| A look at the MVP race from CBSSports.com organized by Cody Benjamin: Our panel of voters (16): Cody Benjamin, John Breech, Will Brinson, Joel Corry, Jordan Dajani, Jared Dubin, Bryan DeArdo, Josh Edwards, Eric Kernish, Jeff Kerr, Shanna McCarriston, Garrett Podell, Pete Prisco, Kevin Steimle, Tyler Sullivan, Chris Trapasso Voting rules:Each first-place vote counts for 5 pointsEach second-place vote counts for 4 pointsEach third-place vote counts for 3 pointsEach fourth-place vote counts for 2 pointsEach fifth-place vote counts for 1 point The full MVP leaderboardRavens QB Lamar Jackson (69)Bills QB Josh Allen (64)Bengals QB Joe Burrow (43)Eagles RB Saquon Barkley (36)Lions QB Jared Goff (8)Vikings QB Sam Darnold (8)Commanders QB Jayden Daniels (5)Rams QB Matthew Stafford (2)Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield (2)Chargers QB Justin Herbert (2)Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase (1)Last poll: 1. Allen (81), 2. Jackson (68), 3. Barkley (43), 4. Burrow (24), 5. Goff (24) Allen may have emerged as a frontrunner for the award early in December, but Jackson is back in pole position according to our crew, and it makes sense: His 121.6 passer rating easily leads the NFL, he edges his AFC counterpart in total scores (43 to 41), and his 6.6 rushing yards per carry lead all quarterbacks. Burrow and Barkley are shaping up to be well-respected runners-up; the former leads the league in passing touchdowns, while Barkley is just the ninth player to ever rush for 2,000+ yards. Most first-place votesBills QB Josh Allen (8)Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (7)Eagles RB Saquon Barkley (1)It’s a testament to Barkley’s world-class production that he received even a single first-place nod while competing against a slew of elite quarterbacks. It’s also clear that Allen and Jackson are neck and neck when it comes to who’s viewed as the top overall player, even if Allen was a clear leader just weeks ago. Last poll: 1. Allen (13), 2. Jackson (4) Most total ballotsRavens QB Lamar Jackson (16)Bengals QB Joe Burrow (15)Bills QB Josh Allen (15)Eagles RB Saquon Barkley (13)Lions QB Jared Goff (8)Vikings QB Sam Darnold (6)Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield (2)Commanders QB Jayden Daniels (2)Rams QB Matthew Stafford (1)Chargers QB Justin Herbert (1)Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase (1)Last poll: 1. Allen (17), 2. Jackson (17), 3. Barkley (15), 4. Goff (14), 5. Burrow (13) The most interesting takeaway here: Burrow may not be commanding first-place love as the star gunslinger of a slow-starting Bengals club, but he actually rivals Allen in terms of overall representation; only Jackson has appeared on more total ballots. Positional representationQB (9)RB (1)WR (1)No surprise, but quarterbacks still reign supreme here. Baltimore Ravens bruiser Derrick Henry once drew consideration at running back alongside Barkley, but this is very much a one-position race, with almost too many worthwhile signal-callers to include. Actual MVP favoriteThe oddsmakers are somewhat at odds with our experts, as FanDuel still pegs Josh Allen as a clear favorite (-420) over Jackson (+270). Barkley, meanwhile, is tabbed a distant third (+2500), seemingly falling off the wagon as a legitimate possibility to claim the top honor. Burrow is up next as another long shot (+3000), with Darnold (+15000) and Goff (+20000) viewed as almost impossible candidates. These odds, of course, are geared more toward what is expected to happen rather than what should happen, but it’s possible the true MVP voters will side with our experts when the time comes. |
| NFC NORTH |
| DETROITDan Wetzel of YahooSports.com on the surprising nature of the QB battle in the final game of the year for all the NFC marbles: Last Sunday, Minnesota quarterback Sam Darnold entered the victorious Vikings locker room and was greeted by his teammates, who promptly doused him with water and then lifted him off the ground. It was something pure and special, out of a jubilant NCAA March Madness upset or perhaps a Hollywood movie where eyes would roll that such a thing doesn’t happen in the real world of professional sports. Yet it was real — real emotion, real appreciation for a 14th regular-season victory and the quarterback who helped deliver it. The next night, as has become custom around Detroit games the past year, fans who had flocked to a road game in San Francisco celebrated the Lions’ 14th win by filling the stadium with chants about their own quarterback … “JAR-ed Goff, JAR-ed Goff.” Teammates sometimes joined in for the rallying cry of a new contender. The Lions (14-2) and the Vikings (14-2) will match up at Ford Field here on Sunday in one of the most consequential regular-season games in NFL history. Never before has two teams with this many victories met in the regular season, let alone with a division title and the NFC’s No. 1 overall seed on the line (the loser drops all the way to five). “This is what you’re in it for, man,” Lions head coach Dan Campbell said. “Ultimately this is it. I mean, you couldn’t write a better scenario, you couldn’t come up with this. … It just doesn’t get any better than this. This is fairy-tale stuff.” Part of the fairy tale is the unlikeliness of the two quarterbacks — and central figures — of this matchup. In 2007, an 8-0 New England team defeated a 7-0 Indianapolis squad in a historical late clash of unbeaten teams. Those teams were QB’d by Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, respectively, another chapter in a long-standing rivalry between two league MVPs and future Hall of Famers. This is Sam Darnold and Jared Goff. This came out of nowhere; two California quarterbacks (Darnold of Orange County and USC, Goff of Marin County and Cal-Berkeley) relocated to the Midwest with franchises that have either never won a Super Bowl (Minnesota) or even reached one (Detroit). Darnold was the third overall pick of the 2018 NFL Draft, but his career quickly descended into bust/journeyman territory. His three years with the New York Jets is remembered for 39 interceptions and his muttering of “seeing ghosts” during one ill-fated game against the Patriots. Two seasons in Carolina (some of it as a backup) produced little and last season he mostly watched in San Francisco. Minnesota signed him this past offseason as a veteran presence, counting on rookie J.J. McCarthy to lead the Vikings. McCarthy got hurt, though. Darnold suddenly became a star. He’s thrown 35 touchdowns (previous career high was 19). His 68.1 completion percentage is 8.4 percent higher than his career average (59.7) heading into the season. Oh, and then there are those 14 victories — which should set up Darnold for a long-term contract in Minnesota that no one could have seen coming. That shower wasn’t just a celebration, it was teammates making a statement (knowingly or not) to management that this is their guy. “A fun moment, to be embraced by your teammates like that,” Darnold said. “That was pretty special.” For Goff it’s been special in Detroit as well. He was the first overall pick of the 2016 draft who had five good seasons with the Los Angeles Rams, including reaching the Super Bowl before losing to New England. By 2021 though, the Rams felt they needed an upgrade and Goff was traded away to Detroit, along with two first-round draft picks and a third-round selection, in exchange for quarterback Matthew Stafford. The Rams won the Super Bowl that season. Detroit went 3-13-1. Goff was considered a throw-in on the trade, but Campbell and general manager Brad Holmes believed in him when others didn’t. By last year, the Lions were hosting their first playoff game in decades — against Stafford and the Rams — and the home crowd wanted to make clear their new allegiance and chanted Goff’s name. It became a battle cry, not just for Goff’s play (71.7 completion percentage and 36 TDs this season) but how he and his teammates embraced the opportunity in Detroit. He never balked at being in the industrial Midwest, he instead made the most of it. A chance is a chance. Now he’s seeking the Super Bowl he couldn’t deliver to L.A. His name will be sung all Sunday night. “The people here are special, man,” Goff said after beating the Rams a year ago. “I’m grateful.” For all the playoff implications — and they are significant — and all the historic impact of these two teams playing in such a game in the final week of the season, the quarterbacks add to it. This would be incredible with anyone, including two all-time greats — a Brady or a Manning for example. It may be even more incredible with two guys who took the long way — with as many downs as ups — to get here. One of the biggest regular-season games in NFL history? It’s Sam Darnold vs. Jared Goff, featuring the power of never giving up on yourself.– – -Another epic part of the battle is Lions OC Ben Johnson versus Vikings DC Brian Flores. Would history be different if Flores had kept Johnson around when he took over the Dolphins in 2018? Gourab Saha of EssentiallySports.com: When Flores took over as head coach of the Dolphins in 2018, one of his first moves was firing then-wide receivers coach Ben Johnson. Reflecting on it now, Johnson seems unfazed. “He had a staff already in his head with whom he wanted, so I was let go, and that was that,” Johnson said in a pre-game interview. He said it with a slight grin on his face, and that grin said a lot more than what Johnson did. And this Sunday night offers Johnson an opportunity to showcase how far he’s come. Johnson’s journey since his Miami dismissal is remarkable. After joining the Lions in 2019 as an offensive quality control coach, he steadily climbed the ranks. Today, he orchestrates the NFL’s most explosive offense. They are averaging 33.3 points per game and top the league hands down. Now, facing Flores’ defense offers a chance for poetic justice. Especially since this defence has propelled the Vikings into playoff contention this season. However, Johnson downplayed the drama. “Listen, I knew of him because he’s a Boston College guy, and that’s where I did my GA spot… I met him at the combine a couple years ago. Seems like a great guy, has a great reputation,” he said. On the other hand, the Lions, sitting at 12-2, are gunning for the NFC’s top seed, making this duel more than just personal stakes. Flores, for his part, remains tight-lipped. But his decision to fire Johnson will now face a different kind of scrutiny: the scoreboard. Both teams are vying for playoff positioning, with the Lions aiming to clinch the division. The tension is palpable, and Johnson’s offense versus Flores’ defense is the headlining act. |
| MINNESOTAAre the Vikings sitting on a gold mine in QB JJ McCARTHY? Max Dible of AthlonSports.com: The Minnesota Vikings have a couple of big decisions to make at quarterback in the offseason, namely whether they want to march forward with Sam Darnold or J.J. McCarthy as the future. Minnesota can bring Darnold back by way of a multi-season extension, which would run them in the range of $35.5 million annually over a four-year deal, per Spotrac’s latest projections. That number is likely only to go up if the Vikings make any noise in the playoffs. However, such a contract for a player like Darnold isn’t that scary if the franchise believes his 2024 production is sustainable over several seasons. Considering Darnold is just 27 years old and head coach Kevin O’Connell’s system is a huge part of the QB’s newfound success, there aren’t many reasons to believe Darnold can’t remain this good well into his 30s. Minnesota can also use the franchise tag and keep Darnold for just north of $41 million in 2025 and run it back. In this scenario, the Vikings would probably keep McCarthy on the team for at least another year and weigh options. Under the former set of circumstances, in which the Vikings extend Darnold long-term, the franchise could decide to shop McCarthy — who turns 22 years old later this month — coming off of a rookie season in which he didn’t take a single regular season snap. Adam Schefter of ESPN reported on Wednesday, Jan. 1, that teams are certain to reach out to the Vikings with interest and potential offers for McCarthy. “In a limited quarterback draft class where there are far more teams that need quarterbacks than quarterbacks who actually can step in right away, I definitely think teams will be checking in with the Vikings to see if they have any interest in trading J.J. McCarthy,” Schefter said. He added that Minnesota will be able to get back greater value than the No. 10 overall pick they invested in the QB last April. “J.J. McCarthy would have been a top, if not the top, quarterback prospect in this draft. And yes, he’s coming off the [knee injury], so what? It doesn’t really matter,” Schefter continued. “And if the Vikings decided that they wanted to trade him, which I don’t know if they will, I believe they would get back everything they put into him and then some. It would be a [first-round pick] and then some.” Justin Melo of Draft Network has three potential landing spots for McCarthy: Even if Darnold returns to Minnesota in 2025, the Vikings still possess an incentive to retain McCarthy as an eventual succession plan, but QB-needy teams around the league will likely make calls about his availability. We’ve identified three potential landing spots. Tennessee TitansThe Tennessee Titans are currently slated to own the No. 2 overall selection in the 2025 NFL Draft. That may allow them to draft either Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward. Being familiar with the offense that head coach Brian Callahan is running in Nashville, McCarthy may be a better fit for what he’s trying to achieve. Will Levis was benched in favor of Mason Rudolph following a four-turnover performance versus the Cincinnati Bengals. The Titans will definitely be in the market for a new starting quarterback this offseason. Rudolph is playing on an expiring contract. Will his replacement be a rookie or a veteran? Trading for McCarthy would represent an alternative solution. Las Vegas RaidersThe Las Vegas Raiders picked up an ill-advised win over the New Orleans Saints over the weekend. It potentially did irreparable damage to their positioning in the draft order. As a result of their meaningless late-season victory, the Raiders dropped to No. 8 overall. Experienced general manager Tom Telesco may feel a need to get creative at quarterback this offseason when attempting to replace Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew. Acquiring McCarthy would be pricey, but it’d be a better alternative to the veteran options available if they miss out on drafting Ward and Sanders. McCarthy would appreciate having a weapon like Brock Bowers at his disposal to ease his transition to starting quarterback. Cleveland BrownsThe Cleveland Browns are currently at No. 3 overall in the 2025 NFL Draft order. General manager Andrew Berry recently restructured the bloated contract of Deshaun Watson, but he’s still signed through the 2026 campaign without an escape route. The only option the Browns have this offseason is to acquire a low-cost quarterback to compete with Watson for the starting gig throughout training camp. He has not offered the team starting-caliber play since signing a $230 million contract. The Browns may have serious interest in drafting Ward or Sanders. McCarthy is also on the cost-controlled rookie contract that will appeal to the Browns this summer. If Berry misses out on his preferred quarterback prospect in the draft, acquiring McCarthy would provide a potential solution to their Watson problem. |
| NFC WEST |
| SEATTLEDT LEONARD WILLIAMS admits to disappointment for not making the Pro Bowl. Brady Henderson of ESPN.com: Cornerback Devon Witherspoon was the Seattle Seahawks’ lone Pro Bowl selection Thursday, earning a second straight nod with a strong season belied by his underwhelming stat line. Leonard Williams experienced the opposite fate. The veteran defensive tackle was passed over despite what might end up being the productive season of his 10-year NFL career, and as Williams spoke with reporters on the same day Pro Bowl rosters were announced, he made no attempt to hide how upset he was by the snub. “It’s pretty disappointing, if I’m being honest,” Williams said. This isn’t the first time Williams thought he should have made it but didn’t. He recorded a career-best 11.5 sacks in 2020 with the New York Giants (he had 8.5 when rosters were announced) but was left off the NFC team that year. He tried to convince himself after that experience that, with a flawed voting system, the Pro Bowl doesn’t matter. But Williams also realizes how Pro Bowls and All-Pro selections impact legacies, and he has become more conscious of his as he gets further into his career. “I feel like I definitely deserved it this year, but I’m happy for the guys that made it,” Williams said. “They equally deserved it. That’s why they’re in the Pro Bowl.” Williams’ 9.0 sacks are tied for most among NFC interior defensive lineman while his 15 tackles for loss and 26 quarterback hits are tops among that group. He has matched or outperformed the three players selected over him: the Giants’ Dexter Lawrence (9.0 sacks, 8 TFLs, 16 QB hits), the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Vita Vea (6.0 sacks, 9 TFLs, 12 QB hits) and the Philadelphia Eagles’ Jalen Carter (4.5 sacks, 12 TFLs, 16 QB hits). Lawrence suffered a season-ending elbow injury on Thanksgiving. |
| AFC NORTH |
| CLEVELANDHere is a factoid, make that two of them: @twithersAPUPDATES:Bailey Zappe to start Browns’ season finale. He’s 4th QB this season and team’s 40th since 1999 QuirkyResearchBailey Zappe is now the Browns’ 15th final-week starting QB in the last 17 years. |
| THIS AND THAT |
| CFP THOUGHTSSome thoughts, both the DB’s and others, as the first 12-team CFP heads to where it began in the last few years with four teams. * None of the four remaining teams are “traditional” SEC schools – no Alabama, no LSU, no Georgia – at least one of those three schools had made it when picked by the committee for a four-team playoff. Robert Griffin III@RGIIIThe only SEC team left in the CFP Semifinals was a Big 12 School last year. This year, a four-team committee playoff would have been Georgia, Oregon, Notre Dame and Ohio State/Texas. * The one “SEC” school was very lucky to be there. Arizona State did the Big 12 proud and had Texas on the ropes at the end of regulation after the Longhorns. And then Michael Taaffe of Texas put Arizona State a first down or two away from the winning field goal when he clearly targeted Sun Devils WR Melquan Stovall after a 3rd down catch. But wait, after initiating a targeting review, it was announced that anonymous replay officials from the Big Ten were not assessing the penalty. The vast majority of officiating experts were quick to denounce the decision, including Gene Steratore. @GeneSteratoreMy phone has been burning up all morning. Yes, this should have been a flag for targeting in #TEXvsASU. It meets all of the criteria of targeting (Rule 9-1-4). More verbose thoughts on the subject from Terry McAuley: Why was the clear and obvious targeting foul in Texas/Arizona St not enforced by Replay? I’ll start by saying it was not:1. Because one team was favored,2. The Replay Official and the Big Ten Command Center don’t know the rule,3. It was a critical situation in a game of huge importance. Failure to properly apply the targeting rule as written has been an ongoing issue for every major Conference the entire 2024 season. Some background: 2 years ago, those involved in training Replay staff to properly and consistently apply the targeting rule had done a terrific job in creating a process that did indeed significantly improve the accuracy of targeting replay reviews, mostly with crown of helmet targeting fouls, but defenseless player targeting reviews also improved. This had the unintended consequence that more targeting fouls were correctly called leading to more players being disqualified. The overseers of the game (note: this is *not* the NCAA, Conference Commissioners have complete control of college football) noticed and were very concerned about the rising targeting numbers. In an effort to lower the numbers, the definition of “crown of helmet” was changed with clear guidance that it was not a foul unless the very top of the helmet was used, thus, the numbers for that type of targeting (on any opponent, defenseless or not) were dramatically lowered. The rules makers also gave the National Coordinator the ability to reverse, on appeal, 2nd half targeting fouls if, and only if, there was a clear and obvious error by Replay officials. Successful appeals were extremely rare, initially. Fast forward to 2024. It became patently obvious to me that the guidance for Replay Officials, or rather Conference Command Centers who make the final decisions, went from having to indisputably confirm all targeting aspects of a given play to “find any reason you can to *NOT* confirm targeting” on both crown of helmet targeting and defenseless player targeting. I’ve posted numerous examples this year of clear and obvious targeting fouls that were not penalized (Cal/Miami, Ga/Ga Tech, Texas/Texas A&M, UCF/Utah, etc.) It’s incredibly disappointing that people who’ve spent much of their lives upholding the integrity of the game by enforcing the rules, are no longer doing so. Additionally, the National Coordinator began reversing targeting fouls that were in no way the result of a “clear and obvious error by Replay.” This confirmed to me that nationally, the philosophy was indeed to find any way possible to not enforce the rule. Ultimately, all of this created the perfect storm that allowed the Big Ten Command Center to come up with some reason to make the decision that there was no targeting on the play in Texas/ASU, although I’m still struggling to figure out what that reason might be. Targeting has been hotly debated since its inception in 2008 and even more so with the addition of automatic disqualification in 2013, which I’ve always opposed. However, it is the rule, it’s a player safety rule, and until the rule is changed, must be enforced as written. If the Conference Commissioners desire is to lower the numbers, then they must change the rules and deal with criticism that they appear to be deemphasizing player safety. The status quo that has Command Centers ignoring the clearly written language to achieve a desired result cannot continue. The integrity of the game is at stake. Football Zebras did offer the path to non-targeting – you have to see Stovall as having just transitioned out of “defenseless” territory by turning upfield and then not see an “indicator” from Taaffe who did not launch and whose helmet movement might not quite have reached “lowering”. Finally, the biggest debate of the game likely centered on ASU’s final drive of regulation, where officials reviewed a Longhorn defender’s hit for targeting. Steve Shaw has made it very clear in his weekly videos that ALL aspects of targeting must be confirmed for replay to apply targeting to a play. While we weren’t in the replay booth, the college officials we discussed the play with did not feel a clear indicator of targeting was there, which is likely why replay did not apply a targeting penalty to this play. The use of “indicator” here means that Stovall has to no longer be considered “defenseless” which most other commentators would disagree with. * All four teams that were awarded byes lost to the teams that played the extra game in front of their home fans. It would seem to be a classic test case for “rust” being worse than “rest.” – but NFL teams will still be doing plenty of resting in Week 18. |
| PRO BOWL SNUBSBen Solak and Seth Walder of ESPN.com have a list of Pro Bowl “snubs” – and they promise to tell us who is on the rosters that shouldn’t be (i.e. – it’s easy to say BAKER MAYFIELD had a “Pro Bowl year” but are you saying SAM DARNOLD didn’t?): There are always a few players who should make the Pro Bowl but aren’t named in the initial AFC and NFC rosters. A year ago, Bills quarterback Josh Allen and Colts defensive tackle DeForest Buckner were among the biggest snubs. With the full rosters for the 2024 season released Thursday morning, we asked NFL analysts Ben Solak and Seth Walder to pick the players who should be most disappointed to not make the AFC or NFC teams. In selecting snubs for the 2025 Pro Bowl, Solak and Walder broke them out into three categories: Players who should be in — the glaring misses Players who could be in — the guys with strong cases Players who would be in most years — those with great seasons who were left out because rosters are limited (not technically snubs) And because there are only so many spots on these rosters, we’re also selecting players for each of the snubs to replace. It’s only fair. Let’s dive in. (And remember, some of these snubs will still ultimately make the rosters as replacements for injured players and Super Bowl participants.) Biggest snubs: Players who should be in A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia EaglesWho he should replace: Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington CommandersWhy he should be in: I don’t know where to begin! If we’re comparing Brown to McLaurin, consider that the former has more receiving yards (1,079) than the latter (1,034) despite running over 100 fewer routes. Brown dominates McLaurin in targets per route, receptions per route and yards per route. If we look at yards per route run against man coverage, you could double McLaurin’s figure (1.4) and then he would still be a yard shy of Brown (3.8). The advanced rates are even stronger. In ESPN’s receiver scores — which measure a receiver’s ability to get open, make the catch and generate YAC relative to expectations using NFL Next Gen Stats player tracking data — Brown has a 99 overall score, the highest ever given out in a season. So yeah, I’d say he’s at least a Pro Bowler. McLaurin making it over Brown because he has 12 touchdowns to Brown’s seven (I guess?) is silly. — Walder Kerby Joseph, S, Detroit LionsWho he should replace: Xavier McKinney, S, Green Bay PackersWhy he should be in: It’s tough that only one free safety is allowed from each conference, because the two best free safeties in the league this season don’t just play in the same conference — they play in the same division! While McKinney had a strong and splashy start as a big free agent addition to the Packers’ defense, Joseph has made more plays on the ball (nine interceptions and 11 passes defensed to McKinney’s seven and 10, respectively), and his splash plays have been more integral to a reeling Detroit defense than McKinney’s have been. Joseph deserved the nod. — Solak Zach Allen, DT, Denver BroncosWho he should replace: Nnamdi Madubuike, DT, Baltimore RavensWhy he should be in: Allen has been a huge part of a Broncos defense that ranks No. 1 in EPA per play this season. His 16% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle ranks third at the position. Volume-wise, he has been even more impressive, ranking second in pass rush wins (51) among qualifying defensive tackles to go along with his 8.5 sacks. That’s due in part to Allen’s playing time, which is another reason he should have made it. He was on the field 90% of the time in games he played, the highest among win-rate-qualifying defensive tackles and much higher than other high performers, who might not even crack 70%. He’s an easy sub for Madubuike, who ranked 41st out of 48 defensive tackles in pass rush win rate and had 6.5 sacks. — Walder Jordyn Brooks, LB, Miami DolphinsWho he should replace: Roquan Smith, LB, Baltimore RavensWhy he should be in: Smith has been excellent his entire career, but for whatever reason — age, lingering injury, new defensive coaching staff — this was a down season for him. Meanwhile, Brooks signed with the Dolphins in free agency to join one of Smith’s departed coaches — Anthony Weaver, Miami’s new defensive coordinator — and immediately had a Roquan-like effect on the defense. Brooks is a three-down linebacker with Fred Warner-lite coverage ability in the middle of the field, and this was one of his strongest seasons against the run. He’d get All-Pro votes from me, not just Pro Bowl recognition. — Solak Danielle Hunter, Edge, Houston TexansWho he should replace: Maxx Crosby, Edge, Las Vegas RaidersWhy he should be in: Hunter has been magnificent in his first season in Houston, not only recording 12 sacks but also leading the NFL with a 27% pass rush win rate. And he had the volume, too, as his 77 pass-rush wins are the most in the NFL and 29 more than Crosby. Crosby gets squeezed out by the splitting of defensive linemen and outside linebackers. If I could remove any edge defender, I’d keep Crosby and cut Khalil Mack. — Walder Jonnu Smith, TE, Miami DolphinsWho he should replace: Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City ChiefsWhy he should be in: It is unsurprising that a popular player such as Kelce made the Pro Bowl — especially because he still is productive in his age-35 season! But the production was not efficient, as Kelce’s speed and quickness have tailed off. He still had good volume — 133 targets, 97 receptions — but only averaged 1.6 yards per route to Smith’s 2.1, had negative receptions and receiving yards over expectation and got smoked in EPA per target (0.11 to Smith’s 0.58). Smith had a career season in Miami and added a new, needed dimension to a passing game that has lacked success at tight end for a few seasons. That addition should have been marked with a Pro Bowl appearance. — Solak Christian Gonzalez, CB, New England PatriotsWho he should replace: Marlon Humphrey, CB, Baltimore RavensWhy he should be in: I understand everyone has different flavors at cornerback, but I would give Gonzalez the nod over Humphrey, Denzel Ward, and Derek Stingley Jr. this season; I’d give him an All-Pro nod over any corner not named Pat Surtain II, to be frank. Gonzalez had some of the hardest jobs a cornerback can have this season — travelling with star receivers out wide and into the slot, playing heavy man coverage with minimal safety help, all on a team without much of a pass rush — and was absolutely dominant. Only four corners allowed a worse passer rating when targeted, and none of them played as much man coverage as Gonzalez did. He’s a star. — Solak Players who could be in Christian Benford, CB, Buffalo BillsWho he could replace: Denzel Ward, CB, Cleveland BrownsWhy he could be in: Benford’s coverage numbers are strong. He has allowed just 0.7 yards per coverage snap, which trails only Surtain (also 0.7) among outside cornerbacks with at least 200 coverage snaps, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That alone should be enough to earn a Pro Bowl nod. Benford has been targeted just 12% of the time (well below the 16% average for an outside corner) and allowed minus-10 EPA as the nearest defender, buoyed by his two interceptions. All of this is in pretty sharp contrast to Ward, who has allowed 1.9 yards per coverage snap on a 19% target rate. Nearest defender numbers are not gospel, but in this case the difference is extreme. — Walder Daiyan Henley, LB, Los Angeles ChargersWho he could replace: Zaire Franklin, LB, Indianapolis ColtsWhy he could be in: Franklin has become a good player for the Colts, but I don’t think he had the same three-down impact that Henley had. Henley is a young, unknown name who will likely earn his Pro Bowl nods in future seasons, but even in 2024, the second-year pro fought his way into a starting job and found unique success as an undersized but smart and explosive linebacker in the Chargers’ college-inspired defense. Henley has seen more targets as the nearest defender than any linebacker according to NFL Next Gen Stats, but he has allowed negative receiving EPA in coverage despite that volume. That’s an impact player, and one integral to making the Chargers’ defense go. I would have liked to see him acknowledged. — Solak Leonard Williams, DT, Seattle SeahawksWho he could replace: Vita Vea, DT, Tampa Bay BuccaneersWhy he could be in: Firstly, how could we not put Williams in after his 91-yard pick-six, where he rumbled at a top speed of 17.8 miles per hour (the fastest by a defensive lineman ball carrier since 2022) all the way to the end zone? But Williams’ season was far more than just that one play. He recorded 9.0 sacks, 15 tackles for loss and ranks fourth and seventh in pass rush win rate and run stop win rate at defensive tackle, respectively. Those are Pro Bowl numbers. — Walder Chase Young, DE, New Orleans SaintsWho he could replace: Rashan Gary, DE, Green Bay PackersWhy he could be in: In a thin year for NFC pass rushers and Rams star rookie Jared Verse getting the nod as an outside linebacker (despite only having 26 coverage snaps this season), a third spot opened at defensive end behind Nick Bosa and Micah Parsons. Gary has been extremely hot or cold for the Packers, not consistently delivering the rush presence he did last season, despite a defensive system focused on weaponizing him on long and late downs. Meanwhile, Young has been productive as the only real pass-rush threat in New Orleans, with a 16.5% pressure rate that ranks seventh among all pass rushers. His resurgent season has been quiet given the Saints’ rough season, but he deserves a Pro Bowl nod. — Solak Players who would be in most years Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles RamsWhy he could be in: Because he has played only 11 games, Nacua’s season is being slept on. Normally I’d hold him out because of that, too, but his efficiency numbers are outrageous. Nacua was targeted on 40% of routes this season, the highest rate by a wide receiver with at least 200 routes run in the past decade. His 3.7 yards per route run is second only to Tyreek Hill’s 4.0 in 2023 and is well ahead of Cooper Kupp’s 3.2 figure in 2021, a season in which he nearly reached 2,000 yards. Even at reduced time on the field this season, I’d have loved to sneak him in. — Walder Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay BuccaneersWhy he could be in: First, let’s stop to acknowledge that the NFC Pro Bowl quarterbacks are Jared Goff (fine, predictable), Jayden Daniels (wow — the rookie, cool!) and Sam Darnold (wait, what?) — and if there were room for a fourth, it would almost certainly be Mayfield! What a topsy-turvy conference for quarterback play. Mayfield has enjoyed his best season as a pro, both in terms of raw stats — he’ll likely end the year with a completion percentage better than 70%, at least 4,200 passing yards and 40 passing touchdowns — and in his actual play on the field. If not for the narratives around Darnold and Daniels, Mayfield would have made it this season, and deservedly so. — Solak Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay BuccaneersWhy he could be in: Among running backs with at least 100 carries, Irving’s 5.5 yards per carry rank fourth only behind three Pro Bowlers: Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley and Jahmyr Gibbs. While Irving didn’t get as many carries as most of the other top running back contenders, he still ranked ninth at the position in rush yards over expectation (170), per NFL Next Gen Stats. But the key for Irving’s case is that he did all of this while playing a big role in the receiving game. He has 397 receiving yards but, per NGS, accumulated more receiving yards over expectation (163) than any other running back, period. — Walder Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars/Ladd McConkey, WR, Los Angeles ChargersWhy they could be in: It’s hard for rookies to make the Pro Bowl roster. They have to be absolutely lights out (see: Brock Bowers and Jayden Daniels) from pole to pole. Both Thomas and McConkey took a little bit of time to get going this season, but if they were household names, they could have easily jumped Zay Flowers or Jerry Jeudy for AFC wideout spots. Among high-volume receivers, Thomas’ 2.6 yards per route run ranked sixth among all players; McConkey’s 2.5 ranked eighth. These guys deserved nods, and only missed out because we don’t like to send rookies to the Pro Bowl too early. — Solak Quinn Meinerz, G, Denver BroncosWhy he could be in: I’d have had Meinerz in, but you can understand how he ended up on the outside looking in, as there’s stiff competition at guard in the AFC. Meinerz ranks third in pass block win rate (96%) despite a lower than average double-team rate, and has been a key piece for a Broncos offensive line that ranks first in pass block win rate overall. He’s above average in run block win rate and had only four total penalties this season to Trey Smith’s nine. — Walder Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina PanthersWhy he could be in: It’s hard to take umbrage with the NFC running back room of Barkley, Josh Jacobs, and Gibbs — all of whom have been delightful this season — but it is a terrible shame that Hubbard is on the outside looking in. On an offense far worse than what the three NFC Pro Bowl backs faced, Hubbard averaged 4.7 yards per touch on 293 total touches — a high-volume role with great efficiency. If Hubbard were already an established name, perhaps he could have snuck in instead of Gibbs or Jacobs. Instead, he’ll have to do it all again next season. — Solak |
