| NFC NORTH |
| DETROITWith the fourth down and the score tied in the final minute, 99% of all coaches would have kicked the field goal and played defense. Then there is Dan Campbell. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com: The Lions have been aggressive on fourth downs throughout head coach Dan Campbell’s tenure, but they were even more aggressive in those situations than usual on Thursday night.Not all of Campbell’s gambles paid off, but the biggest one did. Running back David Mongomery picked up seven yards on a fourth-and-inches from the Packers’ 21-yard-line with 43 seconds left in a 31-31 game and the Lions won with a Jake Bates field goal at the final whistle.It was the fourth conversion in five tries on Thursday night and, per the Elias Sports Bureau, it made them the second team to go for it inside the opponents’ 25 on fourth down of a tie game in the last 45 years. Campbell said after the game that he “just felt like we needed to end it on offense” and complimented Montgomery, the offensive line and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson for making it happen.The Lions’ defense has been shredded by injuries, which quarterback Jared Goff referenced while saying that Campbell told the team during the week that the offense would be shouldering a heavier load.“We came into this game knowing we were going to do it a little bit more than usual,” Goff said, via the team’s website. “Dan had mentioned that early in the week. He was really going to lean on our offense to make some things happen and be aggressive on fourth down if the opportunity presented itself.”The one failed conversion came on the Lions’ own 31-yard-line and led to a Packers touchdown, but the reward was ultimately worth the risks for the Lions. |
| NFC WESTNate Tice of YahooSports.com looks at all four NFC West teams: It’s wild out west in the NFC. The Seahawks, Cardinals, Rams are all vying to usurp the back-to-back division champion (and preseason conference favorite) 49ers who are currently reeling as they send even more players to the injured reserve.In this week’s playbook, I took a gander at the four teams in the NFC West, their current odds to win the division, what they’re doing to give them a chance, and what lingering question(s) I still have as they make the final push over the last month of the season.Let the battle royale out west begin!Seattle SeahawksCurrent odds to win the division (via BetMGM): +150What’s up with the Seahawks lately?After stumbling into their bye week at 4-5, the Seahawks ripped off three straight wins and now sit here in Week 14 leading the division. Their offense, which has constantly been hampered by inconsistent and outright poor play along the offensive line, has started to build cohesion since Seattle’s bye. Center Connor Williams retired and has since been replaced by second-year player Olu Oluwatimi. Right tackle Abe Lucas returned from injury in Week 11 and finally slowed down the perpetual bleeding that had been happening on a majority of plays in his absence. The pressure rate allowed by Seahawks right tackles was 15.8% from Weeks 1-9, the highest in the NFL, but has dropped to 8.2% since Week 10, slightly better than the league average of 9.2%, per NextGenStats. While right guard has been a revolving door for the Seahawks, with the Week 13 start going to sixth-round rookie Sataoa Laumea (over third-rounder Christian Haynes), the Seahawks building consistency and chemistry along their front has started to pay dividends now that they have started to get healthier and the real characters for the unit moved to the forefront.Blocking gets better as more players are able to put in time together. Variables like how long to hold a double-team or going to the exact right assignment get cleaner and improve as players (and coaches) are able to set and define their rules and timing.It’s not all amazing for the Seahawks up front and on offense as they’re still a unit that ranks around league average, but a better run game, or at least one that defenses have to honor, gives a chance to get the ball to one of their talented backs and also makes life easier for QB Geno Smith and the passing game.Smith is still as high-flying as ever with his play, automatically defaulting to the hard way like Marty McFly at the Pleasure Paradise Casino. Offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb adjusts well throughout games, but still has moments of frustration with situational play-calling (the Seahawks are terrified to run the ball in short yardage, making their offensive line improvements even more paramount). But there are fun splashes in this offense, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is starting to emerge in a more expanded role around the formation.On defense, the Ernest Jones trade has helped solidify this defense from an inconsistent unit to a rapidly improving group that’s playing faster and faster in Mike Macdonald’s kaleidoscopic scheme. The Seahawks’ front (Leonard Williams has been one of the best defenders in football the past month) and backend (Devon Witherspoon is a dynamo and Julian Love has been unlocked in this defense) have talented players. But the poor play in the middle of the defense got exposed on a near-weekly basis, especially in the run game. Since Jones has arrived, the Seahawks have gone from a sieve on the ground to one of the better run defenses, and overall units, in the NFL. Without Jones, the Seahawks allowed a 41.9% rushing success rate, which would rank 27th among NFL defenses between the Falcons and Commanders. With Jones on the field, the Seahawks allowed a rushing success rate of 35.8%, tied for seventh-best with the Bills. Their EPA against the run makes a similar type jump and their overall EPA per play allowed goes from a number in the middle of the pack without Jones (-.04, 13th) to a top-five unit with Jones (-.08, tied-fifth).This again matches what this defense looks and feels like when watching the Seahawks. Against the Cardinals in Week 12, the Seahawks allowed only two successful runs to the Cardinals RBs on 12 carries —significant considering the strength of the Cardinals’ ground attack.Lingering questionCan the Seahawks continue to rely on their run game? From Weeks 1-9, the Seahawks ran the ball on only 29.9% of their first- and second-down plays, making for the second-highest early down pass rate in the NFL over that time. Their early down rushing success rate ranked 29th in the league. So, the Seahawks didn’t run the ball much and were bad at it when they did over the first two months of the season. Since Week 10, the Seahawks run the ball on 42.9% of their early down plays, which ranks 17th. Their rushing success rate has also bumped up to a more tolerable 35.7%, middle of the pack at 16th. Those are efficiency and usage bumps that match the eye test and something that will be imperative for them to make the playoffs and possibly win a game once they’re there.The Seahawks have the seventh-hardest schedule remaining, in terms of DVOA. A huge game against the Cardinals this weekend that gives the winner pole position in the division the rest of the way is then followed up with games against the Packers, Vikings, Bears and Rams.While the improvements with the Seahawks’ defense are real, with Jones and the players becoming more well-versed in Macdonald’s defense, the offensive line, while definitely improved, still causes me some hesitation unless there’s even more rapid improvement. Some of the details and execution, or lack thereof, still give me apprehension. There’s a chance that they continue to get better as the weeks go along, but until it’s more consistent than just a few series or halves against ailing teams, it’s hard to fully hang my hat on it.Arizona CardinalsCurrent odds to win the division (via BetMGM): +170What’s up with the Cardinals lately?To start, the Cardinals have one of the best offenses in the NFL. They rank fifth in offensive success rate, fourth in explosive play rate, 10th in EPA per play, and seventh in DVOA. They are a balanced offense in terms of play-calling (17th in early down passing rate) but are built through their expansive run game behind a well-coached offensive line, a bevy of tight ends, and talented runners in RBs James Conner and Trey Benson and a little dash of QB Kyler Murray’s legs that have ripped off more explosive runs than any other offense in the NFL.Murray has been playing some of the best football of his career as a passer, too. The discipline that head coach Jonathan Gannon and the Cardinals coaches, including offensive coordinator Drew Petzing, have instilled on this team has carried over to the signal-caller. Murray has operated more from under center than he ever has in his career, college and high school included. Murray has 70 dropbacks from under center this season. He recorded 125 combined over his previous five NFL seasons. Of Murray’s 1,381 yards passing from under center in his career, 613 have come from just the 12 games this season. And Petzing pushing Murray out of his Air Raid background that he’s comfortable with has been rewarded as the season has gone along. Murray currently leads the NFL in QBR and has recorded the highest success rate on pass attempts of his entire career (his 51.5% success rate on pass attempts, so dropbacks excluding sacks and scrambles, ranks sixth in the NFL this season), while also ranking fourth in rushing yards by QBs this season.Trey McBride is in lockstep with his QB and has ascended to, at the very least, being on the podium for “best tight end in the game.” McBride and Murray’s chemistry is palpable every time you watch the Cardinals’ offense, with McBride getting a steady diet of targets. Rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., to the chagrin of many fantasy owners, has been asked to run a more traditional outside-focused route tree before adding layers and branches across the formation as the season has gone along. While there have been some inconsistencies with Harrison at the catch point, his advanced route running and ability to win on a multitude of routes has been apparent. Michael Wilson is another strong outside receiver for Murray to target and makes the most of his touches every week.The Cardinals love using McBride and their other tight ends in the run game and will pull their blockers more than any other team in the NFL, using creative motion and formation tweaks to add perceived complexity for defenses to deal with. Left tackle Paris Johnson Jr. is a future star, and while the rest of their offensive line lacks true needle-moving talent, the Cardinals play with sound rules and offensive line coach Klayton Adams gets them consistently all moving in the right direction.The Cardinals’ defense, which has been typically more fun and interesting than actually good under Nick Rallis since the start of 2023 because of their lack of talent, has started to not only improve, but look outright good.The Cardinals’ defense currently ranks ninth in DVOA for the entire season and since Week 7 ranks eighth in EPA per play allowed. You read that right. A defense that most NFL fans would struggle to even name a single starter on (even when I include star safety Budda Baker) is now creeping into the top 10 for every football writer’s favorite efficiency numbers.This defense, which still lacks high-end talent, has often needed smoke and mirrors to confuse quarterbacks and blockers….The process and more confident talent is starting to lead to results: the Cardinals were ranked 31st in pressure rate from Weeks 1-4. They have ranked eighth in pressure rate since Week 10.Lingering questionCan they finish drives and can they add more juice through the air?The Cardinals can move the ball and they can be explosive on the ground. But there are times when their passing game could be expanded more, especially on straight dropback concepts. They’re an offense designed to be methodical, but the passing game can feel a bit tight at times (19th in explosive pass rate). They can still get to big plays, especially with McBride hurdling people weekly, but they often come on designer plays on play-action concepts as opposed to the true flow of the offense.The Cardinals also move the ball well in the red zone (11th in success rate), but struggle a bit to finish drives with six points. That cropped up in Week 13 against the Vikings. The Cardinals currently rank 23rd in red zone drives that result in touchdowns. They’ve been able to hit a few big passes this season for scores, but getting more big plays through the air, and finishing the drives once they are near the end zone, will help this offense, and team, achieve even more success. The Cardinals face the 29th-most difficult schedule over the last month of the season, starting with their Week 14 battle against the Seahawks. With their run game, the play of Murray, the improvement on the defensive side, and a schedule that consists of the Patriots, Panthers, Rams, and 49ers after the Seahawks, makes them my favorite to win this division once it’s all said and done.Los Angeles RamsCurrent odds to win the division (via BetMGM): +300What’s up with the Rams lately?Pokes and a pass rush. That’s the Rams in 2024.The Rams keep trying to get their offensive personnel healthy and the right group together along their offensive line, but no matter who is out there they’ve kept churning out an effective run game (second in rushing success rate) and efficient overall offense (second in offensive success rate).The Rams will find every possible way to get to their duo run scheme, shifting players and motioning Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp at the snap to insert on blocks or just to draw attention away from the point of attack on the play. Head coach Sean McVay will revert back to using more zone varieties to keep defenses from teeing off of their primary looks. The passing game is still efficient and dangerous with Matthew Stafford behind center, even when he’s under duress (more on that in a minute).Nacua has battled injuries this season but has still been just as good as he was as a rookie, even if he’s not on the record pace like he was during his inaugural campaign. He still snatches the football and remains a big, reliable target for Stafford while remaining a smooth-moving bully with the ball in his hands.The Rams’ defense is led by a young front that currently leads the NFL in team pressure rate and is third in pressure rate when rushing four or fewer players (the Rams, however, rank only 15th in overall pressure rate since Week 10). Rookies Jared Verse and Braden Fiske have both been impact players, especially when rushing the passer. Kobie Turner and Byron Young have played well in their second seasons, creating a group effort of high-energy players with the versatile Michael Hoecht being used to fill in wherever he is needed.Linebacker Christian Rozeboom has been solid this season, too, and even undrafted rookie linebacker Omar Speights has looked like a keeper since being dropped in as a starter.Lingering questionI have a few things to pick at with the Rams, even if I’m a huge fan of this offense and the young defensive front. When their defensive front doesn’t get pressure, things can get shaky. The Rams have allowed the eighth-highest explosive pass rate since Week 7 and they give up the sixth-highest success rate on dropbacks that take longer than 4 seconds this season. Their defensive backs play sound and very aware, but can get overwhelmed by more talented pass-catchers when they have to hold up on more extended dropbacks.Can the Rams’ offensive line finally gel and figure out their pass protection? I trust the run blocking of this unit. Even when dealing with injuries, their players are constantly sound in their execution, but there are times when the pass protection can be inconsistent. That can lead to Stafford, not exactly the quickest mover these days in the pocket, vulnerable to taking sacks or having to throw the ball away early.Speaking of Stafford, the Rams also have drastic splits in their effectiveness when facing man coverage compared to zone coverage.This season, Stafford has faced the fourth-most dropbacks against man coverage. He ranks 24th in success rate and 28th in EPA per dropback on those plays (he improves to more middle of the pack with Kupp and Nacua both on the field). Against zone coverages, Stafford ranks first in success rate and 10th in EPA per dropback (first and seventh with Kupp and Nacua both on the field). That’s a drastic difference, especially if defenses can pick up on the split and change their own play-calling to take advantage of it (like the Saints did in Week 13 by running more man coverage before the Rams decided to steamroll them in the second half). This is a testament to McVay and the Rams’ offensive coaching staff’s ability to adjust as games go along (the Rams rank first in second-half success rate), but how the Rams look to alleviate their man coverage issue will be something I’m keeping my eye on. Nacua and Kupp aren’t the fastest receivers, and the rest of the Rams’ receiving corps doesn’t threaten defensive backs consistently enough for Stafford to reliably target them. Stafford not being a running threat can also compound this issue, since defenses can stick with man coverage and not worry about the QB running them out of the plays.The Rams have the ninth-hardest schedule remaining in terms of DVOA, with the Bills this weekend followed by games against the 49ers, Jets, Cardinals, and Seahawks. They are currently listed as +300 to win the division, with a game remaining against all of their division rivals.I trust the run game, I trust the QB, I trust the offensive staff, I really like the pass rush. This team could break any which way, win any (or every) game, maybe even one in the playoffs, or they could miss the playoffs completely. Any of those results and I would believe it. It’s a fun Rams team that does a lot well. Whether they have the horses, and/or the mental innovation, to shore up their weak points will determine how long this season goes.San Francisco 49ersCurrent odds to win the division (via BetMGM): +1400What’s up with the 49ers lately?This really can double as the lingering question section because what happened to the 49ers this season will need a further deep dive in the future.Pick a position and the 49ers have had significant injuries there. Hell, pick a type of injury and a 49ers player has probably had it this year. Everything from Achilles tendinitis to ACL tears to their first-round rookie receiver getting literally shot. Javon Hargrave tore a triceps. Talanoa Hufanga worked back from his own ACL injury in 2023 to play two games before suffering a wrist injury that has kept him out (he may return soon, though). Charvarius Ward has dealt with a knee injury and personal tragedy. Christian McCaffrey traveled the globe to figure out his ailments before returning and then succumbing to IR himself after the 49ers’ most recent game (the fitting 13th week of the season). His backup Jordan Mason joined him on IR this past week, too. George Kittle and Nick Bosa have missed time. Fred Warner is valiantly battling just to stay on the field. Dre Greenlaw still hasn’t seen the field after his devastating Super Bowl injury. Starting quarterback Brock Purdy missed a game with a shoulder injury that is still lingering.Dealing with that quantity of injuries will limit any team’s aspirations for the season. Every player I listed above, outside of Mason and Greenlaw, has made a Pro Bowl in their career. Most have made at least one All-Pro team. And despite that, the 49ers are still (technically) in the playoff race. Sure, it’s highly unlikely, but there’s still a tiny chance!It’s just been too much for the rest of the team to overcome. The 49ers’ offense has lacked real venom this season. They still ranked in or near the top 10 in all of the general efficiency stats. But it always felt harder this season than it has in recent seasons under Kyle Shanahan. With the 49ers’ skill players moving in and out of the lineup because of injuries, and a lack of resources spent on the offensive line to carry the weight during tough stretches, the offense has been mortal this season after feeling invulnerable for stretches over the past two seasons. If the season were to end today, this would be the 49ers’ lowest rushing success rate since 2019. Their lowest EPA per play since 2020. It would be their lowest explosive play rate and first downs per game since Shanahan’s first season in Santa Clara back in 2017. The McCaffrey injuries left the 49ers grasping to replace his impact (most felt with the lack of explosive plays and the 49ers’ frustrating forays into the red zone this season, where the 49ers put up their lowest scoring rates since 2018).The defense felt the absence of their impact players Ward, Greenlaw, Hargrave, and Hufanga (rookie Malik Mustapha has had some encouraging stretches on the backend, though). Offenses can attack the spine of this defense on the ground or through the air, with the ability to break more tackles on underneath throws without much out there to help Warner despite his best efforts. Teams are still not getting explosives against this defense, but offenses haven’t been this efficient against the 49ers since before they drafted Bosa in 2019. The 49ers allowing the highest success rate since 2018 speaks to this, but even looking at another stat indicates just how much easier it has been on offenses in 2024; the average distance to go for opposing offenses on third down against the 49ers is 6.7 yards this season, the shortest allowed since Shanahan has been the head coach of the 49ers.The 49ers still have that small, small chance to make the playoffs, which is a miracle considering their building has been essentially an infirmary this season. It’s tough to see them winning out given the current makeup of the team and what currently hinders them, but they remain fascinating to follow for the rest of the season and into the (shudder) offseason as well. |
| SEATTLEThe rest of the NFC West beware, the Seahawks just got a key reinforcement. Brady Henderson of ESPN.com on the return of LB UCHENNA NWOSU: The Seattle Seahawks activated outside linebacker Uchenna Nwosu off injured reserve Thursday, clearing the way for the team’s best edge defender to return Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals from his second significant injury of the season.The first one, Nwosu believes, was the result of a “dirty play.”On the opening drive of the Seahawks’ preseason finale against the Cleveland Browns, Nwosu suffered a sprained MCL after right guard Wyatt Teller dove at his left knee on a cut block. Nwosu had been flagged for roughing the passer one play earlier for a hit on Jameis Winston.“I thought it was dirty, straight up,” Nwosu said of Teller’s block. “I didn’t like it. It’s preseason. We’re going to be in there like two drives, but it’s football. I get it, it’s football at the end of the day, but it was definitely a dirty play.”The Browns were flagged for an illegal chop block, though running back Jerome Ford — who engaged Nwosu high as Teller was already blocking him low — was announced as the guilty party.When asked by ESPN about the play in October, Nwosu chalked it up to being a part of football and said he had to better protect himself next time. But he had a much different tune Thursday. Without mentioning anyone by name, he said he also would have considered Teller’s block a dirty play had it occurred in a regular-season game.“I know you’re allowed to cut,” he said. “But the way you cut, you can’t do it going back towards your own end zone, and that’s what he did to me, so that’s what made it dirty.”Nwosu missed the first four games while recovering from his MCL sprain. That was among the rash of injuries that have sidetracked his career since he joined Seattle in free agency in 2022 and broke out with a career-high 9.5 sacks that season to earn a three-year, $45 million extension. Nwosu missed the final 11 games of 2023 because of a torn pectoral muscle. His return in Week 5 of this season from the MCL sprain was cut short after 20 plays because of a left quad injury.“It’s been tough,” Nwosu said, noting that he had dealt with only minor injuries over his first five seasons before he tore his pec. “I feel like it’s really things that have kind of been out of my control, especially with the knee injury I had. And then one thing leads to another, so who knows. So just kind of just refiguring myself out, just trusting my process and knowing that I know my career is going to be great and I’ll still be the same player I am, and just continue to trust myself.”General manager John Schneider previously described Nwosu’s quad injury as a “pretty intense” strain, but Nwosu said Thursday that it was torn.“Talking to doctors, no surgery was needed,” he said. “I rehabbed, and I feel ready to go.”Nwosu, 27, returned to practice last week. Now he returns to a resurgence defense that has vaulted the Seahawks to the top of the NFC West at 7-5 after three straight victories. He said he’s preparing to manage a full workload Sunday at Arizona. He averaged over 50 snaps per game in 2022, but Seattle’s defensive front is much deeper this season than it was then.“That’s the guy right there,” defensive tackle Jarran Reed said. “He’s a guy that’s hungry. He’s a true leader. He can help the guys on the edge as well. Having him back is going to be huge. I think we are only going to get better.”On the same day he was activated off IR, Nwosu was announced as the Seahawks’ nominee for the Walter Payton NFL Man of the Year Award. He said his recent injuries have afforded him time to think about ways he can make a difference off the field.“Even though, of course, my mind is still on football, always will be,” he said. “But when you have that extra time, you can think about things you want to do for the community. That’s just what I’ve been trying to use to distract myself a little bit, not think so much about the injuries and be down on myself, just use this time to give back to the community and make myself feel better.” |
| THIS AND THAT |
| BELICHICK A HEEL?When the University of North Carolina fired 73-year-old Mack Brown last week, you may have thought they would be turning to a younger coach to succeed him. And a leading candidate it seems is indeed one year younger. Conor Ryan at Boston.com: According to multiple reports, Bill Belichick is still adamant about coaching football in 2025 and beyond.But could it be at the collegiate level instead of the NFL?According to Grant Hughes of Inside Carolina, Belichick interviewed for the head coaching vacancy at the University of North Carolina this week.The Tar Heels have already started to conduct interviews after firing head coach Mack Brown on Nov. 26, with Belichick standing as a surprising candidate. Even with Belichick’s lofty resume over nearly 50 years of coaching in the NFL, he has never coached in the collegiate ranks before.Hughes added that Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall and Georgia defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann have also been considered for the coaching vacancy at Chapel Hill.Andrew Carter of The News & Observer confirmed via a source that Belichick interviewed with UNC, with the source adding: “He blew them away in the interview.”But even though Carter reported on X that Belichick’s “interest is high, and genuine”, joining the college game as coach remains “extremely unlikely to happen due to his age (72) and lack of college experience.”Even if Belichick doesn’t have any experience coaching at the college game — which has evolved rapidly in recent years amid revamped transfer-portal rules and the influx of NIL deals — he does have some ties to UNC.Belichick’s father, Steve, was a longtime college assistant coach whose career included a three-year stint at Chapel Hill, from 1953-55. Add in the fact that Belichick’s most beloved football player, Lawrence Taylor, played at UNC, and it’s easy to see why there might be an affinity for powder blue.Still, the writing has been on the wall that Belichick wants another shot at coaching in the NFL, especially with the legendary head coach sitting just 26 regular-season victories behind Don Shula for the most coaching wins in NFL history.“Those who know Belichick best say that despite his burgeoning media résumé, the six-time Super Bowl-winning head coach still would like to return to coaching in 2025, but only in the right situations with good jobs,” ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported in September. More background from Chris Low of ESPN.com: UNC fired Mack Brown on Nov. 26 after six seasons with the Tar Heels. The 73-year-old Brown, a College Football Hall of Famer, was in his second stint at the school. Belichick is only a year younger than Brown, who was the oldest coach in the FBS this season.The Tar Heels went 44-33 under Brown from 2019 to 2024 and finished 6-6 this season. Brown will not coach in UNC’s bowl game, and Freddie Kitchens, a former Cleveland Browns coach who has served as UNC’s run game coordinator and tight ends coach the past two seasons, is serving as interim head coach while the school seeks a replacement.Belichick is far and away the biggest name to surface in the North Carolina search, and sources said there was genuine interest on both sides. But Tulane’s Jon Sumrall was also at or near the top of North Carolina’s list and was expected to speak formally with school officials after the Green Wave’s AAC championship game against Army on Friday. Other candidates for the job include Iowa State’s Matt Campbell, Georgia defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann, and Steve Wilks, who was the Arizona Cardinals’ head coach in 2018 and the Carolina Panthers’ interim head coach in 2022. Wilks was a volunteer assistant this season at Charlotte.North Carolina had initially targeted Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, a UNC graduate, but he declined the Tar Heels’ overtures and instead wanted to remain in the NFL.Will Brinson of CBSSports.com calls the interview a publicity stunt: Hit up any major sports site on the internet right now — including CBSSports.com — and you’re going to see the news that Bill Belichick interviewed for the recently vacated North Carolina Tar Heels head coaching position. Let’s be very clear: this is not happening.It’s all a giant publicity stunt, part of the sometimes carefully orchestrated dance that is a coaching search. I don’t doubt for a second that Belichick interviewed with UNC athletic director Bubba Cunningham. And I certainly don’t doubt that Belichick reportedly “blew [Carolina] away” in the interview.He’s, you know, Bill Belichick.The dude won eight Super Bowl rings as either Giants defensive coordinator (twice) or Patriots head coach (six times). He’s on the NFL’s All-Decade Team twice over and on the NFL 100th Anniversary All-Time Team. I’m not sure why we even couch it as “maybe the greatest coach of all-time” … he’s just the greatest coach in NFL history at this very moment.If Belichick decided he wanted to get into college football, I don’t doubt that he would find a way to win. He’d have a major leg up from a schematic perspective. He can clearly recruit college-aged talent. As a fan of UNC’s primary football rival, I have zero interest in Belichick coming to Chapel Hill, although my college football fandom has absolutely zero to do with why I think this is all a bunch of malarkey.The idea of Belichick joining the college ranks is ridiculous for a bunch of other pretty obvious reasons. But first let’s look at why the interview with the Tar Heels is a symbiotically beneficial exercise.Belichick wants to coach again. That was known last year when he interviewed with multiple teams, including the Falcons multiple times. Him not landing a gig was probably the shock of the offseason, just a hair ahead of Aaron Rodgers drawing headlines for spending a week on ayahuasca in a darkness retreat. Belichick’s robust presence in the media this season — from his weekly ‘ManningCast’ appearances to his Underdog Fantasy Sports podcast — was a gift to us all, honestly, and we should appreciate getting to soak in his football knowledge on a daily/weekly/however long basis.Interviewing with Carolina allows him to remind everyone he’s serious about coaching while also increasing his market value. Even if you don’t think this is a serious possibility, supply and demand still exist.For the Tar Heels, this was a brilliant move from a coaching search perspective. There isn’t a lot of optimism about football in Chapel Hill right now, not after chasing off 73-year-old Mack Brown and seeing the list of realistic candidates bandied about by people close to the program. I agree wholeheartedly with my colleague’s ranking of UNC as the top-available job as we stand today, but the program is looking at television retreads (Dan Mullen) and Group of Five coaches. I’m not saying whoever they hire won’t win at Carolina; I just don’t think the fanbase was incredibly enthused about the search.With the Belichick interview and subsequent leaking of said interview, the UNC coaching search is front and center in the sports world. Belichick meeting with Carolina legitimizes that job and, once again, creates an element of supply and demand to the Tar Heels’ opening that might not have been there before. If Bill Belichick is interested in a job opening, shouldn’t you be interested in that job opening? (Answer: yes, yes you should.)But even if Belichick’s interest is “genuine,” there’s a myriad of other reasons he’s not taking the job in Chapel Hill.For one, Belichick’s the greatest coach in professional football history. He has eight Super Bowl rings. Something tells me he’s not lying awake at night wondering why he never won an ACC Championship. Additionally, Belichick is 72 years old! He has never coached at the college level before.I repeat: he has never coached at the college level before. He just joined “InstaFace” this year.And the collegiate game has changed massively over the past several years with the advent of NIL and the insanity that is the transfer portal. Guys like Mack Brown are the same age as Belichick and are completely worn out by the college game as it sits right now, and with good reason. Roy Williams and Coach K walked away from college basketball despite fielding highly competitive teams because of everything going on with the game. Belichick’s good friend and close confidant, 73-year-old Nick Saban, retired from college football last year for similar reasons.Why on freaking Earth would Belichick decide to start coaching college football at the same age these guys are walking away? It would be incredibly un-Belichickian. Not because he’s afraid of a challenge, but because he’d be putting himself at a massive, inherent disadvantage by starting in the college game at his age without any experience.Belichick ran things his way in New England for two decades. He was in charge of everything. You think he’d like glad-handing boosters or dealing with the NCAA? Come on, man. UNC alum Arthur Smith, a much younger coach with more college experience, quickly leaked out that he wasn’t interested in returning to the college ranks. These would-be NFL coaches know there are going to be a ton of job openings once we get through Week 18, as there always are.Any interest here is purely superficial and designed to generate buzz around both parties. It makes for spicy headlines, piles of social media engagement and an interesting theoretical discussion about whether someone at Belichick’s age with his experience level could thrive in the college setting. But it ain’t happening. If it does, I’ll happily print out this column and eat it live on air.If I’m a Tar Heels fan, I’m screaming “sign me up” all day (although some folks on their message boards, I’m told, aren’t even that enthused about the idea). Even if it doesn’t work out, you don’t pass on the opportunity to hire the goat and put him in charge of beating up on Boston College and Wake Forest. But don’t get your hopes up for something that isn’t happening. |
| DEION STILL A BUFF?ESPN.com with a long look at whether Coach Prime will remain at Colorado: Deion Sanders has built Colorado into a Big 12 contender, going 9-3 in his second season. He has coached Travis Hunter, the Heisman Trophy favorite, to a spectacular season, with the wide receiver/cornerback catching 92 passes and picking off four more on defense. And his son, Shedeur, just set the Buffaloes’ single-season passing record and is projected to be one of the top picks in next year’s NFL draft.Hunter and Sanders’ sons Shedeur and Shilo — who started at safety for the Buffaloes the past two seasons — are probably headed to the pros, which means the coach no longer has personal ties to Colorado. The Buffs have invested in the football program since Sanders was hired in December 2022, but they don’t have the same resources as college football’s blue-blood programs. But he has recruited well recently, including signing five-star quarterback Julian Lewis, ESPN’s second-ranked recruit in the 2025 class, on Wednesday.Could Sanders’ next step be to leave Colorado for another job — elsewhere in college football or in the NFL?Sanders’ name has been mentioned for NFL head-coaching jobs, including the Dallas Cowboys, where he starred as a player from 1995 to 1999. Dallas is 5-7 and could part ways with Mike McCarthy at the end of the season. The New York Jets, New Orleans Saints and Chicago Bears have all fired their coaches this season.At the college level, before he was hired by Colorado, the 57-year-old Sanders interviewed at other schools, including his alma mater, Florida State, which just finished a disastrous 2-10 season. No major Power 4 openings are expected over the next month, but he could be a target if there’s a surprise.“It’s going to be hard for Colorado to hang onto him,” a college coaching agent told ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg. “Everyone has taken notice, and rightfully so, of what he’s doing.”We asked Rittenberg and NFL reporter Jeremy Fowler to survey college decision-makers and NFL execs to get a feel for Sanders’ future. Is what he built at Colorado sustainable, even with his two biggest stars leaving? Is there another college football job that could intrigue him? And are the rumblings about interest from NFL teams true? Here’s everything they found out:What’s the feeling about Sanders inside the Colorado program?The Buffaloes have invested in Sanders from the start and continued to make upgrades after an extended period of being under-resourced as a program. Colorado also has embraced the unique elements he brings — cameras capturing everything around the program, celebrities on the sidelines and his own marketing obligations and ambitions. Sanders and athletic director Rick George have been aligned from the jump.“He’s acting as if he’s back,” a Colorado source said. “I think he’s all-in. Normally, you can tell when guys are fed up and they’re trying to leave and they’re unhappy. They’re probably going to pay him a lot of money, extend his contract, keep him happy.”Added another source: “He has a lot of leeway to go out and monetize himself off the field. You can’t watch football for 15 minutes and not see Deion.”Sanders is in the second year of a five-year, $29.5 million contract. His deal features several bonuses he hit this fall, but he’s still a bargain compared to the top earners in the Big 12 and SEC, who make more than $9 million per year. Colorado recognizes that and probably will rework his deal, hoping to keep him for as long as he wants to coach.Several others I spoke to in Boulder last week made a similar point about Sanders: Why would he be willing to give up so much power and control, even for a higher-profile gig? Colorado can make the College Football Playoff in the Big 12. Its recent recruiting surge, which includes Lewis, provides further confirmation he can upgrade the roster.“All it takes is one special year to go on a run over a six-to eight-week period and you can win a national championship,” a Colorado source said. “We can be that team in the Big 12 as long as Deion’s here.”Colorado signed its best high school recruiting class in years, headlined by Lewis and defensive end London Merritt, a top-60 prospect among a flurry of commitments late last week. The Buffaloes signed eight four-star recruits along with Lewis, a five-star. In comparison, their 2023 class included three four-star prospects and five-star offensive tackle Jordan Seaton. — RittenbergIs there another college job that might be appealing to Sanders?Not one that is open. Sanders knows he can attract notable transfers and top recruits to Boulder. But Colorado hasn’t had an AP top-five finish since 1995, and would have a hard time getting through multiple SEC or Big Ten teams. Sanders enjoys being in Boulder and has set up roots, as he referenced last month with his “kickstand” comment.“I’m happy where I am, man,” Sanders said. “I’ve got a kickstand down. You know what a kickstand is? … That means I’m resting. I’m good, I’m happy, I’m excited. I’m enthusiastic about where I am. I love it here, truly do.”If Sanders doesn’t see a likely path to a national title at Colorado, he could seek a job in one of the sport’s two power conferences — the SEC or Big Ten. His roots in the South and Southeast make him a more natural fit in the SEC, which doesn’t project to have any openings this cycle. Whenever Arkansas comes open again, Sanders could be a strong candidate after interviewing twice with athletic director Hunter Yurachek in 2019 and impressing the school. If LSU or Florida make changes next season, Sanders certainly could be a candidate. The same goes for Auburn if it moves on from Hugh Freeze. Sanders will only target programs that allow him to be his full self, sources said, which means extra elements and people around the program that aren’t present at most places.“There aren’t a lot of Deion Sanders growing on trees,” an industry source said. “The package of who he is, is rare. So it’s very much the place.“You’ve got to give credit to CU and their leadership and the administration for going out and saying, ‘Let’s go all-in.'” — RittenbergWhat about Florida State, Sanders’ alma mater?Florida State was the first FBS program to interview Sanders, in 2019, when he was coaching high school ball in the Dallas area and lacked college coaching experience. His profile for the FSU job is much stronger now, but his desire to get back might be different. One thing those close to Sanders point out is how his life before college coaching was based in the Dallas area, not in his home state of Florida. It’s why TCU, a job Sanders interviewed for after Gary Patterson’s dismissal in 2021, made a lot of sense.Mike Norvell, who led Florida State to an ACC title and an undefeated regular season in 2023, will get another chance to get things right after a disastrous fall. He just hired Gus Malzahn, previously UCF’s head coach, as offensive coordinator and Tony White, previously at Nebraska, as defensive coordinator. The eight-year, $84 million extension Norvell signed early this year after some interest from Alabama includes a buyout equating to 85% of his remaining salary. Florida State doesn’t have the financial clout to make a move right now, even if there’s renewed interest in Sanders.A Sanders-FSU reunion wouldn’t happen until 2026, at the earliest, and even that seems unlikely. — RittenbergOn the NFL side, what are you hearing about the level of interest teams have in Sanders?In what’s considered a weaker candidate pool this NFL cycle, prominent collegiate coaches could be intriguing to NFL owners and decision-makers. But the evaluators and executives I’ve checked with so far aren’t hearing Sanders’ name often in coaching circles — at least not yet.“I could see him getting an interview or two,” an industry source said. “If you’re focused on finding a dynamic leader, he certainly provides that as a strength.”Added an AFC executive: “Only time I’ve seen his name is on TV by Michael Irvin,” referring to Irvin’s recent comments on Fox’s “The Herd with Colin Cowherd” that Sanders would “100 percent” be interested in the Cowboys job. “I think he’s capable, but [he] would need a strong front office to support him.”The Dallas job is not open now, and Sanders is not seen as a natural fit for the vacant spots in Chicago, New Orleans or New York. The way some see it, his style — including lengthy motivational speeches — is better suited for the college game.“He’s a good fundraiser and college guys buy into what he sells,” an NFL personnel director said. “He’s tried to hire good coaches, but [I] have heard that he can be hard to work for. And I’m not sure the NFL guys will be in as quickly and also stay as engaged.” — FowlerIs there another potential NFL job that could entice Sanders?One team comes up often when asking people around the league about a potential fit: the Las Vegas Raiders.Las Vegas doesn’t have an opening, but this is a job people are watching closely, especially how the 2-10 Raiders finish the season under first-year coach Antonio Pierce. To Pierce’s credit, his team showed resolve in last week’s loss to the Chiefs. It was positioned to win the game with a field goal before a crushing botched snap resulted in a fumble.The belief among many in the league is that Tom Brady, now a minority owner of the Raiders, will have some level of influence over major decisions, and team owner Mark Davis will covet his knowledge and insight. If Brady is looking for a fellow GOAT, Sanders has a compelling case as the best cornerback in NFL history.This is a franchise that has cycled through six different coaches since 2014 and needs stability. There would also be an element of excitement for a market and a franchise associated with the kind of flash Coach Prime could provide.“If there’s one fit, it’s Vegas because of the culture there and the bright [Vegas] lights and Davis’ willingness to do something different,” an AFC executive said. “Not sure whether it would work, but it would be exciting.” — FowlerWhat does Sanders’ son being a top prospect mean in all of this?This is where the Raiders’ intrigue deepens. Shedeur Sanders could be the first quarterback taken in the 2025 draft, which, in most years, would warrant the No. 1 overall pick. The 2-10 Raiders have steep competition to be the worst team in the league. They are projected to land the No. 3 pick by ESPN’s Football Power Index, with a 15.7% chance to pick No. 1.The looming question: Does Sanders want to coach his son at the NFL level? And what would a father-son setup even look like?Though Sanders might be able to compartmentalize coaching his son and an entire team of grown millionaires, college is closer to pee-wee football than the NFL.“I hope for Shedeur that doesn’t happen and he has to be his own man in his own career,” an AFC executive said.Sanders has said would will shepherd his son’s draft process to ensure Shedeur ends up in a healthy environment. The New York Giants (2-10), Cleveland Browns (3-8), New York Jets (3-9) and Tennessee Titans (3-9) are among the other quarterback-needy teams likely to draft in the top 10.One thing that seems highly unlikely: the concept of Sanders going to Dallas as part of a package deal to send Shedeur to the Cowboys. Dak Prescott has an $89.9 million cap hit in 2025 that is virtually untradable. The Cowboys could theoretically stash Shedeur for two years behind Prescott, but what could go wrong there? They’re trending toward a first-round selection outside of the top 10, and they need to allocate that pick for bigger needs.Sanders’ name will be linked to Dallas until the Cowboys solidify their coaching position for 2025. McCarthy’s five-year contract, signed before the 2020 season, is set to expire after the season. While I won’t totally take an extension off the table — team owner Jerry Jones has publicly acknowledged the possibility on a local radio appearance — the expectation leaguewide is McCarthy won’t be retained. — Fowler |
| EACH TEAM’S QB STATUSMike Sando of The Athletic tells us how each team feels, or should feel, about its starting QB: As I usually do this time of year, I’ve grouped all 32 quarterbacks into buckets based on how their teams should feel about them, from “Committed Without Reservation” at one end to “We’re Looking For A Way Out” at the other.The New York Giants’ current starter (Drew Lock) is not listed, but their former one (Daniel Jones) does appear. I’ve included contract duration and salary rank, along with where each ranks in EPA per pass play among the 40 quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts this season.1. Committed Without ReservationWe have top-five QBs in their primes, signed to long-term contracts.Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City ChiefsSigned thru: 2031 | APY Rank: 12 | QB EPA Rank: 10/40There’s been an interesting statistical tradeoff for Mahomes in recent weeks. After tossing eight touchdown passes with nine interceptions in the first seven games, the TD-INT ratio has flipped to 11-2 in five subsequent games. His sack rate has also jumped from 5.1 percent to 9.0 percent, while his rate of passes gaining more than 15 yards has dropped. Not that any of these things affect how the Chiefs feel about their quarterback, who leads the league in fourth-quarter comebacks (four) and game-winning drives (six), per Pro Football Reference.Josh Allen, Buffalo BillsSigned thru: 2028 | APY Rank: 14 | QB EPA Rank: 4/40Allen has become the betting favorite for MVP honors in recent weeks and is everything the Bills hoped they were getting when they traded up to draft him in 2018. His sack rate has fallen and his explosive pass rate has risen across all three offensive coordinators during his seven seasons.Lamar Jackson, Baltimore RavensSigned thru: 2027 | APY Rank: 8 | QB EPA Rank: 1/40The Ravens are winning the big bet they made on Jackson when they signed him to an extension before the 2023 season. Jackson’s production, in decline before he signed the deal, has reached new highs. He has 41 more total touchdowns than turnovers since signing the deal, tied with Allen for the best differential in the league. Jackson ranked 21st (+13) across the 2021-22 seasons.Joe Burrow, Cincinnati BengalsSigned thru: 2029 | APY Rank: 4 | QB EPA Rank: 6/40Burrow passed for 820 yards with nine touchdowns and one interception in 41-38 and 35-34 defeats to Baltimore this season, capturing the essence of this Bengals season. Cincinnati ranks fifth in offensive EPA per play but only 30th on the defensive side. That is the largest differential between offensive and defensive rankings through Week 13. The other teams with similar disparities include the 8-5 Ravens (-24), 8-5 Commanders (-24) and 6-6 Buccaneers (-23).Justin Herbert, Los Angeles ChargersSigned thru: 2029 | APY Rank: 7 | QB EPA Rank: 21/40Herbert was fifth in Quarterback Tiers voting before the 2023 and 2024 seasons despite slipping from Tier 1 to Tier 2 entering 2024. He’s throwing fewer passes and taking more sacks for a team that is winning on defense. It’s difficult to imagine coach Jim Harbaugh straying too far from his run-heavy philosophy.2. Committed And Hoping The Sky Is The LimitWe think our young QB can become stars (and there’s some evidence to prove we are right).Jordan Love, Green Bay PackersSigned thru: 2028 | APY Rank: 3 | QB EPA Rank: 13/40Comparing Love to predecessor Aaron Rodgers would seem unfair if Love weren’t starting his career with similar production.Rodgers through 27 starts: 64 percent completions, 7.8 yards per attempt, 50 touchdown passes, 18 interceptionsLove through 27 starts: 63 percent completions, 7.4 yards per attempt, 51 touchdown passes, 23 interceptionsThe main differences: Rodgers added more EPA on scrambles and lost more EPA on sacks, while Love has lost more on interceptions.C.J. Stroud, Houston TexansSigned thru: 2026 (not counting fifth-year option) | APY Rank: 26 | QB EPA Rank: 25/40To what degree does Stroud’s decline in production from his rookie season reflect a weakened offensive line and injuries at receiver?That will be a key question heading into next season for the 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year.3. Committed And ContentWe have veteran quarterbacks signed for the long term and are happy with the situation.Jared Goff, Detroit LionsSigned thru: 2028 | APY Rank: 6 | QB EPA Rank: 3/40Goff is proving to be a great good-team quarterback.Now in his fourth season with Detroit, Goff is replicating his 2018 Super Bowl season with the Rams through 12 games, except he’s throwing the ball less frequently and throwing it shorter, which means a higher completion rate and fewer explosive gains.Everything else is about the same: the won-lost record (11-1 both years), the passer rating (109.9 then, 109.0 now) and the elevated yards per attempt (9.1 then, 8.8 now).Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia EaglesSigned thru: 2028 | APY Rank: 9 | QB EPA Rank: 12/40The Eagles are 31-4 through the first 12 games of the past three seasons with Hurts in the lineup. The big difference this season is how much more Philadelphia is leaning on its defense and ground game, led by Saquon Barkley.Hurts, in his first season with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, has attempted 304 passes during the 10-2 start this season, down from 403 during the team’s 10-2 start last season. That’s a drop from 33.5 attempts per game to 25.3 per game.Kyler Murray, Arizona CardinalsSigned thru: 2028 | APY Rank: 10 | QB EPA Rank: 14/40Murray seems to have matured and is no longer defined by the “homework clause” Arizona put into (and later removed from) the contract extension he signed in July 2022.After missing parts of the past two seasons with a torn ACL, he has started the first 12 games of a season for the first time since 2020, his second year in the league.One big difference from then to now: He averaged a career-high 7.6 rushes and scrambles per game then, compared to a career-low 3.9 this season. While he leads the league in ESPN’s Total QBR metric, teams are blitzing Murray much more effectively than in recent seasons.Dak Prescott, Dallas CowboysSigned thru: 2028 | APY Rank: 1 | QB EPA Rank: 28/40The Cowboys have had a winning record six times in seven seasons when Prescott started at least half the games and never had a losing season (they were 8-8 in 2019). But the team fell off in 2024, Prescott suffered a season-ending hamstring injury and his new contract is set to count $89 million against the cap in 2025 — his age-32 season — making the future look murkier.Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay BuccaneersSigned thru: 2026 | APY Rank: 18 | QB EPA Rank: 11/40Mayfield has found a home in Tampa and is providing a solid return on the Buccaneers’ three-year, $100 million investment in him. Since joining Tampa Bay last season, he ranks 10th in EPA per pass play and is tied with the Ravens’ Jackson for the league lead in touchdown passes (53).The Buccaneers have a mediocre record this season (6-6) because the defense ranks 29th in EPA per play. Mayfield has posted career-high totals through 12 games for passing yards (3,034), passing touchdowns (25), passer rating (101.3) and EPA per pass play (0.11). He’s done it for an offense that ranks fifth in points per game (27.2) and sixth in EPA per play.4. Committed And Content, With No GuaranteesWe like our QBs and have them signed beyond this season to deals containing little or no more guaranteed money. This gives us more flexibility to consider our options.Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles RamsSigned thru: 2026 | APY Rank: 15 | QB EPA Rank: 17/40When Stafford sought a new contract last offseason, the Rams gave him $40 million fully guaranteed, with only $4 million in guarantees after this season. That gives the team greater flexibility to move on from Stafford if some combination of age/injury/performance leads the Rams to consider other options. Stafford remains the best option now. His three game-winning drives are his most since having four in 2021.Geno Smith, Seattle SeahawksSigned thru: 2025 | APY Rank: 19 | QB EPA Rank: 23/40The way this Seahawks season has played out under new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, with the team skewing heavily toward the pass and Kenneth Walker III ranking 30th among running backs in rush yards, the focus could fall more on the overall approach than it falls on the person taking snaps from center.Whatever the case, Smith remains under contract for 2025 under terms favorable to the team, as his $24.8 million in compensation is not guaranteed. That gives the Seahawks flexibility if they decide to consider other options.Smith had 30 touchdown passes with 11 interceptions in his first season as the Seahawks’ starter (2022). He has 13 and 12, respectively, for an offense that has struggled to find consistency so far this season.5. Committed With ConcernsWe signed our QB to an expensive long-term extension but can’t feel great about it, for different reasons.Tua Tagovailoa, Miami DolphinsSigned thru: 2028 | APY Rank: 5 | QB EPA Rank: 2/40The Dolphins struggled to function when Tagovailoa was not available to them, pushing back against perceptions that the quarterback was mostly a product of coach Mike McDaniel’s scheme and the team’s elite weaponry.The team has averaged 0.09 EPA per play on offense with Tagovailoa, compared with -0.32 per play without him. That is the difference between being a top-five offense this season and being more than twice as bad as the last-ranked one (Cleveland at -0.15).Tagovailoa and the Dolphins paid a heavy price for learning more about the quarterback’s value. The concussion he suffered against Buffalo in Week 2 spurred another round of questions about his long-term health and viability as a quarterback.Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville JaguarsSigned thru: 2030 | APY Rank: 2 | QB EPA Rank: 27/40There’s little evidence Lawrence can overcome tough situations, or that the Jaguars can help him enough to ensure success, but the team still entered into a $275 million extension with him before the season, when there was no looming deadline to do so.Here’s where Lawrence ranks in EPA per pass play: 25th since 2021, 20th since 2022, 25th since 2023 and 24th this season. He’ll likely remain among the top five in average annual salary for years to come. Can he close the gap?6. Committed Until No Longer CommittedOur veteran starters could be on the way out, for different reasons.Derek Carr, New Orleans SaintsSigned thru: 2026 | APY Rank: 16 | QB EPA Rank: 9/40The Saints’ next coach will likely help decide what course the team follows at quarterback after this season. Releasing Carr could be difficult given the team’s salary-cap situation, but all options would seem to be on the table as the club sets a new course. Designating him a post-June 1 release would make the most sense if the Saints decide to cut ties.Kirk Cousins, Atlanta FalconsSigned thru: 2027 | APY Rank: 13 | QB EPA Rank: 16/40Cousins could be running out of chances to reverse a recent slide in production. How long before first-round rookie Michael Penix Jr. becomes the best option? It seems fitting that this career crossroads has Cousins returning to Minnesota against his former team in Week 14. Here’s hoping Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell is miked up during pregame, at least.Aaron Rodgers, New York JetsSigned thru: 2025 | APY Rank: 17 | QB EPA Rank: 29/40Rodgers’ contract has a $35 million option for 2025. It’s difficult to see the Jets exercising it when a franchise refresh seems appropriate and Rodgers, who just turned 41, has lost athleticism.As disappointing as this Jets season has been from a quarterback standpoint, this might be worse: The team’s 88.2 passer rating is its second-best through 12 games since 2008.7. Committed, But At What Value?Our QB has earned an extension, but recent events have raised questions about the price.Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ersSigned thru: 2025 | APY Rank: 84 | QB EPA Rank: 7/40Purdy, with less than $3 million in career earnings, has a $1.1 million salary in 2024. He’s been the NFL’s biggest bargain over the past two-plus seasons and should be in line for a big raise, but how big?Six weeks ago, the conversation revolved around whether Purdy might cash in for $60 million per year. But as the season slips away and some of Purdy’s physical limitations surface, could the 49ers decide to wait? Could they pursue more of a compromise deal, in the spirit of what Green Bay did with Love in 2023? There’s time to figure out something.8. Lots to Play For Down The Stretch With Contract Talks AheadThe veteran we signed on the cheap will command an extension if this keeps up.Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh SteelersSigned thru: 2024 | APY Rank: 63 | QB EPA Rank: 8/40The one-year, $1.2 million deal Wilson signed with the Steelers (while still collecting $37.8 million from Denver on his previous deal) ranks as the biggest bargain in the league this season.Wilson’s passing production in six starts projects to 4,706 yards with 28 touchdowns and nine interceptions over a 17-game schedule. The final five games deliver some difficult defenses, but with the Steelers all but assured a playoff berth, Wilson has a great opportunity to make Pittsburgh his longer-term home.9. Evaluating: Long RunwaysOur first-round rookies are just getting started.Jayden Daniels, Washington CommandersSigned thru: 2027 (not counting fifth-year option) | APY Rank: 24 | QB EPA Rank: 5/40This season has showcased Daniels’ dual-threat prowess along with some preexisting durability concerns, but Washington must be very happy with its selection of Daniels overall. His EPA per pass play ranks fifth through 13 starts among all rookies since 2000, per TruMedia. Matt Ryan, Robert Griffin III, Ben Roethlisberger and Prescott rank higher. Wilson, Herbert and Stroud rank sixth through eighth, respectively. That is good company for Daniels.Caleb Williams, Chicago BearsSigned thru: 2027 (not counting fifth-year option) | APY Rank: 22 | QB EPA Rank: 30/40Williams has gone from ranking among the bottom 10 in EPA per pass play under former coordinator Shane Waldron to ranking among the top 10 after three games with Thomas Brown in the role. Whether that is sustainable, the uptick has been encouraging for the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft. Who will be coaching Williams for the long term?Bo Nix, Denver BroncosSigned thru: 2027 (not counting fifth-year option) | APY Rank: 39 | QB EPA Rank: 26/40Nix has feasted on the AFC West and NFC South, combining for 15 touchdown passes with one interception in eight games, including six Denver victories. He ranks among the top 10 in a range of passing categories, including EPA per pass play, since Week 8.Drake Maye, New England PatriotsSigned thru: 2027 (not counting fifth-year option) | APY Rank: 25 | QB EPA Rank: 22/40Maye has less around him than the other first-round rookie quarterbacks, one reason the Patriots were reluctant to start him right away. He has arguably outperformed expectations given that context, shifting the focus away from him and onto what New England must do to help him in the coming offseason.10. Evaluating: Clock Is TickingWe haven’t given up on the 2023 first-round picks we benched, but there’s some urgency.Bryce Young, Carolina PanthersSigned thru: 2026 (not counting fifth-year option) | APY Rank: 23 | QB EPA Rank: 34/40Benched after only two games this season, Young has played well enough in five games since his return to renew hope for his future. The Panthers are 2-3 and averaging 21.4 offensive points per game since Young’s return. They had a 2-16 record while averaging 11.2 points per game on offense in his previous 18 starts.Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis ColtsSigned thru: 2026 (not counting fifth-year option) | APY Rank: 29 | QB EPA Rank: 31/40The Colts were much worse on offense during the two games Joe Flacco started than they were previously or since Richardson returned to the lineup for the past three games. Richardson remains a low-percentage passer capable of the spectacular but is still seeking consistency. How patient will the Colts be in developing him?11. Evaluating: Need An AlternativeOur young QB could play his way into a future with us, but it’s looking like we’ll be in the market for an upgrade.Will Levis, Tennessee TitansSigned thru: 2026 | APY Rank: 53 | QB EPA Rank: 35/40The Titans’ current coaching staff inherited Levis and could keep him but presumably would not want to bet its future on him, given the returns so far. Can Levis finish strong?Aidan O’Connell, Las Vegas RaidersSigned thru: 2026 | APY Rank: 71 | QB EPA Rank: 15/40The Raiders had O’Connell on their roster entering this season and preferred signing Gardner Minshew for $12.5 million per year. Can O’Connell play his way into their future plans over the remaining five games? His 340-yard game at Kansas City was a start.12. Thank You For Your Service (And The Future Comp Pick)We’re grateful for our QB but committed to a different one.Sam Darnold, Minnesota VikingsSigned thru: 2024 | APY Rank: 21 | QB EPA Rank: 19/40The assumption here is that Darnold has played well enough to earn an opportunity greater than what the Vikings can promise him in 2025, when first-round pick J.J. McCarthy returns from knee surgery to presumably claim the starting job.13. Likely Headed to Free Agency as a Bridge Starter/BackupThere will be a market for these veterans, but not necessarily as the undisputed starter.Jameis Winston, Cleveland BrownsSigned thru: 2024 | APY Rank: 42 | QB EPA Rank: 20/40The Browns are averaging 21.8 offensive points per game when Winston starts after averaging 13.4 when Deshaun Watson was in the lineup earlier in the season. Their rate of explosive pass plays has more than doubled from 8.4 percent with Watson to 17.8 percent with Winston.It’s possible the Browns or another team will project Winston as a starter next season. The two pick sixes Winston threw against Denver on Monday night tempered some of the recent enthusiasm.Daniel Jones, Minnesota VikingsSigned thru: 2024 | APY Rank: 90 | QB EPA Rank: 32/40Jones could fill the Darnold role for the Vikings next season if Darnold finds a better opportunity elsewhere. He could also test the market, although additional time with O’Connell in Minnesota could be good for his career longer term.14. We’re Looking For A Way OutHelp! Our quarterback could not start for any team, but we owe him more than $90 million over the next two seasons.Deshaun Watson, Cleveland BrownsSigned thru: 2026 | APY Rank: 11 | QB EPA Rank: 40/40The worst contract in NFL history isn’t getting better soon enough for the Browns. Watson, out for the season with a torn Achilles tendon, is scheduled to count $72.9 million against the cap in each of the next two seasons. Those figures could be manipulated in various ways, but Watson is getting his money regardless, unless he violates the contract in some way. |
