The NFL Draft will take place as scheduled, April 23-25, the league revealed on Thursday in a memo sent to all 32 teams.

In response to general managers calling for the draft to be postponed as facilities have been shut down and college pro days, prospect workouts and visits have been canceled because of the coronavirus pandemic, the NFL Management Council Executive Committee was “unanimous and unequivocal” to move forward.

Giants co-owner John Mara is the chairman of the committee, whose decision is supported by many other owners, team executives and coaches, according to commissioner Roger Goodell.

“Everyone recognizes that public health conditions are highly uncertain,” Goodell wrote, “and there is no assurance that we can select a different date and be confident that conditions will be significantly more favorable than they are today.”

Saying the draft will “serve a very positive purpose,” Goodell directed “all clubs should now be doing the necessary planning to conduct Draft operations in a location outside of your facility, with a limited number of people present, and with sufficient technology resources to allow you to communicate internally, with other clubs and with Draft headquarters.”

The NFL has canceled all public events around the draft, and prospects and their family members will not be in attendance. It has been moved out of host city of Las Vegas and will be a television-only production.

The customary format is the first round Thursday, the second and third rounds Friday and the fourth-through-seventh rounds Saturday.

Mike Florio:

He’s right. With no live sports for weeks if not longer, the draft is all we’ll have. And the draft will, as a result, perform better than ever before, even though it will look like never before.

“Because of the unique circumstances in our country today, the 2020 Draft will obviously need to be conducted in a different way,” Goodell wrote. “Already, we have cancelled all public events, we will not be bringing prospects and their families to the Draft, and the Draft itself will be conducted and televised in a way that reflects current conditions.

“Our staff is certainly mindful of the operational issues this presents, and our top priority is putting in place procedures that allow all clubs to operate on a level playing field so that the Draft is conducted in a way that is competitively fair to all clubs. All clubs should now be doing the necessary planning to conduct Draft operations in a location outside of your facility, with a limited number of people present, and with sufficient technology resources to allow you to communicate internally, with other clubs, and with Draft headquarters. Needless to say, we will be prepared to adjust to changed circumstances in the next several weeks, including the prospect of clubs being able to resume even limited operations within their facilities.”

That will happen only if none of the states in which the NFL does business has mandatory “stay at home” orders in place when the draft begins. Currently, that’s highly unlikely. Which means that all facilities likely will remain closed, and that the coverage of the draft will look like every news and sports show currently does: People using their phones as cameras, and AirPods as earpieces.

Goodall also tells the NFL’s GMs to bow before Zod on the issue.  ESPN:

He wrote in the memo, “public discussion of issues relating to the Draft serves no useful purpose and is grounds for disciplinary action.”

– – –

Earlier this week, league sources told ESPN the league planned to hold the draft as scheduled despite a recommendation from the league’s general manager subcommittee that it be moved back.

General managers were concerned that, in this current environment, with offseason activities canceled and team facilities closed, there won’t be enough time for player physicals, gathering psychological testing and getting further verified information about the players, in addition to the logistical challenges of some teams having to conduct the draft from home.

On Wednesday’s “The Peter King Podcast,” New Orleans Saints general manager Mickey Loomis, a member of the GM subcommittee, expressed his preference to push back the draft.

CHICAGO

Even if no one else does, TE JIMMY GRAHAM still believes in himself.  Grant Gordon ofNFL.com:

Jimmy Graham hauled in a surprising two-year, $16 million deal with the Bears and Chicago immediately caught plenty of criticism for the move that puzzled a plethora of pundits and fans, alike.

In his first chance to address the media on Thursday, Graham proclaimed that he’s still got it.

“I’m still fast,” he said, via ESPN. “I still have the ability to make big plays.”

That’s in doubt considering his recent statistical output and the fact that the rival Packers released him. But the 6-foot-7 former Saint, Seahawk and Packer who was once one of the very best at his position said the release has served as kindling.

“It was the first time I lost my job,” Graham said. “It’s lit a fire.”

Graham’s production was largely extinguished in his two seasons of struggle with the Packers as his two campaigns saw him produce just five touchdowns, 93 receptions and 1,083 yards combined.

In the last of his five Pro Bowl years, Graham had 10 touchdowns with the Seahawks in 2017, but his nose for the end zone was really the only remnant from his star turn in New Orleans, highlighted by an All-Pro 2013 showing in which he led the NFL with 16 touchdowns, as he likewise garnered 86 catches and 1,215 yards.

“I know what player I am and I know what I can do,” Graham said. “I think I was able to show a little bit of that in the playoffs with some of the opportunities I was given. And after being 10 years in, I’ve only missed six games. That’s coming off of, at times, all kinds of injuries … at times I’ve kind of been on ice the last two years so my knee right now is the best it’s felt in four or five years. This is the best that I’ve ran, this is the fastest I’ve been in the last four or five years. I’m going to get back to being me, I’m going to get back to making big plays and scoring touchdowns because I think I’m somewhere in the top of scoring touchdowns and I want to continue that, I want to continue climbing that list and get to where I’m supposed to be.”

Though Graham’s productivity has waned, the level of quarterback he’s played with has not. From Drew Brees to Russell Wilson to Aaron Rodgers, Graham has caught balls from the NFL’s best. Now he’ll head into a Bears offense rife with concerns at the position as Mitchell Trubisky is fast drifting past draft bust to draft blunder and the Bears’ biggest offseason move thus far has been trading for Nick Foles. Just who will be throwing to Graham, fast as he might well be, will be a prevailing storyline.

But he’s caught up to speed with that, as well.

“Obviously that’s kind of one of the big stories this offseason is our quarterback room,” Graham said, “but I’m excited to work with both of them and to see where I can help both of them and where we can all get on the same page.”

For Graham and the Bears’ quarterback situation, turning the page on past struggles is what Chicago and its fans are hoping for the most.

CAROLINA

Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com is generally favorable to the signing of QB TEDDY BRIDGEWATER:

Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Carolina Panthers

The deal: Three years, $63 million

Grade: B

It’s hard not to root for the much-loved Bridgewater, who has officially come all the way back from his career-threatening knee injury to earn a starting job with another team. The Panthers are giving him $40 million guaranteed over the next two seasons and shopping Cam Newton, who will either be cut or traded. There’s a chance that Carolina could draft a quarterback in 2021 if Bridgewater struggles, but for now, Teddy is the man in Carolina.

The move reunites Bridgewater with new Panthers offensive coordinator Joe Brady, who served as an offensive assistant with the Saints in 2018 before taking over as LSU’s offensive coordinator last season. Brady was able to unlock something special in Joe Burrow, who turned into the presumptive first overall pick in his final season with the Tigers. Asking Bridgewater to produce one of the best seasons we’ve ever seen is a little much, but he could be a good fit with the offensive concepts Burrow ran in 2019.

Bridgewater’s biggest strength is quickly working through his progressions to make accurate throws to open receivers. Brady had similar faith in Burrow, whom he frequently placed in empty backfields and trusted to find an open receiver before any blitz could get home. Bridgewater should get to do the same in Carolina. Of course, Burrow had one of the best receiving corps in recent memory to pluck 50/50 balls out of the air; Bridgewater isn’t going to have those sort of mismatches in Carolina.

The Panthers do have receivers such as Christian McCaffrey, Curtis Samuel and DJ Moore, each of whom can make teams pay after the catch. Bridgewater’s accuracy should put those receivers in positions in which they can catch balls in stride. I wouldn’t expect the Panthers to be an explosive downfield attack, but they should be able to create big plays by making defenders miss in the open field.

The downside here is that Bridgewater has thrown just 221 passes the past four seasons. He was solid in winning all five of his starts with the Saints last season, but that was in about as quarterback-friendly of an offense as you can imagine, given New Orleans’ playcalling and personnel. Just one of the five teams Bridgewater beat during that stretch finished in the top 10 for pass defense DVOA, and that was the eighth-placed Bears. The Carolina offensive line is also a work in progress after trading Trai Turner for Russell Okung, and the only tight end of note on the roster is Ian Thomas.

This is a good fit for both player and team. Bridgewater is now one of the few quarterbacks in the league on a middle-class deal, given that everyone else is either typically on a rookie deal or on a contract north of $25 million per season. The unique, unpredictable path he took here makes that a fair deal, and if he plays the way he did with the Saints a year ago, it could be a bargain for new coach Matt Rhule.

TAMPA BAY

Bruce Arians says that signing WR ANTONIO BROWN was not part of the deal that brought QB TOM BRADY to the Buccaneers.  Jenna Laine of ESPN.com:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers coach Bruce Arians is putting an end to any speculation that his team will be signing free-agent wide receiver Antonio Brown, even with Tom Brady now its starting quarterback.

On the “Tiki and Tierney” show on CBS Sports Network Thursday, Arians was asked by Tiki Barber about the likelihood of Brown coming to Tampa Bay.

“Yeah, it’s not gonna happen,” Arians said. “There’s no room. And probably not enough money. But it’s not gonna happen — it’s not a fit here.”

Brandon Tierney did point out that there is room since the Bucs lost speedster Breshad Perriman in free agency to the Jets, before asking if Arians would be willing to sign Brown at the veteran minimum, just so he could play with pal Brady.

“No,” Arians said. When asked if it was because he didn’t trust what Brown would do for the culture of the team, Arians said, “Yeah, I just know him, and — it’s not a fit in our locker room.”

Arians, who worked with Brown when they were with the Pittsburgh Steelers, said last year on the Adam Schefter Podcast that Brown was “too much of a diva.”

“I’ve heard so many stories — I like Antonio — he plays as hard as anybody on Sunday, and he practices hard. He’s just gotta make better decisions off the field, be on time, do some of those little things,” Arians said before recalling Browns’ practice battles against Emmanuel Sanders. Brown responded then by taking a shot at Arians and Sanders.

The move would have made little sense to begin with, even with Brady and Brown’s relationship. The Bucs already have two Pro Bowl 1,100-yard receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The 2020 draft class is also considered very deep at the position.

– – –

The Buccaneers have re-inked DT NDAMUKONG SUH.  Bill Barnwell of ESPN.comgives his approval:

Ndamukong Suh, DT, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The deal: One year, $8 million

Grade: A-

Although Suh has seemed content to wander the league on a series of one-year deals since he left the Dolphins after the 2017 season, the Bucs saw enough from the five-time Pro Bowler last season to keep him around for another season. Suh didn’t dominate as a pass-rusher, but his alliance with wildly underrated tackle Vita Vea was the biggest reason the Bucs improved from 31st in rush defense DVOA in 2018 to the league’s top rush defense this past campaign.

Suh also brings an underrated asset to the table: availability. The 33-year-old has never missed a game due to injury and has appeared on the injury report only three times in 10 seasons. The Bucs can feel confident that Suh is going to show up and play about 875 defensive snaps at a high level, which is not the case for a majority of free-agent signings. Tampa still has about $16 million in cap room to play with and should continue to attract veterans who want to get one final run with Tom Brady.

LOS ANGELES RAMS

Rams fans are speaking – and they don’t like the new logos.  Lindsay Thiry ofESPN.com:

Hall of Fame running back Eric Dickerson has offered to be the voice of Los Angeles Rams fans who have been angry about the new team logos that were released earlier this week.

Dickerson, who is the Rams’ vice president of business development, considers himself among those who are unhappy with the new look.

On Wednesday, Dickerson tweeted that he would speak with the Rams about fans’ concerns.

“@RamsNFL fans, I reviewed your comments regarding new logos and share in your disappointment,” Dickerson tweeted. “I’ll be speaking with the Rams on our behalf. Please like if you prefer the logo on the left and retweet to vote for the logo on the right (Rams booster club). – The Rambassador.”

Dickerson’s post included two alternate logos created by fans and shared across social media.

On Monday, the Rams revealed the first of a two-part rebranding effort as they prepare for the 2020 season in their new home at SoFi Stadium. The Rams unveiled updated team colors and logos, and new uniforms are expected to roll out later this spring.

The Rams have moved on from the navy blue, light gold and white color scheme that they adopted in 2000 in St. Louis. Their new colors are similar to their throwback royal blue and gold — but with a brighter twist. The Rams are calling their new hues “Rams Royal” and “Sol.”

Before the reveal, Rams chief operating officer Kevin Demoff acknowledged that for some fans, the new look would require an adjustment period.

“I’m sure it will be a surprise. It will be change,” Demoff said. “But lots of things are, and I think it’s a change that our fans will come to know and love over time.”

During a virtual telethon the Rams hosted Tuesday on a local television station to raise funds for coronavirus relief, Demoff said that if more than $2 million were raised, he would read the top 10 mean tweets he received about the new logos. The telethon raised more than $2,045,000, according to the Rams.

Rams fans also created an online petition to change the new logo. More than 6,200 signatures have been collected.

This is not the first time Dickerson, a star player for the Rams in the 1980s, has expressed his displeasure about matters within the organization. In 2016, during the Rams’ homecoming season in Los Angeles, Dickerson voiced criticism across several media outlets, including ESPN, about coach Jeff Fisher as the team stumbled to a 4-9 record.

– – –

The Rams have re-signed DT MICHAEL BROCKERS – but only after medical reasons prevent him from signing with the Ravens.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

It didn’t work out for defensive tackle Michael Brockers in Baltimore, but his return to the open market didn’t last long.

Brockers’ agent Scott Casterline told Ian Rapoport of NFL Media that his client is returning to the Rams. It’s a three-year deal with a maximum value of $31.5 million.

Brockers agreed to a three-year, $30 million deal with the Ravens last week, but reports surfaced this week that the deal was in jeopardy because the Ravens had concerns about the condition of his ankle. Friday morning brought word the deal was off and the Ravens confirmed it a short time later.

Brockers has spent his entire eight-year career with the Rams and has been a fixture in the starting lineup since he joined the team. That figures to remain the case after his brief departure went up in a puff of smoke.

Did the Rams really sign him for more money after the deal with the Ravens went south?

JACKSONVILLE

A deal between the Jaguars and CB DARQUEZE DENNARD falls apart.  Nick Shook ofNFL.com:

Until the ink is dried on the paper, a deal is not official.

Cornerback Darqueze Dennard had agreed to join the Jacksonville Jaguars following the start of the new league year, but that has fallen through. The Jaguars will not be employing Dennard, as the two sides couldn’t come to an agreement on final contract terms, NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reported.

“He remains an unrestricted free agent,” the Jaguars said at the end of their statement on the matter, per Pelissero.

Dennard was set to sign a three-year, $13.5 million deal with $6 million guaranteed, Pelissero reported on March 17. Instead, the corner is still available for hire in an unusual outcome.

The 28-year-old played in nine games last season, tallying 37 tackles and five passes defended, but was headed out of Cincinnati in pursuit of a new opportunity as the Bengals revamped their secondary. Where Dennard heads from here remains to be seen.

BUFFALO

QB JOSH ALLEN is sky high over the trade for WR STEFON DIGGS.  Kevin Patra ofNFL.com:

The Buffalo Bills made a big splash this offseason, sending a trove of draft picks to Minnesota for wide receiver Stefon Diggs.

The move has quarterback Josh Allen geeked about the 2020 season. The young signal-caller told Adam Schein on Mad Dog Sports Radio he can’t wait to get to work with Diggs.

“I’m still pumped about it,” Allen told Schein, via New York Upstate. “I’m still floating on cloud nine right now. I just can’t wait to get to work with him. Obviously with all this stuff going around, travelling and trying to get in touch, start throwing with him, that’s going to be a little delayed. I just want to get back to work. We’ve been staying in contact and trying to devise a plan of how we can get together. But man, the things he can do on a football field are unbelievable. The route running. The way he can make contested catches. I’ve talked to him on the phone a couple times and just how cool of a dude he seems. He’s going to match in very well with our wide receiver group, he’s going to match within our locker room and with our team. Big-time playmaker. He’s going to help us out a lot this year.”

Diggs joins a Buffalo receiver corps that already included John Brown and Cole Beasley.

Allen displayed improvement in Year 2, but still struggled with certain throws, including the deep ball and fitting passes into tight windows.

Diggs remains one of the best receivers in the NFL at gaining separation at the line of scrimmage, opening throwing lanes for his quarterbacks. His addition should make life immensely easier on Allen.

With Diggs, Brown and Beasley all able to shake free from defensive backs, the Bills have cobbled together a receiver corps that puts Allen in the best position to continue to progress as he enters a pivotal season.

THIS AND THAT

2020 DRAFT

Football Outsiders has a metric called QBASE that seeks to transfer collegiate performance into likelihood of professional success.  Aaron Schatz geeks out atESPN.com – and he has flashing lights all over Utah State’s JORDAN LOVE:

There’s no risk in the NFL quite like the risk of drafting a quarterback. No defense revolves around a single player the way every offense revolves around the quarterback. Trust your offense to the wrong young quarterback, and your team isn’t going to climb back into playoff contention. Quarterbacks get drafted earlier than players who rank similarly at their respective positions. And while quarterbacks have more statistics measuring them than other players do, teams haven’t been more accurate in drafting them. Just ask the Chicago Bears, who selected Mitchell Trubisky before Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes three years ago.

The lessons of history can at least help us figure out how much of a risk each quarterback prospect will be. That’s the point of Football Outsiders’ quarterback-adjusted stats and experience (QBASE) projection system. It looks at college performance, experience, and expected draft position (to incorporate scouting information that college stats will miss). To allow some time for development, QBASE projects a quarterback’s efficiency (passing only) in Years 3-5 of his career according to Football Outsiders’ defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) metric. A total of 50,000 simulations produces a range of potential outcomes for each prospect, with players drafted later generally having a larger range of possibilities.

You’ll notice that every listed quarterback prospect has a chance to be elite, and every quarterback has a chance to be a bust. That reflects just how much we don’t know about drafting quarterbacks, and the wide range of possible outcomes for each player.

QBASE favors quarterbacks expected to go high in the draft who also have a relatively long résumé of college success, according to the stats. Those stats include completion percentage, adjusted yards per attempt (adjusted for touchdowns and interceptions), and team passing efficiency (measured with Bill Connelly’s passing SP+ stats). These numbers are adjusted both for the quality of the defenses that a prospect had to face as well as the quality of his offensive teammates. QBASE is meant to be used only on players chosen in the top 100 picks; after that, the judgment of scouts becomes even more important, and statistics become even less predictive.

Overall, QBASE thinks this is a good year for moderately promising quarterback prospects. None of this year’s quarterbacks comes close to the top projections in QBASE history, in part because no top quarterback prospect this year has four full seasons as a college starter.

However, this is the first year with three prospects with mean projections over 600 DYAR since 2012 (Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin and Russell Wilson) and the first year with five prospects with mean projections over 400 DYAR since 2006. Then again, those five quarterbacks in 2006 were Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, Kellen Clemens, Vince Young and Tarvaris Jackson — once again demonstrating that projecting quarterbacks is very difficult.

Here are projections for eight quarterbacks who might go in the top 100 picks of the 2020 NFL draft.

Joe Burrow, LSU Tigers

Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 2

Mean projection in Years 3-5: 759 DYAR

Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 42%

Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 27%

Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 18%

Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 13%

Joe Burrow’s 2019 season was among the greatest in college football history. He set a record with 60 touchdown passes. His completion rate of 76.3% was the second highest ever. His 12.5 adjusted passing yards per attempt ranked fourth. He did this against an above-average schedule in the SEC.

Burrow’s forecast takes a small hit from playing alongside a very high amount of draftable talent, highlighted by likely first-round picks Justin Jefferson (this year) and Ja’Marr Chase (next year). But the experience variable is the main reason Burrow’s QBASE projection is not higher. The system still identifies the risk that comes with drafting a quarterback with only two years of starting experience. Nonetheless, Burrow has the second-highest projection ever for a quarterback with less than three years of starting experience.

Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama Crimson Tide

Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 7

Mean projection in Years 3-5: 653 DYAR

Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 46%

Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 27%

Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 19%

Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 8%

As a sophomore, Tagovailoa had 12.8 adjusted passing yards per attempt, the third-highest number ever. As a junior, Tagovailoa had 13.4 adjusted passing yards per attempt before he injured his hip. That would be the highest number ever if Tagovailoa had not missed time and failed to qualify for College Football Reference’s historical rankings. So the elements of QBASE based on past performance like Tagovailoa an awful lot.

Three different Alabama teammates are forecast to be top-20 picks in the upcoming draft: tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. and wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III. Two more of Tagovailoa’s offensive teammates are likely to be top-10 picks in next year’s draft: tackle Alex Leatherwood and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle. Receiver DeVonta Smith and guard Deonte Brown are also likely to be drafted in 2021. As a result, the projected draft value for Tagovailoa’s teammates is over 60% higher than the previous quarterback who played with the most draftable talent, Danny Wuerffel in 1997.

(Burrow is also in the top five for teammate value, along with Johnny Manziel and Matt Leinart.)

Tagovailoa’s schedule also wasn’t as hard as you might expect for the SEC; due to his injury, he missed Auburn (fifth in SP+ defense) and the bowl game with Michigan (11th).

These elements drop Tagovailoa only a little bit, however. So he still has one of the all-time best QBASE projections for a quarterback with only two years of starting experience.

Jordan Love, Utah State Aggies

Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 22

Mean projection in Years 3-5: 57 DYAR

Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 64%

Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 23%

Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 10%

Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 2%

Scouts are high on Love’s arm talent and smooth release, but his final year of college was quite unimpressive. Thanks in part to 17 interceptions with only 20 touchdowns, his already mediocre 7.2 yards per attempt number becomes 6.4 adjusted yards per attempt. Over the past decade, the only top-100 pick with a lower adjusted yards per attempt in his final college season was C.J. Beathard. Love had this poor performance against the easiest schedule of pass defenses faced by any of this year’s top quarterback prospects.

But there’s an asterisk here, which is that Love’s performance declined dramatically between his sophomore and junior seasons. In 2018, Love had a far more impressive 9.4 adjusted yards per attempt, with 32 touchdowns and six interceptions. If Love had come out a year ago, he would have had a higher projection (420 DYAR). Teams considering Love in this year’s draft need to watch two years’ worth of film and figure out what changed for him in 2019.

Justin Herbert, Oregon Ducks

Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 23

Mean projection in Years 3-5: 689 DYAR

Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 43%

Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 28%

Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 19%

Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 11%

Herbert has started for two full seasons and two partial seasons at Oregon, so we counted him with three seasons for the purposes of QBASE. That gives him the second-best projection this year, ahead of Tagovailoa but still behind Burrow. Where Herbert takes a bit of a hit is that Oregon was only 36th in FBS in passing SP+ this season.

Jake Fromm, Georgia Bulldogs

Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 57

Mean projection in Years 3-5: 439 DYAR

Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 51%

Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 28%

Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 15%

Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 7%

Fromm gets a boost in QBASE from three years of starting experience. Both his 8.1 adjusted yards per attempt and 61% completion rate last season are below the mean for top-100 picks over the past 20 years, but he played the hardest schedule among this year’s top quarterback prospects. And like Love, Fromm declined in his final season, as he had a 67% completion rate and 10.1 adjusted yards per attempt in 2018. Unlike Love, Fromm’s QBASE projection would have been lower had he come out a year ago with less experience (208 DYAR).

Jacob Eason, Washington Huskies

Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 60

Mean projection in Years 3-5: -98 DYAR

Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 68%

Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 21%

Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 9%

Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 2%

Eason’s 2019 season stats were close to the mean for top-100 quarterback prospects, but he put up those numbers against an easier-than-average schedule. Combine that with a lower expected draft position (end of the second round) and only two years of starting experience, and Eason does poorly in our QBASE projections.

Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma Sooners

Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 98

Mean projection in Years 3-5: 410 DYAR

Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 51%

Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 25%

Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 16%

Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 7%

The QBASE system likes Hurts even though he’s projected to be a late third- or early fourth-round pick. He has three years of starting experience and had awesome statistics at Oklahoma in his senior season: 70% completion rate and 12.2 adjusted yards per attempt. That latter number is the sixth-highest qualifying AYPA number in FBS history. But when you look at the five players ahead of him, you sense the biggest question about Hurts. Those players include Baker Mayfield twice and Kyler Murray. Four of the top six APYA seasons ever come from Lincoln Riley’s Oklahoma offense. How much of Hurts’ performance is Hurts, and how much is the offense, especially considering the big jump in Hurts’ stats from his two starting seasons at Alabama to last season at Oklahoma?

Anthony Gordon, Washington State Cougars

Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 116

Mean projection in Years 3-5: -234 DYAR

Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 72%

Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 20%

Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 7%

Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 1%

It’s hard to put too much faith in Gordon considering that his only season as a starter came as a redshirt senior. Even Gordon’s good-looking stats aren’t as impressive as they might seem at first glance. He was second in FBS with 5,579 passing yards and fourth with 48 touchdowns, but those stats were partially the product of ranking first in pass attempts in Mike Leach’s pass-friendly Washington State offense. Gordon was also helped by an easier schedule in the offense-friendly Pac-12. His 8.4 adjusted passing yards per attempt ranked only sixth in the conference.

– – –

Chris Trapasso of CBSSports.com has four top prospects who he thinks are Bustable, surprisingly including RB D’ANDRE SWIFT:

I’m not labeling any of the below prospects as absolutely guaranteed to bust, they’re just the most risky propositions who could still land somewhere on Day 1 or Day 2. In my estimation, they’ll have a difficult time living up to their draft positions.

Derrick Brown, DL, Auburn

Why: Lack of pass-rushing moves; average-at-best athlete for the position

Brown has looked like an NFL player since his sophomore season at Auburn, and he probably would’ve been, at worst, a second-round pick had he declared for the 2019 NFL Draft.

Upon his return to Auburn for his senior campaign, Brown proved to be the most naturally powerful defensive tackle in college football and the finest, most reliable run defender thanks to a gigantic tackling radius and the strength and awareness needed to shed blockers and find the football in tight quarters. Running at Brown is simply a bad idea.

However, he only took a marginal step forward as a pass rusher. Sure, Brown bull-rushed his way into the backfield on many pass plays, but beyond that he didn’t consistently demonstrate a detailed pass-rushing plan in those situations. I do believe Brown is one of the rare prospects in the trenches who is already “NFL strong,” but to be a productive pass-play disruptor in the NFL, defenders must have pass-rushing counters. Brown doesn’t routinely use those.

Then, add in the fact that Brown had a rather pedestrian combine performance, and there’s enough evidence to reasonably suggest he will have a very difficult time emerging as a pass-rushing force in the NFL. Now, for as much as the league has become pass happy, we aren’t seeing throws 100% of the time. Brown will have value. Instantly. But gone are the days when a run-stopping stud at the defensive tackle spot equated to an awesome first-round pick. He has the size, length, experience against top competition, and strength to be a good pro for 10-plus seasons. I just don’t believe the team that picks Brown will ultimately get the right amount of value for him in today’s NFL because he’s unlikely to be a high-end pass rusher in the pros.

Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma

Why: Inexperience in coverage

Murray has top-15 caliber athleticism at 6-foot-2 and 241 pounds with 4.52 speed. Everything about him from a physical profile gets a giant, bold check mark.

As for production, Murray is a stud too. After 68 tackles as a freshman, he registered 155 tackles as a sophomore with 12.5 tackles for loss before 102 tackles and 17 tackles for loss in 2019 for the Sooners.

If this was 2010, Murray would probably be viewed as highly (if not more so) than Isaiah Simmons. Seriously. But in today’s NFL, linebackers must be able to cover. And it’s not that I know Murray can’t do it, I just didn’t see him do it at Oklahoma. Like ever. Second- or third-rounders almost always have incomplete elements to their skill sets. With first-round picks, you want as few of those as possible. Murray being green in coverage instantly raises a red flag for him as a probable first-round linebacker.

He has six pass breakups over the past two seasons and did not record an interception during his time at Oklahoma. Beyond the elementary statistics, Murray almost never was told to turn and sink in zone coverage. Blitzing or spying the quarterback represented his main duties on pass plays. And he is going to have to turn and run in the NFL as a rookie. All that equates to why I’m sticking a buyer-beware label on Murray in Round 1.

However, Murray’s candidacy as a first-round pick deserves a team-specific caveat. If he were to land with the Baltimore Ravens, he’d be in a unique situation that’d likely accentuate his talents (athleticism, blitzing, and QB-spying) while masking his coverage rawness. According to Sports Info Solutions, the Ravens sent five rushers on 34% of their snaps in 2019, the highest rate in football, and blitzed with two extra rushers 11% of the time, the second-highest figure in the NFL. Murray, utilized as a blitz-specialist on passing plays, would likely lead to Baltimore having legitimate justification for taking him in the first round. The Steelers (33%) and the Buccaneers (29%) were second and third respectively in five-man blitz rate last season but both took a linebacker in Round 1 in 2019.

Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU

Why: Schemed production in 2019

Jefferson exploded onto the scene — like many LSU offensive players — in 2019 with 1,540 yards and 18 touchdowns. But Jefferson is the quintessential example of why market share is a better measure of production than basic figures. He accounted for just 25.4% of the Tigers’ passing offense, a rate that falls short of the 30% threshold recent history has shown correlates to No. 1 receiver type success at the NFL level.

And, sure, he shared a wideout room with Biletnikoff Award winner Ja’Marr Chase, which must be considered. But so should how Jefferson accumulated his 1,540 receiving yards. His film shows an insane amount of his yardage coming on a deep, uncovered over route against zone from the slot or a screen or quick in-breaker on a RPO.

In short, the combination of brilliant offensive coordinator Joe Brady and the immaculate season from Joe Burrow had much to do with Jefferson’s high-volume production than what the pass catcher did individually.

And much has been made about Jefferson’s production in contested-catch scenarios last season. Per Pro Football Focus, he converted 12 of 13 contested-catch opportunities to lead all wide receivers in this draft class with a 92.3% rate in that vital category. But in tracking those instances on film, I noticed many of the plays possibly deemed contested-catch situation wins for Jefferson were simply more about pinpoint ball placement from Burrow and cornerbacks not finding the football as opposed to a high-point rebound over a defender.

At 6-foot-1 and 202 pounds with 4.43 speed, good yards-after-the-catch skill and some wiggle at the line, Jefferson is far from a bad prospect. I just believe he’ll be over-drafted if he goes in Round 1 because he’s unlikely to land in such a perfect environment in the NFL and was never truly the No. 1 target at LSU. More specifically, despite his wiggle he’s typically re-routed easily by press coverage, doesn’t play to his speed as a route-runner and is unlikely to rock in the contested-catch situations like he did in 2019 because the footballs won’t repeatedly fall into his chest in the NFL.

D’Andre Swift, RB, Georgia

Why: Ran behind loaded Georgia line; lack of a trump card as a runner

Swift was the No. 4 running back recruit in the country in the class of 2017 and looked the part instantly at Georgia, averaging 7.6 yards per carry on 81 totes as a true freshman. After Nick Chubb and Sony Michel left for the NFL, Swift assumed feature-back duties and had back-to-back seasons averaging over 6.0 yards per rush while getting 163 and 196 carries respectively. At a thick 5-foot-8 and 212 pounds, he ran 4.48 at the combine. Everything checks out then right?

Quantitatively, yes, probably.

But Swift’s film shows a back with a good, not great all-around skill set who found himself running behind a wonderfully cohesive and powerful offensive line. His left tackle Andrew Thomas is going in Round 1. Right tackle Isaiah Wilson is a likely Day 2 pick. Left guard Solomon Kindley will get drafted. And all three of them are outstanding run blockers who routinely paved massive lanes for Swift in the SEC. That was a major luxury for Swift. Individually, he isn’t incredibly elusive and doesn’t play with high-end contact balance to ward off tackle attempts to continue forward.

Per the Pro Football Focus Draft Guide, Swift forced 40 missed tackles in 2019, which ranked as the 40th-most among draft-eligible running backs. He only had 18 carries of 15-plus yards, the 19th-most among that group. I don’t think he plays to 4.48 on the field. And, lastly, Swift’s 2018 film was better 2019. He displayed more devastating cutting skills and acceleration. That gave me a concerned feeling about him living up to a potentially Round 1 draft status in the NFL.

Swift is a stellar receiver, having caught 73 passes during his three-year stay in Athens, and that skill is a big positive on his draft profile. But unless he finds himself running behind a truly dominant line like he had at Georgia, I don’t think Swift will ultimately stack up with the other top backs in this class.

– – –

Chad Reuter has a four-round Mock Draft at NFL.com.  His big wrinkle is Ron Rivera and the Redskins one-and-done with QB DWAYNE HASKINS.  Here is Round 1:

1 – CINCINNATI

Joe Burrow – QB

School: LSU | Year: Senior (RS)

Burrow’s confidence and the presumed return of A.J. Green via the franchise tag could give the Bengals some hope for the first time in a while.

2 – WASHINGTON

Tua Tagovailoa – QB

School: Alabama | Year: Junior

Head coach Ron Rivera has to appreciate not only Tua’s on-field prowess, but his character and leadership skills. Landing a special talent is great, but a franchise-attitude-changing player could define this team for a decade. I know Rivera says Dwayne Haskins is his starter, but the way I see it, the decision to swap a fifth-round pick for Kyle Allen portends a trade of Haskins once the team selects Tua.

3 – DETROIT

Chase Young – Edge

School: Ohio State | Year: Junior

I wonder how many trade calls the Lions have already taken for this pick? Young’s talent is just too much to pass by unless there’s a trade offer that Detroit absolutely cannot ignore.

4 – MIAMI

Justin Herbert – QB

School: Oregon | Year: Senior

PROJECTED TRADE WITH GIANTS. Herbert has the arm, athleticism and even-keel attitude to succeed in the NFL. The Dolphins stockpiled picks in order to make this sort of trade, preventing the Chargers, Jaguars or others from moving ahead of them by offering the No. 5 overall pick, an early second-round pick this year and a second-rounder next year.

5 – NY GIANTS

Tristan Wirfs – OT

School: Iowa | Year: Junior

PROJECTED TRADE WITH DOLPHINS. Now that they’ve applied the franchise tag to Leonard Williams, the Giants need to focus on the offensive line with this pick. Wirfs’ athleticism and toughness will endear him to general manager Dave Gettleman.

6 – LA CHARGERS

Mekhi Becton – OT

School: Louisville | Year: Junior

The trade of Russell Okung to Carolina gives the Chargers room for a new starting left tackle.

7 – CAROLINA

Jeff Okudah – CB

School: Ohio State | Year: Junior

The Panthers select the draft’s top cornerback to replace James Bradberry, who departed in free agency.

8 – DENVER

Henry Ruggs III – WR

School: Alabama | Year: Junior

PROJECTED TRADE WITH CARDINALS. General manager John Elway must give Drew Lock as many weapons as possible. Swapping Pick No. 15 and a couple of Day 2 picks this year to grab their top wideout target (Ruggs, CeeDee Lamb or Jerry Jeudy all have a case to be the first WR drafted, but we’ll go with Ruggs here) gives them their best shot to become a legitimate contender in the AFC.

9 – JACKSONVILLE

Javon Kinlaw – DT

School: South Carolina | Year: Senior

Jacksonville signed Rodney Gunter, but that deal did not break the bank. Kinlaw or Auburn DT Derrick Brown would be a great add to a defense that finished among the league’s worst against the run last season.

10 – CLEVELAND

Andrew Thomas – OT

School: Georgia | Year: Junior

Signing Jack Conklin to stabilize the right side of the line was huge. Acquiring Thomas to man the left side will bring a smile to Baker Mayfield’s face.

11 – ATLANTA

Isaiah Simmons – S/LB

School: Clemson | Year: Junior (RS)

PROJECTED TRADE WITH JETS. Following up the signing of veteran Dante Fowler with the selection of Simmons will help the Falcons move on from free-agent departures Vic Beasley and De’Vondre Campbell.

12 – LAS VEGAS

CeeDee Lamb – WR

School: Oklahoma | Year: Junior

Lamb is the best all-around receiver in the draft, and Denver’s move up to grab Ruggs makes the choice much easier for the Raiders.

13 – SAN FRANCISCO (from Indianapolis)

Jerry Jeudy – WR

School: Alabama | Year: Junior

The 49ers’ Super Bowl showing made it very clear that they need to upgrade their receiving corps. Jeudy becomes what Emmanuel Sanders was for the team before moving on to the Saints this offseason.

14 – TAMPA BAY

Derrick Brown – DT

School: Auburn | Year: Senior

The Bucs can find a right tackle later in the draft — in fact, they might draft two outside linemen this year. Getting a stud like Brown with the 14th pick is too rich to pass up, even with Ndamukong Suh returning to the Bucs on a one-year deal.

15 – ARIZONA

Jedrick Wills – OT

School: Alabama | Year: Junior

PROJECTED TRADE WITH BRONCOS. After acquiring DeAndre Hopkins, the Cards are in position to move down (getting two third-round picks in the trade) and still meet their top need. Wills steps in at right tackle to join D.J. Humphries in protecting Kyler Murray.

16 – NY JETS

K’Lavon Chaisson – Edge

School: LSU | Year: Sophomore (RS)

PROJECTED TRADE WITH FALCONS. The Jets move down and still get the pass rusher they desperately need. Chaisson is still learning the game, but he has the bend and quickness to be an effective edge player. New York gains third- and fifth-round picks this year in the deal.

17 – DALLAS

C.J. Henderson – CB

School: Florida | Year: Junior

The Cowboys just re-signed Anthony Brown, but they still need depth at the cornerback spot. Both Chidobe Awuzie and Jourdan Lewis are free agents after next season, as well.

18 – MIAMI (from Pittsburgh)

Austin Jackson – OT

School: USC | Year: Junior

Jackson should continue to grow into a very good pass protector early in his NFL career.

19 – LAS VEGAS (from Chicago)

Kenneth Murray – LB

School: Oklahoma | Year: Junior

Above everything else, I think GM Mike Mayock proved in his first draft with the Raiders that he’ll take good football players with good character — and Murray fits the bill. Even though the Raiders just added Nick Kwiatkoski and Cory Littleton in free agency, they’ll find room for Murray at the second level of their defense.

20 – BALTIMORE (from LA Rams thru Jacksonville)

Patrick Queen – CB

School: LSU | Year: Junior

PROJECTED TRADE WITH JAGUARS. Last year, the Steelers moved up to get their man in the middle (Devin Bush). This year, their rival moves up to get Queen before the Patriots can draft him, giving Jacksonville a third-round compensatory pick and their fourth-round selection.

21 – PHILADELPHIA

Justin Jefferson – WR

School: LSU | Year: Junior

Jefferson’s playmaking skills will make the Eagles’ passing attack more potent — especially with a healthy Carson Wentz.

22 – MINNESOTA (from Buffalo)

Denzel Mims – WR

School: Baylor | Year: Senior (RS)

Trading Stefon Diggs makes finding a deep threat at receiver a high priority for Minnesota; the athletic Mims will make plays on the outside for Kirk Cousins.

23 – LA CHARGERS

Jordan Love – QB

School: Utah State | Year: Junior

PROJECTED TRADE WITH PATRIOTS. Tyrod Taylor will start for the Chargers in 2020 — unless Love upstages him. The Patriots — always interested in acquiring additional assets — receive a second-round selection in this draft and the next.

24 – CAROLINA

James Lynch – DE

School: Baylor | Year: Junior

PROJECTED TRADE WITH SAINTS. If new Panthers Coach Matt Rhule wants his former player to join him in Charlotte, he’ll need to move up to get him. Rhule will have to trade away a third- and a fifth-round pick — the one they just picked up for quarterback Kyle Allen — to move up 14 spots.

25 – MINNESOTA

Yetur Gross-Matos – Edge

School: Penn State | Year: Junior

With Everson Griffen voiding his contract, the Vikings now have a hole on defense that Gross-Matos could fill.

26 – MIAMI (from Houston)

Jonathan Taylor – RB

School: Wisconsin | Year: Junior

Taylor had a great NFL Scouting Combine, proving his first-round value with a sub-4.4 40-yard dash at 226 pounds and showing his ability as a receiver.

27 – SEATTLE

Joshua Jones – OT

School: Houston | Year: Senior (RS)

Even though Russell Wilson is a playmaker on the move, he and his running back friends would like to see some resources spent on the offensive line. Jones’ nastiness and length give him a shot to excel at either tackle spot.

28 – JACKSONVILLE

Cole Kmet – TE

School: Notre Dame | Year: Junior

PROJECTED TRADE WITH RAVENS. Jacksonville is lacking in their tight end depth chart, even after signing oft-injured veteran Tyler Eifert. Moving down the board a bit to pick the top prospect at the position makes sense.

29 – TENNESSEE

Ross Blacklock – DT

School: TCU | Year: Junior (RS)

Tennessee could use help at the five-technique, the perfect spot for Blacklock’s talents.

30 – GREEN BAY

Tee Higgins – WR

School: Clemson | Year: Junior

Higgins’ poor workout may push him down boards a bit — remember that guys like Michael Thomas and DeAndre Hopkins were available in the late first or early second rounds. The Packers may see him as a similar bargain. Signing Devin Funchess should not deter Green Bay from picking up the talented Higgins at this point on Day 1.

31 – SAN FRANCISCO

A.J. Terrell – CB

School: Clemson | Year: Junior

Forget about Terrell and Clemson’s night against LSU in the title game — I’m sure he already has. The 49ers looked at the rest of his tape, as well as his combine workout, and saw a future starter.

32 – KANSAS CITY

Terrell Burgess – CB

School: Utah | Year: Senior

Burgess is considered a safety by many, but I think he could play in the slot and even outside if given the chance. The Chiefs could use help at both spots.