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NEW ENGLAND
Here’s a note –
SUPER BOWL TITLES WON, ACTIVE HEAD COACHES
Bill Belichick 6
All others combined 6
John Harbaugh, Bruce Arians, Pete Carroll, Sean Payton, Andy Reid and Mike Tomlin have one each.
We would think you could make a case for the Hall of Fame for each of the other six that aren’t Belichick (stretching a bit on Arians as head coach, but he has been a long time contributor)
Jeff Howe of The Athletic with a long look at how QB TOM BRADY and Coach BIll Belichick are circling back to a re-union on the NFL’s biggest stage:
Once a force together, leading the NFL’s greatest dynasty for two decades, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have positioned themselves to return to the Super Bowl, this time on different sidelines.
Belichick’s Patriots entered the week as the AFC’s No. 1 seed thanks to a league-best seven-game winning streak. Brady’s Buccaneers, the defending Super Bowl champions, are the NFC’s No. 2 seed with a conference-leading four-game winning streak.
If the Patriots and Bucs do happen to square off in Super Bowl LVI, they will have taken rare and unconventional paths to reach that destination, as their rosters were constructed in entirely different fashions. Both rebuilt on the fly, with Brady turning years of Tampa torment into immediate success and Belichick overhauling his group after a single down season.
Belichick orchestrated an unprecedented free-agent spending spree. The Patriots during the offseason were compared to the likes of the 2018 and 2019 Jets and 2021 Giants. Those teams all flopped and missed the playoffs after big offseason spending.
“That’s normally not been the Patriots’ approach, as we know,” said former Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff, who previously worked with both Belichick and Bucs general manager Jason Licht in New England. “With Bill’s incredible understanding of the game and building teams over the years, he realized there is a time and a place (to aggressively attack free agency). He believed in certain things and would do things a certain way up until that point where he knew that he needed to adjust. To me, that is genius-like in terms of team-builders. You have to be open-minded, and you have to be flexible. Even though you steadfastly believed in something over the years, when you are faced with a scenario that you need to regroup, step back and look at what’s best for the team, and you’re able to deviate from that plan, that takes a lot of courage, intelligence and insight.”
The Bucs, meanwhile, doubled down with their group and retained all 22 starters from the Super Bowl, bucking the notion that teams need to adapt to a new look before their opponents catch up.
“I have a great deal of respect for Jason Licht and (Bucs head coach) Bruce Arians and their approach,” Dimitroff said. “They both understood the importance of the ‘Not For Long’ league, and they understood how important it was to ignore the outside banter about why they weren’t getting rid of people and refreshing their roster. They knew exactly what they had there. They knew what they needed to do to grow within that organization with that roster. Personally, I think it takes a lot of guts to do that because it’s easy to give in to not only the fan base and the media but the ownership knocking on your door wondering if you’re doing the right thing. They stood by what they believed in. They are both very resolute as far as team-builders.”
QB comparison
It all starts, of course, at quarterback, and each team’s road map began with Brady.
Quick rehash: The Patriots offered Brady a two-year, $53 million contract in August 2019, but Brady turned it down because it wasn’t fully guaranteed. Brady instead agreed to a restructured deal that included an $8 million raise and the freedom to hit the market in March 2020. Brady then signed with the Bucs for two years and $50 million guaranteed, plus $9 million in incentives. He extended his deal last offseason through 2022 to alleviate the Bucs’ salary cap with three void years.
Brady’s arrival had a direct impact on the rest of Tampa Bay’s roster in 2020. Tight end Rob Gronkowski unretired and orchestrated a trade out of New England. Edge rusher Jason Pierre-Paul and defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh re-signed, and edge rusher Shaq Barrett didn’t put up a fight with the franchise tag. Brady’s presence was also a factor in the Bucs’ decision to use a first-round pick on outstanding offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs. Then during the season, the Buccaneers added wide receiver Antonio Brown and running back Leonard Fournette, just as they were able to do this season with cornerback Richard Sherman.
Having struck lightning with Brady, Licht wasn’t about to reinvent the wheel in 2021. They became the rare Super Bowl champion to return all 22 starters, thanks to some creative work with the salary cap and their free agents’ willingness to sacrifice money for a chance to repeat. They franchised receiver Chris Godwin and re-signed Gronkowski, Brown, Fournette, Barrett, Suh and linebacker Lavonte David.
Brady singlehandedly changed everything about the Buccaneers, who hadn’t been to the playoffs since 2007 and hadn’t won a postseason game since 2002. They’re 25-8 with Brady, including the Super Bowl run, and the 44-year-old has a chance to win his fourth MVP award and eighth Super Bowl.
Because Brady extended his contract, his $10.5 million cap hit isn’t much of a burden. It’s the third-highest on the Bucs, but just the 15th-highest among quarterbacks — nearly identical to the cap charges for Baker Mayfield and Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Meanwhile, the Patriots went the budget route in 2020. Cam Newton beat out Jarrett Stidham in a quick, one-sided QB competition in training camp but earned only $3.9 million in his lone season as the starter.
There was a dearth of talent around Newton, but his performance was also less than ideal. It’s why the Patriots assessed the cost to trade for every potentially available veteran quarterback in the league even after re-signing Newton. It’s also why they aggressively scouted the draft class and ultimately landed Mac Jones.
The Alabama product was better than Newton throughout the offseason by an undebatable margin. The Patriots released the former MVP in favor of Jones, who is a strong candidate to become the Offensive Rookie of the Year and has objectively had a better season than the quartet of quarterbacks who were picked before him.
Jones’ $2.8 million cap hit ranks 21st on the Patriots and 39th among all quarterbacks. That low number has granted the Patriots the advantage of overspending at other positions (which will be explained below).
“The Patriots had to do some things in order to get themselves to a higher level,” former Patriots offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia said. “They made a change at quarterback and they brought in a really good group of guys in free agency who have really improved the team.”
Despite Jones exceeding expectations so soon, there is some danger in starting a young QB. Notably, a rookie quarterback has never led his team to the Super Bowl.
Jones, who leads the No. 10 scoring offense in the league, will need to lean on that supporting cast to get a rematch with Brady. The Patriots defense has allowed the fewest points in the league, but they will almost certainly need to count on Jones to deliver in some high-intensity moments in order to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
Offseason splurges
The Patriots were armed with $68 million in cap space and executed a historic spending spree in free agency, doling out $351.6 million in total contract dollars, including $193.9 million guaranteed. A dozen of those players came from other teams, with those contracts totaling $261.525 million, including $146.25 million guaranteed.
They built up the roster a month before drafting Jones, solidifying major weak spots from their 7-9 season in 2020. The Patriots added tight ends Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry to finally fill Gronkowski’s void, added receivers Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor, reacquired right tackle Trent Brown and interior lineman Ted Karras, restocked the front seven with Matt Judon, Kyle Van Noy and Davon Godchaux, and added defensive back Jalen Mills. They also re-signed safety Devin McCourty, center David Andrews and defensive linemen Deatrich Wise and Lawrence Guy, among their flurry of moves.
Regardless of who would start at quarterback, the Patriots built their team to win with a strong running game and defense. They bought themselves enough time to either develop a rookie quarterback or surround Newton with the help that he lacked in 2020.
But there was some foreshadowing with these signings. Along with slot receiver Jakobi Meyers, the additions of Henry, Smith and Bourne, the passing game was structured to win over the middle of the field. That would require crisp decisions and precision throws which were strengths of Jones at Alabama, and he has since validated those attributes in New England.
More than half of the Patriots’ 53-man roster joined the team within the last two years, including 19 this season and 11 in 2020.
Conversely, the Bucs added 12 players this season and 13 in 2020. It’s not a huge difference in totality — 30 additions for the Patriots over two years as opposed to 25 for the Bucs — but the Patriots’ spike of 19 new players this season does stand out.
The Buccaneers took a markedly different approach with their spending spree. By re-signing Gronkowski, David, Barrett and Suh and extending Brady and left tackle Donovan Smith, the Bucs added contracts that pay a combined $87 million in average annual value, but they totaled only $28.5 million in cap hits for 2021.
That’s because the Bucs used voidable years, which will put $57.4 million in dead money after their contracts expire. The Buccaneers were willing to make another run at a Super Bowl now and worry about the future. It’s a sensible approach with Brady in control of the offense and 69-year-old Arians steering the ship.
“These guys really bonded last year,” Licht told The Athletic in September when asked why the Bucs took the unconventional approach of re-signing every starter. “And (Arians) is one of the best leaders as a head coach that I’ve ever been around. He’s very tough on them, but he is also very fair with them, with veterans especially. I just felt like they didn’t want to leave. Winning the Super Bowl helps, and everybody had a great time. It was just a special time last year with the bonding and getting closer than we normally would with the COVID situation and the building being cleared out except for football. I think the locker room played a huge part of it.”
Cap distribution
The Patriots are already reaping the rewards of employing a starting quarterback on a rookie contract. Let’s compare the positional salary cap allocation for each team (front sevens and defensive backfields were grouped together to avoid confusion over certain players’ use in sub-packages):
Quarterbacks:
Patriots: $4.6 million
Buccaneers: $13.5 million
Running backs:
Patriots: $6.8 million
Buccaneers: $7.7 million
Wide receivers:
Patriots: $17.6 million
Buccaneers: $30.5 million
Tight ends:
Patriots: $14.9 million
Buccaneers: $10.8 million
Offensive linemen:
Patriots: $28.8 million
Buccaneers: $32.5 million
Front seven:
Patriots: $50.1 million
Buccaneers: $52.4 million
Defensive backs:
Patriots: $39.8 million
Buccaneers: $16.4 million
The Buccaneers have understandably spent more at quarterback, but their greatest difference has been at receiver with Godwin on the franchise tag along with Mike Evans and Brown. Comparatively, the Patriots have a slight edge at tight end but an astronomical difference in the secondary.
Those factors yield an interesting subplot. The Bucs knew before the season their secondary could be vulnerable, and that position has since been exacerbated by injuries. That could turn into an intriguing matchup in a potential rematch.
On the flip side, the Bucs have three No. 1 receivers, but the Patriots spent a ton in the secondary. The teams have comparable front sevens, but the Patriots are ranked third in pass defense while the Bucs are 24th. That’s because the Pats have done a better job of marrying the pass rush with sound coverage.
In terms of similarities, each team stacked the trenches, which really shouldn’t be a surprise. It’s always been Belichick’s philosophy, and Licht worked for Belichick in New England for six years. The Patriots have devoted $43.7 million in cap space toward offensive linemen and tight ends. The Bucs have spent a nearly identical $43.3 million. Their front seven distribution is comparable, too, with the Patriots spending $50.1 million compared to the Bucs’ $52.4 million.
That’s no coincidence.
“We were raised understanding the importance of building from the inside out,” Dimitroff said. “That’s how we were raised in the Patriot paradigm. Come hell or high water, I felt like in New England, we always had a very adept offensive line with one of the best O-line coaches ever in Scarnecchia coaching the group. Then because Bill was so focused on the interior D-line, he always created something that was very special. Jason, by trade, understands that. It’s worth the money that they’ve put into it, in my mind.”
Recent draft contributions
Each team is solidly built through their veterans, but they wouldn’t be in contention without capable drafting in the early rounds. The Patriots’ last two classes have reversed a lull, as they’ve got rookies Jones, defensive tackle Christian Barmore and running back Rhamondre Stevenson along with second-year contributors like safety Kyle Dugger, edge rusher Josh Uche and offensive lineman Mike Onwenu. They’ve also had very good seasons from two more players on rookie contracts — left tackle Isaiah Wynn and running back Damien Harris.
The Bucs’ rookie class hasn’t had a chance to make much of a dent, but recent draftees such as Wirfs, safety Antoine Winfield Jr., linebacker Devin White, defensive tackle Vita Vea and cornerbacks Sean Murphy-Bunting, Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis have made up a portion of their young core.
Work on the horizon
With the way these rosters are constructed, it may appear the Buccaneers and Patriots will continue to contend for a Super Bowl well beyond this season. That may ultimately be true, too.
Brady’s presence in Tampa will ensure the Bucs maintain their aggressiveness, and the Belichick-Jones combination has the Patriots envisioning the third phase of their dynasty.
However, each team has yet another complicated offseason on the horizon. The Bucs’ impending free agents include Gronkowski, Godwin, Brown, Fournette, Pierre-Paul, Suh, Gholston, Davis, Sherman, center Ryan Jensen, right guard Alex Cappa, tight end O.J. Howard and safety Jordan Whitehead. They’ve got $33 million in projected cap space.
If it was unconventional to retain their starters this season, it would be unprecedented to do it again. Of course, as long as Brady is around, the Bucs will be a desirable destination for free agents.
The Patriots have $27 million in projected cap space next season, and their impending free agents include McCourty, Brown, Meyers, Karras, White, linebackers Jamie Collins, Dont’a Hightower and Ja’Whaun Bentley, cornerback J.C. Jackson and safety Adrian Phillips.
The Patriots had to spend a ton of money last offseason to round out the rest of their roster due to their unstable quarterback situation. Again armed with the No. 1 defense in the league and a long-term answer under center, Belichick’s ability to recruit free agents should be strong. Several admitted as much last spring, and defensive players around the league have certainly noticed the way Judon’s stock has soared in New England.
It’s conceivable Belichick and Brady will be in each other’s crosshairs on the Super Bowl stage. It may happen as soon as February. Since their split, they’ve taken very different paths to reach this point.
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