The Daily Briefing Friday, May 12, 2023
THE DAILY BRIEFINGSCHEDULE THOUGHTS There had been a lot of talk that every game was a free agent, but Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com still sees an NFC tilt to the FOX games, with CBS honing in on the AFC.
So much for every Sunday afternoon NFL game being a free agent between CBS and Fox.
Despite the league saying previously that the new TV contracts would eliminate the traditional CBS-AFC, Fox-NFC schedule, most Sunday afternoon games are remaining on the same network they would have been on with the old TV contracts.
In Week One, there are seven Sunday afternoon games with an NFC road team, and five of those seven games are on Fox, with only two on CBS. There are six Sunday afternoon games with an AFC road game, and five of those six games are on CBS, with only one on Fox.
It’s similar in Week Two: There are 12 Sunday afternoon games, and 10 of them maintain the NFC-Fox, AFC-CBS tradition, while Fox gets one AFC game and CBS gets one NFC game.
In Week Three there are 12 Sunday afternoon games, with nine maintaining the NFC-Fox, AFC-CBS alignment.
As the season goes on the NFL has flexibility to change which networks are showing which games to put the best games in front of the largest TV audiences, but the trend largely remains the same: Most NFC games will be on Fox and most AFC games will be on CBS.
That’s also clear from the networks’ own promotions: When the schedule was released, Fox trumpeted 10 “Notable 2023 matchups” it is showing, and nine of those 10 are NFC games. CBS announced nine “featured national games” from its schedule, and eight of those are AFC games.
So while the league has given itself more flexibility to move games across networks, for the most part, Sunday afternoon viewing habits won’t change: AFC games will mostly be on CBS, and NFC games will mostly be on Fox.
ESPN has taken three games from the Sunday network inventories. Mike Florio ofProFootballTalk.com:
The NFL has ditched the Week One Monday night doubleheader. The NFL is fully embracing the concept of two Monday night games being played at once.
This year’s schedule includes three Mondays with games that will be on at the same time. On two Mondays, they’re staggered by an hour. On the final Monday, they start at the same time.
Skip
In Week Two, it’s Saints at Panthers on ESPN at 7:15 p.m. ET, and Browns at Steelers at 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC.
The next Monday night, it’s Eagles at Buccaneers at 7:15 p.m. ET on ABC and Rams at Bengals at 8:15 p.m. on ESPN.
In Week 14, a pair of games start at 8:15 p.m. ET. On ESPN, its Titans at Dolphins. On ABC, it’s Packers at Giants.
It’s an unusual strategy. Why not just play them back to back or play one on Monday and the next on Tuesday?
Regardless, the chances of getting a good game will be doubled on three Mondays this year. Maybe on one or more of them, we’ll get two good games.
Richard Dietsch of The Athletic has more insight:
Let’s start with a cliché: You never get a second chance to make a first impression.
NFL broadcasting executives (and the rightsholder partners who pay them billions) are keenly aware of the importance of audience momentum. It’s why the NFL has front-loaded its schedule in recent years with games — at least on paper — that present big viewership possibilities. Optics and narratives matter significantly in Goodell Land, so the opening weeks of the NFL season are something I’m always focused on when the schedule is announced. Momentum is particularly important to the media partners that air one game a week, such as Amazon, ESPN and NBC. Fox and CBS can often look at their schedules more holistically.
The 2023 NFL schedule was released Thursday, and ESPN got a monster for its “Monday Night Football” opener — Aaron Rodgers’ debut with the Jets (at home) against the Super Bowl-contending Bills on Sept. 11. The company will air its first Super Bowl in the 2026 season, and if you want a small slice of what the promotion will be like for that event, watch the buildup for this game. Last year’s Monday night opener (Denver’s Russell Wilson playing his old Seahawks team in Seattle) averaged 19.84 million viewers, a huge viewership number for ESPN. ESPN officials lobbied the NFL hard for a Jets home game with Rodgers, and they could not have drawn a better opponent. You saw how heavily ESPN leaned into the Buccaneers-Cowboys postseason game as far as multiple platforms and studio shows. Look for similar here.
The season opener of “Sunday Night Football” (Sept. 10) will feature the Cowboys at the Giants. It’s the fifth time the NFC East rivals have met in the opening NBC “Sunday Night Football” game. The Cowboys always bring viewership.
Amazon Prime Video did well for its opener as the league provided the streamer with a Super Bowl finalist to start the season. They kick off with Vikings at Eagles on Sept. 14. Last year’s opener (Chargers–Chiefs) averaged 13.03 million viewers including the over-the-air broadcasts in the home markets of Los Angeles and Kansas City.
“The first three weeks we’ve got incredible firepower coming out of the gate, which is really important to us,” said Amazon vice president of global sports video Marie Donoghue on Wednesday night. “As we’re trying to create this muscle memory among fans, we want to start hot and start strong. So you look at our first three games — Vikings-Eagles, Giants-Niners and Lions–Packers — those are three playoff-caliber NFC matchups to start our season.”
The 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday slot has long been the most-watched window on television and the games often get stronger as the season goes along. The potential high-viewership games over the first two weeks include Jets at Cowboys in Week 2 at 4:25 p.m. on CBS, Green Bay at Chicago in Week 1 at 4:25 p.m. on Fox for Jordan Love’s opener, and the Eagles at the Patriots in Week 1 as New England honors Tom Brady.
Mike Mulvihill, the executive vice president and head of strategy and analytics for Fox Sports, is responsible for the network’s scheduling and strategic planning when it comes to the NFL. He said the first thing he did when he met with the NFL schedule-makers on Wednesday was to look at which games Fox had in the 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday window. “That 4:25 window has been the most-watched show on TV for 14 years,” Mulvihill said. “I feel like that’s really our identity, being strong in the late afternoon window.”
On the topic of early-season momentum, Mulvihill said it’s likely a lesser priority for Fox than it is for some of the other partners.
“NBC’s first couple of weeks are very strong,” Mulvihill said. “CBS’ Week 2 is really strong. It was a big priority for Amazon’s opening game to be one of their best, if not their best. I don’t necessarily think of it that way. In my mind, we’re going to have 100 to 105 games a year that we need to fill out 30 windows, and we’re trying to really think about the entirety of the package. What is the allocation of those games that’s going to get us to the best performance of those 30 windows? That’s not to say that anybody else’s strategy is wrong. We just like to think about the totality of the package.”
Some additional media-centric NFL schedule release thoughts:
2. Here were the five most-watched NFL regular-season games in 2022, excluding Thanksgiving:
1. Cowboys-Packers, Week 10 (29.2 million viewers on Fox) 2. Eagles-Cowboys, Week 16 (27.8 million viewers on Fox) 3. Cowboys-Vikings, Week 11 (27.7 million viewers on CBS) 4. Cowboys-Bengals, Week 2 (27.4 million viewers on CBS) 5. Packers-Buccaneers, Week 3 (26.4 million viewers on Fox)
What non-Thanksgiving Day 2023 games are candidates for the most-watched games of the year? Some guesses.
• Sept. 17: Jets at Cowboys, 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS • Nov. 5: Cowboys at Eagles, 4:25 p.m. ET on Fox • Nov. 26: Bills at Eagles, 4:25 p.m. on CBS • Dec. 10: Bills at Chiefs, 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS • Dec. 10: Eagles at Cowboys, 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC • Dec. 17: Cowboys at Bills, 4:25 p.m. ET on Fox • Dec. 31: Bengals at Chiefs, 4:25 ET on CBS
“When we look at our ranking of the top 50 games on the leaguewide schedule, the two that we had ranked the highest that ended up with us were Dallas-Philly and Dallas-Buffalo,” Mulvihill said. “In the case of Dallas-Philly, in the new contract, we’re guaranteed one end of every divisional home and home. So we think a little bit differently about Dallas-Philly than we think about Dallas-Buffalo, where we only have one opportunity to get that matchup, so we ranked Dallas-Buffalo a little more highly. Those are two super, super, high-priority games for us.”
3. The NFL’s Black Friday game has built-in cachet in 2023 because it’s a new media franchise for the league. But the NFL really took care of its partner — at least on paper — by assigning Jets-Dolphins to Amazon Prime. The game is scheduled to kick off at 3 p.m. ET on Nov. 24. Aaron Rodgers is on the short list of the most well known players in the league — he’s also polarizing, and that’s always a viewership draw. The Dolphins are expected to be playoff contenders. So you have two significant media markets and two teams with playoff potential in a divisional game that could have real meaning. There’s nothing historical viewership-wise to compare to a 3 p.m. ET Friday start, but I think Amazon is going to do very well here.
“We told them that we wanted the best matchup, and all things being equal, we prefer New York,” Donoghue said. “The holiday tradition in New York, media capital of the world, shopping capital of the world. We think there’s going to be so much excitement in New York around creating the holiday season. We also asked them for a strong matchup the week before Black Friday because that’ll be a key promotional night for us and they gave us Cincy at Baltimore. Lamar (Jackson) against Joe Burrow. It’s a big game, and it’s one of the best quarterback matchups you’ll see all year.”
4. Last year’s season-opening kickoff game between the Bills and Rams averaged 21 million viewers on NBC, a drop of 20 percent from the 26 million for Cowboys-Bucs in 2021. Last year was also down from Chiefs-Texans in 2020 (21.6 million viewers). This year’s opener features the Chiefs and Lions (Sept. 7 at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock), and we’ll get a very early sense if viewers nationally are buying into the big expectations of Detroit this year.
5. Fox really wanted to acquire two of the four interconference games between the Eagles, Cowboys, Jets and Bills. They ended up with Dallas-Buffalo (Dec. 17) and Jets-Eagles (Oct. 15). If Fox was in NBC or ESPN’s position, they likely would have pushed much harder for a singular specific game. Mulvihill said he doesn’t want to fall into a trap of one specific matchup given how many windows Fox must fill.
6. CBS has 10 national Sunday doubleheader windows at 4:25 p.m. in 2023. The network said the “NFL on CBS” last year averaged 23.495 million viewers for its 10 national Sunday game windows, which they said was more than any prime-time television sports, entertainment or news series on any network.
7. Keep your eye on how Green Bay and Detroit do as it relates to Fox’s schedule. Fox has 10 Lions games, including Thanksgiving, with two more TBD.
“For years we would think of Dallas and Green Bay as being kind of equal contributors to our 4:25 window,” Mulvihill said. “This season, if you’re loading up on Dallas at 4:25, which we are, then it’s almost inevitable that you have to have a lot of NFC North at 1 p.m. During this process, what I said to the league a couple times was, ‘You’ve got 12 NFC North head-to-heads and all of them are good enough to anchor a 1 p.m. start, and it’s possible that none of them are good enough to anchor a 4:25. Literally the last thing we did in this process was we went with Green Bay-Chicago as our Week 1 4:25 game because I do think that first game of the Jordan Love era is good enough for Week 1 specifically. But for the most part, we really wanted to go NFC East late and NFC North early.”
8. ESPN/ABC has its most ambitious schedule as part of the deal it signed with the NFL. The company will air a record-for-them 25 games (23 regular season plus two playoff games) including 20 “Monday Night Football” games. Three of those weeks (Weeks 2, 3, and 14) will have multiple games on the same night (ESPN plus ABC), They have flex scheduling beginning in Week 12 and a divisional round game for the first time on ESPN. Their schedule is here.
9. The highlights of Amazon Prime’s schedule after the opening two weeks: Giants-49ers (Sept. 21), Bengals-Ravens (Nov. 16) and Seahawks-Cowboys (Nov. 30). Amazon’s schedule benefits this year by having some teams on its service twice, including the Bears and Steelers. (Yes, I think that is a garbage new rule by the NFL for the players’ sake.)
10. “Sunday Night Football” will air Chiefs-Jets on Oct. 1 in the first-ever meeting of NFL and Super Bowl MVPs. Regarding NBC: Keep in mind they have a game this year exclusively on Peacock: Bills at Chargers at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday, Dec. 23. That game will air on over-the-air TV in Buffalo and L.A.
11. The NBA’s Christmas Day viewership has a tougher challenge in 2023 thanks to the NFL. The league scheduled a massive viewership game with a rematch of the NFC divisional game between the Giants and Eagles. The game will kick off at 4:30 p.m. ET on Fox. The early Christmas Day game features the Raiders at the Chiefs. That game will kick off at 1 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on both CBS and Nickelodeon. Ravens-Niners is the late game on ABC. Last year, NBA’s five-game Christmas Day schedule averaged 4.31 million viewers across ABC and ESPN, up 5 percent in viewership over 2021. I’ll bet right now that the NBA’s showcase game next year (which should air around 5 p.m. ET) is Lakers-Warriors.
12. There has been some confusion online regarding which broadcast retains the rights to AFC and NFC games on Sundays. As viewers, we traditionally are used to seeing more NFC games on Fox and AFC games on CBS based on the prior NFL contract.
“While any given game is now eligible to appear on any network, Fox/NFC and CBS/AFC still have appearance minimums per team that keep the traditional conference affiliations relevant,” Mulvihill said on Twitter. That’s why you saw Fox end up with nine games each for the Cowboys, Giants, Eagles and Niners. More than 90 percent of Fox’s games feature at least one NFC team. – – – Here is Ari Meirov’s “primetime game” count:
Ari Meirov @MySportsUpdate Amount of primetime games by team:
6: KC, LAC, BUF, DAL 5: NYJ, GB, MIN, LV, PHI, SF. NYG 4: DET, CHI, DEN, BAL, CIN, NE, PIT 3: NO, SEA, JAX, MIA 2: TB, CLE, TEN, CAR, LAR 1: WSH 0: HOU, ATL, ARZ, IND
And a reminder: Primetime for the NFL = game at night.
We know its not an exact science – but 6 for the Chargers seems high.
We also would have thrown at least one to the Falcons who might be pretty exciting this season (see ATLANTA).
We will take a further look on Monday at the “standalone” game count that will include European, Thanksgiving, Christmas (and throw in prime 4:25’s).
NFC SOUTH
ATLANTA Writing at bloggingdirty.com, Grayson Freestone protests the NFL’s lack of respect to the Falcons.
The National Football League clearly hates their own; they have chosen to give the Atlanta Falcons zero, I repeat, zero nighttime, AKA primetime, games during the 2023 NFL Season.
It is downright stupid, they used zero logic in this decision as they have scheduled numerous boring and bad teams in primetime while the Falcons have the most exciting run game in the NFL that now includes Bijan Robinson, who might already be one of the most entertaining players in the entire NFL.
Personally, I don’t really care about the mere fact the Atlanta Falcons don’t have a primetime game. What I do care about is respect and fairness, why is there even one, let alone four NFL teams that don’t get any primetime games?! Every team should get at least one per year.
I understand this world revolves around money, and the Chiefs, Cowboys, 49ers, etc. all bring in the big bucks, but come on, who wants to watch those teams like five or six primetime games through the year, it gets boring. I would rather watch a variety of teams throughout the year, than the same four teams six times.
Back to the Falcons, look at some of the teams that have multiple primetime games. Tampa!? Chicago!? Denver!? Those teams aren’t good. The NFL obviously didn’t learn from the disaster that was the 2022 Broncos who had many primetime games. And did they get the memo that Tom Brady retired?
I mean heck, the freaking Patriots have four primetime games; I don’t know anyone who will be turning on the TV an hour early in anticipation of watching the New England Patriots. More people will record those Patriots games to skip through the game and watch the commercials.
And don’t get me started about New Orleans and Carolina. Sorry for not thinking that Derek Carr, who couldn’t lead a very talented Las Vegas Raiders offense (speaking of them, how did they get five primetime games?!), to any success and ended up getting benched. Also, the Panthers have an unproven quarterback, they don’t deserve two more night games on standalone television than the Atlanta Falcons.
Anyways, the rant is now over. All in all, the NFL is making a big mistake. The Falcons, without a single ounce of doubt, will be a much better and more entertaining team than a few of the teams who have at least one primetime game. Nice job NFL, really nailed it!
AFC WEST
LAS VEGAS Can Tom Brady be a part-owner of a team and still a member of an NFL broadcast team? Vic Tafur and Richard Dietsch of The Athletic:
Tom Brady and Raiders owner Mark Davis are meeting to discuss a role for Brady as an ownership partner for Las Vegas, league sources confirmed to The Athletic. Here’s what you need to know:
* Davis has been looking for a limited partner and was in talks with Magic Johnson a year ago. Johnson wound up being a part of the Commanders’ new ownership group.
* Brady has previously bought ownership stakes in the Las Vegas Aces of the WNBA and a pickleball expansion team in the MLP. Davis is also the primary owner of the Aces.
*Brady retired in February following a historic 23-year career, winning seven Super Bowls.
The Athletic’s instant analysis:
What would this mean for his broadcasting future?
Sports television entities punted long ago on the notion that their broadcasters can’t have some kind of ownership stake in teams. The question usually comes down to optics: Are you comfortable having your broadcaster call games or discuss said team? Usually the answer is yes.
In the case of Brady, as ESPN reported, Fox has blessed the arrangement based on sourcing. That tracks historically with all networks. If you are a tennis fan, for instance, you have long watched broadcasters analyze matches while actively coaching other players on tour. Brady, if he does land in the broadcasting booth in 2024, will be the highest-paid and most famous front-facing staffer at Fox Sports. The company isn’t going to derail that simply because of an obvious conflict of interest.
My rule of thumb, and you don’t have to follow it, is this: If someone has a financial stake in something, you should proceed with caution, not necessarily about what they are saying, but what they don’t say. If Brady ends up with a piece of the Raiders, I’m going to bypass everything he says about the franchise outside of game analysis. But as far as whether it will be an issue for Fox, no chance. — Deitsch
Backstory Along with the Aces and future pickleball team, Brady has been linked with NFL ownership. In 2022, after his initial retirement, there were multiple reports that Brady was in discussion with the Miami Dolphins to become a minority owner.
The Dolphins were later sanctioned by the NFL for this impermissible contact with Brady, as he was still under contract with the Buccaneers. They were forced to forfeit the club’s first-round selection in the 2023 NFL Draft and a third-round selection in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Brady reportedly signed a 10-year, $375 million deal to join Fox as a broadcaster shortly after retiring.
AFC NORTH
CINCINNATI The Bengals would love to play the Black Friday game every year.
@MadDogRadio · “Not just in 2023, how about as a tradition? We play in Dallas and Detroit on Thanksgiving every year, how about playing in Cincinnati on Black Friday every year?
Mike North tells @AdamSchein the #Bengals volunteered to play on Black Friday on @NFLonPrime annually.
The NFL did strongly consider a game with two teams with black in their uniforms – Steelers at Bengals – before opting for the green/teal Jets-Dolphins game.
AFC EAST
BUFFALO The Bills drafted P MATT ARIAZA out of San Diego State in the 5th round last May, but quickly renounced the pick when an accuser claimed he was part of a gang rape.
Well, California authorities are now admitting they don’t even think Ariaza was even present when whatever occurred, much less any contention that the sex was consensual or that she had lied about her age. Natasha Dye of People:
Ten months after former Buffalo Bills punter Matt Araiza was accused of participating in a 2021 gang rape, new details have emerged about why the football player was not convicted of any charges.
The lawsuit, filed in the San Diego Superior Court in Aug. 2022, accused Araiza, 22, of having sex with an intoxicated 17-year-old girl outside of a home and then bringing her inside, where she was allegedly further assaulted by Araiza and former San Diego State football players Zavier Leonard and Nowlin “Pa’a” Ewaliko.
Araiza later admitted to having consensual sex with the victim that night and again when speaking to USA Today Sports. “We had a brief encounter, and it is absolutely not how it’s been portrayed in the media or the lawsuit,” he told the outlet.
In December, prosecutors determined they would not press any criminal charges following an investigation that spanned 124 days, per the report. Little information was made available at the time regarding the circumstances that led to that decision, despite authorities having gathered more than 35 witness statements and 10 search warrants that found four terabytes of information regarding the incident.
On Thursday, USA Today obtained a transcript of the victim’s meeting with deputy district attorney Trisha Amador that offered more insight into the lawsuit’s dissolution.
The victim, whose name has not been made public, submitted video recordings from the night of the alleged incident to authorities.
According to the transcript, per USA Today, Amador told Araiza’s accuser, “In looking at the videos on the sex tape, I absolutely cannot prove any forceable sexual assault based upon what happened.” Everything to Know About Philadelphia Eagles Player Josh Sills and His Legal Controversies
Furthermore, USA Today said the transcript revealed that the district attorney’s office used video footage to determine that Araiza wasn’t even at the scene of the attack when the alleged gang rape happened, based on the “physical characteristics” of the men shown in the video.
According to the outlet, the encounter between the victim and multiple assailants happened between 12:55 a.m. and 1:30 a.m., one hour after Araiza apparently left the party.
The lawsuit accusing Araiza of the assault also claimed that the former NFL player “knew or should have known” that the victim was a minor and that she appeared “heavily intoxicated” when the two engaged in a sexual encounter earlier in the night.
During the meeting, Amador produced multiple witness statements from guests at the party who claimed the accuser “made a statement” to the party telling guests she was 18 years old. Another video submitted to police showed the accuser lying about her age on camera during an unrelated party the night before the alleged rape.
The accuser is not buying it though, per Mike Florio, and she and her attorney will continue to try to get cash from Araiza in a civil suit.
Much has been made about comments made by prosecutors to the alleged victim in the incident involving former Bills punter Matt Araiza. The alleged victim makes very little of the conclusion that charges ultimately weren’t filed due to evidence supporting a conclusion that Araiza was not present when an alleged gang rape occurred.
USA Today spoke separately with Araiza and the alleged victim. They sharply disagree on the impact of the 101-minute recorded meeting between prosecutors, the alleged victim, and her lawyer.
Per the new article, Araiza and his agent, Joe Linta, have sent the audio to roughly 20 teams, in an effort to get Araiza another opportunity in the NFL.
“I know the teams know the true facts,” Araiza told USA Today. “They’ve heard the audio. They know this isn’t true. It’s that we need the public to understand as well. Because I think teams have a fear that if they sign me, there will be a little bit of backlash because the public has been told things that aren’t true.”
One way to help reduce the backlash perhaps could be to make the audio available for public consumption. It Araiza and Linta are able to give it to roughly 20 teams, they also can release it for media to review, analyze, and/or scrutinize.
The reaction to the tape might not be universal.
“I don’t think it exonerates anybody,” the alleged victim told USA Today.
Per USA Today, the recording refers to “nine brief video clips of the woman’s sexual encounters” on the night in question. Araiza claims the recording is “huge.”
The alleged victim claims that she was too intoxicated to consent to sexual activity, and that the video clips, “show only a fraction” of what transpired. She said the video accounts for roughly 30 seconds of events that lasted more than 90 minutes.
“I just don’t think that’s fair at all to look at these short clips that were already way into this assault already happening and make a judgment on that and say that that was consensual,” she told USA Today.
Araiza admitted to having sex with the woman outside the house where the gang rape allegedly occurred. In the lawsuit, the alleged victim claims Araiza led her inside and threw her down on a bed.
“He should face accountability for what he did and what he admitted to doing,” the alleged victim said. “It was wrong. I was 17 and I was drunk, regardless of whether the DA was able to prove. It was wrong.”
Despite her age, the prosecutor told the alleged victim that it could not be proven Araiza and the others accused of having sex with her that they knew she was younger than 18. In California, it is a defense to statutory rape if the accused reasonably believed the alleged victim was at least 18.
“I didn’t say my age at all and nobody asked me,” the alleged victim told USA Today. “Matt didn’t ask me. None of the guys asked me. Nobody at the party asked me, so I just wasn’t prompted and I didn’t answer.”
Ultimately, prosecutors don’t like to take to trial cases that they believe can’t be proven beyond a reasonable doubt. That very high bar, which was prominently on display in the O.J. Simpson case, regularly influences the exercise of prosecutorial discretion.
It was a factor last year with the Deshaun Watson cases. The prosecutor admitted that she ultimately deferred to other vehicles for the victims securing justice, including their civil lawsuits.
In this case, the civil lawsuit against Araiza will continue. As we previously have explained, there’s no NFL rule or policy that would result in discipline or paid leave, given that he will not be charged criminally — regardless of the outcome of the lawsuit.
It’s now for the teams to balance the significance of the punting position and how well Araiza can be expected to perform it at the NFL level against the potential consequences of giving him a roster spot. It’s a matter of assessing the benefits from a football standpoint versus the costs from a P.R. perspective.
Whether that’s right or wrong doesn’t matter. It’s the way it is, especially since Araiza plays a position with an overabundance of individuals who can perform the duties of the job to an acceptable degree.
If, in contrast, Araiza were a high-end quarterback, he’d already be on a team. He probably wouldn’t have even been cut in the first place.
NEW YORK JETS Last year, the NFL went overboard on the Broncos schedule after Denver acquired QB RUSSELL WILSON.
Mike Florio seems to wonder if they have repeated that mistake with the Jets.
Last year, the Broncos were the flavor of the month. They had seven standalone games. It didn’t go well.
This year, the Jets have become the NFL’s bright, shiny object. They’ll have six standalone games.
The Jets will take center stage Week One vs. the Bills (Monday night), Week Four vs. the Chiefs (Sunday night), Week Nine vs. the Chargers (Monday night), Week 10 at the Raiders (Sunday night), Week 12 vs. the Dolphins (Black Friday), and Week 17 at the Browns (Thursday night).
The Jets also play four games at 4:25 p.m. ET: Week Two at the Cowboys, Week Five at the Broncos, Week Six vs. the Eagles, and Week 11 at the Bills. Those contests routinely draw massive audiences.
THIS AND THAT
SUPER BOWL CHANCES Austin Mock of The Athletic thinks last year’s SB teams enter 2023 as this season’s leaders per his analytics (the Saints ahead of 2023 favorites like the Lions, Jets, Chargers!).
As the NFL releases the full 2023 schedule tonight at 8 p.m. Eastern, it’s time to look at how the season is currently projected to take shape by my NFL model. The model currently makes a projection for every team and then simulates every regular season and playoff game. It’s important to note that we are still months away from the start of the regular season, and projections are subject to change.
Projections
Win Super Bowl Make Playoffs Eagles 15.5% 91.4% Chiefs 14.2% 88.7% Cowboys 10.0% 82.8% Bills 9.2% 78.5% Bengals 6.1% 70.1% 49ers 6.0% 71.9% Saints 5.1% 78.5% Ravens 4.7% 66.8% Jaguars 3.4% 69.2% Vikings 3.2% 59.3% Lions 3.0% 58.6% Dolphins 2.8% 48.4% Jets 2.7% 50.4% Seahawks 1.8% 41.5% Chargers 1.7% 35.8% Rams 1.3% 36.0% Browns 1.3% 41.4% Titans 1.2% 46.2% Steelers 1.2% 40.9% Commanders 1.1% 30.4% Packers 1.0% 33.5% Falcons 0.8% 34.4% Giants 0.7% 23.1% Raiders 0.5% 23.4% Panthers 0.5% 23.0% Buccaneers 0.4% 18.2% Patriots 0.3% 14.3% Broncos 0.3% 16.3% Bears 0.1% 12.8% Texans 0.0% 5.8% Cardinals 0.0% 4.5% Colts 0.0% 4.0%
Let’s look at some storylines from these initial projections.
Baltimore Ravens Retaining Lamar Jackson and pairing him with former Georgia offensive coordinator Todd Monken gives the Ravens a real shot of being a contender in the gauntlet that’s the AFC. We won’t know until the season starts but I wouldn’t be shocked if my model is low on the Ravens’ offense.
Dallas Cowboys My model doesn’t believe that the Cowboys are an elite team by any means. Still, considering the strength of the NFC, the Cowboys will automatically find themselves near the top of the conference if they can stay healthy.
CHIRSTMAS ON WEDNESDAY? Mike Florio wonders if Wednesday will be the Grinch Day that steals the NFL’s Christmas –
The NFL finally has discovered the benefit of seizing the captive audience on Christmas, with three games played last year on December 25 and three to be played this year.
In 2022, Christmas landed on a Sunday. This year, it falls on a Monday.
What happens in 2024, when Christmas slides to Wednesday?
During a Friday conference call regarding the 2023 schedule, NFL V.P. of broadcast planning Mike North said he does not anticipate games being played when Christmas falls on a Tuesday or a Wednesday. North prefaced his comments, however, by pointing out that it’s ultimately a decision for the Commissioner.
It will be an issue in 2024 (Wednesday), 2029 (Tuesday), 2030 (Wednesday), 2035 (Tuesday), and 2040 (Tuesday). In every other year, Christmas lands on a day on which it will be easy to play three games.
The league has shown that it knows how to figure out how to play games on Tuesday and Wednesday, given the challenges of the pandemic. If the Commissioner decides that he wants Christmas football to be played even when it happens on Tuesday or Wednesday, it will.
As a lesser alternative, look for multiple games on Boxing Day, Thursday the 26th, when Christmas falls on Wednesday as is the custom in English soccer.
And if Christmas is on Tuesday, the 25th, we could see something like:
Friday, the 21st – 1 game Saturday, the 22nd – 3 games Sunday, the 23rd – 8 games Monday, the 23rd – 2 games Tuesday, the 24th – 2 games
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