Enjoy the Super Bowl.

We are 8-4 in our playoff predictions.  For the Super Bowl, we expect a close game like most of the predictors in the final box below.  We can’t get over the thought that Patrick Mahomes will make some plays with his feet that Tom Brady can’t and that would result in a Chiefs victory.

Last year, the 49ers slowed down the Chiefs somewhat for a 31-20 game with a lot of last points.  The year before, Tom Brady only put 10 points on the board in New England’s victory over the Rams.  Tampa Bay’s defense is spirited with good personnel.

So we will go with a lower score than most others, and an “under” bet.  Chiefs, 23-20.

– – –

It looks like masks will be with us far into the future if the words from the White House are to be believed.

Likewise, the NFLPA wants some of 2020’s changes to be embedded into the future.

At the end of NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell’s press conference on Thursday, he was joined onstage by NFL Players Association Executive Director DeMaurice Smith for a few minutes.

The two men discussed the way that cooperation between the NFL and NFLPA in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic made the 2020 season possible because they worked together to find solutions to big problems. One of those solutions was to conduct offseason programs remotely and the fact that it didn’t result in a negative outcome on the field will lead to further discussions about how offseasons will look.

NFLPA president and Browns center JC Tretter said at the end of the regular season that the experience of this season should lead to permanent changes to the offseason schedule and said at the NFLPA’s Thursday press conference that he and others felt “physically better and mentally sharper” than they did in past years. He credited that to avoiding the “never-ending grind” of a typical year and Smith echoed those comments.

“I think that every one of these guys who have lived in a football world for a very long time saw their teams do a lot of things differently, but let’s just put differently to the side. It was smarter,” Smith said. “So the fact that you just didn’t have guys holed up in a facility for hours on end, just killing time. The fact that we are actually able to do things via teleconference and Skype and Zoom, it’s all about being smarter. At the end of the day, what will happen is we have our annual rep meetings in March. We’ll continue to talk to the players about the things that they think were a better and smarter way of playing football and I think some of those things, most of things don’t have anything to do with COVID.”

Goodell said at his press conference that it’s too early to know exactly what the offseason and 2021 season is going to look like, but said that “virtual is going to be a part of our lives” in the future. How much a part it will play is going to be a subject of debate this offseason.

NFC EAST

NEW YORK GIANTS

A month after the season ended, Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com can finally write with medium confidence that OC Jason Garrett will get another year with Joe Judge.

New York Giants offensive coordinator Jason Garrett is expected to return after a shaky season in which the team finished 31st in total offense and points scored, a source told ESPN.

Although Garrett will stay, there will be some changes to the Giants’ offensive staff, among them the possibility of internal alterations when it comes to the responsibilities of those currently on staff. Increased responsibility for quarterbacks coach Jerry Schuplinski, wide receivers coach Tyke Tolbert and tight ends coach Freddie Kitchens is possible.

In addition, the Giants are searching for a new offensive line coach, with assistant line coach Ben Wilkerson and former Houston Texans line coach Mike Devlin among those being interviewed. Tolbert is also reportedly in the running to be the Minnesota Vikings’ offensive coordinator.

This was the expected outcome with Garrett despite the Giants’ offensive struggles, especially after the coaching carousel had spun for weeks and there was no word on his future. The belief is that some stability for quarterback Daniel Jones and the offense could be valuable.

Jones has already had two offensive coordinators and systems in his first two NFL seasons.

“As far as the potential of Jason leaving, of course it makes you a little antsy,” general manager Dave Gettleman said after the season. “Just imagine, anybody, any of you guys, having your fourth editor in four years. It’s the same thing. It’s no different. We’ll adjust and adapt and do what we have to do, and obviously anything we do moving forward, Daniel is a big part of it. We’re certainly conscious of that piece, to answer your question.”

Garrett, 54, came to New York after nine seasons as the Dallas Cowboys’ head coach. But it was at the request of ownership that first-year coach Joe Judge looked at the former Giants backup quarterback to be his coordinator.

Despite Judge signing off on it, the marriage seemed arranged and wasn’t perfect in Year 1. It became evident that Garrett might not be the perfect match with Judge when offensive line coach Marc Colombo was fired midseason. Colombo and Garrett had spent years together in Dallas. Colombo wasn’t happy that Judge was bringing in veteran offensive line coach Dave DeGuglielmo as a consultant, and the situation deteriorated from there.

DeGuglielmo’s contract has since expired, and he is not expected to return, according to multiple sources.

Sources also told ESPN that Judge was very hands-on with the offense (much as he was with the offensive line) and that it seemed to create a noticeable “tension” with Garrett. That could have been because of the results. The Giants (6-10) topped 23 points just once in the final 11 games. Only the New York Jets ranked below them in points and total offense.

Jones also didn’t make the strides they were hoping to see in his second season while the offense stumbled continually. He produced just 12 touchdowns this past season but had 16 turnovers.

The Giants were also more aggressive when Kitchens stepped in to call plays while Garrett was unavailable because of a positive COVID-19 test. Judge was especially complimentary of the job Kitchens, a former offensive coordinator and head coach in Cleveland, did in Garrett’s absence.

Garrett sidestepped a question late in the season about whether he would return for a second year with the Giants.

“I’m just excited about the opportunity we have this week,” he said before the season finale against the Cowboys. “Really, I’ve just tried to stay in the moment in any position I’ve had as a player or coach in the NFL. That’s typically when you play your best and coach your best. That’s really what I’m focused on.”

Judge also didn’t seem thrilled with the effectiveness of the offensive system. He was hardly effusive with praise for Garrett when asked what he wanted to see from the offense next season. In fact, he didn’t even mention Garrett’s name.

“Well, I’m always going to look for our offense to evolve with the players we have in it. To me, the priority is getting good players in here, which I think we have, and then put them in positions where they can make plays,” he said.

Before his nine-season stint as the Cowboys’ head coach, Garrett was Dallas’ offensive coordinator. But he hadn’t called plays since 2012. The Giants’ offense also took a serious hit when star running back Saquon Barkley tore his knee in Week 2.

Barkley, along with Garrett now, also is expected back for next season.

NFC SOUTH

ATLANTA

Arthur Blank expresses confidence that both QB MATT RYAN and WR JULIO JONES will continue to play for the Falcons in 2021.

The Falcons are coming off a 4-12 season, they have a new coach and G.M., and quarterback Matt Ryan turns 36 this offseason and is slated to have a $40.9 million salary cap hit. Given those facts, it’s understandable that some have asked whether the Falcons will move on from Ryan this year.

But Falcons owner Arthur Blank says that’s not happening. Asked by Andrew Siciliano on NFL Network whether Ryan will be back, Blank said he will — and then Blank added, unprompted, that wide receiver Julio Jones will be back as well.

“I’d be shocked, completely shocked if he is not. It really has nothing to do with his contract. Matt has played at a very high level for us since 2008 when we drafted him,” Blank said. “Matt can still play at a very high level so we expect him to be a Falcon next year, fully. Same question was raised regarding Julio Jones and we expect Julio to be a Falcon next year and play at a very high level as well. . . . They’ll both be with us.”

Blank said smart franchises have transition plans, noting that the Chiefs drafted Patrick Mahomes and kept him on the bench for a year behind Alex Smith. So with the fourth overall pick, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Falcons draft Ryan’s heir apparent. But in 2021, Ryan and Jones will be in Atlanta.

TAMPA BAY

Most 44-year-olds couldn’t gain significant amounts of speed.  But QB TOM BRADY thinks he can.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

At the age of 43, and heading to his 10th Super Bowl, Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady is neither contemplating retirement nor resting on his laurels.

Instead, Brady is planning how he’s going to train this offseason to come back better at age 44. And he says he might just be a little faster when we see him in the fall, noting that NFL quarterbacks are increasingly making plays with their legs.

“I’m going to work on my speed,” Brady said. “I see those guys running around. I’ve got to make a few of those plays.”

Brady has never been much of a runner, but he finished the 2020 regular season with just six rushing yards. It’s safe to say he’ll never be Lamar Jackson, but perhaps next year he can get his rushing yardage into the double digits.

– – –

Brady on TE ROB GRONKOWSKI, who he points out didn’t miss a game in 2020.

When Rob Gronkowski announced his retirement from the Patriots, he indicated that football had worn him down both physically and mentally. When he came back to the Buccaneers for this season, he felt better than ever.

That’s the word from his longtime teammate Tom Brady, who said that Gronk has been feeling phenomenal in Tampa Bay.

“He’s super excited because he feels so good,” Brady said. “He’s played 20 games this year. I think that’s the most he’s ever played in his career. He’s one of the most unique people. Just being around him, he’s so positive. I think everybody wishes in their next life they come back as Rob just because he’s got such a great personality about him, just his way of being positive. He’s a really high achiever. He’s very competitive and I see the competitive nature, the determination. When you’re down and out, you want him with you. I think that speaks to him as a teammate, as a person and I love playing with him. I’ve known him for a long time and I’m just so proud of all of his accomplishments. He’s an amazing guy. I know for both of us, we rely on each other a lot for different things. I’ll be looking for him this Sunday, so that’s the most important thing.”

Sunday is Brady’s 10th Super Bowl, and it’s Gronkowski’s fifth. They’ve been in a lot of big games together.

NFC WEST

SEATTLE

QB RUSSELL WILSON opens up to Colin Cowherd (reported here by Curtis Crabtree ofProFootballTalk.com) on the late season woes of Seattle’s offense.

As the Seattle Seahawks try to figure out a way forward offensively after cratering in the second half of the year, quarterback Russell Wilson says he thinks one of the reasons for that dip in production was due to the offense becoming too passive.

In an interview with Colin Cowherd of FOX Sports, Wilson gave several reasons as to why the offense suddenly couldn’t move the ball or score as efficiently as it had in the first half of the year when Wilson was considered to be a front-runner for MVP. But perhaps the most interesting part of his answer was the comment about the offense becoming too passive.

“I think the thing for us, we had such an electric, amazing start at the beginning of the year. We were able to do everything. We went for it every game, every play, every possession,” Wilson said. “We hit some bumps in the road. I could have played better. I should have played better. I can do my part, too, obviously, as well. I think what happened was that we had several guys go down up front, we didn’t have our starters, necessarily, and everything else.

“But also as our defense kept continuing to play better, that’s the time for us to really take off and keep going and keep preparing at the highest level. That’s something we really wanted to be able to do throughout the rest of the season. Unfortunately, we didn’t go for it as much, I don’t think. I think we got a little bit passive. And we got to make sure that never happens again. We got to make sure we do everything we can to be playing this Sunday. That’s what it takes. We got great players, we got our best players, we got to let it go, go for it and everything else.

“I think on offense, we didn’t adjust great throughout those tough (games). We had a couple games we could have adjusted better. That was last year, and I think that ultimately this offseason is really about ‘How can I be the best version of myself?’ And across the board. Ultimately, like I said, my mindset is we should be playing today – or I should say this weekend – so I think that’s really what matters most to me. When I wake up every day, every morning, you have that itch.”

The Seahawks averaged 34.25 points per game over the first eight games of the season in compiling a 6-2 start to the year. Over their final nine games, including a playoff loss to the Los Angeles Rams, the production plummeted to just 22.8 points per game. Take out a 40-point effort against a then winless New York Jets team and the average drops to just 20.6 points per game, essentially two touchdowns a game less than they managed the first half of the year.

There could be a problem in that Wilson and head coach Pete Carroll don’t appear to view the reason for the dip the same way. While both have said they didn’t do enough to adapt to what defenses were throwing at them the second half of the year, Wilson thinks the offense throttled down. Carroll has said that he thinks they didn’t pivot quickly or effectively enough to get more balanced when teams were taking away their deep passing game with certain coverages.

“I want to see if we can run the ball more effectively to focus the play of the opponents and see if we can force them to do things like we’d like them to do more, like we have been able to do that in the past,” Carroll said after the season. “That doesn’t mean we’re going to run the ball 50 times a game. It means we need to run the ball with direction and focus and style that allows us to dictate the game.

“I mean I just, frankly, I’d like to not play against two-deep looks all season long next year. And so we have to be able to get that done. It’s not just the running game. It is the style of passes that will help us some, but we have to get after it a little bit differently. As it unfolded in the end of the season, it became really obvious. In the last four or five games, it became really obvious.”

The Seahawks did not suddenly shift to a “three yards and a cloud of dust” offense in the second half of the year. They became a relatively bad passing team. Counting all Wilson’s attempts, scrambles and sacks, Seattle was still calling pass plays at over a 60 percent rate in the second half the year. Chris Carson never had more than 16 attempts in a game all season. Only three times all year did they have more rushing attempts than passes in a game, two of which came in the first five weeks.

Wilson was completing 71 percent of his passes with 28 touchdowns and eight interceptions though the first eight games. Over the final nine, he completed just 64 percent of his attempts with 14 touchdowns and six interceptions.

The team needs to game-plan better and get better play out of its offensive line. Wilson will need to play better too.

The Seahawks fired Brian Schottenheimer after the season and hired Shane Waldron to run the unit moving forward. He will be tasked with finding the right way to move the group forward while melding Carroll’s and Wilson’s views on what needs to be fixed to get the offense back in form.

AFC WEST

KANSAS CITY

Writing at The Undefeated, Dominique Foxworth give lavish praise to OC Eric Bienemy as the primary architect of a Kansas City offense that can’t be stopped.

When Mecole Hardman muffed a punt in the first quarter of the AFC Championship Game, the Super Bowl favorites found themselves down 9-0 to the Buffalo Bills. The Kansas City Chiefs sideline was chill – except for Hardman himself. But Hardman’s teammates and coaches approached him with a message: Forget it.

“ ‘Hey, man, listen, keep playing,’ ” Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy told Hardman after the turnover. “ ‘The ball is going to come to you. And a few plays after that, he makes a hell of a play – we’re in scoring position.’ ”

Sure enough, on the next drive, Hardman caught a 3-yard pass from Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes to score a touchdown, then ripped off a 50-yard run on the drive that put the Chiefs ahead for good.

That exchange, and the way Hardman responded to it, embodies everything that Bieniemy stands for as a coach: “We have faith and belief in our guys. Just like our players have faith and trust in us,” he said. “We don’t care if they make mistakes. If something happens, you know what? S— happens in life. Keep it moving, right? You have another opportunity to correct that mistake. Let’s make sure we’re focused on that next play.”

In football and in life, our safety, success and happiness are never ours alone. All of it relies as much on the actions of our communities and teams as much as our own behavior. Never has that been more evident than now, as we prepare to watch a masked man hoist the Lombardi trophy in a quarter full stadium.

Football, more than any other sport, requires its players to rely on one another, because the roles and responsibilities are so distinct and specialized. But reliance isn’t trust. Reliance is a burden. Trust is the factor that can turn reliance from burden to boost. When someone wants you to do something, it hangs over you. When they trust that you will get it done, it gets under you. That’s the empowering trust that Bieniemy fosters between him and his players. “It is a very sensitive issue,” Bieniemy said, “but that’s why we work the way we do.”

Back in 2018, head coach Andy Reid entrusted the Chiefs’ offense to then-running backs coach Bieniemy. Shortly after, Chiefs general manager Brett Veach traded away their starting quarterback, Alex Smith, to give the job to their previous first-round pick – and set into motion one of the most outstanding offenses the NFL has ever seen.

As the Chiefs prepare for the chance to become just the ninth team to win back-to-back Super Bowls, Bieniemy’s name has been in the news – not for his playcalling, but because no NFL team is willing to trust him with a head-coaching job. (A fact that feels particularly hard to believe when you know that Reid’s previous two offensive coordinators got offers after seasons that pale compared with what the team has accomplished since Bieniemy and Mahomes took over.)

But for Bieniemy, the focus stays on his players, and the relationships he’s built: “My job is to make sure that I’m doing everything under the sun to get our guys ready and prepare to play in the world’s biggest stage come game day, to have that opportunity of becoming a back-to-back champ.

“The beauty of it is, is if teams are not going to hire me, and [instead] we’re chasing our dreams every year of chasing the championship, you know what? I’m going to choose chasing my dream.”

Bieniemy learned everything he needed to know about Mahomes in one post-draft conversation with Patrick Mahomes Sr. “If he ever steps out of line,” Mahomes Sr. said to Bieniemy, “you put hands on him. You got my blessing.”

“You know what? I have never had to do that,” Bieniemy says now, laughing. But the off-the-cuff comment meant a lot to the offensive coordinator, and speaks to what he wants to build with his players: It told Bieniemy that Mahomes Sr. trusted him. There was a built-in understanding between the two: both Black men, born just a year apart, both professional athletes in the early ’90s. It facilitated a quick connection, and Bieniemy’s relationship with Mahomes Sr.’s son didn’t take much longer to develop.

For Mahomes Jr., that relationship pays off on the sideline every week. “Every time I go to the sideline, it’s the constant communication,” he said. “Especially after timeouts.”

Asked for details, Mahomes recalls a recent example with a big payoff: “The last timeout we called before the game-winning touchdown against the Raiders.” It was Week 11, the Chiefs were down 28-31 to the Las Vegas Raiders – the only team to have beaten them in more than a year. With the ball on the Las Vegas 22 and 0:34 left in the game, the Chiefs called a timeout. They had been in an almost identical situation, just before halftime – and Mahomes threw a red zone interception.

This time, as Mahomes limped to the sideline, Bieniemy thought of how to make the most of the 30 seconds. “He’s so competitive, sometimes I just have to calm him down,” he said. Attention quickly turned to strategy: Bieniemy suggested a play. “What you think about this?” “He was like, ‘Oh, hell yeah, I got it,’ ” Bieniemy remembered. “Boom. Next play? Touchdown.”

“It just makes it easier,” Mahomes said.

Bieniemy isn’t the only one in those conversations about X’s and O’s. Reid is one of the best offensive coaches of this generation. But Bieniemy is the one Mahomes spotlights.

Working under Reid has been a valuable resume line for aspiring head coaches. It’s a promising credential, working under a master, but in Biemiemy’s case, it also seems to have led to an inference that any offensive coordinator could succeed with this team, given the combination of talent and Reid’s strategic acumen.

The idea that the offensive coordinator is just a passenger on this rocket ship seems impossible to believe, but maybe it’s true. The Chiefs have only gotten better since their previous two offensive coordinators left for head coaching jobs. So, sure, it would be crazy to believe that Bieniemy is the sole driver of this Chiefs juggernaut, that whichever team hires him will immediately become the Chiefs. Bieniemy can’t do that, and that shouldn’t be the expectation.

What he can do is connect with people and bring the best out of players and members of an organization. In other words: He can lead – and Reid agrees. “He’s been unbelievable,” Reid has said of his offensive coordinator since 2018. “I couldn’t give bigger praise for him.”

In the short phone conversation I had with Bieniemy, I understood why people from all over the Chiefs organization love him. He had a blunt charm and was intense in a way that felt authentic. For a moment, when his answer to my question about a miked-up video from 2019 sounded just like a locker room speech, he even awakened the dormant player in me: “I always talk to the players about this, each and every year: The life of an NFL season is very, very challenging. It is physically demanding, and it’s a tough mental journey, right? Throughout the season, you will be faced with a series of tests, and many great opportunities will be presented to you along the way. I always tell the guys this: If you want to help us to achieve our goals, we as a group must learn by embracing the day-to-day process. …

“There is no such thing as perfection. We all want to be perfect. But you know what? I just want our guys to play as hard as they can. To strain as much as they can because, you know why? If they’re doing that and we’re blessed with the talent, OK – we’re giving ourselves the best opportunity to win.”

When I asked Bieniemy to speak to the communication that Mahomes talked about, I was expecting him to talk about a former coach or teammate. Instead, he credited a surprising yet obvious source. “I’ve always been a people’s person, but I will say this: I’ve been married now going on 27 years,” he said. “I learned this a very long time ago: Communication is the key to any successful relationship.”

The Bieniemys never leave an issue undiscussed or unresolved. “You have to be an effective and efficient communicator,” Bieniemy said. “Because if you’re not, that’s when relationships are torn. That’s some of the things that have been destructors of NFL teams, when the communication is broken.”

It’s the same with his players, he said. For Bieniemy, coaching starts with “getting to know the person, and also being very vulnerable and allowing them to get to know me.” But before you start to think of Bieniemy as some sort of Gen-Z, everybody-gets-a-trophy coach – he is the exact opposite. “I’m always going to be upfront with guys, whether they like it or not,” he said.

Bieniemy often reminds players of the imaginary sign on the front of the building. “When you walk into that building, you got to make sure every single day that you understand the sign reads like this: ‘Hiring all applicants,’ ” he said. “So, make sure that you’re applying for a job every single day. When they walk into this building, I expect them to work a certain way.”

That’s one reason Bieniemy refuses to “test” his players. “I learned a long time ago, early in my career when I was coaching in college, the only thing that you do is frustrate yourself” that way, he said. “I don’t want to find out what they don’t know. It’s our job to make sure we’re providing them all the information that is needed to help them to be the best player.”

So the expectation from the coaches is that the players will be prepared. And in return, the players can expect that their coaches will work to give them the best plan. Because, to Bieniemy, that “hiring” sign is not meant as a threat: It is a fact of life in the NFL. As he knows as well as anyone. And they all need each other to stay on the right side of that sign.

“I’m one of them old-school guys,” Bieniemy said. “I tell these guys each and every year when new faces come into the building: I coach hard, but I coach fair. I’m going to be your biggest fan, but I’m also going to be your harshest critic.”

No one enjoys harsh criticism. But between Bieniemy and his players, there is a genuine connection and a filter of trust through which his words are received. “So my job is to make sure I’m making that connection with the people,” Bieniemy said. “Once you get to know the person, now you can reach the player better.” Because of that, Bieniemy’s harsher coaching is taken in the spirit it’s intended: “When I’m on you, I’m on you for a reason. It’s because I want you to be the best goddamn player that you can be.”

In the week of practice leading up to the Super Bowl, Bieniemy has stressed to the players living in the now, a cliché that, from most, might sound disingenuous. But from Bieniemy, who has just endured another empty head coach hiring cycle, it doesn’t sound like corny coach speak.

What hasn’t happened is no concern of Bieniemy’s and what will happen is yet to be decided. Right now, Bieniemy said, “we’re chasing our dream. So, what better way to have my time occupied? To schematically get our guys ready, and make sure that we can put our players in the best position, have the best opportunity to go out and be at their best.

“At this particular time, it’s not about me. It’s about making sure that we can go out and be a part of history and wear that ring. Be another team that has had that opportunity to repeat.”

One day at a time, one play at a time, a wholly unoriginal sentiment that would drift away out of the mouths of most. But, to Chiefs players, from the mouth of Bieniemy, those words hit with the weight of trust.

According to Foxworth, it’s all about motivation and communication.  We didn’t see a mention of strategy.

LAS VEGAS

The curious love affair between Jon Gruden and QB NATHAN PETERMAN continues.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Nathan Peterman won’t be leaving the Raiders this offseason.

The Raiders announced on Thursday that they have signed Peterman to a one-year contract. He would have become an unrestricted free agent in March if he had not agreed to a new deal with the team.

Peterman initially signed to the Raiders practice squad in December 2018 and spent the 2019 season on injured reserve. He backed up Derek Carr in 2020 after re-signing as a restricted free agent. He appeared in one game in a mop-up role and completed 3-of-5 passes for 25 yards.

Peterman entered the league as a Bills fifth-round pick in 2017. He started four of the eight games he played in his first two seasons and threw 12 interceptions and three touchdowns while completing 52.6 percent of his passes.

AFC EAST

MIAMI

Having seen him up close in 2020, QB RYAN FITZPATRICK professes belief in QB TUA TAGOVAILOA.  Kevin Patra of NFL.com:

Tua Tagovailoa believes a Year 2 leap is in the cards after struggling through his rookie campaign.

Count veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick among those who believe Tagovailoa is ready to make that type of jump.

“Everything is going to be a little more comfortable this year,” Fitzpatrick told ESPN’s Cameron Wolfe. “Playing in the league is going to be a little more familiar, your routine through the week and on road games. He’s no longer trying to figure out where the grocery store is, where he’s going to live or what car he’s going to drive. All that stuff is figured out. He can solely focus on being an NFL QB.

“To have an offseason, to have repetitions, to have some sense of continuity with [co-offensive coordinators] George Godsey and Eric Studesville in his ear calling the plays and working with him. All that stuff points to him having a much better season this year and continuing to progress as a quarterback. That’s the most important thing for him — progression.

“They drafted him in the top five for a reason, with his skill set and what he can do. There are very few people on this planet who can do that. For them to be fully bought in and believe in him, he’s going to do the same thing. He’s going to buy into what they’re coaching, and I think good results are going to come from it.”

There has been speculation outside the building that the Dolphins could follow the Arizona Cardinals’ path and move on from their first-round pick quickly. Those rumors have been rejected by the Miami brass outright. With Deshaun Watson trade gossip not slowing, those talks about Tua’s future in Miami won’t abate.

Tagovailoa didn’t experience the first-year success of draftmates Justin Herbert or Joe Burrow, pre-injury. The Dolphins QB flashed early but struggled as the season wore on with accuracy and reading defenses. Were those issues a harbinger of a career headed sideways or the product of a young, talented signal-caller who didn’t have offseason workouts, learning through the struggles?

NEW YORK JETS

Rich Cimini of ESPN.com looks at the new coaching staff of the Jets, hand-picked by new coach Robert Saleh.

New York Jets coach Robert Saleh has been on the job for three weeks, but he already has set himself apart from Adam Gase in at least one respect: coaching-staff composition.

Saleh’s staff, almost complete, is a reunion of sorts — a collection of coaching colleagues from each of his previous NFL stops. In fact, 11 of his 13 hires for key positions — coordinators and position coaches — are coaches he worked with previously. This is a common practice in the industry, but Saleh has taken it to a new level.

In most cases, familiarity is a good thing, especially for a team in transition. If nothing else, it shows Saleh was hands-on during the process, choosing his guys.

That’s noteworthy, considering the Jets were criticized in 2019 when the front office scared away head-coaching candidate Matt Rhule because it wanted to pick his staff for him. Rhule was a college coach at the time, and there were concerns about his ability to gather an NFL staff.

The front office also had input into Gase’s staff, creating an arranged marriage between him and defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, who had a big say on some of the defensive hires. In the end, Gase assembled a highly experienced group of coaches, nearly half of whom had no previous ties to him.

That dynamic no longer exists. This is the Saleh ensemble. The upside is they speak the same football language and share a similar philosophy. The downside is that it might limit different ideas.

“One of the most impressive things through the interview process regarding Robert and his staff was just his thought process on the composition of the staff and how he was thinking about different personalities and different roles,” Jets general manager Joe Douglas said. “You really walked away saying, ‘Wow, Robert has really thought this out the right way.’ I would say that was as impressive as any name that he brought up.”

Other takeaways on the new staff:

San Francisco East: Seven coaches have a connection to the 49ers, Saleh’s previous team, including five from the 2020 staff — Mike LaFleur (offensive coordinator), John Benton (offensive line/run-game coordinator), Aaron Whitecotton (defensive line), Mike Rutenberg (linebackers) and Tony Oden (senior defensive assistant/cornerbacks). New head coaches always bring along assistants from their previous team, but five is a high number.

Prior to 2020, Miles Austin (wide receivers) and Taylor Embree (running backs) worked for the Niners, overlapping with Saleh. You can bet this will be a factor in NFL free agency. Don’t be surprised if a handful of ex-Niner players wind up in New York.

Blasts from the past: Reaching back into his early coaching years, Saleh hired assistants he met with the Jacksonville Jaguars (2014-16), Seattle Seahawks (2011-13) and Houston Texans (2005-10).

From Jacksonville is Ron Middleton (tight ends). From his Seattle connections are Jeff Ulbrich (defensive coordinator) and Marquand Manuel (safeties). From his time in Houston is Greg Knapp (pass-game coordinator). Of the 13 top assistants, the only two who didn’t coach with Saleh previously are Rob Calabrese (quarterbacks) and Brant Boyer (special teams), a holdover from the past two Jets coaching regimes.

Green on offense: Saleh has a handful of first-timers on this side of the ball — a first-time playcaller (LaFleur) and three first-time position coaches (Calabrese, Embree and Austin). Basically, he’s entrusting Sam Darnold (or another quarterback) to a rookie coach in Calabrese, 30, who has only two years of quality-control experience at the NFL level. Presumably, he will lean on Knapp, a former offensive coordinator and 24-year coaching veteran.

The key, of course, is LaFleur, 34, whom Saleh referred to as “Little Mikey” in a recent interview. Saleh met LaFleur through his older brother, Green Bay Packers coach Matt LaFleur, a close friend. Saleh will oversee the entire team, but he’s essentially handing off the offense to LaFleur, who spent the past seven years learning under 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan.

“Nobody in the world knows [that style of offense] better than he does,” Saleh said of LaFleur. “[I’m] really excited about the vision that we have in place for the offensive side, and there’s no one better in the world than the people that we’ve hired to be able to do that. So, it’s going to be an exciting time for this organization.”

THIS AND THAT

TOSSING AND TURNING A PROFIT

David Perdum on the Super Bowl coin toss.

With kickoff of the Super Bowl just minutes away, the scene inside the backroom of the Las Vegas sportsbook is intense.

Bookmakers stare at their computers, and an executive paces back and forth, already sweating through his Sunday suit. Bets are pouring in; millions of dollars are at stake. It’s nonstop action.

Suddenly, the room goes silent and everyone stops to look up at the TVs. Referees, team captains and the honorary coin-flipper are gathering at midfield. Out in the sportsbook, there’s a gasp of anticipation as the coin is tossed into the air. Heads or tails to determine which team gets the ball first — and who gets to keep the money bet on the coin flip.

The coin turns end over end, bounces on the field and settles on heads. The stressed-out boss quickly asks, “How’d we do?”

An employee hastily grades the bets, takes a deep breath and replies with trepidation, “We just lost $38,000. We’re stuck 38 dimes, and the game hasn’t even started.”

The boss asks another question: “What the f—?”

The Super Bowl coin flip may be the greatest two seconds in sports betting, and the amount of money that changes hands on it is ludicrous. Out of the hundreds of betting options on the Super Bowl, from the color of sports drink dumped on the winning coach to whom the MVP thanks first in his acceptance speech, more money is riding on heads or tails than any of them.

“You put in all this work to put out all these props, come up with cross-sports and everything else,” Dave Sharapan, a longtime Las Vegas bookmaker, said. “And the coin flip prop is the most-bet-on prop of all the props, every year.”

Heads vs. tails

The Super Bowl coin flip has been on the board at Las Vegas sportsbooks for decades. Heads or tails, which team will win the toss and will that team decide to take the ball, play defense or defer to the second half — you can bet on all of it. And a lot of people do, despite being charged upward of 5 cents on the dollar in vigorish on what is essentially a 50-50 proposition. (This study from Stanford University used angular momentum vector to prove that a coin flipped and caught in the hand is biased to landing the same way it began. But the Super Bowl coin lands on the ground and often bounces, and besides, what does Stanford know, anyway?)

Vince Bohbot, on the other hand, knows everything about the actual coin used for the Super Bowl. Bohbot is an executive vice president at The Highland Mint in Melbourne, Florida. For the past 28 Super Bowls, The Highland Mint has made the coin for the opening toss.

In the 1990s, the coins were made of pure silver. Now, with the price of silver spiking, the coins feature silver plating and 24-carat gold selective plating. The coins are similar in size to a silver dollar. They weigh about an ounce and have a diameter of 33 millimeters.

This year’s coin features ocean waves running horizontally in between the team logos of the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers on one side. The Super Bowl LV logo, with the Lombardi trophy between the L and V, is on the other side. Traditionally, the side with the Lombardi trophy is designated heads. Both sides weigh practically the same, according to Bohbot.

“It’s so close; there might be a minute difference on one side or the other. It depends on the design every year,” Bohbot told ESPN. “It doesn’t appear to have affected where the coin is landing each year.”

Massive interest in flip of a coin

Betting on the coin flip is silly, of course, and the size of most wagers reflects that. Most, but not all.

As wild as it sounds, five-figure bets on the coin flip are practically a regular occurrence. And there have been even bigger.

Art Manteris, who has spent more than 40 years running Las Vegas sportsbooks, remembers one of his high rollers at the old Hilton betting $100,000 on the coin flip, only to come back just hours later to bet the other side for $200,000.

“Said he changed his mind,” Manteris, now a vice president at Station Casinos, recalled. “The change worked for him that day.”

Get it? Change. Bookmaker humor is just the best.

The bet number on the coin-flip prop is one of the first that tellers who work the betting windows for the Super Bowl memorize. They need the number to enter the bet into the computer system, something they do repeatedly on the coin flip. The coin-flip bettor rarely knows the bet number, Sharapan says.

In his time working the betting windows on Super Bowl Sunday, Sharapan has heard all types of theories from coin-flip bettors, from the tails side allegedly being heavier, to turf surfaces producing more heads than grass because of the extra bounce. Nothing, though, is cited as the reason behind a coin-flip bet more than “tails never fails.”

“We used to make a line between me and the guy or girl next to me at the counter on how many times we would hear ‘tails never fails’ during a shift,” Sharapan said. “We’d keep a tally sheet behind the counter to keep track. We would set the line at 18.5. I’d always go over.”

To irritate his coworkers and win his bet, Sharapan would ask customers who bet the coin flip if they’d ever heard of that old saying about tails. Inevitably, the bettor would blurt out, “tails never fails.”

By the way, tails sometimes fails. In the 54 Super Bowls, the coin toss has landed heads 25 times.

Coin-flip betting isn’t just an American debacle, by the way. It’s popular overseas, too.

“It’s always been a popular prop bet, be it in the U.S. or abroad,” said Andrew Mannino, a senior analyst for PointsBet, a longtime Australian bookmaker who joined the American market in recent years.

Bookmakers don’t know exactly what drives the betting interest on the coin flip, and they don’t really care. It’s nice being able to charge a 5-cent vig on a 50-50 bet, after all.

Last year, more money — a few hundred thousand dollars — was bet on the coin flip than any other prop wager at William Hill U.S. books. With the company operating in several more states this year, coin-flip betting is expected to increase significantly this year.

“Last year, we were needing ‘tails never fails’ and we got the result we wanted,” said Adam Pullen, assistant director of trading for William Hill U.S.

FanDuel wasn’t as fortunate last year and paid out $200,000 on bets on tails before the game even kicked off. There was plenty of money on heads, of course, just not as much as was riding with tails, and the $200,000 payout gives you an idea of just how much is being bet on a flip of a coin.

“I’m startled every year by the dollars,” Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill U.S., said. “They just pound it. I’m utterly amazed every year.”

MOCK DRAFT FROM LANCE ZIERLIEN

Here is a Mock from NFL.com’s draft expert:

In my first mock of the 2021 NFL Draft, which is scheduled for April 29 – May 1, I have quarterbacks going first and second overall — something we haven’t seen since Jared Goff and Carson Wentz were taken with the top two picks in the 2016 draft. Remember, this mock is a projection of where I believe players will go — not necessarily a reflection of my opinion as to where the players should go.

Note: The order of the final two spots below will be determined by the outcome of Super Bowl LV (the Buccaneers and Chiefs are ordered in this mock based on regular-season record).

1 Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence · QB

School: Clemson | Year: Junior

This pick should be set in stone as the Jaguars hit reset with a brand new face of the franchise.

2 New York Jets

Zach Wilson · QB

School: BYU | Year: Junior

If the Jets don’t love a quarterback in this spot, it will make sense to see if there are any takers for a trade. If there aren’t, starting over at QB would make sense. Wilson has significant arm talent.

3 Miami Dolphins (pick acquired from Houston)

DeVonta Smith · WR

School: Alabama | Year: Senior

It is imperative for the Dolphins to add a playmaker to pair with Tua Tagovailoa and give the offense some much-needed explosiveness.

4 Atlanta Falcons

Patrick Surtain · CB

School: Alabama | Year: Junior

Surtain is a big, long, fast cornerback with the ability to mirror and match pass routes. He can strangle the catch point and is exactly what the Falcons need as a top-tier CB1.

5 Cincinnati Bengals

Kyle Pitts · TE

School: Florida | Year: Junior

I understand the Bengals need offensive line help, but they also have the 38th overall pick and loads of cap space to address that area. Pitts has a chance to be a generational talent and a relentless nightmare for opposing defenses.

6 Philadelphia Eagles

Micah Parsons · LB

School: Penn State | Year: Junior

Parsons, who opted out of the 2020 season due to the pandemic, is scary talented with outstanding body composition, rare speed and excellent open-field tackling ability. He’ll help tighten up the Eagles’ porous linebacker corps.

7 Detroit Lions

Ja’Marr Chase · WR

School: LSU | Year: Junior

The Lions could go in a number of directions here, including cornerback or linebacker, but with almost an entire receiving corps set to hit free agency, Chase could serve as a splashy WR1 for their new QB.

8 Carolina Panthers

Rashawn Slater · OT

School: Northwestern | Year: Senior

While some believe Oregon’s Penei Sewell has the higher potential upside, Slater is a low-risk, high-yield lineman who has five-position flexibility up front, a great deal of play strength and pro polish to his game.

9 Denver Broncos

Caleb Farley · CB

School: Virginia Tech | Year: Junior (RS)

My guess is that we may see the Broncos address linebacker and maybe pass rush in free agency, which would give them the opening to add a big, talented CB like Farley to contend with the division’s explosive, young QBs.

10 Dallas Cowboys

Penei Sewell · OT

School: Oregon | Year: Junior

Tyron Smith turned 30 in December and hasn’t played 14 or more games in a season since 2015. Sewell could give the Cowboys flexibility up front, playing either right tackle or guard until it’s time to take over on the left edge for the seven-time Pro Bowler.

11 New York Giants

Jaylen Waddle · WR

School: Alabama | Year: Junior

Finding another weapon for Daniel Jones is essential, and Waddle has game-breaking explosiveness on all three levels of the field with an ability to back safeties off the line of scrimmage for Saquon Barkley.

12 San Francisco 49ers

Trey Lance · QB

School: North Dakota State | Year: Sophomore (RS)

Lance could go higher with a run on quarterbacks. If he’s available at 12th overall, he might be too enticing to pass up. His background and skill set fit perfectly within Kyle Shanahan’s offense.

13 Los Angeles Chargers

Christian Darrisaw · OT

School: Virginia Tech | Year: Junior

While he he plays with low-burn energy at times, Darrisaw’s tape can be like watching a young Russell Okung, and that is exactly what the Chargers need.

14 Minnesota Vikings

Alijah Vera-Tucker · OT

School: USC | Year: Junior (RS)

One of the most surprising developments from the 2020 college season was Vera-Tucker’s play at left tackle after transitioning from guard. Needless to say, he’ll offer guard/tackle flexibility at the next level and would be an instant upgrade on the Vikings’ O-line.

15 New England Patriots

Justin Fields · QB

School: Ohio State | Year: Junior

It’s hard to project where the QBs will land this year, as I expect grades to vary greatly by team. But Fields is a talented quarterback with big-game experience who will have a chance to compete for snaps immediately in New England.

16 Arizona Cardinals

Azeez Ojulari · Edge rusher

School: Georgia | Year: Sophomore (RS)

Finding an impactful defender up front should be one of the Cardinals’ priorities. Ojulari is twitchy and powerful and has a game that should translate well in the NFL.

17 Las Vegas Raiders

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah · LB

School: Notre Dame | Year: Junior (RS)

The Notre Dame product is one of the most exciting defenders in this draft class. He’s athletic and sticky in coverage, while possessing blazing pursuit speed and scary pass-rush potential.

18 Miami Dolphins

Gregory Rousseau · Edge rusher

School: Miami | Year: Sophomore (RS)

With just one full year of tape to his name and a good chunk of his sack production coming from an inside alignment, Rousseau might be a bit of a risk. But he is very long and has traits that GM Chris Grier and coach Brian Flores should love.

19 Washington Football Team

Elijah Moore · WR

School: Ole Miss | Year: Junior

This is a tough pick to project, as many of the elite position players at areas of need will be gone. Fortunately for Washington, Moore is flying well under the radar. He’s a very consistent, high-volume slot receiver with excellent hands and toughness.

20 Chicago Bears

Teven Jenkins · OT

School: Oklahoma State | Year: Senior (RS)

Jenkins is a rock-steady tackle with experience on both sides of the line, though he’ll likely line up at right tackle in the NFL. He plays with a nasty demeanor and has excellent hand and core strength.

21 Indianapolis Colts

Jayson Oweh · Edge rusher

School: Penn State | Year: Sophomore (RS)

The Colts could go with a cornerback here, but they covet elite length and explosiveness off the edge. Oweh might be too tempting to pass on despite his need for pass-rush polish.

22 Tennessee Titans

Kwity Paye · Edge rusher

School: Michigan | Year: Senior

Finding a pass rusher is critical for the Titans’ future success. Paye has a rare combination of size (6-foot-4, 272 pounds) and short-area quickness that, with a more focused rush plan, could cause O-linemen fits at the next level.

23  New York Jets (acquired from Seattle)

Travis Etienne · RB

School: Clemson | Year: Senior

A three-down rusher with a winning background, Etienne runs with great urgency and competitiveness. Improving the ground game could have a huge impact on the success of a young QB, if the Jets do indeed take a passer at No. 2 overall.

24  Pittsburgh Steelers

Zaven Collins · LB

School: Tulsa | Year: Junior (RS)

The Steelers need a running back, but GM Kevin Colbert doesn’t draft RBs this early. He does, however, seem to love taking linebackers in Round 1, and Collins’ rare combination of size, range and coverage will be appealing.

25  Jacksonville Jaguars (acquired from LA Rams)

Jaycee Horn · CB

School: South Carolina | Year: Junior

The son of former NFL receiver Joe Horn, Jaycee has prototypical size (6-1, 200) and length. He’s best in press coverage, but has the eye discipline and athleticism to play in any scheme.

26  Cleveland Browns

Christian Barmore · DT

School: Alabama | Year: Sophomore (RS)

The Browns need help in the secondary, but adding a talented interior rusher with the ability to play the run is a worthwhile choice.

27  Baltimore Ravens

Trevon Moehrig · S

School: TCU | Year: Junior

Moehrig is a ball-hawking safety who would represent an immediate upgrade in the Ravens’ back end. He can play high, low or over the slot, which only increases his value.

28  New Orleans Saints

Tyson Campbell · CB

School: Georgia | Year: Junior

Campbell, a former high school sprint champ, has outstanding length and long speed and exciting upside, but might need some time to gain the polish required to cover in the NFL.

29  Green Bay Packers

Landon Dickerson · OL

School: Alabama | Year: Senior (RS)

This could be a perfect fit thanks to Dickerson’s ability to play guard or center. However, the number of career injuries are mounting (suffered season-ending ligament damage in December), and his medicals will be a focus. Great leader and great fit if healthy.

30  Buffalo Bills

Najee Harris · RB

School: Alabama | Year: Senior

The Bills took a big step forward in 2020, but they need more balance in their offense. The physical three-down runner with talent as a receiver out of the backfield could immediately upgrade not just the running game but the offense overall.

31  Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jaelan Phillips · Edge rusher

School: Miami | Year: Junior (RS)

A long-limbed edge rusher with exciting athletic talent and size, Phillips would help bolster a Bucs pass rush that could lose Shaq Barrett and Ndamukong Suh to free agency. Due to a lengthy injury history, his medical reports will garner plenty of attention.

32  Kansas City Chiefs

Greg Newsome II · CB

School: Northwestern | Year: Junior

Adept in press-man and zone coverages, Newsome is a long outside corner. He has the ability to tilt contested catches in his favor on both short and deep passes.

SUPER BOWL PREDICTIONS

NFL.com has 32 “experts” make Super Bowl predicitions – 26 see a one-score game, 21 pick the Chiefs to win and everyone thinks the loser will still score 19 points.

Analyst                        Winner             Score  MVP

Brian Baldinger           Buccaneers     31-27   Devin White

Judy Battista               Chiefs              31-27   Patrick Mahomes

Jeremy Bergman        Chiefs              34-20   Patrick Mahomes

Ali Bhanpuri                 Buccaneers     27-24   Shaq Barrett

Tom Blair                    Chiefs              35-31   Patrick Mahomes

Gil Brandt                    Buccaneers     20-19   Tom Brady

Nate Burleson             Chiefs              42-35   Patrick Mahomes

Charley Casserly        Buccaneers     30-27   Tom Brady

Brooke Cersosimo      Chiefs              30-26   Patrick Mahomes

Jeffri Chadiha             Buccaneers     31-30   Tom Brady

Terrell Davis                Chiefs              38-36   Travis Kelce

Gennaro Filice           Chiefs              40-27   Patrick Mahomes

Cynthia Frelund          Chiefs              29-28   Tyrann Mathieu

Marcas Grant              Chiefs              38-21   Patrick Mahomes

DeAngelo Hall             Chiefs              34-24   Patrick Mahomes

Dan Hanzus                Buccaneers     34-31   Tom Brady

Maurice Jones-Drew  Chiefs              42-31   Patrick Mahomes

Rhett Lewis                 Buccaneers     33-31   Tom Brady

Steve Mariucci            Chiefs              30-24   Patrick Mahomes

Willie McGinest           Buccaneers     34-27   Tom Brady

Shaun O’Hara             Chiefs              37-34   Patrick Mahomes

Dan Parr                     Buccaneers     31-24   Tom Brady

Kevin Patra                 Chiefs             32-28    Patrick Mahomes

Scott Pioli                    Chiefs             38-24    Patrick Mahomes

Adam Rank                 Chiefs             35-31    Patrick Mahomes

Gregg Rosenthal         Chiefs             31-30    Patrick Mahomes

Marc Ross                  Chiefs             31-24    Patrick Mahomes

Marc Sessler               Buccaneers     39-37   Tom Brady

Nick Shook                 Chiefs              31-26   Patrick Mahomes

Steve Smith Sr.          Buccaneers     35-31   Tom Brady

Joe Thomas               Chiefs               30-27   Travis Kelce

Lance Zierlein            Chiefs               30-24   Patrick Mahomes