This from Andrew Siciliano as you ponder your selections:

@AndrewSiciliano

It’s official.

Home-field advantage is gone.

ROAD teams are 67-65-1 in 2020.

No @NFL  season since the 1970 merger has ended with the home teams collectively below .500.

Actually with the Colts win last night, road teams are 68-65-1.

NFC NORTH

MINNESOTA

Sheil Kapadia of The Athletic makes the case that the Vikings can and will make the playoffs:

 The Vikings make the playoffs

It’s official: They’ve somehow sucked me back in! They started out 0-3 and then fell to 1-5. But the Vikings have beaten the Packers and Lions in back-to-back weeks and might be finding themselves. Dalvin Cook has been the best running back in the league, and the offense is all the way up to seventh in efficiency. They are three-point favorites at Chicago on Monday night and then play three games at home against the Cowboys, Panthers and Jaguars. They will likely be favored in all three of those. The Vikings’ two toughest remaining games are at Tampa and at New Orleans. But the Vikings have already beaten the Packers, and they took the Seahawks to the wire. They can compete with the NFC’s best teams. The defense ranks 15th in efficiency and has faced the toughest slate of opposing offenses in the league. Minnesota would likely need to go 6-2 in the second half of the season to get in. That doesn’t seem crazy to me. Are you convinced?

More from Seth Walder of ESPN.com:

After crashing pretty hard to start the season, Minnesota is maybe back in this thing? FPI, which really never lost faith in the 3-5 Vikings to begin with, doesn’t think it’s a reach.

Let’s start with whether they’ll sweep the Bears. If Minnesota can win Monday in Chicago and then again while hosting the Bears in December, you’re looking at almost a 50/50 shot (47%) of getting into the playoffs. Those are Minnesota’s two highest-leverage games of the season, which makes sense — both teams are vying for wild-card spots. A loss in either of those games drops the Vikings’ chances to 16%.

Eight wins probably won’t cut it for the Vikings in the NFC, even with a seventh seed, as FPI gives Minnesota just a 10% shot to reach the playoffs with a .500 record. At nine wins, though, that number jumps way up, but it depends heavily on whom the losses are against. If the losses come at the hands of unideal opponents — say the Bears and Bucs — the Vikings would have a 59% chance of reaching the postseason. But if they lose two games instead to non-wild-card contenders like the Cowboys and Lions, the Vikings would fly all the way up to 87%.

The long story short, the Vikings need to win nine games and make sure to beat the Bears twice along the way.

NFC EAST

NEW YORK GIANTS

More drama with WR GOLDEN TATE III.  Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com:

Golden Tate was scheduled to address the media for the first time since being benched for last week’s game against Washington. Instead, the wide receiver was a late scratch after the New York Giants said he suffered a knee injury late in Thursday’s practice.

The original belief is that the injury is not anything potentially season-ending, a source told ESPN. Tate was officially listed as a limited participant in practice.

It has been an eventful season for Tate. He missed the season opener with a hamstring injury, fought Los Angeles Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey at midfield in Week 4 and expressed his displeasure with his shrinking role late in a Monday night loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, then was suspended for his actions.

Just when he was supposed to return to face one of his former teams, the Philadelphia Eagles, he hurt his knee.

The veteran receiver was set to resume his previous role, according to wide receivers coach Tyke Tolbert. Tate was playing just over 50% of the offensive snaps before being benched.

He seemed to be participating fully during the portion of Thursday’s practice that was open to the media.

“We’re kind of past that issue now,” coach Joe Judge said before practice. “We’re getting ready to play Philly right now. Golden’s getting ready to play Philly as well right now.

“I love the way he came to practice [Wednesday]. I love the way he’s preparing so far today. We’re going to be on the field today. We’ll be over in the stadium. It’ll be a good opportunity for the entire team to work on the turf for a day today and get moving forward with it. But look, we’re totally past the whole situation last week. It is what it is. I look forward to getting Golden on the field with us. We’ll roll him in fast.”

Undrafted rookie Austin Mack took Tate’s snaps in Sunday’s win over Washington and led the Giants with 72 yards on four receptions.

Tate is a former Pro Bowl receiver with 682 receptions for 8,116 yards and 46 touchdowns in 112 career starts. But last week he was told to stay home Wednesday while the Giants practiced and spent most of the rest of the week working with the scout team.

NFC SOUTH

CAROLINA

QB TEDDY BRIDGEWATER took a cue from his predecessor as Panthers QB.  David Newton of ESPN.com:

Former Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton was known for wearing outrageous outfits to news conferences, but not once did he wear a black and white striped official’s shirt, as his replacement did Thursday.

“I’m here to throw a flag on any questions I don’t want to answer,” Teddy Bridgewater said with a big smile.

When pressed for details, Bridgewater quipped, “I just came back from my other job at Foot Locker.”

The shirt came at an opportune moment. The Panthers (3-6) committed a season-high 12 penalties for 82 yards in Sunday’s 33-31 loss at Kansas City.

On an earlier Zoom conference, coach Matt Rhule cited the flags as one reason for the setback.

Penalties also were a big reason Carolina (3-6) lost in Week 2 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3), this Sunday’s opponent (1 p.m., Fox). The Panthers committed nine penalties for 77 yards in the 31-17 setback. Two penalties on third down by first-round pick Derrick Brown led to first downs. The first led to a touchdown.

Penalties in general have been an issue for the Panthers, who are tied with the winless New York Jets for the fourth-most penalties — 58 for 455 yards – in the NFL. Twenty-two of those led directly to first downs, tied for seventh-most in the league, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

Carolina is 2-1 when it commits four or fewer penalties and 1-5 when it commits five or more.

Bridgewater insisted the timing of his outfit had nothing to do with trying to emphasize how much penalties hurt Carolina against the defending Super Bowl champions or the Bucs (5-3).

NFC WEST

LOS ANGELES RAMS

The Rams have RB DARRELL HENDERSON back per Greg Beachem of the AP:

@gregbeacham

Rams RB Darrell Henderson will be able to play Sunday, Sean McVay says. He skipped practice Wednesday with a thigh injury, but will work out today.

AFC WEST

LAS VEGAS

Covid-19 alert!

The Raiders have lost another player to the dreaded viral scourge.  Sam Gordon of the Las Vegas Review-Journal:

The Raiders on Thursday placed linebacker Cory Littleton on the Reserve/COVID-19 list.

He joins right tackle Trent Brown, who was placed on the list for a second time after experiencing lingering symptoms from his initial bout with the virus in October.

It is unclear if Littleton tested positive for the virus or was in proximity with somebody who tested positive. He practiced Wednesday, but was not present at practice on Thursday.

– – –

Sheil Kapadia of The Athletic sees the Raiders in the postseason:

The Raiders make the playoffs

It’s happened just once in the past 17 seasons, but at 5-3, the Raiders are well-positioned to snag a wild-card spot. They have a minus-11 point differential but also have impressive wins over teams such as the Saints and the Chiefs. According to TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) model, the Raiders have the sixth-best offense. The defense ranks 30th in efficiency, but there’s reason to think the Raiders can improve there. They’ve faced the third-toughest schedule of offenses and have produced turnovers on just 5.4 percent of opponents’ drives. That’s the lowest rate in the league. To put it into context, only one team in the last five years has had a takeaway rate that low for a full season. In other words, it’s likely that the Raiders get some better turnover luck, and that would boost their defensive stats. The bottom line is they can do the thing that matters the most: move the ball efficiently on offense. And the Raiders have the ninth-easiest remaining schedule. I see a playoff game in their future.

AFC NORTH

CINCINNATI

A bold prediction from James Jones of NFL.com:

James Jones: When Joe Burrow takes on the 8-0 Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, he will be the eighth rookie starting quarterback since 1950 to face an undefeated team in Week 10 or later (excluding strike seasons). The rookies went 1-6 in those games — Mark Sanchez was the only winner, leading the Jets over Peyton Manning’s Indianapolis Colts in Week 16 of 2009. Embracing the challenge as he always does, Burrow throws four touchdowns against the Steelers’ fifth-ranked passing defense and fourth-ranked scoring defense to lead the Bengals to victory.

CLEVELAND

Covid alert in Cleveland!  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Browns are the latest NFL team to close their facility because of a positive COVID-19 test.

“Earlier this morning, the Cleveland Browns were informed that a player’s test results have come back positive for COVID-19,” the team said in a statement. “The individual has immediately self-isolated and the Browns facility is closed this morning while contact tracing is being conducted. The team will continue to hold meetings remotely (part of the NFL-NFLPA intensive protocol) and will consult with the league and medical experts on the appropriate next steps as the health and safety of our players, coaches, staff and the entire community remains our highest priority.”

The Browns host the Texans on Sunday. The scheduling of that game is currently unchanged.

COVID-19 cases are rising across the country, and the NFL is no exception, with an uptick in positive tests. The league is still optimistic that every team can finish the entire 16-game regular season schedule on time, but plans are in place to delay or change the format of the postseason if that doesn’t happen.

PITTSBURGH

The Steelers thinks that QB BEN ROETHLISBERGER will win his battle with Covid (or Covid contact) by Sunday.  Brooke Pryor of ESPN.com:

Because he’s on the reserve/COVID-19 list, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger isn’t available to practice for the Pittsburgh Steelers all week.

But the undefeated Steelers are still anticipating that he’ll be available to play against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. Roethlisberger, 38, went on the list Tuesday morning as a high-risk close contact after tight end Vance McDonald returned a positive test for the coronavirus a day earlier.

“We’ll prepare and continue to prepare as if Ben is playing,” offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner said Thursday. “As of this point right now, he hasn’t missed a rep. He doesn’t practice on Wednesdays anyway. … there’s been various times in his career where he has not practiced all week and played in games and played successful in games. I don’t question that one bit.”

If he continues to test negative and not develop symptoms, Roethlisberger would be eligible to come off the COVID-19 list on Saturday and participate in the walk-through.

Without Roethlisberger at practice this week, Mason Rudolph and Josh Dobbs are each getting extra reps with the first team.

“Mason is taking reps,” Fichtner said. “Josh is taking reps. I don’t know if it’s equal reps, but we’re preparing both just like we would every week. They just get a few more reps this week on Thursday and Friday.”

Fichtner didn’t commit to playing one quarterback more than the other in Sunday’s game if Roethlisberger can’t go.

“Both of them to this point have worked their tails off to put themselves into that conversation,” he said.

Though he can’t be at practice physically, Roethlisberger is participating in virtual team meetings and communicating with his coaches.

“He’s been great, because obviously he’s accessible,” Fichtner said. “He’s got plenty of free time. We’re the ones that have to make the time to fit. … Ben likes to text, so we get texts at night and go back and forth about a lot of things. … It’s as if he’s been in the room.”

AFC SOUTH

HOUSTON

Fired PR chief Amy Palcic has lawyered up.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com sounds like he would like to take the case:

In abruptly firing their P.R. director, the Texans acquired a major P.R. problem. The Texans also acquired a potential legal problem.

Via Ben Fischer of Sports Business Daily, Amy Palcic has hired Houston lawyer Joseph Ahmad.

“The only thing I can say is I’ve been retained by Amy, and other than that, at this time, I don’t really have anything to say,” Ahmad told Fischer.

That pretty much says it all. Fired employees usually hire lawyers to evaluate the facts in light of the applicable law in order to identify potential causes of action. A negotiated settlement agreement also is possible, with the threat of litigation providing leverage for it.

Palcic reportedly was told that she’s no longer “cultural fit,” which could be a pretext for one or more motivations protected by state or federal law. She also possibly has a contract that may have been breached, and she may have engaged in protected activity by for example raising concerns raised over specific employment policies, practices, or comments made in the workplace by management.

Whatever the legal theory, if Ahmad identifies one, the case ultimately could turn on whether and to what extent he can blow holes in the “cultural fit” explanation. As the argument would go, if the employer’s stated reason can be shown to be bogus or illogical, it’s possible that the stated reason was cover for a reason that violates the law.

In defending Palcic, it is frequently cited how responsive she was to the media and how much the players liked working with her.  From a management standpoint, these are not necessarily plusses in today’s NFL.

INDIANAPOLIS

QB PHILIP RIVERS is 6-3 and he is now in the top 5 in passing yards. Jelani Scott ofNFL.com:

On a night where the Colts were rolling in all three phases, Philip Rivers managed to add an extra accolade to his already impressive resume.

Needing just three yards to move into fifth place on the NFL’s all-time passing yards list, Rivers completed his first pass of the game — an 11-yard strike to rookie Jonathan Taylor — to pass Hall of Famer (and childhood hero) Dan Marino’s 61,361 yards. He finished with 308 yards and one touchdown in the Colts’ 34-17 win over the Titans.

“It’s special, it’s special,” Rivers said of the accomplishment. “Those guys up there on that list, I don’t know that I’m in their category and that’s OK, but Dan Marino was on my wall. He was a poster on my wall as a young boy in Decatur and Athens, Alabama, so it’s special.

“Thankful that I’ve been able to play long enough. Thankful that I’ve been healthy enough to play over 230 in a row now and watching Dan Marino, meeting Dan Marino at the Senior Bowl, playing against his teams, it’s all special. It’s all just special and thankful that here, at 38, I’m still getting out here and competing and playing the game I love.”

Rivers’ big night now places him in a top-five group that includes all-time leader Drew Brees (79,536), Tom Brady (76,969), Peyton Manning (71,940) and Brett Favre (71,838).

THIS AND THAT

QUARTERBACK TIERS

Mike Sando of The Athletic has his long-running QB Tiers Rankings – and he’s done a midseason assessment.  It’s way too long to print here, but here are the highlights:

More than three months have passed since The Athletic published my 2020 Quarterback Tiers survey featuring insights from 50 NFL coaches and evaluators on the 35 most relevant veterans at the position. As midseason approached, I checked in with voters to get their thoughts on quarterbacks of interest. Below you’ll find their updated analysis as we go through select quarterbacks tier by tier, explaining whether a reassessment is in order.

Last offseason, the 50 coaches and evaluators placed every quarterback into five performance tiers, with Tier 1 reserved for the very best. Five quarterbacks landed in Tier 1, eight landed in Tier 2, 13 landed in Tier 3 and nine landed in Tier 4. A few quarterbacks did receive votes in Tier 5, reserved for players who should never start, but no quarterback received a majority of votes in that dubious category.

Tier 1 Revisited

A Tier 1 quarterback can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. He expertly handles pure passing situations. He has no real holes in his game.

2020 Tier 1 Quarterbacks

1 Patrick Mahomes

1 Russell Wilson

3 Aaron Rodgers

4 Drew Brees

5 Deshaun Watson

Mahomes, Wilson and Rodgers are who voters thought they were — the best of the best, clearly ahead of even the other QBs in the top tier. There was debate heading into the season over whether Brees still possessed enough physical ability to belong in Tier 1. There was acknowledgement from voters that Watson made it into this group despite not yet demonstrating an ability to handle pure-pass situations expertly. Views haven’t changed fundamentally, but Brees and Watson are interesting enough to warrant fresh commentary. For those interested in Rodgers, I’ve examined his situation separately, right before the season and more recently. We’ll continue here with Brees.

BREES

“They are playing good, the offense is rolling, he’s a big part of it,” a coach who would keep Brees in the top tier said. “They are able to do the things they are able to do because of his cerebral nature. He is the best of the pocket guys, but those guys ahead of him (in Tier 1) can do so much more.”

WATSON

There is precedent for a highly regarded young quarterback such as Watson suffering through team tumult and failing to lift his team out of it in the absence of sufficient help. Peyton Manning’s Indianapolis Colts posted a 6-10 record in his fourth season thanks largely to a defense that ranked last in points allowed. Watson is in his fourth season. The Texans fired their coach, Bill O’Brien, following an 0-4 start. They rank last in defensive expected points added (EPA). Manning’s Colts fired their coach, Jim Mora, after the season. Indy did have continuity and direction through future Hall of Fame general manager Bill Polian. Watson and the Texans do not appear as fortunate.

“He has definitely gotten better, but I don’t feel like he’s a guy that can totally carry them, where we are like, ‘Oh my God, you’ve gotta worry about him,’” a defensive coordinator said. “The mobility, after it breaks down, he can run and hurt you, but as far as a pure passer, he is not (Tier 1) yet.”

Coaches and evaluators are interested in seeing whether the next coaching staff in Houston installs a more enterprising passing game. They have wondered whether O’Brien held back because of a conservative nature or because he wasn’t sure whether Watson could handle more. The Texans are passing more frequently on early downs, early in games since the coaching change.

“When you watch him, you see elite toughness, you see elite leadership, but you don’t see elite accuracy or a guy who gets the ball out quick,” an evaluator said after the Texans’ 0-4 start. “As an outsider or a fan, you look at it and say, ‘Oh, he is scrambling around, he still makes that throw, he is dynamite.’ As an evaluator, I am thinking, ‘Why didn’t he get that out earlier?’ It does cause some concern.”

Tier 2 Revisited

A Tier 2 quarterback can carry his team sometimes but not as consistently. He can handle pure passing situations in doses and/or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. He has a hole or two in his game.

2020 Tier 2 Quarterbacks

6 Tom Brady

7 Lamar Jackson

8 Ben Roethlisberger

9 Matthew Stafford

10 Matt Ryan

11 Carson Wentz

12 Dak Prescott

13 Philip Rivers

The second tier is packed with quarterbacks of interest. Ben Roethlisberger has generally validated his standing while returning from injury to help Pittsburgh to its first 8-0 start. We can let his season continue to play out. Prescott, relegated to the third tier previously, was proving he belonged in this group until suffering a season-ending ankle injury in the fifth game.

BRADY

Brady and the Buccaneers were horrific during their 38-3 defeat to the Saints in Week 9. They weren’t impressive in a narrow victory over the previously 1-7 New York Giants a week earlier. Some coaches sense trouble in Tampa.

“I would have said Tier 1 until I watched the game against the Giants,” an offensive coordinator said. “Tom didn’t look very good. He looks frustrated. I think they are having a tough time meshing what Brady wants to do and what Bruce (Arians) has always done. Brady doesn’t always have good outlets, and Bruce might not be giving him good outlets because he wants to throw it up the field. It will be interesting how that plays out.”

“Tom is still a 1,” an exec said before the debacle against New Orleans. “His arm strength is still there to make all the throws. He can still beat you on the fade, on the post, on all those throws, where I don’t think Drew can and I don’t think Philip can. Drew can still beat you because he is at a different level mentally and their system, Sean (Payton) does a great job making sure he doesn’t have to beat you on those throws, quite frankly. The Colts don’t do that as much. They still expect Rivers to make some of those throws.”

Roethlisberger has returned from his elbow surgery to help the Steelers post an 8-0 record for the first time in their history.”He is throwing the ball well,” a former GM said. “I think he can handle the pure pass. He has another weapon with (Chase) Claypool. I think he is a guy that can still carry a team week to week.”

ROETHLISBERGER

The Steelers’ passing game has been controlled, not explosive. Roethlisberger ranks ahead of only Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold in percentage of passes gaining more than 15 yards. Nick Foles and Carson Wentz are the quarterbacks immediately ahead of him on that list. That’s unusual for Roethlisberger, who ranked eighth among 50 qualifying quarterbacks over the previous 10 seasons.”I know his physical skills have diminished,” a defensive coordinator said. “He is really calling a safer game. Their offense has changed a little bit. But he’s still a guy if you go into a game and you don’t account for him, you got problems.”

WENTZ

“I had him as a 3, so I don’t change my evaluation,” a former GM said. “They are not able to run the ball. He’s a guy that needs a heavy run-oriented offense and not built around him. He is not going to carry the team. I think he’s being forced to carry the team more than he should, and when you put him in those situations, in my opinion, he’s going to fail. That is just how I’ve always viewed him, as not a guy you can put back in the gun and have him throw it around 40-50 times a game and expect to win.”

RIVERS

 “If he doesn’t throw it on time, he can’t throw the ball down the field,” a defensive coach said. “He can’t see it, regroup and say, ‘Let me throw it downfield.’ He still gets them in the right plays. That’s his value.”

Another coach suggested the Colts should use play-action more frequently and do other things to help Rivers at this stage of his career. Rivers has used play-action on about 20 percent of his plays on early downs, one of the lower figures in the league.

“It’s a lot of drop-back stuff and I don’t understand that,” this coach said. “Regardless of that, Rivers hasn’t looked great.”

Rivers plummeted from Tier 1 in the 2019 QB Tiers survey to the final spot in the second tier heading into 2020.

“I think he’s pretty much done,” an exec said. “Shit, Jacksonville beat them and they are terrible. Week 1, when he should have looked at least fresh — his arm — he can’t make the throws. He’s gotta get his whole body into it. I mean, he’s just hanging on.”

Tier 3 Revisited

A Tier 3 quarterback is a legitimate starter but needs a heavier running game and/or defensive component to win. A lower-volume dropback passing offense suits him best.

14 Kyler Murray

15 Kirk Cousins

16 Jared Goff

17 Jimmy Garoppolo

18 Ryan Tannehill

19 Cam Newton

20 Derek Carr

21 Baker Mayfield

22 Josh Allen

23 Teddy Bridgewater

24 Sam Darnold

25 Daniel Jones

26 Nick Foles

There were more quarterbacks in the third tier (13) than any other. Kyler Murray, Ryan Tannehill, Derek Carr and Josh Allen all lead teams with winning records, top-10 offenses in EPA per game and defenses ranked between 14th and 30th. That makes them candidates for reassessment to see whether they are driving success in a manner warranting second-tier status. Jimmy Garoppolo, Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones are candidates for reassessment in the other direction. We will focus on those quarterbacks below, while noting that perceptions around the others in this tier remain about the same, with credit to Teddy Bridgewater for solidifying his projection as a solid starter.

MURRAY

Kyler Murray made his QB Tiers debut atop the third tier, an optimistic assessment after just one season as a starter. He’s got a chance to climb into the second tier based on what coaches and evaluators have seen so far, despite some concerns about consistency.

“I don’t know what his numbers are, but every time I look on the tape, he’s making some huge play,” an offensive coach said. “Sometimes it’s for the other team, but goodness gracious, that guy is a baller. I think he is a 2, hands down, and the sky is the limit. I think he can be better than Lamar because I think he’s a true passer and he can run similarly, so there is even more upside to Kyler than Lamar as an all-around quarterback.”

TANNNEHILL

Based on his production, Ryan Tannehill might threaten the second tier if a full round of voting were conducted this week. His numbers over his past 16 starts are impressive: 4,074 yards passing with 36 touchdowns, seven interceptions and a 114.6 passer rating. One coordinator who said he’d push Tannehill into the second tier said he also thought the longer Tannehill played, the more likely there would be some regression.

“He proved at Miami that he couldn’t carry his team, although I do think he’s better this year handling the pure pass stuff in doses,” an evaluator said. “I would probably push him to Tier 2 with his maturation in that system.”

The numbers do not fool anyone into thinking the Tennessee Titans are running their offense through the quarterback, but one evaluator said he’d place Tannehill above Rivers and Matt Ryan.

“Put him at the top of the 3s,” an offensive coach said. “When I watch him play, there are plays he should make. There is not a lot of pressure on him. He makes some plays, but it’s not like he’s some of these other guys where everything relies on him. He is a more physically talented version of Jared Goff in a more conservative offense. And I’ve got Goff as a 3, even though he produces like a 2 because of the system. The offense keeps them from being in bad situations.”

CARR

The basic evaluation of Derek Carr has not changed in recent seasons. He’s been seen as a talented player who wilts under the threat of pressure, especially if a defense can get some hits on him. That is proving to be a nearly impossible reputation for him to shake, despite efficient numbers and relative team success, including a 40-32 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs in an Arrowhead Stadium that had some fans inside, despite the pandemic.

“He is probably playing more like a 2,” a defensive coach said. “The thing I got from playing against him was, he is in year three of (Jon) Gruden’s offense, so you can see him operate. Dak Prescott made a similar jump. He showed he can solve things at the line of scrimmage, getting them in the right plays. I feel like Carr is doing the same thing, but if you can get to Carr, he’s not the same guy.”

Nearly every Carr assessment includes a similar qualifier. A quarterbacks coach said the Raiders are doing what the Rams and Titans are doing for their quarterbacks, keeping them out of difficult situations.

“Carr is a tease,” an exec said. “If they can run the ball well and he’s got time to throw, that is one thing. But if he has to sit back there and they know he’s back there, he doesn’t want any part of that. His best friend is them being ahead and them running the ball.”

ALLEN

Buffalo’s Josh Allen was the second-largest riser in QB Tiers voting from 2019 to 2020, behind only Jackson. He would rise further based on his performance this season, even though concerns over his decision making persist.

“Early on in his career and in college, the talent was always there, but you just didn’t know if it was going to translate to productivity,” an evaluator said. “Early in this season, it showed that his talent can translate to productivity and success, just not consistently.”

Instead of leaning on a running game the way teams such as Tennessee have done, the Bills rank among the league leaders in pass frequency by several measures. Allen ranks ninth in percentage of early down passes using play-action at 31 percent, tossing 13 touchdown passes with three interceptions in those quarterback-friendly situations.

“I think he’s a high 2,” an offensive coach said. “He came back from a deficit against the Rams and made some incredible throws. He’s won a couple games because of his grit, because of his ability to run. He has grown up a little bit, he has been smarter with the ball at times, and he’s a competitive sucker and he’s been productive.”

Allen lit up the Seahawks’ struggling defense for 415 yards in Week 9. That ended a four-game stretch in which Allen had four touchdown passes and four interceptions while averaging 6.6 yards per attempt with a 79.2 passer rating.

“If you talked to me after Week 4, I may have updated my assessment,” an exec who placed Allen in the third tier before the season said. “I think he’s streaky, boom or bust. If you catch him on one of his good days, he is going to score some points on you, but he also needs a lot of help from his receivers. Remember some of those plays in that Rams game? Guys were going up and getting balls that were total prayers. That is not a way to win consistently.”

Allen’s interception rate (1.6 percent) is below the league average. His turnover rate (2.3 percent) is a tick below the league average. Nineteen passing touchdowns and five rushing touchdowns give him nearly as many through eight games as Allen scored all last season (29 total).

Tier 4 Revisited

A Tier 4 quarterback could be an unproven player with some upside or a veteran who is ultimately best suited as a backup.

27 Marcus Mariota

28 Ryan Fitzpatrick

29 Tyrod Taylor

30 Drew Lock

31 Gardner Minshew

32 Mitch Trubisky

33 Dwayne Haskins

34 Jarrett Stidham

35 Kyle Allen

None of the quarterbacks in the fourth tier has started every game for his team. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mitch Trubisky and Dwayne Haskins were benched. Tyrod Taylor missed time recuperating from a punctured lung suffered during a pain injection gone wrong. Rookie replacement Justin Herbert took over and took the job. Kyle Allen’s season-ending injury left Washington with Haskins and veteran Alex Smith. Washington chose Smith, who was not in the 2020 QB Tiers survey. That leaves Denver’s Drew Lock and Jacksonville’s Gardner Minshew as potential quarterbacks of note from the fourth tier. Circumstances surrounding those young QBs haven’t changed sufficiently for a reassessment.

PLAYOFF CHANCES

From The 538, after last night’s Colts win.  We put the top 14 of each category in green

                                   Playoffs   Win SB

Chiefs         8-1           >99%        24%

Steelers      8-0            >99%       15%

Saints         6-2               96%       14%

Ravens       6-2               95%        7%

Packers      6-2               96%        9%

Seahawks  6-2                92%        8%

Bills             7-2               93%        5%

Buccaneers 6-3              80%        4%

Colts            6-3               75%        3%

Rams           5-3              63%        2%

Cardinals     5-3               63%        2%

Raiders        5-3              61%        1%

49ers            4-5              17%      <1%

Titans            6-3              63%       1%

Browns          5-3              55%      <1%

Bears            5-4              57%        1%

Vikings          3-5              24%      <1%

Falcons         3-6                2%      <1%

Patriots          3-5              11%      <1%

Dolphins        5-3              36%      <1%

Broncos         3-5               6%      <1%

Eagles           3-4-1           71%      <1%

Chargers        2-6               1%      <1%

Texans           2-6               3%     <1%

Panthers        3-6               3%     <1%

Bengals         2-5-1             1%     <1%

Washington   2-6              17%    <1%

Lions              3-5               6%    <1%

Giants             2-7              7%     <1%

Cowboys         2-7              6%     <1%

Jaguars           1-7            <1%    <1%

Jets                 0-9            <1%    <1%

Of the non-NFC East teams, the Vikings are 24% have the best chance of the 3-win teams by The538 algorithm, four times the chances of the also 3-5 Lions and Broncos.

YOUNG COACHES ON THE RISE

Tom Pelissaro of NFL.com with some names to watch:

Who is this year’s Sean McVay — the young, up-and-coming coach who may get an NFL head job sooner than later?

This is the fourth year I’ve asked the question, and three names from this list have been hired in each of the previous three cycles: Matt Nagy, Matt Patricia and Mike Vrabel in 2018; Brian Flores, Matt LaFleur and Zac Taylor in 2019; and Joe Judge, Matt Rhule and Kevin Stefanski in 2020.

Looking at those names, there are some big-time hits and some hires that may end up as misses. This list isn’t intended to suggest all the best candidates are younger first-timers; the likes of Dennis Allen, Eric Bieniemy, Todd Bowles, Jim Caldwell, Brian Daboll, Matt Eberflus, Leslie Frazier, Marvin Lewis, Don “Wink” Martindale, Josh McDaniels, Raheem Morris, Greg Roman, Brian Schottenheimer and Steve Spagnuolo, among others, could all be in the mix come January, even though they don’t meet the criteria here.

But with roughly half of all jobs continuing to be filled from this demographic — under age 45, getting their first NFL head-coaching opportunity — it remains a valuable exercise to identify some less-familiar names that you could hear a lot in the months to come.

Here’s a short list, based on dozens of recent conversations with NFL executives, coaches, players and others close to the search process:

New faces for this year’s list

Titans OC Arthur Smith: There’s a lot of intrigue around the league about Smith, 38, who has gone from relatively unknown tight ends coach to hot head-coaching name in less than two years. His work with Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry and Tennessee’s offense has impressed. For a guy who grew up with money — his father is billionaire Fred Smith, who founded FedEx — Arthur Smith has a blue-collar reputation: humble, hard-working, beloved by players. He paid his dues, spending a decade as a graduate assistant, intern, quality control coach and assistant position coach. If the Titans finish strong, Smith is positioned to be one of the most coveted candidates in January.

Buccaneers OC Byron Leftwich: The 10-year NFL veteran quarterback was once a backup in Pittsburgh under Bruce Arians, who hired Leftwich as QB coach in Arizona in 2017 and brought him along to Tampa last year. Leftwich, 40, had an uninspiring stint as the interim OC for a doomed Cardinals team two years ago under Arians’ successor, Steve Wilks. But Arians trusted Leftwich enough to make him the play-caller with the Bucs. Leftwich has shown he can manage a room with veterans such as Carson Palmer and Tom Brady, who’s more than two years older than his OC and made a point on Wednesday to tweet that he loves Leftwich. Last week’s blowout loss to the Saints notwithstanding, it’d be a surprise if Leftwich doesn’t have interview requests this cycle.

Clemson OC Tony Elliott: The Panthers did a lot of research last year on Elliott, 40, who declined a formal interview for their head-coaching job. A former Clemson receiver who initially pursued a career in industrial engineering, Elliott is very analytical and cautious. He isn’t going to jump at a job if he doesn’t feel he’s ready. But he has great command of the room, is dynamic and would impress in an interview. He’s innovative on offense, too. He has coached at one of the most successful college programs of the past decade, winning two national titles. Elliott has no NFL experience as a player or coach, but Kliff Kingsbury’s success running a wide-open offense in Arizona after making the jump from college to the pros makes Elliott’s background that much more intriguing. Pairing Elliott with an experienced former head coach could help bridge the gap while he grows into the job.

Giants assistant head coach/DC Patrick Graham: After one season as the Dolphins’ DC, Graham got permission from close friend Brian Flores to take a bigger title and reunite with fellow former Patriots assistant Joe Judge. Graham, 41, has impressed people around the league with how hard and well his Giants defense is playing without a lot of talent. Graham played defensive line at Yale and is now in his 19th year coaching, the past 12 in the NFL (including a Super Bowl XLIX win with New England). He’s passionate, has high expectations and can be hard on players in a way that makes them love him more.

Rams DC Brandon Staley: A former assistant at football coach factory John Carroll University, Staley taught himself Vic Fangio’s defensive scheme years before Fangio gave Staley, now 37, his first NFL job as outside linebackers coach with Chicago in 2017. Staley is thoughtful, detailed and completely obsessed with football. People who have worked with Staley say he’s going to be a head coach — it’s just a matter of readiness. This is still really Staley’s first year in front of the room. But he has the tools.

Panthers OC Joe Brady: At 31, Brady would be one of the youngest NFL head coaches of all time. Four years ago, he was a graduate assistant at Penn State. But Brady’s rise since then — two years as an offensive assistant with Sean Payton’s high-powered Saints, one year helping run the LSU offense that turned Joe Burrow into the No. 1 pick and now as Matt Rhule’s OC in Carolina — means some owner is bound to be intrigued about at least interviewing him. Nobody really questions Brady’s brilliance as an offensive mind. He’s a natural play-caller. He’s humble and engaging. He just hasn’t had a lot of time to absorb all the other responsibilities in management, personnel, etc., that would go into running his own show. This is another guy who could use some help from a former HC while Brady and his program grow together.

Returning from last year’s list

49ers DC Robert Saleh: One year after San Francisco’s Super Bowl run, injuries have decimated the roster, including Saleh’s defense — yet the 49ers are still ranked among the top 10 in many key categories, including yards allowed, points allowed and red zone defense. Saleh, 41, made a great impression in his interview with the Browns last year. He’s analytical, evidence-based and knows exactly what he believes philosophically. He has a plan for the offense and the people needed to make it work. He figures to be one of the most requested interviews in this cycle.

Saints assistant head coach/TEs Dan Campbell: A 10-year NFL veteran as a player who had a memorable stint as the Dolphins’ interim coach (5-7 in 2015), Campbell has strong leadership traits. He’s also heavily involved in the Saints’ run game, has a hand in overall game-planning and addresses the offense each week. An incredible stat confirmed by NFL Research: In 15 years as one of football’s most successful coaches, Sean Payton has never lost an assistant coach directly to an NFL head-coaching job. With the Saints flying high again at 6-2, there are multiple candidates on staff to potentially break that streak, including defensive coordinator Dennis Allen and Campbell, 44, who has interviewed for four head-coaching jobs in the past.

Iowa State coach Matt Campbell: Before the Jets hired Adam Gase two years ago, they reached out to Campbell, 40, who declined the interview. But people who know Campbell say he’s intrigued by the NFL. He’s known as a culture builder with a good mind for offense and an innate ability to relate to anyone.

Oklahoma coach Lincoln Riley: Riley, 37, is an offensive guru who has coached two Heisman Trophy winners (Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray), both taken No. 1 overall in the NFL draft. He has one of the best gigs in college football and likes where he is.

Colts OC Nick Sirianni: Sirianni, 39, has good presence, knows offense and holds players accountable. He’s not even the hottest name on the Indianapolis staff at the moment — that’s defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus — but Sirianni has an excellent reputation across the league. He turned down an interview with the Browns two years ago, feeling he needed to focus solely on the Colts’ Divisional Round game, but is ready to interview going forward.

Patriots ILB coach Jerod Mayo: Mayo, 34, has all of one and a half seasons of NFL coaching experience. But he spent eight years playing for Bill Belichick, relaying the defensive signals for most of that time, and is a born leader. The Patriots don’t have a defensive coordinator, so Mayo is among those making calls this season. Fellow former Patriots linebacker Mike Vrabel only was a defensive coordinator for one season before landing the head-coaching job in Tennessee … which has worked out pretty well for the Titans.

Others to watch in coming years

Broncos WR coach Zach Azzanni, 44

Rams RB coach Thomas Brown, 34

Eagles run game coordinator/DL coach Matt Burke, 44

Patriots TE/FB coach Nick Caley, 37

Bengals OC Brian Callahan, 36

Lions RB coach Kyle Caskey, 41

Lions special teams coordinator Brayden Coombs, 34

Bears QB coach John DeFilippo, 42

Bears safeties coach Sean Desai, 37

Titans TE coach Todd Downing, 40

Rams safeties coach Ejiro Evero, 39

Buccaneers OLB coach Larry Foote, 40

Michigan OC Josh Gattis, 36

Packers QB coach Luke Getsy, 36

Dolphins WR coach Josh Grizzard, 30

Packers OC Nathaniel Hackett, 40

49ers STC Richard Hightower, 40

Alabama associate head coach/RBs coach Charles Huff, 37

Chiefs QB coach Mike Kafka, 33

Texans OC Tim Kelly, 34

49ers run game coordinator Mike McDaniel, 37

Cowboys OC Kellen Moore, 32

Rams OC Kevin O’Connell, 35

Browns TE coach Drew Petzing, 33

Bengals QB coach Dan Pitcher, 33

Rams CB coach Aubrey Pleasant, 34

Cardinals WR coach David Raih, 40

Iowa State WR coach Nate Scheelhaase, 30

Chargers OC Shane Steichen, 35

Eagles pass game coordinator/QB coach Press Taylor, 32

Washington Football Team OC Scott Turner, 38

Colts STC Bubba Ventrone, 38

Rams pass game coordinator Shane Waldron, 41

Missouri DC/safeties coach Ryan Walters, 34

Texans DC Anthony Weaver, 40