The Daily Briefing Friday, March 11, 2022

CHICAGO

The Bears new regime is getting rid of EDGE KHALIL MACK.  Adam Schefter of ESPN.com:

The Chicago Bears are finalizing a trade that will send six-time Pro-Bowl defensive end Khalil Mack to the Los Angeles Chargers, sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter on Thursday.

The Chargers are expected to send second- and sixth-round picks in 2023 to the Bears in return for the 31-year-old Mack, a source said.

The deal marks the first major move for new Bears general manager Ryan Poles , who was hired in January.

Mack arrived in Chicago via a blockbuster trade with the Raiders in 2018. That first season, he finished with 12.5 sacks and in second place in the AP Defensive Player of the Year vote. It was the only double-digit sack season he had in Chicago; he had to six in 2021, but they came in seven games.

The Chargers were in need of some help along the defensive line. They finished 30th in rushing defense in 2021, allowing 138.9 yards per game, and allowed the highest conversion rate on third down in the NFL (69%).

Now, Mack will join four-time Pro Bowler Joey Bosa in what will be a fierce combination in Los Angeles. Over the last five seasons, Mack and Bosa both rank top four in total defensive pressures. And that will come at the perfect time, with Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson and Derek Carr all opposing QBs in a loaded AFC West.

DETROIT

LB TREY FLOWERS will be released.  Eric Woodyard of ESPN.com:

The Lions have informed outside linebacker Trey Flowers that he will be released next week when the league year starts Wednesday, a source told ESPN.

The Detroit Free Press was the first to report the news.

In a tweet Thursday, Flowers wrote: “Truly grateful for the love and the lessons!!”

In 2019, the Lions made the two-time Super Bowl champion one of the richest defensive players in football with a $90 million deal over five years with $56 million guaranteed, but Flowers couldn’t stay healthy over the past two seasons.

He was placed on the injured reserve list in the 2020 and 2021 seasons and had just 3.5 total sacks over that two-year span. He had seven sacks in his first season with the Lions when he played in 15 games.

That original deal was signed under former Lions coach Matt Patricia, who was familiar with Flowers from their time with the New England Patriots. The new regime, spearheaded by general manager Brad Holmes and coach Dan Campbell is moving in a different direction.

Detroit’s decision to release Flowers also clears at least $10 million in salary-cap space ahead of the free-agency period. Flowers had a cap hit of $23.2 million in 2022.

DALLAS

T La’EL COLLINS is on the market.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Cowboys are looking to trade offensive lineman La’el Collins.

Dallas is having active trade conversations about Collins and is receiving interest, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network.

The 28-year-old Collins, who has played his entire career with the Cowboys, is set to count $15.25 million against the Cowboys’ salary cap this season.

Last year Collins played in 12 games, starting 10, but the Cowboys didn’t miss him much when he was out of the lineup, and it’s unsurprising that they’re not sure he’s worth the cap space they’re devoting to him.

NEW YORK GIANTS

The Giants are punting on P RILEY DIXON.  Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Giants are releasing punter Riley Dixon, Jordan Raanan of ESPN reports.

The move will save the team $2.8 million in cap space.

Dixon set a career low in net in 2020 with a 39.4-yard average on 65 punts and set a career low in average in 2021 with a 44.4-yard average on 74 punts.

He played four seasons with the Giants after two with the Broncos.

In six NFL seasons, Dixon has a 45.3-yard average with a 41.1-yard net.

:

WASHINGTON

This:

@AndrewBrandt

Not sure there’s another player in NFL history with more collective high draft picks traded for him than Carson Wentz. 

Multiple firsts, seconds, thirds, more.

@PyratHouseAJ

1st Rd pick 16′ (Browns)

3rd Rd pick 16′ (Browns)

4th Rd pick 16′  (Browns)

1st Rd pick 17′  (Browns)

2nd Rd pick 18′  (Browns)

3rd Rd pick 21′ (Eagles)

1st Rd pick 22′ (Eagles)

3rd Rd pick 22′ (Colts)

2nd Rd pick 23′ (Colts)

3 – 1st

2 – 2nd

3 – 3rd

1 – 4th

Made over 100 million

– – –

S LANDON COLLINS is going to be sent on his way.  John Keim of ESPN.com:

The Washington Commanders are expected to released veteran safety Landon Collins, creating more salary-cap space but costing them a valuable defender, a source told ESPN on Thursday.

Collins, who had three years left on his contract, was scheduled to count $16.2 million against the salary cap this season. His release will save Washington $6.6 million against the cap, but he will still count $9.6 million in dead money. According to a source, Washington had tried to work out a deal to lower his cap number.

The news of Collins’ expected release was first reported by NFL Network.

Washington altered Collins’ role early last season, using him in a hybrid safety/linebacker role. That change coincided with improved play by the Commanders’ defense.

In the first six games, most of which featured Collins as the starting strong safety, Washington’s defense — which had a number of other problems — ranked 32nd in scoring and 31st in total yards. In the next six, after Collins had taken over the hybrid role and served as a third safety, Washington’s defense ranked ninth in points and fourth in yards.

Commanders coach Ron Rivera said Collins was a dynamic player in that role. But Collins made it clear that, while he accepted that role, he preferred to be a full-time safety.

Injuries disrupted his past two seasons with Washington. He ruptured an Achilles in Week 7 of 2020 and he missed four games with injuries last season. He was placed on injured reserve for the final three games because of a foot injury.

Washington signed Collins to a six-year contract worth $84 million in the 2019 offseason.

Collins spent his first four seasons with the New York Giants, who selected him in the second round of the 2015 NFL draft. In New York, Collins made three Pro Bowls and was a first-team All Pro in 2016. He did not make a Pro Bowl with Washington.

SAN FRANCISCO

The current unsettled status of the 49ers QB situation is not deterring a significant number of members of the gambling public.

Even though NFC teams have won two straight Super Bowls, the broader balance of power has swung to the AFC. That makes it easier to get to the Super Bowl from the conference that currently provides a relatively easier path.

Via Greg Brainos of Yahoo.com, the 49ers have drawn significant early wagers through BetMGM to make it to the next Super Bowl. Of all money bet on the potential NFC champions, 29.5 percent has been placed on San Francisco. It has lowered the odds from +700 to +600.

The Cowboys, at +600, have drawn only 8.4 percent of the handle. The Packers have received a mere 6.4 percent of the action to date, which is no surprise given the odds (+450) and the very-recently-resolved status of quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

Quarterback Trey Lance also has become a popular bet to win the MVP award, with 10 percent of the handle and odds that have dropped from 80-1 to 66-1. That’s a lot of faith in an unproven commodity, especially with the looming possibility that Tom Brady isn’t retired — and that he’s determined to play for his boyhood favorite team.

If Brady can find a way home, the 49ers immediately will become the favorite to make it to the Super Bowl, and probably the favorite to win it.

Either way, the 49ers enter the bulk of the offseason action as a popular pick to qualify for a February trip to Arizona, their home away from home during the pandemic. The looming moves could end with the 49ers having the best odds, too.

SEATTLE

Three writers in The Athletic, including veteran scribe Mike Sando, tell us why QB RUSSELL WILSON is no longer a Seahawk:

Russell Wilson wasn’t happy. That much was clear.

There was tension when Wilson’s agent, Mark Rodgers, got on the phone with Seahawks general manager John Schneider one year ago to broach potential trade destinations for his client. Rodgers had helped craft the narrative around Wilson’s displeasure with the Seahawks. During this call with Schneider, he relayed the teams to which Wilson would accept a trade – if a trade was what Seattle wanted.

The phrasing marked a cagey bit of semantics enabling Wilson and Rodgers to maintain that they had never asked out of Seattle, while still getting their point across. But the Seahawks had grown so weary of the drama and subterfuge surrounding Wilson that Schneider brushed off Rodgers in profane terms, according to a source. Then, in a move signaling just how rocky the relationship between team and player had become, Rodgers promptly went public, revealing to ESPN’s Adam Schefter the four teams Wilson would approve being traded to.

This week, Schneider and the Seahawks rocked the NFL with a massive trade, sending Wilson and a fourth-round pick to the Broncos for two first-round picks, two seconds, one fifth and three players. Wilson signed off on the trade by waiving his no-trade clause. The deal was stunning, both in its scope and finality, but it didn’t come out of nowhere.

For years, Rodgers reached out privately to reporters covering the team with harsh criticism for Seahawks management, especially coach Pete Carroll. In recent years, Wilson himself made it clear in interviews that he wasn’t happy with his offensive line and his lack of input in roster decisions. He also pressed Carroll to shift toward a more pass-oriented offense.

Sources said the Seahawks had become frustrated with the stream of leaks that consistently popped up hinting at Wilson’s displeasure or questioning his future in Seattle, even as Wilson’s production began to decline. Some teammates said they sensed this year that Wilson had checked out.

Several sources described the end of the relationship between Wilson and the Seahawks as a divorce in which both sides contributed to the dissolution. Wilson felt the team’s personnel misses and devotion to Carroll’s old-school offensive philosophy were holding him back and damaging his legacy. Carroll wasn’t going to abandon the formula Wilson and the Seahawks had used to claim the only Super Bowl championship in franchise history.

It was only a matter of time before this marriage ended.

Months before Wilson’s rookie season in 2012, he went to Carroll’s office. He had yet to take a snap or even be named the starter, but he produced a sheet of paper on which he had typed his objectives:

Always believe in myself.

Win multiple Super Bowls.

Lead the league in passing.

Carroll was fired up, recognizing a kindred spirit, but there was a subtle undertone: Wilson had clear ideas of how his career should go.

Early on, some players were slow to buy into Wilson, who was already handing out his own scouting reports to teammates and posting grandiose goals in his locker. Teammates talked on the plane following Wilson’s first career start, a loss, about how the Seahawks should have started veteran Matt Flynn. Wilson heard it, too, according to former fullback Michael Robinson.

Carroll avoided criticizing Wilson in front of the media and players, which bothered some of Wilson’s teammates. Assistant coaches would critique Wilson in coaches’ meetings, and Carroll would stop them: “No, no, no. We’ve got to change that for him. We’ve got to make sure that’s right for him.”

“Russell could do no wrong,” one former team executive said.

“Pete was his biggest fan,” former running backs coach Sherm Smith said.

Carroll loved Wilson’s ambition. Like Carroll, Wilson always wanted more — more responsibility, more freedom. After the Seahawks lost in the playoffs following Wilson’s rookie season, the quarterback found Carroll on the team bus to express his optimism for the future.

Carroll cut him off.

“Man, that’s just what I was thinking,” the coach said. “Let’s not just win one Super Bowl. Let’s win multiple.”

Wilson and Carroll won their first Super Bowl together the next season, then made it back the following year. They made the playoffs in their first five seasons and watched film together in Carroll’s office after Thursday practices.

“These two guys were on the same wavelength in most everything they did,” former strength coach Chris Carlisle said. “They’re totally the same.”

At the end of the 2016 season, with Wilson established as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and Carroll as one of the best coaches, Sherm Smith spoke with Carroll, then 65, about whether the head coach had thought about retirement.

“If it wasn’t for No. 3, that’s something I might have considered,” Carroll said, according to Smith. “But, man, No. 3 happened to me.”

Things started to change in 2017.

Wilson threw a league-high 34 touchdown passes, led the team in rushing and accounted for all but three of the Seahawks’ offensive TDs. But for the first time in Wilson’s career, Seattle missed the playoffs.

Running back Marshawn Lynch, the heart and soul of the Seattle teams early in Wilson’s career, was gone. Veteran defensive players Cliff Avril, Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman suffered injuries that ended their Seahawks careers. Multiple sources said Wilson saw the moment as an opportunity for the team to make him its new focal point.

Carroll instead replaced offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell with Brian Schottenheimer as part of a move to re-establish the Seahawks’ run-first identity. The result: a 2018 offense as statistically run-heavy as any in the NFL since the Tim Tebow-led Denver Broncos of the early 2010s.

That style of play became a flashpoint during Seattle’s wild-card loss against Dallas that season. Criticism of Seattle’s run-heavy game plan was so strong that Carroll felt compelled to defend Schottenheimer during his end-of-season news conference.

“Hold it against me,” Carroll said. “I’m the guy that’s in charge of this thing.”

For Wilson, that was the problem. The guy in charge hadn’t put the ball in Wilson’s hands until it was too late.

“That should have been the moment of truth for everybody,” a source close to Wilson said.

As Wilson’s career progressed, he pushed for more involvement in roster decisions. From lobbying for acquiring Duane Brown — and adjusting his own contract to make room under the salary cap for the left tackle — to openly pushing for signing receiving weapons Josh Gordon, Antonio Brown and Greg Olsen, Wilson made clear his desire to be more involved.

“That’s the No. 1 thing he gets frustrated with: how much his input is valued or used inside the four walls of the (team facility),” one former Seahawks coach said. “Do they listen?”

Following the 2019 season, Wilson said the team needed to add more superstars in free agency and find young stars in the draft. It was a new level of public criticism from a player who had gone out of his way to avoid controversy. Wilson also again pushed for the Seahawks to run a more up-tempo offense and design a scheme similar to the one used by the eventual Super Bowl-champion Kansas City Chiefs.

Wilson got his wish to start the 2020 season as Schottenheimer unveiled a pass-first offense and Seattle raced to a 5-0 record. The quarterback dominated the MVP conversation during the season’s first half and even trademarked the phrase “Let Russ Cook.”

It was short-lived. As turnovers and losses piled up in the middle of the season, Carroll pulled back the reins. The Seahawks still won the division with a 12-4 record, but their offense went from one of the NFL’s best to mediocre. Carroll cited “philosophical differences” when firing Schottenheimer a few days after a wild-card loss to the Rams, a move the quarterback publicly lamented.

Wilson’s frustration was growing.

Sitting next to NFL commissioner Roger Goodell at the Super Bowl a few weeks later, Wilson watched Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady enhance his legacy with his seventh Super Bowl victory. Something seemed to trigger Wilson. He was finally willing to break Carroll’s No. 1 rule — “protect the team” — to make his discontent known.

“I’m frustrated with getting hit too much,” Wilson told reporters the morning after the game. He cited the number of times he had been sacked in his career and suggested he should have more control over personnel.

Carroll didn’t mind Wilson feeling frustrated about the way the season ended. After all, he was upset, too. The issue was making it public. “The conversation is out there that we wish we didn’t have to be sharing with the world,” Carroll said then.

Coach and quarterback had a lengthy “heart to heart” and the quarterback publicly said afterward his relationship with Carroll was “stronger than ever.” Carroll described the meeting as revisiting their background, foundation and vision for the future. “We regrouped,” he said.

But when Carroll later said that his relationship with Wilson was the best it’s ever been, a source close to the quarterback described the coach as “blowing smoke.” The sentiment on Wilson’s end was that Carroll in these discussions did nothing more than tell Wilson what he wanted to hear.

Wilson’s finger injury five weeks into the 2021 season, his rush back to the field and his poor play upon returning made this a complicated season to evaluate. But it didn’t change Wilson’s thinking that the Seahawks, as currently constructed, no longer provided Wilson the best opportunity to win Super Bowls and grow his legacy.

“I don’t think there’s any trust,” one source in Wilson’s camp said.

Without trust, the two sides couldn’t find a way to co-exist behind the scenes, which rendered their public comments meaningless. It didn’t matter that Carroll publicly dismissed trade rumors because they didn’t align with the private conversations he and Wilson were having. It didn’t matter that, ahead of the team’s home finale, Wilson said he hoped this wasn’t his final game in a Seattle uniform.

What mattered was that both sides knew the partnership was ending — so much so that after a Week 12 loss at Washington dropped Seattle to 3-8, a source close to Wilson delivered a prophetic message to a reporter covering the team:

“End of an era.”

LAS VEGAS

The Raiders are done with LB CORY LITTLETON.  Grant Gordon of NFL.com:

Once a high-priced signing with plenty of potential, Cory Littleton fell short of expectations with the Las Vegas Raiders and will be looking for a new club to call home.

The Raiders informed Littleton they’ll be releasing him when the new league year begins next week, NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reported Thursday.

On the heels of a Pro Bowl selection in 2018 and a career-high 134 tackles in 2019 with the Los Angeles Rams, Littleton signed a three-year, $35.2 million deal to join the Raiders, but was never able to cash in on the field for the Silver and Black.

A pre-June 1 release of Littleton will save the Raiders $1.76 million on the salary cap.

Littleton, who filled up the stat sheet and oozed versatility in the final two years of his four seasons with the Rams, never flashed his previous form with the Raiders and earned dismal Pro Football Focus grades of 47.1 and 47.8 in 2020 and 2021, respectively.

As the Raiders begin a new era under head coach Josh McDaniels and defensive coordinator Patrick Graham, Littleton will be looking for a new squad and hopefully a better fit to find his previous form.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Even with the big contract for WR MIKE WILLIAMS and the trade for high-priced EDGE KHALIL MACK, the Chargers are in good cap shape.  Mchael David Smith ofProFootballTalk.com:

Chargers General Manager Tom Telesco noted this month that the Chargers were in good cap shape in large part because quarterback Justin Herbert is still on his rookie deal. And the Chargers are doing all they can to capitalize on that.

The Chargers have now signed receiver Mike Williams to a new contract that gives him a $14 million cap number this year, and they’ve traded for Khalil Mack, who will have a $17.75 million cap number this year. And even after those two moves, the Chargers are still in good cap shape.

The Chargers will have about $25 million in cap space when the Mack trade becomes official at the start of the league year, according to OverTheCap.com.

That’s in large part because Herbert only counts $7.2 million against the cap in the third year of his rookie contract. A year from now, Herbert will be eligible for a new contract, and if he plays in 2022 like he played in 2021, he’ll surely be seeking one of the most lucrative contracts in NFL history. But in what may be the final year with Herbert playing on an absolute bargain of a contract, the Chargers are going all in.

HOUSTON

A Houston grand jury could decline to prosecute QB DESHAUN WATSON on Friday.  If that is the case, Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com identifies his potential suitors:

On Friday, much will potentially be learned about the criminal cases pending against Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson. Quite possibly, the door finally will swing open for a trade.

As we previously have reported, multiple teams are willing to trade for Watson without the 22 civil cases pending against him resolved. The current impediment continues to be the possibility that Watson will be indicted on one or more felony charges, and then placed on paid leave pending the resolution of the prosecution. (Last season, the Panthers were willing to trade for him despite the criminal investigation, but Watson wouldn’t waive his no-trade clause.)

If the grand jury does not indict Watson on felony charges, he could be traded when the new league year begins next week. So which teams would be interested?

As we previously explained, he could be looking at a suspension even without criminal charges, under the Ben Roethlisberger precedent. Thus, whoever gets Watson may not get him for several weeks of the regular season.

Still, it’s not a one-year move but a 10-year effort with Watson. So which teams should be watched? Here’s our list.

Panthers: They’re desperate to find a franchise quarterback. As mentioned above, they were willing to do the deal last year, with no clarity as to his various legal entanglements. That said, the tenuous status of coach Matt Rhule should give Watson pause, given that he possibly would have a new coach as soon as next year.

Seahawks: In 2017, Watson had a spectacular game in Seattle. He believes he suffered his torn ACL during that performance, with the ligament fully ripping apart at practice four days later. Now, the Seahawks have an obvious need at quarterback. They have the assets to get a deal done, given the Russell Wilson trade. However, does Watson see Seattle as a place where he can contend sooner than later? The team is clearly in rebuilding mode.

Eagles: Linked at times to Watson chatter last year, it never seemed that Watson was interested. Maybe he should be. The Eagles made it to the playoffs in 2021, and in a depleted NFC they could become a significant contender — especially with Watson at quarterback. And they could stick with Jalen Hurts (or Gardner Minshew) during a short-term suspension.

Vikings: If they find a trade partner for Kirk Cousins, Watson is the only available upgrade. However, they’d need a reliable bridge quarterback during a potential suspension. Kellen Mond doesn’t seem to be ready to play.

Buccaneers: Even without Tom Brady, the Bucs can contend at a high level. It makes plenty of sense, and it definitely would close the door on a Brady return. (He’s not coming back to the Buccaneers, anyway.)

Steelers: Although former Bucs quarterback Shaun King continues to push the idea that Watson is interested in the Steelers, the force of the all-caps “ARE NOT” interested report from Wednesday suggests that the source goes as high in the front office as possible.

Cardinals: If the Cards and Kyler Murray are at a contractual impasse, why not swap Murray for Watson? It would make plenty of sense for everyone, if Houston would be ready to pay Kyler big money.

TENNESSEE

Veteran OL ROGER SAFFOLD will be a Titan no more.  Michael Moraitis of USA TODAY:

The Tennessee Titans are reportedly parting ways with left guard Rodger Saffold in a move that will open up some much-needed cap space.

According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the Titans will release Saffold, who was set to play the final year of his four-year, $44 million deal. Cutting Saffold will save the Titans $10.4 million.

Saffold was one of the players we predicted would get cut, so this isn’t much of a surprise.

After having a rough start to his Titans tenure in 2019, Saffold became a stalwart at left guard and a leader for Tennessee in the years that followed.

However, the 2021 campaign was a rough one for the veteran, as he struggled in pass protection and dealt with injury that saw him coming in and out of games quite frequently.

Turning 34 in July, Saffold still has plenty left in the tank and should draw a ton of interest on the open market. Granted, his pass pro can be suspect, but he’s still a very good run-blocker.

As far as who the Titans could use to replace him, 2020 UDFA Aaron Brewer figures to be the top in-house solution after performing well in relief duty the past two seasons. Free agency and the 2022 NFL draft are two other avenues Tennessee could use to fill the void.

Saffold is the second player the Titans were reported to be cutting on Thursday, joining swing tackle Kendall Lamm. The two moves combined will save Tennessee about $13.5 million.

– – –

With rusher HAROLD LANDRY back in the fold, can the Titans pass rush their way to the Super Bowl?  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Titans re-signed edge rusher Harold Landry this week and the move keeps their defensive front together after a year that saw the team record 52 sacks between the regular season and the playoffs.

Landry produced 13.5 of those sacks, but none of them were able to help the Titans advance past their first postseason game. Much of the blame for that loss fell on the offense, but Landry said in a Thursday press conference that he believes the team’s defensive front is the key to greater success in the future.

 “We’re real confident that we have the team to go out to win the Super Bowl. I think our front four can lead the charge,” Landry said, via Ben Arthur of the Tennessean. “That’s another reason why I came back here, because the culture here is a winning culture. It’s a proven, winning culture. That was really important to me because we know we have the team to do it.”

Bud Dupree, Jeffery Simmons, and Denico Autry will join Landry in trying to disrupt opposing quarterbacks and their success will be a must in a conference that added Russell Wilson to a list of quarterbacks that already included the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Justin Herbert.

BUFFALO

G JON FELICIANO no longer lights the Bills’ fire.  Matt Parrino of NY Upstate:

The Buffalo Bills are planning to release veteran offensive lineman Jon Feliciano, a source tells Syracuse.com.

The move is expected to add about $3.4 million in cap room as general manager Brandon Beane continues to try and free up space ahead of the start of free agency next week.

Bills told Feliciano’s camp that they couldn’t keep him at his current number, per a source. According to Beane, Feliciano was not offered to take a pay cut or to restructure his contract. He signed a three-year deal with the Bills right before the start of free agency last offseason. The contract was structured in a way that gave Beane the ability to get out of it to create space. Feliciano now gets a chance to see what his value will be on the open market next week.

Feliciano started eight games in the four seasons he spent with the Oakland Raiders before signing with the Bills as a free agent in 2019. In the three seasons in Buffalo, he started 31 regular season games and four playoff games.

A Bills Mafia favorite during his tenure in Buffalo, Feliciano took to Twitter on Wednesday night to say goodbye: “It’s been great Buff.” he tweeted.

Feliciano played left guard, center, and right guard for the Bills during his three seasons. He’s open to playing any of those positions for his next team, but he’d like to try and play center full time, per a source.

THIS AND THAT

BOOM OR BUST FREE AGENTS

10 guys who could pop or fizzle from Gil Brandt of NFL.com:

On some level, every NFL contract represents a guess, built off a team’s projection of how well the player being signed will perform in the future. Teams will soon begin putting money behind these guess, with free agency opening on Wednesday, March 16. Before moves start being made, I wanted to highlight 10 players on the market who could either play like superstars or underwhelm on their next contracts — 10 boom-or-bust free agents, with “boom” and “bust” scenarios sketched out for each player.

NOTE: Players are listed with the age they will be on Sept. 8, when the 2022 NFL season is set to kick off.

Terron Armstead

OT · Age: 31

Boom: Armstead’s surgically repaired knee holds up, along with the rest of his body, and he’s able to be a dominant force up front for the majority of his next contract. Over the past five seasons, Pro Football Focus grades Armstead as the fourth-best offensive tackle overall and the third-best in pass-blocking.

Bust: Injury problems (he also dealt with an elbow injury in 2021) continue to dog him as he ages into his mid-30s, preventing him from living up to his new deal. It’s probably reasonable to assume Armstead will miss some time each year, given that he has yet to play a full season in the NFL. But there’s a difference between losing him for one or two games per season and having to make up for his absence for several weeks.

Brandon Scherff

OG · Age: 30

Boom: Scherff serves as an interior anchor, proving worthy of the contract he’s in line to earn as one of the top guards on the market. He’s talented and versatile, capable of occupying basically any spot along the offensive line.

Bust: Injuries continue to be an impediment, as they’ve been for the last several seasons. Scherff hasn’t appeared in a full complement of games in any year since 2016, most recently losing time in 2021 with a knee injury.

Jameis Winston

QB · Age: 28

Boom: After two years of seasoning under Sean Payton, Winston finally — finally! — puts it all together with an entire year of winning football. Winston’s lower-than-normal yardage totals seven games into 2021 belie the fact he was on pace to post the first single-digit interception total (on pace for seven) of his NFL tenure before he tore his ACL.

Bust: Whether because he struggles to recover from the injury or because he reverts to bad habits without Payton (or both), Winston plays himself onto the bench by midseason, setting himself on the Competent Veteran Backup track for the next phase of his career.

Randy Gregory

Edge · Age: 29

Boom: Gregory fulfills the potential that has been hinted at since the Cowboys drafted him in 2015, notching double-digit sacks for the first time. In 2021, he ranked second in Dallas in both sacks (six) and pressures (38), per Next Gen Stats.

Bust: With a chance to show what he’s capable of after the early portion of his career was interrupted by multiple suspensions, Gregory falters, failing to break out in the final season of his 20s. His health is also something to keep an eye on after he was sidelined by a calf injury in 2021 and underwent knee surgery in January.

Cordarrelle Patterson

RB/WR · Age: 31

Boom: Patterson’s awakening as a true dual-threat asset at 30 years old takes hold, and he makes a real difference both on the ground and over the air. Patterson and Chargers back Austin Ekeler were the only two players in the NFL to post at least 20 catches and 20 rushes of 10-plus yards last season. And while running backs don’t often thrive into their fourth decade, Patterson should have a decent amount of tread on his tires, having averaged just three offensive touches per game between 2013 and 2020.

Bust: The magic fades, and Patterson turns back into the fitfully useful offensive fringe player he was for most of the first eight seasons of his career. This scenario looms much larger if he changes teams and shrinks considerably if he stays in Atlanta with the coach (Arthur Smith) who finally figured out how to make the most of his potential.

O.J. Howard

TE · Age: 27

Boom: The former first-rounder shows off the ability suggested by his promising first three NFL seasons (31.3 catches and 485.3 yards per year, with a yards-per-catch mark of 15.5).

Bust: Howard’s plunge toward the bottom of the pecking order in Tampa in 2021 after missing most of 2020 with an Achilles injury (he finished with just 21 targets, behind eight other Bucs, including tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate, and a career-low 9.6 yards per grab) proves to be a harbinger of things to come, and he ultimately fails to make the kind of impact one would expect from a first-round pick in their sixth pro season.

Odell Beckham

WR · Age: 29

Boom: Beckham’s recovery from an ACL tear in Super Bowl LVI goes well, and upon his return, he picks up right where he left off in that game, having been rejuvenated by Matthew Stafford and the Rams (48 catches, 593 yards, seven TDs in 12 games, including the playoffs) after one of his worst stretches as a pro (17 catches, 232 yards, zero scores in six games with Cleveland last season).

Bust: After dealing with two ACL injuries in less than two years, Beckham — who will turn 30 this November — is unable to return to form. The sparkling start to his career (he posted at least 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns in each of his first three pro seasons) ends up seeming further away than ever.

Leighton Vander Esch

OLB· Age: 26

Boom: Coming off his first full season since his 2018 debut, Vander Esch makes good on the promise suggested by that impressive rookie effort, in which he led the Cowboys in tackles (138), while also chipping in two picks and seven passes defensed. A return to elite status could make Vander Esch a relative bargain for whichever team lands him.

Bust: Whether because of more bad injury luck (Vander Esch missed 13 games in 2019 and ’20) or an inability to recapture that first-year magic, Vander Esch reverses the gains he achieved in 2021, when he earned a good-not-great defensive grade from PFF that placed him 10th among Cowboys defenders.

Eric Fisher

OT· Age: 31

Boom: One of the biggest names among the available tackles after Armstead (with Orlando Brown being tagged by the Chiefs), Fisher solidifies someone’s blind-side protection for the next several seasons.

Bust: Fisher’s middling 2021 (his PFF grade ranked him 46th among tackles) serves as the high-water mark for the latter portion of his career, and he fails to play up to his pedigree as a former No. 1 overall pick.

Leonard Fournette

RB· Age: 27

Boom: Coming off one of his more efficient seasons on a per-carry basis (he posted a career-high mark of 4.5 yards in 2021), Fournette plays with enough pop to outproduce the rest of this year’s class of free agent backs, securing a stable home for himself in someone’s rushing attack.

Bust: Fournette’s per-game impact continues to be a crapshoot (he notched consecutive games with 80-plus yards just once last season, in Weeks 6 and 7), and he makes this list for a third straight time in 2023. Although perhaps that would be a fitting outcome for a player who has run for 50-plus yards in almost exactly half of his career regular-season games (32 of 63).

2022 DRAFT

Josh Edwards of CBSSports.com offers this upgraded Mock Draft:

1 – JACKSONVILLE

Evan Neal OL

ALABAMA • JR • 6’7″ / 350 LBS

Despite Jacksonville’s decision to franchise tag Cam Robinson, I do not necessarily think it means it is not taking an offensive lineman. The franchise tag gives the Jaguars flexibility to make other moves without exposing Trevor Lawrence. I will be monitoring their actions in free agency very closely.

2 – DETROIT

Aidan Hutchinson EDGE

MICHIGAN • SR • 6’6″ / 265 LBS

Until I move off an offensive tackle with the No. 1 overall selection, Hutchinson is going to be the choice at No. 2 overall. He is a strong player who fits into the culture Dan Campbell is trying to cultivate in the Motor City. Hutchinson jerseys are going to be flying off the shelves in Detroit.

3 – HOUSTON

Ikem Ekwonu OL

NC STATE • SOPH • 6’4″ / 320 LBS

If Houston is committed to trading Laremy Tunsil, then it needs to replace that loss of talent if it is to give Davis Mills a fair evaluation. Ekwonu helps bridge the gap from the loss of Tunsil. If the Texans keep Tunsil, then it opens the door for other positions like edge rusher and cornerback.

4 – NY JETS

Kayvon Thibodeaux EDGE

OREGON • SOPH • 6’5″ / 258 LBS

The talk of Thibodeaux falling has gotten overblown. He is too talented to fall outside of the top 10 for the reasons being thrown around. New York would be wise to take him knowing it has veterans like Carl Lawson and Quinnen Williams in that locker room.

5 – NY GIANTS

Ahmad Gardner CB

CINCINNATI • JR • 6’2″ / 188 LBS

When Gardner ran the 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine, his time came in unofficially and it was a good time. When it was corrected to 4.41 seconds, it caught your attention. Here is a man coverage cornerback who has length and plays with physicality that now has certified speed vertically. At that speed, he is in the same testing bucket as players like Desean Jackson, Emmanuel Sanders and Tyler Lockett.

6 – CAROLINA

Charles Cross OL

MISSISSIPPI STATE • SOPH • 6’5″ / 310 LBS

What is Carolina going to do at quarterback? If it wants a quarterback who can come in and contribute immediately, then it is probably perusing the veteran market. If the Panthers are looking for more long-term stability at the position, then the draft could be the way to go. In this scenario, they land a veteran quarterback who does not cost more than a Day 2 pick and draft the best among the perceived top group of offensive linemen.

7 – NY GIANTS (from Chicago)

Travon Walker DL

GEORGIA • JR • 6’5″ / 275 LBS

Without a doubt one of the biggest risers in Indianapolis, Walker leaps off the board to the Giants. When talking about his athletic testing performance, he is up there with the Myles Garretts of the world. However, he is far less polished as a pass rusher than Garrett was coming out. Georgia simply did not ask him to work vertically often. Walker’s trajectory could be more similar to Rashan Gary, who was drafted No. 12 overall in 2019 but has emerged as a key contributor for that Green Bay defense.

8 – ATLANTA

Malik Willis QB

LIBERTY • JR • 6’1″ / 219 LBS

There is some discussion that Matt Ryan may not be back in the fold, which is difficult to believe considering the financials. We have seen some exorbitant cap charges traded, but Ryan is an entirely different ball game. Whether Ryan is on the roster or not, it makes sense for Atlanta to draft a quarterback. In the event that the veteran is on the roster, there is no better mentor for a young quarterback.

9 – SEATTLE (from Denver)

Matt Corral QB

OLE MISS • JR • 6’2″ / 212 LBS

Seattle walked into the Tuesday meeting for Quarterbacks Anonymous and introduced themselves as the new team in the market. With Russell Wilson no longer in the picture, there are two options: 1) start Drew Lock/Geno Smith in 2022 and attempt to get a quarterback next year, or 2) take a quarterback this year and ride out the storm. In this scenario, the Seahawks ride out the storm with Corral.

 10 – NY JETS (from Seattle)

Kyle Hamilton S

NOTRE DAME • JR • 6’4″ / 220 LBS

General manager Joe Douglas is a decision-maker who has made great decisions since arriving in the Big Apple. I understand the franchise traded Jamal Adams, but Hamilton is arguably the best prospect in the class and is still available for the Jets’ second first-round pick. Derek Stingley Jr. is very enticing, but Hamilton seems like a safer bet.

11 – WASHINGTON

Drake London WR

USC • JR • 6’5″ / 210 LBS

Carson Wentz has arrived in the nation’s capital, and that means Washington needs to have a strong run game. Unfortunately, I like Antonio Gibson, so the only way to do that would be to upgrade the interior offensive line (who knows if Brandon Scherff is returning), and it is too early for that discussion. Instead, the Commanders add a big body at wide receiver who can go up and win some of those “best of luck in your future endeavors” passes.

12 – MINNESOTA

Derek Stingley Jr. CB

LSU • JR • 6’1″ / 195 LBS

It is the question as old as time with Minnesota, which comes first: the cornerback or the edge rusher? Fans could make a case for Florida State edge rusher Jermaine Johnson II here, but Stingley is a better overall talent when performing at his peak. The Vikings have had better luck with edge rushers than cornerbacks, so maybe they are gun shy to return to the latter well.

13 – CLEVELAND

Garrett Wilson WR

OHIO STATE • JR • 6’0″ / 192 LBS

Cleveland is on the border of getting great value and finding zero options on the table. The Browns are one of the teams who could benefit the most from some quarterback action in the top 10. The Browns have done a great job of taking advantage of the board in recent years. If one of those blue-chip talents at wide receiver or edge rusher falls to them, that is the ideal scenario.

14 BALTIMORE

Jordan Davis DL

GEORGIA • SOPH • 6’6″ / 330 LBS

Davis delivered one of the combine performances to remember in Indianapolis last week. Teams who do not envision him being a three-down player will still have a difficult time justifying the use of a top 15 pick, but Baltimore is one of the teams that still values a heavier interior defensive lineman. The Ravens get younger and cheaper with the addition of the Bulldog.

15 – PHILADELPHIA (from Miami)

Jermaine Johnson II EDGE

FLORIDA STATE • SR • 6’5″ / 260 LBS

I am doubting that Johnson is still on the board at this point in the actual draft, but it worked out today for the Eagles. Philadelphia gets a core piece to its defensive front for the next decade and still has two picks in the first-round to make a big splash. Johnson, a Georgia transfer, is the third former Bulldog defensive lineman taken in the first round. Spoiler: he will not be the last.

16 PHILADELPHIA (from Indianapolis)

Devin Lloyd LB

UTAH • JR • 6’3″ / 235 LBS

Lloyd did not test as well in the 40-yard dash as one would like, but the tape does not show a player with limited range. He may fall a little further than anticipated, but this is a player who teams are going to be comfortable taking in the first round. The Eagles have a need at the position as they continue renovating that front seven.

17 – LA CHARGERS

Devonte Wyatt DL

GEORGIA • SR • 6’3″ / 315 LBS

Wyatt is a bit older than the average prospect expected to be taken in the first round, and that could lead some teams to shy away. Los Angeles understands the type of talent that he is and is willing to take a chance on his shorter-term potential because of the team’s need for interior pass rush and run defense.

18 – PITTSBURGH

Kenny Pickett QB

PITTSBURGH • SR • 6’3″ / 217 LBS

To me, Pickett looks like the quarterback prospect most ready to compete right now. There are going to be teams that take issue with his below-average hand size, but the Saints play in a dome against predominantly southern teams. If there was an ideal situation for him, New Orleans may be that team.

19 – PHILADELPHIA

Trent McDuffie CB

WASHINGTON • SOPH • 5’11” / 195 LBS

Philadelphia caps its defensive overhaul with the addition of McDuffie. The Eagles complete the night with Jermaine Johnson II, Devin Lloyd and now McDuffie. Those choices are not going to answer the questions about the offense as a whole, but it will go a long way towards ensuring stability on the defensive side of the ball.

20 – PITTSBURGH

Desmond Ridder QB

CINCINNATI • SR • 6’3″ / 211 LBS

If Pittsburgh was drawn to Malik Willis, who was taken much earlier, then it stands to reason that it could be looking for a quarterback with a more accurate profile. Ridder had some accuracy issues that I was down on, but some believe that is an easy fix by drilling in footwork mechanics. If that is the case, then I can understand why a team would be drawn to the Bearcat.

21 – CINCINNAIT (Mock Trade from New England)

Tyler Linderbaum OL

IOWA • JR • 6’3″ / 290 LBS

Cincinnati once took Billy Price in the first round, and that particular gamble did not pay off. However, Linderbaum is a higher quality talent than Price was coming out. He is a monster in space. The Bengals get a bit aggressive to ensure they get one of the top offensive linemen available in the class. I could also understand targeting Trevor Penning in this instance, but the chatter coming out of Cincinnati is a larger focus on the interior offensive line. New England receives No. 31 overall, No. 63 overall and No. 95 overall. Cincinnati gets this choice as well as No. 85 overall.

22 – LAS VEGAS

Jameson Williams WR

ALABAMA • JR • 6’2″ / 189 LBS

Williams would have been in contention to be the first wide receiver taken had it not been for his ACL injury. With speed to burn, the Alabama product adds an explosive element to Las Vegas’ offense, allowing Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller to work the short to intermediate.

23 – ARIZONA

Kaiir Elam CB

FLORIDA • JR • 6’2″ / 196 LBS

Arizona addresses a need at cornerback with the selection of Elam. Often overlooked when discussing the top options at the position, Elam is a bigger cornerback with good production over the last three years. He has averaged two interceptions per season, with half of those coming against SEC competition.

24 – DALLAS

George Karlaftis EDGE

PURDUE • JR • 6’4″ / 275 LBS

I like Karlaftis’ game a lot, but his trip to Indianapolis was a mixed bag. He had shorter arms than you’d like and declined to run a 3-cone drill, which measures the agility and change of direction that so many desperately wanted to see from him. There is talk that Randy Gregory or Demarcus Lawrence could be out in Dallas, so Karlaftis is an easy addition.

25 – BUFFALO

Jahan Dotson WR

PENN STATE • SR • 5’11” / 184 LBS

With Emmanuel Sanders gone and Cole Beasley being granted permission to seek a trade, Buffalo has a need for that speed element in the pass game. Penn State’s Dotson has good size for the role and has shown versatility to work all three levels of the field. Keep the cupboard stocked for Josh Allen.

26 – TENNESSEE

Chris Olave WR

OHIO STATE • SR • 6’1″ / 188 LBS

Whether this year or next, Tennessee is going to move on from Julio Jones sooner rather than later. If that happens this offseason, then the Titans would already have his replacement. If he returns, then the team has insurance at the position and a prospect who can take over once Jones is gone. More and more teams are subscribing to the idea that you need three wide receivers or more in today’s NFL.

27 – TAMPA BAY

Zion Johnson OL

BOSTON COLLEGE • SR • 6’3″ / 316 LBS

Tampa Bay is in a position where they could lose Ryan Jensen, Alex Cappa and Ali Marpet in the same offseason. Zero teams are able to sustain that amount of loss to the interior offensive line, especially considering the loss of Tom Brady. Brady makes the life of an offensive lineman so much easier because they know where he is going to be in the pocket at all times. Kyle Trask is going to need that security bolstered if they expect him to perform well and play with confidence.

28 – GREEN BAY

David Ojabo EDGE

MICHIGAN • JR • 6’5″ / 250 LBS

There has already been discussion that Green Bay is moving on from Za’Darius Smith. It could also move on from Preston Smith knowing that it is a deep year for the edge rusher position. The cumulative salary cap savings of both Smiths is close to $28 million while embracing a new era with Rashan Gary and Ojabo.

29 – MIAMI (from San Francisco)

Trevor Penning OL

NORTHERN IOWA • JR • 6’7″ / 321 LBS

I do not expect Penning to be available at this stage of the first round in the actual draft. However, when working through picks, you realize some outcomes are a little more realistic than it seems. It is similar to NFL power rankings: you can argue 15 different teams as being worthy of the top 10, but it does not change the fact that there are only 10 picks.

30 – KANSAS CITY

Treylon Burks WR

ARKANSAS • JR • 6’3″ / 225 LBS

Burks is an interesting case. He did not test well in vertical speed, explosion or change of direction. We can talk about running the gauntlet and other on-field drills, but those raw athletic testing results are going to be a bit concerning for teams. Do I think his talent is any different today than it was two weeks ago? No, but when everyone is talking about the wide receiver group being clustered, teams will rely on testing results to break ties. It could result in Burks going later than what many initially expected, and Kansas City is not asking too many questions.

   Mock Trade from Cincinnati Bengals

31 – NEW ENGLAND (Mock Trade from Cincinnati)

Nakobe Dean LB

GEORGIA • JR • 6’0″ / 225 LBS

After trading back with Cincinnati, New England picks up a hard-nose linebacker who plays the game fast, but smart. His size may be below average, but he scored very high on the “intangibles that Bill Belichick likes in a linebacker” test. At 31 years old, Dont’a Hightower is entering free agency coming off a year in which he did not perform the way Foxboro is accustomed to him

performing.

32 – DETROIT (from LA Rams)

George Pickens WR

GEORGIA • JR • 6’3″ / 200 LBS

Prior to his ACL injury, Pickens was in the conversation as being one of the best wide receivers available in the 2022 NFL Draft. When he returned, it was in a limited role, and that meant talk surrounding Pickens has been relatively quiet. There is nothing quiet about a 6-foot-3 wide receiver running a 4.47-second 40-yard dash. He is of slender build but has as much potential to become a No. 1 wide receiver as anyone in this class.