Mayor of London Sadiq Khan has reiterated his ambition to bring the Super Bowl, WrestleMania, and potential boxing events like Anthony Joshua against Daniel Dubois to London as he strives to make the UK capital the global destination for sport.

Before his re-election as London mayor earlier this month, Khan pledged he would work to bring the National Football League’s (NFL) pivotal game, the Super Bowl, to London.

Speaking on Thursday, the 53-year-old expressed his desire to solidify London’s status as the “sporting capital of the world,” highlighting how the Champions League final at Wembley Stadium between Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund this Saturday marks the beginning of a summer filled with premier events, including Diamond League athletics, Olympic warm-up competitions, the Wimbledon tennis championships, and high-profile baseball and cricket matches.

“But I want more international events,” Khan said.

“I want (Anthony) Joshua and (Daniel) Dubois to take place in London. I want international WrestleMania taking place in London. The Super Bowl is really important for us. We have a number of American football games and I want it to come here because we want American sports fans in Europe to come to London to watch them, not just go to America.”

WrestleMania is celebrating its 40th year but has never been held in the UK. The event features stars like Cody Rhodes, Damian Priest, and Becky Lynch.

London has hosted NFL regular season games every year since 2007, but the Super Bowl has never been staged outside the United States. All 54 editions of the game have been held on American soil since its inception in 1967.

Mike Florio doesn’t see a SB starting at 11:30 local time:

The biggest problem with playing the Super Bowl in London comes from the time difference. The game starts at or around 6:30 p.m. ET. That’s 11:30 p.m. ET in London. And it last four hours. It would be odd, to say the least, to have Wembley Stadium emptying out at 3:30 a.m. local time.

Plenty of American fans also would regard a London Super Bowl as a bridge too far in the effort to globalize the game. Even though only a small fraction of domestic fans ever go to a Super Bowl, it’s the quintessential American event. It’s not the Olympics or the World Cup — especially with all team headquartered in the USA.

There’s nothing wrong with aspiring to host the game. And maybe it’ll happen. It won’t be easy. And the question is whether the gains would justify the headaches.

Can it start at 8:30/3:30 though?

CHICAGO

The “Hard Knocks” preseason microscope will be focused on the Bears.  Courtney Cronin of ESPN.com:

The Bears will continue to live in the spotlight this offseason and be featured on HBO’s “Hard Knocks” throughout training camp, the team announced Thursday.

The Bears have never been featured on “Hard Knocks,” which has followed NFL teams during training camp since 2001. Chairman George McCaskey has long been opposed to allowing HBO access to the Bears as they prepare for the season opener and said that his stance on appearing on the program had not changed during league meetings in March.

“We’re told there is some interest in other teams being on the program and we welcome that interest,” McCaskey said.

Still, the appeal of quarterback Caleb Williams, the No. 1 pick in the draft, and a team on the rise after a 7-10 finish in 2023 made the Bears an easy choice for HBO and NFL Films.

The Bears are the first team to be selected for “Hard Knocks” with a rookie quarterback selected No. 1 overall since the Cleveland Browns were featured in 2018 with Baker Mayfield.

“We are honored to feature such an iconic NFL franchise on ‘Hard Knocks,'” NFL Films senior director and supervising producer Shannon Furman said. “The Chicago Bears have a talented roster, coaching staff and front office all determined to match the expectations of a hungry fan base. We are thankful to the entire organization for opening their doors to us for what is sure to be an exciting training camp this summer.”

The Bears will be the first team to report to training camp in late July ahead of playing the Houston Texans in the Hall of Fame game in Canton, Ohio on Aug. 1. The first episode of “Hard Knocks” will air at 9 p.m. ET on Aug. 6.

“The 2024 training camp will be big for us in preparation for achieving our season goals, and we look forward to bringing the fans at home along for the journey,” Chicago general manager Ryan Poles said.

More on the process from Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

The three teams that could be forced by the NFL to do Hard Knocks were the Bears, Broncos and Saints, because those three teams don’t have first-year head coaches, haven’t been to the playoffs in the last two years, and haven’t been on Hard Knocks in the last 10 years.

Ultimately the NFL went with the Bears, surely in large part because of the presence of quarterback Caleb Williams, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft. The Bears and the NFL hope Williams is a star for years to come, and this can be an early opportunity for fans to get to know him.

This year there will also be an offseason Hard Knocks that focuses on the Giants and airs in July. An in-season Hard Knocks will focus on all four teams from one division.

DETROIT

OC Ben Johnson opens up on the lure of the Lions.  Justin Roger of the Detroit News:

Ben Johnson was already leaning toward staying with the Detroit Lions when he boarded the team’s return flight from San Francisco following a heartbreaking loss to the 49ers in the NFC Championship, but reflecting on a speech from coach Dan Campbell late in the 2021 season only reaffirmed Johnson’s thinking.

That had been a brutal year for the Lions, the first of yet another rebuild. The team couldn’t find a win through 11 games prior to knocking off the Minnesota Vikings on the final play in early December. The team finished 3-13-1. The division title and pair of playoff victories that would come two years later seemed much further away.

But Campbell saw promise in the process and wanted to make sure the team knew it. He used an analogy of sailing through the ocean. At that moment in time, he said they were in the Arctic, battling darkness, storms and icebergs, but calmer waters and warmer weather were on the way.

“He had the foresight, he had the vision, of where we were going and where we were heading,” Johnson recalled. “He said, ‘Guys, I see it. I see where we are going. The results haven’t been there yet, but the Caribbean is on the horizon. It’s coming up.'”

Despite the bitterness of falling one step short of the Super Bowl, the Lions enjoyed those Caribbean waters for the first time in a long time last season. It was uncharted territory for Johnson, who felt as if most of his 13-year NFL coaching career had been spent navigating the Arctic. He’d only been to the playoffs once before last season and had yet to experience a postseason victory.

So despite being the hottest head coaching candidate this past cycle, Johnson did the unconventional thing and pulled his name from consideration for the remaining jobs, opting to stay Detroit’s offensive coordinator.

“I think when it boils down to it, I wanted the sunshine a little bit longer,” Johnson said. “That’s really what it comes down to for me. I like the sunshine, I like what we’ve built here, starting with ownership, the head coach, the GM, on down. We have a great group of guys in the locker room, and I want to reap the rewards with them a little bit longer.”

Johnson wasn’t ready to give up a good thing, even for a top job in his profession. He understands there’s a harsh reality that comes with making the leap from assistant to head coach. Most don’t end up seeing a second contract and he estimated more than half of the eight hires from the last cycle will be out of the job in three years. That’s something history supports.

Johnson has no doubts he’s ready to make the jump, but as one of the league’s brightest offensive minds, he’s not a beggar, he’s a chooser. He’s confident his decision to return to Detroit won’t hinder future opportunities and he’s not going to take one until it’s the right fit.

“The stars need to align,” Johnson said. “I’m not going to do it just to do it.”

That means he has to be comfortable with ownership and the front office of any franchise he might join. He also acknowledged his desire to remain a playcaller if he ever makes the jump.

The biggest downside that’s come from staying in Detroit has been Johnson’s portrayal nationally. Anonymous sources eagerly picked him apart after his decision, which read like the franchises he spurned doing damage control. For the past several months, he’s opted not to publicly respond to what he called “false narratives” and declined a chance to set the record straight ahead of Thursday’s OTA practices. What he did acknowledge was the most difficult part was his family having to read the commentary.

“That comes with the territory,” Johnson said. “I’m good with that. That’s part of life in the NFL, so doesn’t affect me. I do feel for the people around me. I hate that my family would ever read stuff that’s not necessarily the case, but they handled it really, really well. So, support staff’s there, from that regard. I think I sleep well at night knowing what happened, how it happened, why it happened. I’m good there and the people that are closest to me, they know who I am and what I’m about.”

Moving on, Johnson is ready to keep soaking up the rays in Detroit. And if the perfect opportunity reveals itself in the future, he’s confident he’ll be ready to meet the moment.

“I was actually talking with someone the other day about this. The longer you’re in the coordinator chair, it does nothing but help you and prepare you more for the next step if it ever comes down the pike,” Johnson said. “So personally, I don’t feel like I’m hurting my opportunities or my abilities to be a head coach in the future and I love what I’m doing right now.”

DALLAS

The Cowboys are talking up QB TREY LANCE.  Michael David Smith ofProFootballTalk.com:

The 49ers made Trey Lance the third overall pick in the draft after he had started just 17 games at North Dakota State. Then they traded him to the Cowboys after he had started just four games in San Francisco. Lance never played a down in his first year with the Cowboys, so there still isn’t much to evaluate him on. But coach Mike McCarthy likes what he sees this offseason.

McCarthy said Lance is “definitely” an improved quarterback compared to where he was when he arrived in Dallas last year, and that his work in learning the Cowboys’ offense has been outstanding.

“Young quarterback comes into a new system, so you got the learning curve, but now starting to get the timing with the routes,” McCarthy said. “He’s close to being a master of the system. He has a really high understanding. He’s communicating very well. He looks more and more comfortable. He just needs reps. I know I say that every time I talk about him. He just needs as many reps as he can.”

Lance probably isn’t going to do much in Dallas, given that he’s behind not only Dak Prescott but also Cooper Rush on the depth chart. But all he can do now is put in the work in the offseason, and McCarthy says that’s what he’s doing. Perhaps some day, Lance will actually get some significant playing time.

PHILADELPHIA

DT JORDAN DAVIS feels he is “lean” at just 350 pounds.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Eagles defensive tackle Jordan Davis says he’s in his best shape heading into the third year of his career.

Asked what kind of shape he’s in now compared to the past, Davis used the words “definitely improving” three times before describing himself as a “more lean” 350 pounds.

“One thing I’ve been focused on is just getting better. I said the same thing last year from my rookie year, I want to get better every year,” Davis said. “I’m stepping into a much larger role than I was last year, and I know what’s expected of me. In terms of being in my best shape, I’m getting in the best condition of my life.”

Davis said he has improved his diet and trying to be more active even on his days off, even if that just means taking walks or hikes. Davis acknowledged that 350 pounds is a lot of weight to carry around, but he says he’s wearing his weight better than he has in the past.

“It looks a lot better than last year,” Davis said.

Davis started all 17 games last year, but he only played 45 percent of the Eagles’ defensive snaps as they took him off the field a lot. He said new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio wants him on the field more, and he thinks he’s in the shape for it.

DENVER

On paper, the Broncos have the least accomplished QB room in the league.  But Coach Sean Payton is nothing but positive on how they are performing in OTAs, particularly rookie QB BO NIX.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

Technically, the Broncos are letting three quarterbacks — Bo Nix, Jarrett Stidham, Zach Wilson — compete for the Week 1 starting job. As a practical matter, they’re hoping that the twelfth overall pick in the 2024 draft will win the job.

And so, whenever Broncos coach Sean Payton speaks to reporters, he’ll be asked about Nix’s development. Payton got that question, based on Nix completing six OTA sessions.

“It’s hard for me to catch you up like on a Netflix series,” Payton said. “You guys watched one [episode], and then you missed three, and then you watched one and I’m trying to catch you up. All three of [the quarterbacks] are doing well. Specifically to Bo, he’s doing really well. He’s picking it up. There’s a lot that’s going in. He’s throwing the ball extremely well.”

Picking it up is very good for Nix. Throwing the ball extremely well is even better. He’s making progress, confirming to the Broncos that they got it right — and making them comfortable that he’ll deliver if/when he plays.

To be truly ready to deliver, Nix has to be ready and able to thread the needle into smaller windows. Payton was asked about the adjustment to tighter windows in the NFL.

“I think that you immediately begin to feel the speed difference and the reaction difference and the length,” Payton said. “What was open in college, those windows were bigger. Generally speaking, then you begin to adapt to the timing. One of the things that all of these [do is] get the ball out quick. Holding onto the ball and waiting can sometimes be obviously detrimental. I think it’s the studying and the understanding of the defensive scheme, and then understanding where the windows are in regard to the spacing. I do think that begins the first time you’re out here and everyone is moving around full speed. It’s like, ‘Wow!’ The speed of your simulator just went up a little bit.”

And that’s during offseason workouts that aren’t happening at full speed — or aren’t supposed to be that way. It’ll ramp up during training camp and then, when the Broncos start the season for the second time in three years with a trip to Seattle, with both a different head coach and a different starting quarterback than they took to Seattle in Week 1 of the 2022 season.

KANSAS CITY

With the new rule, will kickers like PK HARRISON BUTKER still kick off?  Nate Taylor of The Athletic:

The most compelling and captivating portion of Thursday’s on-field work was the nearly 15 minutes the Chiefs spent working on the kickoff, the part of the game expected to be drastically different this upcoming season after 29 of the NFL’s 32 owners in late March voted in favor of modifying the play.

With no music blaring through a large speaker, which usually happens when 22 players are on the field for team-period repetitions, every member of the team who wasn’t on the field watched intently as Reid and Toub went through different strategic tactics for the kickoff.

At one point, Toub asked Harrison Butker, one of the league’s best kickers, to step away from his usual spot for a kickoff. Then, Reid and Toub watched safety Justin Reid, a seven-year veteran, kick the ball toward one of two returners, his result not that different from Butker’s.

“He’s an extra guy that (the opposing returning team) is probably not accounting for,” Toub said of Justin Reid, speaking for the first time since the kickoff rules were changed. “A guy like Justin is a guy that they have to worry about. You have to get him blocked, and they have to give up somebody else.

“I’d like to have somebody that can go back and is able to make a tackle. Butker is able to make a tackle, but I really don’t want him making tackles all year long.”

The league’s new format resembles how the rebooted XFL handled kickoffs.

While the ball is kicked from the kicking team’s 35-yard line, the rest of the coverage unit lines up on the opponent’s 40-yard line. The returning team will have at least nine players aligned on its own 35. The other two players will line up downfield as returners. The kickoff team defenders wouldn’t be permitted to move until one of the returners touches the ball or the ball lands on the turf inside the “landing zone” — between the receiving team’s 20-yard line and goal line. Fair catches aren’t allowed.

Toub and assistant special teams coach Andy Hill spent the past two months reviewing every XFL kickoff last season to study certain tendencies and best practices.

“I’d bet kickers were involved in probably 25 (to) 40 percent of the tackles, either trying to make a guy bounce back or making the tackle — or just missing the tackle,” Toub said. “We don’t want Butker in that situation. He’ll be a guy we’ll use in certain situations. He has a lot of ability to move the ball.”

Entering his 24th season, Toub is one of the NFL’s best and most experienced special teams coordinators. When Butker sustained a high-ankle sprain on his left ankle in the opening game of the 2022 season, Toub turned to Justin Reid, who made an extra point attempt in the Chiefs’ victory over the Arizona Cardinals. Justin Reid has always enjoyed being the team’s emergency kicker. Even during training camp the past two years, he has worked on his kicking techniques if needed for a field goal, extra point or kickoff. He is also one of the Chiefs’ best defenders and tacklers against ball carriers in the open field.

Last season, Butker executed 85 kickoffs, 74 of which resulted in a touchback. Many league officials and coaches believe the new kickoff rules will return the play’s relevance.

“It’s huge for me, and it’s made me excited,” Toub said. “Those two phases (in the old rules) were gone, really. I didn’t work on kickoff because I knew Butker is just going to kick a touchback. All my time was spent on punt and punt return, field goal and field goal block. This is huge because it’s going to create jobs for returners, kickers and cover guys.

“Last year, we had 1,970 touchbacks in a 17-game season. Now, we (special teams coordinators) think there’s going to be 1,600 more actual football plays. It’s going to be exciting for the fans. The players are excited about it, too.”

One of those players, of course, is Justin Reid. The kickoff rules, Toub said, will require the accuracy of his kicks to be precise to give the Chiefs’ coverage team a clear advantage in tackling the opposing team’s returner before he reaches the 25-yard line.

Under the new rules, if the ball lands short of the landing zone, the ball would be moved to the receiving team’s 40-yard line, just as if a kickoff sails out of bounds. On a kick that hits in the landing zone, rolls into the end zone and is not returned, the ball would be moved to the receiving team’s 20-yard line. Touchbacks or kicks where the ball reaches the end zone and isn’t returned would call for the ball to be moved to the receiving team’s 30.

“That 5 yards makes a big difference,” Toub said of an opponent starting its drive on its 30-yard line. “It’s another 3 percent (increase) that you’re giving the (opposing) offense a chance to score.”

The ideal kick for a kicker could be one where the ball drops a few yards in front of the goal line and near the numbers.

In Thursday’s practice, Toub presented Justin Reid with such a challenge: Kick the ball in a direction away from the returners in which the ball still reaches the landing zone but doesn’t bounce out of bounds. He was successful in most of his attempts.

“Oh boy, this season is about to be so fun,” Justin Reid wrote on his X account, including a purple mischievous devil emoji.

Toub still doesn’t know who his two top returners will be for kickoffs. But he acknowledged that the responsibilities of the returner have been altered because of the new kickoff rules.

“The guy who doesn’t return the ball has to be a good blocker,” Toub said. “They’re going to have to bounce back from a lot of tackles because it’s going to be a lot of tackles, but they’ve got to be a really good blocker. There’s going to be guys coming free. There’s too many guys down the field at the point of attack.”

One of the leading candidates to be one of the returners appears to be running back Louis Rees-Zammit, the former rugby star who joined the Chiefs after entering the NFL’s International Player Pathway program, an initiative launched in 2017 to recruit athletes from around the world and increase the number of international players in the league. Nicknamed “Rees-Lightning,” Rees-Zammit ran the 40-yard dash in 4.43 seconds at his pro day in March in front of scouts from 31 NFL teams.

Whenever Rees-Zammit catches a kickoff, whether in training camp or a preseason game, his returns could be the moments when he best blends the ball-carrying skills he perfected in rugby with the vision, acceleration and elusiveness he dreams of demonstrating in the open field in the NFL.

“He’s done above and beyond what I’ve expected,” Toub said. “He can kick field goals, he can kick off and he can be a kickoff guy for us. He’s every bit as good as Justin is at moving the ball on kickoffs. He’s really working hard at a returning job. He wants to be great, and he’s a great athlete. He’s just got such a long way to go, mentally-wise. But he’s on the accelerator program, and he’s doing well.”

Toub believes the Chiefs most often will ask Butker to handle the kickoff when they have a commanding lead and are more comfortable with a touchback than the possibility of the opposing returner producing a highlight. However, with each practice during the Chiefs’ OTAs, Toub said he has learned something new when the Chiefs work on the kickoff. He plans to have his unit work on either kickoffs or kickoff returns in every practice during the Chiefs’ monthlong training camp.

Toub also knows that the Chiefs, the league’s reigning champion, will be featured in the first game of the 2024 season, when they host the Baltimore Ravens.

“The team that figures it out is going to really excel early,” he said. “We want to be that team.”

The Chiefs, like all teams, are trying to figure out how to handle the new kickoff rules. Unlike most teams, the Chiefs have a non-kicker who can kick.

Chiefs special-teams coordinator Dave Toub told reporters on Thursday that the Chiefs might use safety Justin Reid as the kickoff specialist, given the likelihood that the kicker will be involved in making a tackle.

Toub said that, in the XFL, kickers made the tackle 25 to 40 percent of the time. He doesn’t want that for Harrison Butker.

“Butker’s able to make a tackle, but I really don’t want him making tackles all year long,” Toub said.

In contrast, Reid will be someone that the return team will have to “worry about.”

Toub said they’re working on kickoff and kickoff return every day. On the kicking side, the goal is to get the ball on the ground in the landing zone before it’s touched, because the players can begin to pursue the ball.

Butker will still be used at times, especially if/when the Chiefs decide to deliberately kick the ball out of the end zone, conceding the 30-yard line to start the drive. That could happen if/when (as Toub said) a team hopes to “get out of a game” with the lead and not risk giving up a touchdown on a return.

Toub added that former rugby player Louis Rees-Zammit also could be used as the kickoff specialist, and that he could be used as the return specialist in the new kickoff.

Toub’s words underscore the significance of the kickoff and kickoff return. He said that he believes there will be 1,600 more football players this year because of it.

“The team that figures it out, kickoff-wise and kickoff return-wise, is gonna really excel early,” Toub said. “We wanna be that team.”

To that end, the Chiefs are using trial and error to get there, with the reality that — for now — they can’t actually tackle.

However it goes, a play here or a play there on kickoff returns could make the difference between a win and a loss. And that can be the difference, when the dust settles on Week 18, between a playoff berth and staying home.

PITTSBURGH

The quarterback position might not be an either/or proposition for Pittsburgh with the combination of QBs RUSSELL WILSON and JUSTIN FIELDS and OC Arthur Smith.  Tim Benz of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review:

On Tuesday, Justin Fields seemed open to the idea of playing a Taysom Hill or Kordell Stewart type of role in the offense if the Steelers asked him to do so. On Wednesday, I asked Russell Wilson if he thought that would be a good idea as well.

“Justin is obviously one of the most talented guys in the NFL,” Wilson said. “You know all the things he can do. The player, the quarterback that he is. He’s dynamic. It’s all about us winning. That’s the focus. I think it would strike fear in some defenses, that’s for sure.”

Wilson said that using Fields in such a way wouldn’t be too much of a distraction or a gimmick in his estimation.

“Justin is a franchise quarterback. He’s a guy that can do a lot of amazing things. So, we have two dynamic guys that can do a lot of special things,” Wilson continued.

As Fields said Tuesday, though, no such plays have been drawn up in the Steelers offense as of yet.

MIAMI

An extension for WR JAYLEN WADDLE.  Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.com:

The Dolphins agreed to a contract extension Thursday with Jaylen Waddle that makes him one of the highest-paid wide receivers in the NFL.

The three-year, $84.75 million extension includes $76 million guaranteed, sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter. The $28.25 million average annual value of the extension is the fourth highest in the NFL among wide receivers, while the guaranteed money is the third behind A.J. Brown ($84 million) and Amon-Ra St. Brown ($77 million).

Waddle is now signed through the 2028 season.

Despite playing alongside Tyreek Hill for the past two seasons, Waddle’s 3,385 receiving yards rank 13th in the NFL since 2021, and he has recorded the 16th-most receiving yards of any player in their first three seasons.

The No. 6 overall pick in 2021 set a rookie record with 104 receptions and followed that campaign with a career-best 1,356 yards in 2022 in his first season under coach Mike McDaniel. Waddle recorded his third straight 1,000-yard season in 2023 despite missing three games, becoming the first player in Dolphins history to record three consecutive seasons of at least 1,000 receiving yards.

Dolphins general manager Chris Grier said in April that the team felt good about where things were with Waddle’s extension. He laughed off the idea that Miami should consider trading Waddle and reaffirmed the team’s commitment to keeping him around long term.

“No, as I said in the middle of the season, I have no thoughts of trading Jaylen Waddle,” Grier said in February. “We want him here for a long time, and we think he’s a big part of our now and our future here. He’s a great person on and off the field, and we still think, as good as he is, he still has runway to keep getting better.”

Waddle is the second key player of the Dolphins’ rebuild over the past five years to sign a long-term extension with the team, joining 2020 first-round pick Austin Jackson. Miami will also seek extensions with Waddle’s draft classmates Jaelan Phillips and Jevon Holland as well as quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

The contract extension was negotiated by Waddle’s representation at WME Football.

THIS AND THAT

JUNE 1 CUTS

Cody Benjamin of CBSSports.com surveys some candidates for the post-June 1 signings and cuts:

By this point in the NFL offseason, most teams are finished making sweeping changes to their rosters. But another key catalyst for potential change is fast approaching, with June 1 marking the date when many player contracts can more easily be traded or terminated.

With that in mind, here’s a look at the biggest remaining needs for some of the NFL’s expected 2024 contenders, as well as some of the top candidates to be cut or auctioned post-June 1:

Top remaining needs for contenders

Bengals: Cornerback

Mike Hilton is reliable as a feisty slot starter, but Cincinnati’s two perimeter men are as follows: Cam Taylor-Britt, who’s 24 and never started more than 12 games in a season; and DJ Turner, who’s converting to corner after starting 12 games at safety as a rookie.

Bills: Front seven

You could still argue wide receiver here, with Josh Allen dependent on some combination of Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. But with Matt Milano coming off injury, Tyrel Dodson gone and Von Miller aging, a pass rusher or off-ball linebacker could help.

Chiefs: Cornerback

Trent McDuffie is a top-flight starter, but after dealing L’Jarius Sneed to the Tennessee Titans, the Chiefs are betting on a quick jump from third-year successor Jaylen Watson, who’s only started eight games up to this point. Young reserve Joshua Williams provides another option at the position.

Cowboys: The trenches

They addressed tackle by adding Tyler Guyton in the draft, but after losing Tyler Biadasz in free agency, questions remain about the fortitude of Dak Prescott’s front. On the other side, their front seven remains sorely dependent on Micah Parsons, with the interior D-line lacking a true difference-maker.

Dolphins: The trenches

Both Connor Williams and Robert Hunt left via free agency, and Miami’s offensive line was iffy to begin with, at least from a durability standpoint. Terron Armstead is all but a perennial lock to sit out several contests at left tackle, and on defense, Christian Wilkins’ exit left a sizable void that remains.

Eagles: Linebacker

They didn’t ignore the position after an ugly 2023 at the heart of the defense, taking several low-risk, high-reward flyers in veteran Devin White and rookie Jeremiah Trotter Jr. But there’s still a lot of pressure on Nakobe Dean to deliver, too. It’s the one spot on “D” that might still require another dart throw.

49ers: Safety

The interior of Brock Purdy’s line is something to monitor, but the back end of the secondary is an underrated concern. Talanoa Hufanga has been a ball hawk when healthy, but he missed just under half the 2023 season, and fellow starter Ji’Ayir Brown has just five regular-season starts under his belt.

Packers: Offensive line

It’s not that Green Bay doesn’t have upside in the trenches. The youth across the board is actually promising. But with Rasheed Walker at left tackle, Zach Tom on the right side and first-round pick Jordan Morgan’s spot uncertain for now, some clarity on roles and top depth options would be nice.

Jets: Offensive line

They’re all in on Aaron Rodgers for a second straight year, and they certainly haven’t ignored the O-line after it burned them in 2023: Tyron Smith is still sturdy when healthy, and rookie Olu Fashanu adds much-needed depth at tackle. But durability questions are still littered throughout basically every spot here.

Lions: Wide receiver

Detroit rightly paid Amon-Ra St. Brown big bucks to stay put for the long haul, but there’s quite a bit of projection baked into his supporting cast out wide, with Jameson Williams still vying for a complete season ahead of No. 3 Kalif Raymond. It’s a good thing Sam LaPorta is also elite at tight end.

Ravens: Offensive tackle

Lamar Jackson makes up for a lot with unmatched athleticism in and outside the pocket, but the Ravens aren’t exactly rolling into 2024 with sure things at bookend: left tackle Ronnie Stanley has never played a full season, and new right tackle Roger Rosengarten is a second-round rookie.

Texans: Cornerback

Houston upgraded on both sides of the ball in a spendy offseason, and the added physicality in the front seven should filter to the back end in some ways. But Jeff Okudah is a lottery ticket opposite Derek Stingley Jr. at corner, meaning DeMeco Ryans and Co. could probably use veteran insurance.

Top post-June 1 cut and trade candidates

Taylor Heinicke

ATL • QB • #4

The former Washington Commanders starter took a pay cut to remain as Kirk Cousins’ backup in Atlanta, but that was before the Falcons turned around and used a top-10 pick on Michael Penix Jr., crowding the quarterback room for the short and long term. Cutting him would save Atlanta $1.2 million.

Miles Sanders

CAR • RB • #6

A year after signing a top free-agent deal with Carolina, Sanders may well be fighting for backup carries alongside Jonathon Brooks and Chuba Hubbard, even with new coach Dave Canales angling for a stronger run game. Releasing Sanders would save the Panthers an instant $200,000.

Brandon Aiyuk

SF • WR • #11

There is no world in which Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch actually want to deal Aiyuk, but the NFL is a business, and if somehow the two sides remain extremely far apart in long-term contract talks, a trade could net San Francisco a premium return. Dealing him would save an immediate $14.1 million.

Darius Slayton

NYG • WR • #86

Skipping voluntary workouts in an apparent bid for a new contract, Slayton has quietly topped 700 receiving yards in four of five NFL seasons. But with first-round pick Malik Nabers onboard, he’s also expendable. Cutting or trading him would save the Giants anywhere from $3.8 million to $6.4 million.

Matt Judon

NE • OLB • #9

Judon reported to the Patriots’ mandatory minicamp, but his future in New England remains cloudy: While he’s been a prolific edge rusher, the four-time Pro Bowler is 32, coming off nearly a lost season and part of a Patriots defense under new coach Jerod Mayo. Releasing him would save $6.7 million.

James Bradberry

PHI • CB • #24

A year after landing a new deal for his steady performance on a title contender, Bradberry could be the odd man out in a restocked Eagles secondary featuring a pair of first- and second-round investments. Cutting him wouldn’t save the team anything in 2024, but it would clear his contract from the books.

ONE AND DONE?

Even with Dan Snyder no longer pulling the trigger, Charles McDonald of YahooSports.com thinks that Dan Quinn is the coach most likely to be one-and-done:

Now that the major points of the offseason have passed, attention has turned to what’s actually possible for the upcoming NFL season. The new crop of NFL head coaches will take the stage soon and there has been tumultuous history with first-year head coaches in recent years.

Seven coaches have been hit with the dreaded one-and-done tag since the 2018 season and the idea of coaches getting canned after one season is not as rare as it used to be. Carolina’s Frank Reich was the last, losing his gig after 11 games in 2023.

Here’s a look at the new head coaches and what might trip them up and have them wind up in the NFL’s saddest fraternity.

(It’s unlikely that any of these guys will be fired, so just humor this).

Dan Quinn, Washington Commanders

Look, Commanders fans might not like this thought but this is a volatile situation that Quinn is walking into. As stated in the introduction, it’s unlikely that any of these head coaches get fired during or immediately after Year 1, but there are some things working against Quinn, mainly that he wasn’t the first choice of the new ownership group that recently bought the Commanders. It was incredibly clear that the Commanders were all in on Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson before he decided to stay in Detroit. Quinn may end up being fine in the long run, but a rookie quarterback on a bad team with a shaky offensive coordinator (Kliff Kingsbury) isn’t the most stable footing to be on. There’s a lot of room to improve from the Commanders’ 4-13 record from a season ago so Quinn may not have to jump too high to impress people.

Raheem Morris, Atlanta Falcons

The scenario in which Morris gets fired is straightforward: Kirk Cousins has a season so bad the Falcons wind up in the top five of next year’s draft. It’s an unlikely one, but Morris has taken a job that has considerable expectations, even though the Falcons spent the eighth overall draft pick on Michael Penix Jr., a quarterback who isn’t expected to play this year. The Falcons have been a 7-10 team over the past three years and the addition of Cousins is expected to get them back into the playoffs for the first time since the 2017 season. That’s a lot of pressure for a new head coach with team owner Arthur Blank showing he’s running out of patience with the lack of success around the organization.

Jerod Mayo, New England Patriots

Mayo probably has one of the smallest risks of being a one-and-done. The only way that this would happen is if the Patriots put together a season on par with what the Panthers did last season. Mayo is going to have a long leash, especially if Drake Maye is the player many think he is.

Dave Canales, Carolina Panthers

Speaking of the Panthers! Given the recent turmoil and turnover involving their quarterback and head coach situations during the David Tepper era, nothing is off limits here. However, the Panthers have to choose stability at some point, right? Even if it’s just for the sake of it. They’re locked into Bryce Young for at least the 2024 season, so Canales should have security past this season, even if it is a disaster. Tepper can’t afford to hire another head coach in 2025. Well, he can, but, you know.

Brian Callahan, Tennessee Titans

Callahan being a one-and-done would be surprising given how the Titans have set themselves up to be competent this offseason. This isn’t a bad team and they’ve attempted to give Will Levis a chance to succeed with moves they’ve made this offseason. Callahan is in the same boat as Mayo where it would take an unforeseen catastrophe of a season for him to lose his job.

Antonio Pierce, Las Vegas Raiders

Pierce is in a bit of a different spot because he was the interim coach last season for a surge that ended up getting him the full-time job. He actually might be at risk here if the Raiders go on a slide (possible given their quarterback room) and take a few steps back from last year because he has familiarity with the program. He’s taking over in full for the first time, but he’s not new to the Raiders.

Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks would have waited an eternity for Macdonald. He’s impervious to getting fired this season.

Jim Harbaugh, Los Angeles Chargers

The only way Harbaugh loses his job this season is if he scares everyone with his steak and milk habits. He’s going to have an incredibly long leash to get this job done, which makes sense given his strong track record as a head coach.

Any coach with David Tepper as owner should be higher on such a list, even one we think as highly of as Dave Canales.

FPI PROJECTIONS

Seth Walder’s secret sauce FPI projections look at 2024 and see a similar season to 2023:

The San Francisco 49ers might have lost Super Bowl LVIII to the Kansas City Chiefs, but they enter 2024 as the best team in football and favorites to win Super Bowl LIX, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). The 49ers’ edge in quality over the Baltimore Ravens and Chiefs is narrow, but because San Francisco plays in the weaker NFC, its championship chances (16%) are notably higher than any other club’s.

The Football Power Index is our ratings and projection model for NFL teams. In the preseason, the model’s overall predictive ratings are based primarily on win totals from ESPN BET in conjunction with each team’s schedule — along with factors such as the strength difference between a team’s starting and backup quarterback and a revamped special teams rating based primarily on new predictive kicker ratings. We use these team ratings to simulate the season thousands of times, creating our projections.

During the season, ratings evolve based on how teams perform on offense, defense and special teams — along with quarterback performance and changes. In addition to updated ratings, game predictions are also affected by home-field advantage and rest differentials.

Let’s dive into the 2024 season.

49ers are the favorites

Although San Francisco fell short in overtime at the Super Bowl, there’s no mistaking its elite play throughout the 2023 season. Postseason included, the 49ers were clearly the best offense in terms of EPA per play at 0.15, solidly ahead of the Buffalo Bills (0.12) and the Dallas Cowboys (0.11). Pairing that with a top-10 defense made the 49ers the best team in football in the FPI’s mind, even if they didn’t win.

There’s little reason to believe that will change in 2024. We can debate the true division of credit among quarterback Brock Purdy, coach Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers’ plethora of talented skill position players, but it all adds up to a championship contender as long as running back Christian McCaffrey, wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, and tight end George Kittle remain healthy and productive. The defensive leaders — end Nick Bosa, tackle Javon Hargrave, linebacker Fred Warner and cornerback Charvarius Ward — also return.

That all makes the 49ers the FPI’s No. 1 team. And when coupled with the NFC still being weaker on average (by about 0.8 points per game in FPI rating) than the AFC, it leaves an open path for the 49ers to return to the Super Bowl. San Francisco has a 25% chance to reach the Super Bowl and a 16% chance to win it — both best in the league. The favorite having a 16% chance to win the Super Bowl is roughly on par with previous versions of the FPI, as it’s the fifth-highest percentage among preseason favorites over the past 10 years.

Best chance to win the Super Bowl

Twelve teams have at least a 3% chance to win the Super Bowl, per ESPN’s FPI.

RANK   TEAM   CHANCE

1          49ers                16%

2          Chiefs               12%

3          Lions                10%

4          Cowboys           9%

5          Ravens              8%

6          Eagles               8%

7          Bills                   6%

8          Bengals            5%

9          Packers            5%

10         Texans              4%

11         Dolphins            3%

12         Falcons              3%

Could we be headed for a Super Bowl rematch?

Any singular Super Bowl matchup is unlikely to occur. But this year, the most likely Super Bowl matchup is a rematch of last season. Another Chiefs-49ers contest has a 6% chance of occurring, per the FPI. That number is fueled by the strength of the 49ers’ projections, plus the Chiefs being the top team in the AFC.

Most Likely Super Bowl LIX Matchups

              MATCHUP       LIKELIHOOD

1          Chiefs vs. 49ers              6%

2          Ravens vs. 49ers           4%

3          Chiefs vs. Lions              4%

4          Chiefs vs. Eagles           4%

5          Chiefs vs. Cowboys       4%

6          Bills vs. 49ers                 3%

7          Ravens vs. Lions           3%

8          Bengals vs. 49ers          3%

9          Chiefs vs. Packers         2%

10         Ravens vs. Cowboys     2%

Although Baltimore is right behind Kansas City in overall FPI rating, its chances to reach the Super Bowl lag behind the Chiefs’ (24% to 17%) because the Ravens play in a much tougher division. The Ravens have only a 46% chance to win the AFC North (compared with a 74% chance for the Chiefs in the West), and their chance to land the No. 1 seed is 18% to the Chiefs’ 24%. That said, Ravens-49ers is the second-most likely Super Bowl matchup at 4%.

The four most likely AFC Championship Games all involved the Chiefs against other contenders — the Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Bills and Houston Texans — with the Miami Dolphins the only other team to crack a top-10 AFC Championship Game clash. The 49ers, Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles and Cowboys are in the majority of the most likely NFC Championship Game matchups, although the Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons worked their way into the top 10.

Most Likely Conference Title Game Matchups

                                       AFC                                          NFC

Chiefs vs. Ravens          9%       49ers vs. Lions  9%

Chiefs vs. Bengals         6%       49ers vs. Eagles            8%

Chiefs vs. Bills               6%       49ers vs. Cowboys        8%

Chiefs vs. Texans          5%       Lions vs. Eagles            6%

Ravens vs. Bills              5%       Lions vs. Cowboys         6%

Chiefs vs. Dolphins        4%       49ers vs. Packers          5%

Ravens vs. Texans        4%       49ers vs. Falcons          4%

Bengals vs. Bills            3%       Cowboys vs. Packers    3%

Ravens vs. Dolphins      3%       Eagles vs. Packers        3%

Ravens vs. Bengals       3%       Eagles vs. Cowboys       3%

Who’ll take the AFC East?

It’s still Buffalo’s division to lose. Although the Bills have major questions at wide receiver, the New York Jets have a healthy Aaron Rodgers and a strengthened roster, and the Dolphins remain a threat. The FPI still sees the incumbent Bills as the favorites, with a 44% chance to win the strong division. Miami is next at 31%, and the Jets are third at 25%.

That breakdown is interesting given the hype and cautious optimism around the Jets — and because New York has the easiest schedule of the three teams while Buffalo has the hardest. Fundamentally, the FPI believes the Bills will have a high-end offense even without receiver Stefon Diggs, with Josh Allen playing behind a solid offensive line.

The one team without a shot? The New England Patriots. It’s no surprise given the team’s current status. The FPI gives New England less than a 1% chance to win the division and only a 2% chance to reach the playoffs. The Patriots have the hardest strength of schedule in the NFL this year, but if you ask me those projections still feel a little overconfident forecasting New England’s failure. Who’s to say rookie quarterback and No. 3 pick Drake Maye can’t be good right away?

Can Kirk Cousins lead the Falcons to a division title?

According to the FPI, it’s more than likely. With Cousins walking into the woebegone NFC South, Atlanta is set up to take the division — despite the Falcons having burned the No. 8 pick on another quarterback. Even though the FPI isn’t overly fond of Atlanta — considering it the 15th-best team in the NFL — the Falcons are still clearly the top team in the division, with the Bucs (22nd), Saints (26th) and Panthers (32nd) lagging.

Atlanta is projected to win 9.6 games, the highest of any team outside FPI’s top 10, because it has the easiest schedule in the league by a healthy margin.

Patriots and Panthers most likely teams on the clock

New England’s league-topping strength of schedule combined with the FPI’s skepticism regarding its roster has the model believing the Patriots are the most likely team to pick first in the 2025 NFL draft, with a 22% chance. The Panthers rate lower than the Patriots in the FPI, but their chance at picking No. 1 is slightly worse (21%).

If Carolina ends up earning the No. 1 pick again (it would get to use it this time), it will likely be looking for Bryce Young’s successor — although it remains to be seen whether there’s a 2025 quarterback worthy of going first.

The Denver Broncos, Tennessee Titans and New York Giants round out the top 5 for chances of landing the top pick.

Projected 2025 NFL Draft Order

RANK   TEAM   CHANCE AT NO. 1       CHANCE AT TOP 5

1          Patriots              22%                                 66%

2          Panthers           21%                                  63%

3          Broncos            12%                                  51%

4          Titans                  7%                                37%

5          Commanders       6%                                  32%

6          Giants                  6%                                 32%

7          Vikings                5%                                 28%

8          Raiders                 3%                                25%

9          Cardinals              4%                                 23%

10         Saints                   3%                                19%

Will Chargers take a leap under Jim Harbaugh?

The FPI is not convinced! The model gives L.A. a slightly negative rating and ranks the Chargers 18th overall. Part of that is due to Los Angeles losing receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this offseason, plus a defense that ranked 29th in EPA per play last season. Still, Jim Harbaugh plus Justin Herbert equaling (just) below average was shocking to see.

There is upside, though. The Chargers have a 45% chance to reach the playoffs and a 19% shot at wresting the AFC West title from the Chiefs. But the odds that Harbaugh will turn this team around in a single season are low according to the model, with 3% and 1% chances to reach and win the Super Bowl, respectively.

Can Eagles, Jaguars overcome 2023 collapses?

The FPI is a believer in the Eagles. Despite the team falling apart and losing six of its final seven games last season — including a 32-9 blowout loss to Tampa Bay in the wild-card round — the model is backing Philadelphia as the fourth-best team in the NFC behind San Francisco, Detroit and Dallas and makes it a narrow favorite to win the NFC East (49%). The Eagles still have the foundation of a contender, with good or great players at critical positions such as quarterback, tackle, wide receiver and along the defensive line. They’ve also added new coordinators.

As for the Jacksonville Jaguars? The FPI is much more skeptical. Jacksonville ranks 16th and has just a 22% chance to win its division due to its lukewarm strength rating and the ascendance of the Texans (and perhaps the Indianapolis Colts) at a time when the Jaguars appear stagnant.