The Daily Briefing Friday, July 1, 2022
THE DAILY BRIEFING
CAROLINA Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com has presented his preseason profile of the Panthers. He has them #24 overall, ahead of Detroit, which is not the order the DB would put them:
The Carolina Panthers were 3-0 last season. They got aggressive in the trade market.
They traded tight end Dan Arnold and a third-round pick to Jacksonville for cornerback CJ Henderson and a fifth-round pick. Then they acquired cornerback Stephon Gilmore, a former NFL defensive player of the year, from New England for a sixth-round pick. There was no ambiguity in the building.
“We’re ready to win now,” quarterback Sam Darnold said after the Gilmore trade, according to Darin Gantt of the Panthers’ website. “I think that’s the biggest thing. We’re all aware, we can win games, and we’re capable of doing that. So that’s really the message it sends.”
“I think everyone in this building believes we can win now,” defensive tackle DaQuan Jones said.
“They’re confident we can win right now,” cornerback Donte Jackson said.
No wonder this offseason was so tense. We all know the Panthers took a nosedive. After that 3-0 start, Carolina went 2-12. Darnold, who showed some early promise, fell apart. That made the Panthers’ blind gamble in him, despite clear warning signs from his time with the New York Jets, look horrendous. The offense was putrid and offensive coordinator Joe Brady, not too far removed from being hailed as a genius for his work with Joe Burrow and the LSU offense, was abruptly fired during the season. Coach Matt Rhule survived for another season, but we can assume it was a close call. A report from The Athletic late last season said owner David Tepper was “unhappy and embarrassed” about the Rhule contract two years into it, though Tepper has since supported Rhule publicly. Late last season, fans started chanting “Fire Rhule” … at a Charlotte Hornets game.
The Panthers, unlike when they were off to that hot start last season, weren’t overly aggressive elsewhere in building the roster this offseason. The Panthers had a public pursuit of quarterback Deshaun Watson that came up short, which made things even more uncomfortable. There were some additions but it’s not a much different team from the one that lost its last seven games.
Here’s the lesson: The NFL is hard. Tepper made a fortune in the business world managing hedge funds and he tried to be an immediate success in football through bold, impulsive moves.
He gave Rhule a shocking seven-year, $62 million deal to leave Baylor. He paid quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, then paid Bridgewater to go away so the Jets could trade for Darnold and pay him. His team traded for a couple cornerbacks early last season when things looked good and sent the message they were trying to win now. Then he saw his team lose 12 of 14 to end the season. Tepper’s four Panthers teams have gone 7-9, 5-11, 5-11, 5-12.
“I’ve said it, ‘five years, five years, five years’ from the time Coach Rhule was hired, it’s just building that foundation, having patience to build that foundation, trying to get fans to have patience for that foundation to have sustained winning,” Tepper said, via ESPN.com.
“It’s hard to build that foundation. It’s hard. I have a new appreciation for just how stupid I am sometimes, quite frankly.”
The Panthers are in for what could be a strange season. Fans want Rhule out, and he has five years left on a bloated contract. Darnold is making $18.858 million because Carolina exercised his fifth-year option after trading for him last year. Talk about regrets. Carolina has no obvious quarterback of the future unless rookie third-round pick Matt Corral hits big or there’s a trade before the season.
Christian McCaffrey, undeniably talented, has missed most of the last two seasons with injury and there were trade rumors about him this offseason. But yet, the roster is good enough, with top-end players like McCaffrey, receiver D.J. Moore, cornerback Donte Jackson, safety Jeremy Chinn, edge rusher Brian Burns, linebacker Shaq Thompson and a reworked offensive line, that the team could be much better. The Panthers shouldn’t be bad enough to finish as a bottom-five team in the NFL. Maybe that’s a bad thing given their quarterback situation.
The Panthers are stuck, at least for now. Tepper and his football people have tried to build quickly and that didn’t work. Even a patient approach might require a complete offseason sweep at GM, coach, quarterback and a new face of the franchise if McCaffrey and the Panthers have another rough season.
OFFSEASON GRADE The Panthers re-signed cornerback Donte Jackson to a three-year, $35.2 million deal, and that was their big move. Carolina lost pass rusher Haason Reddick, who led the team with 11 sacks last season, to the Philadelphia Eagles. Stephon Gilmore left after one partial season, though Carolina added to the secondary with safety Xavier Woods. Then there was a focus on fixing the offensive line. The Panthers signed guard Austin Corbett and center Bradley Bozeman, and took tackle Ikem Ekwonu with the sixth overall pick. That should lead to three big upgrades to go with standout tackle Taylor Moton. The Panthers’ other top-100 draft pick was quarterback Matt Corral, and it seems like that will be important to note as this season goes on. The Panthers’ draft class was light because they traded a second-round pick for Sam Darnold and a third-round pick for C.J. Henderson, and the less that’s said about that, the better.
GRADE: C
QUARTERBACK REPORT Sam Darnold, Cam Newton and P.J. Walker started games for the Panthers last season. All three had negative touchdown-to-interception ratios. Darnold is the one who matters for this season, because he was guaranteed $18.858 million and the Panthers had no choice but to retain him. They still tried to trade to Deshaun Watson, and that didn’t work. There were Baker Mayfield and Jimmy Garoppolo rumors, but those never developed. Darnold’s Pro Football Focus grade was 36th among 37 qualified quarterbacks. Ben Roethlisberger was the only one worse, and he retired. Darnold was good early in the season but then regressed to the same bad decisions and inaccuracy that ruined his time with the Jets. Matt Corral could end up being the first rookie QB to start a game this season. Given that Matt Rhule is on the hot seat, he can’t afford to lose games with Darnold throwing interceptions. It’s not crazy to think Corral takes over the job early, plays well with some good talent around him, is in contention for NFL offensive rookie of the year (voters love QBs, after all) and the Panthers feel they have an answer at quarterback. Corral has a good arm and athleticism, and maybe he’s the very rare third-round steal at QB.
BETTING ODDS BREAKDOWN I’ll start by saying I like Matt Corral at 18-1 to win offensive rookie of the year at BetMGM. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if he’s starting sometime in September — it can’t even be ruled out that there’s a Russell Wilson/Matt Flynn situation and Corral wins the job in preseason — though I’d wait to bet it until we’re sure Baker Mayfield or Jimmy Garoppolo won’t be added. I also think Christian McCaffrey at 10-1 to win comeback player of the year is a smart play. (More on him in a moment.) As for the Panthers as a team, their win total is 5.5. I’d lean to the over but with no great confidence. It’s a talented roster but the QB situation is hard to ignore.
FANTASY TAKE From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “DJ Moore has been an excellent NFL receiver from the moment he dropped in 2018, but the end zone has proven elusive. Check the cumulative wide receiver ranks over the past four years — Moore slots seventh in targets, 13th in catches, eighth in receiving yards, but just 46th in receiving touchdowns.
“Moore’s quarterbacks share culpability in this puzzling touchdown slump — he’s caught scoring passes from Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold, Kyle Allen, and the last gasp of Cam Newton. There’s not a plus quarterback in that group. But unless the Panthers magically find a quarterback solution between now and September, it’s hard to imagine Moore spiking in the most important fantasy column. Although Moore’s ADP is reasonable, an eyelash under 50, I can’t get excited about his upside until the Panthers land a circle of trust quarterback.”
STAT TO REMEMBER The Panthers were 4-3 when Christian McCaffrey played last season and 1-11 when he didn’t. With other players maybe you could dismiss that as coincidence, but McCaffrey’s value to the Panthers is undeniable. He is one of the best players in football when he’s healthy. McCaffrey had 1,159 total yards and eight touchdowns in 10 games he has played the past two seasons. He is still excellent when he plays. But he has played just 10 of 33 possible games over two seasons due to ankle, thigh, shoulder and hamstring injuries. Given his size and workload (McCaffrey led the NFL with 403 touches his last healthy season in 2019) it’s easy to wonder if his durability will be an issue the rest of his career. Perhaps the past two seasons have just been freak injuries and bad luck, but things can go bad for running backs in a hurry. McCaffrey signed a four-year, $64 million deal in 2020 and while everyone claimed he’d be the exception to the horrendous recent record of running backs on second contracts, it doesn’t look good after two years. Yet, if he plays all season he could be NFL offensive player of the year. That’s the type of impact he can still have.
BURNING QUESTION
Is DJ Moore the NFL’s most underrated receiver? Moore has had four different regular quarterbacks in four season: Cam Newton, Kyle Allen, Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Darnold. Not great. Moore has also played with Will Grier and P.J. Walker, who each started multiple games the past few seasons, and he had five games last season with a broken-down Newton. But the last three seasons Moore has posted an average of 1,175 receiving yards. He has 301 receptions in four seasons. He is the only receiver in the NFL with 1,200 yards from scrimmage in each of the past three seasons, which speaks to his talent and durability. Yet he’s rarely mentioned alongside the best receivers in the game. A good quarterback could lead to a real breakout and change that narrative, though that seems to be at least a year away.
BEST CASE SCENARIO The Panthers’ 3-0 start last season was fueled by Sam Darnold playing well, Christian McCaffrey making plays and a great defensive effort. Darnold had two 300-yard games and threw only one interception in those first three games. The Panthers beat the Jets and Houston Texans in that stretch, but also had a 26-7 win over the New Orleans Saints that aged well. It wasn’t all a fluke. There is decent talent on the roster and the offensive line might be much better. McCaffrey staying healthy would be enormous. He helps everything, including whoever plays quarterback. Maybe it’s even a quarterback not on the roster. Baker Mayfield has to go somewhere, probably. The Panthers have enough talent to be in playoff contention. They just need a lot to go right at some key spots.
NIGHTMARE SCENARIO Matt Rhule probably should be the favorite to be the first coach fired this season. Starting in Week 3, the Panthers have a five-game stretch that could be trouble: vs. Saints, vs. Cardinals, vs. 49ers, at Rams, vs. Buccaneers. Maybe Carolina can win some in that first stretch of home games, but there could be the type of losing streak that brings about big changes. If Christian McCaffrey can’t stay healthy, we know Carolina struggles without him. The quarterback situation is frightening. When you lose 12 of 14 games the previous season and then don’t have a marvelous offseason, it’s not hard to see the bottom completely falling out.
THE CRYSTAL BALL SAYS… The Panthers shouldn’t be a bottom feeder in the NFL. There are some very good players at each position group. Carolina is a prime example of how being near the bottom of the league at quarterback (and maybe coach, too) can drag a franchise down. The Panthers are probably good enough to win a handful of games, but they’ll come up short of playoff contention. Sam Darnold won’t be the quarterback by the end of the season, whether that’s because the Panthers have made a trade or Matt Corral is getting a shot. Then in the offseason, Carolina will again wrestle with the question of how to build a winner.
NFC WEST
LOS ANGELES RAMS Sean McVay has regrets about the manner in which he shuttled QB JARED GOFF off to Detroit, but believes their reputation has mended somewhat. Cameron DeSilva of USAToday:
When the Rams traded Jared Goff to the Lions for Matthew Stafford, there was a lot of talk about the apparently fractured relationship between Sean McVay and Goff. Jay Glazer even reported that Goff hung up on McVay when he called to inform him about the trade to Detroit.
McVay admits he didn’t handle the trade properly and wishes he would’ve had better communication with Goff leading up to the deal, taking the blame for that aspect of it. But now that we’re further removed from the split, it seems their relationship has mended. McVay said on Mike Silver’s podcast recently that one of the best texts he got after the Rams won Super Bowl LVI was from Goff.
“The thing that shows what a stud and what a class act he really is, is one of the best text messages I got after the Super Bowl was from Jared Goff,” he said. “The further we get away, the more appreciation we’ll have for the great four years we did have together because it was a lot of really good times. He’s a special guy, very good football player that does a great job for the Lions. I thought he played really well down the stretch. You get some guys around him, Josh Reynolds, but all in all, better communication and better clarity is what I would’ve wanted.
McVay maintains a high level of respect for Goff since the two sides split last January, and it appears they’ve gotten on better terms now a year later. He just wishes he would’ve handled the trade a little bit better.
“I didn’t like the outside-in narrative but I think he knows where my heart was and I was glad we were able to connect, sit down, be honest with each other and I think we both have a lot of respect for each other and I wish I had handled it better as a leader for him,” McVay added.
AFC NORTH
BALTIMORE LB JAYLON FERGUSON can be added to the fentanyl death toll. Patrik Walker and Shanna McCariston of CBSSports.com:
Baltimore Ravens linebacker Jaylon Ferguson passed away June 21 at the age of 26. He died from the combined effects of fentanyl and cocaine, a spokesman for the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner told The Baltimore Sun.
The death was ruled an accident following an autopsy, according to the agency’s spokesman Bruce Goldfarb.
Ferguson was a third-round pick of the Ravens in 2019 who earned his way into the NFL by becoming a star player for Louisiana Tech. In three seasons with the Ravens, Ferguson totaled 67 tackles and 4.5 sacks.
Ferguson was the C-USA Defensive Player of the Year in 2018 and earned first-team All-C-USA honors on two separate occasions — while setting school and NCAA sack records in the process.
After earning MVP honors in the 2018 Hawaii Bowl, the Louisiana native was selected by the Ravens in the 2019 NFL Draft as the 85th overall pick, spending three seasons in Baltimore and ingratiating himself with the city. The Ravens organization issued the following statement after Ferguson’s death:
“We profoundly saddened by the tragic passing of Jaylon Ferguson. He was a kind, respectful young man with a big smile and infectious personality. We express our heartfelt condolences to Jaylon’s family and friends as we mourn a life lost much too soon.”
Ravens head coach John Harbaugh and offensive tackle Ronnie Stanley also shared their thoughts after Ferguson’s passing (via The Baltimore Sun).
“Jaylon was a good-hearted, gentle person who loved his family and his team,” Harbaugh said. “He was a joy to talk with and be around every day. You always wanted to see and talk to ‘Ferg.’ Our prayers and our help go to his family.”
CLEVELAND Former judge Sue Robinson may take her time before a pronouncement about QB DESHAUN WATSON. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:
The three-day hearing in the matter of Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson has ended. So when will Judge Sue L. Robinson issue a decision?
Per multiple reports, she has asked the two sides to submit written briefs in support of their respective positions by Monday, July 11. At that point, she’ll have everything she needs to make a ruling.
When she does, she’ll generate a written document, possibly 20 pages in length or longer. It will make findings of fact that will be binding on the appeals process. She will then apply the Personal Conduct Policy and any other relevant considerations to those facts in order to make a decision.
Our guess (and it’s just a guess) is that a decision will come by Monday, July 25. Then, the appeals process potentially will unfold — unless she decides to impose no discipline at all.
Again, her factual findings will be binding on the appeals process. Those findings also will go a long way toward helping media and fans understand the reasoning for the ultimate decision.
We fully expect the written decision from Judge Robinson to be published. When it comes to players, there’s always transparency. If Watson will be punished not very harshly or not at all, the league needs to hope that Judge Robinson makes a clear and persuasive explanation for the outcome. The league also will need to publish her decision for all to see, not sweep it under the rug like it did with the Commanders situation.
Florio senses that Watson’s camp will launch a PR offensive in the meantime:
It may be too little and too late when it comes to reversing the verdict in the court of public opinion. That may not stop Deshaun Watson‘s camp from trying to do just that.
Currently, there are indications that, as soon as next week, Deshaun Watson’s representatives will launch a media offensive aimed at challenging the lingering allegations against him. With 20 cases officially settled, four lawsuits remain — along with the vague notion that more lawsuits could be filed.
Since the first case began, Watson’s camp has been unable to commence or sustain a P.R. strategy that has secured any real traction among the media or the general public. At this point, there’s only one way to make it happen — by releasing smoking-gun excerpts from witness testimony that reveal serious if not fatal flaws in the allegations against Watson.
It’s unknown whether such evidence exists. If it did, it should have been released previously. Regardless, it’s possible if not likely that the next stage in this 16-month saga will include a far more aggressive effort by Watson’s lawyers and agents to fight back.
There’s a distinct sense of optimism for Watson emerging from the three-day disciplinary hearing before Judge Sue L. Robinson, based on the quality of the evidence submitted by the league in support of its quest for a minimum suspension of one year. If Watson doesn’t receive a significant suspension, there will be a strong negative reaction from some. However, there’s a distinct chance that Judge Robinson’s decision will fall far short of the outcome the NFL wants (indefinite suspension of at least one year).
Although any effort to get Watson’s side of the situation out more aggressively should have happened a while ago, especially since attorney Tony Buzbee has been working the media zealously and effectively since Day One, it makes even more sense to do so now. With Judge Robinson’s decision quite possibly being announced as training camps start to open, and given the potentially seismic reaction to a short suspension or none at all, it becomes critical for everyone involved — Watson, the Browns, the league, the NFL Players Association, and even Judge Robinson — for public expectations to be properly managed to account for the possibility that Watson won’t miss much time at all, if any.
Of course, the ultimate vehicle for making the case to the public will be Judge Robinson’s written decision. It needs to be clear, it needs to be logical, it needs to make sense to the average person who reads it. Unless the four remaining cases go to trial, Judge Robinson’s decision will become the only real adjudication of the facts, allegations, and defenses involving Deshaun Watson. Judge Robinson’s decision will be heavily scrutinized, and it will need to be bulletproof — whatever her decision may be.
Florio also suspects Robinson may not lower the boom in the fashion we’ve come to expect from NFL Justice:
On one hand, Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson has had 24 different women accuse him in civil court of sexual misconduct during massage therapy sessions. On the other hand, Watson was never charged with a crime.
In the middle resides the NFL. Because the Watson case has become the first one to be processed under the league’s new procedure for determining Personal Conduct Policy violations, no one knows what will happen.
The league wants a minimum suspension of one year. (The ongoing dearth of news regarding the proceedings actually has resulted in reporting that the NFL still wants a minimum suspension of one year, the legal equivalent of Chevy Chase’s periodic updates regarding the health of Generalissimo Francisco Franco.) Watson wants no punishment at all.
Retired federal judge Sue L. Robinson has presided over three days of hearings. She’ll make the decision based on the facts, as sufficient proven (or not) by the league.
What are the facts? It’s known that the NFL focused on five claims against Watson. It’s known that no one is claiming that he committed violence or used physical force, against anyone. It’s believed by some that he had a habit/fetish of seeking massages and hoping they would turn sexual.
Given that the Personal Conduct Policy prohibits “assault and/or battery, including sexual assault or other sex offenses” and creates a six-game baseline suspension for “sexual assault involving physical force or committed against someone incapable of giving consent,” where is the basis for punishing Watson for sexual assault, or any kind? Surely, the NFL Players Association has been making that point, all week.
That said, the policy has two important catch-all provisions: (1) “conduct that poses a genuine danger to the safety and well-being of another person”; and (2) “conduct that undermines or puts at risk the integrity of the NFL, NFL clubs, or NFL personnel.” The argument by the league would (or could) be that Watson’s apparent habit/fetish falls under both broad categories. Any maybe it does.
But here’s the problem: Patriots owner Robert Kraft received no punishment at all for a massage that allegedly became something more than a massage. Even though the two cases entail VERY different facts, there’s a common thread of massage-that-became-more. If that behavior wasn’t something that triggered punishment for Kraft, how can it trigger punishment for Watson — especially since the Personal Conduct Policy expressly provides that owners are held to a higher standard?
No one knows how this is going to play out. However, it makes sense to be thinking about the possibility that Judge Robinson will apply the policy as written, that she will apply it strictly, that she will expect the NFL to have credible evidence of one or more violations, and that she won’t be inclined to punish Watson simply for having a habit/fetish of hoping private massages turn sexual when an owner had no league scrutiny after a massage allegedly turned sexual. Put simply, there’s a chance Judge Robinson will impose not much punishment, if any, on Watson.
Of course, if Judge Robinson imposes any punishment at all on Watson, the league can then appeal the decision to the Commissioner, who can increase the punishment. Judge Robinson’s factual findings, which are binding on the appeal process, could paint the Commissioner into a corner.
In other words, if she imposes little or no punishment, the decision likely will come with specific written findings that will make it very difficult to justify increasing the punishment.
John Breech of CBSSports.com on the end game:
If you’re wondering what might happen following this hearing, here are the possible outcomes:
1. No suspension. If Robinson decides Watson did NOT violate the personal conduct policy, then she can simply rule that Watson doesn’t deserve to be suspended. If that happens, then the quarterback would be free to play the entire 2022 season for the Browns. This seems like the least likely scenario, but the NFLPA is going to try and make it happen by arguing that Watson’s punishment should be proportional to the punishments that have recently been handed out to several owners, who are also supposed to follow the personal conduct policy. Watson’s side is expected to point out that Robert Kraft didn’t get suspended for his alleged incident at a massage parlor and that Jerry Jones never got punished even though the Cowboys were admittedly involved in a voyeurism scandal that ended with their top PR guy unexpectedly retiring. 2. Watson gets suspended. If Robinson rules that Watson DID violate the personal conduct policy, then that means the quarterback will definitely be getting suspended. Although the NFL is pushing for an indefinite suspension of Watson that would last at least one year, Robinson doesn’t necessarily have to follow that suggestion. The judge will be free to suspend Watson for whatever length she sees fit.
If we see scenario one happen, then the case is over. The NFL isn’t allowed to appeal Robinson’s decision if she rules that Watson did NOT violate the CBA. Meanwhile, had the two sides come to some sport of settlement prior to the conclusion of this hearing, we obviously wouldn’t see either side appeal the suspension either. CBS Sports NFL Insider Josina Anderson reported last week that settlement talks “fell apart,” and the two sides weren’t too eager to get back to the negotiating table, so that scenario seems to be moot.
If scenario two happens, then the process won’t necessarily be over. If either side doesn’t agree with the length of suspension handed out by Robinson, then they will be free to appeal. For instance, if Watson is suspended for eight games, the NFL could appeal and ask for a full season. On the other hand if Watson is suspended for a year or more, then we’ll almost certainly see his side appeal the decision.
If things reach the appeal stage, that definitely becomes an advantage for the NFL because any appeal would be heard by Roger Goodell or someone who he appoints.
If you’re looking for more information on Watson’s case, we’ve answered several more questions about the situation — like who the Browns QB might be if he gets suspended for the entire season — and you can check that out by clicking here.
AFC SOUTH
HOUSTON If attorney Tony Buzbee, who has orchestrated the fall from grace of QB DESHAUN WATSON, is to be believed, the Texans had some massage therapists who were willing to provide more services than standard massages. Darrelle Lincoln of Total Pro Sports:
Attorney Tony Buzbee had previously stated he would proceed with his vow to sue the Texans for their alleged role in enabling Watson’s alleged misconduct.
Not only did that vow come true on Monday, but it led to even more damning information.
Lakers Interested In Blockbuster Trade For Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving In Package Deal “Today we filed the first case of what will likely be many against the Houston Texans related to Deshaun Watson’s behavior,” Buzbee said in a press release. “Suffice it to say, the overwhelming evidence collected indicating that the Houston Texans enabled Watson’s behavior is incredibly damning. We believe the Texans knew or most certainly should have known of Watson’s conduct. Beyond that, we believe the filing speaks for itself.”
The petition alleges that Watson consistently refused to have massages performed at the team’s facility, and that he refused to utilize the services of the team’s selected massage therapy provider, Genuine Touch. The petition alleges on page two that in June 2020 the owner of Genuine Touch “complained to the Texans that Watson was seeking out unqualified strangers for massages via Instagram,” and that “Watson was putting himself in danger of contracting Covid, or getting himself sued.”
There was also an allegation that some Genuine Touch therapists had sexual relations with multiple players on the Texans. At least one of those therapists were fired for those actions.
“There is an allegation in this lawsuit that at least two Genuine Touch therapists had sexual relations with multiple Texans players, the Texans knew of this activity, and at least one Genuine Touch therapist was fired due to sexual activity with Texans players”
The petition accuses the Texans of turning a “blind eye” to Watson’s behavior, and that the team actually enabled it by providing the NDA, by providing a room at The Houstonian in which Watson underwent massages.
“Watson was a Houston Texans’ employee; individuals within the Texans organization knew or should have known of Watson’s conduct,” the petition contends.
The Texans have issued the following statement regarding today’s development: “We are aware of the lawsuit filed against us today. Since March 2021, we have fully supported and complied with law enforcement and the various investigations. We will continue to take the necessary steps to address the allegations against our organization.”
The DB isn’t quite sure who was specifically damaged by the actions described in this part of Buzbee’s complaint.
INDIANAPOLIS More praise for QB MATT RYAN. Andrew Gould of The Spun:
The Indianapolis Colts will surround Matt Ryan with a young crew of wide receivers.
That group includes rookie Alec Pierce. As he vies for a significant role in 2022, the second-round pick has gotten to learn from a tenured veteran who joins the Colts after 14 seasons in Atlanta.
Appearing on The Pat McAfee, Pierce told the former Colts punter that he immediately took note of “how much older” Ryan is, which he insisted was a compliment to the quarterback’s experience.
“He’s just such a leader .. Seeing how locked in he was, that kind of set the precedent for me Day 1,” Pierce said. “This is the pros now. That’s how you got to come every single day.”
Ryan represents the team’s fifth different starting quarterback in as many seasons, and the 37-year-old isn’t a long-term answer either. Yet he’ll look to steer Indianapolis back into the postseason after falling painfully short with a Week 18 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars last season.
Pierce could prove a key piece to the puzzle. According to Colts Wire’s Kevin Hickey, head coach Frank Reich said he has “high expectations” for the former Cincinnati Bearcats wideout.
“He’s done a good job so he’s going to have to compete for every snap, right? It’s a very competitive group,” Reich said. “But yeah, we’re definitely pushing him. We’re definitely pushing him and want him to compete to get in the mix and get on the field.”
AFC EAST
MIAMI WR TYREEK HILL continues to talk up QB TUA TAGOVAILOA. Josh Alper ofProFootballTalk.com:
Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill got a strong reaction to saying that quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is a more accurate passer than Patrick Mahomes on the first episode of the It Needed to be Said podcast and Tagovailoa got a chance to speak for himself on the latest installment.
Tagovailoa sat down with his new teammate and said it was “crazy” to learn about the trade that brought Hill to Miami. Tagovailoa said that Hill “sets the standard for the receiver room entirely” and the chemistry that’s developing between the two men also came up during the conversation.
Tagovailoa reference questions about his arm strength by joking that it hasn’t been “good enough” because “I’ve been underthrowing him so many times that he’s got people talking about how I can’t throw the deep ball.” Hill chimed in to say that there are no concerns on the chemistry front.
“It’s all good, man,” Hill said. “It’s all good. I just feel that our chemistry will get there. Look, it’s going to be about 2 a.m. one night and you’re gonna wake up and walk in your kitchen and I’m going to be washing your dishes. That’s how good our chemistry is going to be. You’re gonna be like, ‘Reek, what are you doing in here?” I’m trying to get that chemistry and that bond together so you know where I’m at all the time, on the field. So, if a run a 60-yard route and decide to just turn it into a comeback, I just need the ball right there. Our chemistry is going to be on point, just believe that.”
Hill said that he and Tagovailoa have to “turn the city up” and accomplishing that goal “can’t only be about talk.” There’s been plenty of time for that in the offseason, but we’re getting closer to the point of finding out if there’s going to be more than that in Miami this season.
THIS AND THAT
32 UNDERRATED PLAYERS The most underrated players on all 32 teams as picked by the folks atProFootballTalk.com:
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills Devin Singletary, RB Singletary has averaged 211 touches and 5.0 touchdowns the past two seasons and has been a modest producer in typical fantasy football formats. His above-average 4.4 and 4.6 yards per attempt in the past two seasons deserves extra credit behind a bottom-10 run-blocking offensive line with 69% run block win rates. Singletary leads running backs with 200 or more touches with a 23.5% broken tackle rate the past two years, according to Sports Info Solutions charting.
Miami Dolphins Tua Tagovailoa, QB Tagovailoa can be conservative on deep passes. His 7.1-yard average depth of target was the third lowest among quarterbacks with 200 or more pass attempts last season. But that was likely at least partially a strategy to avoid hits behind an offensive line with a 47% pass block win rate that was the worst in football.
And his overall minus-8.5% and minus-0.7% passing DVOA rates in his first two seasons have him on a promising trajectory only slightly below those of Joe Burrow (minus-7.3% and 5.1%), Kyler Murray (minus-3.1% and 4.6%) and Andrew Luck (minus-5.1% and 4.6%) from recent seasons.
New England Patriots Kendrick Bourne, WR With a career high of 74 targets, Bourne has fallen well short of the 100-catch and 1,000-yard benchmarks that earn receivers the most attention. But not even Cooper Kupp or Davante Adams could match Bourne for efficiency last season.
The Patriots receiver led his position (minimum 50 targets) with a 30.1% receiving DVOA. And he ranked in the top 12 at the position with both a 7.0 receiving plus/minus — which estimates that he caught seven more passes than an average receiver with his distribution of targets — and 7.0 average yards after the catch.
New York Jets Carl Lawson, Edge Lawson missed the 2021 season with a ruptured Achilles and underwhelmed with the Bengals in 2020 with just 5.5 sacks. But that most recent sack number belied a total of 58 pressures that was seventh highest among pass-rushers, per Sports Info Solutions charting. He might not always bring a quarterback to the ground, but Lawson disrupts passers with hurries and hits that lead to the incompletions and interceptions that kill drives.
A healthy return in 2022 could spur a Jets jump into the top 10 in pass block win rate. They ranked 16th last season without Lawson and without first-round rookie Jermaine Johnson II.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens Chuck Clark, S The signing of Marcus Williams and drafting of Kyle Hamilton has Ravens fans giddy about the future of the safety position. Clark, though, proves there is nothing wrong with the present. Clark is a strong safety who made big plays (15 defeats, second on the team), was sturdy against the run (his run stop rate was 17th among safeties) and is a strong presence in the pass game (12 passes defensed, including a pair of interceptions).
One of the few Ravens who avoided serious injury in 2021, Clark might not have the hype of the new safeties in Charm City, but he is a key component as the team attempts to get back into the playoffs in 2022.
Cincinnati Bengals Eli Apple, CB Apple might have given up the touchdown that won the Rams Super Bowl LVI. However, he isn’t the first corner Cooper Kupp has caught passes on — and he won’t be the last. Apple played far better than his perception would indicate in 2021. His 60% coverage success rate placed him 17th among all corners (Denzel Ward was 18th), and with 10 passes defensed and two interceptions, Apple was getting his hands on plenty of footballs.
Cleveland Browns Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR Peoples-Jones didn’t have a great 2021, existing in the morass that was Cleveland’s passing game. Indeed, he had a catch rate of just 59%, and didn’t take the big leap many expected of him after he showed flashes as a rookie in 2020. But when he did catch the ball, he was highly efficient — his DVOA was 18th in the NFL among wideouts. Peoples-Jones’ play should be a building block regardless of who is throwing the ball as he enters his pivotal third season.
Pittsburgh Steelers Levi Wallace, CB Wallace was an under-the-radar signing from Buffalo, where he turned in a very strong 2021 season and allowed the Bills to survive the loss of Tre’Davious White to injury. Wallace was sixth in the NFL in yards per pass allowed, was 21st in coverage success rate and was a strong run defender as well. His numbers in a vacuum indicate an elite corner — so why was he available in free agency, and for just two years and $8 million?
Part of it is the perception that the Buffalo defense was so strong that Wallace went along for the ride. Part of it is that he played zone for the Bills and lacks man-scheme skills. And part of it is Wallace’s background — he walked on at Alabama and went undrafted. Buffalo has the players to replace him, while in Pittsburgh he immediately becomes the team’s top corner.
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans Davis Mills, QB Mills navigated a seemingly rough situation in Houston admirably. He finished second among all rookie quarterbacks in regular stats (16 touchdowns) and in advanced metrics (DVOA, DYAR and QBR). He doesn’t have the ability to wow you with arm talent, but Mills did show signs of being an accurate passer while keeping the ball out of harm’s way. With another year under his belt and the Texans beginning to build an offense around him, Mills can continue to improve.
Indianapolis Colts Michael Pittman Jr., WR Pittman was the eighth receiver to come off the board in the 2020 NFL draft, after receivers like Justin Jefferson who can make you fall under the radar. However, he is due for a year finally placing himself in the conversation of top young receivers.
In 2021, Pittman caught 88 passes for 1,082 yards and six touchdowns, and finished 18th in DYAR — a large increase from finishing 64th in 2020. He often wins with his size, and when lined up out wide, his DVOA was 12.1%, the exact same as Davante Adams. With Matt Ryan now under center for the Colts, Pittman is due for a breakout.
Jacksonville Jaguars Christian Kirk, WR Jaguars signing Kirk to a four-year, $72-million deal in the offseason was surprising, but Kirk has quietly been one of the best slot receivers in the league.
In 2021, Kirk finished with a 23.9% DVOA from the slot or tight to the line of scrimmage on 81 passing targets, a number similar to Deebo Samuel on almost the same amount of targets. In the limited time he was on the outside, Kirk was even more successful, posting a 27.7% DVOA. He was in the shadow of DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green on the outside, but Kirk’s ability to become a reliable target for Kyler Murray downfield helped elevate the Cardinals offense. He’ll look to do the same with Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville.
Tennessee Titans Denico Autry, DL Although his fellow defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons might get more attention, Autry should get credit for the defensive turnaround the Titans went through in 2021. In 2020, the Titans finished 24th in the NFL with a pressure rate of 23%, and were 31st in the league in adjusted sack rate.
After signing Autry, the Titans jumped to 15th in pressure rate and 10th in adjusted sack rate. In 2021, Autry had nine sacks and led the Titans in quarterback hurries. He commands attention from an offensive line, freeing up his other teammates. His presence on the defensive line allowed for defensive coordinator Shane Bowen to get creative and free up Simmons and Harold Landry, who both made the Pro Bowl for the first time in their careers.
Autry might not always have his name highlighted, but he is a critical piece behind the Titans’ defensive resurgence and one of the most underrated players at his position.
AFC West
Denver Broncos Tim Patrick, WR Patrick led the Broncos in receiving yards (1,476) and touchdowns (11) over the last two seasons. He has also led Broncos receivers in both DVOA and DYAR in each of the last two seasons, in part because he is so reliable in high-leverage situations. He led the team with 16 first-down catches on third or fourth downs in 2020 and finished second to Courtland Sutton with 11 such catches last season.
Patrick signed a three-year contract extension last November and is slated to be the No. 3 receiver that Russell Wilson has lacked for many years. Sutton and the others may get all the attention, but Patrick’s the guy Wilson will be looking for on third-and-7.
Las Vegas Raiders Fabian Moreau, TE When Darren Waller was injured in the heat of the 2021 playoff chase, backup tight end Moreau stepped up with seven catches for 65 yards against the Browns and four catches for 67 yards against the Broncos in a pair of narrow victories for the Raiders. Moreau’s play down the stretch helped him finish 22nd in the NFL in tight end DYAR, well above big-name tight ends like Zach Ertz, Mike Gesicki and even Waller.
Moreau actually ranked third in the NFL in DVOA and 14th in DYAR in limited action as a rookie in 2019, but he got lost in the shuffle in 2020 when Jason Witten came out of retirement. Witten is gone, and Josh McDaniels loved to deploy lots of two tight end sets during his years in New England. So, look for Waller and Moreau to each get plenty of opportunities in 2022.
Kansas City Chiefs Nick Bolton, LB If the Chiefs defense hadn’t been such a disaster in the first half of the 2021 season, Bolton might have been a popular candidate for the Defensive Rookie of the Year award. Bolton led all rookie defenders with 70 solo tackles and 42 assists last year. Per Sports Info Solutions, Bolton recorded 60 tackles short of a first down on rushing plays and allowed just 14 catches for 131 yards on 21 pass targets. Solid numbers for any linebacker, let alone a rookie for a shaky defense.
The Chiefs are trying to rebuild their defense around younger players like first-round picks George Karlaftis and Trent McDuffie in the wake of last season’s disappointing finish. Bolton should emerge as a leader for a unit that will be expected to grow up in a hurry.
Los Angeles Chargers Matt Feiler, G Left tackle Rashawn Slater earned Offensive Rookie of the Year award notice while protecting Justin Herbert’s blind side. Center Corey Linsley was named to the Pro Bowl while establishing himself as one of the Chargers’ veteran leaders. But left guard Feiler quietly had an outstanding season in his own right while blocking between them. Feiler ranked 16th in ESPN’s pass block win rate. His blown block rate on all plays of 1.6% ranked 16th in the NFL among guards, per Sports Info Solutions.
Feiler played right tackle for the Steelers early in his career and may move back there now that the Chargers drafted guard Zion Johnson in the first round. Wherever he lines up, Feiler will be one of the anchors of what has the potential to be one of the league’s best offensive lines.
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys Jayron Kearse, S While it’s very easy to point to Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs as key factors in Dallas’ defensive turnaround last season, the improvement from Darian Thompson and Xavier Woods to Kearse at the safety position was as big as any. Kearse hit free agency off a career-high 15 starts and 67 solo tackles. He was underrated enough that nobody made a real play for him, and he settled for a two-year, $10-million contract with Dallas. His sure tackling and solid coverage probably deserved more of a push from an outside team.
New York Giants Andrew Thomas, OT Thomas is underrated by association. He was part of one of the league’s worst offensive lines last year. Thomas allowed 2.5 sacks and blew 19 blocks, but that was a massive upgrade from the five and 42 that were given up in 2020. He also ranked in the top 10 for ESPN’s run block win rate. But, stuck on a unit that needed a ton of retooling this offseason, there wasn’t much talk surrounding his improvement.
Philadelphia Eagles Josh Sweat, Edge Who led the Eagles in hurries last year? Was it Fletcher Cox, Derek Barnett or Javon Hargrave? No. It was fourth-year edge Josh Sweat, with 25 hurries and a team-high 7.5 sacks. Sweat’s three-year extension with Philadelphia will see him never have a cap hit above $6.1 million until 2024. Meanwhile, even with Haason Reddick onboard, Sweat might already be the most powerful edge on the team. There are edge players as good and as young as the 25-year-old Sweat, but you can count them on one hand and they probably weren’t drafted in the fourth round.
Washington Commanders Antonio Gibson, RB Gibson finished sixth in rushing DVOA as a rookie in 2020, then rushed for 1,000 yards on a bad team with no passing game and while playing through multiple injuries. His reward was the team bringing back J.D. McKissic even though Gibson is more than qualified to be a good receiver. And then the Commanders drafted Brian Robinson Jr. in the third round. Gibson at 6-foot-2 and 220 pounds has feature-back size and has showed feature-back skills. But the Commanders’ moves might be preventing him from being one.
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears Trevis Gipson, Edge Gipson emerged as a strong No. 3 and spot starter for the Bears last season, racking up seven sacks and 15 hurries in just under 500 snaps. Though a bit raw in his approach, Gipson has good length, functional strength and stunning flashes of bend around the corner. If Gipson can use this year’s opportunity as a starter to take another step forward, the Bears may have a real difference maker on their hands.
Detroit Lions Derrick Barnes, LB Barnes, a 6-foot-0, 238-pounder with a 97th-percentile wingspan, is a classic inside linebacker with the strength to bang between the tackles and enough speed to work to the perimeter. His ability to take on blocks, find the ball carrier and tackle with consistency was impressive to watch out of a young player, much less one who was a mid-rounder. Barnes will need to find his footing in coverage (the Lions preferred to take him off the field in nickel packages last season), but he has the physical skills and length to get there in time.
Green Bay Packers Jon Runyan, OL In over 1,100 career snaps, a majority of which came last season when he was the starter, Runyan has yet to commit a single penalty of any kind. Runyan was also 21st in run block win rate among guards last season. He may not bulldoze defenders like some other Pro Bowl and All-Pro guards, but Runyan is a sharp player who consistently executes his assignment and helps stabilize the Packers interior.
Minnesota Vikings Harrison Phillips, DL Phillips blossomed as a player last season, particularly in the run game. He finished eighth in ESPN’s run stop win rate in 2021, placing him just below the Rams’ vaunted duo of Greg Gaines and A’Shawn Robinson. For a Vikings team that finished the 2021 season last in adjusted line yards, second-to-last in ESPN’s run stop win rate and 25th in run defense DVOA, Phillips could make a major impact.
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons A.J. Terrell, CB Terrell somehow missed the Pro Bowl last season, despite significant praise from the advanced stats community. By our numbers, he was the best cornerback in football last season. He allowed 3.3 yards per target, which didn’t just lead the league; it was the best number for any qualified cornerback since Darrelle Revis in 2010.
Some of that comes from there being little reason to challenge Terrell considering the state of the rest of the Atlanta secondary last season, but Terrell’s play when he was targeted was exemplary. Those who know the game already have Terrell grouped among the top players at his position. It shouldn’t take long before the casual fans find about him, too.
Carolina Panthers Taylor Moton, RT Carolina’s offensive line was a disaster in 2021, and the Panthers entered the offseason needing four new starters. That didn’t include Moton, who doesn’t get the acclaim he deserves in part because of the poor quality of play around him. Moton’s 1.7% blown block rate was both a career high and eighth best among qualified tackles last season. He’s a punishing power run blocker who never comes off the field. There’s only so much one good lineman can do, so hopefully Carolina’s offensive revamp will let Moton show more of his stuff in 2022.
New Orleans Saints Demario Davis, LB Maybe it’s cheating a little to name a second-team All-Pro as his team’s “most underrated” player, but seeing as how Davis has never been named to a Pro Bowl, he deserves a little more attention. His name never comes up when talking about the best off-ball linebackers in the league, and it really should. Last season, he led all linebackers with five passes defensed.
He was one of 11 linebackers to finish in the top 20 in both yards per pass and coverage success rate, and one of only two who pulled that off while playing over 90% of his team’s snaps. And he did all this while having more quarterback knockdowns than any off-ball linebacker not named Micah Parsons.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Russell Gage, WR Gage is more than just your run-of-the-mill slot receiver. He is a phenomenal route runner with the ability to consistently work himself open at the short and intermediate areas of the field. He has seen his DYAR and DVOA increase every year he’s been in the league, and his 195 DYAR over the past two seasons has him in the top 50 wideouts. Now, he gets to move from one of the worst offenses in the league to the finely tuned unit in Tampa Bay. Look out.
NFC WEST
Arizona Cardinals Justin Pugh, G For two years in a row now, Pugh has ranked among the top 10 guards in ESPN’s pass block win rate and has also finished among the top five left guards in snaps per blown block according to SIS charting. Pugh considered retirement after the season, but Arizona general manager Steve Keim convinced him to return on a re-worked deal. At OTAs, Pugh was taking (delivering?) snaps at center in Rodney Hudson’s absence, and he might end up playing there should Hudson fail to return for the regular season.
Los Angeles Rams Tyler Higbee, TE Only three tight ends have ranked in the top 15 in receiving DYAR at Football Outsiders in each of the past three years: George Kittle, Travis Kelce and Higbee. Higbee doesn’t have the volume of those other two, and he’s not as explosive, but he moves the chains, picking up a first down on 56% of his third- or fourth-down targets since 2019 — better than Kittle (51%) or Kelce (50%). Higbee is also reliable with more touchdowns (13) than drops (eight) in that timeframe.
San Francisco 49ers Jimmy Garoppolo, QB In his career, Garoppolo is averaging 8.4 yards per attempt, a better rate than Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady or any other quarterback who started in 2021. A lot of the credit for that goes to coach Kyle Shanahan and YAC machines such as Deebo Samuel, and it doesn’t account for Garoppolo’s penchant for racking up sacks, interceptions and injuries.
But in a league where spare parts such as Sam Darnold, Drew Lock and Carson Wentz have starting jobs, it’s hard to believe nobody wants to give Garoppolo another chance.
Seattle Seahawks Will Dissly, TE Good things happen when the Seahawks throw to Dissly — in his career, he has a 79.2% catch rate and 9.4 yards per target, similar numbers to those of Rob Gronkowski (64.7%/9.7) and Travis Kelce (70.8%/9.1). It’s easier to be efficient as the fourth or fifth weapon in Seattle than as the cornerstone in New England or Kansas City, but the Seahawks paid Dissly like he deserves more targets, guaranteeing him over $10 million in March. They also acquired Noah Fant in the Russell Wilson trade, so maybe Dissly won’t get those targets after all.
LEADERS AND FOLLOWERS We have fleshed out our idea about a Leaders and Followers set of divisions in the 16-team conferences.
That would be a top tier of eight teams that play for the conference championship game and playoff berths – and to avoid finishing last and being relegated.
The other eight teams play for a lesser championship that nets them a spot in the top 8.
We would think the top 8 would get more revenues from the TV split, let’s say 70-30.
Today, let’s look at the new-fangled SEC. We assigned the 16 teams based on total number of conference wins over the last five years (we know this is apples to oranges with Texas and Oklahoma) although it pretty much lined up how we might have thought if we just guessed.
LEADERS DIVISION (Ranked Most Wins at Top) Alabama Oklahoma Georgia LSU Texas A&M Texas Auburn Florida
FOLLOWERS DIVISION Kentucky Missouri Mississippi State South Carolina Ole Miss Tennessee Arkansas Vanderbilt
LEADERS DIVISION INTERDIVISION GAMES Assigned by Ranking
ALABAMA at Vandy Kentucky OKLAHOMA at Arkansas Missouri GEORGIA at Tennessee Mississippi State LSU at Ole Miss South Carolina TEXAS A&M at South Carolina Ole Miss TEXAS at Miss. State Tennessee AUBURN at Missouri Arkansas FLORIDA at Kentucky Vanderbilt
We would allow each team one mutually agreed on rivalry game that would supersede the assigned inter-division games if necessary. And does Texas get Oklahoma or Texas A&M as a rival? That would have to be thrashed out. But as we look at it here we don’t see a game across the initial divisions that would qualify (the Iron Bowl teams are both in the Leaders, the Egg Bowl teams are both in the Followers).
But hypothetically, if Florida or Auburn were to fall out of the Leaders as the relegated team, they would still have Georgia or Alabama on the interdivision slate.
Alabama’s conference schedule would look something like this –
TEXAS A&M at Vanderbilt at Florida OKLAHOMA GEORGIA at Texas KENTUCKY LSU at Auburn
So think of all the great games among the Leaders Division teams.
Let’s take a look at a random followers division team – South Carolina
KENTUCKY at Mississippi State at Tennessee TEXAS A&M VANDERBILT at Arkansas OLE MISS at LSU MISSOURI
With the Aggies and LSU on the schedule it is not unattractive, but it also looks manageable, not a lineup of goliaths.
And, in the second year someone, let’s call it Auburn joins the Followers. And someone, let’s say Tennessee moves up.
Every year, one bottom team claims a prize of going to the top tier. And if with a great coach and massive NIL a team such as Missouri or Ole Miss has a big leap, it is only a two-year rise to the top.
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