| NFC NORTH |
| MINNESOTAWR JUSTIN JEFFERSON seems to admit he’s become a bit adrift. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com: Three years ago today, Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson made the catch of his life in a f—kin’ nutty upset of the Bills. He used the anniversary of that unforgettable moment to commit to rediscovering the magic of 2022. Via Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com, Jefferson told reporters that he’s “trying to work back” to that level. Jefferson calls it “savage mode,” complete with an “F-it mentality.” “Just going out there and just killing it, and not worrying about the plays, not worrying about anything else,” Jefferson said. He was asked how and why he’s gotten away from that mindset. His short answer: “Life.” Here’s the longer explanation. “Just different things going on in my life and just wanting to get back to that kid phase of loving it,” Jefferson said. “I still love football, but overly loving football and overly loving just being out there on Sundays and making the big plays and just being a part of this great organization. So, just wanting to get back mentally into that mode.” It’s easy to overly love football when football is going well. It was in 2022. And it was in 2024. This year, the Vikings are 4-5 and teetering. They face critical games over the next two weekends against the Bears and Packers. Lose both, and it’s likely lights out on the 2025 season, the sixth of Jefferson’s carrer. Jefferson also addressed his apparent lack of effort to make a tackle after an interception on a deep ball thrown his way in Sunday’s loss to the Ravens. “I want to win,” Jefferson said. “I’m not really mad at the situation that I’m in or I’m not mad at the players that we have or the plays that’s being called. Of course, I’m mad after an interception. You want me to be happy and go chase them down? That’s not really something that I want to happen.” He wants wins to happen. Too often this year, the Vikings are not. “Of course, the outcome of the game is us losing, and I was the one that’s getting thrown that ball and it is getting picked off,” Jefferson said. “So, a lot of emotion goes towards that. But at the end of the day, I want to win, and I’m an ultra-competitor, and a lot of people that don’t play this game and don’t play sports don’t understand the competitive side of it. So yeah, I want to win, and emotionally, things get heated sometimes and things weren’t going our way at that moment. So, just wanting a better outcome. And of course, the offense that we have, I feel like we should be playing better than what we are.” So why aren’t they? If the Vikings knew how to quickly fix it, they would. The reality is that they opted not to keep guys like Sam Darnold (who’s team is 7-2) and Daniel Jones (who’s team is 8-2) in order to develop J.J. McCarthy. And there are growing pains, literally and figuratively. Jefferson nevertheless vouched for McCarthy on Thursday, calling him a “a great player,” “a great quarterback, and “a great kid.” All that may be true, but Jefferson is currently looking for someone who is and will be one thing and one thing only. A winner. On Sunday, McCarthy gets his fifth chance to prove that he’s on the right track to becoming that.. |
| NFC EAST |
| NEW YORK GIANTSDo the current odds on the next coach of the Giants reflect knowledge of the team’s thinking or is it just a random collection of names? Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com: In more than 17 seasons as coach of the Packers and Cowboys, Mike McCarthy has a record of 185-123-2. Since 2012, the Giants have a record of 83-147-1. It’s no surprise, then, that McCarthy is the early betting favorite to become the next head coach of the Giants, at 7-1. Interim Giants coach Mike Kafka is just behind McCarthy at 8-1, along with Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. Those three candidates crystallize the primary challenge the Giants will face in picking a new coach. They’ve failed with three first-time head coaches who had been coordinators. Along the way, they also failed with a former head coach, in Pat Shurmur. Do they try to find a rising star? Or will they want an established head coach? The other question is whether to hire someone with an offensive background, or someone with a defensive background. Given the presence of a potential franchise quarterback in Jackson Dart, it’s important to develop consistency in his coaching. If the Giants hire a defensive coach (Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is the favorite from that side of the ball, at 9-1) and if the offensive coordinator does well with Dart, the offensive coordinator likely will get a chance to become a head coach elsewhere. And then the Giants will need another tutor for Dart. Whoever it is, the next hire will be critical to getting the most out of Dart — and to reversing a trend of chronic failure since they won Super Bowl XLVI to cap the 2011 season. Since then, the Giants have been to the playoffs twice in 14 seasons, with only one postseason victory. They’ve got a young nucleus of talent. They need to get the most out of it. They need a coach who can do it, and who otherwise can navigate the realities of leading one of the two teams in the NFL’s biggest and most scrutinized market. |
| NFC SOUTH |
| NEW ORLEANSLongtime Saints GM Mickey Loomis has the support of the one person who counts. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com: The Saints reached their bye week with a 2-8 record and many teams in that situation face questions about whether they are going to make major changes to their coaching staff or front office. Kellen Moore is in his first year as the team’s head coach and Saints owner Gayle Benson shot down any notion of a change at the top of the personnel department. General Manager Mickey Loomis has been in that role since 2002 and Benson said that neither this year’s record nor the team’s recent lack of success has her thinking about a change. “It may not be what the fans want to hear, but as far as firing Mickey Loomis, that’s ridiculous,” Benson said, via Jeff Duncan of NOLA.com. “[He] does a great job. . . . When I am asked to hold Mickey Loomis accountable, I do. Not every decision works out, they never do. . . . I hold him in high esteem, and I am very pleased with what he has accomplished, acquired and is building.” Benson said that Loomis and the team were upfront about the Saints being in “a rebuilding mode” in 2025 and that things have played out that way. That switch will have to flip at some point, but it looks like Loomis will be around until it does. |
| TAMPA BAYThis: @M1K3EvansTDBucs at 6-3 while: -McMillan missed all 9 games (and counting) -Godwin, Kancey, and Mauch missed 7 games each (and counting) -Goedeke missed 6 games -Evans missed 5.5 games (and counting) -Bucky missed 5 games (and…?) -Wirfs missed 3 games is nothing short of amazing. |
| AFC NORTH |
| BALTIMOREQB LAMAR JACKSON’s knee problem should not keep him out of Sunday’s game against the Browns. Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com: Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson was a full participant in his return to practice Thursday, making a strong step toward starting Sunday on the road against the Cleveland Browns. Jackson, a two-time NFL Most Valuable Player, missed Wednesday’s practice because of knee soreness. But Jackson was back on the field a day later and moved well, practicing in full. “It’s getting better,” Jackson said after Thursday’s practice. At the start of Thursday’s practice, Jackson jogged onto the field without a limp. In between taking first-team snaps, Jackson ran from drill to drill. Jackson injured his knee during Sunday’s 27-19 road win against the Minnesota Vikings, who landed multiple blows on the quarterback. He was hit 11 times by the Vikings, including one that resulted in a roughing the passer penalty on pass rusher Dallas Turner. Asked if he expects defenses to blitz him more when teams know he’s dealing with an injury, Jackson replied, “That’s cool with me. We’re going to see.” |
| CLEVELANDBaseball’s Rockies have turned to someone whose title said they were responsible for the current state of the Browns. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com chases Paul DePodesta out the door: New Colorado Rockies president of baseball operations Paul DePodesta, who quite possibly walked away from Cleveland before they made him run, can’t run away from questions about the colossal failure that was the Deshaun Watson trade. DePodesta was asked about it in a recent interview with the Denver Post. His long answer boiled down to four words. “We all own that.” The topic came up again during his introductory press conference, with particularly pointed phrasing of the question: “How can you be assure [sic] that you won’t do something like that again here now in Colorado?” “I was also calling plays for the Browns,” DePodesta quipped. (It was a joke that quite possibly included a very real message.) “I’ve said this before,” he added, “I think whenever you have a significant player decision, whether it’s a trade, free-agent signing, number one draft pick, whatever it is, like, those are organizational decisions, right? Those are done collaboratively, like a lot of people on board. And if you’re a senior leader of that organization at that time, then you own that decision. I mean, you do. We all do. So that’s the way I feel about that, and it’s the way I feel about sort of almost all the decisions we made there in Cleveland. I absolutely, you know, own them all. “And, look, I’ve said this now for probably 25-plus years, like, I lost my no-hitter a long time ago. Like a long, long time ago. I’m not perfect, I haven’t been perfect. I won’t be perfect going forward. Like, we’re definitely gonna miss again. But hopefully we learn from that, and we learn from both the successes and the failures. And ,you know, we get better the next time we need to make a significant decision. And I do feel like I’ve been able to do that through the course of my career. I feel confident that I’m a lot better today than I was five years ago or 10 years ago or 20 years ago, and I hope five years from now, I’m a lot better than I am sitting here today.” But there’s a difference between not being perfect and being responsible — as the “chief strategy officer” — for the single worst transaction in NFL history. From the significant draft-pick compensation invested (good, relatively cheap players whose rights could have been held by the Browns for five years or longer) to the five-year, $230 million, fully-guaranteed contract for a player who didn’t play at all the prior season and who was facing a 10-game suspension for more than 20 civil lawsuits alleging misconduct during massage-therapy sessions, the question isn’t whether DePodesta has a brief moment of imperfection, but whether he had plunged into full-blown insanity. Despite his effort to spread the blame to others, he alone was the team’s “chief strategy officer.” And the strategy was to pursue Watson at a time when Baker Mayfield was still under contract. Once news emerged of the effort to acquire Watson, the Rubicon had been crossed with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draf. Then, after Watson made the Browns the first team to be eliminated from a four-way chase for his services, they got desperate. They threw money at the problem. Too much money. So much money that the Browns, who have kicked the salary-cap can for as long as they could, will be dealing with the aftermath of DePodesta’s “strategy” for years to come. Is it fair that he’ll never live it down? Yes, it is. It’s fair as it was for former Vikings G.M. Mike Lynn to never live down the horrendous Herschel Walker trade of 1989, who still gets criticized for the move more than 13 years after his life ended. |
| AFC EAST |
| NEW ENGLANDWith Thursday night’s home win over the Jets, the Patriots are the first team to nine wins. Who saw that coming in August? New England won eight games in the last two years, 34 games, combined. Now they have won 9 in 11. Steve Buckley of The Athletic sees the Patriots, led by Coach Mike Vrabel and QB DRAKE MAYE, hurtling back towards the top of the brand charts they enjoyed with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady: It’s just a matter of time before we see New England Patriots coach Mike Vrabel and quarterback Drake Maye teaming up to do one of those buddy TV commercials that are all the rage these days. You know, like “Scrubs” veterans Zach Braff and Donald Faison plugging T-Mobile Internet, or the Xfinity Multiview spot in which Vince Vaughn whips up his special pancakes and for Owen Wilson. Vrabel and Maye got a ton of nationally televised postgame exposure Thursday night, this after the Patriots emerged with a methodical, taking-care-of-business 27-14 victory over the New York Jets at Gillette Stadium. Sitting next to each other on the set, Vrabel did some calculating in his head and came up with this: “My younger son Carter’s the same age as Drake, and I’m thinking, my God, am I old. I’m 50 and it’s just so much fun because these guys are experiencing a lot of this for the first time. I forget that sometimes. I forget that the left side of our line is 21 and 22 years old, and our quarterback is 23, and I’m like, OK, there’s going to be a lot of firsts for this program.” New England won its NFL-leading eighth game in a row in a Thursday night rout of New York.This was after Vrabel did his customary postgame rah-rah session in which he interacts with every one of his players in the hallway leading to the New England locker room. And if I have the timeline correct, it was just before Maye used some of his own postgame airtime to answer a question about all those “MVP!” chants by pointing at Vrabel and saying, “Yeah, the coach here, and the guys around me …” Boilerplate? Well, yeah, some of it was. But what’s striking about all this is how quickly the Patriots have come from being a doormat to a franchise with a coach and a quarterback who are fast becoming … a brand. And it all seemed to crystallize on the Thursday Night Football postgame show, which must have been especially tough for Jets fans, given all the talk about Vrabel having talked with the Jets before winding up as New England’s head coach. It’s easy to turn some dials and pull some levers to create an alternate reality in which Vrabel was coaching the Jets Thursday night. Since it’s only make-pretend, we can recast the Jets as an organized, eyes-on-the-prize team, thanks to Vrabel, of course. Maybe it would have been the Jets coming in with the snazzy winning streak. Maybe it would have been the Patriots with just two wins and no hope. Yes, we can play that game, except there’s no make-pretend in which Maye is the Jets’ quarterback. In the end, that’s why Vrabel is coaching the Patriots. They had a quarterback on the rise. That’s it. Stop right there. Yes, Vrabel is a former Patriot who played on Super Bowl-winning teams, and he loves the fans, the history, the fall foliage and all the rest. But none of that was going to get Vrabel to New England if there was no quarterback. So well have Vrabel and Maye connected that it’s easy to forget New England is coming off back-to-back 4-13 seasons. But then the Jets pulled into Gillette Stadium to provide a living, breathing reminder of what it’s like to be not just a bad football team, but a bad program, everything always going wrong, the wheels always falling off. That’s where the Patriots might have been heading. Maye was here for the most recent 4-13 campaign, but he was a first-year question mark back then, not a second-year exclamation point. Plus, the coach last year was Jerod Mayo, not yet ready to be an NFL head coach. If at the end of last season, you were able to look at the Patriots and see a 9-2 team and “MVP!” chants for Maye if only they could get a new coach, good for you. Such fixes are generally not so easy. Give the sometimes-maligned Patriots owner Robert Kraft credit for firing Mayo after one season. To do so was a tacit confession by Kraft that he’d made a mistake when he hired Mayo in the first place. Let’s be honest: It’s the 21st century, and nobody admits to being wrong anymore. But Kraft did just that, and then hired Vrabel. And here we are. Not only are the 2025 Patriots 9-2, but in Vrabel and Maye, they all of a sudden have two of the most instantly recognizable people in the NFL. Think about that. And don’t the networks know it. Vrabel and Maye were kept on the national postgame show so long that linebacker Robert Spillane was the first Patriot to appear at the team’s standard postgame media availability. It’s usually the coach who goes first, followed by the quarterback. It might have just been a matter of time before the Patriots rolled out the Gillette Stadium head of concessions while Vrabel and Maye were getting their faces sunburned by those national spotlights. Imagine being a Jets fan having to watch all that. The Patriots have turned it around, whereas the Jets keep going around in circles. |
| NEW YORK JETSOur Pile On The Jets stat of the day @FDSportsbookTom Brady hasn’t played football since the 2022 season… He still has more wins than the Jets since 2020 Brady had 32 regular season wins, the Jets have 27 |
| THIS AND THAT |
| THOSE PESKY REPORT CARDSThe NFL is fighting the NFLPA’s annual Team Report Card – especially the owners who get bad grades. The NFL filed a grievance against the NFL Players Association, asking the union to stop its annual team report cards and saying the exercise violates the collective bargaining agreement by airing public criticism of teams, according to documents obtained by ESPN. The league claims the report cards, which poll players on various aspects of working conditions, violate a CBA clause that says NFL owners and the union must “use reasonable efforts to curtail public comments by club personnel or players which express criticism of any club, its coach, or its operation and policy,” according to an August letter from the league’s management council to NFLPA general counsel Tom DePaso that was obtained by ESPN. After months of discussions with the league after the letter, the NFLPA alerted its players of the grievance last week and said it’s “moving ahead with this year’s survey,” according to a union email obtained by ESPN. “We have responded to the grievance with our intention to fight against this action and continue what’s clearly become an effective tool for comparing workplace standards across the league and equipping you to make informed career decisions,” the NFLPA wrote in its email to players. Both a union spokesperson and an NFL spokesperson declined to comment. The union’s annual team report cards issue grades — from A to F — to franchises on everything from treatment of families to training staff. In the letter, the NFL’s management council, which handles labor issues for the league, argues the NFL and union already agree to conduct a joint survey of players “regarding the adequacy of player care and other relevant topics” every three years, per the CBA. The letter states that the company overseeing that survey has said the union’s report card exercise “adversely affected the reliability of the CBA-mandated survey.” A source with direct knowledge of the league’s process said that that survey was last conducted in 2015 and that officials from the league and union would meet confidentially with teams about specific areas of improvement, with tangible results. The letter states that the NFL twice has asked the union to suspend its report card survey — once in 2024 and a second time in June of this year — and that the NFLPA declined. Sources with direct knowledge of the grievance told ESPN that the league is trying to have the issue heard by an arbitrator in December, with a hope of a decision by February 2026. The union’s email to players cited data that teams had improved working conditions based on the survey. It stated that nine teams improved their family services score — which includes childcare services and stadium family rooms — by two or more grades. It also stated that 12 teams improved two or more grades in travel scores. Team owners and executives told ESPN that the topic of the report cards arose at a recent owners meeting, during a discussion over what management would like to change in future CBAs. Ownership sources told ESPN that they value the report cards but feel that, because the union issues only general grades and not specific feedback, they serve as an instrument to mock teams without telling them which areas need improvement. “It could make you better,” a team executive told ESPN, “but they don’t share how. They just take snippets to embarrass people without sharing the data.” In 2025, 1,695 players leaguewide responded to the surveys. The Minnesota Vikings and Miami Dolphins earned the highest marks for workplace environment, with Zygi Wilf of the Vikings, Stephen Ross of the Dolphins and Arthur Blank of the Atlanta Falcons receiving A-plus grades. At the NFL league meeting in March, New York Jets chairman Woody Johnson — who along with Art Rooney of the Pittsburgh Steelers, Robert Kraft of the New England Patriots, Michael Bidwill of the Arizona Cardinals and David Tepper of the Carolina Panthers received ownership grades of D or worse — called the survey “totally bogus” and hinted that it violated the CBA. Johnson said he took issue with “how they collected the information [and] who they collected it from. [It] was supposed to be according to the agreement we have with the league. It’s supposed to be a process [where] we have representatives and they have representatives, so we know that it’s an honest survey. “And that was violated, in my opinion. I’m going to leave it at that, but I think there are a lot of owners that looked at that survey and said this is not fair, it’s not balanced, it’s not every player, it’s not even representative of the players.” One owner told ESPN that “the only owners who don’t care for [the report cards] are the ones who get the subpar grades.” |
| BUNNY BUSINESSCharlotte Jones, daughter of Jerry and part owner of the Cowboys, says the selection of Bad Bunny to perform at the Super Bowl halftime show was “not about politics” and celebrates “immigration” – albeit Mr. Bunny did not immigrate, having been born a U.S. citizen. Denny Alfonso of The Athletic: When three-time Grammy Award winner Bad Bunny was announced as the headliner for the next Super Bowl LX halftime show, the public’s reaction was fast and divided. Charlotte Jones, co-owner and chief brand officer of the Dallas Cowboys, is among those who thinks it was the right call. On an episode of “The Katie Miller Podcast” released Tuesday, Jones defended the league’s choice and spoke on football’s evolving fan base and the culture surrounding the sport. “I think our Latina fan base is amazing, and I think when you think about the Super Bowl, you want the No. 1 performer in the world to be there,” said Jones, who is the daughter of Cowboys owner, president, and general manager Jerry Jones. “Our whole society is based on immigrants that have come here and have founded our country, and I think we can celebrate that.” The NFL’s decision to name Bad Bunny the Super Bowl halftime performer drew the ire of conservative commentators and President Donald Trump. The Puerto Rican artist has been critical of Trump’s immigration policies and chose not to tour in the U.S. this year out of concern that Immigration and Customs Enforcement would raid the concert venues. When Miller asked Jones whether the league would prefer a performer who avoids political topics altogether, she was direct. “I don’t think our game is about politics,” she said. “I don’t think people tune in to look at politics. We do everything we can to avoid politics. People will be watching the game, they’ll be celebrating music, and nobody will be thinking what comments on the left side, what comments on the right side … this is about bringing people together.” Bunny was recently honored as the top Latin Artist of the 21st Century by Billboard. |
| 2026 DRAFTWho is going to get the #1 pick? Various ESPN folk weight in on the top five: The race for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL draft is taking shape after 10 weeks of the 2025 season. Five teams have at least a 5% chance at landing the top pick, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) projections. So we called on our NFL reporters and analysts to size up each of those bottom-tier franchises after midseason. Seth Walder used FPI to make sense of each of the five teams’ schedules the rest of the way. Dan Graziano answered how the No. 1 pick could impact each team’s current QB room. Our NFL Nation reporters looked at the biggest positional needs that could be addressed in the first round in April. Matt Miller spun it forward and suggested one prospect each front office could consider if it landed that top selection. And finally, Ben Solak rated each team’s “excitement factor” on a 1-10 scale (with 10 being the most excited) if they picked No. 1 overall. Let’s start with the Titans, who currently have the best odds at the first overall pick. Tennessee Titans (1-8)FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 36.6%FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 87.3% What lies ahead in the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining games?It will get easier, though I suppose that might not be a good thing for Tennessee now. After having played the hardest schedule in the NFL to this point, the Titans have the 18th-hardest slate remaining, per the FPI. The Titans aren’t favored in any games, but there are two contests very close to a coin flip: at the Browns in Week 14 and versus the Saints in Week 17. Other than that, the Titans are at least 6-point underdogs in every game. — Walder What would landing the No. 1 pick mean for quarterback Cam Ward?Help! Having the No. 1 pick and not needing a quarterback is a fantastic position for a team to be in. The Titans could either use the pick on the best non-quarterback in the draft, which would improve the team around Ward for the future, or they could trade it for a haul of picks to a QB-needy team and use the added draft capital to continue building around Ward. — Graziano What is their biggest need right now?Edge rusher. Defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson deserves credit for how he has manufactured a pass rush with so few true impact players. Still, Tennessee’s 22 sacks this season rank 22nd in the league. Outside of Jeffery Simmons, there is no defensive player who poses a significant threat to opposing offenses. The Titans don’t have a single player on the roster who has logged a double-digit sack season. Adding a game changer to come off the edge and make big plays when it matters the most would help the defense immensely. The last edge rusher drafted by Tennessee in the first round was Derrick Morgan, who was selected 16th in 2010. — Turron Davenport Who is the best prospect fit right now for them at No. 1?Miami defensive end Rueben Bain Jr. might not solve the team’s issues on offense, but he does bring a three-down ability as a true edge defender who can rush the passer and stop the run. Tennessee has to find someone who threatens opposing offenses. Bain’s ability to win with powerful hands and closing speed would fit in any scheme that the Titans’ new head coach and defensive coordinator want to run. In a draft that is light on elite offensive skill players, Bain is where value meets need. — Miller How would you rate the excitement factor of Tennessee landing the top pick on a scale of 1-10?A sneaky 6. While the Titans would certainly not take a quarterback, I think the top of this QB class is strong enough that we could see a substantial trade up for the No. 1 pick, especially if the Browns or Jets are at No. 2. A trade up to the top pick is entertainment in the moment, as rumors swirl and hypothetical packages are considered, and entertainment for years to come, as the trade is eternally reexamined. — Solak Cleveland Browns (2-7)FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 26.9%FPI chance to earn top five pick: 82.6% What lies ahead in the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining games?They’re favored by FPI in one game (vs. Titans in Week 14) and head to Las Vegas in Week 12, which could be a possible victory. FPI makes the Browns at least a 7-point underdog in all of their other remaining contests, however. The Browns do play five of their final eight games at home, so their slate is a shade easier than it seems just looking at their opponents. What would landing the No. 1 pick mean for quarterbacks Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders?Probably the end of the road in terms of their chances to be the Browns’ long-term starter. Unless one of those guys makes it clear over the second half of this season that he can be the franchise QB, the Browns would almost certainly use the No. 1 pick on a QB they believe could be just that. Maybe one of them would stick around as a backup? Or start while the rookie gets up to speed? But that would be about it. — Graziano What is their biggest need right now?Quarterback. The Browns have already cycled through two quarterbacks and appear likely to go to a third in Sanders at some point. The infrastructure around the quarterbacks hasn’t been solid, but Cleveland hasn’t gotten enough production at the position to dissuade the franchise from targeting a passer in the first round. Browns QBs have registered a 29.1 Total QBR this season, which ranks only above the Titans. — Daniel Oyefusi Who is the best prospect fit right now for them at No. 1?Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza has emerged as the top senior quarterback thanks to his accuracy, timing and poise in the pocket. He isn’t a true dual threat, but he has picked up five scores on the ground and keeps defenses on their toes with his mobility. At 6-foot-5 and 225 pounds, he has the frame and arm talent to stand in the pocket and deliver the ball downfield. His 26-to-5 ratio in touchdowns to interceptions also shows a quarterback willing to take chances while limiting turnovers. Alabama’s Ty Simpson and Oregon’s Dante Moore are options to keep an eye on, but both are first-year starters in an era where NFL scouts like to see at least 25 starts from incoming prospects. That leaves Mendoza as the clear-cut option. — Miller How would you rate the excitement factor of Cleveland landing the top pick on a scale of 1-10?Tell me again why I should be excited about another Browns pick for a quarterback? Cleveland is a good candidate to quickly leap in relevance with a strong rookie passer, as that defense is ready to shred (and has been for years). But I’ve done one too many cycles of “this guy is the guy!” in Cleveland to be enthused about doing it again. If I’m that jaded, imagine how Browns fans feel. — Solak New York Jets (2-7)FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 13.3%FPI chance to earn top five pick: 69.2% What lies ahead in the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining games?They aren’t favored by FPI in any games, but there are several where the Jets could stumble into a win: versus the Falcons in Week 13, versus the Dolphins in Week 14 and at the Saints in Week 16. The wild card is Week 18 in Buffalo. Normally that would be one of the most likely losses of the season, but it’s possible the Bills could be locked in to their playoff seeding and rest their starters. If that’s the case, the Jets could stumble into another win and hurt their draft capital. — Walder What would landing the No. 1 pick mean for quarterback Justin Fields?I’m not sure Fields is long for New York regardless of whether the Jets take a QB in the draft. But if they end up with the No. 1 pick — and assuming Fields’ performance doesn’t do a complete 180 in the final eight weeks of the season — I have to believe they’d use it to draft his replacement. Fields wouldn’t walk away empty-handed, though, as $10 million of his $20 million 2026 salary is fully guaranteed. — Graziano What is their biggest need right now?Quarterback, quarterback and quarterback. Did we mention they need a quarterback? Fields is under contract for 2026, but he looks like a lame duck. The Jets have five first-round picks over the 2026 and 2027 drafts, so they should be able to target a player and go get him. Perhaps it will be a veteran. If they decide to wait until the 2027 draft to address the position, the top needs right now are wide receiver and defensive tackle. — Rich Cimini Who is the best prospect fit right now for them at No. 1?Mendoza remains the top quarterback, and like the Browns, the Jets will be vying for position to secure QB1. Coach Aaron Glenn wants a QB with mobility, which is why the team went all-in on Fields, and Dante Moore might be a better scheme fit than Mendoza. Moore’s ability to throw on the move and his overall athletic traits are at a higher level than Mendoza’s. The biggest question will be his limited starts in college, with five at UCLA in 2023 before this season. Mendoza probably gets the nod based on experience level, as the Jets need a quarterback who can play right away. — Miller How would you rate the excitement factor of New York landing the top pick on a scale of 1-10?4. The Jets will probably do the smart but boring thing next offseason: Commit to a veteran quarterback by mid-March. There goes the drama. There is a non-zero chance, given how long-term the Jets’ rebuild seems to be, that they are willing to both take a quarterback with the pick or trade the pick away for a competitive offer. That does give this hypothetical an additional layer of fun. — Solak New Orleans Saints (2-8)FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 9.7%FPI chance to earn top five pick: 63.3% What lies ahead in the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining games?The bad (?) news is the Saints have the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL. That features two games in which FPI makes them narrow favorites — versus the Jets in Week 16 and at Titans in Week 17 — but it doesn’t end there. Pretty much every single game for the Saints outside of their Week 14 contest at the Buccaneers could be a feasible victory. — Walder What would landing the No. 1 pick mean for quarterbacks Tyler Shough and Spencer Rattler?I think a lot of that depends on what Shough shows them over the rest of the season. He was the No. 40 pick this year, which is pretty high and doesn’t rule out the possibility that he could be their long-term answer. So if Shough finishes the season strong and convinces the Saints to stick with him, they could use the No. 1 pick to build around him by making the pick or trading it for more assets. And if he struggles, they could certainly use it to select his replacement and keep Shough or Rattler around as the backup. — Graziano What is their biggest need right now?Wide receiver. Amid their evaluation of Shough, the Saints have needs at every position. Wide receiver is near the top of that list, as the Saints just traded Rashid Shaheed to the Seahawks. While Chris Olave says the Saints have approached him about an extension, getting a top wideout, whether or not he is there beyond 2026, will be vital to reviving a struggling offense. — Katherine Terrell Who is the best prospect fit right now for them at No. 1?Wide receiver is absolutely the biggest need, but the best pass catcher in this class hasn’t risen to No. 1 pick status. Arizona State’s Jordyn Tyson is a top-10 prospect, but he lacks the elite measurables to buck the trend of receivers not being drafted No. 1 overall — Keyshawn Johnson was the last No. 1 pick at WR in 1996. With that option off the table, the Saints would most likely look at the defense if they stick with Shough. Ohio State hybrid defender Arvell Reese would spark a defense that still misses Trey Hendrickson. Reese can play both stack linebacker and off the edge as a pass rusher. Some scouts I’ve talked to already consider Reese the top player in the class, seeing upside similar to when Micah Parsons was a prospect. — Miller How would you rate the excitement factor of New Orleans landing the top pick on a scale of 1-10?A healthy 7. Shough played the best game of his very young career Sunday and repeat performances would likely secure him the job for 2026. But he was a second-round pick at quarterback, and such selections rarely stave off a first overall option. Depending on how the season runs out, the Saints could trade the pick away (fun) or keep the pick while looking to move Shough and Rattler (also fun). — Solak Las Vegas Raiders (2-7)FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 7.0%FPI chance to earn top five pick: 54.1% What lies ahead in the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining games?The Raiders are favored only versus the Browns in Week 12, but they have a couple of other games that they could potentially win. Specifically, two home matchups against the Cowboys (next Monday) and Giants (Week 17). One question will be if the Chiefs are in a position to rest their starters in Week 18. If they are, that could set up an easy matchup in the final week of the season. — Walder What would landing the No. 1 pick mean for quarterback Geno Smith?Probably the end of his time in Las Vegas. If the Raiders get the No. 1 pick, that almost certainly means Smith won’t have turned his season around and the Raiders could be looking at a lot of changes, including at quarterback. Smith does have $18.5 million in guaranteed salary coming in 2026 no matter what, and another $8 million becomes fully guaranteed if he’s still on the roster on the third day of the league year next March. But because of the way the Raiders handle bonus structure in their veteran contracts, that $18.5 million is all the dead money they’d have to carry on their 2026 salary cap for Smith if they cut him before the third day of the league year. — Graziano What is their biggest need right now?Defensive end. The Raiders need a succession plan for Smith. However, the Raiders are unable to take one of the top quarterbacks in this class, they need to address the defensive line. Las Vegas’ pass rush has been among its deficiencies in 2025. The Raiders are 25th in sacks (18) and 30th in pressure rate (27%). Maxx Crosby has been solid this season, but he needs help. — Ryan McFadden Who is the best prospect fit right now for them at No. 1?Here’s another team where Reese is a dream fit. The Raiders have struggled to find Crosby a good running mate in previous drafts and free agency, but Reese’s speed and power would match the relentlessness that Crosby plays with. Teams have to plan around winning their division, and it makes sense to build a defense that can attack the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes, the Chargers’ Justin Herbert and the Broncos’ Bo Nix. Yes, quarterback is a clear and obvious need, but Ryan is right that the defense has to be built in order for the Raiders to win. — Miller How would you rate the excitement factor of Las Vegas landing the top pick on a scale of 1-10?5. Given how sharply Smith’s play has tailed off this season, the Raiders must make a future quarterback investment. But given coach Pete Carroll’s history of winning with defense and developing Day 2 quarterbacks (like Smith, as well as Russell Wilson), I could see the Raiders staying here and making the hero call on a defensive player. They’d certainly be the hardest team to figure out if they get the top pick. — Solak |
| QB CATEGORIESMike Sando of The Athletic sorts the NFL’s 33 QBs (the 49ers have two) into categories: I’ve included contract duration and average per-year salary rank (via Over the Cap), along with where each quarterback ranks in expected points added per pass play (via TruMedia) among the 40 with at least 70 pass attempts this season. We have a top-five QB signed long term Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City ChiefsSigned through: 2031 | APY rank: T14 | EPA rank: 8The Chiefs have reached the AFC title game all seven seasons Mahomes has been their starter, winning three of the five Super Bowls they have reached. Mahomes’ production is up this season over last. He is throwing the ball farther down the field and using his legs more frequently (36 scrambles, a career high through nine games). Josh Allen, Buffalo BillsSigned through: 2030 | APY rank: T2 | EPA rank: 5The reigning MVP is producing about the same as he has in recent seasons. Even the Bills’ record (6-3) is the norm for Buffalo, which has been better than that twice in seven full seasons with Allen in the lineup. He has 69 more total touchdowns than turnovers over the past three seasons, the largest gap in the league. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore RavensSigned through: 2027 | APY rank: 10 | EPA rank: 7The two-time MVP leads the league in passer rating (127.1), completing 70 percent of his attempts with 15 touchdowns and one interception. He has 80 touchdown passes with 12 interceptions over the past three seasons. The 6.7-to-1 ratio leads the league by far among 35 quarterbacks with at least 17 starts over that span (Joe Burrow is next with a 4-1 ratio: 60 TDs, 15 INTs). The Ravens discussed an extension with Jackson this offseason but did not reach a deal. He will enter 2026 with a cap hit of $74.5 million, the second-to-last year of his contract. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati BengalsSigned through: 2029 | APY rank: T2 | EPA rank: N/AThe Bengals are 16-13 with Burrow in the lineup over the past three seasons, even though he has produced at a high level consistently while earning Tier 1 status from coaches and executives. Overcoming the Bengals’ leaky defense has been that difficult. Availability is the only concern for Burrow, who missed six games as a rookie, seven in 2023 and all but two this season. He returned to practice this week and will try to save Cincinnati’s season. We have a top-five QB for the short term Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles RamsSigned through: 2026 | APY rank: 16 | EPA rank: 4Stafford turns 38 in February and has had sometimes fraught contract negotiations in each of the past two offseasons, including once when the team let him explore trade opportunities. Concerns over his back issues during training camp dampened expectations entering this season, but Stafford has been available every week and is a leading MVP candidate with 25 touchdown passes and only two interceptions for the NFL’s fourth-ranked offense by EPA per play. Coaches and executives got it right when they voted him into Tier 1 for the first time in his career over the summer. We are having a harder time convincing others that we have a top-five QB signed long term Justin Herbert, Los Angeles ChargersSigned through: 2029 | APY rank: 9 | EPA rank: 19Coaches and executives voted Herbert into Tier 1 from 2022 to 2024, dropping him into Tier 2 this season in the absence of better team results, especially in the playoffs. One evaluator said this week he’d rather have Stafford than Herbert for the next two seasons because, in his view, Herbert has not shown the necessary refinement to belong in that top group. The Chargers are happy to have Herbert now and for the future. We’re happy with our established franchise QB Jared Goff, Detroit LionsSigned through: 2028 | APY rank: T7 | EPA rank: 1The Lions are tied with Philadelphia for the NFL’s best record (21-5) since signing Goff to an extension before last season. They rank second to Buffalo in offensive EPA per play since then and are fifth this season after losing offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago. Even with Detroit experiencing coordinator turbulence, including head coach Dan Campbell taking over play calling last week, Goff leads the league in EPA per pass play this season. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay BuccaneersSigned through: 2026 | APY rank: 19 | EPA rank: 15 Even with injuries slowing the Bucs this season, Tampa Bay’s offense with Mayfield in the lineup has been about as productive as it was over Tom Brady’s tenure with the team. That includes the same EPA per play (+0.4), a higher passer rating and a higher rate of passes gaining more than 15 yards. Mayfield has been more than a productive quarterback for Tampa Bay. He’s also an emotional leader and clearly their best option for the future. With his three-year, $100 million deal expiring after 2026, he could be due for a substantial raise on a new contract this offseason. Dak Prescott, Dallas CowboysSigned through: 2028 | APY rank: 1 | EPA rank: 10The Cowboys are 6-10-1 with Prescott in the lineup since they signed him to his latest extension before last season. That is mostly because only Jaxson Dart and Mac Jones have gotten worse support from their defenses among 34 qualifying quarterbacks over that span. For comparison, Burrow has an 11-8 starting record over that span while his defense has, on average, been just as bad (-8.3 EPA per start). (You can learn more about the Betrayal Index, a metric that was conceived to measure this dynamic, in the video below from last month.) Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia EaglesSigned through: 2028 | APY rank: 11 | EPA rank: 13You won’t find Hurts among the stat leaders in passing on a team that leans into the ground game behind an elite offensive line. But in two Super Bowls, he has 525 yards passing, 142 yards rushing, seven total touchdowns, two turnovers and a 109.4 passer rating with one Lombardi Trophy hoisted. He ranks second to Russell Wilson in EPA per pass play in Super Bowls among the eight QBs with more than one Super Bowl start this century. We can win with our guy, but how good is he? Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ersSigned through: 2030 | APY rank: T7 | EPA rank: 11Purdy has played in only two games since signing his contract extension in the offseason. An injury ended his rookie season as well, so long-term durability could be a concern. It’s almost too perfect that Purdy ranks 11th and backup Mac Jones ranks 12th in EPA per pass play this season. Coaches and executives think Purdy is better, but they also know the 49ers’ offense has been productive across a range of quarterbacks, including Jimmy Garoppolo. Jordan Love, Green Bay PackersSigned through: 2028 | APY rank: T2 | EPA rank: 6Love has 38 touchdown passes with 14 interceptions and the NFL’s sixth-best EPA per pass play (between Mahomes and Burrow) since signing his extension before last season. He’s the present and the future in Green Bay. This season has been bumpier than anticipated, with injuries affecting the line and some of Love’s top targets. The Packers are 0-3 with Love in the lineup this season when Green Bay’s opponent failed to reach 17 points. NFL teams have won those games 88 percent of the time over the past five seasons (Love was 5-0 in them last season). C.J. Stroud, Houston TexansSigned through: 2026 (team option for 2027) | APY rank: 29 | EPA rank: 16Stroud and the Texans have won a playoff game in each of his two full seasons as the starter, but they fired their offensive coordinator, Bobby Slowik, after ranking 24th in offensive EPA per play last season. They rank 25th this season, continue to have O-line problems and are winning with a defense that ranks fifth. Stroud becomes eligible for a new contract after this season. How high should the Texans go? Our veteran reclamation project is looking good Sam Darnold, Seattle SeahawksSigned through: 2027 | APY rank: 18 | EPA rank: 2Darnold has been even better for Seattle than he was during his breakout 2024 season with the Vikings. His sack rate is half what it was with Minnesota, while his yards per pass attempt (9.9) ranks second to 2000 Kurt Warner (10.0) among quarterbacks with at least 200 attempts through the first nine games of a season since 1970, per Pro Football Reference. It’s looking like Seattle has found its long-term starter. Daniel Jones, Indianapolis ColtsSigned through: 2025 | APY rank: 21 | EPA rank: 9Jones is where Darnold was one season ago in terms of reviving his career in a better situation. The big difference for Jones is there is no first-round rookie the team could prefer for the future (as Minnesota did with J.J. McCarthy) and no first-round draft choice for the team to consider using on an alternative anytime soon. Jones is in prime position to earn an extension from the Colts. Both sides have leverage, but will either side use it? All dressed up, no place to go Mac Jones, San Francisco 49ersSigned through: 2026 | APY rank: 48 | EPA rank: 12Jones is in a strange spot as a high-producing backup under contract through next season. The 49ers need him because Purdy has injury concerns. That makes a trade unlikely. Acquiring teams might also question whether they could get the production from Jones that 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan is getting from him. The one season Darnold spent with San Francisco before succeeding in Minnesota could be instructive. Jones, like Darnold, was not in favorable situations before landing with the 49ers. Hot stock: Buy! Drake Maye, New England PatriotsSigned through: 2027 (team option for 2028) | APY rank: 28 | EPA rank: 3Maye has the highest passer rating (116.9) through nine games for any qualifying second-year quarterback in NFL history, ahead of Patrick Mahomes and Ben Roethlisberger. Purdy, Carson Wentz and Jeff Garcia round out the top five, so let’s not order a gold jacket for Maye just yet, but all signs point to New England having found its successor to Brady. Hot stock: Hold Jayden Daniels, Washington CommandersSigned through: 2027 (team option for 2028) | APY rank: 27 | EPA rank: 21Daniels’ rookie season was so impressive, he broke the record Stroud held for the highest debut by a second-year player in Quarterback Tiers. Also like Stroud, Daniels has regressed in his second season with a team whose roster issues came to the fore. He has missed games this season with three separate injuries: a sprained knee, a strained hamstring and a dislocated elbow on his non-throwing arm. There’s a chance he could return for Week 13. Our opponents hope we stay the course Bryce Young, Carolina PanthersSigned through: 2026 (team option for 2027) | APY rank: 26 | EPA rank: 36Young has proven he’s better than he showed during his rookie season and first two games of 2024, but he hasn’t proven to be even an average starter from a production standpoint. Young is averaging 5.6 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 39th out of 40 quarterbacks with at least 70 attempts this season and is similar to his 5.5 average as a rookie. He becomes eligible for a contract extension after the season, but Carolina presumably will wait and consider its options. It’s looking like a long shot the Panthers will exercise their option for 2027 before the deadline in May. Geno Smith, Las Vegas RaidersSigned through: 2027 | APY rank: 17 | EPA rank: 34Smith did not forget how to play quarterback after leaving Seattle for Las Vegas. The situation with the Raiders is part of the issue. But he is 35 years old and struggling through the first year of a newly configured deal that runs through 2027 and pays him $58.5 million fully guaranteed. If the Raiders want to move on after one season, they would eat Smith’s $18.5 million guaranteed salary for 2026, unless they could find a team willing to trade Justin Fields, New York JetsSigned through: 2026 | APY rank: 20 | EPA rank: 31The Jets’ decision to pay $30 million fully guaranteed to Fields was odd at the time and regrettable now. Fields owns the NFL’s highest sack rate (12.3 percent) for an offense with only 22 completions gaining more than 15 yards, which is tied for seventh-worst through nine games out of 830 teams since 2000. Those are among the reasons the Jets loaded up on first-round picks for the purposes of landing their next QB. Financially stuck, but for how long? Tua Tagovailoa, Miami DolphinsSigned through: 2028 | APY rank: 6 | EPA rank: 24The Dolphins’ contract with Tagovailoa carries $54 million fully guaranteed salary for 2026, which might have cost general manager Chris Grier his job while extending the runway for coach Mike McDaniel, who has brought out the best in the quarterback to this point, albeit with diminishing returns of late. It’s looking like coach and QB might get one more year to regain their past trajectories. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville JaguarsSigned through: 2030 | APY rank: T2 | EPA rank: 32Lawrence ranks second to Prescott in annual average salary but 32nd in EPA per pass play, between Fields and Spencer Rattler, among 40 QBs with at least 200 attempts this season. His contract carries $37 million in fully guaranteed salary for 2026, a figure that is high but would not necessarily prevent the Jaguars — led by a coach and GM who didn’t draft Lawrence or sign him to his extension — from heading in another direction. Kyler Murray, Arizona CardinalsSigned through: 2028 | APY rank: 12 | EPA rank: 20The Cardinals’ decision to live or die with Jacoby Brissett before placing Murray on injured reserve signaled the likely end for Murray under the current staff. What happens after this season remains unknown. Murray’s contract carries $38 million in fully guaranteed salary for 2026. Trading him would likely require the Cardinals to eat much of that salary. Too early to say, but there’s been good with the bad Caleb Williams, Chicago BearsSigned through: 2027 (team option for 2028) | APY rank: 25 | EPA rank: 14The marriage between Williams and new coach Ben Johnson remains in its early stages, with some positive signs. Williams has cut his sack rate from 10.8 percent as a rookie to 4.6 percent this season, a shift that belies the fact he is scrambling at the same rate, completing about the same percentage of his passes and holding the ball even longer (3.16 average time to throw or sack, up from 2.84 as a rookie). Johnson presumably would like Williams to work toward playing on time more consistently. Bo Nix, Denver BroncosSigned through: 2027 (team option for 2028) | APY rank: 40 | EPA rank: 22The Broncos have won seven consecutive games with a mixture of defense and fourth-quarter heroics from Nix and the offense. It’s an unsustainable formula that is temporarily tabling more consequential discussions regarding Nix’s trajectory. The quarterback’s year-over-year efficiency has declined by almost every measure except for sack rate, which was already low. It’s looking like next season will be defining for Nix’s trajectory with the Broncos. Jaxson Dart, New York GiantsSigned through: 2028 (team option for 2029) | APY rank: 42 | EPA rank: 17Dart brought excitement and hope to the Giants’ offense while consistently putting his body at risk, as reflected in the four times he’s been tested for concussions since the preseason. Jameis Winston will start for the Giants against the Packers this week while Dart recovers from the concussion he suffered in Brian Daboll’s final game as head coach. Way too early to pass lasting judgment, but so far, not so great Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta FalconsSigned through: 2027 (team option for 2028) | APY rank: 37 | EPA rank: 30The Falcons are 4-1 in Penix’s starts when he completes at least 60 percent of his passes, compared to 0-6 in the rest of his games. The disparity highlights concerns with Penix’s accuracy and ability to put touch on his passes. Penix’s 58.8 percent completion rate this season ranks 35th out of 40 QBs with at least 70 attempts, ahead of only Dillon Gabriel, Davis Mills, Russell Wilson, Cam Ward and J.J. McCarthy. How this season finishes could determine how much the Falcons need to protect themselves at the position in the future. (Atlanta’s 2026 first-round pick, which is on track to be a top-10 selection, belongs to the Rams.) J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota VikingsSigned through: 2027 (team option for 2028) | APY rank: 38 | EPA rank: 39It’s been a rough start for McCarthy under intense scrutiny after the Vikings did not bring back Darnold or Jones, who are both shining for winning teams elsewhere. In four starts, McCarthy ranks last among 40 qualifying QBs in completion rate and passer rating and 39th in EPA per pass play. He would land in the next category if the early returns were not so extreme. McCarthy is in a tough spot. Cam Ward, Tennessee TitansSigned through: 2028 (team option for 2029) | APY rank: 23 | EPA rank: 38Ward has started every game for the Titans during a rough rookie season in which his coach relinquished play-calling duties after three games and lost his job three games after that. Tennessee has alternated firing its GM and head coach in four consecutive years, which could complicate Ward’s development and muddy his future. Dillon Gabriel, Cleveland BrownsSigned through: 2028 | APY rank: 59 | EPA rank: 37Gabriel has six total touchdowns with two turnovers and 17 sacks in five starts since taking over what might be the most cursed job in sports. He’s the seventh quarterback to make at least five starts for the Browns under coach Kevin Stefanski. Jacoby Brissett and Baker Mayfield are the only ones with passer ratings above 80 and positive EPA per pass play. Even earlier than way too early to pass judgment Tyler Shough, New Orleans SaintsSigned through: 2028 | APY rank: 51 | EPA rank: 27Shough was efficient in his second career start, a 17-7 victory over Carolina in Week 10. He averaged 10.4 yards per attempt and completed 70 percent of his passes without a turnover. The final seven games will influence what his role is entering next season, with the Saints tracking toward a top pick in the 2026 draft. Five years ’til Canton Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh SteelersSigned through: 2025 | APY rank: 22 | EPA rank: 26Rodgers and the Steelers remain atop the AFC North, but their lead has shrunk to a single game after three losses in four games. Rodgers is coming off one of the worst statistical games of his career in a 25-10 loss to the Chargers. He’s still having his best season since leaving the Packers, but at age 41, this could be it. |
