The Daily Briefing Friday, August 12, 2022

AROUND THE NFL

MINNESOTA

QB KIRK COUSINS has symptoms and was sent home.  Charean Williams ofProFootballTalk.com:

The Vikings sent quarterback Kirk Cousins home after he reported feeling ill, Kevin O’Connell said in his news conference Thursday.

Cousins did not participate in the walk-through practice.

O’Connell said the team still is “working through” whether Cousins has COVID-19. Cousins, who was unvaccinated last season and thus subject to testing in 2021, missed a Week 17 loss to the Packers after testing positive in January. He also missed time in training camp last summer, including a preseason game, as a close contact with backup quarterback Kellen Mond after Mond tested positive for the virus.

Players no longer are tested for COVID-19 unless they report symptoms.

“I have not gotten much of an update, but I do know he was not feeling well earlier,” O’Connell said in a live video stream of the news conference. “We have a process in place where we sent him home, and we’ll go through our processes internally. I’ll get an update for you guys as kind of the week pans out on his availability for the Raider game.”

Cousins will have to spend five days in isolation if he is positive for COVID-19.

TAMPA BAY

A mysterious absence for a “personal issue” will keep QB TOM BRADY away from the Buccaneers for about 10 days.  Is it as simple as time with family prior to the grind?  Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:

Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady will be away from the team through Aug. 20 for a pre-planned, excused absence for a “personal issue.”

Given Brady’s stature, experience, and history of winning, no one appears concerned about how Brady being away might affect the team.

Head coach Todd Bowles and General Manager Jason Licht made that clear in separate media appearances on Thursday. And linebacker Devin White did, too, when speaking to reporters after the day’s joint practice with the Dolphins.

“He’s a grown man, growner than a lot of us in the locker room,” White said, via Greg Auman of TheAthletic.com. “He’s a human. At the end of the day, he’s got personal problems going on, but he’s been doing this so long, he doesn’t need to be here.”

White added the team knows Brady is still working.

“When he comes back, he’ll never miss a beat,” White said. “More than football, we’re praying for whatever he’s got going on as a human being. We hope everybody else does too.”

Bowles only said Brady was dealing with a personal issue when asked if the absence had to do with the quarterback’s health. And Licht emphasized that the absence was pre-planned.

– – –

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are talking up what they have in the 2022 version of WR JULIO JONES.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Wide receiver Julio Jones has spent a couple of weeks with the Buccaneers and his work on the field has earned him praise from his teammates.

Head coach Todd Bowles added his voice to the chorus on Monday when he said Jones is “explosive, very smart, understands the game and he can help us” during the season. General Manager Jason Licht got his turn during a Thursday appearance on WDAE and said Jones is further along that the team thought he would be at this point.

“He’s been more than I expected, to be honest,” Licht said, via Joey Knight of the Tampa Bay Times.

It remains to be seen just how Jones will fit into the offense alongside Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Russell Gage, although Gage is currently sidelined with a leg injury and any lingering absence would give Jones more of a chance to show the Bucs he can thrive in their system.

Mike Florio with his two cents:

Joey Knight, who covers the Buccaneers for the Tampa Bay Times, raised this question on Twitter: “If it was planned for a while, why didn’t they tell us that on Day 1 of camp? (‘Hey folks, just a heads up that Tom will miss some time during camp…’). That so easily could’ve dispelled the (warranted) speculation now occurring.”

That’s the problem. The way it was handled invites curiosity. Which results in speculation. As the situation has been explained by the team, it can be anything from a scheduled family surgical procedure to a mid-camp vacation.

Regardless, it’s unprecedented. (Then again, at this point for the 45-year-old Brady, everything is unprecedented.)

There’s also a question about whether his teammates knew he’d be leaving camp. Even with Brady being Brady, human beings will be human beings — and those left to do the real work will feel some resentment to anyone who isn’t pulling an oar next to everyone else.

It’s just strange. It’s odd. When has this ever happened before? And how can anyone say Brady is all in with the Bucs if his absence arises from anything other than an absolutely unavoidable personal situation?

We don’t know what it is, because no one is getting specific about it. And that’s fair. It’s Brady’s right to keep his personal matters private. But it’s the job of those of us who track the comings and goings of NFL players to wonder whether it will impact his professional status.

DENVER

The Broncos have a new team president with a league office background who enhances diversity.  Nick Kosmider of The Athletic:

The Broncos have named longtime NFL executive Damani Leech as the team’s new president, owner and CEO Greg Penner announced Thursday.

Leech spent the past three seasons as the chief operating officer for NFL International, charged with helping expand the game’s reach in markets like Australia, Africa, Brazil, China and Mexico. He previously worked in the league office in the business and strategic development departments.

Leech will report directly to Penner, the team said in a statement.

“As we sought to identify a dynamic, forward-thinking and inspiring leader to guide the Broncos into this exciting new chapter, Damani stood out among several very qualified candidates,” said Penner, whose group was officially approved by the NFL on Tuesday. “There was a high degree of interest in this opportunity with the Broncos, which speaks to the reputation of this organization and Damani’s strong credentials.”

Before working for the NFL, a chapter of his career that began in 2015, Leech worked in the NCAA national office in Indianapolis for 17 years. Penner said during the ownership group’s introductory press conference Wednesday that the new team president would be tasked with overseeing the franchise’s business operation, which includes the stadium management company that operates Empower Field at Mile High.

“It is a tremendous honor to join Broncos Country during such an exciting time for one of the premiere franchises in all of sports,” Leech said in a statement. “Greg and the other partners are visionary leaders, and the trust they have shown in me is deeply humbling.

“I’m thrilled to support our world-class ownership, leadership team and staff on this journey to drive innovation and growth throughout every area of the Denver Broncos. … Speaking with (general manager) George Paton during this process, it’s clear that this team is positioned to succeed on and off the field.”

Leech was a defensive back during his college days at Princeton, where he was a three-time All-Ivy League honoree.

BALTIMORE

It’s one thing to win when everything is at stake.  It is quite another to remain focused when nothing is on the line.  Hail to the Ravens, winners of 21 straight preseason games.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

By defeating the Titans, 23-10, the Baltimore Ravens have won their 21st straight preseason game, dating all the way back to 2015. It’s an all-time NFL record. But since it involves games that are inherently meaningless, what meaning does it really have?

Last year, coach John Harbaugh defended the significance of the record when the Ravens got to 19, matching the Lombardi-era Packers.

“There’s going to be people that are going to say this doesn’t mean anything,” Harbaugh said. “There’s going to be people that are going to look at it and say, ‘Wow, that’s something.’ I’m of the belief that everything has meaning in life. . . . All those guys who were a part of that over those years should be proud tonight of that because it’s something only one other team has ever done — the Vince Lombardi Green Bay Packers. I’d say that’s notable.”

It’s a testament to the intensely competitive nature of John Harbaugh. And as long as his competitive nature doesn’t get him to do stupid things, like re-insert starters late in a close game (e.g., Rex Ryan getting Mark Sanchez injured in the Snoopy Bowl), it’s no big deal.

Still, it really is meaningless. Preseason records evaporate as soon as the exhibition games end. The 2008 Lions went 0-16 after going 4-0 in the preseason. Those August wins aren’t any type of silver lining on a season of sewage.

Roughly a decade ago, while folks were complaining about the quality of preseason games, I suggested making preseason record one of the final tiebreakers, just above coin flip. And that made plenty of people lose their minds.

So it’s meaningless. If the Ravens want to give meaning to it, that’s their business. But if they ever let that get in the way of what really matters, they cross the line from competitive into colossally ignorant.

CLEVELAND

With Peter Harvey about to wield the hammer handed him by Roger Goodell, the camp of QB DESHAUN WATSON floats a more severe punishment they would be willing to accept.  Rob Maadi of The AP has a source:

Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson would accept an eight-game suspension and $5 million fine to avoid missing the entire season, a person familiar with his defense told The Associated Press on Thursday.

Watson, who is facing a potential year-long ban for sexual misconduct, would agree to a lesser penalty in a settlement, said the person who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the case.

The biggest question is whether the NFL would make this compromise.

A settlement has always been possible, but it’s not clear if the sides are in active discussions.

The league is seeking a minimum suspension of 17 games, a significant fine over $5 million and wants Watson to be required to undergo evaluation and treatment as determined by medical experts before he could be reinstated.

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com scoffs at the notion that this will deter NFL Justice, through its designee, from striking hard.

Our guess is that the league regards it to be far too little, and far too late.

In the current posture, the NFL is at the end of the road, with Harvey eight days into an appeal process that, by rule, must be expedited. It’s entirely possible that Harvey is putting the finishing touches on a written ruling that will suspend Watson for at least one full season, effective tomorrow. Watson’s sudden willingness to make a significant proposal comes at a time when it’s increasingly obvious that Harvey will be doing what Commissioner Roger Goodell wants — dropping the hammer on Watson.

The league can’t turn back now, not after the Commissioner used words like “egregious” and “predatory” when discussing Watson two days ago. A negotiated compromise that would result in Watson missing only two more games than Judge Sue L. Robinson imposed likely won’t fly in the court of public opinion. Thus, it won’t fly with the league.

Besides, at some point this isn’t about Deshaun Watson. It’s about the next Deshaun Watson. It’s about sending a clear message to any player accused of wrongdoing in the future that it’s always better to take your reckoning as early as possible, avoiding months of bad press and countless hours of work to prove something that the player should have just admitted to having done.

It’s also about the NFL fully exercising the power that it continues to possess under the Collective Bargaining Agreement and the Personal Conduct Policy.

Watson could have settled the Ashley Solis claim for payment in the range of $75,000, before the first suit was filed. Instead, Watson’s camp stonewalled attorney Tony Buzbee, and in so doing pissed him off. One lawsuit became 24 became repeated P.R. body blows and millions of dollars in settlements and legal fees. It hurt the league, too. The endless Watson stories damaged The Shield, indirectly. And if Watson had simply owned up to his misconduct instead of constantly doubling down, this would have ended for both him and the league before it ever even started.

Instead, Watson categorically denied wrongdoing. Judge Robinson necessarily found that Watson lied to the league’s investigators. One of his representatives crowed about Watson’s innocence to Adam Schefter of ESPN after a grand jury decided in March not to indict Watson, which only made things worse when Schefter tweeted that Watson welcomed a criminal investigation because he knew “the truth would come out.” Last Thursday, Buzbee called out Schefter during a press conference for his effort to carry Watson’s water after the grand jury opted not to file criminal charges, saying that “this kind of foolishness is exactly why people do not pursue justice.”

Although Buzbee’s tactics have at times been cartoonish, he’s right. The truth didn’t come out when prosecutors opted not to aggressively  pursue a fight that, under the very high standard of proof beyond a reasonable doubt, they likely would have lost. Judge Robinson, hired jointly by the league and the union, made a ruling as to the truth, as far as the NFL is concerned. Four instances of non-violent sexual assault. “Egregious” misconduct. “Predatory behavior.” Untruthful denials. A total lack of remorse.

Sorry, Deshaun, but the time for having a true reckoning has long since expired. This is nothing more than a Hail Mary aimed at avoiding the punishment that the league has every right to impose. And it will definitely be a lot more than eight games and $5 million.

Like TOM BRADY before him, Florio says Watson has earned extra Justice for not initially accepting his fate.

HOUSTON

QB KYLE ALLEN will miss an opportunity to play this week against the Saints.

Houston Texans quarterback Kyle Allen tested positive for COVID-19 and will miss their preseason opener against the New Orleans Saints on Saturday, a source confirmed to ESPN on Thursday.

Allen is battling Jeff Driskel for the No. 2 quarterback spot. Both are on one-year deals with the Texans. Allen signed a $2.5 million deal after playing for the Washington Commanders for the previous two seasons.

Allen completed 67.9% of his passes for 730 yards and five touchdowns in the six games he played for the Commanders. His best season was in 2019 with the Carolina Panthers, when he threw for 3,322 yards and 17 touchdowns and logged a 5-7 record as a starter.

Starting quarterback Davis Mills is expected to play a couple of series in the preseason opener, according to Texans coach Lovie Smith, and Driskel will take the rest of the snaps.

Pro Football Network was first to report that Allen tested positive.

NEW ENGLAND

Matt Patricia and Joe Judge, a pair of recently-failed head coaches, are the new co-heads of the Patriots offense.  Mike Reiss of ESPN.com:

Matt Patricia and Joe Judge split the offensive playcalling duties in the New England Patriots’ 23-21 loss to the New York Giants in Thursday night’s preseason opener, adding a new wrinkle to a hot-button topic surrounding the team.

Head coach Bill Belichick hasn’t named an official offensive coordinator to replace Josh McDaniels but is primarily leaning on Patricia, whose title is senior football advisor/offensive line coach, and Judge, whose title is offensive assistant/quarterbacks coach.

Patricia called the plays for the opening two series with veteran Brian Hoyer at quarterback Thursday night, then Judge took over when rookie Bailey Zappe entered the game.

“I thought it would be a good opportunity for us to do that,” Belichick said.

Asked if he knows who will call plays when the regular season arrives, Belichick said: “Don’t worry about that. We’ll work it out. … We’re going through a process. Just like everything else on this team.”

Patricia and Judge both coached from the sideline, and when the defense was on the field, Patricia often huddled with the line while Judge was with the quarterbacks.

Hoyer downplayed the playcalling storyline.

“I just listened to my helmet and called the play that was said to me. So whether it’s Matt or Joe or whoever it might be, I’m not concerned about [that]. I’m worried about what defense they’re running and how we’re going to execute the play.”

The Patriots, who rested starting quarterback Mac Jones and most of their starters, finished with 308 net yards of offense.

Hoyer was 5-of-8 for 59 yards with one touchdown in his two series, while Zappe was 19-of-32 for 205 yards with one touchdown and one interception against a Giants defense that was calling all-out blitzes in a game that traditionally doesn’t feature such elements.

Asked his thoughts on how the communication was with Patricia and Judge calling plays, Belichick said: “I didn’t think [it] was a problem. … I thought we were on the ball quickly, had plenty of time to operate. We had to audible a few times and were able to do that. There’s plenty of room for improvement. I’m not saying we’re there yet, but getting there.”

Mike Florio with more on “The Process”:

Patriots coach Bill Belichick has a new pull-string saying, to go along with “on to Cincinnati,” “day-to-day,” and “it’s already been addressed,” and others that aren’t currently coming to mind.

We’re going through a process.

He used that one three times when explaining the fact that two different assistant coaches called offensive plays during Thursday night’s preseason opener, against the Giants.

We’ll defer to the questions and answers on the subject, as distributed by the team after the game.

Q: We saw both Matt Patricia and Joe Judge taking turns on play call duty tonight on the offense. Is that the plan moving forward, having them switch back and forth, and do you plan on naming a single guy or going with both?

BB: Yeah, well, we did this game. We did a lot of things in this game that are going to be beneficial in the long run, whether it was on the coaching staff, playing time, players that played and so forth. That’s all part of the process.

Q: Bill, what were some of the benefits of having Joe and Matt call plays tonight?

BB: I thought it would be a good opportunity for us to do that.

Q: Do you know if one will call plays when the regular season arrives?

BB: Yeah, don’t worry about that. We’ll work it out.

Q: Have you decided?

BB: We’re going through a process. Just like everything else on this team. . . .

Q: You mentioned earlier with the offensive play caller you’re going through a process. What do you need to see —

BB: I don’t need to see anything, just we’re going through a process. Simple as that.

Q: It’s just a little bit of an unusual situation for us that have watched you guys before —

BB: What do you want me to do?

Q: I guess we’re just looking for a little clarity as to why we’re seeing what we’re seeing.

BB: Great. Yeah. Going through a process.

The most logical conclusion is that the six-time Super Bowl-winning head coach wanted to give each one of them a try at calling plays, so that he can analyze their performance — the same way he’d watch film of a player. That would seem to be part of the process.

With Belichick, however, nothing can be ruled out. Maybe the process results in both guys calling plays during the regular season, or perhaps alternating during a given game.

Regardless, an unexpected mystery continues in New England. In 30 days, we’ll see whether it’s Patricia or Judge or both or someone else calling offensive plays in the regular-season opener against the Dolphins.

NEW YORK JETS

The Jets have brought in veteran T DUANE BROWN with T MEKHI BECTON done for 2022.  Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic:

The New York Jets are signing free-agent tackle Duane Brown, a source confirmed to The Athletic, in the wake of news that starting right tackle Mekhi Becton is likely out for the season with a knee injury. Brown will get a two-year deal worth $22 million, according to multiple reports.

Brown, who turns 37 on Aug. 30, spent most of the past five seasons with the Seattle Seahawks after being traded from the Houston Texans in 2017. He’s a five-time Pro Bowler.

Brown has only played left tackle during his career and will likely force George Fant to right tackle. Coach Robert Saleh announced earlier in training camp that Fant would be the team’s starter on the left side.

THIS AND THAT

QB BETRAYAL INDEX

Mike Sando of The Athletic concocts something called the QB Betrayal Index – how were QBs supported or not supported by having a good surrounding cast.  Much edited.

Pair a great quarterback with consistently strong defense/special teams and that team will win Super Bowls, plural. Tom Brady is living proof of it.

Pair a great quarterback with inconsistent or mostly poor defense/special teams and that team might win a Super Bowl, but some will question the quarterback’s ability to get his team over the top consistently. Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees are examples. It’s too early to know whether Patrick Mahomes will join them. Justin Herbert should be watching closely.

Brees and Herbert share more than the playbook Brees’ former position coach, Joe Lombardi, brought to Herbert’s Los Angeles Chargers upon becoming their offensive coordinator last season. The two quarterbacks also know what it’s like to perform at elite levels and still struggle to reach .500 for reasons outside their direct control.

Brees won 45 percent of his starts from 2014-16 despite ranking fourth, fifth and seventh in ESPN’s Total QBR, respectively. His Saints offense ranked first in expected points added (EPA) over that run, according to TruMedia. Herbert won 47 percent of his starts over the past two seasons despite ranking 13th and third in QBR for an offense that ranked sixth in EPA over that span.

The culprit: terrible defense and/or special teams. Brees’ Saints ranked 32nd in combined EPA on defense and special teams from 2014-16. Herbert’s Chargers rank 30th over the past two seasons.

That is how Brees and Herbert rank 1-2 on my “Quarterback Betrayal Index” stacking all 54 quarterbacks with at least 30 combined regular-season and playoff starts over the past decade (2012-21).

The index highlights differences in where these quarterbacks’ teams ranked on offense compared to defense/special teams, using TruMedia’s EPA model. The better a quarterback’s team was on offense and the worse his team was on defense/special teams, the more “betrayed” the quarterback was in the games he started. For example, Brees’ teams ranked second on offense and 51st on defense/special teams in his starts over the past decade, relative to where the other 53 quarterbacks’ teams ranked. Subtracting the defense/special teams ranking from the offense ranking produces a minus-49 differential, making Brees the “most betrayed” quarterback on the index.

The 54 quarterbacks below have a combined 722-1541-9 (.320) record in games when their teams finished with negative combined EPA on defense and special teams. As hard as it is to win these games, Mahomes has won 64 percent of them, best among all these quarterbacks, while Blaine Gabbert has a 1-20 record in those games, worst among the group. It’s illuminating to see where all the QBs fall in between.

1. Drew Brees

OFF 2 | DST 51 | Betrayal Index: -49

W-L: 84-58 (.592)

W-L with negative team DST EPA: 37-49 (.430, ninth best)

The “Bountygate” investigation and punishment dismantled a defensive culture that, while effective on the field, became outdated overnight. Brees could have structured his contracts more favorably to help the Saints build around him, but he was under no obligation to do so.

2. Justin Herbert

OFF 9 | DST 53 | Betrayal Index: -44

W-L: 15-17 (.469)

W-L with negative team DST EPA: 8-15 (.430, 17th best)

The Chargers struggled on defense and/or special teams long before Herbert’s arrival, which is why you’ll be reading about Philip Rivers shortly. With a defensive-minded head coach and an offseason spending spree on defensive pieces, the 2022 outlook should be positive. A tough schedule of opposing quarterbacks will be challenging, however.

3. Tony Romo

OFF 6 | DST 47 | Betrayal Index: -41

W-L: 32-20 (.615)

W-L with negative team DST EPA: 16-18 (.471, seventh best)

Romo’s reputation for failing to win the big games gets some context here. His 32-20 overall mark over the past decade includes 16-2 when the Cowboys finished games with positive combined EPA on defense/special teams. Only Mahomes, Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady had better win rates in those games over the past decade.

3. Matt Ryan

OFF 8 | DST 49 | Betrayal Index: -41

W-L: 81-86 (.485)

W-L with negative team DST EPA: 37-75 (.330, 20th best)

The Falcons never ranked higher than 24th in combined defensive and special-teams EPA in any of Ryan’s final nine seasons with Atlanta. The offense ranked in the top 10 five times during that stretch.

5. Aaron Rodgers

OFF 5 | DST 43 | Betrayal Index: -38

W-L: 105-53-1 (.664)

W-L with negative team DST EPA: 42-44-1 (.489, 5th best)

The last time the Packers ranked among the top 10 in combined defensive and special-teams EPA, they won the Super Bowl. That was after the 2010 season, when they were third. The team has averaged a No. 20 ranking since 2012.

6. Patrick Mahomes

OFF 1 | DST 37 | Betrayal Index: -36

W-L: 58-16 (.784)

W-L with negative team DST EPA: 29-16 (.644, best)

The Chiefs have ranked 18th or better on defense/special teams twice in four seasons with Mahomes as their starter. Those were the two seasons Kansas City reached the Super Bowl. Mahomes’ Kansas City offenses have averaged 9.3 EPA per start, easily the best figure associated with any of the 54 quarterbacks. That’s how Mahomes has gone 29-16 in games his team finished with negative combined EPA on defense and special teams, by far the best win rate among the 54 quarterbacks. The Chiefs are 29-0 when the they finish games with positive combined EPA on defense/special teams. No one else on this list is better than 38-3 (Luck).

6. Robert Griffin III

OFF 18 | DST 54 | Betrayal Index: -36

W-L: 16-27 (.372)

W-L with negative team DST EPA: 10-24 (.294, 28th best)

Griffin’s teams posted negative combined EPA on defense and special teams in 76 percent of his starts, the highest rate for any quarterback listed here. He went 6-3 in his remaining starts, matching the 75 percent overall win rate in those games for the 54 quarterbacks as a whole. Washington ranked last in combined defensive and special-teams EPA across the 2012-14 seasons, when Griffin made all his starts for the team. Griffin then played for Cleveland in 2015, when the Browns ranked 30th.

8. Deshaun Watson

OFF 12 | DST 45 | Betrayal Index: -33

W-L: 29-27 (.518)

W-L with negative team DST EPA: 10-24 (.294, 26th best)

The Texans were a mess around Watson in Houston, which is how they went only 29-27 with him in the lineup.

9. Andrew Luck

OFF 13 | DST 39 | Betrayal Index: -26

W-L: 57-37 (.606)

W-L with negative team DST EPA: 19-34 (.358, 15th best)

The Colts’ lack of support for Luck went beyond the offensive line. The defense also lagged during some of his seasons, although the special-teams EPA was generally pretty good. Luck’s 38-3 record in games when the Colts had positive combined EPA on defense/special teams was the second-best mark behind the 29-0 record for Mahomes in those games.

10. Matthew Stafford

OFF 19 | DST 44 | Betrayal Index: -25

W-L: 77-81-1 (.487)

W-L with negative team DST EPA: 30-62-1 (.328, 21st best)

Expanding beyond the 2012-21 time period to examine Stafford’s full career, minus his injury-shortened 2010 and 2019 seasons, we can say this about his won-lost record: Stafford is 49-32 (.605) in the five seasons when his teams’ combined defensive/special-teams ranking was best, compared to 33-63 (.344) in the other seasons.

11. Philip Rivers

12. Ryan Fitzpatrick

13. Dak Prescott

14. Derek Carr

15. Jameis Winston

16. Baker Mayfield

17. Kirk Cousins

18. Ben Roethlisberger

19. Peyton Manning

20. Ryan Tannehill

20. Colin Kaepernick

22. Carson Palmer

23. Josh McCown

23. Cam Newton

25. Tom Brady

OFF 3 | DST 5 | Betrayal Index: -2

W-L: 138-44 (.758)

W-L with negative team DST EPA: 42-34 (.553, second best)

Brady’s top-five rankings on both offense and defense/special teams over the past decade separate him from Rodgers, Brees and the other great quarterbacks. The glittering record in betrayal games is also notable. His Super Bowl comeback victory against Atlanta qualifies as one of those victories.

26. Jimmy Garoppolo

OFF 10 | DST 12 | Betrayal Index: -2

W-L: 37-16 (.698)

W-L with negative team DST EPA: 12-10 (.553, third best)

The league views Garoppolo as a Tier 3 quarterback who wins largely because of superior offensive scheming paired with a strong defense. It’s interesting to see Garoppolo with a winning record in games his team finished with negative combined EPA on defense and special teams. Those victories include 48-46 against Brees’ Saints in a 2019 game that saw San Francisco win despite finishing minus-20.9 in EPA on defense/special teams.

27. Kyler Murray

28. Teddy Bridgewater

28. Jacoby Brissett

30. Marcus Mariota

30. Mike Glennon

32. Eli Manning

33. Russell Wilson

OFF 15 | DST 7 | Betrayal Index: +8

W-L: 113-60-1 (.652)

W-L with negative team DST EPA: 24-39 (.381, 14th best)

Seattle finished 36 percent of Wilson’s starts with negative combined EPA on defense and special teams. Only Trubisky and Lamar Jackson have had it better by that measure over the past decade.

34. Lamar Jackson

OFF 11 | DST 1 | Betrayal Index: +10

W-L: 38-15 (.717)

W-L with negative team DST EPA: 7-10 (.412, 12th best)

Jackson has gotten greater support from his defense and special teams than any quarterback on this list. He has also won some of the most difficult games. Jackson is 3-3 record in those extreme betrayal games when Baltimore finished with especially bad EPA on defense/special teams (minus-10 or worse). Peyton Manning (5-4) is the only quarterback on this list with a better record in those games over the past decade. Mahomes is 10-11 in those games, followed by Jackson, Herbert (3-4), Burrow (2-3), Brees (16-29), Brady (8-15) and Rodgers (13-26).

35. Jay Cutler

36. Alex Smith

37. Andy Dalton

37. Carson Wentz

39. Tyrod Taylor

40. Josh Allen

OFF 20 | DST 2 | Betrayal Index: +18

W-L: 42-24 (.636)

W-L with negative team DST EPA: 11-14 (.440, eighth best)

Allen has shown he can win a solid percentage of games with less support from his defense and/or special teams. He hasn’t had to do that frequently because Buffalo has generally been very strong in those phases.

40. Blaine Gabbert

42. Jared Goff

43. Daniel Jones

44. Sam Bradford

44. Geno Smith

46. Joe Burrow

OFF 36 | DST 9 | Betrayal Index: +27

W-L: 15-14-1 (.517)

W-L with negative team DST EPA: 5-7 (.417, 10th best)

The Bengals jumped to 13th in offensive EPA last season after ranking 27th in Burrow’s injury-shortened rookie starts. The defense has been Cincy’s strength in his starts overall.

47. Nick Foles

48. Case Keenum

48. Blake Bortles

50. Joe Flacco

51. Brian Hoyer

51. Brock Osweiler

53. Mitchell Trubisky

OFF 40 | DST 3 | Betrayal Index: +37

W-L: 29-23 (.558)

W-L with negative team DST EPA: 4-13 (.235, 36th best)

The Bears went 12-4 in 2018 with Trubisky ranking third in Total QBR, boosted by his own rushing production. Chicago ranked 13th in offensive EPA that season while leading the league in combined EPA on defense/special teams. Chicago ranked among the top 10 in defense/special teams in every season Trubisky started, contributing to his winning record as a starter overall.

54. Sam Darnold

OFF 54 | DST 8 | Betrayal Index: +46

W-L: 17-32 (.347)

W-L with negative team DST EPA: 2-18 (.100, 52nd best)

It’s a little surprising to see how well Darnold’s teams have played in the defense/special teams component, but the Jets and Panthers have had their moments on defense.

2023 QUARTERBACKS

There are at least a couple of open QB slots in 2022 (Cleveland, Seattle) but Dan Graziano of ESPN.com opts to look ahead to how things might look a year from now:

The 2022 offseason was a great one for big-name quarterback movement. Russell Wilson to Denver. Deshaun Watson to Cleveland. Carson Wentz to Washington. Matt Ryan to Indy. Tom Brady to retirement and back. Aaron Rodgers to … well, nowhere, as it turns out, but that was its own fun drama for a while.

It has left us wanting more.

So while we’re excited to get this NFL season started, we can’t help looking beyond it just a little and wondering what the 2023 offseason might offer in terms of quarterback movement. Who will be the disappointments shipped out before their contracts start looking bad? Who will be the big-name vets who want to play elsewhere? Who will be in line for the big extensions and become restless if they don’t get them?

We did this last year — looking at teams with unsettled QB situations and what might happen — and we hit on a few of them. So we’re doing it again. This is a list of teams whose quarterback situations beyond 2022 (if not sooner) are murky for one reason or another along with some predictions on what might happen.

Enjoy. There are more than you’d think.

Atlanta Falcons

Current starter: Marcus Mariota, probably

Signed through: 2023

The Falcons are among the teams that missed out on Deshaun Watson, so they pivoted to Mariota and drafted Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder in the third round. Kind of the same vet/rookie hedge the Pittsburgh Steelers (who we’ll cover below) are pulling. There’s no guaranteed money in Mariota’s deal beyond 2022, so all options will be open in Atlanta — where there’s a chance the Falcons could have a high draft pick.

Most likely outcome: C.J. Stroud (Ohio State) or Bryce Young (Alabama). Yeah, they like Ridder. But if the Falcons are picking first or second in the draft, could they really pass on one of these guys just to give last year’s third-round pick a chance?

Long shot: Ridder takes the job from Mariota during the 2022 season, the Falcons do better than we expect and they keep him as the starter next year, a la Jalen Hurts in Philly.

Baltimore Ravens

Current starter: Lamar Jackson

Signed through: 2022

Jackson is a former league MVP and unquestioned center of the Ravens’ universe. There is no good reason the Ravens should be on this list. However, you’ll note above that he is signed only through 2022. This is the second straight offseason in which Baltimore hoped to have Jackson signed to a contract extension but has (so far) been unable to get it done. Who knows? By the time you read this, he could have that extension and this could be irrelevant. But at the time of this writing, he does not, so we have to include the Ravens.

Most likely outcome: Jackson, by far. Seriously, the most likely outcome is an extension for Jackson before the start of the 2022 season. But if one doesn’t get done, the Ravens can (and surely will) franchise him for 2023 while they continue to work on an extension. It’s very difficult to imagine a scenario in which Jackson is not the Ravens’ starting quarterback in 2023, unless this season is a complete disaster in every way for him and the team.

Long shot: C.J. Stroud. If the Ravens are moving on from Jackson next offseason, odds are they’ve had a horrendous 2022 season and have a high draft pick.

Carolina Panthers

Current starter: Baker Mayfield or Sam Darnold

Signed through: 2022 (Yes, both of them.)

It sounds as if Mayfield is leading the competition with Darnold even though he just got there. But whoever wins this competition has a lot to show if he wants to convince the Panthers to keep him beyond the season. Both guys are on their fifth-year options and eligible for free agency after this season. Carolina tried to get Matthew Stafford last year and tried to get Deshaun Watson this year … they’re on the lookout for the guy, and they’ll keep swinging big until they find him.

Most likely outcome: I guess Mayfield getting a second year, but I don’t know that there’s any way to know what’s “likely” to happen here. There could be a new coach, a new GM — lots of unknowns in Carolina.

Long shot: A trade for a star we don’t yet know will be available. Lamar Jackson, if he doesn’t get a deal done with Baltimore? Kyler Murray, if things go badly in Arizona? Totally spitballing here. Carolina’s QB future beyond 2022 is a complete mystery. To them, too!

Detroit Lions

Current starter: Jared Goff

Signed through: 2024

A lot of people were surprised the Lions didn’t look for a quarterback this offseason. But the way the team viewed it, the draft didn’t offer a ton of enticing options and dealing away picks for a veteran option wasn’t the smartest idea for a team at this stage of its rebuild. Lions GM Brad Holmes was part of the Rams’ front office when they drafted Goff first overall in 2016, so he has history with him and, at least at one time, was a big fan. The Lions decided to give Goff, who’s 27, another year to show whether he could be more than a short-term stopgap. But this is the final year of his contract with any guaranteed money in it, so the Lions are in position to move on in 2023 if they want.

Most likely outcome: Will Levis (Kentucky). The Lions look like they’re pretty strong on both lines, and it’s reasonable to think they’ll show enough improvement that they won’t be back up near the very top of the draft. Levis is pretty well regarded by a lot of quarterback evaluators for his ability to perform without being surrounded by top talent. I don’t know. That sounds like a Dan Campbell kind of thing to me.

Long shot: Goff has a mid-career renaissance and convinces the Lions he’s the guy with whom they want to move forward.

Green Bay Packers

Current starter: Aaron Rodgers

Signed through: 2026

It’s funny, because in some ways, Rodgers was the inspiration for this piece last year — the symbol of what we expected to be a massive 2022 offseason of QB movement — and he stayed put! And he signed a new contract that, as you see above, runs through 2026. So what are the Packers even doing on this list? Well, it’s Rodgers. He’s an unpredictable sort. Who knows what sort of hallucinogenic tea or fancy enema might result in a change of mind from Rodgers about the rest of his career? What if the Packers win the Super Bowl and he decides that’s enough for him? He’s 38 years old, and the guy sitting behind him was the team’s 2020 first-round pick. All I’m saying is, when it comes to Rodgers, if you think you know, you’re wrong.

Most likely outcome: Rodgers returns for 2023. He’s scheduled to earn almost $60 million in 2023, which you would think would provide some incentive. And he seems pretty determined to keep Jordan Love on the bench.

Long shot: Rodgers retires, and Love takes over, becoming a starter in his fourth season, just like Rodgers did.

Houston Texans

Current starter: Davis Mills

Signed through: 2024

The Texans are going to give 2021 third-round pick Mills a shot, and there are more than a few people around the league who think he might be able to take the job and run with it. Houston has little to lose by trying. Pro Football Focus recently ranked its roster the worst in the entire league, and there is little reason to believe a young QB’s growing pains will be the reason the Texans miss the playoffs. No reason not to see what Mills can do, but if he doesn’t show he can be the guy, there’s not a lot of downside in moving on and looking to upgrade in 2023.

Most likely outcome: A high rookie draft pick. The Texans could have the top pick in the draft, which means they could be the team choosing between Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud and Alabama’s Bryce Young. They also have Cleveland’s first-round pick, which could also be a high pick depending on how many games Deshaun Watson has to miss. So with two (potentially high) first-rounders, Houston would be in a position to move up to get its QB of the future in next year’s draft if needed.

Long shot: Mills shows enough, and the team has enough success, to convince the Texans to give him another year.

Indianapolis Colts

Current starter: Matt Ryan

Signed through: 2023

Another year, another starting QB in Indianapolis, where the Colts haven’t had the same Week 1 starter in consecutive years since before Andrew Luck’s shocking retirement right before the start of the 2019 season. Ryan comes via trade from Atlanta, and the Colts feel lucky to have him. They traded 2021 starter Carson Wentz to Washington before they knew who they were getting to replace him, which is a risky move that tells you how they felt about Wentz by the end of the season. Ryan is 37 and six years removed from his MVP season, but Indy believes he has plenty in the tank and is just what their otherwise strong roster needs to help get it over the hump.

Most likely outcome: Ryan. Hey, at some point they’re going to start the same guy twice in a row. Ryan has $12 million of his 2023 salary guaranteed already, and the rest of his $21.7 million guarantees at the start of the 2023 league year, along with a $7.5 million roster bonus. The Colts would have to be as dissatisfied with Ryan as they were with Wentz to ship him out by then, or else he’d have to retire as Philip Rivers did after his only year in Indy. Either of those things is possible, but the most likely outcome, which is what this paragraph is for, is that Ryan plays for the Colts again at 38.

Long shot: Jimmy Garoppolo. This assumes Ryan does retire as Rivers did and the Colts aren’t in position to draft a long-term answer. Let’s also say, in this imaginary long-shot scenario, that Garoppolo ends up playing half the season or more for Cleveland, which has Deshaun Watson coming back in time for 2023, and Garoppolo does a good enough job that someone wants him as their starter. He’d be a perfect fit for a team that changes QBs every year and isn’t ready to go into rebuilding mode.

Miami Dolphins

Current starter: Tua Tagovailoa

Signed through: 2023 (plus team option for 2024)

You know the story at this point. This is something of a make-or-break year for Tagovailoa, who was the No. 5 overall draft pick in 2020 but still hasn’t solidified himself as the surefire long-term answer for Miami. The Dolphins just got docked a draft pick, fined and had their owner suspended for a cloak-and-dagger effort to replace Tagovailoa with Tom Brady. They were still working this time last year to get Deshaun Watson. First-year head coach Mike McDaniel, plus an infusion of offensive line and wide receiver talent, have Tagovailoa in a good position from which to succeed. If he can’t, the Dolphins will have a tough choice next May on whether to pick up his fifth-year option for 2024.

Most likely outcome: Tagovailoa. Call me an optimist, but the guy was the No. 5 pick. I’m not ready to say he doesn’t have the talent to be a franchise quarterback. McDaniel might be the right guy to get the most out of him, and Tyreek Hill gives him a unique target and advantage he has not had during his career. Add in the fact that the lost draft pick for the Brady/Sean Payton tampering incident reduces Miami’s ability to find Tagovailoa’s replacement in next year’s draft, and the bet here is that the Dolphins see enough in 2022 to keep after it with Tagovailoa in 2023.

Long shot: Brady. We know they want him, right? Stephen Ross doesn’t strike me as the kind of guy to give up on something like this. Brady is a free agent again at year’s end and can pick his destination if he doesn’t decide to retire for real this time. Don’t rule it out, is all.

Minnesota Vikings

Current starter: Kirk Cousins

Signed through: 2023

Cousins will turn 34 later this month, so he has some years left, but there’s a new front office and coaching staff in Minnesota, and they at least thought about switching up at quarterback this offseason before giving Cousins another extension. This one includes $30 million in guaranteed money in 2023, which likely encourages both parties to run it back a year from now. But, in the current market, it’s not a number that would discourage another team from trading for him. And again, under new management there, you never know.

Most likely outcome: Cousins returns for one more season. For the reasons I listed above and because he’s pretty good! If you’re going to get rid of your quarterback, you’d better have an upgrade ready.

Long shot: Baker Mayfield. I don’t know. I couldn’t come up with a good one, and I don’t think the Vikings will have a high enough pick to draft a long-term difference-maker. So I picked Mayfield because he was in Cleveland when Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah was there. I have no idea if Adofo-Mensah likes him. But I had to put a name here.

New Orleans Saints

Current starter: Jameis Winston

Signed through: 2023

Winston is back as the starter after an injury-shortened 2021 season, and at age 28 he’s hoping to write a brilliant second chapter of his career in New Orleans. It could absolutely happen if he stays healthy. The Saints appear to have a strong team around him, with a championship-caliber defense and the likely return of former No. 1 wide receiver Michael Thomas to help him out. But there’s no guaranteed money left on Winston’s contract after 2022, and all options are open for both him and the Saints (who tried to get Deshaun Watson before he went to Cleveland and went back to Winston only once that didn’t work out).

Most likely outcome: Winston does well and signs a longer-term extension with the team.

Long shot: Russell Wilson, if the Broncos don’t extend him. New Orleans was on Wilson’s list of four teams a year ago. Remember that? Seems like so long ago now …

New York Giants

Current starter: Daniel Jones

Signed through: 2022

The Giants declined to pick up the fifth-year option on Jones’ contract for 2023, so the No. 6 overall pick from the 2019 draft is eligible for free agency after this season. With a new coaching staff and front office in place, it is unquestionably a make-or-break year for Jones, whose career has been beset by injuries, turnovers and coaching changes. Can head coach Brian Daboll bring some stability to the situation and do for Jones what Daboll was able to do for Josh Allen in Buffalo?

Most likely outcome: A draft pick. There are going to be quality QB prospects in next year’s draft that weren’t in April’s. C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, Will Levis … If Jones flops and the Giants finish with another high pick, they’ll be in a draft spot from which Daboll and GM Joe Schoen can select his replacement.

Long shot: Mitch Trubisky. He was Allen’s backup in Buffalo last year, and by all accounts, Daboll enjoyed the experience and saw something in the former No. 2 overall pick. Pittsburgh should, if all goes to plan, have moved on to 2021 first-rounder Kenny Pickett by then. If the Giants don’t like where they are in the draft, Trubisky could be an appealing and familiar option for Daboll in the meantime.

Philadelphia Eagles

Current starter: Jalen Hurts

Signed through: 2023

A second-round pick in 2020, Hurts supplanted incumbent starter Carson Wentz late in that season and started the whole 2021 season for the Eagles. It hasn’t been perfect by any means, but Hurts showed the Eagles enough last year to earn another shot in 2022 to prove he can be their franchise QB. Philly has built a strong-looking team around him, with depth on defense, a good offensive line and an exciting blend of skill at receiver and tight end. If Hurts can take the next step in his own development, the Eagles could easily be a playoff team in 2022. They’re already a popular pick to steal the NFC East away from the defending champion Cowboys. However, if they come out of this season unconvinced on Hurts, they have two first-round picks with which to find a replacement.

Most likely outcome: Hurts. Come on, if I’m going to believe in Tua Tagovailoa surviving his make-or-break year, I have to bet on Hurts, too, right? I’ve had plenty of evaluators tell me they don’t think Hurts has the ability as a passer to last long term. But I just think the young man has the right kind of stuff inside of him to prove people wrong and succeed where others think he can’t. I believe he showed more improvement in 2021 than the Eagles expected and believe he can do it again in 2022. Plus, they have a good team that’s poised to have the kind of year that doesn’t make them want to make major changes. Call me a wide-eyed optimist, but it’s August. Isn’t that the time for NFL optimism?

Long shot: Russell Wilson. Yeah, it’s a real long shot, and it assumes A) Wilson’s first year in Denver doesn’t go well, and B) the new owners don’t want to sign him to the kind of long-term deal he’s seeking. Philly has multiple first-rounders to deal, and if Hurts flames out, I would expect Howie Roseman to take a big, big swing at a replacement. I thought about putting Lamar Jackson here, but I thought that would set off even more of a firestorm, so I didn’t do it. Or did I?

Pittsburgh Steelers

Current starter: Mitch Trubisky, probably

Signed through: 2023

The Steelers’ effort to replace Ben Roethlisberger likely begins with Trubisky, who appears to be the leader of a QB competition that also includes Mason Rudolph and first-round rookie Kenny Pickett. Pittsburgh signed Trubisky to a two-year, $14.285 million contract, but next year’s $8 million salary is not guaranteed. So he must show something in order to keep the job, even if he does win it and hold it all year. This is an unsettled situation, and it’s not out of the question that all three of the guys listed above play QB for the Steelers at some point this season. It’s far from guaranteed that any of them will in 2023.

Most likely outcome: Pickett. Either he takes over the starting job at some point during the season, or the 2023 offseason gets him ready to be the 2023 starter. The Steelers picked him in the first round because they think he can be their franchise quarterback, and they’re going to have to find out sooner rather than later whether they’re right.

Long shot: Trubisky plays well enough to get an extension and keep Pickett on the bench. Trubisky’s mobility should help him overcome a shaky offensive line to some extent, and if he stays healthy and leads the Steelers to the playoffs, it’s not impossible that he could keep the job.

Seattle Seahawks

Current starter: Geno Smith or Drew Lock

Signed through: 2022 (both of them)

The Seahawks ended up having to trade Russell Wilson to the Broncos this offseason when it became clear they weren’t going to meet his contract extension demands next year. They got back Lock as part of that trade and already had Smith on the roster. Seattle didn’t pursue an upgrade, though there are plenty of people in the league who believe the Seahawks are ready to pounce when and if the 49ers end up cutting Jimmy Garoppolo. We will see. Regardless, the future at QB in Seattle is a complete unknown, and the Seahawks have two first-round picks next year (theirs and Denver’s) with which to address it.

Most likely outcome: C.J. Stroud or Bryce Young. We’re forecasting the Seahawks to be among the worst teams in the league and put themselves in position to draft whomever they believe is the best QB in the 2023 draft.

Long shot: They snatch up Garoppolo after the Niners cut him and his play persuades them to keep him as their long-term starter, tormenting 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan forever for replacing Garoppolo with Trey Lance.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Current starter: Tom Brady

Signed through: 2022

You might not have heard this, but Brady just turned 45 and therefore will be 46 when the 2023 season starts (#math). He already retired this past offseason, even though he thought better of it a month later and decided to come back. Regardless of how long he does or does not want to keep playing, Brady’s deal with the Bucs voids in March and he’d be free to go elsewhere. Sounds like Miami is a place in which he has had at least some interest, no?

Most likely outcome: Jameis Winston balls out in New Orleans, Brady retires or goes elsewhere, the Saints don’t offer Winston what he wants, and the Bucs bring back their former No. 1 overall pick for a triumphant return as Brady’s successor! All right, maybe it’s not “likely,” but it’s certainly not impossible. And it’s pretty cool!

Long shot: Brady re-signs and sticks around to win a ninth Super Bowl title. (You see what I did there, right?)

Tennessee Titans

Current starter: Ryan Tannehill

Signed through: 2023

Tannehill has revitalized his career since moving from Miami and helped lead the Titans to the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs last year. But he also threw three interceptions in a crushing playoff loss to the Bengals, spoiling a nine-sack effort from his defense and raising questions about whether he’s the guy to lead Tennessee to the Super Bowl. He has two years left on his contract, but his 2023 salary of $27 million is not guaranteed. The Titans’ 2022 roster has major question marks at wide receiver and on the offensive line. The team drafted quarterback prospect Malik Willis in the third round of April’s draft. There are a few things working against Tannehill’s long-term future in Tennessee.

Most likely outcome: One more year of Tannehill in 2023. I thought about it, and you can imagine the Titans taking a step back. But they’re so well coached, I have a hard time imagining them bottoming all the way out. Twenty-seven million dollars is a pretty good price for a starting quarterback in 2023, so it wouldn’t be too surprising for the Titans to run it back with Tannehill even if they have a disappointing season. Willis was thought of as a longer-range project by most people ahead of the draft, so he might not even be ready to take over.

Long shot: Willis. He has the raw ability and the makeup. It’s just a matter of honing his skills. Perhaps he comes on more quickly than expected. Perhaps the Titans do bottom out and decide to rebuild around the kid.

Washington Commanders

Current starter: Carson Wentz

Signed through: 2024

Washington is another one of these teams in the QB wilderness, just taking swing after swing in a so-far-futile effort to get it right. Can the Commanders unlock something in Wentz that the Eagles and Colts have decided, in successive seasons, they could not? Stranger things have happened, I guess, and Wentz won’t turn 30 until the end of the year, so he might not be a totally lost cause. But he’s also far from a sure thing, and none of his salary is guaranteed beyond this season. Washington absolutely has to be on this list of teams with questionable QB situations.

Most likely outcome: Jimmy Garoppolo. If you don’t buy the idea of a Wentz bounce-back, and you don’t imagine fifth-rounder Sam Howell being ready to take over in time for next year, you have to think Washington’s looking for a steady, shorter-term solution. Garoppolo almost certainly will be looking for a starting opportunity.

Long shot: Howell, potentially? I’ve had evaluators tell me they thought he was the best of the QB prospects in April’s (admittedly underwhelming) draft, so who knows?