Philip Rivers is set to hit double digits when it comes to procreation.

The former Los Angeles Chargers quarterback told AL.com‘s Ben Thomas on Wednesday Rivers’ wife, Tiffany, is expecting their family’s 10th child, with a boy due to arrive in October. The couple is still reportedly waiting to pick out a name.

The family already has nine children with seven girls and two boys with ages ranging from 4 years old to 21. Their most recent child, a daughter named Anna, arrived in 2019 while Philip was with the Chargers.

That layoff is apparently a sort of record, via AL.com:

“We’ve had one pretty much every two years and now this is the longest gap,” Rivers said. “We are all fired up. Everyone was pulling for a boy. Even our girls wanted a boy.”

The 10th child also breaks an odd little streak, as Tiffany reportedly comes from a family of nine children, as does her father:

“We thought we would be the third generation of nine, but we decided to go double digits — or I should say we didn’t decide it. God decided,” he said.

This will be Rivers’ first child since he retired from the NFL. In the time since his final season in 2020 with the Indianapolis Colts, he has devoted most of his energy to being the head coach of St. Michael Catholic in Fairhope, Alabama, where his oldest son, Gunner, will be the starting quarterback this upcoming season.

Rivers was slow to shut the door on a return, though, entertaining some offers for a comeback before ultimately staying put.

SAN FRANCISCO

QB BROCK PURDY is coming along nicely for Week 1.  Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:

49ers quarterback Brock Purdy traveled to Jacksonville following the team’s offseason program. He has spent time there rehabbing with private quarterbacks coach Will Hewlett and sports performance expert Tom Gormely.

Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area provided an update Thursday during an appearance on KNBR.

Maiocco said Purdy ‘s rehab is on schedule, and he is on track to start the season opener, having experienced no setbacks. The team hopes that Purdy can return at some point late in training camp.

Purdy underwent surgery to repair the torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow on March 10. He was given a six-month recovery timeline, with a slow buildup.

The 49ers have Trey Lance, the No. 3 overall pick in 2021, and free agent signee Sam Darnold, a former first-round pick, standing by in case.

Purdy earned the starting job last season after injuries to Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo. He completed 67.1 percent of his passes for 1,374 yards, 13 touchdowns and four interceptions in seven games during the regular season.

CLEVELAND

Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com has the Browns at #14 in his preseason rankings.  Here is his preview:

Deshaun Watson was in an unwinnable situation last season.

Watson did that to himself, and the many tales of his off-field conduct don’t lead to any sympathy. But if we’re looking at it just from the scope of being the Cleveland Browns quarterback, there’s no way Watson could have succeeded last season.

Watson didn’t play at all in 2021, then had just nine preseason snaps with the Browns due to his 11-game suspension for multiple violations of the league’s personal conduct policy. He was asked to join a new team in early December, with new teammates, new coaches and a new scheme, and be a functional quarterback. That came after an offseason of intense scrutiny on Watson and a lot of criticism for the Browns over their trade for Watson and his $230 million guaranteed contract. He had most of the football world rooting against him and eager to point out all of his struggles. Again, that was his own doing. But it didn’t help.

He had almost no chance to succeed, and he didn’t. Watson was well off his career numbers in his first six Browns games.

“I knew it was going to be challenging,” Watson said after the team’s season finale, via the Browns’ site. “I knew I wasn’t going to walk in and just be the MVP of the NFL. I’ve got a lot of work to put in. I’ve put in a lot of work, and I have a long way to go.”

The Browns didn’t acquire Watson for a few games at the end of last season. They ignored the red flags because they saw a quarterback who was one of the NFL’s best with the Houston Texans, and envisioned Watson leading them to a few deep playoff runs.

That could still happen. Watson will turn just 28 years old this season. He was a dynamic player with Houston, and for Clemson before that. We can probably just ignore the abbreviated 2022 season for Watson because it was an impossible situation. He won’t have a majority of the football world rooting him on this season, but Watson can still be the exact type of quarterback the Browns thought they were getting. Having a normal offseason should help immensely. An expanded offense that fits Watson’s strengths could be a positive too.

“The future is definitely bright for the Cleveland Browns and regardless of what people say or what people think, I’m here for a reason and it is what it is,” Watson said after the season finale, via Cleveland.com.

There’s still a chance for this long and complete rebuild by the Browns to finally pay off big, though they would do so as a villain and not a lovable loser. Cleveland was stacking talent through high draft picks and gobs of salary cap space, and plenty of that talent is still around. The offensive line is very good. Nick Chubb might be the best pure runner in the NFL. There are viable receivers led by Amari Cooper. The defense wasn’t good last season but additions were made and it still has Myles Garrett as a centerpiece.

It comes down to Watson. If he rebounds and is elite again, Cleveland could be a Super Bowl contender. If the rust and negative attention had a lasting toll on Watson and his level from last season is just what he’ll be going forward, the Browns are in trouble. Suffering through 1-31 over two seasons will have been all for nothing (well, one playoff win).

The gamble on Watson is just starting.

Offseason grade

The Browns made three significant free-agent deals and all three were on defense. Defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson (four years, $57 million), safety Juan Thornhill (three years, $21 million) and defensive end Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (three years, $19 million) add to the talent level of a defense that wasn’t great last season. The Browns didn’t resign Jadeveon Clowney, but that might be addition by subtraction. The Browns also made a low-cost trade for defensive end Za’Darius Smith, who had 10 sacks last season. They got him from the Minnesota Vikings for two late-round draft swaps. The Browns also got receiver Elijah Moore from the New York Jets for swapping their second-round pick for the Jets’ third-round pick. That could be a steal; Moore looked very good as a rookie before everything turned sour with the Jets and Moore last season. The Browns needed to be good in free agency and trades because the draft cupboard will be empty for a while due to the Deshaun Watson trade. Cleveland didn’t have a pick in the top 73 this year. With the 74th pick they took Tennessee receiver Cedric Tillman, and the other top-100 pick was used on Baylor defensive lineman Siaki Ika at No. 98. Cleveland did pretty well to use their resources in spots that needed help.

Grade: B

Quarterback report

Last season Deshaun Watson was nowhere close to his production with the Houston Texans. Even if you account for a difficult situation (which included, on top of everything else, some miserable winter weather games), the dropoff is startling:

Four Texans seasons: 269.2 yards per game, 104 TD, 36 INT, 67.8 completion percentage, 104.5 passer rating

Last season: 184.7 yards per game, 7 TD, 5 INT, 58.2 completion percentage, 79.1 passer rating

There’s an argument to be made that Watson will bounce back with a normal offseason, but that’s not guaranteed. He didn’t play in a game for nearly two calendar years (not counting nine preseason snaps last August) and we’ve seen that layoffs like take something out of a player. There’s also an intangible aspect of becoming the NFL’s most infamous player last year. A lot of success at quarterback comes from confidence and who knows if Watson lost some of that given all the attention paid to his sexual misconduct allegations? There’s at least some question about whether Watson will rebound all the way to his Texans form.

BetMGM odds breakdown

Earlier this offseason I took the Browns under 9.5 wins at BetMGM. Now I’m not so sure. On first glance, the Browns have gotten to double-digit wins just once since 2007. They went 7-10 last season and play in a very tough division. It made sense to fade the Browns. But the more you look at the roster, the easier it is to see the upside. I’d lean under still but it’s a hard call. One bet I do like is on Nick Chubb to win NFL Offensive Player of the Year and another on him to lead the NFL in rushing. Chubb should have a monster season, which we’ll get to in a moment.

Yahoo’s fantasy take

From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “Nick Chubb seems incapable of having down seasons. He’s averaged at least 5.0 yards per carry for five straight years, and he’s never scored fewer than eight touchdowns. And the dots connect for a possible career season upcoming.

“Cleveland’s offensive line is better than average, perhaps a top 5 unit. That’s a good start. Deshaun Watson is a question mark at quarterback, but it’s unlikely his play will be as rusty and ineffective as it was at the end of last year. And Chubb should be busier than usual in 2023, given that talented backups Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson have departed.

“Chubb looks like a reasonable bet to lead the league in rushing, and he might set a personal best for receiving yards, too. He’s a destination pick for me in the second round of any fantasy draft.”

Stat to remember

Here is every running back since 1946 to average more than 5.1 yards per carry for their career: Hall of Famer Marion Motley (5.7), the underrated Jamaal Charles (5.4), all-time great Jim Brown (5.2) and Nick Chubb (5.2). There’s no questioning Chubb’s talent. He’s remarkable. But he has also never won a rushing title, in part because the Browns will not overwork him. Last season Chubb broke 300 carries in a season for the first time, getting 302. He has 16.1 per game for his career. The last three seasons he has played 49%, 53% and 56% of the Browns’ offensive snaps, which is low for a back of his caliber. A big part of that was Kareem Hunt being on the roster, but Hunt is gone. The Browns did very little to invest in the backup spot, presumably leaving it for 2022 fifth-round pick Jerome Ford and his eight career carries. The Browns could still add a veteran, but it seems like we’re about to see Chubb shatter his career high in carries. Which will mean a lot of yards.

Burning question

How much will Jim Schwartz affect the defense?

The Browns suffered through a miserable season on defense and coordinator Joe Woods was unsurprisingly fired. The Browns hired a familiar name to NFL fans, getting Schwartz to run the defense. Schwartz has 19 years as either a defensive coordinator or head coach and his style is well known: defensive ends will line up wide (which is why adding defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson, a top run defender, was huge for Cleveland) and get after the quarterback as cornerbacks play aggressive man coverage behind, with linebackers and safeties cleaning up everything that gets funneled inside. Schwartz has had a good amount of success with his scheme, including a Super Bowl title as the defensive coordinator of the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles. It seems the scheme should fit players like end Myles Garrett, cornerback Denzel Ward and safety Grant Delpit very well. We should see a much different Browns defense this season.

Best-case scenario

It’s not hard to build a case for the Browns being a division champion and dangerous playoff team. They weren’t bad on offense last season and that was with Jacoby Brissett and a rusty Deshaun Watson at quarterback. It’ll get a lot better if Watson plays like he did in Houston. We already know the Browns will run it well as long as Nick Chubb is healthy. The defense was a mess last season but there were some key personnel additions, a new coordinator and plenty of talent on that side of the ball. There are really good teams in the AFC North, but the Browns could end up beating them all for a division crown.

Nightmare scenario

This feels like a huge season for Cleveland. Maybe it all comes together and the Browns are in the playoffs. But after all the waiting for the Big Breakout — the 0-16 season as part of the team’s tanking approach happened six years ago, after all — if they put together a losing season then it’s hard to imagine there will be much patience. Kevin Stefanski was great his first season and has had two losing seasons since. It’s not all his fault but will the Browns keep going forward with him if he has a third losing season in a row? Maybe the Browns will decide that whatever their process was trying to build didn’t work and they have to start over, though they’ll still be stuck with a wildly unpopular quarterback who they paid $230 million guaranteed and might never be elite again. If this is all the Browns can be, on the wrong side of mediocrity every season, then some difficult decisions will need to be made next offseason.

The crystal ball says …

I think the Browns will be better than last season, but something is keeping me from putting them in the playoffs this season. Maybe it’s wondering if Deshaun Watson will never shake all the rust off, if Kevin Stefanski is really the answer or if we’ve consistently overrated the talent on the roster. And, let’s be honest, the Browns’ horrible history probably is a factor in the skepticism too. I think Cleveland ends up hanging around .500, in the playoff race but coming up just short of the postseason. I can’t rule out a huge season for the Browns, but I need to see it first before I buy in.

TENNESSEE

The odds have jumped sharply towards WR DeANDRE HOPKINS signing with the Titans.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Titans have emerged as the betting favorites to land free agent wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins.

The Titans’ odds of signing Hopkins are now -300. Just yesterday, they were +500.

Sometimes a dramatic shift in the odds like that means someone with inside information is placing bets. Other times, it’s just bets placed by people who think they’re in the know.

Hopkins is one of the highest-profile free agents currently available in the NFL, and the Titans are a team that would like to add a veteran receiver after last year’s A.J. Brown trade went disastrously for them. Hopkins to Tennessee could make a lot of sense.

NEW ENGLAND

New flash – Ben Volin of the Boston Globe has found some friends of Bill Belichick.

Given the unequaled resume that he has crafted over two decades in New England, one might think that Bill Belichick wouldn’t need to be looking over his shoulder when it comes to job security.

But a recent column by The Boston Globe’s Ben Volin noted that the Patriots’ head coach might be on unsteady ground going into the 2023 season.

Volin’s column sheds light on the relationship between Robert Kraft and Mac Jones, reporting that the quarterback “apparently is a lot tighter with” the team owner than anticipated, which, as Volin wrote, “could be trouble for” Belichick.

“Robert Kraft already made it clear in March that he wants the Patriots to make the postseason and win a playoff game for the first time in five years,” Volin wrote. “He also paid Jerod Mayo handsomely to keep him off the coaching market and likely views him as the team’s coach-in-waiting. And Belichick’s friends have privately said they are worried that he is on the hot seat in 2023.”

Jones had a season to forget in 2022, but the young quarterback wasn’t exactly aided by a dysfunctional coaching staff that saw Matt Patricia and Joe Judge struggle to craft a capable offensive unit.

Since Tom Brady left New England in March 2020, Belichick and the Patriots have fallen below the lofty expectations that they have set for themselves over the years.

In two of the last three seasons, New England finished below .500 and missed the playoffs. Their last postseason win came back on Feb. 3, 2019 during Super Bowl LIII against the Rams.

Speaking earlier this year, Robert Kraft acknowledged that the Patriots’ play over the last few years has left plenty to be desired.

“I was very disappointed with the way our season went,” Kraft said at the NFL Annual League Meeting back in March. “I had the privilege of being a fan for decades before buying the team. I think in the end, I’m still a fan.

“My objective for our team is that we make the playoffs. …. I thought last year, we had gone three years without [a playoffs win], and I thought we had been in a position to do it. The season, we finished under .500 … so I thought changes had to be made.”

But when asked about Belichick’s recent track record, Kraft did offer up a vote of confidence in his longtime head coach when it comes to the team’s recent personnel decisions.

“I think Bill is exceptional at what he does and I’ve given him the freedom to make the choices and do the things that need to be done,” Kraft said. “His football intellect and knowledge is unparalleled from what I’ve seen. Just when you talk to him, the small things analytically that he looks at.

“But in the end, this is a business. You either execute and win or you don’t. That’s where we’re at. I think we’re in a transition phase. I think we’ve made some moves this year that I personally am comfortable with and I still believe in Bill.”

NEW YORK JETS

The Jets will be under the scrutiny of the “Hard Knocks” cameras, much to the dismay of QB AARON RODGERS.  John Breech of CBSSports.com:

Aaron Rodgers has been in the NFL for 18 seasons, and in that time, he has never been on “Hard Knocks,” but that’s going to change this year with the Jets being selected for the HBO show.

If you’re wondering how the four-time MVP feels about being on the show, it appears that he’s not a big fan. During an interview on Wednesday in Lake Tahoe, where Rodgers is playing in the American Century Championship, the Jets’ new quarterback didn’t sound thrilled about being on the show.

“They forced it down our throats and we have to deal with it,” Rodgers told KPIX.

There were four teams eligible to be on the show — the Jets, Bears, Saints and Commanders — and Rodgers does get why the NFL ended up picking his team.

“I understand the appeal with us,” Rodgers said. “Obviously, there are a lot of eyes on me, a lot of eyes on our team, a lot of expectations for our squad.”

Although Rodgers doesn’t seem to be a huge fan of being on “Hard Knocks,” he did admit that he likes one thing about the show: Liev Schreiber.

“One of the only things I like about ‘Hard Knocks’ is the voice of God, the man who narrates it, Liev,” Rodgers said. “I hope I get to meet him.”

Rodgers isn’t the only person in the Jets organization who wanted nothing to do with “Hard Knocks” this year. Head coach Robert Saleh had said in early June that he would prefer NOT to see his team on the show.

“I know there are several teams that would love ‘Hard Knocks’ to be in their building,” Saleh said on June 9, via SI.com. “We’re just not one of them.”

The problem for the Jets is that they didn’t really have much say in the situation. Under the NFL’s rules for “Hard Knocks,” the Jets were one of four teams that league was allowed to force to be on the show. Another team could have volunteered, but once that didn’t happen, the NFL had to make a decision and the Jets were easily the most attractive team thanks to their blockbuster acquisition of Rodgers in late April.

With the head coach and quarterback both against the show, it will be interesting to see how the Jets respond to being on it. Of course, if it goes anything like the last time around, that could bode well for the Jets. The team previously appeared on “Hard Knocks” in 2010, which is mostly remembered for Rex Ryan telling his team to go eat a “God d— snack.”

The 2010 season was also the last time the Jets made the playoffs, so maybe “Hard Knocks” will turn out to be a good omen for the team. Also, the Jets ended up making it to the AFC title game that year, making them the only “Hard Knocks” team to ever reach a conference title game.

If the Jets can replicate that success, then there’s a good chance that no one in the organization will ever complain again about being on the show.

The “Hard Knocks” cameras will officially start rolling next week when the Jets report to training camp (July 19).

– – –

It’s a done deal for DT QUINNEN WILLIAMS.  Charean Williams (no relation) at ProFootballTalk.com:

The Jets announced their long-term deal with defensive tackle Quinnen Williams on Thursday.

“We are thrilled to secure Quinnen as a New York Jet for the foreseeable future, as he embodies everything we look for in our players,” Jets General Manager Joe Douglas said in a statement. “He is a leader on and off the field, who does everything asked of him and more. He is a young, ascending player who has shown a consistent ability to dominate the line of scrimmage and help this team win. We are happy to have the business of football behind us and to turn our focus to getting ready for the 2023 season.”

According to multiple reports, Williams will receive a four-year contract extension worth $96 million with $66 million in guaranteed money. He now is under contract with the Jets through 2027.

THIS AND THAT

TEAMS IN TIERS

Tyler Sullivan of CBSSports.com puts the AFC teams in Tiers, with 14 of the 16 at least being considered “in the hunt.”

With the NFL in hibernation for a couple more weeks before training camps open up, we are in full-blown rankings season. My colleague, Cody Benjamin, broke each NFC team into tiers as we gear up for the 2023 regular season and now it’s my turn to tackle the AFC. Of course, this conference not only boasts the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs, but it also houses three of the top five Super Bowl betting favorites entering this season at Caesars Sportsbook.

Here, we’ll try to slot each team into its proper tier, ranging from those that have a Lombardi Trophy in the crosshairs, all the way down to the clubs that will be searching for moral victories over actual wins in 2023.

Tier 1: Bona fide Super Bowl contenders (3)

Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills

The Kansas City Chiefs might deserve a tier of their own as the defending champions. After all, they do boast the best coach-quarterback duo in the league with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, which should continue to have them hunting for a championship in 2023 (and are currently the betting favorite to win it all again). Losing Orlando Brown Jr. is a notable loss along the offensive line, but they have since brought in Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor to man the tackle positions and protect Mahomes. They are also betting that Mahomes will be able to elevate the wide receiver room that’s headlined by Kadarius Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore. Of course, Travis Kelce continues to be one of the greatest mismatches in the NFL today and will be the go-to outlet in the passing attack.

One thing that I like that the Chiefs have done over the last couple of years is their under-the-radar youth movement on defense, particularly off the edge. The team drafted pass rushers George Karlaftis and Felix Anudike-Uzomah in the first round in each of the previous two drafts, and it seems like it will be getting some added opportunity as the club let Frank Clark and Carlos Dunlap go this offseason.

Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals are primed for another deep postseason run. Remember that guy Orlando Brown Jr. we were just talking about? Well, Cincy was able to poach him in free agency, giving Joe Burrow some much-needed protection along the offensive line. Having Brown slot in at left tackle and kicking Jonah Williams to right tackle while La’el Collins (ACL) continues to rehab may be the best tackle duo Burrow has had in his career to this point. Of course, then there’s the three-headed monster at receiver with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd who should continue to help the Bengals dominate through the air. What will be interesting to see with the Bengals is what their secondary will look like after losing Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell in free agency.

The Buffalo Bills have the second-best odds to win the AFC at the moment and still have a wildly talented roster, headlined by MVP candidate (and Madden NFL cover athlete) Josh Allen. The addition of running back Damien Harris in free agency is an underrated move as it should allow Allen to limit his rushing attempts and keep him fresh throughout the year. Meanwhile, first-round rookie Dalton Kincaid is going to be a fascinating addition to the passing attack as the young tight end could end up lining up more in the slot than at his traditional position. Buffalo had a top-five defense last year and that was with Von Miller missing time due to a season-ending ACL injury. With him back and the team retaining safety Jordan Poyer in free agency, this defense should continue to rank highly throughout the league. 

Tier 2: Wouldn’t be surprised if they made a run (4)

New York Jets, Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars

It wouldn’t shock me in the least to see one of two of these clubs in the AFC Championship, duking it out for a chance to play for a Super Bowl. That said, they aren’t as much of a lock as the three other teams are, so this was a natural place to start Tier 2.

Of course, the New York Jets have been taking over headlines throughout the offseason after they were able to acquire Aaron Rodgers in a blockbuster trade with the Packers. This move immediately thrusts New York into the Super Bowl conversation, but there is a question as to how quickly Rodgers will be able to acclimate himself with his new team and whether or not a deep playoff run is realistic right out of the gate. Could this be the latest addition of a quarterback leaving his old team for a new destination and immediately hoisting a Lombardi Trophy? As Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford can attest, it’s not impossible. On top of Rodgers, the Jets have some really good pieces on both sides of the ball, especially corner Sauce Gardner and wideout Garrett Wilson, who are the defending rookies of the year. Defensively, New York could have a top-five unit as it did a year ago, making the Jets plenty dangerous in the AFC. 

The Baltimore Ravens are a team that I don’t feel is getting enough respect when we talk about possible contenders. They were able to straighten out Lamar Jackson’s contract situation and it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see him get back to his MVP form, especially with a new offensive coordinator and a refreshed staple of receivers, including Odell Beckham Jr. and first-round rookie Zay Flowers. For all their issues last season and Jackson limited to 12 games, they still went 10-7 (a testament to how good a coach John Harbaugh is) and had a defense that ranked seventh in the league in DVOA. So long as Jackson stays healthy, they’ll be a threat.

Speaking of quarterbacks staying healthy, that brings us perfectly to the Miami Dolphins. Yes, they play in an increasingly competitive AFC East, but Miami could be the surprise team of 2023 and be one of the last clubs standing in the conference. That largely revolves, however, around the status of Tua Tagovailoa and his ability to stay on the field. He has reportedly spent the offseason bulking up and teaching himself how to fall more safely in hopes of avoiding another head injury. If that happens, Miami’s offense should be elite. After all, the Dolphins averaged 26.4 points in the games Tagovailoa played last year. I also love the addition of corner Jalen Ramsey into this secondary.

The Jacksonville Jaguars round out this tier because I’m expecting a nice leap from Trevor Lawrence in Year 3. This will be his second season under Doug Pederson and they’ll be looking to build off of a 2022 season where they were able to reach the divisional round. They’ll be injecting wideout Calvin Ridley into this offense which does have the potential of elevating the unit to a more explosive level and the team did invest along the right side of the offensive line by signing guard Brandon Scherff in free agency and drafting tackle Anton Harrison in the first round. Defensively, 2022 first-overall pick Travon Walker will need to step up as a pass rusher to make this unit more feared on a weekly basis.

Tier 3: If things break right (2)

Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Chargers

I have the Cleveland Browns and Los Angeles Chargers in the same category because I feel like they are in a nearly identical situation. Both have solid rosters from top to bottom and are arguably the No. 2 teams in their respective (and competitive) divisions, but I do sense that they may be missing that “it” factor.

With the Browns, I’ve reserved judgment on Deshaun Watson returning to his Houston form until I see it. He missed a ton of football over the past two years and it showed once he returned from his suspension. While he showed some flashes of his prior self, he completed just 58.2% of his throws last season and had a 79.1 passer rating. If he’s the Watson of old and is a threat through the air and with his legs, the Browns will be in contention. If he’s not, they’ll have a $230 million problem on their hands.

As for the Chargers, they have all the talent in the world — especially at quarterback with Justin Herbert — to make a run. However, I do question whether or not head coach Brandon Staley is the one to take them to the promised land. The Chargers brought in new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to help stabilize that unit, but it’s the defense (Staley’s specialty) that has some questions. That comes after a 2022 season where they were abysmal against the run, allowing a league-worst 5.4 yards per carry. They also had a demoralizing loss to the Jaguars during Super Wild Card Weekend where they blew a 27-point lead and featured plenty of mental mistakes on the part of Staley, including horrendous clock management. 

Tier 4: In the Hunt group (5)

Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders, Tennessee Titans

These are the teams that you’ll see on the right side of your television screen as Jim Nantz and Tony Romo go over the playoff picture on a Sunday in early November. They might not be atop their divisions, nor looked at as a Super Bowl contender, but they could be in the mix for a wild card playoff spot.

For the Pittsburgh Steelers, all eyes will be on Kenny Pickett in hopes that the 2022 first-round pick can make a Year 2 jump. He has a solid collection of talent around him, headlined by Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, and Najee Harris. The team also solidified the left side of its O-line by drafting tackle Broderick Jones and signing guard Isaac Seumalo in free agency. Naturally, the strength of this team should be its defense as T.J. Watt looks to remain one of the top pass rushers in the NFL and the team did select corner Joey Porter Jr. in the second round of this year’s draft.

The New England Patriots are another team hoping that they’ll see a bump from their quarterback, especially after righting some of the wrongs from last season. Mac Jones was dealt a bad hand with Matt Patricia and Joe Judge leading the offense, but the team has since brought in Bill O’Brien to be its offensive coordinator and added some high-upside weapons in free agency like JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mike Gesicki. The biggest question on offense will be whether or not New England’s offensive line will give Jones the proper amount of time to throw the ball. Defensively, this unit should be among the best in the league.

In Denver, it’s all about head coach Sean Payton and the hope that he’ll be able to resurrect the franchise after being acquired by the Broncos this offseason. Mainly, it’s going to come down to how much of Russell Wilson’s struggles last year were on Nathaniel Hackett and how much of it was simply on the quarterback. If it’s on the latter, Payton may be on the hunt for a new quarterback over the next calendar year. Speaking of AFC West teams, the Las Vegas Raiders have themselves a new quarterback after signing Jimmy Garoppolo. As you’d imagine, however, Garoppolo is recouping from yet another injury as he underwent foot surgery this offseason. While the Raiders do have interesting pieces on both sides of the ball, if Garoppolo isn’t able to remain healthy, they won’t stand much of a chance in one of the more loaded divisions in the league.

Finally, the Tennessee Titans round out this group. It does seem like the franchise may be on the last leg with this current core under Ryan Tannehill. The quarterback is entering the final year of his contract and the club did draft Will Levis in the NFL Draft this spring. Given how talented of a coach Mike Vrabel is, it wouldn’t be surprising if he pulled a rabbit out of his hat and had Tennessee vying for the AFC South, but there are questions of whether or not they have enough juice on offense even if Derrick Henry remains dominant out of the backfield.

Tier 5: Rebuilding with rookie QB (2)

Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans

We head to the AFC South as we get to the bottom of these tiers. Neither the Houston Texans nor the Indianapolis Colts are expected to be competitive in 2023. Most important for these franchises is making sure that both of their top-five quarterbacks — C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson — get through their rookie seasons without any damage to their development and set up a foundation for the rest of their careers.

Stroud nor Richardson has officially been named their team’s Week 1 starter to this point, but it’s fair to expect both of these players getting starts relatively early this coming season. That may not result in winning football on Day 1, but so long as they show that they have the potential to be franchise quarterbacks, that’ll be a win for both of these teams heading into 2024.

As for the NFC – here’s Cody Benjamin whose Tiers have slightly different names and definitions:

Tier 1: The trophy hunters (3)

Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys

The gap between these three and the rest of the conference feels pretty substantial. The Cowboys are technically the least qualified among the trio, failing to reach the NFC Championship Game since 1995, but they’ve won 12 games in back-to-back years, upgraded at two premium spots with Brandin Cooks and Stephon Gilmore, and possess some of the game’s best young defensive talent in Micah Parsons, Trevon Diggs and DaRon Bland. Conservative coaching remains a concern with Mike McCarthy, and QB Dak Prescott is still in search of a defining late-year run, but as is often the case, America’s Team has the star power.

The Eagles and 49ers, meanwhile, have combined for five NFC Championship appearances and two Super Bowl bids in the last six years. San Francisco is a bigger question mark due to a convoluted QB situation; Brock Purdy was unusually poised as a rookie, but he’s coming off elbow surgery and a small sample size of NFL production, and the alternatives, Trey Lance and Sam Darnold, are reclamation projects in their own ways. Even so, coach Kyle Shanahan constructs the closest thing to a QB-proof system in the league, and he’s still got a defense with imposing playmakers at every level.

Philly probably owns the NFL’s best all-around roster for a second consecutive year, thanks to general manager Howie Roseman’s crafty ways. QB Jalen Hurts has the makeup to be a perennial MVP candidate, provided his physical rushing doesn’t take him off the field, and the weapons across the board — A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Haason Reddick, Darius Slay — coupled with an all-star O-line bode well. The biggest roadblocks to another Super Bowl trip may well be internal; while facing a tougher schedule, coach Nick Sirianni will be juggling new coordinators on both sides of the ball.

Tier 2: The growing contenders (3)

Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks, New York Giants

Two of these three were surprise 2022 playoff teams, and the other is angling to snap a six-year streak of non-postseason action. In other words, none of them feel particularly trustworthy, and yet, on paper, they register as organizations built for another step forward. Let’s start with the Giants: it’s still unclear whether QB Daniel Jones has the help or wherewithal to stretch the field as a passer, but if Brian Daboll can guide a road playoff win with last year’s makeshift setup, adding vets like Darren Waller and Parris Campbell shouldn’t hurt. With underrated, ascending youth on both sides of the line, they should at least be scrappy again.

Like the G-Men, the Seahawks are betting their QB’s breakout wasn’t a fluke, and while Geno Smith reverted to some turnover tendencies down the stretch, he’s got deep skill-position support and a defense that looks vastly improved. Pete Carroll might finally have a stingy group again, adding physicality up front (Dre’Mont Jones), in the middle (Bobby Wagner) and on the back end (Devon Witherspoon). The Lions are just as promising, surrounding Jared Goff with a sturdy line and young playmakers like Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Their “D” also got more physical with a secondary makeover. It’s been a long time, however, since they had such high expectations to meet, and Goff has his own hurdles to clear when it comes to off-script, big-game deliverance.

Tier 3: The wild card wanderers (5)

Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons

Call this the middle ground, full of teams destined to hover around .500 and tease — or surprise — with a playoff push. The Vikings almost never bottom out, and they’ve still got top-shelf offensive weaponry between Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson, but Brian Flores’ arrival as a more aggressive schemer can only do so much to mask a stripped-down defense. The Packers have dropped off the radar since trading Aaron Rodgers, and their pass catchers are very young, but Jordan Love’s lively arm, plus a formidable ground game, should keep them feisty. The Saints still tout a suffocating “D” and should enjoy Derek Carr’s gutsy leadership at QB, but key players like Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas have questionable availability. The Panthers figure to endure the hiccups of a reset, lacking elite weapons, but with a growing “D” and the poised pairing of Bryce Young and Frank Reich at QB and head coach, they may have the moxie to make noise in the NFC South. The Falcons have a slew of young playmakers like Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts, but Arthur Smith is married to an old-school recipe of winning on the ground, with the unproven Desmond Ridder leading the charge.

Tier 4: The restoration projects (4)

Chicago Bears, Los Angeles Rams, Washington Commanders, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This group features four franchises with very different track records but equally uncertain futures. The Bears finally added help for the dynamic but still-developing Justin Fields this offseason, but it remains to be seen how much better they’ll be under defensive coach Matt Eberflus. The Commanders have legit weapons in Terry McLaurin and the defensive front, but coach Ron Rivera, who hasn’t led a winning season since 2017, is betting on a total unknown at QB in Sam Howell. The Buccaneers are equally, if not more, talented on “D,” but they’re also in QB limbo with Baker Mayfield replacing Tom Brady. The Rams, meanwhile, have the coach (Sean McVay), the QB (Matthew Stafford) and the star wideout (Cooper Kupp) but very little else, dumping many of their high-profile defenders in the name of long-term growth.

Tier 5: The draft-pick darlings (1)

Arizona Cardinals

On an island of their own, the Cardinals could be without mercurial franchise QB Kyler Murray for the start of 2023, if not a big chunk of the year, as he recovers from injury. That leaves Colt McCoy and/or a rotation of other reserves to shepherd a roster headlined by aging and/or injury-prone cogs like James Conner and Marquise Brown, and overseen by first-time coach Jonathan Gannon. Arizona signaled its slow-burn approach by stocking up on 2024 draft capital this offseason, but the journey to the next stage of the rebuild isn’t likely to be without major bumps.

TOP 10 RUNNING BACKS

NFL execs and scouts help Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com rank the running backs.

While the running back market remains stagnant, production at the position is surging.

This led to four new entrants (or re-entrants) into this year’s top 10, including three set to play on the franchise tag. Three impressive rookies also pushed for a spot.

Let’s look at some of the game’s top ball carriers as ranked by execs, coaches, scouts and players around the NFL.

1. Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns

Highest ranking: 1 | Lowest ranking: 6

Age: 27 | Last year’s ranking: 3

Chubb finally gets his due atop the rankings after an impressive five-year run in Cleveland.

Since entering the NFL in 2018, he has averaged 5.2 yards per rush, best in the NFL and the second-best mark in NFL history among players with at least 1,000 rushes, behind Jamaal Charles’ 5.4 clip. He also led the NFL in explosive rushing plays (23) in 2022.

“I’ve always loved his game,” an AFC executive said. “He can carry the load, strong, has vision, great feet, not outstanding in the passing game but can do it. Just a damn good player. Not a make-you-miss guy but has power and instincts.”

2. Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers

Highest ranking: 1 | Lowest ranking: 8

Age: 27 | Last year’s ranking: 7

After a fall into the back half of last year’s top 10 because of injury, McCaffrey returned to elite-back status in 2022.

He finished with nearly 1,900 total yards, and he averaged nearly one touchdown per game after the trade to San Francisco in October.

McCaffrey now has three seasons with at least 1,000 rushing yards and 700 receiving yards, trailing only Marshall Faulk (four) in NFL history.

“He’s one of the most versatile offensive players in the league,” an AFC executive said of McCaffrey. “He can be used on perimeter runs, interior runs, out of the backfield, split out. He’s in tremendous shape and has size, strength and speed. Injuries have taken him off the field, but when he’s healthy, he is still a game-changer and a guy that needs to be accounted for at all times.”

3. Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders

Highest ranking: 1 | Lowest ranking: 8

Age: 25 | Last year’s ranking: Honorable mention

Last offseason, the Las Vegas Raiders did not pick up Jacobs’ fifth-year option. He spent all season reminding them why they should have, leading the NFL in rushing yards (1,653) on 340 carries.

Jacobs became the Raiders’ first rushing leader since Hall of Famer Marcus Allen in 1985. He’s also the first NFL player since DeMarco Murray in 2014 to rush for at least 1,500 yards and register 400-plus receiving yards.

“[The Raiders] used him like they should have prior,” an NFL personnel exec said. “I don’t think they were using him properly. They gave him the ball often so he could get to the second level and use his twitch and make-you-miss ability.”

An NFL personnel evaluator added: “I like how he approaches things. They didn’t pick up his option, but he just went about his business, was a good teammate and produced in a huge way.”

4. Saquon Barkley, New York Giants

Highest ranking: 1 | Lowest ranking: 7

Age: 26 | Last year’s ranking: Honorable mention

Barkley realized the enormous potential that the league long saw for him in 2022.

The former No. 2 overall pick was ESPN’s top back in the 2020 ratings but fell out of the top 10 two years later because of injuries and bad production, with just 627 yards on 3.5 yards per carry from 2020 to ’21. Evaluators knocked his hesitant running style.

Until this year.

“He came with a running back mentality,” a veteran NFL offensive coach said. “He was physical, wasn’t dancing as much, and when he got to the second level, he was dangerous.”

Barkley’s presence impacts his teammates. Just look at quarterback Daniel Jones, who has 44 touchdown passes to 17 interceptions in his 34 starts with Barkley in his backfield. In 19 starts without Barkley, those numbers drop to 16 and 17. Barkley ranked second in explosive rushes (18) behind Chubb.

“He still has the ability to break the game open at any point,” an NFC exec said.

5. Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans

Highest ranking: 2 | Lowest ranking: 7

Age: 29 | Last year’s ranking: 1

The two-time rushing champion fell four spots, narrowly making the top five.

The issue with Henry is age (29) and tread. Entering his eighth NFL season, he has led the league in carries in three of the past four years, including 349 in 2022. That’s a lot to ask of a back, even a 247-pound iron man such as Henry.

But he’s still really good. His 888 rushing yards after contact last season were the second most by a player in a season since ESPN began tracking the stat in 2009. Adrian Peterson had 1,019 yards after contact in 2012.

“There’s a little decline, but he’s still an anomaly,” an NFL personnel director said. “You just don’t know how long it will last. If anyone can do it, it will be him. Adrian Peterson is a guy like that. They can last longer.”

6. Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

Highest ranking: 2 | Lowest ranking: 10

Age: 24 | Last year’s ranking: 2

After a historic 2021 campaign with 1,811 rushing yards, 18 touchdowns and an All-Pro bid, Taylor looked poised for the top spot for years to come.

But his 2022 campaign was challenging, missing six games with an ankle issue and running behind a porous line.

The Colts ranked 23rd in run block win rate in 2022, compared to seventh the year before.

As one NFL personnel executive sees it, this reality showed the strengths and shortcomings of Taylor’s game.

“He’s got top-end speed and can get the tough yards, but he’s not a creative guy who can do it on his own,” the executive said. “He needs it blocked up and then he can make it happen.”

7. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints

Highest ranking: 3 | Lowest ranking: Unranked

Age: 27 | Last year’s ranking: 5

Kamara is one of the toughest evaluations on the list. The former top-five back was considerably below the top six in this year’s voting. And the numbers suggest decline: He failed to eclipse 900 rushing yards in each of the past two seasons despite a combined 463 carries. He produced three 700-plus-yard receiving seasons with Drew Brees as his quarterback but failed to eclipse 500 in each of the past two.

But Kamara is still one of the NFL’s unique skill players. He’s the only player over the past three seasons to lead his team in rushing and receiving over that span.

“Still has very good feet, agility and change-of-direction skills,” an NFL personnel director said. “Has good initial burst as a runner on feel on both outside and inside runs. Still has some of the best contact balance, though he’s not an elite power guy, doesn’t have elite top-end speed and will eventually lose a half-step. Still a matchup problem as a route runner.”

Added an AFC scout: “Losing Sean Payton and Drew Brees really hurt him. But the skill set is still one of the best. I haven’t seen a dropoff there.”

8. Dalvin Cook, free agent

Highest ranking: 3 | Lowest ranking: Unranked

Age: 27 | Last year’s ranking: 4

Cook’s future with Minnesota was in question for much of the offseason, but there’s no doubt he has been an elite player throughout his career.

He is one of two rushers to record at least 1,000 yards in each of the last four seasons, along with Chubb. Last season marked Cook’s career low in yards per carry (4.4), but he remained highly productive with 1,173 yards and eight touchdowns. He also didn’t miss a game for the first time in his career, despite suffering a shoulder injury that required offseason surgery.

“He still has most of everything you want as far as vision, big-play ability,” an NFC scout said. “… “He’s probably not as elite as he once was and has been injured, but he should be really good for a team.”

Added an AFC exec: “He’s still top-five for me. The burst is still there, and he’s got the savvy for find holes and capitalize on them.”

9. Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys

Highest ranking: 4 | Lowest ranking: Unranked

Age: 26 | Last year’s ranking: Unranked

Many evaluators are high on Pollard’s ceiling after Dallas finally embraced him as the lead back, turning 190 carries into 1,007 yards and nine touchdowns. With Ezekiel Elliott now gone, Pollard should surpass the 200-carry mark in 2023.

“I call him a lemonade player — he turns lemons into lemonade, makes something out of nothing,” a veteran NFL offensive coach said. “It doesn’t have to be perfect for him to make plays.”

An AFC personnel added: “Speed, man. He’s got major burst.”

The Cowboys placed the franchise tag on Pollard, who’s set to earn $10.1 million this year.

“I like the player, but I need to see him do it another year before I place him in the top 10,” another veteran NFL coach said. “Need to see more.”

10. Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers

Highest ranking: 6 | Lowest ranking: Unranked

Age: 28 | Last year’s ranking: Honorable mention

Ekeler’s massive production helped him vault over the likes of Aaron Jones and Joe Mixon, but this was close.

It’s hard to argue with his 38 scrimmage touchdowns over the past two seasons — 12 more than any other NFL player.

An AFC exec said: “If Ekeler was 5-foot-11, he’d be top five.” Ekeler is listed as 5-10 but is considered by some to be smaller than that.

“Really explosive player, runs tougher than you’d think for his size, exceptional in the passing game. My only concern with him is pass protection,” a veteran NFL assistant coach said.

Voters who prefer a traditional back aren’t big supporters of Ekeler.

“Don’t see an elite or major impact player — more of a 1-2 punch niche guy alongside a big power back,” an NFL personnel executive said.

Honorable mentions

Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers: Jones is one of the NFL’s most underrated backs and was highly productive with 1,121 yards on 213 rushes (a 5.3 average) and 59 catches despite splitting carries with AJ Dillon. The two-time top-10 player also has finished 11th twice. “He does everything really well, so if you’re looking for that well-rounded back with pass-catching ability, I could see how he’s a top 10,” an AFC scout said. “I’m just not sure he has the special qualities of some of the other backs.”

Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans: Pierce made the Texans’ offense watchable as an explosive rookie back. He was on pace for 1,200-plus yards before a late-season injury ended his year; he finished with 939 yards and four touchdowns. “Will be a top-tier guy by next year,” an AFC executive said. “Power, vision, lots of YAC, tough to bring down, tough guy — unless they run him into the ground.”

Breece Hall, New York Jets: Was an early favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year before tearing an ACL in Week 7. Hall had 681 total yards through seven games, including a 61-yard run that showcased his breakaway speed. Multiple voters put Hall in the top five, with one comparing him to a “faster, bigger Matt Forte.” “He’s a volume back with big-play ability, fast, big, good in space and good as a receiver,” an AFC scout said. “Just a matter of if he looks healthy.”

Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars: Etienne recovered from a lost rookie year to injury and showcased major splash-play ability. Etienne’s four rushes of 40 or more yards tied Derrick Henry and Justin Fields for a league high. He finished with 1,125 yards, which ranked ninth. “Good back, good speed, was getting healthy — might have a breakout year,” a veteran NFL scout said. “Not a physical back but can do enough.”

Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots: Stevenson flourished as New England’s lead back, rushing for 1,040 yards on 210 carries along with 69 catches for 421 yards. “He’s sneaky fast but not explosive,” an AFC scout said. “He can run. Reminds me of Natrone Means a little bit — big, good feet, strong, solid grind-it-out player that will wear you down.”

Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks: Walker, a 2022 second-round pick, fit seamlessly into Seattle’s play-action offense with 10 rushes of 20 or more yards, tying for second among running backs. His 4.2 rush efficiency rating tied Najee Harris for the league high. “He’s like a good mix of everything,” a high-ranking NFL personnel official said. “He probably has the least power of the three [rookies from 2022, with Hall and Pierce], but he’s quick, good balance, strong lower body, always goes forward. He’s like an unassuming 120-yard rusher.”

Also receiving votes: Javonte Williams (Denver Broncos), Najee Harris (Pittsburgh Steelers), Miles Sanders (Carolina Panthers), AJ Dillon (Green Bay Packers)