We will go ahead with our tradition of picking playoff games, not that we’ve been very good at it.

AFC

(7) Colts at (2) Bills – Bills favored to 6.5 points

Sat., 1:05 p.m. ET, CBS

We think emotion will carry the Bills to a fairly overwhelming win.

(5) Ravens at (4) Titans – Ravens favored by 3.5 points

Sun, 1:05 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN

We think the Titans are a tough, tough out in the playoffs and will win.

(6) Browns at (3) Steelers – Pittsburgh favored by 6

Sun., Jan. 10, 8:15 p.m. ET, NBC (stream on fuboTV, try for free)

The Steelers aren’t very good right now, but Cleveland really has some problems being organized for the game.  Pittsburgh will win.

NFC

(6) Rams at (3) Seahawks – Seattle favored by 3.5 points

Sat., 4:40 p.m. ET, FOX

Seattle will win a close game.

(5) Buccaneers at (4) Washington – Tampa Bay favored by 8.5 points

Sat., 8:15 p.m. ET, NBC

The Buccaneers will win substantially, although perhaps not by more than 8 points.

(7) Bears at (2) Saints

Sun., 4:40 p.m. ET, CBS/Nickelodeon/Amazon Prime – New Orleans favored by 10

The Saints will win this.

Not very exciting, but we are going with five home teams and the Buccaneers.

NFC NORTH

GREEN BAY

Lambeau Field will be rocking, at least more than it has all season, when the Packers host their Divisional Playoff Game next week.  Richard Ryman in the Green Bay Press-Gazette:

Green Bay Packers fans have gotten their second-fondest wish; second, that is, to a Super Bowl victory. More than 6,000 fans will be allowed to attend the Packers first playoff game.

There is a big caveat, though. Tickets will be sold only to season ticket holders who said they’d be willing to buy them despite the coronavirus pandemic, and the tickets will not be transferable, which means no sales on the secondary market.

The Packers are scheduled to host the lowest-seeded surviving NFC team the weekend of Jan. 16-17. If they win, they will host the NFC championship game on Jan. 24. The decision on fans is for Jan. 16-17 only. A decision on how many fans will be allowed in the stadium for the championship game will be made later.

So far, the Packers have had 1,000 or fewer employees and front-line workers and their families in the stands for recent home games. They’ve used those games to test their safety protocols.

“We’ve seen our COVID-19 protocols in action and are confident we can safely add additional fans,” said Packers President and CEO Mark Murphy. “Our players have enjoyed the energy provided by the limited fans we’ve had over the past four games.”

The Packers, the No. 1 seed in the NFC, have a bye this weekend. Of the six games scheduled for the wild card round, two will host limited numbers of ticketed fans.

New Orleans, Tennessee and Buffalo will have ticketed fans, but Seattle, Pittsburgh and Washington will not. Kansas City, which has the first-week bye in the AFC, hosted limited numbers of fans throughout the season.

The Packers did not allow ticketed fans at games during the regular season because of the coronavirus pandemic. The team allowed employees’ families to attend the previous four home games, and invited health care workers and security personnel and their families to the final two regular-season games at Lambeau Field as well.

NFC WEST

SAN FRANCISCO

This on Coach Katie Sowers from Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com:

Katie Sowers, one of the NFL’s first full-time female assistants and its first openly gay coach, will not return to the San Francisco 49ers next season, she said on social media Thursday.

Her contract is expiring after four seasons with the team as an offensive assistant, primarily working alongside receivers coach Wes Welker with that position group.

“Dear Faithful, We have been through so much together over the last 4 years and words will never express how much your love and acceptance meant to me,” Sowers posted on Instagram on Thursday. “I will forever cherish the memories and hearing your stories throughout the years. Together, we made a difference in this world. You were there every step of the way..from my first day at Levi’s , to the super bowl, and even when my Dad passed away. You all supported me through it all.

“Change is inevitable in this life.. enjoy every minute and cherish the memories because time will pass you by faster than you know. One last walk out of the tunnel. I am forever grateful for my time in SF… until we meet again #foreverfaithful ����“

After spending the 2016 season as an intern with the Atlanta Falcons, Sowers joined the 49ers as part of their 2017 Bill Walsh NFL Coaching Diversity Fellowship. At the conclusion of that program, the team retained her as a seasonal offensive assistant.

For the past three seasons, Sowers, 34, has served as an offensive assistant, making her the franchise’s first full-time female coach and the second full-time female assistant coach in league history.

While her role with the Niners mostly had her working with receivers, she also had a hand in game preparation with all offensive skill players.

LOS ANGELES RAMS

Hall of Famer Isaac Bruce is trying to get the Rams interested in disgruntled (in Houston) QB DESHAUN WATSON.  TMZ.com:

Issac Bruce says if he were runnin’ the Rams show … he’d dump Jared Goff for Deshaun Watson — telling TMZ Sports a potential trade with the Texans would be a no-brainer for him.

“I’d love to see it, I’m just going to be honest,” the Rams legend says. “I think Deshaun Watson is a great talent. He can throw the football well. He’s a competitor.”

“You don’t have to worry about if this guy is going to show up on Sunday. At all.”

Of course, a Houston-Los Angeles trade would take a LOT of dominoes to fall … first, the Texans would have to be willing to jettison their star QB — even if he’s as disgruntled as some reports say he is.

Second, the Rams would have to get creative with contracts considering Goff’s massive deal … AND they’d likely have to come up with a bunch of draft picks to give away as well.

But, Bruce says if there’s any way L.A. can make it work … the Rams should do it and not think twice.

“If Les [Snead] can pull it off, man,” Bruce said of the Rams’ general manager, “I’d be jumping on the table as well to make it happen.”

As for Bruce’s feelings on Goff going forward … you can tell, Isaac ain’t exactly Jared’s #1 fan.

In fact, the Hall of Fame receiver tells us if he were coaching the team in this weekend’s playoff game against the Seahawks … he’d start John Wolford over Goff.

AFC NORTH

CLEVELAND

The Browns are playing Sunday for missing G JOEL BITONIO, who seems to be quite a guy.  Nick Shook of NFL.com:

The Browns are in the playoffs for the first time since the 2002 season, an achievement the franchise’s longest-tenured active player should be entitled to enjoy.

Joel Bitonio will not be able to do so this weekend because of a positive COVID-19 test that has ruled him out of Sunday night’s meeting with Pittsburgh. His teammates have spent the week working virtually due to the organization’s continued COVID-19 issues, but they’re still on the same page with at least one common goal: This one’s for Joel.

“He’s important to our team,” receiver Jarvis Landry said Thursday, via Cleveland.com. “He’s important to the Cleveland Browns and the history that we’ve accomplished this year. It sucks what he’s going through to be able to be here for the time that he’s been here and now be in this position and he can’t even play the game because of the circumstances.

“For us a team, obviously, we know how much this game means to Joel and what he would give to be out there. That’s definitely something that we all have in mind. That is definitely something my man (guard Michael) Dunn is going to have in mind playing guard and giving it his best shot out there.

“This is definitely one for Joel, absolutely.”

Drafted in the second round of the 2014 draft out of Nevada, Bitonio has proven to be a rock-solid guard over the course of his career with the Browns, often serving as one of the very few bright spots on a team that went from 7-9 in 2014 to 0-16 just three seasons later. Bitonio has been in Cleveland through it all, existing as a steady veteran voice amid seemingly constant chaos, and his moment in the sun (or under the playoff spotlight) should’ve been Sunday night.

He’ll instead watch it from home as his team takes the field at less than even close to 100 percent due to COVID-19 for a third straight week.

“I know we have other guys missing, but for Joel — somebody who’s a great person, a great leader, a father, a great husband — to have put in his time here, endured a lot of things, the longest-tenured Brown and to not be able to play in the first playoff experience, it is very unfortunate,” quarterback Baker Mayfield said. “We feel for him. That would be the only thing taking away from the excitement.”

Bitonio has been as reliable on the field as he’s been off it, leading whoever the front office has determined will share a locker room with him by example and by vocal direction. The three-time Pro Bowler has navigated the franchise’s often-public struggles diplomatically and been a favorite of local reporters, who twice selected him for their Good Guy Award, carrying on an example set by former teammates Joe Thomas, Alex Mack and Mitchell Schwartz. He’s been just as important in the community, frequently spending his off days participating in the Browns’ organized events to engage with and serve those who call Cleveland home. And in a cruel twist of fate, now that his team is competitive, he can’t participate in the most important professional game of his career.

AFC SOUTH

HOUSTON

The Texans promised QB DESHAUN WATSON a role in the coaching search.  Presumably after talking to good friend QB PATRICK MAHOMES, he gave them one name – Chiefs OC Eric Bienemy (not at all a silly, off-the-wall name).  Everyone else is interviewing Bienemy, but not the Texans.  It’s enough to make Watson mad.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

And now we know why Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson is telling teammates he may ask for a trade.

A flood of reports has emerged on Thursday night, as reported have chased the story teed up earlier today by our item raising the question of whether Watson wants out. It’s now clear that he does.

Albert Breer of SI.com supplies another reason for Watson’s consternation. Per Breer, Watson advocated for the Texans to hire Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy. The Texans, however, became the only team with a vacancy to not even interview Bieniemy.

Breer explains that Mahomes “put in a strong word” for Bieniemy, which prompted Watson to push for Bieniemy. The Texans, who had said they’d consult with Watson, ignored Watson’s suggestion. And that undoubtedly has contributed to the consternation and frustration that Watson is currently feeling.

Although the Texans claim they won’t trade Watson, they may have no choice. Especially once they start getting offers that they may not be able to refuse. Now that the cat is out of the bag, it’s inevitable that new G.M. Nick Caserio’s phone will be ringing.

Adam Schefter’s info focuses more on Caserio’s hiring without any input from Watson:

Last offseason, Houston didn’t let Watson know that star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins would be traded, which led to some disappointment. Now that it has happened again, Watson is said to be infinitely more bothered, sources told ESPN.

This time, Watson had met with Texans owner Cal McNair in several instances, sharing thoughts on certain candidates who came highly recommended, with Watson suggesting that the team at least talk to them, sources told ESPN. He did not expect Houston to hire those he endorsed, but Watson was hoping the Texans would respect the feelings of the group of teammates he was trying to represent, sources told ESPN.

The Texans, however, did not act on their quarterback’s thoughts and charged ahead with a hire that mattered to a much smaller circle than the one Watson was trying to aid, sources told ESPN.

Even if the Texans didn’t want to move forward with any of Watson’s recommended candidates, sources told ESPN that Watson wanted to at least have the opportunity to meet with ownership’s finalists so he could offer thoughts from a player standpoint to benefit the team — and then the Texans could hire who they wanted. That opportunity never came.

Now the focus turns to the fallout from the situation. The Texans clearly have an unhappy quarterback on their hands as they welcome Caserio to their franchise to try to help rebuild it.

There already has been speculation that Watson could demand a trade, though Caserio is only just starting his job and the team still doesn’t have a head coach. If the team were to trade Watson, it would have to absorb a salary-cap charge of $22 million, though it could get back a bounty of NFL draft picks and players.

But the mess that Caserio was hired to clean up is actually larger because of the events that surrounded his hiring, as it now includes a disillusioned franchise quarterback.

Colts DC Matt Eberflus is glad to interview for other jobs, just not Houston:

Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus has turned down the Texans’ request to come in for an interview for their head coaching vacancy.

The Texans initially sought permission to interview Eberflus before hiring General Manager Nick Caserio, Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle reports.

Although no reason has been given for why Eberflus turned the Texans down, it raises the question of whether he’s leery of the issues going on in Houston, where many people around the league have concerns about the direction the franchise has gone in since Jack Easterby, the team’s executive vice president of football operations, got owner Cal McNair’s ear. The hiring of Caserio, who has long been close to Easterby, strongly suggests that Easterby is calling the shots. And Eberflus may not be interested in coaching for a team run by Easterby.

Also concerning about the Texans is the possibility that Deshaun Watson, the franchise quarterback who is by far the team’s most valuable asset, is unhappy in Houston.

Eberflus is still scheduled to interview with the Jets and Chargers, so he wants a head-coaching job. Just not the Texans job.

As you might recall, Eberflus was hired to be the Colts DC by Josh McDaniels, another member of Easterby’s coaching mafia, before McDaniels opted to remain in New England.

JACKSONVILLE

Urban Meyer wants $12 mil per year to run the Jaguars.  The team will interview him.  Michael Baca of NFL.com:

The Jacksonville Jaguars are planning to meet with Urban Meyer on Friday to discuss the team’s head coaching vacancy, sources tell NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero and NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport.

No deal is imminent with Meyer, Pelissero adds, and the team still has at least one interview scheduled.

The Jaguars have already interviewed Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy and Falcons interim coach Raheem Morris, with 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh scheduled for Saturday.

Jaguars owner Shad Khan intends to run a thorough process and consider all options, according to Pelissero, who stressed there is no deal in place with Meyer or anyone else, per a source.

The Jaguars fired Doug Marrone last week after a 1-15 campaign and are also looking for a new general manager after firing Dave Caldwell during the season.

The Jaguars hold the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Meyer, 56, is one of the most accomplished college head coaches in recent memory, leading the Florida Gators to two National Championships in 2006 and 2008, and the Ohio State Buckeyes in 2014. Meyer retired from Ohio State two years ago citing health reasons and worked this year as a college football analyst for FOX.

AFC EAST

BUFFALO

Governor Andrew Cuomo is un-welcome at the Bills game, but RB TAIWAN JONES has specially invited Valentino Dixon, a victim of New York State injustice.  Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.com:

While the Buffalo Bills spent the past 25 years without hosting an NFL playoff game, Valentino Dixon spent most of it imprisoned for a crime he did not commit.

Dixon, a big Bills fan, missed most of the team’s Super Bowl runs in the 1990s and its most recent home playoff game, in 1996.

Bills running back Taiwan Jones is making sure Dixon won’t miss the next one.

After it was announced that Bills Stadium would open for the first time all season, Jones gifted Dixon tickets to the Bills’ wild-card game Saturday against the Indianapolis Colts. It’s the latest in a series of highlights in Dixon’s life since he was exonerated and released from prison in 2018 after serving 27 years at Attica Correctional Facility in New York.

Raised on Buffalo’s East Side, Dixon, 51, was arrested and convicted of murder in 1991 despite no physical evidence linking him to the crime. While imprisoned, Dixon turned to art, drawing thousands of pictures of golf courses despite never playing the game, even having his story and his artwork published by Golf Digest.

A group of undergraduate students at Georgetown University made a documentary on Dixon’s wrongful conviction and imprisonment, which eventually led to his exoneration.

Jones first became aware of Dixon’s story at the beginning of the 2020 season. He wanted to do something for him, but with New York state’s and Erie County’s COVID-19 protocols limiting which businesses were open throughout most of the year, it was difficult for him to figure out exactly how to reach him.

“I was already kind of emotional just with everything going on in the world,” Jones said. “I was reaching out to different organizations within Buffalo to see what I could do to make a difference. When I first read his story, man, it was touching and heartbreaking. I definitely wanted to do something for him.”

The Bills special-teams stalwart got in contact with Dixon and said he was blown away by the attitude of a man who had every reason to be angry at the world.

“When he called, it was like talking to an old friend. Our conversation was real genuine,” Jones said. “I think what stood out the most was that he didn’t have any grudge in him. He sounded like he was just real happy with where his life is today. I was just so amazed at where he’s at emotionally and mentally.

“He definitely showed a lot of character of who he is, because he’s just a happy dude. He didn’t know me or what I was going to do for him and he just had so much enthusiasm. I was happy to be able to do something to make him happy.”

Jones, 32, shared the contents of their conversation with his teammates, including 27-year-old wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who, like Jones, struggled to comprehend spending so much time behind bars for a crime one didn’t commit.

Dixon told ESPN he “refused” to be broken by his time in prison.

“I had to stay that way — I mean, I was born that way,” Dixon told ESPN. “Prison was designed to break my spirit, and I refused to allow that to happen. I was the one who encouraged everyone else to keep hanging in there.”

While in prison, Dixon’s love for the Bills never wavered, nor did his passion for football. He said he played wide receiver in Attica’s football league for 20 years, winning five championships.

He said those ties to the game made it “a dream come true” to hear from Jones.

“In prison, there’s just a few of us that are really good, so I had my way,” Dixon told ESPN. “I’d just tell them to throw it up, I’ll run up under it and get it. I’d usually leave guys 5 to 10 yards back — at 41 [years old], I was still the fastest one on that team. I was the Jerry Rice of that league.”

Saturday’s game will mark Dixon’s second Bills game, the first being a preseason game when he was 11. As a kid from the inner city, Dixon called the experience “something you never forget” and one he has held on to for the past 40 years.

NEW YORK JETS

The dance continues among the top coaching candidates as Robert Saleh goes to New York.  Brian Costello of the New York Post:

The Jets have an interview set with one of the top candidates in this head coaching hiring cycle – 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh.

The team will interview Saleh on Friday, according to the NFL Network.

Saleh, 41, is one of the most sought-after coaches right now. He has already interviewed with the Falcons and Lions and is scheduled to interview with the Chargers and Jaguars, as well.

Saleh has overseen the San Francisco defense since 2017. The 49ers were decimated by injuries this past season, but his unit still performed well, finishing fifth in total defense and fourth in passing defense. He was named the assistant coach of the year by The Sporting News in 2019 after his defense finished first in passing defense, allowing a minuscule 169.2 passing yards per game. They were eighth in total defense and the won the NFC.

THIS AND THAT

THE NFLPA AND THE DEAL

ESPN.com on the five old guys starting at QB:

If Ben Roethlisberger says it’s OK to say it, then go ahead and call these NFL playoffs the year of the “old guys.”

And Big Ben isn’t even the oldest.

The NFL’s five oldest starting quarterbacks are all still playing, while some of the future stars, such as Kyler Murray and Deshaun Watson, are at home watching.

This postseason, which begins Saturday with wild-card weekend, marks the first time five quarterbacks age 37 or older will start in the same playoffs in NFL history. That’s Tom Brady (43), Drew Brees (41), Philip Rivers (39), Roethlisberger (38) and Aaron Rodgers (37).

“All the old guys,” Roethlisberger said this week. “I know you didn’t want to use those words. I’ll say it for you. It’s cool. It’s fun to be a part of it with them. If we were sitting at home and people were talking about the old guys that are still playing — why aren’t you a part of it — then you would be disappointed. To be a part of it, to be in this tournament, as coach [Mike Tomlin] calls it, it’s an honor and a pleasure to be able to do it. I am hoping that it’s not one and done. We are going to give it everything we have so I can be the last old man standing.”

The five “old guys” have made a combined 107 playoff starts, but this is the first time all five have been in the playoffs in the same year.

One of those five has led the NFL in touchdown passes in 10 of the past 14 seasons, with Rodgers doing it this year (48). All five are in the top eight in all-time touchdown passes. According to Elias Sports Bureau research, not even four of the top 10 all-time leaders have ever started in the same postseason.

They have combined to win 10 of the past 20 Super Bowls, although other than Brady none has made it to the Super Bowl since Rodgers and Roethlisberger faced each other 10 years ago.

BROADCAST NEWS

FOX exec Michael Mulvihill appears in this look from FrontOfficeSports on the NFL’s 2020 ratings:

The NFL suffered its first full season television drop in three years, with average game audiences falling 8% for the 2020 regular season.

During Week 17, NFL game telecasts averaged 16 million viewers, down 7% from the same week in 2019.

That means for the 2020 regular season, NFL games averaged 15.1 million viewers, down 8% from 16.4 million for the 2019 regular season. This season’s decline comes after two consecutive years of 5% increases.

Still, the league continues to be the TV gold standard for U.S. sports.

The NFL generated 82 of the top 85 sports TV audiences in 2020, according to Sports Media Watch. The only exceptions were three college football telecasts last January: the Oregon-Wisconsin Rose Bowl; the Alabama-Michigan Citrus Bowl; and LSU-Clemson CFP National Championship.

It’s difficult to make a straight apples to apples comparison between the past two seasons. The pandemic upended NFL game scheduling to such an extent the league was forced to play games every day of the week for the first time.

It’s a credit to the NFL and its TV partners that they made it through the 256-game season without having to cancel a single game.

“The most remarkable thing about this NFL regular season is that it happened at all,” said Mike Mulvihill, executive vice president and head of strategy for Fox Sports. “In the context of the pandemic, when most of the industries that are major contributors to American culture have been largely or completely shut down, I think that getting all our games in, and posting just a -6% viewership decline, is extremely positive.” 

The league’s decrease was also modest compared to double-digit declines for other sports, noted Sports Media Watch, including the Stanley Cup Finals (-61%), the final round of the Masters Tournament (-58%), NBA Finals (-49%) and World Series (-30%). 

The stakes are high for the NFL. All of the league’s media deals expire after the 2021 and 2022 seasons.

There are potentially billions of dollars at stake as the NFL tries to nearly double its $5 billion annual rights fees from media partners Fox, ESPN, CBS and NBC.

Still, some media executives worry this season’s falloff augurs a return to the 2016 and 2017 season — when average audiences fell 8% and 10%, respectively.

But Mulvihill is happy with the numbers during a “very challenging” year. 

“I’d also note that both Sunday afternoon packages [on Fox and CBS] came in slightly ahead of where they were two years ago,” he said. “Again, that’s a tremendous achievement in the context of 2020. [Fox’s Sunday afternoon] ‘America’s Game Of The Week’ defended its title as TV’s most-watched show for a 12th straight year — and the NFL put even more distance between itself and everything else in the media.”

TODD McSHAY’s 2021 MOCK DRAFT

Here is our 1^st Mock Draft of calendar 2021 from Todd McShay of ESPN.com:

The 2020 NFL regular season is complete. There is just one college football game still to be played — Monday’s College Football Playoff National Championship between Alabama and Ohio State. Eighteen of the 32 NFL teams know where they will be selecting in the 2021 NFL draft and have turned their attention there. So it sure seems like a good time to predict how the first round will play out in April.

It’s still very early. This month’s Senior Bowl will provide scouts a chance to see players who didn’t have much tape this year in a shortened season, and the NFL scouting combine will be teams’ first look in more than a year at numerous highly touted draft prospects who opted out of the 2020 season amid the coronavirus pandemic. Evaluators, including myself, still have a lot of tape to watch and a lot of interviews to conduct. Rankings will change, as will the back half of the draft order used here — which was determined by ESPN’s Football Power Index projections.

But this much is for sure at this point, just under four months out: The class is loaded with talent. I currently have 22 players with a 90-plus grade — which I use to identify true first-round prospects — including a handful of quarterbacks. So how will it all happen? Let’s predict the opening 32 picks of the 2021 NFL draft, starting with a one-win Jaguars team. And be sure to check out our mock draft special, live on ESPN+ at 5 p.m. ET.

Note: Draft order is set for pick Nos. 1-18. For pick Nos. 19-32, we used projections from ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). Underclassmen are noted with an asterisk.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson*

Did you expect anyone else? I haven’t seen a quarterback prospect quite like Lawrence in almost a decade, and the Jaguars are certainly in the market for one. Gardner Minshew, Mike Glennon and Jake Luton combined for the NFL’s second-worst Total QBR in 2020 (43.7). Jacksonville will have a new general manager and a new coach after losing 15 games, and the 6-foot-6 Lawrence — who has a huge arm, good mobility in the pocket and all the intangibles you could ask for — would give the team a starting quarterback who should soon be among the NFL’s best. Lawrence declared for the draft on Wednesday.

2. New York Jets

Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon*

General manager Joe Douglas has a lot of decisions to make ahead of free agency and the draft, not the least of which is what to do at quarterback. The Jets’ pair of late-season victories made it an even more difficult call. BYU’s Zach Wilson or Ohio State’s Justin Fields could be in play, as could a trade back to stockpile more picks. Moving down would really be the ideal move.

Since we’re not mocking trades this far out, and with Lawrence off the board, I think the Jets will stick with Sam Darnold as their guy under center and build around him. That begins with a game-changing offensive tackle. New York allowed 43 sacks this season, and its rushing attack tied for sixth worst in yards per carry (4.1). Sewell, a 2020 opt-out, would do wonders for both weak spots. And after taking Mekhi Becton in Round 1 in April, the Jets would have a pair of elite tackles bookending the line.

3. Miami Dolphins (via HOU)

DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama

No, I don’t think the Dolphins are drafting another quarterback. I do think they will draft a high-impact player here to give Tua Tagovailoa support. Smith, who caught 83 passes from Tagovailoa over three years at Alabama, is the real deal. He is quick off the line, excellent on vertical shots and able to haul in anything thrown in his direction. Miami managed just 7.1 yards per attempt when targeting a wide receiver this season (27th in the NFL), whereas Smith piled up more than 1,600 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns in 2020 — and the Heisman Trophy winner still has another college game to play.

4. Atlanta Falcons

Zach Wilson, QB, BYU*

Atlanta will have a new head coach and a new GM for the 2021 season, and after it struggled to just four wins in 2020, it could be looking for a complete reboot. The Falcons will need to address running back, parts of the offensive line and the secondary this offseason, so moving back and acquiring some extra picks might be the smart call. However, quarterback Matt Ryan will be 36 years old when next season kicks off, and his contract allows an out after 2022. The chance to draft an heir this high isn’t a guarantee in future years, so could Atlanta make the move here and now?

The decision between Wilson and Justin Fields would be close. It’s perhaps the toughest player-vs.-player debate in the class right now, at least for me. They both compete so well. I’m going with Wilson’s toughness in the pocket and deep-ball prowess, giving the Falcons a signal-caller of the future.

5. Cincinnati Bengals

Rashawn Slater, OL, Northwestern

Just four teams allowed more sacks than Cincinnati this season, not something you want to see right after drafting a franchise quarterback at No. 1 overall. Jonah Williams, a 2019 first-round tackle, is the only entrenched starter on the offensive line at the moment, and with Joe Burrow returning from a knee injury, protection will be even more important in 2021. A 2020 opt-out, Slater projects best as an interior lineman — possibly at center — but he also has experience at both left and right tackle. With Penei Sewell gone, Slater is the top offensive lineman on my board here and will help fix a woeful unit with growing importance to the future success of this Bengals team. But also watch for the Bengals to try to move up to get Sewell.

6. Philadelphia Eagles

Micah Parsons, ILB, Penn State*

The Eagles haven’t drafted an off-the-ball linebacker in the first two rounds since 2012, when they took Mychal Kendricks at No. 46 overall. But wow, is Parsons special. He can drop in coverage, wrap up in run defense or get to the QB when turned loose on a blitz.

While wide receiver remains a problem even after drafting Jalen Reagor in the first round last April — and LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase will be tempting — this WR class is deep and still offers playmakers when Philly is back on the clock on Day 2. Trading back is an option, but if the Eagles stay home, this pick at No. 6 is all about the best player available: Parsons.

7. Detroit Lions

Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU*

Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones Jr. and Danny Amendola are all set to be free agents, and Chase is an explosive route runner with great body control. He opted out in 2020 but set a SEC record for receiving yards in 2019.

Some will point to a defensive need after Detroit allowed a league-worst 419.8 yards per game. Some will argue it is time for a new quarterback, with Matthew Stafford turning 33 and having a potential out on his contract after next season. A new coaching staff and general manager might take the team in a new direction, and maybe that direction is with Justin Fields driving the offense. But it’s tough to ignore how well Chase matches need with value here for the Lions.

8. Carolina Panthers

Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida*

This is another spot where QB could be in play — Teddy Bridgewater struggled down the stretch — as well as an offensive line that will need to navigate free-agency issues. But what about Pitts? He would be a problem for opposing defensive coordinators, bringing size, speed and hands to a position that has lacked a punch for Carolina since Greg Olsen left town. Pitts caught 12 touchdowns in eight games this season at Florida, and he would be a real matchup advantage for offensive coordinator Joe Brady. No team had fewer passing yards when targeting a tight end in 2020 than the Panthers (195). Pitts would join 10 other tight ends to be drafted this high in the common draft era (since 1967).

9. Denver Broncos

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, ILB, Notre Dame

Still no Justin Fields? It’s a legitimate possibility and something I considered heavily here, but I think Denver ultimately will give Drew Lock another year to prove he’s the guy. Cornerback is another position to watch, especially with Alabama’s Patrick Surtain II still out there. But I love Owusu-Koramoah’s range, instincts and suddenness. He found his way into just about every statistical category in 2020, including racking up 11 tackles for loss.

10. Dallas Cowboys

Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama*

What Dallas does in the draft will likely come down to the outcome of Dak Prescott’s contract situation. The Cowboys will know whether they need a QB by the time they’re on the clock; we just don’t know right now. But considering Surtain is still available, and Dallas hasn’t had a shutdown corner in years, this seems almost too easy.

It wasn’t Surtain’s best season, but he has strong instincts and can redirect wideouts where he wants them. Trevon Diggs — Surtain’s former teammate in Tuscaloosa — appears to be a great value pick for Dallas (No. 51 in 2020), but fellow cornerbacks Jourdan Lewis and Chidobe Awuzie could be coming off the books this offseason. On throws outside the hashes, Dallas allowed the fourth-highest opponent QBR in 2020 (83.5).

11. New York Giants

Gregory Rousseau, DE/OLB, Miami-FL*

The Giants managed 40 sacks this season, thanks in large part to Leonard Williams bouncing back and getting 11.5 of them. But few would argue against the Giants needing edge-rushing help to take a much-improved defense to the next level, particularly if they don’t return Williams, who played this season on the franchise tag. Rousseau opted out this season, but he had 15.5 sacks for the Hurricanes in 2019 and has speed and power coming around the corner. Alternatively, offensive line, wide receiver or cornerback could be areas to keep an eye on for New York.

12. San Francisco 49ers

Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech*

The 49ers’ pass defense was a strength this season, ranking fourth in yards allowed per game (207.9). But here’s the list of pending unrestricted free agents at cornerback: Richard Sherman, Jason Verrett, Ahkello Witherspoon, K’Waun Williams and Dontae Johnson. Injuries hurt San Francisco all over this season, but there isn’t a bigger question mark on the team going forward than at corner. Enter Farley, a 2020 opt-out with terrific ball skills. He had four interceptions for the Hokies in 2019.

Could the Niners make a change at QB? Of course, especially if Justin Fields were actually to fall this far. (He is dropping in this mock mainly because there aren’t any trades.) Jimmy Garoppolo is only under contract for two more seasons, has very little guaranteed money still owed to him and has battled injuries during his time with the 49ers.

13. Los Angeles Chargers

Shaun Wade, CB, Ohio State

Los Angeles will deal with a lot of free-agency issues this offseason, with players at key positions on expiring deals. Keep a close eye on what happens in March, because it will determine everything about where the Chargers go with this pick, especially as they hire a new coach. They had one of the stingiest pass defenses in the NFL in 2020, but Casey Hayward Jr. and Chris Harris Jr. will both be turning 32 years old this season. Wade can play inside or outside, and he excels in zone coverage — which the Chargers use at the 10th-highest rate in the NFL.

14. Minnesota Vikings

Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech*

Ezra Cleveland, last year’s second-rounder, has helped the offensive line, but the Vikings still need a dominant tackle. They were one of 12 teams that allowed quarterback pressure on at least 30% of their dropbacks. Darrisaw is a talented left tackle who has power as a pass protector and can get to the second level to help block for Dalvin Cook in Minnesota’s zone run schemes. Other possibilities might include pass-rush aid — the Vikings had the fifth-fewest sacks in 2020 with 23 — or a safety.

15. New England Patriots

Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State*

OK, it’s time. And what a terrific outcome this would be for coach Bill Belichick. Fields fell to No. 15 here because we aren’t doing trades in this mock. There’s little chance he makes it this far down the board, especially after his six-touchdown performance in the Sugar Bowl quieted some big-game concerns. Someone will move up to get him.

But what a nice fit Fields makes in New England. The Patriots tied the Giants for the fewest passing touchdowns in the NFL this season with 12, and New England joined the Broncos as the only teams with more interceptions thrown than TDs (14). Cam Newton, who was largely ineffective this season, will turn 32 in May and is set to be a free agent again. Jarrett Stidham doesn’t appear to be the guy, either. Tom Brady is no longer walking through that door, and it’s a different era for the Patriots’ passing offense. Fields would change that, with plenty of zip on his vertical shots and an ability to create when things break down.

16. Arizona Cardinals

Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson

Etienne is a home run hitter with fantastic contact balance and improving pass-catching ability. The Cardinals’ rushing offense was top 10 in yards per game in 2020, but much of that was from quarterback Kyler Murray, who accounted for more than a third of the team’s gains on the ground. Arizona’s running backs had the 19th-best yards per carry (4.16), and lead back Kenyan Drake played the season on a transition tag — and he isn’t under contract for 2021. Etienne would join Murray and DeAndre Hopkins in what would be one of the league’s most dangerous offenses.

17. Las Vegas Raiders

Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama*

Didn’t the Raiders just draft Henry Ruggs in the first round last year? Didn’t they then take Bryan Edwards in the third? Yes, but this team still needs playmakers on offense. Nelson Agholor is likely to be a free agent, and Edwards hasn’t yet taken the step. Waddle missed most of the 2020 season — though he could return Monday for the national championship game — but he is arguably the most explosive wide receiver in the nation. He would give coach Jon Gruden yet another speedy problem to throw at opponents and also help one of the NFL’s worst kick-return units. Thanks to a busy 2020 offseason and some secondary-friendly draft classes, there aren’t too many other glaring needs. However, the Raiders’ 21 sacks were the league’s fourth fewest, and it’d be a good spot to start looking at additional pass-rushers.

This would mark the sixth time a school has sent two wide receivers off as first-round picks in the same year (DeVonta Smith being the other), and after two Alabama WRs also went in the first in 2020 — including Ruggs — Alabama would become the first school ever to have two WRs go in the first round twice, let alone in back-to-back years.

18. Miami Dolphins

Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota*

How badly does Tua Tagovailoa need playmakers around him in Miami, as he had at Alabama? I’m giving the Dolphins two first-round wide receivers, something no team has done in the common draft era. DeVonta Smith starts that process at No. 3, and Bateman continues it at No. 18. Among 33 qualified quarterbacks, Tagovailoa ranked 31st in QBR when targeting a wide receiver (60.8) this season. Bateman would provide him with a tenacious middle-of-the-field presence, and he has great hands. Smith, Bateman, DeVante Parker and Preston Williams would give Tagovailoa’s offense some oomph.

19. Washington Football Team

Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State*

Here we are again, two years after Washington selected Dwayne Haskins in the first round. It didn’t work out. And while Alex Smith has completed an inspiring comeback and led Washington to the playoffs, he isn’t the future of this team. Smith averaged just 5 air yards per attempt this season. Coach Ron Rivera needs to be thinking about the direction he wants to take his roster, and Lance would give him a QB to develop. The third-year sophomore had a one-game season in 2020, and he never saw an FBS opponent in his career. But he has strong downfield touch and can tuck and run, and he went the entire 2019 season without an interception.

20. Chicago Bears

Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss*

Well, Mitchell Trubisky might be playing his way back onto the Bears’ 2021 roster — and with four quarterbacks off the board already here, there wouldn’t be too many options if Chicago chose to go that route. I’ll be watching to see what Chicago does in free agency at QB or if the Bears attempt to trade up at all. Regardless, the Bears need weapons to get this offense closer to the talented defense’s level. Worse, Allen Robinson is a pending free agent. Moore could be an excellent pick here, bringing speed and an ability to work the middle of the field. He trailed only DeVonta Smith in catches and receiving yardage this season.

21. Indianapolis Colts

Mac Jones, QB, Alabama*

A fifth quarterback! Only once in the common draft era have five QBs been drafted in the first 21 picks: 1999, when Tim Couch led a pack of five in the opening 12 selections. The top end of this signal-caller class is special, and the Colts are squarely in the mix for one of them, with 39-year-old Philip Rivers finishing up his one-year deal. Jacob Eason is the only name on the Colts’ 2021 QB depth chart at the moment. Jones puts excellent placement on deep balls, anticipates well and shows poise in the pocket. His 4,036 yards and 36 touchdown passes both ranked second in the nation this season.

22. Jacksonville Jaguars (via LAR)

Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa*

We went offense in a big way at No. 1 overall, so let’s pivot to defense with the Jaguars’ second pick of Day 1. Nixon has great instincts and agility for his 305-pound size. In recent drafts, Jacksonville has padded the edge with K’Lavon Chaisson and Josh Allen, but the middle of the line still needs help. Its 4.7 yards per carry allowed is tied for fifth worst in the NFL, and Colts running back Jonathan Taylor just gutted the Jags for 253 rushing yards on Sunday. Nixon had 13.5 tackles for loss this season and would be a good building block for the team’s new staff.

23. Cleveland Browns

Zaven Collins, OLB, Tulsa*

The playoff-bound Browns will probably be looking exclusively at the defense here, though wide receiver depth is again something to watch. The secondary could use reinforcements, with Terrance Mitchell, Karl Joseph, Andrew Sendejo and Kevin Johnson finishing their current deals with the team; but remember that Grant Delpit and Greedy Williams will return from the injured reserve next season. A middle linebacker also might be in play. But edge rushing is this team’s biggest hole going forward. Myles Garrett can’t do it alone — he had 12 of Cleveland’s 38 sacks this season — and Olivier Vernon might not be back. Collins, who would be Tulsa’s second first-rounder in the common draft era, has closing burst off the edge.

24. Tennessee Titans

Joseph Ossai, OLB, Texas*

It took a four-sack performance in Week 17 against a woeful Houston offensive line for the Titans not to finish last in the NFL in sacks this season. They still finished third to last with 19. Harold Landry was the only player to have more than three sacks (5.5). The pass rush is the biggest flaw in their playoff roster, so this pick comes down to guys like Ossai, Kwity Paye (Michigan), Joe Tryon (Washington) and Jaelan Phillips (Miami). With a 3-4 defense, I like Ossai’s fit in Tennessee. He had five sacks and 16 tackles for loss this season, showcasing high-end instincts and speed.

25. New York Jets (via SEA)

Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State*

In an effort to continue giving Sam Darnold a better supporting cast — remember, we gave the Jets an elite offensive tackle at No. 2 — let’s go to the wide receiver well. No one in this class separates as well as Olave does, thanks in part to tremendous wheels. He was terrific against Clemson (two touchdowns), and he has gone for 100-plus receiving yards in five of six games so far this season. The Jets’ passing attack ranked second worst in the NFL despite trailing a good deal of the time. No receiver went over 700 yards for them. Jamison Crowder has struggled to stay healthy. Breshad Perriman is potentially headed out of town. And the Jets haven’t had a 1,000-yard wideout since 2015.

26. Baltimore Ravens

Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan

Can Baltimore bring back Yannick Ngakoue? Will it re-sign Matthew Judon and Jihad Ward? What does Calais Campbell, who will be 35 in September, have left in the tank? It might not seem like a problem now, but the edge could be something for the Ravens to target in order to maintain a strength. Paye needs some time to develop, but he had 8.5 sacks over his past 16 games in college, and he could pivot to 3-4 outside linebacker. If not the edge, watch for the Ravens to look at the interior offensive line, potentially Ohio State’s Wyatt Davis.

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama*

It’s noteworthy that Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski are all on expiring deals, but the front seven’s descent into free agency is more eyebrow-raising. Few teams had a better defense in 2020, and no one came close to the Buccaneers’ run-stopping. Their 80.6 rushing yards allowed were 10 better than the second-best team. But Tampa Bay must now figure how to keep from slipping, with Ndamukong Suh, Rakeem Nunez-Roches, Steve McLendon, Lavonte David, Shaquil Barrett and Kevin Minter all looking at the open market on the horizon. That’s a problem. Barmore, a third-year sophomore, shows strong gap control against the run, and he tallied 7.0 sacks this season. The 310-pounder would lighten any offseason losses while lining up alongside Vita Vea.

28. Pittsburgh Steelers

Najee Harris, RB, Alabama

James Conner is playing out the final few games of his rookie deal and might not return. If he doesn’t, running back will be a hole. Benny Snell looked adequate this season when called upon, but Harris is different. His 1,387 rushing yards are third in the FBS this season, and he has averaged two scores on the ground per game. Speed, power, pass-catching and pass-protection ability, Harris brings it all.

On the quarterback front, Pittsburgh could potentially land one of the top five guys, but a deeper option also could be in the mix if Ben Roethlisberger decides to retire and/or the team does not do something in free agency. Offensive line also is a big-time need, so perhaps Wyatt Davis (Ohio State) or Trey Smith (Tennessee) are in the mix.

29. Buffalo Bills

Wyatt Davis, G, Ohio State*

The Josh Allen-Stefon Diggs connection was electric this season, but with Jon Feliciano, Daryl Williams and Brian Winters starring at free agency, the interior offensive line will likely need new blood to keep Allen upright and flinging it to Diggs. Cody Ford will return from a knee injury, but Davis has the 315-pound size, mobility and awareness to make a big impact. In 666 pass-blocking snaps over the past two seasons, Davis has allowed just two sacks.

30. New Orleans Saints

Nick Bolton, ILB, Missouri*

The Saints could use a talent like Bolton, as inside linebacker is perhaps the only question mark on their stout defense. He plays fast and has great instincts in coverage, compiling 95 tackles this season. Sliding him in at the second level would help keep New Orleans’ run defense strong.

31. Green Bay Packers

Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU*

Another mock, another wide receiver to the Packers. Maybe this is the year Green Bay finally does it for Aaron Rodgers. This will be the 11th first-round selection for the Packers since 2012, and the only offensive one was another quarterback (Jordan Love, 2020). Rodgers, the likely MVP, slung it this season, leading the NFL in touchdown passes with 48 and showing no signs of decline — but 18 of them went to Davante Adams. Quite simply, the Packers have to replenish the WR room with game-breakers, and Marshall (who opted out halfway through the 2020 season) can come down with balls in traffic and tack on big yards after the catch.

As an aside, running back will be something to watch on Day 2. Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams might not return to Lambeau Field, and the likes of Michael Carter (North Carolina), Javonte Williams (North Carolina), Chuba Hubbard (Oklahoma State), Trey Sermon (Ohio State) and Kenneth Gainwell (Memphis) could be names to keep an eye on.

32. Kansas City Chiefs

Derion Kendrick, CB, Clemson*

Should the Chiefs repeat as Super Bowl champions, as FPI predicts, they will again be closing down Day 1 of the draft. They went with offense last year, taking Clyde Edwards-Helaire to jump-start the run game. Rejuvenating the offensive line could an option here, to continue keeping the offense dominant. Another pass-rusher could be a smart play too. But with Bashaud Breeland set to hit the open market, cornerback is going to need another boost. L’Jarius Sneed, a fourth-rounder in 2020, played well this season, but getting a guy like Kendrick would shore up the position even more. He is fluid in transition and has former-wideout hands, hauling in three interceptions over two years since making the conversion to defensive back.