| Lloyd Howell, who always seemed like kind of an odd fit for the job of NFLPA executive director, has abruptly resigned. Lots to unpack here from ESPN.com: NFL Players Association executive director Lloyd Howell Jr. resigned late Thursday, ending his embattled two-year tenure as the leader of the union. “It’s clear that my leadership has become a distraction to the important work the NFLPA advances every day,” Howell, 59, said in a statement released by the union. “For this reason, I have informed the NFLPA Executive Committee that I am stepping down as Executive Director of the NFLPA and Chairman of the Board of NFL Players effective immediately. I hope this will allow the NFLPA to maintain its focus on its player members ahead of the upcoming season.” Sources told ESPN that Howell resigned on his own and surprised some members of the NFLPA’s 10-person executive committee, which had selected the former chief financial officer of technology consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton as a finalist for the top job after a 16-month search shrouded in secrecy. Howell’s tenure had come under scrutiny after several recent reports from ESPN and the “Pablo Torre Finds Out” podcast. In May, ESPN reported that the FBI was investigating the financial dealings of the NFLPA and the MLB Players Association related to a multibillion-dollar group-licensing firm, OneTeam Partners. According to sources, the report triggered the NFLPA to hire Ronald C. Machen of law firm Wilmer Hale to review Howell’s activities as executive director. The FBI investigation, which is being conducted in conjunction with the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Brooklyn, New York, is continuing, sources said. Last week, ESPN reported that Howell was working as a paid, part-time consultant for the Carlyle Group, one of the league-approved private equity firms seeking ownership in NFL teams. Howell was asked by a union lawyer to consider resigning for conflict-of-interest reasons, a source said, but another source said he would do his “due diligence” before making a decision. He remains as a consultant to the Carlyle Group. ESPN also reported last week that Howell struck a confidentiality agreement with the NFL six months ago that hid from players the details of a January arbitration decision, including a finding that league executives urged team owners to reduce guaranteed player compensation. The 61-page ruling was first published by the “Pablo Torre Finds Out” podcast on June 24. And earlier Thursday, ESPN reported that Howell was sued for sexual discrimination and retaliation in 2011 while he was a senior executive at Booz Allen and that a dispute emerged about whether the players who voted for him as NFLPA executive director were aware of that lawsuit prior to his 2023 election. As recently as late Wednesday, two executive board members still gave a ringing endorsement to Howell’s leadership. “We felt great about the process,” one of them told ESPN. “We are 100% behind Lloyd.” What’s next from Mike Florio: Via Tom Pelissero of NFL Media, the NFLPA executive committee sent this message to players following Howell’s announcement: “This evening, Lloyd Howell informed us that he is stepping down as Executive Director of the union. We accepted his resignation and are grateful for his service. The Board will convene as soon as possible for a meeting on next steps and will be in touch with our membership soon.” The “Board” is the board of player representatives, the duly-elected one-per-team group that voted for Howell, and that will eventually vote for the next executive director. While the NFLPA Constitution doesn’t address the procedure for assigning an interim executive director, they did it in 2008, following the death of Gene Upshaw. Union general counsel Richard Berthelsen became the short-term replacement, pending the hiring of DeMaurice Smith. Last week, Don Davis was gaining traction as the possible interim executive director. Another possibility is current general counsel Tom DePaso, who will be retiring. It can be whoever the executive committee and/or the board of player representative wants it to be, and that person would then have an opportunity to prove that he or she should earn the permanent position — based on the work done while temporarily holding down the fort. Another NFLPA issue has arisen with this update from Chris Cwik of YahooSports.com: The NFLPA fired arbitrator Sidney Moreland on Wednesday, just months after he ruled against the union in a grievance concerning comments made by former NFLPA president JC Tretter, according to Sportico. The news comes the same week Moreland’s ruling was obtained by journalists Mike Florio and Pablo Torre. Moreland’s dismissal reportedly had nothing to do with the ruling being leaked, sources told Sportico. The NFL and NFLPA have the ability to fire arbitrators between July 10 and July 20 of each year, per an article in the collective-bargaining agreement, so the timing could be a coincidence. On Thursday, Florio and Torre revealed the NFL and NFLPA worked to try and bury a ruling made by Moreland concerning players faking injuries as a strategy to receive a better contract. The grievance stemmed from an appearance by Tretter, then the NFLPA president, on “The Ross Tucker Football Podcast.” On the program, Tretter was asked about running back holdouts and the resistance from some teams about handing out significant deals to running backs. Tretter responded by implying it was a smart strategy for a player to fake an injury to sit out of practices while seeking a new contract. He seemed to recognize his error during the show, saying, “I don’t think I’m allowed to ever recommend that, at least publicly, but I think each player needs to find a way to build up leverage to try to get a fair deal.” The NFL believed Tretter’s comments violated the collective-bargaining agreement, and filed a grievance against Tretter two months after that interview. Said the NFL, in a Tuesday statement to PFT: “The Arbitrator upheld the Management Council’s grievance in its entirety and found that Mr. Tretter’s statements violated the CBA by improperly encouraging players to fake injury. As a result, he prohibited Mr. Tretter and the union from such conduct in the future. The NFL did not allege that any individual player ever feigned injury. We are grateful for the arbitrator’s thorough review of the evidence and order enforcing the CBA.” Moreland specifically called out Article 2, Section 2 of the CBA and Article 3 in the CBA in his ruling. Article 2, Section 2 of the CBA contains a passage stating both sides will “faithfully” adhere to the rules laid out in the CBA. Article 3 deals with strikes and work stoppages. Moreland essentially ruled that Tretter’s comments encouraged players to skirt CBA rules by engaging in mini work stoppages. It marks at least the second ruling the NFL and NFLPA tried to prevent from being reported. Florio and Torre revealed details of the first grievance in June, which found the league and commissioner Roger Goodell encouraged teams to reduce guaranteed contracts to veteran players. The league and players’ union was also accused of trying to hide certain details of that ruling from players. It’s unclear why both the NFL and NFLPA felt it was necessary to bury both rulings. In the case of the collusion ruling, the NFLPA would presumably want that information to go public. While the NFLPA lost that grievance, an arbitrator found some evidence of collusion within the league, a significant revelation. In the case of the ruling unearthed by Florio and Torre on Thursday, the NFL had no reason to hide its results. The league ultimately came out on top in Moreland’s ruling. The decision adds another layer of confusion to the relationship between the NFL and NFLPA. That relationship has faced scrutiny recently, as an ESPN report revealed NFLPA executive director Lloyd Howell worked as a consultant with an NFL-ownership group during his time with the NFLPA, a possible conflict of interest. |
| NFC EAST |
| WASHINGTONWhile we were gone, Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com got to #10 on his countdown to #1 in his preseason rankings: Other NFL team previews: 32. Titans | 31. Saints | 30. Browns | 29. Panthers | 28. Jets | 27. Giants | 26. Raiders | 25. Patriots | 24. Colts | 23. Dolphins | 22. Jaguars | 21. Falcons | 20. Steelers | 19. Cardinals | 18. Cowboys | 17. Seahawks | 16. Texans | 15. Bears | 14. Bengals | 13. 49ers | 12. Rams | 11. Broncos Washington Commanders fans were in purgatory for a long time. They were owed a season like 2024. It’s not hard to pick the highlight of a magical season led by historic rookie Jayden Daniels. The Hail Mary win over the Chicago Bears was one of the great finishes in NFL history. However, that was far from the only one. There was Daniels being nearly perfect early in the season as Washington knocked off the Bengals. Daniels beat the Eagles on a touchdown pass with six seconds left, and that was Philadelphia’s only loss from September through the Super Bowl. The next week, Daniels and Washington toppled the Falcons on an overtime touchdown pass. It was a season full of moments that will be replayed by NFL Films for a long time. Daniels had five touchdown passes in the final 30 seconds of regulation or overtime, which was two more than any other quarterback since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger. His 12 touchdown passes in the fourth quarter and overtime set an NFL rookie record. The good vibes kept going in the playoffs, when Daniels led a late game-winning drive in the wild card win at Tampa Bay, and then guided a shocking upset at Detroit to put Washington in its first NFC championship game since the 1991 season. It was an awesome, memorable season that drew plenty of Washington fans back in after they had given up during the woebegone, humiliating Daniel Snyder era. It was also completely and entirely unsustainable. Daniels could end up being the most clutch quarterback in NFL history and maybe never replicate what he did as a rookie. Washington caught a lot of breaks, not just with those memorable game-winning plays, but sometimes the fluky plays that set them up. An inordinate amount of close wins (the Commanders had nine wins in one-score games and five in games decided by three points or fewer, including playoffs) isn’t the only regression factor either. The Commanders converted 20 of 23 fourth downs, and that 87% rate was by far the highest in modern NFL history. That will regress, perhaps by a lot. The Commanders also benefited from a soft schedule. Of Washington’s 12 wins last season, 11 came against non-playoff teams. That was the most in the NFL. Winning two playoff games helps mitigate the concern that they were a product of an easy slate, but it’s another factor that won’t repeat with a tougher schedule. They also had the fifth fewest adjusted games lost due to injury, which was fairly lucky. And now Terry McLaurin is going public with his unhappiness over his contract situation. It’s OK to celebrate a storybook season, be excited for the future with an instant superstar at quarterback, and acknowledge that the next step may not be forward. The Commanders were never meant to be a Super Bowl contender in 2025, and absolutely no one expected it in 2024. The roster needed a lot of work going into last season; it looked like a long-term rebuild. But GM Adam Peters did a good job boosting roster depth last offseason, new coach Dan Quinn was a strong candidate to win NFL Coach of the Year, Daniels changed practically everything, and the Commanders arrived much sooner than expected. That doesn’t mean all the holes on the roster were filled. Maybe Daniels is so good that Washington will never slip. He was incredible last season and probably deserved to make a few NFL MVP ballots, even as a rookie. But the same things were said about C.J. Stroud a year ago, and his play slipped a bit in his second season. Washington needed a season like 2024. A lot of fans were driven away by Snyder. That’s replaced by a generation of fans wearing No. 5 jerseys and reminiscing for years over all the spectacular moments from Daniels’ rookie season. Now we’ll find out if the good times continue in Daniels’ second season. Offseason gradeThe Commanders’ big season might have sped up their internal thinking on becoming a contender. The two biggest moves of the offseason were trades for older veterans. Washington traded a lot to the Texans for left tackle Laremy Tunsil and a fourth-round pick, giving up 2025 third- and seventh-round picks, and 2026 second- and fourth-round picks. Tunsil will be 31 years old this season, but is a major upgrade for a line that needed it. The second big move was for receiver Deebo Samuel, who was acquired from the 49ers for a fifth-round pick. Samuel is 29 and coming off the lowest yards-per-game output of his career. The big free-agent addition was defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw, who got a three-year, $45 million deal that was viewed as an overpay. Washington cut longtime defensive tackle Jonathan Allen, who was signed for $51 million over three years by the Vikings. They added Von Miller this week, after his release from the Bills. The draft brought first-round pick Josh Conerly Jr., who could be the team’s starting right tackle right away, and second-round pick Trey Amos to help at cornerback. Those were the team’s only picks in the top 127. Tunsil and Samuel should provide some short-term value, and those moves show that the team entered win-now mode sooner than expected. Grade: B Quarterback reportA year ago in the Texans preview, we listed the best rookie quarterback seasons in NFL history and posited that C.J. Stroud had a good argument as No. 1 in an impressive group: 1983 Dan Marino2004 Ben Roethlisberger2011 Cam Newton2012 Andrew Luck2012 Robert Griffin III2012 Russell Wilson2016 Dak Prescott2020 Justin Herbert2023 C.J. Stroud If Stroud did have the best rookie season ever, he might have held the title for only one season. Last season Jayden Daniels threw for 3,568 yards and 25 touchdowns with a 100.1 rating, while also rushing for an NFL rookie quarterback record 891 yards, with six rushing touchdowns. He also led multiple miraculous finishes and a deep playoff run. He was simply unbelievable. It has to be mentioned that Stroud followed up his historic rookie season with a much tougher second season, and Daniels isn’t immune from having a sophomore slump. But make no mistake: Daniels had what looks like the greatest rookie QB season ever, is already one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks and, with all apologies to Jalen Hurts, has a good argument as the best quarterback in the NFC already. BetMGM odds breakdownFrom Yahoo’s Ben Fawkes: “Jayden Daniels entered last season as a rookie and this season as arguably the best quarterback in the NFC. The Commanders traded for WR Deebo Samuel and LT Laremy Tunsil, and drafted Josh Conerly Jr. in Round 1 to help Daniels. The Commanders are favored in 12 games, but also have some tough road games sprinkled throughout (at Chargers, at Packers, at Chiefs, at Vikings, along with two clashes against the Eagles). A win total of 9.5 at BetMGM — the franchise’s highest since 2001 — seems a tad optimistic, but it’s hard to envision the Commanders (-160 to make playoffs) missing the postseason if Daniels stays healthy.” Yahoo’s fantasy takeFrom Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “Deebo Samuel was a first-team All-Pro receiver back in 2021, but that feels like a lifetime ago. He’s missed chunks of time in the past three seasons (he was also hurt for most of 2020) and the 49ers practically gave him away in a trade, recouping just a fifth-round pick from Washington. I still expect Terry McLaurin to be the featured target here — the contract stuff should work itself out — and I’m not betting on Samuel onboarding quickly to his new team. Although Samuel’s ADP has slipped just outside the Yahoo Top 100, I still can’t view him as a proactive pick.” Stat to rememberWashington scored 45 points and put up 481 yards in a stunning win over the Lions in the divisional around, and both numbers were the second-most in a playoff game in franchise history. Jayden Daniels’ 350 combined yards passing and rushing were the second-most for a rookie quarterback in NFL history, and he was the second rookie quarterback to lead his team to a win over a conference No. 1 seed in NFL history, joining Joe Flacco. Even if the Commanders benefited from close wins and a favorable schedule, blasting a 15-2 Lions team in Detroit by a 45-31 score opened up a lot of eyes. A wild-card win the week before at Tampa Bay was impressive too. The playoff run to the NFC championship game raised the bar for the Commanders going into this season and beyond. Burning question Can Washington’s defense improve to being average?Just like the playoff wins at Tampa Bay and Detroit helped elevate Washington’s profile, a 55-23 loss to the Eagles in the NFC championship game showed the defense still needs plenty of work. Philadelphia tied an NFL playoff record with seven touchdown runs in that game and the 55 points scored were the most ever in a conference championship game. Washington allowed 106 points in three playoff games, and 980 yards in the final two games. The Commanders’ only Pro Bowler on defense last season was linebacker Bobby Wagner, who is a future Hall of Famer but also will be 35 years old this season. He won’t be great forever, though it seems that way. Washington needs to upgrade its defensive talent, but the team’s two biggest trade acquisitions and its first-round pick were at offensive tackle and receiver. Signing defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw helps, though that might be offset by cutting Jonathan Allen, and Von Miller could contribute. Signing cornerback Jonathan Jones and safety Will Harris as well as drafting cornerback Trey Amos should upgrade the secondary, and Dan Quinn remains a great defensive mind, but it’s still hard to figure out where a major improvement comes from a defense that was 23rd in DVOA and 22nd in EPA (expected points added) last season. Best case scenarioWhen a player has what is widely considered the greatest season for a rookie quarterback ever, it’s hard to put a limit on his future. After what Jayden Daniels did last season, coming off a Heisman Trophy season in college, it’s not crazy to think he could win NFL MVP this season and maybe a few more in the future. Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes each won MVP their second seasons, and Daniels could find himself in their QB tier by next year (if he’s not there already). Unless you’re the 2024 Bengals, having an MVP-level quarterback usually means a playoff berth and contender status. It’s hard to imagine the Commanders winning a Super Bowl with some of their roster holes at running back, on the offensive and defensive lines and in the secondary. But they had those deficiencies last season too and found themselves in the NFL’s final four. Laremy Tunsil and rookie Josh Conerly Jr. could transform the offensive line, and Deebo Samuel could have a rejuvenation in Washington and help Terry McLaurin get more single coverage as he comes off a career year. Could the Commanders be a very surprising Super Bowl team? Probably not, but when you have a talent like Daniels at quarterback it can’t be ruled out. He really might be that good. Nightmare scenarioWe don’t remember it anymore, but the concern about Jayden Daniels a year ago was that he might be susceptible to injury because of his somewhat slight build as a running quarterback. Daniels was healthy all last season. Saying the nightmare scenario for a team is an injury to its quarterback isn’t a revelation; that’s almost every team’s fear. Things could go wrong for Washington other than a Daniels injury. He could regress in his second season like some other NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year winners. There are still many questions around him. Maybe the Commanders find out that Deebo Samuel isn’t the playmaker he once was, Laremy Tunsil was a reason Houston had a horrid offensive line last season, the uninspiring running back duo of Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler can’t support Daniels, Terry McLaurin’s contract situation impacts his play, and a defense that wasn’t very good last season isn’t much help at all. Had the Commanders lost every regular-season game decided by three or fewer points last season, they would have finished 8-9. That’s unfair because Washington should usually have a better record than expected in close games due to Daniels, but it shows the Commanders having a losing season isn’t farfetched. And while that much of a dip would feel like a big disappointment, the real explanation would probably be that the good fortune from 2024 just swung too far the other way. The crystal ball saysI was high on the Commanders last season and thought they could be the NFL’s surprise playoff team (and yes, there are receipts). That’s why it’s hard to turn on them this season. Washington’s ride last season was incredibly fun and deserved. Jayden Daniels is already one of the faces of the NFL and has an MVP future. But even an optimistic outlook on the Commanders a year ago didn’t have them as a 12-win team that would make the NFC championship game. Improving upon that will be very, very hard. The Commanders deserve a lofty ranking here after last season’s breakout, but with caveats that there are too many regression factors to ignore. Washington wasn’t supposed to be a contender already. An extraordinary season in which the Commanders caught numerous green lights doesn’t change that. The Commanders will be good again, and perhaps Daniels is so good that he can keep all of those luck factors from last season from evening out, but let’s assume their record will be a bit worse and maybe they miss the playoffs. And that will be OK. No matter what happens this season, the future is very bright. We note that Schwab has nine teams left – the Eagles, Packers, Vikings, Lions and Buccaneers in the NFC. The Bills, Chiefs, Ravens and Chargers in AFC. He has the four teams in the NFC West bunched between 12 and 19. The highest AFC South team, the Texans, are barely in the top half at #16. |
| AFC NORTH |
| PITTSBURGHNo surprise that EDGE T.J. WATT gets a huge payday. Brooke Pryor of ESPN.com: T.J. Watt and the Steelers have agreed to a three-year extension that will make him the highest-paid non-quarterback in NFL history — again. Watt, who turns 31 in October, agreed to a three-year, $123 million extension with the Steelers on Thursday afternoon, sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter, ending a contentious, monthslong contract negotiation. The deal comes with $108 million fully guaranteed at signing, and the $41 million average per year tops the $40.25 average salary given to Cincinnati Bengals star wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase and the $40 million awarded to Cleveland Browns standout edge rusher Myles Garrett earlier this offseason. Watt, who leads the NFL with 73.5 sacks in the past five seasons, didn’t report to the Steelers’ mandatory minicamp in June as the two sides worked through negotiations. But with the contract agreed to, Watt will be expected to report to the Steelers’ training camp at St. Vincent College in Latrobe, Pennsylvania, on Tuesday. Watt celebrated the deal by posting a picture on Instagram of him flexing and yelling in a Steelers uniform, a much different message than the one he seemingly sent earlier in the offseason with a story post of him flashing a peace sign in uniform. Though the negotiations had continued throughout the offseason, the Steelers were confident their 2017 first-round pick would remain with the organization. “I’m hopeful T.J. will finish his career here,” general manager Omar Khan said at league meetings in March. History Made — AgainThe five deals with the highest APY given to non-quarterbacks all happened this offseason. Player Team APY DateT.J. Watt PIT $41M July 17Ja’Marr Chase CIN $40.25M March 18Myles Garrett CLE $40M March 14Danielle Hunter HOU $35.6M March 21Maxx Crosby LV $35.5M March 5— ESPN Research Watt’s teammates were also vocal in urging the Steelers to secure the edge rusher. Not only did Aaron Rodgers voice his support for Watt in an appearance on “The Pat McAfee Show,” but defensive captain Cameron Heyward also sent a strong message to Khan about his teammate in an interview with “The Rich Eisen Show” this week. “I’m going up to Omar and I’m telling him, ‘That’s not happening,'” Heyward said, “if there’s even a trade that gets up there. I don’t think it helps our team to trade a guy like that.” In doing the deal now, the Steelers squash any lingering drama around one of the team’s defensive cornerstones as they enter a critical preseason after overhauling their roster with moves that included signing Rodgers and trading for All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey and wide receiver DK Metcalf. The last time the Steelers made Watt the highest-paid non-quarterback in 2021 — with a four-year, $112 million deal that averaged $28 million per year — the two sides didn’t agree to a deal until days before the regular-season opener. Watt reported to training camp that year, but he mostly worked out off to the side during team periods. The 2021 NFL Defensive Player of the Year, Watt led the league in sacks for three of his eight seasons, and he led in forced fumbles twice, including last season. Even so, Watt struggled down the stretch in 2024. He finished the year with 11.5 sacks, but he had just two sacks and four quarterback hits in the Steelers’ season-ending five-game losing streak. During those games, he played 260 of 261 snaps on the left side, according to ESPN Research. Watt acknowledged his shortcomings in that stretch and said he would be open to moving around. “I prefer the left, but at this point in my career, I want to be an impact player,” he said in January. “I don’t want to be schemed out of games. I want to be able to deliver the football in good field positions or take the football away, and it wasn’t a good enough year for myself when it comes to that.” Are you surprised to see Texans EDGE DANIELLE HUNTER on that list with the other four? Larry Brown with this reaction from brother J.J. Watt: TJ Watt on Thursday received a contract extension from the Pittsburgh Steelers, and that left his brother JJ in awe of the amount. TJ’s contract is for three years and $123 million, with $108 million guaranteed. The contract makes TJ the highest paid non-quarterback in NFL history, surpassing the deal Myles Garrett received from the Cleveland Browns. JJ reacted to the news of his brother’s contract with three words: “Earned. Deserved. Incredible,” JJ wrote in a post on X. After sharing his serious reaction, JJ then teased his brother. “I swear, if this guy even lets me begin to reach for my wallet at dinner…,” JJ wrote, noting the difference in career earnings between them. JJ had career earnings of just under $130 million. TJ is set to make $123 million on this extension alone. He already has made nearly $111 million during his career, so you can add the two figures together and project his career earnings to be over $230 million. TJ had 61 tackles and 11.5 sacks with 6 forced fumbles in 17 games last season. He has 108 sacks across eight NFL seasons, including the record-tying 22.5 sacks he had in 2021. Mike Florio points out that T.J. Watt’s reign as the highest paid non-QB should be a brief one: Steelers linebacker T.J. Watt is now the highest-paid non-quarterback in NFL history. He’ll hold that title until the moment Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons signs his next contract. It’s unclear when that will be. Still, barring something completely unforeseen and unexpected, Parsons will get a deal. And it will be worth more than Watt’s $41 million per year in new money. The question is whether Parsons will set the new standard by a little — or by a lot. Will he get $41.1 million? $42 million? $45 million? More? Our guess is it’ll be closer to $45 million, if not more than that. He’s well younger than the edge rushers who have gotten to the $40 million mark (Watt and Myles Garrett). And, again, the longer the Cowboys wait, the more expensive the final deal likely will be. It’s actually good for the Cowboys and Parsons that Watt’s deal was done. Parsons and his agents may have wanted to wait for Watt before doing a deal. Even though Parsons might exceed Watt and Garrett by a significant margin, the Watt deal remained a key data point for Parsons. Now, Parsons has the information. He can do a deal. If and when the Cowboys decide to finally do it.– – -Mike DeFabio of The Athletic tries to figure out what we can expect from post-40 QB AARON RODGERS in 2025: That hasn’t stopped over-the-hill quarterbacks from trying to beat back Father Time. In the Super Bowl era, 22 QBs have thrown a pass at age 40 or older. But trying to play quarterback at 40 and actually succeeding are two different things. As Brees learned that day, there’s Brady … and then there’s everyone else. Since 1970, over-40 QBs have combined for 12 playoff wins. Brady has 10, including two Super Bowls. The others? Brees and Brett Favre each did it once. When the Pittsburgh Steelers signed 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers, they bet against history. A team that hasn’t won a playoff game since 2017 is counting on Rodgers, who turns 42 in December, to snap the skid. No one knows how this season will unfold, but let’s open the history books to see what the stats say about what the Steelers can expect. The original old guysThe first 40-year-old quarterback came in 1961, according to the Pro Football Hall of Fame. “Chuckin’” Charlie Conerly, who went on to play the Marlboro Man, went 2-2 as the New York Giants’ starter but was benched for the newly acquired Y.A. Tittle. Quarterback/kicker George Blanda famously played until age 48 with the Oakland Raiders. Coincidentally, his career ended in Pittsburgh on Jan. 4, 1976, in the AFC Championship Game, as he kicked a field goal and an extra point in a Raiders loss. But his final start behind center was years earlier at age 41 in 1968 (he threw four touchdowns and converted seven kicks in a 43-7 rout). Because earlier record-keeping gets fuzzy, we’ll focus on the Super Bowl era. From 1970 to 1995, quarterbacks in their age-40 season (as of Dec. 31 in a given season) or older combined for just 19 starts, according to Pro Football Reference. It was often a failing endeavor, even for some of the league’s legends. Traded to the San Diego Chargers after 17 seasons and three league MVP awards with the Baltimore Colts, a 40-year-old Johnny Unitas opened the 1973 season with 55 passing yards, three interceptions and five sacks in a 38-0 loss to Washington. His 1-3 run with San Diego ended, maybe fittingly, in his hometown of Pittsburgh, as he went 2 of 9 with two picks before being replaced by rookie Dan Fouts. Other Hall of Fame QBs playing in their 40s include Sonny Jurgensen, who made four starts while splitting time with Billy Kilmer in Washington in 1974, and Len Dawson, who started five games for the Kansas City Chiefs in 1975. Nobody age 41 or older started multiple games in a season until Warren Moon, who gave Father Time his toughest pre-Brady battle. Moon started 14 games for the Seattle Seahawks in 1997, his age-41 season, and earned his ninth Pro Bowl selection. He was limited by injuries in 1998 and then was a backup with Kansas City for two seasons before retiring at 44. Vinny Testaverde didn’t match Moon’s heights, but he did play five seasons in his 40s despite, like Rodgers, tearing his Achilles tendon in the New York Jets’ season opener in 1999, two months before he turned 36. He made 32 starts (and 39 appearances) in those final five seasons, although he led the league in interceptions with 20 in 2004. Many others have made spot starts or served as backups, including Doug Flutie and Matt Hasselbeck. Joe Flacco, who turned 40 in January, is competing for the Cleveland Browns’ starting job this summer. But only six 40-plus QBs have started double-digit games in a season: Moon, Testaverde, Favre, Brady, Brees and Rodgers last season. Models for Rodgers to follow Brett FavreThough Moon and Testaverde pushed boundaries, the first quarterback to lead a legitimate playoff contender after his 40th birthday was the man who preceded Rodgers in Green Bay. In August 2009, Farve came out of pseudo-retirement for the second time to join the loaded Minnesota Vikings. Despite a torn rotator cuff in his throwing shoulder, Favre had perhaps his best statistical season, posting a career-high 107.2 passer rating and finishing fourth in MVP voting as the Vikings rolled to 12-4 and routed the Cowboys in the divisional playoffs. However, Favre’s quest to cap his career with a second Lombardi Trophy fell short in the NFC Championship Game. With the Vikings tied with the Saints and on the edge of field goal range in the final seconds, Favre threw a now-infamous interception to Tracy Porter and never got the ball back, as the Saints won on the first possession of overtime. Favre played one more season, at 41, even throwing for a career-high 446 yards against the Arizona Cardinals, but the 2009 magic was gone. He went 5-8 with 11 touchdowns and 19 interceptions, and a shoulder injury snapped his 321-game iron-man streak two weeks before a concussion ended his career. Drew BreesFive days after his 40th birthday, Brees came within a missed pass interference penalty of his second Super Bowl appearance. After no flag was thrown, the 2018 Saints fell to the Los Angeles Rams in overtime of the NFC Championship Game. Brees returned in 2019 and 2020 to play his age-40 and 41 seasons. He was better than Brady in some statistical categories, but staying healthy was an obstacle. After an Aaron Donald hit in Week 2 of 2019, Brees needed thumb surgery, missing five games. He still finished 8-3 with one of his most efficient seasons, posting a career-high 116.3 passer rating and finishing second in EPA per dropback (0.27) behind MVP Lamar Jackson, but that season ended with an overtime loss to the Vikings at home in the wild-card round. At 41 in 2020, Brees’ injuries piled up. He missed four games with broken ribs and a collapsed lung. He revealed after the season he played through issues in his shoulder, foot and abdomen. “I only really felt good in one game,” Brees told the team’s website. “I had a lot of limitations throughout the season as to what I could and couldn’t do, and I recognized that. And that’s really hard for a competitor.” Despite those limitations, Brees finished second in completion rate (70.5 percent), sixth in passer rating (106.4) and 11th in EPA per dropback (0.11) as the Saints went 9-3 before running into Brady’s Bucs. As Brees aged, his playing style didn’t have to change substantially. Ever since college, in former Purdue coach Joe Tiller’s “basketball on grass” offense, Brees’ game was predicated upon quick decision-making and accuracy. With some of his mobility gone and his arm strength waning slightly, he leaned into a short, quick passing game more than ever. In 2019, Brees ranked 32nd among eligible QBs in air yards per attempt (6.4) and 31st in passes of 20-plus air yards (7.9 percent), according to TruMedia. He sank to 34th (6.0) and 35th (4.6 percent) in those categories, respectively, in 2020. However, his accuracy and Sean Payton’s ability to scheme mismatches kept the Saints competitive until the end. Tom BradySix months before his 40th birthday, Brady led a historic 25-point comeback to beat the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl LI. Many other quarterbacks might have seen this as an ideal time to walk away on top. Brady was not like other QBs. From 2017 to 2022, Brady played six seasons after turning 40 — and did so at a remarkably high level. He was named MVP at age 40 in 2017. At 41, he hoisted the Lombardi Trophy a sixth time. He did it again two years later with the Bucs, three weeks after sending Brees into retirement. In a career already filled with dizzying numbers, Brady kept piling on. His three highest touchdown totals and five of his 10 highest passing yardage totals came in his 40s. In 2021, at age 44, he threw for a career-high 5,316 yards and 43 touchdowns (second most of his career), finishing second in MVP voting. A whopping 31 percent of his record 89,214 career passing yards came after his 30s. The Buccaneers’ offense revolved around Brady’s right arm to the very end, as he led the league in attempts and completions at age 44 and 45, including career highs of 733 and 490, respectively, in 2022. But the Bucs went 8-9 — the first losing season of Brady’s 23-year career (22 as a starter) — and Brady finally walked away. Notably absent from Brady’s 40s? Injuries. He started all 112 possible games (including playoffs) over his final six seasons, yet another glaring outlier in the history of aging QBs. What does it mean for Rodgers?For the better part of a decade, Rodgers has been thinking about playing into his 40s. “I’d love to play to 40,” a 35-year-old Rodgers told NBC’s Peter King in 2018. “I just think that number means a lot. Obviously, Tom (Brady) is kind of rewriting the book. Brett (Favre) had a good season when he turned 40. My goal is to be able to move like I do, or close to how I do, and still be able to do that at 40.” However, three months before his 40th birthday, Rodgers ruptured his Achilles in his Jets debut. Injuries, as history tells us, should be one of his primary concerns. The toll of a physical game truncated both of Brees’ final seasons and essentially ended Favre’s career. For Rodgers, the lingering effects of the torn Achilles (and reported knee and hamstring issues) compromised his mobility in 2024. As a result, for just the fourth time in his career, he had a negative EPA per dropback against the blitz (-0.19), according to TruMedia. That was the worst mark among starting QBs who attempted at least 300 passes. He was also sacked ninth most (40), as the magician-like ability to evade the rush disappeared. During the Jets’ 5-12 season, Rodgers threw for 3,897 yards, 28 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. However, the underlying stats show he wasn’t as productive as those raw numbers suggest. His passer rating (90.5) was a career-worst (minimum 20 attempts). His EPA per dropback had been positive in every complete season through 2021 and was as high as 0.40 in the mid-2000s. But it’s been negative for the last two complete seasons, in 2022 (-0.03) and 2024 (-0.02). Many other quarterbacks have leaned on accuracy and decision-making as their pocket movement declined. Brees enjoyed his second-highest completion percentage at 40 (74.3 percent), and Favre posted a career best (68.4 percent). Rodgers’ mark in 2024 (63.0) was the fourth lowest of his career. Brees (four) and Favre (seven) each threw their fewest interceptions at 40. Rodgers threw his third most (11). So, what can the Steelers and Rodgers take from history to improve upon his 2024 season? One reason for optimism is Rodgers has thrived in the West Coast offense, which often relies on quick, precise passes thrown with timing and anticipation. Last year, Rodgers’ 6.9 air yards per attempt was the second-lowest mark of his career. The Steelers will likely try to lean on a quick passing game to protect him from the rush and get the ball in the hands of playmakers. The supporting cast will need to do more than its share. A consistent running game led by Adrian Peterson helped Favre, and ferocious defenses backed Brady and Brees. The Steelers’ highly compensated defense and the investments they’ve made in the running game will need to pay off to limit Rodgers’ exposure. Rodgers will need to prove that with age comes wisdom. He’s always been a cerebral player with an elite football IQ. Thinking his way around the football field might be his best hope of becoming the fourth QB in NFL history to win a playoff game after 40. Rodgers has said he’s “pretty sure” this will be his final season. Time will tell whether it ends up more like Brady, who added two rings to his legacy in his 40s, or like Unitas and Blanda, who watched their careers come to a screeching halt in Pittsburgh. |
| AFC EAST |
| NEW ENGLANDAn interesting twist with Bill Belichick and Robert Kraft debating who was braver for trusting the other. Saad Yousuf of The Athletic: New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft has had plenty to say regarding Bill Belichick since the two men ended their partnership as owner and head coach of one of the greatest dynasties in sports history in January of 2024. In Kraft’s latest comments, on the “Dudes on Dudes” podcast co-hosted by former Patriots stars Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski, the 84-year-old owner said that he took a “big risk” in 1999 when he lured Belichick away from the rival New York Jets. Edelman asked Kraft what was the best decision he made since purchasing the Patriots. “Well, the one that got questioned the most was in 1999,” Kraft said. “I gave up a No. 1 draft pick for a coach (who) had only won a little over 40 percent of his games to get him out … I think getting Bill Belichick to come to the Patriots in 1999 was a big risk, and I got hammered in the Boston media. “But he was with us for 24 years and we did OK.” In an interview with ESPN published Wednesday, Belichick said the risk was taken on the other side. “As I told Robert multiple times through the years, I took a big risk by taking the New England Patriots head-coaching job,” Belichick said. “I already had an opportunity to be the head coach of the New York Jets, but the ownership situation was unstable.” Belichick went on to say he was warned by multiple previous Patriots coaches and other NFL organizations that taking the Patriots job was going to “come with many internal obstacles.” Belichick expanded on his view of the risk that came with taking the Patriots job over the Jets job, pointing to the Jets being in the conference championship game during the 1998 season and the Patriots being in a tough cap situation during Belichick’s first season at the helm. The now North Carolina Tar Heels coach told ESPN he appreciated Kraft giving him the opportunity to make the roster changes needed in 2000 to pave the way for the Patriots to win the Super Bowl the next season. But when asked why he felt Kraft made statements that hiring him was “a big risk,” Belichick simply responded: “You’ll have to ask Robert.” |
| THIS AND THAT |
| OVER – UNDER PICKSVic Tafur of The Athletic offers his 2025 team wins over-under best bets: Best bets Houston Texans over 9.5 (+100)For having a disappointing season last year, the Texans still won 10 games (going over the projected total) and only trailed the Chiefs by one point entering the fourth quarter of the divisional playoff round. They were 4-1 in the games where they had both Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs, before injuries and predictable play calling exposed a terrible offensive line. C.J. Stroud was sacked 54 times and was understandably a little jumpy. The offensive line is still a big concern but Nick Caley will be more innovative than Bobby Slowik with the X’s and O’s, and we like the additions at receiver of Christian Kirk and rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel to go with Collins. With their great pass rush, it’s impossible not to see the Texans winning at least 10 games for a third straight season. New England Patriots under 8.5 (+100)We like Mike Vrabel fine, but to hear people talk this offseason, the new Patriots coach is a combination of Vince Lombardi and Bill Belichick. New England is coming off back-to-back four-win seasons and was not favored in a single game last season. The Patriots had a point differential of -128. Now, thanks to Vrabel and an aggressive offseason, the Patriots are picked to more than double their win total. Vrabel did make the playoffs three times in his six years as coach in Tennessee, but was fired after two losing seasons so maybe people can stop blowing up the Hall of Fame balloons. Quarterback Drake Maye and the young secondary of Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis III are fine, but overpaying new defensive players and bringing in Diggs and Shoeless Mack Hollins doesn’t add up to nine wins. Minnesota Vikings over 9.5 (+105)To hear everyone tell it, Sam Darnold fell apart in the playoffs and single-handedly ruined the Vikings’ 14-win season. But now he is gone … and the Vikings are four or five games worse? Tackle Christian Darrisaw is back from injury and the Vikings, after collapsing down the stretch, will have one of the best offensive lines again. Not to mention the best receiver in the NFL. The defense is still nasty — thanks to coordinator Brian Flores not being able to get a better job because he is suing the league — and added Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave. So, apparently the issue here is just quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who missed all of his rookie season with a knee injury and had the Vikings flirting with Aaron Rodgers this offseason. C’mon. Man, this team wins 10 games with J.J. from “Good Times” at quarterback. Dallas Cowboys under 8.5 (-140)The Cowboys were quiet this offseason, not making any splashy signings and firing coach Mike McCarthy for an in-house guy (Brian Schottenheimer) who was not mentioned on any coaching list league-wide. (And there are a lot of lists!) Dallas did trade for receiver George Pickens, who on paper is a perfect fit — a deep threat to line up opposite CeeDee Lamb and take advantage of Dak Prescott’s big arm. But Mike Tomlin had reached the end of his wits with Pickens in Pittsburgh, and the last time he let a star player leave, Antonio Brown showed up with scorched feet in a hot air balloon and put the Raiders through hell. We’re also concerned with the running game, as the Cowboys will regret letting Rico Dowdle walk. This season will hit the rocks during a brutal Week 12 through 15 stretch where the Cowboys play the Eagles, Chiefs, Lions and Vikings and Jerry Jones starts openly pining for Arch Manning. Tampa Bay Buccaneers over 9.5 (-110)The Buccaneers take care of business in the regular season every year and have gone over their projected win total in five of the last six seasons. Now, they have all 11 starters back on offense, including receiver Chris Godwin, who didn’t go for what he should have in free agency and Tampa Bay smartly didn’t let him leave. This team also drafts well, and first-round pick Emeka Egbuka will join Mike Evans and Godwin in making the reborn Baker Mayfield very happy to keep slinging it. The Buccaneers have a new offensive coordinator for the third straight year, but clearly that doesn’t matter when you have guys like Evans, Godwin and Bucky Irving. New pass rusher Haason Reddick had 50 1/2 sacks from 2020 to ’23 and could spark the defense. Detroit Lions over 10.5 (+110)The Lions won 15 games last season and apparently people are nervous because Dan Campbell lost both of his coordinators and his Pro Bowl center. The last team to hit that sad trifecta … won the Super Bowl last year. Aidan Hutchinson is back from his broken leg and the Lions get a nice bump from the schedule, as they face five teams coming off “Monday Night Football” games. This is a big year for the Lions, as all the big contracts are starting to add up and the inevitable squeeze comes next offseason. The Lions know this and are not scared. Of anything. They were the only team that plays the Eagles this season that didn’t vote to ban the Tush Push. They are also the team with the fifth-best Super Bowl odds at 10-1, and I like the value. Deleting his explanations for space, here’s what he thinks of the other teams AFC Kansas City Chiefs under 11.5 (-120) Buffalo Bills over 11.5 (-175) Baltimore Ravens under 11.5 (-102) Cincinnati Bengals over 9.5 (-140) Denver Broncos over 9.5 (-110) Los Angeles Chargers under 9.5 (-110) Pittsburgh Steelers under 8.5 (-120) Miami Dolphins over 7.5 (-110) Jacksonville Jaguars over 7.5 (-125) Indianapolis Colts under 7.5 (-110) Las Vegas Raiders over 6.5 (-150) New York Jets under 5.5 (+135) Tennessee Titans under 5.5 (+125) Cleveland Browns under 4.5 (+145) NFC Philadelphia Eagles under 11.5 (-125) San Francisco 49ers over 10.5 (-102) Washington Commanders over 9.5 (-120) Los Angeles Rams under 9.5 (+125) Green Bay Packers under 9.5 (+100) Arizona Cardinals under 8.5 (+100) Chicago Bears under 8.5 (-135) Seattle Seahawks over 7.5 (-150) Atlanta Falcons under 7.5 (+120) Carolina Panthers over 6.5 (-145) New York Giants over 5.5 (+110) New Orleans Saints over 4.5 (-160) |
