AROUND THE NFL
Daily Briefing
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Per FootballOutsiders.com and its DVOA methodology, here, by percentage, are the 15 teams most likely to win the Super Bowl:
Odds to Win Super Bowl LVI
1 TB 17.7%
2 BAL 13.3%
3 KC 11.3%
4 GB 9.1%
5 BUF 7.6%
6 SEA 5.0%
7 NE 4.0%
8 SF 3.9%
9 DAL 3.4%
10 LAR 3.0%
11 NO 2.9%
12 MIN 2.9%
13 PIT 2.6%
14 MIA 2.4%
15 CLE 1.7%
Shouldn’t the Colts and Chargers be on that list?
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NFC EAST
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DALLAS
QB DAK PRESCOTT feels confident he will be there to take on the GOAT TOM BRADY on September 9. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:
Three weeks from tonight, the 2021 NFL season begins with the Buccaneers hosting the Cowboys. Quarterback Dak Prescott plans to be under center for the visiting team.
Hall of Fame scout Gil Brandt, who spent 30 years with the Cowboys, tweeted that Prescott said Wednesday he expects to be playing when the season begins. Brandt acknowledges that it will take a lot to keep Prescott from playing, but that he may not be 100 percent.
Prescott suffered a strained shoulder — specifically an injury to the lat muscle — early in camp. Simms believes Prescott has altered his throwing motion, potentially to compensate (consciously or not) for the broken right ankle suffered last year. He could be putting more arm into his throws in order to avoid putting stress on his right leg when it digs into the ground as the back end of his base.
And that’s possibly what caused an injury so unusual that the Cowboys had to consult with baseball teams about how to treat it.
Based on Prescott’s obvious irritation over limits placed on him in practice before the shoulder injury, he likely will be very impatient about getting on the field. Without him, it’s either Garrett Gilbert or Ben DiNucci at quarterback.
Or, in other words, the Buccaneers will be favored by many, many points, and they’ll still likely cover.
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NEW YORK GIANTS
Ryan Dunleavy of the New York Post thinks the Giants signed damaged goods (or at the very least fragile goods) when they inked TE KYLE RUDOLPH:
If tight end Kyle Rudolph misses the first game — or the first six games — of the season, the Giants could be holding the bill for another team’s injury mistake.
Rudolph wasn’t even dressed in practice gear Tuesday as he stood on the sideline. That he is not yet ready to join the group of injured players working on a side field is an indication of just how far away he remains after offseason foot surgery landed him on the physically unable to perform list at the start of training camp. Rehabbing players could spend a week or more building up speed and strength once they progress to joining the trainers.
Rudolph’s absence is particularly noteworthy because he missed the final four games of last season with the Vikings due to the foot injury. The Giants — and every NFL team — knew that much, but the need for surgery was not discovered until after Rudolph had a two-year, $12 million free-agent agreement in place and reported for his physical.
All contracts are pending physicals, so the Giants had every right to circle back and lower the value or turn some money into playing-time incentives to protect against a situation in which they are paying Rudolph his full-market value to miss games.
When general manager Dave Gettleman was asked Tuesday about Rudolph’s availability, he focused on the original injury and not a clear series of questions about the need for surgery and timeline for recovery. The back-and-forth was edited out of the video published on the team website.
“We knew about it all along,” Gettleman said. “We didn’t go into this blind. Do you think I do this for a hobby? We’re fine.”
The misunderstanding raised questions based on Rudolph’s comments from March, including, “It was an issue from [last] season. We can fix it in March and I won’t miss any football,” and, “Everyone expected it to heal on its own and it didn’t.” He added that the Giants honoring his handshake agreement was “one of the many reasons [to sign here] is the way this organization is run from the top down.”
The Giants later Tuesday released a written statement from Gettleman clarifying the misunderstanding: “We honored the agreement because our doctors were confident Kyle would be fine following the procedure.”
If Rudolph remains on PUP when the regular season begins — a distinct possibility — he will miss at least the first six games. If the Giants expect the 11-year veteran and red-zone threat back sooner, they could tie up a 53-man roster spot and include him in the seven game-day inactives until healthy.
The Giants begin joint practices Thursday with the Browns. It’s a first since 2018, when the Giants and Lions got together in Detroit — and the Lions used the setting to scout DL Romeo Okwara, who has had 19 sacks in three seasons since he was claimed off waivers.
So, will the Giants be looking for the next hidden gem from the Browns, then from the Patriots in joint practices next week?
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PHILADELPHIA
Don’t blame QB JALEN HURTS for the Eagles’ lack of points Thursday night against the Patriots. He was at the hospital. Adam Maya of NFL.com:
Jalen Hurts has been trying to make a case to be the Eagles’ quarterback of the present and future this preseason. That was put on pause Thursday.
Philadelphia’s presumed starter was ruled out against the Patriots shortly after kickoff and sent to the hospital with an illness.
Eagles coach Nick Sirianni told reporters afterward that Hurts wasn’t feeling well when he arrived at Lincoln Financial Field, but wanted to go through warmups in an attempt to play. With pain in his stomach lingering, the second-year-QB left the stadium to get evaluated. The team said the issue is not COVID-19 related, NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo reported.
“Everything’s good, and he’s going to be OK,” Sirianni said. “He had pain in his abdomen, which, for a guy like that to tell us, he’s a tough guy, so it must have been hurting him pretty good for him to let us know about that.”
After Hurts was scratched, starting offensive linemen Jason Kelce , Brandon Brooks and Lane Johnson were also held out. The entire offense struggled in their absence. Veteran Joe Flacco got the spot start and completed 10 of 17 for 83 yards and an interception in the Eagles’ 35-0 loss. Nick Mullens played the second half and went 5 of 10 for 27 yards and also threw an INT.
Hurts played in just two series in Philly’s preseason opener last week versus the Steelers, completing 3 of 7 passes for 54 yards. Though the 2020 second-rounder has gotten the lion’s share of first-team reps in practice, Sirianni has thus far held off on naming a starter for the season opener.
The first-year coach was noncommittal about whether Hurts would play in the team’s final preseason game next Friday, but said the two practices with the Jets beforehand will help his evaluation for Week 1.
“Those are like games, those (joint) practices are like games, so he’s going to be able to get two more there,” Sirianni said. “So I’m pretty confident that we’ll get a lot of good work against the Jets.”
Jason LaCanfora of CBSSports.com thinks Hurts is the man:
Jalen Hurts being a late scratch Thursday night was disappointing for all, but it certainly seemed as if the youngster’s absence only strengthened his grip on the Eagles’ starting job.
The second-year quarterback was scheduled for duty, and even warmed up normally, but did not face the Patriots due to an illness. It was nothing major, but enough to keep him out, and given the Eagles’ struggles on the offensive line — snapping and blocking — having the potential franchise QB sit this out was prudent. Life was difficult for Joe Flacco all around, getting pummeled on the first drive trying to make a play on a bad snap that led to a turnover, throwing an interception and being a part of a hodge-podge unit that was overwhelmed by New England’s starting defense.
From what I saw of Hurts earlier in the week, in the joint practices with the Patriots leading up to this exhibition game, he looks up to the task. Hurts was the most consistently effective quarterback on display in those sessions, excelling in special situations as well as between the 20s, and his athleticism and unpredictable style was a problem for the Patriots. Particularly on designed boots and roll-outs, when Hurts went to his right, bad things happened to the opposing defense.
Hurts could make plays flipping the ball to running back Miles Sanders, or by keeping it himself, and he is at ease throwing on the run, making pretty passes in intermediate quadrants and deep down the sideline as well. Yeah, it does cut the field off, somewhat, but Hurts is not averse to firing across his body to the opposite side if need be, and the energy he brought to the huddle and the way his teammates responded to him (both offense and defense from the sidelines) was infectious.
Oh, and some of the Patriots noticed, too.
“Jalen is a person I followed all through college,” Patriots quarterback Cam Newton said, “and hearing so much about him really in high school from the Houston area … For me to see him out there today it’s always love, and it’s always going to be love.”
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WASHINGTON
WFT President Jason Wright says the final name chosen to re-brand Washington may not come from the eight “finalists” that showed up on a board in a team video.
Jason Wright
@whoisjwright
Just to be clear, because everyone keeps asking, we are down to and working through a final three but this is no form of final 8 list. These are just a selection of names that happened to show up in the video our team produced.
Front Office Sports
The Washington Football Team has reportedly narrowed their list of potential names down to 3 options, per the team’s “Making the Brand” series.
Their finalists come from these eight:
– Armada
– Presidents
– Brigade
– RedHogs
– Commanders
– RedWolves
– Defenders
– WFT
– – –
John Keim of ESPN.com says that QB RYAN FITZPATRICK is beginning to get a rhythm with his new receivers:
As Washington Football Team quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick checked out the defense before the snap, he noticed the coverage being played against tight end Logan Thomas, isolated on the right side. The defensive back was aligned to Thomas’ inside, leaving a lot of room on the outside for Thomas. And Fitzpatrick knew where Thomas would get to — and when.
In a sign of his comfort level with his new teammates, Fitzpatrick didn’t hesitate. He dropped back, held the safety with his eyes for a split second, then lofted a perfect back-shoulder toss to Thomas for a 24-yard gain in Washington’s preseason opener against the New England Patriots last week.
Earlier in the game, in another moment of synchronicity, Fitzpatrick led wide receiver Terry McLaurin into a 22-yard completion with a well-placed ball — not to where McLaurin was, but to where he was headed and just to the other side of a linebacker underneath.
“Those were probably the two best throws that highlight the fact that we’re feeling a little bit more comfortable on offense with each other,” Fitzpatrick said.
This is what Washington had hoped to see from Fitzpatrick this summer, after a few bumpy days in the spring as he learned yet another offense with his ninth NFL team.
“There’s a couple reads and throws the way they do things here that made me scratch my head at first, that I totally get them and I’m on board with now,” he said. “They look at football differently than I ever have.”
If Washington is going to build on its 7-9 finish from last season, Fitzpatrick must be consistent for 17 games. Washington’s defense should be good, but it also plays a tougher schedule that, barring injuries, will feature quarterbacks such as Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs), Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills), Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks), Tom Brady (Tampa Bay Buccaneers), Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers), Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers), Derek Carr (Las Vegas Raiders) and Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys, twice).
That’s why seeing a rhythm develop between Fitzpatrick and his wide receivers has been crucial. In practices, it is clear he trusts McLaurin and Thomas as well as slot receiver Adam Humphries.
“He has a lot of anticipation,” McLaurin said.
The third-year wide receiver then cited the two pass plays against New England.
“When I came out of that in cut, the ball was right there on the opposite side of that backer,” McLaurin said. “Which was nice for me, because you get a chance to catch the ball and run. Obviously he knows the scheme. But the anticipation, the details of the routing, and then getting the chemistry with the rest of our receivers, that’s what we’re continuing to work out. When you see him making those anticipatory throws, those back-shoulder throws that he’s been hitting with Logan, those are tough to defend.”
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NFC SOUTH
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TAMPA BAY
More fights at the joint practices between the Buccaneers and Titans per ESPN.com:
Tempers flared on Day 2 of joint practices between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Tennessee Titans in Tampa, resulting in five altercations that had to be broken up despite both Bucs coach Bruce Arians and Titans coach Mike Vrabel expressing zero tolerance for fighting before the practices.
“A lot of grown men competing with emotion. Things happen. Just got to protect your brothers,” said Bucs inside linebacker Devin White.
Said Bucs cornerback Jamel Dean: “It’s hot, it’s intense and we’re just competitors. Yesterday I feel like we didn’t play to our standards, so there was a big emphasis on coming out there today.”
Several Bucs players echoed Dean’s sentiments, saying they felt like the Titans practiced with more intensity Wednesday. But Thursday was a reversal, with the Bucs appearing to have the upper hand, as Arians indicated starters would not play Saturday and needed to show their effort in practice Thursday.
“The intensity was much higher today,” said wide receiver Chris Godwin. “I feel like it always is on the second day of joint practices in the heat like this, tempers did kind of get going, and guys were just competitive.”
Said Vrabel: “It sucked. From what I saw, we didn’t do very well offensively. I don’t think we competed like we did yesterday. Probably a lot of reasons. But just not good enough. Clearly they were better today. We’ll see how we respond and take to coaching and play on Saturday.”
Things got heated early.
During a one-on-one against Titans cornerback Chris Jackson, Bucs wide receiver Antonio Brown complained that he was being held. Brown confronted Jackson, ripping his helmet off and throwing punches before Clayton Geathers attempted to break it up. Bucs training camp intern Louis Murphy pulled Brown off of Jackson. Brown briefly left the practice to cool down before returning.
Next came a dust-up between Titans wide receiver Fred Brown and Bucs cornerback Herb Miller during a punt period that was taken to the ground, with Brown on top. Then, on another special teams play, Bucs inside linebacker K.J. Britt and Titans linebacker Nick Dzubnar needed to be separated.
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AFC WEST
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DENVER
QB DREW LOCK is closing in on the starting job. Or so thinks Zac Stevens of DNVR_Broncos.
@ZacStevensDNVR
Really starting to feel like if Drew Lock plays well on Saturday against the Seahwaks, he will be the Broncos’ starting quarterback.
And this tweet:
@DNVR__Broncos
What does Drew Lock need to do against Seattle to show he’s taken enough steps to become the starter?
“Play well,” according to Pat Shurmur.
Troy Renck of TheDenverChannel concurs:
I am not sure it (Even Steven) applies anymore to the derby. It has not been seismic, but it appears there’s been a slight shift in the quarterback race. Following his terrific performance against the Vikings and recent reps in practice, it feels like it’s Lock’s job to lose at Seattle — even if Teddy Bridgewater plays well.
Of course, Seattle matters. But Lock has put himself in a good position as this competition enters the stretch run. So what, offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur was asked, does Lock need to do to secure the top spot?
“Play well, right? Unfortunately, you guys are charged with the math (of counting every throw and rep each day). He just needs to play well,” Shurmur said.
Against the Vikings, Lock demonstrated growth, showed improvement, and “did all things we are asking of him.” Now comes the hard part for Lock. Staying consistent.
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LAS VEGAS
The coaches were not happy with the altercations in the joint Raiders-Rams practices.
Thursday’s joint practice between the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Rams got a bit chippy. During a special teams period of the practice, tempers flared and a scuffle broke out between the two clubs. That forced head coach Jon Gruden to end the joint session for his Raiders early, sending his team to the buses. The Rams, meanwhile, finished practice, per reporters on the ground.
“I thought we had great work today until special teams, right at the end of the special teams period,” Gruden said, via NFL.com. “I have no idea what that was, but that’s enough of that crap. That’s not good for football, that’s not good for anything, that’s the end of that practice session.”
Gruden said there was no message to deliver to his team following the altercation, but reiterated that it was unacceptable.
“There’s no message. They know. They know better,” he said. “Everybody knows better. And again, it wasn’t everybody fighting. It’ll be on TV. You’ll see a bunch of guys screaming and yelling. But it was two guys in a special teams period, and then it was a lot of trash-talking that escalated. It’s just sickening, really. It’s just stupidity. I’m done with that. It’s just child’s play to me.”
Rams head coach Sean McVay was a bit more subdued with his comments about the fight, saying “It’s unfortunate we didn’t get to finish up (the joint session), but that’s kind of where I’ll leave that at.”
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AFC NORTH
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BALTIMORE
There is regular cramping, and then there is what TE MARK ANDREWS suffered on Thursday in humid South Carolina. Todd Karpovich of SI.com:
Ravens tight end Mark Andrews suffered “serious cramping” in the joint practice with the Carolina Panthers on Aug. 19.
He had to be helped from the field with trainers. Andrews reportedly went into the medical tent with an ambulance nearby. His status for the game against Carolina is uncertain.
“Mark is cramping,” Ravens coach John Harbaugh said. “He has some pretty serious cramping going on. So, he has to work through it. The humidity really shot up, and obviously, he’s working super hard. [We] just have to get that calmed down a little bit.”
Ravens guard Kevin Zeitler added: “It’s always unfortunate. Camp is a hard time. Down here in South Carolina, it’s hot as heck. But it does show one thing: he worked his ass off down here and he wasn’t worried about it. I trust the doctors and everyone to get him right.”
Andrews has been one of the team’s most dominant players in training camp. He has caught numerous passes in double coverage and has been a force in red-zone drills.
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CLEVELAND
LB JARED PHILLIPS is done for the year with a torn biceps. Josh Alper ofProFootballTalk.com:
Browns left tackle Jedrick Wills sees better things ahead of him in his second NFL season, but another member of the 2020 draft class is set to miss all of the upcoming season.
Adam Schefter of ESPN reports that linebacker Jacob Phillips tore his biceps tendon. Phillips was a third-round pick last year.
Phillips played nine games and made three starts as a rookie. He had 25 tackles and a quarterback hit in those appearances. He started the preseason opener and had one tackle in 23 defensive snaps.
Mack Wilson, Anthony Walker, Sione Takitaki, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Elijah Lee, and Malcolm Smith are still on hand at linebacker in Cleveland.
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AFC SOUTH
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HOUSTON
Partly because of the team’s void elsewhere, rookie QB DAVIS MILLS is a player of interest. Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com:
As David Culley watched practice on Wednesday, the Houston Texans’ coach was impressed by parts of rookie quarterback Davis Mills’ performance.
The Texans didn’t necessarily need a quarterback when they took Mills with their first pick in this year’s draft, but he was the classic “best player available.” The third-rounder stood out because of the intangibles.
One tangible thing he has to improve on: turnovers.
“He’s having a really good day in practice yesterday, and he had that one bad throw yesterday, an interception during one of the periods right here,” Culley said. “But as I said before, he’s a heck of a guy from a standpoint of understanding and brushing those things off and coming back with the next-play mentality.”
And while Culley credited Mills with the ability to put the interception behind him and move on to the next play, he was quick to point out where he needs to see improvement.
“We’ve got to eliminate those kind of things,” Culley said. “And I expected him to be more consistent and take better care of the ball.”
While Tyrod Taylor will be the Texans’ Week 1 starter, the team faces an interesting decision about when Mills will play. While Houston may have a top pick and take a quarterback regardless of what Mills shows this season, it is important for the franchise to figure out whether Mills can be a part of their future plans at the position. If Mills cannot show consistency and ability to take care of the ball in practice and during the preseason games, it will ultimately be a harder decision for the front office and coaching staff to make.
In his first preseason game, Mills played 36 snaps and completed 11 of 22 passes for 112 yards and an interception. Perhaps his most impressive play, offensive coordinator Tim Kelly said, was simply getting back out on the field after he was sacked on the second snap he played.
“Davis came in and saw his first, ‘Oh my gosh, this is the NFL’ moment on that three-step, then ran through, he got hit, came off the field,” Kelly said. “I’m like, ‘Did that hurt? You OK?’ And he was like, ‘No.’ So he was fine after he took his first hit.”
The word used to describe Saturday night performance in Green Bay was inconsistent. Mills made some impressive throws on third down to extend plays but also missed several shorter throws throughout the game.
One area Kelly said Mills has done well in is his command of the huddle and grasp of the Texans’ offense.
“He’s able to articulate the playcall, which sometimes for us can be kind of wordy, especially in some of those situational football spots,” Kelly said. “He’s done a great job in the huddle communicating and all that good stuff.”
While Culley hasn’t said how much playing time Taylor and Mills will see on Saturday against the Cowboys, Kelly said it’s important for Mills to “accumulate as many reps as possible” because he played 14 games at Stanford. Kelly said the more time Mills can spend on the field, the more chances the rookie will have to “grow and develop.”
“With Davis [we want to see him] just continue to cut back on mistakes and don’t have my missed throws,” Kelly said. “I think going back and watching the tape, there was probably one or two throws in particular that come to mind right now that immediately he would want back. He’s going to make those throws nine out of 10 times. It just so happened that on that one screen, the ball slipped out of his hands.
“To eliminate that, let’s get rid of those throws, let’s make those plays, and then again, continue to grow in his patience in the pocket.”
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JACKSONVILLE
Don’t make too much of QB TREVOR LAWRENCE getting the start again this week says OC Darrell Bevall.
The Jaguars started Trevor Lawrence at quarterback in the team’s first preseason game and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell said on Thursday that the first overall pick of this year’s draft is likely to start against the Saints on Monday night.
Bevell was quick to note that starting Lawrence in these games isn’t a sign that the team has made a decision on their quarterback for Week 1. While just about everyone expects Lawrence to have that job, the Jaguars say he’s still competing with Gardner Minshew for the No. 1 job in Jacksonville.
“We’re still going to handle it that way until we end up making the final decision,” Bevell said, via John Reid of the Florida Times-Union. “Right now, they are still status quo. We’re trying to make everybody better. We want competition at each and every position. Both guys are getting better because of it.”
Bevell said that he thought “the whole game experience” was important for Lawrence’s growth and that he thinks the rookie will continue to improve as a result of being exposed to opposing defenses. That process wouldn’t come to an end in the preseason, which makes it all the likelier that the Jaguars will choose to roll with the player they made the long-term plan at quarterback once the dust settles on this summer’s competition.
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AFC EAST
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NEW ENGLAND
Dan Wetzel of YahooSports.com is impressed with both Patriots QB in Thursday’s dismantling of the Eagles:
Cam Newton looks like he should be New England’s starting quarterback. At least for now. Maybe. Perhaps.
And the uncertainty has nothing to do with Newton, who played very well in Thursday’s 35-0 Patriots victory over the Philadelphia Eagles. It’s just that rookie Mac Jones looked just as good — and with greater potential — as well.
Put it this way: whatever represented Bill Belichick’s best-case scenario out of the quarterback position might have been exceeded. This is the kind of QB competition a coach wants.
The hotshot rookie looks like he may be as good as hoped. And the veteran starter isn’t backing down or getting rattled just because someone new is coming for his job. Newton may get replaced at some point this season, but based on his performance against Philly, he’s going to make Jones earn it.
“Just tried to do my job,” Newton said. “That’s all it is.”
The Eagles played a role in all of this, of course. Minus numerous starters, their defense was embarrassing. By the middle of the third quarter, the Patriots’ two quarterbacks had combined to go 20-of-25, the run game was averaging 5 yards a carry and the scoreboard read 25-zip.
None of that matters though.
What does is that Newton looked like he still had some pop in his throws and ran the offense with the efficiency you’d expect out of a former league MVP in his 11th season. Cam went 8-of-9 for 103 yards and a touchdown. His 11.4 yards per attempt show he was willing to push the ball downfield a bit.
And while he didn’t show it against the Eagles, his rushing ability adds an extra dynamic to an offense that should be very run-centric.
He’s your Week 1 starter because … why wouldn’t he be?
If there is no need to rush Jones, the 15th pick overall draft pick out of Alabama, then you don’t rush it. Sounds good, except Jones spent the second and third quarters Thursday trying to give the Patriots a reason to consider it.
Jones went 13-of-19 for 146 yards. At least three of those incompletions could be classified as drops.
His arm strength stood out. There was a beautiful deep ball to N’Keal Harry that fell incomplete but not due to Jones. There was a fastball that split a couple defenders in the third quarter. There was an ability to step up in the pocket and complete second-tier strikes.
Jones was hyped as something of a game manager coming out of Bama, where he was surrounded by an outrageous amount of talent within the Nick Saban machine.
He’s proving to be more than that. His first drive Thursday was a 17-play, 91-yard, 9:04 march to the end zone that coaches dream about. The most important play came early, when facing third-and-13 from his own 6-yard line, Jones hit Harry for 19 yards.
“I’ve been around Mac long enough now that I’m not really surprised,” said wide receiver Jakobi Meyers. “That was the expectation when they drafted him … I’m happy to see him come out and put a good product on the field … Cam, Mac, all of us. I think we are all getting better day by day.”
He’s going to be an NFL starter and possibly a good one for a long time. If he begins to throw harder as he becomes more comfortable in the pro game, then he is going to push that start date to happen quickly.
The last time New England had an in-season quarterbacking change it was Drew Bledsoe as the proven vet and Tom Brady as the unknown rookie. However, Bledsoe wasn’t at the end of his career the way Newton is. And Brady hadn’t shown the obvious promise that Jones has. It took an injury to flip the depth chart.
Jones is unlikely to become Brady because it’s unlikely anyone becomes Brady. He is going to keep making himself hard to ignore though, which Brady never really did until he finally got on the field.
Jones’ day will not come because of an emergency, but because Belichick believes he gives the Pats the best opportunity to win.
In New England, that’s what every decision boils down to, as the coach often reminds.
Right now, Newton is playing well enough to hold onto his starting spot. He looks good enough to win some games.
It’s already closer though — and at a higher level for both QBs — than maybe even the most ambitious projections expected. This is going to be interesting.
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THIS AND THAT
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FANTASY BREAKOUT WRs
From Alex Gelhar of YahooSports.com:
Every summer, the fantasy industry thirsts for breakout players like sweaty kids thirst for lemonade on a humid July afternoon. Writers from all across the web are more than happy to satisfy that thirst with punchy lists populated with promising young players poised to pop off on Sundays this fall.
What you’re about to read is my offering of lemonade this summer. Hopefully, I got the recipe just right.
As I did last year, I’ll provide a deeper look at some of my top picks, add other names to consider, and highlight a few rookies who have a chance to hit the ground running. Before the list though, I highlight some common traits among past breakouts at the position.
Frequent breakout indicators
Strong finish to end the year prior. Oftentimes players who end the year on a high statistical note will carry that success into the upcoming season.
Lack of an established No. 1 target. When there is no true alpha on a team,that opens the door for a breakout star to step in and claim the throne. Think Terry McLaurin on the Washington Football Team last season.
Vacated or up-for-grabs targets. If a player is on a team with a sudden amount of open opportunities following the departure of a big-name player (i.e. Calvin Ridley after the Falcons traded Julio Jones) their path to a breakout season is much easier.
Strong draft/athletic pedigree. The NFL draft is also far from an exact science, but the draft capital a team spends on a player, and that player’s athletic profile, can sometimes indicate future success.
With these ideas in mind, let’s take a look at some breakout candidates for the upcoming season.
Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers
Expectations for Aiyuk were high after the 49ers selected him in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Unfortunately, a hamstring injury before the season delayed Aiyuk’s ascent. Over his first five games played he averaged a paltry five targets and 33 yards per game, finding the end zone just once. Over his final six games played he averaged 7.5 targets and just shy of 95 yards per game while hitting paydirt four times (Aiyuk sprained his ankle in the first quarter of Week 16, and then was out in Week 17).
At the end of the year, Aiyuk led the 49ers in targets with 96 (17.3%). Of course, the lengthy absences of George Kittle and Deebo Samuel contributed to Aiyuk’s torrid second half of the season, but the rookie proved he was more than capable of being a big-play option for an offense with serious deficiencies at quarterback (Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard combined for 430 attempts last season).
In 2021, the 49ers should have more stability at quarterback with either a healthy Jimmy Garoppolo or the exciting rookie Trey Lance commanding Kyle Shanahan’s offense. Even with Samuel and Kittle returning, Aiyuk should still have a role to play. He led the team with 12 targets of 20-plus yards downfield in 2020, which could help cement him as a go-to option on play-action deep shots. Aiyuk isn’t a slam-dunk breakout candidate given that he plays in a loaded, run-first offense, but the pieces are there for a big boost to his stats in Year 2.
Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears
Anthony Miller was a popular breakout candidate last year, but it was rookie Darnell Mooney who swooped in and finished second on the Bears in targets (98, 16.4% share), receptions (61), and receiving yards (631). Mooney did all of this despite starting nine games and catching passes from Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky. While Foles remains in the picture, Andy Dalton is currently pegged as the Week 1 starter. And most of the football world is waiting with bated breath for rookie Justin Fields to take over. Either figures to be an upgrade over Mooney’s situation last year, with Dalton at least providing some stability and some accuracy.
At 5-foot-10, 176 pounds, Mooney doesn’t jump off the page as a prototypical wide receiver, but after only one year, he put together tape that shows he is already a fantastic technician at the position. Another year of experience, polish, and improved quarterback play could result in a stellar fantasy season from last year’s unexpected star — especially after the Bears traded Miller to the Texans.
Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers
You could say that Claypool broke out as a rookie considering he scored 11 total touchdowns, but with just a 63% snap share and 16.7% target share in 2020, there’s clearly room for this electrifying young star to grow. JuJu Smith-Schuster re-signing with the Steelers hurts Claypool’s breakout odds a bit, as does Ben Roethlisberger’s potential noodle arm as the future Hall of Famer enters his age-39 season less than two years removed from unique and serious elbow surgery.
Nevertheless, Claypool’s mix of rare size and athleticism (6-foot-4, 238 pounds, 4.42 40-yard dash, 40.5-inch vertical leap) alone should be enough to entice fantasy heads. Add in more potential playing time as the Steelers look for more ways to put the ball in Claypool’s hands, and the picture of a Claypool breakout becomes more clear. The Steelers play in a tough division that features two playoff teams from 2020 (Browns, Ravens) and a talented young offense in the Bengals. That schedule could feature more higher-scoring affairs, giving Claypool more chances to post big fantasy totals.
Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos
While many may be haunted by Jeudy’s spell of bad drops late in the season, there is a lot more promise from his rookie season to look back on. Jeudy led the team in targets with 113 and put his clinical route-running on display against NFL coverage. If Jeudy can improve upon his rookie season and benefit from more stable quarterback play from Teddy Bridgewater, he may leap into fantasy stardom.
Mecole Hardman, Kansas City Chiefs
Hardman has had the eye of the fantasy community for years, but he has yet to hit it big. With Sammy Watkins out of the picture, could this be Hardman’s year to ascend to the No. 2 wide receiver role behind Tyreek Hill? While Hardman did play 60% or more of the snaps in each of the final two games of the season, when Hill and Travis Kelce were out in Week 17, both DeMarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle both out-snapped Hardman. Hardman played just 45% of the team’s snaps in 2020, so he’ll need a more sizable weekly role if he is to break out in 2021.
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2022 FREE AGENCY
Yesterday, we had Todd McShay’s top 50 draft prospects. Today, Gregg Rosenthal ofNFL.com looks at the possible free agent crop:
An early look at the 2022 free agent class has no headliners at quarterback, unlike a year ago. It will be nearly impossible to find help in the interior lines on offense or defense. But there are plenty of enticing pass catchers and defensive backs, especially at safety.
Many of the top names on the list below won’t make it to free agency because of the franchise tag. Some of them (T.J. Watt) could be signed in the next few weeks. A quick glance back at my top-25 list at this point last year shows that only five (!) of those players changed teams, with most getting big new contracts to stay put. The NFL rules make it so that free agency is rarely free.
Here goes nothing!
1 T.J. Watt
Pittsburgh Steelers · OLB · Age 26
The list of the best defensive-front draft picks over the last decade starts with T.J.’s brother in 2011, goes to Aaron Donald in 2014 and then probably leads right here. I’d be shocked if Watt doesn’t have a new contract with the Steelers before Week 1.
2 Davante Adams
Green Bay Packers · WR · Age 28
Always a great route runner, Adams is tying his latest voyage to free agency with the recognition that he may be the best receiver in football. He’s a lot more likely to get his new contract in Green Bay than Aaron Rodgers.
3 Terron Armstead
New Orleans Saints · OT · Age 30
Armstead making the “Top 100 Players” list on NFL Network for the first time this year at No. 79 is a reminder that few players have been more criminally underrated, even by his peers. Only injury woes could prevent him from becoming the highest-paid tackle in football.
4 Allen Robinson
Chicago Bears · WR · Age 27
A top-10 wideout who can excel everywhere — especially deep down the field — Robinson may prove so valuable to Justin Fields’ development that the Bears simply can’t let him walk away even if they have to use the franchise tag on him again.
5 Courtland Sutton
Denver Broncos · WR · Age 25
Even if Sutton’s numbers go down in a crowded Broncos offense this year, prospective teams should consider it a good thing his first year post-ACL surgery will be out of the way before hitting the open market.
6 Tyrann Mathieu
Kansas City Chiefs · S · Age 29
The Honey Badger can roam anywhere — although at this point, I’d hate to see him divorced from defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who knows just how to unlock his magic. Turning 30 next May, Mathieu is a rangy, heady player in the mold of Devin McCourty, a safety who has excelled into his mid-30s.
7 Orlando Brown
Kansas City Chiefs · OT · Age 25
The Chiefs are under pressure to re-sign Brown after giving up a first-round pick for him. There are some questions how he’ll hold up as a pass protector with Patrick Mahomes dropping back 40-plus times per game, but Brown is established as one of the nastiest run blockers in football.
8 Chris Godwin
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · WR · Age 25
His numbers went down in the transition from Jameis Winston to Tom Brady, but once the playoffs started, Godwin emerged as the Bucs’ most important target.
9 Jessie Bates
Cincinnati Bengals · S · Age 24
I’m glad Jamal Adams signed an extension because I kept going back and forth on whether he or Bates should be ranked higher. Deep-coverage safeties like Bates feel more valuable than ever in today’s NFL and there aren’t many great ones.
10 Stephon Gilmore
New England Patriots · CB · Age 30
There’s no doubting the 2019 Defensive Player of the Year’s body of work, but he will turn 32 years old next season and is coming off a serious torn quad surgery that has kept him off the field for seven months and running.
11 Duane Brown
Seattle Seahawks · OT · Age 35
It is so hard to find a quality blindside protector, and Brown is still so good at it, even at age 35. He appears to be on the Andrew Whitworth/Jason Peters left tackle plan of excelling at the position into your late 30s. Don’t be surprised if he gets a raise before Week 1.
12 Mark Andrews
Baltimore Ravens · TE · Age 25
A few ill-timed playoff drops aside, Andrews has every skill in the toolbox to make the jump to a top-five tight end this season. (If he’s not there already.)
13 Brandon Scherff
Washington Football Team · OG · Age 29
A dearth of interior O-line options helps Scherff’s market value, but he’s obviously a standout player, considering this is his second straight season on the franchise tag. Pretty extraordinary for a guard.
14 Jordan Mailata
Philadelphia Eagles · OT · Age 24
No better current NFL example of Bill Parcells’ “Planet Theory.” There just aren’t many humans walking the Earth with Mailata’s combination of size and movement skills. While this ranking admittedly projects another big step from the former rugby player who only picked up football in 2017, his rapid ascension as part of the International Player Pathway Program indicates the left tackle can still get a lot better.
15 Wyatt Teller
Cleveland Browns · OG · Age 26
Drafted in the fifth round by the Bills in 2018, Teller’s career changed with a trade to Cleveland, especially once Bill Callahan showed up last season as the Browns’ offensive line coach. PFF and OL experts alike believed he was one of the best guards in football in 2020. If he backs that up again, this ranking will go even higher.
16 Marcus Williams
New Orleans Saints · S · Age 24
Quality safeties don’t get the respect in the open market they deserve, but the Saints made a telling show of faith in Williams when they gave him the franchise tag during an offseason in which they were slashing salary everywhere else. He’s a plus starter in his prime — those are rare in free agency.
17 Marshon Lattimore
New Orleans Saints · CB · Age 25
I struggled to assess Lattimore. His traits are obvious and his rookie year was sensational. Since then, he’s been up-and-down while asked to cover the opposition’s best, and his March arrest on a weapons charge is a red flag. The training camp buzz is that he’s gearing up for a big year in 2021.
18 Chandler Jones
Arizona Cardinals · OLB · Age 31
This ranking figures to go way up or possibly way down after this season. Jones missed most of 2020 with a torn biceps, but the injury came after one of the worst months of play in his career. Was that evidence of decline or a misleading small sample size?
19 J.C. Jackson
New England Patriots · CB · Age 25
Jackson is a gambler, incredibly competitive and has great ball skills. He could be prone to streaky play away from Bill Belichick’s scheme and — more importantly — away from the protection playing opposite Stephon Gilmore provides.
20 Michael Gallup
Dallas Cowboys · WR · Age 25
Outside receivers who can make plays deep down the field get paid a lot more in free agency than chain movers. Gallup can do it all, and the Cowboys may not be able to afford him because of their star-filled offense.
21 Carlton Davis
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · CB · Age 24
It means a lot that Bruce Arians and Todd Bowles treat Davis as their CB1. He’s competitive and physical and should have a long career as a starter.
22 Robby Anderson
Carolina Panthers · WR · Age 28
Year 1 in Carolina proved Anderson is not just a deep threat. He’s a versatile speedster in his prime who can fit in any offense.
23 Dallas Goedert
Philadelphia Eagles · TE · Age 26
The Eagles should want to re-sign Jordan Mailata and/or Goedert ASAP because they are both set up to see their value explode. Every team needs a tight end like Goedert, who can do it all and is just entering his prime.
24 Jadeveon Clowney
Cleveland Browns · DE · Age 28
Clowney impacts the game when healthy — as long as you don’t expect 15 sacks — but he just hasn’t been fully healthy in two years. Still just 28, the former No. 1 overall pick set himself up for one more long-term contract by joining the Browns to play opposite Myles Garrett for a season.
25 Von Miller
Denver Broncos · OLB · Age 32
It would just feel wrong for Miller to not make this list. When we last saw the surefire Hall of Famer, his pass-rush speed had fallen off, but he was still a great No. 2 defensive end with ferocious run-stopping ability.
JUST MISSED: Marcus Maye, S, New York Jets; Brian O’Neill, OT, Minnesota Vikings; Will Fuller, WR, Miami Dolphins; Harrison Smith, S, Minnesota Vikings; Jameis Winston, QB, New Orleans Saints; JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers; Dont’a Hightower, LB, New England Patriots; Mike Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers; Anthony Barr, LB, Minnesota Vikings; Evan Engram, TE, New York Giants; Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Dallas Cowboys; Kyle Fuller, CB, Denver Broncos; Mike Gesicki, TE, Miami Dolphins; D.J. Chark, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars, Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers.
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