The Daily Briefing Friday, July 8, 2022

NFC EAST

WASHINGTON

Dan Snyder has been accused of dodging the subpoena of the Democrats on the House committee that has made it their mission to investigate the culture of Washington’s football team.  But, through his lawyer, he has found two dates in which he could fit an appearance before the committee into his busy schedule.  This from Jacob Calvin Meyer of the Washington Times:

Washington Commanders owner Dan Snyder, through his lawyer, offered two dates to testify before the House Oversight and Reform Committee later this month, according to a letter sent to Chairwoman Carolyn Maloney on Thursday.

Snyder’s attorney, Karen Patton Seymour, wrote to Maloney, a New York Democrat, and offered July 28 or July 29 as dates that the embattled billionaire could testify remotely before the committee that has been investigating the Commanders’ workplace culture since last fall.

However, according to the letter, the committee previously offered July 6 or July 8 for the longtime Washington owner to testify. However, Seymour wrote that she was “unavailable” for those days. Seymour added that she has “not heard anything” from the committee since a phone call on June 30 to discuss the conflicts out of country that she and Snyder both say they have.

“Unfortunately, despite Mr. Snyder’s good faith efforts to cooperate with the Committee by proposing two dates for a voluntary appearance, the discussions thus far with the Committee’s staff have not been fruitful, and I remain concerned that the Committee is not proceeding in a manner that sufficiently respects Mr. Snyder’s right to fundamentally fair treatment,” Seymour wrote.

The July 29 date that Seymour offered is the final day the House is in session before the August recess.

AFC WEST

LAS VEGAS

Under attack from members of the media and former employees for having a bad “culture”, Washington’s football team hired a black team president.

Under attack from members of the media and former employees for having a bad “culture”, the Raiders have hired a female black team president.

Owner Mark Davis also pledges to get to the bottom of the problems.  Mike Florio ofProFootballTalk.com:

On the same day that the Raiders officially hired a new president, team owner Mark Davis addressed the deeper issues that have sparked an organizational upheaval. Davis, in comments to Mick Akers of the Las Vegas Review-Journal, discussed for the first time the claims of workplace dysfunctional and hostility that have surfaced in recent weeks.

“The culture of this organization for me is so important,” Davis told Akers. “Since the articles that came out, not only in the New York Times, but the [Review-Journal] . . . I take those very seriously. So we did an investigation into all those things and we listened to the people who work in the organization and I believe we started to make those changes that are necessary to get the culture back to where we feel we can all be positive.”

The fact that the Raiders did their own investigation will conjure memories of Commissioner Roger Goodell’s explanation from February that a team (in that case, the Commanders) cannot investigate itself. The league’s role, if any, in this process remains unknown.

The efforts have culminated in the hiring of Sandra Douglass Morgan to become the team’s new president. The Raiders also have hired Heather DeSanto to be the team’s new V.P. of human resources.

“[Morgan] understands that it is the people first and that’s the kind of culture that we’re going to build,” Davis said. “She’s looking forward to meeting everybody in the organization, one-on-one, to get to know them and get their feedback and start building that family culture again.”

One of the most outspoken on-the-record critics of the team, former H.R. employee Nicole Adams, welcomes the change, if it’s something other than window dressing.

“I think it’s a wonderful step that [Davis] is taking towards trying to improve the team’s image, but hiring the first ever Black female president doesn’t necessarily mean that things will change,” Adams told Akers via text message. “I just hope that the new president is the person who is truly going to improve the culture of the team, and not just a figurehead put in place to take the heat off of them.”

Davis obviously believes the changes in personnel will lead to changes in culture.

“We were beginning to be more corporate in the organization where a title was more important than the person that was wearing the title,” Davis told Akers. “It got to the point where people could be replaceable. ‘We can get [a senior vice president] for this anywhere.’ That’s never been what the Raiders organization has been about. It’s always been about the people first and family. . . . We never really got to start the Las Vegas Raiders with a culture that had momentum.”

That momentum needs to start now. And while it will be a very good thing if things change for the better, the question becomes what exactly happened in the past, and whether there will be any real accountability for it.

That’s the one thread that the Raiders situation shares with the past issues in Washington. Things are changing, hopefully for the better. But it’s not like applying a fresh coat of paint to a dingy old wall. The past imperfections need to be properly understood, and the team and the league need to be sure that those who were responsible for misconduct get something more than a don’t do it again.

Hopefully, the Raiders will welcome that. Hopefully, they won’t adopt the same indignation that has emanated from the Commanders in recent weeks, with ownership lashing out at those who still have unanswered questions about what truly happened and what actually will be done about it.

Not that this is all of it, but one of the things Adams felt was poor culture was she and other employees were asked to dress LESS provocatively.  This from a story atPopCulture.com:

Former Raiders human resources employee Nicole Adams said Ventrelle was also involved in the misconduct. “Dan was involved in every situation that happened, every situation of harassment, every situation of a hostile working condition,” Adams said.

The report from Erickson and Akers goes on to say that some women claimed they were told how to dress and were singled out for distracting the men in the office. “Those things were inappropriate because I had boobs and a butt,” she said. “I just started wearing pants because I felt like I couldn’t wear skirts or dresses, or I would be seen as being provocative.”

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE

One more year in Baltimore for EDGE JUSTIN HOUSTON.  Jeremy Bergman ofNFL.com:

Justin Houston is officially returning to Baltimore this season, agreeing to terms Thursday on a one-year deal with the Ravens.

Baltimore had placed the UFA tender on the veteran pass rusher earlier this offseason. Houston was eligible to sign with any club until July 22, but the 33-year-old outside linebacker re-signed with the Ravens 15 days out from the deadline.

Houston brings his charms back to the Charm City after logging 15 starts, 34 combined tackles and 4.5 sacks for the Ravens in 2021, his first season with the club.

The longtime Chiefs star had spent the two prior campaigns in Indianapolis. Houston reached four Pro Bowls and earned first-team All-Pro honors once during his eight-year stay in Kansas City. His 102 sacks are tied for the fourth-most among active players behind Von Miller (115.5), Chandler Jones (107.5) and Cameron Jordan (107); J.J. Watt also has 102 sacks.

CLEVELAND

There is evidence (is it hearsay?) that at least one of the many accusers of QB DESHAUN WATSON may have adjusted her memory of her encounter with the quarterback as it became apparent it would be to her advantage to do so.  Mike Florio on the revelations fed to Josina Anderson:

Last week, we suspected that there would be an effort this week to push back against some of the allegations against Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson. On Thursday, some reporting along those lines emerged.

Josina Anderson of CBS Sports has shared, via a series of tweets, some information that undermines the claims of one of Deshaun Watson’s accusers.

Here’s the full report from Anderson: “I’m told there’s a recording of an interview with the adult son of 1 of 12 women the NFL interviewed in the Deshaun Watson case — stating his mom initially was complimentary of Watson in their conversations after the massage, but later switched her account and tone after negative allegations surfaced about Watson. The son intimated his mother intended to reward his silence, per league source. There’s a feeling that the NFL was initially cagey about details they learned from the woman’s son — after only mentioning they interviewed him in their report. The son’s recording was later reviewed by Watson’s side revealing the aforementioned details — presumably illuminating why this particular accuser was not included with the 5 women the NFL ultimately focused on at the hearing.”

It’s unclear whether the woman in question has settled her claims against Watson. Of the 24 plaintiffs, 20 have resolved their claims.

Whatever the reason(s), the NFL ultimately focused on five and only five cases despite the fact that at least 24 women have made allegations against Watson. That’s the extent of the league’s evidence. And Anderson confirms our report from last week that, as to the five cases on which the NFL focused, there was no evidence of violence, force, threat or coercion.

On Monday, the parties will submit their written materials in support of their respective positions. Then, we’ll wait for a ruling from Judge Sue L. Robinson, the disciplinary officer presiding over the case.

AFC SOUTH

TENNESSEE

WR KYLE PHILLIPS is a rookie 5^th round pick who has made a good impression in Titans camp.  Jim Wyatt of TennesseeTitans.com:

Kyle Philips grew up in Southern California, and he played football at UCLA, where he wore No.2.

The receiver now plays for the Titans, where he’s teammates with a guy he watched playing for the Los Angeles Rams.

That player, Robert Woods, is now No.2 in Tennessee.

“Kind of crazy, huh?,” Philips said of Woods. “Just growing up watching him play, and he was with the Rams with one of my good buddies (Terrell Burgess). … Now I am out here watching him, and learning from him. It’s kind of crazy, really, but it’s really cool.”

Philips, selected in the fifth round of the 2022 NFL Draft, now wears No.18 in Tennessee.

His goal is to be on the team’s 53-man roster, and helping the team any way he can, starting this fall.

“I know I have to prove I can win at the receiver position, whether that is blocking, winning at routes, contested balls,” Philips said. “I just have to consistently win.

“I think most people underestimate me a little bit because of my size in regards to blocking. … I just try to do what I do, and just play ball.”

Philips, a 5-foot-11, 189-pounder, won a lot at UCLA.

In four seasons with the Bruins, Philips caught 163 passes for 1,821 yards and 17 touchdowns. Philips had a reception in each of the last 29 games he played in and 35 catches in the last five games of the 2021 season.

During the offseason in Tennessee, he’s already gotten the attention of those around him.

“Kyle’s definitely a great route runner,” Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill said. “He’s got some quickness, some agility, (and I’m) getting to learn his craft as he learns our offense and sees where he fits in.

“But definitely he’s flashed for me a few times and (I’ve) seen some good things. So, I’ll definitely keep the pressure on him as he learns what we’re doing, and I think if he does that, he’ll continue to make plays.”

Titans receivers coach Rob Moore thinks the rookie has talent.

“He’s starting to understand some of the fundamentals he has to develop, and how he’s going to have to play in this league, in regards to being able to create separation and to be effective on a consistent basis, and those are things he is figuring out right now,” Moore said. “But the kid has really good short area quickness and he has a lot of tools to build on.”

Philips, taken with the 163rd overall pick, caught 59 passes for 739 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2021. He led all Pac-12 receivers with the 10 touchdown catches and he rated No. 2 in the Pac-12 in receiving yards per game (67.18) and No. 3 in the league in receptions per game average (5.36).

Phillips (5-11, 191) also averaged 22.6 yards per punt return this season, including an 82-yard touchdown scamper against Colorado. He posted 100-yard games against Fresno State (113) and Stanford (120) last year. He was named first-team All-Pac-12 as a receiver and was a second-team selection as a kick returner by the league’s coaches.

Titans special teams coach Craig Aukerman listed Philips as one of the guys who will be in the mix in the return game.

“Kyle brings a lot of good things for us, and the one thing we liked watching him at UCLA is when he caught the ball, he would run and get vertical,” Aukerman said. “There wasn’t a lot of dancing around, trying to make too many moves. He was just going to catch it and go upfield.”

AFC EAST

MIAMI

Arif Hasan of The Athletic with a look at QB TUA TAGOVAILOA and his chances of success in 2022:

It has been a rough couple of years for Dolphins fans, in no small part because of the volatility surrounding their franchise and their quarterback.

Yet the fans are engaged, especially those who are part of “TuAnon,” a group that ardently defends struggling young Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. One TuAnon premise is that Tagovailoa has essentially been sabotaged, intentionally or not, by the nature of the Dolphins’ offense and his supporting cast.

If the group’s theory is accurate, that’s huge. The quarterback quality in the AFC is arguably the best it has ever been, and the AFC East once again plays a central role in that. The Bills’ Josh Allen is among the favorites to win MVP this season. The Patriots’ Mac Jones last season was runner-up to Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase for Offensive Rookie of the Year.

For the Dolphins to compete in the division, they’ll need more from their starting quarterback, who was the fifth pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Tagovailoa started 12 of his 13 games last year, and went 7-5. Yet he ranked 24th of 33 qualified passers in both yards per attempt and adjusted yards per attempt, which takes into account touchdowns and interceptions. He ranked 19th in both passer rating and adjusted net yards per attempt, which accounts for sacks as well. That has produced an output per play of 0.062 expected points, ranked 20th among quarterbacks last year.

While it’s not a bottom-tier performance, it is fairly alarming in a tough division and conference for the position.

So it’s a big chicken-and-egg question: Was Tagovailoa’s offense unique because he was a limited quarterback, or does he simply appear to be a limited quarterback because his offense is unique?

And now, with the arrival of new head coach Mike McDaniel, how might things change for Tagovailoa?

The Miami offense the past few years specialized in the run-pass option, or RPO. While this innovation has received a lot of airtime, the actual mechanics of the play are often misunderstood. Announcers will sometimes identify standard play-action passes as RPOs, forgetting the choice element inside the play and how it changes play design and offensive line assignments.

An RPO is simply a play where the decision to run or throw the ball is made after the snap. The advantages are easy to see — defenses don’t know what the play is until the last moment, and are made to be “wrong” with every read. If the defense plays run, then the offense passes, and vice versa.

NFL teams often incorporate RPOs by adding one or two such plays, like a bubble screen or a slant, to their normal offense. It’s difficult to find an offense that can be genuinely good at RPOs in a meaningful way.

But the Miami offense catered to Tagovailoa’s elite execution of RPOs. The Dolphins have run more RPOs than any other NFL offense over the past two seasons, with more than 15 percent of Tagovailoa’s passing attempts coming out of the concept last year, per Pro Football Focus. His success rate and yards per attempt rival elite quarterbacks in RPO situations.

A big part of that is because Miami’s RPO game is diverse. It’s willing to throw bubble screens, flat routes, slants, hitches, short posts, wheel routes and even pump-and-go deep shots on occasion. This has resulted in a more complete and integrated offense than most uses of the RPO in the NFL.

But a quick passing game is often a short passing game. The relationship between time to throw and average passing depth is intuitive and somewhat strong: Over the past decade, the average passing depth of faster-than-average throws is a yard and a half shorter than the passing depth of other throws.

Tagovailoa’s time to throw in each of the past two seasons was 2.42 seconds, which is faster than 90 percent of the quarterback season times in the dataset over the past decade. His passing depth in those seasons was also shorter. In 2021, it was shorter than 90 percent of those seasons, while in 2020 it was shorter than 80 percent.

Being the best at RPOs in the NFL might not mean much. While Tagovailoa averaged more yards per attempt than most of his contemporaries in RPOs, that amounted to only 7.10 yards per attempt over two years. That’s better than his yardage on non-RPO attempts by a bit over half a yard. Only Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson have done better on RPO attempts.

But it’s a fairly weak trump card for Tagovailoa. Compared to other skills some top quarterbacks have, it’s surprisingly modest. Offenses have to be diverse by nature, so a quarterback specializing in a specific throw or tactic must have a high ceiling on that skill for the offense to lean on it. But the RPO can’t be that, because it’s a pretty impotent ace in the hole.

“There are limitations to what can be accomplished through scheme alone,” said Mark Schofield, a former college quarterback who’s now a writer for USA Today. “The players and coaches on the other side of the football are good at what they do as well, and over time, defenses and defensive staffs can start to figure things out. …

“As Benjamin Solak wrote last season, when the Dolphins tried to make the whole offense out of RPOs, defenses began to adjust over time. That puts stress on what the offense can do, and whether the quarterback himself can expand the playbook.”

The problem isn’t that Tagovailoa was good at RPOs, but rather that the Dolphins’ offense couldn’t function on non-RPO plays. Whether that’s an issue with Tagovailoa or something else is an important question.

The Dolphins had the worst pass-blocking line in the NFL by a number of measures. ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate, which measures whether an offensive lineman executed his job regardless of pressure, pegged Miami as the worst line in the NFL in 2021. It had the lowest PFF pass-blocking grade by a decent margin as well.

The only reason the Dolphins allowed a lower pressure rate than many other NFL teams is because Tagovailoa got rid of the ball before pressure arrived. By contrast, when Jacoby Brissett played for the Dolphins last year, he had the highest pressure rate of any quarterback in the NFL.

Tagovailoa also hasn’t had the world’s best receiving corps. His yards per attempt improved in 2021 on both RPO (5.71 YPA to 7.76) and non-RPO passes (6.33 to 6.61) after the team added Jaylen Waddle. The offseason trade to bring in Tyreek Hill should help even more.

Schofield said that under McDaniel, Tagovailoa will enjoy the “benefit of an offensive system that we have seen prop up quarterbacks through both run game and pass game elements. Offenses in that McVay/Shanahan coaching tree have turned both Jared Goff and Jimmy Garoppolo into Super Bowl quarterbacks.”

In particular, it will draw on concepts Tagovailoa executes well and specifically his traits that set him apart from other quarterbacks. Tagovailoa, for example, might be one of the quickest decision-makers in the NFL.

“He gets through stuff really quick,” said The Athletic’s Nate Tice, another former college quarterback. “I’ve always wondered if that’s a bug or a feature. Is that because he knows to go through so quickly or is he guessing? I’ve been trying to figure that out …  I have no idea if Tua is a smart quarterback or a dumb quarterback.”

Tagovailoa does make his fair share of mistakes going to his third or fourth read and misses out on opportunities earlier in the progression, but he’s often right when he declines that first read and he’s faster than most other NFL quarterbacks in making that determination. Bucky Brooks, a former NFL scout and current contributor to the NFL Network, thought that trait was an apt comparison to Drew Brees.

The play-action element of McDaniel’s offense is important. Even when excluding RPO dropbacks — something often counted as play action — from the sample, Tagavailoa has extensive experience with the concept. Last year, he ranked 11th in percentage of dropbacks that come from non-RPO play action. Also, many of the skills necessary for good RPO passing are assets in the play-action game, from ball-handling to quick half-field diagnosis.

But experience doesn’t mean skill. Tagovailoa’s depth of target on play-action passes, even when excluding RPOs, ranks 31st among his peers. His accuracy helps him, but he caps his own potential here.

“He’s got to push the ball,” Tice said. “Just be more aggressive. Not everything has to be underneath.”

In addition to his limited deep-ball rate, Tagovailoa’s unwillingness to throw over the middle of the field is also a concern.

McDaniel’s offense, predicated in a big way on enabling yards after the catch, typically attempts to find those yards on those middle-of-the-field throws. Yet Tagovailoa’s “EPA on throws over the middle is bottom-five,” Tice said. “It’s the same as (Jalen) Hurts, Carson Wentz, and it’s just above Big Ben. He doesn’t like attacking over the middle.”

– – –

It’s not all negative. Tagovailoa has good accuracy, and it shows out in a number of ways — his completion rate above expected, which accounts for throwing depth, ranks 13th among NFL passers. When adjusting for drops, throwaways, spikes and batted passes, he ranks 18th. He also ranks 12th in Pro Football Focus’ “accurate” pass rate, which looks at the rate of passes that are better than catchable — they’re thrown in a way to protect the receiver, maximize yards after catch or otherwise do more than simply land on target.

This trait translates for quarterbacks more than any other. An accurate quarterback tends to be accurate from season to season, and if the Dolphins can find a way to expand Tagovailoa’s game, that accuracy will be a big asset.

It’s possible the Dolphins improved their non-quarterback offensive positions more than any other team in the league this offseason. Knowing their offensive line issues, they signed former Saints tackle Terron Armstead as well as former Cowboys interior offensive lineman Connor Williams. They may also be expecting a leap forward in development from Liam Eichenberg, last year’s second-round pick. Third-year player Robert Hunt was perhaps Miami’s best offensive lineman last year.

In addition to Year 2 with Waddle, the team gains Cedrick Wilson Jr., a free-agent acquisition from Dallas who played to the talent of a second receiver despite being third on the depth chart. Running backs Sony Michel, Raheem Mostert and Salvon Ahmed are also familiar with the concepts in McDaniel’s system.

But even all of that won’t be enough to ensure success. Last year’s Browns couldn’t make an offense with Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry and the best running back group in the league work with Baker Mayfield, despite a high-level offensive line. On the flip side, we saw how switching out Jameis Winston for Tom Brady impacted the supremely talented Buccaneers offense. The Rams jumpstarted their offense by trading out Goff for Matthew Stafford, winning a Super Bowl in the process.

Behind the scenes, Tagovailoa won’t be dealing with coaching chaos. The Dolphins have had a rotating cast of offensive coordinators in recent years and off-field turmoil led to head coach Brian Flores’ firing and resulting lawsuit. Tagovailoa found himself on the bench for injury or performance reasons somewhat regularly, interrupting his ability to develop chemistry. A more stable coaching environment with an inarguably better supporting cast will mean the world for Tagovailoa, but it won’t matter unless he takes a step forward.

It’s less about reducing negative plays and more about making the positive plays really count. Counterintuitively, Tagovailoa needs to be more comfortable making negative plays more often, and taking chances to ensure his positive plays have an impact.

The odds seem low that he can accomplish that, but his fellow height-challenged quarterbacks (Tagovailoa is 6 feet) provide a template for success. Brees learned to slide between offensive line viewing windows to find optimal throws over the middle. Russell Wilson knows when to scramble and when to merely extend the play, all while avoiding hits. Kyler Murray trusts his receivers in contested situations downfield.

Tagovailoa has been hampered by his environment, but his own issues are also holding him back. While there are some statistical methods that showcase reasons for optimism, there are just as many or more indications on film and in the data that he won’t be able to take the next step. But among all the quarterbacks who struggled last season, Tagovailoa has more tools in the toolbox with which to work and make a leap.

THIS AND THAT

TEAMS THAT WILL TAKE A STEP BACK

Tyler Sullivan of CBSSports.com identifies five teams that will “take a step back” in 2022, including one, the Bears, that didn’t get very far forward:

One of the things that makes the NFL great is its parity. While some teams are consistently in the mix, there is also a healthy amount of turnover of contenders. Last year’s Super Bowl is a great example of that with the Bengals going from a 4-11-1 team in 2020 to a club that was vying for a Lombardi Trophy the following season. Even the Super Bowl champion Rams were on the outside looking in on the playoffs in 2019 before winning it all in 2021. Simply put, teams are rising and falling each season in the NFL, and 2022 will be no different.

With that in mind, we’re going to take a look at a handful of teams that could be on a downward swing this season and take a step back from where they were in 2021.

5. Chicago Bears

We’re going to expand the definition of “step back” for the purposes of this conversation and not merely predict who’ll have a worse win/loss record than the previous season. As it relates to the Bears, we’re looking at them to take a step back not only in the NFC North standings (third place in 2021) but on the offensive side of the ball as well.

Last season, Chicago had the sixth lowest-scoring offense in the NFL, averaging just 18.3 points per game. Those totals were even worse in Justin Fields’ 10 starts (16.8 points per game). While it’ll be fascinating to see how Fields improves as he heads into Year 2 and his first season as the full-time starter, there’s not much around him to feel optimistic about this unit as a whole. The wide receiver group lost Allen Robinson in free agency and now boasts Darnell Mooney, Byron Pringle, and Equanimeous St. Brown as its top three receivers. Meanwhile, the Bears O-line recently ranked 31st in the NFL by Pro Football Focus.

With Fields’ running ability and running back David Montgomery as likely the Bears’ best route of attack on offense, that does limit the overall scoring ceiling, setting up an even worse finish in that spot than 2021. So, not only is this team looking at a possible last-place finish, but it could also be in contention for the lowest-scoring offense in the NFL.

4. Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks finished last in the NFC West in 2021, so there isn’t much lower they can fall in that regard. However, they still were able to win seven games, which likely won’t be the case this season. The biggest reason for that is the massive drop-off in talent at quarterback. This offseason, Seattle traded away franchise quarterback Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos and now have a training camp battle looming between Drew Lock and Geno Smith. In their career starts, these quarterbacks are a combined 21-34, which pales in comparison to Wilson’s 104-53-1 career record in the regular season.

Because of the free fall at quarterback, Seattle isn’t expected to make much noise in 2022 and could be among the bottom third of the league. With Lock/Smith slotting in under center over Wilson, the Seahawks will also be a less entertaining watch on a weekly basis.

3. Cleveland Browns

The Browns are the biggest wild card on this list. They made one of the biggest blockbuster trades of the offseason by landing former Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson, but there’s still no clarity on whether or not he’ll actually play for them this season. He is still waiting for a ruling by disciplinary officer Sue L. Robinson on what sort of punishment (if any) he’ll face for his off-the-field issues, which included up to 24 lawsuits of sexual misconduct previously being filed against him. If Robinson rules in favor of the NFL, Watson could face an indefinite suspension that lasts at least a full season.

That result would leave the Browns exposed at quarterback, especially in the aftermath of trading Baker Mayfield to the Panthers. If Watson is suspended, Jacoby Brissett would be the team’s starter. While a solid backup, Brissett doesn’t bring the same level of talent that Watson does, and Cleveland’s ceiling for how far it could go in 2022 would be capped. When you account for a possible punishment for Watson and the fact that the AFC North should be more competitive in 2022 with the Ravens getting healthy, the Bengals emerging as a Super Bowl threat, and the Steelers bringing along a first-round quarterback, it could be tough sledding for the Browns.

2. Kansas City Chiefs

I’m not saying that the Chiefs will be on the outside looking in on the playoffs with this take. However, their road to the postseason will be more difficult than its ever been under Patrick Mahomes in 2022. This offseason, the entire AFC West went through an arms race that now makes them the consensus toughest division in the NFL. The Broncos traded for Wilson and the Chargers bolstered their defense with corner J.C. Jackson and pass rusher Khalil Mack. Meanwhile, the Raiders have a new coaching staff headlined by Josh McDaniels, while also improving the roster, trading for star wideout Davante Adams and signing pass rusher Chandler Jones in free agency.

While all this talent was entering the division, the Chiefs saw a bit of a talent drain. They traded receiver Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins and elected to let safety Tyrann Mathieu walk in free agency. Those two were some of the key pillars to what made the Chiefs Super Bowl champions in 2019, so this is something of a new era for Kansas City.

Of course, Mahomes still has tight end Travis Kelce to work with and the team did bring in JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and rookie Skyy Moore at receiver. That said, there will likely be some sort of growing pains as these new pieces find their footing.

Because the rest of the division got better, that also makes the road through the regular season quite difficult for the Chiefs. Based on projected win totals, the Chiefs have the hardest schedule in the NFL in 2022. Again, this doesn’t mean that they won’t make the playoffs or fail to win the AFC West, but it’s no longer a slam dunk.

1. Tennessee Titans

The Titans were the No. 1 seed in the AFC last season and it’s hard to see a scenario where that comes to fruition again in 2022. In fact, Tennessee isn’t even the favorite to win the AFC South this year after the Indianapolis Colts were able to upgrade at quarterback this offseason by trading for Matt Ryan.

This could prove to be a pivotal year for the Titans, especially at quarterback. Despite leading his team to a 12-5 record, Ryan Tannehill took a step back in 2021. His passer rating was the lowest it’s been since he arrived in Nashville and his 14 interceptions during the regular season were the most in his Titans tenure and second-most of his career. Those turnovers issues also reared their head in Tennessee’s one-and-done appearance in the playoffs as he threw three interceptions in the club’s 19-16 loss to the Bengals in the Divisional Round.

If Tannehill struggles again this season, the Titans do have an out in his contract next offseason where they could clear just under $20 million in cap space. Tennessee also drafted former Liberty quarterback Malik Willis in the third round, stoking even more fuel to the flames of Tannehill entering a make-or-break season.

Ultimately, it wouldn’t be surprising to see that downward trajectory for Tannehill continue and, with the AFC getting stronger over the offseason, Tennessee could very well go from being the No.1 seed in 2021 to missing out on the postseason party in 2022.

Not a bad list.  Presumably there will be a follow-up with five teams that will take a step forward (we would think Denver, Philadelphia and the Jets would be three of them).

BROADCAST NEWS

DirectTV will not hold onto NFL Sunday Ticket after this year.  Mike Florio ofProFootballTalk.com:

The Commissioner has confirmed one of the worst-kept secrets in the NFL.

Appearing on CNBC, Roger Goodell said that Sunday Ticket will exit DirecTV after the 2022 season.

Via Daniel Kaplan of TheAthletic.com, Goodell said that Sunday Ticket will end up with a streaming service, and that a decision will be made this fall.

CNBC recently reported that Apple, Disney, and Amazon have made bids for the out-of-market viewing package, with the three corporate behemoths waiting for the NFL’s next move.

As also reported by CNBC, the contracts between the NFL and CBS/Fox prevent the DirecTV successor from significantly slashing the $300 per year price for the package. This protects the companies that have paid big money for the ability to put games on the local affiliates available in a given area.

It also does no favors for fans/consumers who want to watch the games they choose to watch. At this point, however, most fans/consumers would gladly pay the price to get an effective and reliable Internet-based option for watching the games that aren’t being televised in the areas where they live.

For all the advances the league has made in recent years, Sunday Ticket continues to lag. As of next year, that apparently will end.

As long as you have effective and reliable high-speed Internet service. If you don’t, I’m sorry but I’m afraid you can’t come along for the ride.

CFB UPHEAVAL

Pete Thamel of ESPN.com updates us on what the world of college football looks like on this Friday in July, 2022.

The shock and awe portion of realignment appears to have hit a pause. We’ve transitioned from the searing range of emotions in the immediate aftermath of USC and UCLA hopscotching to the Big Ten to the cold calculations of the next steps that will shape the future of college sports.

Talk of poaching, mergers and arrangements — notice an aversion to using the word “alliance” after the ACC/Big Ten/Pac-12 pairing quickly became a punchline — is followed by chatter about consultants, projections, revenue share and per school payouts. Want to know where your school is going next? Follow the money.

“Everyone is an accounting major right now,” joked an industry source.

As the media consultants and CFOs crunch their numbers in preparation for the next flurry of moves — or perhaps the data drives folks to stay put? — let’s take account of what’s looming in the near future and the factors shaping the next wave of realignment.

Can a bicoastal ACC/Pac-12 arrangement really work?

There’s been a thesaurus leafed through on conference calls to find the best non-alliance wording to describe a potential long-distance arranged marriage between the ACC and Pac-12. Partnership? Loose scheduling consortium? Bicoastal arrangement?

They likely won’t have to pick one that works, as sources indicated on Thursday that there’s little chance of this happening in the form it is being discussed.

In what’s being discussed, the leagues would keep their form. And they would be bonded together through the power of large quantities of television inventory and the occasional sexy cross-country football matchup between, say, Miami and Oregon. (Sorry, Mario Cristobal.)

How creative can the leagues get? One idea being discussed, per sources, is a four-day in-season basketball tournament between the leagues as a way to drive up value. Perhaps there’s some football scheduling creativity? It sounds fun, but not all that lucrative.

The real play here is geography and quantity, as ESPN already owns all of the ACC rights through 2036 and would benefit from a presence on the West Coast, in particular for Saturday night football inventory.

But no one should hail this potential partnership as some sort of financial haymaker, especially for the high-end ACC schools worried about falling way behind the SEC and Big Ten. It’s novel, but unlikely to be a game-changer.

One of the appeals to the Big Ten going into Southern California was turning millions of television homes into “inner market,” which should command a significantly higher fee for the Big Ten Network. But that isn’t expected to be the case for the ACC Network in this arrangement, as the Pac-12 schools aren’t going to be recognized as actual ACC schools. Therefore, no significant financial bump.

“It’s really hard unless they’re going out and getting those schools to flat-out join the conference,” said an industry source. “Absent institutions coming in individually to the ACC or a flat-out merger, the value created would be marginal.”

So how much value could be created? How much would the Pac-12, whose TV deal is coming to market after the 2023 football season, command on its own? And would schools in the ACC already worried about cash flow compared to the SEC and Big Ten find enough value in the arrangement? It’s hard to find where the significant money would be.

That’s where there’s some bottom-line skepticism. The numbers are supposed to be floated by the schools next week. And the notion, at the least, gave everyone in conference offices a breath from the dizzying game of Realignment Risk.

“It’s early, and schools are curious to what the finances would indicate,” said a source familiar with the talks. “Is the lift significant enough for ACC schools to close some of the gap with the SEC and Big Ten?”

Skepticism would be the obvious position on this potential arrangement, without more exploration of fiscal upside.

What else could the ACC do?

The word merger has trended out of any conversations. That would involve a league giving up auto bids, a seat at the College Football Playoff table and some commissioner making millions giving up his job and endangering the dozens of employees in the conference office. Those appear to be untenable roadblocks.

If the number crunching on the ACC arrangement with the Pac-12 come back underwhelming financially — and that’s the expectation — things could potentially go from collegial to predatory in a number of directions.

Here’s the question that ACC commissioner Jim Phillips must answer through the context of this potential move. The ACC already has a large amount of low-wattage inventory in football schools like Syracuse, Boston College and Duke. Why take on the Pac-12’s have-nots, too?

Would the ACC just be better off selectively poaching a few schools in major markets new to the ACC? That list could include Cincinnati, TCU, Houston, Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, Arizona State, Colorado and Oklahoma State? (Only Oklahoma State has a limited market, but it has a strong program.)

This would seemingly drive more revenue via more inventory, which could open up the current ACC deal and give a decent boost to the ACC schools crying poor compared to the Big Ten and SEC. The bonus here would seemingly be an ACC Network with juiced-up inner-market rates thanks to the addition of a flurry of high-population areas. Cable plays are always tricky, just ask former Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott. But the combination of better inventory and more ACC Network money would seemingly go a longer way pacify the high-end ACC members who are clamoring for unequal revenue share.

Ultimately, the ACC’s binding grant of rights running congruent to the television deal that expires in 2036 is seemingly going to take ugly and aggressive legal action for schools to escape from. No one appears likely to be the first to run to the courthouse.

Could that cause eventually lead to a recalibrated ACC that helps appease the concerns of the league bell cows?

What’s the Big 12 going to do?

The extent of the Big 12’s discussions with Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah were overstated in reports this week. But there’s certainly been back channel conversations and interest, as new commissioner Brett Yormark has followed through on his vow to be aggressive. A commissioner can only be as aggressive as his pocketbook, and that’s where the next step comes.

The Pac-12 has basically convinced the four schools being courted to slow down and see what the numbers look like on a potential ACC partnership before they make any decision. “Everyone is kind of waiting,” an industry source said.

If that proposed deal is as financially flimsy as expected, the Big 12 conversations with those four schools could heat back up. If one of those schools breaks away from the Pac-12 and commits to the Big 12, a domino effect could soon follow. And that domino of four schools could end up being six, with Oregon and Washington following for safe ground.

Hence the flurry of chatter this week about media consultants, who are common in conference television agreements. The Big 12 needs to sell schools on a robust financial future, and it has the option of pitching a short deal to the new members to see how it all works. Utah, Arizona, Arizona State and Colorado need to decide whether sticking with Oregon and Washington until they are eventually lured away or look east and build an identity facing that way.

The Big 12 is in the thick of those media rights projection conversations, or at least finding the folks to dig them up. It is exploring media consultants to run out the numbers on what the league’s television deal could look like after it expires following the 2024 football season.

With the landscape so volatile and with so many unknowns around streaming, there’s inherent ambiguity on where the Big 12 numbers could end up that far out. Ultimately, the Big 12 is going to get some projections, and so will the ACC/Pac-12. (The Pac-12 is also running numbers about staying at 10 or adding schools, too.)

Essentially, a spreadsheet is going to point to the future. And for the Big 12, the valuations can help fuel the league’s aggression.

Is Notre Dame going to make a move?

Any chatter about the Big Ten making more moves in this cycle quiets by the day. The clear target for the league remains Notre Dame, but the urgency and interest in any imminent arrangement doesn’t appear to be reciprocal.

Notre Dame still has a chance at a blockbuster television deal on its own when its NBC deal expires in 2025, as the Irish are attractive to streaming services because they offer a boutique product without all the bulbous inventory that comes with conference packages. In other words, a nimble streaming service could park a truck in South Bend for six home games instead of being saddled with a lot of Oregon State vs. Utah basketball games on a Tuesday night. (Also, NBC/Peacock could get a piece of the Big Ten and package that with Notre Dame for a day of strong football.)

“They don’t need them,” said an industry source of Notre Dame and the courtship by the Big Ten. “The market is going to be very vibrant for Notre Dame. They’re going to do very well or extremely well.”

The only obvious lever for Notre Dame remains playoff access, and it’s harder to envision the SEC and Big Ten shutting them out.

One interesting nugget is that if Notre Dame does eventually go to the Big Ten — and with consolidation all the rage, that day may come at some point — it would need to do so with a partner. Notre Dame would prefer that partner be Stanford, which it has scheduled an annual game with since 1997. They are synchronized in educational missions and Stanford poses less of a recruiting threat to the Los Angeles schools than Oregon or Washington.

Notre Dame would need to be forced to the Big Ten by a restricted television market or by getting squeezed out of the playoff, and it’s important to remember that Notre Dame doesn’t like being pushed around or told what to do.

The day may come when Notre Dame joins a league, but that day doesn’t appear imminent.

Has this changed the future of the College Football Playoff?

A lot has changed in the world of college football since SEC commissioner Greg Sankey, outgoing Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby, Mountain West commissioner Craig Thompson and Notre Dame AD Jack Swarbrick began exploring the options in June 2019. That process eventually yielded the 12-team model that got shot down last year. (This exploration happened because Penn State president Eric Barron and Washington State’s Kirk Schulz pushed for it, and those leagues got in the way of it happening.)

Oklahoma and Texas have announced they are heading to the SEC, college athletics have essentially become professionalized via NIL and USC and UCLA have declared they are headed to the Big Ten. Amid that time, an alliance between the Pac-12, Big Ten and ACC formed and then crumbled as Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren left his co-alliance founders bumbling for answers and those other leagues — the ACC and Pac-12 — scrambling to secure their futures.

In retrospect, those who voted against or provided obstacles to the 12-team playoff left their leagues vulnerable. And amid the sport recalibrating, where will it all land the next time the group gets together and discusses options? Remember, this time there doesn’t need to be unanimous approval for the next iteration of the College Football Playoff.

But after all that, what’s the most likely model to replace the current four-team version when it expires after four more seasons? Probably still a 12-team playoff. But there needs to be some clarity on what leagues look like to determine who deserves what’s essentially an automatic bid. The CFP plan that got shot down was the best six conference champions and six at large schools. Could that number be reduced to the five best champs with seven at large schools to appease the Power 2 leagues? That neighborhood feels right, but there’s a lot of time left for change.

Could a 16-team model get more discussion? That would provide 15 games of inventory, which would be appealing to get chopped up among major networks and potential streamers. This would still have a long way to go, but the ample amount of at large schools — think 10 or 11 — would be of interest to the Power 2. So far, it’s only been talk and with any playoff expansion so far out, CFP brass haven’t even met to discuss plans in detail. “People have chattered about 16 teams, but it’s nowhere near a groundswell,” said an industry source.

One drawback to 16 teams would be the amount of games players would be asked to suit up for, and one certainty is that no power conference will give up their league title game for the playoff. Even though those games could decline in relevance with an expanded CFP, they are too valuable monetarily to sacrifice and already baked into contracts.

Don’t expect any decisions soon, as there’s really two years before a plan needs to be in place.