The Daily Briefing Friday, July 3, 2020

AROUND THE NFL

Daily Briefing

The NFL supports our new alternative national anthem. Jason Reid of ESPN’s The Undefeated lets us know:

“Lift Ev’ry Voice And Sing,” traditionally known as the Black national anthem, is expected to be performed live or played before every Week 1 NFL game, and the league is considering a variety of other measures during the upcoming season to recognize victims of police brutality, a source familiar with the league’s discussions told The Undefeated on Thursday.

 

The song would be performed before “The Star-Spangled Banner,” the source said. The NFL’s season opener is scheduled for Sept. 10, with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Houston Texans.

 

Having recently displayed increased awareness about the problems of systemic racism, the NFL, in collaboration with the NFL Players Association, is also considering listing the names of victims on uniforms through decals on helmets or patches on jerseys. The NFL also may produce educational programs about victims, among other plans.

 

Early last month, commissioner Roger Goodell in a video admitted that the league had erred in how it handled peaceful NFL player protests of police brutality and systemic oppression. Goodell condemned racism and affirmed that Black lives matter, pledging his allegiance to the players in the battle for equal justice under the law.

 

Also in June, the league revealed plans to increase its social justice footprint by pledging to donate $250 million over a 10-year period.

 

The league hopes its efforts demonstrate “a genuine commitment to the public, players and coaches and that player voices continue to be heard,” the source wrote in a text message. “This is key to educating fans, and becoming a prominent voice in the fight to end racism.”

For those unaware of this tradition, some background from Wikipedia:

“Lift Every Voice and Sing” – – is a song written as a poem by James Weldon Johnson (1871–1938) in 1900 and set to music by his brother J. Rosamond Johnson (1873–1954) in 1905.

 

“Lift Every Voice and Sing” was publicly performed first as a poem as part of a celebration of Abraham Lincoln’s birthday by Johnson’s brother John. In 1919, the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP) dubbed it “the Negro national hymn”for its power in voicing a cry for liberation and affirmation for African-American people.

 

The song is a prayer of thanksgiving for faithfulness and freedom, with imagery evoking the biblical Exodus from slavery to the freedom of the “promised land”. “Lift Every Voice and Sing” is featured in 39 different Christian hymnals, and is sung in churches across North America.

For those who don’t remember hearing it before, you can give a listen here.

There seems to be disagreement on a word in the title.  Is it Ev’ry or Every?

NFC NORTH

 

GREEN BAY

The Packers seem to have abandoned hope that leapfree Lambeau Stadium will be near capacity.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Packers are telling fans to prepare to wear a mask if they’re able to see a game at Lambeau Field at all this season.

 

In a message from Packers President/CEO Mark Murphy, season ticket holders were told that the team is optimistic fans will be able to attend games this year, although even that’s not a sure thing.

 

“At this time, the team is preparing to have fans in attendance with new policies and safety measures to allow for appropriate social distancing, which will require the stadium’s seating capacity to be significantly reduced,” the team’s statement said. “Face coverings also will be required, and other necessary precautions will be in place. As a result, the special experience to which fans are accustomed at Lambeau Field will look and feel very different.”

 

The Packers added that their full plan for the season has not been finalized, and that season ticket holders can either opt in and continue to receive updates about the specific plans for home games, or opt out and receive a refund for 2020 now, or get credit for 2021 season tickets.

 

The last part of the Packers’ message to season ticket holders may be the most important: Everything is subject to change.

NFC EAST

 

WASHINGTON

Peter King and Mike Florio, among others, have their champagne on ice and their list of new demands ready to go.  The traditional name of Washington’s football team is hanging by a thread.

With “investors” demanding change, Nike and FedEx have put pressure on Daniel Snyder.  CNN Business:

FedEx (FDX), a major sponsor of the Washington Redskins, is asking the NFL team to change its name in response to growing pressure from investors who oppose the name’s racist connotations.

 

“We have communicated to the team in Washington our request that they change the team name,” FedEx told CNN Business in a statement.

 

The delivery services company — which sponsors and has naming rights for the stadium the Washington team plays in — released its statement after more than 80 groups and shareholders that invest in the company sent a letter to FedEx CEO Frederick Smith calling on it to “terminate its business and public relationships” with the franchise because of the name.

 

Similar letters were also sent by investors to the CEOs of Nike (NKE), which makes Redskins uniforms and equipment, and Pepsi (PEP), its snack and beverage partner. Those two companies have not responded to CNN Business requests for comment.

Want some Nike gear with the current name on it?  Or even some Nike gear with the team’s current symbols and color scheme?  Not happening.  R.P. Salio ofClutchPoints.com:

Nike has reportedly removed any and all merchandise bearing the Redskins’ name or logo from their official website. But going even further, if you check their drop down menu to click on specific teams whose merch you might want to cop, Washington is nowhere to be found.

 

Unless there’s a massive lack of stock in DC football merchandise, Nike has seemed to go the way of FedEx in that they will no longer be accepting of the racially-charged name.

Pepsi also issued a statement calling for change:

“We have been in conversations with the NFL and Washington management for a few weeks about this issue,” a PepsiCo spokesperson said. “We believe it is time for a change. We are pleased to see the steps the team announced today, and we look forward to continued partnership.”

On Friday, the team and the NFL coordinated on statements that indicate a change is on the way, but maybe time is being bought to get through 2020 and to have a new name and scheme in place when the change is made:

The Washington Redskins on Friday issued a statement saying that they will “undergo a thorough review of the team’s name” amid renewed pressure.

 

“In light of recent events around our country and feedback from our community, the Washington Redskins are announcing the team will undergo a thorough review of the team’s name. This review formalizes the initial discussions the team has been having with the league in recent weeks,” the statement said.

 

Team owner Dan Snyder has been under more pressure in recent weeks to change the name given the social climate following the death of George Floyd in Minnesota.

 

“This process allows the team to take into account not only the proud tradition and history of the franchise but also input from our alumni, the organization, sponsors, the National Football League and the local community it is proud to represent on and off the field,” Snyder said in the statement.

 

NFL commissioner Roger Goodell said in a statement Friday that the league has had “ongoing discussions” with Snyder and was “supportive of this important step.”

So, for every answer comes new questions.

When the team capitulates –

1) Can they/do they keep the distinctive burgundy and gold color scheme?  We would think yes, it’s a distinctive look and kind of classy.  But will there be those who say they can’t see the colors without flashing back and seeing that awful name.

2) Can they still honor Native-American culture with their new nickname coupled with their current logo which seems to project a positive image of that culture (see the logos history below)?  Warriors, Chiefs, Braves have all survived so far in other contexts, would they be acceptable here (obviously not Chiefs in the NFL)?  We are guessing that if Daniel Snyder were to try this, those demanding “change” would feel snookered.

3) So are there other names available that would not represent a total culture change.  Coupled with the current color scheme, can you go with Hogs, Pigskins (Skins) or Burgundy?  Or must it be a clean break, perhaps to something that honors our government culture?

4) Will the name Redskins be allowed to live in history?  Will team materials and other accounts be allowed to use the word in a historical context or will Joe Gibbs have won his three Super Bowls with just “Washington.”  Or will the new name be inserted (golf tournaments offer an analogy of backdating achievements when a new title sponsor comes on board)?

5) How soon can this be accomplished?  By the time we hear the then-familiar strains of “Lift Every Voice And Sing” in Week One, would the new name be in place with new money-making merchandise?

Making all of this more likely, is there never has been a better time for a change as the Redskins put the mediocrity of the last 15 years or so behind them with a minority coach and a minority quarterback.

A similar point from Washington area radio host Grant Paulsen:

@granthpaulsen

If the Redskins do change their name, a lot of fans will be upset. But will the majority be angry? I really don’t think so. What if the new name/ logo is cool & well received?

 

They haven’t won in 30 years. It’s not like the timing of a re-brand is bad from a football standpoint.

Here is his online poll:

Redskins fans if he were to change the name.

I want it changed                         31.5%

Wouldn’t mind a change              39.9%

Would be mad if changed            28.6%

Jared Dubin of CBSSports.com gives us an idea of which of the proposed names will fly with his media cohort:

With political and financial pressure now being applied to Snyder, perhaps he finally breaks and does indeed decide to change the team’s name. If and when that happens, there is no shortage of options available. People have been trying to come up with alternative names for some time now, so there are plenty of potential solutions to this issue for him to choose from. In the space below, we’ll run through some of the most popular suggestions, as well as some that seem logical on the surface but probably can’t happen.

 

Braves

This one is a no-go. Sure, it was the team’s original name; but if the team is being forced to change its name because of the potential racist connotations, then switching to another name that has potential racist connotations doesn’t seem like a wise idea. (The same concept applies to just changing the team name to Skins.)

 

Hogs

Naming the team after the famed offensive linemen that helped power them to three Super Bowls in the 1980s and 1990s seems like an interesting idea and there’s already a built-in affinity for the name from the fanbase, but there is also far too much potential for … different interpretations if you name a team the hogs. Can’t say I’d recommend this one. (Our own Michael Bohlin suggested the Warthogs, which was the name of Washington’s indoor soccer team, but if any variation of “Hogs” is going to win out, it’s probably the regular style, rather than the Warthogs.)

 

RedHawks

Miami (Ohio) University helpfully suggested this one, all the way back in 2014. While it would make for a smooth transition for CBS Sports Director of Programming Eric Kay, who is both a Washington fan and a Miami (Ohio) alum, it seems unlikely that the team would choose to become the second to make this exact name change. (i.e. “Redskins” to RedHawks)

 

Senators

This seems unlikely for a couple of reasons. First of all, the Senate has a disastrous approval rating, so I’m not sure anybody would want to root for the Senators. More importantly, the Washington Nationals still own the moniker “Washington Senators,” so it wouldn’t be possible even if Snyder wanted to pay tribute to the city’s original baseball team. (Unless he bought the name from Randy Lerner. But that seems even more unlikely.)

 

Americans/Generals/Other Military Name

One of the other teams in Washington is named the Capitals. Naming the team after the Senate (or the House of Representatives) seems like a horrendous idea. But it is based in our nation’s capital, so you know some people are going to suggest naming it either after the country itself, or one branch or another of the armed services. Personally, I think teams should be much more creative than this. You can name a team the Americans or Generals in any city in the country. The name should be specific to Washington in some way.

 

Bravehearts/Warriors/Renegades

Each of these names has the benefit of not changing the team’s overall aesthetic too much. They could probably keep the spear logo, which actually looks really cool on helmets, for example. (Just ditch the feather, probably.) With the Renegades, the team could also keep the “R” logo in place. They wouldn’t have to change their colors and the fight song could easily be tweaked to replace one word, and any of these options would work. This is probably the simplest route the team could go without making any drastic changes.

 

Redtails

This is the name that won a design contest several years ago, and honestly, I dig it. It’s a nod to the planes flown by the Tuskegee Airmen, an all-Black squadron of fighter and bomber pilots who fought in World War II and were the first Black military aviators in the United States Armed Forces. Three of the first five admitted Airmen were from Washington, which gives the Redtails name a specific connection to the city. The team could easily keep the colors and the “R” logo, while also transitioning from a name with potential negative connotations to one with extremely positive connotations that honors the city, the armed services, and Black Americans.

We like Renegades in concept, but doesn’t it have a history that could be problematic to some?  Let’s check:

1: a deserter from one faith, cause, or allegiance to another

2: an individual who rejects lawful or conventional behavior

We think of renegade Indians when we hear the word, a convention in Westerns to distinguish from good Indians.  But the pure definition applies more (#2) to Antifa in today’s context.

Kyle Smith of HogsHaven.com offers an analysis of the team’s history that ends up as a defense of the name.  Key points –

Founder George Preston Marshall liked and respected Native-Americans, even as he was opposed to Blacks.

“Redskins” was once a name used by Native-Americans to describe themselves, but has acquired a slur aspect to it over the years.

As another commentator put it – 90% of Native-Americans have no problem with the name, but 90% of sportswriters seem to feel they must be appalled.

His whole analysis is here, edited version below:

At the risk of putting the final, tenderizing blows on a very dead horse, I thought it was worth composing some thoughts on the current moment in time, the Washington Redskins’ associations with racism, and origin stories for the team’s moniker and logo. Many Redskins fans will be familiar with some, or all, of these details. Some will not be. Many non-Redskins’ fans won’t be familiar with any of it. This is intended as an attempt to lay it all bare, and to facilitate a discussion that can result in broader understanding.

 

To begin, and to attempt to minimize claims of bias, let me first lay out my own position: I grew up as a fan of the team, with cheering on the Redskins a key point of contact with my father. We didn’t necessarily share a lot in common, but we both loved the Redskins, and both loved watching them together (and still do). In my younger years, I actually penned a letter imploring a name change (well before it was fashionable to do so). Decades have passed, and as they often do, views have become more complicated.

 

Ultimately, I would still root for the team, even if the name changes, though I’d rather that it didn’t. I absolutely understand the terrible treatment of American Indians throughout the country’s history, and I think that we all – and particularly those profiting off American Indian images – owe that community a great deal, and should take concrete steps to improve their welfare, to honor their history, and to acknowledge that people of all ethnic backgrounds spent much of this country’s existence trying to wipe them from the face of the earth.

 

To that end, my perspective is that breaking the connection between Washington, DC’s football team and its American Indian imagery can be just one more form of cultural erasure for a group of people who should ultimately be more prominently featured in the American experience. I believe the Washington Redskins (or perhaps some other name that retains the logo) should be turned into an organization that can serve as an exemplar for how to work in coordination with, and improve the lives of the American Indian community. More thoughts on that later.

 

The Redskins Were Birthed in Racism

Let’s get this out of the way at the beginning: The Redskins franchise was brought into existence by a virulent racist who leveraged that racism for a perceived business advantage until the federal government eventually forced his hand. That racism, however, was not directed at American Indians – quite the contrary – but African Americans.

 

When George Preston Marshall was awarded an NFL franchise in Boston in 1932, the team was originally called the Braves. To avoid confusion with the Boston Braves baseball team, he changed the name to the Boston Redskins in 1933. The change allowed Marshall to keep the American Indian imagery associated with the team, and also recognized the team’s head coach, William “Lone Star” Dietz, who was purported to be of Sioux heritage. At the time, the team also had six players of American Indian descent on the roster.

 

The fact that Marshall selected the name “Redskins” for his franchise suggests he saw it as an honorific title at the time, certainly not as a slur or way to degrade American Indians.

 

Marshall moved the Redskins to Washington, DC in 1937, after winning the division title game in 1936 and failing to get the desired level of fan support from Bostonians. From 1934 to 1946, there was an implicit “gentleman’s agreement” among NFL franchises not to hire African American players. Finally, in 1946, the LA Rams hired two African American players, causing a great deal of consternation among the rest of the owners, but ultimately breaching the dam of segregation. Nevertheless, one owner held fast.

 

Sixteen years after NFL (re) integration began, Marshall remained the last owner not to integrate. This, despite the fact that his teams of that era were absolutely pathetic, likely in large part because they didn’t take full advantage of the talent pool. In 1960 and 1961, the Redskins won one game apiece. From 1946 to 1962, they had a total of 3 seasons above .500.

 

Until 1960, with the founding of the Dallas Cowboys, the Redskins were the southernmost team in the NFL, and Marshall’s racism seems to have been a good fit with the demographics of that fanbase. Versions of the Redskins’ fight song during that period included references like “Fight for Old Dixie,” where the contemporary fight song refers to “Old D.C.” Marshall actively marketed the Redskins as the “South’s team,” and seems to have believed that an all-white team was good for business, even it if wasn’t good for winning.

 

By the early 1960s though, the tides of change had arrived. In 1962, Secretary of the Interior Stewart Udall and Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy told Marshall that unless he signed an African American player, the federal government would revoke the lease on D.C. Stadium.

– – –

Faced with the potential loss of his lease, Marshall finally relented.

 

 “Redskin” Was an American Indian Creation

The gold-standard work on the etymology of “red skin” was conducted by Smithsonian Senior Linguist, Ives Goddard, in 2005. “I am a Red-skin”: Adoption of a Native American Expression (1769-1826), goes into painstaking detail exploring the first appearance of the term “redskin” in the Americas and concludes the following:

 

“The word “redskin” reflects a genuine Native American idiom that was used in several languages, where it grew out of an earlier established and more widespread use of “red” and “white” as racial labels. This terminology was developed by Native Americans to label new categories of the new ethnic and political reality that they confronted with the coming of the Europeans.”

 

In the early 1800s, the term “red-skin” was used by American Indian leaders to create a sense of “supra-tribal” identity when negotiating with the US Federal Government. It was intended to reference American Indian solidarity and unity, and to contrast these collected individuals with their “whiteskin” negotiating partners (e.g., the French, British, and former American colonists).

– – –

A descriptivist account would surely recognize that sometime in the period after “redskin” initially had positive connotations of American Indian unity and solidarity, its usage took on a much darker meaning. As the orientation of the new (white) Americans shifted from one of sympathy towards the American Indians, in the late 1700s and early 1800s, to enmity in the mid-1800s and beyond, with westward expansion, the word itself transformed:

 

The word itself was composed of the exact same letters, yet its effect was the polar opposite of its initial usage, because though it was describing the same group of people, its intent had been changed by the users.

– – –

It would be tone deaf, and oblivious to history, for white Americans, and white Redskins’ fans to fail to recognize that, for many American Indians, white people calling them “redskins” is synonymous with this country’s attempt to exterminate them. That is certainly not the way I believe most Washington Redskins’ fans use the word, but it is important recognize why some see it as malignant. However we’ve also seen that the meanings of words can (and do) change.

 

Origin of the “Redskin” Controversy

Since the 1960s, Suzan Shown Harjo, an advocate for American Indian rights, has been working to end the use of American Indian mascots and stereotypes by sports teams.

 

The Logo

For the many things the franchise has done wrong since its inception, the way it handled the design of the current logo, commissioned in 1971, under the ownership of Edward Bennett Williams, was thoughtful, respectful, and well-executed.

 

At the urging of Walter “Blackie” Wetzel, a former Blackfeet tribal chairman and National Congress of American Indians President, the team changed its logo from the burgundy and gold “R” to the American Indian head logo the team sports today. Wetzel, who died in 2003, was an activist for American Indian civil rights and believed the new logo honored American Indian people.

 

Of his grandfather, Lance Wetzel said:

 

“Grandpa saw that the “R” was not the right representation of this team and organization. He stepped up to the plate when no one else would, which was an enormous deal to give that logo a sense of respect. There was no harm, he didn’t want to offend anyone. (He just wanted) to have an actual Native American on the helmet, a man who wanted to do something like this with heart and determination.”

 

The logo itself depicts a Blackfeet Chief, John “Two Guns” White Calf, who also appeared on the Buffalo nickel.

 

Polls, Polls, Polls

In 2004, the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania fielded a poll of 768 people who identified as Indians or Native Americans. In that poll, 90 percent of respondents said that calling the Washington football team the “Redskins” didn’t bother them. Nine percent found the name offensive. Specific subgroup findings are below:

 

There was little variation among subgroups of Native Americans. Eight percent of men and 9 percent of women said the name was offensive, while 90 percent of each sex said it did not bother them.

 

In 2016, the Washington Post, which has a fairly well-established position opposing the Redskins’ name, fielded another poll asking Native Americans about the name. This poll sampled 504 people, from every state and DC and found that 70% of Native Americans didn’t feel “Redskins” was disrespectful to Indians, 80% would not be offended if a non-native called them that name, and 90% were not offended by the Redskins team name.

 

More recently, in early 2020, researchers from the University of Michigan, and University of California, Berkeley – convinced the earlier polls weren’t an accurate reflection of true, American Indian opinion – fielded their own poll of 1,019 Native American participants. Their findings were significantly more mixed than the earlier polls, with 49% of their respondents “offended” by the Redskins name, 13% indifferent, and 38% not offended. They also found that those with stronger senses of Native American identity were more likely to be opposed to the name and the use of Native American mascots.

 

Alternative Models

The Kansas City Chiefs, Atlanta Braves, Cleveland Indians, and Florida State Seminoles. One of these things is not like the others. Unlike most instances of professional and college sports’ teams using American Indian imagery to represent their teams, Florida State University has unique, deep bond with the tribe whose name the school shares:

 

For almost 70 years, Florida State has worked closely, side by side, with the Seminole Tribe of Florida. The relationship, built on respect, is so mutually supportive that in 2005 the tribe — which rarely puts such things in writing — took an unprecedented, historic step with a public declaration of support. The Seminole Tribe invited the university president at that time, T.K. Wetherell, to Big Cypress Reservation to receive a written resolution from the Tribal Council affirming its enthusiastic support for the university’s use of the Seminole name, logos and images. Subsequently, Chief Jerry Haney of the Seminole Tribe of Oklahoma also publicly stated his support.

 

As part of the relationship, FSU has an ongoing set of cultural engagement activities with the Seminole tribe, including a scholarship program for students coming from reservations, an explicit mention that the team does not “have a mascot,” as well as courses focused on Seminole history and traditions.

 

This sort of partnership, built on mutual respect, honoring – and promoting – the traditions of the represented party, and contributing to their cultural and social success, is an ideal model for teams to adopt in an environment where simply profiting off the imagery of American Indians without their engagement and benefit is no longer desirable or acceptable.

 

One Path Forward

Engagement on the subject of the Redskins’ team name and its associated imagery requires a recognition of where concerns about them come from as well as the franchise’s legitimately checkered racial history. Recent steps to de-emphasize former owner George Preston Marshall, and to elevate team heroes, like Bobby Mitchell, are a step in the right direction, but it seems clear that they alone will not be sufficiently robust to tamp down objections to the team’s name.

 

Some (on both sides of the issue) would argue that the best outcome is for the team to divest itself from its American Indian association altogether. I disagree, as that simply results in one less opportunity for awareness building and American Indian community benefit.

 

“It will erase us,” Robert Doore [Blackfeet business owner] said. “It will erase us from history. It will erase us like we never happened. Let’s never forget the past because that’s what defines us. But if we dwell in the past and worry about a newspaper clipping that’s over 100 years old, then we’re going to die in the past.”

 

“We have an opportunity here with this Redskins discussion to educate America,” Doore added. “Why not use the massive platform of the Washington Redskins to reach millions of Americans? Let’s start fighting for something that matters. Let’s attack something like housing. Let’s attack alcoholism. I’ll fight tooth-and-nail if we can, but changing a football team name will do nothing for us.”

 

If Daniel Snyder is adamantly opposed to changing the name, as he has articulated in the past, then he should adopt a tone of conciliation and engagement with representatives of the American Indian community to strike a path forward. In the same way the word “redskin” shifted from a term of pride to one of vilification, I believe there is an opportunity to yet again shift its meaning. The Washington Redskins, in concert with the American Indian community, can help reclaim a term that was once one of unity and solidarity in the face of some of the most dramatic division that we have witnessed in a generation.

Here is a poll of his readers (who we presume are mainly fans of the team):

Change the name and the logo          27%

Change the name, keep the logo       24%

Change the logo, keep the name         2%

Keep the name and the logo              48%

So 51% for changing Redskins, but 74% for keeping Native-American imagery.

AFC EAST

 

NEW YORK JETS

It’s funny how some players are quickly labeled busts while others are given a little more time.  So far, QB SAM DARNOLD has been in the latter category (and we’re not saying that’s wrong).    Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com, though, thinks the Jets should be worried.  As always with Barnwell, we have tried to make judicious edits:

 

If you were crafting a quarterback prospect from scratch, you would likely end up with something close to Sam Darnold. The New York Jets quarterback has prototypical size and arm strength. He is tough and an above-average athlete. He anticipates windows coming open and makes accurate passes to give his receivers opportunities to run after the catch. He makes the sort of unstoppable, breathtaking throws that only a few human beings on the planet can make.

 

Darnold just doesn’t make them often enough to push the Jets toward success — so far. Watch him play and you see brilliance interspersed with disappointment. There are stretches in which he looks like a 10-year veteran, easily spraying the ball around the field on time as he finds open receivers. There also are plays, possessions and even games in which he looks worse than your typical young quarterback. It’s tough to guess what’s coming next when you follow one of your best starts as a pro with arguably the worst start in Jets history.

 

Why Jets’ Sam Darnold must be catalyst for revamped offense

Evaluating Darnold after two seasons requires an elaborate system of caveats and justifications. Everyone is going to weigh those differently. How do you account for him suffering from mononucleosis? What have the Jets done to surround him with talent? Do you treat the second half of 2019 — when he threw 13 touchdown passes against four picks and posted a passer rating of 93.5 — as his true talent level and a launching point for 2020? Or do you look at that schedule, see six consecutive starts against teams that finished in the bottom quartile of pass defense DVOA this past season, and worry about what Darnold is going to do when five of his first nine starts in 2020 come against top-six pass defenses?

 

Let’s take a look at what we can say about Darnold after his 2019 season. Will he take the next step and deliver on the promise that led the Jets to move up and draft him with the third overall pick? Or will the Darnold Hive suffer from colony collapse disorder?

 

Darnold’s numbers so far

Overall, Darnold was a below-average quarterback last season. When you take a look at the 26 quarterbacks who threw at least 400 passes, he ranked 21st or worse in QBR (22nd), passer rating (21st), adjusted net yards per attempt (21st) and off-target percentage (21st). The guys below him in those categories were either struggling young quarterbacks such as Mayfield, Gardner Minshew and Daniel Jones and/or passers who lost their jobs such as Andy Dalton, Mitchell Trubisky and Kyle Allen.

 

Of course, we have to ask all kinds of questions about the context under which Darnold played. Let’s start with the second-half split I mentioned. You can make a reasonable case that we should just throw his first half out of the window, since he didn’t look like his usual self in a heartbreaking Week 1 loss to the Bills. It seems likely that he was already struggling with mono, which then cost him the next four games.

 

I would find some middle ground here. It’s fair to discount Darnold’s performances from earlier in the season when evaluating his future, in part because we don’t have any sort of meaningful sample of how professional quarterbacks decline when they deal with mono. (To be clear, I hope this doesn’t change.)

– – –

Darnold’s injuries through two years are concerning. The mono was a freak incident, but in addition to the toe and thumb ailments he played through, he missed three games in 2018 with a foot injury. Those injuries could end up fading quickly into his past, like they did for Matthew Stafford, who missed 19 games across his first two seasons and then didn’t miss another one for the next 8½ years. The injuries also could continue to be a problem in keeping Darnold from growing further.

 

Of course, the best way for the Jets to keep him healthy would be to keep the pass rush off their young quarterback. That has been a problem. Darnold was the second-most pressured quarterback out of those 26 regulars last season, in a group alongside passers such as Deshaun Watson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Russell Wilson, Jones and Allen. Those are all quarterbacks who use their feet to extend plays, creating pressures in the process. The good news is that Darnold was contacted on only 10.5% of his snaps, which ranked 10th in the NFL.

 

Darnold fans would likely note that the Jets haven’t had much of an offensive line over the past two seasons, which is a sentiment shared by general manager Joe Douglas.

 

In taking a closer look, though, you can’t just chalk up the pressure problems to the line and assume investing in new guys up front will totally solve the problem. Darnold also figures in the blame here. By ESPN’s pass block win rate (PBWR) statistic, the Jets ranked 21st in the league once he returned from his bout with mono. PBWR measures how effective a line is at blocking opposing pass-rushers for 2.5 seconds, which is typically enough time for a quarterback to get out the football. After that, it’s fair to assign more of the blame for not getting the ball out to the quarterback, his receivers and the offensive coordinator. (The Jets’ PBWR also improved dramatically while Darnold was out of the lineup.)

 

Darnold was inconsistent in terms of getting the ball out on time. Occasionally, that could be a positive, as he would be patient in working both sides of the field before working back to an open receiver. More often than not, though, he would get stuck trying to work a route combination, wait for it to get open and then either take a hit or be forced into throwing the ball away.

 

This really came up in the red zone, where Darnold’s decision-making just wasn’t acceptable.

 

While the problems were particularly acute inside the 20, Darnold’s decision-making overall is still inconsistent. His interception rate improved from 3.6% as a rookie to 2.9% last season, but by Football Outsiders’ adjusted interception rate, Darnold still posted the league’s ninth-worst adjusted INT rate.

 

The decision-making problems manifest in ways beyond interceptions. He is still prone to trying to get the ball out at the last second under pressure, leading to wayward passes with no hope of being completed.

 

Naturally, with better receivers or better pass concepts, Darnold might be right to wait for those big plays to develop downfield. Let’s talk through what he has around him.

 

The Jets haven’t helped him. Is this season different?

Darnold didn’t get much from his weapons in 2019, in part because they weren’t on the field. Quincy Enunwa and Chris Herndon, who were expected to start at wide receiver and tight end, combined to play just 83 offensive snaps.

 

Douglas overhauled the receiving corps during the offseason. Anderson left for Carolina in free agency, while Enunwa’s professional future is in question while he recovers from a neck injury. The Jets will replace them with Bucs burner Breshad Perriman and second-round pick Denzel Mims. Perriman looms as a particularly high-upside option, given that the former first-round pick finished the season with 506 receiving yards and five touchdowns over his final five games. Darnold had the fourth-worst passer rating and the worst QBR of any starter in the league last season on deep passes, so Perriman could offer him a boost there.

 

Overall, while there’s some upside in this group if Herndon lives up to what was relatively massive pre-2019 hype, this isn’t one of the better receiving corps in the league. I don’t blame Douglas for choosing to use his first-round pick on Becton as opposed to one of the many wideouts in this class, and there wasn’t a lot available in free agency, but the Jets have had three offseasons to try to surround Darnold with talent and haven’t done enough. It’s tough to see the offer the Cardinals made for DeAndre Hopkins and think that the Jets shouldn’t have topped it.

 

The other question is whether Darnold has a coaching staff who can help push him to the next level. The team fired Todd Bowles and his staff after Darnold’s rookie season, and when they failed to come to an agreement at the last minute with Matt Rhule over choosing an offensive coordinator, the Jets’ Plan B was to hire Adam Gase. The former Broncos offensive coordinator’s star had faded after leading the Dolphins to the playoffs in 2016, his first season at the helm, but the Jets hired Gase with the hopes of getting the most out of Darnold and their developing offense.

 

Essentially, Gase was excellent when the Broncos were running Peyton Manning’s Colts offense for two years, pretty good with Jay Cutler in a lone season with the Bears and in his first season with Ryan Tannehill in Miami, and then disastrous since then.

 

There’s evidence that Gase both helps and hurt Darnold. To start with the positive, Gase’s early game planning has generally been a positive

 

Unlike some coaches with subpar receiving corps, the Jets consistently try to find ways to free up receivers with picks. Gase also has a habit of setting up a concept early in the game before trying to take a shot with something off that concept later in the contest, which makes sense, although Darnold didn’t always pay those opportunities off. In one December game, Gase dialed up a screen-and-go at exactly the right time, only for Darnold’s throw to take his receiver out of bounds.

 

On the other hand, though, there was invariably at least one or two plays per game for the Jets where I was either sure the receiver had run the wrong route or Gase was trying to get Darnold to throw an interception.

 

That wasn’t all. It was one thing when I saw two Jets receivers nearly run into each other downfield while they were running post and go routes together early in the season. It’s another when they did the same thing on the same concept again in December!

 

Gase also had some concepts that just seemed like they had been drafted out of a different universe for a better offense.

 

I also found that Gase really didn’t give Darnold much help or have many answers when things went really wrong for the young quarterback. There was one game where this really manifested itself …

 

Darnold’s low point: ‘Seeing ghosts’

It was a weird season for the Jets, but the lowest moment was likely their 33-0 loss to the Patriots on Monday Night Football. Darnold finished 11-of-32 passing for 86 yards with four picks and a strip sack and admitted during the contest that he was “seeing ghosts.” It was a rare moment of honesty from a struggling player in the middle of a game, which meant that it was immediately met by controversy and criticism from all sides.

 

The Patriots tormented Darnold with what’s known as “sim pressures” or “creepers.” The goal with sim pressures is to crowd the line of scrimmage with possible blitzers and then send the four best-positioned rushers while still dropping a full set of seven defenders back into coverage. One example would be to load up both sides of the line with potential blitzers and then send pressure on one side while dropping the other side into coverage, wasting the offensive linemen on one side and overloading the pressure on the other side.

 

 

As bad as the numbers were, Darnold’s performance as the game went on was worse. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a quarterback as shook as he was during one stretch in the third quarter.

 

The Patriots made a lot of quarterbacks look bad last season, but it was telling that they were able to dominate really with this one pass-rush concept throughout the game and neither Gase nor Darnold had a solution. Those same pressures gave him trouble as the year went along.

 

Is it already time to give up?

While we’ve talked about the ways in which Darnold hasn’t gotten much help from the Jets, let’s think about this in the big picture. Is it possible that two years of subpar numbers is enough to know that Darnold isn’t going to be a long-term solution?

 

Pro Football Reference tracks nine index statistics for quarterbacks, adjusting stats such as completion percentage, yards per attempt, sack rate and interception rate for each year’s league average. Darnold has ranked below-average in each of the nine statistics in his first two seasons. Since 1990, there have been only three quarterbacks who got 200 pass attempts in each of their first two seasons and managed to pull that off: Darnold, Ryan Leaf and Geno Smith. Not a great start.

 

Let’s approach it a different way. As you might suspect, his cumulative statistics over two years also rate as below average across those nine index metrics. If we look at the quarterbacks who have been below average by all nine measures while throwing 600 pass attempts over their first two seasons combined, you get a list that includes Darnold, Smith, Josh Allen, Brandon Weeden, Blake Bortles, Christian Ponder and Derek Carr. More optimistically, it also includes Tannehill, Alex Smith and Troy Aikman.

 

Pro Football Focus data analyst Kevin Cole’s Bayesian study of quarterback play also didn’t feel good about Darnold’s chances of improving to the point where he would be a starting-caliber quarterback. Darnold’s comps through two years include passers such as Geno Smith, Bortles, Ponder and another former Jets starter in Mark Sanchez. The team is unquestionably hoping for more than that from Darnold, even after two inconsistent seasons.

 

One factor that might play on Darnold’s side is that he came into the league extremely young. He was just 20 when the Jets selected him in April 2018, and he just turned 23 last month. For context, he is six months younger than Joe Burrow, who was the first overall pick in the 2020 draft, two years after Darnold came off the board.

 

By the numbers, the odds are stacked against him after two seasons. Considering his age, the mono and the mediocrity surrounding him, I’m inclined to think Darnold’s chances of turning into an above-average starter are a little better than they might seem in a vacuum. But …

 

Darnold’s last chance in 2020?

… the problem is that Darnold isn’t developing in a vacuum. He’s entering a crucial year in 2020, and if the Jets don’t see development out of their starter, he might not get a fourth chance to impress. Both the coach and general manager who drafted Darnold, remember, are out of the organization. Douglas isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, but after a bizarre 2019 campaign, it wouldn’t be shocking if the Jets moved on from Gase if the team struggles again. A new coach might want to start fresh with a new quarterback.

 

My concern is that Darnold might only be as good as the people around him, and his development could depend more on players such as Becton, Mims and Perriman becoming instant contributors. Darnold can play a role in making them better, but he hasn’t been able to do that with the likes of Anderson or Bell. It’s also fair to question whether Gase is truly effective at developing young quarterbacks, given that all of his work as a pro before Darnold has really been with veterans, outside of serving as Tim Tebow’s quarterbacks coach.

 

Compare that to the Browns, who went out of their way to add talent for Mayfield over the past two years. During the brief moments when they’ve each been at their respective zenith as pros, Darnold has looked better than Mayfield, the one quarterback who was chosen ahead of him in 2018. Given their respective supporting casts, though, Mayfield has a better chance of producing above-average efficiency in 2020 than Darnold.

 

For Darnold to break through in 2020, he needs something to really go his way. He needs that brutal schedule to lighten up thanks to injuries, or for Bell to have a big year as a runner. He needs one of Perriman, Mims or Herndon to emerge as a star target. There’s still upside in Darnold’s profile, and at his best, he still looks like that prototypical quarterback prospect. I just don’t think he’s going to be able to deliver on his own.

 

THIS AND THAT

 

COPING WITH CORONA

Ride in an Uber with everyone wearing masks?  Visit a restaurant and maintain social distance with your masked waiter?  An NFL player could get fined this fall per this proposal.  Curtis Crabtree of ProFootballTalk.com:

As the NFL tries to find a way to successfully execute its 2020 season, the NFL Players’ Association held a conference call on Thursday for its player representatives to discuss concerns about the upcoming season.

 

According to Dan Graziano of ESPN.com, one of the points discussed on the call was that players could be fined for conduct detrimental for engaging in “reckless” behavior. Some of the examples by Graziano were eating out at restaurants or getting rides in Ubers.

 

Football will not be in a post-coronavirus world when the season gets set to begin in September. The challenge for the league, its teams and the players will be to mitigate the risks involved as much as possible. While it’s unlikely to expect hundreds of young athletes to purely commute from home and to work every day with no other outside interactions, the need to minimize exposure will be a big part of getting the football season successfully played.

 

Conduct detrimental is usually a fairly high standard for penalties to be used. Exactly where the threshold would be to consider a line to have been crossed to warrant a fine is uncertain. But it’s going to be very high importance for players to be reasonable about what they do outside of the building.