biggest winners from Round 1

Philadelphia Eagles

The picks: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia (No. 9); Nolan Smith, OLB, Georgia (No. 30).

Wow! The rich get richer. Philadelphia moved up one spot, trading Chicago a 2024 fourth-round pick, to get the No. 1 overall prospect on my Big Board. The Eagles are going to reunite Carter with former Georgia teammate Jordan Davis — the two formed an outstanding interior duo in 2021. I love this pick. This team has the locker-room leadership to make sure Carter stays on track and plays to his potential.

Then the Eagles added another Bulldog late, getting my 12th-ranked player at No. 30. Smith missed half of the 2022 season because of a torn pectoral muscle, but he has rare physical tools. He flies off the edge. I thought he’d go much higher. Philly is putting together a defense filled with national champions — it also picked up linebacker Nakobe Dean last year. This is a great start for the Eagles.

NFC SOUTH

ATLANTA

The Falcons again invest heavily in a skill player with a first round pick with the selection of RB BIJAN ROBINSON.  Michael Rothstein of ESPN.com:

– The Atlanta Falcons have never been afraid to ignore conventional draft theory, and on Thursday night, they did it again.

The Falcons took running back Bijan Robinson from Texas with the eighth pick of the draft, the highest a running back has been taken in the draft since the New York Giants took Saquon Barkley with the No. 2 pick in the 2018 draft.

There might be questions about value, since running backs in the top 10 are a rarity in the modern NFL, but the Falcons and Robinson view it differently.

“Yeah, conventional wisdom, he’s a lot more than a running back,” Falcons coach Arthur Smith said. “He’s an impact football player.”

Robinson entered the draft unsure of whether he would be taken in the first round, let alone the top 10. He just didn’t know, even though he had a strong private workout with the Falcons that included a trip to a local BBQ joint in Austin, Texas, where Smith saw Robinson’s old Texas teammate, Falcons defensive lineman Ta’Quon Graham, eat the biggest rib he’d ever seen.

It was on that visit that the Falcons really got to understand Robinson and what he was about — how he could help them on the field and off it. They ultimately took the idea of running back value and ignored it, like the team has done with other players and their perceived positional values in the past.

“I understand the running back position has been looked at as a less-than position, but for me it’s a blessing that I can get these guys — even that are in college now, running backs — seen and looked at the right way,” Robinson said. “And obviously for me, being a guy that can play running back, play receiver, be really versatile and to get an opportunity to do the same thing is definitely a blessing, and I’m happy to share with those guys as well.”

Robinson demonstrated that at Texas, where he rushed for 3,410 yards and 33 rushing touchdowns in his career along with 60 catches for 805 yards and eight receiving touchdowns. That versatility appealed to Atlanta, which made him the first Texas player to be drafted in the top 10 since 2006, when quarterback Vince Young and safety Michael Huff went No. 3 and No. 7, respectively.

The Falcons’ offense values positional flexibility — almost all their skill position players can line up in multiple spots on the offense.

“Get unique with your personnel packages,” Smith said. “You line up where it looks like 22 personnel, you line up where it looks like 10 personnel, get in the empty.

“So it allows you to put a lot of stress, even just pre-snap logistically as you’re going onto the field the way we operate and play and we’ll evolve.”

Even though the Falcons drafted a running back and were a top-five rushing offense in the NFL, Smith said he is going to strive for more balance this year. Robinson provides an answer for that because he can be a slot receiver or a running back, something he tried to do more often his final year at Texas.

“I take pride in catching the football, too, as much as running the ball and blocking,” Robinson said. “I think that if you’re a complete player, it just makes the most sense.”

Under Smith and general manager Terry Fontenot, the Falcons have used their past three first-round picks on a skill position player. Before Robinson this year, they took tight end Kyle Pitts in 2021 and wide receiver Drake London last year. According to ESPN Stats & Information research, only two other teams since 2000 have taken a running back, wide receiver or tight end in three consecutive drafts: the Jaguars in 2004-06 and the Detroit Lions in 2003-05.

Robinson’s versatility and talent made him attractive enough for Atlanta to bypass defensive players at positions of potential need, including Oregon cornerback Christian Gonzalez and Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter, who were still available at No. 8.

When asked about choosing Robinson over Gonzalez or Carter, Smith said there are “a lot of talented players” in the draft, but it was clear the Falcons have a plan for how they want to use their talented new running back.

“You talk about positionless football,” Fontenot said. “The versatility, the impact that he’s going to make for us. We’re extremely excited.”

NFC WEST

ARIZONA

On the eve of the draft came word that the Cardinals were caught tampering when they wooed Coach Jonathan Gannon.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Shortly before the draft got underway on Thursday night, news broke that the Eagles and Cardinals were swapping draft picks to settle a tampering investigation.

The investigation was triggered by a phone call that Cardinals General Manager Monti Ossenfort made to Jonathan Gannon after the Eagles won the NFC Championship Game. Gannon was the Eagles defensive coordinator at the time and any Cardinals contact with him was impermissible because he had not interviewed with the team yet.

Gannon wound up interviewing after the Eagles lost to the Chiefs and was quickly hired as the new head coach in Arizona.

“I made a mistake,” Ossenfort said, via the team’s website. “I own that. It’s a situation we were able to resolve. I have apologized to [Cardinals owner] Michael Bidwill, I’ve apologized to our staff. The deal we worked out, it is what it is and we are moving on from it.”

The Cardinals gave the Eagles the 66th pick in this year’s draft and got the 94th pick back along with a 2024 fifth-round pick.

Ossenfort made a more beneficial swap for the Cardinals once the draft got going as he landed Houston’s 2024 first-round pick to move from No. 3 to No. 12. The Cardinals later moved back up to No. 6 in order to select tackle Paris Johnson.

SEATTLE

Mel Kiper, Jr. praises the Seahawks two picks:

Seattle Seahawks

The picks: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois (No. 5); Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State (No. 20)

This is a nice Round 1 for Seattle, which owned a top-five pick as part of the Russell Wilson trade. While I would have gone with Jalen Carter over Witherspoon, the cornerback combo of Witherspoon and Tariq Woolen could quickly become one of the league’s best. Witherspoon is my top-ranked corner, a true lockdown cover guy who can run with any receiver. For a team that wants to compete in the NFC West, he’s ready to play as a rookie.

As for Smith-Njigba, he complements Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf extremely well, as I mentioned a month ago when I first made this pairing. I thought he might go a little bit higher, but he landed in a great spot. We’re talking about a player who put up 1,600 yards and nine scores in 2021 when he was healthy. He can play outside or inside. Geno Smith has to be thrilled with this addition.

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE

On the eve of the draft, the Ravens reach a deal with QB LAMAR JACKSON that makes him, for now, the highest paid QB in the NFL.  Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com with a deep dive on the deal:

It worked out pretty well in the end for Jackson

No, Jackson didn’t get the fully guaranteed deal he reportedly wanted throughout this process. We’re still waiting to see the exact structure and cash flow of the deal to get a sense of how the guarantees work, but the top-line numbers are huge. Jackson has reportedly landed a five-year, $260 million deal with $185 million in guarantees. Both numbers would be the largest for any player in football, narrowly topping the deal Jalen Hurts signed with the Eagles earlier this month.

If Hurts’ deal is a baseline for Jackson’s, the contract Jackson is about to sign won’t be fully guaranteed, but it will be something close to practically guaranteed. I’ve used this term to talk about deals where it would be financially imprudent or close to impossible for a team to move on from paying a player because of how the deal is structured, often with his salary or bonuses becoming fully guaranteed a year in advance of payment.

Take Hurts’ deal as an example. The first $110 million — his signing bonus, base salaries in 2023, 2024, and 2025, part of his bonus in 2026 and option bonuses worth a combined $79.7 million in 2024 and 2025 — is fully guaranteed at the time of signing. If the Eagles suddenly decided that they didn’t like quarterbacks who can out squat most of the roster and inexplicably cut Hurts, they would owe him that $110 million. Fully guaranteed is fully guaranteed.

Even after that $110 million, though, the structure of Hurts’ deal makes it extremely likely that he’ll see an additional $99 million. In 2024, as long as Hurts is still on the roster, $16.5 million of Hurts’ $49.8 million option bonus in 2026 becomes fully guaranteed. The following year, the remaining $30.8 million becomes fully guaranteed, 12 months in advance of when it’s actually paid. Likewise, $22 million of Hurts’ $51 million compensation for 2027 guarantees in March 2026.

The only way the Eagles get out of those payments is if they cut Hurts, but given that Hurts’ 2023, 2024 and 2025 compensation is already fully guaranteed, it’s extremely unlikely that the Eagles will move on from Hurts before 2027 at the earliest. Cutting Hurts would cost the Eagles more than $100 million if they move on before the 2028 season, which has the effect of keeping Hurts’ cap hits relatively low while making it exceedingly difficult to move on from the Alabama and Oklahoma star.

Jackson’s deal is likely to have a similar structure, with a signing bonus and a year two or three option bonus to keep cap hits low. That’s a dangerous game to play when you’re doing it with multiple players on your roster, but it’s understandable when you’re paying the most important member of the franchise. I would expect Jackson to have more than $110 million fully guaranteed at signing and more than $210 million in practical guarantees over the next five seasons after you consider what he was already owed by the Ravens for 2023.

Is that fully guaranteed at the time of signing? No. It’s pretty close, though, and it’s in line with what the best quarterbacks in the league are getting in terms of their structure. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have longer-than-normal deals that look like outliers with the rest of the market, but their deals have more practical guarantees than full guarantees at signing. Players like Hurts, Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson have similar year-in-advance structures to extend their guarantees further. I would expect Jackson’s deal to be right in line with those contracts, and given the timing of when he signed, Jackson was able to top Hurts’ deal when the Eagles star was coming off an MVP-caliber season.

In the end, Jackson represented himself and won. The star quarterback did exactly what good agents do: He set the bar extremely high with his first demands, and when he eventually compromised, Jackson ended up landing the best possible deal the market was likely to deliver. He could have gone year-to-year and tried to enter unrestricted free agency in 2025, but after missing time each of the past two seasons with lower-body injuries, you can understand why Jackson was willing to take a massive guarantee right now. And without needing to pay an agent their cut, Jackson will save up to $8 million over the course of the deal.

Fully guaranteed veteran deals aren’t coming anytime soon (outside of very unique circumstances)

There have been two veteran quarterbacks to sign significant fully guaranteed deals over the past decade. One was Kirk Cousins, who inked a three-year pact with the Vikings as an unrestricted free agent after playing out two franchise tags with Washington. The other was Deshaun Watson, who negotiated with several teams as part of a trade. Watson (who was facing what would become an 11-game NFL suspension for multiple allegations of sexual assault, as defined by the NFL) ruled out the Browns, whose interest infuriated incumbent quarterback Baker Mayfield. After Mayfield requested a trade, the Browns went back to Watson with what amounted to a blank check, and Watson signed the five-year fully guaranteed deal before being traded to Cleveland.

What did both of those cases have in common? To start, the two players were quarterbacks in the prime of their careers. Cousins was 29 when he signed his first deal with Minnesota. Watson was 26 at the time he was traded to Cleveland. Other veterans might sign fully guaranteed deals for more modest amounts of money, but when we’re talking about the top of the market, only the guys who stand among the most valuable players in the entire league in terms of positional value and career arc were able to land a fully guaranteed pact.

Jackson fits into that group in terms of position and age, but there’s a big difference. While Jackson was technically able to talk to any of the league’s 31 other teams, he wasn’t truly available. Cousins was an unrestricted free agent, and while he required significant draft compensation in return, Watson was able to negotiate with whomever was willing to send the Texans their desired draft capital. Teams were in a position where they had to negotiate with each other to land a player at the most important position in sports.

Jackson was able to negotiate with whomever he wanted, but even a successful negotiation wasn’t going to guarantee anything for that team. The Ravens held the rights to match whatever offer Jackson received, and given how much they paid their star quarterback to stay in Baltimore, the leaguewide expectations suggesting the Ravens were always going to keep Jackson around seem to be warranted.

I think it’s reasonable to believe that this had at least some semblance of a chilling effect on negotiations. I’m not sure I ever understood what it meant when teams were “unwilling to do the Ravens’ work for them,” given that teams help each other establish the market by bidding against each other for players in free agency every year, but the only reason the Vikings and Browns were willing to offer fully guaranteed deals was because those contracts were what was needed to get those agreements over the line. Without the same promise in a Jackson negotiation, I don’t think the league was willing to make the same sort of leap.

Teams can probably use nonexclusive franchise tag in the future

One effect of the Jackson situation: Organizations probably don’t need to worry about using the exclusive franchise tag in the future. Jackson received the nonexclusive tag, which allowed teams to negotiate with the quarterback and sign him to an offer sheet, with the Ravens landing two first-round picks if they chose not to match. The exclusive franchise tag would have prevented teams from even negotiating with Jackson, but it would have been about $45 million as opposed to the $32.4 million cost of the nonexclusive tag.

The nonexclusive tag always made more sense for the Ravens because they wanted to get this deal done this offseason. The worst-case scenario for Eric DeCosta and company wasn’t losing Jackson for two first-round picks. It was losing Jackson for nothing more than a compensatory pick in 2025 after using two franchise tags on the star quarterback and being unable to afford a third. Using the exclusive tag would have made it more likely that Jackson went into 2024 playing on his franchise salary or further incentivized Jackson to sit out part of the season.

As a 26-year-old quarterback and former MVP, Jackson was arguably the most tantalizing player to hit the franchise tag market in league history. If anyone were going to drive teams to make a significant offer and run the risk of shipping off two first-round picks to land a franchise player, it would be a quarterback with Jackson’s ceiling in the prime of their career. Nobody was willing to even make that offer over the past two months.

Teams simply don’t seem willing to risk two first-round picks and/or tie up short-term cap space to try and acquire a star, knowing that the opposing team is likely to match. Teams have traded away players on the franchise tag for something less than two first-round picks, but the last player on a nonexclusive tag to sign an offer sheet and have his team decline the sheet to land two first-rounders was Sean Gilbert in 1998, and even that required Gilbert sitting out an initial tag in 1997 to get a deal done.

In other words, if an organization has a star player coming up for a possible franchise tag, it can probably sit back and save a few million dollars by using the nonexclusive tag as opposed to the exclusive one. That also matters in terms of structuring contracts, since some teams will use the values of what it would cost to franchise a player up to two times to help negotiate extensions before the franchise tag window. If there’s no real threat of losing that player to an offer sheet, they’ll feel comfortable using the nonexclusive cap numbers as opposed to worrying about an exclusive tag figure.

There are still teams who see Jackson as something less than a great quarterback

Having said all that, I don’t think we would have seen the same sort of hesitation about someone like Mahomes or Allen if they hit the franchise tag market under the same conditions. Let’s imagine a world where Mahomes doesn’t sign an extension and received the nonexclusive franchise tag for the 2022 season. With the same constraints and concerns about his team possibly matching, I think any team with even a tiny bit of cap space or a question about their quarterback would have been attempting to outbid the others for a shot at Mahomes.

Here, that wasn’t the case. Teams like the Falcons and Commanders with uncertain-at-best situations under center immediately announced through the media that they weren’t going to pursue Jackson. No team was willing to tie up their cap space in the first few days of free agency with a Jackson offer, and even after the dust settled and organizations weren’t likely to incur much of an opportunity cost by making an offer, no one did.

Remember: Jackson was the 32nd pick and the fifth of five first-round quarterbacks selected in the 2018 draft. The vast majority of NFL teams passed on him, a list which includes the Ravens, who drafted tight end Hayden Hurst at 25 before moving back up to land Jackson with the final pick of the opening round. Some of the public chatter about moving Jackson to another position seemed foolish and uninformed at the time and looks downright embarrassing years later, but even many of the teams who saw Jackson as an NFL quarterback didn’t see him as the best player on their boards in the first round.

There’s no doubt that the Ravens crafted a unique offense around Jackson to help unlock the most out of the former Heisman Trophy winner. Former offensive coordinator Greg Roman installed a slightly modernized version of the quarterback run game he used with Colin Kaepernick in San Francisco. DeCosta and Ozzie Newsome invested heavily up front and paid a premium for players like blocking tight end Nick Boyle to ensure that the Ravens would be able to physically overpower teams in the running game.

Those moves led to an immediate impact for Jackson as a rookie starter and an MVP campaign the following year, but it would be naive to pretend that Jackson has been quite as impactful over the ensuing three campaigns. Jackson’s still been a very good quarterback, but owing to a lack of offensive counterpunches, the regular absences of star left tackle Ronnie Stanley as a result of injuries, and receivers who have either been underwhelming or injured for stretches, Jackson’s numbers have declined. He set career lows in 2022 with a 62.3% completion percentage and 6.9 yards per attempt, figures which were both below league average. The concerns about Jackson’s playoff performance are overblown (look at what Peyton Manning did in his first three playoff games), but Jackson’s Ravens have generally been disappointing in the postseason.

The injuries also mattered. I believe Jackson’s very good at avoiding big hits unless absolutely necessary and protects himself on the field, but the former Louisville star has missed each of the final five games of the season in 2021 and 2022 with injuries. Jackson’s absence cost the Ravens a playoff berth in 2021 and a division title in 2022, with backup Tyler Huntley famously fumbling away a touchdown on the one-yard line and the Bengals returning the fumble all the way for a defensive touchdown in the opposite end zone in a narrow playoff loss. Pocket quarterbacks get hurt all the time, too, but there are organizations afraid of the less familiar who are going to chalk up back-to-back season-ending injuries to Jackson’s style, even if the hits which ended those seasons weren’t a product of careless play on Jackson’s part.

The good news for Jackson is that he will have every opportunity to prove the doubters wrong. Jackson will be ensconced in Baltimore for years to come. The Ravens replaced Roman with Georgia offensive coordinator Todd Monken, who should hope to build a modern offense combining Jackson’s rushing ability with a more advanced passing attack. Jackson, who ran a pro-style offense in Louisville under former Falcons head coach Bobby Petrino, should be running an offense similar to the one we saw the Eagles build for Jalen Hurts last season.

Jackson should also have more help than ever before. The team’s 2021 first-rounder Rashod Bateman is back after missing most of his sophomore season with injuries, and he’ll be joined by former Giants and Rams standout Odell Beckham Jr. Mark Andrews will be aided by the ascension of second-year tight end Isaiah Likely, who caught 36 passes as a rookie. Stanley played virtually every snap across the final six games of the regular season and the postseason, the first time he’s been able to do that since 2019.

Of course, the stakes are higher than ever before. Jackson was a spectacular bargain for the Ravens over the past few seasons, a superstar who made just $32.5 million combined between 2018 and 2022. Now, he’s becoming one of the highest-paid players in football. Excellence for a player on a rookie deal is a pleasant surprise. Excellence from a player making $50 million per season is the expectation.

Jackson was the player who got the Ravens out of a bind the last time they dealt with this situation, when Joe Flacco bet on himself entering the 2012 season. Flacco proceeded to get white hot in the postseason and lead the Ravens to an unlikely Super Bowl, and without any leverage, the Ravens gave him a six-year deal with an onerous structure to stay. The contract proceeded to destroy Baltimore’s cap flexibility, forced a second restructure on player-favorable terms, and eventually left the Ravens in no-man’s land.

After the Super Bowl run, the Ravens won just one playoff game over the next five seasons and went a combined 44-45 before a Flacco injury forced John Harbaugh to turn the team over to Jackson. He’s gone 45-16 as a starter since, albeit while also winning just one playoff game over that span. Jackson didn’t quite get what he wanted, but he’s been rewarded for his efforts over the past few seasons by becoming the highest-paid quarterback in football. Now, the Ravens will count on Jackson to ensure that this extension to a quarterback who bet on himself works out better than the last.

AFC SOUTH

HOUSTON

Seth Walder of ESPN.com puts the analytics on Houston’s deal to move up to get DE WILL ANDERSON:

Texans trade with Arizona, move up to No. 3 to select Anderson

Houston Texans get: 2023 first-round pick (No. 3), 2023 fourth-round pick (No. 105)

Arizona Cardinals get: 2023 first-round pick (No. 12), 2023 second-round pick (No. 33), 2024 first-round pick, 2024 third-round pick

Texans grade: C-

Cardinals grade: A-

The best thing a team can do to fast-track a rebuild is to take a first-round quarterback without having to trade up. It’s a gift the Texans were given when they took C.J. Stroud at the No. 2 overall pick. In fact, they had one better — an additional first-round pick in this year’s draft. But by trading up, they squandered a lot of the surplus value they had accumulated.

NFL teams are regularly overconfident in their ability to assess prospects, and the result is a trade market that punishes teams that trade up for non-quarterbacks. According to ESPN’s AV-based draft value calculations, Houston is surrendering the equivalent of a top-10 pick in extra value to make this selection. In fact, the picks this year (12 and 33) would almost be enough to get to fair value for picks 3 and 105.

That being said, two factors take the sting out of this for Houston, though:

1. Will Anderson Jr. is a consensus elite prospect that plays a premier position.

2. They did not pay as much as the 49ers did to move from 12 to 3 to select Trey Lance a few years ago. That deal was exorbitant, and at least the Texans did not consider that to be a set market price.

Mel Kiper, Jr. also is not thrilled with Houston’s manuvers:

Houston Texans

The picks: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State (No. 2); Will Anderson Jr., OLB, Alabama (No. 3)

Well, the Houston front office can keep a secret. General manager Nick Caserio kept the pick of Stroud under lock and key. Two weeks ago, I thought he was definitely going to the Texans. Recently, though, I heard a ton about them passing on a quarterback in the top five and going with an edge rusher. And on draft day, they did … both.

The Texans made back-to-back stunning moves, first taking Stroud and then trading up for Anderson with the Cardinals. They gave up a ton in the process — pick Nos. 12 and 33 in this draft, along with first- and third-rounders in 2024. In return, they got Anderson and pick No. 105.

In a vacuum, I love the prospects they added. Yes, Stroud is my third-ranked passer, but I had him at No. 5 overall on my Big Board — he was just behind Will Levis in my position rankings. Anderson had outstanding sack production in college and could rack up 10 sacks per season. The reason I wrote “in a vacuum” there is because of the haul Houston had to send to move up. This is a roster that needs a ton of help, so are we sure that 2024 first-rounder won’t end up in the top five again? Houston no longer has a second-round pick in this draft.

That’s why I’m putting Houston in the head-scratching category, even though I’m hedging a little bit. I like the players, but I don’t love the trade for a team that is still rebuilding.

INDIANAPOLIS

Stepen Holder of ESPN.com on the selection of QB ANTHONY RICHARDSON with the 4^th overall pick:

4. Indianapolis Colts

Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

Why they picked him: The Colts have been laser focused on the quarterbacks in this draft from the start. They had to solve this lingering problem that has existed since Andrew Luck’s sudden retirement in 2019. The Colts struck out with potential solutions in veterans Jacoby Brissett, Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan. Richardson represents the biggest draft investment at the position since Luck was drafted in 2012. Schematically, Richardson is a good fit for first-year Colts coach Shane Steichen, who helped maximize a mobile quarterback in Jalen Hurts the past two seasons as Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator.

Biggest question: How quickly can Richardson develop? Having started 13 games at Florida, Richardson is considered a raw prospect who will need to show more consistency on routine throws. His 53.8% completion rate last season raises lots of questions, but Colts GM Chris Ballard said Thursday the team can develop him in this area. As for whether Richardson will play as a rookie, Ballard was noncommittal. But he didn’t rule out a big or small role for the 20-year-old prospect. — Stephen Holder

Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com:

The Indianapolis Colts might finally be cured of their Andrew Luck hangover.

When Luck retired, the Colts started on a path of acquiring second-chance veterans at the end of their careers, hoping to get something out of them and then move on to the next one. The bottom fell out last season with Matt Ryan struggling badly, and the Colts found themselves with the No. 4 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. It was time to finally fix the quarterback position.

Say this about the Colts’ choice: They didn’t play it safe.

Anthony Richardson’s range of outcomes is as wide as pretty much any quarterback … maybe ever. If Richardson turned his all-world physical gifts into an MVP season or two, would it really surprise anyone? Or, would it be a big shock if Richardson, with all of 13 college starts and a lot of questions about his NFL readiness, doesn’t develop those impressive skills and washes out of the league quickly?

Anything seems possible with this pairing. That’s what makes it fun. If you’re going to invest in a quarterback, you might as well do it with one who has a truly elite ceiling. There’s no question Richardson has that.

Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson celebrates with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell after being chosen by the Indianapolis Colts with the fourth overall pick of the NFL Draft. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson celebrates with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell after being chosen by the Indianapolis Colts with the fourth overall pick of the NFL Draft. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

The moment Richardson was drafted, he became arguably the NFL’s most physically impressive quarterback. He had perhaps the best combine workout a quarterback has ever had. He ran a 4.43 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4, 244 pounds. He set a combine record with a 40 1/2-inch vertical jump and tied the combine record with a 10-foot-9 broad jump. He has an elite arm and rushed for 1,116 yards and 12 touchdowns on 161 attempts in college. Physically, there are no questions about Richardson. Colts GM Chris Ballard said the team decided a month ago that he was their target. It’s not hard to figure out why.

“He can spin it,” new Colts coach Shane Steichen told the media after the pick. “He has a huge arm.”

If being a physical specimen was all there was to playing quarterback, the Colts would be set for a while. But that’s not the entire story. Richardson has issues with his mechanics that led to inaccuracy. Most inaccurate college quarterbacks don’t make huge leaps in that area in the NFL, but Josh Allen did and now that will be the new template for wishcasting teams.

“I think the one thing we’re seeing in the league now is, guys, you can work on and get them more accurate,” Ballard said. “Footwork, fundamentals, and there’s certain things I think you can do. I think you’ve seen guys jump in this league. I think you’ll see him jump.”

Richardson might not have much time to sit and develop. The Colts have Gardner Minshew II on the roster as a bridge QB, and Ballard tried to preach some patience with the raw rookie — “Let’s not expect him to be Superman from day one,” Ballard said, while pointing out that some quarterbacks take a season or more to develop — but there won’t be much patience among the fans. Fourth overall picks don’t sit for a full season very often. It will be hard to resist putting him in the lineup when he shows off his talent in practice and preseason games. The Colts have more talent than most teams that draft in the top five, and if they start slowly with Minshew this season, it will be hard to be patient.

Richardson is the rare top-five pick at quarterback who should sit a full season. The test for the Colts will be how long they can wait before making him the starter.

“He’s going to have growing to do, like all of them do,” Ballard said. “But we’ll help him. We’ll bring him along and he’ll be a good player.”

It’s a franchise-changing pick for the Colts. One way or another.

AFC EAST

NEW YORK JETS

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com is not a fan of the terms of the deal for QB AARON RODGERS:

Several weeks ago, we argued that the Jets should act like they’re from New York/New Jersey. Instead, they did a deal that wouldn’t have even qualified for a set of steak knives in Glengarry Glen Ross.

Sorry, Jets fans, but your favorite team got fleeced. They had leverage. They just chose not to use it.

They chose not to say to the Packers, “This guy is never playing for you again. What are you going to do, pay him $60 million to sit on the bench? We’re in no hurry. He knows the offense. He doesn’t like to participate in the offseason anyway. We can do the deal at the start of training camp. We can do it at the start of the regular season, if need be.”

That’s the inescapable message from the terms of the deal. The 2023 second-round pick was a given. The Jets didn’t want to give up a first-round pick in 2024, unless it was the payoff for a great season.

In the end, the two becomes a one next year if Rodgers takes only 65 percent of the snaps this season. That’s not even two thirds of the full campaign. It’s only 11.05 games. He can miss nearly six games, and the Jets will still owe a first-round pick in 2024.

Then there’s the kicker. The flippity-flip of first-round picks in 2023. It doesn’t look like much to go from No. 13 to No. 15. In the upper half of round one, however, that’s a lot — especially since the Jets have now assumed a spot in line behind THE PATRIOTS.

But, hey, at least the Packers are sending the Jets a 2023 fifth-round pick in exchange for a 2023 sixth-round pick. As if that balances it all out.

It doesn’t. Not even close. Rodgers was never going to play for the Packers, ever again. The Packers got a two, a future one (most likely), and an upgraded first-round pick this year — with no protection to the Jets if Rodgers retreats to a dark room with a pot of ayahuasca and decides to retire after the 2023 season.

And so the Jets may ultimately have given all of that up for barely 11 regular-season games. With no guarantee of a playoff win, or even a playoff berth. With no guarantee of a winning record, or of even a single win during the 2023 season.

Team owner Woody Johnson asked on Twitter after the news emerged, “How’s everyone feeling?”

Packers fans should be feeling great. For Jets fans, the answer is simple.

“Not too good.”

Yes, they have Rodgers. But what did they give up? And what are they getting? They gave up too much for a roll of the dice, when it comes to on-field success.

Johnson, in turn, gave up perhaps just enough for a season of extreme relevance, with maximum ticket sales and in-stadium revenue and standalone games against the Bills (twice), Dolphins (twice), Patriots (twice), Chiefs, Eagles, Cowboys, and Giants.

Financially, the Jets will win. Whether they win enough games to get to the playoffs is a question for later. For now, it’s all about not the green of the helmet but the green of the cash that will be flowing into the owner’s coffers.

And it will be not for Woody but for his football employees to deal with making chicken salad out of the draft picks they surrendered for a quarterback who will turn 40 in December.

THIS AND THAT

2023 DRAFT GRADES

Scott Dochterman of The Athletic has grades for all 31 picks (edited somewhat).  He gives out 8 A or A- grades, two to the Eagles:

1. Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama Grade: B-

Carolina has tried four former first-round QBs and three others since Cam Newton’s last good season in 2018 (including Newton again in 2021), and nothing has worked. So the Panthers traded up to No. 1, gave up multiple first-rounders and their top receiver to Chicago and picked their long-term guy in Bryce Young. It’s a necessary risk, but is it the right risk for the right quarterback for coach Frank Reich?

Nobody is questioning Young’s ability, just his size.

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Perhaps the best physical comp for Young is Pro Football Hall of Fame quarterback Fran Tarkenton, who threw for 47,003 career yards and was nicknamed “The Scrambler.” If Young can complete passes and stay healthy like Tarkenton did in an era with far less quarterback protection, he’ll be an upper-third NFL quarterback within three years. If not, this decision could haunt Carolina for the next half-decade.

2. Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State Grade: B+

The Texans ranked last in yards per play and 31st in total offense last season. Houston needed a quarterback, and after significant posturing and speculation, the Texans did the smartest thing possible: they drafted a quarterback and it was the right one.

Much was made about C.J. Stroud’s lack of running ability, but that’s somewhat overrated because he could do far more damage through the air. Stroud posted national highs in touchdowns (41) and yards per attempt (9.5) while completing 66.3 percent of his throws. At Ohio State, Stroud (6-3, 214) was surrounded by some of the best receivers in college football history, and he let them make plays.

Stroud has great touch, and the Texans now can build around him. Though the Houston brass might have preferred a defender for defensive-minded head coach DeMeco Ryans, drafting Stroud is a step in the right direction. And they didn’t wait to get defensive help, either.

3. Houston Texans: Will Anderson Jr., Edge, Alabama Grade: A

Now that’s what we call gutsy, and it’s fantastic. The Texans appeared to waver between taking a franchise quarterback and a defensive pillar at No. 2. Instead of standing pat, the Texans went for both, and they drafted the top defensive player in Alabama edge Will Anderson.

The last time the Texans had a defender with double-digit sacks was J.J. Watt back in 2018, and Anderson will help right away in that area. No matter what SEC offenses threw at Anderson, none of them could slow him down. Few, if any, edge rushers were more accomplished in three seasons. Anderson became the first true freshman ever to start for Nick Saban, and he recorded seven sacks and he finished with 34.5 and 62 tackles for loss. Pro Football Focus recorded Anderson with an incredible 134 hurries and 36 hits outside of sacks.

Maybe his overall weight and speed (4.6 in the 40) aren’t considered ideal, but his potential is sky high.

4. Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida Grade: C

The Colts finally got off the veteran Merry-Go-Round after opening the season with a different quarterback for five consecutive years. This fall marks the sixth, and nobody has more physical potential than Florida’s Anthony Richardson, whose combine numbers were off the charts. Not only does he have great size (6-4 ¼, 244) with big hands (10 ½ inches), but he ran the 40 in 4.43 seconds and posted a 40 1/2-inch vertical. He averaged 6.3 yards per carry on 654 rushing yards and nine touchdowns. His former teammates rave about him and his character.

But for every “wow” play there was a “whoa” moment. GMs and coaches get fired when potential doesn’t produce, and Richardson is the riskiest first-round quarterback in draft history. Richardson is a one-year starter at Florida who completed 53.8 percent with 17 touchdowns and nine interceptions for 2,549 yards. He was the only Power 5 quarterback in the last three seasons with at least 300 attempts who completed less than 54 percent of his passes.

Richardson is the ultimate catnip. With his generational talent, he could lead the Colts to the Super Bowl multiple times. If he busts, everybody is getting fired.

5. Seattle Seahawks: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois   Grade: B-

The Seahawks needed major help along the defensive line and instead chose to go with Illinois cornerback Devon Witherspoon. Seattle was 26th in total defense and against the run and lost three key players up front. Perhaps Seattle believes it can pick up a D-lineman at No. 20 overall, which eliminates some criticism considering Witherspoon is outstanding.

Though he doesn’t have elite length or weight, his play and dimensions are comparable to five-time Pro Bowler Darius Slay.

6. Arizona Cardinals: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State   Grade: B

The Cardinals could have moved in multiple directions, including defensive line, but after giving up 46 sacks last year, they felt Johnson was pivotal for an offense missing its quarterback.

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One thing is certain: Johnson will pick up the Cardinals’ new scheme very quickly. A 4.0 student in high school, Johnson is fluent in Mandarin Chinese and earned his college degree in three years.

7. Las Vegas Raiders: Tyree Wilson, Edge, Texas Tech   Grade: B+

With only 27 sacks last year, the Raiders needed a pass rusher in the worst way. It was perhaps unexpected that Wilson would fall to them, but he’s a solid pick for the edge in their 4-3. It could be argued the Raiders needed a defensive tackle more than an edge, but Wilson lining up opposite Maxx Crosby and alongside Chandler Jones is a massive lift for the pass rush.

8. Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas  Grade: D+

With one of the NFL’s worst defenses that generated only 21 sacks last year and ranked 27th, the Falcons chose to turn their offense into their signature unit with Robinson.

– – –

It’s an exciting pick, and Atlanta could be fun on offense, but there were multiple defenders available who could have helped this team improve right away.

9. Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia    Grade: A

Howie Roseman, take a bow. By moving up one spot and giving up a 2024 fourth rounder, the Eagles grabbed one of the best interior defensive tackles in recent memory. The Eagles have the infrastructure to surround Carter and help him reach his potential, and Philadelphia is on track to maintain its defensive dominance.

Carter was a force for both of Georgia’s national championship teams. The only concern comes off the field. After weighing 314 at the combine, Carter was nine pounds heavier for Georgia’s pro days just two weeks later. While at the combine, Carter was charged and later pleaded no contest to two misdemeanors in a racing incident that killed a teammate and Georgia football employee. He’s considered a popular teammate but immature at times.

10. Chicago Bears: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee    Grade: D-

Duh Bears

The Bears had an NFL-low 20 sacks, ranked 31st in total defense and had a major need along the defensive line, especially at Matt Eberflus’ coveted 3-technique spot. Instead, Chicago opted for a right tackle in the draft’s most questionable early move.

GM Ryan Poles was a former offensive lineman and has tried to rebuild his roster on the O-line first. And Wright will help, but the Bears have nothing on the defensive line. Absolutely nothing.

11. Tennessee Titans: Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwestern   Grade: A-

Tennessee really needed an offensive lineman after limping to the finish line last year. Skoronski is the perfect fit for the Titans, whether it’s at guard or tackle.

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The grandson of Green Bay Packers offensive lineman Bob Skoronski, the current Skoronski faces significant questions about whether his arms are long enough to reach elite NFL edge rushers as a left tackle. It’s a valid concern.

So what will the Titans do with Skoronski? It might make sense to work him at guard first, get caught up to speed and then shift him outside. Or, let him prove he can’t play tackle before kicking him side. Either way, Skoronski has a Pro Bowl future.

12. Detroit Lions: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama     Grade: F

For three years, Detroit general manager Brad Holmes could do no wrong. In this case, he reached on the draft’s second running back. The No. 22 player on Dane Brugler’s big board, Gibbs was likely to be there at No. 18 when the Lions picked again. Considering Detroit ranked last in total defense and yards per play, it was an odd move. Even if the Lions stood pat at No. 6, they could have had Bijan Robinson.

That doesn’t mean Gibbs (5-9, 199) can’t help the Lions with his blazing speed and quickness.

– – –

In combination with new running back David Montgomery and holdover D’Andre Swift (if he remains a Lion), it could be a heck of a trio. But Gibbs could have been there at 18 or even No. 34 early in the second round.

13. Green Bay Packers: Lukas Van Ness, Edge, Iowa     Grade: B+

Without a clear need, the Packers opted for value at No. 13 overall with Van Ness (6-5, 272), who never started a game at Iowa. But there was a reason for that. Van Ness was just a third-year sophomore, and Iowa’s starting defensive ends were fifth-year seniors on one of the nation’s top defenses. Still, Van Ness, whose sculpted build led to teammates calling him Hercules, did have the most snaps of the three during the regular season.

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With 34-inch arms, a 4.58 40 time and a heavy-handed bull rush, Van Ness has drawn comparisons to Justin Smith and even Howie Long. Van Ness will fit right in as a 3-4 end or outside linebacker.

14. Pittsburgh Steelers: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia    Grade: B+

The Steelers entered the draft with three major needs: offensive tackle, linebacker and cornerback. With the early run on offensive tackles, the Steelers got aggressive and traded up for the top remaining offensive lineman.

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No lineman was faster at the combine than Jones, who ran the 40 in 4.97 seconds. His burst and ability to get to the second level are rare. Jones will need to make some technical improvements to become a good offensive lineman, but he’s capable of starting right away.

15. New York Jets: Will McDonald IV, Edge, Iowa State    Grade: B+

Without an offensive lineman of value at No. 15 overall, the Jets opted for an edge rusher to bolster their elite-level defense. It makes sense, especially because they picked one of the most twitchy athletes in the draft. It also ends a 50-year drought of first-rounders for the Iowa State program.

16. Washington Commanders: Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State  Grade: B

The Commanders’ defense needed a quality corner, and there were plenty available. Instead of opting for at least two higher-rated all-around corners, Washington chose the ultimate playmaker.

There’s no better pure cover corner in the draft than Forbes, who recorded 14 interceptions and defended 35 passes in three seasons at Mississippi State. Forbes returned six picks for touchdowns to set an FBS record and averaged 27.9 yards per interception return. His quickness, ball skills and speed (4.35 in the 40) are astounding.

But — there’s always a but — Forbes weighed just 166 pounds at the combine. He has long arms (32 ¼ inches) and a great wingspan (79) but looks more like a long-distance runner rather than an NFL player. Still, his size didn’t prevent him from tackling or attacking much larger players. Some teams avoided Forbes because of his weight, but his cover skills are special. Nah, they’re elite.

17: New England Patriots: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon        Grade: A

The Patriots married need with value better than any team thus far in the first round. New England had question marks in the secondary, and it landed the highest-rated corner in the draft.

The most physically gifted and smoothest of the cornerbacks, Gonzalez played both outside and in the slot at Oregon last year. With perfect dimensions for a cornerback, Gonzalez (6-1, 3/8, 197) ran a 4.38 40 at the combine and has more fluidity than other upper-tier corners.

18. Detroit Lions: Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa                     Grade: B

If the Lions’ first pick was puzzling because of value and need, this one is also could be considered a reach. But when it comes to culture and what coach Dan Campbell wants for his team, it all makes sense.

An underrated athlete, Campbell posted the top position marks at the combine in the 3-cone and shuttle drills, while finishing second in the broad and vertical jumps. As a junior, Campbell led the nation in tackles with 143. Last year, he had 128 tackles and was a unanimous first-team All-American and the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year.

Campbell (6-4 ½, 249) has a long frame and is disruptive in zone pass coverage. He’s fast enough to play man, but he’s better in zone. His quickness is underrated, and he’s a fierce hitter. He won the William V. Campbell Trophy as college football’s top academic football player and the Butkus Award as the nation’s top linebacker. If a team wants a culture changer or enhancer, Campbell will become a team captain by year two.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Calijah Kancey, DT, Pitt           Grade: B-

The Bucs had plenty of needs along the line of scrimmage, and Kancey is a smart pick provided the team reshapes its 3-4 for his talents.

A unanimous first-team All-American, Kancey thrived as an interior pass rusher last season with 30 hurries, according to Pro Football Focus. Although the comparisons are inevitable with former Pitt All-American Aaron Donald, perhaps Kancey’s best comparison is with former La’Roi Glover, a perennial Pro Bowl defensive tackle with the Saints.

20. Seattle Seahawks: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State      Grade: A

In Smith-Njigba, the Seahawks found the perfect complement to their receiving corps, and they will force defenses to cover every blade of plastic grass.

On perhaps the greatest receiving corps in college football history, Smith-Njigba still found a way to stand out. With Smith-Njigba, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, the Seahawks boast one of the best trios of receivers in the league.

21. Los Angeles Chargers: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU      Grade: B

The Chargers’ talented receiving corps has struggled with injuries in recent years, and Johnston gives them another tall threat at a position of need.

He also had eight drops last year, which is what kept him off many All-American teams. But with his tangible gifts, résumé and competitive instincts, Johnston has a chance to start and produce right away.

22. Baltimore Ravens: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College     Grade: A-

The Ravens were thin at receiver, and the electrifying Flowers happened to fall in their laps. It seems to happen every year in Baltimore, and it did this year, too.

Flowers was the only player on Boston College’s roster who could scare defenses, and still nobody could stop him. He’ll do the same thing with the Ravens

23. Minnesota Vikings: Jordan Addison, WR, USC     Grade: C

With only five overall picks, a tough salary cap situation and the 31st-ranked defense, the Vikings seemed set to improve that side of the ball. Or, with quarterback Kirk Cousins under contract for only one more year, Minnesota could have selected his replacement. Instead, the Vikings chose a prolific receiver in Addison to combine with Justin Jefferson and take their chances.

The Vikings’ offense gets more explosive with this move, but it comes at the risk of exposing an already challenged defense.

24. New York Giants: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland    Grade: B

The Giants couldn’t sit back and wait for a player they needed to elevate their secondary, so they did the right thing and moved up one spot.

Muscular, fast, physical and smooth, Banks soared up draft boards after an under-the-radar but effective career at Maryland.. Chances are that more people would have heard about him had he not missed all but two games following shoulder surgery in 2021.

25. Buffalo Bills: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah  Grade: B+

Josh Allen needed another talent in the passing game, and Kincaid gives it to him. Working in combination with Dawson Knox, Kincaid has a good frame, large hands and is a tremendous pass catcher. At this point in his career, Kincaid is more effective as a pass receiver than a full-service tight end.

Kincaid (6-3 ½, 246) is a true college football success story. He nearly declined to play college sports, then chose to compete for the University of San Diego, a non-scholarship FCS program. In two seasons, Kincaid totaled 19 touchdowns on 68 receptions. He entered the transfer portal and left for Utah. He saw action in five games in 2020, then became a go-to player for the Utes’ consecutive Rose Bowl teams in 2021-22 with 16 combined touchdowns and only two drops.

26. Dallas Cowboys: Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan   Grade: B

Dallas had needs at tight end and defensive tackle, and the Cowboys chose the latter to fortify a below-average run defense. Smith (6-3, 323) put up 34 reps of 225 pounds and holds up physically, even against double teams. There are questions about consistent effort and his inability to finish at the quarterback, but those will be addressed.

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Smith was arrested on a gun charge while pulled over for speeding last fall, but he had a permit for the firearm; he just didn’t carry it with him. He still started every game at Michigan the past two seasons.

27. Jacksonville Jaguars: Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma   Grade: B

A three-year player with two seasons as Oklahoma’s starting left tackle, Harrison worked in multiple schemes and has enough versatility to become a quality starter on either side for the Jaguars.

With starting left tackle Cam Robinson suspended for violating the NFL’s performance-enhancing policy, Jacksonville needed at least a swing tackle capable of starting along with Walker Little. The Jaguars traded down twice and picked up three additional mid-round selections.

28. Cincinnati Bengals: Myles Murphy, Edge, Clemson    Grade: A  

With only 30 sacks as a team last year and competing against elite quarterbacks seemingly every week, the Bengals matched need with value in selecting Murphy.

A former five-star recruit, Murphy has all of the physical tools to be an outstanding defensive end. He has the flexibility to play either side in the Bengals’ 4-3 and could start at some point this season.

29. New Orleans Saints: Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson    Grade: B+

The Saints struggled stopping the run, which is something a healthy Bresee could help with immediately. He has freakish athletic ability that the Saints could use both over the center and as a 3-technique. New Orleans also could have looked at tight end or defensive back, but Bresee has immense upside at the biggest position of need.

Bresee had a non-traditional college career after being the nation’s No. 1 overall recruit in 2020. He had to overcome significant adversity during his three years at Clemson, from his mental health following his younger sister’s tragic death to an ACL that cut his 2021 season short.

30. Philadelphia Eagles: Nolan Smith, Edge, Georgia     Grade: A  

Philadelphia has the best roster in the NFL, and it continues to scoop up defensive starters from two-time national champion Georgia. This time, the Eagles grabbed the electrifying Smith, who follows teammate Jalen Carter (No. 9 overall) and former teammates Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean last year.

No pass rusher in the draft boasts the speed off the edge that Smith presents. At the combine, he was disappointed with his 4.39 40 time, which was the fastest of any non-receiver/running back/cornerback. His 41 ½-inch vertical jump was the fourth highest. That athletic ability is rare for an edge rusher, even one on the small side like Smith (6-2 ¼, 238).

Despite tearing a pectoral muscle that limited him to eight games last season, Smith recorded a pair of sacks and 12 hurries. He was an instrumental member of Georgia’s 2021 squad as part of one of college football’s greatest defensive lines. With nearly 500 snaps, Smith picked up seven sacks and 18 hurries with a rare burst off the edge.

This was yet another a steal for the Eagles, who might break the NFL’s sack record next year.

31. Kansas City Chiefs: Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Edge, Kansas State     Grade: B

The defending champions lost a key edge rusher in Frank Clark this offseason and replaced him with local product Anudike-Uzomah. It was the second consecutive year the Chiefs drafted an edge defender in the first round, although Anudike-Uzomah and George Karlaftis are built completely differently.

An amazing success story, Anudike-Uzomah started his college career as a walk-on in 2020, then blossomed into one of the Big 12’s elite pass rushers. It’s not even necessary for Anudike-Uzomah to start, but he’ll fit in well as a situational pass rusher.

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Here is what ProFootballFocus thought:

R1 (1) CAROLINA PANTHERS: QB BRYCE YOUNG, ALABAMA

Pick Grade: Elite

Carolina moved up to No. 1 overall and secured their potential franchise quarterback. Despite concerns about his size, Young was the top QB on the PFF big board, and his 92.9 passing grade led all players at the position over the past two seasons.

R1 (2) HOUSTON TEXANS: QB C.J. STROUD, OHIO STATE

Pick Grade: Very Good

After a lot of speculation that they would pass on a signal-caller, the Texans ultimately select the second-ranked quarterback on the PFF big board. Stroud earned a 92.2 PFF grade in 2021, tying with Bryce Young, and he was the seventh-highest-graded player at the position this past season.

R1 (3) HOUSTON TEXANS (VIA AZ): EDGE WILL ANDERSON JR., ALABAMA

Pick Grade: Good

The Texans shock everyone and move up to No. 3 to select the top edge defender on the PFF big board. Anderson produced a PFF grade of 89.8 in 2021 and 83.6 in 2022 and racked up 207 total pressures in three years at Alabama. Houston lands a top player, but they pay a steep price.

R1 (4) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: QB ANTHONY RICHARDSON, FLORIDA

Pick Grade: Very Good

The Colts stayed at No. 4 and took a big swing on Richardson’s high ceiling. While he was inconsistent as a passer, he is arguably the most incredible athlete at the quarterback position we have ever seen, as he forced 39 missed tackles in 2022.

R1 (5) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: CB DEVON WITHERSPOON, ILLINOIS

Pick Grade: Very Good

The Seahawks surprise everyone and take Witherspoon at No. 5 overall. The Illinois product was the Power Five’s highest-graded cornerback last season. In press coverage for 107 snaps, he allowed just one yard in coverage on those plays.

R1 (6) ARIZONA CARDINALS (VIA DET): OT PARIS JOHNSON JR., OHIO STATE

Pick Grade: Good

After moving down from No. 3, the Cardinals move back up and select their left tackle in Paris Johnson Jr. He ticks all the boxes physically, coming in at 6-foot-6 and 310 pounds, and he allowed just 14 total pressures from 449 pass-blocking snaps last season, the best of his career. The wheeling and dealing by Arizona just makes this that much better.

R1 (7) LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: EDGE TYREE WILSON, TEXAS TECH

Pick Grade: Below Average

Wilson looks like he was built in a pass-rushing lab, so it’s not a shock to see him go in the top 10. That said, he ranked just 28th on the PFF big board because the consistency just wasn’t there in college. His 75.1 PFF grade last season was the highest of his career.

R1 (8) ATLANTA FALCONS: RB BIJAN ROBINSON, TEXAS

Pick Grade: Average

Teams wouldn’t usually receive an “average” grade for taking a running back in the top 10, but it’s hard to dislike this pick too much, given how good Bijan Robinson was in 2022. An impressive athlete at 220 pounds, he set a PFF college record with 104 missed tackles forced in 2022, producing a 95.3 PFF grade in the process.

R1 (9) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: DI JALEN CARTER, GEORGIA

Pick Grade: Elite

Landing the No. 2 overall player on the PFF big board at Pick 9 is a huge win for the Eagles. Carter played 392 snaps in 2022 and earned a 92.3 PFF grade that led all Power Five interior defenders. He registered 32 total pressures from 273 pass-rushing snaps. The Eagles had to give up just a 2024 fourth-round pick to make this happen.

R1 (10) CHICAGO BEARS: OT DARNELL WRIGHT, TENNESSEE

Pick Grade: Average

Wright fills a need for the Bears, but he is just the 22nd-ranked player on the PFF draft board. He produced a PFF grade of just 71.4 in 2022 but has some really good reps on tape where he just overpowers people. He allowed just eight total pressures in 2022.

R1 (11) TENNESSEE TITANS: OL PETER SKORONSKI, NORTHWESTERN

Pick Grade: Elite

The big question is whether Skoronski will play tackle or guard at the next level. He played tackle in 2022, though, and had a tremendous season. As Northwestern’s starting left tackle this past season, he allowed just six total pressures on 474 pass-blocking snaps.

R1 (12) DETROIT LIONS (VIA ARZ): RB JAHMYR GIBBS, ALABAMA

Pick Grade: Below Average

Gibbs is the second-ranked running back on the PFF big board, but he is also just the 34th-ranked prospect. Viewed as a potential late first-round pick, this is a big reach with the 12th overall pick. He can make an impact in the passing game, though, as he hauled in 103 passes for 1,215 receiving yards over the past three seasons.

R1 (13) GREEN BAY PACKERS (VIA NYJ): EDGE LUKAS VAN NESS, IOWA

Pick Grade: Average

Many thought this was the spot to find quarterback Jordan Love a playmaker, but the Packers instead opted for Van Ness. He uses his power to cave in opposing pass protections and likely comes with the versatility of being able to kick inside at times.

R1 (14) PITTSBURGH STEELERS (VIA NE): OT BRODERICK JONES, GEORGIA

Pick Grade: Average

The Steelers jump up three spots, giving up a fourth-round pick to make sure they land the offensive tackle they wanted. Jones impressed as a pass-blocker in 2022, earning an 84.1 PFF pass-blocking grade and allowing just nine total pressures from 470 pass-blocking snaps.

R1 (15) NEW YORK JETS (VIA GB): EDGE WILL MCDONALD IV, IOWA STATE

Pick Grade: Average

McDonald had the best season of his college career in 2022 and flashed incredible lateral quickness. PFF’s Sam Monson views him as the second-best pass-rusher in this draft class, but the Iowa State product was just the 29th-ranked player on the PFF big board. He finished his college career with 127 total pressures across 862 pass-rushing snaps.

R1 (16) WASHINGTON COMMANDERS: CB EMMANUEL FORBES,  MISSISSIPPI STATE

Pick Grade: Average

The 26th-ranked player on PFF’s big board, Forbes displayed an elite ability to play the ball in college. He produced an 87.2 PFF grade in 2022 and finished his three-year career at Mississippi State with 14 interceptions and 17 pass breakups.

R1 (17) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (VIA PIT): CB CHRISTIAN GONZALEZ, OREGON

Pick Grade: Very Good

The Patriots move down to 17th overall, add a fourth-round pick and still land the second-best cornerback on the PFF big board. Gonzalez has the size and speed you look for at the position and put together the best season of his career after transferring to Oregon in 2022, racking up four interceptions and six pass breakups.

R1 (18) DETROIT LIONS: LB JACK CAMPBELL, IOWA

Pick Grade: Below Average

Campbell is the top linebacker on the PFF big board but ranks just 39th overall. It’s not a good value pick, but he produced a 91.9 PFF grade, which led all linebackers. At 6-foot-5 and 249 pounds, he has impressive size and NFL-caliber range.

R1 (19) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: DI CALIJAH KANCEY, PITTSBURGH

Pick Grade: Very Good

He might be undersized, but Kancey is a phenomenal pass-rusher on the interior. His first step is elite, and he’s coming off a season where he led all players at the position with a 92.4 PFF pass-rushing grade. The Pittsburgh product should make an immediate impact in Tampa Bay.

R1 (20) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: WR JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA, OHIO STATE

Pick Grade: Elite

The Seahawks leave Round 1 with two of the top 10 players on the PFF big board. With a 91.7 PFF grade in 2021, Jaxon Smith-Njigba outproduced 2021 first-round draft picks Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson that year at Ohio State on a per-snap basis.

R1 (21) LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: WR QUENTIN JOHNSTON, TCU

Pick Grade: Good

The Chargers land the third-ranked wide receiver on the PFF big board and a player who can make people miss in space. Johnston forced 19 missed tackles on just 60 receptions and averaged 17.8 yards per catch. He did drop 11.8% of the catchable passes thrown his way this past season, though.

R1 (22) BALTIMORE RAVENS: WR ZAY FLOWERS, BOSTON COLLEGE

Pick Grade: Average

Flowers is shifty, knows how to separate and complements the Ravens’ wide receiver room well. He can replace the production they lost from trading Hollywood Brown last year, with Flowers racking up 500 receiving yards on throws 20-plus yards downfield in 2022.

R1 (23) MINNESOTA VIKINGS: WR JORDAN ADDISON, USC

Pick Grade: Good

The Vikings stick at Pick 23 and come away with a talented wide receiver to pair with Justin Jefferson. Addison won the Biletnikoff Award with Pittsburgh in 2021 before transferring to USC, and he finished the past two seasons with 25 touchdowns from 159 receptions.

R1 (24) NEW YORK GIANTS (VIA JAX): CB DEONTE BANKS, MARYLAND

Pick Grade: Very Good

The third-best cornerback on the PFF big board, Banks can fly and clocked a 4.35-second 40-yard dash at the NFL combine in Indianapolis. An elite athlete, he has proven that he can mirror wide receivers in college and has the size teams look for at the position. He produced a 72.0 PFF grade in his final season at Maryland, the best of his college career.

R1 (25) BUFFALO BILLS (VIA JAX): TE DALTON KINCAID, UTAH

Pick Grade: Elite

The Bills make a small jump to land the premier pass-catching tight end in the draft in Kincaid. This is a huge value pick for the 10th overall player on the PFF big board. Kincaid was the focal point of the Utah offense and led all players at the position with a 91.8 PFF receiving grade in 2022.

R1 (26) DALLAS COWBOYS: DI MAZI SMITH, MICHIGAN

Pick Grade: Average

It might not be an exciting pick, but for a team that has struggled to stop the run consistently recently, it makes a lot of sense. An impressive athlete for someone his size, Smith posted PFF grades of 75.0 or better in each of the past two seasons.

R1 (27) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: OT ANTON HARRISON, OKLAHOMA

Pick Grade: Good

This makes a lot of sense given the reported suspension for Cam Robinson. Robinson ranked 24th on the PFF big board, so the Jaguars get him at about the right spot but pick up three additional picks by moving down. He allowed just nine total pressures from 447 pass-blocking snaps in 2022.

R1 (28) CINCINNATI BENGALS: EDGE MYLES MURPHY, CLEMSON

Pick Grade: Very Good

Myles Murphy looked like a future top-five pick after a freshman season that saw him produce an 85.2 PFF grade, but he didn’t progress much beyond that. However, he produced a PFF grade of at least 79.0 in each of the past three seasons and racked up 76 pressures over the past two years.

R1 (29) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: DI BRYAN BRESEE, CLEMSON

Pick Grade: Average

A talented player on the defensive interior, Bresee is coming off a season during which he posted a career-high 82.0 PFF pass-rushing grade. He can play across multiple spots on the interior and even has experience playing outside the tackles.

R1 (30) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: EDGE NOLAN SMITH, GEORGIA

Pick Grade: Elite

The Eagles land the 13th overall player on the PFF big board with the 30th pick in the draft. Philadelphia retools its defensive line once again with elite talent by adding Smith, who might be undersized at 238 pounds but earned a 90.0 PFF run-defense grade over the past two seasons and is an incredible athlete.

R1 (31) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: EDGE FELIX ANUDIKE-UZOMAH, KANSAS STATE

Pick Grade: Good

Anudike-Uzomah produced PFF grades of 74.0 or better in each of the past two seasons and is one of the best edge benders in this draft class. He was one of the most successful players in college football at converting pressures into sacks, with 21 of his 89 pressures over the past two seasons resulting in such.