| Which of the eight last place teams are most likely to go from worst to first in their division in 2026? Aaron Schatz of ESPN.com has his answer: Since the NFL realigned to eight four-team divisions in 2002, more than two dozen teams have gone from worst in their division standings to ranked first in the following season. Just last season, the Patriots went from last place in the AFC East all the way to the Super Bowl, and the Bears won the NFC North a season after they finished last. Who’s next? We’ve gone through the eight teams that finished in last place in each division after the 2025 season and ranked them by their odds of suddenly winning their divisions in 2026. (One year ago, the Bears and Patriots were ranked second and third on this list, respectively.) These odds are via ESPN’s Football Power Index. FPI’s overall predictive ratings combine win totals from the betting market along with factors such as the difference between a team’s starting and backup quarterback and a special teams rating that incorporates specific kickers. There are clear indicators that help guide us as to which teams are most likely to go from worst to first. But remember that sometimes teams will change and develop in ways we can’t foresee and take an unexpected big step forward. For example, the Texans went from 3-13-1 in 2023 to first place the following season, partly thanks QB C.J. Stroud’s rookie season, which far exceeded expectations. If Fernando Mendoza has a similar rookie season, we might be seeing the Raiders in first place in 2026. For now, we’ll start with a team that went the opposite direction — from first to worst — in its division over the past two seasons. 1. Detroit Lions2025 record: 9-8Odds of winning division: 38.2% (first in division)Odds of making playoffs: 68.4% (sixth in NFL)The Lions have by far the best odds to go from worst to first, for three main reasons: schedule, injuries and the fact that they weren’t really that bad last season. Of course, this is exactly what I wrote about the 49ers a year ago, so there certainly are no guarantees. We’ll start with the quality of the team. The Lions finished last season ranked third in both FPI and DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average). Yes, there are questions about the interior offensive line, but this is a team that has ranked among the league’s top eight offenses for four straight seasons. The defense also has excellent talent, and DVOA ranked the Lions in the top 10 for all three phases of the game in both 2024 and 2025. Don’t forget that Detroit had a winning record last season and was actually one win away from finishing second in the NFC North. And one of these years, the Lions might make it through a season without suffering the most defensive injuries of any team in the league. Detroit ranked dead last in adjusted games lost on defense last season, and only the Cardinals had more injuries overall. The Lions’ schedule ranks 27th in the league by the average projected DVOA of their opponents; the other three teams in the NFC North all have schedules ranked 18th or harder. Getting Arizona on their schedule instead of the other three NFC West teams is huge, but the Lions also play the Giants and Titans instead of the tougher teams their division rivals must face. 2. New Orleans Saints2025 record: 6-11Odds of winning division: 19.3% (third in division)Odds of making playoffs: 23.8% (23rd in NFL)The Saints have reasons to believe they could make a quality jump this season. It’s their second season under coach Kellen Moore and defensive coordinator Brandon Staley. Teams tend to improve once they get used to new coaching systems, and the Saints were already improving during the 2025 season on both sides of the ball. DVOA ranked them 29th on offense and 21st on defense through Week 9. In Weeks 10-18, they were 26th on offense and eighth on defense. Saints fans can also have hope about their talent. Maybe quarterback Tyler Shough takes a big leap forward in his second NFL season, or perhaps receiver Jordyn Tyson has a huge rookie year opposite a healthier Chris Olave. But the biggest reason why the Saints come in second on this list is their division competition. The NFC South has been rough, and it looks like it will be that way again. The Buccaneers are 18th in FPI. The other three teams, including the Saints, rank between 24th and 26th. The NFC South champion has been 9-8 or worse in three of the past four seasons. It could be again in 2026. So why not New Orleans? 3. New York Giants2025 record: 4-13Odds of winning division: 11.6% (third in division)Odds of making playoffs: 22% (25th in NFL)The Giants got to take two highly skilled players in the top 10 of the 2026 draft. They have wideout Malik Nabers, their best target on offense, coming back from a knee injury that cost him most of last season. They’re also getting back running back Cam Skattebo, who was an exciting part of the offense until a midseason ankle injury. And they’ve added a good amount of veteran talent to improve the defense, including linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and linemen Shelby Harris and DJ Reader. The Giants also have a new coaching staff, led by John Harbaugh. New York fans are hoping Harbaugh can translate his strong track record to turn things around quickly. This is all well and good, but of course the biggest reason why the Giants might win their division would be QB Jaxson Dart making huge second-year improvements. It worked for the Bears and Patriots last season, so it could work for the Giants this season. Dart was already a surprising 17th in QBR (57.5) among qualifying QBs in 2025, thanks in part to his value as a runner. You can’t expect him to suddenly become a top-10 quarterback, but it’s possible, especially with Nabers to catch his passes. 4. Tennessee Titans2025 record: 3-14Odds of winning division: 5.6% (fourth in division)Odds of making playoffs: 12.4% (27th in NFL)If you liked playing “maybe our second-year QB takes the leap” with the Saints and Giants, you’ll also enjoy playing it with the Titans! Cam Ward, who was the No. 1 draft pick in 2025, was considered a better prospect than Jaxson Dart at this time last year, but otherwise the Titans are similar to the Giants — just in less exciting ways. As a rookie, Ward ranked last among qualifying starters in QBR (33.2). The Titans added two first-round picks in this year’s draft, but only one of them was in the top 10 (WR Carnell Tate). The Titans added a lot of veterans on defense this offseason, but they don’t particularly stand out. And the Titans also have a new coaching staff, but Robert Saleh doesn’t have the track record of John Harbaugh. The Titans do have their division as a point in their favor, as FPI is more impressed by the Eagles and Cowboys than it is by the Texans and Jaguars. 5. Las Vegas Raiders2025 record: 3-14Odds of winning division: 1.5% (fourth in division)Odds of making playoffs: 6% (28th in NFL)The Raiders are a lot of “maybe but probably not.” First of all, you have to expect that rookie QBs will be bad. Yes, even No. 1 picks. (Again, Cam Ward was last in QBR last season.) The Raiders haven’t even said if they will start Fernando Mendoza. It seems likely that the job will go to Kirk Cousins, at least in Week 1. But maybe? If Stroud could put the Texans in the playoffs in 2023, and Jayden Daniels could put the Commanders into the playoffs in 2024, Mendoza certainly has a chance to be very good and put the Raiders into the playoffs in 2026. Probably not, but maybe. If the Raiders get a great rookie season from him, it’s not ridiculous to think that they could have a top defense to go with it. The Raiders ranked 14th in defensive DVOA in 2025 and 18th the season before. They still have Maxx Crosby and made several free agent additions on that side of the ball. Again, probably not, but maybe. One important note is that unlike most of the teams on this list, the Raiders likely won’t benefit from improved health in 2026. They already finished fifth in fewest adjusted games lost last season. Tennessee (11th) was the only other last-place team with a below-average number of injuries. 6. New York Jets2025 record: 3-14Odds of winning division: 1.2% (third in division)Odds of making playoffs: 3.9% (30th in NFL)The Jets aren’t the worst team in their division according to FPI! That would be the Dolphins. So while we have the Jets’ odds of winning an AFC East title very low, they aren’t the lowest. The Jets are counting on a rebound from QB Geno Smith, who turns 36 in October. They’re also depending on a lot of highly drafted rookies to be useful players in the depth chart right away. The Jets had three first-round picks, and they’ll all play important roles: edge rusher David Bailey, receiver Omar Cooper Jr. and tight end Kenyon Sadiq. Second-round pick D’Angelo Ponds will be a starter, as well, at the nickelback position. Most likely, those rookies will represent a range of performances, from excellent to disappointing. But the Jets need all four of them to be excellent right away if they’re going to make a run at their division foes, the Bills and Patriots. The Jets did one thing well last season, and that was special teams play. New York had one of the top 10 special teams units measured by DVOA going back to 1977. The problem there is that special teams are much less consistent than offense or defense. Even if the Jets have a good special teams unit again, it’s very unlikely it will be as good as last season. 7. Cleveland Browns2025 record: 5-12Odds of winning division: 1.1% (fourth in division)Odds of making playoffs: 5.5% (29th in NFL)The problem with a team built entirely around defense is that defense is less consistent than offense from season to season. Just ask the Browns. In 2025, Cleveland had the worst offense in the league by DVOA but ranked eighth on defense. Two seasons ago, the Browns also had the worst offense in the league but ranked a poor 25th on defense with almost all the same players, including Myles Garrett. Now the Browns will try to put a good defense on the field again — but this time without Garrett. And will Cleveland’s offense be terrible again in 2025? It probably will, especially because there’s no reason to expect a huge improvement at the QB position. The starter might be Deshaun Watson, who is coming back from an Achilles injury and had a dismal 21.0 QBR two seasons ago. Or maybe it will be Dillon Gabriel, who had a slightly more impressive 31.4 QBR last season. Or Shedeur Sanders, who had an 18.9 QBR in 2025. 8. Arizona Cardinals2025 record: 3-14Odds of winning division: 0.1% (fourth in division)Odds of making playoffs: 1.2% (32nd in NFL) The Cardinals led the NFL in adjusted games lost last season; they were completely pummeled by injuries. They also faced the hardest schedule in the league by DVOA. These facts might make them an interesting prospect for 2026 improvement except for two things. First, they have questions up and down the roster, especially at the QB position. Second, they’re still going to have one of the hardest schedules in the league because they are stuck in the NFC West with the Seahawks, Rams and 49ers — three of the five top teams in the league based on FPI. That makes a division title almost absurdly unlikely for the Cardinals. They go into the season ranked 29th in FPI. Even if 34-year-old QB Jacoby Brissett has his best season, and the defense improves enough to make the Cardinals one of the top 10 teams, they still have to hope that the Seahawks, Rams and 49ers all collapse. A Cardinals division title in 2026 might be the most unlikely division title in NFL history. |
| NFC NORTH |
| DETROITRB JAHMYR GIBBS says he’s not really thinking about a big contract extension, he’s just loving life in Michigan. Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com: Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs is heading into the fourth season of his rookie contract, which means he’s eligible to get a new deal, and surely wants to become one of the highest-paid running backs in football. But he says that’s not on his mind. Gibbs is participating in the Lions’ voluntary offseason workouts, and he said he’ll let his agent and Lions General Manager Brad Holmes figure out his contract. “I’m just letting my agent and Brad and all them do do all that right now. I’m just worried about the team and ball,” Gibbs said. Asked again about his contract, Gibbs made clear that it’s not his focus. “I don’t know. I don’t really pay attention to all that stuff,” Gibbs said. “I let my agent and Brad do all that — or whoever does it up there, I don’t know. But I just let him do that and I just be out here.” Gibbs, who was born and raised in Georgia and played his college football at Georgia Tech before transferring to Alabama, said he never envisioned Detroit becoming his home. But after three years, it has. “I love the people here. I love the sports teams here. It’s just been fun overall — I never thought I’d be here in Detroit growing up, but I really like it here,” Gibbs said. And the Lions really like having Gibbs, which means an agreement on a new contract shouldn’t be hard to work out. |
| GREEN BAYWR CHRISTIAN WATSON could make $110 million the next four years. Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com on Green Bay’s contract commitment: First Jayden Reed, now Christian Watson. Within a matter of weeks, the Green Bay Packers have extended their top two receivers on long-term contracts. Watson on Thursday agreed to a four-year, $110.5 million extension that included a $31 million signing bonus, sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter. This came after Reed signed a three-year, $50.25 million extension on April 24. The Packers announced Watson’s extension but did not disclose terms of the deal. “Grateful is an understatement … so blessed,” Watson wrote in a post to his Instagram Story. Watson, 27, previously signed a one-year, $11 million contract last September as a gap deal during his return from a torn ACL late in the 2024 season. The new money average of $27.6 million is almost exactly what the franchise tag is on Cowboys receiver George Pickens ($27.3 million). However, Watson still had $5.75 million on his existing contract. Watson, a second-round pick in 2022, had a strong return from the injury with 35 catches for 611 yards and six touchdowns in the final 10 games of last season. From Weeks 8 to 18, Watson led the NFL with a 17.5-yard average per catch. Of his 35 catches last season, 17 went for 16 or more yards, a percentage that ranked third among all players with at least 30 catches last season. In four seasons with the Packers, Watson has caught 133 passes for 2,264 yards and 20 touchdowns. The extensions for Reed and Watson came after the Packers let receiver Romeo Doubs leave in free agency to the New England Patriots and traded receiver Dontayvion Wicks to the Philadelphia Eagles. “It was definitely tough to see those guys go because they’re great friends of mine, great teammates,” Watson said this week during Packers OTAs. “This thing always keeps on moving. I definitely think they’ll be a lot more opportunities for the guys who are out there this year, myself included. Just got to embrace that and continue to make plays when our numbers are called.” Watson, Reed and 2025 first-round pick Matthew Golden are expected to be the top three receivers this season. “We’ve still got a very deep receiver room,” quarterback Jordan Love said this week. “We’ve got Christian, we’ve got J. Reed, we’ve got M.G., guys who are all going to continue to keep building, keep taking those steps. Guys who have played a lot of ball with Christian and J. Reed, so we’ve still got a great room, and it’s just about getting back to work right now, building the foundation and setting ourselves up for when we get back to training camp.” |
| NFC EAST |
| DALLASA surprising battle on the offensive line for the Cowboys. Kevin Patra of NFL.com: Dallas Cowboys 2024 first-round pick Tyler Guyton will have to battle to keep his starting gig. Coach Brian Schottenheimer said Thursday that Guyton and Nathan Thomas are in a competition for the starting left tackle job. The coach noted that the club needs to see more reliability from Guyton, with health being a concern as well. “Tyler’s biggest thing is the consistency has not been there,” Schottenheimer said, via the team’s official website. “Very talented, maybe one of the most athletic big men I’ve ever been around with his ability to kick slide, punch, move, run. But there’s got to be more consistency, and that’s been the challenge that he’s been working extremely, extremely hard on.” Guyton, the No. 29 overall pick in ’24, was immediately installed as the starting left tackle but struggled through ups and downs in his rookie campaign. His 2025 season was pockmarked by injury — a knee issue in training camp and a high ankle sprain that forced him onto injured reserve to end his campaign early. Schottenheimer said the Cowboys plan “to make (Guyton) earn it” and that the competition is “going to get the best out of Tyler Guyton and Nate Thomas.” Schottenheimer’s comments were clearly meant to challenge the 24-year-old Guyton; otherwise, the coach wouldn’t have needed to make a declaration at all. He’d just let the process play out. After two years of inconsistency, opening the potential for a switch is a warning to the former first-rounder. Thomas, a 2024 seventh-rounder selected 204 picks after Guyton, started four games last season but struggled, leading the Cowboys to flip Pro Bowl left guard Tyler Smith out to tackle for the final four games. Dallas prefers to keep Smith at guard, which has led to competition at LT. However, if things go awry, Schotty could elect to revisit the issue. Instability on Dak Prescott’s blindside is a recipe for disaster. Guyton is simply taking a one-day-at-a-time approach. “Same equation, come to work every day, try to get better, prepare myself for the next day,” Guyton said. “There’s competition everywhere on the team. It’s a football team and everybody wants to play. Friendly competition isn’t bad. It brings the best out of people.” The Cowboys are hoping it brings out the best in their former first-round pick; otherwise, they could face issues in 2026. |
| NFC WEST |
| LOS ANGELES RAMSEDGE MYLES GARRETT has signed a new deal with the Rams. It’s about the same money being paid in a different manner. Mike Florio: Yes, the Rams and defensive end Myles Garrett have a new deal. As mentioned earlier, it’s a five-year contract, covering 2026 through 2030. It replaces the deal Garrett had signed in 2025 with the Browns, adding no new years. Here are the full terms, per a source with knowledge of the contract: 1. Signing bonus: $35.7 million. 2. 2026 base salary: $1.3 million, fully guaranteed. 3. 2027 option bonus: $30.145 million, guaranteed for injury at signing and fully guaranteed in 2027. 4. 2027 base salary: $1.345 million, guaranteed for injury at signing and fully guaranteed in 2027. 5. 2027 per-game roster bonus: $510,000 total, guaranteed for injury at signing and fully guaranteed in 2027 (but must be earned). 6. 2028 option bonus: $19.49 million, guaranteed for injury at signing and fully guaranteed in 2027. 7. 2028 base salary: $1.345 million, guaranteed for injury at signing and fully guaranteed in 2027. 8. 2028 per-game roster bonus: $510,000 total, guaranteed for injury at signing and fully guaranteed in 2027 (but must be earned). 9. 2029 option bonus: $21.49 million. 10. 2029 offseason roster bonus: $8 million. 11. 2029 base salary: $10 million. 12. 2029 per-game roster bonus: $510,000 total. 13. 2030 option bonus: $16.49 million. 14. 2030 offseason roster bonus: $8 million. 15. 2030 base salary: $15 million. 16. 2030 per-game roster bonus: $510,000 total. The five-year deal has an average of $35.8 million at signing. It’s the same total payout from 2026 through 2030 as his prior contract with the Browns. Of the total amount, $37 million is fully guaranteed at signing. Another $62 million is guaranteed for injury at signing. The payments become fully guaranteed in 2027. In comparison to his prior deal, the guarantee drops in 2027 by $10.7 million. The 2028 guarantee increases by $7.2 million. As a practical matter, it’s a three-year deal with team-held options for 2029 and 2030. The $8 million roster bonus in each season will force the Rams to make a quick decision. |
| THIS AND THAT |
| BEST BACKUP QBsGilberto Manzano of SI.com has ranked the backup QBs from 32 to 1. We would expect to see MAC JONES and DAVIS MILLS near the top (okay, we peeked and he has some guys we think will be the starter as “backups”). 32. Cade Klubnik, New York JetsIt’s not a given that Klubnik will open the season as Geno Smith’s backup after coach Aaron Glenn recently said that veteran Bailey Zappe is No. 2 on the depth chart, but he added that there’s an “open competition” for the role. I predict that Klubnik will win the QB2 job this summer, and it bodes well that he’s already received praise from Smith for the way he prepares throughout the week. Most teams would rather not have a rookie fourth-rounder as the backup QB, but the Jets likely wouldn’t mind seeing what they have in Klubnik before next year’s loaded QB draft class. Klubnik played 49 games during his four years at Clemson. 31. Quinn Ewers, Miami DolphinsWith Tua Tagovailoa struggling again amid a losing season in 2025, the Dolphins made sure to give their rookie quarterback an early audition for 2026. It seems Ewers didn’t do much in his three starts to impress the organization because the team went out and signed Malik Willis to be the new starter. However, it didn’t help Ewers’s case that the team added a new GM (Jon-Eric Sullivan) and coach (Jeff Hafley) this offseason. Ewers, a 2025 seventh-round pick, completed 66.3% of his passes for 622 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions in four games played. 30. Joe Milton III, Dallas CowboysMilton flashed upside (241 yards, TD) in his memorable Week 18 performance against the Bills while filling in for Drake Maye as a rookie in 2024. That game ultimately led to the Cowboys taking interest in Milton and sending a Day 3 pick to New England for the Tennessee product. However, Milton’s development with the Cowboys hasn’t been a fruitful one. He struggled with accuracy in his three preseason starts, but Dallas saw enough to make him Dak Prescott’s backup last season—or the team had no choice but to make him QB2 after the trade with New England. Milton wasn’t needed last year with Prescott starting every game. 29. Kyle Allen, Buffalo BillsIt’s a bit surprising that the Bills, who are in win-now mode, don’t have better options behind Josh Allen. Then again, if the perennial MVP candidate goes down due to injury, this team has slim hopes for winning a Super Bowl. Still, the decision to trust Kyle Allen as the backup could hurt the Bills at the worst time. Oftentimes, backups are just needed for a quarter or a game—or in the AFC title game. Allen has played eight seasons, but most of his starting experience came in 2019 when he started 12 games for the Panthers and he hasn’t done much since. However, Josh Allen and the Bills seem to really like the other Allen after bringing him back to Buffalo for a second stint. Allen played for Buffalo in 2023 and has played for six total teams, including Washington, Houston, Pittsburgh and Detroit. 28. Tommy DeVito, New England PatriotsThe football public hasn’t heard much from DeVito since his memorable starting stretch with the Giants in 2023. DeVito went 3–3 as a starter that season (8 TDs, 3 INTs) and impressed the coaching staff with his confident demeanor and ability to run an offense efficiently. But DeVito, who lacks arm strength, didn’t have the same results in his two starts in New York the following season. DeVito didn’t see any action last season and rode the bench all the way to the Super Bowl with the Patriots. He must be doing something right because the team brought him back to be Drake Maye’s backup. Perhaps DeVito is an asset when it comes to preparing for opponents. 27. Mason Rudolph, Pittsburgh SteelersRudolph is back for his eighth season with the Steelers. (He spent 2024 with Tennessee before returning to Pittsburgh last year.) But it’s not a certainty that Rudolph will be Aaron Rodgers’s backup come Week 1 against the Falcons. The Steelers also have second-year quarterback Will Howard and rookie third-rounder Drew Allar. While I believe it’s time for the Steelers to see what they have in their younger quarterbacks, that likely won’t be the case with Rodgers back for his age-43 season. Pittsburgh will likely hand the QB2 job to Rudolph instead of making this a true competition. This team continues to favor the present rather than the future, even with new coach Mike McCarthy. Rudolph has 19 career starts with a 9-9-1 record. 26. Jake Browning, Tampa Bay BuccaneersTwo years ago, Browning was ranked No. 1 on these QB2 rankings. However, his game fell off a cliff last year and was nowhere near as good as he was before when he filled in for Joe Burrow during a lengthy stretch. In 2023, Browning went 4–3, completing 70.4% of his passes. He didn’t appear as confident in his three starts last year, losing every game before he was benched for Joe Flacco. The Buccaneers are rolling the dice here because it seemed Browning’s arm strength drastically declined last season. 25. Nick Mullens, Jacksonville JaguarsMullens isn’t afraid to push the ball downfield, but his aggressive play style also occasionally comes with turnovers. For example, he had a game in 2023 with the Vikings where he threw for 411 yards and four interceptions—Minnesota lost in overtime to Cincinnati. But there are times when Mullens plays clean football, including his starting debut in 2018 when he threw three touchdowns and no interceptions for the 49ers in a Thursday Night Football game against the Raiders. Mullens, who’s in his second season with the Jaguars, is a quality spot starter, but it’s not ideal to ask him to play in consecutive games. 24. Kenny Pickett, Carolina PanthersPickett has played for the Eagles, Browns, Raiders and now the Panthers since the Steelers gave up on the 2022 first-round pick two years ago. Outside of his starting experience (27 career starts), Pickett doesn’t offer much upside as a QB2. He’s not a streaky quarterback who can get hot in a hurry and push the ball downfield, which is the case for most signal-callers on this list. For his career, Pickett has completed 62.4% of his passes and thrown 16 touchdowns and 16 interceptions in 36 games played. Pickett started 12 games in each of his first two seasons with the Steelers, never cracking more than 2,500 passing yards. 23. Ty Simpson, Los Angeles RamsSimpson is ranked much lower than fellow 2026 first-rounder Fernando Mendoza, who will appear later on this list, partly because it’s going to take him longer to be a starting-caliber quarterback in the NFL due to only 15 collegiate starts. However, it helps that Simpson, this year’s No. 13 pick, will be developed by offensive mastermind Sean McVay and has Puka Nacua and Davante Adams as targets. Also, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Simpson appears on the initial 53-man roster as QB3 behind Stetson Bennett and Matthew Stafford. But the team would likely lean on Simpson’s upside over Bennett, the 2023 fourth-round pick, if Stafford were to miss time in the regular season. 22. Mitchell Trubisky, Tennessee TitansTrubisky has found a new home after spending the past two years in Buffalo. He didn’t see much action as Josh Allen’s backup, but what Trubisky provides away from the field might be more valuable for the Titans and Cam Ward, the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft. Trubisky, the 2017 No. 2 pick of the Bears, knows what it’s like for a prominent young quarterback to have the pressure of delivering fast results. His past experiences can assist Ward on and off the field. Trubisky already has a connection with offensive coordinator Brian Daboll from when the two worked together in Buffalo in 2021. Trubisky has 57 career starts and also spent two seasons in Pittsburgh, which were sandwiched between the two Buffalo stints. 21. Teddy Bridgewater, Detroit LionsIt seems like it was ages ago that Bridgewater was viewed as the franchise quarterback in Minnesota. His career trajectory drastically changed after suffering a career-threatening leg injury before the 2016 season. Bridgewater revived his career as a quality backup in New Orleans, gaining the trust of coach Sean Payton while making spot starts in ’18 and ’19. Bridgewater’s days of being viewed as a high-end No. 2 quarterback are gone, but he still has the trust of coaches, he’s beloved in the locker room and his high football IQ makes him an asset during film sessions. Bridgewater, who played with the Lions in 2023 and ’24, briefly retired to coach high school football before signing with the Buccaneers last season. 20. Tyler Huntley, Baltimore RavensHuntley, who notoriously made a Pro Bowl roster in 2022, is back in Baltimore for a seventh season and a third stint with the team. The Ravens keep bringing Huntley back because he’s a mobile quarterback with a similar skill set as Lamar Jackson, a plus for the coaching staff knowing that the playbook wouldn’t shrink much if Jackson were to miss games. In six seasons, Huntley has made 16 career starts, including five with the Dolphins in 2024. He helped the Ravens win two games last season to keep the team’s playoff hopes alive while Jackson was sidelined due to injury. 19. Andy Dalton, Philadelphia EaglesDalton, who heads into his age-39 season, is Jalen Hurts’s backup after spending the past three years with Bryce Young and the Panthers. He briefly took the job from Young in 2024, but he was only the starter for five games before sustaining an injury in a car crash, which opened the door for Young to return to the field. Now in his 16th year with 169 career starts, Dalton is no longer the kind of backup who can steal a starting opportunity. He’s the well-seasoned, savvy veteran who’s only expected to play in case of emergency. 18. Marcus Mariota, Washington CommandersSimilar to the setup in Baltimore with Jackson and Huntley, the Commanders also prefer the benefits that come from having a starter and a backup with similar skill sets. While Mariota isn’t as fast as he once was, he still has enough mobility to run a playbook tailor-made for Jayden Daniels. But Mariota was asked to play too much last season and delivered erratic performances in his eight starts while filling in for the injured Daniels. In 11 seasons, the 2015 No. 2 pick has made 82 career starts with a 36–46 record. 17. Drew Lock, Seattle SeahawksTeams tend to favor backups they’re familiar with, as evidenced from the number of QBs listed here on their second or third stint with their respective teams. GM John Schneider must have really liked what he saw from Lock in 2022 and ’23 when he played under coach Pete Carroll and behind Geno Smith, because Schneider brought Lock back last year to work with coach Mike Macdonald and Sam Darnold. Lock struggled in five starts with the Giants during his one year away from Seattle. The 2019 second-round selection of the Broncos has made 28 career starts. He delivered a memorable performance in 2023, rallying the Seahawks to defeat the Eagles on Monday Night Football. 16. Tyrod Taylor, Green Bay PackersTaylor is the perfect median for backup quarterbacks. He’s not a gunslinger, but his coaches love how he prioritizes playing under structure and protecting the football. There’s not much coaches hate more than a chaotic backup not sticking to the plays called. The mild-mannered Taylor never threw more than six interceptions in the three seasons he started for the Bills between 2015 and ’17. Overall, Taylor has made 62 career starts with 73 touchdowns and 34 interceptions. While he’s a cautious quarterback, he usually gives his team a chance to win because he rarely goes away from the guardrails. Taylor started his career with the Ravens and has spent time with the Bills, Browns, Chargers, Texans, Giants and Jets. 15. Trey Lance, Los Angeles ChargersFor a second, it seemed Lance was going to make the most of his second opportunity in the league after the 49ers traded the No. 3 pick in the 2021 draft to the Cowboys. But Lance struggled to take the QB2 job from Cooper Rush in his two seasons in Dallas and wasn’t brought back for the ’25 season. However, Lance found stability with the Chargers and gained the trust of coach Jim Harbaugh after an impressive preseason last summer in Los Angeles. In four seasons, Lance has six career starts with five touchdowns and five interceptions. 14. Gardner Minshew II, Arizona CardinalsMinshew, who has 47 career starts, might be asked to play a lot in Arizona this season if the team doesn’t find a contract resolution with Jacoby Brissett. There’s also rookie third-round pick Carson Beck, but Minshew’s years of experience would likely give him the inside track toward winning the starting job if Brissett isn’t around this summer. Minshew did struggle in his nine starts with the Raiders in 2024, but the year before, he kept the Colts’ playoff hopes alive until the season finale. He has good days and bad, like most backups, but the highs can be impressive. 13. J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota VikingsPerhaps McCarthy should be ranked lower because of how poorly he played last year in his first season as a full-time starter. Not only did McCarthy have a dismal 57.6% completion percentage, durability was also a concern with only 10 games played due to injuries. Perhaps McCarthy has learned from his 2025 mistakes and there’s also the possibility of him being highly motivated to beat out Kyler Murray for the starting job. He likely won’t win it, but maybe he’ll get the opportunity to regain the job, especially with Murray missing 21 regular-season games since ’21. 12. Shedeur Sanders, Cleveland BrownsSanders doesn’t get enough credit for his stellar Week 14 performance last year because it came against the struggling Titans. But the 2025 fifth-round pick displayed confidence and command in clutch moments, recording 364 yards, three touchdowns, one interception and one rushing score in the 31–29 shootout loss. (That was the game coach Kevin Stefanski went with an absurd wildcat play on a crucial two-point conversion.) That game alone showed how Sanders can get hot in a hurry. The jury is still out on him being a franchise quarterback, but the ability to push the ball downfield could at least make him a high-end backup in his career. 11. Davis Mills, Houston TexansMills is a quality game manager who stepped up last year to win three games while C.J. Stroud was sidelined with a concussion. Many forget that Mills was the starter in Houston before Stroud arrived as the No. 2 pick in the 2023 draft. It says plenty that the Texans have made it a priority to keep him around, even after demoting him with Stroud’s arrival. It also helps that the Texans just need a solid game manager to play with this lights-out defense. Mills knows the system, and that’s a big plus for coach DeMeco Ryans. In five seasons, Mills has 29 career starts with 40 touchdowns and 26 interceptions. 10. Anthony Richardson Sr., Indianapolis ColtsYes, Richardson has struggled throughout his career and has been unable to stay available. (He had a golden opportunity last year when Daniel Jones ruptured his achilles, but he wasn’t around due to a freak accident with an elastic exercise band.) Still, I can’t get over how dominant Richardson was in the first month of his rookie season in 2023. There were shades of Cam Newton and Josh Allen with his arm strength and massive 6’4″, 244-pound frame. In a spot start or in relief, Richardson’s game could give teams plenty of fits—that’s if he’s available. There’s also a possibility that the Colts trade or cut Richardson, who has 15 career starts, before the end of training camp. 9. Jarrett Stidham, Denver BroncosStidham is ranked this high mostly because Sean Payton still decided to bring him back as Bo Nix’s backup despite his shaky performance in the AFC title game against the Patriots (17-of-31, 133 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT). Granted, it’s tough to judge any quarterback in a snow storm, but Payton keeping Stidham as his QB2 speaks volumes, given what transpired last postseason with Nix’s ankle injury. Clearly, Stidham is doing something right in practice to gain that kind of trust from Payton. However, it’s a bit surprising that Stidham has only four career starts in six seasons with the Patriots, Raiders and Broncos. 8. Justin Fields, Kansas City ChiefsFields has been an erratic passer since entering the league as a 2021 first-round pick of the Bears, but he’s also never been coached by the innovative Andy Reid. If it turns out that the Chiefs need Fields early in the season to give Patrick Mahomes more time to make a full recovery from his knee injury—though it’s not looking that way with Mahomes participating in OTAs—that could be the ideal scenario for Fields to show what he can do with a strong supporting cast. He didn’t have that in Chicago to start his career or with the Jets last year, and let’s not forget that coach Mike Tomlin was pretty set on giving Russell Wilson the starting job in Pittsburgh when he returned to health. Maybe those are more excuses for Fields, but he could extend his career as a backup in this ideal situation. 7. Tyson Bagent, Chicago BearsBagent might have gotten some starting consideration from other teams because his name came up in trade rumors this offseason. But coach Ben Johnson was reluctant to part ways with the 2023 undrafted free agent, which is indicative of how he views him as a quarterback. Bagent has a strong arm and enough mobility to extend plays. He hasn’t been needed as much since Caleb Williams arrived in 2024, but he had an impressive stretch as a rookie when Justin Fields was sidelined for four games. Bagent went 2–2, completing 65.7% of his passes for 859 yards, three touchdowns and six interceptions. 6. Spencer Rattler, New Orleans SaintsRattler has lost 12 out of his 13 career starts, dropping his first 10 games, but he showed impressive flashes in some of those games, which is why coach Kellen Moore decided to hand him the starting job to open his Saints tenure last season. Perhaps that was partly because Tyler Shough needed more time to learn from the sidelines, but that was a legitimate quarterback battle that Rattler won last summer. Shough wasn’t a first-round pick that was being rushed to the field and needed to prove himself. However, the wins weren’t coming for Rattler and that opened the door for Shough, who seized the opportunity to conclude his rookie year. 5. Fernando Mendoza, Las Vegas RaidersI wouldn’t be surprised if the Raiders hand Mendoza the keys to open Week 1 against the Dolphins. Kirk Cousins might not have much left heading into his age-38 season and coming off two tumultuous years in Atlanta. But the Raiders’ decision-makers keep expressing the importance of being patient with the 2026 No. 1 pick, and did just hand Cousins $20 million guaranteed for the year. Mendoza, and his dangerous back-shoulder throws, will likely see the field sooner rather than later, but probably not in Week 1. Bold prediction: Mendoza will make his debut some time in October. 4. Jameis Winston, New York GiantsWinston is an aggressive gunslinger with the ball in his hands and a motivational speaker when he’s not slinging it. Not only do his pregame speeches go viral on social media, he showed last year against the Lions that he still has plenty to offer as a quarterback, lighting up Detroit’s secondary for 366 yards, two touchdowns and one interception in the Week 12 overtime loss. Winston’s reckless ways got him in trouble as a starter for the Buccaneers, but his play style is better suited as a backup. In 2019, Winston led the league in passing yards (5,109) and interceptions (30). Since that memorable season, Winston has been a backup for the Saints, Browns and Giants. 3. Tua Tagovailoa, Atlanta FalconsThis could be Tagovailoa’s first time starting a season as a backup since his early years with the Dolphins, but he might get a chance to start for the Falcons if Michael Penix Jr. doesn’t make a speedy comeback from his torn ACL. Also, Penix needs to show he’s made improvements from his rocky Year 2. If Tagovailoa gets an opportunity in Atlanta, he might be able to replicate what he did in his first two years working with coach Mike McDaniel in Miami. (Tagovailoa threw for a league-high 4,624 yards in 2023). The Falcons have the weapons with Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts and Drake London. If Tagovailoa can cut back on his turnovers—he’s had 36 interceptions in 42 games over the past three years —he can make the most of his new situation. 2. Mac Jones, San Francisco 49ersJones was the latest failed first-round pick who made the most of a new opportunity last year. After struggling with the Patriots and spending one year as a backup with the Jaguars, Jones landed in an ideal situation with coach Kyle Shanahan and all of his weapons in San Francisco. Jones kept the 49ers’ playoff hopes alive during a massive wave of injuries during the first half of the season. He produced a memorable upset road win against the Rams in Week 5, recording 342 yards and two touchdowns. Jones went 5–3 while filling in for the injured Brock Purdy. If the 2021 first-round pick hadn’t signed a two-year, $8.4 million deal with the 49ers, he might have gotten some interest as a starter this offseason. 1. Joe Flacco, Cincinnati BengalsFlacco still has plenty to offer with how well he played for the Bengals last season. Initially, it seemed Father Time was on the verge of getting Flacco in 2025, but it was obvious that he was being held back by the Browns’ dreadful offense. After the rare all–AFC North trade, Flacco torched opposing secondaries with the star duo of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. It’s wild looking back at how productive the 41-year-old QB was last season. He threw for 470 yards against the Bears and delivered a 342-yard performance against the Steelers. Flacco is the ultimate backup because he offers hope, even amid the worst situations, including last year when the Bengals traded for him after Burrow’s injury. |
| BROADCAST NEWSRussell Wilson has joined CBS Sports, his playing career over. Jayna Bardahl and Dan Shanoff of The Athletic: Russell Wilson, the 10-time Pro Bowler and Super Bowl-winning quarterback with the Seattle Seahawks, announced that he is joining CBS Sports and “The NFL Today” in a retirement video posted to social media on Wednesday. Wilson, 37, completed his 14th NFL season last year with the New York Giants. He started the first three games, but largely struggled and was benched for rookie Jaxson Dart in Week 4. The Athletic reported last month that Wilson was in discussions to move into television, and “The NFL Today,” CBS’s Sunday pregame show, was considered the favorite. Now, those talks are coming to fruition. Wilson will join host James Brown and analysts Nate Burleson and Bill Cowher on “The NFL Today.” The network had been looking for a replacement for the spot vacated by Matt Ryan, who left to become the Atlanta Falcons’ president of football. Former NFL offensive lineman Kyle Long will also be joining the show. He appeared on the show last season. Long is the son of Howie Long, a fixture of Fox’s NFL Sunday pre-game show. Wilson has worked with CBS on a few occasions over the years, including during a Giants bye week last season. The move marks the end of what is likely a Hall of Fame career for Wilson. A third-round draft pick in 2012, the undersized Wilson led the Seattle Seahawks to two Super Bowls, winning one in a blowout of the Denver Broncos following the 2013 season. The next season, the Seahawks lost to the New England Patriots after Wilson threw an interception late at the goal line. After 10 successful seasons in Seattle, the Seahawks traded Wilson to the Broncos in 2022 in a deal that sent back two first-round, two second-round draft choices, one fifth-round pick and three players. But Wilson struggled to recreate the magic he found in Seattle. He played two seasons in Denver, followed by one-season stints with the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Giants. Wilson ranks fifth in career passer rating among players who have at least 1,500 attempts. What to expect from Wilson the broadcasterAs a bona fide superstar quarterback, Wilson was always going to have great TV opportunities ahead of him once his playing days were over. His on-field career might not have ended as he would have wanted, but his TV career could get off to an impressively solid start. The recent “former star player” seat on a broadcast studio show is a plum gig; it affirms you are a star and puts you in front of millions of fans every Sunday without a ton of pressure to be overly critical. Clearly, ex-QB is a classic sports-TV archetype — see Ryan on “The NFL Today” most recently, but the tradition extends decades to Terry Bradshaw on Fox, among others. Wilson is one of the most well-known quarterbacks of the 21st century, and he brings charisma, the authority that comes with on-field success and a comfort level with the cameras to his new gig on CBS. He might not follow Ryan into an NFL front office — if anything, the most interesting development would be if Wilson ever unretires and tries to get back on the field — but he definitively adds star power to the analyst lineup of Burleson and Cowher ahead of a jam-packed Sunday NFL schedule for CBS this fall. — Dan Shanoff, sports business managing editor Hall of Famer? Ten Pro Bowls and a Super Bowl win are hard to dispute. Still, his career kind of petered out. But so did Warren Sapp’s. |
| BUY THEIR STOCK NOWAn interesting list from NFL.com’s contributors of players who are on the rise: It’s not uncommon for players to generate excitement about their potential during the NFL offseason — specifically in these warmer months, when teams get together for OTAs and mandatory minicamps. Think, for example, of the praise that Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson heaped on second-year receiver Luther Burden III for the work he’s put in this offseason: “I’m buying Luther Burden stock right now, just how he’s approached his offseason,” Johnson said. “It’s been electric. He showed up yesterday, had numerous explosive plays. I loved how in Phase 2 he was finishing every single rep that he took, and that really translated over to yesterday as well. So, he’s in a really good spot. He’s still developing and growing his route tree. … He’s been extremely coachable, so I’m really happy with him.” This won’t be the last time a player is lauded before NFL teams take the field in September. So, inspired by Johnson’s turn of phrase, we ask the question: Which NFL player’s stock are you loading up on in 2026? Bobby Kownack’s Pick PICK: Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles ChargersMike McDaniel is the perfect offensive coordinator to unlock Herbert’s full potential. The same way McDaniel helped Tua Tagovailoa overcome his early-career struggles to become a Pro Bowler in Miami, he could easily propel Herbert, already all-star caliber, into elite territory. It also doesn’t hurt that the Chargers signed a proven center (Tyler Biadasz), spent a second-round pick on offensive lineman (Jake Slaughter) and are getting bookends Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater back from injury. Christian Gonzalez’s Pick PICK: Emeka Egbuka, WR, Tampa Bay BuccaneersWith future Pro Football Hall of Famer wide receiver Mike Evans leaving Tampa Bay for San Francisco, the Buccaneers’ second-year wideout is in line for a much bigger role in 2026. In the early part of the 2025 season, while Evans and Chris Godwin were sidelined by injuries, Egbuka emerged as Baker Mayfield’s top target. Even though Egbuka dealt with multiple injuries of his own throughout his rookie season, he still managed to lead the Bucs in targets (127), receptions (63), receiving yards (938) and receiving touchdowns (six). Don’t be surprised if Egbuka surpasses those numbers in Year 2. Michael Baca’s Pick PICK: Caleb Downs, S, Dallas CowboysIt’s been a long time since the Cowboys have had a truly impactful safety, and it appears they’ve finally landed one in Downs. It’s early, but the first-round pick is already drawing rave reviews from players and coaches alike, with new defensive coordinator Christian Parker lauding the rookie’s “premium instincts” last month. In this league, contenders and champions seem to always feature a play-making safety, and Dallas is long overdue for a player with Downs’ skill set; you’d have to go back to the early days of Roy Williams to find the last time a bona fide game-changer lurked in the back end there. Downs will have an opportunity to be that guy and, perhaps, become the missing X-factor for a club that hasn’t had a hard time scoring points on the other side of the ball. Brooke Cersosimo’s Pick PICK: DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia EaglesThe trade of A.J. Brown alone clears a path for Smith to reach new heights in 2026. As perhaps the league’s best WR2, Smith has posted three 1,000-yard campaigns in his career. He now transitions into life as the team’s No. 1 receiver and Jalen Hurts’ top target, while the Eagles’ entire offense also shifts to a new scheme under first-year OC Sean Mannion, who is expected to rejuvenate Philly’s stale pass game of yesteryear. The stars are aligning for Smith to put up career numbers and earn his first Pro Bowl nod. Eric Edholm’s Pick PICK: Tyler Shough, QB, New Orleans SaintsI admit to being a bit ambivalent about Shough’s potential coming out of college, but he showed me a lot last season. Shough took too many sacks and had some tough fourth-quarter picks, but more often than not, he got better as games wore on. The Saints made some interesting additions this offseason, including running back Travis Etienne, rookie WR Jordyn Tyson and help on the offensive line, and Shough should have more comfort in his second season in Kellen Moore’s system. Grant Gordon’s Pick PICK: Kyle Monangai, RB, Chicago BearsA diamond found in the rough of the 2025 NFL Draft’s seventh round, Monangai had a surprisingly stellar opening act, rushing for 783 yards (fifth among rookie RBs) and five touchdowns. Monangai and D’Andre Swift could well be one of the most underrated running back tandems in the league. Or, perhaps, the younger Monangai could take more of a leading role. Ben Johnson, as the Lions offensive coordinator, coached Swift for a season in Detroit before the back was traded to the Eagles. In Johnson’s second year as the Lions OC, rookie Jahmyr Gibbs (945 yards) and veteran David Montgomery (1,015) emerged as a dynamic duo. There’s a blueprint for running success in Chicago. Though Johnson is already on the record urging the purchase of stock in receiver Luther Burden III, another 2025 draft pick could be poised for a breakout. |
