THE DAILY BRIEFING
AROUND THE NFL
|
The NFL has decided on Atlanta for the possible neutral site Buffalo-Kansas City NFC Championship Game – taking two outdoor teams inside. Mike Florio ofProFootballTalk.com is unhappy with the choice:
If an AFC Championship between the Bills and Chiefs had been held in Buffalo or Kansas City, it would have been played outdoors, with weather a factor.
Now? Not.
The NFL has selected Atlanta — yes, Atlanta — as the neutral site for a conference championship game between the Bills and Chiefs, if both qualify.
Weather won’t be a factor. And the game won’t be played on grass, the preferred surface of the NFL’s players.
But it could be conducive to a pinball machine of scoring, with offenses unimpeded by cold or wind or rain or snow.
There’s another factor to consider. By picking one of the various Super Bowl host cities for the AFC Championship, the NFL could be viewing this as a test run for possibly making future conference championships neutral-site games.
Regardless, this one should have been outside. In the elements.
At least the hot dogs and beer will be cheap.
|
|
NFC NORTH
|
|
CHICAGO
The Bears have hired Kevin Warren as their CEO. The last paragraph has the “Ah ha” moment:
The Chicago Bears named Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren as their president and CEO on Thursday.
Warren will replace outgoing president and CEO Ted Phillips, who announced in September that he would retire after the 2022 NFL season. He is the first president and CEO hired from outside the Bears organization and the first Black president in team history.
“Kevin is a man of integrity, respect and excellence, all of which are critical core values of the Chicago Bears, and we welcome his perspective and diverse thought to lead this storied organization,” Bears chairman George H. McCaskey said in a statement. “He is a proven leader who has many times stepped outside of his comfort zone to challenge status quo for unconventional growth and prosperity. In this role, Warren will serve in the primary leadership position of the franchise to help bring the next Super Bowl championship trophy home to Bears fans.”
Warren will oversee general manager Ryan Poles and the business operations of the club, according to a news release from the team. Poles currently reports to McCaskey, an organizational change that took place when he was hired as GM in January 2022. Previous general managers had reported to Phillips.
The Big Ten’s council of presidents and chancellors said in a statement that it will work with Warren “during this transition phase” and begin a search for a new commissioner.
Bears personnel have been told internally that Warren’s first day will be April 17, a source told ESPN’s Pete Thamel. Warren is expected to be introduced during a news conference at Halas Hall on Tuesday.
“I am honored and recognize the responsibility bestowed upon me to lead the Chicago Bears during this exciting and pivotal time for the franchise,” Warren said in a statement. “I look forward to building on the rich tradition that started with George Halas and connecting with the unique and vibrant fanbase in Chicago. I join the Chicago Bears with gratitude and drive to carry out and build upon the legacy and spirit of this founding franchise and my predecessors. This is a franchise that is respected in all of professional sports, and I am humbled to be selected as the next President & CEO of the Chicago Bears. I sincerely thank Virginia McCaskey, George McCaskey, the McCaskey family, Ted Phillips and the search team, for the responsibility and trust placed in me to lead the Chicago Bears and deliver championships to Chicago.”
Warren had been with the Big Ten since June 2019 but recently was not given a contract extension by the conference, sources told Thamel. Last summer, Warren helped expand the conference with the additions of USC and UCLA as member institutions beginning in August 2024. He also secured the Big Ten’s seven-year media rights agreement worth more than $7 billion with CBS, Fox and NBC.
His first day is April 17?
Well-connected Stewart Mandel of The Athletic has this to say on Warren’s departure from the Big Ten:
@slmandel
It seems the following people are not unhappy to see Kevin Warren leave the Big Ten:
— Big Ten ADs
— Some Big Ten prez
— Other commissioners, most of whom he alienated during CFP negotiations & realignment.
— Certain TV execs.
Just a small list.
Pat Forde of SI.com tries a more balanced approach:
Warren was involved in other recent job searches previous to landing the Bears presidency. And there has been conjecture here this week among industry leaders about another current commissioner exploring options. Does anyone want to lead this enterprise?
With Warren, there are questions of whether he ever had both feet in at the Big Ten, and/or whether he was jumping before being pushed. This much seems certain: The league’s presidents and chancellors weren’t sprinting to extend his contract, despite him positioning the conference for unprecedented wealth and geographic reach.
Warren’s tenure as Big Ten commissioner ends with a lot of strong feelings in his wake. He leaves big fans, big detractors and strong conflicting emotions around college athletics.
Warren’s supporters point to the massive developments in the summer of 2022: grabbing up the Los Angeles market in one fell swoop with the expansion to include USC and UCLA; and the subsequent whopper media-rights deal that will bring in more than $7 billion over seven years. They credit the first Black commissioner of a Power 5 conference with not just breaking a barrier, but then acting upon an ambitious vision for the future.
Warren’s detractors haven’t forgotten the ham-handed cancelation and un-cancelation of the league’s 2020 fall football season at the height of the pandemic. They also will credit others—primarily Fox—for making Big Ten expansion work. He’s been labeled arrogant by some, mistakenly thinking he could sail into college sports from an NFL background and outsmart everyone.
Warren is a charismatic one-on-one communicator who isn’t great speaking to large audiences, which might have hindered his ability to connect with the vast Big Ten constituency. He took the job at the worst possible time, at the onset of the pandemic, and endured irrational blowback from some fans during that time—including death threats that left him wary about parking his car at conference headquarters. Heading into 2022, that rocky period was the defining stretch of his commisionership.
Then Warren, Fox and the Big Ten executed the cold-blooded raid of the Pac-12, fracturing a so-called “alliance” between those two leagues and the ACC. The alliance was borne out of resistance to College Football Playoff expansion—or, perhaps more honestly, out of a fury at the SEC for grabbing Texas and Oklahoma in 2021 while playoff expansion talks were ongoing, and destabilizing the landscape.
Ultimately, Warren might have linked arms between those two leagues simply to buy time before raiding one of them. When his league got what it wanted, he reversed course and favored the expanded playoff (as did everyone, eventually). It exposed a level of shrewdness and cunning some weren’t sure Warren possessed.
In the 6 1/2 months since adding USC and UCLA, the realignment waters have calmed—but they aren’t completely still below the surface. This remains a volatile period, with several dynamics still in play. Among them:
The Pac-12 media rights deal, which was being negotiated for months in 2022, still hasn’t been announced. It’s expected to happen early in 2023, but until that happens and everyone can digest the revenue numbers, some uncertainty hovers over the league’s future.
Notre Dame, the ultimate realignment lever, will be the next big deal-maker (or deal-breaker). The expectation is that the Fighting Irish will enhance their overall revenue to the extent that they can remain independent in football, but that also will be a wait-and-see development.
The 14-school ACC, locked into an ESPN deal until 2036, continues along in an uncomfortable status quo. There has been considerable discussion about a group of schools trying to challenge the media grant-of-rights deal and force their way out, but it would take at least seven, which is a hard number to reach. If that somehow comes to pass, many industry observers believe North Carolina and Virginia would be the hottest expansion targets not named Notre Dame, possibly triggering an SEC-Big Ten turf battle to add them.
While all that simmers, the Big Ten has to get down to the business of finding a new leader. Two athletic directors within the league would seem like logical candidates: Ohio State’s Gene Smith and Illinois’s Josh Whitman. The conference already passed once on Phillips, who used to be the AD at member school Northwestern; could he get it on the rebound?
Or the league could dive back into the non-campus pool. Fox Sports president Mark Silverman, who helped guide the Big Ten Network to prominence, would be a logical choice there—especially after the two entities linked arms for the next seven years.
Whoever gets the job, he or she isn’t likely to reprise the 30-year run of former commissioner JimDelany. That kind of permanence might be gone forever in college sports, as the pace of change and search for direction intensifies.
|
|
GREEN BAY
Along with Sean McVay, QB AARON RODGERS is in Hamlet mode – to play or not to play. Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com:
Not everyone in the Green Bay Packers’ organization is obsessing over Aaron Rodgers’ decision.
At least not in the locker room, where no one knows which way the 39-year-old quarterback is leaning: retire, return or ask for a trade.
That was evident in the comments made by several of Rodgers’ teammates in the wake of Sunday’s season-ending loss to the Detroit Lions that kept the Packers out of the playoffs for the first time in four years.
Here’s a sampling:
Defensive tackle Kenny Clark: “I’m going to let him do this thing, man. He’s got his own little thoughts and everything, and just let him handle what he’s got to handle.”
Running back Aaron Jones: “That thought never even crossed my mind until you, honestly, just said it. … I hope he’s back. I can’t even process that.”
Wide receiver Allen Lazard: “I don’t know where I’m going to be at; can’t worry about somebody else.”
That’s not indifference; it’s the business of the NFL.
Clark has the Packers’ inconsistent defense to concern himself with.
Jones has a contract situation. He’s due a $7 million roster bonus in March that’s part of his $16 million pay for 2023 — which always seemed unlikely to remain in its current form when he signed his four-year, $48 million contract in 2021 — so a restructure or renegotiation is likely.
Lazard, who was in the final year of his contract, has the chance to test the market as an unrestricted free agent for the first time in his career. In relative terms, Lazard hasn’t had a big payday yet. He has made slightly more than $6 million since he entered the NFL five years ago, which isn’t much for a starting receiver.
The front office and coaching staff, however, need to know what Rodgers is thinking sooner than later. Their entire offseason plan is contingent upon whether Rodgers or 2020 first-round pick Jordan Love is their quarterback for the 2023 season.
Rodgers used the same wording earlier this week that he did after the 2021 season when asked about a timeframe for his decision.
“I’m not going to hold them hostage,” Rodgers said. “I understand [the ramifications]. We’re still in January here, March is free agency, so I just need some time to get the emotion out of it and figure out what’s best.”
Last year, he announced on March 8 his decision to return for the 2022 season. His three-year, $150 million contract extension was completed shortly thereafter. If he plays in 2023, he’s owed a $58.3 million bonus plus another $1.165 million in salary, bringing his total guaranteed money to nearly $59.5 million if he plays.
The contract limits other options. It makes it unlikely the Packers would cut him, because they would still owe him the guaranteed money for the 2023 season regardless of whether he plays.
A trade would require the other team to inherit the contract or get Rodgers to renegotiate. It also would force the Packers to carry a huge chunk of dead money ($40.3 million) on their 2023 salary cap unless a team were to agree to wait until after June 1 to make the deal, in which case the cap hit would be $15.8 million in 2023 and $24.4 million in 2024.
If Rodgers were to retire, it could be designated as a post-June 1 move to allow the dead money to be spread out over multiple cap years, just as if he were traded.
At this point, the Packers’ top football decision-makers, general manager Brian Gutekunst and coach Matt LaFleur, have publicly stated their desire for Rodgers to return. That doesn’t mean they feel the same way behind closed doors. The Packers almost certainly expressed their true desire during meetings with Rodgers this week before he was scheduled to leave for his offseason home in California.
But if it’s truly Rodgers’ decision, don’t expect anyone to try to influence it. Not even his best friends on the team.
“I’m not gonna be a voice at all,” said left tackle David Bakhtiari, who rode to practice every day with Rodgers in a golf cart that he bought for the quarterback.
“I think for him, this is his own personal journey. I’m there, obviously, if he needs anything from me, but I’m not gonna influence his decision. That’s his decision to make. If you ask me, of course, I’ve always been a person there to help do that, but I don’t wanna influence him at all. This is his life.”
Same with receiver Randall Cobb, who walked off Lambeau Field and through the tunnel on Sunday with his arm around Rodgers.
“That’s my brother, that’s the man who stood in my wedding, that’s the godfather to one of my kids,” Cobb said. “It’s way bigger than football for us. Obviously, we’ve had a lot of moments together. We’ve spent a lot of years together on this team in Green Bay here. We’ll see where life takes us.”
And this:
It looks like one coordinator is staying with the Green Bay Packers, and a former one could have a chance to return.
Packers coach Matt LaFleur simultaneously gave defensive coordinator Joe Barry a vote of confidence while he also broached the subject of a return by Nathaniel Hackett, the former Green Bay offensive coordinator who was fired as Denver Broncos coach last month less than a year into his tenure.
“I think I’ve definitely entertained all that,” LaFleur said Monday. “I think you can never have enough great coaches, and certainly you guys know how I feel about Nathaniel and the job he did here. But again, just getting started into the evaluation phase. I did talk to him after he got let go in Denver. I know that he needs some family time as well.”
|
|
NFC EAST
|
|
NEW YORK GIANTS
Brian Daboll’s secret weapon in turning around the Giants has been a very strong coaching staff. Dan Duggan in The Athletic:
Wink Martindale was in the coaches’ meeting room at Giants headquarters interviewing for the defensive coordinator position in February when he was summoned to meet with general manager Joe Schoen.
Martindale left his cellphone on the meeting room table when he stepped out. It rang, and Giants defensive backs coach Jerome Henderson couldn’t help but notice the caller ID featuring the name of a head coach from another team in the market for a defensive coordinator.
A few minutes passed and another call came from the head coach, who presumably had gotten wind Martindale was interviewing with the Giants and wanted to make his pitch before anything was finalized. When Giants head coach Brian Daboll returned to the room, Henderson made him aware of the competition to hire Martindale, who had already made a strong impression.
“I see his phone is blowing up. I told Daboll,” Henderson said. “And then it’s ringing again, and I was like, ‘You better do something quick.’”
The Giants didn’t waste any time. Daboll made an offer, Martindale accepted and neither has looked back.
Martindale is now the headliner of the all-star staff Daboll assembled in his first head-coaching job following 25 years as an assistant. Rather than rely on old friends and former colleagues, Daboll instead oversaw an innovative interview process that grew as each assistant was hired.
The coaching magic behind the NFL’s most surprising turnaround
The result is a coaching staff that helped lead the Giants back to the playoffs for the first time since 2016. Daboll and his assistants described to The Athletic how the staff came together.
Thomas McGaughey had been the Giants’ special teams coordinator since 2018, serving on the staffs of previous head coaches Pat Shurmur and Joe Judge. When Judge was fired after last season, there was no guarantee his successor would retain any assistants, so McGaughey had to explore other options.
He was offered the special teams coordinator jobs with the Chargers and Panthers and declined an interview request from the Bears, but said, “I wasn’t real fired up about (the other teams), to be honest with you because I wanted to stay here.”
McGaughey had no relationship with Daboll, who made an introductory phone call when he became a candidate for the Giants job. The night he was hired, Daboll called McGaughey. The interview lasted five minutes.
“He was like, ‘OK, you’re in front of the room, first time you meet the team: Go!,’” McGaughey said. “He stopped me halfway through and he was like, ‘Look, do you want to be here?’ I was like, ‘Yeah, I want to be here.’ It’s been great ever since.”
Daboll’s other coordinator hires were more complicated. Daboll put himself in position to land the Giants job due to his proficiency calling plays as the Bills offensive coordinator from 2018-21. But knowing how much time and energy went into preparing to call a game, Daboll decided he wanted his offensive coordinator to handle that vital duty so he could better manage the entire team.
“You just spend so much time going through situations and meeting and talking with your staff and going back and watching tape,” Daboll said. “I didn’t want to just sit in the offensive room.”
An extensive list of candidates was whittled to Chiefs quarterbacks coach/passing game coordinator Mike Kafka, Texans quarterbacks coach/passing game coordinator Pep Hamilton and Browns wide receivers coach/passing game coordinator Chad O’Shea.
Daboll and Kafka had no history aside from six months together with the Patriots during the 2013 offseason. Kafka was a backup quarterback, and Daboll was returning as tight ends coach after a series of unsuccessful OC jobs away from New England. They worked together to learn and re-learn the Patriots’ offense.
Kafka’s coaching career blossomed in Kansas City, but he knew there was always a ceiling there since head coach Andy Reid called plays. So Kafka took his first offensive coordinator interview with the Giants — he was blocked from interviewing for the Eagles’ OC position in 2020 — and the opportunity to call plays was appealing.
“I loved my time in Kansas City,” Kafka said. “Was it easy to leave? No. But I know deep down in my heart this is an opportunity to grow and put your own stamp on it.”
Daboll didn’t make him any promises during the interview process, reserving the right to reclaim play-calling duties.
“I wanted him to do it in OTAs and then we’ll revisit it,” Daboll said. “Once you call plays for a long time, you’re kind of used to doing it, so it’s kind of like watching your kid go to college. You’ve got to let them go sometime.”
Kafka passed the test in the spring and has called plays all season.
“To turn play-calling over to Kafka, that’s unparalleled,” said Daboll’s agent Bob LaMonte, who has represented many of the NFL’s top coaches over a 40-year career. “Normally ego sets in and the coach who calls the plays, which he’s at brilliant at, never turn that over.”
Defensive coordinator was a more pivotal hire considering Daboll’s expertise on offense. Initially, it seemed like that would be a simple process, as Daboll had worked with Giants DC Patrick Graham for three years in New England.
They had a strong relationship and it was expected that Graham would stay with the Giants unless he got the Vikings head coaching job. But Graham, who also interviewed for the Giants’ head coaching vacancy, surprisingly departed to become the defensive coordinator for another former Patriots assistant, Josh McDaniels, in Las Vegas.
“I was hoping he was going to stay, and he decided to go in a different direction,” Daboll said.
Graham’s abrupt exit forced Daboll to scramble for alternatives. He again cast a wide net, with Martindale, Missouri defensive coordinator Steve Wilks and Bears defensive coordinator Sean Desai emerging as the finalists who came to New Jersey for in-person interviews.
Martindale unexpectedly became available in January after 10 years with the Ravens, including the last four as one of the top defensive coordinators in the NFL. Daboll and Martindale didn’t have a personal relationship, but there was mutual respect from their matchups as opposing play callers over the years.
Martindale was playing golf in Florida when Daboll first called about the Giants’ DC job.
“I was going to take a year off to play golf because I had a year left on my contract,” Martindale said.
The opportunity to join Daboll with the Giants, who interviewed Martindale for their head coaching job in 2020, was intriguing. A Zoom interview quickly led to an in-person meeting.
“They flew me up that night after I did the Zoom,” Martindale said. “I had nothing on but golf gear. I wore golf shoes into the interview. I had no suit and tie — nothing.”
Martindale’s credentials were unmatched by the other candidates — three finishes in the top three in scoring defense in four seasons as a DC. His swagger meshed well with Daboll’s staff. And there was no questioning he was going to be in demand if the Giants dragged their feet.
Daboll didn’t hesitate, and the Giants gave Martindale a three-year contract, a year longer than the typical coordinator deal.
“Going against his system, it’s a challenging system to prepare for. Always had a lot of respect for him and how he did things,” Daboll said. “I thought Wink did a fantastic job and hit it off with all the guys.”
That Henderson and other position coaches were in the room for Martindale’s interview was part of Daboll’s collaborative hiring process. Often, a prospective coordinator may only interview with the head coach and other higher-ups, while position coaches typically only meet with the coordinator and head coach.
But Daboll involved every coach on staff with every interview, regardless of rank. There were 18 coaches in the room by the time Daboll hired Bryan Cox as assistant defensive line coach in mid-February.
“If I ever got this chance, I wanted to make it a very inclusive hiring process with the people that I do hire, making them part of it so they can provide me checks and balances,” Daboll said. “Everyone would have ownership in it. I just thought that was really important.”
Henderson, a holdover from Judge’s staff who previously worked with Daboll in Cleveland, was involved in countless interviews because he was one of the first members of the staff. And it wasn’t a passive process for the assistants.
“I would start, and I had a list of a significant amount of questions. Once I got done, then Jerome would pop on the Zoom, and he would ask it through a defensive back lens,” Daboll said. “Everybody just had free rein to jump on and ask questions. It was a pretty extensive interview that covered a lot of different areas.”
Henderson, who has been NFL assistant for five teams over the past 15 years, had never experienced that type of interview process. The rest of the staff echoed the unprecedented nature of Daboll’s methods.
“It was one of the best experiences of my coaching career,” McGaughey said. “I thought it was just genius by Dabes, having the staff having input in the guys you’re going to work with every day. I was completely blown away by the process.”
Henderson was particularly excited to interview — and learn from — Martindale, who is known for his exotic pressure packages. Henderson pulled clips from three Ravens games against top quarterbacks so Martindale could explain his approach.
“My job was to challenge him a little bit from that standpoint to create some tough questions so Daboll could hear him answer them,” Henderson said. “We pulled up those games and went through them and he did a great job of laying out his thoughts and how he thinks about defensive football.”
After some initial caution, the interviews morphed into chalk-talk sessions as coaches from various positions quizzed candidates.
“There was some guardedness, like, ‘If I tell you and then I don’t get the job …’” offensive line coach Bobby Johnson said. “I asked Kafka some questions, ‘In your protection system, if this is presented by a defense, what’s your answer?’ And he didn’t just blurt out an answer. He tested the water a little bit and then as we went down the road, it showed some trust on his part. He’d ask, ‘How would you handle it?’ I was like, ‘Here’s the issue. Here’s how I think I would handle it, but I’m also looking for new ways to handle it.’ Once that happened, it was fun because there was just this free-flowing football dialogue.”
After every round of interviews for each position, Daboll would poll the entire staff.
“We literally went around the room and voted,” tight ends coach Andy Bischoff said. “Literally, ‘Who wants (wide receivers coach Mike) Groh? Who wants so and so?’ When they were 4-4, then it was like, ‘OK, let’s re-think this, and let’s talk again.’ Or, ‘Maybe let’s sleep on this one.’ (Daboll) never really voted. He just let the staff have the conversation, which was really cool. It was really unique, really visionary in terms of hiring.”
Daboll had his own list of candidates for every position on his staff, but he also was open to suggestions from all of his assistants. That led to him hiring a number of assistants with limited past connections, including all three coordinators, Bischoff, Groh, running backs coach DeAndre Smith and defensive line coach Andre Patterson.
“Dre Patterson, who’s a really good line coach — I had no idea who Dre Patterson was,” Daboll said. “I wasn’t worried about knowing them. I wanted other perspectives. I really went as outside the box as I could to get candidates. I’m comfortable in my own skin with sitting down and talking to people and trying to make the best decision for our team.”
The egalitarian approach fostered chemistry on the staff.
“If I get a head-coaching job, I’ll do it the same way,” Martindale said. “Because what happens is, if you like a guy, and you say, ‘This is my guy,’ and then Dabes goes with him, now you have a vested interest in this guy.”
Not every assistant was foreign to Daboll. He spent two years in Cleveland with Henderson on Eric Mangini’s staff. Inside linebackers coach John Egorugwu was in Buffalo with Daboll from 2018-20. Johnson and quarterbacks coach Shea Tierney, who was also with Daboll at Alabama in 2017, came from Buffalo.
Martindale came as a package deal with outside linebackers coach Drew Wilkins, who grew into his mentor’s most trusted lieutenant during 10 years together in Baltimore.
“Wink loved Drew and thought Drew was really good at Baltimore with him,” Daboll said. “I think that’s important when you are a coordinator to at least have one person you’re familiar with because you can draw on experiences.”
Putting together a staff from such a wide range of backgrounds made for an intensive offseason. After the extensive interview process, offensive systems needed to be melded, and defensive coaches needed to learn Martindale’s schemes.
“We didn’t really have an offseason last year, which I’m not complaining about at all,” Daboll said. “From the start of it all the way through, we were (in the office) later sometimes than we are during the week during the season.”
With most wives and children not moving immediately to New Jersey, those first few months were pure football. That helped strengthen the bonds that were created during the interview process.
“We’d come in, everybody works out in the morning; we grind and get taught the offense; we go to dinner, go back to the hotel and maybe have a cocktail and do it all over again,” Smith said. “It was paradise.”
That’s exactly the feeling Daboll aimed to cultivate with his staff, knowing a strong chemistry among coaches would eventually cascade down to the players.
“When you’re bringing people in, as a leader, you’re also looking at how everybody meshes,” Daboll said. “Because just as important as players are to team chemistry, I’d say the coaches are as important and they have to set the culture and the chemistry.”
The results are impossible to dispute. Daboll took over a team that was tied for the worst record in the NFL over the previous five seasons. A salary cap mess and a depleted roster didn’t portend instant success. But the leadership of Daboll and his staff has guided the Giants out of the abyss and back to the playoffs.
“The culture here is so strong and the vibe is so different,” McGaughey said. “The players feel it. They know when the coaches are tight together and they know when the coaches aren’t tight together. I truly think the reason we’ve had the success that we’ve had is because we’re so tight-knit. Guys don’t blink because they like each other. They genuinely like each other and fight for each other. It’s just different. It really is.”
|
|
NFC WEST
|
|
ARIZONA
The Cardinals are starting with GM candidates. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:
The Cardinals’ General Manager search will continue with a pair of interviews on Friday.
Ian Rapoport of NFL Media reports that Titans director of player personnel Monti Ossenfort and Ravens director of player personnel Joe Hortiz will both be meeting with the team. The Cardinals parted ways with Steve Keim, who had been on leave at the end of the season, earlier this week.
Ossenfort and Hortiz have both interviewed for other openings in recent years. Ossenfort worked for the Patriots for 15 years before joining the Titans three years ago and Hortiz has spent 25 years working for the Ravens.
The Cardinals have also interviewed internal candidates Adrian Wilson and Quentin Harris, former Giants G.M. Jerry Reese, and Bears assistant G.M. Ian Cunningham for the opening.
|
|
LOS ANGELES RAMS
The Rams are saying the right things while Sean McVay dithers, but they really would like to get this settled. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:
Five days after the Rams concluded their 2022 season, four days after frank and candid comments from coach Sean McVay regarding his deliberations regarding whether to return for a seventh season, and three days after a report emerged that the team won’t block current assistant coaches from taking jobs with other teams, McVay hasn’t made a final decision. If he has, he hasn’t shared it with anyone.
The clock, as always, is ticking.
How long will McVay take to make his decision? The Rams need to know whether they’ll be looking for a new coach.
Would it be as simple as giving the job to defensive coordinator Raheem Morris? Or would the Rams embark on a broader search? If Sean Payton is in play, would owner Stan Kroenke want to make a play for him?
What if another one of the currently coveted coaches would be the answer? The longer McVay takes to provide his own answer, the harder it will be for the Rams to join the chase for a new coach.
That said, maybe the Rams don’t want to be part of that process, because that could only expose how undesirable their job would be, given the overall state of the roster. With years of draft picks flipped for veteran players, there’s no young nucleus of great players. Instead, the Rams are top heavy with bloated deals for aging stars who likely will be gone before things begin to turn around.
Yes, they won a Super Bowl. They also are currently in a mess that may take several years to clean up. If the job were to become available, it would be one of the least desirable in the current cycle.
For now, the question is whether it will become available. And with each passing day, the absence of an answer is becoming more conspicuous.
The easy solution does seem to be to bump Morris up to head coach and make Kliff Kingsbury the offensive coordinator while McVay takes a sabbatical.
|
|
AFC SOUTH
|
|
TENNESSEE
Here are some Titans GM candidates per Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:
The Titans will get a couple of General Manager interviews in before the start of the weekend.
Ian Rapoport of NFL Media reports that team will be meeting with Bears assistant G.M. Ian Cunningham on Friday and Adam Schefter of ESPN reports that 49ers director of player personnel Ran Carthon will also be interviewing for the job.
Cunningham interviewed with the Cardinals on Thursday. Cunningham worked for the Ravens and Eagles before joining the Bears last year.
Arizona also requested an interview with Carthon, who has been in his current job since 2017. He was the director of pro personnel with the Rams for five years and has also worked as a scout for the Falcons.
|
|
AFC EAST
|
|
NEW ENGLAND
Sometimes, the Patriots make staff changes and never tell anyone for months – the only sign being a new title in media guide.
So, the media was stunned Thursday when New England sent out a release about two things it intends to do that are not even accomplished. Zack Cox of NESN.com:
The New England Patriots’ unprecedented Thursday night statement included two headline-worthy announcements.
One was that the Patriots will begin interviewing offensive coordinator candidates next week. The team declaring that was news in itself — Bill Belichick typically is loath to reveal any details about his roster or staff until the NFL requires him to — but earlier reports had indicated that New England was making changes to its offensive coaching structure after an underwhelming 2022 season.
So, while that announcement came as a major surprise to anyone who closely follows the Patriots, its content was not a revelation.
The other half of the Patriots’ press release, however, included previously unreported information: that the team and Belichick “have begun contract extension discussions with (linebackers coach) Jerod Mayo that would keep him with the team long-term.”
That was big news.
Mayo, who’s served as a de facto co-defensive coordinator alongside Steve Belichick for the past several seasons, is a rising star in the coaching ranks. The 36-year-old former Pro Bowl linebacker interviewed for head-coaching jobs in each of the last two hiring cycles and recently received interview requests from the Cleveland Browns (for a coordinator job) and Carolina Panthers (for their head-coaching vacancy).
Multiple reports this season suggested Mayo wanted a more prominent role and was prepared to leave New England — where he played all of eight of his NFL seasons before retiring in 2016 — if he didn’t get one.
NFL Rumors: Tom Brady Rejected Request From Bucs Before Playoffs
So, what does Thursday’s statement mean for Mayo and his fellow Patriots assistants?
For starters, the Patriots’ messaging was mixed. The statement itself said the team had begun extension talks with Mayo, but both the title and the accompanying tweet read: “Patriots to extend Mayo,” seemingly signifying the sides already had reached an agreement.
The Boston Herald’s Karen Guregian later reported the Patriots and Mayo still were ironing out “some details” but that a deal was “getting closer.” The Athletic’s Jeff Howe reported the odds of that deal being finalized were “very high, barring a head coaching opportunity elsewhere.”
That suggests Mayo, who last month reasserted his desire to be an NFL head coach, still will interview with the Panthers, and for any other teams that may want to meet with him for a head-coaching gig. The Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans and Arizona Cardinals also are in the market for new head coaches.
But if Mayo doesn’t land one of those top jobs and re-ups with New England, what will his role look like in 2023? It’s hard to imagine him passing up potential coordinator positions to stick around for another season as linebackers coach, especially after those reports of his desire for professional growth.
Could the Patriots make Mayo their official DC? That’s possible. But doing so would be complicated. Mayo and Steve Belichick have jointly led the Patriots’ defense in recent years, but the latter calls their defensive plays. Would Bill Belichick elevate Mayo over his son to ensure he stays in New England, even if it means taking play-calling duties away from Steve?
The Patriots also could go with a co-defensive coordinator setup, with Mayo and Steve Belichick both officially receiving those titles. But would that be an enticing enough proposition to prevent Mayo from seeking solo DC gigs elsewhere?
Another option is to add “assistant head coach” or a similar title to Mayo’s responsibilities. There’s precedent for that in New England: Dante Scarnecchia was the Patriots’ assistant head coach/offensive line coach from 2000 through his first retirement in 2014.
Mayo also could be given some sort of assurance that he would succeed Bill Belichick whenever the legendary head coach decides to retire. Of all the assistants currently on staff, he seems like the most desirable candidate to eventually replace Belichick. An official promise is unlikely, but if team owner Robert Kraft says Mayo would be first in line once Belichick steps away, that could be enough to retain the talented and charismatic assistant.
Regardless, keeping Mayo in Foxboro would be a big win for the Patriots. He’s clearly a quality coach — the Patriots ranked in the top four in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA in each of the last two seasons — and he has the respect of the locker room at a time when that might be waning.
Dan Wetzel of YahooSports.com:
One of Bill Belichick’s closest coaching confidants, and one of the few who can stand close to him in terms of accomplishment, is Alabama’s Nick Saban.
Each hails from a Croatian family that settled in the steel and coal towns of Western Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Both are sons of coaches and of similar demeanor. Back in the early 1990s, Belichick, now 70, employed Saban, now 71, as his defensive coordinator with the Cleveland Browns.
Where Belichick has dominated the NFL (six Super Bowl titles), Saban has done the same at the college level (seven national titles).
So maybe it is Saban who can serve as an example of what Belichick should do about the fact that his New England Patriots have run stagnant — a 2-5 slide kept them out of the playoffs for the second time in three seasons. The Pats will go four years without a postseason victory.
Tom Curran of NBCSports Boston reported Wednesday that Belichick and Patriots team owner Robert Kraft held a season-ending meeting and walked away in agreement that “changes” are necessary within the organization.
Belichick once ran the most efficient and ruthless winning machine the NFL has ever seen. Since quarterback Tom Brady left for Tampa Bay in 2020, however, New England has drifted. Despite the mediocrity, Belichick has mostly kept everything in-house by promoting from within or rehiring former assistants to come back into the fold. Two of his sons are assistant coaches as well.
This past season, New England lacked a named play-caller and appeared to lean mostly on longtime Belichick assistant (and former Detroit Lions head coach) Matt Patricia to coordinate the offense, despite a history on the defensive side of the ball. It didn’t turn out well.
At Alabama, Saban has never had a slide like his former boss is mired in. However, after winning consecutive national titles in 2011 and 2012, the Tide finished 11-2 in 2013. Saban could have brushed it off as nothing; Alabama was unbeaten until its regular-season finale, after all.
Instead, he saw the game around him changing. College offenses were now wide-open. The old ball control and win-with-defense style Saban had perfected was under a measure of threat. He understood the need to modernize.
So he went out and hired the most innovative offensive coordinator he could find: Lane Kiffin, who had just been fired as the head coach of USC. This was a wild move, one that sent college football reeling. Kiffin was known for the kind of brashness and antics that seemed like a bad fit for the conservative Saban. They had no previous relationship. Clashes were predicted (and they did, indeed, come).
Saban didn’t care. He wasn’t looking for a friend. He wasn’t looking for familiarity. First, he brought Kiffin in for a week to analyze Alabama’s offense — from recruiting to play-calling to practice sessions. Sufficiently convinced, he hired Kiffin to turn the Crimson Tide offense into something as feared as the Crimson Tide defense.
“We are excited to have Lane join our staff,” Saban said at the time. “He is an outstanding and creative offensive coach … and I have always been impressed with what I saw in the games he called.”
The Bama offense didn’t get exponentially better overnight; it was already pretty good, after all. It did improve, though, as the groundwork was put in place. Kiffin was there for only three seasons, but he changed the way talented recruits looked at Alabama’s offense. He was succeeded in the years to come by Josh Gattis and Steve Sarkisian, two other college coaches with no previous ties to Saban, and then current OC Bill O’Brien, who arrived from the NFL.
Whereas Alabama won previously with quarterbacks such as Greg McElroy and A.J. McCarron — good but not elite talents — soon the Tide were drawing in Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa, Mac Jones and Bryce Young. They began throwing to DeVonta Smith, Jerry Jeudy, Calvin Ridley, John Metchie, Henry Ruggs III, Jaylen Waddle and so on.
The Tide reached the national title game six times from 2015 to 2021, winning three championships. From 2018 to 2020, their offense was ranked in the top three in the country in points per game.
Saban’s willingness to see the challenges coming and listen to outside opinions from completely different personalities has helped maintain, if not even improve, his program.
It’s a path Belichick should consider following if these “changes” that he and Kraft agree on include shaking up his coaching staff. Football doesn’t lack innovative coaching minds, especially on offense. And Belichick is still Belichick. The chance to work with a legend of that caliber makes any job in Foxborough appealing.
The question is whether he is willing to identify what he needs and then hire that. Or will he stay the course and continue to look inward?
Nothing is guaranteed here, of course. A fresh perspective might fail. But if Belichick wants proof of concept of going far from the coaching tree in an effort to disrupt things via new ideas, voices and perspectives, then following his old friend in Tuscaloosa might be instructive
|
|
THIS AND THAT
|
|
WILD CARD PICKS
The games seem to come in three categories –
THE MIS-MATCHES
The Dolphins might be able to play a good game in Buffalo with QB TUA TAGOVIALOA.
The Ravens might be able to play a good game in Cincinnati with QB LAMAR JACKSON.
But those two QBs won’t be on the field and QBs JOSH ALLEN and JOE BURROW will be.
We will go with the home teams, Buffalo and Cincinnati, in these two games – along with the rest of the world with double-digit victories expected.
HOME TEAM ADVANTAGE
The Giants at Minnesota and the Seahawks at San Francisco both with QBs DANIEL JONES and GENO SMITH intact and ready. Neither has a playoff track record, six months ago neither was respected, but both played pretty well in the here and now of 2022-23.
The 49ers are a formidable team with their own untested QB. The Vikings have their amazing record of perseverance in tight games and a QB who has previously been tested and found wanting in KIRK COUSINS.
These games will be closer, but the home teams, Minnesota and San Francisco, will post single-digit victories.
THE 4-5 GAMES
The Wild Card 1 Cowboys bring a better record and past failures into the South champions Florida home with the Buccaneers having a Super Bowl champion QB but a 8-9 record.
The Wild Card Chargers bring a better record and past failures into the South champions Florida home with the Jaguars having a Super Bowl champion coach, but just a 9-8 record.
Two interesting primetime games – and we think the road teams, the Chargers and Cowboys, will take narrow victories. But without a lot of confidence in either case.
That’s what the DB thinks. What about Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com (much abbreviated version of his opus
Let’s preview the NFL playoffs by taking an expansive look at how the bracket could play out. I’ll be using what we know about the first six matchups in the wild-card round to pick winners for this weekend’s games, examine the matchups those wins would produce in the divisional round, and so on. In the end, I’m going to pick a Super Bowl LVII matchup and a champion, and I’ll be sticking with the prediction I made on “SportsCenter” before the season.
Now, before we get started, let me be clear: This will not be right. Getting all six wild-card matchups correct would be a small miracle, let alone correctly picking all 13 games. If you’re reading this to get mad about who I pick, you’re wasting your time. Instead, I’m trying to just examine how these matchups might play out and what we would be looking for if the two teams do actually play in the real postseason bracket.
AFC wild-card weekend
(7) Miami Dolphins at (2) Buffalo Bills
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS
Spread: BUF -13 (43.5)
It seems academic to discuss this matchup if the Dolphins are starting Skylar Thompson at quarterback against the Bills. Brock Purdy has been magical for the 49ers, but his fellow rookie seventh-round pick has struggled in Miami. Thompson has played like a typical rookie late-rounder, averaging 5.1 yards per attempt and posting a 57.1% completion percentage across 105 pass attempts. Barring the truly unexpected, Thompson against this Bills defense is an unfair fight.
Prediction: Bills 27, Dolphins 7.
(6) Baltimore Ravens at (3) Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET on NBC
Spread: CIN -8.5 (40.5)
Again, the conversation here is impacted by the quarterback situation for the road team. The Ravens have been without Lamar Jackson since the 2019 MVP suffered a knee injury in December, and there’s no timetable for his return. Jackson just missed his 16th straight practice, and it’s tough to believe he would flourish without practicing or playing for more than a month.
Tyler Huntley sat out Sunday’s loss to these Bengals with a shoulder injury, but even a healthy Huntley hasn’t done much for the offense.
With a compromised quarterback situation, the Ravens’ path to winning would require a career day from running back J.K. Dobbins and something similar to what the Steelers did in Week 1 against the Bengals with Mitch Trubisky at quarterback. Pittsburgh forced five turnovers and didn’t give up the ball. Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick took a pick-six to the house and blocked the would-be winning extra point with two seconds to go. Evan McPherson missed a 29-yard field goal in overtime, and Chris Boswell hit a 53-yarder on the final snap of the game to pull off an upset for the Steelers.
A healthy Jackson would give the Ravens a shot. Baltimore beat the Bengals 19-17 in Week 5 with one of its best defensive performances of the season, holding quarterback Joe Burrow to 6.2 yards per attempt and coming up with a goal-line stand in the second half. The defense could pull off that sort of game again, but it’s difficult to imagine the offense making it to 19 points without a healthy Jackson.Prediction: Bengals 24, Ravens 7.
(5) Los Angeles Chargers vs. (4) Jacksonville Jaguars
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET on NBC
Spread: LAC -2 (47.5)
Finally, two healthy quarterbacks! Of course, it wasn’t for lack of trying, as Chargers coach Brandon Staley left Justin Herbert deep into a meaningless game with the Broncos in Week 18. Staley suggested before the contest he wanted to play his starters to preserve the momentum of their hot finish to the season, but when I looked at this premise in 2012, I found that teams that got hot in December didn’t play any better than teams with similar résumés who played their best football in September and October. The Chargers also lost outright to Denver, so whatever momentum they had might now be lost.
At the same time, while the Jaguars celebrated a division title with a win over the injury-riddled Titans, it would be hard to argue they played well. Jacksonville allowed backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs to march up and down the field, and Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars’ offense looked sloppy.
Both of these teams are better than what we saw in Week 18.
– – –
These two quarterbacks are capable of putting on a fireworks show, but it’s more likely we will see a low-scoring game that comes down to a turnover, a fourth-down decision or special teams play. The Chargers have the advantage there, as they’ve committed the fourth-fewest giveaways, while Cameron Dicker has gone 19-of-20 on field goals and 22-of-22 on extra points.
I’m tempted to suggest Lawrence follows in Joe Burrow’s footsteps as the second-year breakout quarterback who pushes his team much deeper in the playoffs than anyone expected, but Herbert and the Chargers have the slight edge here. Prediction: Chargers 13, Jaguars 10.
NFC wild-card weekend
(7) Seattle Seahawks at (2) San Francisco 49ers
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET on Fox
Spread: SF -9.5 (42.5)
This has not been a good matchup for the Seahawks, who lost twice in this series during the regular season, by a combined score of 48-20. The 49ers dominated the first game in Week 2 despite losing quarterback Trey Lance to a season-ending injury in the first quarter then led comfortably for most of the sequel before a Noah Fant touchdown brought Seattle within eight points with 3:35 left.
Defensively, the Seahawks aren’t a good fit to stop what the 49ers want to do, especially with how San Francisco’s offense is operating now
– – –
Smith goes up against a 49ers defense that intercepted 20 passes, tying them with the Steelers for the league lead. The Niners are allowing just 3.4 yards per carry, which is just behind the Titans for the league’s best mark. Seattle’s core of playmakers, Smith included, is good enough to compete with any team when it is playing well. The Seahawks might make it a closer game than the first two matchups, but they match up too poorly against what the 49ers do best. Prediction: 49ers 27, Seahawks 17.
(6) New York Giants at (3) Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET on Fox
Spread: MIN -3 (48)
The battle of “nobody believes in us!” pits two of the four teams that advanced to the postseason with a negative point differential. The Giants went 9-7-1 while being outscored by a combined six points, while the Vikings were 13-4 and outscored by three. Just one of the 53 teams that has advanced to the playoffs with a negative point differential have made it to the Super Bowl, and it’s a team near and dear to this matchup: the 2011 Giants.
Point differential might undersell how pessimistic advanced metrics are on the Vikings. DVOA pegs the Vikings as the league’s sixth-worst team. Football Outsiders has the Vikings playing worse on a snap-by-snap basis than the Broncos and Rams. Weighted DVOA, which places extra emphasis on how a team plays later in the season, actually has the Vikings sinking even deeper to 28th.
The Giants are just 2-5-1 in the second half of the season, so it would be tough to argue that their wins over the Colts and Commanders have them hitting their stride. They went 2-7 against teams with a winning record for the season and were outscored by more than a touchdown per game in those contests.
– – –
Its one saving grace might be the play of quarterback Daniel Jones, who has thrived at the end of the season. Over the final four weeks, his 78.2 QBR has been the best in football, just ahead of Patrick Mahomes. Jones has continued to yield significant value as a scrambler. While he is generating a below-average 6.8 yards per attempt on a league-low 6.0 air yards per throw, he has done an excellent job of protecting the ball.
One of the exceptions for Jones and the Giants? Their Week 16 loss to the Vikings. Jones threw an interception, tight end Daniel Bellinger lost a fumble and the Vikings blocked a punt in the fourth quarter. Those plays led to 10 critical points in a 27-24 Vikings victory. It would be tough for Minnesota coach Kevin O’Connell to count on three takeaways again, but this should be a close game. And in close games, well, you know what happens. Prediction: Vikings 26, Giants 24.
(5) Dallas Cowboys at (4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPN+
Spread: DAL -2.5 (45.5)
The Buccaneers are the fourth and final playoff team with a negative point differential, and it’s not in the single digits, either; they’ve been outscored by 45 points this season. Football Outsiders ranks them 17th in DVOA, while ESPN’s Football Power Index pegs them as the league’s 11th-best team.
On paper, this should be a mismatch, as the 12-5 Cowboys rank No. 6 in DVOA. Sunday’s ugly loss to the Commanders, though, solidified concerns that Dallas is struggling. Over the final five games, it needed a goal-line stand to beat the Texans, lost to the Jaguars, narrowly topped teams starting backup quarterbacks (Eagles and Titans) then got blown off the field by the Commanders in rookie quarterback Sam Howell’s first career start.
Dallas’ offense has been dysfunctional over that stretch. Dak Prescott has thrown 11 interceptions in the past seven games. After coming into the campaign with a career interception rate of 1.7%, he has thrown picks on 3.8% of his passes this season. The offensive line started to sputter when right tackle Terence Steele went down with a season-ending torn ACL and fell apart once center Tyler Biadasz suffered a high ankle sprain. Steele was replaced by Tyron Smith, but the longtime left tackle is playing out of position. Smith has allowed 1.5 sacks in four games, which would typically be a full season of work for the future Hall of Famer.
Over the past three weeks, the Cowboys’ running game has slowed to a trickle, running the ball 90 times for just 266 yards. The blocking is a problem, but the running backs have gained a league-low 1.0 yards after first contact over that stretch and produced minus-83 rush yards over expectation (RYOE). Tony Pollard has been slowed by a thigh injury, while Ezekiel Elliott has been slowed by time. Elliott is averaging a career-low 3.8 yards per carry while generating minus-58 RYOE, the sixth-worst total in the league this season. If Pollard doesn’t return to form, the Cowboys might turn into a CeeDee Lamb-or-bust offense.
The Bucs, meanwhile, might finally be getting back a key component of their offense if star center Ryan Jensen returns from his knee injury. Jensen hasn’t played this season, so he would unquestionably be rusty, but even a limited version would likely be an upgrade on Robert Hainsey, who was injured in Week 18.
Tom Brady finally unlocked his connection with Mike Evans in a three-touchdown day against the Panthers in Week 17. I’m not sure the Buccaneers really did anything different outside of targeting a pair of backup corners, but I do think that’s one way for them to go after the Cowboys. Dan Quinn’s defense is the sixth-best unit on short and intermediate passes, but it ranks 21st in QBR allowed when teams throw deep. Brady needs to get time to throw those passes, but he can identify those matchups before the snap and get the ball out quickly to nullify Dallas’ excellent pass rush.
I’m just not sure this is a great matchup for the Cowboys. You have to go back to Week 1 when Brady and the Bucs beat the Cowboys 19-3. The game was probably most remembered for Prescott breaking his finger, but even before that happened, Tampa Bay had shut down Dallas’ offense. The Cowboys scored at least 17 points in each of their next 15 games.
On that September day, Leonard Fournette had his best game of the season for the Bucs, carrying the ball 21 times for 127 yards. Tampa Bay’s rushing attack has been putrid since, but Jensen’s return would help the Bucs on the interior. Tampa Bay isn’t going to be great running the ball, but even a passable rushing attack might be competitive with what the Cowboys can offer.
If there’s a reason to think the Bucs might be back, it’s not the offense. It’s the defense. Todd Bowles’ unit forced just five turnovers over an 11-game span in midseason. It should be no surprise that the Bucs improved once they started forcing those turnovers again, having created six in wins over the Cardinals and Panthers. They could force a couple of more against the Cowboys and pull off a home upset. Prediction: Buccaneers 20, Cowboys 13.
Barnwell goes on to pick a Bills win over San Francisco in the Super Bowl which we will not put here.
And Jordan Dajani of CBSSports.com:
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.
Super Wild Card Weekend
(7) Seattle Seahawks at (2) San Francisco 49ers
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox)
This is going to be a rainy game, so Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell and Kenneth Walker are going to be the main weapons on offense. These division rivals, of course, played twice in the regular season, with the 49ers winning both matchups. They defeated the Seahawks in Seattle by eight points, and at home by 20 points.
This year was actually just the first time since 2011 San Francisco swept Seattle. Since 1970, there’s been 23 instances of a team going 2-0 in the regular season against an opponent, and then meeting for a third time in the playoffs. The team that went 2-0 is 14-9 in that third meeting. The Seahawks got in the postseason by the skin of their beak, and I’m not going to take them to upset the 49ers in the first round.
The pick: Seahawks +10
Projected score: 49ers 17-13
(5) Los Angeles Chargers at (4) Jacksonville Jaguars
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET (NBC)
Here’s a rematch from Week 3 of the regular season, where the Jaguars destroyed the Chargers in L.A., 38-10. Austin Ekeler received a season low in touches, while Keenan Allen did not play. Last week, Brandon Staley for some reason played his starters deep into the second half in a meaningless game against the Denver Broncos, and saw Mike Williams and Joey Bosa suffer injuries. I’m expecting both to play this weekend, but it’s unfortunate Rashawn Slater won’t be out there.
I’m not surprised the Chargers are favored in this matchup, but I’m going with the underdog. The Jaguars are juiced up, and it was almost weird to see them have a home-field advantage against the Titans in Week 18. It also stood out that the defense won the game for Jacksonville when the offense wasn’t exactly clicking on all cylinders.
The pick: Jaguars +2.5
Projected score: Jaguars 27-20
(7) Miami Dolphins at (2) Buffalo Bills
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Tua Tagovailoa is OUT. Without Tua, how could you pick the Dolphins? These two teams split the season series, with the home team winning each matchup. Miami has lost four straight playoff games, each by at least 17 points! Its the first franchise in NFL history to lose four straight playoff games by 17 points each.
The pick: Bills -13
Projected score: Bills 35-17
(6) New York Giants at (3) Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox)
This matchup probably isn’t considered a “must-watch” game on Super Wild Card Weekend, but I’m glad it worked out this way. The Giants and Vikings gave us an entertaining game in Week 16, with Greg Joseph hitting a 61-yard game-winning field goal. Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson exploded, combining for 242 receiving yards and three touchdowns. However, it’s noteworthy that Adoree’ Jackson and Xavier McKinney missed that game. They rank top two on the team in completion percentage allowed among defensive backs this season.
I’m going to take the upset here. Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley have craved this stage, and it has to be somewhat comforting to play a team you just faced off against a few weeks ago. The Minnesota defense will make the New York offense look better than it is, as the Vikings defense ranks bottom five in points per game (25.1), yards per game (388.7) and yards per play (5.9) allowed this season.
The pick: Giants +3
Projected score: Giants 24-21
(6) Baltimore Ravens at (3) Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET (NBC)
Lamar Jackson is reportedly facing an uphill battle to play on Sunday, so the Bengals will win this game. They have momentum, while the Ravens do not. Cincinnati just defeated Baltimore, 27-16, last week. I’m taking the Bengals to cover the spread as well.
The pick: Bengals -8.5
Projected score: Bengals 28-13
(5) Dallas Cowboys at (4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Tom Brady is 7-0 against the Cowboys, while Dallas is 4-5 as a playoff favorite since 1996. Additionally, Brady is 7-3 when Vegas makes the mistake of listing him as a postseason underdog. It seems like everything is lining up in the Buccaneers’ favor, but I’m going to go with who I think is the better team.
Maybe the Buccaneers found something on offense with that win over the Carolina Panthers in Week 17, but I have more faith in Tony Pollard and CeeDee Lamb. Notice I didn’t say Dak Prescott, who finished the regular season tied for the NFL lead in interceptions with Davis Mills despite missing five games.
I predict the Buccaneers jump out to a 10-0 lead, before the Cowboys control the second half and pull out a win. I fully understand not having faith in the Cowboys, but you could say the same about the Buccaneers — even if they have the greatest of all time at quarterback.
The pick: Cowboys -2.5
Projected score: Cowboys 23-20
|
|
PEYTON HILLIS
Another member of the NFL family has faced a life-threatening crisis this week. Former RB PEYTON HILLIS, like Bills S DAMAR HAMLIN, seems to have survived – although in the case of Hillis, we don’t know how much of his previous mental abilities are intact. Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:
Former NFL player Peyton Hillis has been hospitalized for the last week after a swimming accident, but he is showing improvement.
Hillis’s girlfriend, Angela Cole, wrote on Instagram that Hillis went into the water to save his children from drowning. Hillis was in intensive care and on a ventilator but now doing well enough that he no longer needs the ventilator.
“A hero,” Cole wrote. “So proud of this man and so incredibly grateful for family and this incredible hospital. Peyton is off the ventilator and is on the road to recovery. Please continue to pray for he’s still got a ways ahead of him, but thank you for all of your prayers and love and support thus far. It truly makes all the difference. Today was a good day.”
Hillis was a seventh-round draft pick of the Broncos in 2008. After two years in Denver, Hillis was traded to Cleveland, and in his first year with the Browns he exploded for 1,177 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns, plus 477 receiving yards and two more touchdowns, a spectacular season that landed him on the Madden cover. Hillis never reached those heights again in four more NFL seasons with the Browns, Chiefs and Giants. He retired after the 2014 season.
The Hillis rescue drama occurred in Pensacola.
|
|
|
