The Daily Briefing Friday, December 16, 2022

THE DAILY BRIEFING

AROUND THE NFL

With the loss by the Seahawks on Thursday, here is how the NFC’s final two Wild Card spots shape up.  The winner of Sunday night’s Giants-Commanders game will have a leg up on the 2nd spot.

Dallas              WC1                10-3                 2          7-3

Washington     WC2                 7-5-1               3          4-4-1

NY Giants       WC3                 7-5-1               4          3-5-1

Seattle                                      7-7                  2          5-6

Detroit                                      6-7                  2          5-4

Detroit has to get ahead of Seattle – the Seahawks have a head-to-head win.

NFC EAST

 

DALLAS

LB MICAH PARSONS got everyone riled up in Philadelphia – a town that doesn’t need help getting agitated.  Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:

Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons intended his comments on The VonCast as a tip of the helmet to the Eagles defense. Instead, they came off as a shot at Jalen Hurts‘ MVP candidacy.

 

Two days later, though, Parsons didn’t take anything back.

 

“You’ve got to stand on everything you say just as a man,” Parsons said, via Schuyler Dixon of the Associated Press. “Obviously, they small clipped it and took one line of what was rally talked about. No pun intended or no disrespect to Hurts. I think he’s doing great this year. But you know me. I’m a defensive guy, and I said the Eagles defense is the team to watch. They have hell of a [lot of] players over there, making plays all year, from a defensive aspect, I know how offensive guys get all the credit, so I just want to stick up for the defensive guys.

 

“The conversation was most valuable player. Is it just quarterback? . . . That’s what the conversation was about. That’s where I stand on it.”

 

The second-year defender created another controversy during his interview with Bills pass rusher Von Miller, who tried to help Parsons wiggle his way out of war of words with the Eagles. But Parsons doubled down, explaining, “I just love the game so much, and I understand it so much, that when things are off, I just can’t hold it in. I’ve almost got to say something.”

 

Needless to say, it didn’t go over well in Philadelphia.

 

“I’m sure they hate me,” Parsons said.

 

Parsons has never shied away from expressing his opinion, no matter how controversial. He got into hot water last week with his Twitter comments following WNBA star Brittney Griner’s release from Russian captivity. Parsons later apologized.

 

He is not apologizing for questioning whether it’s the Eagles’ system and their personnel — not Hurts’ play — that has led to the league’s best record. Parsons, though, insists he did not intend to be disrespectful toward Hurts, a favorite for the MVP award.

 

“I was just having a good conversation with Von, a person I look up to, helped him on his podcast and the next thing I know it’s a shit storm,” Parsons said. “You see how that goes. We were just talking football. Not once did I ever disrespect Hurts or any other player in any way. I’m just talking football. If football is a hurtful conversation, then what are we playing for? I think the job is more hurtful than the conversation, you know. If we can’t opinions. . . I mean, you guys get to talk shit all day. Why can’t we talk a little chatter? I don’t understand what’s so hurtful when we talk about each other. We’re the players. We play every day. So, I think people should have opinions.”

 

The Eagles and Cowboys play again Christmas Eve. Philadelphia won the first meeting 26-17 in Week 6 when Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott was out injured, and the Eagles have a two-game lead in the division.

NFC WEST

 

SAN FRANCISCO

The Man Who Saved The Season, QB BROCK PURDY got the job done on Thursday night in Seattle.  Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com:

With a couple of exceptions, nobody on the San Francisco 49ers knows better than defensive lineman Arik Armstead just how hard it is to beat the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field.

 

For all of Armstead’s eight years in the NFL, he has been part of teams that have come to Seattle and left with disappointing losses. There was only one notable exception, in 2019, when the Niners beat the Seahawks in a thriller to clinch the NFC West division and the NFC’s No. 1 seed.

 

After Thursday night, there are now two notable exceptions, as the Niners jumped on the Seahawks early and held on for a 21-13 win. And, for the second time in four seasons, the Niners were able to enjoy a T-shirt-and-hat celebration in the stadium of their biggest nemesis.

 

“I’ve only done it twice in my eight years, so that shows you how hard it is,” Armstead said of clinching the NFC West. “And to do it against Seattle, we wouldn’t want it any other way. A team that has been a thorn in our side ever since I’ve been here. So, to get it done against them definitely felt great.”

 

Just like in 2019, the 49ers claimed the division crown on Seattle’s home field, and, with three games to play, it’s the earliest they’ve wrapped up the division since 2011. Perhaps not coincidentally, it’s also the first time San Francisco has swept the Seahawks since that 2011 season.

 

With the win, the Niners improved to 10-4 and claimed their seventh straight victory, their longest winning streak since an eight-game tear in 2019. The victory ensures they can finish no lower than the No. 3 seed in the NFC playoffs.

 

The 49ers close out the season with a home game against the Washington Commanders on Christmas Eve, a visit to the Las Vegas Raiders on New Year’s Day and by hosting the Arizona Cardinals in the season finale.

 

Although San Francisco has been plagued by injuries and could use the down time to get healthy, it can still realistically catch the 10-3 Minnesota Vikings for the No. 2 seed.

 

“This isn’t our final goal by any means,” coach Kyle Shanahan said. “I’m very proud of our team and what we accomplished throughout the year to get to this. Our goal is to get into the tournament, and we accomplished that today, but now it’s all trying to set that up to be the best situation we can and hopefully get some of our guys back, too, in the process.”

 

At the top of the “needs to heal” list is rookie quarterback Brock Purdy. On a short week after suffering a rib and oblique issue Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Purdy didn’t so much as attempt a single pass in practice this week.

 

In fact, the only throwing he did before pregame warm-ups Thursday night was at a hotel ballroom during the team’s day-of-game walk-through in Seattle. Even during warm-ups, Shanahan believed there was a chance Purdy might not play or, at minimum, not be able to finish the game. Veteran quarterback Josh Johnson was on standby.

 

But Purdy, the 262nd and final pick in the 2022 NFL draft, said he never doubted he’d play against the Seahawks.

 

“I knew I was going to come out to start the game off and just try to get into a rhythm and see how my oblique and all that kind of stuff felt,” Purdy said. “And then make a decision. But my mindset was, ‘Man, I’m coming into this place to play and to start.'”

 

Purdy not only finished the game but put together another strong, mistake-free outing. Aside from a throw that should have been intercepted just before half, Purdy never put the ball in harm’s way, finishing with no interceptions and two touchdowns while completing 17 of 26 passes for 217 yards with a passer rating of 117.0.

 

Two starts into his young NFL career, Purdy has completed 70% of his attempts with four touchdowns and no interceptions, making him just the third quarterback — along with Aaron Rodgers and Jimmy Garoppolo — since 1950 to hit those marks in his first two starts.

 

Purdy even flashed his speed and poise with a late third-down scramble that helped ice the game.

 

“It was another level for me just watching someone do it,” Shanahan said. “The injury he had last week and for him to be ready to go today, which you still could tell in pregame warm-ups a number of things that were really tough for him, and for him to be able to just play, let alone the way he did, to protect the ball, he struggled to move a little bit at times. … Our team had a lot of respect for him before the game but a lot more now.”

 

Purdy also got plenty of help as tight end George Kittle finished with four catches for 93 yards and a pair of touchdowns, the Niners’ defense held a seventh straight opponent to 17 points or fewer and running back Christian McCaffrey did his usual heavy lifting.

 

McCaffrey finished with 32 touches for 138 yards from scrimmage and had a rushing touchdown. It was his fifth game with 100-plus scrimmage yards, making him the second midseason acquisition to hit that number, joining Eric Dickerson, who had six in 1987 for the Indianapolis Colts, according to Elias Sports Bureau research.

 

It’s no coincidence the 49ers are 7-0 since McCaffrey stepped into a full-time starter role in Week 8. Before that, San Francisco was averaging 20.7 points per game. Since then, the Niners have averaged 27.6 points per game.

Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

The 49ers have won three games in a row since Jimmy Garoppolo was injured and third-string seventh-round rookie Brock Purdy became their quarterback, and 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said after Thursday night’s game it was “unbelievable” how well Purdy played.

 

Shanahan said after the 49ers’ win over the Seahawks that he’s never seen a rookie like Purdy.

 

“He’s definitely the most poised rookie I’ve ever had,” Shanahan said. “He’s been like that since he got here. From what I hear about him in college he was very similar, starting as a freshman. He’s been great. He was poised all week, even being unsure whether he’d be able to go or not. I think that was uneasy for him because he didn’t know what to expect until he got into the game, but under the circumstances we didn’t have any other options.”

 

Purdy now has six touchdown passes and just one interception in his three games, the 49ers have won all three, and they look like they’re going to be just fine with their third-string quarterback in the playoffs.

If it was all about the money, GM John Lynch would not be GM John Lynch.  Wagoner:

The San Francisco 49ers were less than 24 hours removed from their 2021 season ending in devastating fashion, and coach Kyle Shanahan’s tank was running low.

 

In the minds of Shanahan, general manager John Lynch and the Niners coaches and players, the season ended a game too early, as they coughed up a fourth-quarter lead to eventual Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship Game. Now, it was up to Lynch and Shanahan to pick up the pieces before the Niners went their separate ways. Shanahan asked Lynch to address the team with encouraging words for the months ahead.

 

As a Hall of Fame safety, Lynch had come up short before eventually breaking through by winning Super Bowl XXXVII with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. With that experience in mind, he wanted to deliver a message centered on the fortitude it takes to push through the pain of losing and come out on the other side better for it.

 

Everyone listening at the 49ers’ facility knew the faces would change in the offseason, with many players scheduled for free agency and coaches ticketed for other opportunities. Behind the scenes, Lynch was already pondering if he, too, would be on the way out.

 

In the weeks before the season ended, Lynch had been made aware that Prime Video, which would begin exclusively airing “Thursday Night Football” in 2022, was looking to fill out its broadcasting booth and willing to pay big money for recognizable names.

 

Lynch, who spent nine years as a color analyst at Fox, was near the top of the list. But as he stood before the assembled players and coaches on locker room clean out day, he couldn’t shake the same feeling of everyone in the room: unfinished business.

 

“I remember vividly being up there and saying, ‘I can’t leave these guys here,'” Lynch said. “I’m telling them here’s what it’s gonna take … Right then is when I knew.”

 

What Lynch knew was that regardless of the money, he couldn’t leave because his mission — to bring the 49ers a sixth Lombardi Trophy — was incomplete.

 

In nearly six years as general manager, Lynch has rarely talked at length about how his time on the job has been. He doesn’t love talking about himself, but recently sat down for a long conversation about the many hats he’s worn as general manager. Yet, he always comes back to the one he wants the most: world champion.

 

From the moment Shanahan and Lynch arrived in 2017 and reaffirmed with contract extensions in 2020, it’s been their obsession.

 

“I feel like it’s a demand,” Lynch said of winning a Super Bowl. “It kills me. Like, I can’t even tell you.”

 

In 2019, the Niners lost Super Bowl LIV to the Kansas City Chiefs. In 2012, before Lynch and Shanahan arrived, they fell to the Baltimore Ravens in Super Bowl XLVII. They again knocked on the door last year, coming up short but holding out hope they’re on the verge of kicking it down.

 

All of which is why Lynch, even after going through what he calls “the mechanics” of meeting with Prime Video executives and learning what the job might pay — reports indicate it could have roughly tripled Lynch’s salary to somewhere between $12 million and $15 million per year — wasn’t ready to walk away from what he and Shanahan had built.

 

It’s why Thursday night, when the Niners will try to clinch the NFC West with a victory over the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video), Lynch will be watching from an owner’s box rather than a broadcast booth. And why Shanahan, who encouraged Lynch to consider the broadcasting job given its massive payday, is happy Lynch is still around to pursue the Lombardi Trophy.

 

“All I tried to tell him was when you have opportunities like this, like that’s too much to not make the right decision for you and your family,” Shanahan said. “Don’t just do something because you feel loyal to the Niners or loyal to me. It never was about the money really for John … it’s because he really loves being a part of a team.

 

“We love him here. I think he loves being here and hope he’s here for a long time.”

 

IN MANY WAYS, Lynch and Troy Aikman are kindred spirits. Both enjoyed Hall of Fame-playing careers before going on to success in the broadcast booth. What they didn’t know is that each aspired to run an NFL franchise, as they missed being part of a team and going home with a result — good or bad — each Sunday.

 

Which is why Aikman, who’s the color analyst for “Monday Night Football,” likes to joke with Lynch and Shanahan that had the Fox broadcasting schedule been a little bit different in the 2016 playoffs, Aikman, not Lynch, would be the Niners general manager.

 

At the time, Aikman worked on Fox’s top broadcasting crew with Joe Buck while Lynch was on the No. 2 team. When the playoff assignments were doled out, Lynch drew the Atlanta Falcons in the divisional round. It was in those production meetings and previous weeks of Lynch covering Falcons games that he and Shanahan, then Atlanta’s offensive coordinator ticketed for the Niners job, began discussing the idea of Lynch coming to San Francisco.

 

By the time Buck and Aikman were in a production meeting with Shanahan the following week for the NFC Championship Game, they had a good idea Lynch was going to San Francisco with Shanahan, who had been linked to the Niners as head coach for multiple weeks and would take the job as soon as Atlanta’s season ended.

 

“My first question to Kyle when he came into our production meeting, I asked him, ‘Kyle, are you telling me that if Fox had assigned me the divisional game for Atlanta that I’d be your GM right now?'” Aikman said, laughing. “But John Lynch is an all-time great person. He’s an old-school football guy. A great fit for those two. They’ve had enormous success.”

 

Lynch’s hiring came with plenty of questions. He would be a first-time general manager who had no formal experience on the personnel side and was joining Shanahan, a first-time head coach.

 

Shanahan didn’t care about going the unconventional route. He wanted someone who was honest, who could work well with people and would work hard so he could pick up things without direction.

 

It was an outside-the-box hire for a team that needed a massive rebuild both from a roster and culture standpoint after cycling through three coaches in as many years. At the time, Niners CEO Jed York emphasized the importance of having a tandem that could work through decisions and find the right solution even if they initially disagreed.

 

Lynch and Shanahan knew each other a bit from Lynch’s four seasons playing for Mike Shanahan with the Denver Broncos. They also shared a common affinity for the 49ers, with Shanahan loving the team as a kid when his dad was offensive coordinator and Lynch playing college ball at nearby Stanford for legendary coach Bill Walsh.

 

They quickly discovered a shared passion for restoring the franchise to greatness.

 

“He was the perfect guy to build a team with,” Shanahan said. “Not just the players, but the whole coaching staff, the whole personnel department … You had plenty of guys with experience who could do stuff and he hadn’t had that. But I think most people in that situation, they have a hard time admitting that they don’t know stuff.”

 

NEAR THE START of every 49ers practice as players go through stretching and individual drills, Shanahan and Lynch play catch. For Shanahan, it’s an opportunity to loosen his right arm before taking his spot as the quarterback opposite the starting defense during group game plan install.

 

It’s also a chance for Shanahan and Lynch to stay connected. The pair rarely talk business as they toss the ball around, but their daily routine has roots in a piece of advice Lynch received from former Bucs and Indianapolis Colts coach Tony Dungy when he first took the general manager job.

 

Lynch, who played for Dungy with the Bucs, remembers Dungy telling him to create opportunities to spend time with Shanahan so necessary discussions can come up organically.

 

“The general manager kind of impacts the front office and the staff,” Dungy said. “The head coach impacts the coaching staff and the players. And when you get everybody with the same message on board thinking alike, it’s really important. And then in the decision-making process, you want to be together, too. I told John I thought that was really important and I really think he and Kyle have that.”

 

While Shanahan and Lynch have developed a close bond, Lynch is the eternal optimist that Shanahan jokingly calls “Captain America” while Shanahan is a natural skeptic who prefers to be described as realistic over pessimistic but acknowledges both traits.

 

When a potential roster move arises, it’s not unusual for Lynch to be met with Shanahan’s immediate cynicism. Shanahan likens the process of big roster moves to buying a house with his wife, where he will point out everything wrong with it to her as a means to determine whether those things can be worked past.

 

That push and pull, with neither side taking disagreements personally, is necessary. Dungy recalls the Colts’ picking wideout Pierre Garcon in the sixth round of the 2008 draft.

 

Colts GM Bill Polian viewed Garcon as an intriguing developmental prospect, while Dungy believed the wideout from tiny Mount Union College was too raw. It was the classic battle of long-term versus short-term. The long-term won out and Garcon went on to play 11 years with 628 receptions for 7,854 yards and 38 touchdowns, coincidentally ending his career with the Niners after becoming one of Lynch and Shanahan’s first free agent additions.

 

WHEN LYNCH ARRIVED in 2017, he and Shanahan set out on a teardown and a plan to play it conservative on the rebuild. And for the most part, they did. Until October. That’s when they traded for quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, effectively scuttling their initial plan to try to sign Kirk Cousins in free agency the following March and giving Garoppolo the first shot at becoming their franchise quarterback.

 

It was the first significant pivot from the Niners’ initial team-building plan and a harbinger of things to come.

 

After making what Lynch called the easiest decision of his tenure to draft end Nick Bosa with the No. 2 pick in the 2019 draft, then landing receiver Deebo Samuel in the second round, Lynch and Shanahan took stock of what was happening around them. Like the NBA, the NFL was becoming an increasingly star-powered league.

 

They’ve since made big trades for the likes of left tackle Trent Williams, running back Christian McCaffrey and up the draft board for quarterback Trey Lance.

 

“It feels like in all of these sports right now, it takes these superstars [to win],” Lynch said. “You understand those guys are essential to winning. The whole team is, every person out there is, but you need those guys. I think we’ve got as many of those guys as anybody. And that’s why we have a chance.”

 

Those moves have been supplemented by finding some superstars — such as Bosa, Samuel, linebacker Fred Warner and tight end George Kittle — in the draft. And the Niners have found a way to keep most of those players, even when it seemed unlikely. That’s most notably true in the case of Garoppolo.

 

After a long offseason unsuccessfully spent trying to trade Garoppolo, it seemed there was little chance he would be back. During an August practice, Lynch strolled up to Shanahan and suggested bringing Garoppolo back at a reduced rate. Per custom, Shanahan said “no way,” not because he didn’t want to retain Garoppolo but because he didn’t think the quarterback would go for it.

 

Lynch preached patience, encouraging Shanahan to let it all play out. Eventually, much to the surprise of many, Garoppolo stayed. Just as Samuel, running back Raheem Mostert and kicker Robbie Gould all had after at one point requesting a trade.

 

“When [guys like that] come in and say, ‘Hey, I wanna be someplace else,’ you just go, ‘No, you wanna be here,'” Lynch said. “You rely on that good foundation of a relationship you have because you understand those guys are essential to winning.”

 

That’s not to say, of course, that every move Lynch and Shanahan have made has worked out. Far from it.

 

Lynch has called trading defensive tackle DeForest Buckner the hardest move he’s made. The trade for end Dee Ford and signing of linebacker Kwon Alexander were big whiffs, and the draft is littered with selections, even near the top, that haven’t worked out.

 

Even an under-the-radar move like losing cornerback D.J. Reed on waivers still stings. Reed was a fifth-round pick in the 2018 draft whom the Niners believed had starter potential. Heading into his third season, Reed was dealing with a torn pectoral.

 

After exploring options to keep him, they waived Reed with an injury designation believing he would clear waivers and revert to their injured reserve list. The Seahawks claimed Reed, who became a starter and earned a three-year, $33 million deal from the New York Jets in the offseason.

 

Lynch acknowledges the misses but doesn’t wince at their mention. He knows mistakes come with the job and likens it to playing safety, where you’re the last line of defense and if you give up a big touchdown everyone knows it’s your fault.

 

The choice Lynch sees is to dwell on it or learn from it.

 

“Take note when you really covet a player, don’t try to be cute,” Lynch said. “Those things stick with you but when you’re aligned and you do things together, like everyone’s gotta own it, you know? And I think we all learned from that one.”

 

HANGING ABOVE LYNCH’S desk in his office at the 49ers facility is a picture of him and his family from the day he was hired. On a recent afternoon, Lynch looks up at the photo and marvels at how much his family has changed since.

 

After a one-year delay, Lynch’s family relocated to the Bay Area from San Diego, much to the chagrin of his daughter Lindsay. He jokes that telling your teenage daughter she has to move before her senior year of high school is a bolder move than anything he could do as general manager.

 

More than anything, he’s sure to credit his family for supporting his decision to leave the broadcast booth.

 

“I look back, it’s been fun,” Lynch said. “It’s been an adventure. It’s been worthwhile. It’s been fulfilling, I’m very appreciative of my family, very appreciative for the opportunity.”

 

One of the first things Lynch said after taking the job was that he didn’t know what he didn’t know. In order to learn, he took another cue from Dungy and surrounded himself with people he believed in.

 

Paraag Marathe, the Niners’ executive vice president of football operations, and Brian Hampton, the team’s vice president of football operations, have been instrumental in handling salary cap and contract issues, an area Lynch says is a work in progress for him.

 

Assistant general manager Adam Peters is his top lieutenant and player personnel director Ran Carthon has been key in assisting with scouting talent.

 

Both have interviewed for general manager jobs elsewhere in the past year. Either would be a candidate to replace Lynch if he left.

 

“We have a lot of people on the staff that we’re always trying to groom,” Shanahan said. “Not just to replace one of us someday but also to help them get opportunities in other places. We’ve got lots of good guys here that we feel confident in but John’s our guy and I hope that we don’t have to deal with that for a long time.”

 

By his own admission, Lynch is almost too focused on the here and now, rarely looking beyond the 24 hours in front of him. Which means he’s spent little time considering when he might be done in San Francisco’s front office.

 

Lynch works in a building with constant reminders of the Niners’ five world championships. He admits he doesn’t see himself walking away until he’s added at least No. 6.

 

“I’m still very motivated to get up and come to work every day,” Lynch said. “I’m challenged and I’m enjoying myself. I’m still motivated to get this place back to where it once was. And that’s on the top.”

 

SEATTLE

Seattle’s sagging playoff hopes took an injury hit Thursday night. Mike Florio ofProFootballTalk.com:

The 7-7 Seahawks will be fighting for a wild-card berth without one of their best offensive players.

 

Coach Pete Carroll told reporters after the 21-13 loss to the 49ers that receiver Tyler Lockett suffered a broken index finger during the team’s final drive of the night. Lockett, Carroll added, could be out for the rest of the season.

 

“I can’t fathom playing without Tyler,” Carroll told reporters.

 

Lockett, in his eighth year, has 964 receiving yards on the season, the most on the team. He had seven catches for 68 yards on Thursday night.

 

His absence will place more of a burden on other pass catchers, starting with DK Metcalf. It also will underscore the importance of the running game to Seattle’s shot at winning enough of the team’s remaining games to qualify for the postseason.

 

Seattle finishes the campaign with games against the Chiefs, Jets, and Rams. They’re currently the No. 8 seed in the NFC; they’ll hold that spot regardless of how the rest of Week 15 plays out.

AFC EAST

 

MIAMI

This:

@NateGearySports

The Miami Dolphins are the only Stadium in sports where the opponent is forced to sit in the sun in 30-40 degrees hotter than the home team, but yeah a foot of snow is real that BOTH teams have to equally deal with us a problem…

 

Quote Tweet

Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz

@LeBatardShow

“The Buffalo Bills should be mandated by the NFL to have a dome over their stadium. This shit is ridiculous…Buffalo, as a weather city, should probably not have a football team.” – a very spicy @ChrisWittyngham

 

THIS AND THAT

 

QB WEAKNESSES

Aaron Schaatz of Football Outsiders (writing in ESPN.com) tells us the weaknesses of the top QBs:

I delved deep into our data at Football Outsiders (as well as ESPN Stats & Information’s numbers) to identify weaknesses for the starting quarterbacks of all 32 teams. The resulting numbers combine Football Outsiders DVOA and ESPN Total QBR, incorporating ESPN charting and NFL Next Gen Stats tracking. Some of these weaknesses are issues these players have been dealing with for years. Other weaknesses have only appeared in 2022 and, in some cases, are directly counter to the player’s stat splits in previous seasons.

 

Let’s start with AFC quarterbacks.

 

AFC

 

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Jackson’s weakness is that he struggles when he needs to throw the ball on third down, with his DVOA consistently ranking lower for third-down passes than for his passing overall. Through Week 12, Baltimore ranked 19th on third-down passes compared with seventh on all passes. Last year, Baltimore was a horrid 28th on third-down passes compared with 16th on all passes. Jackson is reportedly dealing with a PCL sprain in his knee and could miss the next two games, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter.

 

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

One of Allen’s relative weaknesses is facing the blitz. He is not the worst quarterback in the league when opponents blitz, but there’s definitely a drop-off compared with other plays. This year, Allen has a 66.0 QBR against the blitz, which ranks 17th in the league. Last year, he had a 56.1 QBR against the blitz, which was 23rd. And by comparison, Allen ranks first in the league with a 77.0 QBR on non-blitzes and was second in those situations last season. A big problem with the blitz is that Allen’s accuracy goes awry. He has a 24.2% off-target percentage this year when blitzed, 31st out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks.

 

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

Burrow is much stronger against man coverage compared with zone coverage this season. He ranks 18th with a 48.9 QBR against zone, compared with ranking ninth with a 70.8 QBR against man. The splits in 2021 were similar but smaller: 58.7 (13th) against zone and 73.6 (11th) against man.

 

Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns

It’s hard to find a specific Watson weakness when you go back two years to the 2020 Houston Texans. Watson was good against blitzes and standard pass rushes, against pressure or no pressure, on deep and short passes, and on passes in every direction. The one weakness came on third downs. Houston ranked eighth in pass DVOA overall but just 16th on third and fourth downs.

 

Watson has played two games this year after an 11-game suspension for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy by committing sexual assault as defined by the league. In those two games, he is struggling on third downs and would rank next-to-last if he had enough pass attempts to qualify for ranking. However, this isn’t a problem that has lasted Watson’s entire career. For example, in 2019, Watson was better on third down than on first or second down.

 

Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos

Contrary to popular belief, Wilson has not been horrible at everything this season. He is throwing deep (16-plus air yards) more than any other quarterback, and those throws have been productive. Wilson ranks 10th in DVOA on deep throws. The problem has been the shorter throws. On those passes, Wilson ranks 29th out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks. Maybe that’s why Wilson and the Broncos have struggled so much in the red zone this season: There’s no fear of a deeper throw when you don’t have as much field to work with.

 

Davis Mills, Houston Texans

Mills has been horrible passing on third downs, when passing is most important (and most expected by the defense). This year, Mills has a minus-63.4% DVOA on third downs, the second lowest in the league for a quarterback with at least 20 third-down passes. (Baker Mayfield is the worst at minus-69.3%.) Last year, Mills was better but still had minus-23.8% DVOA on third downs compared with only minus-2.7% on first and second downs.

 

Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts

Get Ryan out of the pocket and he’s toast. Ryan has a minuscule 2.4 QBR, the worst in the league, on plays where he’s forced out of the pocket this season. But this might be related more to the Colts’ offense than to Ryan himself. Last season in Atlanta, Ryan actually ranked eighth with a 73.1 QBR when forced out of the pocket … while Carson Wentz in Indianapolis was 28th out of 31 quarterbacks with a 24.9 QBR outside the pocket.

 

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Lawrence has struggled this year when defenses disguise coverage before the snap. So far, he has been in for 108 plays that ESPN charting marks as “disguised coverage” and has a 25.3 QBR on those plays, 30th out of 31 quarterbacks. This was also a problem for Lawrence during his rookie year, when he ranked 27th with a 39.2 QBR on plays with disguised coverage.

 

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Mahomes does not have any absolute weaknesses, only relative weaknesses. The biggest this year is probably against pass pressure. With no pressure, Mahomes leads the NFL with an 86.6 QBR, and Jalen Hurts is the only other quarterback over 80. But with pass pressure, Mahomes is sixth in QBR at 48.1.

 

This weakness is a flip from last season. In 2021, Mahomes was just ninth in QBR without pass pressure (72.4) but ranked third behind Dak Prescott and Josh Allen in QBR with pass pressure (56.7).

 

Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders

Carr has struggled in the fourth quarter this season, which is one of the reasons the Raiders have blown all those big leads. He ranks 24th with a minus-22.5% passing DVOA in the fourth quarter. What’s interesting about this one is that it runs so counter to the rest of Carr’s career. Carr has an excellent record in the fourth quarter, especially in the fourth quarter of one-score games. In 2021, he had a 32.1% DVOA in the fourth quarter of one-score games. It was 21.4% in 2020 and 38.2% in 2019.

 

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Herbert tends to struggle in the second half of games. That sounds wrong — given that we all remember Herbert connecting on fourth down after fourth down late in the game against Las Vegas that closed last year’s regular season — but it’s true.

 

This year, Herbert has a 14.6% passing DVOA before halftime. That would rank sixth in the NFL on its own. After halftime, he drops to minus-18.2% DVOA. That would rank 28th.

 

This was also a problem in Herbert’s first two years, although less of one. Herbert’s passing DVOA dropped from 23.4% before halftime to 12.3% after halftime in 2021. It dropped from 22.8% before halftime to minus-2.8% after halftime in 2020.

 

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

The Miami passing game was so strong this year — until the past two games — that it’s hard to find a split where Tagovailoa really shows a weakness without dipping into smaller sample sizes. However, he has had an issue with Cover 4 “quarters” coverage this season. We’re talking about just 40 pass plays, but Tagovailoa’s 18.6 QBR against Cover 4 ranks 27th among starting quarterbacks. This looks like a small-sample fluke, especially when we consider that in 2021 — when his overall performance was nowhere near as good — Tagovailoa was one of the league’s best quarterbacks against Cover 4 with an 84.8 QBR.

 

Mac Jones, New England Patriots

This one is a little weird. Jones is horrendous throwing to the left side of the field this year. He ranks 32nd out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks in DVOA on throws to the left side. By comparison, Jones ranks 11th on throws to the right side. This is a wild one-year split that doesn’t make much sense, especially because, as a rookie, Jones was better at throwing to the left side than the right side.

 

 

Mike White, New York Jets

We have only a three-game sample on White, but he has struggled so far on shorter throws. White has a 23.0 QBR on passes behind the line of scrimmage, which ranks 27th out of 49 quarterbacks with at least 50 attempts. His QBR on passes of 0-9 air yards is 31.6, which ranks 46th in the same group. By comparison, his QBR of 91.2 on passes of 10 or more air yards ranks seventh. This weakness so far this year is interesting because those short passes were a strength for White in his limited playing time a year ago. Not the passes behind the line of scrimmage, but the ones of 0-9 air yards. White had a 66.2 QBR on those passes in 2021.

 

Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers

Pickett’s relative weakness this year has been a poor performance when not pressured. Of course, Pickett has a lower QBR when pressured because nearly every quarterback has a lower QBR when pressured. However, Pickett ranks 13th in the league with a 24.9 QBR with pass pressure. But he’s 28th out of 31 qualifying quarterbacks with a 49.6 QBR when he’s not pressured.

 

Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans

Tannehill’s problem is that the Tennessee passing game just isn’t as good without the threat of the run to occupy the defense. Tannehill is consistently not as strong on second and third down compared to first down.

 

This year, the Titans rank third in the league in pass DVOA on first downs. But they drop to 25th on second downs and 22nd on third downs. Last year was not as extreme, but the Titans went from 12th in passing DVOA on first downs to 19th on second downs and 25th on third downs. Even in 2020, when the Titans’ offense was phenomenal, we saw similar trends (third on first and second downs, but seventh on third downs).

 

NFC

 

Colt McCoy, Arizona Cardinals

For new starter McCoy, a clear weakness is throwing against zone coverage. Over the past two seasons, McCoy has a 36.5 QBR against zone coverage, which ranks 39th among 51 quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts in 2021-22. By comparison, McCoy has a 78.8 QBR against man coverage, which ranks fourth behind only Allen, Taysom Hill (!) and Mahomes.

 

Kyler Murray, who suffered a season-ending torn ACL on Monday vs. the Patriots, was horrendous this season on deep throws, defined as passes over 15 yards through the air. He is one of only two quarterbacks with a negative DVOA on deep throws. What’s remarkable about this weakness in 2022 is that it was a massive strength just a year ago; Murray led the NFL in DVOA on deep throws in 2021.

 

Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons

Since Ridder has yet to play this season, we have to go back to last year’s college stats. At Cincinnati, he was not as strong against man coverage compared to zone. Ridder had a 59.5 QBR against man coverage with just a 49.4% completion rate, compared to a 75.3 QBR against zone looks with a 65.7% completion rate. He was better against man coverage in 2020, however, with a 68.4 QBR.

 

As for previous starter Marcus Mariota, you might have read that the Falcons replaced him with Ridder because of problems with deep passes. But Mariota also had trouble this year completing the easy passes behind the line of scrimmage. His completion rate of 75% and CPOE (completion percentage over expectation) of minus-10% are both the lowest in the league on passes behind the line.

 

Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers

We’ll learn more about Darnold looking at last year’s 12 games than looking at this year’s two. And last year, Carolina was by far the worst passing team on third and fourth downs. The Panthers had a minus-56.9% DVOA on third and fourth downs with Darnold as their primary quarterback in 2021. No other offense was below minus-31%.

 

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears

Fields’ biggest weakness is simple: He takes too many sacks. It will probably surprise you to learn that the Bears currently rank second in ESPN Analytics’ pass block win rate. Yet the Bears also have the worst adjusted sack rate in the league. In fact, Chicago has a 12.6% ASR, and no other offense is above 10%.

 

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Prescott has had trouble using the middle of the field this season. He is above average on passes to both the left and right sides of the field but ranks just 26th out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks in DVOA on passes to the middle. The good news is that this has not been a long-lasting problem. It seems to be just a 2022 issue, as Prescott has been above-average passing to the middle of the field in other seasons.

 

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

Goff has been surprisingly productive in 2022, ranking third in Football Outsiders’ passing DYAR. But he still struggles to throw deep passes to the outside. His QBR on deep passes (16-plus air yards) outside the numbers is 39.1, which ranks 28th among qualifying quarterbacks. He was much better on these passes in 2021 with a 62.8 QBR — but that still ranked him 23rd in the league.

 

For a comparison, Goff’s QBR on deep passes between the numbers is 98.3, tied for seventh in the NFL.

 

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

Rodgers has a problem with short throws this season, a problem that’s more about throws of a few yards than about screen passes behind the line of scrimmage. If we look at passes that travel between 1 and 10 air yards, Rodgers ranks just 30th in QBR. He also has a minus-3.3% CPOE on these passes. As you can imagine, this is a big change from Rodgers’ MVP seasons. Last year, Rodgers was third in QBR on these same throws.

 

Baker Mayfield, Los Angeles Rams

As for Mayfield, everything was a weakness when he was in Carolina earlier this year, but third downs stand out. Mayfield’s minus-69.3% DVOA this year on third or fourth down is the worst for any quarterback who has thrown at least 25 passes on those downs. This was also a problem in Cleveland in 2021, as Mayfield was average on first and second downs but ranked 29th in DVOA out of 32 quarterbacks with at least 80 throws on third and fourth downs (minus-40.1% DVOA).

 

Matthew Stafford’s statistics show a number of weaknesses in 2022. The problem is that most of those were not weaknesses in 2021. It’s hard to find something “real” when Stafford’s entire production collapsed this season. For example, Stafford was one of the league’s worst quarterbacks in the fourth quarter of games this year. But in 2021, he was one of the best QBs in the fourth quarter. Stafford struggled throwing deep this year but was great there in 2021.

 

Probably the most “real” weakness for Stafford is that he’s comparatively much worse under pressure. This year, Stafford’s QBR ranked 22nd without pressure but 24th with pressure. Last year, Stafford was second in QBR without pressure but dropped to 14th with pressure. And in Detroit in 2020, Stafford ranked 14th in QBR without pressure but dropped to 23rd with pressure.

 

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings

Cousins has problems with zone coverage — and has consistently had these problems for years. This has actually been less of an issue in 2022 than in the past couple of seasons, although that’s less because of strong performance against zone and more because Cousins’ QBR against man coverage is his lowest since the ESPN database of coverages began in 2016. Take a look at his year-by-year splits:

 

2022: 56.3 QBR vs. zone, 60.3 QBR vs. man

2021: 41.5 QBR vs. zone, 80.8 QBR vs. man

2020: 43.8 QBR vs. zone, 78.3 QBR vs. man

2019: 62.4 QBR vs. zone, 65.5 QBR vs. man

 

Andy Dalton, New Orleans Saints

Dalton appears to struggle specifically with Cover 3 defenses. This year, he has a 30.0 QBR against Cover 3, which ranks him 29th among qualifying quarterbacks. He didn’t have enough pass attempts to qualify for the ranking in the previous two seasons but had 40.8 QBR against Cover 3 in 2021 and 21.1 QBR there in 2020.

 

Daniel Jones, New York Giants

Jones is the exact opposite of New England quarterback Mac Jones. Daniel Jones has had difficulty throwing to his right side this year. Throwing to the left side, Jones is a top-10 quarterback with a 30.6% DVOA. Throwing in the middle of the field, he’s even better, with a 40.4% DVOA. But throwing to the right, Jones is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL with a 1.4% DVOA.

 

Unlike with Mac Jones, there is some evidence this split is not just a one-year fluke. The difference between left and right for Daniel Jones was much smaller in past years, but for three years, he has been better throwing to his left than throwing to his right.

 

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

This is a surprise because he is such a dangerous scrambler, but Hurts has been only an average quarterback under pressure this season. Without pressure, Hurts has an 82.4 QBR, which ranks second in the NFL. With pressure, Hurts drops to 25.5 in QBR, which ranks 12th. Take out scrambles, and Hurts drops even further to 10.7, which ranks 22nd in the league.

 

However, performance under pressure is generally less consistent than performance from a clean pocket, and Hurts is no exception. In 2021, Hurts ranked sixth in the league with a 49.7 QBR under pressure.

 

Hurts is also a good example of how weaknesses can be addressed, especially for young quarterbacks. Last year, Hurts was poor at throwing to the middle of the field and threw to the middle less than any other starting quarterback. But this year, Hurts is above average on throws to the middle and passes there with an average frequency (40% of his throws).

 

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

Purdy was called upon when Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a broken left foot in Week 13. It’s hard to find a weakness in a player who has essentially played only two games, but it’s worth noting that Purdy’s value this year is heavily dependent on third downs. Purdy is below average if we look only at first and second downs, with minus-4.7% DVOA. But he has been awesome on third downs, with 64.5% DVOA — which would rank third among quarterbacks if Purdy had enough pass attempts to qualify.

 

This is absolutely wild given what we know about the San Francisco offense and how it is structured, but Garoppolo struggled this year on play-action passes. Garoppolo had just a 26.7 QBR on these plays, tied for 29th in the league. Accuracy was part of the problem, as Garoppolo has a minus-2.7% CPOE on play-action passes. He is fifth in the league with a 64.4 QBR on non-play-action passes.

 

However, it seems that this is a one-year fluke. Garoppolo had a 67.0 QBR on play-action passes in 2021, higher than his 54.7 QBR on other passes.

 

Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks

Smith has not been good in the red zone this season, perhaps because he can’t take advantage of the speed of Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf when there are less than 20 yards to the end zone. Seattle ranks 22nd in team passing DVOA in the red zone, and Smith has a completion rate of just 55%. He has thrown 14 touchdowns in the red zone, but six of them have come right at the start of the red zone, between the opponent’s 17- and 20-yard lines. One good thing, however, is that Smith has yet to throw an interception inside the 20.

 

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Brady does not get pressured very often, but he has really struggled with pass pressure this season. Brady’s QBR of 65.2 without pressure ranks 15th among qualifying quarterbacks, but his QBR with pressure is just 9.1, which ranks 29th. What’s interesting is that Brady has struggled so much with pressure but not with blitzes. In fact, Brady currently has an 85.6 QBR against the blitz, which is the second highest in the league. So when Brady is pressured by the standard four pass-rushers he’s even worse, with a QBR of 6.8 and CPOE of minus-16.4%.

 

Taylor Heinicke, Washington Commanders

Heinicke’s biggest weakness is that his throws are off target. ESPN charting rates him as throwing off-target on 21.6% of passes, which is the worst rate for qualifying quarterbacks (tied with Houston’s Mills).