The Daily Briefing Friday, June 23, 2023
THE DAILY BRIEFING
Although WR DeANDRE HOPKINS may have hoped a team high up the food chain like Buffalo or Kansas City would want his services, it looks like his choice is between middle of the pack Tennessee and New England. Tyler Rowland of FansNation:
The DeAndre Hopkins saga continues and likely will continue for multiple weeks, but we got another update on Thursday when ESPN’s Dianna Russini went on NFL Live and provided some insight into what Hopkins is doing right now.
According to Russini, Hopkins is “going over some offers” from the Titans and the Patriots. This indicates a few things that are important during this process. First, there appears to be only two true contenders for Hopkins as things stand now. Second, each team could have multiple contract options on the table.
It makes sense that the Titans would present multiple structures to Hopkins and give him the option of picking which suits him best. What could those different offers like like though?
Certainly, the Titans offered the “Odell Beckham Contract,” something I outlined on the site last week. This would be a one-year deal worth $15-17 million that most likely includes some incentives. This would give Hopkins a chance to hit the market again in 2024 as well.
This should appeal to Hopkins because it maximizes his earning potential. He can bet on himself to have another year up to his standards and then cash in in a major way in free agency next year. Hopkins hit free agency very late in the process this year and that likely hurt his ability to get the best deal.
The Titans also likely offered Hopkins a multi-year deal as well. Something with nearly $30-40 million and for a few seasons. That would provide Hopkins with some stability and security. He wouldn’t have to worry about changing teams and cities again in less than a year. Also allows him to invest more of himself into the team knowing he would be around more than 10 months.
The Patriots likely have taken the same route, but we won’t know all of the exact details until Hopkins chooses an offer. Typically, after the deal is done, we get an influx of behind the scenes information that should inform us more about the options each team presented.
Hopkins is expected to wait until near training camp at the end of July to choose his team. That is the smartest route for Hopkins as it allows more time for him to make a decision, more desperation to creep in for the teams and potentially more teams to jump in the race. Unfortunately, the Titans and their fans will have to wait patiently for a decision to be made.
This on the other big free agent out there – RB DALVIN COOK. He also appears heading to the AFC. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:
When free-agent running back Dalvin Cook last mentioned his aspirations in a new team, he said he wants to win a Super Bowl.
On Thursday, he was asked to name the teams he has spoken to that could make his objective a reality, during an appearance on SiriusXM NFL Radio. He mentioned two teams.
“You know, a lot of people got me pegged going back home [to the Dolphins],” Cook said. “A lot of people got me going to the Jets. It’s all over the place right now, but what’s gonna be important for me is just going to that right situation and helping somebody turn the page. I want to go and be the piece that can just help somebody win and get over the hump and whatever that situation comes with, if it comes with me taking less reps, but me being in the perfect situation to hold up that trophy, I don’t mind. I just wanna go somewhere I can just get the ball and just help somebody win, and turn the next page.”
He was asked specifically about the Miami roster and the other pieces they have on offense.
“Yeah, it’s an exciting situation to go into when you got guys that can stretch the field on the outside,” Cook said. I think that defense is pretty solid to me. Tua [Tagovailoa], when he’s out on the field, they got a winning a record. Like you said, as a running back you look for a certain scheme and I know the scheme that I’m good in, and that’s outside zone, and that’s what the Miami Dolphins run. So it’s like, you know, it’d be a perfect fit. And the roster, like you said, speaks for itself.”
Cook has spoken on at least three occasions since become a free agent. He doesn’t seem to be close to making a decision.
But he has time. Camps don’t open until late July. In fact, given the injury rate at the position, he could actually end up getting a better deal if he waits for someone to get injured — and for a team to become desperate.
NFC NORTH
CHICAGO
Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com has started his annual ranked previews – and not to question his conclusion – but isn’t it about time the Bears ranked higher than #30?
The Chicago Bears had the opportunity to hit the eject button on the Justin Fields era.
Chicago had the first overall selection of the NFL Draft, the first time since 1947 they held the top pick. The current Bears regime didn’t trade up to draft Fields in the first round of the 2021 draft. That was the old regime. There were times last season when the new regime put very little trust in Fields, though the subpar situation around him probably had something to do with that. And Bryce Young was a very good prospect atop the draft.
It would have been a bit extreme for the Bears to move on after the progress Fields made last season, and most analysts voiced that they’d stick with Fields, but it wouldn’t have been widely criticized if they traded Fields and picked Young. Some encouraged it. If the Bears wanted out, this was their opportunity.
As we know, the Bears stuck with Fields. They traded the first overall draft pick, which was the prudent move. For better or worse, they committed to Fields as their future.
Not many teams coming off a three-win season have much optimism, but the Bears do. Fields was electric at times late last season. The Bears found a new No. 1 receiver in a dry market, using the first overall pick of the draft to trade for DJ Moore and a bunch of selections. Chicago added to its defense and offensive line in free agency and the draft. The Bears’ win total at BetMGM is 7.5, which would be a five-win improvement if you like the over. As of mid-May, 85% of money bet on the Bears’ win total was on the over.
It seems like all the excitement might be coming a bit too fast. Even with the hype around Fields.
Fields had 1,143 rushing yards last season, coming up just short of Lamar Jackson’s QB record of 1,206. Fields showed athleticism at Ohio State but nothing indicated that kind of explosion was coming. It was a nice surprise. He was thrilling in some games, with some of the best highlight plays the NFL had last season. But Fields was nowhere near where he needs to be as a passer, even accounting for the poor situation around him.
Fields threw for just 2,242 yards in 15 games last season. He has 25 career starts and hasn’t reached 300 yards in any of them. He threw for more than 190 yards in a game just twice last season. Part of that was the Bears’ reluctance to have him pass the ball. Fields never had more than 28 attempts in a game last season, which is surprising for a 3-14 team that faced a lot of deficits. It also might be telling that the coaching staff was hesitant to let him throw the ball, even when game scripts dictated it.
All offseason, the Bears expressed confidence in the strides Fields made. Part of that was to deflect attention from the talk of them using the No. 1 pick on a quarterback. But if the Bears weren’t happy, they probably would have moved on.
“The results of it, the statistics that everyone’s looking for, those will come,” Bears offensive coordinator Luke Getsy said, via the Chicago Sun-Times. “And we know that.”
The situation around Fields is better. Moore and Chase Claypool, acquired in a trade with the Pittsburgh Steelers before last season’s deadline, are significant upgrades at receiver. The offensive line will be better with tackle Darnell Wright, the No. 10 overall pick of the draft, and guard Nate Davis, a free-agent addition. Presumably, the coaching staff will have more confidence in calling pass plays for their quarterback.
There’s still a lot of work to do overall. The defense was awful last season. Chicago was dead last in the NFL in passing yards last season, with a total of 2,598 that is shockingly low for this era. The Bears were slightly unlucky to win just three games, but they were clearly one of the worst teams in football.
The Bears are ready to make some strides. Their future will go as far as their young quarterback takes them.
Offseason grade
The Bears improved. But did they use their resources in the best possible way?
Chicago gave $72 million over four years to off-ball linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and backed that up with $19.5 million over three years to T.J. Edwards, another off-ball linebacker. That came after trading Roquan Smith last season, and Smith is better than Edmunds and Edwards. The defensive line, which needed much more help than linebacker did, gets a boost with DeMarcus Walker. However, Walker has never been a full-time starter and had just 12.5 sacks his first five NFL seasons before jumping to seven last season with the Tennessee Titans. Guard Nate Davis, signed from the Titans, will be an asset. Receiver DJ Moore, acquired in the trade for the No. 1 pick with the Carolina Panthers, was a huge get. Chicago lost David Montgomery but did sign D’Onta Foreman off a strong season with the Panthers, so that should be close to a wash. The Bears got better. It’s just worth wondering if they deserve all of the widespread plaudits for their offseason haul. The draft netted four top-64 picks — it probably should have been five but the Bears traded what became the 32nd pick of the draft for Chase Claypool — and offensive tackle Darnell Wright, defensive lineman Gervon Dexter, cornerback Tyrique Stevenson and defensive lineman Zacch Pickens should all help right away.
GRADE: B-
Quarterback report
Here are a few advanced stats that show Justin Fields has a long way to go as a passer. Fields was dead last among 33 qualified quarterbacks in adjusted yards per pass attempt last season, via Pro Football Reference. His percentage of on-target throws (71.1%) was tied for 28th among PFR’s 33 qualified QBs. Fields’ Pro Football Focus passing grade was 35th among the 39 QBs who had at least 170 dropbacks last season. Fields had the highest turnover-worthy play percentage (4.4%) among QBs with at least 400 dropbacks, per PFF. He was last, by a wide margin, in Football Outsiders’ DVOA per-play metric among QBs with at least 200 attempts. Fields has the skills to be a top passer and he has a much better supporting cast this season, but he was not good enough throwing the ball last season.
There’s no denying Fields’ talent though. The reason the Bears are sticking by him is he has the ability to make an NFC championship defense look bad.
BetMGM odds breakdown
My favorite NFL future bet on the board at BetMGM might be under 7.5 wins for the Bears. The under is even odds because most of the bets have come in on the over. I believe Justin Fields will be just fine as a passer and the Bears as a whole are better. But they didn’t do enough to overhaul the defense and there still should be some skepticism about Fields. They do have an easy schedule (sixth easiest this season, per Sharp Football Analysis which uses season win totals to determine strength of schedule) but adding five wins is too much for me. It’s an easy pick for the under.
Yahoo’s fantasy take
From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “Justin Fields checked in as the QB6 last year, on the strength of his athleticism and fearless rushing style. About 55% of his fantasy points came from his rushing yards and touchdowns, an unrealistic ratio for anyone to expect this season. Of course the Bears think they’ve finally given Fields ample receiving support, especially through the trade for DJ Moore. And a healthy Darnell Mooney could be an interesting sleeper, someone who will likely fall about seven rounds after Moore does.
“It’s important to recognize the gap between real-life and fantasy value, and Fields is one of the players who most symbolizes that gap. But if you’re going to pay the raised ADP freight on Fields this year — he’s currently being drafted around QB8 — you need to believe he’s ready to take a step forward as a passer in Year 3. I’ll probably be agnostic when it comes to Fields at the draft table, unlikely to target him at full ADP, but willing to swoop in if the market presents a value. Otherwise, I’ll take heart in the fact that quarterback remains a fairly deep fantasy position, presenting reasonable alternatives at almost any price point.”
Stat to remember
Here are some of the categories in which the Bears defense finished last in the NFL last season: points allowed, points per drive allowed, yards per passing play allowed, sacks, Football Outsiders’ DVOA. Matt Eberflus is a respected defensive coach but there wasn’t a lot of talent on that side of the ball. That should improve this season, though it’s debatable how much their investments at linebacker will turn things around. The only returning player who had more than three sacks last season is safety Jaquan Brisker, who led the team with four. When a safety leads your team in sacks, it’s usually a terrible sign. The Bears didn’t add much punch to the pass rush, in the draft or free agency. Nobody on the current Bears roster is a great bet to reach five sacks this season. The Bears have some young talent in the secondary, but it’s not a group that is good enough to hold up without help from the pass rush. If the Bears defense is better this season, it probably won’t be a huge improvement.
Burning question
How much can DJ Moore help the passing game?
Landing Moore was shrewd by the Bears. The Panthers probably didn’t want to give up a No. 1 receiver who just turned 26, but the Bears were smart to insist Moore was part of the deal for the top overall pick. Moore made an impression right away in offseason practices.
“The first thing I would say is speed,” Bears coach Matt Eberflus said, according to the team’s site. “I just saw that. I was like, ‘Wow, there’s a different gear there.'”
Moore is unquestionably talented. He was also held back by poor quarterback play in Carolina, but still managed three 1,000-yard seasons in five years with the Panthers. The Bears had to upgrade their pass catchers, and did. A top three at receiver of Moore, Chase Claypool and Darnell Mooney, along with tight end Cole Kmet, is good enough to have a plus passing game. Moore probably won’t put up huge numbers unless the Bears do a 180 on their run-heavy approach from last season, but he should be a much-needed asset for Justin Fields.
Best-case scenario
The betting market is pretty high on the Bears. Maybe it’s justified. Justin Fields had some moments last season in which he looked like a future star. It’s possible, with better players around him, he could improve in his third season like Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa did last season. If Fields makes that kind of leap, and the defense gets better in Matt Eberflus’ second season, perhaps the Bears are the team that shoots way up the standings. Maybe by the end of December, we’re talking about the Bears being in wild-card contention and Fields being an MVP candidate. It’s within the range of outcomes.
Nightmare scenario
This is a key season for Justin Fields. While the Bears aren’t the San Francisco 49ers when it comes to offensive supporting casts, they’re good enough that we should know what Fields is by the end of this season. And what if the answer is that he’s not good enough as a pocket passer to be a franchise quarterback? The Bears probably won’t lose enough games to land a top-two pick in the 2024 draft and a replacement for Fields either. The decision to stick with Fields and not U-turn to Bryce Young made complete sense at the time, but it could become a big regret.
The crystal ball says …
Some teams take off suddenly, going from the doldrums of the league to flirting with playoff contention in one season. I figure there will be a more incremental improvement with the Bears. They’ll be better this season. Justin Fields is going to make strides. Chicago will win more games. But playoff contention is still at least a year away.
GREEN BAY
The Packers are talking up QB JORDAN LOVE. Carmen Vitali of http://FoxSports.com:
Jordan Love can be better for the Green Bay Packers this season than Aaron Rodgers was in 2022.
At least, that’s what his teammates are saying after Green Bay’s offseason program.
“Jordan can do it,” said second-year receiver Romeo Doubs a few weeks ago. “When you go from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan, Aaron was a really great quarterback, but I believe Jordan can do the same exact thing. I don’t really see what’s the big difference.”
“Best QB in the league,” cornerback Jaire Alexander said.
These quotes read like blockbuster movie reviews.
It shouldn’t come as a surprise that Love has already won over the locker room, though. He may be entering his first year as a starter, but he’s no rookie. Love has been with the club since Green Bay traded up for him in the 2020 NFL Draft. He’s spent three seasons preparing for this, by far more time than most quarterbacks get before they’re handed the reins of an NFL offense.
And while Rodgers has left some big shoes to fill, given that he played nearly 20 years for the green and gold and is a four-time league MVP, he didn’t leave on the best note after last season.
Rodgers didn’t even leave with the best stats. Just a year removed from his last MVP title, Rodgers recorded a career low in yards thrown in a full season along with his second-fewest touchdowns in a full season played. He ended the year throwing for 3,695 yards with 26 touchdowns against 12 interceptions, the second-highest interception total of his career. His 39.3 quarterback rating, according to PFR, was his lowest as a starter.
The down year likely has less to do with his age and more to do with the fact he was dealing with a broken thumb for most of the season. It’s inconceivable that the departure of Davante Adams would have that big of an effect on a guy coming off back-to-back MVP seasons.
And let’s not forget, injury aside, Rodgers comes with baggage — both emotional and physical. The power struggle with the front office was distracting. His insistence on Green Bay signing his friends meant a significant part of the Packers’ offensive real estate was taken up by players who wouldn’t otherwise be on NFL rosters. Randall Cobb and Marcedes Lewis have careers they should be proud of. They add a tremendous amount of intangible value as mentors in the locker room. But to keep them on the roster and utilize them within the offensive scheme as much as Rodgers was insistent they do when Green Bay was clearly trying to rebuild with youth resulted in an identity crisis for the Packers.
They’re in crisis no longer.
Love now leads a young offensive core; one he can grow with and into. Early reports out of OTAs and minicamp suggest he’s already clicking with his receivers, especially Doubs, who flew out to California to work out with Love before the offseason program even began. Running back Aaron Jones was part of that group, too. These last few months have been paramount not only to Love learning how to command the offense, but for the offense to get to know him as their leader. It’s a new experience for some, including Doubs and Watson, having their quarterback at OTAs, after all.
But Love will undoubtedly still face a learning curve this season. Head coach Matt LaFleur is doing his best to temper expectations.
“He’s shown progress almost on a daily basis,” LaFleur said. “But it’s going to be important and incumbent on himself to just show that initiative and stay in his playbook.”
NFC EAST
DALLAS
Earlier this week, we had QB DAK PRESCOTT pining for departed RB EZEKIEL ELLIOTT. Today, he’s singing the praises of rookie RB DEUCE VAUGHN. Grant Gordon of NFL.com:
Dak Prescott is excited about the Dallas Cowboys’ running backs — past and present.
The two-time Pro Bowl quarterback is still working out with now-former Dallas back Ezekiel Elliott ahead of the upcoming season and is galvanized by the prospects of rookie Deuce Vaughn.
“I think he’s going to be a very talented player who can help us immediately,” Prescott said of Vaughn on The Ticket Sports Radio 96.7fm/1310am this week, via The Dallas Morning News.
As for the running back who helped the Cowboys for the past seven seasons, Elliott’s still helping Dallas in a way as he and Prescott continue to prepare for the upcoming campaign in unison.
“That’s my best friend,” Prescott said, via The Dallas Morning News’ Lia Assimakopoulos. “We’ll continue to work, continue to push each other. He looks great. I’m excited for whatever opportunity he has coming up, and I’m always his biggest fan.”
Elliott remains one of a number of notable free-agent running backs, such as Dalvin Cook, Kareem Hunt and Leonard Fournette, who are looking for employment in an unkind RB market.
Thus, as the likes of Saquon Barkley and Austin Ekeler are clamoring for paychecks commensurate to their production and value to their respective squads, there are myriad veterans just waiting and hoping for a chance at a roster spot.
“I think the running back position is tough,” Prescott said. “All those guys are dynamic backs, can still play and have a lot left in the tank. I hope all of them make the right decision and not just jump on whatever’s fast. You’re never surprised about what this league does. You always have to understand it’s a business and try not to take anything personal.”
Elliott remains in search of his next club, though there have been rumblings he could rejoin the Cowboys at some point. For now, Zeke’s chapter with the ‘Boys has closed, even though he’s still in regular communication with the face of the franchise.
For Vaughn, a new chapter is being written and so far, it’s a feel-good story that began with Chris Vaughn, Dallas’ assistant director of college scouting and Deuce’s father, calling the Kansas State rusher to tell him he was the newest Cowboy on Day 3 of the draft. The memorable tear-jerking moment garnered headlines, but Vaughn will now be looked on to garner yards for a Dallas offense that could need him from the jump.
With Dallas RB1 Tony Pollard on the mend from a broken leg, Vaughn and other ‘Boys backs such as Malik Davis and Rico Dowdle could see more opportunities.
Prescott, for one, is enlivened by what Vaughn could bring.
“That was one that you do get excited about when you see that story,” Prescott said. “Understanding going into it knowing who he was, knowing his dad, thinking how cool that would be if you could make that happen. I did pay attention enough that he was there in the (sixth) round or something, was like how is he still there? Seeing that, seeing that reaction, just knowing how great of a guy Chris, who is the father, is. I’m excited about Deuce being in there.”
AFC SOUTH
HOUSTON
Mike Jones of The Athletic sees the Texans as winners this offseason, at least from their previous position:
Winner: Houston Texans
The Texans haven’t wholeheartedly committed to a head coach for years now (firing Bill O’Brien in-season in 2020, using Romeo Crennel as a placeholder, then firing David Culley and Lovie Smith after just one season each in 2021 and 2022). But now they have Ryans, a former Pro Bowl linebacker for the Texans who is regarded as one of the brightest defensive minds in the game, and two big rookie building blocks in quarterback C.J. Stroud and pass rusher Will Anderson Jr. That’s on top of a smart free agency.
TENNESSEE
Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com has started his NFL team previews (32 Arizona, 31 Houston, 30 Chicago) with three teams from last year’s bottom that he doesn’t see getting any higher. At #29, he goes with a recent playoff regular:
When the Tennessee Titans went to Lambeau Field and beat the Green Bay Packers last season, they were 7-3. They had won seven of eight, with the only loss coming in overtime at the Kansas City Chiefs with rookie Malik Willis starting at quarterback.
It was a continuation of the previous season, when they went 12-5 and were the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The roster didn’t always look the prettiest, but the Titans won.
Then they couldn’t win. Tennessee didn’t win another game after beating the Packers on Nov. 17. They lost their last seven, including a Week 18 game against the Jacksonville Jaguars for the AFC South division title.
“It’s embarrassing,” safety Kevin Byard said, according to the Tennessean. “It’s embarrassing especially to go out that way. Obviously to still have an opportunity to go to the playoffs was really good, ending took a little bit off of that. But I’m just disappointed the way we ended the year.”
Maybe head coach Mike Vrabel can work his magic again this season and get the most out of the Titans. It’s also possible that streak to end last season was a sign of things to come.
The Titans’ best players on offense are quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who will be 35 this season and has had a notable dropoff in play the past two seasons, and Derrick Henry, who turns 30 on Jan. 4 and has led the league in carries three of the past four seasons. Henry is built like a superhero but he can’t be great forever. The rest of the offense is a mess, with a receiving group and offensive line which both rank near the bottom of the NFL. The receivers will be better if the Titans land free agent DeAndre Hopkins, but he wouldn’t fix everything.
The defense showed some signs of slipping last season too. It will never get that bad — Vrabel is one of the best coaches in the NFL and his expertise is on defense — but if the offense is in the bottom half of the league, the defense probably won’t be good enough to lift the team very far. And the Titans had an offseason with more losses than gains. It will get even worse if the Titans move Byard, a two-time All-Pro safety who was asked to take a pay cut in March but declined. Byard was absent at OTAs, though he did participate in the team’s mandatory minicamp.
Perhaps the Titans won’t have a hard fall. Their swoon last season had a lot to do with injuries. They had 23 players on injured reserve at the end of the season. Tennessee has a very good track record with Vrabel. Even with the Titans making a desperation start of Joshua Dobbs at QB in Week 18, they still almost won at Jacksonville to make the playoffs. A fumble that was returned by the Jaguars for a touchdown with about three minutes left kept the Titans from a division title.
It’s just hard to overlook the growing problems on the roster.
For many years the Titans have leaned heavily on Henry, who has put himself in the Hall of Fame conversation over the past few seasons. Since the Titans finally figured out late in Henry’s third NFL season how good he was, they have given him the type of workload you don’t see in this era. Henry has averaged 22.7 carries per game over the past four seasons. That’s about 386 carries for a 17-game season, and it doesn’t even count the postseason. Only three backs reached 300 carries last season, and Henry led the way with 349 in 16 games. It’s not like Henry is showing many signs of slowing down, but it could happen fast. Having a line that is projected by many to be among the NFL’s worst this season won’t help.
If Henry looks like an average back as he approaches age 30, what do the Titans become? Tight end Chig Okonkwo and receiver Treylon Burks, a 2022 first-round pick, are intriguing talents but they’re not proven. Nobody else on the roster looks like a future 1,000-yard receiver. There’s no sure thing backing up Henry. And Tannehill is aging. That’s a reason the Titans took Kentucky QB Will Levis in the second round.
There were trade rumors with Tannehill and Henry, and while neither was moved, it says something that the Titans seemed to be considering it. Maybe they should have traded one or both. Both players are set to become free agents next offseason and it seems like the Titans are on the verge of a rebuild anyway.
Perhaps they get one more playoff push out of a Henry-led roster. Vrabel is a fixer, and that will help. But what we saw late last season, injuries or not, could be the first signs of a big drop for Tennessee.
Offseason grade
It’s hard to get excited about the Titans’ offseason. The big addition was offensive tackle Andre Dillard, who failed to impress as a Philadelphia Eagles first-round pick and started nine games over four seasons (he missed 2020 due to injury), including none last year. He got $29 million over three seasons, which is dubious. Guard Nate Davis left the Titans to sign with the Chicago Bears, and he’s been a better player than Dillard. Tennessee also cut longtime offensive tackle Taylor Lewan. The Titans made a nice pickup with defensive lineman Arden Key. The big move to start the offseason was a four-year, $94 million deal to defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons, one of the top interior defenders in the NFL. In the first round of the draft the Titans helped their line with Northwestern offensive lineman Peter Skoronski, who has been working at guard and tackle in the offseason. Quarterback Will Levis was an interesting second-round pick, but his fall out of the first round is an indication that he was overrated by draft analysts. Running back Tyjae Spears in the third round was an acknowledgement that this could be Henry’s last season in Tennessee, though Spears has a scary medical report that reportedly includes no ACL and arthritis in one of his knees. It’s hard to say the Titans’ roster is better than it was last season. If the Titans land DeAndre Hopkins that might bump up the grade a bit, though it’s fair to wonder what kind of impact Hopkins will have at age 31.
GRADE: C-minus
Quarterback report
Ryan Tannehill was a find for the Titans. He had a 110.6 passer rating in 2019-20. Then the past two years, Tannehill’s passer rating dropped to 91.5. That’s not bad, but it’s hard to see Tannehill rebounding all the way back to his 2019-20 numbers as he enters his age-35 season. Tannehill is good enough with a strong supporting cast, but the Titans don’t have that anymore. They took a shot on Malik Willis in last year’s draft and he looked overwhelmed as a rookie. He was so bad that the Titans signed Joshua Dobbs off the Detroit Lions’ practice squad and a little more than a week later made him their starter over Willis. That’s a reason the Titans traded up eight spots and took Will Levis in the second round of this year’s draft. Levis got a little too much hype going into the draft but he has a physical profile that the Titans can work with and develop. If the Titans struggle, there will be an inevitable quarterback controversy with fans clamoring for Levis.
BetMGM odds breakdown
It should be obvious by the Titans’ low ranking that I like under 7.5 wins for them at BetMGM. Maybe I’m way too pessimistic about the Titans. Mike Vrabel is a fantastic coach. Derrick Henry is a joy to watch. Perhaps I’m underestimating their defense. But I don’t see where the eight wins needed to hit the over come from, even in a soft division.
Yahoo’s fantasy take
From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “Chigoziem Okonkwo was the most productive rookie tight end last year, for whatever that means to you. No rookie TE had more than three touchdown catches, and Okonkwo’s 450 yards led the position; the Class of 2022 didn’t exactly break the game. But Okonkwo’s knack for making explosive plays is exciting.
“Among all qualified tight ends (20 or more catches), Okonkwo ranked second in yards per target and first in yards per catch. He was the only tight end to collect three receptions over 40 yards, and Okonkwo did this on a meager 46 targets. A second-year spike is possible, and the Titans need Okonkwo to have a sizable role, given how ordinary their wideout room is. Okonkwo will probably show up on a lot of sleeper lists, but just because he’s trendy doesn’t mean the pick is wrong. His Yahoo ADP of 119 offers plenty of room for profit.”
Stat to remember
The Titans were excellent last season at stopping the run. They allowed 3.4 yards per carry, tied with the San Francisco 49ers for best in the NFL. Every other team aside from Tennessee and San Francisco allowed at least 3.9 yards per carry. So teams just threw on the Titans. They faced 671 attempts, which was 47 more than any other team. Stopping the run is fine but it’s not an overly valuable strength in this era; the Titans’ defense finished 19th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA. A lot of that has to do with injuries — the Titans’ defense had by far the league’s most games lost to injury in FO’s adjusted games lost metric for last season — so perhaps the Titans can change the identity of their defense this season.
Burning question
Can Treylon Burks emerge as a legit No. 1 receiver?
The Titans made a mistake with A.J. Brown. They misread the receiver market for contracts and traded him to the Philadelphia Eagles. They used the first-round pick they got back on Treylon Burks, and the Titans are praying Burks can be comparable to Brown at some point in his career. Burks wasn’t bad as a rookie, but he dealt with injuries and had a 33-444-1 line in 11 games. He’s talented enough to be the centerpiece of a passing game, but the Titans need to see much more from him in his second season. The Titans did practically nothing at receiver in the offseason before pursuing DeAndre Hopkins. If Burks doesn’t step up and become a 1,000-yard receiver (or if the team lands Hopkins, which would obviously help), the Titans might have one of the worst passing offenses in the NFL.
Best-case scenario
The Titans aren’t far removed from looking like a lock to win the AFC South midway through last season. Injuries were a huge factor in their miserable finish to the season. Maybe a healthier Titans team looks a lot like it did through mid-November last season. Derrick Henry could still have at least one more elite season left. Mike Vrabel could get the defense back to a top-10 level. The Titans have a formula that works for them. And they do pretty well when they’ve been disrespected.
Nightmare scenario
If you want to know how bad it can get, look at the final seven games last season. It was torturous. There are some glaring holes on the roster now, and the Titans didn’t have a great offseason. It seems likely that Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry are moving on after this season. The Titans had a lot of success with this group, though it fell short of making a Super Bowl. The era might end with a whimper.
The crystal ball says …
It’s not like we don’t all see what’s going on with the Titans. Moving up to draft quarterback Will Levis was a worthwhile gamble, but it was a sign that this is likely the last season with this core. It’s hard to believe Ryan Tannehill will be back, and Derrick Henry will have options too. If the Titans start slow, that transition could happen during the season. The Titans could surprise everyone, as they’ve done before. It’s just too hard to overlook the inadequacies on the roster.
AFC EAST
NEW YORK JETS
Nick Shook of NFL.com with quotes from OC Nathaniel Hackett:
Nathaniel Hackett wants to be in a better place than he was in 2022.
Familiarity should help. Hackett is back in the role of offensive coordinator, this time with the New York Jets, for whom he’ll direct an offense executed by none other than his old pal, Aaron Rodgers.
Expectations are understandably high. For Hackett, after a season spent as head coach of a Denver Broncos team that fell remarkably short of its goals, he’s just glad to be in a place of comfort and out of the brightest of spotlights.
“It’s not about me. It isn’t,” Hackett told Good Morning Football’s Peter Schrager on The Season podcast. “The only thing I would say that it is about me is I just want to be the best version of myself. … If I can then portray that to those players, then they’re gonna be able to get out on that field and they’re gonna be able to execute at a high level, and that’s all that I want.
“I just want to see Aaron play some of the best football he’s ever played in his career. That was something that was so fun to be a part of when we were at Green Bay, and I want to see him get to where he wants to be, accomplish what he wants to accomplish.”
Hackett has reason to feel good about his reunion with Rodgers. After three seasons spent together in Green Bay, neither fared very well while apart in 2022. Sometimes, as the saying goes, absence makes the heart grow fonder. In the same vein, it also makes one appreciate what they once had in each other.
Hackett’s history with Rodgers — which included two NFL MVP-winning seasons — should serve as enough proof that they’ll be productive again in 2023, provided Rodgers’ age (40 years old in December) doesn’t contribute to a significant decline. An innate understanding of each other developed in their time in Green Bay will help them start the season with momentum. It should also be beneficial within the flow of each game.
“I think there’s going to be some freedom with Aaron, and as we moved forward in the Green Bay system, there was definitely more freedom as we went,” Hackett said. “We’re just gonna continue that because you’ve got to take advantage of a guy like Aaron that is so smart and understands it. So, [we’re] trying to build this thing for him and build it so that when he sees certain things, he can do all kind of stuff and put us in the best position possible.”
This isn’t a coach and quarterback getting to know each other for the first time. It is, however, a reunion that comes with expectation.
Because of Rodgers’ arrival to a Jets team filled with young talent, New York will be on national television six times in the 2023 season. Coach Robert Saleh will encounter the biggest stage of his career as the top director, and he’ll need to lean on the likes of Rodgers and Hackett to succeed.
Hackett believes their past will prove essential to their future. It’s tough to argue with previous results — but the most important ones are still ahead.
Mike Jones of The Athletic says the Jets are winners of this offseason, but QB AARON RODGERS is a loser. Does this make sense?
Winner: New York Jets
Robert Saleh and company went from a gravely concerning quarterback situation to landing a future Hall of Famer at the position who now makes them must-see TV. The Jets are all-in on their quest for a Super Bowl after their trade with the Green Bay Packers for Aaron Rodgers and the NFL has scheduled them for five prime-time contests plus the inaugural Black Friday game this fall.
Loser: Aaron Rodgers
Yes, he got what he wanted in his exit from Green Bay and reunion with new Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, his former Packers OC. He also gains a more potent cast of wide receivers. But in leaving the NFC for the AFC, he now has a significantly tougher road to the Super Bowl. If beating Jared Goff and the Lions was too tall a task in 2022, what makes Rodgers think he can win a shootout with Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Deshaun Watson and Tua Tagovailoa? After generally rolling through the NFC North annually, Rodgers will learn that winning a first-round AFC playoff game will be much more challenging — and that’s if Rodgers and the Jets even get out of the AFC East, where the Bills, Patriots and Dolphins all boast tough defenses.
THIS AND THAT
NFLPA
The NFLPA is on the verge of picking a new executive director in a process notable for its secrecy. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:
Apparently, the winner will be known before the finalists ever are.
Ben Fischer of Sports Business Journal reports that the NFL Players Association expects to have a new executive director chosen by Thursday, June 29.
Skip
Per Fischer, NFLPA staff has been asked to attend a meet-and-greet with the successor to DeMaurice Smith next Thursday at union headquarters in Washington, D.C.
The NFLPA’s board of player representatives will meet next Tuesday and Wednesday to elect a new executive director. There is reportedly a “heavy favorite” for the job, even if no one outside the NFLPA’s very tight bubble know who it is.
Although there are arguments to be made that confidentiality is important for candidates who might currently have other jobs, at some point the names of the candidates need to be known to the rank and file. The player representatives are elected by their teammates. How can there be no disclosure to the players on the various teams, who should have a voice regarding who will or won’t lead the union?
The complete absent of transparency invites speculation as to potential skullduggery. It would be better if all players know who the finalists are, before the final votes are cast by their elected representatives.
At this point, it appears that won’t be the case.
STATE OF INCLUSIVITY
Jim Trotter, a champion of “inclusivity”, reviews front offices and coaching staffs from his perspective in The Athletic:
NFL teams have been moving at light speed when it comes to inclusive hires in the front office. After failing to have a single Black club president in the league’s first century, teams have hired five in the last three years. During that same period, they have gone from one Black general manager to a record eight.
The increased diversity is a testament to the league office’s efforts to make the hiring process more fair and equitable, and yet for every step forward off the field, the lack of inclusivity along the sideline becomes more glaring. It begs the question: How can teams make such swift and significant strides in the front office yet be stuck in quicksand when it comes to hiring Blacks as head coaches?
Currently, the league has just three head coaches who identify as Black: Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin, Tampa Bay’s Todd Bowles and Houston’s DeMeco Ryans. That matches the total to start each of the previous four seasons and is reflective of a pattern that has seen only five of the 33 non-interim coaching vacancies be filled by Blacks over the past five hiring cycles, with Steve Wilks, David Culley and Love Smith each being fired after one season.
Those numbers are both painful and motivating for the league office, which has intensified efforts to counter what some view as discriminatory hiring practices. In 2018 it partnered with the Black College Football Hall of Fame on what’s known as the Quarterback Summit, a two-day event where African-American coaches are brought together to network and share knowledge that could help them climb the professional ladder. In 2021, it created the Ozzie Newsome General Managers Forum, an intensive one-day event that tutors Blacks seeking top personnel positions. And last year it created the Accelerator initiative, at which candidates of diverse backgrounds meet with NFL owners and executives to network and discuss head coach and front-office jobs.
While these things have made a difference in front offices, they have not produced positive change on the field. Full disclosure, I was tempted to call the Quarterback Summit a performative gesture that seeks to provide cover for close-minded owners, but that would be a slap in the face of the men behind the event, namely Doug Williams and James Harris, co-founders of the Black College Football Hall of Fame, and Troy Vincent, the league’s executive vice president of football operations. Their intentions are pure and genuine.
At the same time, however, it’s hard to take the event seriously when the people doing the hiring don’t even show up for it. The next owner to attend the summit will be the first, and while some would argue that owners have access to recordings of the sessions, the video will never replace the power of face-to-face meetings. If owners really want to get to know these potential candidates outside of the pressured environment of the hiring cycle, or the brevity of the annual meeting, here is another opportunity.
I’ve never been a believer that these types of programs are change-inducing for Black coaches because history tells me otherwise. Take a trip back to 1997 for one such example.
There were 10 coaching vacancies that offseason, all of which were filled by Whites, with only one minority (Emmitt Thomas) getting an interview. When longtime assistant coach Terry Robiskie complained, former commissioner Paul Tagliabue brought nearly a dozen minority coaches to his New York office to discuss the issue.
The coaches — Ted Cottrell, Art Shell, Ray Sherman, Herman Edwards, Clarence Shelmon, Greg Blache, Johnny Roland, Chick Harris, Gerald Carr and Robert Ford — knew they would have to come with more than complaints in their briefcases, so they brought what they considered to be potential solutions, one of which focused on broadcast partners doing a better job of showing and discussing diverse coaches during games.
Ultimately, some of these coaches told me, Tagliabue arranged for a select group to attend the owners’ meeting the following year in Florida. He said there would be opportunities for face time with the leaders of every franchise. It didn’t take long for the coaches to realize nothing positive would come from the session.
“They bussed us to wherever they were and had us in some type of ballroom,” Cottrell told me by phone. “When the owners came in, it wasn’t much of anything. A lot of them didn’t want to talk to us. It was like, OK, we’re here. We did what we were supposed to do. Let’s get the hell out of here. So you really had no chance to sit down and discuss things with them, like we thought would happen. It was like a social hour, with all of us standing around cocktail tables eating finger foods. And when I say social hour, I mean hour, not hours.”
It would not be until three years later that the NFL hired its next Black head coach, and much of that was due to Tagliabue pressuring Jets ownership to hire Herm Edwards. On the eve of last year’s Accelerator Initiative, I asked Shelmon, who attended the meeting with Tagliabue in 1997, if he felt the gathering would make a difference.
“I can’t see how (it is) going to change anything,” he said. “History doesn’t lie. … I doubt very seriously things will change because you can’t legislate hiring and you can’t mandate hiring. It has to come from people who have a good heart and are fair and equitable and who see people for who they are and not the color of their skin.”
Which brings me back to this question: Why aren’t Blacks being hired as head coaches at the same rate that they’re being hired as club presidents and general managers? The most common response from those attending the Ozzie Newsome Forum and the QB Summit the last three days in California is that head coaches are the public face of the franchise while presidents and general managers are more behind-the-scenes positions. Said another way: Owners aren’t comfortable having Blacks as the public face of their franchises.
“I’ve seen hiring with five distinct, different ownership groups,” Sashi Brown, president of the Baltimore Ravens and former general manager of the Browns, told me Wednesday. “I would say that if a blue-skinned female was the best candidate that would help them win and accomplish their goals, they may have to get over some things, but if that person comes in and wins the interview, they’re going to get the job. I really believe that our challenge is identifying, developing and positioning — positioning — candidates the right way when they walk in the door so that you’re not coming in looking for the same old stuff. That you’ve really got to understand what you’re looking for.”
Brown joined the other Black club presidents for a Q&A at the Ozzie Newsome General Managers Forum. I asked each why the hiring of Black head coaches has not kept pace with inclusive hires in the front office. Their responses, in the order given:
Kevin Warren, Chicago Bears: “One of the things that we need to continue to do is be more intentional about it, to talk about it. … Being out of the league for four years (while commissioner of the Big Ten), there’s the perception that once you get to Sunday, people are just focused on what happens on the field and the results of the game, and all the other issues, social, societal, financial — all of those things kind of go out of the window. So there probably is not an answer of intentionally keeping people out. I think the answer is: What can we do to help change that? These honest conversations, this honest dialogue, you writing about things, people talking about it, us talking about it, us creating these environments, us making sure that when people of color are given the opportunity to interview for jobs that we as a collective family, regardless of what their agents or advisors do, that we’re there to help.”
Brown: “I think the way that we hire head coaches has looped back into the same cycles of people, including a lot of the headhunters who recruited them and guided ownership groups toward various candidates. That’s certainly historically been, and I think that some of that still lingers, some of the challenges. I also think we’ve got to do better with our pipeline. I know Troy Vincent and people at the league have been very intentional about that, and that’s encouraging to see. But we do need to see the progress. The league as a whole has been frustrated by it, (but) we can’t get fatigued, can’t let our frustration deter what has got to be just a sustained effort to make sure we do better.”
Jason Wright, Washington Commanders: “Don’t grow weary in well-doing, first of all. Don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater. I’ll give you one example; the Rooney Rule, (the perception of) the Rooney Rule being ineffective and performative, that it’s not actually moving people into these roles, etc. If the Rooney Rule existed in corporate America, if every Fortune 500 company was forced to interview (diverse) folks, even if it was performative and a song and dance, whatever you want to call it, there would be more than three Fortune 500 Black CEOs. (The NFL needs to build on structures that the league has put in place rather than tear down the whole thing) because there actually have been some things that the NFL has done that have been ahead of its time. I came from the private sector outside of sports, and there, especially in the higher ranks when search firms are going for CEOs and those types of things, it is much worse than the processes we face.”
Sandra Douglass Morgan, Las Vegas Raiders: “I would just encourage everyone to speak positively about each other. Because going back to my initial comments, you never know who you’re going to run into. So when you’re talking about a coaching colleague from a different team, or someone that you’ve met and someone is asking your opinion, just be really supportive and intentional to speak highly of each other, and not just saying, ‘Yeah, I know them. They’re OK.’ Just think about nuggets and positive attributes that you can share with other coaches.”
Damani Leech, Denver Broncos: “We had a coaching search this offseason, and I was just interested and intrigued by the reaction of our ownership group who are all business and political leaders — chairman of Walmart, chairman of Starbucks — and a conversation they had about halfway through the process about how terrible the NFL coaching-search process is. They said it is unbelievably terrible and fraught with getting clubs to make bad decisions because it’s a condensed timeline, they don’t have the ability to develop relationships with prospective coaches, the external pressure of other clubs hiring at the same time in this limited window. They’re like, everybody is just going to make bad decisions. That’s not very solution-oriented for today, but it stuck with me how they all commented on that. So for me, a lot of the things that the league has been doing to try and create and develop relationships between prospective coaches and owners, definitely participate in those programs. Because they were like, ‘We don’t know who these people are, and we feel like we’ve got to make a decision very very quickly, and it’s just unhealthy.’”
The process is not only unhealthy, but so is the fallout. We have seen coaches such as Shelmon leave the game because the constant snubs in favor of those with lesser resumes were taking a toll on their mental health. Shelmon has called it “emasculating” and contends it stays with him every day despite leaving the game more than a decade ago.
While we focus on the progress that is being made off the field, it is important to continue to shine a spotlight on what is taking place along the sidelines, not to mention who is most responsible for the lack of inclusiveness: the owners.
RANKING TRIPLETS
Jared Dubin of CBSSports.com ranks the top “Triplets” – QB1, WR1, RB1:
Just as we did last year and the year before that and the year before that and the year before that and the year before that and the year before that, the crew here at CBSSports.com recently set out to rank each NFL team’s “triplets.” Why not, right? It’s the middle of the offseason, and it’s an offseason tradition around these parts.
So in the space below, we’re once again counting down the NFL’s best QB-RB-WR/TE trios, grading the expected starters at quarterback and running back and their presumed top pass-catcher for the 2023 NFL season. For some teams, it was obvious who would fill each role. For others, less so. Where we had to make judgment calls on which player would start at quarterback or who would be the top target, we did.
In the space below, you’ll see our rankings of these triplets. The first number in parentheses is the team’s average ranking based on the votes of several of our staff writers and editors atCBSSports.com, while the second number reflects the high and low end of where our staffers ranked that individual team.
For example, our No. 6 team — the Dallas Cowboys — had an average ranking of 6.8, with a high ranking of 5 and a low of 13. We have denoted tier breaks in any place where the difference between the average ranking of one team and another exceeded 2.0. For example, the aforementioned Cowboys had an average ranking of 6.8 and the Chargers had an average of 4.4, so the Chargers begin a new tier.
The panel included myself, John Breech, Jeff Kerr, Tyler Sullivan, Jordan Dajani, Cody Benjamin, Shanna McCarriston, Chris Trapasso, Kevin Steimle, Brett Anderson, Garrett Podell, Joel Magaraci, Kyle Stackpole, R.J. White, Eric Kernish and Eric Kay. The rankings reflect the collective wisdom of this crowd, while the corresponding analysis is mine.
Tier 9: The Cardinals
32. Arizona Cardinals (Avg: 32.0, High: 32, Low: 32) Last year: 14th
QB: Colt McCoy RB: James Conner WR: Marquise Brown
Kyler Murray tore his ACL in December and the Cardinals have what is pretty clearly the worst roster in football, so there is zero incentive for them to bring him back at any point this season, let alone a significant portion of it. For that reason, we went with McCoy at quarterback, and the Cardinals were a unanimous pick in dead last by our panel.
Tier 8: The Bottom
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Avg: 30.2, High: 28, Low: 31) Last year: 5th
QB: Baker Mayfield RB: Rachaad White WR: Mike Evans
The downgrade from Tom Brady to Mayfield is perhaps the most significant expected drop in quarterback play in the league, even accounting for Brady’s relatively subpar 2022 season. Even if we subbed in Chris Godwin for Evans, I can’t imagine the Bucs would have ranked much higher than this. As it is, they didn’t get any votes above 28th.
30. Houston Texans (Avg: 30.1, High: 28, Low: 31) Last year: 29th
QB: C.J. Stroud RB: Dameon Pierce WR: Nico Collins
This ranking begins a run on teams with young quarterbacks that mostly goes uninterrupted through the bottom third of the league. Stroud, the No. 2 overall pick in this year’s draft, is supported in the backfield by a Day 3 pick from last year, and his presumed top wideout has 70 catches for 927 yards and three scores in two NFL seasons. The Texans have a chance to build things up in the future, but we shouldn’t expect big things just yet.
29. Washington Commanders (Avg: 28.1, High: 22, Low: 31) Last year: 22nd
QB: Sam Howell RB: Brian Robinson WR: Terry McLaurin
The Commies are signaling much more confidence in Howell than our panel apparently has. I feel like this ranking would be quite a bit higher if Jacoby Brissett were expected to start under center for Washington, but that’s just an opinion. One of these days, McLaurin will hopefully have a surefire top QB throwing him the ball. He’s capable of so much if he eventually gets that chance.
Tier 7: (Mostly) Young QBs, Part I
28.Carolina Panthers (Avg: 26.2, High: 21, Low: 29) Last year: 26th
QB: Bryce Young RB: Miles Sanders WR: Adam Thielen
Like Stroud, Young is not exactly surrounded by a bevy of skill-position talent. He does have a stronger offensive line in front of him and a veteran back in Sanders, but his top receivers are likely Thielen and D.J. Chark, barring rookie Jonathan Mingo stepping in and immediately asserting himself as the best pass-catching option. For that reason, this group ranks pretty low leaguewide, and barely escaped being ranked inside the bottom tier.
27. New England Patriots (Avg: 25.9, High: 22, Low: 30) Last year: 21st
QB: Mac Jones RB: Rhamondre Stevenson WR: JuJu Smith-Schuster
Had Matt Patricia not been in charge of New England’s offense last season, I think the Pats would probably be in the next tier, rather than sitting way down here. Mac Jones took such a significant step back a year ago that it’s tough to place New England much higher than this, but Stevenson is a stud and Smith-Schuster is at least a semi-reliable slot target. Perhaps after a year under Bill O’Brien, the Patriots can take a step forward.
26. Atlanta Falcons (Avg: 25.9, High: 21, Low: 29) Last year: 32nd
QB: Desmond Ridder RB: Bijan Robinson TE: Kyle Pitts
How you feel about this ranking will likely depend almost entirely on how you feel about Ridder. Did you love him coming into last year’s draft? Not much has happened to dissuade you of that opinion. Were you not so high on him? Same story. Most quarterbacks drafted in the third round do not become starter-quality players, though, and it seems like our panel expects that to hold true with Ridder, which drags down the ranking of a team that has drafted two explosive weapons in the top 10 in recent years.
25. Tennessee Titans (Avg: 24.9, High: 20, Low: 29) Last year: 19th
QB: Ryan Tannehill RB: Derrick Henry WR: Treylon Burks
The exception to the young quarterback run, we have the Titans in a clear period of transition. It’s entirely possible that next year’s triplets rankings include Will Levis and Tyjae Spears alongside Burks. This definitely seems like a last hurrah for Tannehill and Henry.
24. Indianapolis Colts (Avg: 24.6, High: 16, Low: 30) Last year: 15th
QB: Anthony Richardson RB: Jonathan Taylor WR: Michael Pittman
Richardson seems likely to be a fantasy football star in short order given his outrageous athleticism and rushing ability, but he may take a while longer to come along as a passer. Armed with Taylor to augment his skills in the run game and Pittman (and Alec Pierce) on the outside to make contested catches and take advantage of YAC opportunities, though, the immediate floor might be a bit higher than people would think for a player with his skill set. (Still, one vote as high as No. 16 seems a bit optimistic.)
Tier 7: Young QBs, Part II
23. Green Bay Packers (Avg: 22.8, High: 13, Low: 27) Last year: 13th
QB: Jordan Love RB: Aaron Jones WR: Christian Watson
I was shocked to see the Packers get a vote at No. 13, given how little we know about Love and how relatively unproven Watson still is. Jones is one of the NFL’s most explosive backs, but he is also heading into his age-29 season, and running backs typically begin to decline well in advance of that age. We haven’t seen signs of him slowing down all that much yet, but the cliff typically sneaks up on backs pretty quickly.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers (Avg: 21.9, High: 15, Low: 25) Last year: 25th
QB: Kenny Pickett RB: Najee Harris WR: Diontae Johnson
If there is any team from this group that is most likely to make a significant jump this year, it might be the Steelers. Second-year quarterbacks typically take a step forward if they are going to end up being any good, and Pickett has an improved offensive line in front of him as well as both Johnson and George Pickens, plus Allen Robinson, Pat Freiermuth, and Darnell Washington in his pass-catching corps. If he makes a leap, the Steelers can certainly jump into the top half of the league.
21. Denver Broncos (Avg: 21.6, High: 19, Low: 27) Last year: 10th
QB: Russell Wilson RB: Javonte Williams (or Samaje Perine) WR: Courtland Sutton
This ranking seems like a show of faith that Sean Payton can get a lot more out of Wilson than did Nathaniel Hackett. That seems like a safe bet. Still, nobody even had the Broncos in the top half of the league, which is a big difference from last year, when they checked in 10th overall and didn’t get any votes lower than 16th.
Tier 5: Pretty Good! With Some Questions
20. Chicago Bears (Avg: 19.7, High: 15, Low: 26) Last year: 30th
QB: Justin Fields RB: Khalil Herbert WR: D.J. Moore
This is a big step forward for Chicago’s trio. Fields’ performance as a runner last season was second to none, and the Bears did what several teams with young, ascending quarterbacks before them have done in going to get him a No. 1 receiver. Herbert seems likely to split the backfield duties with D’Onta Foreman and/or Roschon Johnson, but should be the leader among that group. If Fields can take a leap as a passer this season, Chicago could ascend significantly higher next year.
19. New Orleans Saints (Avg: 19.3, High: 12, Low: 23) Last year: 17th
QB: Derek Carr RB: Alvin Kamara (or Jamaal Williams) WR: Chris Olave
Well, this seems about right for the Saints. Olave was fantastic as a rookie and looks every bit like a future star. But Carr has been somewhere between slightly above average and slightly below average for the majority of his career, and Kamara took a step back last year and may or may not be facing a significant suspension. (And Williams’ effectiveness is likely overstated right now due to his absurd touchdown rate last season.)
18. New York Giants (Avg: 18.6, High: 11, Low: 23) Last year: 28th
QB: Daniel Jones RB: Saquon Barkley TE: Darren Waller
Jones may have been the most improved player in the NFL last season, but most of that improvement was about limiting the downside of his play and not discovering the upside. New York took more off his plate and basically asked him to be a runner and short-passer and that was about it. What will things look like if and when the Giants ask him to do more? We’re going to find out over these next few years, and at least the team went out and got him a higher-quality pass-catcher in Waller to aid that development.
17. Los Angeles Rams (Avg: 16.8, High: 13, Low: 21) Last year: 6th
QB: Matthew Stafford RB: Cam Akers WR: Cooper Kupp
This is a steep fall for the Rams, and seems to be based mostly on health. What is the status of Stafford’s elbow? Who the heck knows. Is Kupp fully recovered from his ankle surgery? We won’t really find out until training camp. Can Akers rediscover any of what made him an exciting prospect before his Achilles tear? It remains to be seen.
16. Las Vegas Raiders (Avg: 15.5, High: 11, Low: 19) Last year: 9th
QB: Jimmy Garoppolo RB: Josh Jacobs WR: Davante Adams
So, uh, is Jimmy G even going to suit up for the Raiders? Or is that clause in his contract about being released with no penalty before this season about to become very important? That’s a situation that seems wildly up in the air. Jacobs is coming off a First Team All-Pro season, but his play last year was wildly out of step with his performance through the first three years of his career. What should we expect going forward? Adams is one of the small handful of best receivers in the NFL, but we don’t know who will be throwing him the ball, or what Garoppolo will look like outside of the Kyle Shanahan cocoon if it’s indeed him.
15. Detroit Lions (Avg: 15.4, High: 14, Low: 17) Last year: 24th
QB: Jared Goff RB: David Montgomery WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Goff has shown at this point that if he is well protected, he can deliver the ball on time and on target with enough regularity to lead a pretty damn good offense. He doesn’t present much of a ceiling beyond what is schemed up for him within the confines of the offense, but when the scheme and the line are as good as Detroit’s, that’s not as much of an issue. Perhaps Jahmyr Gibbs should be the back here, but Montgomery seems much more likely to be the team’s leading rusher, with Gibbs operating as a secondary threat in both the run and pass game.
14. Cleveland Browns (Avg: 14.6, High: 9, Low: 19) Last year: 11th
QB: Deshaun Watson RB: Nick Chubb WR: Amari Cooper
I’m honestly not sure how anybody chose their rankings for the Browns, because I have no idea what anybody should expect from Watson. He essentially did not play football for about a year and a half, and although it was due to a suspension and not an injury, that is a long time to be away and it is not like you come back and just automatically resume your prior level of play. Can he rediscover that form at all? There appears to be at least a mild degree of confidence here that he can.
13. Seattle Seahawks (Avg: 14.3, High: 10, Low: 23) Last year: 31st
QB: Geno Smith RB: Kenneth Walker WR: DK Metcalf
The Seahawks were probably last season’s biggest (pleasant) surprise, with Geno Smith enjoying a delayed breakout season the likes of which we have rarely seen in the NFL. His combination of accuracy and playmaking was up there with some of the best in the league for most of the season, though he did slow down toward the end of the year. Still, it looks like he’s got the faith of our panel, which expects Seattle to be pretty firmly in the top half of the league once again.
Tier 4: Very Good, Maybe Not (Yet) Great
12. Minnesota Vikings (Avg: 11.9, High: 9, Low: 15) Last year: 15th
QB: Kirk Cousins RB: Alexander Mattison WR: Justin Jefferson
Jefferson currently holds the crown as the best receiver in the league, but Cousins is basically the epitome of a league-average quarterback and we’ve only seen Mattison act as the lead back a few times in his career so it’s fair to have some questions about how he’ll fare in that role full time. A ranking just outside the top 10 seems about right.
11. San Francisco 49ers (Avg: 10.0, High: 5, Low: 18) Last year: 13th
QB: ??? RB: Christian McCaffrey WR: Deebo Samuel
Do you have any idea who will be playing quarterback for the 49ers in Week 1? We don’t. And it didn’t much matter here. Brock Purdy is still recovering from his elbow surgery. Trey Lance is working his way back from a broken ankle. Sam Darnold might actually have to take some snaps! But CMC and Deebo are so good (and Kyle Shanahan’s so good at establishing a high floor for quarterback play) that the Niners checked in just outside the top 10 anyway.
10. Miami Dolphins (Avg: 9.9, High: 3, Low: 13) Last year: 18th
QB: Tua Tagovailoa RB: Raheem Mostert WR: Tyreek Hill
With the exception of a stray vote at No. 3, every other panelist placed the Dolphins between No. 8 and 13. That seems like the appropriate range for this group given the heights Tagovailoa achieved as a passer last year and the inherent risks involved with him as a player at this point. Hill showing what he did outside of Kansas City last season was pretty outrageous, and at least somewhat unexpected. Mostert will likely share work with Jeff Wilson Jr. and Devon Achane, and we didn’t really know which direction to lean with the choice at running back here.
9. New York Jets (Avg: 9.1, High: 7, Low: 13) Last year: 27th
QB: Aaron Rodgers RB: Breece Hall WR: Garrett Wilson
I’m at least a little surprised there weren’t more varied opinions on the Jets. Rodgers took a pretty sizable step backward last season and Hall is coming off a torn ACL. I thought there would be less agreement on whether Rodgers could bounce back and whether Hall would be healthy enough to lead the backfiield, but there was a pretty narrow band of rankings here. Wilson is a future (if not already present) superstar, though, and was able to show that essentially whenever anyone but Zach Wilson was on the field last season.
8. Baltimore Ravens (Avg: 8.8, High: 6, Low: 11) Last year: 8th
QB: Lamar Jackson RB: J.K. Dobbins TE: Mark Andrews
Baltimore is the only team to check in with the exact same ranking as it did last year. It helps that we’re using the exact same three players, even if the Ravens have changed out a lot of the pieces surrounding them — including the offensive coordinator. Jackson was on track to rediscover top form last season before injuries hit both him and the receiving corps, but the Ravens are clearly hoping Todd Monken can open things up for him and help find avenues to more explosive plays through the air.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (Avg: 8.4, High: 5, Low: 13) Last year: 23rd
QB: Trevor Lawrence RB: Travis Etienne WR: Calvin Ridley
I think it will be quite a long time before we find a Lawrence-led group outside the top 10 ever again. His rise last season was a bit overshadowed, but he is elite at avoiding negative plays and over the second half of the season began tapping into his outside-of-structure playmaking and high-level ability to read each layer of the defense. With a true No. 1 wideout now on board in Ridley, he should be able to ascend another level this season.
Tier 3: The Cowboys
6. Dallas Cowboys (Avg: 6.8, High: 5, Low: 13) Last year: 7th
QB: Dak Prescott RB: Tony Pollard WR: CeeDee Lamb
Pollard is at long last the lead back in Dallas, and it looks like his recovery from a fractured ankle has gone well enough that he’s been a full participant in the offseason program. If he weren’t getting overshadowed by draft-class-mate Justin Jefferson, there would be a whole lot of talk about Lamb getting off to one of the best three-year starts in league history. The only players to match or exceed Lamb’s first-three-year totals in receptions (260), receiving yards (3,396) and receiving touchdowns (20) are Jefferson, Odell Beckham Jr., A.J. Green and Michael Thomas. Meanwhile, the people hung up on Prescott’s interception total from last season are willfully subjecting themselves to recency bias. Even after last year’s disaster, Prescott has the fifth-lowest interception rate among 165 players with 2,000 or more pass attempts in their career. The dude is really good, full stop.
Tier 2: Great, but just short of the best
5. Los Angeles Chargers (Avg: 4.4, High: 3, Low: 7) Last year: 1st
QB: Justin Herbert RB: Austin Ekeler WR: Keenan Allen
A change in offensive coordinator from Joe Lombardi to former Cowboys coordinator Kellen Moore should finally get Herbert throwing the ball down the field more often. A player with his skill set ranking 31st out of 35 qualifying quarterbacks in air yards per attempt over the past two seasons is inexcusable. Prescott ranked a much more respectable 11th among the same group of players, and if Moore can nudge Herbert in that direction, L.A. will be better for it. Still, his top two targets are likely to remain Ekeler and Allen, who excel at finding the soft spots underneath and remain absolute target monsters who produce at a high level whenever they’re healthy.
4. Buffalo Bills (Avg: 4.2, High: 3, Low: 6) Last year: 3rd
QB: Josh Allen RB: James Cook WR: Stefon Diggs
Allen has a ceiling as a quarterback that is matched or exceeded by only one player, given his unique physical gifts. Prior to his elbow injury last season, he was hitting that ceiling pretty much weekly. Buffalo’s short-and-quick passing game pretty much disappeared after the injury, though, as Allen’s underneath accuracy became much more scattershot. That affected Diggs’ role in the offense, and he appeared none too happy about it. And yet, this remains one of the best QB-WR connections in the entire league, able to threaten defenses to every level of the field and connect at a high rate. Cook will likely split backfield duties with Damien Harris, but his versatility and facility as a pass-catcher gets him the nod here.
3. Philadelphia Eagles (Avg: 4.1, High: 2, Low: 6) Last year: 16th
QB: Jalen Hurts RB: You Tell Me WR: A.J. Brown
Hurts took a significant step forward last season after the Eagles added Brown, who proved the perfect complement to DeVonta Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert. They were particularly effective on RPO slants and pure deep balls, each of which allow Brown to use his physicality to win at the catch point and his athleticism to turn plays into even bigger gains. Hurts’ ability to morph from a dropback passer into a rushing threat is elite, and the only area where he relatively struggled last season was against the blitz. It remans to be seen how this all looks without former offensive coordinator Shane Steichen, and we have absolutely no idea who among Rashaad Penny, D’Andre Swift, Kenneth Gainwell, and Boston Scott will eventually emerge in the backfield, but there’s a lot to like here no matter what.
Tier 1: A league of their own
2. Kansas City Chiefs (Avg: 1.6, High: 1, Low: 3) Last year: 4th
QB: Patrick Mahomes RB: Isiah Pacheco TE: Travis Kelce
1. Cincinnati Bengals (Avg: 1.5, High: 1, Low: 2) Last year: 2nd
QB: Joe Burrow RB: Joe Mixon WR: Ja’Marr Chase
Kansas City received one stray third-place vote, and that ultimately proved the difference between first and second in this exercise. Patrick Mahomes is the best player on the planet, able to reach heights no other quarterback can achieve due to his unique combination of accuracy, timing, out-of-structure playmaking and arm strength. He and Kelce are the most unstoppable duo in the league, and it almost doesn’t matter what running back you slot alongside them.
That said, I have a feeling the perceived difference between Mixon and Pacheco is what ultimately landed the Bengals in first — even if Mixon was seemingly on the verge of being cut for a portion of this offseason. Burrow and Chase are basically a big play waiting to happen, and the work the entire offense did last year to counteract top-down defenses taking away the deep ball will help them deep into the future.