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2020 DRAFT
Nick Baumgardner of The Athletic reviews the offensive player in the first round of the 2020 draft with two years of evidence:
The future is never final. But at some point, the present needs to be evaluated with past context.
We began this process earlier in the month, when The Athletic’s Diante Lee took a look back at every first-round defender selected in the 2020 NFL Draft, bucketing each selection into three categories: hit, on the fence or whiff. Now let’s do the same with every offensive player selected in Round 1 of that draft.
Some of the players on this list have an opportunity to improve their lot as time goes on. Some don’t. And some don’t need to, as they’re already stars in the NFL entering their third year in the league.
(Editor’s note: This does not include analysis of receiver Henry Ruggs, the No. 12 pick, whom the Las Vegas Raiders released in November 2021 following his involvement in a fatal car crash.)
Hits
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (No. 1)
Folks can debate Burrow versus Justin Herbert if they’d like, but I’m not sure there’s a point. Both have been pretty damn awesome through two seasons. Herbert has better numbers, but Burrow’s also had to deal with an injury — and has the trump card of having already played in a Super Bowl. They are different players, but both are outstanding franchise quarterbacks for their respective organizations.
Burrow was drafted by the worst team in the league, and two years later he’s thrown for 7,299 yards at a clip of 7.9 YPA while tossing 47 touchdowns to just 19 interceptions. Get this man an offensive line, Cincinnati. And then enjoy the ride.
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (No. 6)
Many of the questions surrounding Herbert before the 2020 draft seemed to be based more from a place of curiosity than critique. The questions about why we didn’t see more of the elite flashes, why things didn’t look more efficient all the time — some of that was surface-level nitpicking, and some of that was the result of Herbert playing for three head coaches and three offensive coordinators in four years at Oregon.
He’s been outstanding through two seasons with the Chargers, throwing for 9,350 yards, 69 touchdowns and 25 interceptions while averaging 7.4 YPA. He has the ability to make just about any throw on the field — on the run or from the pocket. We probably haven’t seen his best stuff yet, either.
Tristan Wirfs, OT, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (No. 13)
No one who saw Wirfs work out ahead of the draft is surprised that all of his special athletic gifts have shown up through two years in Tampa. Wirfs is a 6-foot-4, 320-pound freight train with twitch. Big men aren’t supposed to be able to move like this, and nearly all of it, so far, has translated to the field for Wirfs. His flexibility and hand quickness just add to his tool box on the edge, as Wirfs has shown an ability to adjust and recover versus speed and power moves in pass protection. He’s a complete athlete with power throughout his frame, and that allows him to readjust and re-anchor mid-rep, even if a defender has an early advantage on him off the snap.
Wirfs has giant hands (10 1/4 inches), and his punch comes with plenty of power. Consistency with overall hand discipline is still an area where Wirfs can grow, but most complaints about his game would be nitpicks at best. Wirfs has had the good fortune of playing with some terrific players in Tampa, including left tackle Donovan Smith. Wirfs is a right tackle today, but if the time comes when the Bucs want to slide him over to left tackle, he should be able to handle that.
Through two seasons, Wirfs has shown foundational tackle potential.
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys (No. 17)
Lamb plays faster than his 4.5 40 time shows because of his body control and ball skills. He isn’t an overwhelming athlete in terms of testing metrics, but he is a complete athlete in that there aren’t many holes in the overall package. He’s fast enough, explosive enough, agile enough — and he’s very smart. His ball-tracking has been terrific, as Lamb consistently gives himself a chance on just about anything thrown in his general zip code. Lamb continues to catch the ball more with his hands than his body and just doesn’t waste much time with his movements. Very efficient football player in terms of route running, technique and overall discipline. Lamb’s at 153 catches for 2,037 yards and 11 TDs through two seasons.
Dallas played him inside a ton as a rookie in 2020, but Lamb started to show in 2021 that he can walk outside and win, too. He’s improved his hand violence and ability to swat defenders off him in press coverage. As the Cowboys have expanded his route tree and general role in the offense, he’s seemed to respond.
Lamb’s not elite versus press coverage, but he’s certainly good enough to make defenders think twice about their approach — which is often enough to get a win on its own. He plays with total body control before he breaks his routes, and he has enough explosion to wiggle and separate at the top of them. His contested catch rate of 70 percent last season ranked fourth among 45 wide receivers who saw at least 80 targets, according to Pro Football Focus. He seems to get better every time he plays.
Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings (No. 22)
This is arguably the best pick of the first round. We should’ve known by the second catch of his career, when he cooked a nickel on a two-step slant and then found a way to juke an incoming safety — all in the span of about five steps.
Jefferson changes direction with violence. There are reps where he still wastes time at the line of scrimmage versus press, but it often doesn’t matter because DBs are so afraid of his quickness and ability to stop-start without warning. His catch radius is also outstanding; he can high-point and adjust to throws with ease.
Jefferson’s shown elite body control as a receiver who can work inside or out. He runs back to the football, he can create separation in just about any situation, and his route tree is rather limitless. There aren’t many holes here. Jefferson was a slot-exclusive receiver at LSU, and history tells us that was an LSU problem, not a Justin Jefferson problem. Nor a Minnesota Vikings problem.
Through two years, Jefferson’s made 196 receptions for 3,016 yards and 17 touchdowns. He’s caught 69 percent of his targets from Kirk Cousins. His average depth of target, per PFF, has clocked in at an outstanding 12.8 yards. And he’s recorded a whopping 133 receptions for first downs, which ranks fifth since he entered the NFL. Jefferson is already a star.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers (No. 25)
Great fit here, obviously, which makes this a hit. Aiyuk does everything Kyle Shanahan’s offense needs him to, and he does it well. He’s a really, really hard guy to tackle in open space, as Aiyuk is a runner with all gas and explosion in his lower half — his 40-inch vertical shows up on tape. Among 50 wide receivers who’ve received at least 150 targets since 2020, Aiyuk ranks fourth in YAC/reception (5.59), according to TruMedia. He’s totaled 116 catches for 1,564 yards and 10 receiving touchdowns, along with two rushing touchdowns.
After he played just two years in the Pac-12, Aiyuk’s hands improved from Year 1 to Year 2 in the NFL, and his general comfortability with routes also seemed to grow in time. San Francisco’s plan for Aiyuk has been terrific, as he never looks overloaded despite wearing multiple hats.
As the Niners’ passing game grows with Trey Lance, Aiyuk’s maturity as a polished receiver who has natural playmaking ability should continue to expand. Aiyuk has also shown a willingness to work back to the ball consistently, which could be a big help for Lance as he gets moving. This was a great pick at No. 25, and we haven’t seen his best stuff yet.
On the fence
Andrew Thomas, OT, New York Giants (No. 4)
Thomas is very talented offensive lineman with an incomplete picture. He was healthier in 2021, and it showed. His movement was more fluid, and everything about his game, especially pass protection, improved. Thomas’ rookie year was messy, though he had flashes. A very nice day versus Myles Garrett late in the 2020 season might’ve provided some confidence that carried him through 2021.
Thomas has terrific foot speed and agility to go along with 36-inch arms. He showed an ability to mirror and move with agile/quick defenders on the edge at Georgia, and that’s started to show up in the NFL with increased confidence. But there are still moments where Thomas has problems oversetting, which causes him to lose inside.
Thomas was barely 21 when the Giants drafted him. He still has everything he needs to be a foundational tackle; we just need to see refined technique on a more consistent basis.
Jedrick Wills, OT, Cleveland Browns (No. 10)
The power we saw from Wills at Alabama has certainly showed up in Cleveland, as has his general craftiness as a long-armed pass protector with good foot quickness. Wills is a very sturdy football player and, based on the first two years of tape in Cleveland, projects to be exactly that for a good while. But can he go from sturdy to All-Pro? At No. 10, that’ll surely be the hope.
The good news is that the floor with Wills still feels very safe. When he punches defenders, they feel it. His finishing still needs work, though, and that shows up some in his run blocking, as he’s had some issues falling off linebackers at the second level. He’s too powerful not to be a great finisher in the run game, and that, in time, will be his challenge as he continues to work toward his next step as a player.
Mekhi Becton, OT, New York Jets (No. 11)
There’s still plenty to figure out with Becton. He’s a house of a human being and always has been, but he can be impactful at a weight that’s far north of most tackles in the NFL. At 6-7 and more than 350 pounds, he maintains the ability to sink, bend and adjust in ways we just don’t often see from people this big. All of that showed up in stretches during his rookie season, as Becton had his share of impressive moments both in pass protection and as a run blocker. But he can’t play at 400 pounds for a variety of reasons, injury prevention chief among them.
At the same time, a lot of the criticism thrown at him through two years is hot air for hot air’s sake. Becton is still a very gifted football player with potential to be a big-time player both as a run blocker and a blindside protector (he could play right tackle if he had to). General technique remains the biggest obstacle in Becton’s path, and much comes from time on task, as he missed virtually all of last season with a knee injury. His punch was erratic in 2020. There are times when he’s leaning on people instead of hitting them, relying too much on his length and not using his entire body to his advantage. But he’s so twitchy, and his athletic recovery – even at 360-plus pounds – is good enough to where he can get juked by a faster pass rusher, not fall over and still recover in time to make a play. We have to see it all come together, though. Big year ahead.
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos (No. 15)
The good news first: His speed certainly translates to the NFL, as Jeudy’s shown enough speed to beat corners right off the snap with that sort of attacking speed he was known for in college. Defenders in press, or in off coverage, have to constantly be on high alert for go-balls to Jeudy because of how fast he can get them on their heels. He’s shown good use of hand violence with his releases. He’s continued to grow as a player, displaying more answers at the line of scrimmage, which will always be important for him.
Jeudy had 12 drops as a rookie but only two last season. Physically, he gives up size (6-1, 193) but gets it all back with his speed and explosion. Both are legit scary. Jeudy has also played two seasons with inconsistency at quarterback and is about to enter Year 3 with Russell Wilson, so we’ll see how much of an impact that makes with regard to his general consistency.
Still, Jeudy has to be better in all areas that require focus and attention to detail, from consistent route depth to looking the ball all the way in. He’ll also see a lot more targets with Wilson in Denver if he starts working back toward the ball with more consistency.
Cesar Ruiz, C/G, New Orleans Saints (No. 24)
Ruiz needs a big year in 2022 or he’ll slide into the whiff category pretty quickly. The only reason he’s not there now, frankly, is due to the fact New Orleans has moved him back and forth a bit between guard and center. At the same time, that’s a bit understandable, as his early season stretch at center in 2021 was concerning. Ruiz likely needs to be a center in the NFL because that’s where his best value lives, but he has work to do.
Ruiz is athletic enough and quick enough in his lower half to anchor and adjust versus interior pass rushers, but very little about what he does is consistent. It looks great one rep, a mess the next. He’s had issues with stunts both pre- and post-snap. He has to settle down and show an ability to be at his best week-to-week for long stretches. The potential is there, though, to make this a fine pick at No. 24.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (No. 32)
Tough call here. He might already be a hit. He missed roughly a month of last season due to a knee injury and also missed time as a rookie. Injuries happen with running backs, but he’s also still just 23. It feels like there can be more mined out of him in the pass game, and that could be on the way in Kansas City this season. But in the end, Edwards-Helaire still feels like a great fit for everything coach Andy Reid wants to do.
Edwards-Helaire’s skill set also continues to make him a great complement to Patrick Mahomes within this offense. One could argue for Jonathan Taylor or D’Andre Swift here at No. 32 in hindsight, of course. But Edwards-Helaire still absolutely has a chance to be a hit.
Whiffs
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins (No. 5)
To begin with, he hasn’t had much help. The Dolphins’ pass protection (more on that in a second) hasn’t been what it needs to be through Tagovailoa’s two seasons. Jaylen Waddle helps, Mike Gesicki is an interesting tight end, and Tyreek Hill gives Tagovailoa another creator. But no matter how you slice it, Tagovailoa’s been an inconsistent passer through two years in the NFL. Period.
Does that mean the book is closed on Tagovailoa’s career? No. He can still be an effective NFL QB in the right system, but he needs help. Working within a system rooted in the run game like the one Mike McDaniel is installing could provide it. We’ll see. But at No. 5, this has been a whiff.
Austin Jackson, OL, Miami Dolphins (No. 17)
Jackson was a 20-year-old offensive tackle with two years of starting experience at USC when the Dolphins drafted him at No. 17. They had him starting at left tackle by Week 1 of his rookie year. The results were rocky at best, as Jackson’s rookie season featured plenty of issues with overall processing at the line of scrimmage. Being a half-step late off the ball or slow to react to a game or a move was more than enough to cause issues for Jackson, who has played on a bad Dolphins offensive line through two years.
He moved to left guard in Week 5 last season and appears to be bracing for competition at right tackle this year. Jackson is still a plus athlete with a lot of potential, but Miami has done him zero favors thus far, as he could be working at his third position in three years.
Jalen Reagor, WR, Philadelphia Eagles (No. 21)
The Eagles took Reagor one spot before the Vikings took Justin Jefferson. That’s not Reagor’s fault, but for the Eagles, this one might always be impossible to defend. Reagor has the tools to be an impactful slot receiver, but No. 21 felt a bit high for him in 2020 and it still does today. Reagor’s eye discipline and overall issue with drops were real problems in college, and while both have improved in the NFL, he’s still had situational issues in the NFL.
Reagor’s size (5-10, 206) limits his route tree, and his vertical impact in the pass game almost has to be via a complete downfield win, as he’s not going to beat many defenders in the air with consistency. He can be a good player in Philly. Maybe he climbs out of this category soon. But with 62 catches for 676 yards and three touchdowns to his name, this feels like a reach pick.
Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers (No. 26)
Apart from sparking a feelings war between Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers organization, it’s very difficult to see what type of value Love has added to Green Bay’s on-field product through two years as a first-round pick. It’s also pretty much unfair to judge him as a player thus far because nothing about his situation has been normal.
Isaiah Wilson, OT, Tennessee Titans (No. 29)
Wilson played one game with the Titans in 2020 before Tennessee traded him to Miami for a seventh-rounder. He didn’t last a week in Miami. The Giants gave him a chance on the practice squad last fall, and he didn’t stick. It’s been a disaster for Wilson, who turned 23 in February.
We agree that TAGOVAILOA could be better, is no Burrow or Herbert, but we’d still put him “On The Fence.”
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