The Daily Briefing Friday, May 1, 2020
AROUND THE NFLDaily Briefing |
The NFL has deemed travel to the nation-state of California non-essential. Lakisha Wesseling of NFL.com:
While several teams conduct their offseason program virtually due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it comes as no surprise that the NFL has made changes to its Spring League Meeting.
The meeting, originally scheduled May 19-20 in the Los Angeles area, will now be held virtually, NFL Network’s Judy Battista reported Thursday.
The NFL released the following statement:
“We continue to closely monitor the conditions relating to COVID-19, and, based on the latest medical and public health information, believe that changing to a virtual meeting is in everyone’s best interests.”
The changes come a week after the 2020 NFL Draft was conducted entirely remotely as team facilities remain closed in accordance with federal, state and local laws surrounding COVID-19.
The Annual League Meeting scheduled for March 29- April 1 was cancelled so rule changes and other football matters that were supposed to be discussed and voted upon then will now be done virtually at the May meeting. |
NFC NORTH |
CHICAGO Bears GM Ryan Pace does not have the greatest streak going with quarterbacks. He signed QB MIKE GLENNON to be the starter in 2017, paying him $18 million for very little production. That is because later in that spring, he traded up one spot to draft QB MITCHELL TRUBISKY who had impressed in one year as a starter at North Carolina (stuck behind a QB who wasn’t drafted). Trubisky has been at best borderline, a tease who sometimes looks almost good enough. Now, critics are adding another line to the case against Pace. This tweet from Dave Richard: @daverichard Panthers couldn’t trade Cam. Bengals couldn’t trade Dalton. Bears gave up a 4th for Foles. And this from Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com: The Bears traded for Nick Foles last month in a move that may have signaled the beginning of the end of Mitch Trubisky’s run as the team’s quarterback.
If Trubisky is on his way out in Chicago, there will be some discussion about the need to think about the long-term future of the position. The Bears didn’t jumpstart that discussion by taking a quarterback during the draft. General Manager Ryan Pace said the team wasn’t opposed to doing that, but things just didn’t break that way.
“It just has to align for us,” Pace said, via the Chicago Tribune. “Every draft, different positions, there are strengths and weaknesses. But for us to take any position, it just has to align for us the right way. So sometimes there’s players we like at that position, and the board doesn’t fall that way for us. That’s what happened for this draft, and we’re OK with it because we came away with seven players that we’re really excited about.”
The Bears slipped from 12-4 to 8-8 last season and another downward turn might jeopardize the futures of Pace and head coach Matt Nagy, which may have also been a factor in prioritizing players who could help now over those who could help down the road. – – – Another year, another team for veteran WR TED GINN, Jr. Nick Shook of NFL.comreports that the Bears could/should be his 6th team: Ted Ginn made it public recently he still wanted to play football, and now he’s found a place to do it.
Ginn has agreed to terms on a one-year deal with the Chicago Bears, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported.
The 35-year-old appeared in 16 games for the Saints in 2019, catching 30 passes for 421 yards and two touchdowns in his 13th NFL season. A former first-round pick of the Dolphins, Ginn never lived up to that expectation but has grinded out quite a career for himself with Miami, San Francisco, Carolina, Arizona and New Orleans. Now, he continues his tour of the NFC by moving north to Chicago.
It’s been a while since Ginn played for a team in a cold-weather city, but it shouldn’t be too unfamiliar. Ginn, a Cleveland native, played his high school ball for his father, Ted Ginn Sr., at Glenville High School before starring in college as a speedster wideout at Ohio State.
He’ll bring to Chicago the deep threat element the Bears lacked, managing to still outrun defenders despite Father Time approaching ever closer. We’ll see if he can make a difference for the Bears, who very well could be sending Nick Foles out to throw passes to Ginn and others in 2020. |
GREEN BAY Some more thoughts on QB AARON RODGERS, first more from Brett Favre who may be a messenger for Rodgers. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com: Favre remained careful not to share many details about their discussion, but it’s hard not to conclude that Favre’s opinions on the subject were shaped by his conversation with Rodgers. And from that conversation came a key theme: Disrespect.
“To me, the word ‘disrespect’ I think is perfect,” Favre said. “That’s the message that it sends to Aaron.”
Favre explained that the Packers didn’t take a can’t-miss prospect who slid into their laps, like Rodgers did in 2005. Instead, the Packers traded up to take a chance on an unproven player who will do nothing to help the Packers take the next step beyond the NFC Championship.
“Isn’t it about winning now?” Favre said. “That pick says, ‘No.’”
In his appearance on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Favre also expressed surprise that the Packers didn’t follow the selection of Jordan Love by drafting a receiver, acknowledging “that would make [Rodgers] feel a little better about it.” So what’s the overall message from the Packers to Rodgers, as Favre sees it?
“Aaron, you’re on your own, buddy,” Favre said. “You and Davante Adams.”
Aaron’s on his own in a different way, as Favre sees it. Comparing the current situation to Favre’s final years in Green Bay, Favre said it’s easy for the player to conclude that the world has changed around him so much that there’s no longer a place for him in it.
“Aaron, do you ever look around and say, ‘I feel like the odd man out?’” Favre said. “And he said, ‘Yeah.’”
That pretty much says it all. Rodgers’ career currently has a two-year shelf life in Green Bay, due to the cap hit associated with trading him. It’s also possible, depending on how the 2020 season goes, that the Packers will arrange for a post-June 1 trade in 2021, allowing the cap hit to be spread over two years.
Until then, it will be awkward, to say the least. And it could get more awkward based upon the things said by and to Rodgers in the coming weeks and months. This from Mike Sando of The Athletic and his army of insiders willing to dish anonymously. The time will come to determine whether Utah State quarterback Jordan Love was worth selecting in the first round of the 2020 draft. Right now, the move is all about that other quarterback in Green Bay, the one with 364 touchdown passes, 84 interceptions and a Super Bowl ring. The Packers signed Aaron Rodgers to a market-setting contract extension 20 months ago and are coming off a 13-3 season that ended in the NFC Championship Game. Now, they are looking at their watches, counting down the day until the next guy takes over. It’s an awkward situation that, despite some superficial similarities, differs fundamentally from the time 15 years ago when the Packers made Rodgers their first-round pick while Brett Favre was Green Bay’s future Hall of Fame starter.
This is largely unexplored wilderness.
“The only outcome that makes sense is that Love is the starter by no later than the first game of his third year,” a veteran NFL team executive said. “If he is already gone or never starts, that is a terrible outcome. What is the outcome that the Packers are expecting? And the outcome that they are expecting, in my estimation, is that in two years they are going to move on from Aaron, and it might be next year, depending on how things go this year.”
The implication of Love’s signing on Rodgers’ situation stands unchallenged as the most compelling storyline from this draft’s first round, a move that has execs around the league buzzing about the potential implications. Their most interesting takeaways form the foundation of a discussion that has the potential to define this Packers’ season.
Fundamentally different from 2005 When the Packers drafted Rodgers, Favre had openly talked about retirement, having announced his intention to return for the 2005 season in March. His long-term intentions were not known. Rodgers was seen as a top-five talent who had fallen to the Packers unexpectedly. Green Bay entered that draft with the 24th overall pick and selected Rodgers when he became available in that slot.
That is not what happened Thursday night.
Rodgers, 36, has openly talked about playing indefinitely into his 40s. He has openly talked about how much he’d love to see the Packers draft offensive skill players to help the team win now. Love was seen as a borderline first-round talent. Instead of waiting for Love to fall to them, the Packers traded up from the 30th slot into the 26th slot to take him there.
“The idea that they drafted Rodgers in a similar fashion is a joke,” an exec said. “They were seriously concerned that ’05 might be the last year for Brett as the starter and even then they didn’t jump on Aaron. How long do they think Rodgers is going to play? In general, when you draft a quarterback in the bottom half of the first round, you are playing them in their third year. Nobody sits any more for three years.”
Rodgers did, but he was the exception.
Teams have selected 41 quarterbacks in the first round since Rodgers’ selection with the 24th choice in 2005. Forty of them were named their teams’ starter within two seasons. (That includes Jason Campbell, who went one spot after Rodgers in the ’05 draft). The only one who never became the starter was Denver’s Paxton Lynch.
“Does that mean that when they took Rodgers, they planned to sit him for three years?” the exec said. “Absolutely not. Brett had become higher maintenance, which was a big part of the problem, and maybe the current Packer regime sees a different type of prima donna with Aaron, that he is not enough of a team guy in public, that he is too willing to call out guys and he doesn’t say the right things, whereas with Favre it was, ‘Yeah, I just don’t know what I want to do and I am going to keep this organization on hold while I figure it out.’”
A Rodgers trade seems plausible Teams drafted 70 first-round quarterbacks from the free agency era in 1993 through 2019. Sixty-four of those quarterbacks (91 percent) were named their teams’ starters in their first or second seasons. Focusing more specifically on the Packers, teams drafted 13 first-round quarterbacks after the 20th overall selection during that 1993-2019 timeframe. Ten of the 13 quarterbacks were named starters in their first two seasons. Two were never named starters (Lynch, Jim Druckenmiller). Rodgers was the outlier. He sat three seasons, becoming the starter in 2008. Most of those other teams did not have highly paid future Hall of Fame starters planning to play indefinitely.
“Here is what I’m struggling with now,” another exec said. “You take Love, you have Rodgers, you do not want Love to start right away. But he can’t be there in the fifth year because you are going to pay him the option number, so he has to take over the fourth year, right? Which means he’s really got to take over after the third year, so you are telling Aaron Rodgers he’s got three years left? I don’t mind the move. I would have waited a year or two.”
In 1992, one year before free agency came to the NFL, the Broncos used a first-round pick for Tommy Maddox when they still had John Elway. Maddox never won the job. Denver traded him to the Rams in 1994, getting a fourth-round pick in return.
Rodgers, 36, signed an extension worth $33.5 million per year in August 2018. The thinking then focused on whether Rodgers could follow the lead of Tom Brady and Drew Brees by playing into his 40s in an era when rules protect quarterbacks like never before and older athletes are maintaining peak performance. Now, the salary cap implications for trading or releasing Rodgers over the next couple years seem more relevant.
“Had they not paid Rodgers, it would be understandable,” another exec said. “It is just hard to understand why less than two years ago they felt the need to give this guy all this money when you knew at his age it would probably be cheaper just to tag him.”
The Packers could recoup large cash savings in addition to savings under the salary cap if they traded or released Rodgers any time after the 2020 season. Rodgers’ extension runs through the 2023 season, when he will turn 40.
“Can you trade him? I would not rule it out after this season,” another exec said. “I think they will put up with potential problems in 2020, especially now that there may be a whole bunch of weird things happening this year, and they can see how Aaron responds and if they have to ship him out, they have to ship him out. If you look at history, when is the latest that Jordan Love is going to be the starting quarterback for the Packers? I think it is 2022.”
Implications in the locker room and beyond The Packers promoted Brian Gutekunst to general manager in January 2018. They gave Rodgers his extension seven months later. They fired coach Mike McCarthy four months after that, then hired Matt LaFleur as head coach in January 2019.
Rodgers faced questions following McCarthy’s firing about whether he helped orchestrated it, putting his relationship with LaFleur in the spotlight through training camp and into the season. Rodgers has repeatedly praised Gutekunst for taking a more aggressive approach to free agency, the implication being that there was a push to win now, while Rodgers was still viable. There is no “win now” feel to selecting Love in the first round on the same day Rodgers told interviewers that he hoped the team would bolster its offensive weaponry.
@mattschneidman Aaron Rodgers on @PatMcAfeeShow: “We haven’t picked a skill player in the first round in 15 years, so that would be kind of cool.”
Rodgers says whoever the pick is, he’ll track down his phone number and welcome him to the team tonight — if the Packers don’t trade out.
“They could be playing a dangerous game with the locker room,” an exec said. “We’ve seen a handful of players who have criticized Aaron after they left. When you undercut him like this, maybe he doesn’t want to be there and he starts acting in ways that are even worse than what you see so far. The ball is in his court.”
This offseason has largely been about the disruption of longstanding relationships between accomplished franchise quarterbacks and their employers. The Chargers dumped Philip Rivers after Eli Manning retired from the Giants. The Patriots and Tom Brady parted ways. Rodgers now must confront his own staying power with the Packers in a manner that seemed less immediate before Thursday. Meanwhile, the Saints keep doing all they can to prop open their championship window with Drew Brees.
“Green Bay has had a top-tier quarterback for so long that they are just like, ‘Well, we will do like we always do in Green Bay, and just get another one,’ ” another exec said. “You’d better be very careful. I am not saying they should call Aaron Rodgers in and discuss with him their draft plan. I just think you need to be very careful how you manage and preserve and maintain a Hall of Fame quarterback like New Orleans has, like New England did for a long time, like Indy did, like them all.”
Any notion that Rodgers is running the Packers or even strongly influencing their decisions evaporated with one selection in the 2020 draft.
“You send a message to him and he is not that guy who just takes that message well, who says he needs to work harder and be a better guy,” another exec said. “This has the potential to ignite the whole situation where he could become more outspoken and it could just hasten the end of the relationship.” And this tweet from Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com: @MichaelDavSmith Imagine how much better shape the Packers would be in if they’d just forced Rodgers to play out his contract rather than giving him that huge raise when he still had two years left on his old deal. Rodgers was due to play 2018 and 2019 for around $20 million per. Instead, prior to the 2018 season, he signed an extension through 2024 that included a $57.5 million signing bonus and other guaranteed money. |
NFC EAST |
WASHINGTON The Redskins have declined the fifth-year option on former 49ers first rounder, LB REUBEN FOSTER. Adam Maya of NFL.com: Reuben Foster will hit the open market next year. Of course, he first needs to get healthy and back on the field.
The Redskins declined Foster’s fifth-year option, NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo reported. The embattled linebacker has yet to play for Washington, which signed him in November of 2018 immediately after he was cut by the 49ers.
Foster, taken No. 31 overall in 2017, appeared in 16 games for San Francisco before being released following a series of off-field incidents. He was placed on the Reserve/Commissioner Exempt List and then claimed off waivers by the Redskins.
The Alabama product was reinstated to Washington’s active roster last April, only to suffer a torn ACL in his first practice with the team in May. Picking up his option would have guaranteed his salary for the 2021 season. Garafolo added the Redskins haven’t closed the door on Foster’s long-term status. There’s still just a lot for him to prove on and off the field before he earns a second contract. |
NFC SOUTH |
NEW ORLEANS The Saints are excited to have landed a QB late in the draft – even with JAMEIS WINSTON coming on board. Mike Triplett of ESPN.com: The rivalry between the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers extended into the late seventh round of this year’s NFL draft.
Coach Sean Payton gave a behind-the-scenes breakdown to The Athletic of how the Saints decided to swoop in and draft quarterback/flex player Tommy Stevens before he had the chance to sign with Carolina as an undrafted free agent.
“There’s no way I was going to lose this kid,” Payton said of the former Mississippi State and Penn State quarterback who was often compared to the Saints’ versatile Taysom Hill leading up to the draft.
“We know the role. We invented the role.”
The Saints originally did not have a seventh-round pick. In fact, they didn’t have any picks in Rounds 4-7 after trading up to select Dayton tight end Adam Trautman at the end of Round 3.
So they spent most of their Saturday trying to identify and recruit the undrafted rookies they wanted to sign. Stevens was high on their priority list. He became even more of a priority once they found out Stevens had agreed to join the Panthers if he wasn’t drafted.
Stevens had previously worked with new Panthers offensive coordinator Joe Brady when Brady was a graduate assistant at Penn State. And Brady, of course, used to work as an offensive assistant with the Saints — which added to the intrigue of this bidding war.
“It became my project,” said Payton, who said the Saints first offered to match Carolina’s offer (a $15,000 signing bonus and $30,000 of Stevens’ salary guaranteed).
Then Payton said the Saints tried upping the offer to $144,000 of the salary guaranteed. But Stevens and agent Buddy Baker didn’t budge because Stevens wanted to honor his commitment to Carolina.
So the Saints decided to outflank the Panthers by trading their 2021 sixth-round pick to the Houston Texans for a seventh-rounder this year. They took Stevens with the 240th overall pick.
According to Payton, he sent one text to Brady that said, “Not so fast,” and another to Stevens and Baker that said, “I’m tired of asking. Now, I’m taking.”
“There’s a little bit of competitive juices flying between me and Sean about, ‘We want this player. And we’re not gonna let anybody take him from us. We’re gonna take him from them,'” Saints assistant general manager/college scouting director Jeff Ireland said on the team’s daily podcast. Payton said he understood why Stevens wanted to honor his commitment to Carolina.
“I said, ‘Honestly, I was having some fun,'” Payton said. “‘You had given your word and I respect that. But we weren’t going to lose you. You were going to become a Saint.'”
After the draft, Payton explained that the Saints see Stevens as both a developmental QB and someone they could use as a tight end or on special teams, much like they have used Hill in recent years.
The 6-foot-5, 235-pounder threw for 1,155 yards, 11 touchdowns and five interceptions during an injury-riddled season as a graduate transfer with Mississippi State last year. He ran for 381 yards and four TDs. A big reason that Winston signed with the Saints was his pre-existing relationship with QB DREW BREES. Mike Triplett again: Jameis Winston has proudly boasted for years that he was the first kid to get an autograph from Drew Brees after Brees joined the New Orleans Saints in 2006. Winston, who had just turned 12, grew up near Birmingham, Alabama, where Brees was rehabbing from shoulder surgery at the time.
Winston, 26, admitted Wednesday that he lost that autographed picture. But now the quarterback will get an even better experience: learning from Brees firsthand after signing a one-year deal with the Saints.
“There’s only a few people in this league that actually follow up with you when you ask them a question, when you reach out to them,” said Winston, who said he also got the chance to spend time with Brees at the Rock Church in San Diego before being drafted No. 1 overall in 2015. “And ever since then, he’s always been a guy that I can hit up during the season and ask a question, and he’ll get back with me.
“So I just love the person that he is and the guy that he is, and I’m so excited to learn from him and help serve him in any way.”
Without naming any specific teams, Winston said he did have other opportunities that might have paid him more money or given him a better chance to start. His deal with the Saints is worth $1.1 million, with another $3.4 million in available incentives, a source told ESPN’s Field Yates.
Winston said he took this opportunity to work with Brees, coach Sean Payton and others “in a heartbeat.” There was a time not long ago when Winston was sniffing around for $30 mil per year and $20 mil seemed to be his floor. Now, he’s schedule to make less in 2020 than both of the non-descript QBs who were rostered behind him last year in Tampa Bay. John Sigler of MSN.com: The New Orleans Saints signed ex-Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston to a one-year contract paying out just $1.1 million in 2020, a shocking discount for the former first-overall pick who started five years in the NFL.
How does that salary compare to his peers? Well, per Over The Cap, 60 different passers are expected to draw a higher average annual salary this year. That includes both of Winston’s backups with Tampa Bay last year in Ryan Griffin ($1.45 million) and Blaine Gabbert ($1.187 million).
Sure, Winston can surpass both of them thanks to the $3.4 million by hitting incentives written into his contract for playtime and performance. But that would require extensive absences from both Drew Brees and Taysom Hill, and he’s not likely to pass those milestones unless a series of injuries strikes the Saints quarterbacks room.
Winston’s deal with the Saints looks like an even stronger bargain when you survey other backup salaries around the league. Marcus Mariota, drafted just behind him back in 2015, is earning $8.8 million per year from the Las Vegas Raiders. The Chicago Bears traded for the right to pay Nick Foles $8 million as their backup. Former Saints high-five artist Chase Daniel is earning an easy $4.35 million from the Detroit Lions this year (good for him!). |
AFC WEST |
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS The Chargers have exercised their fifth year option on WR MIKE WILLIAMS. The 7thoverall pick in 2017, Williams is still looking for his first 50-catch season, but not his first 1,000-yard campaign. Last year, he had the odd line of 49-1,001-2 TDs. A 20.4 yard average per catch, but could only take 2 to the house. |
AFC NORTH |
CINCINNATI Field Yates reminds us that QB ANDY DALTON did more good things than you think as QB of the Bengals.
@FieldYates Andy Dalton finishes his Bengals leader as the all-time leader in passing TD (204), 2nd in passing yards (31,594), most 4th quarter comebacks (20) and game-winning drives (24), three Pro Bowl nods and helped dig them out of the dumps to five playoff appearances. Really solid run. |
AFC EAST |
MIAMI It was No Taco Thursday in Miami. Cameron Wolfe of ESPN.com: The Miami Dolphins waived defensive end Taco Charlton on Thursday.
Charlton, a 2017 first-round pick of the Dallas Cowboys, was claimed by the Dolphins last September after being cut by his former team. He made some splash plays in Miami, including a team-high five sacks, but he didn’t show much consistency. He also didn’t fit what coach Brian Flores wants in his players as he continues to mold the team.
The writing was on the wall for Charlton when he was a healthy inactive for the Dolphins’ last two games and three of their final four games of the 2019 season.
The Dolphins are in the midst of overhauling their front-seven by adding versatile, tough defenders such as Shaq Lawson, Kyle Van Noy, Emmanuel Ogbah, Raekwon Davis, Jason Strowbridge and Curtis Weaver via free agency and the draft. Flores prioritizes physicality, toughness and character in his players — and that’s what this offseason’s moves are geared toward.
Charlton was due a decision on whether his $1.83 million, fifth-year option would be exercised by Monday’s deadline. The Dolphins gave a definitive answer by simply letting him go Thursday, saving the team $1.37 million in salary cap space. |
THIS AND THAT |
BROADCAST NEWS Monday Night Football has yet to announce its talent, but it does have a new producer. Mike Dean of ProFootballTalk.com: ESPN has filled the top behind-the-scenes job at Monday Night Football. Now, ESPN needs to figure out who will be in front of the cameras.
According to John Ourand of Sports Business Daily, Phil Dean will produce the prime-time game, replacing Jay Rothman, whose departure was first reported in early January.
Dean, an ESPN employee since 1992, produced college football games with Sean McDonough and Todd Blackledge in the booth.
“We were pretty set on staying internal,” ESPN executive Stephanie Druley told Ourand. “He’s been one of our top producers for a long time. He loves football. He lives and breathes it.”
Joe Tessitore and Booger McFarland handled the booth duties in 2019, after McFarland moved from a mobile sideline position to replace Jason Witten. It’s been regarded as a given that Tessitore and McFarland will be out this season. Efforts to hire an A-list analyst, however, have failed.
If there’s no fall college football season in 2020, ESPN could move Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit into the job. One thing is clear: Dean most likely won’t be bringing McDonough with him. With Charles Davis at CBS, FOX has its number two analyst job to fill. As mentioned in the paragraph above for ESPN, Joel Klatt could be a contender there if college football is delayed. |
2020 DRAFT Andrew Berry of ESPN.com gives us his opinion on who benefited after the dust had settled in term of Fantasy Football: This edition of “Love/Hate” is based entirely on the NFL draft and which players’ fantasy stock went up (“love”) or went down (“hate”) based on how the draft went for their team.
Let’s get to it.
Quarterbacks I love after the 2020 NFL draft
Dak Prescott, Cowboys: The third-best QB in fantasy last year had the second-most passing yards, deep completions and games with 20-plus fantasy points. And he just added CeeDee Lamb (6-foot-2, 198 pounds, 4.5 40 time), who averaged 21.4 yards per reception in 2019, third most in the FBS. Lamb’s 31 forced missed tackles as a pass-catcher were more than any other FBS wide receiver, and he should be a big improvement over Randall Cobb and Jason Witten in the middle of the field. Lamb’s big-play ability (11.1 yards after catch per reception last year was sixth most among WRs in FBS) along with established playmakers Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup and a strong running game to keep defenses honest has Dak locked into my top 3 at QB this year.
Tom Brady, Buccaneers: I was already a big fan of Brady this year to throw to a great group of receivers when he went to the offense that was sixth in pass percentage last season. The only question was his protection. But then the Bucs drafted highly regarded Outland Trophy finalist Tristan Wirfs (6-foot-5, 322 pounds) to shore up the offensive line. Adding Rob Gronkowski wasn’t a draft-day move, but it happened a few days beforehand, so I’m gonna count it. Then the Bucs drafted talented running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn (more on him later) and 6-foot-1, 206-pound Tyler Johnson for wide receiver depth (Johnson was tied for first in red zone catches last year in Division I) and, yeah … here for all the TB puns. Easy top-10 QB for me this year.
Joe Burrow, Bengals: Much more appealing as a dynasty pick than a re-draft one, don’t be surprised if Burrow has immediate 2QB/Superflex league appeal and is in the weekly streaming discussion come the second half of the season. Burrow comes into an offense that was top 7 in the NFL in pass attempts per game, pass percentage and red zone pass percentage last season. Four of the past five QBs to be drafted No. 1 overall finished their rookie year as a top-16 QB in fantasy points, and with a receiving corps of A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, newly drafted Tee Higgins (more on him later), John Ross III, Auden Tate and good pass-catching running backs Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard, Burrow has way better weapons than most top-picked quarterbacks usually get.
Drew Lock, Broncos: This is more for his dynasty stock than anything, as it’s unlikely Lock contributes this year other than in deep or 2QB leagues; but man, is his dynasty future much brighter! Adding Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy (44 receptions of at least 20 yards over the past two seasons, second most in FBS), speedster KJ Hamler and 6-foot-5, 250-pound tight end Albert Okwuegbunam, Lock’s former teammate at Missouri, are all steps in the right direction. Add those guys to a depth chart already featuring Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant and new running back Melvin Gordon and suddenly Lock has the keys to a much-improved offense.
Quarterbacks I hate after the 2020 NFL draft
Aaron Rodgers, Packers: Last year’s QB13 on a points-per-game basis comes into 2020 off a season when he had the lowest fantasy point total of any in his career in which he played at least 15 games. In fact, Rodgers was held to fewer than 15 fantasy points in 10 of 16 games last year, and he had his lowest completion percentage since 2015 and his third-lowest completion percentage on deep passes. So to help out their franchise QB, the pass-catchers that the Packers selected were (checks notes) … third-round tight end Josiah Deguara. That’s it. That’s the list. OK then.
Tyrod Taylor, Chargers: Seemingly having the starting job to himself once Philip Rivers left town, Taylor was on track to be a sneaky fantasy sleeper this year….Whether it’s Week 1 or later, at some point, Herbert is gonna start.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dolphins: You can laugh, but unless you had him on your roster last year, you don’t realize how good Fitzmagic was down the stretch. The fourth (fourth!) best QB in fantasy from Week 9 to 17 last season, Fitzy won a lot of people their leagues in Week 16 when he had 31.7 points against Cincy in a wild, high-scoring game Anyway, I realize there are injury concerns, but Miami drafted Tua Tagovailoa fifth overall. He’s gonna start this year at some point. Since 2010, there have been 30 QBs taken in the first round, and 26 of them have started at least four games their rookie year. And all 13 of the QBs drafted in the top five overall since 2010 have played at least four games. Tagovailoa will start at some point, and when he does, so much for underrated fantasy asset Fitzpatrick.
Running backs I love after the 2020 NFL draft
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs: Wait. So the only player in SEC history with 1,000-plus rushing yards and 50-plus receptions in a single season just got drafted by … Andy Reid and the Chiefs? BE STILL MY BEATING HEART! Apologies in advance for how much I’m going to hype this guy this summer. There is a very real chance CEH has to get a restraining order on me at some point in 2020.
Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman, 49ers: It’s very simple. The team that was third in rush percentage last year and fifth in red zone rush percentage did two important things during the draft: They traded for left tackle Trent Williams and traded away Matt Breida, without adding running backs to the depth chart. Don’t get me started on Bruce Allen killing Williams’ value so much that my Skins could only get a fifth-rounder and a future third-rounder for him, so I’ll just say this: We will see what happens with Jerick McKinnon, but for now, my expectation is that both Mostert and Coleman will have nice value this year. In Kyle Shanahan’s first three years as head coach of the Niners, only four times in 48 games did one RB get 20-plus carries in a game. So both Mostert and Coleman will see time — and the 49ers run so much and so effectively that they can support two solid fantasy running backs.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Buccaneers: Ultimately, this all comes down to Tom. If Tom doesn’t trust him, he ain’t playing. But man, is Vaughn going to get an opportunity. Vaughn enjoyed multiple 1,000-yard rushing seasons at Vanderbilt, and he was third on the team in receptions last year as well. Bruce Arians was asked in his post-draft news conference, “Back at the combine, you said you were looking for a David Johnson-type of pass-catching running back. Did you find that guy?” Arians answered: “Ke’Shawn Vaughn is a guy who can play every down.” Later in the response, Arians mentioned seventh-round RB Raymond Calais and said he could see Calais having a “Tarik Cohen-type role” in which the rookie runs but also catches passes. Arians described Calais more than once as a “joystick”-type player and mentioned a potential kick-return role as well. Remember, Arians inherited Ronald Jones II, and now it sounds as if he just drafted the players he wants to play the primary and secondary roles in his defense. There’s a chance it’s all coachspeak, and again, it really just comes down to whom TB12 wants to hand the ball off, but Vaughn is gonna have a chance at a significant role in a Brady/Arians offense, and I am very willing to spend a midround draft pick to see if that materializes.
Jonathan Taylor, Colts: Darren McFadden. Ricky Williams. And Jonathan Taylor. The only running backs in history to win the Doak Walker Award twice. Taylor is 5-foot-10 and 226 pounds, and his 4.39 40 was the third-fastest 40 by a RB listed as at least 225 pounds in the past 15 years. He is powerful, and now he gets to run behind one of the best offensive lines in football.
Running backs I hate after the 2020 NFL draft
Damien Williams, Chiefs: Is there a more “what have you done for me lately?” business than the NFL? Damn, man. Not three months after winning the Chiefs the Super Bowl (he should have been the game’s MVP), Williams has gone from the starting running back on the best offense in football to hoping he can carve out some sort of role before becoming a free agent in 2021. Whatever his value winds up being this year, it took a massive hit when K.C. took Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Marlon Mack, Colts: Similar to Williams, this is not a matter of if but when Jonathan Taylor makes the lead job his.
Kerryon Johnson and D’Andre Swift, Lions: Oh, good. A running back by committee situation. On a team that doesn’t run.
Devin Singletary, Bills: I am a huge Singletary fan and literally just drafted him last week in a dynasty startup. Oops. The concern here is scoring. Josh Allen was already a concern given that he actually had more red zone carries and goal-to-go carries last year than Singletary, leading to Allen scoring nine of Buffalo’s 13 rushing touchdowns last season. However, with Frank Gore gone, I had Singletary penciled in for a breakthrough year. But then Buffalo drafts Zack Moss. Tough to tackle, Moss’ 41 scrimmage touchdowns (most in Utah history) — along with Allen’s red zone abilities — should tell you there’s a chance Singletary’s scoring opportunities from in close might once again be scarce this year.
Aaron Jones, Packers: OK, so I could never hate Aaron Jones. But I hate that once again, we’ve got to fire up the ol’ #FreeAaronJones. Say this for Matt LaFleur: He might not have gotten Aaron Rodgers a real pass-catcher in the draft, but he stayed true to his word from the combine, where he mentioned that not only did he expect to use both Jones and Jamaal Williams this year, but “he’d like to add a third.” Add a third Green Bay did, with 6-foot, 250-pound AJ Dillon, a bruising back whose 38 career rushing touchdowns are the fourth most in ACC history. We already expected Jones to have some touchdown regression from the 19 he scored last year, but this most certainly doesn’t help. Jones is still clearly the Green Bay running back you want, but he is more RB2 than the RB1 I had him at prior to the draft.
Ronald Jones II, Buccaneers: See Vaughn, Ke’Shawn. An underperformer for his NFL career, Jones’ big calling card in fantasy this year was expected volume and lack of competition. That is likely now out the window.
James Conner, Steelers: I wasn’t a huge Conner fan this offseason to begin with. He missed six games and had another three with single-digit carries last season. Understanding that the offense was really challenged last year with Ben Roethlisberger out, it’s still worth pointing out that Conner failed to gain yardage on 25.9% of his carries. No other qualified running back (minimum 100 carries) was even at 24.5%. My fear going into the draft was that Conner, who will be a free agent after this season, would be in a RBBC. Now, after the Steelers took Anthony McFarland Jr., I feel sure of it. Averaging a strong 3.1 yards per carry after first contact, McFarland is 5-foot-9 and 198 pounds, and he ran a 4.44 40. He’ll get enough work this year along with Benny Snell Jr. and Jaylen Samuels to make me not want Conner at his expected ADP.
Pass-catchers I love after the 2020 NFL draft
Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage and Hayden Hurst, Falcons: The Falcons went all defense on draft day (save for a center in Round 3), and that’s good news for the offensive stars already on the roster. With newcomer tight end Hurst likely to see a smaller target share than Austin Hooper, the door remains open for Ridley to have a huge season as the No. 2 wideout in a high-scoring offense…But considering he has no real competition, Hurst should have a nice fantasy year, benefiting from an offense that was top 10 in tight end targets last year and tied for sixth in tight end red zone targets.
Allen Lazard, Packers: A favorite of Aaron Rodgers (who lobbied to get him into the lineup), they reportedly are close friends and spent Thanksgiving together last season. With Green Bay drafting no wide receivers, only free-agent addition Devin Funchess stands between Lazard and a significant role as Rodgers’ No. 2 wideout. Lazard looked good in limited time last year, Rodgers likes him and, well, someone has to catch it this year. I say it’s gonna be Lazard.
Antonio Gibson and Antonio Gandy-Golden, Redskins: I’m listing Gibson here as a wide receiver, because that’s where I think he gets the most run this year, but he will see time as a running back as well. Gibson played both positions at Memphis, and I know the Redskins were thrilled to get the versatile 6-foot, 228-pounder with 4.39 speed. Head coach Ron Rivera said his skill set reminded him of Christian McCaffrey. Consider there was only one Skins wideout from last season with more than 365 receiving yards or 35-plus receptions, there’s opportunity here opposite Terry McLaurin. Remember, the Panthers were second in pass attempts last year under Rivera and new Skins offensive coordinator Scott Turner. Now, hopefully the Skins’ defense is better than Carolina’s and is not in as many blowouts; but still, Gibson and Gandy-Golden (in that order) arrive in what will be a better offense than people think, with massive opportunity to grab a significant share of snaps.
Others receiving votes: I really like Cincy as a landing spot for Tee Higgins (6-foot-4, 216 pounds, 4.4 40-yard), and I thought about just putting him up above as a “love.”
Pass-catchers I hate after the 2020 NFL draft
Alshon Jeffery, Eagles: Coming off a season when he averaged a career-low 11.4 yards per reception and considering he has missed nine games over the past two seasons, you can’t feel great about the fact that Philly drafted three wide receivers and traded for Marquise Goodwin.
Courtland Sutton, Broncos: Last year’s WR27 is super talented, but he definitely benefited from a ton of looks. He was seventh in the NFL in total target share, air yard target share, red zone targets and end zone targets per game. With Noah Fant emerging, the addition of Melvin Gordon to the backfield (92 receptions in 24 games during the past two seasons) and the drafting of Jerry Jeudy, it’s hard to see Sutton getting the 26.1% target share he had with Drew Lock in 2019.
Amari Cooper, Cowboys: So, here are two wideouts:
Wide receiver A: 15.4 points per game on 7.4 targets a game.
Wide receiver B: 15.2 points per game on 8.1 targets a game.
Which guy do you want? Well, player A is Amari Cooper last year. And player B is his teammate Michael Gallup. Both are talented players, but they are closer in fantasy talent than people realize, and Gallup is clearly the better ADP value…It might take a few games, but eventually Lamb will take more looks away from both guys than Randall Cobb ever did last year. And since Gallup is the better value, Cooper makes this list. |