The Daily Briefing Friday, March 28, 2025

By admin | April 4, 2025

AROUND THE NFL

The NFL continues to talk up flag football and the 2028 Olympics.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com: The NFL is heavily promoting flag football, which becomes an Olympic sport in Los Angeles in 2028. But the league thinks the LA Games will be just the beginning.NFL Executive Vice President of Football Operations Troy Vincent said the league is already making plans for flag football’s involvement in the 2032 Summer Olympics in Brisbane, Australia, and that the NFL thinks flag football as an Olympic sport will be key to making the NFL a truly global brand.“We know that LA ’28 is a milestone, but we’re also looking at Brisbane,” Vincent said. “And the talk is, how do you become a global property? Today we’re not a global property. We’re playing games across the globe, but when children, young men and women, are playing and coaching in Asia, South Africa, Ghana, you really become a global property. So I think the Olympics is one of those places where our brand, American football, is truly on a global stage, competing against the world. Flag football is real. That movement is real.”The NFL is considering launching men’s and women’s professional flag football leagues that would, the NFL hopes, attract players from around the globe. The Olympics may prove to be a showcase for players across the world who are playing football professionally, either in the NFL itself, or in an NFL-owned flag football league that aids in the NFL’s global expansion efforts. We hate to bet against the NFL on anything, but who is going to give a US team with NFL players anything like a competitive game?  At least in 2028.  
AFC SOUTH
TENNESSEEThe Titans are ditching the Oilers derrick logo on their throwback uniforms, even as they make the Houston Oiler color scheme more their own.  Thusly, we have changed the color of “Tennessee” above.  John Breech of CBSSports.com: After wearing them for two seasons, the Tennessee Titans will be keeping their “Houston Oilers” throwbacks in the closet for the 2025 season.The team announced several big uniform changes on Thursday, and as part of that announcement the Titans revealed that they won’t be wearing their iconic, but controversial, throwbacks for the upcoming season. The Oilers throwback uniforms are definitely popular with fans, but they have come with some controversy. When the Oilers left Houston to move to Tennessee following the 1996 season, a lot of people felt that the team’s name and colors should have stayed in Texas, but they didn’t.The Titans got to keep the rights to the Oilers name and they unveiled a throwback in 2023 that they actually wore against Houston, a game that the Texans won (The Titans are 1-2 in their Oilers throwbacks, and ironically, both losses have come against Houston). In April 2024, Hannah McNair, the wife of Texans owner Cal McNair, didn’t hide her feelings about the Oilers jerseys: She said they should have stayed in Houston.“Houston takes a lot of pride in [the uniforms], and you know, Tennessee doesn’t care as much,” McNair said. “It’s not as meaningful to their fans.”One thing that Titans fans do seem to love is the baby blue color on the Oilers jerseys that the Titans have also embraced. The color is so popular that Tennessee will be making “Titans blue” its primary home jersey color for the 2025 season.Titans President and CEO Burke Nihill explained why the team decided to make the switch from Navy blue to “Titans blue.”“We’re talking to fans and we’re listening, and there’s a clear appetite to have the Titans, their team, represented on the field in this noticeable color that has been with this team from 1960 in Houston, into Memphis, at Vanderbilt and as we’ve played at Nissan Stadium,” Nihill told the team’s official website. “We’re going to emphasize that this year and change to Titans blue as the primary color. … Our fans, our players, they love it.”Nihill said the plan is for the team to wear their Titans blue jersey for every home game in 2025. So what is the difference, if any, between the Columbia Blue of the Oilers and the current Titans Blue?  Per FootballRealGM.com there is no difference: The Tennessee Titans will switch from navy to baby blue as the primary jersey color for home uniforms this season. “Titans blue” is known by some as the Oilers’ “baby blue,” which technically is “Columbia blue.” Columbia Blue actually harkens to the color worn by the teams at Columbia University. 
THIS AND THAT 
2025 WIN TOTALSESPNBet has its win totals out for you to go over and under on. Win totals for the upcoming NFL season have been posted at ESPN Bet.At 11.5 wins, the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles are tied with the Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs for the highest number on the board.Nine teams have an over/under of 10.5 victories or more, which would be the most teams with a win total greater than 10 in a season since the league expanded to 32 teams in 2002. Eight teams had an over/under of 10.5 or higher last season, and nine teams reached at least 11 wins. Six others reached 10 wins.On the other end of the spectrum is the Cleveland Browns, who have the lowest win total projection at 4.5. Five teams have an over/under of 5.5.Here is each team’s projected win total at ESPN Bet, with relevant notes from ESPN Stats and Information, some data from SportsOddsHistory.com, as well as Mike Clay’s forecast from his model. (Clay’s complete 2025 season projections can be found here.)Baltimore Ravens (11.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 11.3 (NFL rank: 3)2024 record: 12-5Super Bowl winner: +650This is Baltimore’s sixth straight season with a win total in double digits.The Ravens have gone over their win total in back-to-back seasons after going under in the previous three.The Ravens have the third-best odds to win the Super Bowl at +650.Buffalo Bills (11.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 11.7 (NFL rank: 2)2024 record: 13-4Super Bowl winner: 7-1The Bills have won 11+ games in five straight seasons.Since Sean McDermott became the Bills’ head coach in 2017, Buffalos has gone over its win total in all eight seasons, the longest active streak of any team.Josh Allen has won 10+ games in every season as a full-time starter.Kansas City Chiefs (11.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 10.4 (NFL rank: T-4)2024 record: 15-2Super Bowl winner: 6-1This is the seventh consecutive season that Kansas City has a win total of at least 10, the most of any team over that span.In 12 seasons under Andy Reid, Kansas City has won 10+ games 11 times.The Chiefs have won at least 12 games in six of the seven seasons with Patrick Mahomes as the starting QB.Philadelphia Eagles (11.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 10.4 (NFL rank: T-4)2024 record: 14-3Super Bowl winner: 6-1The Eagles won 14 regular-season games to hot the over on their total on their way to a Super Bowl win.Before last season, Philadelphia had gone under the total in seven of its last eight seasons when it had a win total of 10+.The Eagles have 11+ wins in three straight seasons, their longest such stretch since a five-season streak from 2000-04.Cincinnati Bengals (10.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 8.6 (NFL rank: 17)2024 record: 9-8Super Bowl winner: 16-1The Bengals have a double-digit win total for the third straight season (hadn’t had a win total of 10+ since 1989).The Bengals finished 9-8 last season, missing the playoffs and going under their total.Cincinnati is seeking its fifth straight winning season, which would tie the franchise record set from 2011-15.Detroit Lions (10.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 11.9 (NFL rank: 1)2024 record: 15-2Super Bowl winner: +850The Lions have gone over their win total in three consecutive seasons, the first time they have done so since 1993-95.Before going 15-2 in 2024, the Lions’ best record was 12-4, achieved in 1991.This is the Lions’ second straight season with a win total of 10.5, their highest win total over the last 35 seasons.Los Angeles Chargers (10.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 8.5 (NFL rank: 18)2024 record: 11-6Super Bowl winner: 22-1After going 5-12 in 2023, the Chargers went 11-6 last season with Jim Harbaugh at the helm, beating their win total projection of 8.5.The Chargers won their final three games of the season to earn a postseason berth.The Chargers have won 10 or more games in two of the last three seasons but only three times over the last 15 years.Los Angeles Rams (10.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 9.1 (NFL rank: T-10)2024 record: 10-7Super Bowl winner: 20-1The Rams have gone over their win total in six of eight seasons under head coach Sean McVay.Despite a -19 point differential, the Rams won 10 games last season to hit the over on their 8.5-win projection.The Rams had 13 straight seasons of eight or fewer wins before McVay took over in 2017.San Francisco 49ers (10.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 8.7 (NFL rank: 16)2024 record: 6-11Super Bowl winner: 13-1This is San Francisco’s sixth straight season with a win total in double digits (10.5, 10.5, 10, 11, 11.5).The 49ers won only six game last season after posting 12+ wins the previous two seasons.San Francisco went 5-12 against the spread in 2024 and was 10-7 on over/unders.Washington Commanders (10.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 8.2 (NFL rank: 21)2024 record: 12-5Super Bowl winner: 16-1The Commanders had a projected win total of 6.5 last season, a number they cleared in Week 9.Washington’s last winning season before last year’s 12-5 campaign came in 2015.The Commanders were 150-1 to win the Super Bowl last year and came within one win of reaching the big game.Denver Broncos (9.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 9.7 (NFL rank: 6)2024 record: 10-7Super Bowl winner: 40-1Denver had gone under its win total for four straight seasons before a 10-7 campaign last year on a 5.5-win projection.Last season’s 10-win campaign was the Broncos’ first season with double-digit victories since 2015 (12-4).The Broncos were 12-5 against the spread last season and 8-0 straight up as a favorite.Green Bay Packers (9.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 9.1 (NFL rank: T-10)2024 record: 11-6Super Bowl winner: 18-1Green Bay has gone over its win total five of the last six seasons. The only under cam in 2022 when they had nine wins and projected total of 11.The Packers have put together six straight winning seasons.At 11-6, the Packers were one of three NFC North teams to reach the playoffs last season.Houston Texans (9.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 9.4 (NFL rank: 9)2024 record: 10-7Super Bowl winner: 25-1The Texans are 14-6-3 on season-long win totals in franchise history but have only gone over twice in the last five seasons, including last season.Houston has gone 10-7 each of the last two seasons, winning the AFC South both times.The Texans have six double digit-win seasons in franchise history (since 2002). Four have come in the last seven years.Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 9.6 (NFL rank: 7)2024 record: 10-7Super Bowl winner: 30-1Tampa Bay won 10 games last season and has gone over its win total in five of the last six seasons.The Buccaneers have put together back-to-back winning seasons for the second time in the last 16 seasons (also accomplished in 2020-21 with Tom Brady).The Bucs’ total projection has increased from 7.5 wins in 2024 to 9.5 this season.Arizona Cardinals (8.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 8.9 (NFL rank: 12)2024 record: 8-9Super Bowl winner: 50-1Arizona has had just one winning season since winning 13 games in 2015 (went 11-6 in 2021).The Cardinals went 8-9 last season to beat their 6.5-win projection, snapping a two-year skid of unders.The Cardinals doubled their win total from 2023 last season (they also went 4-13 in 2022).Chicago Bears (8.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 8.4 (NFL rank: T-19)2024 record: 5-12Super Bowl winner: 35-1This is Chicago’s second straight year with a win total projection of 8.5, its highest since 2019 (9).Chicago went under its win total last season, finishing 5-12, and and hasn’t reached 9+ wins in a season since 2018 (12-4).The Bears’ last over came in 2018, with five unders and one push since then.Dallas Cowboys (8.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 7.3 (NFL rank: 25)2024 record: 7-10Super Bowl winner: 50-1Dallas had gone over its win total in three straight three seasons (12-5 each season) before finishing 7-10 in 2024.This would be the 22nd consecutive season that Dallas has a win total of at least 8, the longest streak by any team this century.The Cowboys opened last season 16-1 to win the Super Bowl. They are 50-1 this season.Miami Dolphins (8.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 9.5 (NFL rank: 8)2024 record: 8-9Super Bowl winner: 50-1Miami went 8-9 last season, its first time going under its win total since 2017 (four overs and two pushes previously).The Dolphins have cleared 8.5 wins in four of the last five seasons.The Dolphins were 7-10 against the spread last season, their first losing mark ATS since 2017.Minnesota Vikings (8.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 8.8 (NFL rank: T-13)2024 record: 14-3Super Bowl winner: 35-1The Vikings won 14 games last season, blowing by their 6.5-win projection.The Vikings have finished .500 or better in seven of the last 10 seasons.Minnesota had a +100 point differential last season but will have a new QB under center in 2025.Pittsburgh Steelers (8.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 7.5 (NFL rank: 23)2024 record: 10-7Super Bowl winner: 50-1Pittsburgh went 10-7 last season and has finished .500 or better in 21 straight seasons, matching the longest streak in league history (Dallas, 21 straight from 1965-85).The Steelers have gone over their win total in five straight seasons and nine of the last 11.Pittsburgh has posted at least nine victories in nine of the last 11 seasons, which includes seven double digit-win seasons.Seattle Seahawks (8.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 8.8 (NFL rank: T-13)2024 record: 10-7Super Bowl winner: 60-1Seattle has won 8+ games in 12 of the last 13 seasons and is 5-1-1 on win totals over the last seven seasons.The Seahawks added Sam Darnold, who put up a career year with the Vikings last season while winning 14 games.The Seahawks managed 10 wins last season but were just 6-10-1 against the spread.New England Patriots (7.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 8.8 (NFL rank: T-13)2024 record: 4-13Super Bowl winner: 75-1The Patriots are coming off back-to-back 4-win seasons, going under their projection both times.New England’s projection has increased by three wins over last season’s number (4.5).The Patriots have finished above .500 just once in the last five years (10-7 in 2021). The Patriots had 19 straight winning seasons from 2001-19, including 18 with double-digit wins.Atlanta Falcons (7.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 6.7 (NFL rank: 27)2024 record: 8-9Super Bowl winner: 60-1The Falcons have gone under their win total in six of the last seven seasons, covering only in 2022 with seven wins on a projected 4.5 total.Atlanta’s last winning season came in 2017 (10-7).Michael Penix Jr. will enter his first full season as the starter after taking over for Kirk Cousins last season.Carolina Panthers (6.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 6.5 (NFL rank: T-29)2024 record: 5-12Super Bowl winner: 100-1Despite a 5-12 record last season, the Panthers hit the over on their total wins projection (4.5).Carolina has gone under its win total in five of the last seven seasons (won 7 on a 6.5 total in 2022).The Panthers haven’t finished above .500 since 2017 (11-5).Indianapolis Colts (6.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 8.4 (NFL rank: T-19)2024 record: 8-9Super Bowl winner: 100-1The Colts finished 8-9 last season, falling just short of their win total projection of 8.5.The Colts have not gone over their win total in consecutive seasons since 2012-14 (three straight).The Colts have reached at least seven wins in four of the last five seasons.Jacksonville Jaguars (6.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 7.4 (NFL rank: 24)2024 record: 4-13Super Bowl winner: 150-1Jacksonville has gone under its win total in six of the last seven seasons, the lone over coming in 2022 when the Jaguars won nine on a 6.5 total.The Jaguars had a win projection of 8.5 last season but managed only four wins.Over the last 17 seasons, the Jaguars have had only three winning campaigns and one season of 10+ wins.Las Vegas Raiders (5.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 6.6 (NFL rank: 28)2024 record: 4-13Super Bowl winner: 100-1The Raiders’ 5.5-win projection is their lowest since 2019 (6, went over).The Raiders have only two winning seasons since 2002 (10-7 in 2021 and 12-4 in 2016).The Raiders went 4-13 last season but finished 8-9 against the spread.New Orleans Saints (5.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 7.6 (NFL rank: 22)2024 record: 5-12Super Bowl winner: 100-1This is the second straight sub-.500 win total for New Orleans (7 wins, 1 loss, 1 push since 2016).The Saints have gone under their win total in three straight seasons after going 4-0-1 in the previous five.The Saints have finished over .500 in six of the last eight seasons but just one of the last three.New York Giants (5.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 6.5 (NFL rank: T-29)2024 record: 3-14Super Bowl winner: 200-1The Giants have gone under their win total in seven of the last eight seasons, with the lone exception coming in 2022 when they made the divisional round. Their seven unders since 2017 are the most of any team.This is the Giants’ eighth straight season with a win total under .500. Their last projection over .500 came in 2017 when they went 3-13 on a 9-win total.The Giants have just one winning season over their last eight campaigns (9-7-1 in 2022).New York Jets (5.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 6.9 (NFL rank: 26)2024 record: 5-12Super Bowl winner: 150-1The Jets went into last season with a win total of 9.5 but finished just 5-12.The Jets have missed the playoffs in 14 consecutive seasons, the longest active playoff drought in the NFL, They have just one 10-win season over that span (10-6 in 2015).Justin Fields takes over at QB for the Jets, whose win total is set four games lower than it was last season.Tennessee Titans (5.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 5.6 (NFL rank: 31)2024 record: 3-14Super Bowl winner: 200-1The Titans have gone under their projected win total for three consecutive seasons.This is Tennessee’s lowest win total since 2016 (6; went over with a 9-7 record).The Titans have finished under .500 for three straight seasons. They had won at least nine games in each of the previous six seasons.Cleveland Browns (4.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 5 (NFL rank: 32)2024 record: 3-14Super Bowl winner: 100-1After putting together an 11-win season in 2023, the Browns won only three games last season (with a projected win total of 8.5).Only the Panthers (-193) had a worse point differential than the Browns (-177) last season, but they won two more games.The Browns have finished with a winning record twice since 2007 (11 wins in 2020 and 2023) and have one winless season during that stretch (2017). Some DB thoughts: Five teams in the two West Divisions are 10.5 or higher.  No team in the two South Divisions is higher than 9.5 wins. We were surprised to see the Vikings and Steelers both at 8.5.  We would pick the Vikings to win more games than the Steelers, even if Pittsburgh gets two games with Cleveland. So Tampa Bay and Houston are division champs at 9.5 wins, just 1 win better than NFC West and North bottom feeders Seattle, Arizona, Chicago and Minnesota at 8.5. The oddsmakers see the Patriots and Bears as most improved (both +3.5 wins from last year).  The Vikings won 14 games last year with Sam Darnold, then J.J. McCarthy gets them 8.5 (-5.5!). Total wins by divisions – NFC West 38, AFC West 37, NFC North 37, NFC East 36, AFC North 35, AFC East 33, NFC South 29, AFC South 28. By conference – AFC 133, NFC 140.  There are 272 total games so the bets tilt ever so slightly towards the over.   
CAM WARD’S SUPERPOWERTed Ngyuen of The Athletic makes a comparison to QB PATRICK MAHOMES as he evaluates QB CAM WARD: Though I have been wrong on many draft prospects, one of my best calls was ranking Patrick Mahomes QB1 ahead of Deshaun Watson heading into the 2017 NFL Draft. I’ve since rejected any comparisons of college prospects to Mahomes, and I’m not making one today, but I will say that Miami’s Cam Ward, the consensus QB1 in this year’s draft, shares one of Mahomes’ most important traits: A special awareness of everything happening on the football field.Mahomes has a sixth sense for finding space in the passing game against coverages that certain routes shouldn’t be open against and finding ways to squeak out enough yardage to get first downs on scrambles. Ward doesn’t have Mahomes’ all-world arm talent, and Mahomes has since combined that sixth sense with a mastery of how defenses have been trying to defend him over the years.But Ward’s awareness is just innate. We’ve all seen the amazing plays he can make outside of the pocket, connecting with receivers that many quarterbacks may not even see while on the run. However, out-of-structure plays can only take you so far in the NFL. What makes Ward a special prospect is how he applies his awareness and creativity to plays within the structure of the offense, within the pocket.From a clean pocket, on dropbacks not including scrambles, Ward’s expected points added per dropback ranked seventh nationally in 2024. The ability to scramble is a big part of Ward’s game, but he’s also productive just as a passer. There are things he needs to clean up, but there is a lot of evidence that he performs well playing within structure and there’s potential to be even better.Ward played 57 games throughout five seasons in college. That experience shows up with work at the line of scrimmage despite playing in his first season in Miami’s system in 2024. There are plays when the offense looks to the sideline for checks, but Ward sniffs out blitzes, adjusts protections and changes route concepts at the line scrimmage. If you want some analysis from Ngyuen of specific plays, see the whole article here Ward’s big plays outside of structure are spectacular, but his creativity from within the pocket is what could make him a special quarterback in the NFL. He has to be more willing to take easy, shorter completions rather than big-game hunt all the time, but it’s easier to get a quarterback to be more conservative than more aggressive. Also, how he looks for big plays is closer to the process of some of the best quarterbacks in the league rather than just recklessly chucking the ball deep.This is a weak quarterback class overall, but Ward is by far the best prospect and deserves to be picked first. Titans head coach Brian Callahan worked with Joe Burrow, who likes to play out of shotgun and brilliantly balances in-structure play and out-of-structure play. It’s hard to imagine the Titans not taking Ward No. 1.  
2025 DRAFT   Matt Miller of ESPN.com has a Mock Draft up with all seven here We have his first round below: ROUND 11. Tennessee TitansCam Ward, QB, MiamiEvery option is on the table for the Titans, but all signs point to them selecting a quarterback here. They didn’t add competition for starter Will Levis in free agency despite it being a clear-cut need. And while Abdul Carter and Travis Hunter are blue-chip prospects, it’d be hard for the Titans to justify not taking a quarterback with this pick.Ward’s arm talent, mobility and penchant for big plays would open up Brian Callahan’s offense. Ward led the FBS with 39 touchdown passes and added another four on the ground. His steady development in five college seasons, spanning from FCS Incarnate Word to Washington State to Miami, indicates coachability, and he has room to grow further. New Titans general manager Mike Borgonzi also needs to get more offensive playmakers and a top edge rusher after losing Harold Landry III. But drafting Ward would give Tennessee a foundation to build on.2. Cleveland BrownsAbdul Carter, Edge, Penn StateESPN’s Adam Schefter said on Wednesday’s “NFL Live” that he believed the Browns would select Carter if Ward is off the board. If Schefter says it, I trust it. The Browns need a quarterback even after acquiring Kenny Pickett in a trade, but they can’t afford to overdraft a player they are not 100% convinced on with this pick. Instead, the Browns could turn a strength into straight-up dominance by drafting my top player in this class and playing him opposite All-Pro Myles Garrett.Carter was a force in his first season as a true edge rusher, posting 12 sacks, 23.5 tackles for loss and 15 run stops in 16 starts. He’s a day one impact starter with the potential to get double-digit sacks immediately. And in a draft with genuine debate about the gap between QB2 Shedeur Sanders and the rest of the class, the Browns can afford to wait until pick No. 33 to see if a passer they like is available.3. New York GiantsShedeur Sanders, QB, ColoradoEven though they signed Russell Wilson on Tuesday and Jameis Winston last week, the Giants don’t have a long-term quarterback, and there’s pressure on general manager Joe Schoen and coach Brian Daboll to find that franchise signal-caller. Sanders is an accurate, tough pocket passer who improved the culture at both Jackson State and Colorado alongside his father and coach, Deion Sanders. Shedeur Sanders is poised, with great field vision and an ability to throw his guys open from the pocket.Also, signing Wilson could cause the Giants to win too many games in 2025 to have their pick of QBs in the 2026 draft. That makes it even more important for New York to get a QB with this pick now. Sanders could learn from Wilson and Winston for a year and get tutelage on how to adjust to the NFL.4. New England PatriotsTravis Hunter, CB/WR, ColoradoBecause of their free agency moves, the Patriots have an almost unlimited number of options with this pick. New England would be very lucky to have the Heisman Trophy winner fall to this spot. Hunter would be a day one starter at cornerback opposite Christian Gonzalez while working in 10-15 snaps per game in a revived receiving corps that recently added Stefon Diggs.Hunter broke up 10 passes, grabbed four interceptions and forced a fumble this past season, while also logging 96 catches for 1,258 yards and 15 touchdowns. At 6 feet and 188 pounds, he doesn’t have massive size, but his quickness is elite and his ball skills are legendary. It’s not unrealistic that Hunter could be Odell Beckham Jr. on offense and Denzel Ward on defense. New England’s coaching staff would have fun devising ways to get him involved.5. Jacksonville JaguarsMason Graham, DT, MichiganNew Jacksonville general manager James Gladstone has talked about building up the trenches, and he can start doing that with the best defensive tackle in the draft. Gladstone was with the Rams when they traded up to draft Braden Fiske in Round 2 last year and might see a similar player in Graham — but with more pass-rush upside.Graham doesn’t lose many reps and has the quickness to slice through blockers and dominate gaps. He had 7.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks and 26 pressures this past season despite not being asked to attack the quarterback often. His well-rounded approach and ability would make him a cornerstone of the Jaguars’ new defense.6. Las Vegas RaidersTetairoa McMillan, WR, ArizonaAshton Jeanty has been a popular pick here in mocks, but have you seen the Raiders’ wide receiver depth chart? Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly will want to run the ball, but they didn’t trade a third-round pick for quarterback Geno Smith to have him hand the ball off 35 times per game. The Raiders need receivers more than running backs, and new general manager John Spytek might determine that he can wait and pick from a deep running back class later.Receiver isn’t as deep, so Las Vegas should grab McMillan, whose 6-4 frame and ability to win contested catches has won him fans around the league. Some point to a lack of separation ability, but McMillan has enough juice to make tacklers miss underneath. That, combined with his physicality and toughness at the catch point, would make him the Raiders’ instant WR1.7. New York JetsArmand Membou, OT, MissouriAfter signing quarterback Justin Fields in free agency, the Jets need to give him protection following the departure of right tackle Morgan Moses. Membou has steadily risen throughout the process and is now the top offensive lineman in this class. He is an upper-tiered mover with excellent agility and power in his game. He’s a little raw in pass protection but has the quickness and awareness to prevent pass rushers from consistently penetrating the backfield. Some teams might be concerned about his height (6-4), but his length and movement ability are good enough to project him as a high-end right tackle.8. Carolina PanthersJalon Walker, Edge/LB, GeorgiaWalker is a dream fit in Carolina’s scheme, as he’d be ideal as a stand-up, 3-4 outside linebacker opposite Jadeveon Clowney. The 243-pound Walker served as a hybrid linebacker and pass rusher at Georgia, showing high upside with 6.5 sacks and 10.5 tackles for loss despite not rushing the quarterback full time. He has the first-step quickness and hand power to consistently have double-digit sack seasons in the NFL.9. New Orleans SaintsJahdae Barron, CB, TexasEvery position is on the table for rebuilding Saints, but taking Barron would help make a solid secondary even stronger. Barron was a Day 3 prospect entering the 2024 season but blossomed when he transitioned to outside corner. He notched five interceptions and nine passes defensed, and he won the Jim Thorpe Award as the nation’s best defensive back. That got him into Round 1, and he cemented that status with a 4.39-second 40-yard dash at the combine.Barron can play inside or outside cornerback, and some teams even like him at safety. I see him as a Trent McDuffie clone with high upside at outside corner even if he starts his career in the slot.10. Chicago BearsAshton Jeanty, RB, Boise StateThis is a best-case scenario for the Bears. Jeanty can do the same things Jahmyr Gibbs did for Ben Johnson’s offense in Detroit, but with more power. Jeanty is an elite contact balance runner who does not go down on first contact. He can create his own rushing lanes and has the speed to produce chunk plays. Jeanty is also a good receiving back, with 43 catches for five touchdowns in 2023 before Boise State’s offense switched to a run-heavy approach in 2024.Jeanty led the FBS with 2,750 all-purpose yards and could team with D’Andre Swift to give the Bears a fearsome run game. That, along with an interior offensive line that was bolstered with the acquisitions of guards Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson and center Drew Dalman, can further aid second-year quarterback Caleb Williams’ development.11. San Francisco 49ersWill Johnson, CB, MichiganWhat do you get for a team that lost nine starters this offseason? The best player on the board. Johnson is that player, a seamless replacement for Charvarius Ward who would be a true homegrown talent at CB1, something the 49ers haven’t had in ages. Johnson was limited to six games in 2024 with a toe injury but had two interceptions — both of which he returned for touchdowns. His playmaking ability and savvy ball skills in zone coverage remind me of Trevon Diggs. When healthy, Johnson is one of the best defenders in the nation. The 49ers can bet on a bounce-back in health and can bet that Johnson will develop better tackling at the next level.12. Dallas CowboysTyler Warren, TE, Penn StateThe Cowboys need playmakers everywhere, and that should be their early focus. Warren would give them an upper-caliber starting tight end who would instantly be Dallas’ No. 2 receiving option behind CeeDee Lamb. Brock Bowers showed how impactful a rookie tight end could be last season, and Warren has many similar qualities, including being able to get open underneath and a knack for creating yards after the catch.Warren won the John Mackey Award for the nation’s best tight end after catching 104 passes for 1,233 yards and eight touchdowns. He also ran for four touchdowns and passed for another as Penn State’s most productive offensive player. The Cowboys have been linked to running backs here, but with Jeanty off the board and a deep crop of runners in this class, they’d be better served getting a top tight end now and addressing running back on Day 2.13. Miami DolphinsWill Campbell, OT/G, LSUThere could be a big change at left tackle in Miami, depending on what happens with Terron Armstead’s contract situation. Regardless, the Dolphins need to improve their protection of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa whether Armstead returns or not.Campbell started at tackle in all three seasons at LSU, but his short arms (measured at 32⅝ inches at the combine, well below the NFL’s 34-inch standard) have tagged him as a player likely to move to guard. He has the poise and movement ability to mask his length issues at tackle. He’s a mauler with coachable upside at tackle or guard. Given how desperate the Dolphins are for a quality tackle, they’d be wise to try Campbell there first and move him to guard only if needed.14. Indianapolis ColtsColston Loveland, TE, MichiganThe Colts had only 39 receptions from their tight ends this past season, the fewest in the NFL. Loveland would provide an immediate upgrade as a natural pass catcher with soft hands, elite agility in space and the speed to run himself open.He missed time with a shoulder injury and was in a sling at the combine in late February, but it won’t affect the start of his NFL career. Loveland was the Michigan passing game this past season, catching 56 passes for 582 yards and five touchdowns despite anemic QB play. He also became an accomplished move blocker in the Wolverines’ run-heavy scheme, which Colts RB Jonathan Taylor will appreciate.15. Atlanta FalconsJihaad Campbell, LB, AlabamaWith only five picks, the Falcons are under pressure to find defensive playmakers in this draft. Campbell is exactly that, a versatile player who has scouts torn when discussing his ultimate position. He is a top-tier off-ball linebacker but has untapped pass-rush potential (five sacks in 2024) that could define his NFL career. Every NFL team is trying to find the next Micah Parsons, and there’s hope Campbell could be that as a 3-4 outside linebacker.With Atlanta’s free agent addition of Leonard Floyd, Campbell could ease himself into the lineup like Parsons did as a rookie. He could split time between edge and off the ball as he gets comfortable in the NFL.16. Arizona CardinalsMike Green, Edge, MarshallThe Cardinals made a big move early in free agency in signing edge rusher Josh Sweat from the Eagles, but they need an upgrade opposite him. Green led the FBS with 17 sacks in 2024 and has the ideal body type and movement skills to be a stand-up rusher in Jonathan Gannon’s 3-4 scheme. Green’s first step is his best asset, and he uses speed to stun blockers. He’s developing a bull-rush counter, which we saw at the Senior Bowl, but he moves best from a two-point stance. Green has elite production and high-end traits, but his NFL success will hinge on developing a consistent counter to his speed rush and learning to overcome his shorter arm length (32 inches).17. Cincinnati BengalsNick Emmanwori, S, South CarolinaWhile Trey Hendrickson’s trade request is out there, for now we’re assuming that cooler heads will prevail and the 2024 NFL sack leader will stay in Cincinnati. With Hendrickson in the fold, the Bengals desperately need a playmaker in the secondary. The 6-3, 220-pound Emmanwori is a Derwin James Jr. clone in size, strength, speed and playmaking ability. Emmanwori put on a show at the combine, running a 4.38 40 and leaping 43 inches in the vertical and 11-6 in the broad jump. He also produced on tape in 2024, with four interceptions (two returned for touchdowns) and 88 tackles. Line him up at free or strong safety and let him spy Lamar Jackson twice a season.18. Seattle SeahawksMatthew Golden, WR, TexasSeattle’s offense will look very different in 2025, with Sam Darnold taking over for Geno Smith at quarterback and Cooper Kupp replacing DK Metcalf at receiver. But the Seahawks still need more help at receiver (they also released Tyler Lockett) and on the interior of the offensive line. We’ll have the Seahawks fill the former with Golden, a big-play outside receiver who can complement Kupp and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Golden was a deep threat for Texas, with an FBS-best 23 receptions for more than 20 yards. He also ran a blazing 4.29 40 at the combine, the best of any offensive player. He is a polished route runner with sure hands, plus-level production and top athletic tools.19. Tampa Bay BuccaneersMalaki Starks, S, GeorgiaThe Buccaneers held their offense together in free agency, re-signing WR Chris Godwin and G Ben Bredeson, but they must patch some holes on defense. There’s a big one at free safety, where undrafted free agent Christian Izien is currently their projected starter. Starks started all three of his seasons at Georgia and played all over the secondary, but his best ball came at free safety in 2023. His instincts and quickness in space make him an ideal deep safety, and he hauled in five interceptions in that alignment in his first two seasons. He had to play out of position as a slot corner this past season, but when looking at his safety highlights from 2022-23, it’s easy to see Starks being a top-level NFL starter.20. Denver BroncosLuther Burden III, WR, MissouriBroncos coach Sean Payton talked about finding a “joker” in the passing game and signed free agent tight end Evan Engram to do that. But that doesn’t mean the Broncos shouldn’t throw more resources into helping second-year quarterback Bo Nix. Burden is one of my favorite players in this class, and I feel he has been a victim of overevaluation. He exploded as a sophomore in 2023, with 86 receptions for 1,212 yards and nine touchdowns, but fell to 61/676/6 in 2024. That drop-off has prompted a lot of questions, but a lot of it could be blamed on an inconsistent Missouri offense.Burden has the size (6 feet, 206 pounds), speed (4.41 40 at the combine) and tools to be an elite receiver lining up outside or in the slot.21. Pittsburgh SteelersAzareye’h Thomas, CB, Florida StateIt’s no secret the Steelers need a quarterback for the short and long term, but I expect them to add a veteran before the draft instead of overdrafting for a passer as they did with Kenny Pickett in 2022. Instead, I have them picking a foundational defensive player to help compensate for an aging roster and missed draft picks. Thomas is a big cornerback at 6-2 and 197 pounds, with the speed to play press coverage and hang in man situations. He started one season at Florida State and did a great job eliminating targets.A banner Senior Bowl week launched him into the first round, and he’d be a great fit with third-year corner Joey Porter Jr. With Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins locked up long-term in Cincinnati, the Steelers need all the coverage help they can get.22. Los Angeles ChargersOmarion Hampton, RB, North CarolinaMock drafts are fun and frustrating because a team’s needs don’t always line up with the board. We’d love to give the Chargers a big outside receiver or playmaking tight end, but there aren’t any who would be appropriate to take at this juncture. Instead, L.A. could draft Hampton to help a backfield that also added Najee Harris in free agency.Hampton has special skills as a runner and receiver, finishing third in the FBS with 1,660 rushing yards in 2024 while adding another 373 through the air. Like Harris, Hampton doesn’t have much creativity in creating rushing lanes, but he can sprint away from defenders and rip off chunk plays. He showed that speed at the combine with a 4.46 40, but he also can punish defenses with physicality late in games. Sounds like a perfect Jim Harbaugh running back.23. Green Bay PackersKelvin Banks Jr., OT, TexasThe Packers are entering the last year of Rasheed Walker’s contract, and rumors around the league have Green Bay drafting a tackle early. Banks was a three-year starter for the Longhorns at left tackle and allowed only one sack per season. He checks the size boxes (6-5, 315 pounds, 33½-inch arms) and started 42 games in college.That profile suggests he should be off the board by now, but concerns about his play power have teams saying Banks could slide. He’s a poised pass protector and has held up against top-level college competition, but he might be better as a run blocker because of his hands and athletic movement. I’m higher on Banks than the league — he’s in my overall top 10 — and this would be a steal for the Packers at this spot.24. Minnesota VikingsMaxwell Hairston, CB, KentuckyThe Vikings were aggressive in free agency, so they don’t have many glaring needs. But there is concern at cornerback, where signees Isaiah Rodgers and Jeff Okudah project more as temporary fixes than long-term solutions. Hairston can definitely be a long-term building block. Not only is he feisty in coverage but he has elite footwork and ran the fastest 40 out of all prospects at the combine (4.28 seconds).Despite being 5-11, Hairston’s long arms can lock down receivers when combined with his quickness. There are size and durability concerns, as he missed five games in 2024 with a shoulder injury, but he has the best movement skills of any corner in this class. The Vikings have to get younger, faster and better at cornerback. Hairston can help them get there and boost their man coverage capabilities.25. Houston TexansJosh Simmons, OT, Ohio StateThe Texans have undergone massive turnover on a struggling offensive line, with Laremy Tunsil, Kenyon Green and Shaq Mason departing and Cam Robinson, Laken Tomlinson and Ed Ingram arriving. I expect the Texans to look for a young foundational player up front, and Simmons could be that.Before suffering a torn left patellar tendon in his right knee in mid-October, Simmons looked like a prime contender to be OT1 in this class. He has experience at both tackle spots with the size and length teams are looking for in a blindside blocker. Simmons moves with poise and balance, almost like a basketball player. His ceiling is very high, and he could be a rare franchise tackle available late in the first round.26. Los Angeles RamsJaxson Dart, QB, Ole MissAfter waiting to see whether Matthew Stafford would return for another season, it’s time for the Rams to prepare for their post-Stafford future at quarterback. Dart could go as high as the top 10 depending on how the QB board settles early in the draft. He’s an accurate thrower on intermediate routes with underrated ability to layer the deep ball downfield. He’s also experienced, starting the past three seasons at Ole Miss after transferring from USC.Dart got better every season under Lane Kiffin and has the eyes and arm to make plays on time and to every area of the field. Dart will need time to acclimate to the NFL, as Kiffin’s RPO-heavy scheme limited his reads and progressions, but he can sit and learn behind Stafford in 2025. The Rams don’t have a second-round pick, so this would be the time to aggressively pursue their QB of the future.27. Baltimore RavensDerrick Harmon, DT, OregonThe Ravens fell short of the Super Bowl again and have been quiet this offseason — veteran wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins was their highlight addition. Baltimore needs youth and upgrades on both sides of the ball in the draft, and Harmon would give it a defensive tackle with the versatility to play 5-technique and kick inside as a pass rusher. He has a violent first step and arrives to the ball with aggressiveness. Harmon is big enough (6-5, 313 pounds) to stack blockers but also has the quickness to knife into gaps and make plays. He was a second-team All-American this past season, registering five sacks and 10.5 tackles for loss. He would fit well with the Ravens’ scheme as a 5-technique who can work up and down a defensive line.28. Detroit LionsGrey Zabel, C/G, North Dakota StateWith guard Kevin Zeitler departing in free agency and center Frank Ragnow being year-to-year at this point of his career, the Lions would pick up a long-term interior lineman by picking Zabel. He played left tackle for North Dakota State in 2024, but he has played left guard and right tackle in his college career and was impressive at center during the Senior Bowl. The 6-6, 312-pound Zabel has the quickness, leverage and strength to play anywhere along the line. He had no issues jumping from the FCS to FBS-level competition at the Senior Bowl, consistently shutting down defensive linemen with grades in the top two rounds. Zabel would immediately start at guard in Detroit, with a long-term goal of being Ragnow’s replacement at center.29. Washington CommandersShemar Stewart, Edge, Texas A&MThe Commanders have undergone defensive line changes this offseason, with longtime starting defensive tackle Jonathan Allen departing and Javon Kinlaw being added. But Washington still needs a premier outside pass rusher, and Stewart has the traits to be great. The 6-5 Stewart put on a show at the combine after losing 14 pounds from the Senior Bowl (281 to 267), running a 4.59 40 while leaping 40 inches in the vertical and 10 feet, 11 inches, in the broad jump.He has the length, speed and power of an All-Pro, but he must learn how to turn his traits into production. He had only 4.5 sacks in three college seasons (1.5 each year), and his run defense impact doesn’t jump off the tape. He’s the ultimate upside prospect with double-digit sack potential. Stewart would be a huge steal here if he can put everything together, but the disconnect between his measurables and his on-field production could cause him to fall to this point.30. Buffalo BillsTrey Amos, CB, Ole MissThe Bills were more aggressive this offseason than a year ago, locking up in-house talent (wide receiver Khalil Shakir) while bringing in free agents (edge rusher Joey Bosa). But Buffalo needs more help in the secondary, and Amos is one of my guys in this draft. He has size (6-1, 195 pounds) and speed (4.43 in the 40), and it shows on tape. He executes in-phase coverage and has the skills to be an exceptional press-cover cornerback. Amos bounced around in college (Ole Miss was his third school) and is a bit raw, but he’s a playmaker who notched three interceptions last season. He has the potential to be the Bills’ future CB1 and a long-term building block.31. Kansas City ChiefsMykel Williams, Edge, GeorgiaThe Chiefs took care of their most glaring roster need in free agency by signing left tackle Jaylon Moore, so they should use this pick as a step toward building the overall talent and depth on their roster. Williams has moments of greatness — he combined for four sacks in two games against Texas in 2024 — but also tends to disappear. He was slowed this season by an ankle injury, yet he showed toughness and glimpses of his ceiling.Working alongside Chris Jones and George Karlaftis would give Williams one-on-one matchups with offensive linemen as he develops his game. His rare physical tools could make him a special 4-3 defensive end — if he puts everything together. Williams’ pass rush is based mostly on physical ability and lacks technique, but the Chiefs have a good track record of developing defensive talent.32. Philadelphia EaglesDonovan Ezeiruaku, Edge, Boston College“Draft and replace” is Philadelphia’s motto, and the Eagles have to replace edge rusher Josh Sweat, who signed with the Cardinals after getting 2.5 sacks in Super Bowl LIX. Ezeiruaku is a bit undersized (6-3, 248 pounds) but uses his 34-inch arms and first-step speed to get around and under the hands of offensive tackles. He was extremely productive this past season, with 80 tackles and 16.5 sacks, the second-best mark in the FBS.Ezeiruaku’s lack of height and power makes him a polarizing prospect, but the Eagles could use him as a stand-up pass-rushing specialist early in his career while he adds strength and further develops his game. Adding him to a rotation with 2023 first-rounder Nolan Smith Jr. and 2024 third-rounder Jalyx Hunt would give the Eagles youth and depth as they hope to maintain the league’s fiercest pass rush.
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