Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com sees a shift of power to the AFC, freeing things up for the Buccaneers:

The trade that sent receiver Julio Jones from Atlanta to Tennessee makes the Titans better. It also makes the top of the AFC more competitive. In turn, the Buccaneers won’t have to deal with Jones twice this year as a member of the Falcons.

It underscores the reality that the AFC — with the Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Titans, Steelers, and Colts (not to mention an improved Patriots team) — has plenty of great teams and that the NFC, frankly, doesn’t. After the Buccaneers, which team is the best in the NFC?

The Rams? The Packers? The 49ers, if healthy. Maybe the Seahawks. Frankly, the Bucs should be worried about Washington, given the potency of the pass rush and the traditional struggles Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady has had when facing intense pressure, especially up the middle.

But it’s not like the AFC. Whoever wins the Lamar Hunt Trophy will be either battle hardened or beaten to hell and back. For the Chiefs last year, it was the latter and it contributed to the loss in Super Bowl LV.

While it won’t be easy for Tampa Bay to become the first team in seventeen years to repeat, it won’t be nearly as hard to get to the Super Bowl as it would have been if they were still in the conference to which they were assigned for 1976, their first NFL season.

We think Florio oversells the Steelers on his list.  We think they have less going for them than the Cowboys and maybe, the Cardinals.  On the other hand, he doesn’t include the Dolphins and Chargers – and they are both on the rise.

NFC NORTH

DETROIT

The Lions coaching staff has complied.  Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press:

The Detroit Lions have reached 100% vaccination among their coaching staff.

Head coach Dan Campbell made that revelation Thursday, on the final day of mandatory minicamp.

Two Lions assistants, running backs coach/assistant head coach Duce Staley and receivers coach Antwaan Randle El, have been wearing masks at practice this week. Campbell said both are fully vaccinated, but still are in the 14-day post-vaccination period where they must remain masked.

Detroit Lions running back D’Andre Swift (32) and assistant coach Duce Staley during organized team activities at Lions headquarters in Allen Park, Thursday, May 27, 2021.

“Everybody is vaccinated,” Campbell said. “So that’s all good.”

While NFL players have the option of getting vaccinated, NFL Network reported that all coaches and trainers must be vaccinated in order to retain Tier 1 status that allows them to interact in-person with players.

As of last week, coaches from at least four teams were refusing vaccinations, according to NFL Network.

NFC EAST

WASHINGTON

Although QB RYAN FITZPATRICK is the first among equals, Coach Ron Rivera declares an “open competition” for the starting QB position.

Washington Football Team coach Ron Rivera learned a lesson last summer, one he doesn’t want to repeat. That’s why there will be a quarterback competition, he said, even if Ryan Fitzpatrick will enter training camp with a firm grip on the starting job.

Ever since Washington signed Fitzpatrick in free agency, Rivera has said he would enter camp as the starter — but nothing beyond that is guaranteed. That means a player such as Taylor Heinicke could emerge if Fitzpatrick struggles. Washington also has Kyle Allen, who practiced this spring but admitted he wasn’t fully recovered from a broken ankle last season, and Steven Montez.

Fitzpatrick worked exclusively with the starters this spring while Heinicke was the primary backup, though Allen would sometimes work with the second unit as well.

“It’s going to be a good competition,” Rivera said Thursday. “I look forward to it. It’s going to push our football team and make our football team better. I just feel that going into this knowing we have a proven guy there that has the ability to lead us, but again, we have a guy in Taylor that shows us he can do it. They are going to compete, they are going to push, and I’m looking forward to it.”

Last summer, then second-year quarterback Dwayne Haskins worked exclusively with the starters. Rivera said he wanted Haskins to get as much time with that group as possible, knowing there were no preseason games. In mid-August he officially named Haskins the starter, though in truth there was never a doubt.

Although the coaches were pleased with how Haskins worked in the offseason, they did not see carryover into the regular season and benched him after four games. Allen replaced Haskins, but a broken ankle in his fourth start ended his season. Rivera has often expressed confidence in Allen.

Rivera has said a couple of times that, in hindsight, he wished he had handled last summer differently — even if it was a unique camp because of the circumstances related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

“The mistake I made was that my approach was wrong,” Rivera said. “I should have made as big a competition as possible, and that’s on me. I wanted to try and find a guy. I thought [Haskins] was ready to take a step and take every opportunity. I try to build that rapport he needed with his teammates, and that would have been something we may have been able to see sooner and could have done something different, perhaps.”

Players and coaches have thus far raved about Fitzpatrick, who has made 146 career starts compared with Heinicke’s two and Allen’s 17. Fitzpatrick has thrown 223 touchdown passes and 169 interceptions. Heinicke’s lone start last season came in a 31-23 playoff loss to Tampa Bay in which he threw for 306 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception and scrambled for another score.

Heinicke won over a number of players, including receiver Terry McLaurin and defensive end Chase Young. He also added 15 pounds of bulk in the offseason, hoping to improve his biggest weakness: durability. He has been hurt in both career starts.

While Fitzpatrick will get the bulk of the first-team reps, Rivera said the team will give others a chance with the starters — in part so in case they must play in September, they will have experience with this group.

“You try to create situations that are going to be as gamelike as possible,” Rivera said. “You want to be able to rotate guys so that everybody gets an opportunity to work with the same group of players. You try to create that energy for guys stepping on the field knowing that they are working with the ones [first-teamers]. That’s one of the things we’ve done in the past that shows how you find out about players.”

They’ll also have three preseason games in which to rotate quarterbacks. That’s something they didn’t have last summer, but Rivera said he needed to handle the situation differently to learn more about the players. That mistake, he said, won’t be repeated.

“I think it would have given us a better idea as to what we had to focus on,” Rivera said. “What we had to hone up, how we need to approach it with our players and position guys. I think that’s the thing we missed was not having an understanding and feel.”

NFC SOUTH

NEW ORLEANS

Jason LaCanfora of CBSSports.com is starting to think the unthinkable – that QB JAMEIS WINSTON might be an improvement over Drew Brees (circa 2020).

I’m not entirely sure what to make of the New Orleans Saints. Sure, Drew Brees is gone, but Brees has been on the decline for a while and in some instances seemed to perhaps be holding the scope of the offense back.

But, then again, it’s Drew bleepin’ Brees and he is one of the most accomplished and prolific passers in NFL history and he won’t be in that huddle anymore. That requires a unique transition and the loss of such a profound leader can be difficult to overcome. … Then you watch some film of Jameis Winston and that big arm, and recall how ever-so-willing he is to push the ball downfield (to a fault). And, Winston did have a year to marinate in this offense and take it all in and grow from that experience. And the dude did lead the league in passing two years ago.

How do you size all of this up?

The Saints have too much talent to be lumped in with the clearly rebuilding franchises, to say nothing of their recent playoff pedigree. They have game-changers, still very much in their prime, on both sides of the ball and one of the most innovative head coaches in the league in Sean Payton. The 2006 NFL Coach of the Year has already displayed that he can implement multiple offenses and concepts at the same time and toggle between the skillset of his quarterbacks, as he did increasingly with Taysom Hill as injuries caught up with Brees in recent years.

Is it possible the Saints actually make serious gains in terms of the offense expanding to all quadrants of the field in 2021? With a more normal(ish) offseason and training camp, could the offense expand in some capacities with Winston handling most of the duties (as I expect to be the outcome of their summer competition)? And, sure, they might expand significantly in interceptions because of a more daring style of attack, with Winston a turnover machine to this point, but I also find myself as intrigued to see this unit develop as I am of any in the NFL. (With Dennis Allen still running the defense, they have a robust template on that side of the ball to stick to.)

I just can’t help but wonder if there is a sweet spot for Winston somewhere between the no-risk-it-no-biscuit, let-it-all-hang-out style of play he displayed under Bruce Arians in his final year in Tampa and the far more tepid, tempo-based short-passing game the Saints adopted in the final years of Brees’ career

In 2020, Brees was 14th in yards per attempt (7.54). Just 17 of his attempts traveled 15 yards or more, putting him 28th in the league. Just 28% of his passes went 10 yards or more, putting Brees 30th in the NFL, tucked between Tua Tagovailoa and Nick Mullins (yuck). Meanwhile, a staggering 24.2% of all of Brees’s passes were at or behind the line of scrimmage, 29th in the NFL and in the same territory of at-the-end quarterbacks Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger.

Over the last three years, Winston was behind only Aaron Rodgers in terms of percentage of his attempts going 20 yards or more in the air (Winston at 15.1% and Rodgers at 15.5%), while Brees ranks 38th at just 8% (just ahead of Cam Newton at 8.5%). Quite a dichotomy!

Now, Winston has thrown an interception on a staggering 8.5% of those passes over 20 yards (34th over the past three years), while Brees threw a pick on just 3% of those throws (third best the past three years). Winston never had the kind of run game and screen game that the Saints feature when he was in Tampa, nor did he have as good of a defense. Payton won’t have to approach games the way Arians did with Winston, though he knows he has a more willing and able vessel at the helm when they do air it out.

Regardless, this change of QB continues to fascinate me, especially when we see how Payton designs his attack and calls his plays with his next signal-caller. This QB battle could be one of the most significant developments in the NFC, and a crucial factor as to how the playoffs shake out in that conference.

NFC WEST

ARIZONA

Is CB ROBERT ALFORD a sneaky “addition” for the 2021 Cardinals?  Josh Alper ofProFootballTalk.com:

Cornerback Robert Alford signed with the Cardinals in 2019, but the team has yet to see him take part in a game.

Alford broke his leg in his first Arizona training camp and tore his pectoral in the second, so it wouldn’t have been a big surprise if the Cardinals decided to move on without him this year. They did release Alford to save cap space, but re-signed him at the veteran’s minimum a short time later.

Head coach Kliff Kingsbury said that Alford said he’d “come back for whatever deal because I owe the organization” and Alford expressed the same to reporters on Thursday.

“I had to come back here,” Alford said, via the team’s website. “I had something to prove. . . . I’m not ready to hang it up at all. You’re always going to have dark times in anything that you do. If you love what you do, you’re going to use that to motivate you, and that’s what I’ve done with these last two years.”

When Alford first signed in Arizona, the plan was for him to complement Patrick Peterson. If he can finally stay healthy, he’ll take his first snaps as part of the plan to replace him.

SEATTLE

QB RUSSELL WILSON wants us to believe that all the stories about his wanting a trade from the Seahawks were all totally Fake News.  Charean Williams ofProFootballTalk.com:

Star quarterback Russell Wilson said Thursday he is fully committed to the Seahawks. He insists he never requested a trade from Seattle, even though his agent publicly provided a list of four teams — the Bears, Cowboys, Raiders and Saints — for whom Wilson would waive his no-trade clause.

“I think first of all, you know obviously I love Seattle. I love playing here,” Wilson said. “I’ve had a great career here so far. I’ve always wanted to play here for my whole career, obviously. I think there were some unfortunate frustrations after the season. Obviously you want to win it all and do it all, and do everything you can. I think everybody on our team does. We all want to win it. I think, unfortunately, it got a little bit blown out of proportion. I think that my ultimate goal is to win. You know I get paid to win . . . and we’ve done a lot of that over the years. The mission is to continue to do the same, but do a little bit more. I think the reality is that that’s the only thing I’m focused on is winning and doing whatever it takes to win. That’s why I wake up every day and lace my cleats to train every day. That’s what my teammates are doing, too, and so that’s what I’m looking forward to.

“In terms of the trade talks, I think anytime you play professional sports, there’s always a possibility of something happening, right? I think that’s just the reality. I think that there’s a lot of teams out there that people were saying that I was going to, or would go, that I requested a trade. I did not request a trade. I’ve always wanted to play here. The reality is I think calls were getting thrown around and this and that, and I mean that’s just a reality. But I think at the end of the day the real reality is I’m here and I’m here to win. I’m here to win at all.”

Wilson said he had great conversations with coach Pete Carroll and General Manager John Schneider after publicly expressing frustration after the season.

The team’s postseason failures surely have driven the discontent. Since back-to-back Super Bowl appearances in 2013-14, the Seahawks are only 3-5 in the playoffs since 2015, failing to get beyond the divisional round.

Wilson mentioned several times in his Thursday press conference his plans were to bring another Lombardi Trophy — or more — back to Seattle.

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE

TE MARK ANDREWS could be close to an extension.  Ryan Mink of the Baltimore Sun:

Ravens tight end Mark Andrews watched good friend Orlando Brown Jr. land elsewhere this offseason. Andrews doesn’t plan to have the same fate.

Andrews is entering the fourth and final year of his rookie contract, and he’s seeking an extension that will place him among the top-paid at his position.

While Brown was boxed out by his desire to play left tackle, Andrews is very much in the Ravens’ long-term plans. Both were third-round picks in 2018 and Andrews intends to be in Baltimore for a while.

“I love Baltimore. I love being here, I love playing here,” Andrews said after Tuesday’s OTA practice, where he had a strong day. “I want to be here for the rest of my life; this is home for me. That’s where I’m at. I want to be the best player for this team.”

Andrews said he’s concentrating on building chemistry within the Ravens’ upgraded offense, not his contract.

“You can’t worry about too much about the outside noise and what happens with that,” he said. “I’m just going to let my play speak for itself.”

The 2019 Pro Bowler has been Lamar Jackson’s go-to target. He’s the Ravens’ leader in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns over the past two seasons.

Andrews posted a team-high 64 catches for 852 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2019. He followed it up with 58 grabs for 701 yards and seven scores last season.

Andrews has caught more touchdowns (17) than any tight end in the league the past two years – ahead of the Chiefs’ Travis Kelce, 49ers’ George Kittle and Raiders’ Darren Waller. Where Andrews ranks among that group and others is up for debate, but there’s no doubt he’s in the upper echelon.

In early March, General Manager Eric DeCosta said he’d held “some preliminary discussions” with Andrews about a contract extension.

“Mark is a very good player,” DeCosta said. “I love everything about Mark – his personality, his ability, his work ethic, demeanor [and] competitiveness. He has a great family, and again, he’s the type of guy we want to keep.”

Andrews did not attend the Ravens’ first week of OTAs because he wanted to attend his sister’s graduation from dental school. He came the past two weeks and has impressed Head Coach John Harbaugh.

AFC SOUTH

TENNESSEE

WR JULIO JONES professes not to care how many passes he catches for the 2021 Titans.  Turron Davenport of ESPN.com:

Titans wide receiver Julio Jones has already made a positive first impression with his new team.

Jones averaged 9.85 targets per game over the 134 starts he made for the Atlanta Falcons. It’s highly unlikely that he will see the same volume of passes come his way with the Titans, but that doesn’t bother him.

“At the end of the day, you want to create a winning culture. However you need to do it, you have to get the job done. My whole career, I’ve never been a stat guy. I’m a team guy. Whatever they need from me I’m going to do, and I will enjoy playing my role at a high level,” Jones said on his first Zoom news conference with the media.

Even though he has “never been a stat guy,” Jones has posted some eye-popping numbers over his 10-year career. Jones’ career totals of 848 receptions, 12,896 yards and 60 touchdowns are already Hall of Fame-worthy.

Coming to the Titans is likely to give Jones an opportunity to add to his three career 100-plus-reception seasons. But it also will give him a chance to win. That was the primary selling point general manager Jon Robinson used when he spoke with Jones about the adjustment to Tennessee’s scheme, which revolves around All-Pro running back Derrick Henry.

“In my discussion with Julio, his No. 1 goal wasn’t about targets. His goal is to win, whether it takes nine targets, two targets or none. That’s the mindset that he has and the mindset that we want here,” Robinson said.

Added coach Mike Vrabel, “We have expectations here, and we’re going to treat any player the same way they treat the team. That’s no different for Julio or for Racey McMath. That’s what we believe in. We try to make our expectations here clear and be direct with the players and get them to understand the way that we do things.”

Titans coordinator Todd Downing aims to maximize offense, not fill Arthur Smith’s shoes

Henry is a big part of the offense, and that’s not going to change, according to Robinson. The 6-foot-3, 247-pound back has carried the football an NFL-high 381 times over the past two seasons. As a result, the Titans have faced eight-man fronts on 23% of their snaps, according to ESPN Stats & Information data. That’s more often than any other team in the league.

The focus on stopping the rushing attack will give the Titans’ receivers more opportunities to face single coverage. Henry rushed for 2,027 yards last year. Yet A.J. Brown finished with 1,075 receiving yards and Corey Davis checked in with 984 yards.

Inserting Jones into the lineup gives Tennessee a more threatening game-changer alongside Brown in the passing game. Jones said teams will have to “pick their poison” when trying to defend the Titans’ offense. Asking defensive backs to cover Jones or Brown without any help is a tall order.

Although Jones is 32 years old and coming off of an injury, he has a special message for those who are doubting him.

“Stay tuned,” he said.

THIS AND THAT

NFC BREAKOUT CANDIDATES

From Patrik Walker of CBSSports.com:

With OTAs wrapping up around the NFL and training camp only a few weeks away, let’s take a look at each NFC team and who has a great chance of stealing headlines while no one’s looking. Remember these names, because you’ll see several — if not all — of them do something special a few months from now.

Cowboys: Randy Gregory, DE

Some get knocked off of their path and give up on trying to finish the journey. That’s never been the case with Randy Gregory, who fought to return to the NFL in 2020 and was again met with adversity, this time from within the defensive coaching staff — one that saw his coordinator and D-line coach refuse to unleash him fully as he and Jerry Jones had hoped. With coaching changes again made, Gregory is essentially the starter opposite DeMarcus Lawrence, setting him up to finally be what the Cowboys wanted when they used a second-round pick on him. Revisions to the CBA also help pave the way for a matured, focused and serene Gregory, who has already become a favorite of Mike McCarthy — who named him a “primary, premier” player for the Cowboys in 2021 — and new coordinator Dan Quinn (who’s had interest in coaching him since Gregory was at Nebraska). Toss in a contract year in 2021 and Gregory is basically standing in a pool of gasoline while holding a lit match in his teeth.

Packers: Jordan Love, QB

OK, I’ll admit this is very tongue-in-cheek, but I’d be remiss if I ignored the fact Aaron Rodgers was absent from mandatory minicamp and appears dug in on never taking another snap in Green Bay. That means, unless he budges, it’s the Jordan Love show in 2021, and while the verdict is out on if Love can be a franchise QB in the NFL, he’s getting the offseason reps and has weapons like Davante Adams and Aaron Jones to help set him up for success. So maybe he’ll surprise with Matt LaFleur molding him, and maybe he won’t, but he’s clearly facing a mountain of doubters in a situation wherein he’s also potentially trying to replace a legend; and there are few on this list who are between this same rock and a hard place. The Packers are hoping that rock is a diamond, though.

Buccaneers: Scott Miller, WR

With so many starters returning in 2021 to defend the championship earned in Super LV, it’s not easy figuring out who might break out for the Buccaneers this coming season, but Scott(y) Miller definitely fits the bill. A sixth-round pick in 2019, Miller was tasked with sharing the load with talent like Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski, Chris Godwin and more. He was still able to carve out a niche for himself en route to producing 501 receiving yards with three touchdowns — a 300-yard increase in production over his rookie season. It’s unknown what will happen with Godwin in contract talks, but it feels like Miller takes the next step and makes the Bucs think that much harder before handing Godwin a multiyear deal.

Vikings: Irv Smith Jr., TE

To this point, the tight end position in Minnesota has gone mostly through Kyle Rudolph, but no more. Rudolph has now taken his ball and signed on with the New York Giants, and it’s time for the Vikings to look for the next big thing at the position. That could very well be Smith, who has been quietly producing behind Rudolph the last two seasons. Having earned a national championship from his days with the Crimson Tide, Smith is no stranger to the bright lights and that’s what led the Vikings to use a second-round pick on him — for this very moment. He’s produced 676 receiving yards and seven touchdowns in his first two NFL seasons with 14 starts under his belt, but it’s expected he’ll blow past both of those marks in 2021. Pencil him in as TE1 in Minnesota, and for a potential breakout season in complement to Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen.

Saints: Tre’Quan Smith, WR

You’ll often hear about offensive superstars like Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara in New Orleans, and rightfully so, but it feels like Smith is entering 2021 with a whole lot to prove and the talent to do it. A former third-round pick of the Saints in 2018, there’s no fifth-year option for Smith, and that means he’s walking right into a contract year. That’s more than enough motivation to continue improving has he has been, bounding back from a bout with injury in 2019 to post his second season with more than 400 yards receiving to go along with four TDs (14 total in three seasons). His ability to break out will largely be predicated upon the abilities of Jameis Winston and/or Taysom Hill and/or Ian Book, but with no more interference from veteran free agent signings, the stage is set.

Falcons: Hayden Hurst, TE

How can a former first-round pick fly under the radar? Easy, when he’s on the same team as a rookie fourth overall pick who happens to play the same position. Thus is the situation with Hurst and the Falcons, after the team traded away Julio Jones and welcomed in collegiate phenom Kyle Pitts — a player who has what many to believe to be generational talent. Hurst isn’t exactly a throwaway though, having become a key offensive piece in 2020, when he grabbed 571 receiving yards and six touchdowns. Now in Year 4 of his rookie deal, he’s not naive to what lies before him in order to secure big money from either the Falcons or another club in free agency to come in 2022, considering Atlanta declined to exercise his fifth-year option. A very talented offensive weapon, if he gets the targets that will allow him to have a breakout season, he will do just that: break out.

Seahawks: Poona Ford, NT

It’s known what Ford means to the Seahawks on the defensive interior, but two things here: It’s not well-known outside of Seattle and he has not reached his full potential yet. To climb the ranks from an undrafted talent in 2018 to starter shows what he’s capable of, but business is about to pick up in a major way, presumably. Ford was entering the final year of his rookie deal before getting a two-year extension from the Seahawks. It’s not a big-money deal, however, nor does it provide the long-term security he’s ultimately chasing, and Ford wants nothing more than to use this extra time to both cash in soon and to prove to every NFL team he should’ve never gone undrafted in the first place — two very powerful motivators for any NFL player. Having started every game for Seattle last season, he’s prepped for a level up.

49ers: Brandon Aiyuk, WR

There’s been a ton of talk about who’ll be throwing the ball in San Francisco, and rightfully so, but be it Jimmy Garoppolo now and Trey Lance later or Trey Lance now and Jimmy Garoppolo never again — Brandon Aiyuk is one hell of a talent on the receiving end of those throws. A former first-round pick himself in 2020, Aiyuk made his presence felt in an otherwise disappointing 49ers season ravaged by injury. He started 11 times in 12 games and was on pace to scrape the 1,000-yard mark (996) had he been on the field for the complete 16-game slate. The fact he gave the 49ers five touchdowns and 748 yards hints at what he’ll be able to do in Year 2, once the team gets their QB situation sorted out. Having Deebo Samuel play opposite him only helps Aiyuk’s odds of doing damage.

Cardinals: Chase Edmonds, RB

It’s “now or never” for Edmonds, in his own words. The Cardinals added James Conner in free agency and that’s a message if you’ve ever seen one. Of course, it can be spun as Arizona hoping to create a dynamic twofer at the RB position, but Edmonds is smartly not putting his feet up on that assumption. He’s entering a contract season and if he doesn’t make a major impact on the outcome of the 2021 season, he may be elsewhere in 2022. The former fourth-round pick was expected to take a leap last season and statistically did — in rushing yards and more than doubled his yards from scrimmage to go along with five touchdowns — proving he can be a threat as both a running back and receiving threat out of the backfield. All he has to do now is send the Cardinals a message, one that says he’s too valuable to let walk one year from now.

Rams: Cam Akers, RB

Speaking of a split backfield, there’s one in Los Angeles as well, with Akers sharing the load with Darrell Henderson. The latter has been around a smidge longer, but Akers wasted no time putting his stamp on the RB unit. The former second-round pick (2020) hit the ground running (literally) with 625 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns — 748 yards and three TDs from scrimmage on the whole. He led the team in rushing by narrowly edging out Henderson and while both expect to carry their roles into 2021, Akers could potentially take the next step as a receiver out of the backfield when Matthew Stafford begins digging in. This spells good things for Akers this coming season, and likely Henderson as well, to be honest.

Washington: Taylor Heinicke, QB

Ryan Fitzpatrick is the starter in Washington, for now. It doesn’t feel like Ron Rivera is super over-the-moon about it at the moment, when you hear him step out of character and point at how having good weapons mean they don’t have to rely as much on the quarterback. What he’ll soon be reminded of is how untrue that statement is, and it’s not like Fitzpatrick hasn’t been in a situation wherein the guy behind him became the guy in front of him in the middle of a season. Heinicke is a fan favorite who did good things in the absence of Alex Smith (and Dwayne Haskins) last season, leading to a contractual re-up this offseason. Heinicke could very well overtake Fitzpatrick in 2021, and especially if Fitzpatrick has more turnovers than magic tricks. So don’t go forgetting about QB2 in Washington, because he might be QB1 before it’s all said and done.

Bears: Jaylon Johnson, CB

Choosing Justin Fields here would not only be the easy route to take, but he’s far from under-the-radar. Jaylon Johnson is, however, at least from the standpoint of the national limelight. The Bears gave Johnson the nod as their second-round pick in 2020 because they saw something in him, and the two-time First-team All-Pac 12 talent is flashing some serious potential. Did he have his rookie hiccups? Sure, but everyone does. Fact is, Johnson started in 13 games and although he didn’t grab his first NFL interception, he was always around the ball — his 15 pass break-ups providing evidence of that claim. Once two or three of those defensed passes become interceptions, possibly in 2021, the league will begin seeing how close he is to becoming a star cornerback for the Bears.

Giants: Dexter Lawrence, DE

Leonard Williams is secured and rookie linebacker Azeez Olujari is impressing in OTAs, but let’s not go overlooking Lawrence. This time two years ago, he was the first-round pick in New York, and he’s been starting since. That said, it’s fair to demand more from him, seeing as he has only 6.5 sacks in his first two seasons, but four of them landed in 2020 (nearly doubling his production as a rookie) which shows the needle on his potential is aimed due north. With Williams coming off of a breakout season, the presence of Olujari, Blake Martinez (and others) and a seemingly upgraded secondary, Lawrence should see room to impose his will upon opposing offenses more in Year 3. And if he wants the Giants to start considering picking up his fifth-year option, now’s the time to break out and make sure they do.

Panthers: Denzel Perryman, LB

Luke Kuechly isn’t walking out of that locker room for the Panthers anymore, so locating a worthy successor continues to be paramount for what their defense is trying to build under Matt Rhule. So while Rhule places his offensive bet on quarterback Sam Darnold, and while Darnold might have the breakout NFL season he’s been thirsting for — he’s not under the radar, is he? Perryman is though, and although he was signed to a two-year deal this offseason, that actually translates to a one-year deal with the Panthers having the option to move on in 2022. Perryman will do his best to keep that from happening, and has proven he can be a starter in the NFL (51 starts in 69 games played with 349 career tackles), and the 28-year-old is a good fit for Carolina at middle LB. Flanked by Shaq Thompson and Haason Reddick, this could be a highlight season for the former Charger.

Lions: D’Andre Swift, RB

Swift was a dynamo for a Georgia team that boasted a complement of dominant halfbacks, but he struggled to blow the roof off of Detroit in his rookie season. Staying available going forward will determine just how good he will be, but the potential is there in spades. Swift logged only four starts in Year 1 — a load shared with Adrian Peterson — but averaged 4.6 yards per carry en route to 521 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns. That’s not the only part of his game Jared Goff will enjoy though, because Swift is also a home run threat as a receiver out of the backfield, and finished last season with 878 total yards from scrimmage with 10 touchdowns. The RB room in Detroit is loaded with bodies and the team isn’t yet out on possibly adding another Georgia talent in Todd Gurley, but it’s Swift’s show, for all intents and purposes.

Eagles: Jalen Reagor, WR

Make no mistake about it, Reagor knows he didn’t have the year the Eagles expected from him when they used a first-round pick on him in 2020. To make matters worse, CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson (other rookie receivers selected in the first round last April) are coming off of breakout seasons, and the Eagles traded with the Cowboys this time around to get in position to select Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith. If that’s not pressure added to what was pre-existing, nothing is. Reagor wants nothing more than to be an impact player in Philadelphia and the presence of Smith might be more of an aid than a threat, along with the permanent change from Carson Wentz to Jalen Hurts — the latter seemingly having more chemistry with the offense as a whole. If Reagor and Hurts can get on the same page and stay on it in 2021, he could double his production in Year 2.

THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF

Massive expansion, to 12 teams, is coming to the College Football Playoff.

Here is a roundtable from ESPN.com on the subject:

Next week, the College Football Playoff management committee will consider a proposal to expand the CFP to 12 teams.

The proposal calls for the bracket to include the six highest-ranked conference champions and the six remaining highest-ranked teams as determined by the CFP selection committee.

So what happens now? First, the management committee would need to approve the plan. If it does, it goes to the board of managers, a group of 11 university presidents and chancellors. If they approve it, then the conference commissioners and Notre Dame AD Jack Swarbrick will spend the summer figuring out how to implement it.

“It’s the first step in a long process that won’t end before September,” CFP executive director Bill Hancock said.

But that doesn’t mean we can’t start talking about it now. So let’s break down what we know so far.

What’s the best part of the proposed 12-team CFP?

Chris Low: How cool would it have been to see Coastal Carolina or Cincinnati on the big stage last season? Both teams were legit but were never going to sniff a playoff berth in a four-team format. In a 12-team format, based on last year’s final College Football Playoff rankings, both teams would have made it. Interestingly enough, the Pac-12 would have been shut out.

Kyle Bonagura: The month of November. One of the biggest issues with the four-team playoff was that it became clear about two-thirds of the way through the season — with some exceptions — which teams were going to remain relevant. This format keeps many more teams in the mix deeper into the season, which will inevitably lead to more meaningful games. This will keep more fan bases invested for longer, which is overwhelmingly positive for the sport as a whole.

Mark Schlabach: If nothing else, an expanded playoff at least gives more programs a belief they can actually make it. No other sport has a playoff as exclusive as college football’s current system — only 3% of the 130 FBS teams make the four-team playoff and only 6% of the 65 Power 5 teams get to go. This at least gives teams other than Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, LSU, Ohio State and Oklahoma a legitimate chance to make it. An expanded playoff might not change the outcome — Alabama or Clemson is probably going to win more times than not — but it at least changes things up. The CFP has gotten pretty stale.

Harry Lyles Jr.: Looking through the lens of things we love about college football, home postseason games would have incredible atmospheres. Regular-season college football games already have some of the best environments in sports, and when you add more stakes to those, it would be incredible to watch.

Alex Scarborough: I’m still not sold that we actually needed more playoff games or that they will in any way change the outcome, but I’ll take the expansion if it means postseason games taking place on campuses. It’s that important. The worst thing about the playoff and bowl system has always been how it removes the energy of being on campus. So bring on an even more raucous Tiger Stadium or a White Out in Happy Valley.

David M. Hale: Since the first conversation about a playoff, there’s been hand-wringing over its impact on the regular season, but those conversations often have the issue backward. Too few teams in the playoff actually makes tons of otherwise good matchups irrelevant if neither team has a shot at being in the top four. Of course, expand too much and there’s risk of teams coasting into a playoff spot, too, but I don’t think 12 gets us there. Plus, with byes and on-campus home games at stake for higher seeds, it seems unlikely anyone’s going to be resting starters in November, even if a spot in the top 12 looks fairly certain. More playoff teams means more games that matter for the playoff, and that’s a good thing.

Which part are you most skeptical of?

Hale: This system really doesn’t address most of the biggest issues currently plaguing college football. The extra spots offer a lifeline to the Group of 5 and Pac-12, but the SEC and Big Ten likely will ultimately benefit more, if history is any indication. College football desperately needs to expand its geographic footprint, but if this system played out over the past seven years, half the bids would’ve gone to the SEC and Big Ten. We’re also potentially asking some teams to play as many as 17 games, which will surely provide a windfall for the schools, conferences and sport — but it also shines yet another huge spotlight on the inequities facing the players. And if you don’t like the committee’s haphazard approach now, well, just wait until its role gets tripled.

Dave Wilson: Will the selection committee have the guts to rank multiple Group of 5 teams in position to compete? Or will they still be afterthoughts pitted against powerhouses?

Bill Connelly: Depending on what adjustments are made to regular-season scheduling — and generally, when it comes to giving up potential revenue from any game, the answer is “we’re not adjusting anything” — this would indeed create a scenario in which a team plays up to 17 games in a season. It’s hard for me to justify this if we’re not making major moves on both name, image and likeness rights and the medical trust fund idea that administrators have kicked around. The former is going to happen in one form or another, but the latter still isn’t guaranteed. The latter needs to be guaranteed.

Andrea Adelson: I have been an expansion proponent, but moving from four to 12 teams will do absolutely nothing to alter who will actually have a chance to win a national championship. The same four to six teams will be in the top four nearly every year and will still have a huge advantage on everyone else. Oh sure, getting a Group of 5 team is “progress,” until you start calculating A) where they will most likely get ranked (outside the top eight), and B) what that means for running the table to a championship (not gonna happen). It’s like giving the Group of 5 teams a lollipop they’ve begged for, only to turn a corner and enter a Las Vegas-style buffet reserved only for the Power 5. You think griping about blowout semifinal games in the four-team playoff was bad? Just wait.

What’s your favorite what-if about a 12-team playoff since the CFP’s inception?

Wilson: Would the raging 2014 Baylor-TCU debate have given us possibly a rematch of their 61-58 regular-season classic?

Lyles: It might not necessarily be my favorite, but some recency bias that I’d love to have seen play out is the 2020 season with Cincinnati and Coastal Carolina. We all felt strong about those two even as Group of 5 teams, and it would be interesting to see how it would play out in such a format.

Low: A “national championship” matchup in the second round between Alabama and UCF in 2017 at Bryant-Denny Stadium. And then a national championship parade the next day.

Hale: UCF. 2017. Enough said.

Who’s the biggest winner in this proposal?

Lyles: The fans. I think most people are reasonable and realize that no matter the format, the best teams in college football are always going to be there in the end. But everybody loves a good tournament with at least the potential for upset. And if you’re a fan of a team that gets to host a game, that’s even better.

Low: The rich get richer. The SEC fared pretty well in the four-team CFP playoff and in the old two-team BCS system. In 14 of the last 15 years, an SEC team has either won or played for a national championship, and that includes five different teams. So just because the playoff field is expanding, that doesn’t mean the usual suspects won’t still be the ones winning the hardware, especially now that even more of those usual suspects will be in the field.

Hale: The biggest winners are the SEC and Big Ten, which should come as little surprise because … well, they’re always the biggest winners. Under the current system, the Big Ten had six playoff teams in seven years. If the new system had been in place, they’d have had 20. The SEC would’ve had 11 teams in the playoff in just the past three seasons. More playoff teams translates to more revenue and better recruiting for the two leagues that were already lapping the field in both categories.

Scarborough: The Pac-12 finally has a shot now …. right?

Connelly: Considering the answer could be both “the Group of 5” and “the SEC and Big Ten,” I have to say I’m extremely impressed with the political calibrations involved here.

Schlabach: I can tell you who the biggest losers are: the bowl games that aren’t part of the 12-team playoff. Most of those second- and third-tier bowl games were becoming irrelevant because of a four-team postseason and player opt-outs, and now many will have an even tougher road.

Adelson: One athletic director told me the SEC pushed the 12-team model, which makes sense because the SEC is the biggest winner — and it’s not even close.

So how will things look.  We took the 2023 schedule already published and played with a blend of four 2021 preseason rankings for a sample:

Friday, December 16              North Carolina #12 at Georgia #5

Saturday, December 17          Indiana #10 at Texas A&M #6

                                                USC #11 at Iowa State #7

                                                Notre Dame #9 at Cincinnati #8

Friday, December 29              UNC/Ga vs. Ohio State #4         Cotton Bowl

Saturday, December 30         ND/Cin vs. Alabama #1              Peach Bowl

                                                USC/Iowa St vs. Oklahoma #2   Fiesta Bowl

Monday, January 1                  Ind/TexAM vs. Clemson #3        Orange Bowl

Saturday, January 6                Ohio State-Alabama                   Rose Bowl

Monday, January 8                  Clemson-Oklahoma                   Sugar Bowl

Monday, January 15                 National Championship (Houston)

Notes on the above – Georgia was actually #4 in the composite rankings, but as a non-champion (we can see division champs, lost to Alabama, 38-28, in SEC title game) has to take a home playoff game with UNC)…USC was tied with Florida for the last spot, but they get in as the 5^th conference champion.  The Trojans would have been in at #13 or #14 or so on as the 5^th conference champion, squeezing out an at-large qualifier…LSU, Texas, Iowa are other teams that would be on the cusp…How great is it that there would be college playoff games at Ames, Iowa or Cincinnati…These rankings lucked out with all the games shaping up as inter-conference…That’s 3 SEC, 2 ACC, 2 Big Ten, 2 Big 12, 1 Pac-12, 1 Gang of 5 – and Notre Dame.

Of course, the above is based on preseason rankings which are anyone’s guess.  A total of 19 teams appear in the top 15 of the four rankings we used.

DB thoughts – The DB is not aware of any sport where the subjective opinion of a committee currently has so much to say about the champion.

With only four teams out of more than 100 candidates making the playoffs, the traditional brand of the school can’t help but have a lot to say about who gets in.  With so few touch points between conferences to compare, an Oklahoma is always going to get the edge over Utah or USC over Baylor.

Now, every Power 5 team can control its own destiny.  If you are Arizona State or Texas Tech or Northwestern or Pitt – win your division and go to the conference championship game.  Pull an upset and win the conference championship game and make the playoffs.  Win four games and you are the champion.  A tall order to be sure, but it is all on the field.

As it stands now, when Northwestern meets Ohio State in a Big Ten title game, there is so much at stake for conference officials in terms of playoff money that they can’t help but want (need?) Ohio State to win and make the playoffs.  If they lose, a 2^nd SEC team will steal the Big Ten’s spot, Northwestern (or Minnesota or Nebraska or…) won’t be rewarded.

The next inequity is to do away with the divisions.  The teams in the SEC West opposite Alabama have a harder row to hoe, same with the Big Ten teams with Ohio State and the ACC next to Clemson.  Play a mixed schedule and take the top two like the Big 12 so Michigan (now with an automatic loss to Ohio State) has as good a chance as Wisconsin or the other Western teams.

Here are some thoughts from Dennis Dodd of CBSSports.com:

As far as who is affected the most by this proposed CFP expansion, let’s take a look.

Winners

Group of Five: AAC commissioner Mike Aresco, who has lobbied so long and hard for his conference’s inclusion, was headed out to dinner Thursday night with his wife. He was asked facetiously if he was on his second bottle of champagne. “I may drink it straight out of the bottle,” Aresco said.

It’s time to celebrate for the Group of Five conferences. The AAC, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West and Sun Belt got what they always desired: a seat the table. Maybe more than one as the recommendation calls for the six highest-ranked conference champions (not specified to include the Power Five) plus six at-large teams in the field. That’s another way of saying, for the first time, the Group of Five will be guaranteed at least one opportunity to play for the national championship.

In fact, Group of Five could get multiple berths. That would have happened last year when No. 8 Cincinnati and No. 12 Coastal Carolina would have gotten into the field as conference champions ahead of No. 25 Oregon.

The commissioners had to know what they were doing. That possibility makes the model a slam dunk when the presidents consider it. The access “problem” that has existed for almost a quarter century in the BCS and CFP has been addressed. Major-college football has never done Cinderellas well. Can’t wait to see who fits the glass slipper first.

SEC: More chances for the Strength Everywhere Conference to increase its stranglehold on the sport. In an eight-team field, the SEC would likely have seen at least two teams each year. In a 12-team bracket, the possibilities are almost limitless. Adding up the berths over the last two seasons, the SEC would have seven of the 24 spots – 3.5 per year.

Coffers: They’ll be full — or fuller at FBS schools. Industry sources have estimated an expanded bracket to be worth two or three times more than the current $600 million annually. The question is whether ESPN is willing the tear up the current deal with five years to go on it and renegotiate for a 12-team field.

On the plus side, ESPN has exclusive negotiating rights at the moment. In five years, it could be rolling the dice with other networks streaming services in the mix bidding up the price. As mentioned, CFP executive director Bill Hancock said an expanded bracket won’t debut until at least 2023.

Campuses in December: They can be some of the dreariest places in academia. Everybody is either taking finals or home for the holidays. Now try to picture first-round playoff games in the snow at Camp Randall Stadium or walking down High Street packed to the gills in Columbus, Ohio, in second week of December.

For athletic directors and businesses, it’s going to be found money. Ticket revenue they never budgeted. Hotels that suddenly fill up. Here’s hoping Arizona State shoots up the charts. We’d love to have a first round game in Tempe during Christmas season.

Jerry Palm (and bracketologists everywhere): This makes their job more fun and more complicated. It increases a conversation that, at times, dies down late in the season when it becomes clear that certain teams will lock up spots. The field would create more intrigue as we see when projecting the NCAA Tournament. For grins, here is what the bracket would have looked like in 2019, the last full season to be played.

No. 12 Memphis at No. 5 Georgia (winner vs. No. 4 Oklahoma)

No. 11 Utah at No. 6 Oregon (winner vs. No. 3 Clemson)

No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 Baylor (winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State)

No. 9 Florida at No. 8 Wisconsin (winner vs. No. 1 LSU)

Conference championship games: They now become as close to first-round playoff games as can be. Automatic spots go to the top six conference champions with four of those getting first-round byes. The field is now big enough to absorb the losers of those games should there by monster upsets. Think of 8-4 Northwestern upsetting 11-1 Ohio State in 2018. It didn’t happen, but if it did, the Wildcats likely would have gotten one of those six bids. The Buckeyes would have been relegated to an at-large spot in the bottom six. Big picture: The sanctity of a conference championship will be enhanced.

Pac-12: A larger bracket, a better chance for the low-flying Pac-12 to participate. That’s something that’s been lacking on the Left Coast, which has missed five of the first seven playoffs. Some of the first words out of incoming commissioner George Kliavkoff’s mouth advocated for an expanded playoff. He got his wish, even if it means the playoff has to expand to include the Pac-12 instead of the Pac-12’s improvement getting it into the top four.

But it’s not guaranteed. Again, if you built out the 2020 bracket to 12, conference champion Oregon would have missed the field in lieu of Cincinnati and Coastal Carolina.

“The autonomy five conferences deserve an opportunity to compete in the CFP every year,” outgoing commissioner Larry Scott said. On his way out the door, he will get his wish.

Losers

Rose Bowl: The Granddaddy of Them All had to be brought kicking and screaming into the BCS era that transitioned into the CFP. The Rose had to basically give up its traditional Big Ten-Pac-12 matchup in years when the BCS/CFP was played in Pasadena, California. That was 23 years ago when the BCS was formed.

In a 12-team field with the quarterfinals being played on or around Jan. 1, the Rose is almost certain to lose more of that tradition. Think of a Rose Bowl quarterfinal hosting Notre Dame and Coastal Carolina. That could have happened last season if the expanded bracket was in place. (As mentioned, Pac-12 champion Oregon wouldn’t have made the field.)

It also takes the bowl itself out of contention to host a semifinal unless the Rose backs off its long-held refusal to move its date. The semifinals will be held later in January. The Rose already lost its ability to hold a national championship with the beginning of the CFP in 2014.

Sources are already indicating the Rose will be forced to give up its exclusivity because of the increased bracket size. Sorry, Rose, but it’s unlikely the Jan. 1, 2 p.m. PT time slot may not be guaranteed, either. (Along the sun setting over the San Gabriel Mountains.)  And if it’s part of a rotation of bowls, it’s entirely likely the Rose could get third choices from the Pac-12 and/or Big Ten in years it does not host a CFP game. The Granddaddy has never looked so fragile.

Notre Dame: Like basically everyone, Notre Dame has a better chance at the playoff. So it’s definitely not all bad for the Fighting Irish. However, because they operate as an independent, they can never finish in the top four (guaranteed to conference champions) and avoid the play-in game. That means, each and every year Notre Dame qualifies, it must win four straight games (16 total) to become national champions. And you thought the Fighting Irish had problems lately in the CFP (outscored 61-17 in their last two appearances)?

Will this caveat be enough to push Notre Dame into the ACC? Its media rights contract is structured so that, if it decides to join a conference at any point before 2036, it must be the ACC.

While Notre Dame has more access in a 12-team field, its road to a national championship just got a lot tougher. Even though athletic director Jack Swarbrick admits the Irish playing that additional game is more fair due to it not being forced to play in and win a conference championship game, it still puts his program at a disadvantage if it is otherwise deserving enough to be ranked in the top four. 

“I look forward to never hearing again that we played one less game or never played a conference championship,” said Swarbrick, whose program plays only 12 regular-season games before going to the postseason.

The bowl experience: The bowl system was already on shaky ground after COVID-19 forced several bowls to cancel last season. Now the CFP is going to take eight teams that would have been playing in bowls outside of the playoff. Will this force some bowls to shutter for good? The pecking order will drop a notch for several high-level bowls. Bowls that got the No. 2 team from a conference will suddenly get No. 3 or No. 4. There was already speculation that 42 bowls was too many. And if you thought opt outs were a problem before, they will be more of an issue.

The bowl experience will suffer, too. Sources indicate that, in a new 12-team playoff, teams will arrive in town a couple of days before the game. No trips to Disneyland, no playing on the beach, no steak feeds. Strictly a business trip. Think of a one-night stay to Tuscaloosa, Alabama. In and out. Your season is over. Sad.

Player safety: Something will have to be worked out with teams potentially playing 16 or even 17 games. That’s basically an NFL schedule for one-third of the field played by college athletes. The optics are already bad with Congress breathing down the neck of major college sports.

Yes, yes, the FCS has a 24-team playoff, but the quality of athlete, the pressures on future NFL careers, the health concerns are just enhanced in the FBS.

At first glance, the liability is huge. More games, more chance for injury. More chance for injury, more chance for catastrophic injury. By expanding the field, the CFP managers seem to be playing with fire.

When asked Thursday about safety, Swarbrick — the working group chair — said it’s not probable any of the conference champions seeded Nos. 5-12 in the first round would win out (and play 17 total games). That speaks more to access than excellence.

What’s likely: The CFP will either start or pay into some sort of medical assistance fund that aids college athletes.