AROUND THE NFL
Daily Briefing
NFC EAST
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WASHINGTON
Rumors of a power struggle in Washington. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:
Dysfunction always finds a way.
At a time when the Washington Football Team is trying its damnedest to turn the page on troubled times, trouble lingers for the franchise. According to the Wall Street Journal, the team’s minority owners are “pressuring” owner Daniel Snyder to sell his majority stake in the team.
Per the report, Snyder has no intention to sell. The resulting impasse surely has contributed to recent suggestions by Snyder in court filings that one of the minority partners, Dwight Schar, has tried to discredit Snyder by encouraging current and/or former employees to make allegations about him.
PFT first reported last month that Schar and FedEx founder Fred Smith had been trying to sell their stakes in the team. Earlier that day, we suggested that the minority partners may want to see Snyder gone. According to the Wall Street Journal, multiple buyers have passed based on the inability to secure an option to eventually purchase a controlling interest in the team.
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NFC SOUTH
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NEW ORLEANS
TE JARED COOK is excited about his second, hopefully healthy, year with the Saints. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:
In the days leading up to the 2019 season, there were a lot of high hopes about what tight end Jared Cook would do as a member of the Saints Offense but it took some time for things to get going.
Cook was limited to 15 catches in the first half of the season as injuries to him and quarterback Drew Brees got in the way of a smooth start to his time in New Orleans. Things got better once everyone was healthy, however.
Cook closed the year with 28 catches for 537 yards and seven touchdowns in the final eight games and he thinks having a year of experience under his belt will make it “a lot easier” for him to hit the ground running with Brees this time.
“We’ve kind of felt that so far in practice, and hopefully it just continues to get better,” Cook said, via Luke Johnson of NOLA.com. “And once the games start, it continues to grow and hits a lot faster than last year.”
The Saints added wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders to flesh out their skill position players and a successful transition for him alongside the Cook of the second half would make for a tough unit to stop.
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TAMPA BAY
Some insight from Joe Montana on why QB TOM BRADY is wearing a pewter helmet. John Breech of CBSSports.com:
Although Brady hasn’t been very forthcoming publicly with details surrounding his exit, he did apparently share one big reason about why he wanted out of New England during a conversation with Joe Montana at Super Bowl LIV. Both quarterbacks were in Miami for the game to help the NFL celebrate its 100th anniversary, and at some point during the week, Brady had a chat with his childhood hero.
“I spoke to Tom while we were back at the Super Bowl,” Montana said this week on “The Jake Asman Show” in Houston. “I don’t think he was happy with the way things were progressing there, and his ability to have input, and I think that was a big decision for him to make, to leave there.”
Specifically speaking, Brady apparently wasn’t happy with the fact that the Patriots would ask for his offensive input, but then totally ignore it, which led to a “beef” between the two sides.
“I think that was one of his beefs up there,” Montana told USA Today Sports. “He told me that, ‘They’d ask my advice, I tell them, and then they don’t take it.’ I think he would like a little bit of the input and I think they’ll probably let him have that [in Tampa Bay], especially with the success that he’s had.”
Montana’s story is interesting, if only because it gives us a rare look into Brady’s private mindset. Remember, the conversation between the two men happened in early February, which means it came roughly six weeks before Brady ended up announcing that he wouldn’t be returning to the Patriots (that announcement came on March 17). Based on his conversation with Montana, it sounds like Brady’s mind was mostly made up about leaving before Super Bowl LIV even kicked off on Feb. 2.
If this is one of the reasons why Brady decided to leave, it actually makes a lot of sense and it also meshes well with a lot of other speculation out there. One report from ESPN back in March said that Brady left because he was tired of dealing with Bill Belichick after 20 years. Another report — from NBC Sports Boston — suggested Brady left because he didn’t feel wanted and that he didn’t feel like the Patriots were in it for the long haul, which is something the quarterback hinted at in an article that he wrote for the Player’s Tribune. It’s also believed that Brady was getting frustrated with the fact that the Patriots weren’t adding any playmakers on offense even though he was giving them the financial room to make a few moves by signing below-market deals.
If Brady was dealing with all of those things, it’s easy to think he might have been able to look past it if he had more control of the offense, but according to Montana, the Patriots weren’t giving him that control.
In the end, Brady left because Brady wanted to leave, which is something Patriots owner Robert Kraft made clear in March.
“If he wanted to be here, we would have put a deal together,” Robert Kraft told The Boston Globe in March.
The name of OC Josh McDaniels does not appear in the article, but we wonder…
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A progress report on the Buccaneers from Coach Bruce Arians per Jenna Laine of ESPN.com:
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers open up against the New Orleans Saints one month from Thursday, but have yet to go offense versus defense in practice. They’ll do so Friday, with padded practices coming Monday.
How concerned is coach Bruce Arians about star quarterback Tom Brady missing an offseason and getting such a late start with his offense?
“Yeah he’s probably the least of my worries right now,” Arians said Thursday. “He’s where he needs to be. We need to get more live reps. Blocking, tackling — this game’s a blocking and tackling game. Fourteen days to block and tackle. Is that enough? And I hate tackling ourselves. We don’t want to road-block ourselves, but we’ve gotta get ready to play a game. I think that’s the biggest disadvantage — not being in pads and not playing fast.”
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NFC WEST
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SEATTLE
Meet CB KEMAH SIVERAND, the poster child for social irresponsibility in the age of Covid-19. Brady Henderson of ESPN.com:
The Seattle Seahawks waived rookie cornerback Kemah Siverand earlier this week after he was caught on video trying to sneak a woman into the team’s hotel, a source confirmed to ESPN.
The NFL Network first reported the circumstances of Siverand’s release, noting that the woman was wearing Seahawks gear in an attempt to disguise herself as a player.
Coach Pete Carroll’s No. 1 rule is to “always protect the team.” On Wednesday, he praised the Seahawks’ veteran leaders for sending the right message to the locker room about the need to be disciplined while preparing for a season amid the coronavirus pandemic.
The Seahawks have placed only one player on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Carroll confirmed on Wednesday that it was the result of a false positive test with wide receiver John Ursua, who has since been reactivated.
Siverand went undrafted out of Oklahoma State and received a $2,000 signing bonus from Seattle. That was tied for the third-smallest bonus among the Seahawks’ 17 undrafted free agents.
Siverand’s agent declined to comment on the matter when reached via text by ESPN.
He was on the lowest rung of the team ladder. Wonder how high up Carroll’s lack of tolerance for such behavior would have gone?
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AFC WEST
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KANSAS CITY
Thursday was a big day for tight end signings as the Chiefs lock up TE TRAVIS KELCE. Kevin Patra of NFL.com:
NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported Thursday that the Kansas City Chiefs have agreed to terms with Kelce on a four-year, $57 million extension that will keep him in K.C. for the next six seasons, per sources informed of the situation. The deal is worth between $14M and $15M per year in new money average, he added.
Turning 31 in October, Kelce had two years left on his contract with salary cap figures of $11.2 million in 2020 and $9 million in 2021. The extension will take him well into the back half of his 30s.
Averaging $9.53 million on his five-year extension signed in 2016, the new deal will pay the star tight end closer in line to his worth.
While Kittle’s deal came in at a $15 million per year mark, Kelce landed at $14.25 million per year in new money average. Given that Kelce is five years older than Kittle, it’s a great chunk of change on a third contract for the K.C. tight end.
The tight end market has been woefully behind the worth of the top players at the position – thanks largely to Rob Gronkowski taking a below market deal early on in his career. Kelce getting a deserved leap in payment is a positive development for the entire position group. Expect Zach Ertz in Philly to be the next TE in line for a big extension. Perhaps after all three are paid, the top of the TE market won’t look so far behind other positions.
The Chiefs, during a pandemic, continue to lock down key starters after signing Patrick Mahomes and Chris Jones to massive long-term deals.
A key target for Mahomes, Kelce is a pass-catching tight end who can box out corners and safeties and outrun linebackers. The five-time Pro Bowler and two-time first-team All-Pro player has generated four straight seasons with at least 1,000 receiving yards. In two years with Mahomes at the helm, Kelce has generated 2,565 receiving yards and 15 TDs. These are wide receiver numbers.
Now Mahomes will have one of his favorite targets to throw to for years to come.
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AFC EAST
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BUFFALO
The Bills give big money to LT DION DAWKINS. Kevin Patra of NFL.com:
The Buffalo Bills locked down Josh Allen’s blindside blocker.
The Bills announced Thursday they’ve signed left tackle Dion Dawkins to a four-year contract extension. NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported the deal is worth $60 million with $34 million guaranteed.
The 2017 second-round pick was entering the final year of his rookie contract. Now he’s tied to Buffalo through the 2024 season.
“It just means that it’s time to go earn it. It’s definitely time to go out there and earn every penny of it,” Dawkins told reporters of what signing the multi-year pact meant to him. “It just gives me that much more respect and it just shows the respect they had for myself that, listen, this is our franchise left tackle and Dion Dawkins is a piece that we can build around and we can continue to win games with.”
Dawkins has started 43 games in his three years in Buffalo and has rounded into a solid blind-side pass blocker. The Bills believe the stalwart who has never missed a game in his career will continue to grow into the position. In a league constantly searching for quality tackle play, the Bills locking up Dawkins was a no-brainer.
The extension comes in a shade under Nate Solder’s deal in New York, making Dawkins the fifth-highest-paid left tackle in the NFL and the seventh-highest-paid overall offensive tackle, per Over The Cap.
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ESPN.com give Bills co-owner Kim Pegula a forum to talk about diversity:
In the wake of a report by The Washington Post that revealed allegations by 17 women of sexual harassment and verbal abuse that left the Washington Football Team organization reeling, ESPN sought perspective from prominent female executives within the NFL.
In her own words, as relayed to ESPN’s John Keim, these are Pegula’s thoughts on the importance of diversity and working to improve an organization’s culture, gleaned from her experience with the Bills and Sabres:
Why diversity matters
When people ask me why diversity matters, I tell them to spend a week with my husband and me. Terry and I are diverse in age (18 years), ethnicity (white/Asian) as well as a variety of other traits (I like chocolate/he likes vanilla). But those differences, when combined, are our biggest strength. They’ve gotten us through 27 years of marriage, raising three kids and leading multiple businesses. It’s served us well having two owners to look at situations differently, hear different points of view and bring different ideas to the table. Sometimes we arrive at the same answer, sometimes we don’t, and sometimes we are both wrong. After all, no matter how diverse we are, we are both still human.
Two owners of professional sports teams aren’t what many would think of as an example of “diversity,” but I’ve come to appreciate the impact that our unique version of diversity in thought, experience, gender, race and age can have on an organization.
I recently shared with our staff how we rate as a diverse workforce and it was far from where I believe we should be. While we have a lot of work ahead of us, we are taking deliberate steps to be a better and more diverse organization. We’ve started by listening to and learning from our Black employees at staff-wide town halls and facilitating Diversity and Inclusion Luncheons, seeking to create open dialogue across our companies to empower our employees to change our process and policies to better reflect our fan base and our country.
Diversity matters, quite simply, because the world we live in is diverse. Our fans are diverse, our players are diverse, our ownership is diverse, and we need that diversity of thought and background reflected in our organizations as we try each day to become better.
It starts at the top
We’ve all heard the phrase that culture starts at the top. I’ve certainly seen how being both a minority and a female owner in the NFL has positively affected the Bills. Before Terry and I bought the team in 2014 there were 30 full-time female employees at the Bills, and only three of them were in football. Many of those positions were in administrative roles. Currently the Bills have 50 full-time female employees, including five full-time and 10 interns on the football side, dedicated to working directly with players in key roles. I can’t take all credit for the growth, but I do believe a female presence in football meetings, representing the organization and being visible as a key decision-maker is beneficial.
But let’s not forget that the men in our organization have to play an important role in advancing women within predominantly male industries. At the Bills, it started with Terry encouraging me to participate in football meetings — from postgame discussions, to draft interviews and scouting meetings. It’s continued with our head coaches, who have consistently provided opportunities to women in coaching like Kathryn Smith [in 2016 with Buffalo she became the first woman to serve as a full-time NFL assistant], Phoebe Schecter [a full-season intern] and Callie Brownson [now chief of staff for the Cleveland Browns]. Now women are a part of the equipment staff, sports performance, athletic training, nutrition, player development and player personnel departments. I like to think that including women across all areas of football has made it feel like more of the norm than the exception to our players and staff.
The league has also added the extra support that helped bring women to build our team. The NFL has a champion in Samantha Rapoport, who in her role as Senior Director of Diversity and Inclusion for the league has been instrumental in connecting women whose passion is to work in football with clubs looking to add skilled women to their staff. The NFL Women’s Careers in Football Forum at the NFL combine was one of her initiatives that connected coaches and GMs across the league with women looking for face time with key decision-makers. I had an opportunity to speak with these women this past year along with Tampa Bay Buccaneers owner Darcie Glazer Kassewitz. The women wanted to know, “how do I get my foot in the door?” My advice to them was to build relationships and networks, not just with women, but also with men and to make the most of opportunities such as this forum.
While there is still a lot of room for improvement, I’m encouraged to see the progress women have made in football. In the four years since the forum began, 97 women earned opportunities with the NFL, college football and the Alliance of American Football as a direct result. This is proof that when ownership, club executives and the league work together with focused intention, real advancement can be made.
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THIS AND THAT
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COPING WITH CORONA
The Big Ten’s decision to keep football and soccer players from playing this fall continues to be confounding, secretive and infuriating. Joe Kinsey of Outkick.com on how some Michigan State students will be competing on athletic fields, just not the scholarship athletes.
The Big Ten can postpone its fall sports and break the hearts of student-athletes and fans across the league, but conference commissioner Kevin Warren can’t take away all the fun on campus this fall. Michigan State’s still scheduled to have an intramural season. Ross Winter, MSU’s Assistant Director of Recreational Sports and Fitness Services, confirms to Outkick that the school is planning to have a fall intramural season – minus flag football.
Winter sent out the following message to students on July 31 and he confirms it still stands today:
Hello Everyone,
A quick update and a call for survey responses to gauge your feelings about IM Sports during Fall semester 2020.
First, we are planning to offer IM Sports activities to the fullest extent possible as permitted by University health officials. Second, we have been in the planning stages for quite some time, and have edited those plans over and over, which brings us to where we are today.
The IM Sports program will look different than it has in the past. Most, if not all, activities will be played outdoors. Facial coverings will be required, games will be spaced out to prevent large crowds, equipment will be sanitized, shared equipment will be avoided, and our IM Sports staff will be tasked with maintaining new safety standards.
Finally, to gauge your feelings, and to help us as we finalize our preparations, please complete this survey. Your responses will be extremely valuable in our efforts to offer you the IM Sports program that is so beneficial to your experience at MSU.
Thanks for everything. We’ll see you soon. Go Green!
The decision was announced by Commissioner Kevin Warren, but it remains unclear whether he is just a front man for the Big Ten’s gaggle of “academic” presidents – or whether he actively pleaded and spearheaded the cancellation.
Bob Wojnowski of the Detroit News touches on the tip of the iceberg of simmering resentment of so many lives altered on such vague grounds as “uncertainty.”
They said it’s all about player safety, about science and uncertainty and the medical experts’ recommendations. Big Ten leaders climbed to the highest moral ground when they postponed football and all fall sports in the hope of playing in the spring, and it indeed might prove to be the right thing to do.
But was it done for the right reasons at the right time? It’s generally foolish to argue against science and safety during a pandemic, except this is about more than that. This is a power play lacking transparency and any semblance of a real plan. It’s good to have a healthy fear of COVID-19, but this also is fear of liability and fear of losing status in the academic hierarchy.
The Big Ten made the unilateral, even arrogant, decision to halt fall football before any other conference, a mere six days after it unveiled its schedule. The presidents and chancellors, and commissioner Kevin Warren, ditched their measured approach and basically blindsided their members without sufficiently answering two little questions: Why now? What now?
What if three other Power 5 conferences — SEC, ACC, Big-12 — don’t follow the lead of the Big Ten and Pac-12? I honestly don’t think the Big Ten believes that’s possible, but those conferences are pushing ahead, at least for now. If they play this fall and pull it off safely, the Big Ten will be severely damaged, financially and competitively, in recruiting and exposure.
There’s no unity, little cooperation and little coherent communication in college football. (Huh, sounds like a country we know). The 10 conferences operate on their own terms with their own agendas, and NCAA president Mark Emmert buys his clothes from the Empty Suit Wearhouse.
That’s why many in the Big Ten, from coaches to athletic directors to student-athletes, are furious. So are some parents, who considered their kids safe. I get the frustration. This is devastating, a historic event that could forever damage one of America’s great pastimes. Programs have tried to do the right things, and the majority were following the strictest protocols. When there were breaches or outbreaks of the virus, they were handled and workouts resumed.
Michigan football’s last 353 COVID-19 tests were negative. And yet without warning from president Mark Schlissel, and no discussion with Warren, it was over. What happened to the flexibility woven into the schedule that could push the start to Sept. 26 or later? There was time for more educating, more testing, more incentive for athletes to follow the rules. The timing was suspicious, even capricious, leaving coaches and athletes feeling ignored.
It was so clumsy, the Big Ten wouldn’t say whether the 14-school vote was unanimous (clearly, it wasn’t). Jim Harbaugh, Ohio State’s Ryan Day and others expressed supreme disappointment. Players took to social media to rail at the presidents. Nebraska took it one dopey step farther with Scott Frost suggesting the Cornhuskers might play somewhere else this fall, which has no chance of happening.
The high-minded types will click their tongues and say, “Oh please, it’s only a game.” Then can athletes click their tongues and say, “Oh please, it’s only a semester, why are you bringing thousands of students back to campus?” I understand football presents more dangers than a half-filled classroom. But it doesn’t present more dangers than a half-filled bar or a fully filled house party. Don’t tell the players it’s “only” their athletic and academic futures at stake. Don’t tell that to the people who make their livelihoods off sports.
This is a battle that never had to happen, pitting academia against athletics, and it mirrors our sadly fractured nation. In the absence of real leadership – from the top down – many people draw their opinions directly from Facebook, or Twitter, or Uncle Eddie who found a medical study that no one else is talking about.
The White House was ridiculously late to push for social-distancing and mask-wearing. Many citizens were too selfish to accept guidelines. Many young people were too clueless to recognize they probably shouldn’t flood the bars and beaches, and they aren’t immune.
Because so much has gone wrong during the pandemic, nobody trusts anybody, and you can’t ignore the role of politics in this. It’s a different climate, in a lot of ways, down South, where they plan to play.
I do trust the Big Ten presidents have players’ health interests in mind. They also have the universities’ legal interests in mind. Schools couldn’t ask amateur athletes to waive their rights to litigate if they got sick. In a way, the “We Are United” movement – largely involving players from the Big Ten and Pac-12 — may have forced a quicker decision. Players demanded stricter testing guidelines and fairer treatment, and threatened boycotts. By the time others spoke out about their desire to play, it was too late.
If this was just about safety, could the Big Ten truly justify holding a spring season and returning again in the fall? Not many coaches or health experts think it’s prudent to ask college athletes to play upwards of 20 football games in a year.
Former Ohio State coach Urban Meyer put it bluntly: “No chance. I don’t see that happening. In my very strong opinion, the body is not made to play two seasons in one calendar year.”
There’s no guarantee the Big Ten will even try. But it has to keep hopes up, especially if the SEC and others play. At least the conference was wise enough to allow players to continue using training facilities. It never made a lick of sense to assume they’d be safer outside of the program structure. As for the concern that the risk grows when students return to campus, that’s a sketchy assumption. Many students will stay home and opt for online classes, and the lure of bars and parties is just as strong in the summer, and athletes seem to be handling it.
Again, you can dismiss these arguments and simply say you can’t play football in a pandemic. Hard to push against that. But don’t downplay the detrimental effects, the loss of revenue, the disbanding of minor sports, the growing competitive imbalance between the SEC and the Big Ten. If the SEC plays — again, big IF — it absolutely will affect recruiting, as if that disparity couldn’t get any larger.
Scholarship limits will have to be radically adjusted and eligibility rules will be confusing, although I doubt there’d be a flood of transfers. But more top players likely would opt out of a spring season to avoid injury just a few weeks before the NFL draft. And please, don’t act like football isn’t important to many. I don’t see any 100,000-seat classrooms in Ann Arbor or Columbus.
Warren tried his best to sound calm in the face of unprecedented tumult.
“This doesn’t mean we’re giving up forever,” Warren said. “We’re going to continually have to gather information, there’s just so much uncertainty. The questions we asked two weeks ago were answered, but then new questions arise.”
One of the new questions came from the Big Ten’s and Pac-12’s medical advisory committees, which pointed to troubling — although still scant — data that COVID-19 can lead to heart problems. Meanwhile, the ACC, SEC and Big-12 are unfazed by the Big Ten’s quick reversal. It’d be nice if these conferences would share what they know, or think they know, wouldn’t it?
SEC commissioner Greg Sankey said he looked forward to hearing what went into the Big Ten’s thinking. Duke infectious disease expert Dr. Cameron Wolfe, chairman of the ACC medical advisory group, reportedly told Sports Business Daily that he believed the fall season could be conducted safely.
There’s that gap nobody seems capable of closing, between science and safety, risk and reward, agendas and concerns. Without a unified plan, everybody loses. If the SEC, ACC and Big-12 successfully play, the Big Ten and Pac-12 lose. If fall football fails, everybody loses again.
It’s a divide too wide, maybe impossible to cross as long as the virus haunts us. These conferences include some of the finest universities and smartest people in the world, and yet during this crisis, there’s still no evidence anyone knows what to do.
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CHIP BANKS SHOT
The former NFL LB is on the wrong end of a bullet. TMZ.com:
Former All-Pro linebacker Chip Banks — the #3 overall pick in the 1982 NFL Draft — is fighting for his life after he was shot in an apparent targeted attack in Georgia … TMZ Sports has learned.
Cops tell us officers responded to a call about a shooting in the Atlanta area around noon on Wednesday and arrived to find 3 victims — including Banks — suffering from gunshot wounds.
One of the men, cops say, was pronounced dead at the scene by medical personnel.
The other two men — including Banks — were “alert, conscious and breathing” and transported to a local hospital for treatment, officials added.
We’re told 60-year-old Banks, the 1982 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, is currently in “serious condition.”
As for how the shooting went down … cops told local media outlets Wednesday they believe a group of 5 or 6 men with masks on rolled up to the residence, shot a man in the driveway and then went inside and shot the other two men before running off.
Cops told local outlets they do not believe the shooting was random — in other words, it appears at least one of the men was the target of a hit.
“Detectives are actively investigating the circumstances surrounding this incident,” a spokesperson for the Atlanta Police Dept. tells us. “The investigation continues.”
Banks was a pretty big star in the NFL in the 1980s and early 1990s … playing for the Cleveland Browns, San Diego Chargers and Indianapolis Colts.
Banks — who was drafted out of USC ahead of guys like Jim McMahon and Marcus Allen in 1982 — was a 4-time Pro Bowler in his 10 seasons in the league.
A targeted attack.
All three victims are said to be in their sixties. Funny, all the stories we see mention banks, none the name of the deceased.
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5 TO WATCH IN FANTASY FOOTBALL
Five players that are underappreciated in 2020 Fantasy Football from Sosa Kremenjas of ProFootballFocus.com:
CAM NEWTON, NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS – 148.71 ADP (QB18)
Most of what happens with Newton in 2020 will depend entirely on his health, as he’s proven to be one of the most productive fantasy football quarterbacks when free of injury. Unfortunately, his shoulder issues have hamstrung his abilities as of late. With a history of success, Newton is worth betting on, especially when you factor in the game-planning capabilities of head coach Bill Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.
Here are Newton’s finishes among quarterbacks since he entered the league:
2011: 4th
2012: 4th
2013: 4th
2014: 16th
2015: 1st
2016: 16th
2017: 2nd
2018: 13th
2019: N/A
It’s clear that a healthy Newton can do damage, and lots of it — his mobility, rushing upside and football IQ combine to project a strong floor and an almost immeasurable ceiling. Here are Newton’s rushing statistics dating back to his first season in the NFL in 2011.
Category Number (Rank)
Rushing attempts 931 (1st)
Rushing yards 4,760 (1st)
Rushing touchdowns 59 (1st)
Yards after contact per attempt 2.5 (4th)
In addition to his absolute rushing dominance, Newton ranks 12th in passing yards, 11th in passing touchdowns and sixth in average depth of target (aDOT) over the same time frame (min. 500 attempts).
The last part of the equation is examining the roster around Newton. If we look at the Patriots’ ranks in 2019, we can deduce that Newton probably has a good shot to produce in spades if he can remain healthy. The Patriots ranked first in red-zone plays and goal-line plays, ranked ninth in total pressures allowed and explosive plays passing (15-plus yards downfield) and ranked 13th in offensive touchdowns.
It’s tough to project what these numbers may look like on a Patriots team led by someone other than Tom Brady at quarterback for the first time in two decades. However, the expectation is that Newton should have a legitimate shot to not only re-insert himself as a quality starting quarterback in the NFL, but as a potentially dominant week-to-week option at the quarterback position in fantasy football leagues in 2020.
PFF’s fantasy projections anticipate a QB23 finish for Newton — that would place him between players like Philip Rivers and Gardner Minshew. One of the major positives for Newton is his schedule, which ranks as the fifth-easiest in 2020, according to PFF’s strength of schedule (SoS) metric.
DAVID JOHNSON, HOUSTON TEXANS – 43.04 ADP (RB22)
Like Newton, a lot of Johnson’s potential intrigue is strictly tied to his health. The difference is, Johnson simply hasn’t had any luck in that department as of late. He has played in 30 games out of a possible 48 games in the past three seasons. The 2019 season was not a great experience for Johnson, as he ranked 36th in running back scoring (143.5) and 32nd in points per snap, but his efficiency metrics proved to be highly impressive. He ranked 16th in points per touch (1.10), fifth in yards per target (8.60) and seventh in yards per reception (10.28) among all running backs. In addition to those efficiency metrics, Johnson ranked fifth in aDOT, which is exciting for a player who totaled 43 targets (not a small sample size).
Since being drafted in 2015, Johnson ranks 10th in receptions (208), fourth in receiving yards (2,219), second in receiving touchdowns (15), fifth in missed tackles forced on receptions (60), first in aDOT (3.4) and first in receiving yards per reception (10.7) among all running backs with 150-plus targets. Johnson is a decent runner, but it’s his receiving ability that separates him from many of the league’s running backs.
The trade that sent Johnson to the Texans muddies the waters in terms of his projection, but the offense has been productive in recent seasons and seems to be a decent landing spot for the pass-game connoisseur. Houston ranked ninth in explosive plays rushing (54), fifth in explosive run percentage (14.3%) and 10th in offensive touchdowns scored (44) in 2019. All of those figures bode well for Johnson, especially since his receiving ability is not in question.
PFF’s fantasy projections expect Johnson to slightly outplay his ADP, slotting him with an RB20 finish. A major positive for Johnson and his backfield teammates is their second-easiest schedule, according to PFF’s SoS metric.
ZACK MOSS, BUFFALO BILLS – 101.78 ADP (RB41)
The main roadblock for Moss to reach fantasy relevance is teammate Devin Singletary, who — like Moss — is a tackle-breaking extraordinaire. But there may be enough work for both players to prosper in Buffalo. The departure of veteran Frank Gore frees up a total of 181 touches, 166 of which were rushing attempts.
Moss’ had absolutely legendary efficiency in his final college season. The competition between him and Singletary will be fierce, but there is a lot of potential work left on the table from Gore’s departure, particularly in the red zone. Gore’s 27 red-zone carries ranked 23rd, and his 11 rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line ranked 13th. It was evident the Bills preferred to use a larger back near the endzone, which is a profile that Moss fits perfectly.
If Moss is capable of being productive between the 20-yard lines, his rookie season could amount to a fantastic one — he’s likely the first option in line for Gore’s vacated red-zone and goal-line work and should see a fair share of usage as a runner and receiving back outside of the money areas.
BRANDON AIYUK, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS – 157.53 ADP (WR62)
Aiyuk is the second rookie to make this list, and with good reason — there’s a massive target share up for grabs in San Francisco, and there’s arguably nobody on the roster more equipped than Aiyuk to secure it. The 49ers’ receiving corps is in flux with Emmanuel Sanders‘ departure in free agency (freeing 96 targets) in addition to Deebo Samuel’s foot injury that may extend into the season and ultimately force him to miss games (77 targets). While Samuel is expected to return at some point, we aren’t sure when. And to double down, we aren’t even sure just how much the foot injury will affect him when he does finally return to the field.
With not much left at the position in terms of true playmaking ability, Aiyuk has seemingly become the next man up, and he stands to benefit a great deal with the uncertainty at the position.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan has built an offense that relies on yards after the catch from his pass-game weapons, so his selection of Aiyuk should come as no surprise. Aiyuk was one of the best receivers at creating yards after the catch last season in college football. The 49ers ranked fifth in the NFL in receiving yards after the catch last season (2234). Meanwhile, Aiyuk ranked third in yards after the catch (710), first in receiving yards after contact (378) and fifth in yards after the catch per reception (10.9) among all college receivers with 50-plus targets.
The marriage between Aiyuk and the 49ers is perfect. In addition to that seamless fit, Shanahan is likely to find creative ways to deploy his first-round pick, too. Aiyuk’s capabilities with the ball in his hands are sure to be taken advantage of, as evidenced by Samuel’s 14 rushing attempts (ranked third among receivers) in 2019.
PFF’s fantasy projections expect a relatively quiet rookie season for Aiyuk, with his current ranking placing him at the WR81 spot. The 49ers’ wide receivers schedule ranks as the 12th-easiest in 2020, according to PFF’s SoS metric.
GERALD EVERETT, LOS ANGELES RAMS – 199.59 ADP (TE27)
The 2019 season was a tale of two halves for Everett. The first 10 weeks resulted in strong production and what seemed to be a relatively featured role, and the final seven weeks were filled with injury, a lack of playing time and basically no role within the Rams’ offense.
The unexpected emergence of teammate Tyler Higbee didn’t make it any easier for Everett, but a lot of his issues stemmed from a mid-season injury that plagued him for the remainder of the year. Over the first 10 weeks, Everett out-snapped, out-targeted and outproduced Higbee, even though Higbee received a big contract extension prior to the kickoff of the 2019 season. The Rams and head coach Sean McVay clearly viewed Everett as the superior pass-game weapon, and they treated him as such until the misfortune struck. Projecting the split between Higbee and Everett moving forward is incredibly tough, but it is fair to expect a large increase in usage across the board for Higbee.
The potential for both players to produce does remain a possibility, though, as the Rams shifted from a primarily 11 personnel offense to a much more varied offense that featured 12 personnel at a heavy rate. Here are the splits between the two personnel deployments.
It was clear the Rams wanted to shift their offensive identity midway through the 2019 season, though it remains to be seen whether they stick to it in 2020. The departure of Brandin Cooks opens up another 67 targets, most of which are likely to be replaced by wide receivers Josh Reynolds and Van Jefferson. The decision to trade Cooks — while eating a massive dead money cap hit — could speak to what the Rams intend to do in 2020, and that could very well involve a lot more snaps in 12 personnel alignments.
PFF’s fantasy projections anticipate a TE23 finish for Everett, which would result in him slightly outplaying his current TE27 ADP. Both Everett and Higbee have a favorable schedule — PFF’s SoS metric ranks their tight end schedule as the 12th-easiest in 2020.
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