NFC NORTH

CHICAGO

The Bears are happy with DL MONTEZ SWEAT, despite the high cost of the midseason trade.  Courtney Cronin of ESPN.com:

Chicago Bears defensive line coach Travis Smith was walking through a Soldier Field tunnel following his team’s win over the Detroit Lions on Dec. 10. As Smith made his way toward a celebratory locker room, defensive end Montez Sweat ran up to his position coach to deliver news he’d waited years to be able to share.

Chicago’s defense had battered Lions quarterback Jared Goff all day, and it was Sweat’s third straight game with at least one sack. That brought his season total between the Washington Commanders and Chicago to 10, topping double digits for the first time in his career.

“That’s always been a goal of mine ever since I got in the league,” Sweat, the 26th overall pick in 2019, told ChicagoBears.com. “It’s a cool thing to have on your resume, but I mean, I want to be a generational guy. I always want to be a Pro Bowler, I want to be an All-Pro and eventually be a Hall of Fame guy.

“But, yeah, that’s a start.”

Smith also viewed it as just the beginning.

“I said screw double digits, now it’s your second contract,” Smith said. “The whole goal for us is a third contract.”

Sweat signed his second contract after the Bears acquired him in a trade-deadline deal on Oct. 31. They quickly extended him with a four-year, $98 million contract.

So far, Sweat has made good on the investment. In addition to his team-leading six sacks with the Bears (12.5 total), the edge rusher has 13 quarterback hits, forced a fumble and broke up three passes in seven games with Chicago.

“Keep stacking them,” Smith said. “You start getting to 20 pieces, that’s when you talk about — never putting a ceiling on a man — but when you start going 20 pieces, then you’re really talking about All-Pro, Hall of Fame, all that kind of stuff, which we don’t worry about right now.

“But why settle at double digits?”

The Bears gave up a second-round pick to acquire Sweat and change the trajectory of their defense. A struggling unit has become among the NFL’s most feared with 12 sacks, 30 quarterback hits, nine interceptions and 14.8 points allowed per game over Chicago’s past four games.

“I see him as a multiplier,” general manager Ryan Poles said after trading for Sweat. “He’s going to allow everyone to play better, our entire defensive front, our corners, our safeties.”

Sweat’s impact transcends his sack numbers. His 39 pressures rank fifth among all defenders while his 11 hurries and 12 knockdowns are the sixth and fifth, respectively.

Bears coach Matt Eberflus has dubbed Sweat’s impact as the ‘Tez Effect.’ His addition has changed how Eberflus is able to call the Bears defense.

“It allows you to play more coverage,” Eberflus said. “And then when you do pressure, it certainly adds that effect to it.”

Chicago’s pass rush struggled to generate pressure before Sweat’s arrival. Even with offseason additions like Yannick Ngakoue and DeMarcus Walker, something was missing up front.

And in the win over Detroit, Ngakoue suffered a broken ankle and was put on injured reserve. It was a disappointing season (4.0 sacks) by Ngakoue’s standards, but the potential of what Ngakoue and Sweat could produce together was evident.

“Yannick would collapse the pocket, ‘Tez would come around the corner,” defensive tackle Andrew Billings said. “If the quarterback avoided [Sweat], Yan was right there to clean up. If the quarterback avoided Yannick, Tez was right there to clean up.

“It’s really what elevated everybody. The addition of ‘Tez just made us a more cohesive unit.”

Sweat’s ability to quickly become a team leader was fueled by those who saw how his impact could affect all of their games.

“I think the biggest thing that us as a defense wanted to do was allow him to come in and be comfortable,” cornerback Jaylon Johnson said. “The biggest thing is just communicating with him outside of football, him coming in and being confident and comfortable around the guys, so when we go out there, it’s not like he’s in a locker room full of guys he doesn’t know.

“I feel like it’s hard to play the game like that when you, in a sense, feel alone. I feel like we did a good job welcoming him in and him feeling comfortable, allowing him to be able to talk, communicate with us so we’re all on the same page.”

Since Sweat’s arrival, Chicago has gone from 22nd to 11th in takeaways, 23rd to 12th in yards allowed and 28th to 21st in points allowed. The turnovers, sacks and ability to set the tone with his defense is a high mark for Eberflus, who gets to deploy his scheme to the fullest of its capabilities.

NFC SOUTH

NEW ORLEANS

T RYAN RAMCZYK has a knee problem that threatens his NFL career.  Katherine Terrell of ESPN.com:

New Orleans Saints right tackle Ryan Ramczyk said he has a cartilage defect in his knee that has cast uncertainty on his NFL future beyond the 2023 season.

The 29-year-old player, who missed the past two games with the knee injury, said he’s going to talk with doctors in the offseason to see whether there is anything that could fix the issues that have lingered for the past three seasons.

“I don’t know,” Ramczyk said about a possible fix. “I think those are the discussions we are going to have, that need to be had, and we’ll go from there. … I’ll talk with surgeons, doctors, get as much as information as I can and then just make the best decision.”

Ramczyk said that there is not a lot of cartilage left in the injured knee and that the wear and tear of playing in the NFL has taken its toll.

“This year it’s bugged me a little bit more than it has in the past,” he said. “At some point, I just couldn’t play anymore.”

Ramczyk said it was frustrating to have what he described as a “nagging problem,” especially after entering this season with optimism that he could manage the injury.

He did not miss a game to injury in his first four NFL seasons, but then missed seven games in 2021 due to his knee. He did not have surgery, and he controlled the problem with injections in the 2022 offseason. He played all of the 2022 season without much incident.

“Last year was good. … My knee was good. This offseason was good, I thought,” Ramczyk said.

The Saints have managed Ramczyk’s workload this season by giving him a rest day during every practice week. Pain management, however, has been an issue since Week 1.

“It really was Week 1 that my knee lit up,” Ramczyk said. “So, kind of dealing with it all year. … After that last [game], I think it was Carolina, I just couldn’t go anymore.”

He and the Saints are taking things week by week to see whether he could return for the season finale, or a playoff game, if the Saints make it to the postseason.

The 2017 first-round pick out of Wisconsin signed a five-year, $96 million extension in 2021 that made him the highest-paid right tackle in the league. He still has three years remaining on that deal.

“I feel like I’m not done yet. I feel like I still want to play,” Ramczyk said. “I feel like I’m still passionate about the game. When you think about it like that, my mind frame is, ‘I want to play, and I want to keep doing it, so what can I do to get better, to not have this happen in-season?'”

There will be significant salary cap implications for the Saints if Ramczyk retires. His cap number of $27 million will be the Saints’ second-highest number in 2024, and the team is projected to be significantly over the cap again. Releasing Ramczyk before June 1 would result in a $32 million dead money hit due to the prorated signing bonus amounts remaining on his deal.

When former Saints quarterback Drew Brees retired in 2021, the Saints lowered his salary to the veteran minimum, allowing them to spend in free agency and spread out his cap hit over two years. Ramczyk will enter the 2024 offseason with a base salary of $17 million — $6.5 million of which was guaranteed for injury, and that portion will become fully guaranteed on the third day of the 2024 league year.

AFC WEST

DENVER

Cody Benjamin of CBSSports.com thinks there would be a 2024 market for QB RUSSELL WILSON.

Barring a drastic turn of events, the marriage between the Broncos and Russell Wilson is effectively over after less than two full seasons. By benching the veteran quarterback ahead of Week 17, largely in an effort to avoid paying out potential injury guarantees in Wilson’s lucrative contract, the Broncos are broadcasting to the world they’re prepared to split with the ex-Seahawks star after 2023.

Was Wilson better this season than in 2022, his erratic Denver debut? Yes. Is he still under contract with the Broncos through 2028? Yes. But with the playoffs all but out of the picture following Week 16’s loss to the Patriots, the primary reason for Wilson’s demotion is the team’s preservation of a potentially seamless escape route; if Wilson plays and suffers an injury in the final two weeks of 2023, Denver won’t be able to outright release him, avoiding a $37 million payout he’s due in March.

In other words, Wilson’s release is all but inevitable. In fact, Wilson is expecting to be cut in March, according to The Athletic. The same scenario unfolded in the AFC West at the end of the 2022 season, when the Raiders demoted longtime starter Derek Carr in anticipation of an offseason breakup. And because Wilson’s contract dictates that Denver can’t save immediate salary-cap space by trading the QB before June 1, an outright release is the most likely outcome. Assuming that occurs, and Wilson becomes a free agent, here are some logical suitors:

7. Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield is exceeding expectations while guiding Tampa Bay to a likely playoff appearance, and both sides are reportedly interested in a new deal. But what if Mayfield’s camp is inclined to test the open market after settling for a one-year trial run last offseason? The Bucs won’t be picking early in the first round of the 2024 draft due to their NFC South title bid, and their offensive coordinator, Dave Canales, oversaw a big year from Wilson with the 2020 Seahawks.

6. Raiders

They swung and missed on a big-name veteran in Jimmy Garoppolo last offseason, and after two years of watching Wilson in the AFC West, they might not be overly eager to make him their own QB. But Aidan O’Connell isn’t likely to be crowned the starter of the future after 2023, and their resurgence under interim coach Antonio Pierce means they might not be in position to draft one of the top QB prospects in the spring.

5. Steelers

Coach Mike Tomlin has stood by 2022 first-rounder Kenny Pickett through two ugly, injury-riddled seasons, but after an especially sloppy 2023 season that saw him fire his OC and change backup QBs in the middle of a playoff race, it might finally be time for a bigger-name swing under center. Wilson has proven best at operating a run-heavy attack, and that’s precisely what the old-school Steelers seem to like.

4. Patriots

Pretty much everything we’ve come to know about how the Patriots operate could be out the window if the Bill Belichick era actually comes to an end. But Belichick’s tight-lipped regime would seemingly mesh well with Wilson’s business-first approach, and few clubs have been more desperate for proven QB production since Tom Brady’s exit in 2020. The biggest holdup: New England could have a shot at one of the top 2024 QB prospects in the draft.

3. Commanders

Ron Rivera and Co. are tracking toward an exit under Washington’s new ownership, so it’s unclear how a new regime might view Wilson as a short- and/or long-term option. But QB is a definite need after Sam Howell’s turnover-riddled debut as the full-time starter, especially with Howell now sidelined indefinitely in favor of Jacoby Brissett. Drafting one early feels far more likely. But Wilson has ties to the area; he grew up in Virginia, hours from the team’s facilities.

2. Giants

Wait, what? Yep, you read that right. New York just paid Daniel Jones big bucks last offseason, but he regressed in a big way before suffering a torn ACL amid a battered supporting cast. Tommy DeVito and Tyrod Taylor faring better in relief suggests Jones could be out of a job regardless of his rehab; he can be designated a post-June 1 release after the season without the Giants losing any money against the 2024 cap. And then there’s the Big Apple connection for Wilson: Before the longtime Seahawks star was dealt to Denver, the Giants’ current regime reportedly inquired about his availability.

1. Falcons

Atlanta hasn’t fielded a sustainable QB since Matt Ryan’s unceremonious exit, so regardless of Arthur Smith’s fate as head coach, they’ll be in the market. The Bears’ Justin Fields registers as a much more appealing possibility, considering his youth and upside, but Wilson could be the best alternative if they can’t move up to secure a top 2024 prospect. Again, he’s done some of his best work when captaining a run-first attack, and that’s exactly what Smith has been trying to cook up for the Falcons. From Wilson’s perspective, Atlanta also plays in perhaps the most winnable division in the NFL.

Charles Robinson of YahooSports.com on what Wilson lacks to play for Sean Payton:

It was early August in Englewood, Colorado, when I saw the first breadcrumb of frustration in Sean Payton’s offensive installation.

The sun was blazing, padded practices had begun to stack up for the Denver Broncos, and Payton looked pissed. Quarterback Russell Wilson and the offense had just broken their huddle, and the head coach stepped in between the offense and defense. Payton was too far away to hear, but his gesturing spoke volumes, sending the offense back to re-huddle, before breaking and moving swiftly to the line beneath his glare. Afterward, wideout Jerry Jeudy said there had been a recurring issue with speed. Payton wanted it all faster. Spit the play out faster, break the huddle faster, get to the line faster. If that was all done properly, it left Wilson standing at the line with an array of detailed calls and checks to execute. Put simply: Be fast and know what the hell you’re doing so the offense operated the way Payton designed it.

The entire offense.

“He’s making sure we’ve got our assignment and are playing fast and are doing everything we need to do,” Jeudy told Yahoo Sports after practice wrapped. “He’s making that the main focus on everything he does. If he doesn’t like a certain play, he’ll redo it and redo it until he likes it. If he doesn’t like how we run out of the huddle, we come back and do it again. It’s just perfection that he’s looking for in everything we’re doing.”

Perfection.

When you get past the very consequential matter of Wilson’s contract, “perfection” is the word that should resonated loudest in his benching Wednesday. From the day Payton was hired, his aim at quarterback was to achieve what he enjoyed for 15 years with Drew Brees. Namely, recreate a quarterback who knew the multitude of layers in his offense and who could recite them with speed and detail from the first page to the last. And most important, step out on gameday and operate every nuance of the scheme with the precision of the Vienna Philharmonic.

This is what he had in New Orleans with Brees, a player who was so maniacal in his film study and mastery of Payton’s system, new quarterbacks would come into the organization and get steamrolled in their positional meetings. In Brees’ mind, when you walked into that quarterbacks room you needed to know everything about the offense and keep up with that week’s installation. If you didn’t, you were getting left behind. It was a practice that was often so ruthless, former Saints quarterbacks coach Joe Lombardi held extra tutoring sessions with players without Brees in attendance so that he could teach at a more forgiving pace.

This is the kind of player Payton wants at quarterback. Someone who has the ability to know his offense on a molecular level — calls, checks, route concepts, blocking, schedule, construction of the plan, etc. — then the focus to carry it all out with the repetitive efficiency of a Xerox machine. This is how Kyle Shanahan wants his offense. It’s how Sean McVay wants his offense. And it’s definitely how Payton wants his offense. When a quarterback isn’t getting that job done in an overwhelmingly high percentile of his drops, the clock begins ticking on his tenure. It’s how Jared Goff became Matthew Stafford. It’s how Jimmy Garoppolo became Trey Lance and Lance became Brock Purdy. And now it’s how Russell Wilson will become someone else manning the controls in Denver.

None of this is to strictly blame Wilson in this whole Broncos mess. It’s to say he and Payton were a bad fit, arguably from the start. For the balance of his career, Wilson has been a player with a strong running game and high-level defense, complementing his ability to play a solid percentage of reactive football. But he’s not the same athlete he was in his mid-20s, and that has impacted his ability to successfully pull off second reaction plays. Instead, what Payton and Wilson critics have seen more recently is missed opportunities from a quarterback who isn’t seeing well beyond the defense in front of him.

And that’s where the breadcrumbs of frustration have come in.

Arguably the first sign of trouble for Wilson was Payton bringing backup Jarrett Stidham in on a two-year contract that raised some eyebrows, boosting him from a league-minimum salary of $965,000 to an annual average value of $5 million. That deal felt odd at the time, and the two-year duration was suggestive of wanting to have the option of starting Stidham at some point if Wilson was no longer viable in Payton’s eyes. Now that’s exactly where we are.

Then in September, the season kicked off with Payton talking about simplifying verbiage or having Wilson wear a wristband. Next came a multitude of games where Wilson often looked most comfortable operating in a two-minute offense that relied on only a small fraction of Payton’s playbook. Then there was the sideline blowup in Detroit, in which Payton screamed at Wilson in a manner that he knew would be captured by cameras and likely replayed and talked about incessantly. He’s been on TV, folks. He’s smart and knew exactly how that moment would play out.

And finally came this week, when Payton raised a significant late-December red flag, talking about the offense often running at an average or below-average level — and punctuating it again with talk about taking more out of the scheme to make it run more easily.

For Payton, this represents a ceiling for an offense that certainly hasn’t looked overly dynamic this season. An investigation into that reality has to start with two people: the head coach who designed the scheme and the quarterback who is running it. And Payton repeatedly pointed at his quarterback as the culprit over the course of the season.

That is why Wilson is on his way out of Denver. We can all talk about the problematic contract extension and how much Wilson is getting paid, but the truth is Wilson likely wouldn’t be starting in Denver next season even if he was making half of his scheduled paycheck. That’s how much Payton cares about his offense functioning like a square peg being utilized as a screwdriver.

So what does that mean in Denver? We can draw three conclusions.

First, Payton is effectively running the team. Moving on from Wilson starts with him, and that’s an immense sign that he’s dictating the roster moving forward. That raises the question about the future standing of general manager George Paton and whether Wilson is just the first in a two-pronged change. Cutting Wilson after this season could be done only with the stamp of approval from ownership, leaving us to see what part Paton played, if any, in the final decision.

Second, the next quarterback is going to be Payton’s selection, which puts him squarely into an intensifying spotlight. It’s one thing to look outward and say that it was a poor fit with a star quarterback he inherited. It’s a whole other problem when you hand pick the next quarterback and the offense continues to look dated or less effective than anything Payton accomplished in New Orleans with Brees.

Finally, this is now a fairly high-level rebuild ahead for the Broncos. Unless Stidham lights up the final two games in a way that thrusts him into the offseason as the presumed starter — which is hard to imagine and a dangerously small sample size — then Denver will be in the market for a quarterback this offseason. And what makes most sense is a rookie he can mold from Day 1, or a cheap veteran he has a shared history with. Either route, it’s a quarterback reboot and some roster retooling.

Four months ago, all of this would have looked from afar like a worst-case scenario for Payton’s start. Missing the postseason, casting off Wilson by the end of the season, thrusting the franchise into the awkwardness of people wondering about the GM’s future — that’s a lot of carnage and drama in a short period of time.

But Sean Payton went into this with his eyes open. He chose the Broncos as much as the Broncos chose him. And this might have been his plan all along, clear as the trail of breadcrumbs that started long ago and ended Wednesday.

Nick Kosmider of The Athletic on what the Broncos might do at QB in 2024:

After spending the bulk of his Wednesday meeting with reporters explaining the benching of Russell Wilson as a win-now move, Broncos coach Sean Payton revealed another motivation behind making Jarrett Stidham the team’s new starting quarterback.

“To get a true evaluation and to see what he can do, he needs to play,” Payton said.

In other words, the Broncos have already begun the work of examining their 2024 options at quarterback, a topic that will dominate the offseason. Payton believes Stidham can be one of those options for many reasons, some of which he delved into Wednesday.

“He’s someone who has really good poise,” the coach said. “He has really good feet. You see his arm strength and decision-making.”

Another key component that could work in Stidham’s favor? He’ll come cheap.

If the Broncos, as expected, cut Wilson early next year without any restructuring of his contract, the team will be saddled with an $85 million dead-money hit. For context, the record for dead money a team has absorbed for one player is the $40.5 million the Atlanta Falcons ate when they traded veteran quarterback Matt Ryan to the Indianapolis Colts in 2022. This would be more than double that total. Yes, the Broncos could spread the money over two seasons with a post-June 1 designation — $35.4 million in 2024 and $49.6 million in 2025 — but it is nonetheless a significant financial hurdle they will have to navigate as they rebuild the quarterback room and reshape the roster in general.

The Broncos are already $21 million over next season’s salary cap, according to Spotrac. They could get under the cap with restructures and veteran cuts, but they almost certainly won’t be able to replicate the massive free-agent spending spree they had in March. The salary cap can be navigated with creative accounting in the NFL, but dead money is a formidable challenge that will require concessions with the roster as Denver searches for a new quarterback.

So where does that leave the Broncos in terms of options?

Stidham is under contract next season for the Broncos and is scheduled to count $7 million against the cap. If Payton determines the 27-year-old fifth-year pro is ready to be a full-time starter for the first time, his low figure would make Wilson’s dead-money charge in 2024 palatable for Denver. That’s what makes the upcoming two games — Sunday against the Chargers and Week 18 at the Raiders — such a pivotal audition for the Broncos. He would be a bargain as a starter in 2024, but that will only happen if Payton believes Stidham can elevate an offense that ranks 20th or worse in yards per play (5.0), red zone efficiency (50.9 percent) and third-down rate (36.6 percent).

One benefit Stidham will have in his bid to become next year’s starter is a familiarity with Payton’s complex offense. He hasn’t seen the field outside of mop-up duty in Detroit in Week 15, but he’s absorbed the playbook and would theoretically enter the offseason with a good foundational understanding of how Payton wants to operate.

But regardless of how these final two games unfold — it is, after all, only two games — the Broncos will certainly be searching for other options at quarterback this offseason. One possibility that jumps out given his past connection with Payton is Jameis Winston, who was with the coach for two seasons in New Orleans. In 2021, Winston replaced retired Drew Brees as the starting quarterback for the Saints. In seven starts, he threw 14 touchdowns against three interceptions and led the Saints to a 5-2 record. He suffered a torn ACL and MCL in Week 8 that ended his season, and Payton stepped into a brief retirement after the season.

Winston played on a one-year, $12 million contract in 2021. He then signed a two-year, $28 million extension ahead of the 2022 season and started the first three games that year before landing on injured reserve with a back injury. Andy Dalton became the team’s starter in Winston’s absence and kept the job when Winston returned. Winston restructured his deal last offseason and stayed in New Orleans on a one-year, $8 million contract to be the backup to Derek Carr. Winston, who turns 30 next month, could probably command a similar salary this offseason as a priority backup or quarterback who is competing for a starting job in camp. Put another way, he’d be on a similar deal to Stidham and the guarantees would likely be low or incentive-based.

There are other free-agent options of varying cost, accomplishment and potential fit. At the top of the list is Kirk Cousins, who will be an unrestricted free agent after spending the past six seasons with the Minnesota Vikings. Cousins, who is 35 and suffered an Achilles tear in Week 8, signed a one-year, $35 million contract last offseason to remain with the Vikings. He was having a Pro Bowl-caliber season before the injury — 2,331 yards with 18 touchdowns and five interceptions in eight starts — and will have no shortage of suitors when the offseason begins. They all will have far more cap space available than the Broncos. Cousins would seem to be the perfect fit as a rhythm pocket passer who can spray the ball around the field, but the cost would likely be prohibitive given the Wilson money the Broncos must account for the next two seasons.

Even Ryan Tannehill or Baker Mayfield, the other quarterbacks at the top of the free-agent class, could be outside the Broncos’ price range. More economical options include Gardner Minshew, Sam Darnold and Jacoby Brissett, all of whom are playing on one-year deals this season of $8 million or less.

But the best chance for the Broncos to navigate their salary issues while also elevating the play at quarterback is to hit on a prospect in the draft. For the first time since 2021, when they drafted cornerback Pat Surtain II ninth, the Broncos own a first-round pick. Where they’ll select will depend on how they fare in the next two games, but they will be in a position to select a quarterback. The top prospects, Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, will be out of range. Jayden Daniels, the Heisman Trophy winner out of LSU, could fit in that same category. But might J.J. McCarthy of Michigan, Bo Nix of Oregon or Michael Penix Jr. of Washington work their way into first-round consideration as the pre-draft process kicks into high gear?

The Broncos don’t have a second-round pick, so if they don’t take a quarterback in the first round, they are likely looking at adding a more developmental, long-term prospect at the position. A player like that — Michael Pratt of Tulane, perhaps — could learn the offense for a season or two behind Stidham or another veteran starter. But it’s important to note that Payton’s experience working with rookie quarterbacks is limited. He started only veterans in New Orleans, with Winston and Teddy Bridgewater serving as fill-ins or replacements for Brees. It doesn’t mean he can’t push a rookie into a starting role in 2024, but it would go against his extensive history with the position.

“That system, because I’ve been in it, is a very difficult system to learn; it takes multiple years,” former NFL quarterback Chase Daniel, who was a backup in New Orleans under Payton for four seasons, said on a recent episode of The Athletic’s “In The Pocket” podcast. “I just don’t see a rookie coming in. Sean doesn’t mess with rookie quarterbacks. Tell me the last rookie quarterback Sean’s had. … That’s another thing that a lot of people don’t understand. I just don’t know that they are going to find and start (a rookie) if they find one in the first round. It’s got to be some kind of cheap veteran.”

An ideal scenario for the Broncos would be to have Stidham become a starter and play well on the last year of his deal in 2024, all while the Broncos developed a quarterback they selected somewhere in the draft who could take over in 2025. In that situation, the finances would work without the Broncos having to offload tons of salary to account for the significant dead money on the books. For the Broncos to make the most out of a messy situation with Wilson, the cheap options must yield premium results.

LAS VEGAS

Adam LaRose of ProFootballRumors on the growth of the candidacy of Antonio Pierce for the full-time Raiders gig:

The Raiders are one of three teams which are guaranteed to conduct head coach searches this offseason, but the team’s play of late has likely played a factor in that process. Interim HC Antonio Pierce has guided the team to a 4-3 record since taking over and in doing so has helped his cause for earning the full-time gig.

Upon taking over from Josh McDaniels midseason, Pierce took on a much larger workload than he had previously experienced at the NFL level. His 2022 posting as Las Vegas’ linebackers coach was his first in the pros, giving him a thin resume with respect to a number of the other coaching candidates likely to be interviewed for the position. For that reason, it came as little surprise when a recent report indicated interim general manager Champ Kelly was the likelier of the two to have the interim tag removed.

However, ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano note Pierce has strengthened his case to get the nod for 2024 and beyond. The team’s fourth win on his watch – a Christmas Day upset of the Chiefs – has them in contention for both the AFC West title and a wild-card berth with two weeks remaining in the season. The path to a playoff spot of any kind is narrow, but the fact the Raiders are still in contention is a dramatic turnaround from where things stood with McDaniels in place.

Pierce’s audition period has seen the team play with increased levels of discipline and physicality, something the ESPN report notes has “impressed” owner Mark Davis. The latter was in a similar position when Rich Bisaccia took over for Jon Gruden in 2021, but his relatively strong run was not sufficient to land him the permanent posting. Davis has since come to regret the decision to replace Bisaccia with McDaniels, but the current situation represents an opportunity to avoid a repeat of that perceived mistake.

Early reports in the aftermath of Pierce taking charge pointed to Davis being impressed with the improvement from the McDaniels regime. The Raiders have allowed more than 21 points in a game only once since the change was made, and a strong defensive showing will be needed to keep the team’s postseason chances alive. Regardless of if Vegas manages to secure a playoff berth or not, Pierce’s stock has certainly risen in recent weeks.

Much will depend on the team’s finish to the season, one in which Pierce has brought in a number of experienced staffers to help him in his (as of now) temporary assignment. The Raiders will likely have their new general manager in place early in the offseason to assist in the process of hiring a full-time head coach, something which still needs to satisfy the Rooney Rule. As things currently stand, though, that endeavor could very well result in Pierce being handed the reins on a permanent basis.

AFC NORTH

CINCINNATI

It looks like the Bengals will have WR Ja’MARR CHASE on Sunday – and he’s not impressed by the Chiefs defense.  Bryan DeArdo of CBSSports.com:

The Cincinnati Bengals may be getting a big part of their offense back for Sunday’s Week 17 showdown against the Kansas City Chiefs. Pro Bowl wideout Ja’Marr Chase returned to practice as a limited participant on Thursday for the first time since injuring his shoulder during Cincinnati’s Week 15 win over the Minnesota Vikings.

Chase did not practice all last week and was held out of Cincinnati’s Week 16 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. He did not practice on Wednesday, which isn’t abnormal for players dealing with injuries. Chase practicing on Thursday, however, was no small thing as it was his first practice participation in nearly two weeks.

The return of Chase on Sunday would be huge for a Bengals offense that clearly missed him during last Saturday’s 34-11 loss to the Steelers. Chase has 93 catches for 1,156 yards and seven touchdowns in 14 games this season. He has five games of over 100 receiving yards, including his 192-yard performance in Cincinnati’s win over Arizona on Oct. 8. In that same game, Chase caught 15 passes to break Carl Pickens’ 25-year-old franchise record for the most receptions in a game.

After practice Thursday, Chase was asked what stands out about Kansas City’s secondary ahead of the contest. He provided a little bit of bulletin-board material with his answer.

“If I’m being honest, nothing,” Chase said, via “Jungle Roar Pod.” “They just know how to play us, they know the leverages, they know what splits we in, they just know what we gonna do certain movements. They throw little double-doubles at us to stop the two best players on the outside, and that’s all they do. It’s not really like they got a Jalen Ramsey on their squad. So, not much.”

That opened the door for an interesting back-and-forth with reporters, in which Chase did not back down.

“They can take it how they want. I don’t care. … I’m not Ironman,” Chase said. “I can’t throw the ball to myself. It’s a team sport.” 

The Bengals received more positive injury news earlier in the week when the team opened the practice window for starting cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt. Taylor-Britt, who was placed on injured reserve on Dec. 4 with an ankle injury, started the week as a full practice participant.

While slim, the Bengals still have a chance at making the playoffs for a third straight year. To do that, though, they’ll most likely have to defeat the Chiefs and Browns in the regular season’s final two weeks and will also need the Colts, Texans and Steelers to lose at least once. Fortunately for the Bengals, either the Colts or Texans will lose another game as the two teams face each other in Week 18.

CLEVELAND

It could be the most amazing note of 2023 – with their win over the Jets, not only are the Browns going to the playoffs, they will win more games than their rival Steelers for the first time in 34 years.

Here’s what the then-AFC Central looked like in 1989:

AFC CENTRAL          W         L          T

Cleveland Browns      9           6          1

Tennessee Titans      9           7          0

Pittsburgh Steelers    9           7          0

Cincinnati Bengals     8           8          0

The DB had been thinking that the Browns were a nice story, that they would be a super dangerous 5 seed going on the road as a substantial favorite at the AFC South winner.  Michael David Smith opens our eyes to an unlikely, but doable, grander ambition:

The Browns clinched a playoff berth with Thursday night’s win over the Jets, but their regular season could end with a much bigger prize: The No. 1 seed, a bye week and home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.

Cleveland is one of three AFC teams, along with Baltimore and Miami, that still has a chance at the No. 1 seed.

The Browns’ path to the top seed in the AFC is fairly simple:

First, the Dolphins must beat the Ravens on Sunday. If the Ravens win or tie, the Ravens are the AFC No. 1 seed.

Then in Week 18, the Browns have to beat the Bengals, the Dolphins have to lose to the Bills and the Ravens have to lose to the Steelers.

If that’s how it plays out, the Browns, Ravens and Dolphins will end up in a three-way tie atop the AFC at 12-5. The Browns will win the division record tiebreaker over the Ravens, and the conference record tiebreaker over the Dolphins.

Is it likely? No. But it’s still possible. And no one could have predicted before this season that a Joe Flacco-led Browns team would be in contention for the No. 1 seed in the AFC with one game left in the season. It’s been a wild year in Cleveland.

– – –

Chris Branch of The Athletic with some numbers on QB JOE FLACCO:

At this point, I’d believe anything you told me about Joe Flacco. Possible truths:

Is he, after sitting at home with his kids for the first three months of the season, December’s best quarterback at nearly 39 years old? Sure.

Is this some malfunction of the human simulation, in which a coding error led us to an alternate reality? Extremely possible.

And does Flacco have a chance to win the Super Bowl this year? Maybe even Super Bowl MVP?? Why not!

Nothing’s real, and everything is also real at the same time. Consider Flacco in the Browns’ 37-20 beatdown of the Jets, his most recent former team, last night:

Despite missing top receiver Amari Cooper, the QB who was signed 38 days prior went 16-of-22 for 296 yards and three touchdowns in the first half.

He finished with 309 yards, giving him four 300-yard games this year. That’s good for sixth-most in the NFL this season, tied with guys like Dak Prescott and Josh Allen. Flacco has played five games. He even has a shot at his first 2,000-yard season since 2018.

AFC SOUTH

HOUSTON

QB C.J. STROUD is through the protocol and ready to start Sunday against the Titans.  D.J. Bien-Amie of ESPN.com:

Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has cleared concussion protocol and plans to start for the Houston Texans against the Tennessee Titans in Week 17.

It will be Stroud’s first start since suffering a concussion in the fourth quarter of Houston’s Week 14 loss to the New York Jets. The No. 2 overall pick in this year’s draft didn’t practice or play for two weeks.

The Texans went 1-1 in Stroud’s absence, beating the Titans in Week 15 and losing to the Cleveland Browns last Sunday.

Case Keenum started in place of Stroud and threw one touchdown with three interceptions. Davis Mills replaced Keenum in the fourth quarter against the Browns and had two touchdown passes.

Stroud practiced Wednesday for the first time since the injury, as he was in phase four of the protocol, according to coach DeMeco Ryans. Stroud ran with the first-team offense and was listed as limited on the injury report. He was a full participant Thursday.

“It was great being back,” Stroud said Thursday. “I missed it. This is just kind of something that I guess God wanted me to go through. It was tough. It wasn’t easy. But my teammates held it down as best as they could and I appreciate them for that. I’m back and happy to be here.”

Before the injury, Stroud was leading the league in passing yards (3,631) and had 20 TD passes to five interceptions. The offense with Stroud ranked 10th in scoring (23.8 points per game) and sixth in yards (373.1). Without him, it averaged 17 points and 295 yards.

Stroud returns at a crucial point in the season for the Texans, who are in a three-way tie at 8-7 with the Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC South. The Texans are also the No. 8 seed in the AFC.

“We got to appreciate the work that we put in, but at the same time, just get one at a time and keep building for hopefully making the playoffs,” Stroud said. “That’s definitely the goal, and just go from there. We got to start with Tennessee, which is a really hard challenge.”

AFC EAST

MIAMI

The Dolphins will not have WR JAYLEN WADDLE for Sunday in Baltimore if the source of Adam Schefter is to be believed:

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, who is nursing a high ankle sprain, is not expected to play Sunday at the Baltimore Ravens, a source told ESPN’s Adam Schefter on Thursday.

Waddle sustained the injury in Sunday’s victory over the Dallas Cowboys.

Waddle caught a 50-yard pass from quarterback Tua Tagovailoa on the Dolphins’ first offensive drive of Sunday’s game, but eye and ankle injuries limited him to just 28 snaps. The catch gave him 1,014 receiving yards for the season — his third straight 1,000-yard season to begin his career.

He is the first player in franchise history to record three consecutive seasons with 1,000 receiving yards.

With Waddle out, the Dolphins will likely turn to their third-leading receiver at the position, Cedrick Wilson Jr., to step into his role. Braxton Berrios, River Cracraft or midseason acquisition Chase Claypool could also see elevated roles Sunday.

Waddle and Tyreek Hill (1,641 yards) are by far the team’s leading receivers. No other player has more than 245 receiving yards this season. Despite the drop in productivity, Miami’s coaching staff has cross-trained players at multiple positions since offseason practices for this exact scenario.

“We try to make sure that we always are moving guys around and getting guys work with things so we all can be connected for the time that we’re going to have to show up and do what’s required for Sunday,” offensive coordinator Frank Smith said. “So again, we have contingencies to work through so we can make sure that we’re putting our guys in the best position possible.”

The Dolphins clinched their second straight playoff berth with Sunday’s win but would capture their first AFC East title since 2008 with a victory over the Ravens in Week 17 along with a Bills loss to the New England Patriots. If they win out, the Dolphins will be the top overall seed in the AFC.

The Ravens will clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC if they defeat the Dolphins on Sunday.

It’s the biggest game of the year in the AFC.

The NFL has unprecedented flexing power.

And Miami at Baltimore is a CBS Sunday regional, without Jim Nantz and Tony Romo in the building.

Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald tracked down these reasons for the games stationary network status:

Sunday’s Dolphins-at-Baltimore game might be the most important game in the AFC this season, with both teams controlling their path to the conference’s No. 1 seed.

But instead of being broadcast to a national audience in prime time or airing in most of the country late in the afternoon, Dolphins-Ravens will be packed into a crowded five-game 1 p.m. window on CBS.

The network is planning to send the game to as much of the country as possible within the constraints of needing to air four other games at the same time. As of Tuesday afternoon, Dolphins-Ravens was slated to go to 70 percent of the nation’s homes with television sets. (I will post regionalization maps on X — @flasportsbuzz — when they become available on Wednesday).

So why did the NFL keep the Dolphins game at 1 p.m?

Here were the explanations offered or confirmed by multiple network sources:

1). The NFL’s mission with flex scheduling isn’t to replace decent games with great games. It’s to get out of airing bad games in prime time.

And Vikings-Packers, the scheduled NBC New Year’s Eve game, was deemed to be meaningful because both teams have a chance to make the playoffs. Green Bay and Minnesota are among four 7-8 teams trying to overtake the 8-7 Rams and 8-7 Seahawks for the final two wild card spots. The winner of the Packers-Vikings game has a decent chance to make the playoffs; the loser almost assuredly won’t make the playoffs. As soon as the NFL determined that game was significant, there wasn’t extended consideration given to replacing it with a different game.

2). The NFL set in stone the Dec. 31 schedule on Dec. 21, five days before it was required. Why didn’t the NFL wait to see the results of the games this past weekend before determining Dec. 31 game times?

The league was sensitive to giving fans (those planning to attend Sunday night’s Packers game in Minneapolis and elsewhere) and team employees and networks more time to prepare for games on Dec. 31 without last minute changes. It’s one thing to set a mid-January game date and time a few days in advance, which will be the case for Week 18 games and playoff games. But locking in the time of New Year’s Eve games, more than six days in advance, was viewed as an act of consideration by the league to its fans, teams and broadcast partners.

3). Beyond the NFL viewing the Packers-Vikings game as worth keeping on Sunday Night Football, the league also took into account the fact that the Ravens have been on prime time the past two weeks (on a Sunday night against Jacksonville and a Monday night against San Francisco). There wasn’t a great appetite to air the same team in prime time three consecutive weeks, regardless of the team.

4). As for why the NFL didn’t flip the start times of Dolphins-Ravens at 1 p.m. and Kansas City-Cincinnati at 4:25 p.m. — considering CBS has both games — a few reasons were given: The popularity of the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes and the fact the Bengals (8-7) have remained in playoff contention even without injured quarterback Joe Burrow. One network source said in a strange way, the Chiefs have become an even more fascinating television draw because they’ve proven to be vulnerable this season and aren’t running away with the top seed. (They’re on course to likely be the third seed.)

CBS lead team Jim Nantz and Tony Romo will call the Chiefs-Bengals game, which will be televised in most of the country. (Some will get the Broncos-Chargers game instead.) CBS’ No. 2 team, Ian Eagle and Charles Davis, will work Dolphins-Ravens.

There was more flexibility for the NFL to flex games this season than ever before, but only one game ended up being moved out of prime time this year: ESPN’s Chiefs-Patriots game was replaced by Eagles-Seahawks, during the first season that ESPN received a flexing option. The league, not the networks, determine what games will be flexed, but CBS and Fox can protect a game each week.

THIS AND THAT

RECENT QB CLASSES

The 2021 and 2022 QB classes have been underwhelming says Scott Kacsmar:

Every season seems to come with the caveat that “next year’s quarterback class is better” but what if there are two bad ones in a row?

The 2020 draft has pulled off the rare feat of having four hits (Burrow, Tua, Herbert, and Hurts), and Jordan Love hasn’t been too bad so far in Green Bay.  But the 2021 and 2022 draft classes have been underwhelming, to say the least, and NFL history shows that if a quarterback is going to work out as a franchise player, they often show it in their first or second season. Not many third-year bloomers, like Josh Allen in Buffalo, exist, and going four years or longer is even more unusual.

Trevor Lawrence may be the best example of why the 2021 draft is disappointing so far. He was considered one of the best prospects ever, had a bad rookie year under Urban Meyer, turned things around under Doug Pederson last year, then won a playoff game only after he fell into a 27-0 hole to the Chargers after he threw four early interceptions.

That game was shaky, but expectations were higher this year with Calvin Ridley joining the receiving corps. But the results just haven’t been there. Lawrence hasn’t made that leap, statistically, and the Jaguars are on a 4-game losing streak and in danger of blowing a division title. Injuries have been piling up for Lawrence too, and while he continues to never miss a start, he may want to consider taking a seat until he can stop turning the ball over and play better.

Still, at least Lawrence is playing and has a good game from time to time. The No. 2 (Zach Wilson) and No. 3 (Trey Lance) picks in that draft are proven busts at this point.

Justin Fields has developed a solid connection with D.J. Moore in Chicago this year, but the offense is still underwhelming. Fields threw 8 touchdowns against Denver and Washington earlier this year and has 7 touchdown passes in his other 9 games combined. Just goes to show what it’s like when you face a team that allowed 70 points in Miami and the No. 32 scoring defense from Washington. Fields has been less dynamic as a runner this year too, so the Bears may need to decide if they want to use their great draft capital to move on to a quarterback like USC’s Caleb Williams in the 2024 draft.

While Fields is 3-15 (.167) at game-winning drive opportunities in his career, the lowest active quarterback (min. 10 games) is also from the 2021 draft class.

Mac Jones is just 2-13 (.133) at game-winning drives in New England, and while it has not always been his fault there, he gives the team no edge in the close games they used to win with Brady at quarterback. Bill Belichick has benched Jones multiple times this year before finally going with Bailey Zappe as his starter, which has led to some upset wins in Pittsburgh and Denver. But quarterback play has been a huge culprit in holding the Patriots back, and they are likely going to have to move on with someone new in 2024. It also likely won’t be with Belichick coming back to coach them.

Kenny Pickett was the first quarterback drafted in 2022 with the No. 20 pick, which should have raised some red flags by itself. It is not controversial to think he never got drafted that high by Pittsburgh if he went to a different college than Pitt, but the Steelers believe in tradition and didn’t want to pass up hometown hero Dan Marino again as they did in 1983.

But Pickett is no Dan Marino. He’s closer to Dan McGwire of the Seahawks. While Pickett has received every excuse from the incompetence of fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada to the immaturity of his receivers, the fact is he doesn’t play aggressively and has the lowest passing touchdown rate (1.8%) in NFL history for anyone with at least 700 pass attempts.

When fans are chanting for third-string quarterback Mason Rudolph, you know you have issues. Pickett has also left 5-of-25 games injured in his career, so durability appears to be an issue. He’s led some clutch drives to win games, but the Steelers need a lot more production than this out of the quarterback position if they are ever going to stay competitive in the AFC with its deep quarterback pool. By competitive, we mean advancing in the playoffs. Not just finishing 9-8 to avoid a losing record.

Desmond Ridder was given his shot to go into this season as Atlanta’s No. 1 quarterback, but he has been benched multiple times for Taylor Henicke. Ridder has shown a little fourth-quarter moxie that sets him apart from Jones and Fields, but he also has committed some awful turnovers that cost his team games, including the interception in Carolina that was the last straw for him. We’ll see if Arthur Smith goes back to him, but we’re also not sure if Smith survives to return for 2024 himself. He has not used his offensive talent properly down there.

The 2022 draft is so amusing right now as Brock Purdy looks like the steal of the draft as the final pick, but what would we think of Sam Howell had he gone to the 49ers instead of the Commanders in the fifth round? Howell has flashed some ability this year, but that better be the case when he spent most of the year leading the league in pass attempts. Now he only leads in sacks taken (60) and interceptions thrown (17). Howell has been benched the last two weeks for Jacoby Brissett, who immediately moved the offense for multiple touchdowns. The Howell experiment may be over, but it was always risky to give an unheralded fifth-round pick the job like this to start a season.

BROADCAST NEWS

The NFL has said its not going to play on Wednesday, December 25.  Mike Florio says why not, here’s how you could do it.

The NFL says it won’t schedule games on Christmas when December 25 lands on a Tuesday or Wednesday. The 29-percent spike in viewership from Christmas 2022 to Christmas 2023 should prompt the league to change its mind.

If that doesn’t happen, the owners aren’t who we thought they were.

The league presumably has resisted the idea of playing games when Christmas lands on a Tuesday or Wednesday because it creates scheduling issues. Those issues could be easily resolved, however.

Next year, Christmas falls on the Wednesday between Week 16 and Week 17. The easiest way to make three Wednesday games work would be to give the six teams the prior weekend off, making the Wednesday games their Week 17 contests.

They’d play on Sunday, December 15. They’d play again on Wednesday, December 25. They’d finish their regular seasons on Sunday, January 4.

Yes, Week 16 is a late occasion for a bye. (Six teams off also could wreak havoc on fantasy playoffs, not that the NFL would care.) From 1999 through 2001, however, one team had its bye every week of the season, since there were only 31 franchises. Teams had early byes, teams had late byes. And the NFL kept going.

Another possibility would be to have the six teams set to play on December 25 play their Week 16 games on Saturday, December 21. The Saturday-to-Wednesday turnaround is no different than the weekly Sunday-to-Thursday formula. Those six teams would play a tripleheader on Saturday, against a different opponent than the opponent they’ll face the following Wednesday.

There are surely other ways to make it happen. Those are two fairly obvious ways to make it work. It’s unclear from the labor deal whether union consent would be needed to whatever approach the NFL would take.

Then there’s Christmas Eve 2024. Tuesday night. That one is even easier. Week 16 would be extended by a day, and the two teams that play on Tuesday night would play their Week 17 game the following Monday, possibly in a doubleheader that includes the two teams that would play on Monday night, December 23.

Or the league could just expect the two teams that play on Tuesday night to be ready to go the following Sunday.

Here’s the bottom line. It’s not all that hard to drop games on Tuesdays or Wednesdays, if the league really wants to do it. Since the NFL claims as to Thursday games that the injury rate is no higher with four days between games than it is with seven days off — and given that the league now requires some teams to play two short-week games per year — they can easily figure out a way to play three games on Christmas (and one on Christmas Eve) when the holiday lands on a Wednesday. If they want to.

This year’s viewership should make them want to.