The NFL wants to know everything about you and have your face in their data base if you are going to enter one of their stadiums.

If you’re just a member of the media and have privacy concerns, tough.

If you’re a police officer and worried that unsavory characters will get your address and other information, it’s an issue.  At least it is in Vegas.

Mike Florio:

It started with a union official venting to TMZ. It has culminated in a bipartisan objection, memorialized in an Associated Press story.

The NFL has a new credentialing process that, for certain areas of a stadium, requires facial recognition. The Las Vegas Police Protective Association opposes the changes. The Las Vegas Police Department supports the union.

The biggest sticking point has been the use of photos for facial recognition. The union said Thursday on social media that the league also wants other personal information regarding police officers, including fingerprints, home addresses, and phone numbers.

“We recognize the importance of our public safety partners and appreciate their efforts to ensure a safe game day environment,” the league said in a statement issued to the AP. “We’ve had productive conversations with the LVPPA and the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department about our modernized, secure credentialing system for all working staff. The credentialing system will enhance security at our stadiums, and we look forward to working with all stakeholders to address any questions or concerns raised.”

The league insists that the photos won’t be used for any other purpose.

The NFL’s obvious goal is to ensure that someone who might create chaos doesn’t slip through the cracks and masquerade as a police officer or someone else in a position of significant trust. If, however, the league wants too much information from police officers who would be working games, the league might end up having to employ its own local security detail for each and every stadium.

Frankly, if the league is looking for that kind of control over the security personnel at its stadiums, maybe that’s what the league should do. Hire (and fully vet) its own private police force for the 10 games to be played at most stadiums — and 20 at a couple of others.

DALLAS

QB DAK PRESCOTT is vaguely optimistic about his new deal.  Todd Archer of ESPN.com:

As much as Dak Prescott’s contractual future has been a constant talking point in the offseason, the Dallas Cowboys quarterback is not as consumed by it.

“I’m not putting that much thought into hoping it gets done now, hoping it gets done in a couple of weeks, during the season or whenever it happens,” Prescott said. “I just know conversations are on the right way.”

Prescott, entering the final year of his deal, is set to make $29 million and count $55 million against the salary cap. Without an extension, Prescott will hit free agency in March and count $40 million against the Cowboys’ cap in 2025.

Prescott said the sides have exchanged proposals but would say only, “a lot of good things are going on in there,” and he reiterated he has confidence in both sides working out a deal, whether it be soon or before March when he would become a free agent.

“I enjoy being a Cowboy 1,000 percent, enjoy living in Dallas, enjoy everything about it,” Prescott said. “But this is a business. Conversations are going well, but I’m thankful to be where I am right now and that’s here.”

Prescott’s health has become a minor topic after he missed a day of practice with ankle soreness last week. It was the second time in roughly a month that he had soreness. Before camp started, he was spotted in a walking boot while on vacation.

After a 71-play session against the Los Angeles Rams on Wednesday, he took part in a full workout Thursday, the Cowboys’ last one before taking on the Las Vegas Raiders on Saturday.

Prescott, 31, suffered a fractured and dislocated right ankle in Week 5 of the 2020 season, but he has missed just one game since with leg issues (calf, 2021). He missed six games in 2022 because of a broken thumb but played every game last season.

“It was a nasty ankle injury,” Prescott said. “It’s something that I do each and every day, every other day doing my rehab, making sure I’m staying focused on it. Not trying to miss anything. But, yeah, as I said, if anything, it’s just going to be maybe a rest here and there. No long-term [issues], especially with the schedule we’re on. I don’t see anything really coming from this and no residual effects.”

Prescott has his own therapist, Luke Miller, who works in concert with the Cowboys’ athletic training staff. He said they go through a “checklist” six days a week where they’re working on his ankle, shoulder or back. “Those are all places and things where everything is fine, but we’ve got to keep the maintenance on it, understanding my age, understanding how long I want to play, my expectations for myself in my play,” Prescott said.

Prescott did not put a timeframe on how much longer he wants to play.

“When I put the cleats down and I’m done,” he said. “I want it to be on my terms and not because my body said that’s not enough.”

PHILADELPHIA

Coach Nick Sirianni continues to practice great restraint in playing important personnel in preseason.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Last season, after the Eagles’ offense looked sluggish in Week One, head coach Nick Sirianni said he would reconsider his practice of sitting his starters during the preseason, and consider giving preseason snaps to key players like quarterback Jalen Hurts. But that hasn’t happened.

Hurts has not played in the first two preseason games, and Sirianni said after Thursday night’s game that he didn’t mean to suggest a year ago that his approach to the preseason had changed, only that he would always consider anything that could improve the team’s performance.

“What I probably should have said, if I didn’t say this, is I would always reconsider,” Sirianni said. “Everything’s always on the table and each year is a different year. For me to answer anything for next year, or probably last year answering for this year wasn’t smart on my behalf.”

Sirianni noted that the Eagles won their first five games last year and their first eight games the year before, so it’s not like they’ve been unprepared for the start of the season. Ultimately, Sirianni is approaching the preseason the same way, by not risking injury to his most important players.

ATLANTA

On Wednesday, it was the trade for EDGE MATTHEW JUDON.

On Thursday, the Falcons again bolstered their defense with a veteran addition.

Josh Kendall of The Athletic on the signing of S JUSTIN SIMMONS:

Less than 24 hours after adding four-time Pro Bowl edge rusher Matthew Judon via trade, the Atlanta Falcons landed free-agent safety Justin Simmons, a two-time Pro Bowl selection and four-time second-team All-Pro.

Simmons agreed to a one-year deal with $7.5 million guaranteed and a $500,000 bonus if he is named a first-team All-Pro, team sources told The Athletic. The Falcons, who will pay Judon $6.5 million this year, will restructure the contract of offensive lineman Chris Lindstrom to free up salary-cap room. They could do the same with the contracts of Jake Matthews, Grady Jarrett, Jessie Bates III and David Onyemata if more room is needed.

The Falcons employed a full-court press to sign Simmons. General manager Terry Fontenot, head coach Raheem Morris and defensive standouts Bates, Jarrett and cornerback A.J. Terrell took him to dinner recently to pitch the team’s case.

On Thursday before the Simmons deal was done, Bates hinted he’d be happy to have company in the secondary.

“No names or nothing, but if there is somebody Terry and them think can help our team, we are more than willing to help our team,” Bates said. “Come join and get on the wave.”

The combination of Bates, who joined the Falcons as a free agent last offseason, and Simmons gives Atlanta arguably the best safety duo in the NFL. No safeties in the NFL have had more combined interceptions and forced incompletions than Simmons (51) and Bates (47), according to Pro Football Focus. The Falcons’ depth at the position took a hit last week when Demarcco Hellams suffered an ankle injury in the team’s preseason opener against Miami.

Simmons, a third-round pick by the Broncos in 2016, had 604 tackles and 30 interceptions in eight years in Denver. He was released by the Broncos in March. His addition along with that of Judon should bolster a defense that finished 18th in points allowed last year (21.9).

LOS ANGELES RAMS

Sean McVay had so much fun briefly chatting with the Rams telecasting crew last week from the sidelines – he will be in the booth for the part, maybe most, of Saturday’s game with the Chargers.  With LA bragging rights on the line, McVay will be absent.  Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com:

Some coaches don’t like the preseason. Others dismiss it.

Nobody, however, shows apathy for the preseason like Los Angeles Rams coach Sean McVay.

McVay was on the sideline for last week’s preseason opener but spent a couple series with a broadcast headset on, providing commentary and arguing with officials. He wasn’t taking the game all that seriously, as usual during the preseason. This week, he’s taking it a step further. According to Jourdan Rodrigue of The Athletic, McVay is letting assistant Aubrey Pleasant coach the game. McVay said he wanted to get Pleasant, the team’s passing game coordinator and assistant head coach, some reps as a head coach. That’s commendable.

But that’s not all. The report also said McVay plans to spend some of the game in the broadcast booth. At this rate, next year McVay might just stay at home for the games.

McVay changed the NFL preseason. He was the first coach to sit nearly all of his starters for every preseason game. McVay won’t even play his second-string quarterback in preseason. He uses joint practices to get his team ready and clearly sees preseason games as a waste of time. Before McVay, every coach had basically the same formula: A series or two for the starters in the first game, a quarter or more in the second game and then the third game was the “dress rehearsal” with starters getting a half or more. The fourth game, back before the preseason was reduced to three, just about every coach sat all starters.

McVay came along, other coaches followed suit and now some teams treat all games like the old fourth preseason game, sitting everyone. It has turned the preseason into a waste of time for plenty of teams, even though owners still are charging season-ticket holders full price for the games.

McVay seems to relish his indifference toward the preseason. Perhaps he’ll talk about that up in the broadcast booth this week while one of his assistants coaches the Rams.

CINCINNATI

RB CHRIS EVANS won’t get a chance to move up the Bengals running back depth chart.  He’s done for the season.  Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:

Running back Chris Evans was one of two Bengals carted off during Thursday’s joint practice with the Bears.

Evans was diagnosed with a torn patellar tendon in his knee, Jordan Schultz reports.

The timeline for Evans’ injury typically is nine months, so he will miss the entire regular season.

Evans was injured during a kickoff return, and shortly thereafter, offensive lineman D’Ante Smith went down during a team drill.

The Bengals list Evans fourth on the depth chart behind Zack Moss, Chase Brown and Trayveon Williams. He has played 34 games with one start since the Bengals drafted him in the sixth round in 2021.

PITTSBURGH

QB RUSSELL WILSON will make his Steelers debut Saturday.  Brooke Pryor of ESPN.com:

Quarterback Russell Wilson will make his Steelers preseason debut against the Bills on Saturday night, coach Mike Tomlin said.

Tomlin, who spoke following the Bills-Steelers joint practice Thursday, said Wilson will “be a participant” in the team’s second preseason game as long as he doesn’t experience any setbacks to the calf injury he suffered on the eve of the team’s first training camp practice.

Wilson, who split first-team reps with Justin Fields during team periods of the joint practice, said Wednesday he wasn’t concerned about aggravating his calf injury if he played in the preseason.

“I don’t play with fear,” Wilson said. “I never have. You play smart just like a normal game. Got to know when to get down, you got to know when to slide, get out of bounds, all those things. But like I said, I know how to avoid certain things, certain hits and all that. You got to be smart out there. But also, I don’t strap on the pads and just get ready to go and play fearful. Anybody knows me, I don’t think that way. So I’ll be ready to rock and roll if that’s the case.”

Tomlin didn’t give a list of others who would or wouldn’t play, but he said “all who are healthy will play.”

The first-team units on each side of the ball are scheduled to play “roughly” four series after playing three with Fields against the Houston Texans in the first preseason game, Tomlin said.

“Last week they played about two series roughly offensively and defensively,” he said. “We have a mindset of playing roughly four this time around, but that’s subject to change based on what it is that we see.

“If they’re highly effective and productive and we get good quality work, we might move on from them to get more of exposure to the other guys, and so that’s a template in which we work. … We had a two-series mentality last time out. This time out, we kind of got a four-series mentality.”

Tomlin, though, didn’t have a concrete plan for the number of series Fields or the second-team units would play this time around.

“We’re going for roughly four series with that first group and then we’re going to play from there. I don’t have it etched in stone,” he said.

Against the Bills in the joint practice, Fields and the offense scored in a two-minute drill, capped with a long touchdown run by the quarterback. Wilson took the first reps in the opening “seven shots” drill against Buffalo’s defense, scoring on two of the unit’s four attempts. He hit George Pickens and Dez Fitzpatrick for touchdowns. Fields took over for the final three reps and scored on all three, including a read-option touchdown where he ran in nearly untouched, and two passes to Cordarrelle Patterson and Scotty Miller.

“it’s kind of cool just going up against other guys,” Fields said. “Different defense than we’ve seen for the past few weeks, different skill sets, so it’s always fun.”

And though fights have erupted at other joint camps around the league this year, the Steelers and Bills remained fairly incident-free. The largest scuffle broke out when the Steelers’ offensive line took exception to extra celebrating after linebacker Dorian Williams knocked down Fields’ pass at the line of scrimmage. It broke up fairly fast without a major incident.

– – –

With a new offensive scheme and QB (whoever that might be), a name to file away at your Fantasy draft might be TE DARNELL WASHINGTON.  Anthony G. Malkias of SteelersNation.com:

(Russell) Wilson has embraced Pittsburgh with enthusiasm, quickly becoming a welcoming presence in Steel City. However, Steelers fans will be more focused on his performance on the field than his off-field charm if he struggles to lead the team to victories in the 2024 season.

One of the standout aspects of Wilson’s arrival is his positive mindset. Despite some concerns about the Steelers’ wide receiver corps this offseason, Wilson is full of praise for his teammates. He has lauded Calvin Austin III as exceptional, described George Pickens as possibly one of the best wide receiver he’s ever played with, and expressed high regard for all his offensive weapons.

After the conclusion of training camp on Wednesday, Wilson addressed the media and couldn’t contain his excitement about tight end Darnell Washington. He hinted at plans to increase Washington’s targets in the upcoming season, underscoring his belief in the young tight end’s potential.

“Yeah, Big Darnell, he’s like 6’8” and about 305 running fast, big body. Just you know, you give him a chance all the time down there and he makes great plays. He ran a great route on that one, huge play and he’s just been showing up all camp.”

In the 2023 season, Washington received just 10 targets, catching seven passes for 61 yards but failing to score a touchdown. With new Offensive Coordinator Arthur Smith joining the team for Washington’s second season, expectations are higher. Smith is known for integrating tight ends effectively into his offense, so Washington is likely to see increased opportunities.

Wilson is thrilled about the chance to throw to Washington and be his teammate. While Washington isn’t quite 305 pounds, his size and strength make him a standout athlete at the tight end position. Wilson has been particularly impressed by Washington’s unique abilities, praising him for his exceptional athleticism.

“It really feels like his fourth year, but it’s really only his second and it’s been impressive just how knowledgeable he is and how competitive he is. Obviously, there’s only so many human beings in the world that are that big and can run that well and catch that good, too. He’s very skillful, so it’s good to have him on our team.”

As a rookie, Washington didn’t have many opportunities to make an impact in the passing game. However, that is likely to change in the 2024 season with a new offensive system and a new quarterback in place. Drafted by the Steelers in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft, Washington was initially brought in to enhance the blocking game and be a red zone threat.

At Georgia, Washington didn’t accumulate standout stats, but his presence was crucial in opening up the offense. The Steelers hope he can bring that same influence to Pittsburgh. While they’re not overly concerned with his current target count, his size and athleticism present a significant threat if he evolves into a reliable pass-catching tight end. Washington could become nearly impossible to defend against as he develops his receiving skills.

Washington is not listed as weighing 305.  The Steelers say 264.

BUFFALO

The Bills only got five games from LB MATT MILANO last year.  They won’t even get that in 2024.  Cody Benjamin of CBSSports.com:

Matt Milano missed all but five games during the 2023 NFL season, leaving the Buffalo Bills without one of their top defensive playmakers. Now the star linebacker will be absent for another extended period, with the team confirming Thursday that the former All-Pro will undergo surgery for a torn biceps suffered this week.

“It’s unfortunate news regarding Matt Milano’s bicep injury,” coach Sean McDermott said in a team statement. “He’s a resilient person and we’re all here to support him.”

Milano, who turned 30 this summer, left Tuesday’s training camp practice due to the injury. Milano hopes to return late in the 2024 season, possibly in December, according to ESPN, but will be out indefinitely after undergoing surgery. He’s a candidate to open the season on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list, which would require at least a four-game absence, but could end up missing the entire year.

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It’s a sudden and significant setback for a veteran who’d seemingly just returned to full speed following a leg fracture suffered in Week 5 of last season. That injury cost him 14 games, including playoffs.

When healthy, Milano has been one of the Bills’ most heralded defenders. Now on his third contract with the team, he was especially busy at the heart of Buffalo’s defense during a 13-3 finish in 2022, totaling 99 tackles, 12 tackles for loss, 11 pass breakups and three interceptions. He’s started a combined 74 games for the Bills since his arrival as a fifth-round draft pick out of Boston College in 2017.

With Milano absent, the team figures to rely on 2023 third-rounder Dorian Williams at linebacker alongside third-year veteran Terrel Bernard and journeyman addition Nicholas Morrow.

NEW ENGLAND

QB DRAKE MAYE had a good outing on Thursday night per Mike Reiss of ESPN.com:

Rookie quarterback Drake Maye played in four series over two quarters — totaling 25 snaps — and the results (albeit against Eagles backups) sparked hope for the Patriots’ future. After playing just one series last week, Maye helped lead the offense to 10 points — a 51-yard Joey Slye field goal and then a 4-yard TD run from himself. He entered at the start of the second quarter in place of starter Jacoby Brissett (3 series, 3 of 7 for 17 yards, 1 interception).

Maye’s stat line — 6 of 11 for 47 yards, in addition to 15 yards on 4 carries — didn’t necessarily reflect the calmness of his performance as he patiently went through his progressions. For example, he delivered a pinpoint deep ball in the third quarter to diving rookie wide receiver Javon Baker that was dropped. Had that connection been made — and Maye couldn’t have thrown it any better — it would have been a headline play.

And afterwards, Coach Jerod Mayo said that Maye still has a chance to start the opener.  Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com:

For most of the offseason, Drake Maye was the clear No. 2 on the New England Patriots’ quarterback depth chart.

With one more preseason game to go for the Patriots, coach Jerod Mayo opened the door for Maye to become No. 1 before the regular season starts.

Jacoby Brissett didn’t play well on Thursday night, throwing one interception into the end zone and nearly throwing another under pressure. Maye, the No. 3 overall pick of the draft, made some good throws and led the team to its only touchdown of the game.

That was enough for Mayo to at least entertain the idea of Maye starting the season opener.

Mayo said on Friday that “the competition isn’t over” for the QB1 spot, via Evan Lazar of Patriots.com. Brissett has been the starter in both preseason games and training camp, but Mayo said Maye could get first-team reps this week.

“We’ll see,” Mayo said, via Doug Kyed of the Boston Herald. “We’ll have a staff meeting later today and that decision will be made. I think he definitely showed improvement yesterday. We’ll see going forward.”

NEW YORK JETS

Don’t worry, Jets fans – WR GARRETT WILSON loves playing with QB AARON RODGERS.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

The relationship between Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers and wide receiver Garrett Wilson came under some scrutiny early in training camp because they were seen having animated conversations during sloppy practices for the team’s offense.

Both men downplayed any negative connotation about the chats by saying that it was part of creating a connection that will produce at a high level on the field. That construction has continued over the last couple of weeks and Wilson said on Thursday that working on building an “understanding for how he goes about his and how I go about mine” has left him feeling like there’s no limit on what the team will be able to do offensively.

“When you’ve got him in front of you, you’re like, ‘This dude can throw anything, he can throw it anywhere,’” Wilson said, via the team’s website. “It’s just like for me, it feels like pure football. It feels like I’m a kid again and I can kind of believe what I see. It’s the best way to put it for me. With Aaron, everything’s . . . you can do it. And that’s how football should be played, when you can do it. So it’s exciting for me and for all the receivers in the room, the tight ends, we all feel like we can really just go out there and play and trust our eyes, we don’t have to overthink anything.”

The Jets never got to see Rodgers and Wilson take flight last season and the prospect of what they can do together is one of the leading reasons for optimism about how things will look on the field this fall.

THIS AND THAT

EACH TEAM’S CEILING, EACH TEAM’s FLOORS

This exercise using ESPN’s FPI engine:

To look at the bigger picture and just how good — or bad — every team could be this season, we turned to our ESPN Football Power Index. FPI projected win totals for every team based on 20,000 season simulations performed by our ESPN Stats & Information team, but to find a high and low, we picked out the middle 90% of those simulations. That gave us a ceiling and a floor in terms of expected record for each team in 2024, with extremely unlikely outliers eliminated.

What can we expect for each team this season? If everything goes right, what might each team’s record be? And if the worst scenario plays out, what would their records look like? We pulled the FPI ceilings and floors for every team, then asked our NFL Nation reporters to explain the biggest factor that will determine where each team falls within that win-total spectrum. However, our reporters weren’t allowed to go with the easy answer and write about the success or failure of the quarterback they cover.

In this exercise last year, our analysis theorized that the Chiefs’ pass rush would be the biggest determining factor on whether they reached their ceiling. Kansas City finished second in sacks last year with 57, and that aggressive defense helped the Chiefs win their second straight Super Bowl.

Let’s go division by division, starting with the AFC East:

AFC EAST

Buffalo Bills

Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 7-10

Biggest X factor: Offseason changes

The Bills’ offseason included significant changes. The team moved on from a number of veteran players — six of eight 2023 team captains have departed. From the revamped wide receiver room — Khalil Shakir is the only one who caught a pass last year — to a new center in Connor McGovern, to having new starting safeties, the Bills will be relying on those additions to make positive contributions. How the team’s returning veteran leaders step up, and the type of impact the new players have, will go a long way in the Bills’ quest for a fifth straight division title. — Alaina Getzenberg

Miami Dolphins

Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10

Biggest X factor: Pass-rush depth

The Dolphins effectively ran out of pass rushers by the end of last season, which coincided with their sputtering end to the year. They emphasized building depth this offseason, drafting Chop Robinson and Mohamed Kamara, who both saw extended runs during training camp while starters Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb worked their way back from season-ending injuries. Phillips is back, and if he can reach (and surpass) his form from last season, Miami should have an exciting rotation of pass rushers. — Marcel Louis-Jacques

New England Patriots

Ceiling: 7-10 | Floor: 3-14

Biggest X factor: Offensive line

Coach Jerod Mayo said he wants the Patriots to be a running team, which would take pressure off a passing offense that doesn’t have a No. 1 receiver and projects to initially be led by veteran Jacoby Brissett before No. 3 pick Drake Maye takes over at some point. The early returns along the line have been shaky, especially at tackle, where Vederian Lowe is the current top left tackle and Chukwuma Okorafor is the current top right tackle. But with Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson as top running backs, the Patriots have solid talent at that position. — Mike Reiss

New York Jets

Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10

Biggest X factor: Offensive line

This one’s easy. To keep Aaron Rodgers upright, which is priority No. 1, the Jets need dramatic improvement from their line, which allowed 64 sacks last season. The personnel is better, as they brought in three new starters — LT Tyron Smith, LG John Simpson and RT Morgan Moses. The key is keeping them healthy, especially Smith, who has missed 37 games in the past four seasons. — Rich Cimini

AFC NORTH

Baltimore Ravens

Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 8-9

Biggest X factor: Offensive line

The Ravens decided to go younger on the offensive line, letting guards Kevin Zeitler and John Simpson sign elsewhere and trading right tackle Morgan Moses to the Jets. The three new up-front starters — Baltimore has yet to officially name them — will have a major impact, especially with their pass protection. When Lamar Jackson has been sacked four or more times in his career, Baltimore is 8-9 (.470). When Jackson is sacked three or fewer times, the Ravens are 50-10 (.833). — Jamison Hensley

Cincinnati Bengals

Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 8-9

Biggest X factor: Secondary play

The Bengals allowed the most yards per pass attempt last season. Bringing back safety Vonn Bell has been big for improving communication in the secondary, which was a major point of emphasis. Bell, new free safety Geno Stone and improvement from CB DJ Turner in his second season could flip the fortunes of a unit that is looking to regain the form it had in 2022, when the Bengals were 12th in yards per attempt allowed. — Ben Baby

Cleveland Browns

Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11

Biggest X factor: RB Nick Chubb

Since entering the NFL in 2018, Chubb has anchored the Browns’ offense. But a severe left knee injury last September — the second he has experienced — required a pair of surgeries and could keep him off the field for the early portion of the season. Even when Chubb does return, how quickly he can recapture his Pro Bowl form could play a big role in whether Cleveland returns to the playoffs for a second straight season. — Daniel Oyefusi

Pittsburgh Steelers

Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 5-12

Biggest X factor: Wide receiver depth

The Steelers have a clear No. 1 receiver in George Pickens, but beyond that, the depth is murky. The team traded away Diontae Johnson in the offseason and added veteran Van Jefferson and rookie Roman Wilson. In an effort to shore up the position, the Steelers engaged in talks with the 49ers for a potential Brandon Aiyuk trade, but so far, that hasn’t come to fruition. Wilson has missed a big chunk of training camp with an ankle injury. Jefferson, though, has been a consistent No. 2 during camp practices. If his preseason productivity translates to the regular season — or if Aiyuk lands in Pittsburgh — the Steelers will be in good shape. If not, the offense could struggle as defenses look to take away Pickens. — Brooke Pryor

AFC SOUTH

Houston Texans

Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10

Biggest X factor: Offensive line health

Health up front could be pivotal as left tackle Laremy Tunsil hasn’t practiced all camp as he recovers from offseason knee surgery. Tunsil is the Texans’ best offensive lineman, but most importantly, he’s next to third-year left guard Kenyon Green, who is next to second-year center Juice Scruggs. Tunsil’s veteran presence helps anchor the youth, but if Tunsil missed significant time, rookie tackle Blake Fisher would replace him, and the left side of the unit would be extremely young. That could result in the types of issues displayed during training camp being carried over to the season. — DJ Bien-Aime

Indianapolis Colts

Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11

Biggest X factor: RB Jonathan Taylor’s performance

Taylor has been slowed by injuries the past two seasons. But when healthy, the running back is one of the most dangerous playmakers in the NFL. He offered a reminder of what he can be when he returned to form late last season, punctuating 2023 with a 188-yard rushing performance in Week 18 against Houston. In 2021, when he played all 17 games, Taylor had the most prolific rushing season in franchise history, with 1,811 yards and 18 touchdowns. Look for Taylor’s presence to positively impact the read-option potential of quarterback Anthony Richardson as well. — Stephen Holder

Jacksonville Jaguars

Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11

Biggest X factor: Offensive line improvement

Four of the five starters from last season’s offensive line — which ranked 29th in pass block win rate (50.5%) and 28th in run block win rate (68.1%) — are back. All four suffered injuries last season, and the Jaguars are banking on them being a healthier, much-improved unit (with the addition of center Mitch Morse also helping). If not, it’ll again be a struggle to run the ball and have any consistent success. — Michael DiRocco

Tennessee Titans

Ceiling: 9-8 | Floor: 4-13

Biggest X factor: Offensive line improvement

Adding Bill Callahan as offensive line coach will give any group of linemen a significant boost. The Titans doubled down by boosting the talent on the offensive line with first-round pick JC Latham at left tackle and the addition of free agent center Lloyd Cushenberry III. Last year’s unit gave up 64 sacks, which made it extremely difficult to convert third-and-long situations. This year’s group should be much improved, leading to more efficiency on offense. — Turron Davenport

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos

Ceiling: 8-9 | Floor: 3-14

Biggest X factor: Depth overall, especially in offensive line

Considering the steady roster churn that has resulted from the Broncos having five head coaches since 2016, it’s not surprising depth is lacking in Denver. Add in draft picks who were dealt away from the Russell Wilson and Sean Payton trades, plus salary cap woes from the Wilson release, and it has been hard for the Broncos to establish depth. This is most apparent on the offensive line, especially considering Quinn Bailey — a player Payton called “lineman six” because he played both guard and tackle as well as tight end in heavy formations — suffered a season-ending lower leg injury in training camp. — Jeff Legwold

Kansas City Chiefs

Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 9-8

Biggest X factor: Wide receiver play

It’s difficult to picture the Chiefs staying atop the AFC and winning a third straight Super Bowl without improved wide receiver play. The Chiefs certainly put a priority on that during the offseason, signing free agent Marquise Brown and drafting Xavier Worthy in the first round, and it could well work out the way they hoped. If not, they would put a lot of pressure on Patrick Mahomes and their defense once again. Would that be enough to win another championship? — Adam Teicher

Las Vegas Raiders

Ceiling: 10-7 | Floor: 5-12

Biggest X factor: RB Zamir White

Gone to Green Bay in free agency is former All-Pro Josh Jacobs, so the role of every-down back now falls to White, who has not been in that situation since his final year of college at Georgia. These are huge shoes to fill for a guy who has rushed for a grand total of 521 yards in two seasons, nearly 400 of which came in the Raiders’ final four games last season, when Jacobs was out with an injury. Throw in the fact that offensive coordinator Luke Getsy has authored top-2 rushing attacks the past two seasons with the Bears and more than eyes will be on White this season. Added expectations will be too. — Paul Gutierrez

Los Angeles Chargers

Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11

Biggest X factor: Wide receiver

After possessing one of the league’s best wide receiver pairings with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, the Chargers have arguably the league’s worst heading into 2024. If a receiver from this group becomes a player defenses have to game-plan to stop, that can change the trajectory of this team. — Kris Rhim

NFC EAST

Dallas Cowboys

Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 8-9

Biggest X factor: Lack of offseason additions

This offseason’s inactivity has the Cowboys banking on a lot of improvement from within with their draft-and-development strategy. It’s hard to say the team they’ll field in September will be better than the one they fielded this past January. When you add in the uncertain futures of Dak Prescott and of Mike McCarthy and the rest of the coaching staff, it leads to a tenuous feel for a team that has won 36 games over the past three seasons. — Todd Archer

New York Giants

Ceiling: 9-8 | Floor: 4-13

Biggest X factor: Brian Daboll running the offense

It’s officially Daboll’s offense now. He’s running the meetings, calling the plays and spending more time with the quarterbacks — including starter Daniel Jones. Daboll made it a priority to throw the ball down the field all summer in hopes of adding more explosiveness to the offense. The Giants have to be better in that regard. Their offense can’t be the same group that averaged fewer than 12 points per game over the first 10 weeks of last season with Malik Nabers, Jalin Hyatt, Darius Slayton and Wan’Dale Robinson, all dynamic receivers. — Jordan Raanan

Philadelphia Eagles

Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 8-9

Biggest X factor: Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore

The Eagles’ high-powered attack fell into a funk late last season, contributing to the team’s 1-6 collapse and early playoff exit. Offensive coordinator Brian Johnson was fired, and head coach Nick Sirianni handed much of the creative control over to Johnson’s replacement, Moore. The former Cowboys and Chargers OC has been hard at work addressing problem areas from last season, including lack of pre-snap motion (the Eagles were last in that category in 2023) and effectiveness against the blitz (Jalen Hurts threw a league-high eight interceptions when facing those pressures). A disconnect in visions between Hurts and Sirianni helped fuel the downturn. It’s imperative Moore and Hurts sync up. — Tim McManus

Washington Commanders

Ceiling: 9-8 | Floor: 4-13

Biggest X factor: Offensive line production

The Commanders revamped their line, adding three new starters — center Tyler Biadasz, guard Nick Allegretti and rookie tackle Brandon Coleman. Washington allowed a franchise-record 65 sacks last season, although the playcalling and quarterback Sam Howell were big reasons why. But if the Commanders receive solid play up front, they can provide a tremendous boost to rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels and allow new OC Kliff Kingsbury to run a more varied attack. — John Keim

NFC NORTH

Chicago Bears

Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11

Biggest X factor: Offensive line play

Caleb Williams had a 69 QBR when pressured in 2022 — his Heisman Trophy season — which was the second-highest among Power 5 QBs. Although the No. 1 pick excels operating in and out of structure, the Bears aimed to upgrade his protection this offseason. Tackles Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright and left guard Teven Jenkins are set, but a competition at center and potential switch at right guard due to Nate Davis’ health remain question marks the team hopes to have answered soon. One positive sign that flew under the radar in Williams’ preseason debut: The quarterback averaged 3.56 seconds to throw against the Bills. That’s more time allowed than what former Bears quarterback Justin Fields (3.39 seconds) averaged in 2023. — Courtney Cronin

Detroit Lions

Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 8-9

Biggest X factor: Secondary play

After allowing opponents to score a TD on 23% of drives last season (25th in the league), Lions general manager Brad Holmes was aggressive in upgrading the defense — particularly in the secondary. Detroit selected a defensive back with each of its first two draft picks in the spring — first-round pick Terrion Arnold and second-round pick Ennis Rakestraw Jr. The Lions hope each can contribute immediately. They also brought in veteran corners Carlton Davis III and Amik Robertson. These upgrades could have a lot of say in how Detroit’s season plays out. — Eric Woodyard

Green Bay Packers

Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10

Biggest X factor: RB Josh Jacobs

Because this is usually on the defense — and the defense almost never lives up to the challenge, hence the Packers being on their third defensive coordinator in the past six seasons — maybe it’s worth considering that the difference between good and great for this team is whether Jacobs can have the kind of impact Aaron Jones had when healthy. Jacobs’ age (26 compared with Jones’ 29) and durability were among the reasons Green Bay made the change at running back, but he has big shoes to fill. — Rob Demovsky

Minnesota Vikings

Ceiling: 9-8 | Floor: 4-13

Biggest X factor: Aaron Jones

The Vikings signed Jones for two reasons. They wanted to elevate a rushing attack that has compiled the NFL’s fifth fewest yards since coach Kevin O’Connell was hired to start the 2022 season. They also hoped Jones could take pressure off whomever the team chooses to replace quarterback Kirk Cousins. That will be veteran Sam Darnold, as rookie J.J. McCarthy will undergo surgery on a torn meniscus in his right knee and miss the season. Vikings running backs have produced 939 receiving yards in the past two seasons, seventh worst in the NFL. Since entering the NFL in 2017, Jones has the ninth-most receptions by a running back in the league (272). — Kevin Seifert

NFC SOUTH

Atlanta Falcons

Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10

Biggest X factor: Maximizing a pass rush

Outside of safety Jessie Bates III, the Falcons’ defense didn’t have any major stars until the acquisition of edge rusher Matthew Judon. The team’s pass rush has been a weak spot for nearly a decade, and a lot will be asked of Judon to produce immediately. The team just lost rookie pass rusher Bralen Trice to a season-ending injury. If Atlanta can get pressure on the quarterback with some regularity, it could hit that 12-win mark — which would be its best since 2012. Judon will likely need some help from someone like Arnold Ebiketie, James Smith-Williams or Lorenzo Carter. If not, well, the Falcons could be staring at a fourth straight 7-10 season. — Marc Raimondi

Carolina Panthers

Ceiling: 8-9 | Floor: 3-14

Biggest X factor: Will the OL protect Bryce Young

GM Dan Morgan spent the offseason upgrading the interior of an offensive line that allowed 35 of the team’s 62 sacks and the wide receiver corps, which was part of an offense that finished last in the NFL in passing yards per game. He spent $150 million on a pair of free agent guards, traded for wide receiver Diontae Johnson and traded into the first round to select receiver Xavier Legette. Although giving Young more pass catchers was important, how well the line protects him will determine how much Young improves in Year 2. — David Newton

New Orleans Saints

Ceiling: 10-7 | Floor: 5-12

Biggest X factor: Right tackle

The Saints are undergoing a major shift at RT after Ryan Ramczyk was declared done for the year with knee problems. They moved Trevor Penning, drafted as a first-round left tackle in 2022, to the right side this year. Penning was benched last October after starting the season at left tackle, and his training camp performance this year hasn’t provided reassurances that he’s the right fit there. Figuring out the right offensive line combination, particularly at left guard and right tackle, will be critical to the Saints’ win total this season. — Katherine Terrell

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Ceiling: 10-7 | Floor: 5-12

Biggest X factor: New faces on defense

Outside linebacker Shaquil Barrett, inside linebacker Devin White and cornerback Carlton Davis III had all been fixtures on the Bucs’ defense the past five or more years, but they are now gone. The writing was on the wall for all three, but did the team fill those spots with the necessary players to not only maintain last year’s standard but improve? Bucs fans got a sneak peek at what K.J. Britt, who steps in for White, and Zyon McCollum, who steps in for Davis, could do last year. But there are a lot of unknowns at edge rusher, with Joe Tryon-Shoyinka having yet to take the next step and no good idea of what to expect out of second-round draft pick Chris Braswell. After all, pass rush was a key differentiator in Tampa Bay’s playoff loss to the Lions. — Jenna Laine

NFC WEST

Arizona Cardinals

Ceiling: 10-7 | Floor: 5-12

Biggest X factor: WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

Harrison’s impact will likely be felt immediately, as his presence provides a threat every time he’s on the field. He should have a favorable impact on the players around him, including a healthy Kyler Murray. It’s possible Harrison will help the stars align into a 10-win season and playoff bid. — Josh Weinfuss

Los Angeles Rams

Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11

Biggest X factor: Growth of young defense

The Rams have an Aaron Donald-sized hole in their defense this season, their first under defensive coordinator Chris Shula. Los Angeles addressed its pass rush in the draft but also knows that it’ll need more than one player to replace the future Hall of Famer’s impact on this defense. The Rams return the majority of their offense from a team that made the playoffs last season, but success this season will hinge on how well its young defenders play. — Sarah Barshop

San Francisco 49ers

Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 8-9

Biggest X factor: Contract drama

The 49ers are no strangers to high-stakes contract negotiations or the drama that comes with them. They’ve successfully navigated them in the past and continued to contend for Super Bowls. But this might be the most difficult situation they’ve been in yet when it comes to the financials.

Beyond receiver Brandon Aiyuk and tackle Trent Williams not participating in training camp, there’s the pending megadeal for quarterback Brock Purdy plus having a number of key starters — CBs Charvarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir, LB Dre Greenlaw, S Talanoa Hufanga and G Aaron Banks — set to become unrestricted free agents after the season. The Niners insist those issues won’t fester, but it’s fair to wonder whether so much uncertainty and jockeying for big bucks will create a problem that will throw a wrench into another deep postseason run. — Nick Wagoner

Seattle Seahawks

Ceiling: 10-7 | Floor: 5-12

Biggest X factor: The offensive line

To say this group has boom-or-bust potential might be overstating its ceiling, but that was raised considerably with the recent addition of Connor Williams. He gives Seattle a much-needed talent upgrade at center, where he has shown the ability to be an above-average starter. Williams, though, is coming off a torn ACL from December, and right tackle Abraham Lucas — arguably Seattle’s best offensive lineman as a rookie in 2022 — has yet to practice this offseason as he recovers from surgery to address what might be a chronic knee injury. Left tackle Charles Cross is the other significant variable. The ninth pick of the 2022 draft has been solid over his first two seasons. Will his excellent start to training camp give way to a breakout in Year 3? — Brady Henderson

What teams do we think could top their projected floor?

The Chiefs can go 14-3+

The Rams can go 12-5+

The Broncos can go 8-9+

The Colts can go 11-6+

What teams can crash below their projected floor?

Well quite a few of them if the QB goes down

The Bills won’t win 7 without Josh Allen for example.

BROADCAST NEWS

On the eve of the NFL season, ESPN declares that two of its more prominent commentators have to go, claiming it is to save money. Ryan Glasspiegel of the New York Post finds it stunning that ESPN’s bean counters singled out Sam Ponder and Ryan Griffin III:

ESPN made a series of stunning personnel decisions on Thursday.

Robert Griffin III and Sam Ponder have been let go by the network, The Athletic’s Andrew Marchand first reported.

RG3 had been demoted from his analyst role on “Monday NFL Countdown” this season after the network hired retired Eagles center Jason Kelce.

Griffin had been at ESPN for three years and still had two years left on his deal.

One potential quick landing spot for Griffin would be NFL Network’s “GameDay Morning” studio show, as the program still has not hired a replacement for Michael Irvin.

Griffin won the Heisman Trophy in 2011 at Baylor and was the second overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft.

He led Washington to first place in the NFC East and won the Offensive Rookie of the Year, but his career was never the same after suffering a torn ACL in a wild-card playoff game against the Seahawks.

After three years in Washington, he was a backup for the Browns and Ravens, with his final NFL season coming in 2020.

Ponder had been at ESPN since 2011 and had served as the host of “Sunday NFL Countdown” since 2017.

Ponder has been outspoken on social media speaking out against transgender athletes competing in women’s sports.

Griffin and Ponder’s exits have been characterized as budgetary decisions occurring before the fiscal year concludes at the end of September.

While both of them still had time left on their contracts, these moves allow ESPN to write off the expenses right now.

The DB remembers chatting with a couple of “let go” ESPN commentators who could not work there or elsewhere, getting paid as ESPN didn’t want to put them on air.

Marchand of The Athletic with more on Ponder:

Ponder was entering the final season of a three-year deal worth more than $3 million, sources briefed on her contract said. She only worked in the prestigious role of “Sunday NFL Countdown” host and was basically off for the rest of the year. ESPN generally reserves these types of schedules for the Joe Bucks, Troy Aikmans and Peyton Mannings of its world.

“NFL Live” host Laura Rutledge and “Get Up” host Mike Greenberg are potential replacements for Ponder. Greenberg is considered the favorite, according to sources briefed on the network’s internal talks.

The buyouts of Ponder and Griffin are the only moves ESPN is making at the moment, but it could choose to shed more salary by the end of September. However, the cuts are not expected to be anywhere near the bloodletting in which around 20 big names were let go last June, including stalwarts like Jeff Van Gundy, Suzy Kolber and Jalen Rose.

There are those who wonder why Ponder felt the axe.  Kyle Becker notes her support for women in women’s sport and those who opposed her:

@kylenabecker

BREAKING: ESPN has *FIRED*  @samponder, who is one of the ONLY women at the network to speak out against biological men playing in women’s sports.

Ponder made headlines in May 2023, when she agreed with swimmer @Riley_Gaines_  speaking out against Lia Thomas participating in women’s swimming.

Ponder quote tweeted Gaines and said that it is not “hateful to demand fairness in sports for girls.”

USA Today columnist Nancy Armour attacked Ponder for her views. She claimed that they reflected “bigotry” and were a “sham.”

Ponder, who served as the host of ESPN’s NFL Countdown since 2017, responded to Armour’s criticism.

She tweeted that “biology is not bigotry” and added that “loving people does not require the absence of boundaries.”

Former ESPN colleague @sagesteele  who has become a vocal advocate for biological integrity in competitive sports, backed Ponder’s views.

“Pathetic attack on a WOMAN who is simply fighting for other WOMEN in sports,” she clapped back. ” Chooses to lead her emotions vs facts. ‘Follow the science’, right?! When in doubt, just pull the bigot/race card! Comical. Stay strong @samponder this is a lonely fight, but it’s worth it!”

ESPN claims Ponder was terminated due to “budget cuts.”

There is another, deeper, darker theory, about the fallout from the composition of last year’s CFB Playoff, that people in Tallahassee subscribe to:

@ZachCoveyTV

Ridiculous. I’m not one to speculate about FSU bias – or the lack thereof – but RGIII standing up for the Noles, and Sam Ponder who has a history of supporting FSU due to her husband, canned the same day.

Just sad.

Griffin’s wife was a track athlete at Florida State.  Ponder’s husband was an FSU QB.