The Daily Briefing Friday, April 8, 2022

MINNESOTA

Mike Sando:

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are bucking expectations that their new GM, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, would implement a rebuild amid fears Minnesota will probably never win big with Kirk Cousins earning so much money.

“Too often people right now either want you to be Super Bowl favorites or tanking,” an exec said. “We have lost our ability to sit there in the middle class. The Chargers were on the fringe of the playoffs, make some moves and suddenly are contenders. The Vikings were in the exact same spot, they do some of the same things and people are like, ‘Oh my God, they are so stupid.’ And I fully get the Cousins fatigue.”

No one seemed more fatigued by Cousins than former Vikings coach Mike Zimmer, who was sometimes openly hostile toward the veteran quarterback. In contrast, Cousins was known to have advocated for Kevin O’Connell’s hiring as head coach.

“There is so much talk about Cousins, the new head coach and new GM that we are missing the point,” an exec said. “They have talent sitting on their defense and a veteran defensive coordinator (Ed Donatell) who knows how to utilize it. They lose (Anthony) Barr but gain Za’Darius Smith, who will be more disruptive to the passer. (Danielle) Hunter is the key to the whole thing. If he stays healthy, they are formidable and to be reckoned with.”

Knowing when to hit the reset button can be difficult.

“I’m having a hard time buying in,” another exec said. “Really, they are just staying the course, They still have no cap money, they have pushed money out, which they didn’t want to do, so I do not know what they are doing. They are just going to run it back and see if the new coach makes a difference.”

A new coach in combination with improved health could help. The Vikings did beat the Packers last season when Minnesota was relatively healthy. Might they become a healthier team after O’Connell brought with him to Minnesota the former director of sports science for the Rams, who have been unusually healthy? Could it be worth finding out in a depressed NFC? Not if you think escaping Cousins’ contract as quickly as possible is the most important thing.

“People think that because they hired an analytics guy as their GM, they are obviously going to tear it down, which is unfair to Kwesi,” an exec said. “That is not the only path available to someone with that background. They basically said they don’t know enough about their team, the way it was coached, the way it was injured, to blow it up right now. If they want to blow it up next year, great. I actually think come November, December, that could be a pretty frisky team.”

ATLANTA

Mike Sando:

Atlanta Falcons

Execs debated how much the Falcons might have gotten for Matt Ryan if they would have moved him last offseason or at the start of the 2022 trading period, rather than waiting as long as they did.

“I think they just gave Matt Ryan away to wherever he wanted to go,” one exec said. “One year ago, they get at least a one for him. That’s why Detroit moved so quickly trading (Matthew) Stafford, to get ahead of all the other quarterbacks dominoes that could have fallen. Atlanta waited, which is why Matt Ryan went for a three.”

Another exec pushed back on the idea that Ryan, who turns 37 next month, could have returned a first-round pick over the past year. Other Pro Bowl-caliber quarterbacks entering their age-37 seasons commanded less, including Warren Moon in 1994 (third- and fourth-rounders) and Brett Favre in 2008 (conditional fourth). The 49ers got a future first from Kansas City for Joe Montana in 1993, but they sent a player and a third-round pick to the Chiefs as part of that deal.

“Clearly they screwed up by not dealing Matt last year,” another exec said. “The interesting thing for Atlanta is, two of the most quarterback-needy teams are in your division, so you are probably not sending him there. You were probably a little bit more hamstrung than other teams.”

The Falcons preferred Ryan to the quarterbacks in the 2021 draft. They preferred Deshaun Watson to Ryan this offseason. Now, they have neither.

“The one thing I will give credit for Atlanta, they recognize their seven wins were a mirage,” an exec said. “They realized that and were able to adjust. They knew they couldn’t just keep pushing this. You give them credit because it is hard to realize it when you win some games.”

The adjustment included trading Ryan to the Colts for a third-round pick and signing Marcus Mariota to a deal worth less than one-third what Ryan was earning on a per-year basis. Mariota is still just 28 years old, but cornerback Casey Hayward, the second-highest-paid free-agent addition for Atlanta this offseason, turns 33 in September and will be on his third team in three years.

“They’ll compete because they have good coaches, but it’s a reset,” another exec said. “They are trying to get their cap back right, draft and sign as many young players as you can.”

NEW ORLEANS

Jeff Howe of The Athletic on what the Saints are up to:

If you read the terms of the Saints-Eagles trade this week and wondered, “Why?” you’re not alone, but a lesson from 2021 can be applied here to make more sense of the deal.

Before getting to that point, let’s rehash the trade outcome.

The Eagles received: a first-rounder (No. 18), a third-rounder (No. 101) and a seventh-rounder (No. 237) in 2022, a first-rounder in 2023 and a second-rounder in 2024.

The Saints received: two first-rounders (Nos. 16 and 19) and a sixth-rounder (No. 194) in 2022.

It’s pretty rare for a trade like this to happen weeks before the draft, with last year an exception due to the uniquely hyped quarterback class. It’s become widely assumed the Saints have done this to position themselves to make another move for a quarterback.

So why start the process so long before knowing who will be available?

The Saints tried several times last year to leapfrog the Patriots to steal Mac Jones as he slid down the board, according to sources. The Saints’ problem was that they couldn’t find a team that was interested in moving all the way back to No. 28.

Now, with very few consensus top-10 prospects in the class, the Saints have the assets to entice a team to move back. There might be several teams that would prefer to move their top-10 pick for Nos. 16 and 19, and the Saints are clearly motivated to find a long-term solution at quarterback after they had so many issues in their first season without Drew Brees.

But there might be an unintended consequence with the Saints’ early chess move. For example, maybe the Panthers were hoping to slide a few spots to get their quarterback, rather than staying at No. 6 for Malik Willis, Kenny Pickett or Matt Corral. Now, though, if the Panthers’ preferred QB is still on the board when they’re on the clock, they might not risk a move back with the Saints lurking.

The same could be said for QB-needy teams like the Falcons (No. 8) Seahawks (No. 9), Commanders (No. 11), Vikings (No. 12) or Texans (Nos. 3 and 13). Or maybe the Saints’ preemptive strike will cause those teams to make an early, aggressive move of their own. The Steelers, who pick at No. 20, also know they’ll have to contend with the Saints in the quarterback market.

Suddenly, an imperfect quarterback class — one that might’ve led to a more patient approach in the draft — might have just become the main draft storyline, with teams knowing they’ll almost certainly need to fend off the Saints to get their guy.

TAMPA BAY

Mike Sando:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It’s been a rollicking offseason for Tampa with Tom Brady retiring and unretiring before Bruce Arians handed over head coaching duties to Todd Bowles. But the free agency portion stabilized immediately once Brady announced his decision to resume his career. Brady’s announcement factored to varying degrees in re-signing center Ryan Jensen, running back Leonard Fournette, receiver Chris Godwin and possibly cornerback Carlton Davis.

“Tampa is basically running it back times two,” an exec said. “They didn’t do anything to add to their team. They basically kept it together, trading out Antonio Brown for Russell Gage.”

The questions surrounding Tampa Bay have less to do with free agency and more to do with what precipitated Arians’ retirement from coaching, and how the offense might change.

“What does their offense actually look like next year?” another exec said. “We are always looking to find out how much Arians, (offensive coordinator Byron) Leftwich and Brady have to do with the offense. Now we are going to have a better idea, because Arians is over in a consulting role and Bowles will not micromanage the offense. Now we divide the credit by two, not three, which could be interesting.”

ARIZONA

Mike Sando:

Arizona Cardinals

After making headlines last offseason by signing J.J. Watt and A.J. Green, the Cardinals suddenly appear to be taking a longer-range view.

Linebacker Nick Vigil and guard Will Hernandez are the highest-priced outside free agents the team has signed, each for less than $2 million per year.

Why the relative inactivity?

“They just extended the coach and the GM, and I think that is why you didn’t see a lot of movement,” an exec said. “They can draft and get themselves back into a better position financially.”

Watt’s signing last offseason could have foreshadowed Chandler Jones’ departure for a $17 million APY with Las Vegas. Jones had five sacks in the Cardinals’ Week 1 victory at Tennessee, then 5.5 more the rest of the season.

“I still think they have a good football team,” a GM said. “They ended up re-signing Zach Ertz, they get J.J. Watt back, they will get compensatory picks next year. There are some good rushers in the draft, so they will be able to address Chandler Jones leaving. They got James Conner back, who was really good in that offense, and then they will get ‘Hop’ (DeAndre Hopkins) back, which is a big deal.”

LAS VEGAS

Mike Sando:

Las Vegas Raiders

The last time the Raiders had a new head coach, they traded Khalil Mack to the Bears rather than entering into a new contract with him. Jon Gruden had a 10-year contract and could afford to take his time. This time, the Raiders were the acquiring team, landing Davante Adams from Green Bay for first- and second-round picks — a signal new coach Josh McDaniels is playing for the now.

“The Davante Adams trade, the Tyreek Hill trade, giving up a ton of draft picks to get guys and then signing them to top-of-market deals, I feel like teams are trying to copy the Rams’ model of using picks for established players,” an exec said, “but I think they learned the wrong lesson. The Rams weren’t even the best team in the NFC last year. They were probably, at best, third. And they won their last three playoff games by three points each. If any of those had gone the other way, they would be a cautionary tale rather than someone you are trying to emulate. I think the Rams understand that, but then the Raiders and Dolphins might not.”

The Raiders traded less for Adams than the Dolphins traded for Hill. They paid less for Chandler Jones than the Bills paid for Von Miller. But they are all-in on 2022.

“The Raiders went down to the last play with the Bengals in the playoffs,” another exec said. “The Bengals went to the Super Bowl. Everybody is so close. The Bengals got there, so why not us? Even moreso, in that division, if you don’t keep up with the arms race, you probably are the fourth-best team and you are not sniffing the playoffs.”

One exec wondered whether acquiring Adams foreshadowed a long-term deal with quarterback Derek Carr, who is entering the final year of his deal with the Raiders. This exec speculated that McDaniels might figure he could sign Jimmy Garoppolo next season as a fallback if he didn’t want to do a deal with Carr.

“They gotta be able to protect Carr,” a GM said. “That is going to be a big part of it, and their O-line was just OK last year. It will be interesting to see how they do. Defensively, they signed Chandler Jones, but look at their D-line on the inside. Who is playing D-tackle for them? And they don’t have picks to go get one.”

Right, but two No. 4 seeds met in the Super Bowl last season.

“Yes, all you gotta do is get hot at the right time,” the GM said.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

This could be a nice under-the-radar signing for the Chargers who get a speedy weapon in the return and passing games.

De’Andre Carter has signed a deal with the Los Angeles Chargers, Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network reported Thursday night.

Carter’s departure is a big loss for Washington, as the former Commanders wide receiver slash kick returner was one of the team’s best special teams players last season. He tied for third on the team with four total touchdowns in 2021, one of which came on a 101-yard kickoff return vs. Atlanta in Week 4. He was named NFC Special Teams Player of the Week for the effort.

Aside from the return game, Carter was a valuable asset in the receiving core, tallying three TD receptions over the season, good for second on the team. He also rushed for a team-high 8.9 yards per carry (min. two rushing attempts).

BALTIMORE

Mike Sando:

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens prioritized targeting a safety in free agency.

What year is it, anyway?

Marcus Williams, signed from New Orleans to a deal with a $14 million APY, joins Earl Thomas (2019), Tony Jefferson (2017) and Eric Weddle (2016) among the higher-priced safeties Baltimore has signed in free agency since 2016. Weddle and Thomas earned Pro Bowl honors in each of their four seasons with Baltimore, although Thomas lasted just one season.

“They have gone down that safety road a bunch even though they are not a big free agency team,” an exec said. “They mostly need to get healthy, but they still have work to do on their defensive front. They are patient. Ozzie Newsome always said, ‘Right player, right price,’ and they do not deviate from that.”

Bigger picture, this free agency period was marked by Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti’s comments regarding a contract for quarterback Lamar Jackson, who remains without an extension entering the final year of his rookie deal. Bisciotti, in comments made to reporters at the league meetings last month, suggested the Ravens’ roster did not suffer after signing previous quarterback Joe Flacco to a market-setting deal. Bisciotti also dismissed concerns that Jackson’s frequent running could put him at additional risk for catastrophic injury.

On the first point, the Ravens admirably ranked No. 1 in combined expected points added (EPA) on defense and special teams from 2014-2018, when Flacco’s contract carried inflated charges against the cap, according to TruMedia. Bisciotti can point to this as evidence Baltimore did not suffer from paying Flacco (the offense ranked 19th in EPA during this span, down from 15th over the 2008-2013 seasons, when Flacco’s cap chargers were smaller).

On the second point, there is no evidence running quarterbacks suffer catastrophic injuries at elevated rates. The concern is that the extra pounding might take more of a cumulative toll, as the case seems to have been with Cam Newton. Also, if a quarterback remains dependent on rushing to maximize effectiveness, what happens later in the quarterback’s career, when his rushing ability wanes? Those are the actual concerns, more than catastrophic injury.

CLEVELAND

With the status of QB DESHAUN WATSON uncertain for the start of the season, the Browns are currently hanging on to QB BAKER MAYFIELD.  Jeff Howe of The Athletic:

There’s still nothing imminent on the Baker Mayfield trade front, according to a source. It wouldn’t be a surprise if this drags out until after the draft.

Even though the Seahawks have been viewed as a plausible landing spot, a front-runner has not emerged at this point. The biggest holdup appears to be Mayfield’s contract.

Mayfield, who is still recovering from left shoulder surgery, is on the books for a fully guaranteed $18.858 million in 2022, but it’s becoming increasingly likely the Browns will have to pay a portion of that salary to move the quarterback. As inquiring teams have angled for leverage in that regard, the process has remained in neutral for the time being.

– – –

Mike Sando:

Cleveland Browns

The Browns might as well have named Deshaun Watson their new owner, general manager, coach and offensive coordinator after not only acquiring him for a package including three first-round draft choices but also handing him a groundbreaking $230 million contract that was fully guaranteed at signing. That’s how empowering this contract could be for Watson, whom the Browns signed even while 22 civil lawsuits against the quarterback for sexual misconduct and sexual assault remained unresolved.

“People talk about the contract precedent and what that does to the NFL, but that leaves out the simple reality that this guy (Watson) doesn’t need to listen to anybody,” an exec said. “If he wants Kevin Stefanski fired, doesn’t like the offense, whatever it is, Cleveland is stuck.”

Stefanski and GM Andrew Berry have been the public face of the Browns since taking over. Some saw the Watson acquisition was a reminder that Jimmy Haslam owns the team.

“Stefanski and Berry are intellectuals,” an exec said.

This seemed like a panic move, not an intellectual move.

“This was a Flying J move,” the exec said, referring to Haslam’s company. “Anyone who has worked under him for any period of time will tell you the Flying J (Haslam) is one of the most impulsive guys you’ll ever meet.”

Watson denied all allegations against him and did not allow he could have handled himself better in any of his interactions with the women he hired for massages and allegedly coerced for sexual purposes. The Browns introduced him and smiled while posing for pictures with him.

“Giving him a fully guaranteed contract, they basically said it doesn’t matter,” another exec said. “If you are Stefanski, you are an NBA coach now.”

Some in the league think there’s pressure on commissioner Roger Goodell to send a message with a longer suspension than he might have levied if Watson had shown contrition or if the Browns had not entered into a new contract so favorable to the quarterback.

“My question is, how do you justify paying Tier 1 money for a Tier 2 quarterback with some Tier 3 tendencies and all the lawsuits?” an evaluator said. “They might as well have paid him in cryptocurrency.”

Two execs questioned how well Watson would fit in a Shanahan-style offense such as the one Cleveland has operated under Stefanski. They saw Watson as an excellent off-schedule quarterback who could execute the boots and play-actions effectively but wasn’t at his best as a rhythm passer. Others didn’t see any issues there.

“What Deshaun does best is playmaking, off-schedule, throwing deep, all that, which does not strike me as the Stefanski system,” an exec said. “It may all work out, but he is not the person to give that deal and that power to. You might do that with Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen, and even then you wouldn’t like it. I just don’t understand. It just reeks of desperation.”

BUFFALO

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com breaks down the terms of the deal for WR STEFON DIGGS:

On Wednesday morning, Bills receiver Stefon Diggs became the latest pass-catcher to get paid. On Thursday night, the actual details have made their way to PFT HQ.

Here they are, per a source with knowledge of the terms.

1. Signing bonus: $21.5 million.

2. 2022 base salary: $2.575 million, fully guaranteed.

3. 2023 option bonus: $16 million, fully guaranteed.

4. 2023 base salary: $7.91 million, fully guaranteed.

5. 2024 base salary: $18.5 million, fully guaranteed in 2024.

6. 2025 base salary: $18 million, $3.515 million of which is fully guaranteed by 2025.

7. 2026 base salary: $19.092 million.

8. 2027 offseason roster bonus: $3 million.

9. 2027 base salary: $14.495 million.

10. 2022-27 workout bonuses: $250,000 per year.

11. 2022-27 per-game roster bonuses: Up to $255,000 per year.

The extension is worth $96 million over four years, an average of $24 million per year in new money. The total value of the contract is $124.102 million over six years, giving it a value of $20.68 million per year at signing.

Although initial reports suggested that incentives were also available, the initial information made available via the NFL Players Association includes no incentives or escalators. (It quite possibly was an oversight.)

The contract pays out $47.985 million fully guaranteed at signing, with another $22.015 million guaranteed for injury.

It will be a deal that covers at least two years at $48.995 million ($24.4975 million per year), and possibly three years at $68 million ($22.667 million). Regardless, the first two years are in the bank. It becomes a year-to-year deal thereafter.

THIS AND THAT

R.I.P. RAYFIELD WRIGHT

The AP on the passing of Hall of Famer Rayfield Wright:

Rayfield Wright, the Pro Football Hall of Fame offensive tackle nicknamed “Big Cat” who went to five Super Bowls in his 13 NFL seasons with the Dallas Cowboys, died Thursday. He was 76.

Wright’s family confirmed his death Thursday to the Pro Football Hall of Fame, which said Wright had been hospitalized for several days following a severe seizure. The Cowboys also confirmed the death.

A big player for his era at 6-foot-6 and over 250 pounds, Wright had already been a backup tight end for a couple of seasons when coach Tom Landry asked him about playing tackle. A surprised Wright said he had never played tackle in his life, but Landry told him he would make a good one.

Wright first started at tackle in a 1969 game lined up against Deacon Jones, the most dominant pass rusher of that era. Wright held his own and settled in as the full-time starter at right tackle in 1970, when Dallas made its first Super Bowl. The Cowboys then won their first Super Bowl title in 1971, the first of six consecutive seasons Wright was a Pro Bowler. He was a three-time All-Pro.

“He was absolutely the best,” Hall of Fame quarterback Roger Staubach said before Wright’s hall induction in 2006. “Rayfield was a big, strong guy that was able to transfer his size and strength from tight end to tackle. He also had such quick feet that he was able to deal with some of the faster defensive ends and even the linebacker blitzes. If he got beat, I don’t remember it.”

His “Big Cat” nickname was because of being so nimble for his size.

2022 DRAFT

Peter Schrager of NFL.com with his first Mock Draft.  He is the first to admit that it is heavily influenced by outside whispers, not his own analysis.

Just three weeks from the 2022 NFL Draft, it’s time to take my first crack at mocking the first round.

REMINDER: As always, this isn’t what I would do — it’s what I’m hearing from my sources around the league.

1  Jacksonville Jaguars

Aidan Hutchinson    Michigan · Edge · Senior

I’ve heard that this is far from a slam dunk, and that Jacksonville is keeping its options open and truly going through the process. The word out of Michigan is that Hutchinson’s the real deal in every way off the field, and he proved he can do it on the field as the Heisman Trophy runner-up with 14 sacks in 2021. He had the fifth-fastest 20-yard shuttle time out of all players at the NFL Scouting Combine, too.

2  Detroit Lions

Kayvon Thibodeaux      Oregon · Edge · Junior

He’s awfully confident (yes, a turnoff for some), he seems to be quite interested in his brand (yes, a turnoff for others), and there’s talk that his motor doesn’t show up every play on film (again, a red flag). But the former No. 1 overall high school recruit is whip smart, loves ball and his teammates at Oregon rave about him. Oh, yeah — he’s also an awesome pass rusher. Emmanuel Sanders was on GMFB this week and put it well: “If a quarterback was talking like that, it would scare me. … But a defensive lineman talking like that, I’m like, ‘OK, you’re supposed to feel that way; you want to be able to dominate guys.’ “

3  Houston Texans

Evan Neal         Alabama · OT · Junior

Neal is as gifted a physical specimen as you’ll find in this draft, and at 6-foot-7, 337 pounds, he can move. He has been a constant in Tuscaloosa on the offensive line since the day he arrived and can play inside or outside. The Texans are basically starting from the ground up again, with Neal becoming the new regime’s first Round 1 selection.

4  New York Jets

Sauce Gardner     Cincinnati · CB · Junior

Gardner is a 6-3, 190-pound corner who never gave up a touchdown pass in his collegiate career at Cincinnati. He walks the walk, talks the talk and interviewed incredibly well at the combine. There’s very little negativity surrounding Gardner’s game at all, and in a passing league, CBs have become all the more valued. Robert Saleh is a defensive coach, and Gardner might just be the one can’t-miss corner in this class.

5  New York Giants

Ickey Ekwonu         N.C. State · OT · Junior

The Giants are starting a new era in East Rutherford, and if Ickey falls to No. 5, there’d be a lot of happiness in Big Blue land. The 6-4, 310-pound road paver came to N.C. State as the lesser-recruited Ekwonu brother (his twin went to Notre Dame, where he currently plays) and has emerged as a potential top-five pick.

6  Carolina Panthers

Kenny Pickett            Pittsburgh · QB · Senior (RS)

Not every team will be clamoring for Pickett in this draft, but if there’s a franchise that makes sense, it’s Carolina. Pickett is considered the most NFL-ready QB in this class, ran an NFL-style West Coast offense at Pitt and was recruited by Matt Rhule when he was the coach at Temple. Oh, and owner David Tepper is a University of Pittsburgh graduate who got his MBA from nearby Carnegie Mellon. The thought is that Pickett can start for an NFL team on Day 1, and given the Panthers’ recent QB woes, that’s quite appealing, too.

7  New York Giants (from Chicago)

Travon Walker          Georgia · Edge · Junior

Walker could very well go first overall in this draft, as no prospect has seen his stock rise as fast as this Georgia product’s has over the last few months. His combine performance was legendary. And yet, there’s this notion that, for all his athletic ability and great football IQ (he apparently has been wonderful in the room during meetings with teams), the production simply doesn’t show up on tape. The Giants have gone to the UGA well before in recent years, with Andrew Thomas (No. 4 overall, 2020) and Azeez Ojulari (No. 50, 2021). I can see them going right back to it if Walker falls to No. 7, as he does here.

8  Atlanta Falcons

Jermaine Johnson II             Florida State · Edge · Senior (RS)

When it’s all said and done, Johnson could certainly go this high. Atlanta has a slew of needs and are in Best Player Available mode. I think Marcus Mariota, who spent years with Arthur Smith in Tennessee, is not just a “for now” QB. Hence, passing on Malik Willis and others.

9  Seattle Seahawks (from Denver)

Charles Cross                 Mississippi State · OT · Sophomore (RS)

The Seahawks are in rebuild mode. With the pick they landed from Denver in the Russell Wilson deal, I see them scooping up the talented Cross, who wasn’t asked to do much run protection in his time under Mike Leach but dominated in pass protection against some of the SEC’s best. Cross had a great combine week and can protect whomever the QB ends up being.

10  New York Jets (from Seattle)

Jameson Williams           Alabama · WR · Junior

Your first shocker of the 2022 NFL Draft. The Jets go with the electric Williams, who likely won’t be able to take the field until at least midway through his rookie season. Before the ACL injury, Williams was the top WR in this draft class, and when it’s all said and done, I think he still very well could be. The Jets are in this for the long haul, not just 2022. The expectation is that Williams will return to full health and end up being a true WR1.

11  Washington Commanders

Kyle Hamilton         Notre Dame · S · Junior

Hamilton is a Ron Rivera-type player: Smart, competitive and a leader. He immediately boosts the Commanders’ defense and is that dude behind their loaded front. Hamilton’s 40 time has gotten a lot of press, but he’s a true captain of a defense, and the film reveals his intelligence. Hamilton’s awesome instincts far outweigh his speed in the dash.

12  Minnesota Vikings

Derek Stingley Jr.     LSU · CB · Junior

Stingley recently received a clean bill of health and that’s huge. Before the injury, he was widely viewed as a sure-thing top-10 pick. Having dominated at LSU his freshman season, he had the luxury of squaring off against Justin Jefferson (a future teammate?) and Ja’Marr Chase in practice, where he more than held his own. Who better to groom him than former LSU star and possible Pro Football Hall of Famer Patrick Peterson?

13  Houston Texans (from Cleveland)

Devin Lloyd          Utah · LB · Senior (RS)

The do-everything linebacker out of Utah is viewed as an alpha-dog leader, is as instinctive as they come and can diagnose plays in real time. Lloyd is a franchise-cornerstone player and person, someone Houston can build around.

14  Baltimore Ravens

Trevor Penning         Northern Iowa · OT · Senior (RS)

I’m not sure there’s a prospect in this draft class who seeks contact — and looks to completely dominate his opponent — more than this guy. Penning is a nasty, light-footed, 6-7 mauler who had his way with defensive linemen while starring at Northern Iowa. And then he was tremendous against top-level competition at the Senior Bowl, opening eyes everywhere. He can play tackle or guard. More protection for Lamar Jackson.

15  Philadelphia Eagles (from Miami)

Drake London             USC · WR · Junior

If London slips this far, someone could trade up to get him — like we saw the Eagles do with DeVonta Smith last year. In this scenario, though, Philly gets to stick and pick. But, wait … Could the Eagles actually spend a third straight first-rounder on a wideout? Sure, why not? Nick Sirianni is an offensive coach, Howie Roseman isn’t scared to go back to the well, and Jalen Reagor hasn’t played up to expectations. Not to mention, Smith and London — two different body types — would be a nasty 1-2 punch.

16  New Orleans Saints (from Indianapolis thru Philadelphia)

Garrett Wilson                  Ohio State · WR · Junior

The receiver run will occur right around here in the first round, when London, Wilson, Chris Olave, Treylon Burks and Jahan Dotson could hear their names called. Smaller-school guys like Christian Watson and Skyy Moore could be in the mix, too. The Saints traded up to get here, and they get one of the Ohio State guys to pair with former Buckeye Michael Thomas.

17  Los Angeles Chargers

Chris Olave              Ohio State · WR · Senior

GM Tom Telesco hit big on his two most recent picks in the teens: Rashawn Slater (No. 13, 2021) and Derwin James (No. 17, 2018). This may seem like a luxury for the Chargers — who already have two top wideouts in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, as well as a second-year talent in Josh Palmer — but in a loaded AFC West … The more weapons, the merrier! Olave at No. 17 would be a heck of a value pick.

18 Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans)

Trent McDuffie           Washington · CB · Junior

There may be University of Washington scar tissue at the corner spot in Philly after the Sidney Jones pick a few years back, but I don’t think that will block Howie Roseman from addressing an area of need and doing so with a talented prospect. McDuffie and his teammate, Kyler Gordon, are right up there after Gardner and Stingley on CB boards.

19  New Orleans Saints (from Philadelphia)

Jordan Davis           Georgia · DT · Senior

The combine superhero slips all the way to No. 19, where the Saints gladly scoop him up. Davis is the most intimidating man in every building he walks into. He put on a show at Lucas Oil Stadium weighing 341 pounds — will he play at that weight in the NFL? Or will he be the 360-or-so pounds that he weighed during most of his last season at UGA? Great person and talent. I like this fit in Dennis Allen’s D.

20  Pittsburgh Steelers

Malik Willis                    Liberty · QB · Senior (RS)

Willis certainly could go higher than 20th overall. I know at least one NFL head coach who said the Liberty product is his No. 1 QB on the board. I do believe Pittsburgh is all in on Mitchell Trubisky. But with Willis slipping, Mike Tomlin and the Steelers’ front office select a quarterback with unlimited upside and a ton of charisma.

21  New England Patriots

Zion Johnson     Boston College · IOL · Senior

Johnson’s stock began to soar at the combine, and I’m hearing he’s interviewing incredibly well with teams. He can play center or guard and has a high football IQ. I think the Patriots can go a variety of ways (bold take!), but beefing up their offensive line and getting Mac Jones another protector up front makes sense.

22  Green Bay Packers (from Las Vegas)

Treylon Burks           Arkansas · WR · Junior

Burks is a big-bodied receiver (6-2, 225) with excellent ball skills. He did it all for Arkansas the last two seasons and views himself in the same mold as Deebo Samuel — in that he can be the big man in traffic or carry the rock if needed. If Aaron Rodgers wants a quick glimpse of what he could be getting in Burks, he should watch the wideout’s tape against Alabama, where he went for 179 yards and 2 TDs.

23  Arizona Cardinals

Jahan Dotson            Penn State · WR · Senior

I don’t see a scenario in which the Cardinals take a defensive player on Day 1 after selecting linebackers in the first round of the previous two drafts and losing Christian Kirk this offseason. DeAndre Hopkins and Rondale Moore are the team’s current WR1 & 2. I can 100 percent see Arizona going receiver here. Dotson is the top one left on the board.

24  Dallas Cowboys

Tyler Smith                  Tulsa · OT · Sophomore (RS)

Tyron, meet Tyler — and teach him everything you know. The Cowboys are going through a transition across their offensive line, and it’s time to reload with new, young talent. Smith is viewed as being a bit raw, but also as having one of the highest upsides among tackles in this draft. I don’t see him falling out of the top 32.

25  Buffalo Bills

Quay Walker                 Georgia · LB · Senior

Yes, Buffalo just added Von Miller in free agency. And yes, the Bills drafted pass rushers with their top two picks a season ago. That doesn’t mean they’re done on D. Walker was yet another combine star from UGA, and he’s versatile enough to fit in Leslie Frazier’s scheme at multiple spots.

26  Tennessee Titans

Nakobe Dean                Georgia · LB · Junior

Dean, whose decorated collegiate career includes the Butkus Award, first-team AP All-American honors and a national title, was described to me by one NFL GM as, “The alpha on a defense filled with alphas.” Mike Vrabel has a host of great young defenders with edge in his front seven. Here’s another one for the former LB to play chess with.

27  Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Kyler Gordon                   Washington · CB · Junior (RS)

The Bucs went with a Washington defender (Joe Tryon-Shoyinka) in the first round last year. Run it back here. Gordon is a former competitive dancer who uses his martial arts background for preparation on the field. He has a lot of fans around the league and may end up hearing his name called before his more heralded teammate, Trent McDuffie.

28  Green Bay Packers

Devonte Wyatt                   Georgia · DT · Senior

I know Packers fans may want two offensive weapons with these first-round picks, but I can see Green Bay adding a talented front-seven defender if one falls. Wyatt is that dude here. His selection would make five Georgia defenders in the first 28 picks — six if you include Jermaine Johnson II, who transferred from UGA to FSU.

29  Kansas City Chiefs (from San Francisco thru Miami)

Travis Jones                      Connecticut · DT · Senior

Jones had a breakout performance at the Senior Bowl and backed it up with an impressive showing at the combine. Connecticut has produced some quality NFL players in recent years, with a couple earning lucrative second contracts (Byron Jones, Foley Fatukasi). I like this fit for Steve Spagnuolo’s D.

30  Seattle Seahawks (PROJECTED TRADE WITH KANSAS CITY CHIEFS)

Matt Corral             Mississippi · QB · Junior (RS)

The Seahawks likely won’t go QB at No. 9, but I can see them sneaking back into the end of the first round to secure a QB and the coveted fifth-year option. Corral is a Long Beach Poly (California) kid who played for Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss. Think Pete Carroll knows a thing or two about those programs? I can see Corral suiting up for Seattle.

31  Cincinnati Bengals

George Karlaftis            Purdue · Edge · Junior

Karlaftis had 11.5 tackles for loss last season at Purdue, despite being the only elite talent on the defense. The Bengals get another young pass rusher to join their already promising unit.

32  Detroit Lions (from LA Rams)

Desmond Ridder             Cincinnati · QB · Senior (RS)

I’ve heard from coaches at the college level, his Jets coaches at the Reese’s Senior Bowl and other coaches who have spent time with Ridder that he has the “It” quality you look for in a starting quarterback. The third-winningest QB in college football history, Ridder could be a culture changer in the NFL. Jared Goff seems to be the guy in Detroit for now, but wouldn’t it make sense for the Lions to nab Ridder at 32nd overall?