The Daily Briefing Friday, May 6, 2022

NFC NORTH

DETROIT

In general, Mike Sando’s anonymous execs like what Detroit did in the draft:

Would you trade the 34th pick for the right to move up 20 spots twice, including from 32 to 12 and 66 to 46? The Lions would, and did, landing the 12th and 46th picks from the division-rival Vikings. The move enabled Detroit to take Alabama receiver Jameson Williams and Kentucky defensive end Josh Paschal, after using the second overall pick for Michigan defensive end Aidan Hutchinson.

“I feel like this is the best I have seen Detroit draft in a long time,” an exec said. “I do not love all their picks. I did not love taking the Kentucky kid, who makes their defense slower, but more than in the past I felt like Detroit made moves that were football-intelligent.”

Hutchinson is seen as low risk.

“You look at their first five picks, and I think they are guys known for playing hard,” an evaluator said. “There is a theme to what they did. They got tough, gritty, solid guys. Williams got ejected from a game for a special-teams targeting hit on the punt coverage team.”

Teams moving up as far as the Lions moved up almost always have a specific player in mind. We can debate whether moving up for a non-quarterback makes sense in general, but most would agree Detroit was able to do so without paying an exorbitant premium and without allowing Minnesota to pull off some kind of obvious haul.

Williams is recovering from ACL surgery, but it’s not as though the Lions are gearing up for a championship run this season. More than a lot of teams, they have time to wait for Williams to make a full recovery.

“I’m a big Jameson Williams fan — that speed, wow,” an exec said. “We were talking about Atlanta getting Drake London. Jameson Williams looks exciting. The Atlanta guy does not excite you in the same way.”

NFC EAST

PHILADELPHIA

At ESPN.com, SEC coaches talk about the fall of LB NAKOBE DEAN to the 3^rd round:

Linebacker Nakobe Dean’s prolonged and painful wait — through the first round and well into the third, when the Philadelphia Eagles drafted him — became one of the top stories of the draft. Coaches who saw Dean become an All-American at Georgia and lead one of the most dominant defenses in recent memory shared in the surprise that he wasn’t selected earlier.

“He literally does not allow you to run the football in the SEC,” an SEC offensive coordinator said of Dean. “If you put Nakobe Dean on an edge, he would be more productive and better than [former Georgia player and first-round pick] Jermaine Johnson ever will be. That’s what’s so amazing to me about that league [the NFL]. They get so many resources and so much money, and you’re not going to take Nakobe Dean?”

Dean’s health situation and measurables — he measured 5-foot-11 and 229 pounds — likely contributed to the drop. An assistant who faced Georgia this year noted, “People don’t like short linebackers in the NFL,” but thought Dean would go early in the second round.

A Power 5 defensive coordinator attributed Dean’s situation to changes in the NFL and how teams are assessing linebackers.

“Teams want versatility,” he said. “They want length and speed, so if you’re Dean and you’re 5-11, they want to see that Tampa Bay linebacker [Devin White] speed. And he didn’t run a 40. With the wideouts now, it’s such a passing league and you’re paying DBs because you’ve got to stop the wideouts. Everything is about the pass. Your top-paid positions are quarterback, tackle, D-end and corner/wideout.”

WASHINGTON

Reviled former owner George Preston Marshall loved a good band.  And now, Washington’s football team is returning.  John Keim of ESPN.com has a paragraph adroitly answers the question about the team’s fight song, presumably now “Hail to the Commanders.”

The Washington Commanders reached back into their past to continue a tradition that became a hallmark at home games, restoring their marching band after a two-year absence, the team announced Thursday.

The marching band has been a franchise staple since the team moved to Washington in 1937 and became famous for playing its fight song after touchdowns. They became commonplace in the Washington area, routinely marching in area parades.

The band, however, had not had a presence over the past two seasons — first because the pandemic led to no fans in the stadium (save for one game) and then because the program was paused while the team rebranded its name and logo.

While fans worried if they would return, Commanders president Jason Wright had told ESPN last year that they always intended for the band to come back.

According to a release, the team also will revamp the lyrics to their former fight song. The previous fight song, which debuted in 1938, underwent several revisions over the years.

NFC WEST

ARIZONA

Mike Sando of The Athletic gets anonymous execs to dish on the draft – here they like what the Cardinals did with WR MARQUISE BROWN and the rest of their receiving corps:

An Arizona franchise that hit home runs in the draft with wideouts Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin two decades ago has used trades to acquire three of its current leading pass catchers: DeAndre Hopkins in 2020, Zach Ertz in 2021 and now Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, who turns 25 in June and is coming off his first 1,000-yard season.

Acquiring Brown and a third-round pick from Baltimore for the 23rd pick came with a perk for Arizona: Brown is scheduled to earn $2 million this season and $13 million next season before reaching free agency. That makes the practical cost about $7.5 million per year for the Cardinals, which over a full contract would barely crack the top 35 for NFL wide receivers.

“That is why I liked the Hollywood Brown trade for Arizona,” an exec said. “The A.J. Brown trade cost a first and a third and Philly had to give him a big contract. Arizona gets a third back and, worst-case scenario, they keep him for two years, he leaves and they get a comp pick back — basically trading a late first for two thirds, which is not a wash but is close.”

Bigger picture, Arizona acquired Brown, Hopkins and Ertz, plus third- and fourth-round picks, for picks in the first, second, fourth and fifth rounds, plus David Johnson and Tay Gowan.

“It shows you how much sway Kliff (Kingsbury) has,” another exec said. “They have three original first-round receivers plus Rondale Moore in the second, Andy Isabella in the second, they just used a second for Trey McBride, the No. 1 receiving tight end in this draft, and Ertz was originally second round as well. How much of a guru do you have to be to make your offense work with that many guys?”

Brown will cost less than Arizona would have paid to retain receiver Christian Kirk. The Cardinals can get a 2023 third-round compensatory pick for losing Kirk. They also know a rapport exists between Brown and quarterback Kyler Murray, who played together at Oklahoma.

“It mitigates risk to have the existing quarterback-receiver relationship, so I think it helped Vegas be aggressive in swinging the deal to reunite Davante (Adams) with (Derek) Carr, and I think it helps for Arizona as well,” an exec said. “That said, we never had a problem with Hollywood Brown because he can’t get off press. But look, they have been driven to get speed at that position as long as Kliff has been there. He loved (Jaylen) Waddle and (Henry) Ruggs and all these fast guys, so I get it, but I’m not impressed by the player.”

SEATTLE

Pete Carroll acts like he’s going into battle in 2022 with QBs DEAN LOCK and GENO SMITH.  Brady Henderson of ESPN.com:

Seattle Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said Thursday that he doesn’t “at all” envision the team trading for a quarterback.

Carroll’s comments came during an interview with Sports Radio 93.3 KJR-FM in Seattle. He was not asked specifically about Baker Mayfield — organizations aren’t allowed to publicly comment on potential interest in players on other teams — but instead whether the Seahawks are interested in adding a veteran quarterback with starting experience.

“We’re always competing,” Carroll said, giving one of his stock responses to such questions. “I’m not saying anything you didn’t think I was going to say, but fortunately that’s always been the way we’ve operated, and it fits again. So we’re looking. I don’t see us making a trade for anybody at all. I don’t see that happening. But we’re certainly going to continue to be open to chances to help our club, and meanwhile we’re just going to be battling and competing our tails off. There’s always possibilities, so we keep open to that.”

Mayfield’s expected departure from the Cleveland Browns and the Seahawks’ current options at quarterback following the Russell Wilson trade — which include Geno Smith and Drew Lock — have led to speculation that Mayfield could land in Seattle. During an appearance on the “Ya Never Know” podcast last month, Mayfield guessed that Seattle would “probably” be his most likely landing spot.

Mayfield is set to make a guaranteed $19 million this season — one factor that is believed to be holding up his trade market — but he could be signed for any amount in the event that the Browns weren’t able to find a trade partner and were forced to release him.

The Seahawks did not draft a quarterback with any of their nine picks, leaving Smith and Lock as the two who are battling to replace Wilson. Seattle also has a pair of developmental prospects in Jacob Eason and undrafted free agent Levi Lewis from Louisiana Lafayette.

After his comment about not trading for a veteran quarterback, Carroll was asked about the possibility of adding one who could become a free agent.

“There’s no chance I’m going to tell you anything more than what I just told you, but I love you for trying,” Carroll said, laughing. “Honestly, we’re going to keep looking and seeing what’s available, but only to help our club and try to make us better. If the case presents itself, we’re going to be ready for it.”

AFC WEST

KANSAS CITY

The anonymous execs of Mike Sando:

It’s never difficult to discern what the Chiefs are trying to accomplish. When they wanted to address their offensive line last offseason, they traded for tackle Orlando Brown, signed the most expensive free-agent guard in Joe Thuney and drafted multiple starters. Using seven of 10 draft choices on defense this year, including five for defensive backs, left little doubt of the Chiefs’ direction.

“They went all-in for defense a few years ago as well, so that is their pattern, to fix the problem,” an exec said. “One difference in this draft was, they not only got what I think are good players, but they avoided some of the character risks they might have taken in the past. These are all really good football character people.”

Though most execs had Stingley and Gardner as the clear top two corners, a few did prefer Trent McDuffie, the corner Kansas City drafted at 21 after trading up eight spots with New England. On our podcast before the draft, Mueller said he had McDuffie as the top corner in the draft based partly on scheme versatility and what he described as an impeccable sense of timing in coverage and when playing the ball. He ranked McDuffie as the 10th-best player in the draft.

“I thought Minnesota was going to take McDuffie at 12 before they traded out,” an exec said. “I had him in that 15-20 range, more in the teens, because you are talking about a cornerback who is under 5-11. I do love the player, but the size does affect the value some.”

It was interesting to see Kansas City and Green Bay each select two defensive players in the first round after creating major holes at receiver by trading Hill and Adams, respectively. Both teams did draft wide receivers, but they filled the void by signing veterans and using less premium picks. For Kansas City, that meant making Skyy Moore the 13th receiver selected and the final one taken in the first two rounds.

“Kansas City is in better position than Green Bay because their quarterback is younger,” an exec said. “It is rare you have a team that has made however many straight AFC Championship games then have extra draft capital in multiple drafts. That is a pretty good position to be in, whereas for Green Bay, you are hoping the guy from North Dakota State (Christian Watson) pans out and that Rodgers stays more than an extra year.”

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE

Most media have been singing the praises of the Ravens draft operation, but some anonymous execs aren’t as enamored per Mike Sando of The Athletic:

One exec joked that if the Ravens selected a punter in the first round, analysts would probably applaud Baltimore for smartly zigging when the rest of the league was zagging. Without question, the Ravens’ long-term success has earned them the benefit of the doubt. But there is growing doubt from some who have long held the Ravens in high regard.

“The No. 1 reason teams miss early in the draft is when they go for the outlier,” an evaluator said. “They try to roll 11 in Vegas instead of seven. That is Baltimore in this draft.”

There’s some fear the Ravens lowered their odds for success by using early picks for outlier players at less premium positions: 6-foot-4 safety Kyle Hamilton at 14, undersized center Tyler Linderbaum at 25, injured outside linebacker David Ojabo in the second round and, yes, a punter in the fourth, before anyone else drafted one.

“A lot depends on how you view Linderbaum, because it is beauty in the eye of the beholder with him,” an evaluator said. “There is not a great precedent of guys his size being great players in the league. He is very similar size-wise to Garrett Bradbury, who just got his fifth-year option declined. Kyle Hamilton checked every box except for the athletic component.”

If there were large numbers of 6-4 college safeties failing in the NFL year after year, we would know with greater certainty height was a limiting factor. But few safeties that tall exist at any level. Does that mean the hit rate is far lower for them?

“I’m more bullish on Baltimore, but I can see the skepticism,” an exec said. “While I like a lot of the players they picked, the positions they focused on were kind of weird: strong safety, center, nose tackle, punter, two tight ends. Kyle Hamilton fell and probably for a reason. He is a weird shape, tall and slow. Linderbaum was highly rated, but he’s a center. Ojabo, they got a quote-unquote value pick there, but he might not play. Travis Jones, he is a guy that the analytics loved. His measurables were very good. But his tape was not.”

Trading Hollywood Brown, drafting zero receivers and loading up on tight ends could signal Baltimore doubling down on its run-heavy offense rather than trying to unlock a conventional passing game by surrounding Lamar Jackson with upgraded traditional receiving weaponry.

“They just stick so heavily to their board that if someone is higher than a wide receiver, they are definitely going to take that other person, but they might be a little slow in adjusting to positional importance,” an exec said.

CINCINNATI

Mike Sando of The Athletic collects some thoughts on the Bengals draft exploits from anonymous execs:

The Bengals picked the right year to be terrible (2020) and the right year to suddenly become a Super Bowl team (2021). That allowed them to pick in the top five when Ja’Marr Chase was available in the draft one year ago and at the other end of the round in this draft, where teams tended to see greater value.

“Even if (veteran safety) Jessie Bates signs the (franchise) tender, Daxton Hill is a good add,” an exec said. “You also notice they made two targeted trade-ups, for the corner (Cam Taylor-Britt) in the second round and the other safety (fifth-rounder Tycen Anderson). I see them going from being maybe the least aggressive team in acquiring players to maybe a little bit middle of the pack, targeting their guys and going and doing it.”

Execs who questioned the quality of the offensive linemen Cincinnati added in free agency noted that the Bengals waited until the fourth round before addressing the position with North Dakota State’s Cordell Volson, the last of four tackles taken in a 26-pick span.

“I like their first pick (Hill), and it makes sense they would target him given their defensive coordinator’s history coaching the secondary,” an exec said. “He could play safety, he could play corner, he could play them all and could be a good nickel for them. He is pretty talented. Taylor-Britt can really run and he is tough, he is physical, but he’s a bit of a tweener, and I’m not sure how that goes ultimately.”

PITTSBURGH

Adam Rittenberg of ESPN.com gets some comments on the QBs in the draft, especially QB KENNY PICKETT from college coaches:

A Power 5 coach attributed two factors to the poor quarterback showing: An underwhelming 2017 quarterback recruiting class and the transfer portal. Other than Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa and Stanford’s Davis Mills, the 2017 quarterback class hasn’t really materialized in the NFL. Some struggled in college — Hunter Johnson (Clemson/Northwestern), Tate Martell (Ohio State/Miami/UNLV), Lowell Narcisse (LSU, UTSA) — while others are still looking for a breakthrough, such as Penn State’s Sean Clifford and LSU’s Myles Brennan.

“You get to that top 10, man, it’s bad,” the coach said. “For some, it’s a byproduct of the portal. And it goes back to, they never developed. It’s unbelievable. Their best football was in high school and on the [7-on-7] circuit throwing with no defensive linemen hitting them.

“Just horrible. We were looking at it before the draft and were like, ‘Look at all these misses.'”

Coaches said a lack of size also hurt this year’s quarterback draft class. They felt the right quarterback went first in Pitt’s Kenny Pickett, who will stay in the same city and facility with the Pittsburgh Steelers, who selected him No. 20 overall.

“Pickett was by far the one true NFL guy,” a Power 5 coach said Friday. “I don’t think the rest of them are first-round guys. It would have been a stretch.”

“Super-competitive guy, playmaker,” an ACC coach added of Pickett. “He’s tough and obviously, being at Pittsburgh will be good for him. He does fumble a lot, and that’s probably the one thing that could get him.”

AFC SOUTH

HOUSTON

Thoughts on Houston’s draft from Mike Sando’s anonymous execs:

The Texans were flush with early picks for a change, a minor miracle when one considers where the Deshaun Watson situation appeared to stand not long ago.

“To be honest, ever since the Deshaun Watson trade, I have a lot of respect for (GM Nick) Caserio, the way he held the line,” an exec said. “At first, I bought into the criticism when people said they should have traded him before the legal issues, that his value was diminished, that the no-trade clause would be a burden. But the way they played that trade, to force teams to provide trade terms before visiting with Watson, was really well done.”

Three first-round picks, a 2023 third and fourths in 2022 and 2024 gave Houston a chance. Trading back from 13 to 15 with Philadelphia added three more picks in this draft.

“I wouldn’t say there is any consistent theme behind what they are doing other than getting as many talented players as they can and seeing what sticks,” an exec said. “They are not forcing a quarterback. I don’t know if that is the right move, but there also wasn’t a great quarterback prospect in this draft, and they have future 1s.”

It was interesting to see the Texans and Jets use top-four picks for cornerbacks while running schemes known for coverage concepts that do not always require the absolute best athletes at the position. Then again, with the way Houston has shuffled through coaches, perhaps this pick was made with the organizational future in mind and less regard for the current scheme.

“I think (Derek) Stingley was a top-three pick on most boards,” an exec said. “He is super freaky, fluid. He could be the best corner prospect to come out since Stephon Gilmore. He has the size, the length, the movement, the ball skills. Just as a pure prospect, he checks every box, and is more fluid than Jalen Ramsey was. I like ‘Sauce’ Gardner a lot, but I thought Stingley has a different level of potential, like Hall of Fame-type potential.”

INDIANAPOLIS

Was losing in Week 17 to Jacksonville the last straw, or had QB CARSON WENTZ already worn out his welcome? Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

It’s easy to assume that if the Colts had simply beaten the Jaguars in Week 18 of the 2021 season and qualified for the playoffs, the Colts would have kept quarterback Carson Wentz. That assumption quite possibly would be incorrect.

“I think we still would’ve had some hard discussions,” G.M. Chris Ballard said during a Wednesday visit to #PFTPM. “Just the way we played down the stretch, and we knew we needed to make some improvements in that area. The one thing I think [owner] Jim [Irsay] and I and [coach] Frank [Reich] are when we know something’s not a good fit, don’t just try to justify it. Let’s move forward. We all knew we were going to get egg on our face. That is what it is, but at the end of the day it’s about doing the right thing for the organization. I think even if we would’ve ended up in the playoffs, we would’ve had some hard discussions going forward.”

The candor is surprising, and impressive. It speaks to the deeper issues with which the Colts dealt in 2021. It also shows a willingness to admit a mistake and move on, instead of doubling down and potentially making things worse.

It couldn’t have gotten much worse for the Colts than it did in losing to the Jaguars, a team that wasn’t really playing for anything in the last game of the year.

‘I mean it stung, I’m not going to lie to you,” Ballard said. “I went into a dark place, too. I’ll tell you what losing does, and especially the way it happened. It really makes you take a hard look at everything you’re doing and probably makes some harder decisions that you might not have made. So really evaluating everything we’re doing from top to bottom. It’s a prideful group. It’s a prideful organization. An owner that really wants to win. An organization that wants to win. We think we have a good football team and needed some change and needed some tweaks. We think we were able to do good work this offseason to get us moving back in the right direction.”

It helped to have Matt Ryan fall into their laps. Ballard said they didn’t panic, they opted to be patient, and it all worked out. Ryan, the 2016 NFL MVP, could be exactly the difference maker the Colts need. But for their willingness to move on from Wentz, they wouldn’t have been in position to land Ryan.

JACKSONVILLE

The execs of Mike Sando have this to say about the Jaguars:

Takes on the Jaguars’ draft were diverse and interesting. Some didn’t like Jacksonville entering the draft with 12 selections and using only seven. There were questions about top pick Travon Walker’s college production, whether trading up to select an inside linebacker (Devin Lloyd) at 27 was smart and whether the team did enough to help quarterback Trevor Lawrence, especially on the offensive line.

The Lloyd evaluations were the most interesting, beginning before the draft when my “Football GM” podcast partner Randy Mueller, a 35-year NFL evaluator and three-time GM, called Lloyd his most fun player to evaluate in the entire class. Mueller ranked Lloyd seventh among all the available players during a podcast recorded before the draft. He saw some similarities to the Cowboys’ Micah Parsons and thought Lloyd would be an outstanding pro.

A less-seasoned evaluator with a background in analytics called Lloyd the best player in the draft when setting aside positional value.

“To have the top player in the draft be a linebacker, the last time I can think of might have been with Luke Kuechly,” this evaluator said. “Lloyd is a clean prospect, loves football, no injury history, highly productive multiple years, team captain. I was shocked he dropped as far as he dropped and wasn’t even the first linebacker to go.”

The Parsons comparisons go only so far.

“He’s an ILB who is not going to rush off the edge,” an exec said. “He will blitz. He can run, but he doesn’t have that explosion like Parsons.”

As for Walker, the question one exec posed was, can he become DeForest Buckner, another player Jaguars GM Trent Baalke selected.

“Walker is risky with the first pick, but Baalke loves his traits, he loves swinging for the fences, he is not afraid to be a contrarian,” an exec said.

THIS AND THAT

FEARLESS PREDICTIONS FROM JASON LaCANFORA

Jason LaCanfora of CBSSports.com offers 10 predictions for 2022. #3 and #4 seem counter-intuitive on their face, so let’s see what his reasoning might be:

Who doesn’t love fearless predictions? Especially in the dog days of May, with the draft now a week ago and real football still months away? The prime free agents are already signed. We’ve seen more blockbuster deals than anyone could have anticipated. Rosters are well taking shape. We can start to think we know things about the 2022 season, right?

Certainly, more information will be available next week when the schedules are revealed. It tends to be a significant factor, as it’s not just who you play, but when you play them. But for these purposes I don’t believe it would sway much. There are some things I am starting to believe – or talk myself into – and some hunches I am willing to play, and what better time than now to share them (and open myself up for ridicule and derision I the process!).

So after much deliberation and consternation, I am willing to put these 10 bold predictions into the universe. Feel free to throw them back at me:

1. Russell Wilson, 2022 MVP

I am Team Russ. Always have been. Always will be. Dudes like this don’t get dealt in their prime. And make no mistake, he is still very much in his prime. This is the best cast he has had around him in a long time. This is a coach who is going to be the opposite of Pete Carroll and will be skewing everything possible in favor of the passing game. It’s go time. They have speed. They have big targets. They will have a scheme that has worked wonderfully well in Green Bay and with the L.A. Rams, among others. I see Denver as being a very real factor in a loaded AFC, and Russ is going to get his cookies.

2. David Ojabo will have a monster season … in 2023

I love the Ravens’ selection of the Michigan pass rusher in Round 2 as much as any pick in this draft. He is a top 10 talent and he has natural pass rush instincts and moves and a ceiling as high as any pass rusher in this draft, including the top two picks. He will be an instant fit in Baltimore’s evolving scheme under new coordinator Mike Macdonald. He is going to be the first impact pass rusher the Ravens have developed and cultivated since Terrell Suggs. But it ain’t gonna be this year. At least I figure it won’t be. After his horrible pre-draft injury, and given the Ravens’ massive injury woes in recent years and multiple issues with players returning from surgery, a redshirt year and a monster season a year from now makes sense to me.

3. Aaron Rodgers will retire after the season

Green Bay won’t be the same this season. He keeps losing more and more of his guys. Davante Adams is gone and his offensive line might be standing to look much different in 2023. Yes, walking away from another $60M guaranteed in 2023 sounds crazy to most of us. But I anticipate some real regression from this group and they will be in decline and this cat does his own thing and revels in it. Would it really be out of character to put the Packers through all this drama the last two offseasons just to hang it up in the middle of a new extension? And wouldn’t it be even more quintessential Rodgers if he did it after …

4. Packers will trade Jordan Love

Someone will get desperate. This kid is going to want to play. He should get a chance to play. Sitting three years is ridiculous and someone is going to need a QB at some point due to injury, even if Jimmy Garoppolo and Baker Mayfield are dealt.

5. Lamar Jackson will be on a franchise tag by this time next year

An extension has proven to be elusive and the QB market is going to keep changing dramatically once Wilson gets his new deal (and probably Kyler Murray, too). Jackson will be okay with playing things out unless the Ravens drastically alter the scope of what they are willing to do. Neither side will press the issue in the short term. A tag will seem inevitable. And once it comes it will only drive the price up more and will only further complicate the ability to get something done long-term unless someone blinks.

6. Deshaun Watson will play fewer than eight games

No one knows exactly what the NFL will decide here. But I can’t imagine any decision coming until right before the season and I don’t think the NFL will be worried about looking too stringent. They seemed perfectly fine with Watson in the shadows all of last season and won’t be worried about it this year, either, especially after how the Browns reworked the QB’s contract to minimize the financial hit of a suspension. Better to appear to be taking these allegations very seriously than not seriously enough, he got a full salary not to play last year and won’t lose much no matter how longer he is suspended this year. Thus the only way to signal intent is with the length of the penalty. I expect it to be considerable.

7. Browns will eat $12M of Baker Mayfield’s contract

They have no real choice if they want to get anything for him. This will only get more messy and more ugly the longer it goes. They have to bite the bullet and they will eventually bite the bullet. Have done it before and will do it again and this is a case of addition by subtraction. They’ll have enough drama with Watson. Can’t have it from the No. 3 QB, too.

8. The Lions will not be a last place team

Low bar to clear but they are finally ready to clear it. I love their draft, as is well documented at this point. I hated the Bears draft and, well, basically their entire offseason. Justin Fields is gonna get clobbered. Detroit is actually going to get better. They will play a weak schedule. They are poised to make gains.

9. The Eagles will be in the NFC title game

I was big on them a year ago and telling you guys in October that they will surprise people. They made the playoffs. They are ascending and have had a great offseason. The rest of the conference is largely in regression. I think Jalen Hurts has some ‘it’ factor to him. They will have more bite on defense and can play keep-away on offense.

10. The Patriots are in trouble

Mac Jones losing Josh McDaniels (and now having a mystery coordinator) and this franchise adding next to nothing a year after spending big won’t fare well. A front seven that fell apart down the stretch a year ago doesn’t look much better to me. The Dolphins and Jets won’t be easy to walk all over next season. A sophomore slump or two would be damning. I have my reservations

2022 DRAFT

Sam Monson of ProFootballFocus.com identifies six teams that he thinks did really well in last week’s draft:

Here are the biggest winners of the 2022 NFL Draft:

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Best pick: Round 3 (83), LB Nakobe Dean, Georgia

Biggest reach: Round 6 (181), EDGE Kyron Johnson, Kansas (-106 vs. PFF Big Board)

I

f you factor in the A.J. Brown trade, which seems like a very fair thing to do given when it happened, the Eagles absolutely nailed this draft. Brown is likely a better receiver than anybody in this class, and they were able to secure him for a mid-first-round pick. They can afford to pay him his new contract because the rest of that receiver room is on very modest rookie contracts.  Brown not only provides Philadelphia with the dominant No. 1 receiver it was missing but also complements DeVonta Smith perfectly from a skill set point of view.

Jordan Davis has sky-high potential and joins a defensive line with the talent to allow him to rotate and maximize his impact. He also meshes perfectly with an undersized linebacker crew that needs all the protection upfront it can get. Cam Jurgens gives the team a succession plan to Jason Kelce without needing him to play right away, and Dean in the third round is one of the steals of the draft.

Dean slipped reportedly due to medical concerns, but his size and lack of a 40 time in the pre-draft process can’t have helped. Turn on the tape of Georgia’s defense, however, and you will see him look like the best player on a defense loaded with first-round talent. He will still have big bodies like Davis keeping him clean, and his ability to read and diagnose plays is second to none. If the ex-Bulldog is healthy, this is the best value in the draft.

NEW YORK JETS

Best pick: Round 1 (10), WR Garrett Wilson, Ohio State

Biggest reach: Round 4 (117), EDGE Micheal Clemons, Texas A&M (-54 vs. PFF Big Board)

The Jets had the kind of first round that can transform a franchise. With two picks in the top 10, they were always likely to be well-positioned, but the board also fell in an advantageous way, allowing them to get the No. 1 cornerback and receiver on their board, Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner and Wilson.

Gardner didn’t allow a single touchdown in college, and he allowed a lower passer rating in coverage than what comes of simply throwing the ball at the turf on every play. He is labeled as a press-man corner because of his unusual length and body type, but he might be better in zone and fits perfectly within Robert Saleh’s system.

Wilson may not have elite traits in any area but is very good in all of them. That leads many to believe his ceiling isn’t that high, but his skill set can still turn him into an elite NFL player.

The team was reportedly very high on Jermaine Johnson II and considered drafting him with one of its first-round selections. Though that would have been seen as a reach relative to PFF’s big board and his college production, to capitalize on him sliding a little and trading back into the round to secure him at No. 26 overall gives the team three players all consistently mocked to them inside the top-10 pre-draft.

Lower down, the Jets made a move to draft Breece Hall, a workhorse running back who should upgrade that position in a big way, even if the value is in question. Max Mitchell is a really technically sound offensive lineman battling physical limitations at the next level. This was an excellent draft that could propel the Jets a long way forward.

ATLANTA FALCONS

Best pick: Round 3 (74), QB Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati

Biggest reach: Round 6 (213), TE John FitzPatrick, Georgia (Not ranked on PFF Big Board)

The Falcons had a phenomenal draft from start to finish. They were could have taken a quarterback in the first round, which in hindsight seems like madness, but they took the top receiver on their board in Drake London instead. London has some question marks about speed but is a contested-catch monster, leading the nation in that category with 19 despite playing in just eight games in 2021. He isn’t just great at the catch point but is spectacular at reading and tracking the flight of the ball, making adjustments to put himself in position to win as well as just dominating physically only when the ball arrives. He will add an interesting mix of skills alongside 2021 first-rounder Kyle Pitts and the rest of that offense.

Arnold Ebiketie on the edge and Troy Anderson at linebacker represent legitimate athletes and very productive college players to help a defense badly in need of an overhaul. Getting Ridder in the third round knocks the value out of the park. Ridder may be the most NFL-ready of the quarterback draft class, and he has a chance to showcase from the bench that he can take over from Marcus Mariota in a year’s time and be part of the future in Atlanta.

PFF really liked almost all of Atlanta’s 2022 NFL Draft picks, with only FitzPatrick seen as any kind of reach relative to the big board.

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Best pick: Round 3 (76), DI Travis Jones, Connecticut

Biggest reach: Round 4 (130), P Jordan Stout, Penn State (-203 vs. the PFF Big Board)

The Ravens just do this better than most teams. One of the shrewdest and most data-driven franchises in the NFL, Baltimore came out of the first round with two players of positions with limited value — safety Kyle Hamilton and center Tyler Linderbaum — which seems counterintuitive until you factor in the precise spot each was selected at. Hamilton was being talked about as a potential top-five player until average 40 times poisoned his standing, and Linderbaum is the best center prospect to enter the league in a decade — a player who could easily be good enough to change the dynamics of his position’s value.

Baltimore also pounced on the fall of edge rusher David Ojabo, a first-round talent who slid into the second after unfortunately blowing out his Achilles during his pro day. Jones is one of the best value picks of the draft and goes to a team with a better track record than anybody at maximizing Travis Jones-shaped defensive linemen. The Ravens will also hope to recreate their success of developing Orlando Brown Jr. with the similarly gargantuan Daniel Faalele. The only real quibble with this draft was how high they took a punter. Even that pick still netted them the best-graded player at his position in the nation in 2021.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Best pick: Round 2 (54), WR Skyy Moore, Western Michigan

Biggest reach: Round 7 (259), S Nazeeh Johnson, Marshall (Not ranked on PFF Big Board)

The Chiefs looked like they were using the PFF Big Board to draft, picking players at a lower spot than their rank on the board for seven of their first eight selections. Some of those picks were massive values by that measure.

In the first round, they grabbed Trent McDuffie and halted the slide of George Karlaftis, whose college production was better than multiple edge rushers drafted ahead of him.

Kansas City chose to wait on a wide receiver despite a major need at the position having traded away Tyreek Hill. The team was rewarded for that patience with Moore, a massively underrated receiver who could be a stud in this offense. Moore has better tape and was a higher-ranked prospect than Jahan Dotson, who went No. 16 overall in the first round.

The Chiefs kept hitting major bargains all the way down, with linebacker Leo Chenal too much value to pass up in the third round despite the team having no real need at linebacker. They then selected Darian Kinnard, who could potentially push to start for them, in the fifth round. Kansas City had some work to do in this draft, and the front office secured a bevy of value selections.

CAROLINA PANTHERS

Best pick: Round 3 (94), QB Matt Corral, Ole Miss

Biggest reach: Round 6 (200), T Cade Mays, Tennessee (-31 vs. the PFF Big Board)

Sometimes, the draft is about getting yourself out of the hole you dug beforehand, and the Panthers were in the unfortunate position of having no picks between No. 6 and No. 137 overall despite a desperate need at quarterback and no player worthy of that first selection. They chose to roll the dice, eschewing passer with the sixth pick and taking Ikem Ekwonu instead, a tackle atop many draft boards who was in the running to be drafted No. 1 overall at one point.

From that point, all the Panthers could do was wait and hope they had a chance at a quarterback in a year when the class won’t be coveted by the rest of the league. Late in the third round, they eventually decided they were in range to trade up and grab Corral, who had been expected to go in the second round or even sneak into the bottom of Round 1.

Corral has a lot of questions about his game — his college offense ran RPOs on upward of 40% of his dropbacks — but in the third round, he provides a legitimate alternative to Sam Darnold. And Carolina didn’t have to use its only significant asset at the top of the draft to get him.

Later on, the team added some legitimate athletes with upside, but this draft is about the first two picks. Whether by luck or by design, the Panthers were able to come out of this draft with an elite player at No. 6 overall and a quarterback with starting potential. That’s not something that seemed possible heading into the event.