AROUND THE NFL
Daily Briefing
NFC NORTH
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CHICAGO
Coach Matt Nagy believes that his team craves tough coaching. Mark Potash of the Chicago Sun-Times:
Two days after coach Matt Nagy criticized his defense for a shoddy performance in a 41-25 loss to the Packers, no defensive players were available to the media Wednesday for the first time this season.
Was it a sign of discontent? A boycott in response to Nagy throwing them under the bus after they’ve propped up Nagy’s sagging offense for three seasons? Are they mad? Are they insulted? Is the culture finally breaking down? Stop the presses!
None of the above, actually. Nagy’s criticism didn’t come off well, but nothing really does when a team has lost five consecutive games. He could have handled the critique a little more artfully — maybe taken his offense to task first before admonishing the defense. And for the record, he did acknowledge that the defensive breakdown was uncharacteristic: “They’ve done a hell of a job all year long.”
But poor Nagy has reached the point where he can’t do anything right. All the criticism of him is absolutely fair. His offense is a mess. His quarterbacks can’t do anything about it. He has changed play-callers. He has changed quarterbacks again. He’s playing Cole Kmet more. And the offense keeps going nowhere. There are five games remaining and nothing left to say. He’s out of answers. But he still has to provide them.
All Nagy has left at this point is his cherished culture to keep this thing afloat and hope an easier schedule allows his once 5-1 team to regain some traction. And it’s that culture that allows him to say what he said Monday without worry that it will fracture the bond he built at Halas Hall. If he offended his defense, he didn’t hear any blowback from his players.
“No. Not at all,” Nagy said Wednesday after practice. “The relationship I have with these guys on defense — I’m extremely close with every single one of those guys. As a matter of fact, a lot of my discussion with [the media Monday], that’s really coming from them, too. They’re frustrated. They were angry and they know they can play better and they understand that. So it’s kind of all of us talking when I say that.”
And they say they didn’t quit on defense, that they are/were just bad and outclassed. Patrick Finley of the Chicago Sun-Times:
As the Packers celebrated running back Jamaal Williams’ 13-yard touchdown and a 41-10 lead over the Bears late in the third quarter Sunday night, NBC analyst Tony Dungy broke down the replay with a rare critical comment.
“This is just poor tackling,” said Dungy, a Pro Football Hall of Fame coach who was filling in on the broadcast. “This is the Bears’ defense basically giving up here.”
Coordinator Chuck Pagano — like Dungy, a former Colts head coach — hadn’t heard about the burn before he was told of it Thursday.
“Our guys never give up,” Pagano said. “I’ll fight anybody tooth and nail on that.
“And I love Tony. I have great respect for Tony. But I don’t pay attention to any of that stuff. Our guys don’t ever quit. They would never give up.”
Safety Eddie Jackson also disagreed with Dungy’s assertion.
“We’re still fighting,” he said. “It may look like [giving up], if a guy’s frustrated or whatever, because of the game. But we never quit or give up.”
It’s now up to the defense to prove it — with actions, not words — on Sunday against the Lions.
Told of Dungy’s comments minutes after the Packers game, Bears coach Matt Nagy said he didn’t question his players’ effort. But the subject of effort matters. It’s usually the first sign a coach has lost the attention of his team. And chairman George McCaskey is examining the Bears’ culture — and the fates of Nagy and general manager Ryan Pace — over the final five weeks of the season.
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MINNESOTA
Is WR JUSTIN JEFFERSON having the best rookie season in decades? Adam Schaatz of FootballOutsiders writing at ESPN.com:
Justin Jefferson of LSU was the fifth wideout taken in an NFL draft that went very deep at wide receiver in 2020. The Minnesota Vikings selected him with the 22nd overall pick that they had acquired in a trade for veteran WR Stefon Diggs, and by Week 3, Jefferson was put into the starting lineup as Diggs’ replacement.
All Jefferson did that day was catch seven passes for 175 yards and a 71-yard touchdown. Since then, Jefferson hasn’t just been one of the best rookie wide receivers in the league; he has been one of the best wideouts, period. Jefferson has four different 100-yard receiving days and is currently in the top 10 in the NFL with 918 receiving yards and 17.7 yards per reception.
Jefferson is blowing away his average projection, according to Football Outsiders’ Playmaker Score. Although he was the fifth wide receiver taken, he was third in our projections of average expected yards per season. But he passed his 599-yard projection by Week 9.
Where will Jefferson’s season come out among the best rookie wide receiver seasons in NFL history? To answer this question, we turned to Football Outsiders’ DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) metric. This looks at success on every play based on situation and opponent then compares it to the level of an average NFL backup wide receiver. (It’s explained more here.) Importantly, it’s normalized to every season’s average offensive level, making it easier to compare this year’s explosive offensive numbers to more defense-oriented seasons in the past. And despite this adjustment, you’ll see below that Jefferson’s season is extremely impressive.
We’re ranking the top 10 rookie wide receiver seasons since 1985, which is as far back as we have play-by-play data to compute DYAR. The totals below include both receiving and rushing value, in the regular season only.
10. Ernest Givins, 1986 Oilers: 292 DYAR
61 catches for 1,062 yards, 3 TDs, 50% catch rate
Let’s start by going back over 30 years to the Houston Oilers, before they even installed the run ‘n’ shoot offense. The Oilers drafted Givins out of Louisville in the second round and lined him up opposite veteran Drew Hill, with both receivers putting up 1,000-yard seasons in 1986. Givins wouldn’t make our list if we were only counting receiving value, but he also had nine carries for an astonishing 148 yards. Six of his carries gained at least 15 yards, including a 43-yard touchdown.
Givins never crossed the 1,000-yard barrier again, but he had four other seasons with at least 900 receiving yards, and he still ranks as the all-time leading receiver for the Titans/Oilers franchise.
9. A.J. Green, 2011 Bengals: 296 DYAR
65 catches for 1,057 yards, 7 TDs, 57% catch rate
Sometimes, your top wide receiver draft picks take some time to develop. Sometimes he never develops at all. But A.J. Green was a superstar from the moment the Bengals took him fourth overall in the 2011 draft. He finished ninth in receiving DYAR among all wideouts as a rookie, and he made his first of seven straight Pro Bowl appearances. Green also added 152 yards in defensive pass interference flags to his 1,057 receiving yards.
What’s interesting is that Green was a bit more of a deep threat in his first year, with 16.3 yards per reception. In subsequent years, Green had more targets and catches but never topped 15.1 yards per reception again.
8. JuJu Smith-Schuster, 2017 Steelers: 317 DYAR
58 catches for 917 yards, 7 TDs, 73% catch rate
Smith-Schuster, chosen out of Southern California near the end of the second round, wasn’t even a starter until halfway through his rookie season. He took advantage of constant double-teams on Antonio Brown to lead the league in receiving DVOA (value per play) and finish sixth in DYAR. Over half of his value came after his first start in Week 8. (OK, technically, he started in Week 1, but he didn’t get any targets and played less than half the snaps.)
7. Lee Evans, 2004 Bills: 330 DYAR
48 catches for 843 yards, 9 TDs, 64% catch rate
Buffalo selected Evans 13th overall out of Wisconsin and immediately lined him up as the starter opposite veteran Eric Moulds. Evans’ raw numbers might not look as impressive as those of some of the other seasons on this list, but over half the throws to him ended up as first downs or touchdowns, and he had five different catches for over 50 yards. Evans eventually peaked with 1,292 yards in 2006, but he had a somewhat shorter career, with seven years as a Buffalo starter followed by a part-time year in Baltimore.
6. Keenan Allen, 2013 Chargers: 343 DYAR
71 catches for 1,046 yards, 8 TDs, 68% catch rate
Allen was selected in the third round of the 2013 draft, at 76th overall, making him the lowest draft pick on our top-10 list. He fell in the draft due to a posterior cruciate ligament strain suffered in his last season at California. Allen didn’t play in the first week of his rookie season, but by Week 3, injuries to teammates had made him a starter. For the rest of the season, he was a first-down machine, with first downs or touchdowns on a league-leading 52% of targets. His best game of the campaign isn’t even included in his regular-season total: 142 yards and two touchdowns against Denver in a divisional-round playoff loss.
Allen struggled with injuries for a couple of seasons, but he rebounded with three straight Pro Bowl selections and over 3,700 receiving yards from 2017 to 2019.
5. Michael Clayton, 2004 Buccaneers: 405 DYAR
80 catches for 1,193 yards, 7 TDs, 66% catch rate
Selected 15th overall and the first of three LSU wideouts on our list, Clayton is one of the great mysteries of recent NFL history. How could a wide receiver be so productive as a rookie and then watch his career completely disintegrate without any major injuries? Clayton had more receiving yards as a rookie than he did in his next three years with the Buccaneers, combined. He had more touchdowns as a rookie than he did in the rest of his career, combined.
Clayton’s career is the nightmare scenario for any wide receiver who has a great rookie season. (Well, the Bucs gave him a $24 million extension with $10 million guaranteed in 2008 despite his struggles the previous three seasons, so maybe it wasn’t such a nightmare for Clayton himself.)
4. Odell Beckham Jr., 2014 Giants: 415 DYAR
91 catches for 1,305 yards, 12 TDs, 70% catch rate
The Giants selected Beckham with the 12th overall pick in a 2014 draft that was very deep at wide receiver. New York had to wait a few weeks to see him in action, since a hamstring injury kept him out the first four games of the season. If he had played a full 16-game season, Beckham would probably top this list. He led the NFL with 109 receiving yards per game in 2014. That included at least 90 yards in each of the first nine games of the year, as well as at least 130 yards in each of the final four games. And of course, it included the classic one-handed, backward-diving catch against Dallas.
Beckham was equally stellar in 2015 and 2016, but injuries have hobbled him over the past four years of his career.
3. Randy Moss, 1998 Vikings: 430 DYAR
69 catches for 1,313 yards, 17 TDs, 56% catch rate
Peyton’s Places
Moss famously dropped to the 21st spot in the 1998 draft due to character and legal concerns then went about proving everyone wrong from the moment he first took the field in the NFL. In his debut, he caught four out of five targets for 95 yards and two touchdowns. Later in his rookie season, Moss had a game with 190 yards and two touchdowns against Minnesota’s archrivals in Green Bay then another two outings with three touchdowns apiece, including on Thanksgiving Day against Dallas.
Moss, of course, went on to a Hall of Fame career after his fantastic rookie season.
2. Michael Thomas, 2016 Saints: 431 DYAR
92 catches for 1,137 yards, 9 TDs, 76% catch rate
There’s never been a wide receiver who combined volume with a high catch rate quite like Thomas. The Saints were able to wait until pick No. 47 in the second round to take him out of Ohio State, but he was a starter by his second game in the NFL. Thomas is one of only four rookies to ever put up a catch rate over 75% on at least 50 targets — and he had 40 targets more than the other three. Thomas’ career has continued to be outstanding, of course; he has finished in our DYAR top five in all four of his seasons (not including 2020), and he set an NFL record for receptions in a season last year.
Thomas moves ahead of Moss because our metrics count both complete and incomplete passes. But it’s worth noting that Moss’ rookie season would come out with more DYAR than Thomas if not for opponent adjustments.
1. Justin Jefferson, 2020 Vikings: on pace for 459 DYAR
Prorated to 16 games: 76 catches for 1,335 yards, 9 TDs, 72% catch rate
Jefferson has 316 DYAR so far, so if the season ended today, he would still end up in the all-time rookie wide receiver top 10. No rookie has ever led the league in receiving DYAR, but Jefferson was on top for much of the season. He was narrowly passed in Week 12 by the now-suspended Will Fuller V as well as by Tyreek Hill.
Jefferson is impressive for having such a high catch rate while also running deeper routes, more similar to Moss than to Thomas. In fact, Jefferson leads the league with 19 catches on passes of 16 or more yards through the air. Jefferson also has moved the sticks on half of his targets on third and fourth down, not including a couple of DPI flags on third-down passes to the end zone that also gained a new set of downs for the Vikings.
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NFC EAST
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PHILADELPHIA
Doug Pederson has not been alone in calling the recent flurry of bad plays (or badly-executed good plays). Jeff McLane of the Philadelphia Inquirer:
Doug Pederson said Tuesday that giving up his offensive play-calling duties was “on the table,” but the Eagles coach has already doled out some to assistants, NFL sources told The Inquirer.
Pederson has handed the reins over to pass game coordinator Press Taylor several times in recent games, and could give him more responsibility starting Sunday in Green Bay, according to the sources. Senior offensive assistant Rich Scangarello has also been calling plays, specifically in two-minute situations, since the beginning of the season.
Pederson, through a team spokesperson, had no comment Thursday.
The fifth-year coach has publicly resisted the idea of ceding play-calling. On Sept. 29, when first asked about the possibility, he said that he hadn’t “thought about that at all.” On Nov. 16, he said that he felt “good about the plays that have been called,” and that he felt “in rhythm” in the Eagles’ loss to the New York Giants the day before.
But the 3-7-1 Eagles have lost three in a row, and the offense scored only 17 points in each game. Pederson, for the first time, hedged on retaining play-calling after the Eagles fell to the Seahawks, 23-17, Monday, when the offense managed only nine points until a late Hail Mary.
“I take pride in play-calling, and I look at everything. I got to take everything into consideration,” Pederson said. “If I feel like I get stuck or in a rut, I definitely would consider giving that up. So, it’s definitely on the table.
“I wouldn’t say that’s off the table. But that’s also part of sparking the offense and maybe seeing the offense through somebody else’s eyes.”
Overall, the unit is 29th in yards and 25th in points. Pederson has called plays for the Eagles since becoming coach in 2016. He didn’t call plays, at least on a part-time basis, until the second half of his third and last season as offensive coordinator with the Chiefs.
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NFC WEST
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SAN FRANCISCO
Coach Kyle Shanahan is keenly aware that his players have been put in a mentally challenging position by their banishment by Santa Clara County. Grant Gordon ofNFL.com:
With new restrictions in Santa Clara County due to rising COVID-19 numbers, the San Francisco 49ers have been forced to find a new and temporary homefield.
Set to host their next two home contests at the Arizona Cardinals’ State Farm Stadium, the Niners will be away from their families during perhaps the most difficult time of the year to be away from loved ones and, due to COVID-19 protocols, are only around one another on Zooms and socially distanced practices.
Hence, San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan, who’s had to deal with his team taking on a rash of injuries this season, is urging his players to look out for each other and their teammates’ mental health.
“I just try to tell everyone, no matter what, when someone has a problem, whatever it is, there’s no problem too big or too small,” Shanahan told reporters Thursday via team transcript. “A lot of guys keep that stuff internally, but I met with a bunch of the players and I grabbed about 20 of them last night and just told them to look out for that stuff and make sure that whether they come to me, a position coach, we have lots of people here who aren’t coaches or players who can help people. So, it’s just understanding that it’s human nature. Some stuff’s going to come up over the next three weeks and no one ignore it. Just always bring it to someone’s attention because the worst thing you could be in these situations is feel kind of alone on an island and we’ve got a big group going through it, so we can rally together and make sure we help each other through it.”
Currently, the 49ers are preparing to play the Bills on Monday night in San Francisco’s first home game in Arizona. The immediate lead-up to the game isn’t the time Shanahan is overly concerned with, though. It’s the slower days when his players potentially feel more isolated that worries him most.
“Now’s the easy part, just because we got here on a workday and we’re going hard all the way until our game on Monday,” Shanahan said. “So, it’s more of the times after that.”
Topics such as mental health and depression were once taboo and came with a stigma in the world of the mighty athlete, but more and more times are changing.
With a worldwide pandemic carrying on and the NFL having to implement protocols to combat coronavirus outbreaks, a new and very real concern of the effects of isolation is prevalent.
And Shanahan, who’s fast become recognized by many as one of the top coaches in the league, is letting his players know they aren’t alone in the tough times ahead and there are avenues for them to seek assistance.
“I just try to stress to people is everyone’s going to be at different levels and some people are going to deal with this different than others,” Shanahan said. “Someone who hits that wall, whatever it is, you read about the NBA players in the bubble and all the mental issues they went through and stuff. Those guys were at least allowed to hang with each other. We’re not, so we’re basically just in rooms here. Haven’t seen the guys except when we Zoom meet them and then when we go out to the field for walkthrough, so it’s not like we’re in a bubble hanging out. So, those things will build up on guys and each guy will handle it differently.
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SEATTLE
Can WR JOSH GORDON help the Seahawks down the stretch? The NFL has given him that opportunity.
At long last, Josh Gordon is back again.
NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell conditionally reinstated Gordon on Thursday. The receiver will be eligible to return for the final two games of the 2020 season.
Gordon can begin COVID-19 testing Friday and join the club on Dec. 9, assuming negative tests. He can then attend meetings, meet individually with the coaching staff, and work out at the club facility. Gordan will be eligible to begin attending practice on Dec. 21, following the team’s Week 15 game, and play in Weeks 16 and 17.
Gordon was suspended indefinitely on Dec. 16, 2019, for violating the NFL policies on performance-enhancing substances and substances of abuse.
Nearly a year later, he’s being cleared to return and will be eligible to play after Christmas.
The Seahawks re-signed Gordon to a one-year deal in September, hoping the veteran could boost their wideout corps. The long wait for him to be cleared by the NFL is finally over.
When it’s all said and done, Gordon will end up having served a regular season’s worth of games for his fifth suspension. The wideout had previously missed two entire campaigns in 2015 and 2016 due to suspension.
Gordon began 2019 with the New England Patriots, playing six games and catching 20 passes for 287 yards and a TD. He then moved to Seattle, where he played in five games, catching seven passes for 139 yards before the suspension hit.
Flash joins a Seahawks receiving corps headlined by rising star DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, David Moore and rookie Freddie Swain.
How much of a boost Gordon can bring to the likely playoff-bound Seahawks remains to be seen, but here is hoping the latest chance at redemption sticks for the 29-year-old talent.
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AFC WEST
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LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
QB JUSTIN HERBERT is well on his way to being the greatest rookie QB of all-time, at least statistically. Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:
Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is poised to obliterate the NFL record for passing touchdowns by a rookie.
Herbert has already thrown 23 touchdown passes this season, in just 10 games. That’s an unprecedented pace for a rookie quarterback.
With five games to go, if Herbert continues to average 2.3 touchdown passes a game, he’ll finish this season with 35 touchdown passes. The current rookie record is 27 touchdown passes, set by Baker Mayfield in 2018.
Although it’s been a disappointing season for the 3-8 Chargers, they’ve found their franchise quarterback. Herbert looks like he’s ready to be a star in Los Angeles for years to come.
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AFC NORTH
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BALTIMORE
Will QB LAMAR JACKSON be back from his Thanksgiving battle with Covid by next Thursday? Coach John Harbaugh is unclear. Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com:
Baltimore Ravens coach John Harbaugh declined to address whether reigning NFL MVP Lamar Jackson would play Tuesday against the Dallas Cowboys.
Jackson, who tested positive for COVID-19 on Thanksgiving, will complete his 10-day quarantine this weekend. If Jackson is activated off the reserve/COVID-19 list Sunday, that would allow him to participate in one full practice and a walk-through before facing the Cowboys.
Ravens coach John Harbaugh was asked Thursday if Jackson would play against the Cowboys.
“I think I already answered that,” he said.
Harbaugh began his media session by saying the return of the players on the reserve/COVID-19 list is a medical decision and not a coaching one. Jackson is one of 17 players currently on Baltimore’s reserve/COVID-19 list.
By the weekend, the Ravens could get back 10 players off that list: Jackson, running backs J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram, defensive ends Calais Campbell, Justin Madubuike and Jihad Ward, outside linebacker Pernell McPhee, centers Patrick Mekari and Matt Skura and long-snapper Morgan Cox.
“When the doctors clear them for practice, that’s when we’ll have them,” Harbaugh said.
Robert Griffin III, who filled in for Jackson in Wednesday’s 19-14 loss to the Steelers, left in the fourth quarter with an injured hamstring. The only healthy quarterbacks on Baltimore’s roster are Trace McSorley and Tyler Huntley, who is on the practice squad.
Punter Sam Koch, the Ravens’ emergency quarterback, won’t get any reps at quarterback this week.
“We won’t need him as a backup,” Harbaugh said.
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CINCINNATI
As usual, early reports say the surgery on QB JOE BURROW was successful. NFL.com:
Joe Burrow’s lengthy rehab can now begin.
The Bengals announced the rookie quarterback underwent “successful” surgery Wednesday, 10 days after tearing the ACL and MCL in his left knee.
“Joe Burrow underwent successful surgery yesterday,” the team said in a statement. “The procedure went as planned and he is expected to make a complete recovery. Joe will begin the recovery process and we look forward to his return.”
NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported Burrow had the reconstructive knee surgery performed by Dr. Neal ElAttrache in Los Angeles. The quick turnaround improves his chances of being on the field for the start of the 2021 campaign.
Cincinnati is anticipating Burrow will need 8-9 months of recovery, NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reported last week. The season-ending injury cut short what was shaping up to be an excellent first year for the No. 1 draft pick. In 10 games, he completed 65.3% of his passes and averaged 268.8 yards passing while tossing 13 touchdowns and just five interceptions.
Burrow’s absence likely seals another top-five selection for the Bengals (2-8-1), whose needs remain abundant throughout the roster. The crestfallen franchise can at least take solace in not being in the market for a starting QB.
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PITTSBURGH
TE ERIC EBRON is appalled at the workload imposed by the NFL:
The re-re-re-scheduling of the Week 12 game between the Ravens and Steelers will result in the Steelers playing three games in 12 days. Steelers tight end Eric Ebron isn’t happy about that.
“We put all of these stipulations in place,” Ebron said on Uninterrupted’s 17 Weeks podcast on SiriusXM/Pandora. “Everybody signed up and said, ‘Ok, this is gonna be cool.’ Nobody thought you would play three games in 12 days. Think about that. That’s us. We play [Wednesday], we play Monday [against Washington], and we play Sunday [at Buffalo]. Oh my God. . . . They’re trying to see us fail, bro. Welcome to the National Football League.”
If the NFL had canceled the Ravens-Steelers game, no players from either team would have gotten paid. It sounds like Ebron wouldn’t have minded.
“I don’t care about a game check,” Ebron said. “I’m sorry, I know there are people who don’t make the amount of money I do. I know that. So what? I’m sure they don’t want to play three games in 12 days either. They’d much rather, you know, lose a game check than risk them not making a check the next year because they’re hurt.”
For Ebron, who has a $1 million salary this season, a game check would cost $58,823.53.
Despite his complaints, Ebron seems to be willing to play along. But he has a request. Or maybe it’s a demand.
“When we go to the Super Bowl they just better give us the biggest plane, the best hotel, the top of everything,” Ebron said. “Like whatever they did for Kansas City last year we need to be 30 times better than that when we go to the Super Bowl because that’ll be their makeup to us. They gotta roll out the red carpet for our ass now. They ain’t trying to do it in the regular season. They’re gonna have to do it then and we want it bigger and better than everybody else because they made us go through three road games in the middle of the year, and then three games in 12 days. And everybody says, ‘Oh we have the easiest schedule.’ OK, come over here and play with us then.”
It’ll be interesting to see what coach Mike Tomlin thinks of Ebron’s remarks. Tomlin insisted after Wednesday’s win over the Ravens that the Steelers “make no excuses” regarding the six-day delay of the Week 12 game. Tomlin also may not be thrilled with Ebron’s presumption that the Steelers will be heading to Tampa in February.
With all due respect to Ebron, teams play “three games in 12 days” all the time. Most teams with a Thursday game, play Sunday, Sunday, Thursday which is three games in 12 days. The Steelers schedule is the equivalent of Sunday, Friday, Thursday.
The one difference is that the Steelers aren’t getting a longer rest at the end, the “mini-bye” from Thursday to the next Sunday, so it is four games in 19 days, not four in 22.
– – –
Eric Edholm of YahooSports.com looks at how the Steelers have stayed ahead through the draft.
Forty-eight picks were made in the 2020 NFL draft before the Pittsburgh Steelers made a selection, but they were already playing from ahead at that point.
Last September, the Steelers swung a trade for disgruntled Miami Dolphins safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, plus a 2020 fourth-rounder, for Pittsburgh’s first- and fifth-round selections in the 2020 draft. (The Steelers also will swap their sixth-rounder next year for Miami’s seventh-rounder in 2021 as part of the deal.)
Even though Ben Roethlisberger missed all but one game last season, the Fitzpatrick deal was a rousing success. He spearheaded a defense that ranked in the top 10 in nearly every major category a year ago, including second in interception rate.
In 14 games with Pittsburgh last season, Fitzpatrick intercepted five passes (running one back for a 96-yard touchdown), recovered two fumbles (running one back for a 43-yard score) and forced one more fumble. Both of his touchdowns broke a tie or took the lead in eventual Steelers victories.
And Fitzpatrick, after a slow start to 2020, has been gangbusters again. In his past seven games, he has four interceptions (including a 33-yard pick six in a blowout of the Browns), a forced fumble, a fumble recovery and eight passes defended — two of those coming in Wednesday’s 19-14 win over the Baltimore Ravens.
It wasn’t by any means a pretty victory, but it’s the kind of close, hard-fought win that has become the hallmark of the 11-0 Steelers. And though Fitzpatrick can be considered only an honorary member of the 2020 Steelers draft class, that group has helped make this team a Super Bowl contender. Draft picks are assets, and it’s clear the Steelers received incredible value for the former No. 11 overall pick.
Their first actual 2020 selection, wide receiver Chase Claypool, might have been the 11th wide receiver selected in the draft but he’s second among all rookies in touchdowns with 10 (eight receiving, two rushing), ranks fourth among rookies in receptions (45), fourth in receiving yards (611) and first in TD grabs.
For a player who didn’t emerge as Notre Dame’s go-to receiver until the second half of last season and was viewed by some armchair scouts as a project type of talent perhaps requiring a move to tight end, it has been a stunning Year 1 breakout. He has caught a pass in every game, despite starting only two this season, and ranks third on the team in targets.
Even in his least-productive games, such as on Wednesday, Claypool has found ways to deliver. Although he failed to haul in two early passes in the delayed win over Baltimore, including one drop inside the Ravens’ 5-yard line, Claypool finished the game with six catches for 52 yards and drew a long pass-interference flag.
The 2020 draft pick now thrust into the spotlight
Following the game, it became clear that the Steelers will need another rookie to step up in a big way. Following a reported torn ACL suffered by Bud Dupree, the Steelers now will look to rookie Alex Highsmith to step up into his role.
Highsmith was the Steelers’ compensatory third-round selection (No. 102 overall), which they received in part for the loss of free agent Le’Veon Bell. And Highsmith has impressed in limited duty after playing out of position last season for the Charlotte 49ers.
In college, he was mostly used as a “4i” interior defender, lined up on the inside shoulder of the offensive tackle, or in what’s known as the “B gap.” For the Steelers, Highsmith has lined up more as an outside rusher, sometimes playing on his feet as the third stand-up rusher in Pittsburgh’s odd front behind starters T.J. Watt and Dupree. Highsmith also has been a core member of the Steelers’ special-teams units.
Now he’s likely to be Dupree’s replacement. Although Highsmith has only 20 tackles and one sack in 11 games, it’s not reflective of how well he has played. He also has four tackles for loss, plus an interception — he’s surprisingly nimble in coverage — in the first Ravens game that helped Pittsburgh overcome a 10-point, second-half deficit.
The rest of the six-man draft class is looking very respectable as well.
Fourth-round offensive guard Kevin Dotson has started two games and was a strong midgame injury fill-in for Pro Bowler David DeCastro against the Eagles. All signs point to Dotson being pegged as a future starter, and he’ll be a key replacement now that he’s off the COVID-19 list.
Running back Anthony McFarland Jr., selected nine picks before Dotson, has had a limited impact since a six-rush, 42-yard opener. He caught a 17-yard pass on Wednesday that helped set up a second-quarter field goal. With Pittsburgh’s running back depth being what it is, McFarland projects as a key factor down the stretch.
Sixth-round safety Antoine Brooks Jr. was cut, signed to the practice squad but then elevated to the active roster. He has seen some playing time in recent games alongside undrafted rookie James Pierre, who has been a core special-teamer most of the season. Seventh-round defensive tackle Carlos Davis has seen time as a reserve in each of the past four games.
How GM Kevin Colbert rediscovered his draft mojo
The Steelers built a dynasty in the 1970s with a string of some of the best classes in NFL draft history.
There might not have been an NFL franchise that added more talent in a six-year span as the Steelers did from 1969-1974, incredibly drafting the likes of Joe Greene, Terry Bradshaw, Jack Lambert, Mel Blount, John Stallworth, Jack Ham, Mike Webster, Dwight White, L.C. Greenwood, Franco Harris, Lynn Swann and Mike Wagner.
The Steelers’ drafts the past two decades under general manager Kevin Colbert haven’t been quite as prolific. Undoubtedly, there were some lean draft years in Pittsburgh in the 2010s, especially in the uneven classes of 2015 and 2016. But Colbert has rediscovered some of his talent-evaluation magic from the early 2000s, when he helped build a two-time Super Bowl champion roster, in recent years. And almost never has Colbert and his staff not drafted at least one impact starter in his more than 20 years at the helm.
The 2017 class (Watt, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Cameron Sutton, James Conner) has been the gold standard. The respectable 2018 and 2019 groups also each netted multiple starters and key backups. The 2019 trade-up for linebacker Devin Bush rates as a big hit, even though he’s out for the season along with Dupree, another homegrown pick.
Years ago, I asked now-retired general manager Ernie Accorsi what constituted a successful draft class. Without hesitation, he said: “Two starters, plus two other contributors.”
Viewing the Steelers’ past four classes through that prism reveals an unquestioned success in the drafting department.
And already, the 2020 class is making its indelible mark, too.
Fitzpatrick’s impact must be factored into this group. Claypool looks like the next great Steelers WR draft pick. Highsmith will play a crucial role in the team’s playoff run and could be Dupree’s replacement if he walks in free agency in the spring.
And the fact that the other four picks are still on the roster is nothing to sneeze at, with Dotson especially looking like a pick that will age well. This is what great team-building looks like.
Why are the Steelers 11-0? This high rate of draft-pick success is a pretty good answer to that question.
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AFC EAST
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BUFFALO
There is a reason QB JAKE FROMM is never active, never seen. Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.com:
In an unprecedented season, the Buffalo Bills have a plan in place should they face a situation at quarterback similar to what the Denver Broncos dealt with in Week 12.
The Broncos were forced to play their Week 12 game against the New Orleans Saints without any of their quarterbacks, each of whom had been placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list prior to the game.
If Buffalo quarterbacks Josh Allen, Matt Barkley and practice squad quarterback Davis Webb were to all be placed on that list at the same time, the Bills would turn to rookie quarterback Jake Fromm.
In an effort to keep him safely distant from the Bills’ other quarterbacks to meet coronavirus pandemic protocols, the fifth-round pick has practiced separately from the team since the beginning of the season. It’s a decision coach Sean McDermott made with general manager Brandon Beane, though they didn’t arrive at it quickly.
“Sometimes you make decisions in life that you’re not sure if they’re the right decisions,” McDermott said, “and with Brandon and I making this decision, it wasn’t easy because not only [did we] separate a player from the team but also a rookie. And it’s hard enough to acclimate oneself and transition from college to the NFL game, and now to kind of be apart has made it all that much harder [for Fromm].
“We recognized that, and Jake and our staff have just done a phenomenal job of executing that, and that’s honestly why we’ve done it, and [the Denver situation] could happen to anyone. [It] can happen to any position, for that matter, so it’s another great learning lesson for us.”
Fromm doesn’t take physical reps with the team in practice, so the only full-team experience he has had at the NFL level is the relatively few reps he took during training camp. However, Allen said he has noticed Fromm taking “mental reps” by himself.
“It’s not an easy ask, to put a guy who’s played his entire career and just kind of say, ‘Go over there and stay away from everybody,'” Allen said. “He’s handled it with a lot of pride. He takes pride in his work, and it’s good to see a guy like that go in there and do his job. He’s been a pleasure to be around, he’s grown a lot since he first got here, and he’s been awesome in the quarterback room.”
McDermott didn’t go into detail about what exactly Fromm does while separate from the team, but he confirmed that the QB is kept far enough away from the other QBs while in the facility that he doesn’t register as a close contact, should an outbreak occur.
Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll credits Beane, McDermott and assistant quarterbacks coach Shea Tierney for keeping Fromm engaged throughout the process.
“[Fromm is] kind of away from the guys. He works real hard to stay into it,” Daboll said. “Not an ideal situation, but it’s the situation that we’re in. So I just think it’s Sean and Brandon trying to stay on top of the game.”
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THIS AND THAT
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RAMS AND CHARGERS TOO?
LA Mayor Eric Garcetti and LA County Health Department head Barbara (not a medical doctor) Ferrar have to be envious of the chops Santa Clara County is getting with the lockdown crowd. If the DB was the Rams and Chargers, we’d be looking for a hideout like the 49ers found in Arizona.
His Thursday order banned “unnecessary walking.” And riding a motorcycle. And “gatherings” of more than one household (i.e. poker night or even small birthday parties). And working outside your home unless you are a government employee or someone else deemed essential. And a bunch of other things.
You heard it here first.
The DB wrote the above on Thursday afternoon. As we go to press, this at ProFootballTalk.com from Mike Florio:
ith the 49ers forced to play home games not in San Francisco but Arizona, the Rams and Chargers have begun to prepare for the possibility of playing not in L.A.
Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports reports that the NFL has communicated with the Rams and Chargers about planning for a forced relocation resulting from the ongoing spread of the coronavirus.
“[NFL] operations may not be able to continue [in California] soon and considering where we’re at in the schedule, dramatic changes like the 49ers’ relocation of operations could encompass the remainder of the season,” an unnamed source told Robinson. “That could be the case for all of the teams [in California]. The situation is being monitored and how it will impact the rest of the season is a little fluid right now. But the best thing everyone can do is just prepare for any eventuality.”
California Governor Gavin Newsome has implemented a statewide order restricting out-of-home activities in counties based on ICU bed availability in local hospitals. If Los Angeles County’s intensive-care units fall below the 15-percent minimum, the Rams and Chargers may not be able to play at home.
On Thursday, Rams coach Sean McVay was asked whether he’d heard anything about a possible forced relocation.
“Have not,” McVay said. “No. Haven’t heard anything of that nature. I think you would probably know as soon as I do if anything was affected. But we know we’re focused on the Cardinals and don’t anticipate that to be an issue with next week’s game [on Thursday night against New England], if that’s what you’re alluding to as well.”
The Rams easily could finish their home schedule in Dallas, and the Chargers (but for a conflict that would need to be addressed next weekend) could finish out the season in Las Vegas.
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MVP WATCH
QB RUSSELL WILSON, once the leader, has faded in the MVP race. We’re thinking it is PATRICK MAHOMES vs. AARON RODGERS now, but let’s see what Courtney Cronin ofESPN.com has to say.
Over the past few weeks, we’ve seen some movement in the MVP race for the 2020 NFL season. Last year’s winner has fallen out of contention, and the early front-runner for this year was leapfrogged by two former winners. With five weeks left in the season, can anyone catch Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers? Or will it come down to one of these elite quarterbacks? And could a running back really get in the mix?
A panel of nine analysts voted on the top 10 players in the MVP race thus far. We then used those nine sets of rankings to determine our top five candidates overall, using Heisman Trophy-esque scaling for each ranking. We’ll include each player’s MVP odds from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill. We’ll also look at a few names who have seen their MVP stock either spike or plummet in recent weeks.
Here are the top five playing at an MVP-caliber level through 12 weeks.
1. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
2020 stats: 3,497 passing yards, 30 TDs, 2 interceptions (plus 215 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs) in 11 games
Odds to win MVP: -450
The 25-year-old built a commanding lead in the MVP race off some exceptional play in his past six games. After the Chiefs took their sole loss to date from the Raiders, Mahomes and Kansas City rattled off six straight wins in a stretch where the QB only threw one interception.
Who is the NFL’s non-QB MVP? Five candidates to watch, from Dalvin to Donald
He leads most statistical categories at his position, ranking No. 1 in passing yards; defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) at 40.7%; expected points added (.387); and Total QBR (86.2). And he has become virtually indefensible against any scheme or strategy aimed at slowing him down, ranking first in QBR against zone coverage, the blitz, no blitz, pressure, no pressure, outside of the pocket, in the third quarter, in the fourth quarter and with or without motion, according to ESPN Stats & Information data.
Most recently, against Tampa Bay in a game that was never truly in doubt in spite of its 27-24 final score, Mahomes threw for 359 passing yards in the first half alone (the league’s highest first-half total since 1978) and ended up with a season-high 462 passing yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions.
2. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
2020 stats: 3,100 passing yards, 33 TDs, 4 interceptions in 11 games
Odds to win MVP: +550
Rodgers has four upcoming games against opponents with losing records to try to catch up with Mahomes. It’s the kind of stuff he did against the Bears on Sunday night — throwing four touchdowns in a blowout — that keeps him squarely in the picture with front-runners, along with the fact that he continues to put up big numbers without an all-star supporting cast around him.
The Packers’ signal-caller is barely behind Mahomes in Total QBR (85.3), and Rodgers just recorded his fifth game of the season with four TD passes and zero interceptions, which is tied for the most such games in a season in Packers history. That’s a feat he also achieved in 2011, during his first MVP season. The chances of Rodgers earning his third MVP honor rest heavily on the Packers making a push for the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs — and Mahomes’ play leveling off.
3. Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks
2020 stats: 3,216 passing yards, 31 TDs, 10 interceptions (plus 379 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD) in 11 games
Odds to win MVP: +750
Six weeks ago, Wilson was the favorite to win his first MVP award. Seattle was letting Russ cook, and the Seahawks were the most explosive offense in the NFL. Since then, Seattle lost three of four games from Weeks 7 to 10, and Wilson threw seven of his 10 interceptions (tied for fourth most) over that stretch. But he is still fourth in passer rating (110.8) behind Rodgers, Mahomes and Deshaun Watson, and Wilson ranks second in passing touchdowns.
To say Wilson has faded over the past month is accurate, but it’s not solely his own doing, given the deficiencies of Seattle’s defense. And as we saw in their past two games, against Arizona and Philadelphia, the Seahawks are finding other ways to win games without relying solely on their star QB.
4. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
2020 stats: 2,800 passing yards, 25 TDs, 6 interceptions in 11 games
Odds to win MVP: +2000
The 38-year-old quarterback is compiling arguably the best season of his career and has the undefeated Steelers in line for the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs. With his highest passer rating (99.0) since 2014, Roethlisberger is on pace to reach 4,000-plus passing yards and nearly 40 touchdowns with fewer than 10 interceptions.
Navigating rescheduling/snafus related to COVID-19 (through no fault of the Steelers) and a return from a 2019 injury, Roethlisberger is on a tear without Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell. And if the Steelers do somehow go 16-0, it’ll be hard for MVP voters to ignore the QB’s part in such a historic achievement.
5. Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
2020 stats: 1,257 rushing yards, 12 TDs in 11 games
Odds to win MVP: +4000
Once again, Henry is leading the NFL in rushing with 1,257 yards and is averaging 114.3 rushing yards per game. His performance against Indianapolis (27 carries for 178 yards and three TDs) was his eighth straight regular-season road game with 100 or more rushing yards, dating back to 2019. Not coincidentally, the Titans are 7-1 in those games.
The fifth-year back has seven 100-yard games this season (most in the NFL) and is No. 1 in rushing yards above expectation, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. Henry is looking for his second straight rushing title, and if history is any indication of what lies ahead, the bruising back will only get stronger as the season wears on. Henry rushed for 500-plus yards in December of the 2018 and 2019 seasons, making him the first player to do that since LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006 and 2007.
Just missed
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills: Allen (+3000) put himself back into the MVP conversation after a Week 9 win against Seattle, in which he looked like the early-season version of himself, throwing for 415 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. Had it not been for Kyler Murray’s successful Hail Mary pass to DeAndre Hopkins in Week 10, the Bills QB would have likely landed somewhere in the top five.
Aaron Donald, DT, Los Angeles Rams: Donald (+15000) went two games without a tackle before turning into an unblockable force against San Francisco in Week 12, when he totaled five tackles (one tackle for loss), a sack and four QB hits. He also batted a pass that resulted in an interception against the 49ers and forced a fumble that was returned for a touchdown. The NFL MVP might be a quarterback’s award, but the league’s sack leader deserves to be in the conversation this go-around, as he makes his case for his third Defensive Player of the Year award.
Also receiving top-10 votes: Deshaun Watson, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Kyler Murray, Ryan Tannehill, Tom Brady, T.J. Watt, Derek Carr, Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, Myles Garrett, DeForest Buckner, Xavien Howard
Stock up
Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans: The circumstances of other people’s ineptitude continue to negatively impact Watson. In a matter of hours on Monday, the Texans lost both their top wide receiver (Will Fuller V) and top cornerback (Bradley Roby) due to PED suspensions. Despite it all, Watson has single-handedly carried Houston throughout this abhorrent season. In his past six games, Watson has completed 141 of 200 passes for 1,750 yards and 16 touchdowns while not turning the ball over. That’s MVP-level play deserving of recognition.
Derek Carr, QB, Las Vegas Raiders: The loss to the Falcons was gross, but everyone deserves a complete and utter meltdown from time to time, right? Carr has been edging his way into the conversation since October; and had the Raiders not given Mahomes 1:43 to beat them in Week 11, Las Vegas would have been responsible for two Chiefs’ losses in games in which Carr was terrific.
Stock down
Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: “But Brady can’t throw it deep anymore!” OK, we heard you, and hopefully Bruce Arians did too. Brady is in the middle of a rough patch right now, after back-to-back losses to the Rams and Chiefs. But his deep ball wasn’t the problem in a loss to Kansas City; the 43-year-old went 4-for-8 for 152 yards on passes 20-plus yards downfield, with a touchdown and an interception.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens: The best ability is availability, and it certainly would have helped Jackson to try to right the ship if he were on the field against the Steelers on Wednesday. Jackson tested positive for COVID-19, though, leaving him out. Much has been debated about the Ravens’ offense losing its form from a season ago, when Jackson was the unanimous MVP selection. His passing numbers are down, as is his Total QBR (61.9). All the narrative-shattering he did in 2019 seems to have gone by the wayside this year, with his team on the outside looking in for the playoffs.
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