The Daily Briefing Friday, May 29, 2020
AROUND THE NFLDaily Briefing |
The 4th-and-15 onside kick replacement failed to gain enough votes, much to the DB’s dismay. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:
The proposed alternative to onside kicks was not passed by NFL owners at their virtual league meeting on Thursday.
Tom Pelissero of NFL Media reports that the proposal to allow teams to try a fourth-and-15 play from their own 25-yard-line as a way to regain possession in lieu of an onside kick has been tabled. There will be further discussion on the proposal in the future, which did not come up for a formal vote on Thursday.
Per Pelissero, an informal show of hands showed that the proposal would not have passed in such a vote.
PFT reported on Thursday that some opponents of the proposed change believed that it would lead to the elimination of the kickoff altogether. The NFL changed kickoff rules a couple of years ago with an eye toward player safety and some of them, particularly the inability for members of the coverage team to take a running start, have contributed to a drop in successful onside kicks when it’s obvious a team is going to try one.
A drop in comebacks meant less excitement late in some games, which was part of the reason why the alternative was proposed. For now, though, that excitement will have to come from other methods.
NFC NORTH
DETROIT
The Lions are looking to extend T TAYLOR DECKER. Kyle Meinke of MLive.com:
The Detroit Lions have spoken to left tackle Taylor Decker about a possible contract extension, although negotiations remain in the very early stages.
“Nothing major,” Decker said on Thursday during a video conference with reporters. “Obviously, ‘Hey, we like you.’ We like you sort of thing, but nothing major.”
Decker, the first draft pick of the Bob Quinn era, is entering the final year of the rookie deal he signed after going 16th overall to the Lions in 2016. He enjoyed a very nice rookie, although suffered a shoulder injury the following offseason and has been up and down since.
He started last season with an awful showing in Arizona, where he now makes his offseason home, allowing a season-worst two sacks, seven total pressures and suffering an injury that forced him to sit out the following week’s game against the Chargers. But he returned to form after that, proved to be Detroit’s best offensive lineman in the last weeks of the season and climbed all the way to 20th among offensive tackles according to ProFootballFocus, not bad considering the rough start to the season.
Frank Ragnow and Graham Glasgow enjoyed nice seasons on the interior as well, but Detroit did not make a legitimate push to re-sign Glasgow largely because of the money it knew it would have to spend elsewhere on the roster. That includes on the offensive line.
Detroit’s top free-agent signing was Halapoulivaati Vaitai, who got five years and $45 million to replace Rick Wagner at right tackle. Now it must turn its focus to the future of the all-important left tackle position, where Decker has been solid, though certainly no star. He’ll make a fully-guaranteed $10.35 million this season, then is eligible to become a free agent.
The Lions usually like to hand out these kind of extensions in late summer, so it’s not unusual nothing is done yet.
“Obviously I know it’s on the horizon, but it’s not something that’s really been a huge … a huge focus,” Decker said. “Obviously, it’s something that’s coming along in the future. It’s going to be important to me, but whenever that happens, it happens. I kind of leave that to my agent. That’s why he gets paid, and I just take care of being a good football player. Whenever that happens, it will happen, whatever conversations, you know.
“So far, there’s been a lot of challenges with the quarantines, Zoom meetings, coaches not being in the buildings, us not being able to travel back, so I’m sure that’s going to present challenges for that process.”
GREEN BAY
Coach Matt LaFleur offers a curious explanation for the drafting of QB JORDAN LOVE. Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:
Packers coach Matt LaFleur is pushing back against the idea that Green Bay was looking for a replacement for Aaron Rodgers in the draft.
LaFleur said that the Packers just ended up with Love because he was the best player left on their draft board after some other players were selected, and not because they were specifically ready to move on from Rodgers.
“It was just one of those situations where there were a couple guys targeted that had just previously been picked and Jordan was the next guy on the board, and so we went with the best player at the time,” LaFleur said on ESPN Radio in Wisconsin.
But that explanation flies in the face of the fact that the Packers traded up in the first round to draft Love. It’s one thing to see a player fall in your lap and draft him, but it’s something else to trade up to draft a player. That suggests not only that the Packers wanted Love specifically, but that they wanted him badly enough that they didn’t want to wait and risk some other team drafting him before their pick came up.
Rodgers remains the Packers’ starting quarterback for now, and LaFleur wants to keep him happy. But the reality is, the Packers wouldn’t have traded up for Love if they expected Rodgers to play out the remaining four years on his contract.
More from Patrik Walker of CBSSports.com:
So obviously, this begs a handful of questions.
The most prevalent being how’d Love end up being graded so highly that positional valuation never came into play, because it’s one thing to go with your BPA (Best Player Available), but it’s quite another to do so blindly with a still-capable future Hall of Famer present and tapping his foot waiting for a grab at a skill position. In clear need of a lethal complement to Devante Adams, and with Rodgers coming off of a 13-3 season wherein he threw for 4,002 yards and 26 touchdowns with only four interceptions, it’s difficult to interpret the Packers’ decision to select Love.
LaFleur is standing by the move though, while proclaiming his and the organization’s relationship with Rodgers is far from fractured.
“We talk four times a week whenever we get those opportunities to meet in those individual meetings,” LaFleur said. “And I feel really good about where we’re at. We both understand that this is a business.”
While Rodgers himself is publicly toeing that line as well, those behind the scenes, particularly Favre, rabidly dispute that notion. It would make sense the 36-year-old would feel slighted, and time will tell how it all shakes out, but what began as an offseason of promise for a Packers team who suddenly looked just a couple pieces shy from returning to the Super Bowl has devolved into one marred with questions about Rodgers’ future with the team.
LaFleur got his best available player in the draft, sure, but might find himself at odds with the best player on the team because of it.
NFC WEST
ARIZONA
More positive talk from the Cardinals, this time CB PATRICK PETERSON. Bob McManaman in the Arizona Republic:
For a guy who went missing at the start of last season and then didn’t really show up until the final four or five weeks, Patrick Peterson probably couldn’t have picked a better nickname for himself than “The Witness Protection Officer.”
The Cardinals’ cornerback, after all, wasn’t seen for months.
Peterson, though, was referring to the moniker he hung on himself during his heyday as one of the NFL’s premier shutdown corners when he was named a Pro Bowl defender for seven straight years from 2012-18. After a disappointing disappearing act a year ago, Peterson vows he will return with a vengeance in 2020.
During a wide-ranging interview with reporters on Thursday that lasted nearly a full hour, the 10-year veteran promised he’s going to be every bit as dominating as the Cardinals, whom he described multiple times as a “championship-caliber football team.”
“I’m not really into watch-this, prove-this, but I can promise you this: This is definitely going to be a big year. Just wait and see,” Peterson said. “To whoever is doubting me or to whoever don’t think I can still play at a high level, just wait and see.
“I’m pretty good. I used to call myself, ‘The Witness Protection Officer.’ I’m pretty good at putting people in witness protection and (defensive coordinator) Vance (Joseph) knows that and I know Vance is going to put me in the best position possible to put my hands on receivers, to be able to disrupt that timing between the receiver and the quarterback.”
Well, timing, as they say, is everything.
But for all the years that Peterson made life difficult for opposing receivers and offenses overall and was rewarded with regular invitations to the Pro Bowl, his timing couldn’t have been worse last offseason when he was popped with a positive test for using performance-enhancing drugs.
Peterson never denied it once the story broke, but because he apparently tried to cover it up earlier by using some type of masking agent, the league extended what would have been a four-game suspension to six to start the season. His absence, and the lack of his previous elite-level production, became one of the biggest factors in the Cardinals finishing 5-10-1.
By the time he got his legs fully back underneath him, the season was lost – just like he was.
“For me to jump back in the thick of things, maybe Superman can do that. But I’m not Clark Kent,” Peterson said. “I may have some Superman moments and some Superman ways, but it just wasn’t happening for me. Once I got back into groove, I felt unbelievable and that is what’s going to carry over to this year.”
To that end, Peterson is as optimistic as he’s ever been. During a recent appearance on The Hyperice Lab podcast, he said “this is probably the best football team I’ve ever been a part of on paper.” And Peterson wasn’t backtracking from that lofty praise on Thursday, either, suggesting that after all the promising offseason moves made by management and with all the other key returning pieces in place, “The sky is the limit for this football team.”
From the second-year leap in growth expected out of quarterback Kyler Murray, whom Peterson says “hasn’t even scratched the surface yet” to the unexpected trade acquisition of All-Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins – “That doesn’t just happen. That just doesn’t fall in your lap,” Peterson said – everything is trending in the right direction for the Cardinals.
Heck, the Cardinals have acquired the best receiver in football. Just ask him. Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com:
New Arizona Cardinals wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins thinks he’s the best pass-catcher in the NFL despite not having the type of consistency with quarterbacks that some of his peers have. And now that he’ll be paired with reigning rookie of the year Kyler Murray in a pass-happy offense, Hopkins believes he’ll put up the numbers to prove his belief.
“I definitely think I’m the best,” Hopkins said Thursday on the Jalen & Jacoby Show. “I know I’m the best. Mike’s my boy. I love [Saints wide receiver] Michael [Thomas] … but he knows if I had Drew Brees my whole career what these numbers would be. [Falcons wide receiver] Julio Jones knows if I had Matt Ryan my whole career. That’s my boy. I trained with Julio, too. He knows what these numbers would be.
“Those guys are definitely blessed to be in a position where, their whole career, they had a Pro Bowl quarterback — quarterback that they spent multiple seasons with. But I don’t complain. I don’t make excuses. I go out there and work.”
Hopkins caught passes from 10 different quarterbacks since he was drafted by the Houston Texans in 2013, but he had his most success — and most stability — with DeShaun Watson, who was drafted in 2017.
With Watson at quarterback, Hopkins caught 268 passes for 3,373 yards and 25 touchdowns in 38 games.
Hopkins’ yards from Watson were the eighth-most during that span. Overall, Hopkins has the third-most receiving yards since 2017 with 4,115 behind Jones and Thomas.
Finding stability with Murray like he had with Watson has been a point of excitement for Hopkins.
“Going into this situation with a guy, a young quarterback, that I know is gonna be my quarterback for the future, is great,” Hopkins said. “We’re able to build a chemistry, and hopefully, I’m able to play more than three seasons with a quarterback. I don’t think I’ve done that yet. So, I’m excited just to see how I’ll be able to play with a consistent quarterback.”
Hopkins was 11th in receiving last season with 1,165 yards along with seven touchdowns.
Since 2013, Hopkins has the third-most receiving yards and catches, second-most touchdowns and most targets in the NFL.
Playing with one quarterback and playing in a pass-happy offense has Hopkins believing he can fit into Kliff Kingsbury’s high-octane scheme “very well” and put up better numbers than he already has in his illustrious career.
“Oh yeah, absolutely,” Hopkins said. “Obviously I’ve played with a lot of quarterbacks and put up great numbers, being in offenses that necessarily weren’t a pass-first offense. So, myself, being a receiver, of course I see my stats going up.
“We have other great receivers out there — Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald and a lot of other guys out there — but I definitely see myself having one of my more productive seasons.”
SAN FRANCISCO
The 49ers are so excited to have T TRENT WILLIAMS in the fold, they are giving him money upfront before he ever suits up for SF. John Becker of BayAreaNewsGroup:
New 49ers left tackle Trent Williams, who didn’t get paid while sitting out last season during a contentious holdout with Washington, agreed to a restructured deal and will receive part of his $12.5 million salary up front, he told the NFL Network.
The 31-year-old Williams said on Ian Rapoport’s yet-to-be released “Rapsheeet + Friends” podcast the 49ers tweaked the final year of his contract to allow him to receive more money up front after they acquired him last month. Williams will still get roughly the same money for 2020, but for salary cap purposes, the up-front money will likely be a pro-rated signing bonus.
The seven-time Pro Bowl tackle will replace another standout tackle in Joe Staley, who announced his retirement on the same day Williams arrived from Washington in a trade for two mid-round draft picks.
Williams’ 10-year career in Washington had an ugly ending as he refused to suit up last season until he could find a suitable helmet to wear after the team misdiagnosed soft tissue sarcoma on his head.
Although Williams is scheduled to become a free agent at the end of the season, but neither he nor the 49ers are worried about that right now.
“We both agreed on we can take a wait-and-see approach,” Williams told reporters in April. “It’s last year of my deal. Obviously it’s an incentive for me to play well. They gave up a third-round (pick) next year, so they’re invested in the deal as well. Both parties are interested in something long term but I’m more than OK with just getting my feet wet and just playing it out.”
AFC WEST
DENVER
RB MELVIN GORDON points out that he is used to playing without hearing the cheers of adoring fans. Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:
If COVID-19 forces NFL teams to play in empty stadiums, Melvin Gordon says it won’t feel much different for him.
Gordon, who played his entire career for the Chargers before signing with the Broncos this offseason, noted that the Chargers played in front of plenty of empty seats.
“We didn’t have fans anyway,” Gordon said in an interview with Marcus Cromartie. “We didn’t have many Chargers fans at the game. . . . So I’m not missing much.”
The Broncos, of course, have a strong fan base, and if the NFL were to play in empty stadiums, Gordon’s current team would be losing a lot. But as Gordon notes, for teams without good home-field advantages, empty stadiums might not make much of a difference. And on the road, it would be beneficial.
AFC NORTH
BALTIMORE
EDGE MATT JUDON will settle for $16.8 million to avoid a dispute about what position he plays. Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com on the adults in the room on both sides:
When the Ravens announced that Matt Judon had agreed to sign his franchise tag on Thursday, it was unclear whether he was doing so as a defensive end or a linebacker. It turns out they agreed to split the difference.
Judon has agreed to a one-year contract with a guaranteed salary of $16.808 million, according to Tom Pelissero of NFL Media. The number they arrived at is the average of the $15.828 million franchise tag for linebackers and the $17.788 million franchise tag for defensive ends.
In the Ravens’ defense, Judon plays a hybrid position that could easily be described as either a defensive end or a linebacker. If the two sides hadn’t agreed to a compromise, they would have had to go before a neutral arbitrator who would have decided which position Judon plays for the purposes of the franchise tag.
It’s still possible that the whole thing will become moot, as the Ravens and Judon could agree to a long-term contract before the July 15 deadline. The fact that they agreed on this compromise bodes well for their ability to reach a long-term deal.
CLEVELAND
Glen Cook becomes a name to know. Mary Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain Dealer:
Browns GM Andrew Berry continues to put his stamp on the personnel staff, promoting Glenn Cook to Vice President of Player Personnel.
He’ll oversee the pro and college scouting departments, as first reported by Tyler Dunne of Bleacher Report.
Cook spent the previous four seasons as the Browns Assistant Director of Pro Scouting after spending four years with the Packers as a pro scout (2012-15).
Before that, he worked as a scouting assistant with the Colts in 2011, where he worked with Berry. Cook played linebacker for the University of Miami, being named the team’s Linebacker of the Year as a junior in 2006. After his time with the Hurricanes, he was drafted by the Cubs in the 46th round of the 2009 MLB draft and played in 34 rookie-league games for the club.
Berry has also hired Kwesi Adofo-Mensah as Vice President of Football Operations and Charles Walls as a national scout. He’s added former Colts GM Ryan Grigson to a full-time post as well. The Browns will announce other changes to the personnel staff in the next few days.
For those keeping score at home – Andrew Berry and Glenn Cook both represent successful employment justice hires, as does VP of Football Operations Kwesi Adofo-Mensah. So assuming that Ryan Grigson is outside the direct chain of command, the top three Browns football executives are African-Americans.
Adofo-Mensah’s background is non-traditional.
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah is the Manager of Football Research and Development for the 49ers where he has worked for 4 years. Kwesi leads the 49ers’ efforts to develop and implement advanced quantitative methods for game strategy and personnel evaluation. Prior to working in football, Kwesi traded Energy derivatives as an Executive Director in the Credit Suisse Commodities Proprietary Group before finishing his career as an Associate Portfolio Manager at Taylor Woods Capital Group. After growing up in southern New Jersey, Kwesi received in A.B. in Economics from Princeton University in 2003 and an M.A. in Economics from Stanford University in 2013.
Not that it really makes any difference at this point, but we cannot determine if Adofo-Mensah played football either in high school or at Princeton.
THIS AND THAT
UNLOCKING THE LOCKDOWN
A setback for live sports in golf on Thursday as the John Deere Classic, scheduled for July as the first PGA TOUR event with fans has now been cancelled.
For those who don’t know, the Deere is a huge community event in the Quad Cities (there are really five cities, but who is counting) which straddle the Mississippi River in the Free State of Iowa and LockDown Illinois.
Unfortunately for the Deere, the golf course is in Illinois. While the press release announcing the tournament’s demise for 2020 cited sponsor reluctance and logistical difficulties, the mayor of Silvis, Illinois hinted at the iron hand of the state’s LockDown Governor who has only made exceptions from his draconian policies for members of his family. Jim Meenan of the Quad Cities Times:
Silvis mayor Matt Carter thought things over a moment. Then he put his most powerful words together.
“We are living off Cook County’s numbers,” he said of Rock Island County. “For the John Deere Classic to be unable to go on this year, I think is truly unfair. It’s not really looking truth to numbers, upstate versus downstate.
The John Deere Classic’s 50th tournament was canceled Wednesday, though the Birdies for Charity program will go on with modifications. Tournament officials said Illinois’ reopening rules would only allow for gatherings of up to 50 people by the time the tournament would be held at TPC Deere Run in Silvis in mid-July.
“The entire state has to live with Chicago’s numbers when it comes to infection rates and death rates. And we are all suffering because of Chicago’s numbers.
“It’s truly unfortunate. It doesn’t truly reflect what’s going on in the Quad-Cities.”
As of Thursday, Scott and Rock Island counties have had 36 deaths from COVID-19, and 1,339 confirmed cases. Illinois has 115,833 cases statewide and 5,186 deaths.
The Silvis mayor believes it’s a huge psychological blow to the Quad-Cities, too.
“It’s almost like we have washed the whole year away,” he said. “As we continue on, it seems like everybody’s life is on hold to a certain extent.
Even though there have been few cases and deaths in the area, and practically no new cases now, the Governor of Illinois seems bent on winning the LockDown Governor of the Century Award.
However, the PGA TOUR still has upcoming events scheduled for the LockDown states of Michigan, Connecticut and riotous Minnesota, so we can foresee other Governors saying “Hold my beer.”
And we don’t think the John Deere developments bode well for Soldier Field in Chicago in August and beyond.
– – –
There is some good news in the Free States, as Texas declares open air sporting events can happen next week with limited spectators.
Texas will soon allow outdoor pro sports events to have spectators, but their numbers will be strictly limited.
Republican Gov. Greg Abbott has revised a decision to let pro sports leagues host events without fans starting in June as part of the states’ move to reopen amid the coronavirus pandemic.
Abbott’s new order allows outdoor stadiums to host fans up to 25 percent of their normal capacity. Leagues will have to apply to state health officials to be allowed to have fans. Indoor events will still be without spectators.
The PGA Tour plans to restart its season at Colonial in Texas on June 11-14 but has said it would not include fans.
The state has set up several guidelines for leagues to follow, including a recommendation that spectators and employees keep at least 6 feet apart from anyone not from their household. If that is not feasible, other measures such as face coverings and sanitation protocols should be followed.
Athletes will not be required to wear masks but the guidelines encourage them to be worn on the sidelines.
Ron DiSantis, the Governor of the Free State of Florida, is also holding out his state as a refuge for sports. He joined Clay Travis on his Outkick The Coverage Radio show on Friday morning:
Florida governor Ron DeSantis has been very open about the fact that the state of Florida will gladly welcome all sports that are interested in restarting play.
The Governor joined Clay on Outkick the Show on Friday to discuss.
“I’m really proud that of all the, most of the sporting events, I think other than the one NASCAR race, and we wanted that one in Florida too, but that they did it in South Carolina because most of the drivers are in that area. We’ve done two different charity golf, we’ve done UFC, we’ve had WWE. We are going to get a NASCAR race going in June, I believe. And then we’re looking to potentially be in Central Florida, the host of Major League Soccer and potentially the NBA. So, I’ve said very, very early, we welcome all this. It’s very important for our country. You’re never going to be back to normal if people don’t see sports on TV. And so, I think it’s something as a sports fan I just want to see because you know I haven’t had a lot of time to watch TV over the last couple months, but when I’m home at night and you turn on a game, they’re just not there. In fact, I think I had on the watch and stuff from 2000 watch the Fiesta Bowl last night.”
Clay also asked about fans returning to sporting events in Florida.
“So, we’re working on some stuff for June with some of the entities, but I think certainly by the fall we should assume that there’s going to be fans. I mean, if something changes you can always make arrangements, but I’m really frustrated when I hear people say ruling out fans for the fall already. Really? How could you even do that? I mean, you go back two months in terms of where we are and it’s like night and day. And so, nobody really knows how this thing is gonna go, but I think if you look, I think Asia, Europe peaked there, they’re on the decline, U.S. is on the decline. So, the assumption should be we’re going to play and we’re going to have fans. As you get closer, if something happens, then you can always make, you know, make different arrangements or accommodations, but to simply rule it out, I think is a huge mistake. And it’s also just from a psychological perspective, the message that sends to people, I think, is not the message that we want to be sending.”
QB COMMITMENT
An interesting exercise from Dan Graziano of ESPN.com as he asks how committed is each team to their current QB. But his answers, judged by cash, not confidence, will surprise you:
You know how you feel about your NFL team’s starting quarterback. Or maybe you don’t. Maybe your opinion on your QB changes from time to time, depending on whether he’s leading a fourth-quarter touchdown drive or throwing a backbreaking interception. You wouldn’t be alone on this.
Opinions vary and change, especially when it comes to quarterbacks. So when we want to settle a discussion about how committed each NFL team is to its starter, we have to look at the cold, hard numbers. And I’m not talking about yards or touchdowns or completion percentage. I’m talking about money.
As we did around this time last year, we wanted to take a look at each team and basically ask the question, “How married are they to their starting quarterback?” We do this by digging in, as best we can, on the contract figures and assessing how financially committed each team currently is to its starter. We look at how much more money is guaranteed, when non-guaranteed money becomes guaranteed, how much it would cost to cut or trade the player after this season, after next season and more.
In some cases, you might see your team’s quarterback on this list and dispute the ranking. You might say something along the lines of, “Graziano, are you nuts? How can you say the Chiefs aren’t more committed to Patrick Mahomes than the Panthers are to Teddy Bridgewater?” And of course, on some level, you have a point. But the level we’re dealing with here is a contractual one — a purely dollars-and-cents analysis of how committed each team is to its starter and how hard or easy it would be for them to move on if circumstances dictated that they must or should.
1. Los Angeles Rams
Starter: Jared Goff | Signed through: 2024
Tier: Locked-in vet | Ranking in tier: No. 1
Contract: Four-year, $134 million extension signed in September 2019, including approximately $57 million guaranteed at signing.
March 20 was a big day for Goff. On that day, he collected a $21 million 2020 roster bonus, his $25 million 2021 salary became fully guaranteed, his $2.5 million 2021 roster bonus became fully guaranteed and his $15.5 million 2022 roster bonus became fully guaranteed. This means the Rams will pay Goff $73 million in fully guaranteed money over the next three years, plus almost certainly his non-guaranteed $10 million 2022 salary on top of the $25 million signing bonus they gave him last fall.
The absolute soonest it would make sense for the Rams to get out of this contract is the spring of 2023, though they could do it in the spring of 2022 if they don’t mind paying him $15.5 million to not play for them that year.
2. Tennessee Titans
Starter: Ryan Tannehill | Signed through: 2023
Tier: Locked-in vet | Ranking in tier: No. 2
Contract: Four-year, $118 million contract signed in March 2020, including $62 million fully guaranteed at signing.
Tannehill helped lead the Titans to the AFC Championship Game in his contract year, and the team rewarded him with a whopper of a deal. Not only did he get a $20 million signing bonus and fully guaranteed salaries of $17.5 million this year and $24.5 million in 2021, but his $29 million salary in 2022 becomes fully guaranteed on the fifth day of the 2021 league year. That means he’s effectively guaranteed $91 million over the next three years (because the team isn’t cutting him next March and paying him $62 million for just 2020).
The Titans can easily get out of the final year of the deal if they aren’t happy with Tannehill, but this contract marries him to them for the next three years.
3. Minnesota Vikings
Starter: Kirk Cousins | Signed through: 2023
Tier: Locked-in vet | Ranking in tier: No. 3
Contract: Two-year, $66 million extension signed in March 2020, including $61 million fully guaranteed at signing.
Nobody is playing the quarterback contract game better than Cousins, who had the Vikings over a barrel this offseason and got an extra $66.5 million because of it. Cousins signed a fully guaranteed three-year, $84 million deal with Minnesota two years ago, and entering this offseason the Vikings were scheduled to pay him a fully guaranteed $29.5 million salary in 2020. Needing salary-cap space, they effectively tore up the final year of the previous deal and replaced it with a new three-year, $96 million deal.
Cousins got a $30 million signing bonus and fully guaranteed salaries of $9.5 million this year and $21 million in 2021. Plus, his $35 million 2022 salary becomes fully guaranteed in March 2021. So if they cut him before the third day of the 2021 league year, they’d still owe him $21 million (after paying him $39.5 million for 2020). And if they cut him after the third day of the 2021 league year, they’d owe him $56 million.
The Vikings are married to Cousins at least through 2021, and the odds are good that they’ll confront the same situation in the 2022 offseason that they had this year.
4. Cincinnati Bengals
Starter: Joe Burrow | Signed through: 2023
Tier: Rookie first-rounder | Ranking in tier: No. 1
Contract: Not signed yet, but it will be a four-year, fully guaranteed $36.19 million contract that includes a $28.8 million signing bonus and a team option for a fifth year in 2024.
It’s unusual for a No. 1 overall pick to get cut during his rookie deal. Worst case, he’s Mitchell Trubisky — the No. 2 pick in 2017 — and the frustrated Bengals are declining his 2024 option in the spring of 2023.
5. Seattle Seahawks
Starter: Russell Wilson | Signed through: 2023
Tier: Locked-in vet | Ranking in tier: No. 4
Contract: Four-year, $140 million extension signed in April 2019, including $70 million guaranteed at signing.
Wilson’s $18 million salary this year became fully guaranteed five days after the Super Bowl. Add that to his $5 million 2019 salary and his $65 million signing bonus, and the Seahawks will have paid him $88 million over two years since the extension was signed. Wilson has $19 million in salary coming in 2021, which is only injury-guaranteed at this point and doesn’t become fully guaranteed until five days after the next Super Bowl.
It’s hard to imagine Seattle cutting a healthy Wilson next offseason and incurring a $39 million dead-money charge. The first realistic chance for the Seahawks to get out of this deal is the 2022 offseason, by which time his contract carries a roster bonus due on the fifth day of the league year — a device that forces the team’s decision in time for the player to hit the free-agent market. Wilson will be just 33 at that point, and assuming he continues to play like Russell Wilson, the team could well be thinking about another extension.
6. Miami Dolphins
Starter: Tua Tagovailoa? | Signed through: 2023
Tier: Rookie first-rounder | Ranking in tier: No. 2
Contract: Four-year, $30.275 million fully guaranteed contract signed in May 2020. It includes a $19.579 million signing bonus, and the team holds a fifth-year option for 2024.
Yes, it’s possible (even likely?) that veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick will open the season as Miami’s starter. But the Dolphins are paying Fitzpatrick just $8 million this year, and just $4 million of that is guaranteed. They’re far more married to Tua, who slots in between Burrow and Justin Herbert in the same category.
Incidentally, the Dolphins are also currently scheduled to pay Josh Rosen $4.959 million in fully guaranteed salary over the next two years.
7. Los Angeles Chargers
Starter: Justin Herbert? | Signed through: 2023
Tier: Rookie first-rounder | Ranking in tier: No. 3
Contract: Not signed yet, but it will be a four-year, $26.6 million fully guaranteed contract with a $16.9 million signing bonus and a team option for a fifth year in 2024.
We don’t know whether Herbert or Tyrod Taylor will start for the Chargers in Week 1 of 2020, but Taylor is scheduled to make only $5 million in non-guaranteed salary this year. He’s not even certain, contractually, to be on the team when 2020 starts.
Herbert, the No. 6 pick in the 2020 draft, is the Chargers’ future at the position (at least they hope) and is in the same category as Burrow and Tagovailoa, albeit at a little bit less money given where he was picked relative to them.
8. Philadelphia Eagles
Starter: Carson Wentz | Signed through: 2024
Tier: Locked-in vet | Ranking in tier: No. 5
Contract: Four-year, $128 million extension signed in June 2019, including $66.5 million fully guaranteed at signing.
Wentz’s contract structure is built on staggered roster bonuses that were designed to help the Eagles navigate 2019 and 2020 salary-cap issues. He’s basically getting $30 million this year and $25.4 million fully guaranteed in 2021.
None of his salary is guaranteed beyond 2021, though $15 million of his 2022 salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s still on the team in March 2021. (It’s also worth noting, given Wentz’s history, that his 2022 salary is currently guaranteed for injury.) The remaining proration of the bonuses means the Eagles would incur a dead-money charge of about $24.5 million if they decided to move on from Wentz in the 2022 offseason. That’s a lot, but not impossible, especially if his injury issues persist and if 2020 second-round pick Jalen Hurts develops.
Wentz probably stays in Philly for more than the next two years, but the Eagles aren’t contractually married to him for any longer than that.
9. Atlanta Falcons
Starter: Matt Ryan | Signed through: 2023
Tier: Locked-in vet | Ranking in tier: No. 6
Contract: Five-year, $150 million extension signed in May 2018, including $94.5 million guaranteed at signing.
Ryan is making $20.5 million this year, and only $5.5 million of his $23 million 2021 salary is guaranteed. But due to the restructuring the Falcons did of Ryan’s contract after the 2019 season, they’d have to eat a nearly $50 million dead-money charge if they were to cut him in the 2021 offseason.
The soonest they could realistically get out of the deal would be two years from now, at which time the dead-money charge would be “only” $26.525 million. Ryan has two more years in Atlanta for sure, and probably at least three.
10. Green Bay Packers
Starter: Aaron Rodgers | Signed through: 2023
Tier: Clock is ticking | Ranking in tier: No. 1
Contract: Four-year, $134 million extension signed in August 2018, including $78.7 million guaranteed at signing.
We had Rodgers in the “locked-in vet” tier last year. But something happened in April that changed his circumstances. That something was the Packers’ selection of Utah State quarterback Jordan Love in the first round of the draft. As Rodgers admitted in a conference call two weeks ago, this makes it far less likely he finishes his career in Green Bay.
The structure of Rodgers’ contract, which includes a $6.8 million roster bonus due on the third day of the 2021 league year, make the permutations complicated. Suffice it to say that there would be a trade market for him, as he’s scheduled to earn around $25 million a year over the final three years of his deal. But the dead-money charges involved make it more likely the Packers trade him in 2022 than 2021. If they want out next year, they could save some cap hit by making him a post-June 1 cut.
Figure he has two more years left in Green Bay, unless the team wins big in the meantime and Love doesn’t develop the way it hopes. But if 2020 doesn’t go well and Love does advance quickly, Rodgers could be playing elsewhere as soon as 2021.
Love’s deal, once signed, will be a four-year deal worth about $12.4 million. The slot where he was picked (No. 26) hasn’t historically been able to get a full guarantee in the fourth year, though the team will hold a fifth-year option on him for 2024.
11. Arizona Cardinals
Starter: Kyler Murray | Signed through: 2022
Tier: Youngster on rookie deal | Ranking in tier: No. 1
Contract: Four-year, $35.159 million fully guaranteed contract signed in May 2019. It includes a team option for a fifth year in 2023.
Nothing about Murray’s rookie year gave the Cardinals cause to wonder if they’d made the right decision in ditching 2018 first-round pick Josh Rosen after one year. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 draft, Murray looks like a budding star who’ll almost certainly see the end of his rookie deal.
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Starter: Tom Brady | Signed through: 2021
Tier: Locked-in vet | Ranking in tier: No. 7
Contract: Two-year, $50 million contract signed in March 2020, including $35 million guaranteed at signing.
Brady is making $25 million this year, just like Drew Brees and Philip Rivers, but he also has a fully guaranteed $10 million roster bonus coming in 2021, which indicates that he and the team are both planning for him to be around for more than one season.
13. New York Giants
Starter: Daniel Jones | Signed through: 2022
Tier: Youngster on rookie deal | Ranking in tier: No. 2
Contract: Four-year, $25.6 million fully guaranteed contract signed in July 2019. It includes a team option for a fifth year in 2023.
Jones opens his second NFL season as the Giants’ starter after a promising rookie year. He has a new coaching staff, and the general manager who drafted him isn’t on the league’s coolest seat. But the Giants used the No. 6 pick in the 2019 draft on him, and he’d have to play poorly for an extended period of time in order for them to consider giving up. He has about $4 million in guaranteed salary due in 2022 alone.
14. Carolina Panthers
Starter: Teddy Bridgewater | Signed through: 2022
Tier: Clock is ticking | Ranking in tier: No. 2
Contract: Three-year, $63 million contract signed in March 2020, including $33 million guaranteed at signing.
Bridgewater is making $23 million this year, counting his $15 million signing bonus, and has $10 million of his $17 million 2021 salary fully guaranteed. That doesn’t mean it would keep Carolina from drafting a franchise quarterback of the future next year if Bridgewater flops and the team has a high draft pick.
It does give Bridgewater at least some security and makes it so the Panthers don’t have to look for a QB on next spring’s market.
15. New Orleans Saints
Starter: Drew Brees | Signed through: 2021
Tier: Vet in contract year | Ranking in tier: No. 1
Contract: Two-year, $50 million contract signed in March 2020, including $25 million guaranteed at signing.
Yes, it’s technically a two-year deal, and Brees could come back for $25 million in 2021. But we’re putting him in the “vet in contract year” tier because of the widespread belief that Brees is taking everything year by year and the Saints structured this as only a two-year deal for cap-management purposes.
New Orleans will incur dead-money charges on its cap for Brees after he’s gone, but that’s the price the team has been willing to pay to keep open its Super Bowl window.
16. Pittsburgh Steelers
Starter: Ben Roethlisberger | Signed through: 2021
Tier: Clock is ticking | Ranking in tier: No. 3
Contract: Two-year, $68 million extension signed in April 2019, including $37.5 million guaranteed at signing.
Roethlisberger restructured his contract in March to free up 2020 cap space for the Steelers. The problem is, the restructure raised his 2021 cap hit to $41.25 million, which feels like a lot for his age-39 season. Next offseason, the Steelers either will have to cut Roethlisberger by the third day of the league year and save $19 million in cap space or extend him again. Unless, of course, he decides to retire, which is always possible.
Regardless, the Steelers and Roethlisberger are effectively tied together for only one more year. As an established future Hall of Famer, Roethlisberger really isn’t in “prove-it time,” but he and the team are entering decision time.
17. Cleveland Browns
Starter: Baker Mayfield | Signed through: 2021
Tier: Youngster on rookie deal | Ranking in tier: No. 3
Contract: Four-year, $32.683 million fully guaranteed contract signed in July 2018. It includes a team option for a fifth year in 2022.
If you want to get technical, the Browns could cut Mayfield after the season and incur just a $10.4 million dead-money charge on their cap. But they’d still owe him a little over $5 million in salary and bonuses for 2021, which makes it unlikely. Plus, they still say they believe in him.
A bad year could get Cleveland looking toward the future at the position again. But for now, when the Browns look at their QB future, it’s still Mayfield.
18. New York Jets
Starter: Sam Darnold | Signed through: 2021
Tier: Youngster on rookie deal | Ranking in tier: No. 4
Contract: Four-year, $30.248 million fully guaranteed contract signed in July 2018. It includes a team option for a fifth year in 2022.
The No. 3 pick in the 2018 draft, Darnold has shown promise and is well-regarded by the Jets’ coaching staff and front office. A decision on his fifth-year option will be due next May, so this is a big year for him to continue to justify the team’s faith in him.
19. Washington Redskins
Starter: Dwayne Haskins | Signed through: 2022
Tier: Youngster on rookie deal | Ranking in tier: No. 5
Contract: Four-year, $14.417 million fully guaranteed contract signed in May 2019. It includes a team option for a fifth year in 2023.
Washington’s quarterback contract situation remains unique, as the team still owes the injured Alex Smith $16 million in fully guaranteed salary this year. We are projecting Haskins as the starter on the assumption that Smith doesn’t make it back from his injuries (which he very well might) and that the new coaching staff will start the 2019 first-round draft pick over Kyle Allen.
Regardless, Haskins got an $8.5 million signing bonus a year ago and has a total of about $5.42 million in fully guaranteed salary coming his way over the next three years.
20. Buffalo Bills
Starter: Josh Allen | Signed through: 2021
Tier: Youngster on rookie deal | Ranking in tier: No. 6
Contract: Four-year, $21.183 million fully guaranteed contract signed July 2018. It includes a team option for a fifth year in 2022.
Allen is in the same boat as fellow 2018 first-rounders Mayfield and Darnold, albeit at a lower salary because he was picked later. Having led the Bills to the postseason last year, the arrow is pointing up.
21. Kansas City Chiefs
Starter: Patrick Mahomes | Signed through: 2021
Tier: On the verge of commitment | Ranking in tier: No. 1
Contract: Four-year, $16.426 million fully guaranteed contract signed in July 2017. Earlier this month, the team exercised a $24.837 million option for 2021.
Per the fifth-year option rules for all draft classes 2017 and earlier, Mahomes’ fifth-year option is only guaranteed against injury at the moment. It becomes fully guaranteed on the first day of the 2021 league year. So that this point, the Chiefs aren’t technically contractually married to Mahomes beyond 2020.
Of course, there is no danger of the Chiefs backing out of it, and the far more likely outcome is a record-breaking contract extension for the 24-year-old superstar who was MVP of the league in 2018 and the Super Bowl this past season.
22. Houston Texans
Starter: Deshaun Watson | Signed through: 2021
Tier: On the verge of commitment | Ranking in tier: No. 2
Contract: Four-year, $13.854 million fully guaranteed contract signed in May 2017. Earlier this month, the team exercised a $17.54 million option for 2021.
The reason Watson’s fifth-year option is so much lower than Mahomes’ (and Mitchell Trubisky’s would have been) is because those guys were picked in the top 10 and he was not. The new CBA changes that rule, but sadly for Watson the change applies only to the 2018 draft and later.
As is the case with the Chiefs and Mahomes, the option is guaranteed only against injury right now and becomes fully guaranteed on the first day of the 2021 league year. As is the case with the Chiefs and Mahomes, the odds greatly favor a long-term agreement between Watson and the Texans that makes the question of the option moot.
23. Dallas Cowboys
Starter: Dak Prescott | Signed through: 2020
Tier: On the verge of commitment | Ranking in tier: No. 3
Contract: One-year, fully guaranteed franchise player tender of $31.409 million.
The fact that you know how to find this site on your computer or mobile device means you’ve likely heard some discussion about Prescott’s contract situation over the past year. Prescott and the Cowboys have until July 15 to work out the long-term deal they both want, or else franchise-player rules prohibit them from signing a long-term deal until after Dallas’ season ends.
It’s also worth noting that Prescott hasn’t signed his franchise tender yet, and until he does the Cowboys could get out of this deal merely by rescinding that tag and making him a free agent. The chances of that happening are close to zero, but this is a contract-analysis exercise, so that’s the reason he’s third in this tier even though he could sign his tender at any minute and lock the Cowboys into a far greater financial commitment than the Chiefs would owe Mahomes or the Texans would owe Watson.
The odds are good that Prescott gets his long-term deal before that deadline. But until he does, he’s tied to the Cowboys for only one more year. It would cost them $37.69 million to franchise him again in 2021 and then $54.27 million to franchise him again in 2022. Realistically, if they can’t get the long-term deal done this offseason or next, Dak would hit the free-agent market in the spring of 2022. It should go without saying that anyone in this tier will vault way up this list once he signs his expected long-term deal.
24. Baltimore Ravens
Starter: Lamar Jackson | Signed through: 2021
Tier: Youngster on rookie deal | Ranking in tier: No. 7
Contract: Four-year, $9.472 million contract signed in June 2018. It included $8.055 million in full guarantees at signing and a team option for a fifth year in 2022.
Jackson is the reigning league MVP, so he’s not going anywhere. But again, this is a contract evaluation exercise, and because Jackson was drafted so late in the first round in 2018, his deal is not fully guaranteed like the other Round 1 QBs in the 2018 class (Mayfield, Darnold, Allen and Rosen).
The Ravens owe Jackson a total of $3.113 million over the next two years, and only $1.696 million of that is guaranteed. He’s the best bargain in the NFL right now — at least until they have to pick up that 2022 option.
25. Indianapolis Colts
Starter: Philip Rivers | Signed through: 2020
Tier: Prove-it time | Ranking in tier: No. 1
Contract: One-year, $25 million contract signed in March 2020, fully guaranteed at signing.
Contracts don’t get much simpler than this one. The Colts signed Rivers to help them win this upcoming Super Bowl. There is no commitment beyond that for him or them.
Indianapolis also has Jacoby Brissett under contract for this year at $13 million, but he’s a free agent next offseason too. The Colts aren’t married to anyone. The only quarterback currently on their books for 2021 is rookie fourth-round pick Jacob Eason.
26. San Francisco 49ers
Starter: Jimmy Garoppolo | Signed through: 2022
Tier: Prove-it time | Ranking in tier: No. 2
Contract: Five-year, $137.5 million contract signed in February 2018, including $48.7 million fully guaranteed at signing.
It sounds crazy to call it “prove-it time” for a quarterback who’s 21-6 as an NFL starter and just played in the Super Bowl. But the fact is the way the 49ers structure their contracts, everyone is always in prove-it time.
Garoppolo has a $23.8 million salary in 2020, but just $15.7 million of that is guaranteed, and the Niners owe him no more guaranteed money after 2020. The dead-money cap hit for cutting Garoppolo next offseason would be just $2.8 million.
There’s no reason to think they don’t like Garoppolo or that he won’t play out his entire contract there. But San Francisco’s policy on flexibility doesn’t exempt its quarterback, and the organization will always have the financial freedom to make a change at the position if it feels it needs to.
27. Detroit Lions
Starter: Matthew Stafford | Signed through: 2022
Tier: Prove-it time | Ranking in tier: No. 3
Contract: Five-year, $135 million extension signed in August 2017, including $60.5 million fully guaranteed at signing.
The Lions are paying Stafford $15 million this year and nothing is guaranteed after that. In fact, as of the restructure Stafford did in December, $7.2 million of that $15 million is now an option bonus tied to a 2023 option on his contract, and the Lions have until the day before their first game of the 2020 regular season to decide whether to exercise it. If they don’t exercise it, that $7.2 million gets added to his 2020 salary, so he gets the $15 million either way. And the 2023 year voids no matter what, so this is just a salary-cap manipulation move.
What’s odd about it is the date on the option bonus. Since the Lions don’t have to decide on it until the day before their season starts, they could trade Stafford before then, and the acquiring team would be the one paying the option bonus and the salary.
Let me be clear: I do not believe the Lions are planning to trade Stafford. They’ve said they aren’t, publicly and privately, and I believe he will be their quarterback in 2020. But this is simply an exercise in ranking contract flexibility. And the fact the Lions have three more months to pay that bonus moves Stafford down just a bit behind others in his tier. Even if he does play the entire 2020 season for them, the Lions can get out of his deal next offseason with a $19 million dead-money charge and no more guaranteed salary owed.
28. Las Vegas Raiders
Starter: Derek Carr | Signed through: 2022
Tier: Prove-it time | Ranking in tier: No. 4
Contract: Five-year, $125.05 million extension signed in June 2017, including $40 million fully guaranteed at signing.
Carr has $18.9 million in salary coming to him this year, but only $2.9 million of that is guaranteed. The Raiders could, in theory, cut him before the season starts and only owe that $2.9 million. They could trade him before the season starts, owe him nothing and carry just $2.5 million in dead money on their cap for him.
They have publicly professed their faith and belief in Carr, so there’s no reason to think they plan to move on this offseason, even with high-profile backup Marcus Mariota scheduled to earn a guaranteed $7.5 million this year. But the Raiders owe Carr nothing in guaranteed money beyond this year, and the fact that his backup is guaranteed more salary this year than he is means something when we’re analyzing contract details. Carr’s dead-money cap charge if they cut him next spring is $2.5 million. This team is not married to him.
29. Chicago Bears
Starter: Mitchell Trubisky | Signed through: 2020
Tier: Prove-it time | Ranking in tier: No. 5
Contract: Four-year, $29.032 million, fully guaranteed contract signed in July 2017. It included a team option for a fifth year in 2021, which the team has declined.
We actually don’t know whether Trubisky or newly acquired Nick Foles will be the Bears’ starter in 2020, but the coaching staff has said it’d be Trubisky lining up with the starters if they were practicing right now, so let’s start with him.
The Bears will pay the No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 draft about $4.4 million in 2020 but owe him nothing beyond that. The team declining the fifth-year option means Trubisky is scheduled to be a free agent next spring. He has to play for his next contract.
As for Foles, Chicago is financially married to him for longer. He has guaranteed salaries of $4 million this year and next, a guaranteed roster bonus of $4 million next year, and $1 million of his 2022 salary is guaranteed. So the Bears will pay Foles $17 million over the next three years no matter what happens, and more if he turns out to be their starter.
Cutting Foles next spring wouldn’t crush them from a cap standpoint ($10.3 million dead money), but they’d still have to pay him. His contract is far more tradable now than it was when the Bears acquired him from Jacksonville.
30. Denver Broncos
Starter: Drew Lock | Signed through: 2022
Tier: Youngster on rookie deal | Ranking in tier: No. 8
Contract: Four-year, $7,010,820 contract signed in July 2019. It included $4.427 million guaranteed.
Because Lock was not a first-round pick, the Broncos do not hold a fifth-year option on him for 2023. He also has no guaranteed salary after the $813,674 he’s scheduled to earn in 2020. So the team really isn’t committed to him beyond this year.
If he plays well, he probably sticks a while, in part because he’s so cheap. Denver is scheduled to pay him $1.057 million in 2021 and $1.351 million in 2022, though that last number will go up via a proven performance escalator if he plays at least 35% of the team’s offensive snaps in each of the next two years (or if he ends up playing 35% of the team’s total offensive snaps in his first three years).
Lock has a lot more to prove before the Broncos have to commit anything to him beyond what they’ve already committed, which isn’t a ton.
31. New England Patriots
Starter: Jarrett Stidham | Signed through: 2022
Tier: Youngster on rookie deal | Ranking in tier: No. 9
Contract: Four-year, $3.156 million contract signed in May 2019. Included $636,112 fully guaranteed at signing.
A fourth-round pick in 2019, Stidham’s entire guarantee was a $636,112 signing bonus. The Patriots are scheduled to pay him about $2.5 million total over the next three years, none of it guaranteed. Since he was not a first-round pick, there’s no fifth-year option for 2023. Basically, if Stidham doesn’t work out, he’ll cost the Patriots close to nothing.
32. Jacksonville Jaguars
Starter: Gardner Minshew | Signed through: 2022
Tier: Youngster on rookie deal | Ranking in tier: No. 10
Contract: Four-year, $2.712 million contract signed in May 2019. Included $191,616 fully guaranteed at signing.
Minshew was a sixth-round pick, so none of his contract is guaranteed. The entire guarantee was in his signing bonus. His salaries the next three years are all under $1 million, though his 2022 salary will go up via proven performance escalator if he plays in at least 35% of the team’s offensive snaps in any two of his first three years or at least 35% of the team’s total offensive snaps over his first three years.
If Minshew flops, it won’t cost the Jags much at all. Which is good, considering they just paid Nick Foles $25 million to play four games for them.