NFC NORTH

CHICAGO

The Bears have extended CB JAYLON JOHNSON.  Kevin Myers of ChicagoBears.com:

The Bears on Thursday agreed to terms on a four-year contract extension with cornerback Jaylon Johnson.

“We’re extremely excited to be able to keep Jaylon here for the next four years,” general manager Ryan Poles said. “He’s an integral part of our defense and his leadership will help our team continue to ascend. We want to thank Chris Ellison for helping get this extension done.”

Johnson was selected by the Bears in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft out of Utah. He has started all 53 games he’s played over four seasons, registering 161 tackles, five interceptions, 41 pass breakups, four tackles-for-loss, three forced fumbles and one fumble recovery.

This past season the 6-foot, 196-pounder was voted second-team All-Pro and named to his first career Pro Bowl. He recorded 36 tackles, a career-high four interceptions—one of which he returned 39 yards for his first career touchdown—10 pass breakups, one tackle-for-loss and one forced fumble.

According to Pro Football Focus, Johnson limited opposing quarterbacks to a 26.2 passer rating when targeted in single coverage in Weeks 1-14, the lowest figure among cornerbacks in 2023. Through the first 15 Weeks, he allowed only 185 yards in single coverage. Johnson also had only one game where he allowed more than 25 yards in single coverage (PFF).

Johnson was due to become an unrestricted free agent at the start of the new league year March 13, but the Bears placed a non-exclusive franchise tag on the 24-year-old Tuesday. That gave them the opportunity to match any offer he received from another NFL team or receive two first-round draft picks as compensation if they chose not to match the deal.

With Johnson having agreed to the extension, the Bears have locked in another piece of a young, talented secondary that includes cornerbacks Kyler Gordon and Tyrique Stevenson and safety Jaquan Brisker.

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com looks at the contract and doesn’t think Johnson maximized his earnings potential.

Jaylon Johnson could have made $19.8 million, fully guaranteed, for 2024. He has instead traded it in for, reportedly, a $76 million, four-year deal, with $54 million guaranteed.

It will be impossible to know the truth about the deal without the full details, since (as we know) the initial reports have a tendency to be exaggerated.

Even with what we know, it’s a little alarming — and multiple league insiders are buzzing about it. The deal averages $19 million. Johnson could have made $19.8 million this year and, if tagged again in 2025, $23.76 million.

That’s $43.56 million over two years. The convention when it comes to turning a franchise tag into a long-term deal is to ensure that the first two years of the tag are fully-guaranteed at signing.

Maybe it is. Maybe the deal is front loaded. For now, however, there are real questions about whether Johnson got fair value for trading in the $19.8 million tag for 2024, and the availability of a 20-percent raise if tagged again.

In a world of uncertainty, $54 million guaranteed seems pretty good.  Not sure it’s “alarming.”

NFC EAST

DALLAS

Interesting.  TE DALTON SCHULTZ had this to say about the Cowboys as he compared his current team, the downstate Texans.  Jared Dubin of CBSSports.com:

Earlier this week, the Houston Texans signed tight end Dalton Schultz to a new three-year contract, locking in one of C.J. Stroud’s top targets for the remainder of the star quarterback’s rookie-scale deal. After signing Schultz on a one-year, $6.1 million pact last offseason, Houston effectively doubled his pay this time around, with a $36 million contract that contains $23.5 million in guarantees.

Upon signing the new deal, Schultz appeared on The Pat McAfee Show on ESPN and talked about, among other things, the difference between playing for the Texans and playing for the Dallas Cowboys — the team with which he spent the first five seasons of his career.

“The focus is just football, you know what I mean?” Schultz said of playing in Houston. “I’m going back and telling some people about being around the Cowboys practice facility and game day and describing some of the interactions and stuff that you see on a day-to-day basis and it surprises a lot of people. They’re like, ‘Holy crap. That actually happens at a practice facility?’ You think it’s normal, and then you come to a place like this.”

What’s an example?

“It’s literally a zoo, dude,” Schultz said. “There’s people tapping on the glass trying to get people’s attention while they’re doing power cleans or whatever. It’s different. That’s the brand that they’ve built, that’s what [owner] Jerry Jones likes, that’s the way that they run things and there’s nothing wrong with that. You don’t realize how many eyeballs and how much that can maybe distract in the locker room, just being in the facility until you go somewhere else and you’re like, ‘Holy crap, there’s none of that.'”

Earlier this offseason, both Jerry and Stephen Jones insisted that the Cowboys do not have a “culture” problem; but if a former player is comparing your culture unfavorable to that of the Houston Texans, who until last year were a team considered to have one of the worst organizational cultures in the league, that seems like the kind of thing that should ping your radar. Of course, we know that nothing is going to change in Dallas. As Schultz said, Jerry likes the way things work and likes that the Cowboys are the center of attention and often a circus (or a zoo), and so that’s the way they will remain.

AFC WEST

DENVER

S JUSTIN SIMMONS, a longtime Broncos mainstay, is a cap cut.  Jeff Legwold ofESPN.com:

The Denver Broncos continued their extensive foundational offseason makeover Thursday, as they informed safety Justin Simmons he will be released.

Simmons, who was the Broncos’ third-round pick in the 2016 draft, was the team’s longest-tenured player. And Simmons, who was also one of the most active players in the community in his tenure, was often the public face of the locker room, in good times and bad, during the current eight-year playoff drought.

“Justin Simmons’ impact as a Denver Bronco extends far beyond his exceptional play during eight seasons with our organization,” the Broncos said in a statement. “In addition to growing into an All-Pro and team captain, Justin became our perennial Walter Payton NFL Man of the Year devoted to uplifting others and using his influence for positive change. Whether it was in Denver or his hometown of Stuart, Florida, Justin inspired and mentored countless youth while providing unwavering support to the community. The hundreds of hours he spent at the Denver Broncos Boys & Girls Club will be as much a part of Justin’s legacy with the Broncos as his leadership, dependability and many interceptions. Justin will always be a Bronco, and we thank him for the outstanding manner in which he represented our organization on and off the field.”

The Broncos, who announced Monday they will release quarterback Russell Wilson, are in a salary cap bind. Wilson’s release will put a record $85 million dead money charge on the Broncos’ books over the next two seasons.

Simmons, 30, was scheduled to have the fourth-highest salary cap charge for the 2024 season — $18.25 million. His release would add another $3.75 million in dead money for the Broncos but will save the team $14.5 million against the salary cap overall.

The Broncos entered the week about $16 million over the $255.4 million salary cap. By league rules, they have to be under the cap with their top 51 salary cap charges by the time free agency officially opens next week.

Simmons was in the team’s first draft class after the Super Bowl 50 victory to close out the 2015 season, which also is the Broncos’ most recent postseason game. Sean Payton was the fifth head coach Simmons played for, and Vance Joseph was his fifth defensive coordinator this past season.

“I just want to win” is how Simmons explained what he hoped the team’s plan was moving forward near the end of this past season. “That’s my frame of mind, I just want to win, I want to help us do that, I want to see us do that, and that’s what I think about every day when I get up to come here.”

Simmons appeared in no playoff games in his 118 games with the team.

If the Broncos don’t want him, Shiel Kapadia of The Ringer says other teams will.

Justin Simmons

VETERAN BALL-HAWKING SAFETY WHO WILL BE A CULTURE FIT ANYWHERE.

Simmons is a late add to the list after the Broncos released him on March 7 for salary cap savings. He has been a second-team All-Pro for three consecutive seasons and should draw interest from teams in need of a veteran ball-hawking safety. Simmons’s 23 interceptions since the start of the 2019 season are tied for first in the NFL. His 51 passes defended during that stretch are first among safeties. The only knock against Simmons is that he’s entering his age-31 season. A deal in the neighborhood of $9 million per year could make sense, although it’s possible a team will fall in love with a player who has 30 career interceptions and get more aggressive.

AFC EAST

MIAMI

TE JONNU SMITH signs with Miami per ESPN.com:

Free agent tight end Jonnu Smith and the Miami Dolphins reached agreement on a two-year deal worth up to $10 million, a source told ESPN’s Adam Schefter on Thursday.

The Dolphins have struggled to get production out of the tight end position under coach Mike McDaniel. Mike Gesicki led Miami tight ends with 362 yards in 2022 and Durham Smythe did so with 366 yards last season.

Miami addressed the position last offseason, drafting Elijah Higgins in the sixth round. But he did not make the 53-man roster, with the spot instead going to undrafted free agent Julian Hill.

Smith slots in as the Dolphins’ best receiving tight end, with Hill operating as more of a blocker and Smythe operating in a hybrid role.

Smith, 28, was released by the Atlanta Falcons last week, less than a year after they acquired him from the New England Patriots.

The Falcons moved on from Smith after he posted career highs in receptions (50) and yards (582) in Atlanta’s offense under former coach Arthur Smith last season. There had been a familiarity between Arthur Smith and Jonnu Smith from their time in Tennessee together from 2017 to 2020.

Smith, a third-round pick in the 2017 draft by Tennessee, has played in 107 games, making 78 starts. He has caught 219 passes for 2,423 yards and 20 touchdowns in his career between the Titans, Patriots and Falcons.

NEW YORK JETS

QB AARON RODGERS has Brady-like plans.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers will play in 2024. He might be playing well beyond that, too.

Appearing recently on the Look Into It Podcast with Eddie Bravo, Rodgers discussed his plans for the balance of his career.

“I’m hopeful I can play two or three or four more years, but you need to have some good fortune in there to,” Rodgers said, via John Breech of CBSSports.com.

In 2023, Rodgers was limited to four snaps, thanks to a torn Achilles. Four years would take him to age 43; he’d turn 44 during the fourth season.

Can he do it? His arm will surely still be there. The challenge becomes the legs. He needs to not put too much stress on aging joints and ligaments and cartilage; he still has the power in his lower body to accelerate and move. The key will be to become more stationary, and to get rid of the ball in lieu of trying to run around with it.

It will be interesting to see whether he spends the rest of his career with the Jets. He has previously acknowledged that everyone is on the hot seat in 2024. If the team doesn’t thrive, maybe he’ll take the next step in the Brett Favre career arc and sign with the Vikings.

THIS AND THAT

UNBREAKABLE RECORDS

A long treatise on “unbreakable” records from Scott Kacsmar, writing at 365scores. Com (some editing):

The NFL’s most unbreakable records certainly set a high bar for excellence. With a history of more than 100 seasons, the NFL record book is filled with countless achievements, and many of those records are going to be so hard to break due to the way the game and league have changed over that time. We may have found the top 15 records that are going to stand the test of time as we prepare for the 2024 NFL season where more history will be on the line.

But records can even fall in the NFL’s offseason. Just this week, the Broncos are expected to set a record for dead money as a salary cap hit by releasing Russell Wilson, who will cost Denver $85 million over the next two years. That’s more than the next two biggest dead money cap hits in NFL history combined. Talk about a record no one wants to break going forward.

But between Wilson’s dead cap money and LeBron James hitting 40,000 points in the NBA this week, it got us thinking.

What are the NFL’s 15 most unbreakable records that are still within reason to be challenged in our lifetimes?

I wrote an article just like this for Bleacher Report in 2012, and since then, one of those “unbreakable records” has been broken. The 2022 Vikings erased a 33-0 deficit against the Colts, replacing the 1992 AFC Wild Card, Buffalo over Houston (32 points), for the largest comeback win in NFL history. The Bills still hold the postseason record for the biggest comeback.

With an interesting 2024 NFL season on the way where we’ll be talking about if the Kansas City Chiefs can pull off the first Super Bowl three-peat, this feels like a good time, before free agency and the draft, to review the NFL’s 15 most unbreakable records.

The Caveats

Before we get into our list, we wanted to mention some caveats about the records we chose. It would be very easy to pick 15 records that will never be broken in the lifetime of anyone living today. But we wanted to focus on those records that are still at least possible in theory. They are still fair game because a lot of records are just not possible in modern football.

For instance, you’ll never see a team with 6 ties again in a season, or 3 ties in a row like the 1932 Chicago Bears had. The overtime rules made sure of that. Those 1932 Bears, in the first NFL season to record official statistics for every game, also allowed 44 points in the entire season, a record to this day. You’ll never see that one broken either. The 2000 Ravens hold the record for the fewest points allowed in a 16-game season at 165 points.

There is a strong likelihood we have 18-game regular seasons soon, which will make it much easier for any counting record to fall. Someone like Patrick Mahomes will likely throw more than 55 touchdowns to break Peyton Manning’s single-season record from 2013 if given an extra two games to do it.

On the flip side, a longer season will make the “fewest” stats that much harder to achieve like the fewest interceptions thrown or the fewest turnovers by an offense in a season. More games make it harder to sustain high-rate stats such as the highest completion percentage, passer rating, third-down conversion rate, etc.

Any records associated with the “most league leads” either total or consecutive are unlikely to be broken thanks to expansion and a 32-team league. It’s just much harder to keep leading the league when there are 31 other teams compared to 7-to-13 teams. Don Hutson, the NFL’s first dominant wide receiver, led the league in receiving touchdowns 9 times. That will never be broken.

Then there are the unbreakable records that are so obscure or niche that it’s almost impossible to break them no matter what rules change. For instance, Fred Dryer, who later became known for playing the lead role of Hunter, is still the only NFL player to score two safeties in the same game. Maybe someone ties that one day, but breaking it with 3 safeties in one game? Forget about it.

Honorable Mention: The Most Wins by a Head Coach in NFL History (347 – Don Shula)

In 2012, my No. 1 unbreakable NFL record was Don Shula’s 347 wins as a head coach. In 2024, it is only the honorable mention as it does now look breakable.

Bill Belichick has 333 wins, which includes playoffs (as does Shula’s 347). The problem is he will not be a head coach this season after the Patriots moved on, which was expected. No other team hired him, so his age-72 season is not happening.

Can he return in 2025 at 73 years old? Yes, he hasn’t announced his retirement yet. But 73 is extremely old for this demanding job.

Even Chicago legend George Halas and Buffalo’s Hall of Fame coach Marv Levy both called it a career after their age-72 season.

Pete Carroll is turning 73 in September, and just like Belichick, his team moved on from him this year and he is not going to be an NFL head coach in 2024.

The only person to coach at 73 years old was Romeo Crennel for 12 games as the interim coach of the 2020 Texans, and he only returned as an advisor the following year.

Those are the only 5 head coaches to do the job after turning 70. If Belichick does return, can he win 15 total games in one season to break the record? Not likely. That means it could take two more seasons, which would have him at 74 in 2026.

Shula’s record may have dodged the Belichick challenge, and Belichick the GM is the reason for that. He just did not give himself enough good players to coach in the 2020s.

But the other reason this record still looks breakable is Andy Reid in Kansas City. Nope, I had no idea in 2012 that he’d end up in Kansas City and eventually land Patrick Mahomes, who is a 1-of-1 at the quarterback position.

Reid turns 66 this month and he is at 284 wins, so he needs 64 wins to surpass Shula’s 347 wins. Reid has won at least 13 games in every season with Mahomes as his quarterback, so he could realistically pull this off with 5 more seasons coached, which would allow him to retire just before his 71st birthday.

When you have the best quarterback in the game and a chance to keep winning Super Bowls and set this type of record, would you really want to step away from the game that’s been your life? Retiring after your age-70 season sounds just fine in this economy.

Between Belichick and Reid, I’m not touting this one as unbreakable anymore. Maybe if I have a chance to update this is another dozen years and Shula survives the challenge from both, then we can talk about putting it back in the list of most unbreakable records.

15. Most Passing Yards in a Game, Individual: 554 (Norm Van Brocklin, 1951 Rams vs. Yanks)

The Record: Hall of Famer Norm Van Brocklin passed for 554 yards in the 1951 season opener, played on a Friday, against the New York Yanks in a 54-14 win for the Rams. It is still the most passing yards ever by a quarterback in an NFL game (regular season or postseason).

The Runner-Up: Warren Moon (1990 Oilers at Chiefs) and Matt Schaub (2012 Texans vs. Jaguars) both passed for 527 yards in a game, ranking 27 yards behind NVB’s record. Schaub even needed multiple drives in overtime to get there.

Believe it or not, this is the third-oldest record in the entire piece. It seems crazy to think this record still hasn’t been broken 73 years later with the evolution of the passing game and the way quarterbacks throw for 5,000 yards now. But given how long it has stood and the great quarterbacks who were unable to take it down, we have to give it some well-earned respect. Here is how close some of the top quarterbacks of the last 70 years came to NVB’s 554 yards:

Ben Roethlisberger – 522

Dan Marino – 521

Matthew Stafford – 520

Tom Brady – 517

Drew Brees – 510

Tony Romo – 506

Y.A. Tittle – 505

Matt Ryan – 503

Joe Namath – 496

Kurt Warner – 484

Aaron Rodgers – 480

Peyton Manning – 479

Patrick Mahomes – 478

Joe Montana – 476

Dan Fouts – 444 (twice)

Those Rams were prolific in the 1950s by any standard. The 1950 team still holds the record with 38.8 points per game, and this game with 554 yards was the first game of the 1951 season against a team that would finish 1-9-2 and fold after the season.

It’s a tough record to break as dominant performances usually see the team ease up late in the game and run the ball or bench the quarterback for the backup. But as one of the longest-standing records on our list, we wanted to give it some love.

14. Highest Rushing Yards Per Carry in a Regular Season (Min. 100 Rushes): 8.45 (Michael Vick, 2006 Falcons)

The Record: In the 2006 season, Atlanta quarterback Michael Vick averaged 8.45 yards per carry, gaining 1,039 yards on 123 runs. It was the first time a quarterback rushed for 1,000 yards in a season in NFL history.

The Runner-Up: Before there was Vick, Randall Cunningham averaged 7.98 yards per carry for the 1990 Eagles on 118 runs.

The game is certainly changing with mobile quarterbacks who can also throw becoming the new standard. But Vick was truly a unique talent with his legs, and he was at his rushing best in 2006 when the team started toying with the read-option a full 6 years before it became a bigger deal in the NFL with Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III, Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, etc.

13. Highest Turnover Differential in a Regular Season: +43 (1983 Redskins)

The Record: The 1983 Washington Redskins dominated at turnovers in a way no team has in NFL history. They led the league with 61 takeaways on defense and they led the league with only 18 giveaways on offense, producing a record-setting +43 turnover differential that hasn’t been sniffed since.

The Runner-Up: The 1958 Baltimore Colts were +30 in a 12-game season, the only team within 13 turnovers of the Redskins. The best mark any team has had in a 16-game season was +28 by the 2010 Patriots and 2011 49ers.

The irony is those Redskins imploded in the Super Bowl against the Raiders, throwing a pick-six on a screen pass that led to a 38-9 rout for a team that was 14-2 and set the record for points scored in a season that year. But even in the playoffs, they were +3 in turnovers, making them +46 for the entire season.

This one is unlikely to be broken because of how the game has changed with turnovers. Teams throw fewer interceptions than ever before, and fumbling has also gone down.

Even if a team had almost no turnovers like the 2019 Saints, who set the record with just 8 giveaways in 16 games, they would need at least 52 takeaways on defense to break the record with a +44 turnover differential. No one has had 52 takeaways in a season since the 1989 Eagles (56).

The most takeaways in a season since 1990 was 49 by the 2000 Ravens, another historic defense. We’ll take our chances that there won’t be another team as historic on offense and defense in the same season going forward that can dominate the turnover battle like this.

12. Most Sacks by a Defender in a Game: 7 (Derrick Thomas, 1990 Chiefs vs. Seahawks)

The Record: Hall of Famer Derrick Thomas had 7.0 sacks of quarterback Dave Krieg in a 1990 game for the Chiefs against the Seahawks. You can watch them all here, but make sure you watch until the end as Thomas had Krieg in his grasp for sack No. 8 to end the game, but Krieg incredibly managed to escape and threw a game-winning touchdown pass to win 17-16.

The Runner-Up: A total of five players, including Thomas again in 1998, have finished a game with 6.0 sacks in their career. Most recently, Khalil Mack of the Chargers sacked rookie Aidan O’Connell of the Raiders 6 times last season.

This is one of those records that could be tied someday but breaking it with 8.0 sacks (7.5 technically works too) will be quite the achievement. Sacks have been officially tracked since 1982, but there’s never been verified evidence of a player having more than 7.0 sacks in a game before Thomas did it in 1990.

We did observe this past season that the sack rate was at a 25-year high in the NFL. This is the result of more inexperienced, mobile quarterbacks who are prime for taking sacks. That is why someone like a T.J. Watt or Micah Parsons could clean up in a game against one of these quarterbacks, but 7.0 sacks is a lot to make up before the team gets smarter and starts to chip and double team every snap. You can’t just keep leaving a tackle on an island like that the whole game.

This one should continue to have staying power.

11. Most Rushing Attempts in a Game by a Player: 45 (Jamie Morris, 1988 Redskins at Bengals)

The Record: In the 1988 season finale, the Redskins were already eliminated from the playoffs with a 7-8 record. Head coach Joe Gibbs was down to his No. 3 running back in Jamie Morris, a fourth-round rookie, so he gave him all 45 of the running back carries that day in a 20-17 overtime loss in Cincinnati. Morris gained 152 yards on the 45 carries, which was more than a third of his season yardage (437 yards). A year later, Morris received 38 carries in a game against the Eagles, but he finished his career with only 777 rushing yards and is an obscure name in the annals of NFL history despite holding this record.

The Runner-Up: There have been three other backs to get 43 carries in a game, including Butch Woolfolk (1983 Giants at Eagles), James Wilder (1984 Buccaneers vs. Packers), and Rudi Johnson (2003 Bengals vs. Texans).

Hall of Fame coach Joe Gibbs is on the list again. We already had his 1983 Redskins earlier for the best turnover differential, and we’ll likely never see another coach win three Super Bowls with three different starting quarterbacks in a 10-year span like he did in 1982-91 again.

But this record speaks to how the game used to be played with workhorse backs before the committee approach started taking over around 2007. If a coach gave a running back 45 carries today, he would be heavily questioned for it unless the back was destroying the opponent and eyeing a record 300-yard game. There are just better ways to keep guys fresh and healthy than to give them 45 carries in one game.

Since 2007 when Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch were drafted, no running back has had 40 carries in a game. 7

10. Most Punt Return Touchdowns, Career: 14 (Devin Hester)

The Record: Chicago return specialist Devin Hester, who is going into the Hall of Fame next year, returned an NFL-record 14 punt return touchdowns in his career (2006-16).

The Runner-Up: Eric Metcalf previously held the record with 10 punt return touchdowns in 1989-02.

This was one where I thought about getting cute and picking Cordarrelle Patterson’s record of 9 kickoff return touchdowns because the NFL has ruined kickoffs. Over 73% of kickoffs were touchbacks last season, and since Patterson did it as a rookie in 2013, only two other players in the last decade have had multiple kickoff return touchdowns in a season. You’re lucky if you see a few in an entire season these days.

But the NFL can always tinker with the kickoff rules, and maybe we’ll see it return in style someday. I just wanted to acknowledge that Hester is the best overall returnman in NFL history and not the best kickoff returner.

Punts was where Hester did his most damage with 14 scores or 4 more than the next-closest player. Punts have not been nearly as transformed in this league as kickoffs, but it is hard to name a real dynamic punt returner right now.

Hester was so special at this, and the Bears certainly made special teams a central part of their team’s success in a way it feels like no other team does anymore. This record of 14 returns on punts should have serious staying power. No active player has more than 4 punt return touchdowns.

9. Most Consecutive Road Wins, Including Playoffs: 19 (1988-90 49ers)

The Record: From Week 13 in the 1988 season through the entire 1990 season, the 49ers were 19-0 on the road. That includes a 28-3 win in Chicago in the 1988 NFC Championship Game, followed by perfect 8-0 records on the road in 1989 and 1990. This does not include the two Super Bowls the 49ers won during this time on neutral fields, so you could say the team won 21 straight games away from home.

The Runner-Up: The 2016-17 Patriots won 14 straight road games, catching a few breaks along the way like playing a couple of 10-win playoff teams with their backup quarterbacks, including the 2016 Steelers (Landry Jones instead of Ben Roethlisberger) and 2016 Dolphins (Matt Moore instead of Ryan Tannehill). The 2019-20 Chiefs were the most recent team to win 11 straight road games, tied for the third-longest streak when including the playoffs.

The San Francisco streak is mighty impressive to this day as the 49ers had to overcome Chicago’s top-ranked defense on the road in that 1988 title game. They also had an odd scheduling quirk as 5-of-6 games to start the 1989 season were on the road, including a difficult trip to Philadelphia in a classic comeback win against the Eagles. This also was the year Bill Walsh retired as head coach and George Siefert took over, so the 49ers were on top of things right away in 1989 despite going on the road so much without their Hall of Fame coach.

The 1990 team also swept 8-0 on the road and you have to remember this was at a time when home-field advantage was stronger with home teams winning around 58% of the time. Today, we have seen some recent seasons where the home team was only .500 or even had a losing record.

But there’s a reason this San Francisco team, which traveled well with their own team plane before that was standard, was the closest we have ever seen to a three-peat in the Super Bowl era. They lose at home in the 1990 NFC Championship Game after Roger Craig fumbled against the Giants.

Maybe they would have preferred the road. But this record has lasted over 30 years and withstood any challenges from the Patriots’ dynasty, so it should be good for several more years unless the Chiefs ever break it with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.

8. Most Consecutive Super Bowl Losses: 4 (1990-93 Buffalo Bills)

The Record: The 1990-93 Buffalo Bills are still the only team to reach 4 straight Super Bowls, and they are the only team to lose 4 straight Super Bowls too.

The Runner-Up: Getting back to the Super Bowl after a loss is very tough, but the only other teams to lose it in back-to-back years are the 1973-74 Vikings and 1986-87 Broncos.

There is a chance some team gets to 4 straight Super Bowls again someday. Hell, the Chiefs might have been in the last 5 if they didn’t blow an 18-point lead against the 2021 Bengals at home in the AFC Championship Game. But to lose them all again like Buffalo? Not likely.

7. Most Points in an NFL Game, Individual: 40 (Ernie Nevers, 1929 Cardinals vs. Bears)

The Record: In 1929, Ernie Nevers of the Chicago Cardinals scored 40 points against the Chicago Bears in a 40-6 win. Nevers scored 6 touchdowns and kicked all 4 extra points for his team to score their 40 points.

The Runner-Up: Nevers was the first player to score 6 touchdowns in a game, which has since been tied by Dub Jones (1951 Browns vs. Bears), Gale Sayers (1965 Bears vs. 49ers), and Alvin Kamara (2020 Saints vs. Vikings). But since those players did not kick extra points like Nevers, they all finished with 36 points.

This one does speak to the older era where it was not uncommon for a non-traditional kicker to kick extra points and accumulate extra scoring that way. In fact, Green Bay halfback Paul Hornung was notorious for doing that in the 1960s. But Nevers getting to connect on 4 extra points is why he still holds this record almost 100 years later.

However, that 2020 game on Christmas with Kamara gives some hope we’ll see this broken with the first player to score 7 touchdowns, which would be 42 points. In fact, it probably should have happened that day as Taysom Hill flat out stole Kamara’s shot at history. The Saints called a timeout with 4:03 left at the 1-yard line and instead of putting in Kamara for history, they handed the ball to Hill for the score. This wasn’t even a situation of running up the score since it was a 38-27 game at the time, so the situation ws perfect. But Sean Payton just ruins everything with his Hill love.

There is some hope we’ll see a player score 7 touchdowns in a game and set that record as well as the scoring record with 42 points.

6. Most Rushing Attempts, Yards, and Touchdowns in NFL History: 4,409 Carries, 18,355 Yards, 164 Touchdowns (Emmitt Smith)

The Record: Cowboys running back Emmitt Smith retired after the 2004 season with NFL records for rushing attempts (4,409), rushing yards (18,355), and rushing touchdowns (164).

The Runners-Up: Chicago legend Walter Payton used to hold the records for rushing attempts (3,838) and rushing yards (16,726) before Smith surpassed him. As for the touchdowns, LaDainian Tomlinson came the closest with 145 rushing touchdowns, but he was still 20 short of surpassing Emmitt.

These records start to feel safer by the year as teams move away from the workhorse back and continue using a variety of players in a committee approach, and now the quarterback is also starting to become an integral part of an NFL team’s running game.

The game has just moved away from backs like Emmitt Smith. In fact, the person most likely to break the rushing record was Barry Sanders, but he retired before his age-31 season in Detroit when he was sitting on 15,269 yards.

Frank Gore finished with 16,000 rushing yards to rank between Payton and Sanders for No. 3 all time. He did it the hard way by playing 16 years for a variety of teams and not retiring until he was going to be 38. But the 30-year-old running back is going extinct, and teams are hesitant to use high draft picks on the position or pay for a second contract.

Even the more feasible record to break, the 164 touchdowns, is going to be so hard. Someone like McCaffrey led the league with 21 total touchdowns last year, but only 14 of those were rushing. He has just 52 rushing touchdowns in his career and he’s going on 28.

We’re not sure how long the Tush Push is going to be in style (or legal), but that might be a way for quarterbacks to get in on the rushing touchdown record. But someone like Josh Allen scored 15 times on the ground last year, and someone would have to do that for 11 straight seasons to score 165 rushing touchdowns to beat Emmitt.

Jalen Hurts has 41 rushing touchdowns in 4 seasons. He would have to play 12 more years at that rate just to match Emmitt’s 164. Does that seem viable with his style, and is that Tush Push going to be as good without Jason Kelce as his center going forward?

Emmitt’s records are safe.

5. Interceptions (Defense): Various

The 8 NFL seasons with the fewest interceptions per game are the last 8 seasons, all finishing around 0.8 picks per game. Only about 2.3% of passes are intercepted in the NFL today after it was 10% in 1941, 8% in 1950, 5.1% in 1965, 4.0% in 1986, and it hasn’t been at 3.0% since 2010.

For that reason, we have a series of interception records on the defensive side of the ball that we feel safe will not be broken due to the way the game has changed with quicker, shorter, safer throws.

Most interceptions in a game – 4 (done by 21 players; last was DeAngelo Hall in 2010)

Most interceptions in a season – 14 (Night Train Lane, 1952 Rams)

Most interceptions in a career – 81 (Paul Krause, 1964-67 Redskins, 1968-79 Vikings)

For a single game, getting 4 picks has been done a lot (21 times), though only twice in the 21st century. We may see this one get tied again, but breaking it with 5? Good luck.

As for the season, Dick Night Train Lane had 14 picks in just 12 games as a rookie in 1952. That will always stand as the rookie record, but there’s a good chance it stands as the overall record even with a looming 18-game season. No one gets that many picks anymore, and Night Train played the game much differently with so many illegal hits and contacts that would result in flag after flag today if a player tried emulating him.

Since the illegal contact rule was put in place in 1978, only Lester Hayes on the 1980 Raiders (13), Mike Reinfeldt on the 1979 Oilers (12), Everson Walls on the 1981 Cowboys (11), and Trevon Diggs on the 2021 Cowboys (11) had at least 11 interceptions in a season.

Iinterceptions only continue to decrease. Out of all players to start their careers since 2004 (the last 20 years), DeAngelo Hall (43) is the only player to break 40 interceptions. Next on that list is Reggie Nelson, who had 38 picks in 2007-18. The third player is Richard Sherman with 37 interceptions, and he’ll make the Hall of Fame. But when it comes to ball-hawking defensive backs in this era, they are all struggling with the way the game has changed.

Krause’s 81 is safe.

4. Interceptions (Offense): Various

As we just looked at with the defense, interceptions are increasingly rare on offense no matter how hard Jameis Winston tried to bring back the old NFL. There are several records for quarterbacks throwing interceptions that should be even safer than the defensive records since a quarterback is likely to get benched now if they start approaching these numbers:

Most interceptions in a game – 8 (Jim Hardy, 1950 Cardinals vs. Eagles)

Most interceptions in a season – 42 (George Blanda, 1962 Oilers)

Most interceptions in a career – 336 (Brett Favre, 1991 Falcons, 1992-07 Packers, 2008 Jets, 2009-10 Vikings)

There is no way a team ever lets a quarterback stay in a game long enough to throw 9 interceptions, so Jim Hardy’s record is as safe as anything here.

Vinny Testaverde is in second place with 35 interceptions for the 1988 Buccaneers. The only other player since then to throw 30 interceptions was another No. 1 overall pick by the Buccaneers. Jameis Winston had 30 interceptions in 2019 but at least he had 33 touchdowns too. In fact, that gives him the only 30-30 season in NFL history for touchdowns and interceptions, another record we may not see fall.

Brett Favre may not have a lot of records left – we’ll be nicer to him below – but one that should stick is his record of 336 career interceptions. The gunslinger just had too much fun at times out there, and combined with playing forever in an era largely before picks went down, it is no surprise he is far and away the leader here.

Tom Brady threw 12,050 passes, easily more than anyone, and he only had 212 interceptions. Other prolific quarterbacks to come after him rarely throw picks, so you might be able to add the career totals of Aaron Rodgers (105) and Patrick Mahomes (63) together and still not reach Favre’s 336. In fact, they are exactly halfway there with Rodgers’ career winding down.

3. Most Consecutive Wins without Trailing in Fourth Quarter, Including Playoffs: 19 (2010-11 Green Bay Packers)

The Record: Between finishing 6-0 to win the Super Bowl and starting 13-0 in the 2011 season, the 2010-11 Packers won 19 straight games and never trailed in the fourth quarter even once during that streak.

The Runner-Up: You might be shocked at how uncommon this is, because the Packers broke the record held by the 1942-43 Redskins, who went 13 straight wins without trailing in the fourth quarter. The longest streak in the NFL since Green Bay was 11 games by the 2019 Ravens, who then lost wire-to-wire in the playoffs to Tennessee that year.

But that 2010-11 run was special as it is a 19-game winning streak, and that is the second-longest winning streak in NFL history. The only longer streak was 21 games by the 2003-04 Patriots.

But if you look at that streak, it needed so many close wins to survive, including 4 games where the Patriots trailed in the fourth quarter. Those were games 1, 5, 7, and 15 during the 21-game win streak, so the Patriots never went more than 7 straight wins without trailing in the fourth quarter. That’s not even acknowledging the other 4 games the Patriots had to break a tie in to win, including a win in Miami where the Dolphins missed a pair of 35-yard field goals (one in overtime), and the notorious goal-line stand in Indianapolis that started the Manning-Brady rivalry.

Those Packers were just built differently, so my claim as Rodgers being the front-runner extraordinaire was prophetic and justified. It is hard to imagine seeing this record ever fall because the league is just too close and the teams are too inconsistent to not have to pull off a close win for 19 straight games.

Today’s best-winning team, the Chiefs, often find themselves in deficits, including a double-digit one in all four of the Super Bowl appearances under Mahomes. Even if the Chiefs ever went on a 20-game winning streak, you can count on Mahomes having to deliver a few comeback wins in the fourth quarter to keep that alive.

This streak is uniquely perfect for the Packers of that era.

2. Career Receiving Totals: 1,549 Receptions, 22,895 Yards, 197 TD (Jerry Rice)

The Record: Wide receiver Jerry Rice, the GOAT, finished his career with 1,549 receptions, 22,895 receiving yards, and 197 touchdown catches.

The Runners-Up: Larry Fitzgerald finished with 1,432 receptions, 118 shy of Rice. The closest active player is DeAndre Hopkins (928). Fitzgerald also is No. 2 in receiving yards with 17,492, or more than 5,000 yards behind Rice. The closest active player is Julio Jones at 13,703 yards, so he has no shot. Randy Moss, the greatest receiver since Rice, had 156 touchdowns, so Rice cleared him by 41 scores. Davante Adams (95) and Mike Evans (94) are the only active payers with over 90 touchdowns.

Rice’s numbers remain remarkable to look at. In his prime, he was one of the most dominant receivers ever with six receiving yardage titles and six seasons where he had the most touchdown catches, including 22 scores in 12 games in 1987.

That’s the other thing that’s incredible about Rice. He was already 23 when he was a rookie, and he lost up to 4 games in 1987 due to the strike when he was on fire. He was in his physical prime during the early 90s when the league was in an offensive lull period before passing stats went up again in 1994-95. He also had a significant injury in 1997 that led to him only playing in 2 games when he was 35 years old.

But it was Rice’s return from that injury where he really put the distance between himself and the field. After his 36th birthday, Rice added another 465 catches, 5,977 yards, and 39 touchdowns to his totals. The next-closest receivers in yards after turning 36 are Charlie Joiner (2,734) and tight end Tony Gonzalez (1,789).

Rice played 303 games and played until he was 42 years old. Few receivers are going to want to do that, but few ever had the drive like Rice. This is like what Tom Brady did to the passing records in his 40s, but the reason those have a better shot of being broken is that Brady was not dominant in his 20s like Rice was. Rice had an argument as the best young receiver in the Super Bowl era and is definitely the best Grown Ass Man receiver in NFL history.

Move it up to 37 years old and Rice still cleared 5,000 yards after that birthday. Joiner (1,923) and Gonzalez (859) didn’t even have 2,000 yards between them at that point.

The young receivers do have some advantages over Rice. Guys like Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase were 21-year-old rookies. They get to play 17-game seasons, and 18-game seasons may be shortly on the way. They play in an era that favors offense more than Rice grew up in with the 49ers. They may not have the quarterback edge Rice had in going from Joe Montana to Steve Young, but Rice also showed out with any quarterback they put on the field with him.

But those guys like Jefferson and Chase are going to have to stay healthy, and both have already missed several games with injuries. Jefferson has a solid 1,000-yard lead over Rice for yardage through 4 seasons, but he missed 7 games last season or it would be a bigger lead to help cut into that Old Man Rice advantage that Jerry has. The touchdowns may not be there for Chase and Jefferson as well.

The receptions are the record most likely to fall as it’s so easy to complete little screens and drag routes to boost a receiver’s total. The yards and touchdowns are harder, and those are the records Rice should take to his grave and beyond.

1. Most Consecutive Games Started: 297 Regular Season, 321 Including Playoffs (Brett Favre, 1992-2010)

The Record: The NFL’s Ironman streak belongs to quarterback Brett Favre, who started 297 consecutive games in the regular season and 321 games when you include the playoffs (as you should). His streak ended in 2010 shortly before he retired.

The Runner-Up: Defensive end Jim Marshall (1961-79) held the previous record with 270 consecutive starts in the regular season and 289 when you include the playoffs. The longest streak for a quarterback after Favre is 252 total games by Philip Rivers.

Tthis is another record where the changes in the league are just going to make it harder to break. First, the new concussion protocol with an independent neurologist pulling someone out of the game after a big hit to check them for a concussion. We’ve seen this a lot more after the Tua Tagovailoa incidents in 2022. If you get diagnosed with a concussion in the NFL now, chances are you are not playing that next game unless you are Brock Purdy.

But even someone like Purdy has already likely blown his shot at Favre’s record after he sat out the 2023 season finale against the Rams for playoff rest with the No. 1 seed locked up. That’s another issue when it comes to longer seasons. The top quarterbacks will likely rest in Week 18, which ends their streak. Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes both did it this past year. Mahomes hadn’t missed a start to injury since 2019, but twice now we’ve seen him sit out a regular-season finale against the Chargers (2020 and 2023), so that ends his streak each time.

That’s why the longest active start streak at quarterback belongs to Buffalo’s Josh Allen at 98 games. He might be the closest quarterback we have to Favre in this era from a style perspective, but he throws his body around even more than Favre ever did. Do you really see him starting the next 224 games to break Favre’s record? I don’t. In fact, the quarterback position becoming more mobile and having more designed runs and scrambles than ever before could easily lead to more injuries as we’ve already seen. Sacks were at a 25-year high last year too, and a quarter of the league’s starters were lost for the season in 2023.

As for other positions, it’s rarely even desirable to want to play that long at positions that are so physically demanding and taxing on the body. We just saw center Jason Kelce call it a career before his age-37 season, and brother Travis likely won’t be far behind.

Players are also making more money than ever before, so retiring early is more feasible. We’ve seen that already with great players like Patrick Willis, Luke Kuechly, Calvin Johnson, Andrew Luck, and Rob Gronkowski. Get out while you can still walk upright with many millions in your account.

The other thing with so much money on the line, why risk your career for one game? Players of today may be called “soft” by the old heads, but you’re not going to risk your future to play in one game that isn’t a Super Bowl. Players are making smarter business decisions and shutting things down at times when players in the past may have played through the pain just to uphold the tough reputation that is prevalent in football.

But we also see teams making these decisions now too for financial reasons, which is a big reason why Russell Wilson is going to be paid that huge dead cap hit we started talking about 7,800 words ago. The Broncos approached him at midseason about benching him if he didn’t remove his injury guarantees, and he stood his ground, so they benched him for Jarrett Stidham to end the season. If he had a long streak of starts going, that would have ended that.

It is going to take an insane amount of luck, a high pain tolerance, and a deep love for the game to approach Favre’s Ironman streak. Playing on a lot of teams that are not good enough to have the luxury of resting for the playoffs might also help.

But you almost have to have a few screws loose to even want to start this many consecutive games in such a rough sport. Maybe that’s why Favre is the way he is. You never knew what he was going to throw (or text) next.

QB CAROUSEL

Zach Rosenblatt of The Athletic tells us where all the QBs are going to end up by the start of the season:

The quarterback carousel is spinning.

It started Monday, when Russell Wilson was informed he would be released just two years after the Broncos invested a treasure trove of draft picks and $245 million. Suffice to say, that was a disaster. But the Broncos will take another bite out of the quarterback apple this offseason — and they are not alone.

This offseason could involve change at the quarterback position for nearly a dozen teams. Three first-round draft picks from 2021 (Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Mac Jones) will have to find new homes, joining Trey Lance in that remarkably disappointing draft class of quarterbacks. This year’s draft is considered a loaded class at quarterback, with some intriguing veterans also set to hit free agency. Kirk Cousins is at the top of that list, potentially breaking free after six years with the Vikings. His market should be robust, even coming off an Achilles injury.

The legal tampering period for free agency opens Monday at noon ET, so this felt like a good time to look ahead and predict what teams will do at quarterback.

First, let’s handicap the field by figuring out how many jobs are open, which might be open and which teams are already set at starting quarterback.

Locked in, nothing to see here (15)

Josh Allen           Bills

Joe Burrow         Bengals

Jared Goff           Lions

Justin Herbert     Chargers

Jalen Hurts          Eagles

Lamar Jackson    Ravens

Trevor Lawrence Jaguars

Jordan Love        Packers

Patrick Mahomes Chiefs

Dak Prescott        Cowboys

Brock Purdy        49ers

Aaron Rodgers    Jets

Matthew Stafford  Rams

C.J. Stroud           Texans

Tua Tagovailoa     Dolphins

Safe, but with something to prove (3)

Derek Carr            Saints

Kyler Murray          Cardinals

Deshaun Watson    Browns

Young, unaccomplished, but safe (2)

Anthony Richardson  Colts

Bryce Young             Panthers

Young, unaccomplished, but probably safe (1)

Will Levis                   Titans

To be determined (2)

Daniel Jones               Giants

Geno Smith                Seahawks

Open for business (9)

Bears, Broncos, Buccaneers, Commanders, Falcons, Patriots, Raiders, Steelers, Vikings.

Notable options

Let’s run through the starting-caliber — or borderline starting-caliber — quarterbacks who could be available this offseason.

NFL Draft: Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, J.J. McCarthy, Michael Penix Jr., Bo Nix.

Free agency: Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield, Gardner Minshew, Mason Rudolph, Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson, Jacoby Brissett, Joe Flacco, Tyrod Taylor, Jimmy Garoppolo (after he’s released).

Trade: Justin Fields, Mac Jones, Zach Wilson, Sam Howell.

Predictions

So, the table is set. At least nine teams — and maybe 11 — need to figure out their quarterback situation.

Here are my predictions for how that plays out:

Let’s get the easy one out of the way first: Chicago drafts the clear-cut No. 1 prospect in this draft and builds its team around him. There are distractions that come with Williams — we’ve written about them — but the Bears have been looking for a franchise quarterback for decades. They’ll take the noise if he’s good — and The Athletic’s draft expert Dane Brugler wrote that Williams is “truly a unique player with his own style.”

This means, of course, that Fields will be on the way out. I’m not so sure, though, if there’s an obvious fit for him as a no-doubt starter at this point.

Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield

Mayfield should have a robust market if he makes it to free agency since he’s the second-best option behind Cousins after a breakout year (4,044 yards, 28 touchdowns, 10 interceptions). He may even be a target for Minnesota if Cousins leaves. Mayfield made $4 million in 2023 and his next contract will likely exceed $30 million per year. Wide receiver Mike Evans just re-signed for significant money, so clearly the Buccaneers have no plans to rebuild. I think they pay up before Mayfield can hit free agency.

Falcons: Kirk Cousins

Atlanta wants Cousins. From Dianna Russini’s combine report: “They believe Cousins is the type of player who moves them from a fringe playoff team to a contender. New Atlanta head coach Raheem Morris and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson both have familiarity with Cousins.” The Falcons have an impatient owner who wants to win now. Their first target will be Cousins, who seems to be recovering well coming off Achilles surgery and would be jumping into an offense with a young, exciting group of weapons (Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts).

Vikings: Sam Darnold and Zach Wilson

Let’s get wild. If the Vikings lose Cousins, their top target will be Mayfield. But if Mayfield doesn’t hit free agency, Minnesota might try to take a flier on a young option with some upside. Darnold has never been in particularly winning situations as a starter but no one has ever questioned his arm talent. After a year in Kyle Shanahan’s system, he might be ready for another shot at starting — though it’s possible Justin Jefferson (desiring a new contract) would not be thrilled with this arrangement.

In 2021, some with the Jets wanted to keep Darnold and draft Wilson and now the Vikings have the chance to play out that dream. Wilson is on his way out in New York but in the right environment, with the right coaching, he still has the talent to, at worst, be a high-end backup. Minnesota is a good fit.

Broncos: Sam Howell

Denver is in a tough spot fresh off the Russell Wilson disaster. The Broncos have limited cap flexibility and not a lot of appeal for a top free agent like Cousins. Their draft capital is also somewhat limited from various trades — they don’t own a second-round pick — and they’re picking 12th, just out of range for the top quarterback prospects unless J.J. McCarthy falls or they love Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr.

There was some buzz in Indianapolis that they are intrigued by the idea of adding a young quarterback via trade. Howell (3,946 yards, 21 touchdowns, 21 interceptions in 2023) would be an interesting target, free of the mess in Washington. A third- or fourth-round pick should do the trick.

Commanders: Drake Maye

Jayden Daniels would not surprise me at No. 2 either but I’m predicting the North Carolina star for now. If the Vikings lose Cousins and were willing to trade up from No. 11 to No. 2 or No. 3, I like them as a destination, too, especially since new quarterbacks coach Josh McCown actually coached Maye in high school. But Maye is a perfect quarterback for the new regime in Washington to build around. Brugler compared him to Justin Herbert.

Raiders: Jayden Daniels

It would take a lot for the Raiders to jump all the way from No. 13 to No. 2 or No. 3 and get Daniels, but I think they will be willing to do it to get their guy at quarterback. And it would not be a stretch to say Daniels is their guy. Raiders coach Antonio Pierce recruited him to Arizona State and they have a close relationship. Also, Las Vegas appears committed to finding a significant upgrade at quarterback. Maybe the Raiders pursue Cousins, but I think Daniels will ultimately be their target. The Heisman winner would bring some excitement to Sin City: He accounted for 90 plays of 20-plus yards in 2023, per Brugler, who wrote that Daniels “forces opponents to defend him like Lamar Jackson.”

Patriots: Jacoby Brissett and Bo Nix

In this scenario, the Raiders would have traded up with the Patriots at No. 3. There’s some buzz that de facto Patriots general manager Eliot Wolf wants to accumulate draft capital and build up the roster — it’s a bad roster — so trading down and picking up a bunch of picks in the present and future wouldn’t be a bad idea.

Brissett signing on as a stopgap with the team that drafted him would be smart — Brissett will be in high demand as a No. 2, including for the Jets, but this is a starting opportunity. It still would allow the Patriots to take a flier on the next tier of quarterbacks either later in the first round (like McCarthy, if he falls) or in later rounds on someone like Penix or Nix. I went with Nix, who’s ranked 37th on Brugler’s draft big board. He wrote that Nix “has a good arm, understands where to go with the football, and his scrambling can give defenses fits.”

Steelers: Kenny Pickett and Ryan Tannehill

The Steelers are telling everyone who will listen that they want to run it back with Pickett and Mason Rudolph. (Exciting!) But it’s also lying season and Pittsburgh just hired Arthur Smith as its offensive coordinator, so a marriage with Tannehill makes a lot of sense. He’s 35 and not the same player anymore, but he can still be an OK starter and at least push Pickett — who is probably the Steelers’ preferred starter if he can finally live up to his first-round billing. Maybe they still bring back Rudolph, too, and have a free-for-all quarterback competition.

Seahawks: Geno Smith and Michael Penix Jr.

Smith is a perfectly fine starting quarterback who has proven he belongs the last two years, but he’s also clearly not Seattle’s quarterback of the future. I think bringing Smith back and adding some competition — ideally someone young — is the right move for a new coaching regime. Penix going back to Seattle after a stellar two-year career at the University of Washington would be a fun outcome, too. He impressed at Senior Bowl and at the NFL combine and I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if he snuck into the first round at this point. The Seahawks pick 16th, which is probably too early for Penix, but they can trade back or trade back into the second round with their two third-round picks.

Giants: Daniel Jones and J.J. McCarthy

The Giants pick at No. 6 and indications are that general manager Joe Schoen is ready and willing to trade up and get one of the top prospects if possible. So keep an eye on them as a potential partner with the Patriots. If that doesn’t get done, the Giants will have to decide if McCarthy is good enough to go sixth overall or if that’s too early. They faced a similar dilemma with Jones, ironically, in 2019 when they picked him sixth even though most graded him worse than that. (Dave Gettleman, folks.)

McCarthy, though, is a proven winner and has the intangibles to be a successful NFL quarterback, even if he’s not a perfect prospect. Brugler writes: “McCarthy executed when his team needed a play, which often came on third or fourth down. He has the arm and athletic talent that will translate well to the pro game, and his intangibles are off the charts.”

Other QB predictions

• Browns trade for Justin Fields to back up Deshaun Watson. It makes so much sense if Fields isn’t traded somewhere to start, especially since Watson has underperformed and been injured since joining Cleveland.

• Colts sign Russell Wilson to back up Anthony Richardson. Wilson’s numbers were solid last season in Denver before he got benched but his stock around the league has taken a nose dive. He might have to accept a backup job, or go somewhere he’d have to compete to start.

• Lions sign Jared Goff to an extension.

• Mac Jones gets traded for a late-round pick.

• Jets sign Gardner Minshew to back up Aaron Rodgers.

• Joe Flacco signs with the Rams to back up Matthew Stafford.

• Eagles sign Tyrod Taylor to back up Jalen Hurts.

• Raiders release Jimmy Garoppolo. He signs with the Texans to back up C.J. Stroud.