The NFL announced the eight finalists for this season’s Art Rooney Sportsmanship Award on Thursday.

The award is given to the player who best demonstrates the qualities of on-field sportsmanship, including fair play, respect for the game and opponents, and integrity in competition. All 32 teams have a nominee and a panel comprised of former NFL players Warrick Dunn, Larry Fitzgerald, Curtis Martin and Leonard Wheeler select the finalists for the award named after the late Steelers founder.

Cardinals safety Budda Baker, Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby, 49ers fullback Kyle Juszczyk, Chargers linebacker Khalil Mack, Jets linebacker C.J. Mosley, Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott, Seahawks linebacker Bobby Wagner, and Ravens guard Kevin Zeitler are this year’s finalists. It’s the second time Crosby has been a finalist and the fourth time for Juszczyk.

CHICAGO

Seven anonymous GMs helpfully tell Charles Robinson of YahooSports.com that the Bears should trade QB JUSTIN FIELDS and start over at QB:

After a rough three-game start to the NFL season, Justin Fields has pieced together an argument, one that says that despite some inconsistency, he is getting better as a quarterback.

He’s missing fewer wide-open throws. He’s playing more patient in the pocket and drifting less. He’s running to compliment and balance his game, rather than falling out of structure to hunt plays. With 34 starts now under his belt for the Chicago Bears, you can draw a line between two 17-game samples — which would represent two full NFL seasons — and see that his second 17 is markedly better than his first. After his next four games to conclude the 2024 season, we will find out if the Bears are buying the argument that he’s worth passing on Caleb Williams with the No. 1 overall pick.

At least seven NFL general managers aren’t convinced. And the consensus is that it’s not really a close decision.

“It would be a clear-cut decision to draft Caleb for me,” an AFC general manager said. “The fact that we’re in Year 3 and [they] don’t want to exercise the fifth-year option tells me what I need to know. I just don’t think Fields can win consistently as a passer, even though he is gifted physically.”

“[Caleb Williams] worries me, but he is definitely talented,” an NFC general manager said. “It just buys you more time and a much cheaper contract to keep adding pieces to build the team.”

“When you pass on talented quarterbacks to lean into a guy’s development, which the Bears did when they traded No. 1 last year, you have to be completely sure of that decision to do it a second time,” another AFC general manager said. “They might not have taken C.J. Stroud with the first pick last [offseason], but he was there for them to do it. Caleb Williams is a no-brainer, and if they get the top pick, he’s there for them. Sometimes the gamble is continuing to pass on players. Fields doesn’t get over the hump, you don’t want to be the guys that passed on both Stroud and Caleb Williams.”

The GMs offered a multitude of reasons to trade Fields and pick Williams: the considerable talent Caleb Williams brings to the table, his more refined acumen as a passer, the opportunity to reset with a rookie quarterback contract, needing to make a fifth-year option decision on Fields this spring, when it appears more data is still necessary … on and on.

Another NFC general manager pointed out a psychological aspect of this crossroads: Bears GM Ryan Poles hasn’t drafted his own quarterback — Fields was the selection of the previous regime — yet his job status is directly impacted by Fields’ development.

“Nobody wants to be judged or fired because they didn’t make the previous guy’s draft picks work,” the NFC GM said. “Especially quarterback and head coach — if it’s not working out or it’s lagging, you should get an opportunity at changing it your way. Quarterbacks and head coaches are so much of your culture, so it’s kind of hard when you didn’t put those pieces in place and you’re taking the hits anyway.”

Of course, none of these GMs knows Fields better than Poles. They’re looking at the struggle for improvement from the outside. Poles could be thrilled with the strides Fields has made with DJ Moore and other weapons, seeing Fields’ fifth-year option as viable just based on this season’s progress. Poles could also feel the temptation to again deal a No. 1 overall pick for more assets (as he did last year) that will continue to stack talent all over the depth chart, rather than concentrate it in one player at the quarterback spot.

Whatever his thinking, there’s little doubt that Poles will have a decision on his hands. The Carolina Panthers — whose 2024 first-round pick is owned by the Bears — are now two full games ahead of the New England Patriots for the No. 1 spot in the draft, and the Panthers’ four remaining games on the schedule are all against teams currently in the thick of the playoff hunt. It’s more than reasonable to conclude that the Panthers aren’t going to start beating superior teams and snap off enough wins to jeopardize that draft slot.

That means that if Poles believes Caleb Williams is a better quarterback than Fields, he has two questions to ask himself.

What other teams could be in the Justin Fields market?

A few general managers have brought up the Philadelphia Eagles as running an offense that would best suit the full development of Fields. And by extension, the Indianapolis Colts do as well, since their head coach, Shane Steichen, was running the Eagles’ offense when it was molded around Jalen Hurts in 2021 and 2022. Unfortunately for Fields, both the Eagles and Colts have their young franchise quarterbacks locked in place, so that effectively shuts him out of those offenses.

Until it doesn’t.

Current Eagles offensive coordinator Brian Johnson is going to be a hot name in the next head-coaching interview cycle, thanks to spending two years as Hurts’ quarterbacks coach before ascending to the offensive coordinator job this season following Steichen’s departure. Not only is Johnson extremely versed in the Eagles’ scheme, but he also arguably had the most direct, day-to-day impact on Hurts’ development since 2020. If he gets hired elsewhere, he’ll be bringing that knowledge to whatever franchise hires him.

That makes Johnson a person to watch as either a Bears head-coaching hire — if they move on from Matt Eberflus — or a potential Fields trade suitor, should he land with another quarterback-needy team that isn’t the Bears this offseason. All of this is making the assumption that Johnson likes Fields as a player. Even if he does, there will be other circumstances likely to weigh on connecting the two.

As an NFC general manager framed it, if Johnson lands with a quarterback-thin franchise selecting outside the top 10 picks — meaning it would have to give up significant capital to move to the top of the draft for a quarterback — Fields becomes an attractive second option. The franchises that currently fit that mold? The New Orleans Saints (who are currently slotted 12th) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (slotted 20th). Two others who could be looking for head coaches but are sitting with a pick inside the top 10? The Washington Commanders (slotted fourth) and the Las Vegas Raiders (slotted sixth). You also can’t rule out the Atlanta Falcons, who are currently slotted at 11th overall in the draft and aren’t likely to fire Arthur Smith but who also run a heavy RPO scheme that would seem to overlap well with Fields’ talent.

How much would Fields command on the trade market at this point?

This was a difficult question to pose because the season hasn’t finished yet, and Fields can certainly impact what the Bears and other teams believe he’s worth. Effectively, he’s in a tryout period right now for his current franchise and others that might pursue him. How he fares in the final month of the season will set the table when it comes to his future, and at least three of his four remaining games — against the Cleveland Browns, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers — should be meaningful in that regard.

In that quartet, the Browns have a defense that should still be challenging despite recent injuries. The Falcons are a potential trade partner, so Fields playing well in that game could grease the skids in negotiations. And the Packers could be angling for a playoff spot in the final game of the season, raising the stage for Fields to showcase himself in a big-game situation at Lambeau Field.

Even with the four games of uncertainty, the seven general managers all had a ballpark for what they believe Fields could command in a trade at this point. None of their proposals included any kind of first-round value. We will get into why in a moment. First, here were the seven suggestions of Fields’ value in draft compensation.

GM one: A second-round and fourth-round pick, pending a “good finish” to the season.

GM two: A second-round pick, pending a “strong finish” to the season.

GM three: A third-round pick, plus another late-round pick that could escalate one round based on performance.

GM four: One third-round pick in the 2024 draft, one fourth-round pick in the 2025 draft.

GM five: A third-round pick or a second-round draft pick for Fields, plus a late-round pick back from the Bears.

GMs six and seven had the same proposal: A third-round pick, pending the finish of this season.

Some of these proposals came with caveats. As one GM noted, “it only takes one team” to like Fields enough to give up more than others would expect. Another mentioned that the value could rise or fall based on how long the Bears hold on to Fields, reasoning that a trade lingering all the way to the doorstep of the draft could lessen his value to franchises that would want him to begin working with their staff immediately. All of the GMs said they would factor in a slight tweak to his compensation based on the next four games. None of them put his value in the realm of a first-round pick.

While that lack of first-round pick value might surprise some who view Fields as a surging commodity right now, the general reasoning for trade asset limitations centered on his remaining contract. As it stands, Fields has one “cheap” year of football left next season, with a $1.61 million base salary and a $1.61 million roster bonus. Beyond that, an acquiring team would have to make a decision on triggering Fields’ fifth-year option in the spring of 2024. All of which means a team is trading for either one cheap tryout year or a pricier two-year window that would include his fifth-year option.

Now compare that to when the Arizona Cardinals traded Josh Rosen to the Miami Dolphins after only one season. The Cardinals had drafted Rosen No. 10 overall just one year earlier but made him expendable when they took Kyler Murray No. 1 overall the next season. Despite Rosen having three cheap years of control on his deal and another option year, the Cardinals got only a late second-round pick for him (No. 62 overall) from the Dolphins. The Bears would be going to the negotiating table with a much smaller contract window for Fields.

As an AFC general manager put it, “You’re trading for one year of Fields, most likely, because I don’t know that an acquiring team would exercise his option.”

An NFC general manager pointed to it being a “Sam Darnold situation,” referring to the Carolina Panthers trading for Darnold after his first three roller-coaster years with the New York Jets. The Panthers gave up a solid package for Darnold — including second-, fourth- and sixth-round picks — then triggered an $18.85 million fifth-year option just 25 days later. Their reason for picking it up? The amount of assets they traded to get Darold necessitated a two-year audition for a contract extension. Basically, they were pot-committed after surrendering the draft picks, so it made sense to commit to Darnold for the longer window.

A team could look at Fields the same way, deciding on the basis of his 2023 film that he warranted a triggering of his fifth-year option and a two-year “show me” window before either being franchise tagged or signing a long-term extension. That would likely be the most ideal situation for the Bears if it came down to trading Fields. But that requires an element of desperation, too. The Panthers were desperate to solve their quarterback position when they dealt for Darnold. That impacted the compensation.

That makes the next four weeks key — not only for the Bears but also for potential trade partners. Any number of teams could go off a cliff in that time. Any number of coaching and personnel jobs could go from safe to shattered. And a wide range of quarterback questions, answers and opportunities could be the undercurrent that reshapes multiple franchises.

Clearly a segment of NFL decision-makers thinks Fields should be part of it. In the months ahead, we’ll find out if the Chicago Bears agree.

GREEN BAY

Questions about the Green Bay backfield as RB A.J. DILLON has a broken thumb (can/should an RB play with such an injury) and RB AARON JONES could be closing in on a return.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Packers running back AJ Dillon has been listed as out of practice the last two days and he shed some light on the nature of his right thumb injury on Thursday.

Dillon said an X-ray on Tuesday showed that he broke his thumb when he hit it on a helmet during the team’s Week 14 loss to the Giants. Dillon kept playing after suffering the injury and he said he is hoping to find a way to do so against the Buccaneers this weekend as well.

That decision will be made after consultations with both the medical team and coaching staff.

“If it’s hurt, am I making it a bigger issue than it is down the road?” Dillon said, via Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. “And the next question is will I be able to positively impact the team with me being out there? We’ve got some days left in the week and those are some questions I’ve got to figure out myself. If I can go, I’m going to go. I’ve played through some stuff in the past over the years where I’m hurting but obviously good enough to go. I try to be out there if I can. That doesn’t change.”

With Dillon less than 100 percent, getting Aaron Jones back would be a plus for the Packers. Jones has been listed as limited in practice the last two days after missing three games with a knee injury and Friday will bring more information about how the Packers backfield will look come Sunday.

MINNESOTA

QB JOSH DOBBS has fallen all the way past back-up QB to #3.  Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com:

The Minnesota Vikings will be without two key offensive starters Saturday against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Running back Alexander Mattison and right tackle Brian O’Neill were both ruled out Thursday because of ankle injuries they suffered last weekend in the Vikings’ 3-0 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders. Neither practiced this week.

Mattison has started all 13 of the Vikings’ games this season and leads the team with 660 rushing yards. Coach Kevin O’Connell indicated that second-year running back Ty Chandler will take over the team’s lead back role, with kick returner Kene Nwangwu and fullback C.J. Ham also available for carries.

O’Neill, meanwhile, had also not missed a start this season after recovering from offseason Achilles surgery. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by veteran David Quessenberry.

The injuries to O’Neill and Mattison will add an extra layer of difficulty for quarterback Nick Mullens, who will be the Vikings’ fourth starter at the position in a seven-game stretch. Mullens will have receiver Justin Jefferson to throw to, however. Jefferson is expected to play his usual number of reps Saturday despite being listed as questionable on the team’s injury report because of a chest injury he suffered against the Raiders.

“He did probably more than I originally expected,” O’Connell said of Jefferson, “and responded really well to all the work. So we feel really good about where Justin’s at.”

Mullens takes over for Joshua Dobbs, who played the majority of the Vikings’ past five games. O’Connell, however, said that Dobbs will be the Vikings’ emergency No. 3 quarterback Saturday, with rookie Jaren Hall backing up Mullens as the No. 2. Hall hasn’t played since suffering a concussion Nov. 5 in his only start of the season.

“I just think that Jaren is fully healthy now” O’Connell said. “I think he’s really gotten back on the grass and really worked through his continued development. [We] wanted him to go about the week this week simulating as if he was playing, just using it as a real tool for his development and growth, and he’s done a nice job.”

NEW ORLEANS

The Saints may stay the course with Coach Dennis Allen.  John Sigler of USA Today:

Who is going to be coaching the New Orleans Saints in 2024? Could Dennis Allen return after struggling to reach (much less hold on to) a winning record in either of his two years as their head coach?

That’s no sure thing, but some recent scuttlebutt suggests the Saints are at least hesitant to consider making a move from Allen just yet. The latest buzz comes from ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler, who shared what he’s hearing in a back-and-forth with his colleague Dan Graziano:

“I don’t think the Saints want to make a change on Dennis Allen, but another losing season would mark two in a row, which wasn’t the norm in the Sean Payton era (though he did have a stretch of three consecutive 7-9 seasons from 2014 to ’16). It still needs to be seen how much grace New Orleans’ front office and ownership is willing to apply.”

Honestly, it’s odd that the situations would be compared; Payton earned his goodwill with a Super Bowl XLIV championship and a record-setting run with Drew Brees, helping the quarterback not just reinvent himself after a career-threatening injury but build a Hall of Fame resume.

Allen fixed Rob Ryan’s mess of a defense, which was no mean feat. Then he developed it into an elite unit. That was enough to give general manager Mickey Loomis and team president Dennis Lauscha the confidence to back Gayle Benson’s decision to hire him despite his historically poor run as a head coach a decade earlier with the Raiders. But when you look at the Saints’ fortunes since Allen was promoted to head coach, there’s little logic behind sticking with him.

An admittedly injury-ridden Saints team limped out of their Week 14 bye last year with a 4-9 record. They gave Allen free rein to recruit Derek Carr, investing $60 million guaranteed in a passer whose last team ditched him and whose free agency experience was lukewarm at best. What does Allen have to show for it a year later? The Saints are coming out of Week 14 with a 6-7 record. They’ve improved by just two wins.

There’s no valid reason to stick with Allen. His defense — his defense, the unit he’s drafted and developed and filled with veteran free agents — is eroding by the week. What was supposed to be the strength of the team has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards and tied for the third-fewest sacks in the NFL this season. They can’t stop the run or rush the passer. Allen’s offense still can’t score points between Carr panicking in the red zone and rookie kicker Blake Grupe shanking 29-yard field goals. Visiting fans are taking over the lower bowl in the Caesars Superdome, and Carr is being met with boos whenever he jogs off the field after another stalled-out drive. The team is in a bad place even after a lopsided (yet unconvincing) win over a division rival last Sunday.

So we’ve got two reasons for the Saints to keep Allen. In the first scenario, they’ll outlast their rivals in the NFC South and win the division to host a home playoff game (likely against a Super Bowl contender like the Dallas Cowboys), which likely won’t go well. It’ll also drop their first-round pick in the 2024 NFL draft away from the best prospects, which could be devastating when bad trades from Loomis cost them their second-, third- and fourth-round picks. But, Loomis can say, they did reach the postseason after falling short last year. And that’s tangible progress.

What if the Saints miss the playoffs and still keep Allen? That’s when the excuses might start rushing out: injuries to star players like Michael Thomas and Marshon Lattimore (just like last year) plus Carr, who is valiantly playing through a sprained throwing shoulder, three injured ribs and two concussions. That’s an easy way to wave off his poor performance this season.

The rebuttal to that is the Saints having the healthiest roster in the league through the first 10 weeks and still idling at 5-5 before the injuries hit. But if the team leadership group has seen Allen’s team get worse by the week and find new ways to lose football games into mid-December, odds are strong that Benson, Loomis and Lauscha aren’t going to acknowledge that criticism in January. It would take something drastic to convince them that hiring Allen and committing harder to his vision for the team was the wrong move.

Allen is two years into his four-year contract. Carr’s heaviest guarantees extend into 2024. Maybe the plan all along has been to give Allen those two years with his quarterback and see if he can make something happen before kickstarting a reboot in 2025 (maybe without Loomis, the longest-tenured general manager in the NFL) once the salary cap has skyrocketed to wipe out years of financial maneuvering and cost deferments. All fans can do is stand by, see how this all plays out, and hope the team gives them a product worth cheering for.

LAS VEGAS

Paul Gutierrez of ESPN.com on how the Raiders are averaging 31.5 points per game over their last two contests.

A little more than 96 hours after losing 3-0 in the lowest-scoring indoor game in NFL history, the Las Vegas Raiders blasted the Los Angeles Chargers 63-21 in a game in which they led by as many as 56 points.

Quarterback Aidan O’Connell threw for four touchdown passes and receiver Jakobi Meyers caught and threw for a score for the Raiders (6-8), who led 42-0 at halftime. This result will not help embattled Chargers coach Brandon Staley, as Los Angeles (5-9) committed five turnovers, three of which the Raiders’ offense turned into touchdowns and two of which the Raiders defense returned for scores.

Can the Raiders borrow a mere four points from Thursday night’s demolition of the Chargers and apply it to Sunday’s 3-0 loss to the Minnesota Vikings? No, it doesn’t work like that? Fine.

But a feel-good takedown of an ancient rival will do wonders for a team’s psyche, especially with three offensive starters sidelined with injuries in All-Pro running back Josh Jacobs (quad), left tackle Kolton Miller (shoulder) and center Andre James (ankle). And they have a long break to get ready before a Christmas Day game at the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Raiders may have blown their chance at a better draft pick with the win, but they may have also helped interim coach Antonio Pierce’s candidacy pick up steam. And yes, the Raiders are still technically alive for the playoffs.

Describe the game in two words: Big-time blowout: The Raiders’ 42-0 halftime lead saw the most points scored in a first half by a team after being shutout in its previous game, bettering the 34 points the Frankford Yellow Jackets had in 1927 against the Buffalo Bisons and the 34 points the Rock Island Independents scored against the Pittsburgh All-Collegians in 1920, per the Elias Sports Bureau.

Bold prediction for next week: Given the offensive explosion, let’s just say interim offensive coordinator Bo Hardegree will remain upstairs in the press box, calling plays from up on high. He had been on the sidelines before Thursday night.

QB breakdown: Four days after bottoming out against the Vikings, O’Connell simply balled out. He threw deep, kept his internal clock on rhythm and had success. He finished 20 of 34 for 248 yards and a career-best four touchdowns. He entered the day just 5-of-20 with one touchdown and two interceptions on passes of 20-plus air yards, but went 3-of-4 with three scores on such passes in the first half. He is the first Raiders quarterback to throw three scores of at least 20 air yards in a game since ESPN began tracking air yards in 2006.

Eye-popping Next Gen stat: When Meyers hit Davante Adams for a 3-yard touchdown pass to put the Raiders up 49-0 early in the third quarter, Meyers became the first non-QB this century to throw a pass with his team up by at least 40 points.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Clay Travis echoed a lot of people last night:

@ClayTravis

If an NFL coach were ever going to get fired at halftime, I think this would be the game.

Coach Brandon Staley did make it to the end of the game and was able to answer questions about his future. Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Thursday night’s debacle in Las Vegas has Chargers head coach Brandon Staley answering questions about his job security.

When asked after the 63-21 loss to the Raiders if he expects to keep his job, Staley answered, “I don’t know that.”

Asked if he deserves to keep his job, Staley answered, “Yes.”

“I know what I’ve done for three years, I know what I’ve put into this, I know where we’re capable of going. I know what kind of coach I am. I believe in myself,” Staley said.

Staley acknowledged that he needed to do a better job of having his team ready to play in a game where they fell behind 42-0 in the first half.

“I take full responsibility,” Staley said. “This was just a really bad game in the NFL where nothing goes right, everything goes wrong.”

Staley believes the Chargers’ poor showing reflects not only on him but on the entire team.

“Just one of those games where nothing went right for us,” Staley said. “It’s a reflection on all of us.”

Charles McDonald says Staley’s demise should be a result of the Chargers Hangover Thursday in Vegas:

A group of guys took a trip to Las Vegas and lost just about everything they own, a tale as old as time. The group of men in question this time are none other than the hapless Los Angeles Chargers, who ended any chance of scraping together a respectable performance before the end of the season.

The Raiders, who are starting fifth-round rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell, ripped off 49 straight points before the Chargers scored a touchdown with 10 minutes left in the third quarter on Thursday night. The Chargers had no Justin Herbert, no defense, no ball security and now, they have absolutely no reason to bring back head coach Brandon Staley after suffering a 63-21 defeat.

Staley noted that he still had a grasp on the culture of the team after its Week 12 loss against the Ravens, ESPN’s Kris Rhim reported during the game. Staley said his team would be getting “blown out of the water” if they had tuned him out. Well. It happened.

The Raiders (6-8) and interim head coach Antonio Pierce were up 42-0 before halftime. At no point was this game close except at the starting point of 0-0. The Chargers (5-9) were embarrassed on the national stage in such a jarring manner that there’s almost no way to come back from this. Offense, defense, special teams — each unit had a disastrous performance that led to this historic loss against a team that’s the middle of its own tumultuous season. It’s hard to seem more disinterested in winning than the Chargers were during their Thursday night implosion.

In a way, this loss should be freeing for the Chargers. There’s no hiding from a defeat like this. It’s impossible to spin this in a positive manner to keep a sliver of hope alive for the job prospects of Staley (and general manager Tom Telesco) following the season. This is the green light they needed to rip the Band Aid off and get a head start on who will replace Staley. This isn’t losing a tough game to the Ravens or a shootout with the Lions — this is allowing a 60-piece to a team that’s about to enter a lengthy rebuilding phase.

“Games like this happen in the NFL,” Staley told reporters postgame.

Actually, this isn’t a result that happens very often in the NFL. Since the 1970 merger, there were only nine games in which a team scored 60 points — this will be the 10th (and on a different note, the second this season). Backup quarterbacks and injured defenses play every week, but they don’t give up this kind of result. The Chargers’ tumble this season now has a defining moment where they’ll be remembered for all the wrong reasons.

Staley said that he deserved to keep his job after the debacle, saying,”I know what I’ve done here for three years and I know what I put into this and I know that we’re capable of going. I know the type of coach that I am.”

The extenuating circumstances don’t matter. It’s time to turn the page. Even if Staley isn’t fired immediately after the game and gets the final three games of the season, this game will be the top reason as to why the Chargers have to let him go on the infamous Black Monday after Week 18. It’s hard to come back from a team looking totally disinterested like this — plus, he never even got remotely close to figuring out how to get the Chargers’ defense moving in the right direction like he did as coordinator with the Rams.

CINCINNATI

From a Fantasy standpoint, Dalton Del Don of YahooSports.com says QB JAKE BROWNING is about to be exposed, starting with the defense of Brian Flores on Saturday:

Jake Browning being fantasy’s QB4 over the last two weeks is a lie

Browning threw 91 touchdown passes as a senior in high school and deserves credit for winning back-to-back games, but his fantasy production has been a mirage. He’s benefitted from Joe Mixon getting stopped at the 1-yard line three times over the last weeks, with the QB punching in two scores at the goal line. Moreover, Browning somehow already has the most passing yards on backfield screens among all quarterbacks this season, as he owes Chase Brown for last week’s big play. Browning’s air yards per attempt would rank last in the league by a mile if he qualified.

Browning also faced a couple of highly favorable matchups (Jax & Ind) over the last two weeks, and his schedule takes a hard turn during the fantasy playoffs. The Bengals get an incredibly stingy Minnesota D this week before traveling for road games against two defenses (Pit & KC) that rank top-12 in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. The Vikings have allowed just one opponent to hit their implied team total over their last 10 games and have averaged the sixth-fewest combined plays since losing Kirk Cousins.

Browning has proven to be an above-average backup who won’t sink the Bengals’ offense, but his run as a fantasy starter ends during the playoffs.

CLEVELAND

The Browns have rewarded QB JOE FLACCO with a better contract as he had been saving Cleveland’s season from a practice squad contract.  Adam Schefter:

@AdamSchefter

Joe Flacco’s new one-year deal with the Browns includes $4.05 million of incentives based on winning, per a source familiar with the deal.

Flacco will make $75,000 for each of the remaining four regular-season games he wins this season.

Then, should Cleveland advance to the postseason, Flacco would make $250,000 for a wild-card win, $500,000 for a divisional-playoff win, $1 million for an AFC Championship game win and $2 million for a Super Bowl win.

The deal expires after this season when, once again, Flacco will be a free agent.

Mike Florio:

The Browns called him up to start two games. Each time, he reverted to the practice squad. Each time, another team could have made him a big offer to join their 53-man roster.

It didn’t happen. He’s now a Brown, and he’ll start his third game of the season on Sunday, against the Bears. A win would send the Browns to 9-5.

If the Browns make it to the playoffs, who knows what will happen? Flacco has plenty of experience, especially in the postseason. Eleven years ago, he led the Ravens to a Super Bowl win — and he was named Super Bowl MVP.

Mary Kay Cabot:

@MaryKayCabot

When I asked Joe Flacco if he would’ve signed with someone else off the #Browns practice squad, he said “No chance. No chance. It’s great here”:

Cory Kinnan of USATODAY says Coach Kevin Stefanski should also be getting a new deal.

The Cleveland Browns are going to give head coach Kevin Stefanski a contract extension.

The 2020 NFL Coach of the Year has seen his struggles over the past two seasons, but as he gets set to enter the last year of his contract this offseason, Stefanski has turned into something the Browns have needed him to become.

A leader.

No other head coach in nearly a decade has found a way to cater a gameplan to four different quarterbacks and find a way to win with them all in the same season. One would be hard-pressed to find another coach who could rally a team that has lost all of their starting quarterback, star running back, three offensive tackles, a veteran leader in the secondary, and more to injury this year.

Yet, despite losing 14 key players to injuries this season, Stefanski has his Browns sitting at 8-5 on the season and with a firm grip on the top wildcard spot in the AFC. This is a testament to Stefanski and the coaching staff he has put together in Cleveland.

Safety Juan Thornhill tweeted out his love to Stefanski after the win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Thornhill stated, “Despite all of our injuries this season Coach Stefanski still find a way to put us in position to win each week. Love that guy.”

Another defensive player in star pass rusher Myles Garrett has appreciation for the job Stefanski has done as well. “He’s coaching his (expletive) off,” Garrett said as the Browns have fought, clawed, and dragged good football teams through the mud this season.

The Browns sit with the most wins against teams with a winning record this season despite everything that continues to be stacked against them. And now with four games left to go, the Browns have an opportunity to continue to stack wins down the stretch.

NFL Coach of the Year betting odds are beginning to shift in Stefanski’s favor as well according to BetMGM, as they have now skyrocketed to +1200 with four weeks to go. There are just five head coaches with better odds than him at this point in the NFL season, and two of them (San Francisco 49ers’ Kyle Shanahan and Indianapolis Colts’ Shane Steichen) have been defeated by Stefanski and the Browns this year.

The markets have adjusted, and so should the expectations around Northeast Ohio:

Stefanski is here to stay in Cleveland and is going to see a new contract on his desk. It’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when.

PITTSBURGH

Did the Steelers handle the concussion of EDGE T.J. WATT properly?  The victim thinks so.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Steelers linebacker T.J. Watt took a knee to the head from running back Ezekiel Elliott early in last Thursday’s loss to the Patriots and he was cleared to return to the game after being evaluated for a concussion.

That evaluation came into question during the game because Watt switched to a tinted visor that could have been linked to light sensitivity after a head injury. It was called into question again the next day when the Steelers announced that Watt had been placed in the league’s concussion protocol.

Watt said this Thursday that he “came in the next day and had stuff going on” in terms of symptoms that were not previously there. The team’s handling of the situation sparked a review by the NFL and NFL Players Association, but Watt, who was cleared from the protocol on Wednesday, said that he doesn’t think there was anything off about the chain of events.

“I went through all the steps possible and it felt like we did everything the right way,” Watt said, via Chris Adamski of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.

Watt was asked about the visor change and said that it’s something he’s worn at various points throughout his career. He said he’s “not going to get into the all the specifics and into a debate about it” because his focus is on Saturday’s game against the Colts.

HOUSTON

It’s looking like QB C.J. STROUD’s concussion is of the more serious variety.  Tyler Sullivan of CBSSports.com:

Texans rookie phenom C.J. Stroud exited Sunday’s game and did not return against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium due to what is now confirmed as a concussion, according to coach DeMeco Ryans. Stroud is now in concussion protocol, per Ryans. His timeline to return is not known.

As of Thursday, Stroud remains in protocol and has yet to practice ahead of their Week 15 game at the Tennessee Titans. His time at the Texans facility has been limited since the injury.

“As much as he can right now, he’s still in the protocol so he hasn’t been in the building too much,” said backup quarterback Davis Mills via KPRC 2 Houston’s Aaron Wilson, when asked about how much Stroud has helped him prepare for a potential start this week. “C.J. has always been the guy who’s going to be extremely generous and make sure his teammates are in the best spot they can be to go out and execute on gameday.” 

The rookie quarterback suffered the injury on a second-and-10 play from the Houston 25-yard line with just under seven minutes to play in regulation in the Texans’ 30-6 loss. After completing a six-yard pass to wideout John Metchie III, Stroud was taken to the ground by Jets defensive tackle Quinnen Williams. After his body initially hit the turf, the back of Stroud’s helmet smacked against the ground. Davis Mills came in to relieve Stroud, who was able to walk off under his own power before departing to the locker room

THIS AND THAT

RANKING THE COACHING OPENINGS

Bill Barnwell ponders 10 jobs that might come open (Las Vegas and Carolina already are) and ranks an order of preference:

Every year around this time, I like to write a piece analyzing the various jobs that could come available and how they might appeal to potential head-coaching candidates as they sort through options. It’s important to note that I’m not suggesting these teams should or will fire their coaches, but simply that there’s a meaningful amount of smoke around those opportunities.

What’s staggering about this season is how many jobs I had to consider. There are 10 teams on this list, four of which come from a single division. One of those teams will make the playoffs, so I don’t expect all four coaches to be fired, but there are different scenarios in which each of those teams could justify moving on.

This 10-team list even leaves some rumors aside. It doesn’t include Mike Vrabel, who is enduring a second disappointing season in Tennessee. It also doesn’t include Sean McDermott, who has had a frustrating year in Buffalo and was under fire last week for comments he made about 9/11 in a training camp talk to his team in 2019. Both coaches won in Week 14. I won’t even countenance the complaints about Mike Tomlin, whose Steelers haven’t been able to keep up their early-season magic spell of winning while being outgained by the competition.

One reason I can’t take those concerns seriously? There are 10 teams on this list that might credibly make a change this offseason, and there aren’t 10 good candidates out there for those jobs. There would be a frenzy if Vrabel, McDermott or Tomlin became available. In a league in which every team owner wants the exciting, young offensive coach, Ben Johnson (Detroit) and Bobby Slowik (Houston) are going to need personal assistants to field all their calls.

Keep in mind that a lot can change in a season. This time last year, the most desirable job on the market looked like the opportunity in Carolina, which had nearly made it to the postseason, had an exciting young core and eventually got in position to land a quarterback with the No. 1 pick. Let’s rank those 10 potential openings, starting with the worst and working our way toward the best. Guess where we’re starting this year:

10. Carolina Panthers

Pros: Young defensive talent, weak division, leverage for longer deal

Cons: Impatient ownership, questions about quarterback, draft capital

Well, there are only 32 NFL head-coaching jobs out there, and this is certainly one of them. The 1-12 Panthers have the league’s worst record, have fired coaches in consecutive seasons and will likely have to send the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft to the Bears as part of the package used to acquire Bryce Young, who has been a disappointment as a rookie. The new coach will inherit a team in need of a rebuild with ownership that doesn’t appear to have the patience for one. Not ideal!

Let’s start with the positives. From a coaching perspective, the undesirability of the Carolina job might actually afford candidates more opportunities to remake the organization in their image by virtue of requiring more to justify taking this job. In 2017, Kyle Shanahan landed a six-year deal and personnel control when he took over a 49ers franchise that had been through three coaches in the prior three seasons. Dan Campbell netted a six-year pact to take over the Lions in 2021. If you’re a head coach with an impressive résumé who wants to shop for the personnel groceries or hopes to land the sort of 10-year deals we’ve seen for top college coaches, a desperate Panthers franchise might have no choice but to indulge those requests.

The Panthers probably aren’t as far from competing as it feels. Remember: They were competing for a division title this time last season and had a 14-0 lead in the de facto NFC South title game, only for Tom Brady and Mike Evans to take over. Admittedly, that team was 6-9 in a division that sent a team with a losing record to the playoffs, but the South hasn’t exactly developed a bounty of talent over the ensuing 12 months, either. It’s still ripe for the taking, with all four teams potentially considering a coaching change this offseason.

One of the reasons the Panthers lost that day was the absence of star cornerback Jaycee Horn, who hasn’t been able to stay healthy. He missed 14 games in 2021, three games in 2022 and was sidelined during the season-opening loss in 2023 before returning two weeks ago. There are building blocks on the defensive side of the ball in Horn, Brian Burns and linebacker Frankie Luvu, but Burns and Luvu are pending free agents, and Horn is eligible for a significant raise. The new coach will have to decide whether the franchise should pay up to retain a defense that hasn’t been great or rebuild and possibly move on from Burns and Luvu this offseason.

There certainly are skeptics of Young’s ability to succeed at the NFL level given his size and 5-10 frame, but the hiring process is self-fulfilling: The Panthers will only hire someone who believes Young is a superstar in the making, in part because they have no choice but to develop him as best they can over the next couple of seasons. Given team owner David Tepper’s typical timeline for coaches, though, there should be something ringing in the back of the heads of potential candidates: If Young’s not the guy in Carolina, will I still be around when it’s time to target the next quarterback of the future?

9. Las Vegas Raiders

Pros: No state income tax

Cons: Erratic ownership, limited talent on roster, difficult division

There simply isn’t a lot to work with for a coach taking over this Raiders job. At 5-8, the Raiders have been competitive, but they continue to be stuck in a no-man’s-land between rebuilding and contention, despite a few veteran standouts. Whoever takes over, whether it be interim coach Antonio Pierce or an outsider, will need to convince team owner Mark Davis to firmly go in one direction or the other.

As I’ve written multiple times, this Vegas roster is bereft of cost-controlled young talent after years of subpar drafting under Jon Gruden. Former coach Josh McDaniels trading first- and second-round picks for Davante Adams didn’t help matters, and rookie No. 7 pick Tyree Wilson is off to a slow start. The organization committed to playing rookie fourth-rounder Aidan O’Connell after firing McDaniels, but while he has shown flashes, he ranks 29th out of 30 qualifying quarterbacks in QBR.

The Raiders have all of their key draft picks moving forward, but their record is too good to give them a shot at one of the top two selections in a class that is considered to have two standout quarterbacks. It wouldn’t be surprising if they hired a coach who felt compelled to go after one of the secondary quarterback options in this class, and indeed, Matt Miller’s new mock draft has them selecting Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy at No. 7.

More than anything, a new quarterback and coach will need time and patience. In 2018, Davis fired Jack Del Rio one year after a 12-win season and stripped power from general manager Reggie McKenzie, who had painstakingly rebuilt the most exciting Raiders team in more than a decade after taking over while the team was in cap hell. Gruden resigned because of his off-field behavior in 2021, while McDaniels was fired before the midway point of his second season.

I don’t fault Davis for firing McDaniels, but whoever takes this job is going to require at least three seasons to build a roster capable of competing with the Chiefs, who are both better and younger than the Raiders. Vegas is the league’s eighth-oldest team on a snap-weighted basis this season, a product of needing to target free agents to fill in for the missing young players. It’s OK to be old if a team has a championship-caliber core, but the Raiders don’t have enough beyond Adams, Maxx Crosby and Kolton Miller.

One positive is that they won’t have trouble attracting talent. The absence of a state income tax in Nevada means the franchise can be financially competitive without needing to match the offers presented by other teams in free agency. It will also appeal to a coach, since he’ll be getting his money tax-free, too. We’ve seen Davis give an enormous contract and significant personnel control to a coach in the past when he gave Gruden a 10-year, $100 million deal to leave ESPN, but that didn’t go well. He might need to do something drastic again to make this job more appealing to top candidates.

8. New Orleans Saints

Pros: Weak division, big names on roster

Cons: Oldest team in league, terrible cap situation, some missing draft capital

Since Drew Brees retired, the Saints have done as little as possible to veer from their philosophies. They continue to be aggressive in moving up before and during the draft, which has led to positives (Chris Olave) and negatives (Trevor Penning). They’ve continued to put their cap issues on layaway, which allowed them to bring in quarterback Derek Carr this offseason, albeit at the expense of their entire defensive tackle rotation. They’ve generally kept the coaching staff as familiar as possible by promoting defensive coordinator Dennis Allen to head coach and handing over the offense to longtime Sean Payton lieutenant Pete Carmichael.

The financial choices the Saints have made have led them to be all-in with their current core for several years now, and as that core continues to age and decline, the results have not lived up to fans’ expectations. With a steady quarterback and the league’s easiest schedule, the baseline for this season was a division title and a home playoff game. Even with the NFC South living down to expectations, they might not get there. Firing Allen and hiring a coach would be the first sign that the Saints are recognizing they can’t continue on the same path and get better results.

This job will be a challenge, but the type of challenge it represents will come down to whether the Saints are prepared to make a more significant diversion from their past. If they just want to make a change at coach and count on the new guy to get more out of the veterans on their roster than Allen & Co., the roster isn’t going to change much. They will restructure every deal they can to clear out their $90 million cap overage, hand out a couple of extensions to reduce the load even further and hope that a new coach can get Carr looking more like the player we saw for the Raiders in 2021 than the one who disappointed Josh McDaniels in 2022 and seemingly the entire Saints fan base in 2023.

On the other hand, if moving on from Allen is a signal the Saints are finally ready to acknowledge the inevitable and tear things down, it’s going to take a while. Most teams can create cap space by releasing players, but New Orleans would gain only marginal amounts of space by moving on from Alvin Kamara and Tyrann Mathieu. Carr’s contract still has $30 million remaining in full guarantees. Cameron Jordan has $25.5 million in guarantees left on his most recent restructure. Andrus Peat’s deal will void with $24 million in dead money, and Michael Thomas’ contract is likely to void as well, which would add another $18 million to the discard pile.

There is young talent on both sides of the ball here, but there’s no escaping the destruction that is going to come from moving on from the veteran core. The Saints have repeatedly pushed that reality into the future and have been willing to pay for decreasing production from those players over the past few seasons. In doing so, they’ve squeezed themselves so thin that they probably can’t take just a single season and reset in the way that, say, the Rams did this season. This will be a multiyear process to even set up the rebuild, and if the coach they’re trying to hire knows how the cap works, that’s going to be a negative for the team’s appeal.

With that being the case, it’s more likely that the Saints would simply try to hire an offensive-leaning coach to replace Allen and try to run it back with the same core at least one more time. That might be enough to win their division in 2024, but they will be a year older, going up against younger teams and facing a tougher schedule. That scenario might not be as appealing to promising coaches as New Orleans fans hope.

7. Washington Commanders

Pros: Halo effect from new ownership, low expectations, draft capital

Cons: Subpar facilities, lack of star talent at key positions, need to rebuild culture

What has happened in Washington isn’t really Ron Rivera’s fault, but somebody else is probably going to be the one attempting to solve the issue that has vexed everyone short of Joe Gibbs for 30 years: How do the Commanders build a consistent winner? They haven’t won a playoff game since 2005 or advanced out of the divisional round since Gibbs won his last Super Bowl in 1992.

One big difference is the next coach won’t be beginning his tenure under team owner Daniel Snyder. With Josh Harris headlining the group of investors that purchased the team last summer, the natural comparison here is to another team Harris took over: the Philadelphia 76ers. Harris famously hired Sam Hinkie and embarked on what has become known as “The Process,” a to-the-studs rebuild that eventually yielded Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, albeit after Hinkie resigned from the team in 2016.

There’s no guarantee that the Commanders will tank or embark on a similar sort of meandering rebuild, but at the very least, Harris was willing to sign off on an extensive rebuild that was going to take multiple seasons. They have a few talented players, but they’re not one quarterback or one draft away from competing for a Super Bowl. Any coach or general manager who comes here is going to be both pitching and operating on a long-term timeline for success.

While the Commanders aren’t as bereft of talent as other teams in this article, they don’t have the sort of players that the vast majority of teams around the league are built around. The most expensive positions to fill are quarterback, edge rusher, wide receiver, defensive tackle and cornerback. Washington has Terry McLaurin at wide receiver and the duo of Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne at defensive tackle, but all three are already on second contracts and likely to be approaching or in their 30s by the time there’s meaningful help around them.

With apologies to what has been a high-octane year for sophomore quarterback Sam Howell, the Commanders don’t have much to be excited about at those other positions. The jury is still out on rookie first-round pick Emmanuel Forbes, and they need to start hitting on draft picks at positions they’ll have trouble filling in free agency. They’ll have extra second- and third-round picks from the trades they made at the deadline involving Montez Sweat and Chase Young, which will help. If they end up with a pick that has significant trade value for one of the teams wanting to add a quarterback, the Commanders will need to give that deal serious thought.

Cutting ties with one of the last remnants of the Snyder regime will buy the new coach some time, but this is also going to be a job where the public-facing executives running things are going to need to be friendlier and more open than usual. The new regime is going to need to do whatever possible to reignite the passion of lapsed Commanders fans, and for the next couple of years, it won’t be the quality of the play on the field or the comfort of the stadium. If you pay attention to coaching news conferences around the league, you’ll see that openness and warmth aren’t exactly qualities some coaches care to exude.

6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pros: Talent on both sides of the ball, no state income tax, easy division

Cons: No franchise quarterback, difficult cap situation

Not many teams are simultaneously in first place and on a list for potential coach openings in December, but the NFC South is a unique place. The Bucs moved into first after a last-minute victory over the Falcons on Sunday, albeit in a division in which the top three teams are all 6-7. Wins over the Saints and Panthers to end the season would likely be enough to get them into the postseason. We saw the Titans part ways with Mike Mularkey in 2017 even after winning a playoff game, but advancing into the playoffs for the second consecutive year should be enough for Todd Bowles to keep his job.

If the Buccaneers do move on from Bowles, they’ll be one of several teams with two disparate paths forward. Tampa has $47 million in cap space next year, but it has one of the most significant free agent classes of any team, with a group that includes Mike Evans, Devin White, Lavonte David, Baker Mayfield and Antoine Winfield Jr. Will general manager Jason Licht want to use that money to bring back his veterans and try to rerun this team in 2024? Or is it time for the Buccaneers to rebuild and try to compete again in 2025 and beyond?

The lack of serious competition in the NFC South will probably encourage a more aggressive path for the Buccaneers, which will also influence their coaching hire. Mayfield has played solidly enough to return with some sort of modest raise on his $4 million guarantee from 2023. Winfield is a star. Evans is having a vintage season at age 30. In a division in which eight wins were enough to get them a division title in 2022 and might be enough to repeat the feat in 2023, they don’t have to aspire to be great to host a playoff game.

We could split the difference. Tampa could choose to bring the vets back, re-sign Mayfield and then take a big swing on one of the second- or third-tier quarterbacks in the first round of April’s draft. In that path, it would likely behoove the Bucs to pursue an offensive-minded head coach, although first-year coordinator Dave Canales has done solid work with Mayfield this season. Unlike with a team like the Bears, who will likely have their pick of the 2024 draft class with the No. 1 overall selection, nobody will be able to come to Tampa Bay and be sure that the team will land the quarterback it wants in the draft.

Tampa made the most meaningful free agent signing of the past decade when it imported Tom Brady from New England, so we know it can sell even the best players on a plan. Florida has warm weather and no state income tax, which are factors that will always appeal to players in free agency. Coaches will have an easier time recruiting there than they will in Green Bay or Buffalo. The Bucs also make more money themselves, which adds up over five years on a fully guaranteed deal. All of those factors make the Bucs’ opportunity a more appealing one than it might seem at first glance.

5. New England Patriots

Pros: Draft capital, potential path to a quarterback, defense, stable ownership

Cons: Old roster devoid of offensive talent, fan base agitating for success, shadow of greatest coach ever

It’s not easy to follow the greats. In 1968, Phil Bengtson took over for Vince Lombardi in Green Bay and lasted three seasons. In 1991, Bill Parcells left the Giants and handed over coaching duties to Ray Handley, who was so shook by his two years at the helm that he never coached at any level again. Chip Kelly took over for Andy Reid in Philadelphia in 2013 and was out after three years. With George Seifert (49ers) and Mike Tomlin (Steelers) as notable exceptions, coaches don’t often want to be the guy replacing “The Guy.”

Things might be different with the Patriots because the guy isn’t leaving on a high note. Had Bill Belichick left with Tom Brady after a 12-4 season in 2019, the task of replacing one of the most legendary coaches in football history would have seemed incalculable. After three losing seasons in the ensuing four years, though, the thought of parting ways with Belichick isn’t as unthinkable to Patriots fans as it might have seemed. Frankly, after two decades of winning double-digit games as a reflex, there’s a significant number of New England fans who seem ready for fresh blood.

I already wrote at length earlier this year about how the Patriots ended up in this situation, so I won’t rehash those concerns. I’ll note that they have a 75% chance of ending up with one of the top two picks in next year’s draft, which would make this job much more desirable. It’s difficult to imagine a coach taking over with the intention of guaranteeing Mac Jones’ fifth-year option for 2025, which would leave the quarterback as a lame-duck starter or a possible trade candidate.

Even without Matthew Judon (biceps) and breakout rookie Christian Gonzalez (shoulder) for most of the season, Belichick has managed to right the ship on defense. While not exactly facing a brutal schedule of opposing quarterbacks, the Pats are allowing a league-best 1.1 points per possession over the past five games. He’s doing that with Jahlani Tavai, Anfernee Jennings, J.C. Jackson and Mack Wilson getting regular work. It would be tough to imagine the Patriots thriving as consistently on defense if Belichick left town, even if an assistant such as Jerod Mayo inherited the job.

It’s simultaneously hard to argue the offense wouldn’t get a much-needed fresh start. There aren’t many building blocks on that side of the ball, and two of the players who have been positives during their tenure are pending free agent Mike Onwenu and running back Rhamondre Stevenson, who is eligible for a new deal after the season. The Pats can bring back the interior of their line with Cole Strange, David Andrews and rookie Sidy Sow, but this team needs both an influx of talent and a coach who will get the most out of that speed. It’ll be a serious challenge, especially if the Patriots do want to hire an offensive-minded coach.

One positive for potential coaches is that the Krafts generally have had very good taste in hires. Robert Kraft took over in 1994 with Parcells at the helm and has needed to make only two head-coaching hires since: Belichick and Pete Carroll, who coached the Pats from 1997 to 1999. You could argue the Pats were a little aggressive in firing Carroll after he went 27-21 in three seasons with the team, but generally, they are regarded as one of the more stable, hands-off operations in the league. That will appeal to coaches, especially ones who have worked with irascible or erratic owners in prior jobs.

The AFC East might also be an appealing destination. The Dolphins have one of the league’s deepest rosters, but employing Tua Tagovailoa is about to get much more expensive and star wideout Tyreek Hill turns 30 in March. The Jets haven’t been very good and are built around a 40-year-old quarterback coming off a torn Achilles. The Bills have declined from their 2020-21 peak and appear set for a retooling around Josh Allen, if not a rebuild. If the Patriots land Drake Maye or Caleb Williams, get the right pieces around a young quarterback and don’t slip too much on defense, their path back to contention could be quicker than it feels now.

4. New York Jets

Pros: Defense, veteran quarterback, immediate chances of success

Cons: Draft capital, lofty expectations, quarterback uncertainty post-2024

The Jets realistically exist in their own sphere of evaluation separate from the other teams on this list, in part because they’ve been run in an entirely different way. Just about every decision they made last offseason was more about satisfying Aaron Rodgers than building the best possible roster. Now’s not the time to relitigate those choices, but it’s safe to say many of them have not worked.

Who takes the blame for those mistakes? Does anybody? It would be fair to say New York never got to see what it would look like with Rodgers on the field and basically treated 2023 as a bad dream. It would also be fair to look at a coach who has gone 16-31 and a general manager with a 25-54 record and wonder if Rodgers could find more successful executives to build a team in what could be his final NFL season.

It seems logical to assume that moving on from Robert Saleh would hurt the Jets’ chances of fielding a championship-caliber defense in 2024. While they’ve made a few big splashes, he has coaxed new levels of play from guys who weren’t expected to be standouts, including undrafted free agent Bryce Huff and former Jaguars castoff Quincy Williams. Veterans D.J. Reed and Quinton Jefferson have been better in New York than they were elsewhere. Sauce Gardner isn’t suddenly going to turn into a pumpkin overnight if Saleh is fired, but it’s tough to believe the coach isn’t playing a meaningful role in getting the most out of a very good defense.

On the other hand, hiring an offensive-minded coach might do more to solve New York’s problems on its weaker side of the ball. A second-half outburst against the Texans in Week 14 was a rare respite in what has been a disastrous season on offense. While Rodgers’ injury cost the Jets any semblance of a ceiling, what has happened without him has exposed weaknesses throughout the lineup. They have one excellent playmaker in Garrett Wilson, a player who has flashed but mostly struggled in Breece Hall and little else. They would be better with Rodgers, of course, but he alone wouldn’t make the offense great.

Would a healthy-ish Rodgers and a defense that is ranked among the league’s best be appealing to the right coach? Of course. How many of these other jobs have a realistic chance of competing for a Super Bowl next season? Expectations are going to be extremely high in New York, which would make this job difficult, but it would also be appealing to a coach who wants to win immediately. Bruce Arians joined the Bucs before Tom Brady, but the Kangol-ed former Cardinals coach certainly didn’t regret taking on a job with short-term upside when Tampa won a Super Bowl in the 2020 season.

With that said, there’s a lot of work to be done this offseason to even have a shot at competing in 2024. Huff is a free agent, as are Jefferson and Jordan Whitehead. The Jets sorely need playmakers and offensive line help and won’t have much cap space, even with Rodgers’ cap hit down to $17.2 million. They’re also going to send their second-round pick to the Packers as part of the Rodgers trade compensation.

It might also be a one-season shot at glory. Rodgers might retire after 2024, leaving the Jets with nothing at quarterback and $49 million in dead money on their salary cap. Wilson and Gardner will be eligible for new extensions at the same time. The 2025 Jets could end up looking a lot like the 2023 Buccaneers as a team with plenty of talented players but without the quarterback or depth needed to really compete for a division title. Any coach who wants to sign up for what could be an exhilarating 2024 will probably need to be on board with a retooling after Rodgers retires, if not something closer to a rebuild.

Flags fly forever, though, and while there are plenty of coaches who want to try to build a franchise from the ground up in their image, I imagine it wouldn’t be hard to find a veteran who wants to inherit Rodgers and that defense and try to win now.

3. Atlanta Falcons

Pros: Patient ownership, young talent, subpar division

Cons: Major questions at QBk, possibility of a limited budget after a 2023 spending spree

The Falcons are like the NFC’s version of the Bengals. Cincinnati used the draft to stock up with playmakers and went through free agency to build its defense. So did Atlanta. The Falcons have a better offensive line, but the general roster-building plan is similar.

There’s one very significant difference. The Bengals used the No. 1 pick in 2020 to land Joe Burrow. The Falcons passed on Justin Fields to draft Kyle Pitts in 2021, selected Desmond Ridder in the third round of the 2022 draft, then didn’t move up to take Anthony Richardson with the No. 3 pick in 2023. Bijan Robinson has been exciting as a rookie, but the preseason talk about how he was going to be used as a unique playmaker has mostly turned out to be nonsense. Robinson has six catches for 58 yards on 46 routes out of the slot all season, and 33 of those yards came on a glorified jet sweep last Sunday.

While the offense has dominated the conversation, the defense has been what has fueled the Falcons. With Jessie Bates III in the middle of an All-Pro season, the Falcons rank seventh in QBR allowed and expected points added (EPA) per play. It’s an unfamiliar concept in Atlanta, where the defense hasn’t been above-average since 2017, but this is the best defense it has rolled out in a long time.

So, the Falcons have a resurgent defense, exciting young playmakers (who rarely see the ball) and a quarterback who has already been benched once in 2023. A new coaching regime would have no allegiance to Ridder, who ranks 24th in QBR with four games to go. There will be some coaches who see a Falcons opening and think that they could make better use of Atlanta’s highly drafted receivers with better quarterback play and more obvious playcalling.

Arthur Blank has generally been one of the NFL’s most patient team owners, which is a reason this opening is unlikely to become available. Jim Mora got three years. Bobby Petrino left after one year, but Mike Smith was in the job for seven seasons. Dan Quinn was fired partway through his sixth season. Then again, Mora, Mike Smith and Quinn all made the playoffs within two seasons of taking over; Arthur Smith would be finishing his third season without a playoff berth if the Falcons don’t make it in 2023.

Will Blank want to spend heavily on a quarterback? He has never hesitated to back his coaches before, but the Falcons went on a spending spree last offseason, signing six of their 10 most oft-used defensive players this season in free agency while also handing out big contracts to offensive linemen Kaleb McGary and Chris Lindstrom. The Falcons have over $30 million in cap space, so they’ll have room to work with, but most coaches prefer to be present during the season when the vast majority is spent, not the year after. Given that there’s still room in the budget and enough to be excited about around the questions at quarterback, I suspect the Falcons would draw plenty of interest if we see a split between the league’s two Arthurs after the year.

2. Los Angeles Chargers

Pros: Franchise quarterback, top-end talent on both sides of the ball, location

Cons: Lofty expectations, perennial home-field disadvantage, roster in transition, division

Come coach Justin Herbert. Those four words are enough to make this job more appealing than the majority of the other opportunities out there, especially for the offensive-minded coaches who will draw the most attention this offseason. If you’re Lions coordinator Ben Johnson, why coach Bryce Young, Justin Fields or even Drake Maye when you can take over a team that has Herbert, a 25-year-old capable of making any throw on the field? It’s tempting to just leave the explanation there.

Over the past few years, the Chargers have boasted a core as exciting as that of any other team. As we hit the end of a disappointing 2023 campaign, though, that core doesn’t seem quite as appealing. Austin Ekeler is coming off his worst season as a starter and is about to hit free agency. Keenan Allen is 31 and coming due for a new deal. Mike Williams missed most of 2023 with a torn ACL and is about to enter the final year of his pact. Corey Linsley has been sidelined since September with a heart condition. Rookie first-round pick Quentin Johnston is having one of the worst rookie seasons we’ve seen from a wide receiver.

Things are worrisome on the defensive side of the ball, too. J.C. Jackson turned out to be a disastrous free agent signing, and the Chargers had to eat significant money to deal him to the Patriots. Fellow starting corner Michael Davis was benched earlier this season. Kenneth Murray Jr. never developed into even a solid linebacker and will be a free agent after the season. Joey Bosa, meanwhile, has missed 16 games over the past two seasons and has played more than 60% of the defensive snaps in a game just twice since October 2022.

There are unquestionable positives. Khalil Mack is having a resurgent season, although he’s 32 and about to enter the final year of his contract. Derwin James Jr. is still an excellent safety, albeit one with a penchant for committing personal fouls. Rashawn Slater and Jamaree Salyer are building blocks up front. The Chargers’ special teams, a longtime weakness, is the league’s best this season by DVOA.

The dream of a coach coming in and landing a plug-and-play championship roster is gone. Herbert is no longer on a rookie deal, and while his cap hit won’t rise north of $20 million until 2025, the next coach won’t have the same sort of bargain-contract quarterback Brandon Staley had for his tenure with this team. Slater is due for a new deal after 2023 as well. The Chargers are $44 million over the projected cap next year, so while they can and will restructure deals to make the calculations work, this is a very different situation than the one Staley inherited in 2020.

Is it still appealing? Of course. Herbert is Herbert. Players are always going to want to play in Los Angeles, even if the Chargers have a bad habit of having their stadium overrun by opposition fans. (Herbert is just 16-16 at home, and his numbers are slightly better on the road than they are in Inglewood, which is not usually the case for quarterbacks who play their home games in what amounts to a dome.) Being stuck in a division with Patrick Mahomes isn’t going to be fun, but most coaches will feel like they have a shot to beat anybody with Herbert on the field. I’m just not sure what’s around him is quite as appealing as it seemed a few years ago.

1. Chicago Bears

Pros: Draft capital, access to potential star quarterback, young roster

Cons: High-stakes decision to be made immediately, significant work needed on line of scrimmage

Thanks to the trade with the Panthers from last March, the Bears have a 99% chance of landing one of the top two picks in the 2024 draft. They have just under a 95% chance of landing the No. 1 pick outright, which would put them in an enviable position. They would be able to keep Justin Fields, use the pick they’re landing from Carolina to trade down and amass a franchise-altering amount of draft capital. They could also draft Drake Maye or Caleb Williams and trade Fields to one of the teams that isn’t in position to land its new passer. Plus, their own pick is projected to land at No. 7, which gives them even more flexibility.

I don’t know that a new coach will have the final say in that discussion, but if the Bears do fire Matt Eberflus, whoever they hire will be part of the process in terms of making a final decision about what to do at quarterback. Either option can work: Fields has flashed plenty of promising characteristics, and landing three or four first-round picks is the best path toward building a championship-caliber team. The most valuable asset in football, however, is a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback with years to go on a rookie deal. Neither option is assured, but whoever takes this job will be intrigued by whichever choice Chicago eventually makes.

At the same time, this isn’t going to be an easy call. The new coach will have to be involved in this process without ever working with Fields or spending much time with general manager Ryan Poles. It’s a good choice to have, but if the Bears and their new coach get it wrong, it might be enough to sink that coach’s tenure with the organization. That’s not going to preclude many coaches from being willing to join if they believe in whoever ends up quarterbacking this team, but it’s a reality of the situation: The biggest call of this coach’s life is going to be made with imperfect information.

While the Bears have shown signs of life on both sides of the ball and could be 7-6 with some better work holding on to fourth-quarter leads this season, even the most hard-core fans would admit there’s more to be done to build this team into a contender. Montez Sweat will lock down one edge rusher spot for years to come, but the Bears need a second edge rusher and an interior disruptor. Braxton Jones might not be the long-term left tackle. If free agents Jaylon Johnson and Darnell Mooney leave after the season, Chicago will need new starters at wide receiver and cornerback.

The Bears still need stars on both sides of the football, but with the league’s third-youngest roster, the players Poles has added over the past couple of seasons still have time to develop. This will be the most important offseason of his tenure, given that the general manager will need to make decisions about whether he wants to replace his coach and quarterback in a matter of weeks. While it can be nerve-racking to see the coach before the new hire get fired two seasons into a rebuild, I don’t think Poles will lack for options if the Bears want to lean toward a more offensive-minded replacement for Eberflus in 2024.

Interesting that two words that do not appear in Barnwell’s assessment of the Bears are “Kevin Warren.”  Because from everything else we are seeing, the relatively new team president is anxious to put his mark on the franchise, just like he did the Big Ten.  That could include firing Poles, or it could just mean putting Poles in a clearly subordinate position.  But rest assured, Warren would be hiring the next coach, not Poles.