The Daily Briefing Friday, January 7, 2022

NFC SOUTH

CAROLINA

EDGE BRIAN BURNS is among those Panthers still steadfast in support of Coach Matt Rhule.  ESPN.com:

Carolina Panthers running back Ameer Abdullah saw firsthand in 2018 with the Detroit Lions what it’s like when the coach loses the locker room.

Players were so disenchanted with Matt Patricia that some reportedly made mimosas in the locker room to celebrate the end of the season and the opportunity to get away from the former New England Patriots defensive coordinator and his “Patriots Way” until offseason workouts.

“It’s not fun,” said Abdullah, who was released in November of that season but kept in touch with former teammates after his departure.

Abdullah doesn’t expect such a celebration by Panthers players after Sunday’s finale at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4:25 p.m., CBS). He hasn’t seen division between the Panthers and coach Matt Rhule, who has been asked multiple times the past few weeks whether there has been dissension in the locker room during a losing streak that on Sunday against the New Orleans Saints reached six straight.

“Not at all,” Abdullah said.

Neither has linebacker Shaq Thompson.

“I don’t think the locker room is lost — at all,” he said. “People may be frustrated. Anybody would be frustrated going on a losing streak. But these guys right here, we’re going to stick together and fight, regardless.”

Rhule saw that fight in Sunday’s 18-10 loss, Carolina’s 11th setback in 13 games. He expects to see it again against the Buccaneers.

“You get to this point in the season, you have a team that plays that hard, that means you have a good locker room, you have good guys,” Rhule said. “We have good guys.”

Outside linebacker Brian Burns agreed, adding he “100%” believes Rhule is the coach to lead Carolina into the future.

That’s not easily seen outside the walls of Bank of America Stadium. Many fans see only that the Panthers are 5-11 this season after going 5-11 a year ago, Rhule’s first.

Count former Panthers wide receiver Steve Smith Sr. among those who question interim offensive coordinator Jeff Nixon saying the Panthers are “closer than what people think as far as being able to win games and make some noise in the NFC.’’

Smith tweeted: “Do the Carolina Panthers know their own deficiencies? Because the fans that watch every week and the opponents they play every week seem to know the Carolina Panthers deficiencies”

Fans don’t understand how Rhule can say the process he used to turn around college programs at Temple and Baylor is “1000% working” when the results on the field don’t support that.

But part of that process is persuading players to continue to play hard when the results aren’t there. Edge rusher Haason Reddick knows that better than most. He was with Rhule at Temple when the Owls were 2-10 and 6-6 the first two seasons before going 10-4 in the third.

“Fans, as much as I love them, as much as I love the fans here, they’re not in the building every day,” Reddick said. “They don’t get to see how players are developing, how these younger players are maturing.

“People on the outside, sorry to say, they don’t always see that when your record doesn’t reflect it.”

That doesn’t mean there isn’t frustration on the inside.

“Man, hell yeah I’m frustrated,” Thompson said. “Busting my ass … we’re all busting our ass. To go out there and fight for the win, and not to have the outcome, man, that s— is frustrating. But each and every day, we’re going to get the corrections and attack next week.”

– – –

Rhule, whose only year of NFL experience prior to getting a seven-year, $62 million deal to coach the Panthers, has faced similar criticism regarding a college environment. That much of his coaching staff was with him at Baylor and Temple, and that seven of his current players played for him in college, flames that fire.

Rhule understands. He also understands there are things that need fixing, starting with the offensive line and quarterback.

He again points to the effort at New Orleans.

“Sometimes when you lose, all different things get out, agendas get out,” he said. “In my opinion, those guys went out and laid it on the line. Just as a football fan, that meant a lot to me.

“I’ve been pleased with our locker room. Obviously, no one is happy with the results. But guys genuinely enjoy each other. They have good relationships with the coaches and the staff.”

In time, Rhule believes that will pay off. If it doesn’t, he could be out of a job, as Patricia was in 2020 following a 4-7 start.

“From where we started at to where we are now, there’s a lot of good things happening,” Rhule insisted. “Just the results aren’t where it needs to be. That’s what people should be frustrated at, but I believe it’s coming.”

It’s almost all about the QB.  You aren’t going to go much better than 5-11 with a combination of  the 2021 version of CAM NEWTON, SAM DARNOLD and P.J. WALKER.

TAMPA BAY

The gift that keeps on giving is the tale of WR ANTONIO BROWN’s trip last week to New York.  Ruth Styles of the Daily Mail with the scoop:

NFL star Antonio Brown smuggled the influencer who went viral for licking a toilet seat into his hotel room for a steamy romp the night before he stormed off the field during a game, DailyMail.com can reveal.

Brown, 33, snuck glamorous lingerie blogger Ava Louise, 23, into the Westin in Jersey City, New Jersey last Saturday in defiance of the NFL’s Covid rules – and filmed a series of pornographic videos during the romp.

Blonde Louise, who shot to fame in 2020 after she filmed herself licking a toilet seat in a bid to catch Covid, told DailyMail.com she spent an hour with the wide receiver and snuck past security to join Brown for the sex session.

The 23-year-old said he had wanted her to spend the night with him but she initially declined after discovering she would have to be smuggled out of his room ahead of his 7am meeting with Tom Brady.

Wide receiver Antonio Brown, 33, was kicked off the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after a bizarre, shirtless exit from the field during his team’s game against the New York Jets on Sunday   +29

Wide receiver Antonio Brown, 33, was kicked off the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after a bizarre, shirtless exit from the field during his team’s game against the New York Jets on Sunday

– – –

Louise told DailyMail.com Brown had appeared disturbed before their sex session  – leaving her rambling voice messages and going on a rant about Covid and NFL rules before they got up close and personal.

Louise – who first connected with the athlete on Instagram in 2018 – said Brown began messaging her again on New Year’s Day and asked her to  come over and ‘hang out’ with him at his hotel

Screenshots of the exchange show Brown sent his location to the Jersey City-based influencer and asked her to ‘put me to bed’       

The Jersey City-based influencer told DailyMail.com the pair first connected in 2018 when he began messaging her on Instagram but never met in person before last weekend.

She said: ‘I’ve been speaking with Antonio since he DM’d me on Instagram in 2018 and we have been on and off messaging here and there.

‘We’ve never been able to hang out or anything because we’ve never been in the same area ever.’

But Louise said they reconnected on Christmas Day via Instagram and then switched their conversation to text messages – an exchange seen by DailyMail.com.

On New Year’s Day, Louise said she was preparing for a night out with friends when Brown began messaging her, sending her a string of voice messages – including one in which he offered her ‘a bonus’ if she would come over and ‘hang out’ with him.

Louise told DailyMail.com that she was initially uncertain but decided to go to the Westin ‘to find out what’s going on’ and said she was concerned by his mumbling.

She said: ‘He was mumbling [in the messages] and not making sense. Honestly, I thought he was drunk.

‘He kept saying I have money for you, I have a bonus for you and I was like, what are you saying? I just thought that was weird.

‘I thought, ok, I’ll just go see what this is about because it’s Antonio Brown, it’s the day before the Jets game, I’ll go.’

When she arrived at 11:15pm, she was forced to sneak past security due to NFL Covid rules which state teams must live in a virus-secure ‘bubble’ and cannot see guests.

Louise told how she snuck into the elevator behind other guests and hit the button for the sixth floor where Brown met her and pulled her into his room – 611.

Inside, she says the 33-year-old began ranting about ‘bulls**t Covid rules’ and repeatedly told her, ‘f*** the NFL’.

She says he then went on to tell her he is ‘insane’ before adding: ‘You don’t even know my crazy right now. You don’t know my crazy right now.’

Despite her concern over his mumbling, the pair went on to have sex – which Brown insisted on filming for her Only Fans account.

Louise said: ‘When we had sex, he wanted to film it and make a tape on my phone. He wanted me to put it out there.

‘I looked at him and I’m like, are you being serious right now? He was. Again, I’m like, you’re Antonio Brown – why would you want that scandal?

‘But he wanted to create that. I think it was purposeful considering how he’s been acting in the media. He wants that controversy, he wants this attached to his name.’

She added: ‘He knows I have an Only Fans – he told me, let’s make a tape for your Only Fans. Obviously, I’m not putting it out there right now but that’s pretty crazy.’

After they had sex, Louise said Brown asked her to stay but she decided not to after he revealed he had an early meeting with Tom Brady planned – she left at 12:30am.

She told how he fretted to her about making another Super Bowl and mumbled as he drifted in and out of sleep before she left.

The influencer said: ‘He wanted me to sleep over. He told me I could sleep over but he would have to sneak me out because he had a meeting with [Tom] Brady very early in the morning.

Louise said she texted Brown the videos of their sex session but didn’t hear from the athlete again until after the game when she asked why he had stormed off the field       

Louise told DailyMail.com she’s concerned for Brown’s mental condition and felt compelled to speak out after Sunday’s incident 

‘He had a meeting with Brady so he had to be up. But he was like, yeah let’s go to sleep, sleep over.

‘I said no because I was in bed with him and he was in and out of sleep. He was talking in his sleep.

‘So, I was like this is a really weird situation. He kept mumbling and then waking up and saying, “I’m going to give you tickets, I can’t wait for you to see what I do tomorrow. I can’t wait for you to see me tomorrow.”

‘I was like, OK, yeah I’d love to come to the game with my friends.’

The next morning, Louise said she texted him the videos of their sex session but didn’t hear from him again until after the game when she asked why he had stormed off the field.

Louise said: ‘When he stormed off the field, I texted him and I said to him, why did you do that?

‘He said “YC baby?” That means you see me. I said, “yes I saw you but why did you do that?”‘

‘He replied “you see me baby?” I said, ‘obviously I saw you but why did you do it?’ He didn’t respond to that.

Louise says she is concerned about Brown’s mental condition and said she felt compelled to speak out after Sunday’s dramatic events.

She said: ‘I had no intention of exposing Antonio Brown ever but then I saw what happened and I thought, oh my god, I’ve seen the events leading up to this breakdown – I’m involved.

‘I really couldn’t understand half of what he said [at the hotel] because he was mumbling. This man really did not seem OK.’

DailyMail.com has contacted Brown for comment.

– – –

Meanwhile, as Brown falls short of his incentives, QB TOM BRADY has his own payday at stake this week.  If the Buccaneers run the ball well.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have an incentive to finish the regular season strong, both as a team and for at least a couple of individuals.

The Bucs, who host Carolina on Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS), can win the No. 2 seed in the NFC, and quarterback Tom Brady is one of many NFL players with bonuses and incentives tied into his contract, which means winning and losing won’t be confined to the field.

Brady needs the Buccaneers to have a better yards-per-rush average this year than last year — something Tampa Bay currently has at 4.35 yards per rush compared to 4.12 last season — to unlock some of his incentives. For others, he just needs to hit the mark for bonuses, according to Roster Management System, which provided all the incentive information for this story.

Brady’s 40 touchdown passes have eclipsed the 25 he needed to unlock a $562,500 bonus, but this bonus is contingent on the Bucs’ rushing yards.

He leads the NFL with 4,990 passing yards, and as long as he stays in the top five — Joe Burrow is fifth with 4,611 — he’ll hit another $562,500 incentive. Like the touchdown passes, this is tied to Tampa hitting those rushing totals.

Brady’s 66.9% completions is No. 13, and he’d need to get into the top five to hit a $562,500 bonus. That may be out of reach.

His 10.9 yards-per-completion average is No. 16, and he’d have to break into the top five to unlock a $562,500 bonus. No. 5 is at 11.9 yards-per-completion, so that also seems like an unlikely bonus to unlock.

Brady can earn $562,500 if he finishes in the top five in NFL passer rating. He is currently No. 8 at 100.5. Kirk Cousins sits in fifth at 101.3.

But even if he qualifies for all five of the $562,500 bonuses, the stipulation is he can only win four of them, and as long as Tampa Bay finishes the season above 4.12 yards per carry and not in the bottom five of the league, he’ll hit two of them.

Brady already has made $500,000 by playing in 75% of Tampa Bay’s snaps in the regular season and making the playoffs. If the Buccaneers win the wild-card round, that jumps to $750,000. It would increase to $1.25 million if the Bucs win in the divisional round, $1.75 million if they win the NFC championship, capping at $2.25 million if he repeats as Super Bowl champion.

AFC NORTH

CINCINNATI

With QB JOE BURROW out, will the Bengals let WR Ja’MARR CHASE try to erase Bill Groman from the record book?  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

One of the NFL’s oldest records is the most receiving yards in a rookie season. Ja’Marr Chase could break that record on Sunday — if he plays.

The Bengals have already confirmed that starting quarterback Joe Burrow will sit out on Sunday, as the Bengals have clinched the AFC North and are getting ready for the playoffs. Chase, however, could “potentially” play, according to head coach Zac Taylor.

It’s unclear how hard Taylor would be willing to try to get Chase that rookie receiving record of 1,473 yards, which was set by Bill Groman of the Houston Oilers in 1960. Groman set that record while playing in the first season of the American Football League, but the NFL has accepted all AFL records as official NFL records since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger.

Chase has 1,429 receiving yards this season, so he needs just 45 receiving yards on Sunday against the Browns to break Groman’s record. Chase has gained more than 45 yards in 12 of his 16 games this season, so he has a good chance of breaking the record. But breaking the record will be harder with Brandon Allen, rather than Burrow, passing him the ball. And harder still if Taylor doesn’t want to give Chase too big a workload on Sunday to keep him fresh for the playoffs.

If you’ve never heard of Groman despite his rookie record, that’s because he suffered a serious knee injury in his second season and was never the same player again. Every promising young player is one play away from a potentially career-altering injury, which is why Taylor may decide not to give Chase a chance to break that record.

Hard to compare these as Groman did it in 14 games in an inferior league vs. Chase in 17 games in the modern NFL.

CLEVELAND

QB BAKER MAYFIELD continues to burn bridges, as he goes after longtime Browns beat person Mary Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain Dealer and the rest of the Cleveland media.

Baker Mayfield’s is taking aim at Cleveland media … saying it’s filled with “drama stirring reporters,” TMZ reports.

Mayfield unleashed on Twitter after a report from Mary Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain Dealer claimed he could request a trade out of town if changes weren’t made during the offseason.

But, according to Mayfield, that’s apparently not true … and he’s accusing the reporter of spicing up the story to get clicks.

“Clickbait,” he said Thursday. “You and many other Cleveland local media continue to be drama stirring reporters with no sources or facts.”

“Don’t put words in my mouth so you can put food on your table. I’m not your puppet.”

The clapback comes on the heels of the Browns’ recent elimination from playoff contention … which capped off a disappointing season.

The 2021 campaign was filled with drama — Baker recently called out head coach Kevin Stefanski over his play-calling … and has reportedly taken issue with how the offense isn’t utilizing his strengths.

On top of that, Odell Beckham’s dad publicly campaigned for the receiver’s trade out of Cleveland due to missed targets back in November … which worked, as OBJ was released shortly after.

Just a few weeks later, Jarvis Landry spoke out about his role with the team … saying he had no idea why he wasn’t getting the ball.

PITTSBURGH

COVID has spread through the Steelers roster in wide-ranging style.  Brooke Pryor ofESPN.com:

The Steelers will likely be without their top receiver in Ben Roethlisberger’s final game.

The Steelers placed wide receiver Diontae Johnson on the reserve/COVID-19 list Thursday along with center Kendrick Green, making it unlikely that either will clear protocols in time for the regular-season finale at the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday.

Cornerback Joe Haden was also placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list Wednesday, and defensive coordinator Keith Butler entered protocols the same day.

Johnson leads the team with 1,100 receiving yards on 100 catches. He also has eight receiving touchdowns, including two the last time the Steelers faced the Ravens. Rookie tight end Pat Freiermuth is next with seven touchdown receptions, while second-year wide receiver Chase Claypool is second on the team with 823 receiving yards, but he has only one touchdown.

The Ravens have the league’s worst pass defense, allowing an average of 8.2 yards per attempt and 30 passing touchdowns. Johnson had 105 yards on eight catches in the Dec. 5 win against the Ravens. Although the third-year receiver hasn’t hit 100 yards in the four games since, he’s still Roethlisberger’s favorite target with 159 targets. He caught the quarterback’s lone touchdown pass in Monday night’s win against the Cleveland Browns.

Meanwhile, Green missed the Browns game with a calf injury, and J.C. Hassenauer started in his place. With Hassenauer in the lineup, the Steelers’ run game thrived, and rookie Najee Harris racked up 188 yards. Although the Ravens have the NFL’s best run defense, Harris will likely be used even more Sunday in Johnson’s absence.

AFC SOUTH

JACKSONVILLE

Packers OC Nathanial Hackett, who once was Jaguars assistant, will be interviewed next week by Trent Baalke and company.

Green Bay Packers offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett said he plans to interview with the Jacksonville Jaguars about their head-coaching vacancy next week.

The Packers (13-3) have clinched the NFC’s No. 1 seed and lone first-round playoff bye, so they won’t be playing when the postseason begins next week.

“I owed it to this organization, all these players, we wanted to wrap up that No. 1 seed,” Hackett said Thursday. “That was so important to do. And it’s absolutely an honor to be even considered for something like this. So we’re going to do it during the bye because we wrapped up that No. 1 seed. We’re really excited about that opportunity. I mean, it’s a dream for any football coach to even have an opportunity to potentially become a head coach.”

Hackett, 42, was the Jaguars’ quarterbacks coach from 2015 to 2016 and offensive coordinator from 2016 to 2018 before getting fired in the middle of the 2018 season. The Jaguars reached the AFC Championship Game in the 2017 season.

THIS AND THAT

WORST TO FIRST IN 2022

Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com salutes the 2021 Bengals and names his favorites to go Worst To First in 2022:

With their dramatic victory over the Chiefs on Sunday afternoon, the Bengals became the latest NFL team to go from worst to first in its division.

If anything, Joe Burrow & Co. earned a few bonus points; the Bengals were in the AFC North basement for three consecutive seasons before turning things around. The Eagles, another last-place team in 2020, will join Cincinnati in the postseason, while the 49ers have a 60.2% chance of joining them, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.

We could see three of the eight last-place teams from 2020 playing postseason football in two weeks. That’s more than usual, but it’s a reminder of how quickly things can turn in the NFL. Let’s look at the eight last-place teams from the 2021 season and rank their chances of going worst-to-first in 2022.

Before we get started, here’s a quick glance at how the Bengals turned things around. What changed?

They got a full, productive season from Burrow. The former LSU star missed 6½ games in 2020 after tearing his left ACL, but he has been healthy for all 16 games this season. The Bengals actually had a better record without Burrow in 2020 than they did with their first overall pick, but let’s be realistic and suggest that a full season of him was better than relying on Brandon Allen and Ryan Finley. After two spectacular games, Burrow is 11th in the league in Total QBR, up from 24th a year ago.

They nailed their first-round pick and free agency. With all due respect to Penei Sewell, the Bengals don’t regret passing up the offensive tackle to take Ja’Marr Chase. Burrow’s former LSU teammate is finishing up one of the best rookie seasons we’ve ever seen from a wide receiver, peaking with his 266-yard performance against the Chiefs. Swapping in a superstar for an incredibly inefficient season from A.J. Green was a massive upgrade.

On top of that, they were able to land a difference-maker in free agency by signing pass-rusher Trey Hendrickson. I wasn’t a fan of the deal when it happened, but after a 14-sack, 27-knockdown season, it’s hard to argue with the results. Cincy also imported contributors Mike Hilton and Larry Ogunjobi and got D.J. Reader, one of their big additions from the 2020 offseason, back from a serious quad injury. The Bengals improved from 27th to 14th in defensive DVOA this season.

They were luckier. The Bengals were better than their record a year ago on a snap-by-snap basis, but they went 1-5-1 in games decided by seven points or fewer. This season, owing to some well-timed aggressiveness, they are a much more reasonable 4-4 in those same contests.

It would have been reasonable to expect the Bengals to improve, but I don’t think anyone saw them as likely winners in the AFC North, myself included. These eight teams won’t feel like future division champs as we watch them finish in last, but let’s run through what it might take to get them to follow in Cincinnati’s footsteps. I’ll start with the last-place team I think is least likely to win its division next year and work toward my most likely pick:

8. New York Jets (4-12)

If you believe that mediocre teams that show signs of life at the end of the season are more likely to improve the following season, you’re probably interested in these Jets. After a competitive loss to the Dolphins in Week 15, the Jets beat the Jaguars in Week 16 and nearly upset the defending champion Buccaneers on Sunday. Coach Robert Saleh correctly called for his team to convert a fourth-and-2 to try to seal the game in the fourth quarter, only for Zach Wilson to be stuffed on a sneak and for Tom Brady to drive the length of the field for a game-winning touchdown.

In my past research, I haven’t found that teams that up their play toward the end of the season are any more successful the following year than similar teams that don’t. The Bengals did win two of their final three to end 2020, but what made them better was getting back Joe Burrow from his torn ACL and adding a bunch of defensive players in free agency (including D.J. Reader and Trae Waynes, who both signed before 2020 but weren’t available by the end of the season). The Patriots lost three of their last four, while last year’s Niners lost four of their final five.

Jets fans are specifically excited about the improvement in Wilson since the rookie returned from his knee injury in Week 12. The No. 2 overall pick has cut down on turnovers, which is important, but there’s not much to get enthused about otherwise. He’s completing 56% of his passes and averaging less than 6 yards per attempt, which is replacement-level production. His completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) over that timeframe is a league-worst minus-11.8%. This feels a lot like the late-season strides we saw Sam Darnold supposedly making during his time with New York, only for those improvements to invariably disappear the following season.

To be fair, Wilson isn’t working with a ton of talent at receiver, and his 4.9% drop rate over that timeframe ranks sixth in the league. He’ll get back Elijah Moore and Corey Davis next season — and Braxton Berrios looks like he’s going to be a useful slot receiver — but the offense isn’t even the problem with this team. Saleh’s defense ranks 32nd in just about every major category. They’ll get a key player back from injury in Carl Lawson, but the Jets have major work to do this offseason.

They’re also stuck in a very competitive division. We saw the Bengals rise from the bottom of what looked to be a stacked AFC North in one year, but I would rather take my chances with a team that has to come from last place in a division where there’s one dominant team. Instead, the Jets have to make major improvements and hope that the Bills and Patriots both decline, while the Dolphins don’t build off their seven-game winning streak or make a major upgrade at quarterback. I don’t like the chances of the Jets accomplishing all of that in 2022, even if they do improve on what we saw in 2021.

7. New York Giants (4-12)

Oh, boy. Where do we start? The Giants have taken another step backward in 2021, hitting what might be rock bottom over the past 48 hours. Facing a 5-10 Bears team with a lame-duck coach, the Giants delivered one of the most putrid offensive performances in league history and became the first team in 12 years to finish a game with negative net passing yards. Despite falling into an early hole, they responded to a Mike Glennon fumble on the opening snap by running the ball on 22 of their 23 remaining snaps in the first half.

Coach Joe Judge followed the 29-3 defeat with one of the more bizarre news conferences in recent memory, insisting that the team was on the right track and that former Giants players who made more money elsewhere were calling him and wishing they were back in New York. (The only player this could plausibly be is defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson, who admittedly might not be having much fun with the Vikings.)

ESPN’s Adam Schefter has reported that the Giants plan on bringing back Judge and QB Daniel Jones for the 2022 season. If Judge’s past few weeks haven’t soured ownership on his future, and if they plan to bring back Jones for a fourth season as their starting quarterback, there’s no point in writing anything else. Even if we saw the sort of disastrous 2020 season in which the top of the NFC East cratered, the Giants haven’t shown any evidence of sustained competency.

On the other hand, they do have something that could interest the teams looking to trade away veteran quarterbacks: two top-10 picks, with New York currently projected to land the Nos. 5 and 8 overall selections by the FPI. The Eagles have three first-rounders, but the two more lucrative picks might give the Giants the inside track to land a quarterback such as Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers via trade.

If that happens, even given Judge’s track record, a massive improvement at quarterback would probably turn around the Giants. I’m not sure that would be enough to win the division, but the Cowboys are likely to regress on defense in 2022 given their remarkable turnover rate. More likely, we’ll see New York hire a new general manager, make those two picks and continue to wonder why the franchise is going nowhere.

6. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14)

The Jaguars were in the top spot last year, but I’m not quite as enthused this time around. The 2021 Jags projected for meaningful improvement, but the disastrous Urban Meyer season erased much of that optimism. Jacksonville will finish with a worse point differential than it did in 2020, even if it does manage to come away with an additional victory this time around.

I’m also not as pessimistic about the AFC South. The Titans projected to decline in 2021, but despite losing running back Derrick Henry for half the year, Mike Vrabel’s team managed to overcome the odds. To be fair, they will also project to decline in 2020, given that they’re 11-5 and somehow came into Week 17 ranked behind the likes of the Seahawks and Vikings at 20th in DVOA. Given how Ryan Tannehill & Co. overcame the odds this season, I’ll be a little nervous about projecting them to decline next season.

The Colts are a legitimately good team, as they ranked eighth in DVOA before Sunday’s upset loss to the Raiders. The Texans are a mess, but they’ll finally get a full complement of draft picks in April, and there’s a chance that they’ll end up trading quarterback Deshaun Watson to add more selections. They’ll be a more talented team in 2022 than they were in 2021, and while the Jaguars have QB Trevor Lawrence, I’m not sure we can count on the rest of the Jags’ roster being competitive with the AFC South.

I was too optimistic about Jacksonville’s chances to begin with, but I also think that we saw how dramatically their chances were capped by hiring a totally overmatched person to run football operations. It’s also fair to note that the Jaguars could take a leap forward if they hire the right person to take over as coach this offseason. It’s probably not going to produce a playoff appearance unless they could land someone such as Andy Reid or Bill Belichick, but hiring the right person to foster Lawrence’s career is more important than a playoff run in 2022.

5. Detroit Lions (2-13-1)

By their record, the Lions are the worst team in the NFC. Given how they’ve competed from week to week, though, it’s hard to feel like they are worse off heading into 2022 than the Giants, Bears or Panthers, who have major questions about their present and future identities. If feels like the Lions are moving in the right direction, even if they’ve managed to win only two games.

As you might suspect from a team that has had its heart broken more than once this season, the underlying numbers suggest the Lions are better than their record would indicate. While they will hit Week 18 with a 2-13-1 record, they are 1-5-1 in games decided by seven points or fewer. Their point differential suggests they would have won 4.3 games with average luck this season.

Of course, 4.3 games is still far away from winning a division, but don’t underestimate how quickly things can change from year to year. We’ve seen a handful of teams over the past 20 years with similar profiles take an unexpected leap and make it to the playoffs:

The 2011 Vikings went 3-13 with a 5.5-win point differential and finished 10-6 in Adrian Peterson’s MVP season the following year, advancing to the playoffs in the process.

The 2016 Jaguars went from 3-13 to 10-6 and a division title the following season, improving on their 5.9-win point differential.

The 2007 Dolphins seemed hopeless at 1-15 despite their 3.8-win point differential in the same division as the 16-0 Patriots, but they improved to 11-5 in 2008 and won the AFC East.

You might remember there was a big difference at quarterback between the 2007 and 2008 Patriots, as they went from reigning league MVP Tom Brady to untested backup Matt Cassel after the future Hall of Famer tore an ACL in Week 1. There’s a similarly imposing presence atop the NFC North in Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, and while I don’t expect or want Rodgers to suffer a serious injury, the Lions’ chances of winning the North would improve considerably if the MVP favorite was traded out of the division this offseason.

The Packers would still be favorites with their roster and Jordan Love at the helm, but if Rodgers doesn’t factor in this discussion, things change quickly. The Vikings are 7-9 and about to face their own internal reckoning surrounding Kirk Cousins this offseason, which could lead to a rebuild. The Bears are 6-10, but they’re also going to turn over most of their offense and could make new hires at coach and general manager. It’s entirely possible that they’re worse at most of the sport’s key positions than the Lions are in 2022.

So much comes down to what the Lions do this offseason. It’s unclear whether they’ll be starting quarterback Jared Goff in 2022 after an uneven season, but Tim Boyle isn’t the answer, either. We’ve seen a young core of players begin to emerge here with offensive tackle Penei Sewell, cornerback Amani Oruwariye, running back D’Andre Swift and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is sixth in the league in receiving yards over the past five weeks.

With two first-round draft picks and approximately $50 million in cap space after some expected cuts, Detroit will be able to add more talent this offseason. The most important factor for its 2022 chances, though, might come down to what happens in Green Bay after the season ends

4. Carolina Panthers (5-11)

In each of his college stops at Temple and Baylor, Matt Rhule followed a dismal first season with a drastically improved second season. By Year 3, his teams were competing for a conference title. I don’t think he thought he could turn the Panthers around overnight, but if you asked him where he thought they would be by the end of their second season together, I suspect he would have been confident that they would be a competitive football team.

Well, the Panthers are not on schedule. After losing to the Saints 18-10 on Sunday, they have dropped to 5-11 this season. Rhule’s team has lost 11 of its past 13 games after a 3-0 start that included wins over the Jets, Saints and Texans to start the season. If anything, it has taken a step backward; the 2020 Panthers ranked 21st in DVOA, but these Panthers were 28th before the Saints loss and could drop even further before the season’s over. They finish up with a trip to play the Buccaneers in Tampa, Florida, next Sunday, and it would be a surprise if they pulled out a victory.

Rhule has rebuilt the team in his desired image, as just five of the 22 players who started the final game of the 2019 season are on the Panthers roster, but the early returns are mixed. They are the league’s seventh-youngest team by snap-adjusted age, but their drafts have delivered mixed results. Defensive tackle Derrick Brown, the No. 7 overall pick in 2020, was taken out of the starting lineup for games over the past month of the season. Cornerback Jaycee Horn got off to a good start, but the rookie No. 8 overall pick lasted only three games before suffering a season-ending foot injury.

The Panthers passed up quarterbacks Justin Fields and Mac Jones to take Horn and traded two picks to acquire Sam Darnold, who is guaranteed $18.9 million in 2022. After excelling in positive game scripts to start the season, the best thing Darnold did to improve his standing with the team was get injured; by the time he was ready to return, the organization was desperate to insert him into the lineup. He went 17-of-26 for just 132 yards with an interception in Sunday’s loss to the Saints.

Darnold is likely to be on the roster next season given his salary, but the Panthers will almost surely throw themselves back into the hunt for one of the league’s top quarterbacks this offseason. If they can land an Aaron Rodgers or a Russell Wilson, there might be enough on the defensive side of the ball and in terms of weapons for them to make a sudden leap. If that doesn’t happen, they would probably need a sudden drop-off or retirement from Tom Brady to open back up the NFC South for business. AFC East teams spent most of the past decade waiting for that to happen, so I’m not sure it’s a winning strategy for 2022.

3. Denver Broncos (7-9)

If the Broncos could just get steady quarterback play, they might already be one of the league’s best teams. They were 7-6 with Teddy Bridgewater at the helm before he suffered a serious injury in Week 15 against the Bengals. They lost that game 15-10 and then fell in consecutive games to the Raiders and Chargers, dropping their playoff chances from 27% to zero. The Broncos have not made it to the postseason since winning Super Bowl 50 six years ago.

The tough part in evaluating their chances of winning the division in 2022 is what we don’t know about their quarterback situation. Bridgewater is a free agent. Drew Lock isn’t the answer. Denver was the team most popularly linked to Aaron Rodgers over the spring, and if he goes back on the trade market, the Broncos would be the best on-field fit, even if they couldn’t offer the best possible haul of picks in return. Likewise, they would be a viable fit for Russell Wilson if the Seahawks star rekindles his trade push this offseason.

What happens if they don’t, though? Will the Broncos use their first-round pick on a quarterback in a draft class that isn’t expected to have difference-makers? Will the veteran alternatives be much better than Bridgewater? If they trade for someone such as Kirk Cousins, they should be better in 2022 than they were in 2021, but does that give them the ceiling to compete with the Chargers, let alone the Chiefs, in the AFC West?

Likewise, it’s unclear what they’ll do with coach Vic Fangio, whose defense ranked 19th in DVOA heading into Week 17. Fangio couldn’t do much this week given his team’s COVID-19-enforced absences, but if the Broncos do fire him, they will have made it to Year 4 with exactly one coach (John Fox) since letting Mike Shanahan leave. It’s easy to see how much promising talent they have on both sides of the football, but the two most important spots for a football team to fill are quarterback and head coach. General manager George Paton will probably have to nail both those hires this offseason to have a shot at winning the West in 2022, and he might not have access to the signal-callers he needs to succeed.

2. Cleveland Browns (7-9)

With Monday night’s loss to the Steelers, the Browns are back in the AFC North basement with one game to go. Kevin Stefanski’s team would jump to third next week if it beats the Bengals and the Steelers beat the Ravens, but if that doesn’t happen, it will finish in last place for the first time since 2017.

I’m not really sure the 2021 Browns are really that much different from the guys who went 11-5 and made it to the playoffs in 2020. Those Browns were outscored by 19 points and went 7-2 in games decided by seven points or fewer. This season, as they hit the 17th game at 7-9, they have been outscored by 27 points while going 4-6 in games decided by seven points or fewer. They would be at a minus-20 point differential and 4-7 in those one-score games if it weren’t for Najeh Harris’ fantasy-busting touchdown in garbage time.

When I wrote before the season about the Browns’ chances of declining, I mentioned their health along the offensive line and red zone performance as likely places that would drive a worse record. If you watched Monday Night Football, you saw how the absence of right tackle Jack Conklin helped spur a career night from T.J. Watt, who had four sacks. The red zone offense has still been effective, ranking fifth in the NFL, but the Browns are 27th in defensive red zone conversion rate.

Better play in the red zone on defense and a healthier team, especially on the offensive side of the ball, is Cleveland’s ticket toward a better season in 2022. Conklin should be back, and the Browns obviously will hope for a healthy year from Baker Mayfield, who battled through a shoulder injury for most of the season. Just about every key contributor from this team will be back, and Cleveland will have close to $40 million in cap space. It has the best roster of any of these eight teams.

On the other hand, the AFC North remains one of the most difficult divisions in football, and it’s unclear what sort of ceiling the Browns have with Mayfield at the helm. It would be a surprise if they gave Mayfield an extension this offseason, but with the 2018 No. 1 overall pick entering his fifth-year option campaign, it would also be unexpected if they brought in somebody to take his job. Without a change at quarterback, the Browns might only be able to settle in this nine-win range, so it might take another bit of luck in close games for them to jump atop the AFC North for the first time in division history.

1. Seattle Seahawks (6-10)

So many of these teams have a future that depends on the identity of their 2022 quarterback. The Seahawks are no exception, but unlike many of the other teams on this list, they have to worry about keeping their guy. Sunday’s comfortable victory over the Lions felt like it had end-of-an-era vibes for the three most conspicuous people left from the Legion of Boom teams in coach Pete Carroll, Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner.

My guess is that all the three will be back. Wagner, who was hurt on the opening snap of the game on Sunday, has a $20.4 million cap hit in the final year of his deal. The Seahawks would save $16.6 million in cap space by releasing the veteran linebacker, but I suspect the two sides could work out a compromise with a pay cut, given that he’s not likely to take home a $16.4 million base salary if he’s released. The 70-year-old Carroll hasn’t hinted that he wants to retire or move on from Seattle.

Wilson is the most important one of the bunch, and his status is the most uncertain of the three. After pushing for a trade last offseason, he battled through the most difficult season of his career. He also gave an answer “out of nowhere” last week wondering whether this would be his final home game in Seattle. At the very least, given how disappointing a season it was for both Wilson and the Seahawks alike, it’s fair to wonder if the star quarterback’s frustrations were addressed over the past year. It would hardly be a surprise if he wanted to move on again this spring.

If Seattle does trade Wilson, its chances of competing would depend on his replacement. A move for someone like Jared Goff, whom offensive coordinator Shane Waldron worked with during their time with the Rams, probably wouldn’t move the needle. The 49ers probably wouldn’t trade Jimmy Garoppolo within the division, nor would the Packers prefer to ship Aaron Rodgers to the Pacific Northwest.

I still think Wilson will return, and if he does, the Seahawks should be able to bounce back. They won’t have their first-round pick, which complicates matters, but there’s another avenue for general manager John Schneider to add talent. The offensive core is still around for another season, and if Wagner is released, they would have about $70 million in cap space to rebuild their roster. The NFC West complicates things, given that they would be competing with as many three playoff teams from 2021, but we just saw the Bengals overcome that in the AFC North.

It’s also fair to argue that Seattle really isn’t that much worse than teams of years past. The 2019 and 2020 Seahawks outperformed their Pythagorean expectation by winning close games; they went a combined 23-9 with an expected win total of 18.2 wins, owing to the fact that Wilson & Co. went 16-5 in games decided by seven points or fewer. This season, they are 6-10 with the point differential of an 8.6-win team, which is right in line with their 9.1-expected win average between 2019 and 2020. The difference is that they have gone 2-5 in the one-score games.

I’m assuming here that the Seahawks run things back in 2022 with Wilson, Carroll and a remodeled roster. If so, given their level of play in the past and their similarly-high underlying performance in 2021, they are the best-positioned team of the bunch to rise back up to first in their division.

CLINTON PORTIS

Once a top running back with a bit of a smarter-than-though attitude, Clinton Portis is now a convicted felon on his way to incarceration.  He is not alone among NFL alumni.

Former Washington and Denver Broncos running back Clinton Portis has been sentenced to six months in federal prison and six months of home confinement for his part in defrauding a health care benefit program for retired NFL veterans.

Portis, 40, pleaded guilty to fraud in September following charges that he obtained nearly $100,000 after filing false claims for medical equipment that was not provided, according to court documents.

In a pre-sentence filing Thursday, the Department of Justice said it sought a sentence at the higher end of the recommended 10-to-16 month guideline, given Portis’ offense. The DOJ said it sought a longer sentence because Portis continued to deny his guilt until he faced a retrial following a hung jury. The filing also noted Portis did not pay back money to the plan until shortly before sentencing.

Portis was part of a ring of former players who filed false reimbursement claims totaling about $2.9 million. In 2006, the NFL established the Gene Upshaw NFL Player Health Reimbursement Account Plan, designed to help retired players pay for medical expenses. The account provides up to $350,000 in benefits per player.

Fifteen former players have pleaded guilty to charges.

Tamarick Vanover, who played for the Chiefs and Chargers, is scheduled to be sentenced Jan. 22.

Former linebacker Robert McCune, considered by the Department of Justice to be the orchestrator of the ring, pleaded guilty to 13 counts of health care fraud, 11 counts of wire fraud and three counts of aggravated identity theft. He faces a lengthy jail sentence.

The other former players who have pleaded guilty are: Joe Horn, Carlos Rogers, Correll Buckhalter, James Butler, Ceandris Brown, John Eubanks, Antwan Odom, Etric Pruitt, Darrell Reid, Anthony Montgomery, Frederick Bennett and Reche Caldwell, who was killed in 2020.

Buckhalter received a 10-month prison sentence in October. Others, including Bennett, Rogers, Odom, Montgomery and Reid, have been sentenced to house arrest ranging from six to 10 months, according to court documents.

Horn, a former New Orleans receiver, was sentenced in November to three years of probation and at least 200 hours of community service for his role. He obtained $149,775, but has repaid the money.

According to the Department of Justice, Portis faced up to 10 years in prison for his role in the scheme. He was charged with submitting false claims totaling $99,624 in benefits over a two-month span for medical equipment that had not been provided. Along with pleading guilty to conspiracy to commit health care fraud, Portis agreed to repay the full amount.

MATT CORRAL

Lane Kiffin, who may be prejudiced, is confident his QB, MATT CORRAL, is headed to NFL stardom.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

Mississippi quarterback Matt Corral rolled the dice one more time, capping his college career with a Sugar Bowl appearance. His early exit with a leg injury quite possibly will complicate his prospects at the next level.

It’s still too early to know the extent of the injury. After the game, Mississippi coach Lane Kiffin told reporters that X-rays were negative. That’s only part of the story, however; ligament damage won’t show up on an X-ray.

Kiffin also addressed his own emotions after seeing Corral get injured.

“That’s obviously a difficult situation, especially when a kid’s playing in the game, you know, so my mind raced with a lot of thoughts right there, you know, and that’s just my love for him, just like I would if it was my own son in that situation,” Kiffin said, via ESPN.com. “Maybe I didn’t do a great enough job with the team, because I was really hurting for him in that situation because I know how much he’s put into it, how much it means to him. And for that to be taken away like that, you know, it really sucks.”

While the injury could impact Corral’s draft stock and delay his ability to make a difference when his career commences, Kiffin (the former coach of the Raiders) is confident that Corral eventually will become a great NFL player.

“He’s gonna make a great NFL player and do great for a franchise,” Kiffin said. He added a concrete example of the leadership Corral will be able to provide.

“He’s been unbelievable and things that you don’t see besides the playing, just how he is,” Kiffin said. “And I had a cool moment this morning, the team meeting, just listening to him talk. And I told our own coaches and players, ‘You can be a freshman and you’re supposed to listen to the leaders. You can be a 50-year-old coach, and you should listen to this guy.’”

Hopefully, the injury won’t prevent Corral from doing that at the next level, even if it may delay it for a bit.

Pat Forde of SI.com on how Corral’s injury proves those who skip bowl games to be correct:

New Year’s Day began with ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit uttering a line on College GameDay that would echo for hours, with the blowback becoming deafening as unfortunate events unfolded hours later in New Orleans.

“I think this era of player just doesn’t love football,” Herbstreit said, in discussing players opting out of bowl games to protect their bodies from injury and thus protect their professional futures. Fellow analyst Desmond Howard opined that today’s players have “a sense of entitlement.” Two of the highest-paid men in the college athletics broadcast space suggested that the kids these days, they’re cheating the billion-dollar enterprise that is just now beginning to compensate them for a fraction of their worth.

Herbstreit subsequently amplified on his comments, both on-air and on Twitter. “Of course some players love the game the same today as ever. But some don’t. I’ll always love the players of this game and sorry if people thought I generalized or lumped them all into one category.”

Less than 12 hours later, star Mississippi quarterback Matt Corral was on crutches in the Superdome with an ankle injury suffered in the Sugar Bowl—a game it would’ve been quite understandable if he’d skipped, given his high draft status, but that he wanted to play. The extent of the injury was unclear Saturday night in terms of long-term damage, though Lane Kiffin announced an X-ray came back negative. Hopefully it’s nothing that compromises Corral’s ability to work out or perform for scouts in the coming months.

Anyone who has seen Corral play would say he loves football. But he would have had that passion questioned if he’d chosen to sit out the Sugar Bowl. He also would have entered the next chapter of his career without a limp.

On a day when the leading voice in the sport criticized players for opting out of bowl games, a top-10 Heisman Trophy vote-getter and potential first-round NFL draft pick showed the world why players skip them. Because sometimes players end up on crutches and in tears on the sidelines. Depending on the severity of the injury, Corral could be the next cautionary tale.

Players already have heard about Notre Dame linebacker Jaylon Smith shredding a knee in the 2016 Fiesta Bowl and falling out of the first round of the draft. They’ve heard about Michigan tight end Jake Butt suffering a similar knee injury a year later in the Orange Bowl. They’ve seen enough bad things happen in games that become more irrelevant every year.

Butt, who retired from the NFL last summer after an abbreviated career, appeared just a couple of weeks ago on a Detroit-based podcast to discuss players opting out of bowl games. He said he didn’t regret his decision to play in the Orange Bowl, but added, “When you’re staring down the barrel and you have four, five, 10-plus million dollars waiting for you … I can’t knock a guy for sitting out.”

But some in the sport still do knock guys for sitting out. And the tone-deaf part of that is the sport’s own role in reducing bowl games to risky, inconsequential sideshows. The people in charge have done the damage, not the players who opt out.

For years, coaches have fled one job for another and dumped bowl obligations along the way. That trend has only accelerated as the hiring-and-firing cycle has encroached further into the regular season. The early signing period, implemented a few years ago, has become the most important event in December for non-playoff teams—that’s why the new coach has to be in place as soon as possible, and that’s why the bowl coaching duties are passed off to an interim guy.

So if the schools don’t care about the bowls, and the coaches don’t care about the bowls, explain to me why the aspiring NFL players who take on all the injury risk are supposed to care?

As Jason Gay of the Wall Street Journal astutely and acidly pointed out Saturday , ESPN has done plenty to devalue the bowls it broadcasts. The network broadcasts the College Football Playoff, which has dwarfed the rest of the postseason. It also has been vital in hyping the NFL scouting combine and pro days, creating months of draft-related programming and billing it all as vital steps toward players’ future prospects.

This is part and parcel of a system so bloated on greed and excess that it cannot even recognize its own double standards. We needed 40-plus bowl games because ESPN wanted the TV inventory and schools wanted the payouts and coaches wanted the bonuses. But we also needed a Playoff because it would create scads of new revenue on top of the bowls. And that new revenue is necessary to build every imaginable facility and employ small armies of staff while paying the head coach $90 million over 10 years—and at a salary like that, he’s got to get to work and can’t be bothered finishing a season in the Valero Alamo Bowl, sorry.

Excess is also what puts Herbstreit into such on-air ubiquity that it dramatically increases his opportunities to say something regrettable. His current schedule is just stupid, yet ESPN is celebrating it: GameDay and the Orange Bowl in South Florida Friday, an overnight flight to California for more GameDay and the Rose Bowl Saturday, and then an NFL/CFP championship game double-dip the following weekend.

I like Herbstreit personally, and he’s a great part of college football. But is he so invaluable that he had to do two on-site studio shows and two games in a span of less than 36 hours on two different coasts? That’s just nonsensical, and yet it’s accepted practice. It can be hard to articulate well on live TV when exhausted.

I don’t know if more rest would have saved Herbstreit from himself Saturday. But the days of vilifying college football players for not participating in games that have never mattered less should be over.

In a sport with a better postseason—an expanded Playoff—there would be more relevant games and higher participation by the best players. The power brokers in charge only have themselves to blame for coming up with the badly flawed current system. Don’t blame the players for not buying into it.