THE STATE OF QBs
Mike Sando of The Athletic with a deep dive on how the QB situation shakes out at all 32 teams.
Before we look at it, let’s make a list of teams that we would expect with some certainty to have the same starting QB 18 months from now –
Rams, 49ers, Seahawks, Chiefs, Chargers, Raiders (?), Bengals (if Burrow healthy), Ravens, Vikings (?), Texans, Titans (?), Panthers (?), Giants (?), Bills, Dolphins (?).
So more than half the league could turn over. Let’s see what Sando says:
Drew Brees has 40 touchdown passes with four interceptions in his past 16 starts. His New Orleans Saints have a 13-3 record in those games, with a 30-point scoring average. Those are incredible numbers for a quarterback who could be finished as a viable full-season starter if he decides to play past this season. In New England and Indianapolis, high-profile quarterback rentals face uncertain futures. In Atlanta and Detroit, well-established starters with Pro Bowl pedigrees appear likely to return unless changes in team leadership spur other plans. Rumors always seem to swirl around the San Francisco 49ers’ Jimmy Garoppolo and the Minnesota Vikings’ Kirk Cousins. Elsewhere, once-rising younger QBs could be playing their way out of town.
“I think Minnesota sticks with Kirk,” an NFL team exec said, “but I think the caveat is, there will be immense quarterback movement this coming offseason. Once you are outside the teams that are set at the position, who knows what opportunities may come your way that you cannot say ‘no’ to?”
There are more playoff races to watch as the regular season heads into December. Roughly one-third of the league’s teams could pursue new starting quarterbacks for 2021, injecting another kind of drama into the next six weeks. With input from NFL execs, I’ve placed all 32 teams into one of five buckets based on their current quarterback situations.
Priority watch list
What happens down the stretch could affect how these teams proceed. In every case, the teams could escape their quarterbacks’ contracts easily, adding a level of flexibility.
Indianapolis Colts
Current QBs: Philip Rivers, Jacoby Brissett, Jacob Eason
Projected draft order: No. 24
The Colts are competitive in the AFC more because of improved defense and special teams than because of their offseason signing of Rivers to a one-year, $25 million deal. The offense has provided 22.5 expected points added (EPA) through 10 games, the same figure as last season through 10 games. The defense and special teams are a combined 47 EPA better year over year, helping to produce a one-game improvement in the standings from this point in 2019. Rivers turns 39 in December. If he heats up and leads Indy deep into the playoffs, it could feel better about signing him for another season. But the prevailing view among evaluators holds that Rivers is too near the end for Indy to bet on him past this season. There will be other options. Coach Frank Reich has a history with Carson Wentz. The Colts might have selected Sam Darnold in 2018, but they traded out of the No. 3 slot because Andrew Luck was their man at the time. Might they have interest now?
“To me, Rivers is a complete unknown and if you are Indy, you know it is year to year,” an exec said. “If they made a run, Rivers could retire. Or, you could be like, ‘Oh, Indy is fine with Rivers,’ but now Indy is like, ‘Well, wait, we can get Sam Darnold for $4 million this year, Frank will coach him up and we have a high grade on him,’ or maybe Frank wants Carson Wentz or whatever. That is where the wrong domino sends everything in a different way.”
New England Patriots
Current QBs: Cam Newton, Jarrett Stidham, Brian Hoyer
Projected draft order: No. 13
Newton started this season decently, fell off after contracting COVID-19, then stabilized in recent weeks. An especially strong finish from him could give New England some incentive to explore continuing the relationship beyond this season, although coaches and execs are skeptical of the Patriots’ interest. Newton, a bargain on a one-year deal worth $1.75 million, has so far avoided the injuries that precipitated his exit from Carolina. Three factors seem relevant to any evaluation: Newton’s physical outlook, the Patriots’ unusually poor supporting cast of receivers and how New England wants to structure its offense for the long term.
“I know they are singing his praises, but he is up and down,” an evaluator said. “Is Bill (Belichick) really going to hang his hat and pay him?”
Newton, over the Patriots’ past four games, ranks fifth in EPA per pass attempt, including No. 1 when targeting wide receivers. He ranks fourth over that span in yards per attempt but is tied for last with two touchdown passes.
New Orleans Saints
Current QBs: Drew Brees (IR), Taysom Hill, Jameis Winston, Trevor Siemian
Projected draft order: No. 31
Brees missed five games to injury in 2019, and now he’s out again, this time with 11 fractured ribs and a collapsed lung. Betting markets favor Brees retiring after this season. Coaches and evaluators who watched the tape from Hill’s initial start saw a player who was inaccurate on deep passes, failed on the one play where he had to read the defense and completed a series of well-schemed shorter passes. They see Hill as a player who expands the playbook for coach Sean Payton when used in tandem with a conventional quarterback but limits that playbook when he’s the primary quarterback. Brees and Winston do not have contracts past this season. Hill’s deal carries more than $7 million in guarantees in 2021.
San Francisco 49ers
Current QBs: Jimmy Garoppolo (IR), Nick Mullens, C.J. Beathard
Projected draft order: No. 15
The 49ers cannot be certain whether Garoppolo will play for them again this season. The long-term future is also a little murky. Garoppolo, sidelined by a high ankle sprain, has missed games to injury in three of the four seasons he’s had opportunities to start.
“I would put the 49ers in this group solely because it depends on the options,” an exec said. “Do I see them moving on from Garoppolo? No. Could they if they had the right option? This whole category, it is likely these teams wind up shaking it up and switching between each other.”
Garoppolo’s deal has a no-trade clause, so shipping him to another team would require his approval. The 49ers have generally won with Garoppolo in the lineup, but if they cannot count on him to play and if a shrinking salary cap in 2021 leads San Francisco to consider reallocating resources, the $24.1 million in base salary scheduled for Garoppolo might be better spent another way. The 49ers would gain that full amount in cap room by releasing Garoppolo while eating less than $3 million in dead money. But there are no guarantees they could find a superior and cost-effective alternative. They might prefer Garoppolo to potential free-agent alternatives such as Brissett, Mitch Trubisky, Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Andy Dalton, Newton, Winston and Joe Flacco. They might be selecting a little late to choose their preferred quarterback in the draft. Acquiring Cousins, a known Shanahan favorite, from Minnesota would require that the Vikings be a willing trade partner. They might not be one.
Denver Broncos
Current QBs: Drew Lock, Brett Rypien, Jeff Driskel
Projected draft order: No. 12
Execs debated whether the Broncos belonged in this category or the next one.
“I think Lock is there (as the starter in 2021),” an exec said. “If you are them, Courtland Sutton is out. I think Lock may be up and down, but I don’t see (general manager John) Elway moving on.”
Lock is one of 36 quarterbacks to make more than 10 starts since the start of last season. He ranks last among them in EPA per pass attempt and passer rating. Denver plays the third-toughest remaining schedule in terms of opponent winning percentage. If Lock goes from statistically bad to worse over those remaining games and Denver slips further in the standings, it’s easier to envision the Broncos considering alternatives — especially if there are any leadership changes for a franchise navigating ownership issues.
“I put them in (the) intriguing bucket,” another exec said. “The good thing for them is, they took (Lock) in (the) second round, so the spotlight is not overly bright.”
Probably set, with some questions
It’s likely these teams’ quarterbacks will return to start in Week 1, but there are some questions worth addressing.
Philadelphia Eagles
Current quarterbacks: Carson Wentz, Nate Sudfeld, Jalen Hurts
Projected draft order: No. 14
The Eagles’ financial commitment to Wentz all but assures his place on the team next season. If there are significant organizational changes, execs suspect those changes would affect the coaching situation more than they would the quarterback.
Carolina Panthers
Current quarterbacks: Teddy Bridgewater, P.J. Walker, Will Grier
Projected draft order: No. 8
Bridgewater’s deal carries $10 million in guarantees next season. The Panthers seem happy with him. Their immediate future would seem to include Bridgewater as the 2021 Week 1 starter.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current quarterbacks: Tom Brady, Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Griffin
Projected draft order: No. 23
Brady isn’t going anywhere next season. His contract is fully guaranteed, including $25 million in 2021. If the Buccaneers’ season falls apart, the quarterback won’t be the scapegoat.
“Brady sells tickets and makes them relevant,” an exec said. “They are not moving on from Tom.”
Cleveland Browns
Current quarterbacks: Baker Mayfield, Case Keenum
Projected draft order: No. 19
The current coach and general manager were not involved in drafting Mayfield first in 2018. They could be less invested in him as a result. But with the Browns on pace for their first winning season since 2007, a change at quarterback would come as a surprise.
“I think Mayfield is set there,” an exec said. “Mayfield is so cheap. Why wouldn’t you just do it another year? Maybe they put him on notice next year, but I just don’t see this year.”
Minnesota Vikings
Current quarterbacks: Kirk Cousins, Sean Mannion
Projected draft order: No. 16
Cousins’ 2021 salary ($21 million) is already guaranteed. His 2022 salary ($35 million) becomes guaranteed in March. The Vikings could trade him. The 49ers would be natural suitors based on Shanahan’s known affinity for Cousins. There are few indications that might actually happen, however.
New York Giants
Current quarterbacks: Daniel Jones, Colt McCoy
Projected draft order: No. 11
The Giants might jump into the first group of teams if they hire a new general manager or if Jones craters over the final six games.
“If there is a new GM, then I think there’s a greater chance it’s over or it’s one year and they draft another guy,” an evaluator said. “There are a lot of teams that had (Jones) as a backup.”
Jones was the sixth pick in 2019. Among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, only Winston has committed turnovers on a higher percentage of passing and rushing plays than Jones since the start of last season.
“I think they are probably set, but it depends on, is there anybody they can get that they know right now is better?” an exec said. “I presume that answer is no.”
Dallas Cowboys
Current quarterbacks: Dak Prescott (IR), Andy Dalton, Garrett Gilbert, Ben DiNucci
Projected draft order: No. 9
The Cowboys keep saying Prescott is their guy for the future, but there’s at least some uncertainty until the sides reach an agreement on a contract. Prescott’s ankle injury is another variable.
“Does he still play hardball for $35-40 million?” an exec asked. “What if they said, ‘We are trading for (Matthew) Stafford or some vet that has produced but has not had much around him’? What if they moved on and got a compensatory third (for Prescott)? They are committing to him, but why couldn’t they get a deal done?”
Probably set, unless new coach/GM combos want to start over
The Falcons are looking for a new coach and GM. The Lions could be in the near future.
Atlanta Falcons
Current quarterbacks: Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub
Projected draft order: No. 5
Ryan is still productive, seems to enjoy the support of ownership and has a contract that would be difficult to move from a salary-cap standpoint. All signs point to his return as the starter, but until the Falcons hire a new coach and GM, there is some uncertainty.
Detroit Lions
Current quarterbacks: Matthew Stafford, Chase Daniel, David Blough
Projected draft order: No. 10
Stafford’s contract would be much easier to trade than Ryan’s. Unlike Ryan, who has taken his team to a Super Bowl as a league MVP and has a winning record as a starter, Stafford could be generally associated with his team’s sustained futility. Those factors could more plausibly lead a new regime to seek sweeping changes that included a switch at quarterback.
Obviously must address the position
These teams almost certainly need to seek new quarterbacks.
Chicago Bears
Current quarterbacks: Nick Foles, Mitch Trubisky
Projected draft order: No. 17
Trubisky is down to the final games of his rookie contract. The Bears owe money to Foles in the future, but not enough to prohibit them from investing in another starter. Only the Jets average fewer offensive points per game than the Bears. Only the Jets and Broncos average fewer EPA per pass attempt.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Current quarterbacks: Gardner Minshew, Mike Glennon, Jake Luton
Projected draft order: No. 2
Blaine Gabbert and Blake Bortles are the only quarterbacks Jacksonville has drafted in the first five rounds over the past 10 years. They’ve drafted four others in the sixth round, including Minshew and Luton. That presumably changes in 2021, even though Minshew has provided an upgrade. The Jaguars have gone 7-12 while averaging 19.1 offensive points per game in 19 starts by Minshew. They were 2-17 while averaging 13.3 offensive points per game in their past 19 starts with other quarterbacks in the lineup.
New York Jets
Current quarterbacks: Sam Darnold, Joe Flacco, James Morgan
Projected draft order: No. 1
There’s still time for Darnold to return from injury and get something going before the season’s end, but for the Jets, the opportunity cost of holding the No. 1 choice (most likely) and not using it for a quarterback could be too great.
“The only exception I put on the Jets is, if they hire a new coach who comes in and is like, ‘I’d rather have four first-round picks and Sam Darnold than Trevor Lawrence,’ that is the only thing that could change it,” an exec said.
Washington Football Team
Current quarterbacks: Alex Smith, Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen (IR)
Projected draft order: No. 7
Washington obviously does not think Haskins is the answer. Allen projects as a backup. Smith will be 37 next season, and it’s unclear how much of his pre-injury form he might recapture.
All set for 2021
These teams’ starting quarterbacks appear set for next season.
Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray’s future appears bright. The present isn’t bad, either.
Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson will be 24 heading into next season.
Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen’s production has improved every season.
Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow could be back from his knee injury in time for the opener.
Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers’ play this season pushes back the Jordan Love alternative.
Houston Texans: Deshaun Watson’s contract and performance leave no doubt about the future in Houston.
Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes is signed through the 2031 season.
Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert is the betting favorite for NFL rookie of the year.
Los Angeles Rams: Jared Goff’s contract, performance and team success ensure his status for next season.
Las Vegas Raiders: Derek Carr has hit stride in his third season with coach Jon Gruden.
Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa’s recent benching doesn’t change anything for next season. He’s the presumed starter.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Drafting a potential successor could make sense, but it should be Ben Roethlisberger’s team in 2021.
Seattle Seahawks: Russell Wilson’s deal runs through 2023, his age-34 season.
Tennessee Titans: Ryan Tannehill’s $24.5 million salary for 2021 is guaranteed. The Titans have averaged 27.8 offensive points per game in his starts, up from 20.6 in Marcus Mariota’s starts.
Sando has 14 teams as all set, 9 either “priority watch list” or “must address” and 9 others somewhere in the middle.
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