| NFC NORTH |
| GREEN BAYMatt Verderame (and various other SI.com writers) look at the Packers: The Green Bay Packers have been the NFC’s seventh seed in each of the past two years. And in each instance, they’ve played tough before bowing out. Green Bay comes into the season with a wealth of talent on both sides of the ball, especially on offense. Jordan Love is in his third season as a starter. Josh Jacobs is in his second year with the Packers, having rushed for 1,329 yards and 15 touchdowns in ’24. At receiver, the Packers have many options, including first-round pick Matthew Golden, and veterans Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, and others. Success won’t be measured by Green Bay’s regular-season record but rather by whether Matt LaFleur’s group can be a factor in the postseason. What’s at stake this season: Becoming an NFC powerThe Packers went to the 2020 NFC championship game behind Aaron Rodgers but have won only a single postseason game in the four years since. LaFleur is one of the league’s best coaches and Love leads a roster worthy of being a contender. Love, 26, saw his numbers dip in 2024 after throwing for 4,159 yards and 32 touchdowns in ’23, amassing 3,389 yards and 25 scores in 15 starts after injuring his ankle in Week 1. If the Packers are going to threaten in the NFC North, they need Love to play better and improve in the division. Last season, Green Bay was 10–1 outside the division but went 1–5 inside the NFC North while being swept by the Lions and Vikings. In all four of those games, the Packers fell behind by large margins, putting them in chase mode throughout the second half. For LaFleur and his staff, getting off to significantly better starts will be key for the Packers’ hopes of winning the division for the first time in the Love era. Biggest question going into training camp: Who becomes the top receiver?The Packers have enough pass catchers to spread the ball around. But do they have someone capable of beating a top corner in man coverage or winning on a route in a prominent spot? Reed was the team’s top wideout a year ago, and Golden enters the fray after starring at the University of Texas. LaFleur needs someone to step to the fore and become the top-tier weapon every other NFC North team employs. Without that, Green Bay will always struggle to beat contending teams with its passing game. Sources are saying: Nate Hobbs, CB“Nate Hobbs is an absolute dog. Defensive back with great instincts against the pass and not afraid to stick his nose in there against the run.” —AFC edge rusher Breakout player candidate/X-factor: Rashan Gary, edgeIn six seasons, Gary has never reached double-digit sacks and just twice has notched 20-plus quarterback hits. While Gary made his first Pro Bowl last year, his potential remains untapped. For the Packers to reach their zenith, Gary needs to become an All-Pro candidate, becoming an elite pass rusher instead of merely a good one. If Gary can total a career-high in sacks and 25-plus quarterback hits, Green Bay will have the force it needs off the edge in big games. Head coach-quarterback ranking: 13thThe Packers need Love to be better than last season. The good news? The offense is talented, and he has a top-tier coach in LaFleur, who, since taking over the job in 2019, has gone 67–33 with three playoff wins. Fantasy pick: Jayden ReedReed opened last season on fire from a statistical perspective, but his numbers ultimately failed to meet expectations in fantasy leagues. With the addition of rookies Golden and Savion Williams, Reed’s ADP has predictably fallen to the point where he now could be a fantasy draft bargain. That doesn’t mean he’s going to emerge into a fantasy superstar, but Reed’s role in Green Bay’s offense should be sufficient for him to push for WR3 numbers … and you can draft him as a WR4/WR5. —Michael Fabiano Best bet: Win the NFC North (+260) via DraftKingsWhile the NFC North may be a loaded division this year, the Packers can come out on top. The Bears and Vikings will be finding their stride with young quarterbacks, and the Lions could take a step back after losing both of their coordinators and starting center in the offseason. Love is due for a significant step forward this season, and let’s not forget the Packers finished third in the NFL in net yards per play last season at +0.9. —Iain MacMillan |
| NFC WEST |
| ARIZONAThe DB thinks Arizona could be sneaky good this year, although in a tough division. Here is another sign as QB KYLER MURRAY is going to use all the clubs in his bag in 2025. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com: Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray said early in the offseason that he feels fully recovered from his 2022 torn ACL and that makes him want to run more this season in order to unleash the full potential of the team’s offense. Murray’s goals didn’t change over the course of the team’s offseason program and it has veteran safety Budda Baker excited about what’s to come in the fall. Baker told Mina Kimes of ESPN that he thinks Murray has become underrated because he hasn’t been utilizing his full skill set and that seeing him put it all into play this spring is “definitely exciting” because of what it will mean once it is time to play games. “He’s kind of been in his bag this whole offseason, doing no-look throws and having a great offseason training camp,” Baker said. “K1, he’s going to run a little bit more. A little outside the pocket, inside the pocket throws. He’s going to kind of do it all and he’s going to get all his guys the rock.” The Cardinals won eight games last season after posting eight over the previous two seasons, so the arrow is pointing up in Arizona. Murray staying in his bag for the rest of the year would be a good way to push them even higher in 2025. We’re not sure why it’s thought he hasn’t been running like he used to. In his six-year career, Murray has averaged 36.8 rush yards per game. In 2023, he was at a career low 30.5 rush yards per game in an 8-game season. Last year, 33.6. In 2020, Murray rushed for 51.2 yards per game. His other five seasons are all in the 30s. 2019 34.0 2020 51.2 2021 30.2 2022 38.0 2023 30.5 2024 33.6 |
| AFC WEST |
| DENVERIn his efforts to prove illegal and unethical and immoral collusion by the NFL and its owners, Mike Florio zeroes in on Denver’s negotiations with QB RUSSELL WILSON. System Arbitrator Christopher Droney had no choice but to find that the NFL tried to get its teams to collude regarding guaranteed contracts, given the black-and-white clarity of the evidence. Regarding whether the teams followed the league’s lead, Droney ignored strong circumstantial evidence. Plenty of the evidence comes from the negotiations between the Broncos and quarterback Russell Wilson. Wilson testified that, early in his discussions with the Broncos, he requested a seven-year, fully-guaranteed contract that would pay “around $50 million a year.” The Broncos, said Wilson, “didn’t blink.” The trade that sent Wilson to Denver became official on March 16, 2022. In the following days, something changed. “I would say shortly after [the trade], maybe within the next ten days or so, they started getting cold feet on this fully guaranteed thing,” Wilson testified in the hearing. Coincidentally — or not — “the NFL Management Council, with the blessing of the Commissioner, encouraged the 32 NFL Clubs to reduce guarantees in veterans’ contracts at the March 2022 annual owners’ meeting,” as Droney concluded. The encouragement happened on March 28, only 12 days afer the Wilson trade was announced. Is it really a surprise, then, that the Broncos backpedaled? The backpedaling continued through August, when the team was sold to the Walton-Penner group. After the sale became final, a deal with Wilson was pursued. The Broncos, despite Wilson’s testimony that the team “didn’t blink” at the prospect of a fully-guaranteed deal, took the position that a fully-guaranteed contract like Deshaun Watson’s “was a non starter.” During the talks, Broncos owner Greg Penner told other members of the Denver ownership group that “there’s not[h]ing in here that other owners will consider off market (e.g. like the Watson guarantees).” Later, Penner told his partners that G.M. George Paton “feels very good about it for us as a franchise and the benchmark it sets (versus Watson) for the rest of the league.” Those comments are as powerful as the smoking-gun text exchange between Chargers owner Dean Spanos and Cardinals owner Michael Bidwill regarding the Kyler Murray deal. They are circumstantial evidence of the existence of an agreement among owners to hold down guarantees, and of a desire by Penner and the Broncos to comply with it. Why else would Penner care about other owners and other teams when negotiating a contract with Wilson? When Penner was the CEO of WalMart, did he care about the impact his decisions regarding key employee pay may have on Target’s compensation structure for similar employees? The evidence of collusion was right there. Droney blew it. There’s no other way to put it. And the NFL Players Association continues to blow it by not publicizing the contents of the 61-page ruling. We’re not sure that the evidence is as smoking as Florio thinks. The Broncos “didn’t blink” (according to Wilson’s memory, we don’t see anything in writing that backs up that contention) under one ownership group. When Penner took over, and we already saw he was skeptical about even giving Wilson any kind of new contract, things changed a bit (remember Wilson’s deal was 67% guaranteed as it ended up being signed, not 0%). The fact that Penner knows that the NFL doesn’t like guaranteed contracts isn’t some revelation. We all know it. Just like he would indeed have some general interest in what Target paid its employees. There is no showing, or even a hint of a showing, that Penner and the Broncos would have been punished if they guaranteed Wilson. And this really isn’t the right contract to argue that Wilson was disadvantaged. He still received above market compensation for below market production. |
| KANSAS CITYWith the Bengals staying in Ohio, all eyes are on whether or not the Kansas City Chiefs will be leaving Missouri. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com: The Chiefs have leverage. And they’re using it. With both Missouri and Kansas offering stadium deals, the Chiefs want more time to decide whether to proceed with a new domed stadium in Kansas. Via Sam McDowell of the Kansas City Star, the Kansas Legislative Coordinating Council plans to consider extending the deadline during a July 7 meeting. In a letter released by the KLLC on Thursday, Chiefs president Mark Donovan requested an extension of the June 30 deadline. “We believe the foundation is in place for something truly historic — not only for our team but for the future of the state’s economy and national profile,” Donovan wrote. So, yes, the Chiefs are creating the impression that they’re seriously considering their options in Kansas. Which, whether they intend it or not, will potentially get them a better package from Missouri. The two states provide very different options for the Chiefs. In Missouri, the Chiefs would have a $1.15 billion renovation of Arrowhead Stadium. In Kansas, the Chiefs would have a $3 billion domed stadium. The domed stadium carries another potential benefit. A Kansas City Super Bowl. Could that make the difference? Time will tell. Although it is not official, the new Chiefs stadium, if it is indeed in Kansas would not be very close to the Missouri line. It would be well west of both Kansas City, Missouri and Kansas City, Kansas in western Wyandotte County, near the Kansas Speedway and Sporting KC’s soccer stadium. That’s about 15 miles west of the Missouri-Kansas line along I-70. The current Arrowhead Stadium is about 10 miles east of the line in Missouri. So parts of Kansas are more centrally located in the KCMOKN area than where Arrowhead now sits. But that’s not where they are going to build the stadium.- – -Meanwhile, the Kelce brothers heighten the anticipation that the Chiefs struck gold late in the first round with OT JOSH SIMMONS. Andy Backstrom of YahooSports.com: Jason Kelce knows a thing or two about great left tackles. Before he played alongside Jordan Mailata, a second-team All-Pro this past season, Kelce shared a Philadelphia Eagles offensive line with a two-time first-team All-Pro and nine-time Pro Bowler at the position: Jason Peters. When Kelce, a six-time first-team All-Pro center, talks line play, his words carry the weight he used to move around in the trenches. During the latest episode of the “New Heights” podcast, Kelce didn’t hold back when discussing one of the league’s newest left tackles, Kansas City Chiefs first-round pick Josh Simmons. “I’ve watched a lot of these linemen coming out the last few years,” Jason Kelce said to his co-host and brother Travis Kelce, as well as to their guest, Chiefs right guard Trey Smith. “This kid, I mean he is the closest thing I’ve seen to like a Trent Williams. … That next-level strength and athleticism.” Williams was the league’s top left tackle not too long ago. The now-36-year-old and 11-time Pro Bowler made a run of three straight first-team All-Pro seasons with the San Francisco 49ers from 2021-23. Before Simmons can even start his journey to that kind of prestige, the former San Diego State and Ohio State lineman will have to complete his recovery from last year’s ACL tear that dropped him to the end of the first round of April’s NFL Draft. Then he’ll have to win a training camp position battle against Jaylon Moore, whom the Chiefs signed to a two-year deal this offseason. Moore spent his first four NFL seasons with the 49ers, mostly backing up Williams. The Chiefs are looking for an answer at left tackle this season after going through four starters at the position in 2024. The 6-foot-5, 310-pound Simmons could fit the bill. “To me, watching the tape [from] college, it was absurd,” Jason said of Simmons. “The athletic ability and size. Trav knows because I’ve been watching this dude, and I’ve been preaching.” Travis interjected. “I’ve seen it,” the Chiefs superstar tight end said on “New Heights,” recalling a memory from Chiefs mandatory minicamp. “He was playing defensive end, just like a scout team defensive end. And he was just playing his gap. But he was being a pro. He was being locked in and being a pro, and I felt that man’s hands grab me, and I was like, ‘Alright! Alright!’ I got to come with it, even when he’s just giving the looks. I got to make sure I’ve got my feet planted, man.” Simmons was enjoying a breakout season at Ohio State last fall before going down with his season-ending knee injury on the road against Oregon on Oct. 12. He hadn’t allowed a sack in 2024, according to Pro Football Focus, which also had him down for just one pressure conceded and one penalty committed in six games last season. “I haven’t seen him in action, but I just heard that he is so strong, like unbelievably strong,” said Smith, who made the Pro Bowl at right guard last season. “Obviously the talent is there, man. I’ve seen some of his film as well, and [he] obviously got a chance to win a natty last year. Shout out to him. But I think he is going to be a great asset to the team, and I’m looking forward to it.” |
| AFC NORTH |
| BALTIMOREIf someone takes a chance on PK JUSTIN TUCKER, they won’t have his services until after midseason. Amos Morale III of The Athletic on his 10-game suspension: Former Baltimore Ravens kicker Justin Tucker has been suspended for the first 10 weeks of the 2025 regular season for violations of the NFL’s personal conduct policy, the league announced Thursday. Tucker, who was released by the Ravens following multiple allegations of sexually inappropriate behavior by Baltimore-area massage therapists, will be eligible for reinstatement on Nov. 11. The NFL had been investigating the allegations, which were made public in a series of reports by The Baltimore Banner in January. Tucker was accused of inappropriate sexual behavior by 16 Baltimore-area massage therapists from eight different spas in alleged incidents dating back to 2012. “The NFL’s findings validate the experiences told by each of the victims,” Michael Belsky, an attorney representing many of the accusers, said in a statement. “It would have been so simple for Mr. Tucker to just apologize many months ago. Instead, by attacking the credibility of the victims, he re-victimized them. This was not necessary and should not be acceptable.” Tucker has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing, calling the allegations “unequivocally false.” “We are disappointed with the NFL’s decision,” Tucker’s agent, Rob Roche, said in a statement to The Athletic. “Justin has always strived to carry himself in a way that would make his family and community proud. He stands by his previous statements.” Roche added that he had advised Tucker to accept the suspension “in order to put this difficult episode behind him and get back on the field as soon as possible.” In April, the Ravens selected kicker Tyler Loop in the sixth round of the NFL Draft, then released Tucker on May 5 for “football reasons.” The five-time All-Pro was coming off a career-worst season with eight missed field goal attempts in 2024. Ravens coach John Harbaugh told reporters in May that releasing Tucker was “complex” and a “multi-layered decision.” “If it was just a black and white simple thing, then it would be easy to understand,” Harbaugh said. “But I think anybody can look at the whole thing in perspective and say, ‘OK, we’ve got to have a kicker ready to go,’ and there’s a whole lot of moving parts of that deal.” Tucker is currently a free agent, but if he is signed by a team in the offseason, he will be able to participate in minicamp and preseason games. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com with more on how the suspension came to be: The 10-game suspension imposed on Ravens kicker Justin Tucker was not the result of a quasi-formal hearing followed by a quasi-legal ruling. Instead, the punishment flowed from negotiations between and among the NFL, the NFL Players Association, and Tucker’s representatives. That’s the word from Mark Maske of the Washington Post, which also means that there will be no appeal from Tucker. The case is over, the suspension is final, and Tucker will miss 10 games without pay to begin the 2025 season. On the surface, the willingness of Tucker to take a 10-game suspension contradicts his steadfast denial of wrongdoing, based on accusations from multiple individuals regarding misconduct during massage-therapy sessions. Tucker essentially pleaded guilty (or at a minimum no contest) and accepted a 10-game banishment. Tucker may have done it in order to expedite the outcome of the case. No one has shown interest in him since he was cut by the Ravens. No one would have shown interest in him while the situation was unresolved. Then there’s the possibility that the league planned to seek a longer punishment if/when the case went before Judge Sue L. Robinson, the hearing officer for alleged violations of the Personal Conduct Policy. If the league planned to push for, say, a full-season suspension, 10 games would be a potential compromise. Regardless, Tucker has accepted a 10-game suspension. And it’s hard to reconcile that with his claim that he did nothing to justify scrutiny. |
| THIS AND THAT |
| FRIENDLY DEALSDan Graziano of ESPN.com looks at the two sides of the spectrum – teams that are getting a bargain from underpaid players and players who are stealing money (actually it’s a little more complicated than that as Graziano explains): The topic of the “best” and “worst” contracts in the NFL is complex because of the complexity of league’s contract structure. Sure, we can take a look at Deshaun Watson’s fully guaranteed five-year, $230 million deal with the Browns and throw it right into the second bucket. Complete disaster for the team. Watson was suspended for the first 11 games of the deal and hasn’t been able to show consistent health or play in any of its first three years. He’s injured now and could sit out the upcoming season, and the Browns still have to pay him a fully guaranteed $46 million for 2025 and again in 2026. Catastrophe. But not all of these cases are so simple. In 2023, Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts signed a contract that briefly made him the highest-paid player in the league (until Lamar Jackson and others surpassed him in that same offseason). But the structure of Hurts’ five-year, $255 million deal is very team-friendly, allowing the Eagles to continually convert option bonuses that help them spread out the salary cap hits and keep Hurts’ cap number down. For example, Hurts will earn $42.5 million in cash this year while his cap hit sits a shade under $22 million. Doing a team-friendly structure didn’t necessarily cost Hurts a ton of money. And like Patrick Mahomes before him, Hurts has signaled a willingness to help the team manage its cap so it can continue to keep the roster strong around him. The Eagles having just won the Super Bowl in the second year of Hurts’ extension offers support for his decision. But in terms of dollars, Hurts certainly could have held the Eagles’ feet to the fire by waiting to sign his extension or insisting on more money up front. In the context of franchise QB contracts leaguewide, Hurts’ is among the more team-friendly. So that’s what we want to do here. This isn’t about labeling contracts as the “best” or “worst,” because a lot of that depends on perspective. A contract that’s “bad” for the team could be “great” for the player, and vice versa. We wanted to highlight a couple of position groups and look at the poles in each — some of the most team-friendly deals versus some of the most player-friendly deals — and explain why. We begin, as we always seem to, with the quarterbacks. Quarterback Team-friendly deal: Sam Darnold, Seattle SeahawksThe deal: Three years, $100.5 million with $37.5 million fully guaranteed at signing and $55 million in total guarantees Darnold was an unrestricted free agent this offseason, when most teams believed there weren’t many great quarterback options. So for Seattle to get him on this deal is impressive, especially after he threw 35 touchdown passes last season with the Vikings. The Seahawks have a longstanding policy of not guaranteeing any money in veteran contracts outside of the first year. So Darnold’s full guarantee consists of his $32 million signing bonus, his $5.3 million 2025 salary and his $200,000 workout bonus. That’s it. If the Seahawks want to walk away after this season, they’d owe him no more than that $37.5 million. If Darnold is still on the Seahawks’ roster five days after the Super Bowl this season, then his $15 million 2026 roster bonus becomes fully guaranteed, as does $2.5 million of his $12.3 million in 2026 salary. So if Seattle makes the Super Bowl, it would have to make a decision right after the season. (But let’s be honest, if the Seahawks play in the Super Bowl this season, Darnold will probably have played well enough to stick around another year for that price.) If Darnold plays out the first two years of this contract, he’ll have made $65 million. If he plays all three, he’ll get the full $100.5 million. That’s still just $33.5 million per year, which makes Darnold the 18th highest-paid quarterback in the league by average annual salary. Team-friendly deal. Player-friendly deal: Dak Prescott, Dallas CowboysThe deal: Four years, $240 million with $129 million fully guaranteed at signing and $231 million in total guarantees Prescott took this right out to the end. With one year left on his contract last offseason, he didn’t sign this extension until literally the morning of Dallas’ Week 1 game. Had the deal not been done before kickoff that day, it’s possible Prescott could have played out the 2024 season and become an unrestricted free agent. After all, the previous extension he signed with Dallas in 2021 contained a clause prohibiting the Cowboys from using the franchise tag on him. Waiting paid off for Prescott. He collected a $78,458,333 signing bonus — technically an $80 million signing bonus that somewhat hilariously had to be prorated down because players had already been paid their Week 1 salaries by the time he signed the deal — and another $7.8 million in cash in 2024. The deal also included a guaranteed $47.75 million for 2025, and an injury-guaranteed $40 million for 2026 that converted to a full guarantee this past March. So what makes this deal player-friendly (other than the no-franchise clause, the no-trade clause and the massive signing bonus)? If the Cowboys were to release Prescott right now, he’d still have collected a total of $174 million for one season. Prescott’s deal continues to benefit him at a high level. His $45 million 2027 salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s still on the Cowboys’ roster on the fifth day of the 2026 league year (next March), and $17 million of his $55 million 2028 salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s on the roster on the fifth day of the 2027 league year. The odds of Prescott seeing the full $231 million in guarantees (no coincidence, by the way, that number is $1 million higher than Watson’s $230 million) are extremely high. One bit of consolation for the Cowboys? Because of the insurance policy they have, and because Prescott sat out the final nine games of the 2024 season because of a hamstring injury, the Cowboys were able to recoup about $6.4 million of the signing bonus. But Prescott didn’t have to pay that back; the insurance company did. Player-friendly deal. Running back Team-friendly deal: Josh Jacobs, Green Bay PackersThe deal: Four years, $48 million with $12.5 million fully guaranteed at signing and $12.5 million in total guarantees Last offseason, when Saquon Barkley was cashing in big as a free agent and running backs in general were getting deals it appeared they’d never get again, the Packers signed Jacobs as a relative bargain. Jacobs was only 26 when he signed the deal, but the reason it’s a good deal for the Packers is that they made no commitment to him beyond that first year. Jacobs received a $12.5 million signing bonus, a non-guaranteed $1.2 million salary and some workout and per-game roster bonuses that pushed his total 2024 compensation up to $14.8 million. Three running backs — Barkley, Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry — currently average more than that per season, so it’s good money for one season. But Jacobs delivered, rushing for 1,329 yards and 15 touchdowns in his first season in Green Bay. And if the Packers decided they wanted or needed to move on from him this offseason, they’d only have been out that $14.8 million. Of course, they aren’t doing that; he’s 27 years old and just had a huge season. So they’ll keep him this year and pay him another $8.2 million — $1.17 million in base salary, a $5.93 million roster bonus, a $600,000 workout bonus and $500,000 in per-game roster bonuses as long as he plays all 17 games. (The Packers like to avoid future-year guarantees in veteran contracts.) If the Packers cut Jacobs after this season, they’d have paid him $23 million over two years — an average of $11.5 million per year, which ranks sixth among running backs. Totally reasonable, especially given the way he has performed. Unless the Packers reward Jacobs with an extension after his strong first season — the way the Eagles did with Barkley and the Ravens did with Henry — he’ll continue to be one of the best values in the league at his position. And if his play falls off, Green Bay can cut him without owing him any money. Player-friendly deal: Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas RaidersThe deal: Four years, $35,895,812 fully guaranteed at signing, plus a fifth-year team option for 2029 We’re using this deal to make a point. There’s nothing the Raiders could do about this. Once they picked Jeanty at No. 6 in this year’s draft, this was going to be his contract; rookie deals are slotted, and first-round picks get their deals fully guaranteed. But we use Jeanty’s deal here to highlight the reasons that taking a running back this high in the draft represents poor value. Right now, there is exactly one running back in the league whose contract contains more fully guaranteed money than Jeanty’s deal: Barkley. Jeanty’s average annual salary of $8,973,953 also ranks 11th among all NFL running backs. He has not yet carried the ball once in an NFL game, and yet only 10 players at his position make more money than him. Rookie deals are player-friendly because they’re fully guaranteed, but the position value makes a running back picked in the top 10 look as if he hit the lottery. Quarterback Cameron Ward, the No. 1 pick in this year’s draft, will make about $12.2 million per year on his rookie deal, which ranks 23rd among quarterbacks at the moment. Mason Graham, the defensive tackle taken one spot before Jeanty, will make about $10.2 million per year, which ranks 30th among defensive tackles. Jeanty might be a fine player for the Raiders. He might even be an outstanding one. But a rookie running back deal for a player who’s the No. 6 pick offers no value whatsoever to the team and is something like free money for the player. From the Raiders’ standpoint, the best-case scenario is that Jeanty plays like a top-11 running back in the league for three or four years while earning top-11 running back money and then they end up having to pay him even more. Wide receiver Team-friendly deal: DK Metcalf, Pittsburgh SteelersThe deal: Four years, $132 million with $60 million fully guaranteed at signing and $60 million in total guarantees This looks like a pretty sweet deal for Metcalf, who has averaged 73 catches per season in his six-year NFL career and has caught 90 balls in a season only once. But in the current galaxy of top wide receiver contracts, this one isn’t so bad for the team. The Steelers will pay the 27-year-old Metcalf $35 million this year — a $30 million signing bonus and a $5 million salary — and $25 million in 2026. After that, it’s completely up to them. His 2027 salary of $20 million never becomes guaranteed, against injury or otherwise. Metcalf does have a little bit of roster bonus protection. If he’s still on the roster on the third day of the 2027 league year, the Steelers will pay him a $6.5 million roster bonus. On the third day of the 2028 and 2029 league years would come a $5 million roster bonus in each. So if they wanted to cut him after 2026, they’d have to do it by the third day of the league year in March 2027 to avoid paying him another $6.5 million. But that’s not likely to be much of a deterrent if they go in that direction, and it appears Metcalf is aware of that being a potential tipping point. Looking at a copy of his contract, he signed the page about the 2027 roster bonus with a smiley face next to his name. He didn’t do that on any other page of the contract. So this is really a two-year commitment, and both sides seem to know it. Given what top wideouts are making these days, how badly the Steelers needed one and Metcalf’s relatively young age, it’s a nice deal for Pittsburgh. Player-friendly deal: Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati BengalsThe deal: Four years, $161 million with $73.9 million fully guaranteed at signing and $112 million in total guarantees Chase leveraged his brilliant first four seasons (5,425 receiving yards and 46 TD catches) and the endorsement of quarterback Joe Burrow into a contract that right now makes him the league’s highest-paid non-quarterback. He also got the Bengals, who until Burrow had never guaranteed money outside of the signing bonus in a veteran contract, to include future-year guarantees. Chase will receive: $8.07 million in 2025 salary Separate 2025 roster bonuses of $22 million and $10 million $1 million in per-game roster bonuses that were guaranteed at signing A $100,000 offseason workout bonus That’s a total of $41.17 million fully guaranteed in the first year of the deal. This replaced the $21.8 million he was set to make this season on the fifth-year option from his rookie deal. He also gets $32.73 million in 2026 salary and bonuses, which were fully guaranteed at signing. His 2027 salary of $28.9 million is guaranteed against injury and becomes fully guaranteed if he’s on the Bengals’ roster on the fifth day of the 2026 league year (along with his $1 million in 2026 per-game roster bonuses). His 2028 salary is $31.9 million, of which $7 million is already guaranteed against injury and becomes fully guaranteed if he’s on the roster on the fifth day of the 2027 league year. So … if the Bengals wanted to cut Chase after this season, they’d have paid him $73.9 million for one season. If they wanted to cut him after 2026, they’d have paid him $73.9 million for two seasons. If they wanted to cut him after 2027, they’d have paid him $103.8 million for three seasons — which is still $34.6 million per year. The fact that Chase and his agent got the Bengals — who loathe future-year guarantees like poison — to do this deal is a triumph that contract historians are likely to study for years to come. Edge rusher Team-friendly deal: Maxx Crosby, Las Vegas RaidersThe deal: Three years, $106.5 million with $62.5 million guaranteed at signing and $91.5 million in total guarantees Crosby had two years left on his previous contract when he and the Raiders agreed on a new deal this past spring. The new deal effectively extended his contract through 2029 but also made some alterations to the final two years of his previous deal. His previous extension (signed in the spring of 2024) included $23.118 million in salary and bonuses for 2025 and $19.722 million in salary and bonuses for 2026, none of which was guaranteed. The new deal guarantees him $32.5 million in 2025 and $30 million in 2026. So it’s a nice raise and improved security over what he signed the year before. There are two ways to look at this. Crosby is now scheduled to make $149.34 million over the next five years — an average of $29.868 million, which would rank him fifth among edge rushers. But if you take just the new money — the $106.5 million — and divide it by the three new years, that’s an average of $35.5 million per year, which ranks him third behind only Myles Garrett and Danielle Hunter. The deal is team-friendly because the Raiders (who don’t put signing bonuses in their veteran deals and therefore don’t have dead-money problems when they decide to release a player) aren’t committed to Crosby beyond 2026. His $29 million 2027 salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s still on the roster in March 2026, but that still means they’d end up paying him a little more than $29 million per year over 2024-27. Crosby is only 27 years old. And given his production (59.5 sacks over six seasons), he probably could have squeezed the Raiders for more. He loves being a Raider and has said he wanted to structure his deal to help the organization manage its cap around him. That’s to the team’s benefit, which is why this qualifies as a team-friendly deal. Player-friendly deal: Danielle Hunter, Houston TexansThe deal: Two years, $49 million with $48 million fully guaranteed — plus a one-year, $35.6 million extension Follow along with me, if you will. As an unrestricted free agent in 2024, Hunter signed with Houston for $49 million over two years. Of that $49 million, $48 million was fully guaranteed at signing (in case you’re wondering just how averse NFL team owners are to fully guaranteed deals). Hunter received a $21 million signing bonus and $8.5 million in salary and bonuses in the first year of the deal, so he collected $29.5 million in cash in 2024. (This included $500,000 in per-game roster bonuses that were not guaranteed, but he played all 17 games so he got them all.) His original deal also guaranteed him $19 million in 2025 salary (plus another non-guaranteed $500,000 in per-game roster bonuses). So the Texans got to this offseason and were looking at having Hunter under contract for one year and $19.5 million. Nice deal for them if they did nothing. But Hunter was coming off a 12-sack season and deserved a raise. With only one year left on the deal, the Texans didn’t want to risk letting him play out the deal and leave as a free agent next year, so they did an extension. The new deal increases his 2025 pay from $19.5 million to $32 million (of which $31.5 million is guaranteed) and adds a 2026 season that includes $22.6 million fully guaranteed. All told, Hunter will end up making $61.5 million in his first two years in Houston and a fully guaranteed $84.1 million over his first three. And because he was extended for only one year, another strong season by him would put Houston in the same boat next offseason of having to extend him again or let him play out the final year of his contract. Cornerback Team-friendly deal: Pat Surtain II, Denver BroncosThe deal: Four years, $96 million with $40,688,565 fully guaranteed at signing and $77.5 million in total guarantees Surtain signed this deal just before the start of the 2024 season, which would prove to be a massive season for him and earn him the Defensive Player of the Year award. Maybe he should have waited until after the season and after the Jaycee Horn and Derek Stingley Jr. deals came in, and asked the Broncos if either of them has ever won DPOY. Though Surtain’s deal is strong, it shouldn’t rank behind those two players. Surtain received a $15 million signing bonus, a fully guaranteed $3.519 million in 2024 and a fully guaranteed $22.17 million in 2025. His $17.632 million in 2026 compensation was injury-guaranteed at signing and became fully guaranteed this past March, so he’s sure to have earned $58.321 million over the first three years of the deal. That’s an average of $19.44 million per year. Contrast that with Horn, who will earn $64.472 million over the first three years of his deal in Carolina, and it looks as if the Broncos got a bargain (more on Horn’s deal in a moment). You could make the case that Surtain did his deal too early or that Horn was smart to wait, but looking at the two deals next to each other makes you scratch your head. The better player at the same position got $6 million less in total guarantees. And sure, Surtain landed $11 million more in injury guarantees, but he has never been injured. And Horn has been a lot. Surtain’s deal turned out to be great for the Broncos, who probably confront a need to give him a raise if he keeps playing the way he has been playing and the cornerback market continues to race past him. Player-friendly deal: Jaycee Horn, Carolina PanthersThe deal: Four years, $100 million with $46.707 million fully guaranteed at signing and $72 million in total guarantees Horn signed his extension in March, six months after Surtain signed his extension with the Broncos. Horn got a $28.402 million signing bonus, a fully guaranteed $1.67 million in 2025 and a fully guaranteed $16.635 million in 2026. His average annual salary of $25 million is the second highest of any corner in the league, surpassed only by Stingley, who signed about a week later and could also have been the example here. The reason we picked Horn is because he managed to get a top-two CB deal after four years in the league, during which he has played only 37 of a possible 68 games. Horn is a nice player, still only 25 years old and coming off a largely healthy season that landed him his first Pro Bowl nod. But he has been inconsistent in terms of health throughout his career and now has a deal that fully guarantees him money in 2026 and includes almost $23 million in total injury guarantees in 2027 and 2028. Basically, Horn and his agent got the Panthers to bet big that the injury issues will stay behind him and that he’ll blossom into the player they believed they were getting with the No. 8 pick in the 2021 draft. But that’s a pretty big bet in a risk-averse league, and the fact that Horn was able to top Surtain makes this contract a big, big win. Safety Team-friendly deal: Kerby Joseph, Detroit LionsThe deal: Four years, $86 million with $24.381 million fully guaranteed at signing and $36.121 million in total guarantees Joseph received a $10.011 million signing bonus and a fully guaranteed $1.61 million in 2025, a fully guaranteed $11.5 million in 2026 and a fully guaranteed $1.26 million in 2027. It’s always good to get any fully guaranteed money in the third year, so we’re not sneezing at that. But overall, Joseph’s deal seems to fall short of other players at his position who’ve signed recently. Camryn Bynum’s free agent deal with the Colts this offseason, for example, includes an $18 million signing bonus and $26 million in full guarantees. If Joseph sticks around, he stands to make $18.5 million in 2027, $21 million in 2028 and $26 million in 2029. But those years are a long way off, and the only guarantees they include are that $1.26 million in 2027. If the Lions want to, they can get out of this deal after the 2026 season having paid Joseph a total of $24.381 million. And Joseph’s deal should be quite helpful for the Lions, whose list of extension-eligible players over the next calendar year and a half includes Aidan Hutchinson, Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, Jack Campbell and Brian Branch. Player-friendly deal: Antoine Winfield Jr., Tampa Bay BuccaneersThe deal: Four years, $84.1 million with $45 million fully guaranteed at signing and $45 million in total guarantees Winfield is the league’s second-highest paid safety by average annual salary, just slightly behind Joseph. But the rest of the deal is great for Winfield in comparison. Winfield got a $20 million roster bonus in 2024 and fully guaranteed salaries of $4 million in 2024 and $21 million in 2025. He’s sure to make $45 million over the first two years of the deal and would make $64.5 million over the first three if he stays in Tampa Bay. It’s strong money, given the rest of the safety market. |
| THE ALL BARGAIN TEAMCody Benjamin of CBSSports.com has a team, QB’d by JAYDEN DANIELS on his rookie deal, that can compete on a budget. Is it possible to prioritize affordable players and still assemble a title-caliber lineup? We attempted to answer that very question by constructing an All-Bargain Team from Pete Prisco’s 2025 ranking of the NFL’s top 100 players. Here’s how we did it: Twenty-two (22) different players were selected: 11 offensive starters and 11 defensive starters.Only players on Pete Prisco’s Top 100 list were eligible for selection.Players had to fit under an imaginary $139.6 million salary cap. This number was chosen because it is half the actual 2025 salary cap, reflecting the All-Bargain Team’s reduced roster size.Players’ individual 2025 salary cap hits were used to calculate their “cost.”Without further ado, our 2025 All-Bargain Team, which was carefully built to contend (and still had $1.4 million in cap space to spare): Jayden DanielsWAS • QB • #5Prisco rank: 33 | Cap hit: $8.6MDaniels is the “elite quarterback on a rookie deal” fantasy brought to life. The Commanders’ dynamic dual threat wasn’t just efficient and explosive as a rookie quarterback; he was also unmoved by the moment, nearly dragging Washington all the way to the Super Bowl. Could he take a step back in Year 2? Sure. If he’s healthy, though, we have no reason to believe he will. Regardless, he’s a financial steal. Jahmyr GibbsDET • RBPrisco rank: 32 | Cap hit: $4.9MWe don’t talk enough about the impact Gibbs had on the Lions’ all-star offense in 2024. In just his second NFL season, the former first-round pick approached 2,000 scrimmage yards and scored 20 total touchdowns, even while initially splitting touches with David Montgomery. He’s lightning in a bottle. He’s also a prime candidate to join the likes of Saquon Barkley as a top-paid ball-carrier in the coming years. Justin JeffersonMIN • WR • #18Prisco rank: 5 | Cap hit: $15.2MJefferson accounts for the largest 2025 cap hit on our All-Bargain Team’s payroll, but the truth is he’s a steal at any price. Five years in, he’s already well clear of 7,000 receiving yards for his career. And he just makes it all look so easy; there isn’t another wideout who makes splash plays more routine. The Vikings compensate him well, but the rest of the NFL would love to have him as a quarterback’s best friend. Brian Thomas Jr.JAC • WR • #7Prisco rank: 44 | Cap hit: $3.3MThe Jaguars were mostly a trainwreck in 2024, but Thomas transcended the offense as a first-year starter, eclipsing 1,200 yards and reeling in 10 touchdowns as the sole reliable weapon in their pass game. His numbers may dip with the arrival of Travis Hunter, but they may also improve, given defenses will need to account for both field-stretchers. Either way, he’s due to keep outperforming his rookie contract. Puka NacuaLAR • WR • #12Nacua was a Day 3 flyer by the Rams in the 2023 draft, arriving in the fifth round. Accordingly, his rookie deal is ridiculously affordable considering the workload he’s earned in Los Angeles. Injuries limited the rugged BYU product to 11 games in Year 2, but he’s been an absolute target machine for Matthew Stafford when on the field, racking up 184 catches and nearly 2,500 yards in his first two NFL seasons. Brock BowersLV • TE • #89Prisco rank: 22 | Cap hit: $4.1MThe tight end market isn’t the most robust, so even as a top-15 pick in 2024, Bowers isn’t hauling in a lucrative sum. He was, however, a bona fide star for the Raiders out of the gate, easily emerging as Las Vegas’ most trustworthy pass outlet with a rookie-record 112 catches. That volume may not be sustainable if the silver and black go run-heavy under Pete Carroll, but who cares? He looks like an elite No. 1. Tristan WirfsTB • OT • #78Prisco rank: 20 | Cap hit: $11.5MThis is where we had to get a little picky, because there aren’t a ton of above-average left tackles who haven’t been rewarded with high-end contracts. Wirfs, however, is certainly under-market for 2025, fresh off his first All-Pro nod at the position. Still just 26, he’s now given Pro Bowl-level protection to both Tom Brady and Baker Mayfield in Tampa, successfully transitioning from the right side a few years back. Tyler SmithDAL • OT • #73Prisco rank: 98 | Cap hit: $4.3MThe Cowboys have a strong history of unearthing reliable interior blockers, and Smith is part of that trend after converting from left tackle following a solid 2022 debut. Now entrenched as Dallas’ left guard, the former Tulsa standout is due a major pay raise in 2026, when a fifth-year option would pay him north of $20 million. Until then, he registers as a pleasantly affordable option in the heart of the trenches. Tyler LinderbaumBAL • C • #64Prisco rank: 53 | Cap hit: $4.2MThe Ravens recently declined Linderbaum’s fifth-year option, which would’ve made him one of the game’s highest-paid centers come 2026. That’s not necessarily an indictment of his value in Baltimore. He’s arguably gotten better with each NFL season, missing just two games in three years, and his road-grading at the core of the Ravens’ front helped pave the way for Derrick Henry’s 2024 rushing showcase. Quinn MeinerzDEN • C • #77Prisco rank: 51 | Cap hit: $5.5MAfter two years as a solid, if unspectacular, starter on the Broncos’ interior, Meinerz began soaring to new heights under Sean Payton. A converted center who now makes a living as Denver’s top right guard, he’ll technically skyrocket toward the top of the interior market starting in 2026, when his $72 million extension kicks in. For this season, though, he’s a bargain as one of Bo Nix’s toughest bodyguards. Penei SewellDET • OT • #58Prisco rank: 21 | Cap hit: $9.5MThe Lions rewarded the big man with a huge payday prior to 2024, making the former top-10 pick one of the NFL’s highest-paid blockers, but his 2025 charge ranks outside the top 10 at right tackle. That’s almost unbelievable considering what Sewell brings up front. A massive two-time All-Pro who’s missed just a single game in four seasons, his road-grading has been a catalyst for Detroit’s recent offensive fireworks. Aidan HutchinsonDET • DE • #97Prisco rank: 15 | Cap hit: $11.3MA serious leg injury robbed Hutchinson of all but five games in 2024, but in a pass rush market where elite sack artists command more than $30 million per year, the well-rounded Michigan product projects as supreme value. That’s because he was on a tear prior to his injury (7.5 sacks in five games) and enters 2025 with almost twice as many quarterback hits (69) as games played (39). His motor is relentless. Jalen CarterPHI • DT • #98Prisco rank: 17 | Cap hit: $5.9MWanna know why the reigning Super Bowl champion Eagles were so willing to shed salary following their championship rout of the Kansas City Chiefs? One reason is they anticipate paying mega bucks to this young man. Though sometimes streaky, Carter has been a game-wrecking force in some critical spots, racking up 12 tackles for loss in 2024 as a violent tone-setter for Vic Fangio’s title-winning front. Leonard WilliamsSEA • DE • #99Prisco rank: 64 | Cap hit: $15MAt 31, Williams isn’t necessarily the force he once was, but he quietly approached a career high in sacks with 11 quarterback takedowns under Mike Macdonald in 2024. At a position where even B-level starters tend to command expensive deals, you could do a whole lot worse at his price point. The two-time Pro Bowler also offers versatility, successfully lining up inside and outside on the defensive front. Jared VerseLAR • LB • #8Prisco rank: 54 | Cap hit: $3.4MThe Florida State product’s 2024 sack total wasn’t gaudy (4.5), but his presence was always felt on the Rams’ youthful front, hence his NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year honors. That already makes him a steal on a rookie deal, and odds are, with another offseason in the books, suiting up next to fellow youngsters Braden Fiske, Byron Young and Kobie Turner, Verse will easily increase his own sack total in Year 2. Zack BaunPHI • LB • #53Prisco rank: 40 | Cap hit: $4.4MBaun will be handsomely paid for his 2024 breakout thanks to a $51 million extension signed this offseason, but that deal is team-friendly at the start, allowing Philadelphia to deploy its top linebacker at a below-market price. Yes, he’s got a small sample size of elite production, but the ex-New Orleans Saints reserve was so rangy and physical under Vic Fangio that it’s hard not to bet on his continued success. Bobby WagnerWAS • MLB • #54Prisco rank: 88 | Cap hit: $9MLike a fine wine, Wagner just can’t stop aging gracefully. He’ll be 35 at the start of 2025, which means the Commanders can only count on him for so long. Or can they? The longtime Seattle Seahawks star has missed just three games over the last decade, and while he may not possess the top-end athleticism of today’s linebackers, he remains a physical force close to the line, totaling 1,800-plus tackles for his career. Christian GonzalezNE • CBPrisco rank: 62 | Cap hit: $4.1MEven widely respected cover men like Sauce Gardner and Derek Stingley Jr. don’t cost a ton in 2025, but Gonzalez has the potential to be the biggest steal at the cornerback spot after a second-year breakout, in which he excelled operating against opposing teams’ No. 1 receivers. Marred by injuries as a rookie, the 22-year-old former Oregon standout could become the face of Mike Vrabel’s restocked Patriots defense. Quinyon MitchellPHI • CB • #27Prisco rank: 69 | Cap hit: $3.4MA lot of the focus of the Eagles’ Super Bowl win fell upon familiar names like Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and A.J. Brown. Yet the Birds’ suffocating defense was buoyed in part by a young secondary, which featured Mitchell, the first-round Toledo prospect, as a full-time starter on the perimeter. Unfazed in his first NFL action, “Q” saved his best work for last, logging four pass breakups and two picks in the playoffs. Cooper DeJeanPHI • CB • #33Prisco rank: 85 | Cap hit: $2.1MIf Mitchell paced the Eagles’ outside corners in 2024, then DeJean found instant stardom out of the slot, hovering around the ball with six pass breakups, three fumble recoveries and a Super Bowl pick-six of Patrick Mahomes. It’s possible his role could vary more in 2025 thanks to Philadelphia shuffling the safety position, but the beloved Iowa product already registers as a top Eagles fan favorite for good reason. Kyle HamiltonBAL • SAF • #14Prisco rank: 36 | Cap hit: $5.2MIf you’re looking to find the next Ravens star due for a payday, look no further than Hamilton, who has basically been everything Baltimore dreamed of when the team picked him 14th overall out of Notre Dame in 2022. A do-it-all chess piece who’s taken snaps at almost every level of the defense, his 2024 numbers were down a bit from the year prior, but he remains one of the NFL’s most versatile defensive playmakers. Brian BranchDET • CB • #32Prisco rank: 65 | Cap hit: $2.2MSome depth charts have Branch listed at cornerback, which is fair because he’s taken slot reps for Detroit, but the former Alabama standout is best described as a jack of all trades. Whereas fellow safety Kerby Joseph has made a name for himself plucking passes out of the air, Branch is more of an all-around tone-setter, bringing both attitude and versatility with 15 tackles for loss and 29 pass breakups in two years. |
