The Daily Briefing Friday, January 20, 2023

The Buffalo Bills, Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots will each play international games during the NFL’s 2023 regular season.

The Chiefs and Patriots will play in Germany. The Bills, Titans and Jaguars will play in London. The Bills and Titans are the designated home teams for two games at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, while the Jaguars will host a game at Wembley Stadium as part of their multi-year commitment to playing in the United Kingdom.

The league announced the plans on Thursday.

Opponents, dates and times for the games will be released when the full schedule is announced later this year.

There will be no international game in Mexico in 2023 due to renovations taking place in Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.

“We have a long history and we continue to grow but these international games are pivotal,” NFL executive Peter O’Reilly told the AP. “Those who have been there and experienced it, you just see the passion of the fans in these markets. This is the chance for them to experience the best of the NFL live and it’s an opportunity for year-round engagement with the fans there. There’s nothing bigger and better than an NFL game and those teams to be there in those markets and putting it on in a stadium.”

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defeated the Seattle Seahawks in Munich in the NFL’s first regular-season game in Germany this season. The destination cities for the 2023 games will be announced later this year. The NFL previously confirmed that Munich and Frankfurt will host games in Germany over the next four years.

The Chiefs and Patriots are part of the league’s International Home Marketing Area program, which sees teams secure international marketing rights in countries beyond the United State, with both sides having been awarded rights in Germany.

The Bills and Titans will play their second games in London. The Bills lost to the Jaguars in London in 2015. The Titans lost to the Chargers there in 2018. The Jaguars will play their 10th game in London.

The five international games in 2022 set record-breaking attendance and viewership with ticket demand and number of fans increasing for the league across the world. Each game was sold out with a total of 356,116 in attendance.

The Chiefs, Bills and Jaguars are playing AFC divisional playoff games this weekend.

“We could not be more excited to participate in a Germany game and introduce more of the world to Chiefs Kingdom this fall,” Chiefs chairman and CEO Clark Hunt said in a statement. “Our team and our fans have had incredible experiences in London and Mexico City as part of the International Series in the past, and we look forward to helping the NFL in its effort to continue growing the game in Germany.”

The Patriots are 3-0 in international games.

“We are thrilled to be selected to play in Germany this year,” Patriots chairman and CEO Robert Kraft said. “We are undefeated in our three previous international games, thanks in part to the outstanding support from our fans. We know that some of our most passionate fans reside in Germany, and we look forward to finally playing a game there. We know the fans will create an amazing atmosphere. We are sure it will be a memorable experience and one of the highlights of the 2023 season.”

The NFL’s expansion to 17 regular-season games gives teams a ninth home game in alternating seasons. Up to four of the teams from the conference whose teams are eligible for that ninth regular-season home game are designated to play a neutral-site international game each year.

The league continues to explore playing more games internationally and the possibility of placing a franchise abroad.

“There’s nothing imminent,” said O’Reilly, the NFL’s executive vice president, club business, major events and international. “There’s certainly complexities to work through if you’re going to have a team in Europe. That’s our responsibility to continue to look and see what’s viable. The fact we’re having this conversation is the capacity that exists in these markets. We have terrific stadiums, good governmental partners. Those are building blocks but it’s a complex process that takes times and alignment but it’s our responsibility to do the work and the analysis.”

– – –

A note from Scott Kacsmar:

@ScottKacsmar

Cowboys-49ers is the first game this postseason that we haven’t already seen this season.

Technically, we watched some 2022 Bills vs. Bengals even if it was for 9 minutes.

I think 49ers-Eagles is the most interesting new game option left the rest of the way. Maybe Bills-49ers.

– – –

No real surprises here among the choices for the Divisional Weekend referees:

Saturday, Jan. 21

AFC Divisional: Jaguars at Chiefs, 4:30 p.m. NBC PEACOCK

Shawn Hochuli is the referee, who is in his 9th season and 5th as referee. This is Hochuli’s 7th postseason assignment, including a Wild Card Playoff and 6 Divisional Playoffs.

NFC Divisional: Giants at Eagles, 8:15 p.m. FOX

Clete Blakeman is the referee, who is in his 15th season and 13th as referee. This is Blakeman’s 13th postseason assignment, including 4 Wild Card Playoffs, 5 Divisional Playoffs, 3 Conference Championships, and Super Bowl 50.

Sunday, Jan. 22

AFC Divisional: Bengals at Bills, 3:00 p.m. CBS PARA+

Carl Cheffers is the referee, who is in his 23rd season and 15th as referee. This is Cheffers’s 17th postseason assignment, including 5 Wild Card Playoffs, 7 Divisional Playoffs, 3 Conference Championships, and Super Bowls LI and LV. Both of his Super Bowl assignments were as a referee.

NFC Divisional: Cowboys at 49ers, 6:40 p.m. FOX

Bill Vinovich is the referee, who is in his 17th season and 14th as referee. This is his 17th postseason assignment, including 3 Wild Card Playoffs, 6 Divisional Playoffs, 6 Conference Championships, and Super Bowls XLIX and LIV. Both of his Super Bowl assignments were as a referee.

One of these four gets the Super Bowl.  Shaun Hochuli would get his first SB.  Cheffers (51) and (55) and Vinovich (49) and (54) have had them recently and have multiple SBs.  So we will go with Blakeman who has not been on the big stage since SB50.

As for the conference championship games – last year’s SB ref Ron Torbert has yet to be seen in this postseason.  We haven’t seen John Hussey  either – and he’s had playoff assignments in the past five years.

MINNESOTA

Veteran DC Ed Donatell was supposed to play the role Bum Phillips played for Sean McVay.  But he’s done after one season.  Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com:

The Minnesota Vikings fired defensive coordinator Ed Donatell on Thursday, an unsurprising decision even after winning 13 games under first-year coach Kevin O’Connell.

The team did not immediately name a replacement. In a statement, O’Connell said in part: “We will immediately begin our search to fill this critical role as we continue to build a championship standard for the Minnesota Vikings.”

Although they won the second-most regular season games in team history, the Vikings’ defense was one of the worst in franchise history. It finished the season ranked No. 28 in points allowed (25.1) and No. 31 in yards allowed (388.7). On Sunday, the New York Giants gashed the Vikings for 31 points and 431 yards, including five scoring drives of at least 75 yards and a total of 18 plays that gained 10 or more yards.

Donatell’s future had been in question since Week 14, when O’Connell said publicly that he was considering all options to improve the defense other than changing schemes entirely. When asked if he would make staff changes, or tap a new defensive playcaller, O’Connell said he wasn’t considering that option “as of right now.”

O’Connell hired Donatell in part for his connection to the 3-4 scheme popularized by longtime NFL defensive coach Vic Fangio, most recently the Denver Broncos’ coach from 2019-21. Donatell served as Fangio’s defensive coordinator in Denver and also coached with him at previous stops with the Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers.

O’Connell outlined his thought process shortly after hiring Donatell, saying: “What do you not like to play against? What’s the hardest defensive scheme to play against? What keeps you up at night as you game plan?”

But Donatell’s version of the scheme quickly proved to be predictable and often ineffective. It drew national scrutiny as early as Week 2, when ESPN analyst Troy Aikman called out the soft zone coverage the Vikings used as the Philadelphia Eagles moved the ball up and down the field in a 24-7 loss.

Donatell made clear that his core philosophy was to rely on his front four — especially linebackers Za’Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter — to apply enough pressure to allow the rest of the defense to sit back in zone coverage. But the Vikings’ four-man rush managed a 23.9% pressure rate during the regular season, the ninth lowest in the league, and their shell zone left far too much room for easy yards.

After the defense allowed more than 400 yards for the fifth consecutive game last month against the Detroit Lions, O’Connell directed Donatell publicly and privately to make changes. Donatell did make some tweaks to their pass rush schemes, personnel usage and coverage types, but it did not lead to significant improvement.

Overall, the Vikings were in their nickel personnel group on 80.4% of snaps, the third-highest rate in the NFL, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. They were in split safeties on 50.4% of their defensive snaps, the league’s fifth-highest rate. They used zone coverage at a rate of 79.4%, the fourth highest in the league, and they blitzed at the NFL’s 12th-lowest rate (22.1%).

CAROLINA

A delay in the interview process of Sean Payton:

The Panthers were planning to interview former Saints head coach Sean Payton for the vacant position in Carolina. For now, that meeting is on hold.

Via Joe Person of TheAthletic.com, the interview has been postponed following the death of Charlotte FC soccer player Anton Walkes in a boating accident.

Owner David Tepper, his wife Nicole, and other teams officials returned to Charlotte from New York following the incident.

Payton has drawn interest from the Panthers, Broncos, Texans, and Cardinals.

NEW ORLEANS

The Saints and DE CAMERON JORDAN have won an appeal of fines handed out by NFL Justice for “faking an injury.”  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Saints have been exonerated in their appeal of NFL discipline after defensive end Cameron Jordan was accused of faking an injury, and now Jordan is questioning the league’s process on the matter.

Jordan won the appeal of his $50,000 fine, and according to Katherine Terrell of ESPN, Saints defensive line coach Ryan Nielsen won the appeal of his $50,000 fine, head coach Dennis Allen won the appeal of his $100,000 fine and the Saints franchise won the appeal of its $350,000 fine.

Jordan told the Associated Press that the NFL reviewed his medical records during the appeals process, but that should have happened before the fines were issued.

“There should be due process before they announce a fine,” Jordan said. “They announced they’d fine me $50,000 and my team $500,000 in total before the appeal process or even investigating the situation.”

The incident in question took place during the Saints’ loss to the Buccaneers in December. After the Buccaneers were stopped on third down, their offense appeared to be rushing to the line of scrimmage to try to quickly go for it on fourth down. Jordan fell to the ground, causing an injury timeout, after which the Buccaneers punted. The league thought Jordan was faking.

But the Saints said when Jordan went to the sideline he immediately sought treatment from a trainer for a foot injury, and that Jordan went to the team facility every day that week, even though the players were off because the Saints were on their bye, to get treatment on his foot.

TAMPA BAY

Whoever is Tampa Bay’s QB next year, they will have a new OC.  Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times has the story with some detail including the clear involvement of the ruling Glazer Family in the decision:

Following a losing season and one-and-done playoff appearance despite having Tom Brady at quarterback, the Bucs are making massive changes to Todd Bowles’ coaching staff.

Offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich and three other offensive assistants have been fired as well as two defensive assistants, the Tampa Bay Times confirmed Thursday morning. Among them is receivers coach Kevin Garver.

Quarterbacks coach Clyde Christensen, 66, has decided to retire after 43 years in coaching.

The decision was made after Bowles met with members of the Glazer family, which owns the Bucs, and general manager Jason Licht.

Bowles’ entire coaching staff that he inherited from Bruce Arians arrived to work Thursday for a staff meeting, unaware of the changes.

Tampa Bay ranked last in the NFL in rushing yards and rushing attempts while suffering one of the sharpest declines on offense in league history, going from 61 touchdowns in 2021 to only 31 in 2022.

Brady attempted a career-high 66 passes in Monday night’s 31-14 loss to the Dallas Cowboys in an NFC wild-card game, two shy of the league’s playoff record and the most in his 383 career games, including playoffs.

Leftwich, 43, joined the Bucs as offensive coordinator in 2019 as part of Bruce Arians’ original coaching staff. His firing comes after a season in which the Bucs scored 198 points less than they did in 2021.

The Bucs averaged more than 30 points per game under Leftwich during the 2020 season, when they won Super Bowl 55, and 2021, when they earned the first of consecutive NFC South titles.

Even with Jameis Winston at quarterback in 2019, the Bucs averaged 28.6 points per game.

But this season, Tampa Bay struggled just to average 18.2 points during the regular season. It only twice eclipsed 30 points, including a 41-31 loss to Kansas City on Oct. 2.

The Bucs will begin an immediate search for Leftwich’s replacement. Among the candidates are Alabama offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien. The former Penn State and Houston Texans head coach was Brady’s quarterback coach and offensive coordinator for three seasons in New England.

Tampa Bay had discussions with O’Brien a year ago, when they believed Leftwich might be hired as head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Georgia offensive coordinator Todd Monken is a name to watch if he were to be willing to return to Tampa Bay in the same job he held calling plays for Dirk Koetter in 2018.

Bowles wasn’t promoted to head coach until March 30 and basically inherited Leftwich and the coaching staff from Arians, who retired to take a job as senior advisor to general manager Jason Licht.

Leftwich played quarterback with the Steelers when Arians was Pittsburgh’s offensive coordinator and was a disciple of the “No Risk It, No Biscuit” offense that featured a wide-open, deep passing game.

In his first season with the Bucs, Brady passed for 4,633 yards with 40 touchdowns and 12 interceptions while leading Tampa Bay to a Super Bowl championship.

He followed that up by leading the NFL with 5,316 passing yards, 43 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 2021.

But under Leftwich, the Bucs never could produce any balance with the run game. In the past two regular seasons, Brady led the league with 719 and 733 passing attempts.

Colin Cowherd believes that the firings are, and we would say among other things, a signal to QB TOM BRADY that they know he was unhappy with the 2022 coaching and that he can get the offensive coach of his choice (Bill O’Brien?).

Cowherd also says that with his kids with Gisele in Miami, the Dolphins sticking with their current operation and other Brady suitors like Las Vegas a long way way – that Brady might listen to a return to the Buccaneers.

You can hear it here.  This does represent a bit of a change in Cowherd’s thinking (perhaps guided by a Brady insider) in that two weeks ago he felt Brady was gone.

DENVER

QB RUSSELL WILSON knows he is broken and wants Sean Payton to fix him per Colin Cowherd:

Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson would apparently like to ride with Sean Payton as his next head coach.

That’s at least according to Colin Cowherd of FOX Sports who said during Thursday’s episode of The Heard that Wilson has reached out to Payton to make his feelings known.

“Russell Wilson has contacted Sean — legally, by the way, through channels,” Cowherd said. “He wants Sean Payton. He needs fixing. He knows he needs fixing.”

Cowherd also noted that he’s talked with his current FOX coworker Payton about the Broncos job with the understanding that many believe Wilson is “too isolated” within Denver’s building.

Wilson’s first season with the Broncos was the worst year of his career. He completed just 60.5 percent of his passes for 3,524 yards with 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, working out to a career-low 84.4 passer rating. Despite playing just 15 games, he led the league by taking 55 sacks.

Payton has also been connected to the Arizona, Carolina, and Houston openings at head coach.

KANSAS CITY

If Andy Reid can beat the Giants, he will be the third coach with 20 or more career postseason wins.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Chiefs coach Andy Reid is going for Postseason Win No. 20 tomorrow against the Jaguars.

Reid is currently third all-time among NFL head coaches with 19 postseason wins. Tom Landry is No. 2 with 20, and Bill Belichick is No. 1 with 31. So if the Chiefs win on Saturday, Reid will move into a tie for second with Landry, and only Belichick will have more.

Reid is also attempting to lead the Chiefs to the AFC Championship Game for the fifth time. Reid also led the Eagles to the NFC Championship Game five times, and getting to a 10th conference championship would also tie Landry for second all-time. Belichick has coached the Patriots to 13 AFC Championship Games.

In addition to Belichick, Landry and Reid, the all-time Top 5 head coaches in postseason wins are Don Shula with 19 and Joe Gibbs with 17.

He would be the first to do it with two teams.

BALTIMORE

OC Greg Roman is moving on.  Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com:

Greg Roman has decided to step down as the Baltimore Ravens’ offensive coordinator Thursday amid fan outrage and player frustration.

Roman had one year remaining on his deal, which was believed to be a team option.

“After visiting with Coach [John] Harbaugh and after huddling with my family, I have decided that now is the right time to move on from the Ravens so that I can explore new challenges and opportunities,” Roman said in a statement. “… I’ll truly miss Baltimore, but at the same time I am excited to attack my next opportunity with focus and passion.”

Roman’s most impressive feat was devising an outside-the-box offense around quarterback Lamar Jackson, producing the NFL’s most prolific offense in 2019. But Roman never came close to replicating that unpredictable and dominant attack.

The Ravens’ scoring had decreased in each of Roman’s four seasons as Baltimore’s playcaller, from an NFL-best 33.2 points per game in 2019 to 20.6 points per game in 2022 (19th in the league). Roman’s downfall was the inability to put together a passing game to complement a record-setting run game and his questionable playcalling in the red zone.

“Greg devised and led our offense to no fewer than 26 historical NFL and franchise achievements. He established an identity for our offense. We are grateful for Greg’s great work and abilities, and we wish him and his wonderful family the utmost happiness going forward,” Harbaugh said in a statement.

After the Ravens’ 24-17 playoff loss at the Bengals on Sunday, running back J.K. Dobbins complained about not getting any touches in the red zone in the second half, specifically on the drive when backup quarterback Tyler Huntley’s fumble on a sneak was returned 98 yards for a touchdown. Baltimore finished 30th in the red zone this season and was 1-of-4 inside the 20-yard line Sunday.

Roman faced mounting scrutiny toward the end of the season, when Baltimore struggled without the injured Jackson. The Ravens failed to score more than 17 points at any point in Jackson’s six-game absence (including in the postseason).

It was only last month that someone left handwritten flyers that read “Fire Greg Roman” scattered just outside the entrance of the Ravens’ facility. A few weeks before this, someone posted a video on Twitter in which fans were shouting obscenities at Roman while he walked from the stadium to his car after the game. “Get the f— out of here, Greg,” one fan shouted.

Baltimore finished this season ranked 16th in average overall offensive yards (338.8) — its worst in six seasons — and 28th in passing offense (178.8) in an injury-filled season. There wasn’t one time this season that Roman had his No. 1 running back (Dobbins), No. 1 wide receiver (Rashod Bateman) and All-Pro left tackle (Ronnie Stanley) available in the same game.

Under Roman’s innovative run game strategies, the Ravens became the only team in NFL history to produce more than 3,000 yards rushing in a season. Baltimore did it in back-to-back seasons, which were also Jackson’s only two full seasons (2019 and 2020). Roman put together the NFL’s best all-time rushing attack in 2019, when the Ravens ran for 3,296 yards, the most in a 16-game season in league history.

But Jackson and the passing game never progressed. Over the past two seasons, Jackson threw 33 touchdown passes and 20 interceptions. The Ravens totaled the third-fewest passing yards (194.1) in the past three seasons.

Entering his 16th NFL season, Ravens coach John Harbaugh will look for his seventh offensive coordinator. His previous ones were Cam Cameron, Jim Caldwell, Gary Kubiak, Marc Trestman, Marty Mornhinweg and Roman.

– – –

Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com says the Ravens are not panicked about their deteriorating relationship with QB LAMAR JACKSON.

The Ravens pushed back on the narrative that Lamar Jackson’s future in Baltimore is uncertain, insisting they remain confident they can sign the star quarterback to a long-term deal.

“I truly believe Lamar wants to finish his career in Baltimore,” Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta said Thursday in the team’s 45-minute, end-of-season news conference.

DeCosta spoke with Jackson on Thursday and began the media session by saying he was excited to restart contract negotiations with the QB. The sides have yet to reach an agreement after two years of contract talks, and negotiations were suspended at the start of the regular season four months ago.

Jackson, 26, finished the fifth-year option of his rookie deal. If no new deal is completed by March, Baltimore will place the franchise tag on Jackson to keep him from becoming an unrestricted free agent.

Ravens coach John Harbaugh also expressed optimism that Baltimore will get a deal completed with Jackson, saying he’s keeping “my fingers and toes crossed, and I’ll be saying my prayers.

“I have every faith that it’s going to get done. Eric wants him here. I want him here. Steve [Bisciotti, Ravens owner] wants him here, and Lamar wants to be here. So, it’s going to work out.”

Without a new deal, the Ravens can keep Jackson in Baltimore for only two more seasons with the franchise tag.

DeCosta declined to say whether the Ravens would entertain trade offers for him.

“That’s not something we’re going to talk about at this point,” DeCosta said.

Asked if Jackson would be the Ravens’ starting quarterback in Week 1 of the 2023 season, DeCosta said, “I don’t see any reason why he won’t be.”

Jackson was unable to finish his second straight season because of injuries. He missed the last six games of this season, including a 24-17 wild-card loss at the Bengals, with a sprained PCL in his left knee.

DeCosta said he doesn’t believe Jackson’s absence was related to him not having guaranteed money beyond this season.

“Lamar was hurt,” DeCosta said. “His unique style as a mobile quarterback and a freaky type of athlete out there on the field, and having a serious knee injury, makes it difficult. I know he was trying to come back.”

Harbaugh indicated Jackson would’ve had a chance to return if the Ravens had advanced farther in the playoffs.

“Lamar planned on being back,” Harbaugh said. “He was close.”

The Ravens are proceeding as if Jackson is their quarterback. Jackson will have input on the team’s next offensive coordinator — Greg Roman stepped down from that post on Thursday after four seasons as playcaller.

Harbaugh also doesn’t see a trend after Jackson has been unable to finish the past two seasons because of injuries. He said Jackson got injured on “freaky plays. … He’s a very durable player. I know that people might take issue with that,” Harbaugh said. “But I don’t believe that there’s going to be a problem going forward because I know how hard he works.”

In other news, Harbaugh spoke with running back J.K. Dobbins, who was upset about getting only 13 carries in Sunday’s playoff loss at Cincinnati. Dobbins was frustrated that he didn’t get any red zone touches in the second half, including a critical fourth-quarter drive where Tyler Huntley fumbled on a quarterback sneak.

“He made it very clear to me what he meant in terms of the way it came out and where he was coming from in the heat of battle,” Harbaugh said. “So, I was real good with that conversation and what he told me.”

Hensley lays out the options in another story:

How this situation unfolds will dominate the most critical offseason in Ravens history.

Option 1: Long-term deal

This is thought to be the least likely result, considering the sides have been in contract talks for two years. Baltimore and Jackson have two months to get a deal done before the Ravens would apply the franchise tag to keep him from becoming an unrestricted free agent.

If the Ravens tag Jackson, the sides have until an NFL-mandated deadline of July 15 to get an extension completed. If there is no deal in place by the middle of July, Jackson would have to play the season under the tag.

Before contract talks were postponed, sources told ESPN’s Chris Mortensen and Adam Schefter that Jackson turned down the Ravens’ five-year extension worth $250 million, with $133 million guaranteed at signing. That would have made Jackson the second-highest paid quarterback in terms of average per year and guaranteed money at signing.

But sources added that team officials balked at Jackson’s desire to have a fully guaranteed deal, similar to the one the Cleveland Browns gave to Deshaun Watson for five years and $230 million.

In March, Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti indicated Watson’s record deal would make it more difficult in future contract talks with quarterbacks, before adding, “But it doesn’t necessarily mean that we have to play that game, you know? We shall see.”

A deal would allow the Ravens to better upgrade the supporting cast around Jackson. His salary-cap hit on a long-term contract would likely range from $20 million to $30 million in the first year. That would be at least $15 million less than the exclusive franchise tag, which could be used on signing free agents, like a much-needed wide receiver.

But there doesn’t appear to be much hope of a long-term deal happening unless the Ravens meet Jackson’s demand for a fully guaranteed contract or Jackson backs off that stance.

Option 2: Franchise tag

This is considered the most likely result, because Baltimore won’t let Jackson hit free agency. The window to use the tag is Feb. 21 to March 7, and Baltimore can take two routes with the tag: non-exclusive or exclusive.

The non-exclusive tag is less expensive but reduces a team’s negotiating power because it allows Jackson to engage in contract talks with other teams. If Jackson signs an offer sheet with another team, the Ravens would have the right to match the offer or take two first-round picks as compensation.

The non-exclusive tag is more cap-friendly at $30 million to $35 million, but it’s probably not feasible if Baltimore believes it can get more than two first-round picks for Jackson.

It’s expected the Ravens would use the exclusive tag, which has a higher price tag but allows Baltimore to control trade talks. This is what happened last offseason with wide receiver Davante Adams, who was tagged by the Green Bay Packers then dealt to the Las Vegas Raiders 10 days later. And like what happened with Adams, the Ravens would need Jackson to sign his tender before trading him because a team can’t deal a player who isn’t under contract. So, Jackson has a say in where he will go because he can veto any trade by refusing to sign his franchise tender.

The exclusive tag is steep — projected at $45 million for Jackson — but the Ravens can set their asking price if teams are interested in acquiring Jackson and Baltimore is interested in dealing him. The issue for the Ravens is they have a little over $40 million in salary-cap space, and Baltimore needs to be under the cap at the start of the new league year (March 15).

In order to get Jackson’s exclusive tag under the cap, Baltimore would be forced to create space by releasing or negotiating pay cuts with the likes of defensive end Calais Campbell ($7 million in cap savings if cut), running back Gus Edwards ($4.4 million) and safety Chuck Clark ($3.6 million). The Ravens would still have little cap room to address holes on the roster with Jackson on the exclusive tag.

By using the tag, the Ravens might see less of Jackson than even last offseason. Jackson only reported to mandatory minicamp in June last year, missing the voluntary workouts in May and June for the first time in his five-year career. If Jackson doesn’t sign the franchise tender this year, he is technically not under contract and is not required to attend any offseason practices in the spring or training camp. Most players eventually play under the tag, but then-Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell sat out the 2018 season to protest the tag.

It’s rare for teams to use the tag on a franchise quarterback. In the previous 10 offseasons, only two have been given the tag: Kirk Cousins (2016 and 2017), who was with Washington at the time, and the Dallas Cowboys’ Dak Prescott (2020 and 2021), according to ESPN Stats & Information. Prescott eventually signed a long-term extension with the Cowboys, while Cousins hit free agency and signed a landmark deal with the Minnesota Vikings.

Option 3: Trade

The mere suggestion of trading Jackson would have raised eyebrows before the season.

In March, before Watson’s deal, Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta said Jackson was a player who could help Baltimore win multiple Super Bowls. In September, coach John Harbaugh said, “He’s going to be playing quarterback here for a long time.”

But Jackson failed to finish the season for a second straight year because of injuries. He has been sidelined for 10 of Baltimore’s past 22 games (including playoffs).

And if the Ravens are convinced they can’t reach a deal with Jackson, they would have to consider trading him either this offseason or next. It’s difficult to believe Baltimore would let Jackson play the next two seasons under the tag, hit free agency in 2025 and be content with getting a third-round compensatory pick in return.

It’s unknown how much draft capital Baltimore could accrue by dealing Jackson. Last year, the Seattle Seahawks received two first-round picks and two second-rounders from the Denver Broncos for then-33-year-old Russell Wilson. The market value should be much higher for Jackson, who turned 26 earlier this month.

Houston traded Watson and a 2024 sixth-round pick to the Browns in exchange for first-round picks in 2022, 2023 and 2024; a third-round pick in 2022; and a fourth-round pick in 2024.

For what it’s worth, neither the Broncos nor the Browns got a positive return on investment in the first year after their huge QB deals. Wilson struggled all season — his 37.0 QBR ranked 27th — while the Broncos won just five games and fired first-year coach Nathaniel Hackett. Watson played just six games after serving a suspension for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy by committing sexual assault, as defined by the NFL, on massage therapists. He threw seven touchdowns and five interceptions and finished with a 38.3 QBR.

Trading Jackson would represent an unprecedented move in the NFL. There have been nine trades involving NFL MVP quarterbacks — from Roman Gabriel in 1969 to Matt Ryan last season — and none was dealt when under the age of 30.

Jackson’s teammates aren’t receptive to seeing him go elsewhere this offseason.

“All I know is that I want Lamar to be playing here with me as long as I’m playing,” Ravens left tackle Ronnie Stanley said. “I have full faith that they’re going to work something out.”

CINCINNATI

The Bengals voted against the change in the rules that could see next week’s AFC Conference Championship Game in Atlanta. Michael David Smith ofProFootballTalk.com:

But the rules weren’t changed in a way that would have benefitted them Sunday and they are heading to Buffalo.

After the NFL canceled the regular-season game between the Bills and Bengals following Damar Hamlin‘s medical emergency, concessions were made that potentially helped the Ravens and the Bills.

For the Ravens, they were told that if they finished a half-game behind the Bengals in the standings and then faced the Bengals in the wild card round of the playoffs, a coin toss would determine whether that game would be played in Baltimore or Cincinnati. The thinking was that the Bengals might have lost that Bills game, and if so that would have deprived the Ravens of home-field advantage against the Bengals in the playoffs, so it was only fair to accommodate the Ravens. (The coin toss ended up not being necessary because the Bengals beat the Ravens in the regular-season finale.)

For Buffalo, they will get to play the AFC Championship Game on a neutral field, rather than in Kansas City, if the Bills and Chiefs both win this week. The thinking was that the Bills might have won that game against the Bengals, and if they had they would have earned home-field advantage ahead of the Chiefs, so it was only fair to accommodate them.

But no accommodation was made for the Bengals. If the Bengals had ended up winning the canceled game, which they led 7-3 in the first quarter at the time it was canceled, this weekend’s Bills-Bengals game would be played in Cincinnati. Because it was canceled, it’s being played in Buffalo.

Why not a neutral field for Bengals-Bills? Troy Vincent, the NFL’s executive vice president of football operations says that was under consideration but ultimately not proposed.

“There was some discussion,” Vincent said, via the Buffalo News, “but membership thought it was best for [only] the championship game to be at a neutral site.”

That answer won’t satisfy the Bengals, who voted against the NFL’s decision to change the rules for playoff home-field advantage. A neutral site or a coin flip just as easily could have been the method to determine Bengals-Bills home field, but the NFL simply decided to play the game in Buffalo, to the detriment of the Bengals.

Cleveland would have been a great neutral site for this game.

More from John Breech of CBSSports.com:

The NFL got a lot of things right in the aftermath of the frightening Damar Hamlin incident, but one thing the league got wrong was its decision to modify the AFC playoffs.

If you’re going to make a drastic change to the postseason, you want to make sure it’s fair to everyone, but the NFL apparently forgot that the Bengals exist because the playoff changes definitely weren’t fair to them.

Back on Jan. 6, the league’s 32 owners voted on two new postseason rules that mostly impacted just four teams (Chiefs, Bills, Bengals, Ravens). Of those four teams, only one got the short end of the stick: The Bengals.

It seems that a few owners realized that the new rules weren’t fair, which might explain why the proposal only passed by ONE vote. It needed 24 votes to pass and it got 25 (According to NBC Sports, the Bengals, Bears and Dolphins voted against it while the Chiefs, Bills, Raiders and Chargers all abstained).

Here’s a look at what the NFL got wrong:

Bengals get left out

Due to the cancellation, the Bills lost control of possibly getting the No. 1 seed in the AFC, so the NFL made up for that by giving them a chance to earn a neutral-site game if they made it to the AFC Championship. For Baltimore, the Ravens lost the chance of possibly winning the AFC North title, so the NFL made up for that by giving them a chance of hosting a wild-card round playoff game by adding a coin-flip provision that the Bengals were absolutely against.

For the Bengals, they lost control of possibly getting the No. 2 seed, so the NFL made up for that by giving them … nothing.

It’s not exactly fair and the league clearly knew it wasn’t fair, because the NFL actually had a LENGTHY discussion about putting a possible Bengals-Bills game at a neutral site, according to Rich McKay, who happens to be the chairman of the competition committee.

“Yes, there was (consideration for a Buffalo-Cincinnati neutral site),” McKay said on Jan. 6, via USA Today. “That was discussed at length on the call amongst ownership.”

So the NFL knew it was unfair and went through with the original proposal anyway. The league was willing to change its rules for the wild-card round (Ravens) and AFC Championship (neutral site), but it decided not to do anything about the divisional round, which is why the third-seeded Bengals are now playing in Buffalo this weekend.

As for the Chiefs, they had nothing to complain about because the Bills-Bengals cancellation essentially handed them the No. 1 seed and the first-round bye in the AFC.

NFL accounts for scheduling inequities, but not all of them

When the NFL decided to change the rules, Roger Goodell mentioned that one thing the league took into consideration was competitive inequity. Since the Bengals and Bills played the same amount of games, the NFL chose not to add a provision that would have given the Bengals a chance to earn a neutral-site game.

“This is a focused approach that will only affect four teams, and directly address the potential for competitive inequity resulting from 30 teams playing 17 games and two playing 16 games,” Goodell said.

Mike North, the NFL’s vice president of broadcast planning, aka the guy in charge of making the schedule, echoed the sentiments.

“The fact that Buffalo and Cincy never got played, they’re going to have a different number of games played relative to Kansas City,” North said. “But when it comes to Buffalo and Cincinnati playing each other potentially in the divisional round of the playoffs, they have played the same number of games — they’ve both played 16 games. So there wasn’t really a conversation about a coin flip relative to the host site.”

The problem with that comment is that the Bengals and Bills didn’t have an equitable schedule. Yes, they played the same amount of games, but the Bengals played nine road games this year while the Bills only played eight. Visiting teams won just .437 of their games this year, so playing one less road game is definitely an advantage, especially when you consider the road game the Bills didn’t play would have arguably been their toughest one of the season.

There are always inequities thrown into every NFL schedule — like international games — but those are voted upon and agreed to by every team before the season. In this instance, the NFL came up with a rule on the fly and enforced it even though not every team agreed with it.

What the NFL’s proposal ended up doing

On the Bills’ end, they didn’t get a completely fair shake, but the NFL did essentially hand them their own version of home-field advantage: If the Bills make it to the Super Bowl, they won’t have had to play a single road game: They got to host the Dolphins in the wild-card round, they host the Bengals in the divisional round, and if they make it to the AFC title game, they either get to host the Jaguars or play a neutral-site game against the Chiefs.

On the Bengals’ end, the cancellation and playoff changes gave them a division title that came with none of the perks of winning a division title because they weren’t even guaranteed a home game thanks to the NFL’s coin-toss provision. By adding that, the Bengals were forced to play their starters in Week 18. That’s notable, because they ended up losing a key player (right guard Alex Cappa) to injury.

The coin-toss provision was so absurd that Joe Mixon mocked it after scoring a touchdown against the Ravens in Week 18.

After getting hit with a fine of more than $13,000, Mixon challenged Roger Goodell to a coin toss to see who should pay it. Goodell did not respond.

Anyway, if the NFL had NOT changed anything at all and stuck with the rules that were on the book, everything would have been determined by winning percentage. In that case, the Bengals would still currently be the three-seed, but they would have been able to rest their starters in Week 18, which means the injury to Cappa likely doesn’t happen.

The NFL doesn’t change the rules often, but when it does, it always seems to have a negative impact on the Bengals. In what can only be described as the weirdest twist ever, the last time the league made a major rule change in the playoffs came during the 1988 season when the NFL changed the rules on the Bengals just before Cincinnati was about to play Buffalo in the AFC title game.

(the Bengals were denied the ability to run their no-huddle offense)

The bottom line here is that the Bengals have the deck stacked against them this year and if they end up making another Super Bowl run, it will be even more impressive than the one they made last year.

INDIANAPOLIS

Why did Josh McDaniels back out of the Colts job?  Is this true?

@dandakich

My sources inside the colts GREAT

Got this today ⬇️

“McDaniel’s wife made him pull the plug after having Irsay in their home in Massachusetts & observing his odd behavior. Behavior that included being in the McDaniel’s family bathroom for a very long & awkward period of time.”

JACKSONVILLE

Scott Kacsmar with a note on how stagnant Mike Tomlin, Sean Payton and John Harbaurgh have been lately, although we put it here in JACKSONVILLE:

@ScottKacsmar

Playoff wins since 2013 for select head coaches

Doug Pederson – 5

Zac Taylor – 4

Sean Payton – 4

Mike Tomlin – 3

John Harbaugh – 2

BUFFALO

An update on S DEMAR HAMLIN from Coley Harvey of ESPN.com:

While Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin has started making great strides in his recovery from cardiac arrest earlier this month, he still has a long way to go in his recovery, his family spokesman told ESPN on Thursday night.

In a statement, Hamlin’s longtime friend and business partner, Jordon Rooney, said: “Despite being out of the hospital, Damar still has a lengthy recovery. Damar still requires oxygen and is having his heart monitored regularly. He has visited with the team a few times but he still gets winded very easily.

“He’s upbeat and positive and ready to continue to overcome this.”

Like members of Hamlin’s family, Rooney has been at the defensive back’s bedside both in hospitals and at Hamlin’s home since the cardiac arrest occurred in a game against the Bengals on Jan. 2 in Cincinnati.

His statement came one day after Bills coach Sean McDermott told reporters Hamlin had been at the team facility “almost daily,” visiting his teammates and coaches Tuesday and Wednesday.

“It’s limited, just overall,” McDermott said of what Hamlin has been doing. “But he comes in and really just started really today or yesterday and just trying to get back to a little bit of a routine and just get himself acclimated again and taking it one step, one baby step at a time here.”

Hamlin has not been participating in team meetings but is “dipping his toe back in here and, you know, getting on the road to just getting back to himself,” McDermott said.

Hamlin did not attend the team’s home win over the Miami Dolphins to start the playoffs, but he was watching remotely. The 24-year-old first visited the team Saturday at its walk-through before the game, with his parents, Mario and Nina, and his brother, Damir.

Earlier Thursday, Bengals receiver Tee Higgins said he hoped to see Hamlin at some point this weekend, when the Bengals visit the Bills for Sunday’s AFC divisional round game. Higgins was being tackled by Hamlin on the play nearly three weeks ago when the Bills safety was injured.

“I’m pretty sure we’re just going to chop it up, laughs and giggles and just be happy to see him,” Higgins said.

MIAMI

The Dolphins have fired DC Josh Boyer, who was a holdover from the regime of Brian Flores.  Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.com:

The Dolphins fired defensive coordinator Josh Boyer after four seasons with the franchise, the last three as defensive coordinator, the team announced Thursday.

In addition to Boyer, the Dolphins also fired safeties coach Steve Gregory, outside linebackers coach Ty McKenzie and assistant linebackers coach Steve Ferentz.

“I am grateful for Josh’s contributions this year and throughout his tenure with the Dolphins,” coach Mike McDaniel said in a statement. “The defense made strides through the season, so coming to this decision was not easy, but ultimately I feel it is in the best long-term interests of the Miami Dolphins and the continued growth of our players and team.”

The Dolphins sustained several season-ending injuries to key starters this season, including cornerbacks Byron Jones and Nik Needham, safety Brandon Jones and defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah. To jump-start their depleted defense, they traded for Pro Bowl linebacker Bradley Chubb in November, signing him to a five-year, $110 million contract days after acquiring him.

While Miami owned the league’s fourth-best run defense, it also ranked 21st in defensive expected points added, 22nd in sacks per pass attempt, and 24th in points allowed per game and third-down percentage. A defense that ranked in the top 10 in takeaways in each of the previous two seasons struggled to create turnovers in 2022, finishing with just 14 takeaways — tied for the second fewest in the NFL.

Boyer was retained on staff after the Dolphins fired then-coach Brian Flores after the 2021 season with the hope that his unit could retain its productivity from the second half of last season, when it led the NFL in defensive EPA.

Boyer first came to Miami in 2019 under Flores. Before his arrival in South Florida, Boyer spent 12 years with the New England Patriots as a defensive assistant, defensive backs coach and cornerbacks coach.

“You learn that when something’s not broke, [you don’t fix it],” McDaniel told ESPN in February last year. “There’s also relationships with players that come into it, there’s the scheme itself, and then there’s the human relationships. There’s a good amount of time that I spent with Josh before I made that decision. All of those things contribute and then relying on the people that hired me that were in the building with him. This is not something that you just all of a sudden say, ‘Just keep him, I don’t feel like looking into stuff.’ It’s a calculated decision that’s very informed — and I think the proof is in the pudding. That’s a top-10 defense last year that I would not want to play against.

“If you can’t beat ’em, join ’em.”

The Dolphins’ opening at defensive coordinator should be an attractive position, with players like Xavien Howard, Jevon Holland, Christian Wilkins, Jaelan Phillips and Chubb all under contract for at least next season.

THIS AND THAT

SEAN PAYTON

Just as Tony Romo blew up the pay scale for lead NFL TV analysts, Sean Payton is expected to do that for head coaches.  Mike Florio:

It’s being reported as news that Sean Payton wants $20 million to $25 million per year as part of his next coaching job. But it’s really not news. It’s a given.

Once it became obvious last year that Payton to the Dolphins was a behind-the-scenes done deal that became derailed by the Brian Flores lawsuit, it was reported that the Dolphins would have paid him $100 million, on either a five-year or four-year deal. Which would have resulted in an average of $20 million or $25 million per year.

It would have been interesting to see whether Payton would have reduced his expectations to coach the Chargers, given the presence of quarterback Justin Herbert. But that one isn’t happening, unless Payton sits out 2023 and the Chargers make a change in 2024.

Sitting out 2023 would be very expensive to Payton, if someone is ready to pay him $20 million to $25 million per year right now.

While that sounds like a lot, here’s the item we posted on December 1, 2021: “The full extent of coaching pay isn’t widely known, because plenty of teams used related businesses to funnel extra cash to top coaches. Since there’s no salary cap, no internal rules are being broken. The practice would become relevant only if, for example, entry-level coaches ever tried to claim in court that the 32 separate businesses that make up the NFL are colluding to hold down the wages paid to head coaches.”

Some believe collusion happens when it comes to coaching pay. If the full extent of coaching salaries were available over the past 50 years, chances are that the rate at which coaching pay has increases would be far less than the rate at which player pay and total revenue have mushroomed.

There’s no salary cap for coaches. There’s also no salary floor, no spending minimum. NFL teams have generally done a good job of avoiding bidding wars for coaches, with most teams willing to hold the line — like the Giants did three years ago when the Panthers overspent for Matt Rhule.

It could get interesting this year, if the Broncos and Panthers end up in a tug of war for Payton. They are the wealthiest two ownership groups, and the Wal-Mart mega-billionaires who bought the Denver franchise have far more cash that Panthers owner David Tepper and his $17 billion net worth.

Our guess? The Broncos, sensitive to the fact that they’re the newest members of Club Oligarch, won’t blow the curve so quickly. That would make Tepper the most likely to be the one to bridge the gap between what the best coaches earn and what the best players make by paying Payton more than $20 million per year.

Tepper paid more than $20 million combined for quarterbacks Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield in 2022. Dollar for dollar, that cash would be much better invested in an accomplished coach like Sean Payton.

THIS WEEK’S PICKS

We went 4-2 last week, missing with the Jaguars and Giants.

In the Divisionals, we think all four games, even Jacksonville at Kansas City will be good games.  We are going with the Eagles, 49ers and Chiefs prevailing at home and the Bengals, unfairly placed on the road, rising up in Buffalo to deny us a neutral site AFC Championship Game.

People who know more than the DB talk to Jeff Howe of The Athletic:

This weekend’s NFL divisional round playoff schedule might just have the matchups to one-up last weekend’s thrilling wild-card slate.

The Chiefs and Eagles are coming off their byes with a chance to validate their No. 1 seeds, but they’re each taking on a pair of foes — the Jaguars and Giants — who have exceeded expectations and proven to be tough outs.

“These are four great matchups,” an assistant coach observed. “All four games could go either way.”

Last week, The Athletic anonymously polled coaches and executives to make their wild-card picks, and they teamed up to accurately forecast five of the six matchups, with the Giants’ upset of the Vikings as the outlier.

It’s time to bring them back for another vote — two executives and three assistant coaches. They were each granted anonymity so they could offer their candid opinions. Here’s how they see the weekend shaking out.

No. 1 Chiefs (14-3) vs. No. 4 Jaguars (9-8, 1-0)

Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. Saturday.

Expert picks: Chiefs 5, Jaguars 0

One voter kept the logic very straightforward.

“Patrick Mahomes,” an executive said.

Make no mistake, the panelists respect what the Jaguars have been doing, but they aren’t about to doubt the top-seeded Chiefs.

Two coaches actually echoed one another: “Too much firepower.”

One also pointed toward Chiefs coach Andy Reid’s famous ability to game plan for an extra week.

“They will play fast and confident,” the coach said.

The Jaguars have won eight of their past 10 games — the Chiefs handed them one of those two losses, 27-17 at Arrowhead in Week 10 — including big comebacks against the Raiders (17 points), Ravens (9 points), Cowboys (10 points), Titans (10 points) and Chargers (27 points).

Quarterback Trevor Lawrence opened the wild-card victory against the Chargers with interceptions on four of six possessions. He had a 0.0 passer rating through seven series before lighting it up in the third-biggest comeback in playoff history.

“If Jacksonville starts fast, it could be a game,” one coach observed with a sentiment the Jaguars would like to put into practice.

“The Jaguars are certainly growing and heading in the right direction,” an executive said. “But Arrowhead, Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, that’s a big deal to overcome. (Jaguars head coach) Doug Pederson is a savvy play caller. Trevor Lawrence can’t make the same mistakes as he did in the first half against the Chargers. The Jaguars definitely have the edge rushing talent to disrupt Mahomes.”

The overwhelming tally isn’t a slight on the Jaguars. It’s merely respect for the Chiefs.

“Arguably the best team in football,” an executive said.

No. 1 Eagles (14-3) vs. No. 6 Giants (9-7-1, 1-0)

Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. Saturday.

Expert picks: Eagles 4, Giants 1

This was almost unanimous — until one of the executives talked themselves out of the Eagles and into the Giants.

“(Giants quarterback) Daniel Jones showed more lately and against the Vikings than he had earlier in the season,” the executive said. (Giants coach Brian) Daboll will keep the Giants balanced, and the great equalizer is the Eagles might not be as healthy. If the Giants are able to establish the run and get an early lead, it’ll put more pressure on (Eagles QB Jalen) Hurts and his injured shoulder.”

Hurts missed two games in Weeks 16-17 due to a right shoulder sprain, but he was finally removed from the injury report this week.

All five voters believed it would be a close game.

“It will be closer than people think,” another executive said. “The Giants will make it interesting, but the Eagles receivers have the advantage over the Giants defensive backs.”

The Eagles have won three in a row against the Giants, including a 48-22 victory in Week 14 and a 22-16 win against many Giants backups in Week 18. Hurts was 20-of-35 for 229 yards and an interception along with nine runs for 13 yards in his return from injury in that Week 18 game.

“The Eagles are tough,” a coach said. “But it’s hard to beat a team three times (in one season), and the Giants wouldn’t surprise me if they showed up with an upset.”

Jones was terrific in his playoff debut against the Vikings, completing 24 of 35 passes for 301 yards and two touchdowns along with 78 rushing yards. But the Vikings defense allowed the fourth most points and second most total yards in the league while the Eagles allowed the eighth fewest points, second fewest yards and the fewest passing yards in the regular season.

The Eagles, behind Hurts’ breakout campaign, had the third-highest-scoring offense this season.

“The Eagles offense will come through in the end,” a coach said.

No. 2 Bills (13-3, 1-0) vs. No. 3 Bengals (12-4, 1-0)

Kickoff: 3 p.m. Sunday.

Expert picks: Bills 3, Bengals 2

The Bills and Bengals will square off after their Week 17 game was canceled when Bills safety Damar Hamlin went into cardiac arrest on the field.

The Bengals, who have won 13 of their last 15 games, had a 7-3 lead in the first quarter when the game was initially suspended. One of the voters gave the Bengals the advantage due to the quarterbacks.

Even against elite Bills D, Bengals’ biggest advantage will be colored red

“The Bengals have won nine straight,” a coach said. “Joe Burrow is a little more clutch than Josh Allen.”

The Bills’ turnovers are surely a concern. They’ve given it away three times in each of their last three games, and the Bengals have 11 takeaways in their past four games.

The Bills’ 27 turnovers in the regular season were the third most in the NFL and four more than any team still standing. Allen’s 14 interceptions were tied for the third most in the league.

“I think the Bills are holding on tight and have had too many close calls lately with letting teams hang around,” said a coach who picked the Bengals.

The Bills shockingly had to escape with a wild-card victory against the Dolphins, clinging to a 34-31 win in the closing moments. The Dolphins, who were starting third-string QB Skylar Thompson, had lost five in a row before sneaking into the playoffs with an 11-6 win against the Jets in Week 18.

“Maybe that was their wakeup call,” said an executive who picked the Bills. “Allen has to play within himself. The Bills aren’t generating the same amount of pressure since (linebacker) Von Miller went down.”

The Bengals have the second-longest winning streak in the league, and Burrow was hot enough down the stretch to make a push for his first MVP. But even with all of these factors being considered, the panel leaned toward Buffalo.

“If you just watching the wild-card games, I would take the Bengals,” an executive said. “But the Bills will win a very close one late. The Bills defense is very sound and will eliminate the big plays.”

No. 4 49ers (13-4, 1-0) vs. No. 5 Cowboys (12-5, 1-0)

Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. Sunday.

Expert picks: 49ers 3, Cowboys 2

Crank up some 20th-century nostalgia.

The Cowboys are 5-3 in playoff matchups with the 49ers, although the Niners knocked them out last year, 23-17. The other seven matchups happened long before 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy was even born.

Purdy put up massive numbers in the playoff win against the Seahawks, completing 18 of 30 passes for 332 yards and three touchdowns plus a rushing score. The Niners averaged a league-best 33.6 points since Purdy’s first start in Week 14, then hung 41 points last week to race away from the Seahawks.

However, the rookie did miss some early throws in his playoff debut, and that stuck out to an executive who picked the Cowboys.

“The Cowboys have the ability to generate the type of pressure that can make Purdy look like a rookie and make mistakes,” the executive said. “It’s going to come down to whether Brock takes care of the football.”

Purdy has thrown only two interceptions in his six starts. While he has absolutely played very well, 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan deserves a lot of the credit, too.

One subplot: Shanahan used to work for Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn when he was the Falcons head coach, so they know each other well.

“Dallas will make life difficult, but there are too many weapons for San Francisco offense,” the other executive said.

The Niners have won 11 consecutive games and allowed the fewest points and yards in the regular season.

“The defense will come through for San Fran,” a coach said.

Purdy has corralled much of the spotlight, but the bigger factor could be Dak Prescott’s performance. Prescott threw a league-high 15 interceptions despite starting just 12 games, and the 49ers led the NFL with 20 interceptions in the regular season.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

It starts with Dak Prescott, but who else do the Cowboys need to step up vs. the 49ers?

Prescott snapped a seven-game interception streak with a nearly flawless performance in the 31-14 victory against the Bucs in the wild-card round. He was 25-of-33 for 305 yards, four touchdowns and a rushing score.

“Cowboys in a huge upset,” a coach said. “The Cowboys defense will stop the run and confuse the rookie QB.”

There might be more talent on the field in this game than the other three over the weekend.

“The Cowboys are explosive,” said a coach who picked the 49ers. “I think Kyle will know how to attack Dan’s defense and create plays.”

It will not be a “huge upset” if the Cowboys, a 2.5-point underdog, were to beat San Francisco.  Not even sure it is an “upset” or a “surprise.”

2024 DRAFT

Yep, the headline says “2024 Draft” as Matt Miller of ESPN.com gives us names we will need to know in 12+ months:

Obviously the focus right now for NFL teams is the 2023 draft, but make no mistake: They are already starting work on the 2024 class, too. Declaration day just passed on Monday, which means evaluators now know which underclassmen are declaring for the draft. (Prospects have until Thursday night to change their minds, though.) With that in mind, we put together a quick list of names to know and players to watch once the 2023 college football season kicks off this fall. Of course much will change, and this just an early look at the talent that might be available in 2024. Let’s go position by position, starting at QB.

Quarterbacks

Caleb Williams, USC

The reigning Heisman Trophy winner is a do-it-all quarterback who routinely makes off-platform throws and jaw-dropping plays. In two seasons — one at Oklahoma and one at USC — he has thrown 63 touchdown passes, rushed for another 16 scores and thrown just nine interceptions. His 87.6 QBR ranked fifth this past season, and he had 69 completions go for 20-plus yards (second most in the FBS). Scouts think he’s a rare prospect.

Drake Maye, North Carolina

Tabbed as the next Justin Herbert by many evaluators, Maye has a rocket right arm and very good mobility at 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds. His 38 touchdown passes to seven interceptions in his first season as a starter has NFL teams ready to put a top-five grade on Maye. And his 698 rushing yards ranked sixth among quarterbacks in the nation in 2022.

Bo Nix, Oregon

Transferring from Auburn to Oregon turned around the perception of Nix and has helped put him in the top-three-quarterback conversation for the 2024 class. Nix tossed 29 touchdown passes to seven interceptions for a QBR of 85.1, and he added 14 more touchdowns on the ground. He finished third in the country in completion percentage, too (71.9%).

Sleeper: Michael Penix Jr., Washington

Running backs

Braelon Allen, Wisconsin

Back-to-back 1,200-yard seasons from Allen have him returning to college football as one of the most accomplished runners in the nation. At 6-foot-2 and 235 pounds, he is an elite after-contact running back with great power and balance. Under new coach Luke Fickell, Allen will continue to have a major role and should once again eclipse the 1,000-yard mark en route to a possible RB1 ranking for 2024.

Will Shipley, Clemson

A dynamic asset in the Clemson offense, Shipley makes an impact both as a runner and receiver (38 catches in 2022) out of the backfield. He totaled over 1,400 yards and 15 touchdowns as a true sophomore in 2022 and has a three-down skill set that intrigues scouts.

TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State

A right leg injury slowed Henderson’s sophomore season, but over the past two years, he has rushed for over 1,800 yards and added 26 total touchdowns. At 5-foot-10 and 214 pounds, he has the traits to be a starter in the NFL. Henderson led all Power 5 backs with 6.8 yards per carry when healthy in 2021, and with truly elite speed in the open field, there are some Jamaal Charles vibes here.

Sleeper: Isaiah Davis, South Dakota State

Wide receivers

Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State

The son of an NFL legend, Marvin Harrison Jr. is creating his own legacy in Columbus. As a true sophomore, the 6-foot-4, 205-pound receiver caught 77 passes for more than 1,200 yards and 14 touchdowns while looking like a 2022 version of Randy Moss. Harrison has elite size and body control, but his best trait are his hands. He’s as sure-handed as they come, with power and concentration that resulted in zero drops in 2022. He will likely be WR1 in the 2024 draft.

Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State

In its quest to earn the WRU label, Ohio State has another receiver expected to carry a Round 1 grade — and Egbuka would be the top receiver at most colleges thanks to his route running and burst off the line of scrimmage. His speed and acceleration have him ranked as the best deep threat in the 2024 class. Egbuka had 74 catches, 1,151 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2022 despite being the Buckeyes’ second option.

Xavier Worthy, Texas

Expectations are high as Worthy enters his third season. He scored 12 touchdowns as a true freshman and nine as a sophomore, despite uneven quarterback play in Austin. A legitimate deep threat with burner speed, the 6-foot-1 Worthy is very lean at 163 pounds but has big-play ability that often turns into a Round 1 grade.

Sleeper: JoJo Earle, TCU

Tight ends

Brock Bowers, Georgia

The comparisons to Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski and George Kittle are out there for a reason. Bowers is incredibly talented as a receiver, runner and blocker. It’s his ability to make defenders miss and break tackles that really separates him. Bowers can run around or through defenders, and his 20 touchdowns over the past two seasons are proof of his ability. He will be TE1 in 2024 and could find his way into the top five picks.

Erick All, Iowa

A transfer from Michigan, All will fit in perfectly with the Hawkeyes. He missed all but three games because of a back injury in 2022, but he had 38 receptions for 437 yards and two touchdowns in 2021. And his ability in the run game as a lead blocker will continue to stand out once he joins the Hawkeyes, too.

Cade Stover, Ohio State

One of my favorite all-around football players in the 2024 class, Stover doesn’t catch a ton of passes but stands out as a blocker down the field and as a receiver when called upon. He collected 36 receptions for 406 yards and five touchdowns in 2022. At 6-foot-4 and 255 pounds, he looks like an instant starter in the pros.

Sleeper: Benjamin Yurosek, Stanford

Offensive tackles

Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State

Fashanu might have been the top-ranked tackle for the 2023 class if he had entered the draft, but he will return to Happy Valley with a chance to be a top-five overall pick and potentially bring the offensive tackle position back to the No. 1 overall slot in 2024. Fashanu has all the measurable we look for in elite tackles, but it’s the way he initiates contact with length, power and a strong base that makes him the OT1 for next year. The 6-foot-6, 321-pound tackle has fantastic agility, as well. He didn’t allow a single sack (and just two pressures) on 280 pass-block snaps in 2022.

Joe Alt, Notre Dame

Notre Dame has a long record of producing NFL-caliber offensive linemen, and Alt is next on the list. The 6-foot-7, 317-pound tackle was dominant in 2022 and has the length, power and balance to be an ideal left tackle in the pros. He has the tape and potential of a top-10 pick after allowing pressure on less than 1% of his 387 pass-block snaps this past season.

JC Latham, Alabama

The top right tackle in the upcoming class, Latham is a road grader at 6-foot-6 and 326 pounds. The Alabama run game rolls right over his side of the line, and pro teams are taking note of his ability. Right tackles aren’t always favorites to go early in the first round, but Latham could change that. His poise in pass protection shows his potential, but it’s his length and power at the point of attack that has scouts excited.

Sleeper: Tommy Brockermeyer, TCU

Interior offensive linemen

Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon

One of the best run-blockers in the nation, Powers-Johnson is a talented guard prospect with some of the best interior blocks you’ll see on tape. He’s 6-foot-3 and 319 pounds but plays with power and balance that will make an impact on Sundays. He has a shot to be the top interior prospect next season. Powers-Johnson has only four starts (23 games) but still hasn’t allowed a sack or pressure over two seasons.

Matt Jones, Ohio State

A surprise returnee to Columbus, Jones will anchor an offensive line that loses three starters. He has awesome power at 6-foot-4 and 315 pounds. Jones took over at right guard — presumed first-rounder Paris Johnson Jr. moved to left tackle — and the Ohio State offense never lost a step.

Sedrick Van Pran, Georgia

An elite run-blocker, Van Pran could be the favorite for the top center position in 2024’s draft class — though he hasn’t officially announced whether he is returning to Georgia. He has ideal NFL size at 6-foot-4 and 310 pounds while showing the second-level agility to be an impact player in zone schemes. His pass protection toolbox could use a boost, though, as he has allowed eight pressures over the past two years.

Sleeper: Clark Barrington, Baylor

Defensive ends

Jared Verse, Florida State

He might have been a top-20 selection in the 2023 draft, but Verse surprised analysts by returning to Florida State for another season. The former Albany pass-rusher had nine sacks and 16.5 tackles for loss this season, his first with the Seminoles. At 6-foot-4 and 251 pounds, he’s ideal for a stand-up role in a 3-4 defense and should enter the year as a favorite for DE1 in the class rankings. Verse has length and a fantastic first step, and he always has a pass-rush plan. Rarely do college pass-rushers have a secondary move, but Verse’s hand use and spin move are pro-caliber.

J.T. Tuimoloau, Ohio State

In his first season as a full-time player, Tuimoloau put on a show as a three-tool prospect. He had 3.5 sacks, two interceptions and a forced fumble while coming into his own as a defensive end. At 6-foot-4 and 270 pounds, he has the movement traits and strength that NFL scouts line up to see.

Dallas Turner, Alabama

Yeah, Alabama has another very good pass-rusher. Turner has been turning heads for the past two seasons and will be draft-eligible in 2024. He doesn’t have great size at 240 pounds on a 6-foot-4 frame, but his first-step quickness is astoundingly good. He has 12.5 sacks, 17 tackles for loss and 60 pressures in two seasons and will be the focal point of the Alabama pass rush with Will Anderson Jr. off to the NFL.

Sleeper: Barryn Sorrell, Texas

Defensive tackles

Leonard Taylor, Miami (FL)

With three sacks and nine tackles for loss in limited reps in 2022, Taylor showed flashes of his potential. And I’m expecting him to take a step forward this offseason ahead of his junior season. The 6-foot-3, 305-pounder can develop into the premier interior pass-rusher in the nation.

Damon Payne Jr., Alabama

A role player in 2022 on a veteran-laden defensive line, Payne will be leaned on to make a bigger impact in 2023. A former four-star recruit, Payne can line up at defensive end or tackle at 6-foot-4 and 303 pounds. Payne is still developing and has played only 79 defensive snaps for Alabama, but he has already shown awareness and poise that few underclassmen have in their skill set. His instincts will make him a great all-around player.

Maason Smith, LSU

Scouts who cover the Southeast rave about the potential of Smith as the next great LSU defensive lineman. He turned heads with four sacks in 2021 but missed the 2022 season after tearing the ACL in his left knee in Week 1 against Florida State. Smith is expected to be back at full strength, though, and is primed to be one of the top defensive tackles in the nation. He has big-time length and uses it like a pro. And he has all the quickness and bend you want from a defensive tackle, and Smith knows how to set up blockers with his hands and arms.

Sleeper: Dontay Corleone, Cincinnati

Linebackers

Jeremiah Trotter Jr., Clemson

The son of a longtime NFL linebacker, the younger Trotter has made a name for himself at Clemson. With 6.5 sacks, two interceptions and a forced fumble, he was among the most productive defenders in the ACC this season. Trotter has NFL-level instincts, and at 6-foot and 230 pounds, he has the strength and size that scouts look for in top prospects.

Xavian Sorey Jr., Georgia

Yeah, Georgia has more defensive prospects. Sorey has been stuck in a logjam in the linebacker room (111 total defensive snaps over two seasons) while Georgia ran to back-to-back national championships, but scouts believe the former five-star recruit is the next Bulldog defender to break out. He’s a capable downhill player but has the quickness and range in the open field to be a problem for opponents once he has more reps under his belt.

Eric Gentry, USC

A long, lean front-seven defender at 6-foot-6 and 200 pounds, Gentry had two sacks, two forced fumbles and one interception in his sophomore year. Scouts want to see him bulk up and add strength, but the quickness and ball skills he has displayed are worth paying attention to in 2023.

Sleeper: Junior Colson, Michigan

Cornerbacks

Kamari Lassiter, Georgia

While Kelee Ringo received most of the attention in 2022, it’ll be Lassiter whom opposing offenses avoid in 2023. The 6-foot, 180-pound sophomore cornerback had four pass breakups this season but has shown the quickness, instincts and length to be a problem for NFL-caliber receivers. He’s likely to carry a top-32 grade entering the season.

Kalen King, Penn State

With three interceptions and 15 pass breakups, King returns to college as one of the most prolific corners in the nation. He’s my top-ranked player at the position heading into the 2023 college season, thanks to great ball skills, quickness and a sturdy 5-foot-11, 188-pound frame. He’s silky smooth in transitions and punishes quarterbacks who throw in his direction.

Cooper DeJean, Iowa

The Iowa secondary was loaded in 2022, and DeJean led the group with five interceptions and seven pass breakups. He also had 67 tackles and scored three defensive touchdowns. DeJean is an all-around cornerback who plays the run as well as he plays opposing quarterbacks. At 6-foot-1 and 210 pounds, he also has NFL size.

Sleeper: Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo

Safeties

Lathan Ransom, Ohio State

Ransom can do it all. Against Indiana, he blocked a punt, had two sacks and knocked a pass down in coverage. The 6-foot-1, 205-pound safety is a menace with the defensive traits to play in the box, rush off the edge or line up deep in coverage. It’s hard to imagine any safety overtaking him in the rankings next season. He finished 2022 with 69 tackles and four pass breakups.

Kamren Kinchens, Miami (FL)

Kinchens is a ball-hawking free safety with elite instincts and ability to track the football in the air. Those traits helped him grab six interceptions in 2022, which tied for third most in FBS. His range and speed are ideal for the NFL, which is why he has an early Round 1 grade.

Rod Moore, Michigan

The 2022 Michigan defense was basically an All-Big Ten roster, and many of those players are now headed to the NFL. But Moore returns and has a chance to be an All-American performer. Moore grabbed four interceptions in 2022, and he continued to develop throughout the season. He played his best football against Purdue and TCU, and he heads into the 2023 season with a ton of momentum.

Sleeper: Calen Bullock, USC