AROUND THE NFL
Daily Briefing
We will go through each team’s schedule in detail next week, but we felt we had to highlight this quirk to Cleveland’s 2021 slate – the Browns will play the Ravens in consecutive games (although not consecutive weeks):
11 Nov. 21 Detroit Lions 1 p.m. FOX
12 Nov. 28 at Baltimore Ravens 8:20 p.m. NBC
13 BYE
14 Dec. 12 Baltimore Ravens 1 p.m. CBS
15 Dec. 18/19 Las Vegas Raiders TBD TBD
Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:
It’s the first time the Browns have played a regular-season opponent in back-to-back games since 1957, when the club took on the Eagles in both Week Three and Week Four. The two teams split those matchups, with the home team winning each contest.
However, the Browns did just play the Steelers in back-to-back weeks last year. Cleveland defeated Pittsburgh in Week 17 to earn a playoff berth. And then the Browns stunned the Steelers in Pittsburgh with a 48-37 victory in the wild-card round, giving the franchise its first postseason victory since 1994.
This from the Ravens perspective at Baltimore Ravens.com:
“This season, the quirkiest schedule belongs to the Baltimore Ravens,” writes Judy Battista ofNFL.com, “Who play four games in a row at home beginning in Week 5 and have a bye week in between. After an Oct. 3 tilt in Denver, the Ravens will sleep in their own beds until they leave for a Nov. 11 game in Miami.”
The flip side to the Ravens’ extended stay in Baltimore is that they play four of their next five games on the road. They also face five teams that made the playoffs last season in their final six games.
Sports Illustrated’s Conor Orr named the Ravens as one of six teams that were “stiffed by the NFL schedule.”
“After a plum schedule in 2020 with extremely limited travel, the Ravens get put through the gauntlet in 2021,” Orr wrote. “It’s hard to overstate how much steeper the climb becomes post-bye.
“After winnable back-to-back road games against the Dolphins on Thursday Night Football (Nov. 28) and the Bears (a solid placement for their Thursday night game considering they get the mini bye close after their actual bye), Baltimore hosts the Browns, travels to Pittsburgh, travels to Cleveland and hosts the Packers. Then, after a game against the Bengals in Cincinnati, they close out their regular season with back-to-back home games against the Rams and Steelers, both of whom will likely factor into the playoff conversation.”
Another quirk to the Ravens’ schedule is that they don’t face their first AFC North opponent until Week 7 (at home against the Cincinnati Bengals) and have just one division game among the first 10. Five of their six division games will take place over the last seven weeks of the regular season.
Moreover, the Ravens and Browns — the teams widely considered to be the two best in the AFC North — will play each other in Weeks 12 and 14. In Week 13, however, Cleveland has a bye, while the Ravens travel to Pittsburgh. Thus, the Browns will play the Ravens in back-to-back games.
In addition to the Ravens’ second game against the Browns, they also will be playing with a lack of rest against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 2.
“Baltimore plays host to Kansas City after opening the season at Las Vegas [on “Monday Night Football],” ESPN’s Jamison Hensley wrote. “This means playing Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs on a short week after taking a cross-country, red-eye flight.”
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NFL Research on the chances someone will go “worst to first”:
This is a PSA to the eight teams who finished in last place in their respective divisions last season: This could be your year! Get excited (if you’re not already), fans of the Jets, Bengals, Jaguars, Broncos, Eagles, Lions, Falcons and 49ers.
At least one team has gone from worst to first, winning its division the season after finishing in or tied for last place in 16 of the last 18 seasons. Washington accomplished the feat in 2020. Then factor in that at least two teams have won their divisions the season after missing the playoffs in 17 of the last 18 seasons (Steelers and Washington did so in 2020). Finally, consider that since 1990 (31 straight seasons), at least four teams have made the playoffs every season after missing out on the postseason the year before.
The 49ers, especially when compared to the other seven last place teams, would seem to be the overwhelming choice to be the team to pull it off this year.
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NFC NORTH
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CHICAGO
Jeffri Chadiha of NFL.com endorses the idea that QB JUSTIN FIELDS will be a better player because he lasted to the Bears at #10, rather than go to the Jets at #2:
Forget about all the disappointing quarterbacks the Chicago Bears have endured over the decades. Don’t pay much credence to all the challenges facing this team this fall, either, including the NFC’s toughest strength of schedule and legitimate offensive line questions. The Bears have a rookie quarterback who could end up as the best signal-caller in this draft class someday. All he has to do is rely on that sizable chip that should be resting snugly on his right shoulder.
Anybody who’s been watching the NFL lately should understand one simple truth: Most of the best quarterbacks in this league have blossomed in the wake of disrespect.
Tom Brady didn’t get drafted until the sixth round, Aaron Rodgers had his draft daydream famously spoiled, and countless teams thought Russell Wilson was too tiny to have any major impact. Fields just spent the past few months hearing about his own flaws, which ultimately led to him falling to the Bears at the 11th overall pick. There likely isn’t much solace knowing Chicago traded up to get him after Fields dropped out of the top 10.
Fields comes into the league realizing this much: When he announced his decision to leave Ohio State early to enter the 2021 NFL Draft, many considered him to be the second-best quarterback in this class. He produced at an insanely high level against top competition and reportedly blew away an aptitude test that suggested he has a photographic memory. As Fields said during a video press conference after the Bears selected him, “When big moments present themselves, I feel like there’s just another thing that kicks inside me.
“Playing well on big stages, I think that’s definitely one of my strengths, for sure.”
The fourth quarterback off the board two weeks ago — Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson and Trey Lancewere taken with the first three picks of the evening, then teams like Carolina and Denver chose to address other positions in the top 10 — Fields was smart enough to not spend his draft night lamenting those who passed on him. There will be plenty of time to use that chip to his advantage, plenty of time to punish those evaluators who oddly singled him out for excessive criticism during the pre-draft process. The beauty of what happened to Fields is that it made him well aware of what it’s going to take to succeed at the highest level of football. It would be a shock if he didn’t arrive at Chicago’s rookie minicamp this weekend hyper-focused to show the world what he’s really all about.
After all, Brady didn’t become the greatest quarterback of all time because he was blessed with talent nobody else could see except for New England head coach Bill Belichick, who passed on the Michigan product six times before selecting him with the 199th overall pick in 2000. It was because Brady toiled relentlessly at his craft, so much so that veterans would watch him in meetings and workouts during his rookie season and wonder what would happen if he ever became a starter. When Wilson showed up in Seattle as a third-round pick in 2012 — a draft class that included quarterbacks like Brandon Weeden and Brock Osweiler taken ahead of him — he was planning on competing with free-agent acquisition Matt Flynn for the job. Wilson earned the spot by the end of his first training camp, largely because his preparation and tireless work ethic garnered so much admiration.
Then there’s Rodgers. He’s dominating the offseason news cycle right now because of his ongoing feud with the Green Bay Packers’ front office, but his stubborn nature is easy to understand. His Hall of Fame career has been filled with slights, from being ignored by big-time programs coming out of high school … to a stint in junior college before starring at Cal … to falling to the 24th overall pick in the 2005 draft after being discussed as the top overall selection that year. In fact, most of the quarterbacks in last year’s postseason — a group that also included Buffalo’s Josh Allen, Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson and recently retired New Orleans icon Drew Brees — seized on the benefit of disrespect.
These stories are brought up because all these men used insults to their advantage. Fields didn’t have to face the type of struggles some of those other quarterbacks encountered in their early years — he was a five-star quarterback coming out of high school — but he has worked for everything he’s gotten. Fields transferred from Georgia when it was clear that Jake Fromm was entrenched as the starter. He then led Ohio State to a 20-2 record during his tenure there, with his Buckeyes earning back-to-back College Football Playoff bids and a spot in last year’s national championship game.
You want to know everything you need to know about Fields? Just watch him in this past January’s 49-28 win over Clemson in the national semifinals. Not only did Fields complete 22 of 28 passes for 385 yards and six touchdowns, but he also thoroughly outplayed Lawrence, who’d been preordained as the top pick in this draft since his freshman year. Fields memorably took a vicious shot to his ribs from a Clemson linebacker early in that contest, but after missing just one snap, he continued his brilliance throughout the rest of a statement-making blowout of the Tigers.
The Bears have had their share of tough quarterbacks. What they haven’t had is a quarterback who can provide that grit and all the playmaking ability that Fields brings to the table. When a reporter asked Fields to describe himself on that aforementioned virtual presser, the 22-year-old said he’s a versatile QB who creates plays with his arm and legs, makes smart decisions and is willing to do whatever it takes to win. Fields added that he fits perfectly with what Chicago head coach Matt Nagy wants to do with this offense.
Of course, this is the part where we have to get into what Nagy hasn’t done with this offense, as well as what general manager Ryan Pace hasn’t accomplished with the quarterback position. The Bears had hoped that Mitchell Trubisky could blossom into a consistent leader. They brought in Nick Foles to give this team a boost last year and then signed Andy Dalton earlier this offseason as a stopgap. This is a brain trust that has disappointed every time it’s bet on a quarterback and, if not for two postseason appearances in the last three years, the coach and GM might not have their jobs today.
Simply put, the Bears had to go get Fields. Pace blew it when he drafted Trubisky second overall in 2017 — while infamously passing on Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson — and Nagy’s calling card as a quarterback whisperer has been negated by his inability to get much out of either Trubisky or Foles. The Bears need a player who can make something special happen when plans implode. They need somebody who can make Chicago believe that winning can happen even when the defense has a bad day.
The Bears appear to have such a player now, along with an obvious game plan. Nagy has talked about giving Fields time to acclimate to the league as Dalton leads the team early. It’s a move Nagy remembers from his days as the Chiefs’ offensive coordinator, when Mahomes spent his rookie season sitting behind Alex Smith.
“We know what we have sitting in front of us,” Nagy said during NFL Network’s schedule release coverage Wednesday night. “And we know we need to have a successful entry plan.”
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DETROIT
Is there something ironic about T PENEI SEWELL passing on the 2020 season at Oregon out of COVID fears, getting drafted early anyway, and then catching the virus just as he was about to go to work? Jack Baer of YahooSports.com:
Penei Sewell will have to wait a while before his Detroit Lions career can really begin.
The seventh overall pick of the 2021 NFL draft announced Wednesday that he tested positive for COVID-19 last weekend, which means he will almost certainly miss the Lions’ rookie minicamp.
Detroit’s minicamp is scheduled for Friday through Sunday. That’s too soon to expect Sewell’s participation, per MLive.
Penei Sewell’s badly timed COVID-19 diagnosis
Sewell’s next chance at playing with his new teammates might be at Detroit’s OTA workouts, the first of which begins May 25. But the NFLPA announced last month that Lions players will skip the voluntary workouts due to concerns about COVID-19 safety. (The Detroit Free Press reported last week that players may still show up.)
The Lions’ mandatory minicamp will begin June 8.
Sewell having to wait an extra month to make his on-field debut with the team that drafted him isn’t ideal. Yahoo Sports’ Eric Edholm had Sewell ranked as the top offensive lineman in the draft, but noted that the 20-year-old Sewell is young even among draft prospects and hasn’t played in a game since the 2020 Rose Bowl after opting out of last season.
Add in the fact that Sewell is expected to be playing a new position this season — he was a left tackle at Oregon, but will play right tackle with the Lions due to the presence of Taylor Decker — and you have to imagine the Lions aren’t too thrilled with losing reps for their top 10 pick.
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GREEN BAY
The camp of QB AARON RODGERS is putting out the tale that the Packers have reneged on a promise to trade the disgruntled quarterback. The Packers disagree. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:
As the Aaron Rodgers saga continues, a persistent contention lingers in league circles. The Packers regard it as hogwash.
There’s a belief that Rodgers was under the impression that the Packers had agreed to trade him, at some point during the offseason. The claim that Rodgers was told he’d be traded was first mentioned, as best I can tell, by Trey Wingo during the flood of nuggets that began two weeks ago today, the first day of the draft.
Recently, PFT has heard the same thing: Rodgers, as the story goes, believes the Packers told him they’d trade him, and that the Packers have since reversed course.
Per a team source, the Packers regard the notion that Rodgers was told he’d be traded as “unequivocally false.”
Taking it a step farther, the Packers weren’t even aware that Rodgers believed he’d be traded before the reporting on this specific point emerged. If, as some believe, some sort of misunderstanding arose during the communications between player and team, at some point someone from Rodgers’ camp would have said to the Packers, “Wait, we thought you said you were trading him?” That, we’re told, hasn’t happened.
While a verbal commitment (if one was made) to trade Rodgers would not be enforceable, it would further explain his reported discontent with the team. Not only did they trade up to draft his eventual replacement without telling him but they also (if a trade commitment was made) reneged on their word to let him continue his career elsewhere.
Again, it’s possible Rodgers believes that such a promise was made, and it’s possible that no such promise was actually made. Even then, it’s logical to think that the Packers would have heard about this at some point before it was reported on April 29.
The Packers nevertheless continue to hold all the cards. If they choose not to trade him, Rodgers has two choices: Play for the Packers or play for no one. The former includes playing football and being paid $14.7 million in additional salary this year. The latter entails sitting out, losing the salary, paying back $23 million in unearned signing bonus money, and giving up the $6.8 million roster bonus earned earlier this offseason.
Unless the Packers suddenly decide to trade Rodgers, we’ll soon find out whether Rodgers will select Door No. 1 or Door No. 2.
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MINNESOTA
This really isn’t much of a return for a former first round pick. ESPN.com:
The Kansas City Chiefs acquired cornerback Mike Hughes in a trade with the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday.
The Chiefs traded a 2022 sixth-round pick to Minnesota while the Vikings sent a 2022 seventh-round pick to Kansas City in the deal.
Hughes was drafted by the Vikings in the first round (30th overall) of the 2018 NFL draft. The Vikings declined to exercise the fifth-year option in Hughes’ rookie contract, meaning he will be a free agent after this season.
Hughes will be given the chance to compete for playing time with the Chiefs immediately. One starter from last season, Bashaud Breeland, is a free agent and remains unsigned.
Hughes will join a group of cornerbacks that includes Charvarius Ward, a starter the past two seasons, and L’Jarius Sneed, a fourth-round draft pick last year who played well as the third cornerback.
The Chiefs last year acquired another former No. 1 draft pick, DeAndre Baker, after he was released by the New York Giants. Baker broke his left leg in the final regular-season game last season.
Hughes was limited to just four games last season because of a neck injury that resulted in him being placed on injured reserve in October.
Multiple injuries, including a torn ACL his rookie season and neck injury that ended Hughes’ season on injured reserve in 2020, limited the cornerback to 24 games with seven starts over the first three years of his career.
Hughes recorded 80 tackles, had 13 passes defended and two interceptions — returning one for a touchdown — in his three seasons with Minnesota, predominantly playing in the slot in the Vikings’ nickel defense.
With 2020 first-round pick Jeff Gladney in the legal process after an alleged domestic assault in April, it is possible the Vikings will turn to newly re-signed cornerback Mackensie Alexander, who spent the first four seasons (2016-19) of his career in Minnesota, to play the nickel corner position.
Hughes for a move probably from the middle of the 7th to the end of the 6th.
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NFC SOUTH
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TAMPA BAY
Like father, like son? Tom Brady, Sr. is looking forward to Tampa Bay’s visit to New England and an overwhelming victory. Jenna Laine of ESPN.com:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady couldn’t contain his excitement with the NFL schedule release, posting on Instagram, “9/9 can’t come soon enough” when it was announced the Bucs would play the Dallas Cowboys in the NFL Kickoff Game.
His father, Tom Brady Sr., is eyeing a different game, though — Week 4, when the Bucs travel to play the New England Patriots, marking his son’s return to Foxborough after leading the Bucs to a Super Bowl win in his first season in Tampa after 20 seasons with the Patriots.
“I saw the schedule come out last night, and I started salivating when I saw that we play the Patriots in the fourth game of the season and that we’re coming up here to make our record 4-0 after the fourth game,” Brady Sr. said on the “Zolak and Bertrand” radio show on 98.5 The Sports Hub in Boston on Thursday morning.
Shortly after his father’s surprise radio appearance, Brady tweeted about the game with a nervous grin, saying, “It’s like when your high school friends meet your college friends.”
Brady Sr., who lives in California, called Boston their “second home” and called the Patriots their “second-favorite team,” expressing love for the organization and its fanbase. But he didn’t mince words, showing the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree when it comes to being competitive.
“We expect to beat the Patriots rather handily, frankly,” Brady Sr. said.
“It’s not a matter of walking out of town and being unhappy. He had a happy 20 years there and most successful 20 years there. Now he’s in another place with another opportunity to win. That’s great. And the Patriots have reloaded … ” Brady Sr. said.
“From my take on it, I think it’s gonna be great. I get to have a favorite team in the AFC and a favorite team in the NFC. And then they play on the fourth week of the year. It’s been a really — I’m thrilled for this.”
As far as the possibility of Brady breaking the career passing record (he is currently 1,154 yards behind Drew Brees) in Foxborough, Brady Sr. said, “I think that the fans at Gillette will embrace him until the opening kickoff, and then they’re gonna boo the hell out of him, which is great.
“I think the fans appreciate everything he’s done. I assume that the fans have appreciated everything he’s done for them for 20 years, but at the same time they’re Patriots fans, they’re not Buccaneers fans. So while you’re rooting for Tommy, you’re rooting against the Buccaneers.”
Brady Sr. expressed great sentiment for his family’s time in New England.
“How do you do anything but appreciate everything what the Krafts have done for him, and Belichick has done for him? The coaching staff — these guys have been in the trenches for 20 years together,” Brady Sr. said.
But even Dad isn’t clear on how long his son will continue playing. Brady signed a contract extension this offseason to free up cap space — which was largely responsible for the Bucs being able to return all 22 Super Bowl starters on offense and defense — and it will keep him in Tampa Bay for two more years. But Father Time waits for no one.
“While he’s happy now, I think he’s starting to realize that the … career is coming to an end and he’s just savoring every moment as he walks down the final stretches — whether it’s next one year, two years or 12 years,” Brady Sr. said.
According to Vivid Seats, the average ticket price for the game on Oct. 3 is $1,370, with prices as high as $12,000 on Ticketmaster.
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Meanwhile, Brady the Younger tells Hookinkie Radio that his knee operation was more than just a routine scope. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:
Typically, we hear that NFL players have had “minor surgery,” otherwise known as surgery on someone other than you. Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady did not have “minor surgery” on his knee.
Brady described the procedure as “pretty serious knee surgery” in his recent appearance on Hoodinkie radio (nothing that no one knows what it is has ever before gotten so much NFL publicity).
“I had a pretty serious knee surgery this offseason, which is the first surgery I’ve had in about 12 years,” Brady said, via Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times. “I was really interested to see how it was going to go, because last year it just took a lot. Every week I was kind of tending to my knee, and I thought I would love to see a season where I can focus on some other strength stuff that I want to do, some other technique stuff where I’m not just focused on protecting my knee all the time.”
Brady suffered a torn ACL in Week One of the 2008 season in the same knee that recently underwent “pretty serious surgery.”
“So It’s been pretty intense this offseason from that standpoint, because it’s been six and a half weeks that I’ve been dealing with the rehab process,” Brady said. “The season went pretty long, obviously into February. It’s just now that I’m starting to feel like the offseason is happening. And I’m going to blink my eyes and the offseason is going to be over.”
If you think you blinked your eyes and missed Brady’s name on the injury report with a knee problem in 2020, you didn’t. The Buccaneers never disclosed Brady as having any type of injury. Not once. Other than getting a handful of “not injury related” Wednesdays off, his name never appeared on the practice report.
The league rarely takes action against teams that fail to disclose injuries. Often, the player says enough about it (e.g., Brett Favre in 2009, talking about his 2008 partially torn biceps tendon) to force the league to take action. Whether Brady’s comments are enough to get his knee surgery on the league’s radar screen remains to be seen.
As usual, the DB says this is no big deal. Brady played every game. There was no doubt he would play any game. He did not need to be on an injury report.
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AFC WEST
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DENVER
Call the Broncos if you are interested in getting WR DaeSEAN HAMILTON on the cheap. NFL.com:
The Broncos tried to move wide receiver DaeSean Hamilton before the draft. And they’re still not closing the door that they can swing a trade now.
Denver received trade calls on Thursday following initial reports that he would be waived, NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo reported. As it stands currently, Hamilton has not been officially waived and the door is still open for a trade, Garafolo reported.
The Broncos have put together an impressive WR room with Courtland Sutton , Jerry Jeudy , K.J. Hamler and Tim Patrick, who caught a career-high 51 passes last year. The other three were taken in the first or second rounds of the past three drafts.
All that buying has Denver selling on Hamilton, a 2018 fourth-round selection by the Broncos. Expect some movement on Hamilton soon, whether that’s him being traded or waived. He was mostly a reserve for the Broncos yet produced when he played, catching 81 passes and five touchdowns over three seasons.
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AFC NORTH
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BALTIMORE
One of Baltimore’s free agent WRs goes back a long way with QB LAMAR JACKSON. Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com:
It might be graduation season, but the Baltimore Ravens have a high school reunion planned for quarterback Lamar Jackson.
Wide receiver Donte Sylencieux, one of nine undrafted rookies signed by the Ravens on Thursday, was Jackson’s favorite target when they played at Boynton Beach Community High School in Florida. Sylencieux caught 10 touchdown passes in two seasons with Jackson.
Sylencieux totaled 59 catches in three seasons at Graceland University — an NAIA school in Iowa — and is considered a long shot to make the Ravens. Baltimore selected two wide receivers in this year’s draft, including first-rounder Rashod Bateman, and added Sammy Watkins in free agency.
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CLEVELAND
Mike Clay of ESPN.com on all the reasons the Browns are among the NFL’s best teams in 2021.
The Cleveland Browns are one of the best teams in the NFL and a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
When was the last time you heard someone make that statement with a straight face? It has certainly been a long time for the Browns, but their emergence is hardly a surprise if you’ve been paying attention.
The Browns reached a franchise low point when they finished with the dreaded 0-16 record in 2017, but their Sashi Brown-induced rebuild was already underway, and a strong 2018 offseason set the foundation for their inevitable ascension to contender status in the AFC. The Browns jumped to 7-8-1 in 2018 before stumbling to 6-10 in 2019 and then making a big leap in 2020 with an 11-5 regular season — followed by a playoff win over the division-rival Steelers. It was their most wins and first playoff victory since 1994.
Of course, naysayers will point out Cleveland’s strong 2020 campaign was fluky. The Browns were the only one of 14 playoff teams with a negative regular-season scoring differential (minus-11). Of their 11 regular-season wins, eight were against teams with losing records, and another was a Week 17 game against Pittsburgh’s backups. Cleveland went 0-2 and was outscored 85-48 in two games against the division-rival Ravens, and despite beating Pittsburgh in the playoffs, it was also crushed by the eventual division champs 38-7 in Week 3. Cleveland also lost in the playoffs to a Chiefs team that was without Patrick Mahomes in the fourth quarter. And, worst of all, they lost a regular-season game to the Jets.
There are some legitimate points in there, and Cleveland will need to overcome Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Kansas City in order to punch its ticket to Super Bowl LVI. So, the question is why now? Why will the Browns finally be able to get it done this time around? Here’s the reasoning behind Cleveland’s case as a legitimate Super Bowl contender in 2021.
The young quarterback has a lot of help
I’ll get to said “young quarterback” shortly, but let’s start with his supporting cast. After all, a highly productive and talented offense was the primary reason for the Browns’ 2020 emergence.
Cleveland’s offensive line — a key component to successful team building — was tops in the NFL by most objective measures last season, and all five starters will be back in 2021. That includes 2020 first-round pick Jedrick Wills Jr., who was a serviceable left tackle as a 21-year-old rookie, and common logic suggests he’ll take a step forward in his second season. Reigning first-team All-Pro right tackle Jack Conklin ranked in the top 10 in Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade and pass block win rate among tackles.
On the interior, center JC Tretter (top five in PFF grade and pass block win rate) and left guard Joel Bitonio (No. 1 at the position in pass block win rate and PFF’s fifth-highest-graded guard) were their usually dominant selves. And right guard Wyatt Teller was a Cinderella story, as the unheralded 2018 fifth-round pick came out of nowhere to finish as PFF’s top-graded guard while being voted to the All-Pro second team.
Cleveland also has a deep group of offensive skill position players. Odell Beckham Jr. has missed significant action due to injuries in recent years, but the 28-year-old is still one of the league’s best wide receivers when healthy. We saw that last season when he accounted for 391 yards and four TDs in six full games. Reliable Jarvis Landry returns as the slot man, too. The 28-year-old has never finished a season with fewer than 72 receptions and ranks third in the category since he was drafted in 2014.
Cleveland’s WR depth is a bit of a question mark, but Rashard Higgins was solid in Beckham’s place last season, and the team spent a third-round pick on the speedy Anthony Schwartz in April.
Of course, Cleveland has built a roster with quality talent and depth at running back (Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt form the league’s best RB duo) and tight end (Austin Hooper, David Njoku and Harrison Bryant), which has allowed head coach and playcaller Kevin Stefanski a ton of flexibility with personnel packages. Cleveland ranked 29th in three-plus WR sets (43%) last season but second in multiple TE sets (50%) and 10th in two-plus RB sets (15%).
Fourteen offensive skill position players handled at least 70 snaps for the Browns last season, and all 14 of them remain on the 2021 roster. Considering how well they performed last season, that’s a very good thing.
Baker Mayfield looks legit
Any offensive analysis is incomplete without a thorough look at the most important position in football: quarterback. And Mayfield is entering a critical season of his career.
The 2018 first overall pick has had his ups and downs, and Cleveland will need to decide whether or not he deserves an extremely expensive long-term contract extension. Mayfield will have no excuses this season, as he’ll benefit from arguably the league’s best supporting cast. If he plays good ball, Cleveland has a franchise quarterback and is a Super Bowl contender, while Mayfield becomes one of the richest players in the NFL. If he plays poorly, the Browns could go back to the drawing board next offseason.
Mayfield has looked good in two of his first three NFL seasons. As far as rookie QBs go, he was outstanding in 2018. Cleveland’s 2019 season was such a mess that it’s tempting to not hold it against him. And most recently in 2020, Mayfield was arguably one of the league’s 10 most effective quarterbacks. He ranked 11th in QBR, 14th in PFF grade and 12th in net yards per attempt, with only a who’s who of the league’s best QBs ahead of him in most categories.
Perhaps the biggest reason for optimism that Mayfield is the real deal is the way he finished the 2020 season. After suffering through a three-game stretch of horrific wind and weather during Weeks 8-11, Cleveland leaned less on its running game and more on Mayfield. He responded well in the team’s final eight games (two during the playoffs) with 16 TDs and two INTs while averaging 272.5 yards per game. Mayfield was already establishing himself as a capable NFL starter, but his finish to 2020 suggests he can be even more.
Cleveland’s defense is the most improved unit in the NFL
The elephant in the room when talking about the Browns is a defense that ranked 25th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA and no better than average in forced turnovers, sacks, yardage allowed and points allowed last season.
The team’s front office decided that wasn’t good enough, so the Browns cleaned house during the offseason. And when I say “cleaned house,” I mean it. Of the team’s top 10 players in terms of defensive snaps played last season, only two remain on the 2021 roster: stars Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward. Often times, this sort of development is bad news, but Cleveland upgraded at nearly every position.
Edge
The team’s edge rushing group is, of course, led by 2020 first-team All-Pro Garrett. The 25-year-old racked up double-digit sacks in each of the past three seasons, and his 25.7% pass rush win rate was third best among edge rushers in 2020.
One of Cleveland’s most impactful offseason moves was the addition of former first overall pick Jadeveon Clowney as Garrett’s running mate. Clowney’s critics will point out his sackless 2020 campaign and recent durability woes, but the vilification is not especially warranted. On the former, Clowney’s 18.4% pass rush win rate ranked 17th among 81 edge rushers with 200-plus pass-rushing attempts last season. And that was a “bad” year for him after he ranked top five in the category in both 2018 and 2019.
As for his perceived injury red flag, yes, Clowney missed nine games last season, but he had missed a total of five games during the previous four seasons (2016-19). Clowney is only 28 years old and a strong candidate for a rebound campaign opposite Garrett.
Both Garrett and Clowney figure to see fewer double-teams when on the field together, and their presence could also free up newcomer Takkarist McKinley for more pressure and sacks. Though he missed most of 2020 and has struggled with consistency, McKinley’s 24.0% pass rush win rate since he was drafted in 2017 is fifth best among edge rushers.
Secondary
Another strength for Cleveland is its overhauled secondary. Ward has emerged as one of the league’s top corners and will be joined in the starting lineup by Troy Hill, who played 95% of the snaps for the Rams’ elite 2020 defense. Hill has the ability to kick to the slot in nickel, which opens the door for either first-round rookie Greg Newsome II or 2019 second-round pick Greedy Williams — who was effective as a rookie but missed all of 2020 with a shoulder injury — to step in as the team’s third corner. That’s a very good group with elite upside.
At safety, Cleveland signed another former Rams standout in John Johnson III. Johnson played a Rams-high 1,116 of a possible 1,118 snaps last season and was one of the top available free agents on the market. And the 25-year-old was PFF’s third-highest-graded safety in 2020. Ronnie Harrison would be a serviceable running mate for Johnson, but he has competition, as 2020 second-round pick Grant Delpit is expected back after missing his rookie season with an Achilles injury. Again, this has the potential to be a very good, and perhaps elite, unit.
Tackle and linebacker
The potential weak spots on the Cleveland defense are on the interior defensive line and off-the-ball linebacker. Up front, Cleveland signed Malik Jackson and Sheldon Day, will get Andrew Billings back from the COVID opt-out list and will expect production from recent mid-round picks Jordan Elliott and Tommy Togiai. It’s also possible Sheldon Richardson (a cap casualty after the Clowney signing) returns at a lesser salary. That would certainly solidify the unit, but for now, there is plenty of uncertainty.
At linebacker, it will be a competition between incumbents Malcolm Smith, Sione Takitaki, Mack Wilson and Jacob Phillips, as well as free-agent signing Anthony Walker and rookies Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (second round) and Tony Fields II (fifth round). Considering Cleveland figures to lean on more three-safety sets, it really only needs standout play from one or two of these players.
Despite the question marks, Cleveland is extremely strong where it counts most, at edge and in the secondary, which positions it to be a top-10 defense on paper. That’s a vast improvement from where this unit was exactly one year ago.
Kevin Stefanski is an asset
Coaching matters, and the past few seasons in Cleveland provide some pretty strong evidence of that. Cleveland had a playoff-caliber roster when it struggled to six wins under Freddie Kitchens in 2019, but when it upgraded to Stefanski last offseason, the former Vikings offensive coordinator maximized the team’s roster talent en route to a five-game improvement in wins. Appropriately, he was named the coach of the year by the AP, PFWA and Sporting News.
Stefanski is only 38 but has emerged as one of the league’s top offensive minds. He has been a playcaller for two full NFL seasons, and both of his offenses overcame preseason question marks and/or key injuries en route to emerging as high-scoring and efficient units. That includes a 2019 Minnesota offense that ranked ninth in offensive DVOA and a 2020 Cleveland unit that ranked 10th.
The AFC can be had
Aside of the Browns, the Chiefs, Ravens and Bills remain the obvious favorites in the AFC, but will anyone else join them? I think you could make the case that eight of the league’s 12 best teams reside in the NFC. The Patriots and perhaps the Broncos and Chargers have potential — but also significant question marks. The Dolphins and Colts both won 10-plus games last season, but I’m expecting a step back for both in 2021.
One glaring omission from the list is the Steelers. Pittsburgh looked like a powerhouse while beating up on bad teams during most of 2020, but things came to a head down the stretch, as the Steelers lost four of their final five games (including the Week 17 rest game).
Pittsburgh’s defense still has plenty of talent, but it’s not quite as good as it was last season after the offseason departures of Bud Dupree, Steven Nelson and Mike Hilton. Offensively, the team’s skill position players are very good, but Ben Roethlisberger’s play slipped last season, as he finished outside the top 20 in QBR, PFF grades and net yards per attempt. Perhaps most concerning is a Steelers offensive line that is arguably the worst in the NFL after losing three starters during the offseason. Only two linemen on the roster played more than 340 snaps in 2020.
This is all a long way of saying that a potential decline by the Steelers plays right into the Browns’ hands as a legitimate AFC threat.
The schedule may be the division’s easiest
Though the Browns made the playoffs last season, they finished third in the AFC North. That’s notable as it pertains to the 2021 schedule. The division-champion Steelers’ unique games will be against the Bills, Titans and Seahawks, and the second-place Ravens’ uniques are against the Dolphins, Colts and Rams. The Browns, meanwhile, draw the Patriots, Texans and Cardinals.
Based on current rosters, I have the Browns projected to have the league’s 15th-toughest schedule, compared to 11th toughest for Baltimore, fifth toughest for Cincinnati and the second toughest — and toughest in the AFC — for Pittsburgh. It’s worth noting that the Browns open their season at Kansas City, which will be an opportunity to quickly establish themselves as an AFC powerhouse.
The bottom line
When I wrote my aforementioned Browns hype piece back in 2018, I wrapped it up with a “bottom line” section just like this one. I said: “The Browns are probably still one good offseason away from contending in the AFC.” As it turned out, they were two offseasons away from a return to the postseason.
Today, things are different. This is no longer just a potential playoff contender. If the Browns are anything less than legitimate threats to Kansas City for the AFC crown, the season will be a letdown.
In the words of legendary Browns coach Paul Brown, “Feathered with hoarfrost, skeletal trees loom closer; fog shrouded arches.” I have no idea what that means, but he added: “Leave as little to chance as possible. Preparation is the key to success.”
The coach is in place. The quarterback is ready. Top to bottom, the roster is one of the best in the NFL. The preparation has been done. Time will tell if this group can get Cleveland its first league title since 1964 — or if it’ll just end up covered in hoarfrost.
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AFC SOUTH
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HOUSTON
Attorney Tony Buzbee doesn’t just want money for his injured clients or conviction for QB DESHAUN WATSON. He wants the NFL to suspend him, limiting his ability to pay a juicy settlement. Michael Rothstein of ESPN.com:
Tony Buzbee, the attorney for the 22 women suing Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson, expressed concern on Wednesday over how the National Football League is handling its investigation. The lawsuits allege sexual assault and inappropriate conduct.
Buzbee, in speaking to Fox 26 in Houston, said “some of the women did not feel like they were being respected” during their first three meetings with NFL investigators, which he told Fox led to him attending a fourth meeting between the league’s investigative group and his clients.
Buzbee told the television station that four of his clients met with the league’s lead investigator, Lisa Friel, and that he has “probably four more women who want to meet with the NFL” but is not sure whether he’s going to let them speak with the league’s investigators.
In his interview, Buzbee did not say what the league did to potentially make his clients feel disrespected. Watson is being sued by 22 women in civil court, and being investigated by the Houston Police Department, over claims ranging from inappropriate touching to sexual assault of massage therapists from March 2020 until March 2021.
“The allegations are very concerning and the league immediately began investigating the matter under the NFL’s Personal Conduct Policy,” NFL spokesman Brian McCarthy said in an email to ESPN on Thursday. “The investigation includes gathering information, monitoring law enforcement developments and conducting interviews with relevant people willing to participate with counsel present.
“Throughout her decades-long career as the chief of the sex crimes unit in the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office and most recently as the NFL’s special counsel for investigations for the last six years, Lisa has earned a stellar reputation as a consummate professional who conducts investigations and interviews with compassion and fairness in an effort to determine the truth.”
Buzbee also told Fox that eight to 10 of his clients have met with the Houston Police Department and that he was pleased with how the Houston PD has worked with his clients. In March, Buzbee had said publicly that he wasn’t comfortable with his clients going to the Houston police. After a complainant went to the Houston Police Department, however, police opened an investigation into allegations against Watson.
On Thursday, a Houston Police Department spokesperson said the investigation into allegations against Watson is “ongoing” but would not say how many women have spoken with police.
Buzbee also told Fox there are no plans to settle the case between Watson and the women suing him.
Rusty Hardin, Watson’s attorney, confirmed Buzbee’s assertion that no settlement talks were taking place. However, in a statement released Thursday afternoon, Hardin suggested Buzbee has attempted to settle the case on several occasions.
“While we have never approached Mr. Buzbee about a settlement, he has approached us on numerous occasions in the past about the possibility of a settlement,” the statement read. “We have made clear all along that there would be no settlement unless the terms are made public and all participants are allowed to speak in their own defense at all times. We want none of the participants — the plaintiffs or Mr. Watson — muzzled by a settlement agreement. Mr. Buzbee does not feel the same.
“I am a little bemused by Mr. Buzbee pronouncing piously that his clients are not going to settle and that they want their cases to play out in court. The fact that this whole thing started with his attempt to extort money and avoid court shows that irony is not dead. I guess it has just been raised to a new level.”
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THIS AND THAT
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BEST FITS FOR REMAINING FREE AGENTS
Ben Linsey of ProFootballFocus.com places the best remaining free agents:
CB RICHARD SHERMAN: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Sherman recently told ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith that he’d held talks with two of his previous employers, the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks, in addition to the Las Vegas Raiders and New Orleans Saints. However, the Raiders’ decision to sign Casey Hayward Jr. likely takes Gruden & Co. out of the running.
When it comes to meaningfully contributing to a contending team, Seattle may make the most sense for Sherman. They have two of Sherman’s former teammates in San Francisco — D.J. Reed Jr. and Ahkello Witherspoon — in addition to fourth-round rookie Tre Brown and Tre Flowers as the top options on the depth chart as of now. It’s a relatively young (and shaky) group for a team with playoff aspirations in a competitive NFC West.
Sherman — PFF’s highest-graded cornerback in 2019 — could step in and add value immediately as a starter while serving as a mentor for the other players at the position.
EDGE MELVIN INGRAM III: MIAMI DOLPHINS
The combination of Ingram’s age (32) and injury history (he has played only 20 games in the last two years) was always going to depress his market this offseason, but I still think there’s a good chance that he provides more value than most of the free-agent edge defenders on the deals they’ve signed in recent months. Ingram may not have recorded any sacks in 2020, but his 12.8% pressure rate was still a top-25 mark among qualifiers. He can still get after the quarterback.
The Dolphins added Miami edge rusher Jaelan Phillips in the first round of this year’s draft, but they could still use an additional pass-rushing threat on the edge to rotate with him and Emmanuel Ogbah.
Miami’s defense has taken a massive step forward over the last two seasons under Brian Flores. Ingram could continue to elevate it in a rotational pass-rushing role.
T MITCHELL SCHWARTZ: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
An offseason back surgery muddies the picture for Schwartz heading into next season. However, he stands out as one of the clear top remaining free agents if he’s able to work his way back to full strength. His 86.2 PFF grade across five seasons with the Chiefs ranked third among 43 qualifying right tackles in the NFL.
The Chiefs haven’t been shy about throwing resources at their offensive line this offseason, but right tackle remains one of the weaker links up front. Former third-round pick Lucas Niang will compete with Mike Remmers for the job as things stand right now. It’s hard to imagine that Kansas City wouldn’t feel more secure with Schwartz back on the roster and ready to return to his old spot when healthy.
CB STEVEN NELSON: NEW YORK JETS
There is a lot to like about what the Jets have done this offseason. They have made a concerted effort to build around No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson with additions such as Corey Davis, Elijah Moore and Alijah Vera-Tucker. New York also added one of the best pass-rushers available this offseason in Carl Lawson.
The position that they neglected in that process was cornerback, and their projected starting trio of Blessuan Austin, Bryce Hall and Javelin Guidry is now in the running for worst in the NFL.
Nelson’s release from Pittsburgh this offseason was due to money rather than poor play. Over the past four seasons, he has allowed a completion percentage of just 55.0% into his coverage, 10th at the position. He’s one of the better fits still available for Robert Saleh’s zone-heavy defense.
T RUSSELL OKUNG: PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Pittsburgh’s decisions this offseason, ranging from restructuring Ben Roethlisberger’s contract to drafting immediate contributors such as Najee Harris and Pat Freiermuth with their first two picks in the 2021 NFL Draft, indicate that they want to make one last run before looking toward the future. If that’s the case, it makes sense to bring on a reliable veteran to man the left tackle position on a one-year deal.
The Steelers are currently trending toward starting fourth-year man Chukwuma Okorafor at left tackle after earning a 57.4 PFF grade in his first year as a starter on the right side in 2020. Zach Banner is expected to return from injury to man the right side. That duo has combined for 1,653 snaps in seven NFL seasons, while Okung has notched nearly 9,000 snaps in 11 years to go along with an 80.9 career grade.
He would bring some stability to the left side in Pittsburgh’s effort for one final push with Roethlisberger.
LB K.J. WRIGHT: DENVER BRONCOS
Wright showed this past season in Seattle that there is still gas in the tank as he gets set to enter his 11th NFL season, as he earned a 75.7 PFF grade on over 1,000 defensive snaps. That overall grade ranked seventh among all off-ball linebackers behind only Fred Warner, Bobby Wagner, Eric Kendricks, Lavonte David, Demario Davis and Blake Martinez.
Denver has one of the stronger rosters in the NFL outside of the quarterback position, though linebacker has been thrown around as a position where they could look to improve. Penn State’s Micah Parsons was commonly linked to Denver in the pre-draft process, and they could use another option to compete for snaps with Alexander Johnson and Josey Jewell. Wright’s coverage ability, in particular, would be welcome in Vic Fangio’s defense.
S MALIK HOOKER: DALLAS COWBOYS
It seems as though the Cowboys have been searching for a safety for years. They went heavy on defense in the 2021 NFL Draft, but they didn’t really address the safety position in that process. Hooker, who was brought in for a visit along with free-agent signing Damontae Kazee, should still be on the table as a player capable of playing single-high safety in Dan Quinn’s defense.
Injuries have kept Hooker from truly breaking out at any point across his first four years in the NFL, but he has been effective when healthy. Hooker earned a career-high 79.2 PFF grade in his healthiest year back in 2018 and has the kind of range necessary to be a playmaking single-high safety. That’s something the Dallas roster is currently missing. Signing Hooker to a one-year, low-risk deal to compete with Kazee increases the chance that the Cowboys hit on that skill set.
CB BRIAN POOLE: CAROLINA PANTHERS
Simply drafting Jaycee Horn at eighth overall raises the talent level of Carolina’s secondary, but there is no clear starting slot cornerback on the roster after the Panthers let Corn Elder walk in free agency. None of their top three cornerbacks — Horn, Donte Jackson and A.J. Bouye — are natural fits inside. Poole, meanwhile, has been one of the best nickel defenders in the league over his last two seasons with the Jets.
Poole’s 76.9 PFF grade when lined up in the slot since 2019 ranked sixth among players with at least 500 snaps in the alignment. He not only gave New York solid play in coverage; he was also a contributor against the run, earning a 91.3 run-defense grade from the slot. Poole would fill a clear need on Carolina’s young defense.
DI SHELDON RICHARDSON: GREEN BAY PACKERS
It’s been a few seasons since Richardson has been a truly dominant force, as he was early in his career with the Jets. He has been just about as steady as they come up front, though. Richardson has never played fewer than 650 defensive snaps or graded below 68.0 in his eight NFL seasons. He can be relied on to give you some interior pressure on the quarterback and hold up against the run.
That should be appealing to Green Bay after struggling to find any sort of consistent contributor alongside Kenny Clark on the defensive line over the past few seasons. The Packers’ best options for that spot at the moment are guys like Tyler Lancaster and Dean Lowry and the hope that Kingsley Keke can take the next step in his career. Richardson would give them a little more certainty along the defensive line in a time where there’s little of that to go around in Green Bay.
C AUSTIN REITER: LOS ANGELES RAMS
There’s something satisfying about the Chiefs signing 2020 Rams center Austin Blythe only for the Rams to later sign Kansas City’s former starter at the position. Los Angeles didn’t have many draft picks to work with in the 2021 NFL Draft, and the picks they did have went primarily toward the defense and adding speed at wide receiver in the form of Tutu Atwell.
That leaves their options at center thin. The Rams can either roll with Brian Allen, who last started nine games in 2019 and picked up a 58.6 PFF grade, or move Austin Corbett to center after starting at both guard spots over the past two years. Reiter provides a better option than both of those alternatives. He would help provide a clean pocket for Matthew Stafford in his first year in Los Angeles following three straight seasons with a pass-blocking grade of at least 77.7 for Kansas City.
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