AROUND THE NFL
Daily Briefing
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Should teams be publicly identifying/shaming the unvaccinated? Mike Florio ofProFootballTalk.com says yes, NFLPA president JC Tretter says no:
Browns center and NFL Players Association president JC Tretter previously has written about his concerns regarding the practice of some teams to use wristbands on the practice field to distinguish vaccinated from unvaccinated players. On Thursday, Tretter spoke about it.
“It’s just kind of a nonsensical idea,” Tretter told reporters, via Nate Ulrich of the Akron Beacon Journal. “They say they need a differentiator between unvaccinated and vaccinated players. We already have a differentiator. The unvaccinated players need to wear masks. No other sports leagues use any sort of scarlet marking or helmet decal or wristband because they know it’s not necessary and the teams know who’s vaccinated and not vaccinated. . . .
“So what it really comes down to is the NFL wanted to put a policy in place to try to shame unvaccinated players publicly about their status and make that known to everybody on the field, and that shouldn’t be the case because it’s unnecessary. We all know who’s vaccinated, who’s not and it doesn’t need to be a scarlet marking on peoples’ helmets or wrists.”
The Browns aren’t doing it. Coach Kevin Stefanski explained the reasoning for it on Thursday.
“It’s on our lanyards when you’re in the building,” Stefanski said, via Ulrich. “As you know, we’re not dividing the team over this issue. And I’ve been pretty clear with the team.”
“The Browns don’t need it,” Tretter added. “Again, we all know who is and who isn’t [vaccinated], so it’s not really needed. And I don’t know why some teams are doing it, and I think players should ask their teams why they’re doing it because, again, I think it’s unnecessary.”
Some teams are doing it because the NFL deferred the issue to the teams, and because some teams think that this one extra bit of distinction will persuade unvaccinated players to get vaccinated.
At the beginning of training camp, would “everyone know”? A QB might know the status of everyone in his position room, but the free agent rookie safety’s status?
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NFC NORTH
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GREEN BAY
QB AARON RODGERS has a re-structured contract. Mike Florio ofProFootballTalk.com:
As it turns out, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers got only one concession for showing up or training camp.
PFT has confirmed via multiple sources, as initially reported by Tom Pelissero of NFL Media, that the Packers did not waive the ability to recover $11.5 million in signing bonus money previously paid to Rodgers, if he holds out or retires in 2022.
Multiple reports, beginning with Adam Schefter of ESPN, indicated that the Packers had given up the ability to go after the money. They haven’t. Which means that the Packers technically have the power to squeeze Rodgers if they decide not to trade him in 2022 and if he decides not to show up.
It’s unclear why multiple reports emerged suggesting that the Packers had waived that right. Although there’s some confusion as to whether the Packers could have waived their ability to collect the money, it’s likely that they could. It doesn’t matter because they didn’t.
That said, one source with knowledge of the situation told PFT that the Packers have verbally promised not to seek the $11.5 million if he holds out or retires in 2022. Again, verbal promises often aren’t worth the paper they’re not printed on.
And so Rodgers, after everything that happened in the past three months, technically got only one thing for returning — the elimination of the 2023 season. (The timing of the void also prevents them from tagging him in 2023, if it gets to that point. So he arguably got two thing.)
The fact that the Packers didn’t formally waive their ability to pursue $11.5 million in previously paid (but technically not-yet-earned bonus money) makes it just a little more likely that they’ll get to that point than if they’d waived that power. Still, Rodgers and his camp currently believe that, if he chooses to take a stand in 2022, he won’t have to worry about the $11.5 million.
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NFC EAST
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DALLAS
The Cowboys will rest the sore shoulder of QB DAK PRESCOTT. Todd Archer ofESPN.com:
Dallas Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy said Dak Prescott will not throw for a “few days” as the quarterback works through a latissimus injury that ended his Wednesday practice early.
“It’s good you catch a fatigue injury early,” McCarthy said. “I think it’s more staying in front of what he has.”
An MRI showed Prescott is dealing with a shoulder strain, but he said in a statement released by the club on Wednesday he didn’t “see it as any kind of serious setback.” Prescott will go through all the drills and the walk-through as he rehabs not only this strain but his right ankle. Garrett Gilbert will get the bulk of the first-team quarterback work, but McCarthy said Ben DiNucci and Cooper Rush will also get some reps as well.
McCarthy and executive vice president Stephen Jones did not say Prescott threw too much leading into camp. In the first four practices, he threw 78 passes in 11-on-11 drills, to go along with the individual and other situational work.
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NEW YORK GIANTS
As he starts his 3rd season, the jury is still out on QB DANIEL JONES. Judy Bautista ofNFL.com on a pivotal year:
To give some context to Daniel Jones’ prove-it season, consider a peer who, like Jones, arrived with great expectations only to turn in some middling early results.
Before Josh Allen became a Paul Bunyanesque folk hero in Buffalo last season, he, too, was a question mark, possessed of a 75-yards-in-the-air arm, not much touch and an uncertain future. In his first two seasons, his completion rate was an unsightly 56.3 percent, six percentage points lower than Jones’ in his first two seasons. Allen averaged just 184.4 passing yards per game, 37 yards fewer per game than Jones. Most tellingly, Jones’ touchdown-to-interception ratio is 35:22, compared to Allen’s 30:21.
Allen, of course, made a big leap into the top tier of NFL quarterbacks last season — his third in the league. He got the right coaching, had a new explosive weapon in Stefon Diggs and became the QB the Bills projected he could be, improving his completion percentage by 10 points over his second season and passing for 37 touchdowns. The Bills followed him into the AFC Championship Game.
There is no reason Jones can’t match Allen’s ascension.
The Giants still seem like a work in progress, not a conference championship contender. But after going 5-3 in the second half of last season, they could make a push for a playoff spot again.
Even that, though, should feel like a bonus this year.
The goal for the Giants this season is a more modest but ultimately critical one: They have to emerge from 2021 knowing whether or not Jones is their long-term quarterback. Teams have more of a wandering eye than ever and move more quickly away from even the most highly drafted but underachieving choices (see: the Philadelphia Eagles, New York Jets and Los Angeles Rams this offseason alone).
With a new coach and the second overall pick, the Jets sent Sam Darnold packing to cast their lot with Zach Wilson. The Giants’ circumstances are different. Barring a disaster, there won’t be a coaching change. After mishits with Ben McAdoo and Pat Shurmur, the Giants believe they got it right with Joe Judge, who has given the Giants an identity as a team that will be well-conditioned and physically tough, despite the doubts of the recently released Kelvin Benjamin. In fact, when asked on Thursday about how Jones and receiver Kenny Golladay looked when working together, Judge quickly transitioned to praising his players for their fitness.
“The first thing that stuck out was the players and the condition they were in,” he said. “Our guys really moved around well yesterday. They responded to the training regimens and a much different look than we had last year, to be honest with you. Last year, day one, we had a lot of guys that were further behind physically than they are right now.”
That said, if the Giants are bad enough to wind up with the second overall pick in 2022, a quarterback decision would be only one of many high-profile ones.
Jones can make this easy on the Giants by taking advantage of the pieces that have been put in place, reducing his turnovers (a league-high 39 since 2019) and making the third-year jump of which the Giants believe he is capable.
“I think at this level and in this job, we’re all expected to perform and play at a high level every day, and that starts today,” Jones told reporters earlier this week as the Giants reported for camp. “I certainly feel that. I think everyone on the team does and I think that’s healthy, I think that’s the way it should be, and I know we’re excited for the opportunity.”
T NATE SOLDER’s opt-out last year was about more than COVID. Now, he is back with the Giants. David Lazar in the New York Post:
Giants offensive lineman Nate Solder is entering his age-33 season. But no play, game or season is more important to him than his family.
Last year, Solder opted out to be present for his wife Lexi, daughter Charlie and sons Hudson and Emerson. Hudson has been undergoing treatment for kidney cancer since he was an infant.
“I’ll say this. I had the opportunity to sacrifice my career for something far greater and I will never question that or regret it,” Solder said Wednesday after practice. “All of us in the NFL are trying to be the best we can be, trying to be a part of a good team, trying to make money.
“But I learned it all comes secondary to having a strong, healthy family. My family needs me more than anything. The New York Giants are going to have a left tackle. They are going to have someone in my position. But my family needs me as dad, as husband, so that is my first, primary, critical role.”
At one point during the COVID-19 pandemic, Emerson was born, Hudson was going through chemotherapy and Charlie was getting her tonsils out. Solder — a testicular cancer survivor himself — said he had no complaints about his busy life, but noted the last year has been “a tough time.”
Nonetheless, things are improving for the two-time nominee for the Walter Payton NFL Man of the Year Award and his family. Hudson’s hair is growing back and doctors are monitoring his tumors with routine scans every three months. And on the field, Solder is excited for the challenge that lies ahead.
When the Giants made Solder the league’s highest-paid offensive lineman in 2018, they envisioned he would be their left tackle of the future. However, Solder, who had his deal reworked this offseason, could now be moving to the right side this year after the emergence of 2020 fourth-overall pick Andrew Thomas.
“I think they have structured it so they have some young guys who have a lot of potential and me with experience,” Solder said. “I am totally open to whatever the team needs.”
There have been challenges — Solder noted he is still adapting to new “play calling, names of plays, names of our run blocks and pass blocks and techniques” — but like he has done throughout his life, Solder is ready to overcome them.
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WASHINGTON
Most of us thought veteran QB RYAN FITZPATRICK was a shoo-in to be the WFT starter, but Coach Ron Rivera has other ideas. Nicki Jhabvala of the Washington Post:
@NickiJhabvala
Ron Rivera said Ryan Fitzpatrick and Taylor Heinicke are competing for the starting QB job, and Kyle Allen will have a chance to join the competition when he recovers more from his ankle injury.
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NFC WEST
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SAN FRANCISCO
The 49ers are looking forward to having EDGE NICK BOSA back and in good health. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:
The 49ers played without defensive end Nick Bosa for almost all of the 2020 season, which was a serious blow for their defensive hopes last year.
While the timing of the injury was bad on that front, it should leave their defense in a good position to open this season. Bosa avoided the physically unable to perform list at the start of training camp and said on Thursday that he’s on track to be in the lineup against the Lions in the season opener.
“I looked at the schedule but I knew when it was an early injury, I for the most part would be ready to go for Week 1 and everything now is trending toward that,” Bosa said, via Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury News. “I’m hoping to ramp it up toward that and give it all I’ve got Week 1.”
Bosa said the injury was “really rough” on him mentally, but that he has improved in that space as his body recovered. Assuming that process continues over the next few weeks, the 49ers should be in good shape on their defensive front come Week 1.
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AFC SOUTH
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INDIANAPOLIS
Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com has been counting up with 32 preseason previews. He’s up to #5 – and it is the Colts, ahead of the Browns, Seahawks and Packers among others:
Indianapolis Colts coach Frank Reich didn’t like hearing a question about Carson Wentz that suggested his new quarterback was “broken.”
“I just cringe when I hear stuff like that, not that a player shouldn’t be accountable for poor play on the field,” Reich said. “Carson has to answer to that, and he has answered to it. And until you get out there and prove otherwise, that’s what you live with. But I just know that playing the position of quarterback, there are so many factors that go into it. We talked about why the poor play last year. I’m just very confident that he has a team around him. It’s just I think the culture fit.”
That might be the most measured take you’ll find regarding Wentz. It shines a light on why Reich is the perfect coach to fix Wentz. And why the Colts made a shrewd move to grab Wentz on a discount after a bad season.
Wentz was awful in 2020. Every single way a quarterback can be bad, Wentz checked the box. He threw ridiculous interceptions, fumbled too much, took too many sacks, he didn’t make many big plays, his leadership was questioned and a story that he would change plays at the line for “apparently no other reason than his personal distaste” toward former coach Doug Pederson painted him in the worst light. Nobody can argue that Wentz was anything but terrible in 2020.
But context matters. The Eagles became a mess after winning a Super Bowl. Pederson was a bad coach after that, and if you want to blame a dysfunctional organization for that, it’s OK, but it doesn’t change that he couldn’t get much out of Wentz. Wentz seemed to be affected by the team drafting Jalen Hurts in the second round last season, something we’ve seen with other quarterbacks. The team around Wentz fell apart. Injuries played a factor, as did some bad draft picks. That’s why Wentz was often running for his life, sometimes with Greg Ward Jr. as his top receiver. It would be hard for any quarterback to thrive with the 2018-20 Eagles.
Too often we give too much blame or credit to a quarterback without considering the infrastructure around him. There are a handful of quarterbacks who are able to succeed despite bad coaching or a crumbling roster. Wentz, despite the highs he showed in 2017 before a torn ACL, is not one of those players. Philadelphia needed him to be that player the past few years. Indianapolis doesn’t.
Wentz comes to a team that might have won a championship already if Andrew Luck didn’t retire. The Colts have a fantastic offensive line and running back Jonathan Taylor proved to be a great fit down the stretch last season when he was a rookie. The defense was a top-10 unit last season. The coaching staff is fantastic and so is the front office. Wentz tried to do it all the past few seasons, because who else on the Eagles was going to help? The Colts just need him to be good enough around a great team.
Wentz is probably never going to be an MVP candidate again, like he was in 2017. A lot of things came together that season, and he was playing at an unsustainable level. But he might not be as bad as 2020 would indicate either. In 2018 and 2019, in a bad situation, Wentz had some great moments. Overall, he was about average. He ranked 13th and 14th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA and DYAR in 2018, and 20th and 17th in those categories in 2019. He ranked No. 14 among 39 qualified quarterbacks in Pro Football Focus’ grades in 2018 and had the same ranking in 2019. He wasn’t great. The Colts don’t need him to be great.
Reich will help. There’s a respect between the two that — right or wrong — Wentz didn’t have with Pederson by the end. Reich was Wentz’s offensive coordinator during that great 2017 season. They have a connection. There won’t be any more changed plays at the line out of spite.
“We’ve said this a lot of times, there is a personal aspect to coaching a player, it’s not just in a vacuum,” Reich said, via 107.5 The Fan. “There is a personal element to it. Anytime there is a personal connection with a player and there is a familiarity with the offense and the terminology and what you are trying to accomplish and the vision for what you’re trying to do, it can help accelerate it.”
Maybe Wentz is broken (sorry, Frank). Bad habits develop playing in horrible situations and they can be become permanent. The stories of Wentz changing plays and being a less-than-ideal teammate could be red flags that Indianapolis is ignoring in the chase of an elusive answer at quarterback. It’s also true that if Wentz can’t turn things around to be at least average in Indianapolis, it won’t happen anywhere else.
If Wentz, in his best situation since 2017, can return to even average or slightly above average levels, the Colts can be one of the AFC’s best teams. Everything around the quarterback position is in place. The last time that was the case for Wentz, he was the MVP frontrunner. His team ended up winning a Super Bowl.
OFFSEASON GRADE
Trading a 2021 third-round draft pick and conditional 2022 second-round pick to the Eagles for quarterback Carson Wentz was a worthwhile gamble, hoping Wentz responds to a better setting. Wentz has many prime years left if the Colts do turn him around. The one issue the Colts have that might not have been properly addressed is left tackle. Anthony Castonzo retired. The Colts, who don’t often overspend even when they have cap space, settled for former Kansas City Chiefs left tackle Eric Fisher on a one-year deal. Fisher is coming off a torn Achilles and might not be ready for the start of the season. Defensive lineman Denico Autry moved on to Tennessee, and it was tough to lose him to a division rival. The Colts took some fliers on under-the-radar free agents, and none of them is expected to have a big impact. The draft was not exciting either, with defensive ends Kwity Paye and Dayo Odeyingbo as the first- and second-round selections. It’s mostly the same roster aside from swapping retired Philip Rivers for Wentz.
Grade: C-
QUARTERBACK REPORT
There were times last season that Philip Rivers looked finished. By the end he was a perfectly reasonable, above average quarterback. Having a great offensive line and running game around him helped. Nobody would say Rivers was a top-10 quarterback last season, yet the Colts offense ranked 12th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA, the team went 11-5 and almost pulled off a road playoff win against a very good Buffalo Bills team. Then Rivers decided to retire. The Colts are hoping that a 28-year-old Carson Wentz, once thought of as an elite quarterback, can at least play as well as Rivers. That’s not unreasonable.
BETTING BREAKDOWN-
I’m well aware I’ll be much higher on the Colts than any other power ranking, and I’m fine with that. It should be no surprise that I’ll be taking all the positive Colts future bets at BetMGM: Over 9.5 wins, win AFC South (+105), win AFC (+1600), win Super Bowl (+3000). And perhaps my favorite bet among them: Frank Reich to win Coach of the Year at +1800.
FANTASY TAKE
From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “T.Y. Hilton is the name you know in the Colts passing game, but he’s also entering his age-32 season. If you’re going to throw a chip on any receiver here, better to spend it on second-year wideout Michael Pittman Jr.
“Pittman’s rookie year was mostly a bust, with just one touchdown in 13 games. But a calf problem cost him three weeks, and he struggled to pick up the pro game in the first half of the year. He did collect 90 yards in the playoff loss at Buffalo, and he had a snappy 7-101 game earlier against Tennessee.
“The Colts took Pittman with the 34th overall pick in the 2020 Draft, and he has a fine pedigree — he was a star at USC, and is the son of a former NFL running back. The development curve is different for everyone, and perhaps Pittman will be the receiver who clicks quickest with new quarterback Carson Wentz. Pittman is a fine post-hype sleeper to consider.”
STAT TO REMEMBER
Here are the key defensive stats in which the Colts ranked in the top 10 last season: points, yards, first downs, rushing yards, rushing yards per attempt, yards per drive, points per drive. The Colts have two superstars in linebacker Darius Leonard and defensive lineman DeForest Buckner and many good players around them. It’s a defense that’s well coached by coordinator Matt Eberflus. Defensive performance is often not predictable year to year, but there’s no reason to believe the Colts can’t again be a top-10 defense.
BURNING QUESTION
Can Michael Pittman Jr. have a breakout?
The Colts don’t have many flaws, but their receiver group isn’t great. T.Y. Hilton is in decline, Parris Campbell can’t stay healthy and the tight end duo of Mo Alie-Cox and Jack Doyle is fine but not scaring anyone. The difference could be Pittman. A second-round pick last season, Pittman had some bad injury luck, including calf surgery in September. He ended up playing 13 games with 40 catches for 503 yards, which wasn’t too bad given the challenges of his rookie season. Pittman is a big target who was a favorite of many experts heading into the draft, and there were many good receivers to come out of last year’s class. Pittman might have had a bigger impact if not for injuries. He could take a big leap in his second season.
BEST CASE SCENARIO
If we’re really dreaming, is it possible that Carson Wentz finds his 2017 form? Wentz has been in a miserable situation since then. It’s very unlikely he returns to an MVP form, but there’s a non-zero chance that by December we are reminded that Wentz is a really good player with the right supporting cast. It’s not like we haven’t seen him play at an elite level before. It’s very rare for a bad quarterback to play as well as Wentz did in 2017. The whole theme of this preview is that the Colts just need Wentz to be a solid, above-average quarterback. What if he’s more than that? The Colts would look like geniuses and be in Super Bowl contention.
NIGHTMARE SCENARIO
Maybe the Colts are chasing a 4-year-old ghost that will never return. Nothing in Carson Wentz’s resume matches up with what he did in 2017. There are some viable excuses for that, but it doesn’t mean Wentz will ever been good or even average again. He was downright horrible in 2020 and if that is his new level, the Colts are in trouble. Even well-built teams can’t win much with a quarterback playing like Wentz did in 2020. And we don’t know which Wentz will show up.
THE CRYSTAL BALL SAYS…
As said before, I’m aware I’ll be way ahead of other power rankings on the Colts. But I believe Frank Reich is a great coach, and I think Carson Wentz can at least be what he was in 2018 and 2019, and that wasn’t bad. The Colts are going to run the ball well, play good defense and generate some big plays when they need it. They’re a more complete team than the Tennessee Titans, and nobody else is a real threat to win the division. Give me the Colts to win the AFC South and be a real threat in the playoffs. The AFC has some great teams and a Super Bowl trip this season might not be in the Colts’ future, but I think they’ll be one of the NFL’s best teams and feel good about their quarterback situation going forward.
SCHWAB SO FAR
32. Houston Texans
31. Detroit Lions
30. Jacksonville Jaguars
29. New York Jets
28. Cincinnati Bengals
27. Philadelphia Eagles
26. Carolina Panthers
25. Atlanta Falcons
24. Las Vegas Raiders
23. New York Giants
22. Chicago Bears
21. Denver Broncos
20. Dallas Cowboys
19. Washington Football Team
18. Arizona Cardinals
17. Minnesota Vikings
16. Pittsburgh Steelers
15. New Orleans Saints
14. New England Patriots
13. Miami Dolphins
12. Los Angeles Chargers
11. Cleveland Browns
10. Tennessee Titans
9. Seattle Seahawks
8. Green Bay Packers
7. Los Angeles Rams
6. San Francisco 49ers
With the Colts at #5 – we count the Chiefs and Buccaneers still to be accounted for (no surprise) – as well as the Bills and Ravens.
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AFC EAST
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BUFFALO
S MICAH HYDE was one of the 12 players mentioned by QB AARON RODGERS as someone the Packers coldly dispatched who could have/should have stayed. He has some thoughts on being mentioned. Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:
Hyde said on Thursday in Buffalo that he considered an honor “To hear him say something like that, a Hall of Fame player, one of the best quarterbacks of all time.”
Hyde also said that Rodgers’ frustrations have been bubbling up for years. When Hyde signed a five-year, $30.5 million contract with the Bills in 2017, Rodgers let him know that he was upset the Packers hadn’t kept him.
“After leaving that place, I remember him reaching out to me and letting me know how frustrated he was,” Hyde said of Rodgers. “His presser yesterday was a well thought-out conversation he had with the media. I think he was speaking a lot of facts. Hearing him say my name was a blessing. If a guy like that thinks that highly of myself, I know I’m doing something right.”
Hyde has done a lot right in his four seasons in Buffalo, and Rodgers is making no secret that he’s unhappy he isn’t doing it in Green Bay.
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NEW YORK JETS
The “holdout” of QB ZACH WILSON is over and all of the league’s rookies are signed. NFL.com:
Zach Wilson’s brief absence from Jets training camp has come to an end.
The No. 2 overall pick agreed to terms with the club on his rookie deal, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported Thursday afternoon. The team has since announced the news. Wilson was the last 2021 first-round pick to sign his rookie contract after 49ers quarterback Trey Lance inked his deal Wednesday.
Wilson will receive a slotted $35.1 million on the deal with a $22.9 million signing bonus. Rapoport reported the BYU product will get the bonus within 15 days. That was a sticking point in contract talks between Wilson and the Jets. As a compromise, Wilson’s contract will include offset language.
Without Wilson in tow for the first few practices of Jets camp, New York were left with backups Mike White and James Morgan under center Wednesday and Thursday. But the QB reportedly took a red-eye flight Wednesday evening from Los Angeles to New York, Rapoport noted, and is ready to start practicing.
Jets coach Robert Saleh never expressed “panic” about Wilson missing too much time — less than 24 hours before Wilson agreed to terms, Saleh told reporters to ask him again tomorrow about Wilson’s absence. But after practice Thursday and before the Wilson news broke, Saleh did say that Wilson’s two days of camp missed were “two days too many already.”
“It’s more concern for the kid,” he said, per SNY. “This young man has a chance to do something special here that hasn’t been done in a long time.”
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THIS AND THAT
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BREAKOUT CANDIDATES
Gregg Rosenthal of NFL.com has put some thought into identifying players who will ascend in 2021 on each team. First, the NFC:
Arizona Cardinals
Chase Edmonds
Running back · Age 25
Breakout seasons often come down to getting the ball more. Edmonds is already a top-five running back in receiving value in 2021, according to Football Outsiders, and figures to get more carries this season with only James Conner to compete with. It’s trendy to line up running backs as wideouts, but few can win from the outside or the slot as consistently as Edmonds.
Atlanta Falcons
A.J. Terrell
Cornerback · Age 22
Terrell is unfortunately best known for struggling to cover Ja’Marr Chase in the 2020 College Football Playoff National Championship. That helped lead to Draft Twitter universally condemning the Falcons’ selection of Terrell over CeeDee Lamb as a reach, yet I haven’t seen many of the same analysts apologizing a year later. Terrell belongs. On a dark 2020 Falcons defense, the rookie was a ray of light. In today’s NFL, holding up as an average starting corner in Year 1 is a sign of great things to come. (So is defensive coordinator Dean Pees showing up in town.)
Carolina Panthers
Brian Burns
Defensive end · Age 23
Burns reminds me of a young Robert Quinn. His first step and juice are off the charts. So is his effort, which — combined with his speed — allows him to impact plays he appears out of. My friend Nate Tice broke it down better than I could earlier this offseason. Burns is already an impact rusher, but if he improves again in his third season, he could be an All-Pro.
Chicago Bears
Darnell Mooney
Wide receiver · Age 23
The Bears traded Anthony Miller last week because they didn’t need him. In Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney, Chicago could quietly have one of the better combinations of vertical threats in football. It just so happens they drafted a quarterback in Justin Fields who’s well-equipped to get the ball down the field where the Tulane product’s speed make him a tough cover.
Dallas Cowboys
Trevon Diggs
Cornerback · Age 23
I’ll admit that the Diggs’ selection is based more on the eyeball test and the reality that the Cowboys don’t have many young developmental players to tout. Diggs was beat early and often as a rookie, but his play improved throughout the season. FOX’s Troy Aikman couldn’t get enough of him, and I was also quite impressed by Diggs’ fluidity and plays on the ball during his best reps. He arrived in training camp this season making plays, with one of the Cowboys starting jobs locked down.
Detroit Lions
Aubrey Pleasant
Do not take Pleasant’s inclusion as the only coach on this list as a total indictment of the Lions’ roster. Just a partial indictment. The Flint native’s move from the Rams to the Lions was a coup for Dan Campbell, as Pleasant’s work coaching up Rams cornerbacks over the last few years was second to none. Don’t be surprised if Pleasant lands on some defensive coordinator interview lists if he can turn around the struggling group in Detroit. Last year’s No. 3 overall pick, Jeff Okudah, is coming off a rough rookie season, and the rest of the group lacks proven talent, so Pleasant should get noticed if he can help them settle down.
Green Bay Packers
Rashan Gary
Outside linebacker · Age 23
When a team drafts a “project” like Gary in the top 15, you just want to see obvious development by his second season. Gary showed that late last year, with the best month of his career coming during the Packers’ final games. He had two contests with at least six pressures and ranked as a top-10 edge rusher, per Pro Football Focus, in that limited sample size. The Packers’ defense is at its best with Za’Darius Smith rushing from the interior while Gary provides the speed off the edge, an alignment we’ll see more of in 2021.
Los Angeles Rams
Jordan Fuller
Safety · Age 23
The Rams rely on developing mid-to-late-round selections into quality starters to make up for all the first-round picks flying out the building and all the monster veteran deals inside of it. Fuller looks like their latest hit — a deep center safety whose quick adjustment to the pros allowed the team to let John Johnson leave in free agency. Despite a truncated rookie offseason, Fuller looked like a five-year vet from his first snap.
Minnesota Vikings
Xavier Woods
Safety · Age 26
I struggled to find a quality Making the Leap candidate on some teams. In Minnesota, I loved three: Woods, tight end Irv Smith Jr. and cornerback Cameron Dantzler. I chose Woods because I’ve always thought he was underrated and he’s entering a perfect situation. Mike Zimmer has a history of getting safeties like Anthony Harris, Andrew Sendejo and Robert Blanton to play better than anyone thought possible. Perhaps the secret is playing next to Harrison Smith, but leaving the mess in Dallas for this defense should help Woods finally use all his range to the fullest.
New Orleans Saints
Jameis Winston
Quarterback · Age 27
Michael Thomas isn’t expected to play for a while and it’s worth wondering if he’ll be the same player when he returns. The team’s most accomplished wideout is Tre’Quan Smith, and the starting tight end (Adam Trautman) had less than 200 yards last season. Taysom Hill isn’t going anywhere and makes way more money than Winston. So, yeah, there are a lot of factors working against Jameis, but the Saints’ excellent offensive line and better offensive head coach will set him up to beat modest expectations. This is absolutely a vote for Sean Payton, not to mention a player in Winston with 70 career starts and an average of 7.7 yards per attempt, a higher career figure than Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford and … (drumroll please) Tom Brady.
New York Giants
Daniel Jones
Quarterback · Age 24
Year 2 didn’t provide the considerable step forward that many wanted from Danny Dimes, if it provided a step forward at all. His reduction in turnovers came with a reduction in the impressive improvisational plays that provided hope during his rookie campaign. He threw well deep when he got the chance, but was under pressure so often and struggled so much with men in his face that it was hard to evaluate much else. The Giants’ O-line was miserable and there’s no guarantee it’s any better this year. That said, the weapons around Jones are certainly upgraded and should be healthier. I believe he’d be close to a league-average starter if he were protected, as evidenced by the fact that he fished 18th out of 42 quarterbacks in PFF’s grading of players who took at least 20 percent of their teams’ dropbacks in 2020. Being league average in actual production would represent a big leap — and might be enough for the Giants to make the playoffs.
Philadelphia Eagles
Dallas Goedert
Tight end · Age 26
This pick is almost cheating because Goedert was on pace for more than 800 yards a year ago if not for injuries getting in the way. Still, he piled up his 2020 production while sharing the field with Zach Ertz on a broken offense. Ertz is more than likely to be an ex-Eagle by Week 1, and Goedert has the skill set to be the NFC’s second-best tight end behind George Kittle.
San Francisco 49ers
Brandon Aiyuk
Wide receiver · Age 23
Aiyuk is so damn fun. He is also so much better as a route runner than he was given credit for during the draft process — and he can make tacklers look absolutely silly as he runs around, through and over them. I can’t believe the 49ers drafted a receiver that I’d take over Deebo Samuel as the team’s future No. 1 just a year after Samuel, but here we are. (And that future starts now.)
Seattle Seahawks
Alton Robinson
Defensive end · Age 23
Robinson has some obstacles in his way, despite recording four sacks and 18 pressures in only 344 snaps as a rookie. He faces the soft bigotry of being a fifth-round pick, where every big play he makes is an indictment on Darrell Taylor, Rasheem Green, L.J. Collier and other players selected higher than him. Robinson is also fighting for snaps as a backup to Carlos Dunlap at the team’s LEO spot with a whole gang of edge players signed this offseason like Kerry Hyder and Aldon Smith. With all that said, I’m trusting my eyes on Robinson. He looks like a young, ascending talent on a rookie contract playing for an organization that could desperately use more guys like that.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Antoine Winfield Jr.
Safety · Age 22
Everyone played so well for the Bucs down the stretch last year that it’s hard to find someone with room to improve. One place to start is at safety, where Winfield made massive plays early in his rookie year and then during the Bucs’ playoff run. In between, he was a difference maker as a run stuffer and player near the line of scrimmage, but still had some rookie moments in coverage, finishing 52nd out of 64 safeties in PFF’s grading among players who logged at least 50 percent of their teams’ snaps. Winfield has already shown he’s savvy beyond his years and is likely to improve on that weakness on the way to becoming one of the most complete safeties in football.
Washington Football Team
Antonio Gibson
Running back · Age 23
The question about Gibson entering his rookie season was whether the college wide receiver could hold up between the tackles. He wound up being one of the most impressive power runners in football. Gibson’s development was obvious for all to see; there isn’t a part of his game that is lacking. I would take Gibson over all six running backs taken ahead of him in the 2020 NFL Draft. Heck, I would take Gibson over all but five running backs (Alvin Kamara, Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffery) in the entire NFL right now.
And now, the AFC:
Baltimore Ravens
J.K. Dobbins
Running back · Age 22
Playing running back next to Lamar Jackson is like playing offensive lineman in front of Tom Brady: He’s going to make you look better. Dobbins’ advantages in the Ravens’ offense partially explain why he led the NFL in Football Outsiders’ value-per-rush metric — but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Dobbins is already one of the best outside zone runners in football, with the juice and vision to win on the edge in a way Gus Edwards and the 2019 version of Mark Ingram could not. Fantasy owners shouldn’t be that worried about Edwards; Dobbins is built for the 300-carry life.
Buffalo Bills
Gabriel Davis
Receiver · Age 22
Don’t punish Davis just because so many NFL teams missed on the fourth-rounder. Any rookie that finishes in the NFL’s top five in yards per catch (17.1) while scoring seven touchdowns and finishing second among receivers on his AFC championship-making squad in offensive snaps should have first-round worthy hype. He should be a bigger part of the Bills’ offense than 34-year-old free-agent pickup Emmanuel Sanders.
Cincinnati Bengals
Tee Higgins
Receiver · Age 22
Draft Twitter hipsters dismissed Higgins, a second-round choice in 2020, but the Bengals aren’t about drafting cool. They love big-name players with big production from bigger programs. That paid off with the former Clemson Tiger, who won consistently as a rookie whether he lined up in the slot or when he ran routes deep on the outside. It’s rare to see a player with his length able to break tackles and come down with jump balls.
Cleveland Browns
Jedrick Wills
Left tackle · Age 22
Wills was excellent for a rookie left tackle on the best offensive line in football, even if he didn’t have the stretches of dominance that we saw from fellow 2020 first-rounders Tristan Wirfs of the Bucs or Mekhi Becton of the Jets. There are reasons to believe Wills will continue to prosper in 2021. He was much better as a pass protector than a run blocker, and run-blocking is more easily taught — especially when one of the best to ever coach linemen, Bill Callahan, is helping out. Wills also learned well on the job. Of the nine sacks/QB hits he was credited with giving up last season, according to Pro Football Focus, only two came from Week 8 on (including playoffs).
Denver Broncos
Jerry Jeudy
Receiver · Age 22
Jeudy just moves differently. I’m not sure how anyone can watch Jeudy run a handful of routes and not become convinced he’s a star. The drops were frustrating, but he wouldn’t be the first great receiver to have streaky hands — and he’s going to have plenty of opportunities for streaks, because he’s always open. Hopefully, Teddy Bridgewater can put the ball on target more often than Drew Lock did a year ago.
Houston Texans
Zach Cunningham
Linebacker · Age 26
It’s weird to put a player who already received a big second contract on this list, but the Texans are a weird team. There just aren’t many young developmental players to track (pass rusher Charles Omenihu is one), and I’m curious to see how Cunningham responds to new coordinator Lovie Smith’s system. Already established as one of the best run-stopping linebackers in the league, Cunningham became more of a liability in coverage over the last two years. There is some belief in Houston that Smith’s zone-coverage bonafides and the fifth-year pro’s athleticism will help make this system a better fit. It may be July-inflected optimism, but I’m buying it.
Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor
Running back · Age 22
It’s rare to see a light bulb go off as obviously as it did for Taylor midway through his rookie season. The second-round pick was initially hesitant and often hit the wrong gap, but the game eventually slowed down for him early in downs before he sped away from tacklers. After Week 13, only Derrick Henry gained more rushing yards on the ground among NFL RBs. There’s no reason why Taylor can’t stake his claim as one of the best rushers in football.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Laviska Shenault Jr.
Receiver · Age 22
It’s hard not to like Shenault, who bounces off defenders as if he were a young Maurice Jones-Drew playing wide receiver instead of running back. Urban Meyer has sung his praises this offseason, as have beat writers, which puts the 2020 second-rounder on this list over cornerback C.J. Henderson, selected with the ninth overall pick last year. Meyer’s offenses can always make use of players who make plays after the catch, and that’s Shenault’s specialty, giving him a chance to be the AFC’s answer to Deebo Samuel.
Kansas City Chiefs
L’Jarius Sneed
Cornerback · Age 24
The Chiefs have a way of coaching up terrific production at cornerback from surprising places. Enter Sneed, a fourth-round pick who ranked higher in PFF’s coverage metrics than any 2020 rookie. The Chiefs are starving for some young players to develop as foundational pieces on defense, and Sneed’s natural ability to adjust to the ball in the air has him on a sneaky star track.
Las Vegas Raiders
Trayvon Mullen
Cornerback · Age 23
Mullen declined in 2020, like much of the Raiders’ defense. But the 2019 second-rounder’s tenacity and effort still showed up each week. A new defensive system led by new coordinator Gus Bradley can only help a Vegas D that has nowhere to go but up. Mullen’s strong rookie season, leadership skills and propensity for getting his hands on the ball (14 passes defensed in 2020) all bode well for his third NFL season and should help make at least one of general manager Mike Mayock’s heavy investments in the secondary pay off.
Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert
Quarterback · Age 23
Herbert made hard throws under pressure look easy, and he made impossible throws look possible. If not for one of the league’s worst offensive lines and a defense that couldn’t hold a lead, his Offensive Rookie of the Year season would be better recognized as one of the great quarterback debuts in NFL history. Playing like a top-10 QB from the jump is nearly unheard of, so the ceiling here is for Herbert to make a run at the MVP award in Year 2, like Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson.
Miami Dolphins
Austin Jackson
Left tackle · Age 21
Miami Dolphins
Robert Hunt
Offensive line · Age 24
Miami Dolphins
Solomon Kindley
Offensive line · Age 24
I believe with all my heart that many of the players on this list will make that leap. However, there are a few others who were included because they are so vital to their teams’ success — and that’s the case with Miami’s second-year offensive linemen. PFF was not particularly enthused about the trio’s play — and they weren’t the only ones who found the O-line lacking. Dolfans will swear up and down that we’re all wrong. With Hunt likely moving inside to guard and Jackson asked to hold down left tackle after the team passed on Penei Sewell at No. 6 overall, this group could make or break this offense.
New England Patriots
Damien Harris
Running back · Age 24
My well-coiffed Around the NFL co-host Dan Hanzus said he would bet his life on the 2019 third-rounder improving this season, while making a player comp to Corey Dillon that I like so much, I’m stealing it here. All Bill Belichick has ever wanted is a slashing, decisive runner like Harris to go all 1980s on the lightweight defenses dotting the league. With Harris — and a powerhouse offensive line — Belichick is ready to play heavy.
New York Jets
Quinnen Williams
Defensive tackle · Age 23
Williams’ second-half surge came just in time for fans wondering if he was going to live up to the predraft hype that accompanied his selection with the third overall pick in 2019. You could argue that he’s already Made the Leap, but playing the DeForest Buckner role in Robert Saleh’s defense would be another step up. The only concern here is that Williams is coming off foot surgery (he’s currently on the PUP list) and has missed three games in each of his two seasons thus far. Otherwise, he has the game and the personality to become a New York favorite, starting now.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Diontae Johnson
Receiver · Age 25
You have to get open a lot to drop the ball as much as Johnson did in 2020. While the streakiness was frustrating, Johnson makes too many excellent hand catches and grabs in tight traffic to believe that he’s destined to struggle with drops forever. In a league increasingly reliant on man coverage, Johnson’s ability to beat one-on-one matchups is nearly unmatched, as our old friend Matt Harmon loves to point out. I’d take the 2019 third-rounder over Chase Claypool as the Steelers’ No. 1 wideout this year, and I’ll take Johnson to go over 1,200 yards in his third pro season.
Tennessee Titans
Jeffery Simmons
Defensive tackle · Age 23
A handful of the players on this list — like Simmons — are already great, so they should probably be on a Let’s Make Them More Famous list instead. At any rate, Simmons built on his impressive rookie season in 2019 by cranking up the pass rush from the interior in Year 2, recording 41 pressures at 301 pounds. There’s still another step for him to go up, and it should result in a Chris Jones-like contract in a few years.
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